Pig flu and an economic crisis...

[bushy]

Let's take it seriously

Remember those child hood stories?
The one about the big bad wolf and the three little pigs. The facts are.......
The big bad wolf said "I'll huff and i'll puff and I'll blow your house down!!!!
To which the little pig replied "Piss off wolf, or I'll sneeze on you"

[ZEEBEE]

Use your initiative and be proactive, volunteer to quarantine yourselves if you believe you have had contact with infected people known or unknown, do not wait till you developed rashes than you start to quarantine yourselves, it may already be too late and you may also have broken the law by knowingly or unknowingly passing on contagions.

You can't actually break the law by passing on contagions if you don't know that you have them.

Anyone who thinks that this is going to be contained by "quarantining" after people exhibit the symptoms is naive in the extreme.
Most people will have effectively spread the virus LONG before they get developed symptoms and of course those people cross infected will do likewise.

As the Chief Health minister said, "It may be better to simply treat this the same as the seasonal flu".

Unfortunately, just like the "Global warming" hysteria, there are those that think that we as humans can actually do something about a phenomena that's completely out of our control.

As George Carlin would have put it "It's the ultimate arrogance of our species"

[heads_down]

you can reasonably suspect whether you have them or not when you simply trace your steps backwards for a week, have you been to a high risk countries in the list of 44 publish by the government? Are you starting to feel fatigue? Is your throat not feeling usual? simple steps like that can slowly narrow it down to whether you are a suspect or not.

however your team manager will laugh it off and say until I see you in a stretcher, hauled to the nearest hospital, I do not think it is anything to worry about, in that case, I think you need to slap them with the law and contact the NSW health department.

Don't let your employer bully you into not taking this seriously through scare tactics.

And yes such is the arrogance of the human species.

[Chimbu chuckles]

So still worried about this mild version of flu are we fellas?

Any bets on what the next 'pandemic' scare campaign will be?

[glekichi]

I still don't get how they can call it a f#%king pandemic.....

Sure, the criteria for a pandemic is 'sustained community level transmission..' in more than a couple of countries, but the step down to the phase at the end of a pandemic is a reduction to seasonal infection levels.... which the current 'pandemic' (swine.... really?) flu is WELL below already.

So... was it ever really a pandemic?


Edit: Unprecedented typo on PPRUNE

[Lodown]

A bit in the US papers yesterday estimated that over a million US citizens had now been infected by swine flu.

[The Bullwinkle]

Swine Flu is not a laughing matter. Just pray that we can keep it out of Australia.

You are joking, aren't you?

It's a flu, for christ sake.

The only reason we know about it is because it's shoved in our faces every day by the media.

The mis-information that is reported as fact is diabolical.

So far, we have had 4 Swine Flu deaths. But then you read the small print and discover that the victims didn't actually die from Swine Flu. They just happened to have it at their time of death, but it wasn't the cause of death!

It's just a flu!

Of course the pharmaceutical companies are making a killing with their sales of Tamiflu medications. (Not to mention the companies who make those stupid little paper masks)

Wake up people, can't you tell when you're being conned, or do you all just blindly believe everything that you read in the paper or see on TV?

[Bradley Marsh]

Some news

<QUOTE>

Swine flu: to every thing there is a season : Effect Measure


Early returns on what is happening in the southern hemisphere suggest that novel H1N1 is crowding out the expected seasonal strains, something that pandemic strains have usually done. In 1918 there was a pandemic with the H1N1 subtype that settled down as the dominant seasonal flu virus until the "Asian flu" pandemic of 1957 when it was bumped by H2N2. That subtype ruled the seasonal flu roost for only 9 years when a new subtype, H3N2 took its place in the Hong Kong flu pandemic of 1968. Both pandemics were much less severe than 1918 but still resulted in millions of excess deaths globally. In 1977 the pattern was interrupted with the return of H1N1, which didn't take the place of H3N2 but co-circulated with it. Since then we've seen mixtures of H3N2 and H1N1 each flu season, with sometimes one subtype much more prevalent, sometimes the other (a hybrid H1N2 made a sporadic appearance in 2002 but never gained a foothold and didn't represent a novel appearing virus to the population). Sometimes H1N1 and H3N2 would switch places at some point in the flu season, but those two, along with influenza B have made up seasonal influenza since 1977.

Now we have a novel H1N1 added to the mix. While novel H1N1 and seasonal H1N1 have the same subtype designation, the swine origin of the new virus means that the hemagglutinin (H) and neuriminidase (N) proteins on its surface are sufficiently different from the human adapted counterparts that it looks like a very different flu virus to most of the population. Despite its swine origin it is infecting humans and being easily transmitted from person to person. It is also continuing to circulate in the northern hemisphere at a time when most seasonal flu is at a very low level. The seasonal flu strains are essentially gone up north, almost all flu A being novel H1N1. Is this just because seasonal flu went away by itself (and we emphasize, again, the reasons for flu's seasonality remains a mystery)? Will they return, with or without novel H1N1 during next flu season up north?

We are looking to what is happening in the southern hemisphere for some clues. Australia is one of the most hard hit countries and also has a well functioning influenza surveillance system similar to one in the US. And it appears the new virus is pushing out the seasonal strains that were expected to be the main circulating flu viruses:

Tests on 138 type-A flu samples collected by a network of doctors confirmed 60 cases of the new A/H1N1 variant and only five of seasonal influenza in the eight weeks ended June 21, according to a report today by the Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory in Melbourne.

[snip]

“We are seeing a big increase compared to the same stage of the flu season last year, and the increase is predominantly in 5- to 16-year-olds,” Kerry Chant, chief health officer for New South Wales, said in a statement today. Two children are in intensive care and two other people hospitalized, she said.

The eastern state, Australia’s most populous, has 653 confirmed cases of swine flu, the second highest number in the nation after neighboring Victoria state.

Health officials in Victoria have recorded 1,509 cases from laboratory tests and stopped analyzing specimens from patients with mild disease earlier this month as part of the state’s response to the virus.

[snip]

Victoria’s influenza sentinel surveillance network diagnosed flu-like illness in 21.9 of every 1,000 patients seen in the week ended June 21, the report showed. That’s up from 17 per 1,000 a week earlier.

The network comprises 87 general practitioners across the state who test a portion of their patients for flu to give authorities an indication of flu activity in the community.

Unlike seasonal flu, from which the elderly suffer the most death and disease, the new bug is targeting the young and causing potentially fatal complications in otherwise healthy people aged 30 to 50, pregnant women and those with asthma, diabetes and obesity, according to the WHO. (Jason Gale, Bloomberg)

Not only is the virus taking the place of the seasonal strains, it is acting like a pandemic strain usually acts, moving the age distribution to the left (younger age groups). So while the virus is not clinically very different from seasonal flu, it is epidemiologically different.

So what will happen? The most likely outcome in our view is that henceforth flu season will be dominated by a single viral lineage, the current swine origin H1N1. That may take a couple of seasons and during the transition we could have some very unpleasant flu seasons, with lots more illness than usual and increased morbidity and mortality among younger members of the population. That epidemiological difference will make this flu virus seem different and more frightening. But I'm guessing.Flu never does what we expect it to, so there are many other possibilities, some much nastier.

Over at Avian Flu Diary Mike Coston also reflects on this. He's an astute flu observer and always worth reading, no less so this time.

<UNQUOTE>

Cheers,
Brad

[Bradley Marsh]

If you think it isn't worth your caring .. then don't

Here's a quote you might find apt:

<QUOTE>
In short - living your life by the news is like driving using only the rear view mirror. Both only show a selective part of the past - not the future. Please post your feelings about the future. A good idea or skill should not be kept to oneself.
<UNQUOTE>

It is from this thread: Pandemic prep teachable moment : Effect Measure


These snippets may also be of interest but the whole thread is worth reading if you are after a balanced view of the real professionals instead of what you are fed in MSM.

<QUOTE>
Far as I can tell, the public health authorities across most of North America have used this "teachable moment" to assure people that the flu is mild, that the "pandemic" is more a technical than a real problem, and that everything that needs to be done is being done.

In consequence of our don't-worry-about-it messaging, we have achieved a high level of disinterest in, and complacency about, the pandemic. Published polls show this to be true. For example, see:

Despite ?Pandemic,? Swine Flu Worry Dwindles

If/when we need to actually motivate people to take steps to protect themselves, and if/when we need to start talking up complicated and problematic community level interventions, then we will no doubt be seen by many as, and accused of, once again, being either a) scaremongers, or b) Pollyannas who failed to tell people earlier about the risk.

Which is to say I think we have failed to communicate in a manner consistent with known principles of effective risk communications. The practical result of this may well be that our eventual management of this outbreak will be less effective than it should be.

As in: more people will die than would be the case if we were leveling with people now about what may be coming down later.

German authorities warn of swine flu mutation risk | Health | Reuters
<UNQUOTE>

And if you want some deeper info on Flu etc please go to this page:
biology : Effect Measure


Cheers,
Brad

[Bradley Marsh]

And once again:

For those too busy to research before posting but are interested in the facts here is a quick primer on pandemic influenza :
It is cut/paste from a blog <http://afludiary.*************/2009/06/new-pandemic-primer.html> that I can't seem to link to from here:

<QUOTE>


Six week and nearly 300 essays ago - when the Swine Flu story was just hitting the news wires - I put together a primer on pandemics for first-time visitors to Flublogia (our little corner of the Internet that specializes in influenza) .



Today, with the declaration of a pandemic apparently imminent, I’ve updated that piece to include some of the information we’ve learned about the H1N1 swine flu virus over the past 6 weeks, and am running it again.


The HHS rates Pandemics like Hurricanes. Category 1-5

The 1918 Spanish Flu was a CAT 5 Pandemic.


While my regular readers are no doubt familiar with the basics of pandemics, it is probably a good time for a review.


Don’t worry, I’ll be gentle.



First, you need to know that scientists have been expecting another pandemic (global spread of a novel virus) to come around for years.


Influenza viruses, you see, are notorious for being unstable.

They mutate constantly, which is why we need a new flu shot every year. The changes from year to year are often minor, but even a tiny antigenic shift or drift in the virus can render your last flu shot useless.

Every once in awhile, we see a major change in an influenza virus. It can jump species to humans (as we believed happened in 1918), or it can acquire genetic material (reassortment) from another flu virus and create a new hybrid.

<image>

<Fig.> Birds, humans, and Pigs are all susceptible to Influenza

In either event, you can end up with a new (novel) virus to which humans have little or no immunity.

If the virus is also easily transmissible, and it produces illness in humans, you have the ingredients for a pandemic.

The term `pandemic’ describes the geographic spread of a novel virus, not the severity.

Roughly every 30 to 40 years for at least the past 3 centuries the world has seen an influenza pandemic. Usually these pandemics are mild or moderate, but on rare occasions they can be horrific.

The last true pandemic was in 1968, and the culprit was the H3N2 Hong Kong Flu.

As pandemics go, it was pretty mild. It probably only killed a million people or so, and perhaps 30,000 in the US.

Before that, you only had to go back 11 years, to 1957 and the H2N2 Asian Flu. A more lethal pandemic than 1968, the Asian Flu killed between 2 and 4 million people worldwide, and nearly 70,000 Americans.

The Granddaddy of flu pandemics occurred in 1918, and that was the H1N1 Spanish flu. Somewhere between 50 and 75 million people are estimated to have died over an 18 month period. The United States saw about 675,000 deaths from this flu.

We’ve also had `close calls’, such as the Swine Flu Scare of 1976, the Liverpool Flu of 1951, and the pseudo-pandemic of 1947.


In 1977, the H1N1 virus returned after an absence of 20 years, possibly due to an accidental release from a laboratory in the former Soviet Union.

It is also likely that we’ve been close to a pandemic other times, and simply were oblivious to the fact.

For the past 10 years we’ve been watching the H5N1 `Bird Flu Virus’ as it has moved out of Central China, to the Middle East, Indonesia, and parts of Europe.



The H5N1 virus has `pandemic potential’, but luckily hasn’t acquired the ability to spread from person to person easily.

You should know that despite the fact that the press has lost interest in it, the Bird Flu threat has not gone away, and the emergence of the H1N1 swine flu pandemic does not eliminate H5N1 as a threat.

The novel H1N1 `swine’ flu virus that has unexpectedly thrust us towards a pandemic is a distant relative of the seasonal H1N1 virus that has been in circulation – off and on – since at least 1918.

It has picked up genetic material from hosts (pigs) over the years (including some avian genes), that makes it unique enough that most humans have little or no immunity to it.

The good news (at least so far) is that this virus doesn’t appear to have the virulence (severity) that some pandemic strains have demonstrated in the past.

None of this is to suggest that this virus is benign. It isn’t. It is fully capable of producing serious, even fatal, illness in some small percentage of its victims.

For now, the WHO is calling this virus `moderate’ – not mild.

Early studies have suggested that it may be roughly equivalent to the 1957 `Asian Flu’ in virulence, but it is probably too soon to say with any certainty.


And the virulence of any influenza virus can change over time. The flu that we see this summer, or even this fall, may not be the same flu we see next winter or the following year.

And something else you should know; a pandemic is not a short-term event, like a hurricane or a flood. They can last for months – even a year or longer.

This is something we are likely to be dealing with in 2010 as well.


<image>


In late April, in response to the emergence of the novel H1N1 virus, the WHO began raising the pandemic alert level – from Phase 3 – where it has sat for several years, to Phase 4 and then to Phase 5.

It is anticipated that the WHO will declare a Level 6 Pandemic Phase later today. If that happens, it is simply official recognition of what has been going on for several weeks; the global spread of this novel virus.

We don’t know right now how seriously this pandemic will affect our society, our healthcare delivery system, and our economy. The impact could range from minor to severe – and since the virus could mutate, the effects could change over time.

It is unlikely that the vast majority of Americans will see a vaccine before 2010, meaning most of us will have to go through this winter without the protection of a H1N1 flu shot.

Certain high risk individuals, either due to their profession or due to falling into a medical high risk group, may see a vaccine late in the fall.

The HHS wants you, and your business, and your community to take this pandemic threat seriously. And that means being proactive, and taking steps now to prepare for this pandemic.

If you have not done so, go to Ready.gov. Get A Kit, Make A Plan, and Be Informed.

<image>

You should also visit pandemicflu.gov, and read and follow the advice provided on their Plan and Prepare page.

A pandemic may bring societal disruptions, such as prolonged school closures in the fall. You need to be figuring out now how you will handle it if your child is forced to stay home for weeks at a time.

You may also find that your regular employment is affected by a pandemic. There may be supply chain interruptions, personnel shortages, and possibly even some public health ordinances that interfere with your ability to work – at least temporarily.

And of course, during a pandemic there is a strong likelihood that you could contract the virus. For most people, this will simply mean spending a miserable week or two at home. The vast majority of people will recover without incident.

But some people, particularly those at higher risk, may experience serious, even life threatening illness.

You need to be prepared to care for yourself, and your loved ones, in your home. Dr. Grattan Woodson's Home Treatment of Influenza is as good a reference for the treatment of influenza as you are likely to find, and it’s free.

Hospitals and clinics are likely to be overrun with flu cases during a pandemic wave, and medical care will probably be difficult to obtain – even in developed countries.

Lastly, you need to be thinking about how you can help your neighborhood, and greater community, get through a crisis.

It can be something as simple as volunteering to be a `flu buddy’ for a neighbor or friend – being willing to fetch medicines, food, or render medical assistance in the event that they are unable to help themselves.

If you are able, you might consider volunteering with the Red Cross or, CERT, or the Medical Reserve Corps. There will also probably be opportunities to help with your local school, church, or hospital.

The important thing is that we react – not overreact – to this crisis.

If we retreat into our homes, refuse to work, or are afraid to help our neighbors and community we will only compound the effects of a pandemic.

And we risk putting a stake through the heart of an already staggering economy.

The pandemic of 2009 will make the third pandemic in my lifetime. It probably won’t be my last.

As Michael Leavitt, former Secretary of the HHS liked to say, “Pandemics happen.”

Now it’s our task to deal with it.



<UNQUOTE>

Cheers,
Brad

[teresa green]

Blimey Bradley, I am exhausted from reading your post. Are you a pilot or a quack, you sound like one of those horribly ernest young S/O's who regale you for hours about some drival or personal problems they might have, ( I still shudder when I think of one young man who spent the entire night trying to convert me to Buddhism) anyway old chap, you cannot go thru life with a hot water bottle and parachute strapped to your side, and having bottles of dettol in your nav bag, carefully wiping hotel doors ( I flew with one of them too) eat well, exercise, relax, and if you do get the dreaded lugey, you will be equipped to fight it, live each day mate, stop worrying about it, next year it will be something else!

[stubby jumbo]

.....great post Theresa.

I haven't had a laugh like this from pprune for ages

You're right though. Pig Flu, Swine Flu ,H1N1, Hep A, Hep B & C, the world is full of nasties.

Many moons ago ......me and a mate back packed from Capetown to Cairo........and guess what.... survived. Its all a numbers game -just as the dudes who won last nights lotto and got $50m each.

Paranoia will get you know where.

The only way to avoid all this is to lock yourself in a bubble on a sterile IV drip.

[teresa green]

I figured out stubby with 25,000 hrs in my log, that means I must have eaten at least 12,000 crew meals, now mate, that should be enough to kill a herd of elephants, I reckon crew are miles ahead in the infections stakes, if they have survived x amount of crew meals, not much else could possibly kill them, and old blokes like me have survived, the threat of TB, Polio, Hepatitis, Asian flu, AIDS, mad cow disease, Ross River fever, to say nothing of mumps, chicken pox, and measles, and like most blokes I personally hope I die "on the job" if not I will be quite happy to be buried in a old DC9 with my arm around one of her beautiful little donks and sent to the nearest aircrew bar in the sky, meanwhile I am dammed if I am going to worry about some flu, pig, goat or otherwise, I am far more interested in catching my next Barra, and so should the rest of you.

[Angle of Attack]

I am sure Brad has some stakeholding in Tamiflu or the likes??

Anyway on a side note I had a mate get the dreaded Swine Flu, he had a fever and was bed bound for a day, then a week later I got some flu symptoms, got tested but it was just another strain of flu! Well I shouldn't say just I got slammed and bed bound for 4 days! I know which one I would have preferred to get! The Swine is just another strain that has appeared along with heaps of others in the past which have transferred from avian and swine origins!

[Sunfish]

(Sigh) the problem is not the virulence of pandemic flu, it is going to be the number of cases that have the capacity to overwhelm the health system.

[Bradley Marsh]

Teresa et al,

Loathe as I am to rebut the sniping and sarcasm that is a regular feature of PPRuNe, I'd just like to make 2 things perfectly clear:

1. I have no interest in any business associated with this or any other pandemic or medical interest. The purpose of my posts is to share with my profressional colleagues the information of which I have become aware through a personal interest in the virology and epidemiology of Influenza A.

2. The information I post is relayed from the worlds acknowledged authorities on Flu A as well as sources well outside the MSM you so decry every time they beat up an aviation issue. Perhaps that experience should make you wary of blindly accepting what you are fed on the telly or your daily rag of choice. The recent posts which you find so tedious are all direct quotes with attriibutions stated as best I can within the link posting limitations of PPRuNe.

You are welcome to add me to your ignore list, not read the posts or exercise your free will in any other way so so desire. Personally I'd prefer if you all played the ball and not the man ie. stick to the facts and do some reasearch.

Cheers with the best intent,

Brad

[The Bullwinkle]

I say again.

It's just a flu!

[Mr. Hat]

Latest from popular media website:

Young, healthy at risk of swine flu's sequel | Swine flu | News.com.au

From the article:

A fifth NSW resident was confirmed to have died from the disease, taking the national death toll to 20. A further 32 NSW residents are in intensive care, at least six of them young and otherwise healthy.

That last sentence is a hint that it might be a little more serious than i previously thought...

[Square Bear]

Any updates about the current flu situation/ (and fatalities) from those that post on this forum with a knowlege about all things?

[cunninglinguist]

No need to panic over flu deaths'

Sydney Morning Herald

July 8, 2007


A FLU outbreak in NSW was unlikely despite the deaths of three young children in Western Australia in the past few days, authorities said yesterday.

But NSW Health said it was not too late to be vaccinated against the respiratory illness.

NSW Health director of communicable diseases Dr Jeremy McAnulty said the annual flu season had arrived in NSW but there was no data to suggest anything more serious than usual. "It's so far shaping up like a regular old flu season but we will be monitoring it over the coming weeks," he said.

While most people get over the flu without problems, young children, the over-55s, Aborigines over 50 and people with existing medical conditions should take extra care, he said.

People with diabetes, heart problems and respiratory conditions were particularly at risk from complications, such as pneumonia, brought on by flu.

Dr McAnulty urged people in those groups, who had not already been vaccinated, to visit their GP and receive the flu shot, which takes about a week to take effect.

People struck down by flu should stay at home and recuperate, rather than go to work or school and risk spreading the illness, he said.

Dr McAnulty said it was also important to remember basic hygiene, such as coughing into a tissue and regular hand-washing, to reduce the spread of flu.

"Many hundreds of people in NSW, maybe thousands across Australia, are hospitalised from flu each year," he said.

"There's probably several hundred deaths across Australia, usually elderly people but sometimes small children . . . fortunately it's pretty uncommon."

Hundreds of concerned parents have fronted up to hospital emergency departments across Perth following an influenza warning from health authorities. Their action was prompted by a call from Western Australia's Department of Health urging parents to seek early medical attention for young children showing signs of respiratory illness.

The department's warning followed the deaths of three children, all aged under five, in the Perth metropolitan area in recent days.

It has been confirmed they died from the A strain of the influenza virus, which can be controlled by vaccination.

Two died after suffering complications after falling ill in a Perth hospital. The third did not receive hospital treatment.

OK Kiddies, lets move on to the next sensationalistic journalism piece, surely there must be another apocolypse due soon