Boom times for pilots are here - Maybe?
Latest Aircraft & Aerospace (April 2005) has a cheery article by Paul Phelan titled "Pilot scarcity to be new growth limiter for airlines." It says that three and a half years after Ansett's shut down in 2001, "the surplus of pilots is spent."
Later on another paragraph states that "Australia's airline growth is no longer adequately supported by an adequate flow of recruits at any level." Certainly that news is good news for the current 3000 pilots who have applied to Virgin Blue, alone. And how many is that airline taking in this year? 15 or 20, maybe?
I remember the same old message several times over the past 40 years and even then there were a thousand plus well qualified pilots unable to get into the airlines.
Historically there have always been far too many pilots for the number of jobs available - starting from the lowest paid Cessna 210 charter pilot or the grade 3 instructor hanging around the coffee urn waiting to catch the first TIF who fronts up to the counter clutching a 50 buck voucher.
While I am sure that all the chief pilots who were interviewed by the journalist Paul Phelan were fair dinkum in their fear that they are going to run out of pilots and cut services because of lack of pilots to fly their aircraft, it is a fair bet that their fears will prove groundless - if the experience of past history is looked at.
Sure there may be a shortage of 5000 and 10,000 hour pilots to fly a Dash-8 or a SAAB - but hey! what's the problem with a 500 hour co-pilot job on these types? Europe and Asia have 250 hour copilots on 737's and even 500 hour pilots as F/O on 747's and A340's.
There are pilots in trees in Australia and that will never change, despite what is published in aviation magazines.