Qantas~ A Business in Decline
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Qantas~ A Business in Decline
Qantas' International Wreckage
Stephen Bartholomeusz
Alan Joyce has sounded an alarm about the position of Qantas’ international business and by implication foreshadowed major changes to his group’s network and strategies.
In an address to the Melbourne Press Club today the Qantas chief executive made the point that while Qantas’ twin-brand domestic business was very strong and profitable and there was a tremendous opportunity for the Jetstar brand in particular in Asia – Jetstar is the biggest low-cost carrier by revenue in the region already and is growing rapidly – Qantas International was, financially, falling ‘significantly short’’ of where it should be.
While he didn’t say it, it is probable that the international business is losing money despite the rebound in international aviation last year.
Joyce said capacity had flooded into Australia from China, the Middle East and elsewhere with the total growth in direct aviation capacity to Australia rising 39 per cent between 2003 and 2009 despite an increase in total inbound passenger growth of only 10 per cent.
"So that tells us these carriers are not growing the market but simply taking existing demand," he said. As a consequence, Qantas International’s market share had fallen from 35 per cent to 20 per cent.
"As an end-of-the-line carrier serving a market of 22 million people, in a market flooded with so much capacity that our competitors aren’t even using their full quota, we face severe limits to growth," he said.
With the majority of the group’s assets and capital expenditures devoted to its international business that’s not a sustainable position and Joyce said that if Qantas International continued on its current path there would be a real question mark over its viability. He has established a task force headed by one of its most senior executives, Lesley Grant, to explore the options for the business.
One of those options would obviously be a continuation of the existing strategy of using the lower cost Jetstar to displace the Qantas brand and product on unprofitable routes.
Another is to exploit the ability to push more volume through its network, and reduce costs, through the virtual joint ventures it has established or is seeking to establish with its OneWorld allies, particularly British Airways/Iberia and American Airlines.
Joyce also sees an opportunity for his premium brand and Qantas’ freight business in Asia.
Qantas will get a significant reduction in operating and maintenance costs, and a big improvement in fuel efficiency, once it has its full fleet of A380s and the much-delayed B787 Dreamliners in place. The 787s are now scheduled to start arriving towards the end of next year.
It is apparent from the stark nature of Joyce’s warnings about the outlook for Qantas International under the status quo, however, that he is contemplating the prospect of radical changes to create more sustainable foundations for a business that is operating in an inherently uncommercial environment.
It was a convenient illustration of the challenges Qantas faces, albeit a coincidental one, that earlier in the day the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission gave Virgin Blue its final five-year authorisation of its proposed alliance with Etihad Airways, clearing the way for the crucial plank in John Borghetti’s vision of a virtual international network.
While the deal doesn’t give Virgin Blue access to Qantas’ heartland – the key European ports of London and to a lesser extent Frankfurt – it will divert volume at the margin because the alliance will give Virgin Blue passengers direct access to lesser European destinations. There will also be a domestic market impact as Etihad directs its volume onto Virgin Blue’s domestic network.
Virgin Blue has another alliance with Air New Zealand on the trans-Tasman and is trying to obtain US regulatory clearance for a similar alliance with Delta Air Lines on the trans-Pacific, where the entry of Virgin Blue’s V Australia and Delta have decimated the profitability of what was once one of Qantas International’s most profitable routes. Competition from Asian and Middle East carriers has also undermined the profitability of the key Kangaroo route between Australia and the UK.
Faced with the 360 degree attack on its international business, Qantas at least has Jetstar with which to respond. Jetstar Asia is expanding from its Singapore hub at a frenetic pace as it sees to emerge from the "land grab" that is occurring as the dominant player.
The experience with low cost carriers elsewhere is that first movers have a major advantage that can be turned and cemented into dominance if they are able to create and maintain the biggest network.
That aids the group but doesn’t tackle the problems faced by the core premium brand. Given the structural deficiencies in the global industry and the barriers to the consolidation and capacity rationalisation that would address them, it is going to be a challenging exercise to devise a strategy that enables Qantas to maintain a meaningful international business capable of generating sustainable returns.
Stephen Bartholomeusz
Alan Joyce has sounded an alarm about the position of Qantas’ international business and by implication foreshadowed major changes to his group’s network and strategies.
In an address to the Melbourne Press Club today the Qantas chief executive made the point that while Qantas’ twin-brand domestic business was very strong and profitable and there was a tremendous opportunity for the Jetstar brand in particular in Asia – Jetstar is the biggest low-cost carrier by revenue in the region already and is growing rapidly – Qantas International was, financially, falling ‘significantly short’’ of where it should be.
While he didn’t say it, it is probable that the international business is losing money despite the rebound in international aviation last year.
Joyce said capacity had flooded into Australia from China, the Middle East and elsewhere with the total growth in direct aviation capacity to Australia rising 39 per cent between 2003 and 2009 despite an increase in total inbound passenger growth of only 10 per cent.
"So that tells us these carriers are not growing the market but simply taking existing demand," he said. As a consequence, Qantas International’s market share had fallen from 35 per cent to 20 per cent.
"As an end-of-the-line carrier serving a market of 22 million people, in a market flooded with so much capacity that our competitors aren’t even using their full quota, we face severe limits to growth," he said.
With the majority of the group’s assets and capital expenditures devoted to its international business that’s not a sustainable position and Joyce said that if Qantas International continued on its current path there would be a real question mark over its viability. He has established a task force headed by one of its most senior executives, Lesley Grant, to explore the options for the business.
One of those options would obviously be a continuation of the existing strategy of using the lower cost Jetstar to displace the Qantas brand and product on unprofitable routes.
Another is to exploit the ability to push more volume through its network, and reduce costs, through the virtual joint ventures it has established or is seeking to establish with its OneWorld allies, particularly British Airways/Iberia and American Airlines.
Joyce also sees an opportunity for his premium brand and Qantas’ freight business in Asia.
Qantas will get a significant reduction in operating and maintenance costs, and a big improvement in fuel efficiency, once it has its full fleet of A380s and the much-delayed B787 Dreamliners in place. The 787s are now scheduled to start arriving towards the end of next year.
It is apparent from the stark nature of Joyce’s warnings about the outlook for Qantas International under the status quo, however, that he is contemplating the prospect of radical changes to create more sustainable foundations for a business that is operating in an inherently uncommercial environment.
It was a convenient illustration of the challenges Qantas faces, albeit a coincidental one, that earlier in the day the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission gave Virgin Blue its final five-year authorisation of its proposed alliance with Etihad Airways, clearing the way for the crucial plank in John Borghetti’s vision of a virtual international network.
While the deal doesn’t give Virgin Blue access to Qantas’ heartland – the key European ports of London and to a lesser extent Frankfurt – it will divert volume at the margin because the alliance will give Virgin Blue passengers direct access to lesser European destinations. There will also be a domestic market impact as Etihad directs its volume onto Virgin Blue’s domestic network.
Virgin Blue has another alliance with Air New Zealand on the trans-Tasman and is trying to obtain US regulatory clearance for a similar alliance with Delta Air Lines on the trans-Pacific, where the entry of Virgin Blue’s V Australia and Delta have decimated the profitability of what was once one of Qantas International’s most profitable routes. Competition from Asian and Middle East carriers has also undermined the profitability of the key Kangaroo route between Australia and the UK.
Faced with the 360 degree attack on its international business, Qantas at least has Jetstar with which to respond. Jetstar Asia is expanding from its Singapore hub at a frenetic pace as it sees to emerge from the "land grab" that is occurring as the dominant player.
The experience with low cost carriers elsewhere is that first movers have a major advantage that can be turned and cemented into dominance if they are able to create and maintain the biggest network.
That aids the group but doesn’t tackle the problems faced by the core premium brand. Given the structural deficiencies in the global industry and the barriers to the consolidation and capacity rationalisation that would address them, it is going to be a challenging exercise to devise a strategy that enables Qantas to maintain a meaningful international business capable of generating sustainable returns.
I wonder why they are losing to the middle eastern carriers? Could it be they don't have the right equipment?
No-one to blame but themselves.
They put it in a loss making position, and now they are saying it's the groups fault and will punish it by pushing in Jetstar???
Bloody hell.....
You've got to spend money fellas to get back your market share.
No-one to blame but themselves.
They put it in a loss making position, and now they are saying it's the groups fault and will punish it by pushing in Jetstar???
Bloody hell.....
You've got to spend money fellas to get back your market share.
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Actually when you read Joyce's comments about the Qantas Intl operation he mentions they have set up a group who are looking at investing more money, and growing the intl network into new markets.
Interesting to see if it happens.....
Interesting to see if it happens.....
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Premium price for an ordinary service. Who would blame the business international market or even the economy passengers in choosing something that has a better service with a lessor ticket price (eg. Cathay, singapore, emirates...etc)
Joyce doesn't have a choice here, he has to be seen as doing something as he is looking like he is increasingly out of his depth.
I think the board are getting worried about the direction at Qantas, and what is being done to the airline and brand. Whether it is justified or not there has been a lot of damage done to the airline in the eyes of the travelling public. The lack of direction in the airline at the moment is monumental. They are stumbling from one disaster to another, and it is making the board look like fools. A declining leisure market hurting Jetstar and increased buisness and international competition hurting Qantas.......whats a CEO to do? Isn't AJ's 3 year contract up soon?
I think the board are getting worried about the direction at Qantas, and what is being done to the airline and brand. Whether it is justified or not there has been a lot of damage done to the airline in the eyes of the travelling public. The lack of direction in the airline at the moment is monumental. They are stumbling from one disaster to another, and it is making the board look like fools. A declining leisure market hurting Jetstar and increased buisness and international competition hurting Qantas.......whats a CEO to do? Isn't AJ's 3 year contract up soon?
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Upcoming EBAs
Qantas management knows only one thing and that is cutting costs by reducing wages.It is not and has not been a business run to generate profit for years.By cutting costs it has compromised the product,pissed off the customers,disengaged the employees,deprived shareholders of a dividend and allowed competitors open slather.It took ten years to almost destroy the business.It will take 20 years to resuscitate it.
Upcoming EBAs are going to be tough and if Unions aren't compliant there will be more outsourcing,offshoring and Jetstaring.
Unfortunately for Joyce he needs to re engage his staff.He needs to look closely at how an American Carrier has done exactly that.He also needs a management cleanout.Many of the middle and senior execs have been there since Dixon took over.
Fresh blood.Fresh ideas and fresh enthusiasim.The employees have an enormous pent up loyalty and good will for the icon.Someone smart needs to tap into to it.
Remove the punitive culture and replace it with an inclusive professional contemporary service oriented culture and then wait.
It wont happen overnight but it will happen
Upcoming EBAs are going to be tough and if Unions aren't compliant there will be more outsourcing,offshoring and Jetstaring.
Unfortunately for Joyce he needs to re engage his staff.He needs to look closely at how an American Carrier has done exactly that.He also needs a management cleanout.Many of the middle and senior execs have been there since Dixon took over.
Fresh blood.Fresh ideas and fresh enthusiasim.The employees have an enormous pent up loyalty and good will for the icon.Someone smart needs to tap into to it.
Remove the punitive culture and replace it with an inclusive professional contemporary service oriented culture and then wait.
It wont happen overnight but it will happen
Whispering "T" Jet
.......................foreshadowed major changes to his group’s network and strategies.
Is this a severe case of a bad carpenter blaming his tools! The previous goose didnt purchase the 777 and Joyce has been there just over 2 years and nothing has changed. Two ports in Europe , not a hope there against many other carriers who offer not only 15/25 destinations but also 2/3 services a day from Syd/Mlb/Bne and also have full flat business class seats. 747-400s that should have been refurb 3 years ago but dont start until August this year. The business class seat is the only one to Lax direct that doesnt go flat and an IFE thats awful. 737s across to New Zealand the customers hate them but hey who cares , this is Qantas, take it or leave it. And leave it they are, in droves. The 330 an improvement on the poor old 767 internationally but again the incorrect business class seat and trying to do sectors its not built for (Lax/Akl with 30 odd seat blocked out). All in all Mr Joyce, like your predecessor a total failure, the only difference is that you havnt been paid $47 million plus had $100 million odd in fines on your watch.
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Dixon's Legacy
Old Scrotum Face turned a great airline into a poor business and walked away with a small fortune.
How does a company employee manage to do that and escape accountability?
Something is very very wrong here
How does a company employee manage to do that and escape accountability?
Something is very very wrong here
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Qantas will get a significant reduction in operating and maintenance costs, and a big improvement in fuel efficiency, once it has its full fleet of A380s and the much-delayed B787 Dreamliners in place. The 787s are now scheduled to start arriving towards the end of next year.
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Well at last the greatest management team in the world have now acknowledged what has been on this site for a very long time.
The question is whether it is all real or pre EBA so they can maximise their bonuses this year or they are planning a Crapstar expansion.
This lot have done nothing strategic in two years other than spin, so why do you think it is that ME carriers are attacking.
If the rat was strong, renamed Borghetti Int or had a vision for the future they wouldn't get a leg in.
Only themselves and the Board to blame. They had a chance post the raping and pillaging era and they blew it and now it is all our fault for not supporting them, I can see it coming now.
I want them to be strong, I want them to succeed and I want them to run all other players out of town but I wont fly what they are offering even with some great CC.
This is not a staff problem it is a management one and they don't seem to get it that we are talking about THEM.
I live in hope!!!
The question is whether it is all real or pre EBA so they can maximise their bonuses this year or they are planning a Crapstar expansion.
This lot have done nothing strategic in two years other than spin, so why do you think it is that ME carriers are attacking.
If the rat was strong, renamed Borghetti Int or had a vision for the future they wouldn't get a leg in.
Only themselves and the Board to blame. They had a chance post the raping and pillaging era and they blew it and now it is all our fault for not supporting them, I can see it coming now.
I want them to be strong, I want them to succeed and I want them to run all other players out of town but I wont fly what they are offering even with some great CC.
This is not a staff problem it is a management one and they don't seem to get it that we are talking about THEM.
I live in hope!!!
Ben Sandilands thoughts on the comic tragedy that is Qantas Mismanagement.
Just what bad news is Qantas preparing us for?
February 3, 2011 – 8:41 pm, by Ben Sandilands
Only 14 days before the Qantas half year to December 31 results are released its CEO Alan Joyce has raised a few eyebrows concerning ‘what we are about to receive’ in an address to the Melbourne Press Club today.
Stephen Bartholomeusz at Business Spectator (part of the portfolio of on line publications that hosts Plane Talking) went directly to the point in his report today.
Alan Joyce has sounded an alarm about the position of Qantas’ international business and by implication foreshadowed major changes to his group’s network and strategies.In an address to the Melbourne Press Club today the Qantas chief executive made the point that while Qantas’ twin-brand domestic business was very strong and profitable and there was a tremendous opportunity for the Jetstar brand in particular in Asia – Jetstar is the biggest low-cost carrier by revenue in the region already and is growing rapidly – Qantas International was, financially, falling ‘significantly short’’ of where it should be.
While he didn’t say it, it is probable that the international business is losing money despite the rebound in international aviation last year.
When the CEO of a major brand, and a stock followed by many institutional investors, says, as Bartholomeusz points out, that a major part of its business isn’t looking viable, the timing of that guidance cannot fail to be significant.
Joyce said that if Qantas International continued on its current path there would be a real question mark over its viability.
He has also embraced Qantas CEO tradition by blaming geography and the competition from the likes of Singapore Airlines and Emirates, yet made in the delivered speech only passing reference to some of the core problems for which he and his immediate predecessors are responsible.
There is no doubt Qantas was right to select the Boeing 787 Dreamliner as the principal change driver in its network, product and operational efficiencies on the deal presented to it at the end of 2005.
But the neglect of its fleet strategy when it became really painfully obvious in 2008 that the project was in trouble is unforgivable. Qantas is stuck with 747s that are less reliable and more costly to maintain as they age well behind their scrap date, and this is true for its 767s too.
There were good accounting arguments for getting rid of its engine shop that looked after the Rolls-Royce engines on most of those 747s in favor of a Rolls-Royce centre of ‘excellence’ in Hong Kong. But the arguments were never informed by the ability of the Qantas Rolls-Royce RB211 shop to make those engines work superbly well under the service conditions required by the long range operations that characterise its Qantas 747 services more than those of any other carrier.
Qantas failed to test its cost cutting solutions against the needs of preserving its brand reputation and operational excellence. It is questionable what net benefits it has achieved when other carriers have managed to achieve efficiencies with strategies that were more fleet and product focused. And which did not appear to be tied to an annual bonus centric management culture.
What Qantas has done with the outsourcing of the heavy maintenance of the RB-211s amounts to self harm, and thanks to the continued delays to the 787, they are going to be a risk to the brand for some time to come, as are the ancient Cityflyer 767s.
Qantas has also been reluctant to improve its network to provide one stop flights to a wide range of European cities, clinging to a policy of expecting customers to backtrack to continental cities via London Heathrow. Which is downright nasty.
Later this month Virgin Blue’s V Australia long haul operation leaps over Qantas in this regard by sending 777s to Abu Dhabi to connect to continental and other middle eastern and central Asian cities on Etihad flights.
Jetstar has recently announced that it will offer full service meals and baggage allowances for no extra charge to passengers making connections to many of its flights in Singapore and through oneworld alliance codeshares in general. This is capable of being interpreted as a strategy to upgrade its low cost unit to a competitive standard, which would be a very popular outcome.
But that leaves even the more loyal Qantas customers to ponder just what the role of the parent airline is really going to be in a few years time.
It is quite apparent that Joyce is looking for a change of trajectory for Qantas, notwithstanding the success claimed for a cross subsidised Jetstar that is eating the guts out of the parent carrier.
Where will this end?
February 3, 2011 – 8:41 pm, by Ben Sandilands
Only 14 days before the Qantas half year to December 31 results are released its CEO Alan Joyce has raised a few eyebrows concerning ‘what we are about to receive’ in an address to the Melbourne Press Club today.
Stephen Bartholomeusz at Business Spectator (part of the portfolio of on line publications that hosts Plane Talking) went directly to the point in his report today.
Alan Joyce has sounded an alarm about the position of Qantas’ international business and by implication foreshadowed major changes to his group’s network and strategies.In an address to the Melbourne Press Club today the Qantas chief executive made the point that while Qantas’ twin-brand domestic business was very strong and profitable and there was a tremendous opportunity for the Jetstar brand in particular in Asia – Jetstar is the biggest low-cost carrier by revenue in the region already and is growing rapidly – Qantas International was, financially, falling ‘significantly short’’ of where it should be.
While he didn’t say it, it is probable that the international business is losing money despite the rebound in international aviation last year.
When the CEO of a major brand, and a stock followed by many institutional investors, says, as Bartholomeusz points out, that a major part of its business isn’t looking viable, the timing of that guidance cannot fail to be significant.
Joyce said that if Qantas International continued on its current path there would be a real question mark over its viability.
He has also embraced Qantas CEO tradition by blaming geography and the competition from the likes of Singapore Airlines and Emirates, yet made in the delivered speech only passing reference to some of the core problems for which he and his immediate predecessors are responsible.
There is no doubt Qantas was right to select the Boeing 787 Dreamliner as the principal change driver in its network, product and operational efficiencies on the deal presented to it at the end of 2005.
But the neglect of its fleet strategy when it became really painfully obvious in 2008 that the project was in trouble is unforgivable. Qantas is stuck with 747s that are less reliable and more costly to maintain as they age well behind their scrap date, and this is true for its 767s too.
There were good accounting arguments for getting rid of its engine shop that looked after the Rolls-Royce engines on most of those 747s in favor of a Rolls-Royce centre of ‘excellence’ in Hong Kong. But the arguments were never informed by the ability of the Qantas Rolls-Royce RB211 shop to make those engines work superbly well under the service conditions required by the long range operations that characterise its Qantas 747 services more than those of any other carrier.
Qantas failed to test its cost cutting solutions against the needs of preserving its brand reputation and operational excellence. It is questionable what net benefits it has achieved when other carriers have managed to achieve efficiencies with strategies that were more fleet and product focused. And which did not appear to be tied to an annual bonus centric management culture.
What Qantas has done with the outsourcing of the heavy maintenance of the RB-211s amounts to self harm, and thanks to the continued delays to the 787, they are going to be a risk to the brand for some time to come, as are the ancient Cityflyer 767s.
Qantas has also been reluctant to improve its network to provide one stop flights to a wide range of European cities, clinging to a policy of expecting customers to backtrack to continental cities via London Heathrow. Which is downright nasty.
Later this month Virgin Blue’s V Australia long haul operation leaps over Qantas in this regard by sending 777s to Abu Dhabi to connect to continental and other middle eastern and central Asian cities on Etihad flights.
Jetstar has recently announced that it will offer full service meals and baggage allowances for no extra charge to passengers making connections to many of its flights in Singapore and through oneworld alliance codeshares in general. This is capable of being interpreted as a strategy to upgrade its low cost unit to a competitive standard, which would be a very popular outcome.
But that leaves even the more loyal Qantas customers to ponder just what the role of the parent airline is really going to be in a few years time.
It is quite apparent that Joyce is looking for a change of trajectory for Qantas, notwithstanding the success claimed for a cross subsidised Jetstar that is eating the guts out of the parent carrier.
Where will this end?
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the Qantas chief executive made the point that while Qantas’ twin-brand domestic business was very strong and profitable and there was a tremendous opportunity for the Jetstar brand in particular in Asia – Jetstar is the biggest low-cost carrier by revenue in the region already and is growing rapidly – Qantas International was, financially, falling ‘significantly short’’ of where it should be.
Joyce has been there just over 2 years and nothing has changed. Two ports in Europe , not a hope there against many other carriers who offer not only 15/25 destinations but also 2/3 services a day from Syd/Mlb/Bne
As time went by with the advent of J* Asia, my friend glad of the extra business provided by Qantas on the FRA sector suggested that it would be good if J* serviced Chiang Mai direct from Australia and moved some QF mainline flights back via BKK from SIN. His reason, Some major European airlines once served BKK and SIN using the same aircraft. The BKK SIN sectors became unprofitable and were dropped. Also his data suggested Singapore as a tourist destination has lost its shine in preference to Thailand Cambodia and Vietnam. BKK had became a better transit point for these growing markets. I asked "why J* to Chiang Mai?" The answer, J* looks good in SIN with the setup it has, he simply believed if J* was already serving SIN BKK why not connect with CNX and have the best of both worlds, the premium and the leisure markets operating via two of SE Asia's major hubs, SIN and BKK. J* could expand one stops from CNX & SIN.
I think we all agree, QF International is an icon airline in the aviation world, built up over the years by some "proud old builders," sure it has been through some bad patches over its long history, but not like we have had to endure over the past seven or eight years (imho; directionless me me me management) leading to the market share it has today, a smidgen under 20%.
QF & J * are totally different products and should be treated as such.
that's my two cents worth. cheers
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Qantas Exodus
Why have all the smart QF managers left?.
Roger Lindeman being possibly the smartest.
The smart managerial talent has left and gone primarily to Virgin.
They left because they have seen the writing on the wall.
Go back over the qantas threads on PPrune over the last few years.
Most of these threads were initiated by Qantas employees who could see from their grass roots vantage point that things were detiorating.
No one really listended
They are bloody well listening now
Its too bloody late
Roger Lindeman being possibly the smartest.
The smart managerial talent has left and gone primarily to Virgin.
They left because they have seen the writing on the wall.
Go back over the qantas threads on PPrune over the last few years.
Most of these threads were initiated by Qantas employees who could see from their grass roots vantage point that things were detiorating.
No one really listended
They are bloody well listening now
Its too bloody late
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Stating The Far King Obvious
Joyce said the Qantas Group had set up a task force to explore options that would invigorate the business, generate new and profitable markets, and protect jobs and assets. "Qantas is a great international airline. It is time we looked at opportunities to become a great global airline."
This guy has a PHd in pure maths and he spits out crap like that!!
No wonder the joint is in trouble
The guys in transport could have told him that five years ago
This guy has a PHd in pure maths and he spits out crap like that!!
No wonder the joint is in trouble
The guys in transport could have told him that five years ago
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This is where serious moves will be made to start winding Q international up and, at the same time, expanding Jstar.
And sometime soon, Jstar will start flying a premium international service under the Qantas livery.
That is the only conclusion I can draw from that speech.
And sometime soon, Jstar will start flying a premium international service under the Qantas livery.
That is the only conclusion I can draw from that speech.
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...still single,
Is this the way the present Management see the way around the Sale of Qantas Act which restricts Qantas but apparently not Jetstar in terms of Foreign Ownership levels?
Mike
Is this the way the present Management see the way around the Sale of Qantas Act which restricts Qantas but apparently not Jetstar in terms of Foreign Ownership levels?
Mike