OzJet Start Date Keeps Slipping
Thread Starter
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 704
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
OzJet Start Date Keeps Slipping
Article in SMH says OzJet might not get up until early next year (denied by the CEO, of course)
http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/...772640929.html
Are CASA going to get really, really, maybe overly careful following the recent rash of unscheduled contacts with ground experienced by older 737-200?
Is a 30-31 year old aircraft really a problem, if it's properly maintained?
Is the "age of the aircraft" now a key differentiator between OzJet, VB and QF? Is that a reason for QF upgrading all its old 737-400's to NG?
This wouldn't be getting political, would it?
Can't help feeling if VB just formulated a properly competitive business-targeted product they could head off OzJet at the pass.
OK, so now shoot me down...
VHCU
http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/...772640929.html
Are CASA going to get really, really, maybe overly careful following the recent rash of unscheduled contacts with ground experienced by older 737-200?
Is a 30-31 year old aircraft really a problem, if it's properly maintained?
Is the "age of the aircraft" now a key differentiator between OzJet, VB and QF? Is that a reason for QF upgrading all its old 737-400's to NG?
This wouldn't be getting political, would it?
Can't help feeling if VB just formulated a properly competitive business-targeted product they could head off OzJet at the pass.
OK, so now shoot me down...
VHCU
Join Date: Apr 2000
Location: fantasy island
Posts: 212
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Why would anyone be surprised about that revelation ?
I wouldn't buy tickets on any airline that hasn't rolled a wheel.
OzJet chief executive Hans van Pelt insisted the airline still planned to start selling tickets by early October after gaining permission to launch services.
Evertonian
What is the percentage of those 30-31 year old aircraft that have "collided" compared with those still serviceable? I think I'd be more concerned with public perception of the airworthiness of these craft, rather than CASA's "informed" opinion...if I was Ozjet.
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Sydney, Australia
Posts: 590
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
My belief is that Mr Stoddart has woefully misread the market.
No loyalty scheme, affiliation, constant delays and base changes, lies about having already sold tickets (name 1 person Mr Pelt), 30+ year old aircraft etc etc etc.
One or two maybe, but when added up this doesnt bode well.
Besides, with so few aircraft all you need is one breakdown and the whole day's schedule ist kapputt!!!
No loyalty scheme, affiliation, constant delays and base changes, lies about having already sold tickets (name 1 person Mr Pelt), 30+ year old aircraft etc etc etc.
One or two maybe, but when added up this doesnt bode well.
Besides, with so few aircraft all you need is one breakdown and the whole day's schedule ist kapputt!!!
Guest
Posts: n/a
Strategy is a Mess
I would have to agree, Timmeeee. Let's not forget though, he is a business man. Therefore, he is the one who will end up with egg on his face if Ozjet fails. But he is an honest man of good repute.
In any race, he knows he can also be the loser. He is prepared to face that, and so must the pit crew. However, the consequence of his ambitous foray into the golden triangle (Melbourne-Sydney-Brisbane) may not yet be realised by him. Fear nothing and you could risk losing everything because of your blindness. Plan wisely and there can be room for everybody.
His reputation presents the industry with a dilemma because he has endorsed the need for such a product over and above the behaviour of the existing markets (in terms of demand and supply of a pure business product in a medium price range) and in doing so is urging the market to take advantage of it. It is this fundamental supposed misconception of the market which may be identified by Qantas and Virgin Blue (and to some degree Jetstar) as being a major threat to them. Accordingly they will position themselves to protect their market share in the event the concept gains momentum.
The frequency with which Ozjet wants to operate will compete very strongly with Qantas' City Flyer and this product is well positioned to meet the Ozjet services head on. Sustained and proactive marketing would result in Ozjet failing to secure sufficient revenue to meet its marketing objectives. These are indicators not un-typical of the Reid and Gray eras. The capacity that Ozjet is proposing to dump into Melbourne -Sydney is there in the long term to be taken but one needs to understand that the growth and uptake is not unilateral.
Whilst there may be sufficient entrainment of Qantas and Virgin defectors with the sweeteners currently on offer, it is my considered view they are not sustainable and this can result in yet another Compass style fall out. If that happens we could see further strenthening of Ozjet rivals in the market with coincident barriers to new entrants for several years to come. This is not too disimilar to what happened in the US and Europe.
On a scale of (Lowest Risk of Failure) 1-10 (Highest Risk of Failure), I would rate (in my opinion) Ozjet on about 8 or 9. This is based largely on my perception that any risk to Qantas would be largely defended, the company has openly announced that it is still developing its marketing plan (and therefore has not had the time to research it well enough) and that the market is bearish about the product.
In any race, he knows he can also be the loser. He is prepared to face that, and so must the pit crew. However, the consequence of his ambitous foray into the golden triangle (Melbourne-Sydney-Brisbane) may not yet be realised by him. Fear nothing and you could risk losing everything because of your blindness. Plan wisely and there can be room for everybody.
His reputation presents the industry with a dilemma because he has endorsed the need for such a product over and above the behaviour of the existing markets (in terms of demand and supply of a pure business product in a medium price range) and in doing so is urging the market to take advantage of it. It is this fundamental supposed misconception of the market which may be identified by Qantas and Virgin Blue (and to some degree Jetstar) as being a major threat to them. Accordingly they will position themselves to protect their market share in the event the concept gains momentum.
The frequency with which Ozjet wants to operate will compete very strongly with Qantas' City Flyer and this product is well positioned to meet the Ozjet services head on. Sustained and proactive marketing would result in Ozjet failing to secure sufficient revenue to meet its marketing objectives. These are indicators not un-typical of the Reid and Gray eras. The capacity that Ozjet is proposing to dump into Melbourne -Sydney is there in the long term to be taken but one needs to understand that the growth and uptake is not unilateral.
Whilst there may be sufficient entrainment of Qantas and Virgin defectors with the sweeteners currently on offer, it is my considered view they are not sustainable and this can result in yet another Compass style fall out. If that happens we could see further strenthening of Ozjet rivals in the market with coincident barriers to new entrants for several years to come. This is not too disimilar to what happened in the US and Europe.
On a scale of (Lowest Risk of Failure) 1-10 (Highest Risk of Failure), I would rate (in my opinion) Ozjet on about 8 or 9. This is based largely on my perception that any risk to Qantas would be largely defended, the company has openly announced that it is still developing its marketing plan (and therefore has not had the time to research it well enough) and that the market is bearish about the product.
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Next to Bay 8
Posts: 247
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I think you'll find Mr Stoddart just sold his F1 team for a pretty penny. Before the race last night, he said that he was now focused on OzJet... He's taking it seriously.
Now whether or not he's read the market correctly is another question entirely.
Now whether or not he's read the market correctly is another question entirely.
Guest
Posts: n/a
Absolutely Seriously
Mr Stoddart will need to make the biggest decision of his life. Whether to support Ozjet with that money or to keep it to support his EAL group. If I were in his boots, I would look at focussing on the need to maintain liquidity because his assets would be revalued at much less in a bearish market.
We do not have sufficient informatiion about the tax implications of the transaction in the sale of the Minardi team but assuming there were none, I would at least start to hedge my fuel by purchasing some call options or warrants in the commodities such as Crude and Kerosene up to about USD1.75Mil (max 5%), maintain a cash reserve of at least USD20Mil (max 60%), and buy some commercial real-estate, that can be used as collateral, with the rest.
However, the pressure will bear upon Ozjet in the coming months as the unexpected delays present Ozjet with an unsustainable cashflow crisis.
Ozjet would have been much better off to have further advanced its AOC application before hiring all those people.
We do not have sufficient informatiion about the tax implications of the transaction in the sale of the Minardi team but assuming there were none, I would at least start to hedge my fuel by purchasing some call options or warrants in the commodities such as Crude and Kerosene up to about USD1.75Mil (max 5%), maintain a cash reserve of at least USD20Mil (max 60%), and buy some commercial real-estate, that can be used as collateral, with the rest.
However, the pressure will bear upon Ozjet in the coming months as the unexpected delays present Ozjet with an unsustainable cashflow crisis.
Ozjet would have been much better off to have further advanced its AOC application before hiring all those people.
But he is an honest man of good repute.
Guest
Posts: n/a
Ageing
Icarus2001, I think the journalists are using "ageing" as an adjective rather than a noun. If used as a noun it might suggest the planes are in the process of growing old gracefully and they could still be in good condition. However, the fact that "ageing" is used that way might suggest the intention is to focus on their age so tend to think its an adjective.
Yeah, but it's funny when you look at it like you have. Sort of like getting introduced to someone new and saying my name is "ageing Icarus2001" . Sounds odd doesn't it?
Yeah, but it's funny when you look at it like you have. Sort of like getting introduced to someone new and saying my name is "ageing Icarus2001" . Sounds odd doesn't it?
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: South of the River
Posts: 145
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
......
The time for Ozjet to worry is when a Mr S Woodland is appointed to a senior position.......
The sensible thing for PGS to do is to pay off the EAAC / EAL staff what they are owed ,me included !!!!
But then when did people like him ever do the right thing ?
You ain't seen me right.....
Daft Wader
The sensible thing for PGS to do is to pay off the EAAC / EAL staff what they are owed ,me included !!!!
But then when did people like him ever do the right thing ?
You ain't seen me right.....
Daft Wader
Guest
Posts: n/a
Wow
Wow, so pleased to hear from you Daft Wader! Tell us more, I get the feeling there is trouble brewing over this. And, I hadn't thought of it until today but the girls at the coffee shop said there was trouble brewing in the management ranks in Melbourne and some big knob is about to pull the pin on it. It was sort of said loosely and it didn't twig but now your comment seems to be melding that. Maybe their chief pilot or CEO ???
It sounds like if he has left people without their entitlements that's probably worthy of mention.
It sounds like if he has left people without their entitlements that's probably worthy of mention.
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Australia
Posts: 96
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Wow, so pleased to hear from you Legal_Counsel! Tell us more.
What are the girls at the coffee shop saying?
And also what is your pissed boss at the pub saying?
Do tell us more oh font of all knowledge....
Mate I'm glad you are so intimate with his business dealings, im sure this is small fry to him considering what he has been involved with....
What are the girls at the coffee shop saying?
And also what is your pissed boss at the pub saying?
Do tell us more oh font of all knowledge....
Mr Stoddart will need to make the biggest decision of his life.
Thread Starter
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 704
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Time to bring this thread out of the coffee shop, monkey or no...
Of course not. I guess the newspaper would be sued if they wrote "clapped-out" which is clearly what they meant.
Fair go, at least they're not "suddenly plunging in a death spiral" 737's. One hopes. Anyway, "ageing" is the present participle, whether it is being used as an adjective in this case, who knows.
What might be more to the point is that these 737's have been ageing for some considerable time now and in fact they may well be considered truly quite well aged, a bit like a steak at Vlado's. Or a dead cat on the M25.
At least they haven't had the Hawaiian Airlines conversion job done to them.
Anyone know the age of the oldest flying 737's? Are the OzJet 737's any older than those being operated by Air EnZed on domestic services?
Huh? Care to explain?
As a pilot, should I operate a policy of not flying any aircraft that is older than I am? That might lock me out of some exciting opportunities... And the same policy would probably lock every kid out his/her local flying school, and lots of the RAAF pilots out of their Pigs, an maybe some of the other bits of ADF flying kit.
Nobody has picked up on one of my previous points - why doesn't Virgin Blue try to grab more of the business market by offering a more business-orientated product? If they did, OzJet would be pretty hammered trying to carve something out of that niche.
Or maybe they are going to - to coincide with OzJet's eventual launch?
VHCU
Does anyone know of any 737s still flying that are not ageing?
the journalists are using "ageing" as an adjective
What might be more to the point is that these 737's have been ageing for some considerable time now and in fact they may well be considered truly quite well aged, a bit like a steak at Vlado's. Or a dead cat on the M25.
At least they haven't had the Hawaiian Airlines conversion job done to them.
Anyone know the age of the oldest flying 737's? Are the OzJet 737's any older than those being operated by Air EnZed on domestic services?
The time for Ozjet to worry is when a Mr S Woodland is appointed to a senior position...
As a pilot, should I operate a policy of not flying any aircraft that is older than I am? That might lock me out of some exciting opportunities... And the same policy would probably lock every kid out his/her local flying school, and lots of the RAAF pilots out of their Pigs, an maybe some of the other bits of ADF flying kit.
Nobody has picked up on one of my previous points - why doesn't Virgin Blue try to grab more of the business market by offering a more business-orientated product? If they did, OzJet would be pretty hammered trying to carve something out of that niche.
Or maybe they are going to - to coincide with OzJet's eventual launch?
VHCU
Guest
Posts: n/a
Business Market is thin in Fully Flexible
Actually, good point VH-Cheer Up. I believe the reason is that most of the business market flies in the non-flexible fare zone these days and it is one of the reasons why the market will be hard to extract as a cost-effective group.
Ozjet, I think, has erred in targeting that market and Qantas will atleast defend its position. Even so Ozjet will try to take credit for changing that, but it will be short lived as its Dutch investor gets itchy feet.
The damage to Ozjet revenue will be hard to recover and typical recovery time frames for a solid campaign of just 1 month is 6 months. And the best time for Qantas to do this is right now in advance for 6 months and it will send Ozjet spiralling into debt and out of business within 12 months.
On the further note, of ageing aircraft, it is my view that provided they are correctly maintained and flown, there shouldn't be a problem. My big beef with these is that they will pollute our great city of Sydney even more than ever and I think it is time we took a stand on that.
Anyway, to be honest, if they are hiring inexperienced pilots from the regionals I wonder how long it will be before the poor safety record of general aviation creeps into Australian mainline operations.
What do you think?
Ozjet, I think, has erred in targeting that market and Qantas will atleast defend its position. Even so Ozjet will try to take credit for changing that, but it will be short lived as its Dutch investor gets itchy feet.
The damage to Ozjet revenue will be hard to recover and typical recovery time frames for a solid campaign of just 1 month is 6 months. And the best time for Qantas to do this is right now in advance for 6 months and it will send Ozjet spiralling into debt and out of business within 12 months.
On the further note, of ageing aircraft, it is my view that provided they are correctly maintained and flown, there shouldn't be a problem. My big beef with these is that they will pollute our great city of Sydney even more than ever and I think it is time we took a stand on that.
Anyway, to be honest, if they are hiring inexperienced pilots from the regionals I wonder how long it will be before the poor safety record of general aviation creeps into Australian mainline operations.
What do you think?
Thread Starter
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 704
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Legal Counsel:
- agreed, not a safety problem. But older aircraft, no matter how fastidiously maintained, will always be less reliable than their younger counterpart. Unreliability = timetable impact. Not what you want in a business-focused niche market.
Not sure whether that's wind-up... I'm sure they will be very careful about whom they hire, their experience level, and the level of "grey hair" on the flight deck. I understood the CP had an excellent reputation and an outstanding past career record including time with the regulator. Must admit this is one risk I just can't see OzJet taking. Am I being naive, or are you being a bit mischievous?
What are you basing that on? I'm sure there's a mix of price-takers but when your business has to be done flexibly, you're going to need to buy at least some flexible fares. Even VB's higher fares allow flexibility (in fact so do their cheaper fares, at a cost, which equates almost exactly to paying for the flexibility at the time you actually need it).
I'm not suggesting a return to the "flying pigs upfront" syndrome. Just that if a fully-flexible OW ticket MEL-SYD on VB is $240 approx, would you pay say $300 0r $350 to get a meal, a drink, and some more hip/leg space? I would.
I think half the reason a business person takes a cheap fare is because it's on offer and there's no difference in what they get for the lower price, aside from some flexibility, which they can generally buy later, at a price, if needed.
Me, I'd pay a bit more - but not a heap more - for a bit more space, service, and an airport lounge that wasn't like a Greyhound bus terminal. I think it's exactly that need that OzJet has identified, and Virgin has ignored. QF offers it at at a high price (J Class, QF Club) and offers a bit of it to everyone as an in-flight differentiator (snack/drink service).
OzJet has correctly identified the required differentiation, but looks like potentially blowing the execution with the fleet age. Or, with the 146, the fleet choice.
Virgin has just blithely missed the point of that part of the market, preferring to focus on the price. Why they bother with their stupid, ineffective and misleading "service" focused advertising, beats me.
{endrant}
VHCU
provided they are correctly maintained and flown, there shouldn't be a problem
if they are hiring inexperienced pilots from the regionals I wonder how long it will be before the poor safety record of general aviation creeps into Australian mainline operations
most of the business market flies in the non-flexible fare zone these days
I'm not suggesting a return to the "flying pigs upfront" syndrome. Just that if a fully-flexible OW ticket MEL-SYD on VB is $240 approx, would you pay say $300 0r $350 to get a meal, a drink, and some more hip/leg space? I would.
I think half the reason a business person takes a cheap fare is because it's on offer and there's no difference in what they get for the lower price, aside from some flexibility, which they can generally buy later, at a price, if needed.
Me, I'd pay a bit more - but not a heap more - for a bit more space, service, and an airport lounge that wasn't like a Greyhound bus terminal. I think it's exactly that need that OzJet has identified, and Virgin has ignored. QF offers it at at a high price (J Class, QF Club) and offers a bit of it to everyone as an in-flight differentiator (snack/drink service).
OzJet has correctly identified the required differentiation, but looks like potentially blowing the execution with the fleet age. Or, with the 146, the fleet choice.
Virgin has just blithely missed the point of that part of the market, preferring to focus on the price. Why they bother with their stupid, ineffective and misleading "service" focused advertising, beats me.
{endrant}
VHCU
Last edited by VH-Cheer Up; 14th Sep 2005 at 02:31.
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Alice Springs
Posts: 1,744
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Most of Australia's aircraft are old. The qantas 747 that is parked at longreach had flown over 90,000 hours.
Most of our military aircraft are as old as, the GA fleet.
Virgin has the young aeroplanes.
But the pilots are getting younger.
And the accident rate seems to be related to the age of the pilots, not the aeroplanes.Remember the TV commercial." Young drivers are the most skilled. They are also the most killed".
Most of our military aircraft are as old as, the GA fleet.
Virgin has the young aeroplanes.
But the pilots are getting younger.
And the accident rate seems to be related to the age of the pilots, not the aeroplanes.Remember the TV commercial." Young drivers are the most skilled. They are also the most killed".