Boom times for pilots are here - Maybe?
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Boom times for pilots are here - Maybe?
Latest Aircraft & Aerospace (April 2005) has a cheery article by Paul Phelan titled "Pilot scarcity to be new growth limiter for airlines." It says that three and a half years after Ansett's shut down in 2001, "the surplus of pilots is spent."
Later on another paragraph states that "Australia's airline growth is no longer adequately supported by an adequate flow of recruits at any level." Certainly that news is good news for the current 3000 pilots who have applied to Virgin Blue, alone. And how many is that airline taking in this year? 15 or 20, maybe?
I remember the same old message several times over the past 40 years and even then there were a thousand plus well qualified pilots unable to get into the airlines.
Historically there have always been far too many pilots for the number of jobs available - starting from the lowest paid Cessna 210 charter pilot or the grade 3 instructor hanging around the coffee urn waiting to catch the first TIF who fronts up to the counter clutching a 50 buck voucher.
While I am sure that all the chief pilots who were interviewed by the journalist Paul Phelan were fair dinkum in their fear that they are going to run out of pilots and cut services because of lack of pilots to fly their aircraft, it is a fair bet that their fears will prove groundless - if the experience of past history is looked at.
Sure there may be a shortage of 5000 and 10,000 hour pilots to fly a Dash-8 or a SAAB - but hey! what's the problem with a 500 hour co-pilot job on these types? Europe and Asia have 250 hour copilots on 737's and even 500 hour pilots as F/O on 747's and A340's.
There are pilots in trees in Australia and that will never change, despite what is published in aviation magazines.
Later on another paragraph states that "Australia's airline growth is no longer adequately supported by an adequate flow of recruits at any level." Certainly that news is good news for the current 3000 pilots who have applied to Virgin Blue, alone. And how many is that airline taking in this year? 15 or 20, maybe?
I remember the same old message several times over the past 40 years and even then there were a thousand plus well qualified pilots unable to get into the airlines.
Historically there have always been far too many pilots for the number of jobs available - starting from the lowest paid Cessna 210 charter pilot or the grade 3 instructor hanging around the coffee urn waiting to catch the first TIF who fronts up to the counter clutching a 50 buck voucher.
While I am sure that all the chief pilots who were interviewed by the journalist Paul Phelan were fair dinkum in their fear that they are going to run out of pilots and cut services because of lack of pilots to fly their aircraft, it is a fair bet that their fears will prove groundless - if the experience of past history is looked at.
Sure there may be a shortage of 5000 and 10,000 hour pilots to fly a Dash-8 or a SAAB - but hey! what's the problem with a 500 hour co-pilot job on these types? Europe and Asia have 250 hour copilots on 737's and even 500 hour pilots as F/O on 747's and A340's.
There are pilots in trees in Australia and that will never change, despite what is published in aviation magazines.
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the difference this time around is airlines are increasingly forcing their pilots to pay for their careers!!
refer to the Qantaslink thread here
http://www.pprune.org/forums/showthr...hreadid=168635
it will quickly become apparent that being an airline pilot is not a financially rewarding career! and number s will drop dramatically! and may well hinder airline growth.
refer to the Qantaslink thread here
http://www.pprune.org/forums/showthr...hreadid=168635
it will quickly become apparent that being an airline pilot is not a financially rewarding career! and number s will drop dramatically! and may well hinder airline growth.
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I agree with you ultralights. I recieved the email from sunstate regarding having to have a dash 8 endorsement before getting the job there.
It seems that you have to buy a job these days. When I first saw that impulse was doing it I was weary of this as I could see it becoming an industry norm. This idea is going to result in only poeple with enough money to buy the endorsement are going to get the jobs. Just because some one can buy the job at said airline will they be the best person for the job? How many poeple have I seen going through flying schools with rich parents paying the lot and being of average skill?
Imagine qantas for example expect you to have a 747 endorsement before applying?
I hate to sound like a doomsdayer but thats my fear.
Any way I can't wait for these baby boomers to start retiring or loosing there medicals.
go on retire you old *****s
It seems that you have to buy a job these days. When I first saw that impulse was doing it I was weary of this as I could see it becoming an industry norm. This idea is going to result in only poeple with enough money to buy the endorsement are going to get the jobs. Just because some one can buy the job at said airline will they be the best person for the job? How many poeple have I seen going through flying schools with rich parents paying the lot and being of average skill?
Imagine qantas for example expect you to have a 747 endorsement before applying?
I hate to sound like a doomsdayer but thats my fear.
Any way I can't wait for these baby boomers to start retiring or loosing there medicals.
go on retire you old *****s
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Average ain't good enough especially when there are a lot of ABOVE average around
Cheers, HH.
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With Emirates now taking DE Captains at higher rates than those who came up from FO, Dragonair ambitiously expanding and new players like Etihad arriving, the pool of experienced pilots, particularly C&T people, is rapidly drying up.
But I doubt there will be a shortage of young pilots in Australia in the foreseeable future.
We may see a situation such as we had in the late 80's, where big bucks could be made via contract.
Interestingly, with the situation of the current EBA in QF, where despite record profits and management at the trough, a true pay rise for the troops is simply not on the cards, I talk with many pilots who see what is on offer overseas and are now prepared to give leaving QF serious thought. I am one of them.
I can earn twice what I take home now in Dragonair, or retire in half the time I have left in Qantas. It's a very appealing thought. Time will tell what happens.
But I doubt there will be a shortage of young pilots in Australia in the foreseeable future.
We may see a situation such as we had in the late 80's, where big bucks could be made via contract.
Interestingly, with the situation of the current EBA in QF, where despite record profits and management at the trough, a true pay rise for the troops is simply not on the cards, I talk with many pilots who see what is on offer overseas and are now prepared to give leaving QF serious thought. I am one of them.
I can earn twice what I take home now in Dragonair, or retire in half the time I have left in Qantas. It's a very appealing thought. Time will tell what happens.
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The problem is arising only because of age retirements.
Many countries are now reviewing - or already have revised - the retirement age upwards.
Stick that one in your pipe and smoke on it for a while robair
Many countries are now reviewing - or already have revised - the retirement age upwards.
Stick that one in your pipe and smoke on it for a while robair
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Its ALL gone too far...
What you will find is that many locals from countries outside Australia will gain jet jobs, in their own country, with little or no experience, get their jet time and perhaps move on...Maybe!!
Try looking at contract work via the internet and you will find that mostly all require jet experience.
So what we have is guys in Europe, U.S, Asia, South Pacific, that are all qualified on type, taking the pick of the crop, and then guys in Oz still struggling in GA.
Where is the shortage of pilots. Certainly not in OZ. How many unemployed commercial pilots are out there??
Alot of morons in management in Australia, along with their pig-headed ego's, make it more and more difficult for anyone to get a job in Oz- GA and in the Airlines.
This is what kills me.
Take a look at Jetstar for example, they require more experience and require you to do more in their selection process than in Qantas to get less pay. Pacific blue, I remeber that their requirements were higher than Virgin Blue to get less pay. QL, well they want you to pay more and more money..etc etc!!
When experience levels drop for entry, like US and Europe in fact everywhere else in the world, pay increases, and we all have civil liberties......ahhh then we have a shortage of pilots.
Write that in your articles before you entice more and more into this wicked and evil field that aviation has become.
I wonder what the flying schools will tell their prospective students. You will need $100,000 to get a flying job in OZ that pays ****e, but if your lucky and you know heaps of people in the industry, in 4-5 years you could be earning $80,000. Or, will they pin up these articles on their notice boards so everyone feels a sense of well being while getting financially pumped!!
Maybe just Maybe this all an April Fools day joke and we can all have a bit of a giggle...teehee!
Shazzamed
Try looking at contract work via the internet and you will find that mostly all require jet experience.
So what we have is guys in Europe, U.S, Asia, South Pacific, that are all qualified on type, taking the pick of the crop, and then guys in Oz still struggling in GA.
Where is the shortage of pilots. Certainly not in OZ. How many unemployed commercial pilots are out there??
Alot of morons in management in Australia, along with their pig-headed ego's, make it more and more difficult for anyone to get a job in Oz- GA and in the Airlines.
This is what kills me.
Take a look at Jetstar for example, they require more experience and require you to do more in their selection process than in Qantas to get less pay. Pacific blue, I remeber that their requirements were higher than Virgin Blue to get less pay. QL, well they want you to pay more and more money..etc etc!!
When experience levels drop for entry, like US and Europe in fact everywhere else in the world, pay increases, and we all have civil liberties......ahhh then we have a shortage of pilots.
Write that in your articles before you entice more and more into this wicked and evil field that aviation has become.
I wonder what the flying schools will tell their prospective students. You will need $100,000 to get a flying job in OZ that pays ****e, but if your lucky and you know heaps of people in the industry, in 4-5 years you could be earning $80,000. Or, will they pin up these articles on their notice boards so everyone feels a sense of well being while getting financially pumped!!
Maybe just Maybe this all an April Fools day joke and we can all have a bit of a giggle...teehee!
Shazzamed
Last edited by Shazzamed; 1st Apr 2005 at 00:43.
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Fri "The Australian"
Warning of skills shortage crisis
Steve Creedy, Aviation writer
April 01, 2005
AUSTRALIA's aviation industry faced a potentially crippling skills crisis as well as serious worries about the availability of capital and declining infrastructure over the next decade, a new aviation industry group has warned.
Topping the list of concerns was the looming skills shortage, particularly among pilots and maintenance engineers.
The summit heard that aviation industry growth across Southeast Asia was creating a surge in demand that coincided with an ageing industry population, where the average age of licensed aircraft engineers was in the mid-fifties and the average professional pilot was aged in the late-forties.
The Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation (CAPA) has conservatively estimated that an additional 94,000 staff would be needed in the Asia-Pacific region over the next decade and that this greatly exceeded projected supply. At the same time, cost restraints mean apprentice intakes in civil and military aviation were at all-time lows.
Click here for FULL story
==========================================
Warning of skills shortage crisis
Steve Creedy, Aviation writer
April 01, 2005
AUSTRALIA's aviation industry faced a potentially crippling skills crisis as well as serious worries about the availability of capital and declining infrastructure over the next decade, a new aviation industry group has warned.
Topping the list of concerns was the looming skills shortage, particularly among pilots and maintenance engineers.
The summit heard that aviation industry growth across Southeast Asia was creating a surge in demand that coincided with an ageing industry population, where the average age of licensed aircraft engineers was in the mid-fifties and the average professional pilot was aged in the late-forties.
The Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation (CAPA) has conservatively estimated that an additional 94,000 staff would be needed in the Asia-Pacific region over the next decade and that this greatly exceeded projected supply. At the same time, cost restraints mean apprentice intakes in civil and military aviation were at all-time lows.
Click here for FULL story
==========================================
Man Bilong Balus long PNG
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Menen: There certainly are pilots in trees here in Australia!
One is in an Orange tree and he's sick of picking the flamin' things!
However getting out of them and back into an aeroplane is proving a little harder than expected!
You only live twice. Once when
you're born. Once when
you've looked death in the face.
One is in an Orange tree and he's sick of picking the flamin' things!
However getting out of them and back into an aeroplane is proving a little harder than expected!
You only live twice. Once when
you're born. Once when
you've looked death in the face.
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I beleive it doesnt matter what continent you are from. There never has been a pilot shortage and there never will be. Just the requirements change.
A good family friend of mine went to United Airlines in 1956. He didnt even have his intstrument rating. United snapped him up, stuck him in a simulator and and then a bugsmasher, then stuffed him into the right seat of a Convair with the ink still wet on his ticket. No shortage, EVER, ANYWHERE!
B
A good family friend of mine went to United Airlines in 1956. He didnt even have his intstrument rating. United snapped him up, stuck him in a simulator and and then a bugsmasher, then stuffed him into the right seat of a Convair with the ink still wet on his ticket. No shortage, EVER, ANYWHERE!
B
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Eimer M. It is nothing to do with increased age requirements at all. As far as Australia is concerned there never was an age limit for "retirement" apart from before the 1989 pilot's strike where the AFAP forced an age 60 retirement which neatly removed perfectly competent pilots who simply loved to fly, out of the system. In Europe the retirement age varies country to country from 60 to 63.
In Asia at the moment there are hundreds of 200 hour pilots graduating from flying schools each year who will move directly into the second in command seat of Boeings and Airbus. Best of luck to them, too. Look the other way as far as flight safety is concerned, of course. But Australia has always had a vast oversupply of pilots and that will never change.
In Asia at the moment there are hundreds of 200 hour pilots graduating from flying schools each year who will move directly into the second in command seat of Boeings and Airbus. Best of luck to them, too. Look the other way as far as flight safety is concerned, of course. But Australia has always had a vast oversupply of pilots and that will never change.
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The call comes after an inaugural AUSAC summit in Melbourne last month brought together representatives of major industry groups, airlines and the defence force to discuss problems facing aviation in the next decade. Topping the list of concerns was the looming skills shortage, particularly among pilots and maintenance engineers.
Things will sadly only change IMO when GA is dead and the flying schools can't attract prospective students.
I await NEXT GENERATION's reply with interest.
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Couldn't agree more. I can see signs that the pool of experienced pilots is already starting to dry up. The airlines and regionals should be asking them selves who is going to fly their aircraft in 5 - 10 years time?
You might be able to get a cadet to become a SO at 200hrs but not a FO or Capt. Where are the experienced (ie >1500T 500MC) pilots going to come from when no one takes up flying because they can't afford to.
Who in their right mind would get a licence (god knows what a CPL costs now) knowing in advance that after years in GA plus extra costs for C-ME IFR etc gets them a
This is the worst time in the industry for operators to go asking for endos and paying peanuts. Lets just turn everybody away from flying.
This quoted from the QL email
to better meet its overall pilot recruitment requirements 
QL you have just lost my application before I have even considered applying. And I have passed the controversial psych test that seems to cull many suitable candidates.(not indended as a horn blow).
It is getting harder and harder to stay motivated in this industry. 'Pilot' will find its way next to the Tasmanian Tiger on the endangered species list in years to come if the current operators keep on the current path. The key to a successful business is happy (even able to support themself) staff. They are your company's investment, so invest in them and get the returns, real profits - not false ones by cutting costs.
There will be a 'correction' in the industry like the stock market sooner or later and the remaining pilots will benefit. IMO I don't believe a 'requirement change' will offset a shortage. Simply because the airlines won't be able to afford the increased insurance premiums when all they have left to command their aircraft are 200hr pilots.
You might be able to get a cadet to become a SO at 200hrs but not a FO or Capt. Where are the experienced (ie >1500T 500MC) pilots going to come from when no one takes up flying because they can't afford to.
Who in their right mind would get a licence (god knows what a CPL costs now) knowing in advance that after years in GA plus extra costs for C-ME IFR etc gets them a
($38k and paying up to 18K for Dash 8 endo AND have to live in expensive Sydney)
This quoted from the QL email
The review highlighted the fact that this process is in line with industry practice and will allow QantasLink to better meet its overall pilot recruitment requirements
QL you have just lost my application before I have even considered applying. And I have passed the controversial psych test that seems to cull many suitable candidates.(not indended as a horn blow).
It is getting harder and harder to stay motivated in this industry. 'Pilot' will find its way next to the Tasmanian Tiger on the endangered species list in years to come if the current operators keep on the current path. The key to a successful business is happy (even able to support themself) staff. They are your company's investment, so invest in them and get the returns, real profits - not false ones by cutting costs.
There will be a 'correction' in the industry like the stock market sooner or later and the remaining pilots will benefit. IMO I don't believe a 'requirement change' will offset a shortage. Simply because the airlines won't be able to afford the increased insurance premiums when all they have left to command their aircraft are 200hr pilots.
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Any pilot shortage will be short lived - as a post elsewhere on pprune has indicated - "Goldman Sachs predict USD$105/barrel"
Most if not all other investment firms agree.
Dont stress guys, pilot shortage will be the least of your worries.
Most if not all other investment firms agree.
Dont stress guys, pilot shortage will be the least of your worries.
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Quote from menen: :As far as Australia is concerned there never was an age limit for "retirement" apart from before the 1989 pilot's strike where the AFAP forced an age 60 retirement which neatly removed perfectly competent pilots who simply loved to fly, out of the system."
That's bollocks!
It was Government enforced legislation that "neatly removed perfectly competent pilots who simply loved to fly, out of the system."...poor darlings.
Shazzamed has said it most accurately, in my opinion.
Australia, and most Western countries are awash with G.A. pilots who have paid for their OWN training.
Flying doesn't have the same appeal, or is simply unaffordable to the common man in Asian and Arabic countries. (It is here too, but we hock ourselves to the hilt anyway, in the hope that we can pay the loan off and get a return on our money before we die!).
People with the ability to endure and pass pilot training usually prefer to opt for other professions - doctors, lawyers, accountants.
Resultantly, non-western country airlines are FORCED to pay for their pilots' training, endorsements, etc, to ensure an adequate supply. Hence the reason we see 20-something year olds with a couple of hundred hours in the rhs of jets, over in those countries.
Yes, the pilot shortage is looming, which is why companies are screwing pilots NOW, because in the very near future there simply won't be enough to go around.
Boeing forecast this (for this upcoming period) some 5 or 6 years ago.
"short lived" is a relative term, oicur12 - it will be "short lived" enough to see SOME airlines parking aircraft and cancelling services due to lack of pilots, unless they up the ante to draw them away from other employers.
That's bollocks!
It was Government enforced legislation that "neatly removed perfectly competent pilots who simply loved to fly, out of the system."...poor darlings.
Shazzamed has said it most accurately, in my opinion.
Australia, and most Western countries are awash with G.A. pilots who have paid for their OWN training.
Flying doesn't have the same appeal, or is simply unaffordable to the common man in Asian and Arabic countries. (It is here too, but we hock ourselves to the hilt anyway, in the hope that we can pay the loan off and get a return on our money before we die!).
People with the ability to endure and pass pilot training usually prefer to opt for other professions - doctors, lawyers, accountants.
Resultantly, non-western country airlines are FORCED to pay for their pilots' training, endorsements, etc, to ensure an adequate supply. Hence the reason we see 20-something year olds with a couple of hundred hours in the rhs of jets, over in those countries.
Yes, the pilot shortage is looming, which is why companies are screwing pilots NOW, because in the very near future there simply won't be enough to go around.
Boeing forecast this (for this upcoming period) some 5 or 6 years ago.
"short lived" is a relative term, oicur12 - it will be "short lived" enough to see SOME airlines parking aircraft and cancelling services due to lack of pilots, unless they up the ante to draw them away from other employers.
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There may be a pilot shortage when the flying schools tell the trainees what the employment situation actually is, and the bludging airlines select candidates for employment and give them a provisional contract BEFORE they spend huge ammouns of money at the local flying school. .