Jetstar International Pax figures... WTF???

[Capt Kremin]

Ok, I have checked this a couple of times and it doesn't add up;

In the January preliminary traffic figures released by Qantas, the pax numbers given for JQ International was 358,000 pax carried at a load factor of 78.5%.

http://redirectingat.com/?id=42X4874...g-points-90%2F

At the bottom of the release was a paragraph that basically says that you only counted as a JQ Intl pax if they carried you either in or out of Australia, so JQ domestic feeders or QF codeshares should not count.

"The number of passengers carried is calculated on the basis of origin/destination (ie. one origin/destination journey represents one passenger regardless of the number of stage lengths undertaken)."

Below I have listed every scheduled JQ Intl flight that left or entered Australia in January. I took the maximum number of seats for the A320 and used the scheduled departures to arrive at a seats-per-week (spw) figure offered for each scheduled flight. i.e. Load factor 100%.

Even if a flight was actually cancelled during the month, it still appears here.

If you trust that I got them all and the arithmetic is close, feel free to skip past..

A321 SE Asia Flights Max 210 seats per A/C

DRWSIN JQ61 Daily/ 1470 spw
SINDRW JQ62 Daily/ 1470 spw
SINDRW JQ58 Daily/ 1470 spw

Total 4410 seats per week.

A320 SE Asia Flights All A320 flights use Max 177 seats.

DRWSGN JQ73 12.4.6./708 spw
DRWSIN JQ57 Daily /1239 spw
DRWDPS JQ81 Daily /1239 spw
PERCGK JQ114 1…5../ 354 spw
CGKSIN JQ114 1…5../ 354 spw
PERDPS JQ116 Daily /1239 spw
DPSSIN JQ116 1.3.56/ 708 spw
PERSIN JQ109 Daily /1239 spw
SGNDRW JQ74 12.4.6./708 spw
DPSDRW JQ82 Daily/ 1239 spw
CGKPERJQ115 …4..7 /354 spw
SINCGK JQ115 …4..7 /354 spw
DPSPER JQ117 1.3.56. /708 spw
DPSPER JQ113 .2.4..7/ 708 spw
SINDPS JQ117 1.3.56/ 708spw
SINPER JQ110 Daily/ 1239 spw

Total 13098 seats per week

A320 Tasman Flights

SYDCHC JQ143 Daily/ 1239 seats Per week
SYDCHC JQ151 ..3.5.7/531 spw
MELCHC JQ159 1..4.6./531 spw
MELCHC JQ171 12345.7/ 1062 spw
BNECHC JQ175 .23.5.7/708 spw
BNECHC JQ183 1..4.6/. 531 spw
OOLCHC JQ191 …..6./ 177 spw
OOLCHC JQ191 .2…../ 177spw
OOLAKL JQ239 Daily/ 1239 spw
SYDAKL JQ205 Daily/ 1239 spw
CHCSYD JQ140 Daily/ 1239 spw
CHCSYD JQ150 ..3.5.7/ 531 spw
CHCMEL JQ156 1..4.6./ 531 spw
CHCMEL JQ166 12345.7/ 1062 spw
CHCBNE JQ172 .23.5.7/708 spw
CHCBNE JQ182 1..4.6. / 531 spw
CHCOOL JQ190 …..6./177 spw
CHCOOL JQ190 .2…../177 spw
AKLOOL JQ238 Daily/ 1239 spw
AKLSYD JQ204 Daily/1239 spw

Total 14868 seats per week

A330 flights (303 seats per A/C)

SYDDPS JQ37 ..3.5/ 606 spw
MELDPS JQ35 .2…6./ 606 spw
MELBKK JQ29 .2.4..7/ 909 spw
SYDHKT JQ27 ..3…./ 303 spw
SYDHNL JQ3 12.4.6. / 1212/ spw
OOLKIX JQ19 Daily/ 2121 spw
CNSNRT JQ25 1..4567/ 1515 spw
CNSNRT JQ25 .23…./ 606 spw
OOLNRT JQ11 Daily /2121 spw
DPSSYD JQ38 1…..7/ 606 spw
DPSSYD JQ38 ..3.5../ 606 spw
DPSMEL JQ36 .2…6./ 606 spw
BKKMEL JQ30 .2.4..7 /909 spw
HKTSYD JQ28 ..3…. / 303 spw
HNLSYD JQ4 12.4.6. /1212 spw
KIXOOL JQ20 Daily /2121 spw
NRTCNS JQ26 1..4567/ 1515 spw
NRTCNS JQ26 .23…. /606 spw
NRTOOL JQ12 Daily /2121 spw

Total 20604 Seats per week

Total seats offered per week on Jetstar International flights to and from Australia = 52980

Seats offered per day= 7568

Total seat offered for January 2010= 234625

Claimed numbers carried = 358,000

Claimed load factor= 78.5

Actual Pax numbers if Load factor correct= 184500 approx.

Jetstar had a fleet of 34 A320's 6 A321's and 6 A330's in January. If the ENTIRE fleet was available for the month with no maintenance planned, it comes out at a little over 9000 seats available on J* aircraft each day.

If JQ actually did carry 358,000 pax at a load factor of 78.5% then actual seats required to be offered to achieve that = Approx 450,000 seats per month or 14500 per day!

That equates to about 75% of the seats that would be available from the entire fleet doing a typical two sector Intl day.

Keep in mind also that the claimed figures for JQ DOM in January were 746,000 pax for a combined monthly total of just over 1.1 million.

The JQ DOM Load Factor was 81.8%. To achieve 746,000 pax at a load factor of 82% requires approx 930,000 seats per month to be offered or another 30,000 seats per day!

Is it possible to offer 44500 seats per day on a fleet that size, especially when over half your ASK's are on long haul and regional flights?

I am not having a dig at JQ staff here, and I hope someone will come along and poke a big hole in these figures. The only possible hole I see is that the preliminary figures do not include JQ NZ DOM figures.

Nor should they; they have nothing to do with passengers carried in and out of Australia.

QF domestic codeshares should also not raise the INTL figures due to the covering paragraph. I am not sure about the DOM figures, but considering most, if not all Qantas/JQ codeshare pax are travelling on a QF flight to catch a JQ Intl flight, then they shouldn't count as extras either.

So how can JQ Intl offer 234000 published seats in a month and claim to carry 358,000 passengers in that same month?

What about the DOM figures... how are they possible with the fleet size and the Intl commitment? I look forward to some interesting answers from ppruner's.

[Angle of Attack]

Probably because they count a whole lot of Jetstar pax that actually travel on QF services, even though they booked Jetstar, as usual a massive subsidy service.

[Keg]

Send it all to Ben Sandilands. He and the rest of the Crikey team love stuff like this.

[The The]

WOW! You must have a lot of spare time on your hands.

[Spanner Turner]

At the bottom of the release was a paragraph that basically says that you only counted as a JQ Intl pax if they carried you either in or out of Australia

You've included the flights below in your calculations;

CGKSIN JQ114 1…5../ 354 spw
DPSSIN JQ116 1.3.56/ 708 spw
SINCGK JQ115 …4..7 /354 spw
SINDPS JQ117 1.3.56/ 708spw

No Aussie soil involved in these flights.

[mister hilter]

Good bit of detective work there Capt Kremin. Do you think it's likely they've also added in the figures for J* Asia?

[tail wheel]

DRWSIN JQ61 Daily/ 1470 spw
SINDRW JQ62 Daily/ 1470 spw
SINDRW JQ58 Daily/ 1470 spw

You may be missing the DRWSIN flight which changes to JQ58?

[Capt Kremin]

Tail Wheel, thanks. Yes I missed that one. Amend seats offered per month to 241135.

Mister Hilter. The J* Asia numbers are included separately, elsewhere in that release.

Spanner Turner. I was conservative so I included those flights as they mave have pax complexing through DPS and CGK. However they should be counted on the flights to get them to and from those two ports I guess. Leave it in to be conservative.

AOA. As far as I am aware, no J* Intl passengers are carried on QF Intl flights. If they were then those flight should be on the published J* Intl schedule.
J* Intl pax ARE carried on QF DOM services but only to get them to ports that have J* Intl flights operating from them. e.g. CBR-SYD-CHC. Therefore they should have been counted under the covering paragraph.

[breakfastburrito]

Kremin, if I interpret your analysis correctly, it would indicate:
358,000 - 244135 = +113,865 more claimed filled seats than could actually possibly exist for the month of January for J* international. Is this correct?

Out of interest 78.5% of 244,135 = 191,646

[WX-T]

THE THE said;

WOW! You must have a lot of spare time on your hands.

Well sir, so must you if you have time to look and post on PPrune. Could it be that people like you are to lazy to do the same hard work as Capt Kremin?

It's to bad more people don't get involved with this type of investigative work to keep the "bastards" honest.

[captaintunedog777]

This joker must have mental problems. How long did this take? Get a life son. This is way too sad.

[breakfastburrito]

Tunedog, do you actually have anything meaningful to add?

Jetstar's overseas growth doubles: travel recovery
Steve Creedy, Aviation writer From: The Australian March 27, 2010 12:00AM

JETSTAR has laid claim to the title of the third-biggest international airline servicing Australia after impressive growth in February international passenger numbers that were 91.3 per cent higher than a year ago.

91.3%, does that strike you as worth questioning? Or would you just swallow it hook line & sinker?

Kremin's either right or wrong. If he is wrong, yes, what a waste of time. What if he is right, would that be a waste of time too? The answer to these questions could have significant ramifications.

[captaintunedog777]

Yeah that's right Qantas making figures up for the ASX. Yep you guys know more.

[mach2male]

Rubbery Figures for the ASX

Wouldnt be the first time that spurious figures have been presented to the ASX.
Certainly wont be the last

[breakfastburrito]

HIH, Lehman Brothers, Enron, worldcom, do I need to go on.
Yeh, they did just make it up, and they were all listed companies, including the ASX. Some of the perpetrators even went to gaol.

[Pedota]

Great piece of sleuth work Kremin. . . and yes, I think that is the conclusion breakfastburrito.

I re-read the Qantas Group announcement looking for a 'sneaky' line which might account for the discrepancies . . . perhaps this is it? Despite the release portending to be about the Group defined as . . .

Group (comprising Qantas Domestic, QantasLink, Jetstar Domestic, Qantas International and Jetstar International)

. . . a later sentence implies that Jetstar Asia’s number are also included

inclusion of Jetstar Asia within the Group

I'm guessing Jetstar Asia's numbers have been bundled in with Jetstar International?

The context of these selected quotes are provided in context below (my bold/italic).

Just a thought?

Month of January 2010

January Group (comprising Qantas Domestic, QantasLink, Jetstar Domestic, Qantas International and Jetstar International) passenger numbers increased by 5.7 percent over the previous year. RPKs decreased by 0.2 percent and ASKs were up 0.6 percent, resulting in a revenue seat factor of 81.2 percent, which was 0.6 percentage points lower than the previous year.

Financial Year to Date January 2010
Group passenger numbers for the financial year to January 2010 were up 6.9 percent from the previous year. RPKs increased by 1.0 percent, while ASKs decreased by 1.8 percent, resulting in a revenue seat factor of 82.2 percent, which was 2.2 percentage points higher than the previous year.

Total Domestic (Qantas, QantasLink and Jetstar Domestic operations) yield excluding foreign exchange for the financial year to January 2010 was 6.1 percent lower when compared to the same period the prior year. Total International (Qantas and Jetstar International operations) yield excluding foreign exchange for the financial year to January 2010 decreased by 20.1 percent when compared to the same period the prior year. Qantas international yields showed continued improvement with monthly yields moving from -10.3 percent versus the previous year in December, to -7.7 percent in January. Total International yield movements were adversely impacted by a change in the mix of flying with Jetstar representing a higher proportion of international ASKs and by the inclusion of Jetstar Asia within the Group.

[windytown]

Is it possible that NZ domestic is included in international (ie not Aust domestic)? This would also help explain the high increas in international PAX

[captaintunedog777]

breakfastburrito HIH, Lehman Brothers, Enron, worldcom,

I think son you will find those componies had very complex balance sheets. Simply bulls$%tting monthly figures by JQI as the Kremin dude so easily worked out simply does not gel and Q would not get away with it.

Next please!

[ozbiggles]

Capt Kremin has done some work on this. Accurate or not I don't know but it does raise a debate and he presents his workings.
777, you just going to bleat and call people son or are you going to debunk the figures with more than just name calling? If not Kremin wins one nil by TKO

[Mango]

What about adding Jetstar Pacific and Jetstar Asia?