Senate releases report - affect to aviation
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Senate releases report - affect to aviation
The Australian Senate finally released its report on the future of Australia's oil supply this week. Of interest were a couple of paragraphs of what effect peak oil production will have on the aviation industry. In
and further on...
"More than 95 per cent of Australia’s transport fuel is derived from oil. Air
chapter 4 it stated that "Economic and social impacts of possible higher fuel prices
The general impact of a long term higher oil price would be reduced economic growth. A price increase transfers income from oil-consuming to oil-producing nations, and the net economic effect is negative. Industries in which fuel is a higher proportion of input costs will be relatively more affected. These include transport (particularly aviation), mining and agriculture.
and further on...
"More than 95 per cent of Australia’s transport fuel is derived from oil. Air
transport is the most fuel intensive segment of this industry; hence it is expected to be the most adversely affected industry. Modelling of a permanent doubling in the world oil price, commissioned by the Queensland Government, projected air transport activity to be some 27 per cent lower by 2016-17 than it would otherwise have been. Commentators expressed concern about a lack of preparations in the aviation industry for the severe impact of rising oil prices.
Air freight as well as passenger travel was expected to be adversely affected".
Website is http://www.aph.gov.au/Senate/committ...ort/report.pdf for those who may be interested.
An interesting wrap up of the report is at http://www.aspo-australia.org.au/content/view/82/1/
Shall be interesting to see how it pans out.......
Cheers
CaptR
Website is http://www.aph.gov.au/Senate/committ...ort/report.pdf for those who may be interested.
An interesting wrap up of the report is at http://www.aspo-australia.org.au/content/view/82/1/
Shall be interesting to see how it pans out.......
Cheers
CaptR
I am only up to section three so this may change my initial outlook. This nothing but a cut and paste report. There has only been a glossing over the 27 provinces in Australia's economic zone that hold a possibility of a super giant field. There is a lot of noise about a large field between NZ and Tas that will be interesting if it is revealed. The biggest problem with Australian fields is the relative secrecy of any discovery made, At most a ten line article in the business section is all that denotes a large find. Bodella South in particular. If it wasn't for the media getting hold of news about Moonie, it would never have been developed. Oil and Gas around the Surat basin has been known about since 1900. Roma had reticulated gas lighting at that time.
The largley US owned exploration companies in Australia will ALWAYS hold out for big tax breaks. (Anyone ever heard of Haliburton?
) The big oil companies do not hold the domestic market in high esteem. The big bucks is shifting bulk petajoules to China for bugger all unit cost. This is criminal, our reserves could keep this country going for another two hundred years and this is just from the NW shelf. Infrastructure costs prohibit this scenario. If we sold every last drop of gas to the US( If Arnie lets them that is) NW Shelf reserves would only last a relative couple of years. Like everywhere on the planet there has been little new infrastructure built.....the report, oh yeah, the report.
Peak oil proponents slag off on anything that isn't light sweet crude. Shale oil, as pointed out by Chimbu Chuckles on another thread could last this planet for a very long time. Technology currently has a low recovery rate. However, like all adaptable creatures technolgy will also find a better way of making a mouse trap. The Canadian fields are HUGE!. Only thing stopping Venezuela is politics, if it changes more money will flow. Who wants to spend a buck and have it nationalised. There is a nice bit in there from BP that shows "Provable" reserves are still increasing compared to production so at the moment it is a good thing. As the price goes up, more fields will MIRRACULOUSLY appear from nowhere. Deep fields in the Gulf of Mexico and off West Africa ( A real biggy there that hasn't even been drilled on yet).
Coal to fuel (like the Germans did in WW2) and gas to fuel using the Fischer-Tropisch method with a modern twist will prove effective. Note, how peak oil shoots this down by trumping with the carbon tax card. Who says it isn't a disincentive to an economy. Brown coal isn't just in Latrobe, try looking under the Simpson Desert National Park and under The Pilliga. The resource is there!
You can smell a certain Qld Nat senator in the bit about Ethanol from cellulous, that is going to force up stock feed prices like you will not believe and isn't realy necessary to meet the 350Ml a year threshold. I personally like to able to make my own brew of biodiesel but is only enough to keep the fourbe going but leaves the big fella that I work with on the pump variety. To feed a working vehicle would have me sourcing feedstock for five days a week to feed a truck on haulage for the full week so economics of time and wages kill it. However, for a price of 25 to 30cpl in the tank it is very economical for a four wheel drive. It smells nice as well as makes me a greeny too
Smells like a fish and chip shop
Biggest competition for feedstock is companies buying the stuff to convert to stockfeed in Japan.
So far I am not impressed with the reporting. Shall read some more
The largley US owned exploration companies in Australia will ALWAYS hold out for big tax breaks. (Anyone ever heard of Haliburton?
) The big oil companies do not hold the domestic market in high esteem. The big bucks is shifting bulk petajoules to China for bugger all unit cost. This is criminal, our reserves could keep this country going for another two hundred years and this is just from the NW shelf. Infrastructure costs prohibit this scenario. If we sold every last drop of gas to the US( If Arnie lets them that is) NW Shelf reserves would only last a relative couple of years. Like everywhere on the planet there has been little new infrastructure built.....the report, oh yeah, the report.Peak oil proponents slag off on anything that isn't light sweet crude. Shale oil, as pointed out by Chimbu Chuckles on another thread could last this planet for a very long time. Technology currently has a low recovery rate. However, like all adaptable creatures technolgy will also find a better way of making a mouse trap. The Canadian fields are HUGE!. Only thing stopping Venezuela is politics, if it changes more money will flow. Who wants to spend a buck and have it nationalised. There is a nice bit in there from BP that shows "Provable" reserves are still increasing compared to production so at the moment it is a good thing. As the price goes up, more fields will MIRRACULOUSLY appear from nowhere. Deep fields in the Gulf of Mexico and off West Africa ( A real biggy there that hasn't even been drilled on yet).
Coal to fuel (like the Germans did in WW2) and gas to fuel using the Fischer-Tropisch method with a modern twist will prove effective. Note, how peak oil shoots this down by trumping with the carbon tax card. Who says it isn't a disincentive to an economy. Brown coal isn't just in Latrobe, try looking under the Simpson Desert National Park and under The Pilliga. The resource is there!
You can smell a certain Qld Nat senator in the bit about Ethanol from cellulous, that is going to force up stock feed prices like you will not believe and isn't realy necessary to meet the 350Ml a year threshold. I personally like to able to make my own brew of biodiesel but is only enough to keep the fourbe going but leaves the big fella that I work with on the pump variety. To feed a working vehicle would have me sourcing feedstock for five days a week to feed a truck on haulage for the full week so economics of time and wages kill it. However, for a price of 25 to 30cpl in the tank it is very economical for a four wheel drive. It smells nice as well as makes me a greeny too
Smells like a fish and chip shop Biggest competition for feedstock is companies buying the stuff to convert to stockfeed in Japan.So far I am not impressed with the reporting. Shall read some more
Grandpa Aerotart
Ahhh CaptR....I have been wondering where you been hiding.
ASPO...about the biggest Peak Oil doomsayer organisation on the planet.
I would like to point out at this stage that ASPO luminaries are the people spouting about depopulating (that'd be mass euthanasia) the world so the chosen few get to survive and repopulate the world...presumably with 100% 'enlightened' non energy sinners.
ASPO...about the biggest Peak Oil doomsayer organisation on the planet.
This is the first time any Australian parliament has recognised Peak Oil as real. (looks more like an each way bet to me
The report is a most useful step forward. There is a lot of very valuable information in the depths of the report, giving a more balanced approach than the Executive Summary. How many people will read the depths of the report? Based on history too few
The report does follow somewhat the same path our conservative government has been taking for years with Global Warming, of tending to downplay the risks and consider only the best-case scenario. almost spat out in disgust
Committee Chair, Government Senator Bill Heffernan, said in his tabling speech that Peak Oil was forecast in 20-40 years, if I recall his words correctly. This is in contrast to the many reliable forecasts that global oil production may probably peak in say 3-5 years or thereabouts. (appocolyptic language Inquiry originator, Senator Milne (Greens) was much better informed.Says who? In her summary speech she suggested that we may well be at Peak Oil now.
Appocolyptic language
The report downplays the documented risks, gives high credence to biased US Government information and policies rather than to the warnings from independent petroleum scientists. The International Energy Agency is the OECD oil consuming nations’ counterbalance to the OPEC cartel,(note nasty conotation of the word 'cartel') so it is far from unbiased. (in your view because it doesn't gell with your adgenda The IEA view is given far more credence and coverage by the Senate Committee than would be proper in an independent assessment of our oil vulnerability. However, the detailed report is more encouraging than one would assume from reading just the executive summary. Just like the IPCC really
ASPO-Australia calls for an Intergovernmental Panel on Oil Depletion to be formed under the existing IPCC structure. (God no, not them) It should provide a science-based view of the world oil production data,(and we have seen how good they are at Climate, what hope oil?) as free as possible from the political constraints which have influenced the
Australian Senate report and also the US Government and IEA oil production estimates. (but political influences by Greens are ok...they are sure to know all the facts, the Govts mentioned couldn't possibly know them
We also call on Australians to challenge the inertia and complacency of Federal and State Governments on the Peak Oil issue, just as is now happening with Climate Change.That'd be the appocolyptic double whammy then We should be preparing, well in advance, for the Petrol Droughts which are likely to come far sooner (more appocolyptic language) than Senator Heffernan would have us believe.
The report is a most useful step forward. There is a lot of very valuable information in the depths of the report, giving a more balanced approach than the Executive Summary. How many people will read the depths of the report? Based on history too few
The report does follow somewhat the same path our conservative government has been taking for years with Global Warming, of tending to downplay the risks and consider only the best-case scenario. almost spat out in disgust
Committee Chair, Government Senator Bill Heffernan, said in his tabling speech that Peak Oil was forecast in 20-40 years, if I recall his words correctly. This is in contrast to the many reliable forecasts that global oil production may probably peak in say 3-5 years or thereabouts. (appocolyptic language Inquiry originator, Senator Milne (Greens) was much better informed.Says who? In her summary speech she suggested that we may well be at Peak Oil now.
Appocolyptic language
The report downplays the documented risks, gives high credence to biased US Government information and policies rather than to the warnings from independent petroleum scientists. The International Energy Agency is the OECD oil consuming nations’ counterbalance to the OPEC cartel,(note nasty conotation of the word 'cartel') so it is far from unbiased. (in your view because it doesn't gell with your adgenda The IEA view is given far more credence and coverage by the Senate Committee than would be proper in an independent assessment of our oil vulnerability.
However, the detailed report is more encouraging than one would assume from reading just the executive summary. Just like the IPCC really ASPO-Australia calls for an Intergovernmental Panel on Oil Depletion to be formed under the existing IPCC structure. (God no, not them) It should provide a science-based view of the world oil production data,(and we have seen how good they are at Climate, what hope oil?) as free as possible from the political constraints which have influenced the
Australian Senate report and also the US Government and IEA oil production estimates. (but political influences by Greens are ok...they are sure to know all the facts, the Govts mentioned couldn't possibly know them
We also call on Australians to challenge the inertia and complacency of Federal and State Governments on the Peak Oil issue, just as is now happening with Climate Change.That'd be the appocolyptic double whammy then
We should be preparing, well in advance, for the Petrol Droughts which are likely to come far sooner (more appocolyptic language) than Senator Heffernan would have us believe.
Last edited by Chimbu chuckles; 13th Feb 2007 at 08:56.
Grandpa Aerotart
Impressive resource figures.
The numbers on oil shale resources around the world are nothing short of staggering. Most of the following estimates are drawn from Duncan and Swanson (1965) unless otherwise cited. Oil shale deposits of Late Permian age in southern Brazil have been estimated to contain 800 billion barrels oil equivalent in shale that yields 10 to 25 gallons per ton, and 3.2 trillion barrels in possible extensions. Resources that yield 5 to 10 gallons of oil per ton were estimated to hold 4 trillion barrels of oil equivalent in possible extensions.
A 200 square-mile Middle Tertiary lake basin deposit in southwestern Montana has approximately 1000 feet of sediments which have not been appraised in detail but may contain tens of billion barrels of oil potential.
Weeks (1960) stated "possible potential resources" of higher grade oil shale in the U. S. are approximately 2 trillion barrels of oil equivalent, and 12 trillion barrels in the world. Duncan and Swanson (1965) estimated a world oil shale resource of 2.1 quadrillion barrels. Estimates of the volume of potential oil in the U. S. shale deposits have grown steadily since they were first studied in detail by the USGS in the early 1900’s. Duncan (1981) states "The oil shale deposits of the United States can be considered collectively as an enormous low-grade source of oil, hydrocarbon gas, or solid fuel. Deposits with an estimated yield of 10 gallons or more oil per ton of rock contain more than 2 trillion barrels; their possible extensions may contain an additional 3 trillion barrels; and, speculatively, other unappraised deposits may contain several times as much oil."
The numbers on oil shale resources around the world are nothing short of staggering. Most of the following estimates are drawn from Duncan and Swanson (1965) unless otherwise cited. Oil shale deposits of Late Permian age in southern Brazil have been estimated to contain 800 billion barrels oil equivalent in shale that yields 10 to 25 gallons per ton, and 3.2 trillion barrels in possible extensions. Resources that yield 5 to 10 gallons of oil per ton were estimated to hold 4 trillion barrels of oil equivalent in possible extensions.
A 200 square-mile Middle Tertiary lake basin deposit in southwestern Montana has approximately 1000 feet of sediments which have not been appraised in detail but may contain tens of billion barrels of oil potential.
Weeks (1960) stated "possible potential resources" of higher grade oil shale in the U. S. are approximately 2 trillion barrels of oil equivalent, and 12 trillion barrels in the world. Duncan and Swanson (1965) estimated a world oil shale resource of 2.1 quadrillion barrels. Estimates of the volume of potential oil in the U. S. shale deposits have grown steadily since they were first studied in detail by the USGS in the early 1900’s. Duncan (1981) states "The oil shale deposits of the United States can be considered collectively as an enormous low-grade source of oil, hydrocarbon gas, or solid fuel. Deposits with an estimated yield of 10 gallons or more oil per ton of rock contain more than 2 trillion barrels; their possible extensions may contain an additional 3 trillion barrels; and, speculatively, other unappraised deposits may contain several times as much oil."
Do I need to quote the doomsayers as far back as the opening decade of the 20th century who have been predicting '13 years until no oil' over and over?
Certainly the oil shale, tar sands etc pose some issues still to be resolved before they become truly viable as an effective replacement for light sweet crude...but we have several hundred years before it becomes an issue...not 3-5
Think back over the technical advances in the last 100 yrs and then tell me you're prepared to bet against mankind coming up with the goods before, LONG before, all the light sweet and moderately heavier oils are even close to depleted.
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Wait & See
Everyone is entitled to their own opinion about peak oil and what it may or may not mean. As long as people can look at both sides and make up their mind.
Many people in PPRUNE had different and at times, strong opinions re global warming over the previous years, however there is virtually nil left now who say it isn't an issue of concern.
I feel that over the next few years peak oil will eventually overtake global warming as the predominent issue of our time - this will be reflected in politics both domestically and internationally. When it does start to impact - the aviation community will feel its consequences.
The proof will be in the pudding - lets wait and see who is right....
Cheers
CaptR
Many people in PPRUNE had different and at times, strong opinions re global warming over the previous years, however there is virtually nil left now who say it isn't an issue of concern.
I feel that over the next few years peak oil will eventually overtake global warming as the predominent issue of our time - this will be reflected in politics both domestically and internationally. When it does start to impact - the aviation community will feel its consequences.
The proof will be in the pudding - lets wait and see who is right....
Cheers
CaptR
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Chuckles mate
Just come back from Brisvegas visiting grandaughter Chloe Anne and 30s something parents with a 5 degrees inc. a PhD between em, one of the degrees with Hons in Environmental Management.
The Global warming debate was much in the news and even L'il Johnny seems to have been spooked by the Stern report.
Anyroad I attempted a wide ranging discussion on the subject and how it may or may not affect our simply beautiful baby Chloe who, on the current longevity stats is likely to see out this century.
Result, global warming is not negotiable, its my generations (a boomer) fault, I have absolutley no idea of which I speak (as a father of three I thought I already knew that
) and anyway leave it up to us to sort out. Peak oil?? same.
It's funny that generation is soooooo bright and absolutely certain of themselves its scary, but sometimes they just dont get it. Mind you they might have learnt it off their boomer parents.
I also learnt over said weekend, that its the Gen Ys (I gotta son whose one of those) that are the real worry, they really dont care what happens they just want to "get themselves set" at whatever cost before it all turns to whatever grade of sh!t happens. "I'm here for a good time not a long time" was actually invented for them.
Just come back from Brisvegas visiting grandaughter Chloe Anne and 30s something parents with a 5 degrees inc. a PhD between em, one of the degrees with Hons in Environmental Management.
The Global warming debate was much in the news and even L'il Johnny seems to have been spooked by the Stern report.
Anyroad I attempted a wide ranging discussion on the subject and how it may or may not affect our simply beautiful baby Chloe who, on the current longevity stats is likely to see out this century.
Result, global warming is not negotiable, its my generations (a boomer) fault, I have absolutley no idea of which I speak (as a father of three I thought I already knew that
) and anyway leave it up to us to sort out. Peak oil?? same.It's funny that generation is soooooo bright and absolutely certain of themselves its scary, but sometimes they just dont get it. Mind you they might have learnt it off their boomer parents.
I also learnt over said weekend, that its the Gen Ys (I gotta son whose one of those) that are the real worry, they really dont care what happens they just want to "get themselves set" at whatever cost before it all turns to whatever grade of sh!t happens.
"I'm here for a good time not a long time" was actually invented for them.
Grandpa Aerotart
Many people in PPRUNE had different and at times, strong opinions re global warming over the previous years, however there is virtually nil left now who say it isn't an issue of concern.
You really need to read 'The skeptical environmentalist' and then come back and talk about the subject with just a few more facts under your belt.Mate even if oil supplies were a near term issue, like 20 yrs away, Australia is awash with energy.
Australia has an abundance of natural gas...we could run every form of road transport on that for 100s of years.
Australia has an abundance of coal...we could liquify it and run jets etc on that instead of exporting it..as can China and the US who have coal deposits that make Australia's coal abundance look pathetic. Suggesting that coal is environmental public enemy No 1 is to just deny the technology...fly past any coal powered power station in Australia and all you see is a little steam...the nasties all get filtered out.
Australia has an abundance of solar.
Australia has an abundance of uranium...although I am personally ambivalent about nuclear power and I don't think we need it I would agree to it just to piss off the greens.
Australia has an abundance of shale oil.
We have some of the lightest sweetest crude in Bass straight. New oil is being 'found' all the time...some of it is actually new finds and some is old finds that they capped years ago and didn't tell anyone about. The potential super giant under the Tasman between Australia and the Kiwi south Island is one of those...a big US oil company let the lease expire or some such feckup and a small Kiwi company moved in and grabbed it...been a HUGE court case about it in NZ...it's in deep water but it is there.
As mentioned by ozbuspilot there are vaste areas left to be exploited around Australia...and the world...the current crunch worldwide is NOT about a lack of crude it is about a lack of infrastructure and because the oil companies don't go out and look for more unless there is a good compelling reason...and at $10/barrel until just a very few years ago there was no compelling reasons. The oil industry has tested the waters of what people will pay and are now trying to hold the prices artifially high for as long as possible. Current proven reserves exceed all the oil we have ever used to date by 5 x.
Australia has an abundance of water but not the infrastructure to make best use of it...and as a result most is just wasted.
What do the greens and ASPO nutcases come up with?
Windfarms that kill more birdlife than the Exxon Valdez
Bio diesel that returns .75 unit of energy for every unit expended to produce it...even the deepest deepwater oil returns between 8 and 30 barrels for each barrel expended in the effort, depending on how deep it is.
Ethanol...you put ethanol in your fuel and you get significantly lower mileage. So to appease the environmentalists Govts mandate it and we get even less bang for our $ +10% Gst
If they took catalitic converters off cars and put lead back into it that would increase everyone's mileage by 10-15%. I should think if oil was a scarce as the greens say they would welcome a 15% increase in efficiency...but then they are greens. Lead pollution from cars was always just another greeny myth blown out of all proportion to reality
If you take away all the fuel taxes...some of which are greeny taxes, like diesel being more expensive than petrol
petrol would be about 50 cents a liter and diesel less again. It is a economic fact of life that things which are in high demand and scarce cost lots of money...50 cents a liter doesn't indicate scarce to me The Peak Oil myth is over 100 yrs old...it keeps being trotted out and it keeps not happening.
100 years ago they didn't have the technology we do today to go and find oil and get it out of the ground....but mercifully they also didn't have the technology 100 years ago to spread the doomsayer BS far and wide...lucky them
Sorry if I can't get worked up about a problem that doesn't exist.
Gaunty
Amazing how every generation thinks the previous ones had no clue about the world around them and only 'they' have all the answers. I suppose we were no different...we just lacked the really good doomsayer bs to get worked up about
Last edited by Chimbu chuckles; 14th Feb 2007 at 09:19.
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Australia has an abundance of natural gas
I've mentioned this incident in another thread elsewhere but it is appropriate here; Back in late 1981 I started work on a Seismic Survey crew 'out in the bush' way west of Alice Springs and on my first day on the job the Crew Manager was driving me and a few other crew members to the camp site when he said that he wanted to show us something.
He drove off the narrow track we were on and down an almost completely overgrown seismic line until we came to a capped gas well. He pointed at it and said that it had been drilled and capped back in the early 1960s and then just left alone. But his next words came as a bit of a surprise. He said,
"There is enough gas in that well to serve a city the size of Melbourne for fifty years!!!"
It still stretches credulity, but he had been in the industry for nearly 20 years at the time and he still is now so I guess he may know of what he spoke.
And as far as I know that well is still unused!
