Merged: Virgin Blue Share Price - how low can it go and for how long?
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Giday Shadow
Did you happen to sell those same shares at $2.40, that you are now buying with gay abandon at 0.15c- some time ago????????????????, with your mate Pete?????????????
Also, ref: the quoted (herein) route expansion, what's the difference between- operating an airframe (with it's implied overheads) - verse going through the motions because "one" has to wear it, due contract obligations??????????? and Revenue Expansion????????????
Rgds
S28- BE
Did you happen to sell those same shares at $2.40, that you are now buying with gay abandon at 0.15c- some time ago????????????????, with your mate Pete?????????????
Also, ref: the quoted (herein) route expansion, what's the difference between- operating an airframe (with it's implied overheads) - verse going through the motions because "one" has to wear it, due contract obligations??????????? and Revenue Expansion????????????
Rgds
S28- BE
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This is a very basic view on things, but I read in last week's Financial Review Virgin Blue is expecting to break even next year minus a V Australia loss. The V Australia loss should be small, considering the start up costs of $60 million are already paid for and it is now earning some revenue? Virgin Blue has over $500 million in the bank to see it through.
If this is true, its not bad for an airline in today's environment to at least break even. In a couple of years the worst of the GEC should be over and a recovery will happen meaning perhaps immediate profit and further expansion again? With Virgin Blue's losses now a proposed minimal amount (compared to the recent -$100 million) I am confident it will see it through. With re-deployment, monitoring of staff levels, and other cost-saving initiatives, its not like they're sitting around doing nothing. I've read all posts but still my view has always remained the same.
In addition, if something bad was to happen, what's everyone's thoughts on SRB financially helping Virgin Blue survive?
Those who choose to reply, this is my view, not yours or possibly yours. Be kind!!!
...Incoming...
If this is true, its not bad for an airline in today's environment to at least break even. In a couple of years the worst of the GEC should be over and a recovery will happen meaning perhaps immediate profit and further expansion again? With Virgin Blue's losses now a proposed minimal amount (compared to the recent -$100 million) I am confident it will see it through. With re-deployment, monitoring of staff levels, and other cost-saving initiatives, its not like they're sitting around doing nothing. I've read all posts but still my view has always remained the same.
In addition, if something bad was to happen, what's everyone's thoughts on SRB financially helping Virgin Blue survive?
Those who choose to reply, this is my view, not yours or possibly yours. Be kind!!!
...Incoming...
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Interesting to hear about the increased flying for PB using VB crew on the 737.
Are there going to be any new route for Ejet are they looking at doing any international flying on the Ejet (short route of course) under the same way they are doing the VB/PB agreement.
Good to see more routes opening up with PB/VB considering the economic downturn, will be interesting times ahead ....
Are VB going to take over any SAW runs (there was talk of it) but nothing heard or announced ...
All very quite ---
Are there going to be any new route for Ejet are they looking at doing any international flying on the Ejet (short route of course) under the same way they are doing the VB/PB agreement.
Good to see more routes opening up with PB/VB considering the economic downturn, will be interesting times ahead ....
Are VB going to take over any SAW runs (there was talk of it) but nothing heard or announced ...
All very quite ---
If the virgin group buy further shares there would be a notice on the ASX, change in substancial holdings. If SRB himself buys $6mil than this would most likely be in the papers the next day as was the rex interest.
Things seem to be getting better with OTP and Loads all heading in the right direction. However don't know what sort of ticket price is being achieved and how many aircraft are sitting idle at any one time. The fares all seem very low even up to a day in advance sometimes (all airlines).
The new 737 routes just seem to be trying to achieve utilisation on the aircraft. A quick look at the Jan stats shows the international load factors down to 73%, can't see how adding more capacity via direct flights will help.
Things seem to be getting better with OTP and Loads all heading in the right direction. However don't know what sort of ticket price is being achieved and how many aircraft are sitting idle at any one time. The fares all seem very low even up to a day in advance sometimes (all airlines).
The new 737 routes just seem to be trying to achieve utilisation on the aircraft. A quick look at the Jan stats shows the international load factors down to 73%, can't see how adding more capacity via direct flights will help.
Join Date: Jun 2007
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OTP and load factors have been good. But it is yield that pays the bills, and that is a tough slog right about now, and not only for VB. They are trying to do the right thing in the main, (survive) and there some light at the end of the tunnel. Just hope it isn't that train........
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SRB buys into the share price..
Word on the street is SRB himself has just tipped in about AU$6,000,000 of his hard earned into some DJ shares.. A broker in SYD has confirmed that a trader who is a "preferred" trader of the rich and famous at the ASX has confirmed the purchase... And no not at 15c but at 20.2c..
Word on the street is SRB himself has just tipped in about AU$6,000,000 of his hard earned into some DJ shares.. A broker in SYD has confirmed that a trader who is a "preferred" trader of the rich and famous at the ASX has confirmed the purchase... And no not at 15c but at 20.2c..
Why do it in tranches? Large purchases attract attention and costly market knee-jerk reactions nd volatility - and the financiers' parcels all come with different terms and costs attached.
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Would have thought that SRB would have been the last person any Board (or employees) would want as a major shareholder - esp after his apalling performances and insensitive on-camera brain farts lately.
Wonder if VB is going to be kind enough to reward those crew who are taking leave without pay with a few shares or something?..........Perhaps an invite for a weekend at SRB's place in the sun?
One for the watch and see whiteboard:
Certain VB Exec who was overheard recently proffering a less than discrete lobby for recognition in the next Honours list. - If it gets up, [unlikely]... every VB staffer who has sacraficed wages should be outraged........
.....I did suggest though, they could revive and dust off an OBE for him - recognising his rise on the backs of "Other Buggers' Efforts".
AT
Wonder if VB is going to be kind enough to reward those crew who are taking leave without pay with a few shares or something?..........Perhaps an invite for a weekend at SRB's place in the sun?
One for the watch and see whiteboard:
Certain VB Exec who was overheard recently proffering a less than discrete lobby for recognition in the next Honours list. - If it gets up, [unlikely]... every VB staffer who has sacraficed wages should be outraged........
.....I did suggest though, they could revive and dust off an OBE for him - recognising his rise on the backs of "Other Buggers' Efforts".
AT
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SRB is the major shareholder already
Airtags,
Since Toll gave away its shares in VBA Branson has been the major shareholder on just over one quarter of the ordinary stock. As such he can creep his stake upwards according to some formula I can't be bothered looking up. But why, those of us holding VBA and going blue might ask? Well it could be the numbers are looking pretty orright at the moment, so its cheap, so buy. Or it could be that he has a sniff of another player out there and decided that the more he has when the real money gets flung around the stronger his profits if he goes, or the stronger his asset base if he stays in association with another big stake holder.
I reckon it is impossible to predict anything about the next two years or so except that only about half as many people will be flying, because they have to, and on tickets they didn't pay for, meaning government or business travellers. So if I'm right fares will get stuck in the middle, and numbers will drop, and the Aussie carriers will have to work out how to get by on better fares but fewer punters until things pick up. 2012? 2020? Depends just how stuffed America is, and it looks pretty stuffed from my porch.
Since Toll gave away its shares in VBA Branson has been the major shareholder on just over one quarter of the ordinary stock. As such he can creep his stake upwards according to some formula I can't be bothered looking up. But why, those of us holding VBA and going blue might ask? Well it could be the numbers are looking pretty orright at the moment, so its cheap, so buy. Or it could be that he has a sniff of another player out there and decided that the more he has when the real money gets flung around the stronger his profits if he goes, or the stronger his asset base if he stays in association with another big stake holder.
I reckon it is impossible to predict anything about the next two years or so except that only about half as many people will be flying, because they have to, and on tickets they didn't pay for, meaning government or business travellers. So if I'm right fares will get stuck in the middle, and numbers will drop, and the Aussie carriers will have to work out how to get by on better fares but fewer punters until things pick up. 2012? 2020? Depends just how stuffed America is, and it looks pretty stuffed from my porch.
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denabol - agree and SRB has held a majority - although the difference is the influence of the majority [see the Allco QF soap opera for Andrew's classic examples of various stages of passive and divisive]
The punt is another player maybe seeing a spec option on the stock and hence the alleged SRB buy up - let's face it in the absence of anything positive from Godfrey and the Board, ANY potential interest is a good thing.
As you said the driver is the US - and with or without V [although VB would certainly be better without] - it's a tough road - esp., with some of the off balance sheet stuff coming home to roost.
I was on the money with Toll, the late pass at a stupidly high fuel hedge, the BS refinance of the 737 leases and the balance sheet juggle - hope that I'm not going for the run up for a double hat trick.
(for the rude PM critics who sugested I'm living in cloistered world at the front end of QF ...FYI - the other half has copped a second month of leave without pay thanks to VB Management's ongoing series of loss making wombat decisions)
......oh.....did I mention the life rafts? - maybe they need them at the Village
40:30
AT
The punt is another player maybe seeing a spec option on the stock and hence the alleged SRB buy up - let's face it in the absence of anything positive from Godfrey and the Board, ANY potential interest is a good thing.
As you said the driver is the US - and with or without V [although VB would certainly be better without] - it's a tough road - esp., with some of the off balance sheet stuff coming home to roost.
I was on the money with Toll, the late pass at a stupidly high fuel hedge, the BS refinance of the 737 leases and the balance sheet juggle - hope that I'm not going for the run up for a double hat trick.
(for the rude PM critics who sugested I'm living in cloistered world at the front end of QF ...FYI - the other half has copped a second month of leave without pay thanks to VB Management's ongoing series of loss making wombat decisions)
......oh.....did I mention the life rafts? - maybe they need them at the Village
40:30
AT
Last edited by airtags; 21st Mar 2009 at 10:24. Reason: I talk faster than I type
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SRB would be interested in keeping control if other players (airlines) are coming in to swoop on VB and V OZ. If V OZ changes hands away from the Virgin Group he would have to renegotiate to offer round the world tickets with VS.
At the time we all wondered why it couldn't be Virgin Australia flying to the USA and its because of Singapore Airlines
but
perhaps BG didn't need the Virgin name anyway as people will refer to it as Virgin anyway and V OZ doesn't have to pay the royalties to Branson like the rest of the Virgin brands around the world. I realise that you would probably like to trade off the brand but what if you could get something up and running without paying the bearded one a trailing commision???
At the time we all wondered why it couldn't be Virgin Australia flying to the USA and its because of Singapore Airlines
but
perhaps BG didn't need the Virgin name anyway as people will refer to it as Virgin anyway and V OZ doesn't have to pay the royalties to Branson like the rest of the Virgin brands around the world. I realise that you would probably like to trade off the brand but what if you could get something up and running without paying the bearded one a trailing commision???
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An interesting article in the paper the other day about he A380 being not so recession proof and how EK are looking to the 777 for answers.
Whilst even BG said you couldn't launch VA at a worse time admittedly they do have a lower employee cost base and a machine that seems to be purpose built for the operation.
And no I don't believe the VA terms and Conditions are a good thing for our industry for the record.
Whilst even BG said you couldn't launch VA at a worse time admittedly they do have a lower employee cost base and a machine that seems to be purpose built for the operation.
And no I don't believe the VA terms and Conditions are a good thing for our industry for the record.
Last edited by Mr. Hat; 22nd Mar 2009 at 02:43.
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Well OK, if you insist.....
Does anybody know how I can get this perpetual smirk off my face?
The wife says it's very unbecoming and that I look like a Cheshire cat that's chewed on a tube of instant super-glue.
But all the good news isn't here quite yet so my facial contortions are destined to continue. It's quite painful actually. One needs pain in one's life to act as a counter-poise. And there I was remonstrating with myself for buying even more at 19c/share...... when I could've had them at 17c.
Not to worry. I'll buy into the next dip.
The wife says it's very unbecoming and that I look like a Cheshire cat that's chewed on a tube of instant super-glue.
But all the good news isn't here quite yet so my facial contortions are destined to continue. It's quite painful actually. One needs pain in one's life to act as a counter-poise. And there I was remonstrating with myself for buying even more at 19c/share...... when I could've had them at 17c.
Not to worry. I'll buy into the next dip.
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Frink- et al
Virgin shares up 38% in two days and nobody wants to talk about it? Come on you blokes, spool up!!
Brett must be feeling 38% better- than he was 48 hrs ago.
Also, I'm feeling much better about the future (and that of the employed staff) that the Red Aeroplanes have had Anna and her well experienced GFC team returned in Queensland- so "Forget About It", SRB and Pete's dream is all in good hands- by vicarious participation- you'd have to be a cert for a Bailout Package- in the "Bag", I'd reckon????????????-should the brilliance not hold.
And the "Kev" is over there now, so that should be amazing going forward.
So is there a daily Cash Burn at the moment over the AUS/V operation, or is the whole show now Cash Positive?????? (and as such, within the projected burn rate parameters), with the magnificent intervention of Delta and an Interline Agreement.
How is the current Fleet/Schedule reorganisation- yielding in a revenue sense ?????????????
For a "dumb bastard"- is that "38%" on the list price or 48 hrs ago????, for mine take your revelation to- those supportive folks who paid to participate at the get go????
Commercial ASX analysts sometimes just read spin, or so I've been told- but I'm sure you have them all briefed on this amazing 38% reversal of form, for this dumb bastard- I'll await some further evidence............
So is that enough "Spool Up"- am happy to talk when it suits your magnificence......
Bloody well done you.
Rgds
S28- BE
So- is there a material amount of knowledge that the Market should be aware of ????- that it is not????