Qantas Shares! how low can they go?
If people are selling with some selling below cost, who then is buying and what do they think of the future direction of the market?
Maybe KO'B should pose that plain simple question to the buyers instead of the smart-arse questioning of K707 last Thursday night.
Maybe KO'B should pose that plain simple question to the buyers instead of the smart-arse questioning of K707 last Thursday night.
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Gimme cash
The market this week hasn't been driven by rational analysis of the value of an airline, a bank, or a mine to anything like the degree to which it has been a dash for cash.
Let's choose a hypothetical case. You may know that QAN is worth $4, even now. But you also know the investment funds that chase the index and buy from a range of stocks which include QAN include one or more than could go broke. When or if that happens the QAN stock they hold will, theoretically, be sold for 10 cents by the fund's liquidators, far below the value of the asset even if the entire fleet was to be parked. So an otherwise rational assessment of QAN or VBA means stuff all. You get out, cashed up, even at a loss, knowing that the Aussie big banks will be the last in the world to go tits down.
A lot of this cash will end up in treasury bonds, including issues that might be sprung on a grateful market with not much more than very short notice.
Rationality will only come back into the picture when stability seems to have been assured in the ASX. I don't think that is likely any day soon.
Let's choose a hypothetical case. You may know that QAN is worth $4, even now. But you also know the investment funds that chase the index and buy from a range of stocks which include QAN include one or more than could go broke. When or if that happens the QAN stock they hold will, theoretically, be sold for 10 cents by the fund's liquidators, far below the value of the asset even if the entire fleet was to be parked. So an otherwise rational assessment of QAN or VBA means stuff all. You get out, cashed up, even at a loss, knowing that the Aussie big banks will be the last in the world to go tits down.
A lot of this cash will end up in treasury bonds, including issues that might be sprung on a grateful market with not much more than very short notice.
Rationality will only come back into the picture when stability seems to have been assured in the ASX. I don't think that is likely any day soon.
Join Date: Oct 2007
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Knowing what I know now, if I were you young bucks, I would be buying real estate, (not units) you need to own the land, the house can be crap, but while you own the land you have to do ok. Up here in SE Qld, the land is running out, ditto anywhere within 10 ks of the ocean. What lies ahead for you young blokes is anybodies guess, with climate change (if it is for real) world markets, probably the changing of the guard, with India, China, and Russia once more making a lot of noise on the world stage, and perhaps another depression (hopefully not) Super is now shown for what it really is, far too dependant on world markets, and I doubt if much will be learnt from all of this, as greed will always win, it is the nature of the beast. (In fact I just read yesterday where some US bank, that has just been bailed out by the taxpayer, has organised a pissup at some 5 star hotel for the execs to celebrate their recovery, so their noses are already back in the trough.) I am probably stating the bleedin obvious here, but for self funded retirees these are worrying times, as you have probably learnt from your parents.
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To my way of thinking the Labor Party was elected in 07 on its eviromental and workchoices ticket, its history of poor economic management is well documented, and Rudds poor performance on the 7.30 report the other night, when he refused to answer any question, but used political speak (in otherwords said twenty minutes of twaddle) when all the punters want to know is,will they still have a house and a job next year?
Also, Keating is highly regarded by commentators and both sides of politics as reforming the economy, and a significant contributor of the good times under Howard. I concede you can point to some poorly managed state Labor governments.
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Well for a start, I would prefer to have a fully qualified Captain up the front with years of experience, when the ship hit turbulance, not the earnest but still wet behind the ears Second Officer. Regardless of what you think of the Liberal Party and Costello, not to many starved under their watch, and while I have to agree with you, it might not make much difference to my super (that is right now being dictated to by world events) I would still prefer the experienced Capt up the front as long as the flight continues. As for your remarks about Paul Keating, you were obviously still at playschool, whilst that egomaniac dragged this country thru the "recession we had to have" and when the Aust public finally had had enough he left a debt you could not leap over. As for Whitlam the less said the better, just that my dog could organise his kennel better. Hawke whilst the best of a bad bunch, at least did not run the country into near bankruptcy, but as a 89er, once more the less said the better. Please tell me what Rudd has done so far, sure he said "sorry" and joined Kyoto which is not worth the paper its written on, but all the bloke does (when in Australia) is talk about "transparency" and other political claptrap, in fact the bloke can talk for twenty minutes without saying anything. The poor old pensioners are, according to my quack, starting to show signs of malnutrician, (yes I know the libs could have done more) but these are desperate times, and something needs to be done now, not after yet another review in Feb. Bob Carr, now there is a pollie for you, run NSW into near bankruptcy, whilst the NT had to get rid of Claire Martin whilst it was still solvent, Peter Beatty, well what can you say? Paid off by Rudd as he was getting on the nose, and given a "job for boys" OS, and then there was Mark Latham.....you can have em mate. Oh and don't forget Ms Neal from the NSW Central Coast "Don't you know who I am" and the phedophile from NTL. Yep, this country has a lot to look forward too, no doubt about it.
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Teresa...Thread Drift
You are the old conservative generation who had little understanding of Macro Economics and the trickle down effect of decisions made now and the time they take to come to fruition.
Costello et.al did not invent the commodities boom,the housing price boom or the appreciation in the $A.
A drovers dog could have run the economy over the last ten years.
Come to think of it a little strutting dachshund was in charge.
Start your own thread regarding this matter.
Costello et.al did not invent the commodities boom,the housing price boom or the appreciation in the $A.
A drovers dog could have run the economy over the last ten years.
Come to think of it a little strutting dachshund was in charge.
Start your own thread regarding this matter.
Thread Starter
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OUCH !!!
It actually shut even lower at $1.67.
Bloomberg.com: Australia & New Zealand
The carrier fell 3.4 percent to A$1.69 at 3:00 p.m. in Sydney. It has lost 36 percent this year, the worst performer among the 15 stocks in the Bloomberg Asia-Pacific Airlines Index
Bloomberg.com: Australia & New Zealand
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Who is telling the truth?
Interesting how the media handled the double talk from Qantas about its investment downgrade.
The Oz seems to bend over and take it.
Qantas rating hit by financial turbulence | The Australian
Plane Talking takes it to Qantas but says Virgin Blue's turn is coming.
Qantas Moodys the waters as shares sink deeper - Plane Talking
Business Spectator gives a fuller explanation here;
Business Spectator - Qantas' ratings cut on debt, profit fears; shares fall 4%
For my money, and I'm sitting on a loss on QAN and a loss on VBA, I think I'll just keep them in a drawer full of little horrors and hope that things get better in time for them being worth cashing by the grand children when they bury me down by the dam where the working dogs lie.
The Oz seems to bend over and take it.
Qantas rating hit by financial turbulence | The Australian
Plane Talking takes it to Qantas but says Virgin Blue's turn is coming.
Qantas Moodys the waters as shares sink deeper - Plane Talking
Business Spectator gives a fuller explanation here;
Business Spectator - Qantas' ratings cut on debt, profit fears; shares fall 4%
For my money, and I'm sitting on a loss on QAN and a loss on VBA, I think I'll just keep them in a drawer full of little horrors and hope that things get better in time for them being worth cashing by the grand children when they bury me down by the dam where the working dogs lie.
For my money, and I'm sitting on a loss on QAN and a loss on VBA,
Me too. And QAN just offered me the opportunity to buy more shares @$1.85. Thanks Qantas for the great offer, but no thanks.
Me too. And QAN just offered me the opportunity to buy more shares @$1.85. Thanks Qantas for the great offer, but no thanks.
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For my money, and I'm sitting on a loss on QAN and a loss on VBA...
I don't have time for QF because of a disfunctional corporate culture and failed service delivery.
VB, however, has much potential. Not without risk, but then the buying opportunity would not have presented itself without risk. On this one, patience.
As for any investor who is risk-averse, ponder the words of the CEO/Chairman of Nestle when asked about his views in regard to risk-management:
"Life is risk my friend, if you can't accept risk you shouldn't be living".
Any bets on $1.50 bt weeks end ? 
