EK to Decommission 50%+ of Airbus A380, Axe 1/2 of Pilots & Cabin Crew

[The Outlaw]

The standard grade is to be smart enough not to ask stupid questions.

[Landflap]

QNH1013 ; "Europeans in the ME with "wasta" - Oh yes, believe it. Many, many, many.

[777boyindubai]

SHE has Wastaa. Not many supported by virtue of her work skills. No issue with being female. But very very questionable SIMs and upgrade performance or lack of.

The mind boggles....

[777boyindubai]

LOL Xulu. I haven't named her. But she is the ONLY one left. There were tons of better people and you know that. Not a follower. I just hear the pain of much better and much more competent people that Ahmed the Liar and Co trashed. Along with their kids. For me, its merit that I ask for. And merit is not something she has displayed.

[GDAJB]

So what? All of these countries have had a long held “nationalisation” policy of one day being able to fill professional vacancies from indigenous nationals. Obviously, in rapidly expanding industries that is not likely to be a short or even medium term initiative. In addition, I also believe (even if some of these airline managements don’t) that mistakes and struggling, are often a part of the learning process. I have over the last 40 years seen some people who struggled enormously early on, go on to make absolutely first rate pilots, and in many cases teachers and or managers in their own right. There are few things more satisfying than someone telling you “thank you” for having faith and belief in them when maybe once it would have been much easier not to. I’ve also seen many cases of female pilots who were subject to often subtle bullying which only served to diminish their confidence when the opposite was what was really required.

These are really horrible times and people’s livelihoods and lifestyles are being badly damaged or severely disrupted. That causes a lot of grief and anger and it is not surprising that people will lash out and feel there is a lot of unfairness and inequity. I get that, but it isn’t right to single out somebody (even by subtle outing) just to assuage this anger.

[WB1900]

GDAJB

you are Right to say don’t point on somebody
but for the picture
failed, passed, downgrade, passed again and whatever was next - some Fo had to 2 years for a second chance and never got it
she did all of that in just 3 years so i think it just fair enough to point out the unfairness which goes on in this airline
and we all know that a lot of luck is involved in your career path in this airline by who you talk to for support and who is gonna sit behind You and the amount of BS he is gonna distribute

[White Knight]

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/893x1677/979ddbc5_d635_475f_b130_4bf1d2e991f1_f316395630795a0463fa869 4fc63a08111053d29.jpeg
Latest I’ve seen on Routes Online... Looks to be about 30 airframes worth of flying.

[5star]

To quote someone more familiar with the matter: “it’s just a glitch.....”.:ugh:

[allert]

I don't think they'll have enough pilots left to operate those routes :}

[NowThatsFunny]

777boyindubai

It amazes me that people are still talking about competency of this person vs that person. KPMG were not brought in to determine competency, they advised the company how to get rid of those pilots who cost the company more money, and most likely how to avoid any claims of unfair dismissal. Competency, or lack thereof, clearly had little to do with who went home and who didn't.

[Fired600]

Competency was the last thing they were concerned about, it was all about money. Wasta, however will always come into play, and it is galling when you are on the street when you know you have a good record but were deemed too expensive due to a medical incident or other genuine misfortune, whilst others who have known deficiencies but more wasta, cruise by.

I do think that when this picks up again they will be crying out for guys to come back, they have hundreds of aircraft that they can’t fly now due simply to the fact they dont have enough pilots to crew them. They either rehire or turn into Gulf Air II. How many do come back will be interesting since many will have either given up aviation, decided that home is indeed better than the desert, or will be getting better offers from other airlines who will equally be on the up at that stage and haven’t treated them like trash. Make no mistake that time will come, Covid isn’t forever.

[bringbackthe80s]

After spending so much rested time with the family - the last thing I want to do is work through the night repeatedly. I was wrecked in the last couple years at max hours.


After spending so much time with the family, me thinks most will beg for 24 hours duties no days off

[Xulu]

Lol. I did see some interesting grumbles from EPW having to actually live with hubby now.

This has put a lot of strain on some marriages. Many held together by time apart and brunches.

Bliss bunking with the in-laws in a European Winter will be hard to find.

Guys I know forced to break off promising relationships to move home.

[WB1900]

Xulu

STC said he won’t touch cash reserves as much as possible - therefore he sent families into :mad:
company had 20bnAED cash liquidity in April - while true they spent roughly 1,5bnAED on customers reembursment for Tickets which leaves 18,5 in the box
further they received approx 7bnAED from HH Mo makes 25,5
the cost to park airplanes in DWC are in no comparison to what other airlines must pay as EK parks them on HH Territory
1000 Pilots on 50% would have costed them 1,5bAED plus minus for 1year
the money was in the cash box but nobody was interested to find a different solution than the given one

[Fired600]

sorry WB1900, that can’t be right because Sheik A has publicly stated that the companies biggest asset is its employees.You are shattering my delusions....

[WB1900]

sorry WB1900, that can’t be right because Sheik A has publicly stated that the companies biggest asset is its employees.You are shattering my delusions....
my illusion has left the building - without me

[WB1900]

I think it’s clear that EK didnt really have that stash of cash.

Or maybe it’s just sat in a Bognor Regis bank account.
well the annual state that in quite big letters

[Fired600]

If they had 18.5bn after refunds then why did they need another 7bn from Sheik Mo?

[Capn Rex Havoc]

If they had 18.5bn after refunds then why did they need another 7bn from Sheik Mo?

Cmon Fired600 - don't go against the propaganda machine of EK - resistance is useless

[Pif Paf]

For those interested - Dubai might have more money coming in than you think in future. Being drilled from Dubai area. So saying Dubai has no lines of credit might be incorrect.

https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/2/6/uae-finds-80-tcf-gas-field-the-world-s-biggest-since-2005

[WB1900]

this know since January or so but there is slight dispute between Abu Dhabi and Dubai as the majority of that field is in Abu Dhabi And of course who has more rights on it

[777boyindubai]

AD will not develop it yet as it would give Dubai leverage over Foreign and Economic Policy. Lots of infighting between AD and Dubai over UAE actions in Yemen and Libya. Dubai will be in deep doodoo for a while yet.

[fatbus]

This is not really new news .

[777boyindubai]

Was just reading in Arabianbusiness that Timi is staying on. Postponing his retirement no less. He will be the fall guy. As Ahmed the Liar and the other Habibis won’t want to lose face. I guess EK and Timi simply do it better. I did chuckle about the huge cash reserves that they claim yet Mo gave $2 billion. All smoke and mirrors. I believe ICD has used the money elsewhere. Bad times ahead. Again. I always say it. I really really feel for the poor people and families that have been treated inhumanely by the filthy EK Gangsters.

[Dropp the Pilot]

Someone will need to buy him a pocket calculator for Christmas or draw him a very simple and small diagram. The business plan of operating airplanes which carry 10% more than everyone else's but that burn 20% more fuel has a finite life span.

"Sir" could perhaps join the lecture circuit - "My secret management technique to making a small fortune in the airline business: Start with a large fortune"

[EchoKilla]

“Sir" could perhaps join the lecture circuit - "My secret management technique to making a small fortune in the airline business: Start with a large fortune"

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA best analogy of TCTC ever

[Fired600]

Lessons from Sir Richard Branson ....

[donpizmeov]

Dropp the Pilot

You almost got there old fella. 517 vs 354 three class, 617 vs 425 two class. But please don't let facts clutter your ramblings.

[FlightDetent]

As in
(517 / 354 - 1) x 100 [%]
(​​​​​​617 / 425 - 1) x 100 [%]
?
​​

[fatbus]

Who cares?

[I love twins]

FlightDetent

Exactly. It carries 46% more pax than the 777.

I’m not sure what sort of load factor would be the break even point for a given route but it clearly needs to be pretty full in order to be making money.

It is a wonderful aircraft and I feel privileged that I was able to fly it.

[glofish]

beati pauperes spiritu :ugh:

[Neektu]

Heureux les pauvres en esprit:-)

[cabbages]

Mange tout Rodney, mange tout.

[Eric Hartman]

I am surprised that the redundant A380 guys are still defending the A380. There is a direct link between 115 A380s and your redundancies. Last year’s profit margin was around 1% and there were signs of worldwide economy slowdown even before the Covid. What people don’t understand is that the recession was inevitable due to many other factors, Covid just made things worse. EK has never had a contingency plan and that is worrying to say the least.

[I love twins]

Not defending it as such, just correcting the assertion that it carried only 10% more pax.

I realise the aircraft does have its faults and that smaller twins are more economically viable, but I do appreciate the engineering behind it and maintain that it is a beautiful, and impressive, aircraft to fly.

[donpizmeov]

Eric Hartman

I think you meant to say there was a direct link between the 115 380s and your job. You Eric sure ain't that clever. However your cleverness scores greater points than your empathy.

I am not sure many airlines had contingency plans for a virus shutting down the world. Looking at Expat pilots in China, Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, UAE and Qatar the landscape has changed dramatically over the last 7 or 8 months. Some airlines may have done better than others, but the results are still very sad. Even legacy Airlines have pilots living with uncertainty. But it probably a little easier when doing that in your home country.

​​​​Time for the pilot group to start looking after each other. It's never been more important than as it is now.

[fatbus]

It sounds like the 777 at CX is the same as the 380 at EK . The biggest aircraft is the most vulnerable.

[Flying Clog]

Correct Fatbus

[krismiler]

CX and SQ are adding narrow bodies to their fleets through the mergers with Cathay Dragon and Silk Air respectively. QR, EY, ET and TK already have narrow bodies. The days of an airline operating an all widebody fleet may be over for the foreseeable future. Instead of scooping the cream from the top, i.e. the long haul premium traveller, airlines will need to cater for a much broader range of customer in order to stay afloat.

The easier to fill, lower operating cost, more flexible, and increasingly longer range single aisle aircraft are going to play an important role going forwards. CX have pushed the B777 - 9 back until at least 2025 and are introducing the A321NEO.

[Mister Warning]

Could Emirates absorb Fly Dubai for their narrow body needs?

[paule737]

It’s rather a question of what THEY want and NOT what YOU want 🤣

[White Knight]

Mandatory 12 months Unpaid Leave letters now out to many 380 pilots...

[Jet II]

do they still get accommodation, medical, schooling etc?

[Emma Royds]

Education allowance is still available.

Accomodation allowance is available if you live in the property you bought. The allowance will still be available to those renting, however only until the end of the current rental contract. It’s then back to EK accommodation thereafter.

Cat A medical cover within DXB and Cat E coverage elsewhere. There is also a requirement to have a suitable medical insurance policy to cover you, if you are out of DXB.

[allert]

Jet II

Correct, no information about provident fund access though

[delorean79]

Is there any info about how many emails they've sent?

[correamd11]

​​​​Time for the pilot group to start looking after each other. It's never been more important than as it is now.


Exactly!!!

[sheikhthecamel]

All smoke and mirrors. I believe ICD has used the money elsewhere..
ICD did not forsee having to fund EK into the beginning of 2021 because of "aggressive cost measures". They also foresaw a Dubai economic recovery picking up steam in Q4. Not sure how that is shaping up - my understanding is that things are still pretty dire in the sandbox (outside EK).

[sheikhthecamel]

I am surprised that the redundant A380 guys are still defending the A380. There is a direct link between 115 A380s and your redundancies. Last year’s profit margin was around 1% and there were signs of worldwide economy slowdown even before the Covid. What people don’t understand is that the recession was inevitable due to many other factors, Covid just made things worse. EK has never had a contingency plan and that is worrying to say the least.

Yes, that is a popular view. But Covid hit cash-flows much more dramatically / quickly than the base case recession. Whereas a "normal" recession has you managing your P/L and B/S, the Covid-fueled one has upended business models far and wide, and there is a lot of uncertainty what the next winning business models will look like in the airline business. Most likely it leaves the likes of EK and its neighbors holding a pretty useless hand of cards.

[Emma Royds]

Whilst unpaid leave is certainly better than redundancy, I suspect some will see little difference after receiving the email today. I am sure there are some tough discussions taking place tonight in some homes, as some struggle to see how they can survive financially for a year with no salary. This will sadly force some into a corner and feel that resigning and taking the provident fund will be a better option.

Apologies if this may not settle well with some but I suspect the intent of the company is to force some to resign. The bigger the familiy, the harder it will be and this often correlates to increased costs for the company with schooling etc. I am still at a loss as to why some or all of the provident fund is not available to those affected!

The term constructive dismissal springs to mind and I had a hunch it would be the next card dealt by the company. Resignations are less embarrassing for management than yet another round of redundancies.

Good luck to all. 👍🏻

[fatbus]

Add to that , no protocol for recall means selective . Who is cheapest and willing at the new TCs that is still to occur .

[donpizmeov]

Now is not the time for made up speculation. Families have enough to worry about without you adding this kind of trash. You got to leave on your terms fatty. Many hundreds of pilots have not had that opportunity this year. A little empathy and support rather than trumpet blowing.

[Capn Rex Havoc]

A possible solution - to the 777 pilots - Write to TCT and take a 10% pay cut, (lots more 777 pilots than 380 pilots left) and divert those funds to the LWOP 380 pilots.

Pilots supporting pilots.

[donpizmeov]

Rexy wasn't making a plea for himself. He was part of an earlier wave.
But since you seem to be an ideas man Xulu, although little Billy will have a home and school, how does his family afford to feed him for a year with no income? If the family has a loan here, what happens when the account runs dry and a payment is due? Remember you can't touch the provident fund when on LWOP.
Looking forward to your suggestions in advance.

[FoxAlfa21]

Whit all due respect

Each one is responsible of its own finances, If Billy's parents have a loan and many debts , If they didn't have an emergency plan and cant afford to survive in Dubai for 1 year with no income, then maybe they should consider other options, selling a property ? selling cars? Resigning? I'm putting myself in that position, I will sell a property to cover my expenses for 1 year before asking other people that also have debts and responsibilities to cover my own.
My 2 cents

[5star]

Don,

Here’s a simple suggestion for you and Rexy: resign and cash in your PF...
Jeez...If you can’t source some funds or income for a year to bridge the gap...wtf....
Maybe consider selling that Porsche, cut back on those daily costa visits...
Maybe get rid of that nanny or clean your house yourself....need more ideas?

There are thousands of ex colleagues on the street with no return ticket, who have to feed their families...
I have little sympathy for those still on board now moaning...You got a roof above your head
and the tab for schooling is still paid.....Be glad they didn’t throw you guys off the cliff....

[WB1900]

Mai what’s the actual unpaid leave package in terms of benefits?

- company house yes/no
- school yes/no
- medical insurance yes/no
- tickets (ALT, SRC, etc)
- company contribution PF yes/no

thanks for the heads up

[donpizmeov]

I have not heard anyone who received a letter yesterday moaning. I have read one ex employee suggesting a way of helping others, and two other less empathetic posters complaining about nonexistent moaning.
Those who received an email yesterday have already been on half pay for the equivalent of 8 months. Most with no flight pay for that entire period. So I would think it's not unreasonable to think any savings have probably already been tapped into.
Many of those that have unfortunately left in previous waves, have returned to countries that help support families in need. I also understand a lot so not have this opportunity. There is no support like that for an Expat here.
Trying to think outside the box to help colleagues should be endorsed rather than belittled. Perhaps Rex did not come up with a perfect plan, but maybe it will start the discussion to find one.

[14 6]

A possible solution - to the 777 pilots - Write to TCT and take a 10% pay cut, (lots more 777 pilots than 380 pilots left) and divert those funds to the LWOP 380 pilots.

Pilots supporting pilots.

Do you actually know what is going on in the world, outside your little circle of aviation buddies? Compared to others, airline pilots have been remunerated reasonably well over the last few decades and by the very nature of their profession, one would expect them to make sound financial decisions as well. Yet, what we have witnessed among many, NOT ALL, is a pursuit of a lavish lifestyle and as a result overextending themselves. Are pilots not trained to expect a catastrophe at any moment and have a mitigating plan ready?

Your suggestion seems noble, but completely out of touch with reality. What is the word.......virtue signaling!

[14 6]

donpizme

Just when you think you have heard it all!

So what you are saying is, we
should now donate money to pay off other people's loans?! You gotta be kiddin' right!

Who took out that loan and for what?

Don't you and Rexy think that these same people who you are suggesting should make a donation, are themselves in a cash conservation phase, trying to build up a reserve with this continuous sword hanging over their heads?

Final point! Are the 2 of you really that naive as to think that by asking TC for a pay cut, is going to save 1 pilot's salary? "Come on man!"

Ask me for something to eat and I will gladly help you, but pay off your loan? I don't think so!

[WB1900]

there is absolutely a point to agree
I cannot be you ask for help having a Porsche a merc I’d similar on the yard
in the wave of leaving I have seen how much money was spent in false security believes and all of that is put up on loans - I a country where you receive social security aid by the state you have to minimize your life style first - I am for eg not even allowed to have a car. So please don’t come up with bailout plans for keeping a lifestyle - if you starve or having a medical emergency while unable to pay for an insurance that’s a different story but sure not to keep the Porsche with the boat trailer

[5star]

yes
yes
yes
yes
who cares, peanuts in a broader perspective

[donpizmeov]

Well that certainly degenerated quickly. One fella suggests helping others, and then others come in saying its a crap idea as they aren't going to pay for PlayStations, IPhones, luxury cars and boats. Talk about point being missed!

​​​​There are lots of families doing it tough at the moment. For those of you that can think of someone other than yourself, please keep an eye on them. Most won't say they need help. Without a list some are going to be missed. But if we as a group don't look after each other, we are no better than those Muppets we make fun of.

[777boyindubai]

5 Star.

You make assumptions.

Every single one of those so called benefits was given as in a way that avoided EK paying into the Provident Fund. Hence they were given as allowances.

Every single one of the benefits mentioned has been changed via a "contract adjustment letter" Paying towards school fees and limits on health insurance coverage spring to mind.

Pilots have been made redundant which is illegal under UAE law yet EK is semi government and therefore has no law.

Finally, given what Ahmed the Liar has done, do you believe ANYTHING EK say and do you BELIEVE they will keep their word.

I doubt you will find many takers.

I also endorse the wise words of Donpizmeov. Let us try to be kind to each other. Think of the poor kids. Many friends still there and they are stressed with both EK and their family life being destroyed.

[FoxAlfa21]

donpizmeov

Helping other pilots is not a problem, we have been helping many since the first wave in the extent of the possibilities of each of us, assuming that "Every 777 pilot should voluntarily ask for a salary deduction" is the problem.
Why?
What makes you believe those pilots do not have loans? or maybe used their credit cards during the salary deduction period?
What makes you believe they don't need the money to save for the future? So far nobody has their jobs 100% assured.
What makes you believe they are not supporting other family members that probably lost everything as well?

So this is very unfortunate for everyone being affected but at the end I Insist, each one is responsible of its own finances, If you cant pay a loan, that was a risk you took when signing for it, not me or any other pilot so for me that's an stupid excuse, sell a car, sell a property, figure it out. There is no other option and you can't survive in Dubai? Then unfortunately you might have to resign take your money and go back home, it is not the end of the world just a result of a crisis + bad financial planning.

[Flying Clog]

What a sad state of affairs. For many years I thought I made a mistake not going to EK when a lot of my buddies did. I thought things were bad at Cathay, but EK management appear to be the scum of the earth.

[14 6]

donpizmeov

No Don, your mate had a foolish idea, suggesting the B777 guys ask TC for a paycut in order to save someone else's pay. That is delusional. How long have you been here?

You always conveniently miss the point when it suits you. No one ever suggested not helping their fellow man, but that does not include bailing out loans. You specifically mentioned people who can not make their payments. Do you think that the 380 guys at EK are the only ones suffering right now and worthy financial help? Wake up and look around you! People needing help have been right under our noses for a long time! One day, many years ago I walked into a SEP classroom and there was a brown evelope on my group's table. The trainer explained that the cleaners are struggling to live on AED200 after sending AED400 home and kindly asked for a donation. Sitting in this big, shiny building and trying to process what I have just been told, made me sick to my stomach. I sort of remember that it was during the yearly "PPRUNE-how-many-weeks-of-profit-share-are-we-entitled-to" season.

Let us not get all self righteous now that our group has been struck with calamity. Suffering has always been around us, but funny how we could not see it!

I will continue to help where I see suffering and I will do it privately.

[14 6]

FoxAlfa21

Amen brother or sister! You are speaking the truth!

[777boyindubai]

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1242x812/photo_2020_11_04_11_51_02_1__b0cfc270b7b86e55a244315fddb19e3 9ae2fac2b.jpg

[777boyindubai]

So, some analysis,

The letter was sent out to the Remainder of the 380 pilots with the exception of all UAE Nationals and 30 selected expats and 15 TREs.

Everyone in non company-owned rented will be asked to leave and move into company accommodation. EK owns the land and villas. Any money borrowed to build is from local banks which are all owned by the royals. People with mortgages will only receive that amount. Nothing more. Cost neutral pretty much.

The schools are owned (like JESS which is run by EK but don't tell anyone) by the family. Parents who actually pay fees have been subsidising EK kids for years. Hence cost neutral pretty much.

So clean out your provident fund. Spend 20 months savings in Dubai (8 plus 12) and then we give you one month and tell you to leave.

Think carefully and I can assure the 777 guys that you ARE NEXT. EK are manipulative liars.

Be careful

[fatbus]

Pilots being pilots , eat their own ! Seems like some have already forgotten those that were culled. Shame really !

[paule737]

When you think, you have seen it all.... 🤦🏼‍♂️

Looks like, that some people developed very thin nerves.

Quite unpleasant to see what EK’s done to the people ☹️

[Capn Rex Havoc]

146 and xulu,
sorry I haven’t been able to reply / I’ve been driving for 9 hours to look for work / any ways it’s 0138 am here and I am disgusted at your posts. FFS we were one company - I thought there might be solidarity - but you have shown blatant disregard for your colleagues. Hell if the situation was reversed I’d sacrifice 50 percent of my salary for my peers. I’m not one of the 12 months Lwop - I was sacked ages ago - I can’t believe how bloody selfish and self entitled you are- you do know it was only LUCK that you were placed on a 777. 14 years ago I did the sim at ek on a 777 for selection and passed - and was sent to the 330. My career since has been on the Airbus. I was on the 330 - suffering- when the 777 boys were styling- now I make a suggestion- u know what how about 777 guys (say 2000 blokes) giving up 5 percent of there wages to help their aviator colleague. FFS what is wrong with you-l? I’m glad I am out of EK now - and ecstatic that I will never have to be associated with c..ts like you again.

[fatbus]

Well put Rex!👍

[14 6]

Rex,
It is blatantly obvious that English comprehension is not your strong point. You have no idea what we are trying to say.

BTW, are you regretting your first post on this thread yet? It is getting close to 50%!

All you have left to offer, is name calling which is duly noted. This is my last response to you because it is not fair to have a battle of witts with an unarmed man!

[Captain Sham]

“14 years ago I did the sim at ek on a 777 for selection and passed - and was sent to the 330.” Did you try for the Boeing? I had been warned how bad life on the 330 was so when I was offered the 330 as well I politely declined informing them that as I only had Boeing experience it was not in EKs or my best interest to place me on an Airbus. I was told they’d get back to me. 2 weeks later I was offered a 777 course. I guess was lucky.

[fatbus]

Pat yourself on the back Sham , your timing is spot on !

[WB1900]

Captain Sham

Un-lucky the other way
all my life on airbus - was offered 777 - mentioned best interest for all would be airbus - yeah got it - and there we are

[Captain Sham]

“Pat yourself on the back Sham , your timing is spot on !”

I left 3.5 years ago. It was good timing. My thoughts are with everyone still there or recently cut loose through no fault of their own.

[EchoKilla]

I just have a simple statement. Even if the 777 boys took a pay cut and helped the rest of the lads/lasses out - we are talking about the crooked ek higher ups. Knowing them, they’ll keep the percentage and continue culling

so let’s stop the bickering and playing mother Teresa and highlight what a gong show the despicable EK management is!!

my 2 pennies...

[donpizmeov]

Unfortunately there is far too much ego and agenda here to have any proper discussion. So the wives are now running with this. Final result, if they get it to work, would be utilising Carrefour vouchers which can be purchased at a discount. Lots for them to work out yet. But great to see what can be done in a short time if noone acts like a d@ck. Perhaps it's a cultural thing :ok:

[5star]

Can we stop this BS of suggesting some should take a paycut to help someone else....What about the 1000plus already on the street....

I ll repeat it one more time for the ones on UPL. The company decided that you are more valuable than the random guys with heaps of seniority who got cancer or a lot of other unfortunate folks of the 1500/2000 (anyone a number?) already sent home on a 1way ticket...They are still investing a considerable amount to keep you on board....Its not a guarantee return but what did you guys expect....
Send your family home now you have all the time in the world, enjoy your off time and rethink in 12 months whats best to do...

just my 25fls....

[14 6]

@EchoKilla and 5star

Thank you for your voice of reason, can't agree more!

5star, very good advice! This is exactly what my family and I did after my previous redundancy and it brought some form of calm and stability.

[donpizmeov]

It's all so easy really.

Well, except for those that can't go home due to lockdown. Or those that are still waiting partners visa to arrive etc. But I know. It's their fault etc etc. Glad you guys are helping out.

[donpizmeov]

14 6

I am sorry but I had missed this one.

​​​​​​And I see your point. We are posting on the wrong thread. And for that I apologize. This is the thread to post rumours and then pat yourself on the back when they come true, all the while showing the middle finger to nay sayers yelling nah nah anah nah.
There is nothing in title that suggests looking after the welfare of those touched by all this.
So once again, sorry for posting in the wrong spot. You certainly picked this one right. Awesome job. Waiting with baited breath to hear the next one.

[Oldaircrew]

If anyone really believes there will be a job in 1 year’s time, they’re deluded. EK is just kicking the PF can down the road.

[5star]

and btw Don, my name is also on that long long list of guys who got the one way ticket...It is what it is....I learned my ‘sandpit’ lesson the hard way....
I don’t miss EK for a second, but the flying and the good trips a lot....
still like a few others, would have loved the UPL option instead...

However, we’re moving on...got no other choice.....

[14 6]

donpizmeov

Since you have asked so nicely, here it is. Besides I want you to be able to breathe freely.

Saying sorry is a good thing, but unfortunately your sarcasm drowns out the message.

You and Rex are two dangerous wind-up artists who chose to misconstrue most of the messages on this thread. Whether it is intentional or due to a lack of comprehension, I don't know, therefore you need to hear this:

EVERYONE on this thread has nothing but the sincerest empathy with colleagues who had been made redundant. All of us have close friends and/or neighbors who are going through a crisis period. We share their hardship on a personal level and anybody who suggests otherwise is being dishonest and vindictive!

This thread was started by someone who sent out a dire warning, but instead of taking heed, people like your buddy Rex decided to ridicule the messenger and talk down to him like you do to a child. Considering where we are now, that warning was conservative! Pilots are trained to take note of warnings and prepare mitigating strategies accordingly, but you two prefer to kill the messenger. Sometimes I wonder whether you are pilots at all. With such behaviour I surely am glad that I will not be sharing a cockpit with you! Note that I at least have a valid reason unlike Rex who just refuses to fly with "c-words" like me.

The next issue is that you claim to have been in the sandpit for a long time, yet you think that should the remaining pilots volunteer for a pay cut, others might be saved. That is delusional! Management decides how many staff will stay and what remuneration they will receive. This is not a democracy and we have zero input to make!

This brings me to the main issue. All of us are coming out of a 6-month-50%-pay period. Some even had to finance a forced villa move! What in your right mind convinces you that the "remainers" are in a financial position to volunteer for an extension of the salary reduction? What makes you think that they are not already supporting family/friends who have been made redundant? What makes you think that they will not receive the dreaded email themselves a week from now?

Final point! Financial hardship in the sandpit has been under your noses for a long time already. To get on your high horse only now that the pilot community is being hit, is hypocritical! You don, specifically mentioned the loan issue. Taking out a loan is 100% an personal choice and for the most part it is lifestyle related. Here we are given free accommodation, utilities, transport to and from work. There is ample and cheap public transportation. Schools provide bus services. We are given reasonable salaries to cover all these. I say again, taking out loans and getting into debt are private matters and nothing to do with others. Please stop trying to make us feel guilty for the inability of others to make their repayments.

[Eric Hartman]

Don, you have got to be kidding me. Why haven't you put 5-10% apart from your salary every month since the date you joined EK to save for the rainy days? What you are saying doesn't make any sense at all. But I'm not the brightest bulb in this building as you've mentioned earlier. If you haven't figured out yet that you don't work for a unionised airline I can't offer any help. We are all contractors here whether you like it not.

[White Knight]

EK is just kicking the PF can down the road.

Except that the funds are held independently in the Isle of Man..........

[WB1900]

but EK is paying at one stage even held later offshore
new TnC won’t have it anymore like EY doesn’t have it at all - never had
12% over 2000 people every year is a good chunk of money they safe on a yearly basis
EK states always that the second highest expense position after fuel are the employees that’s included next to the operational costs - salary - medical - also al benefits - which are being copped down - can’t wait for the announcement for the rest that it’s gone and you can keep it on your own expense

[Oldaircrew]

i don’t mean from a source point of view. emirates still handle the funds and I don’t think they will enjoy passing out another 400 odd Cheques. Better for them to wait the year and then do it after having just done 800 of them. Also, you know what people are like, once they get the funds from the fund manager, it’s going to be “their” money and it’s going to hurt parting with it.

[The Outlaw]

To those who where given the forced 1 year unpaid leave:

Think about this VERY carefully. As tempting as it may be to stay in DXB with a hopeful idea that your job may be there in a year, it could be a very dangerous decision. You could very well be faced with a termination letter one year forward and depending on EK, (if they are still solvent at that point) may have no easy access to your provident fund.

Read between the lines, follow your intuition and keep your eyes wide open. Personally, I have always pegged EK as "full of BS, spin and fantasy" at the best of times, imagine how they will be when under attack of bankruptcy.

Although I left well before this pandemic hit, I still know many fine folks who are still there and feel for their circumstance. Having said that, a potential loss of your retirement funds in a country that makes up the rules to suit them as it sees fit only serves them while ruining others.

Just a thought, suggestion or idea to those who have so much on their plate right now; Take the "bird in hand" and run! Take your retirement fund and run...fast and far. Then, invest it in your home country then tell EK that you love them and would love to come back and fly in a year if they want to have you (give them the same BS they just gave you)...this way you control the game, not them.

Best of luck to all.

[Capn Rex Havoc]

146 - I am glad you will not respond to me.
This is my last response to you because it is not fair to have a battle of witts with an unarmed man!

I don't know what "Witts" is in the English language.

This thread was started by someone who sent out a dire warning, but instead of taking heed, people like your buddy Rex decided to ridicule the messenger and talk down to him like you do to a child.

At the time this thread was started, there was no known way of confirming the impending carnage. At the time there were a lot of people anxious about the future and the "warning" you are referring to was presented with zero evidence, but was causing a great deal of anxiety to the EK community. Unfortunately it has turned out to be true. I see the title of the thread has been amended from 30% to 50% (it probably should be revised upwards again.

The next issue is that you claim to have been in the sandpit for a long time, yet you think that should the remaining pilots volunteer for a pay cut, others might be saved. That is delusional! Management decides how many staff will stay and what remuneration they will receive. This is not a democracy and we have zero input to make!

I think you are the delusional one here mate. I was not suggesting that it was a job saving measure, I was saying that it was a charitable, LIFE saving measure to out colleagues who will have no income for food or other essentials for 12 months. I think the minimum wage for expat workers under UAE labour law is about 1500DHMs a month. Giving fellow company pilots that amount at least can make a big difference. If say 2000 777 pilots gave just 500 dhms a month to the 400 or so Unpaid leave colleagues, it is such a minuscule, doable, charitable act, that would make the difference between genuine hardship/ forced resignation, or staying employed.

I get it though, you don't want to do anything to help out, that is your right, sad though that pilots' wives can organise help but actual pilots would do nothing. There is NO solidarity amongst the pilot group in EK, in fact there never has been really. You have yourself a good day 146.

Oh Captain Sham - there was no option to choose acft types in 06, and as I had flown 717s and 146s, I didn't really care if I was put on Airbus or Boeing. Luck of the draw.

[EchoKilla]

Awwwww Capn Rex Havoc all of a sudden you couldn’t deal with the credibility. I did decide to choose the “most uncredible source” while you clearly didn’t read Bloomberg which was also publishing the same news. Glad all of a sudden you agree it’s higher than the sentiment. But awwww you are so caring - let’s open that fund up and send to TC our 500 dirhams a month. Why don’t you contribute first.

I don’t think you are close to a pilot as far as I am concerned... you would have apologized many months ago. Enjoy your ego and zero contribution to helping your fellow EK pilots and let alone anyone else for that matter

Sad state of mind and I’m sure I’m going to hear another round of how dare that’s stated and another cry to pprune moderators to simply block - oh your fingers on a keyboard work?

[FoxAlfa21]

Jeez its so funny to see some guys just trying to be the next Mother Teresa.

I can guarantee pilots are helping pilots in the extent of their possibilities, maybe not posting it on forums or facebook just to be cheered by the other pilots. Suggesting all of the pilots to take a 10% or 5% cut just because of charity without caring about THEIR situation is what is so crazy for me.

If a Pilot that got offered UPL cannot put "food on the table" then that tells me everything, extremely bad financing, extremely high lifestyle etc, resign, get your 100k+ usd plus EOSB and start again somewhere else. That's what I'm planning to do anyway so don't tell me is BS because I'm not in that spot.
Otherwise if a Pilot just needs a push or a little help with another issue other than the stupidity of not being able to pay his loans I'm sure the rest of the pilot community will be happy to help.

Done with this BS

[Newcomer2]

At the time this thread was started, there was no known way of confirming the impending carnage. At the time there were a lot of people anxious about the future and the "warning" you are referring to was presented with zero evidence, but was causing a great deal of anxiety to the EK community. Unfortunately it has turned out to be true. I see the title of the thread has been amended from 30% to 50% (it probably should be revised upwards again.

I'll give you a hint:
PPRUNE: Professional Pilots Rumor Network

[donpizmeov]

and btw Don, my name is also on that long long list of guys who got the one way ticket...It is what it is....I learned my ‘sandpit’ lesson the hard way....
I don’t miss EK for a second, but the flying and the good trips a lot....
still like a few others, would have loved the UPL option instead...

However, we’re moving on...got no other choice.....

It's a very long list 5 star, and filled with names of gentlemen, professionals and friends. I am sorry to hear you were part of this. I can only imagine the stress of being forced to leave at a time and on terms which were not your own. I hope you are doing ok.

My comments weren't aimed at you. And I am sorry if they appeared that way. The comments were aimed at those classy fellas, who on hearing that Rex was also made redundant, jumped up and down yelling we were right you were wrong, apologise to US. What a sad place our profession has descended into. But, perhaps it's a cultural thing. :ok:

[White Knight]

termination letter one year forward and depending on EK, (if they are still solvent at that point) may have no easy access to your provident fund.

You would suggest then that all current 777 pilots and the 380 pilots still flying quit now in case there will be no PF in the future?

Don't really know what else to say about your 'advice'......

[WB1900]

for this who have it I personally it going to be frozen with company contribution anymore - after all a consequent step.
but you will be able to contribute by yourself and above the 5% - you choose. For sure the release will only be after you leave to keep a pressure point on you - but that’s only me thinking that way

[Fuel-Off]

​If say 2000 777 pilots gave just 500 dhms a month to the 400 or so Unpaid leave colleagues, it is such a minuscule, doable, charitable act, that would make the difference between genuine hardship/ forced resignation, or staying employed​​​​​​

I believe that was done when the 777 pilots were flying close to full rosters, doing 20hr turns and trying not to :mad: up to give Fleet a reason to sack you, all the while on half salary for 6 months (or working on unpaid leave for 3 - whichever way you look at).

Point being, no matter what savings were introduced, it still wasn't going to save jobs. EK used this crisis as a convenient opportunity to excuse themselves from their egotistical A380 orders and still save face.

[Joker11]

https://mobile.twitter.com/theprojecttv/status/1320643844438974466?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembe d%7Ctwterm%5E1320643844438974466%7Ctwgr%5Eshare_3&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.aerotelegraph.com%2Fvom-a380-kaepitan-zum-busfahrer

[Flying Clog]

Depressing as hell that video.

One cheery guy (good on him), and the other one barely able to keep the tears at bay. I wouldn't want the second one driving a bus I'm on in that state.

[MissChief]

Good for both guys. And I doubt that the 380 skipper is tearful when he's driving, just when he's being interviewed on camera by a pro. She herself would be tearful when asked about her career being wrenched from her.

[vegan.snowflake]

When hiring starts back up, just remember how you were treated back in 2020, and decided wisely.

[Mr Good Cat]

UAE is now off the UK Quarantine List. Once the lockdown ends, that will surely be a bit of a lifeline to the UAE and EK. There's a huge winter sun market waiting to explode into life.

[awair]

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-travel-corridors

[The Outlaw]

You would suggest then that all current 777 pilots and the 380 pilots still flying quit now in case there will be no PF in the future?

Don't really know what else to say about your 'advice'......

Call it what you like, advice, suggestion or fair warning. Its nothing more than a consideration for those affected. Its not a point for debate.

[Mr Good Cat]

LorisBatacchi

Well, I guess it depends on how much Dubai depends on the UK market for its airline and propping up its tourism economy. I think the UK is a market that is guaranteed to bring in winter money for the city, and also a massive chunk of the leisure market in airline seats.

If testing is in place, then it’s a lifeline for the economy. Without it, likely more airline job losses and a faltering economy.

I would have thought most on here would welcome the news?

[Mr Good Cat]

I don’t think any state in the ‘western hemisphere’ has it under control. And I don’t think that will change anytime soon.

This is why testing is the crucial piece of the puzzle. If Dubai can accept tourists and passengers who are certified virus-free at the point of travel it could save the economy.

I also accept that a lot depends on Abu Dhabi. I guess there’s no benefit to them of letting Dubai and EK prosper whilst risking the virus entering the country.

[White Knight]

Its not a point for debate.

Anything on here is up for debate:rolleyes:

[krismiler]

Whilst the UAE may be off the UK quarantine list, the UK is locked down until 2 December and whilst 1.2 million Brits visited last year, many of them would be 3 night stopovers on the way to somewhere else.

There could be some demand over the northern hemisphere winter for a sunny, COVID free destination and Dubai has plenty of attractions and cheap hotel rooms. However, as a destination in its own right it won’t be filling A380s and B777s, EK needs the long haul transit traffic it was designed for and that won’t be back until sometime after a vaccine is in widespread use.

SQ is grounding the A380s and most of the B777s for around the next 12 months and will be operating B737s, B787s and A350s. CX are grounding many of their B777s and are going A321/A350 and don’t want the B777-X until 2025. EY has abandoned plans for world domination and is becoming a medium sized airline. QR have grounded the A380 and may not bring it back.

[WB1900]

Lufthansa is taking out b777 and A320 worth 124 airplanes across the entire group
air France dumped the 380 as well as BA will or is doing it

[MissChief]

I have grave doubts that Dubai has suddenly become a safe destination. Says who?

Any adverse statistics or news concerning the dictatorship of Dubai are quickly buried before they can ever appear in the media. Information suppression is the name of the game there, as it also is in the other "United" emirates.

Nevertheless, I am sure that EK will make a mighty attempt to resurrect itself once the panic-stricken public can fly long-haul again. There could be a battle royal between EK and QR. EY looks to have thrown in the towel already.

[bringbackthe80s]

International travel like that on a decent scale is 3/4 years away. Move on, nothing to see here

[euroxx]

Covid is far from under control in the uae. The amount of people running around, coughing and having flu like symptoms is very prevalent.

what dubai does have under control is information suppression by under reporting cases, in a bid to minimize the impact on the economy.

if anything with the amount of employees, from laborers to cleaners, restaurant staff and even hotel staff having to share transport, accommodation and even bathrooms , you don’t have to think about it twice that dubai is not reporting the actual amount of cases

[NoodleDriver]

I would hazard to say not unlike a rather large nation where the virus started.

A nation of 1.4 billion people densely populated cities and just like that all cured and aviation and the economy back and booming on a domestic scale.

The CP of C decided that it could no longer afford the economic disaster that was occurring and in such declared the virus defeated.

If more nations actually just got on with business while dealing with the pandemic in a more balanced approach instead of completely shutting down many of us would still be employed.

[krismiler]

In Singapore, COVID spread like wildfire throughout the foreign worker dormitories where migrant labourers from the Indian subcontinent live in close proximity, sharing bathrooms and dining facilities. New cases were around 1000 per day at the peak and 94% of COVID cases occurred in these facilities. The virus is now under control in Singapore, with no new cases for a week and about 60 current ones.

Does Dubai house it’s foreign labour in similar conditions? 🤔

[allert]

Does Dubai house it’s foreign labour in similar conditions? 🤔

It certainly does. It’s highly likely that the amount of cases is way under reported there.

[NOFLY7773]

UAE reported over 20000 new cases in a two week period, yet somehow the active cases continued to go down. Unless they figured out how to get rid of the virus quickly I call B/s. only a couple of days ago did it start going back up.

[krismiler]

The UAE may possibly be misrepresenting its COVID case numbers in an attempt to open up to other countries. Singapore had very few deaths due to COVID as most of the cases occurred in fit young migrant workers, rather than general population and the dormitories were easy to lock down to contain the spread. Out of the 58 000 cases, 94% were in the dormitories and there have been only 28 fatalities.

If the situation is similar in Dubai, a cover up would be relatively easy as they wouldn’t be dealing with large numbers of bodies.

COVID case numbers are spreading like wildfire in the important markets of Europe, USA and India. Travel bubbles are a highly restrictive solution and won’t provide pax in the numbers the airlines need. Japan, Hong Kong and South Korea which were thought to have beaten the virus are showing a worrying increase in cases.

The best solution is a vaccine, and recent news has been very encouraging with several highly effective ones likely to be available in the next few weeks. Widespread use coming in the early part of next year.

However long haul transit traffic, particularly at the premium end will be the last to recover. Unlike other hub airlines, EK don’t have smaller aircraft to downgrade to. SQ and CX are becoming narrow body operators, and with SQ grounding the A380 and most B777s they have stopped selling suites and first class for the next year.

Bill Gates predicts a 50% reduction in business travel post COVID, and even if he’s only half right it’s still a major drop.

EK need a complete restructure in its business model for it to complete going forwards. Long range, premium travel in large aircraft needs to change to smaller aircraft doing shorter flights with more emphasis on volume passengers. The A321 and B787 appear to be preferred types for the next few years.

[bringbackthe80s]

Forgetting all the cases/numbers/bill gates predictions, the simple truth is that the very environment for which these airlines have been created simply does not exist anymore and will not exist for a relatively long time.
This applies to many other businesses too.

Now, you either face and approach this trying to reinvent a business that simply doesn’t make any financial sense anymore as it is right now, or you sit and wait for things to go back to 2019 which they will not.
Many government backed airlines were losing money before covid anyway so I don’t thing a change is coming soon for those. After all, air transport is a NEED, a STRATEGIC ASSET, and a SERVICE for the governments and the community. And it should be seen and backed as such. And supported when times are not ideal. We are not selling birthday cards here.

But for any business which actually tries to make some money, well they either change completely or you know what happens next.
We’ll see which airlines have the most visionary managers, and the governments with the deepest pockets (the latter one being the only real chance of survival right now, as simple as that). But if you ask me, good luck with waiting for the British family going on a Thai holiday.

[White Knight]

good luck with waiting for the British family going on a Thai holiday.

Think you may be in for a surprise.... Many thousands of Brits will be looking forward to escaping once travel is less restrictive!

Bill Gates predicts a 50% reduction in business travel post COVID, and even if he’s only half right it’s still a major drop.

Lots of people predicted huge reductions post GFC '08/'09. It picked up pretty quickly. There is NO substitute for face to face meetings. Zoom can't show body language (80 to 90% of the understanding of a conversation) and often the connections drop out, so in the long run video meetings just don't cut it!

[fatbus]

"Think you may be in for a surprise.... Many thousands of Brits will be looking forward to escaping once travel is less restrictive!"

Both Dubai and Thailand as well as others need millions of tourists not thousands ! With many of those would be tourists are now unemployed.

My guess and only that, a guess, very long recovery.

[777boyo]

As well as Brits, most Northern Europeans, Russians, Chinese.....and anyone else who is either sun-starved or shopping starved. Here in Malaysia, as soon as restrictions on inter-state travel were lifted, movement resumed in large numbers of domestic travellers. International travel was (and still is) largely impossible, but I suspect the same would have occurred had it been a practical option. My guess is that there is similar suppressed demand everywhere so recovery will be 'V' shaped rather than gradual. For everyone still in the airline business, especially former friends and colleagues, I certainly hope that will be the case.
And I'm buying Airline and Cruise stocks in limited quantities :)!

[WB1900]

fatbus

Leisure travel will recover fairly quickly once the restrictions a lifted - but business travel is going to be a long shot likely never
even there was a trend before COVID to have physical meetings and technology made some progress towards virtual meetings still 70-80% left in real meetings - due to COVID this technology made a huge jump forward and has turned the game completely towards only 30% of your business need a real contact and that’s the scary part

[777boyo]

I suspect business travel will also bounce back. My brother works for a well known multi-national commodities/mining company, and he and many of his colleagues are simply unable to carry out their work via conference calls. Their travel is obviously currently restricted, and they are itching to start moving again. I agree that it’s only a sample of one, but I suspect that many industries or sectors will be in similar situations.

[Fired600]

The interesting bit will be how exactly Emirates will carry these passengers. They have decimated the A380 fleet and hacked the 777 workforce back to minimums. Even if it is a V shaped recovery post vaccine are they prepared and able to service the pent up demand?

[EchoKilla]

wow the discussion has changed now to how quickly ek will recover and be the “best of the best” instead of how they treated their pilots like garbage

amazing... please start a new thread - this is about EK crew getting dumped, not about TCTC future!

[BigGeordie]

Fired600, Emirates have 400 Airbus pilots they can bring back with a month's notice - most would be able to (and, crucially, want to) come back with less. That is before they start to recall the ones they made redundant, most of whom would be begging to come back just to put food on the table. The 380s are parked up at Dubai World, not in some corner of Arizona or Australia, and they can be made serviceable again very quickly. They can service any remotely conceivable increase in demand.

[BigGeordie]

With regard to premium travel, I think that might bounce back quicker than economy if there is a perception that it is more covid secure due to greater social distancing, being able to wait in a lounge rather than the terminal and so on. It is all about perception at the moment.

[WB1900]

And this exactly what TC wanted starve everyone so they will come back no matter what - and his stated „no worries about employees they all will come back“ and best is he again can do what ever he wants in terms of TnC - isn’t it great

[Fired600]

BigGeordie

You would think they would ramp the 777 first since its easier to fill and cheaper, but who knows.

[bluewhy]

BigGeordie

Highly unlikely. Look at the numbers you are talking about. Someone who would pay £850 for LHR-BKK via Dubai return, won't go on an pay £3600 for the same journey just to be more socially distanced.

Especially after IATA reported that out of 1.5bn passengers flown in 2020 there have been only 44 flight-related covid infections.

[White Knight]

You would think they would ramp the 777 first since its easier to fill and cheaper, but who knows.

Every 777 is being used. That is why there are now four 380s being used as freighters....

please start a new thread - this is about EK crew getting dumped

Starting the thread doesn't imply ownership of the thread... And yes, the discussion is pertinent as it would be nice to avoid anymore redundancies! Discussing any ray of hope I believe is part of this thread! My opinion anyway!

[White Knight]

WB1900

Anyone who has studied the basics of instructing and teaching will tell you that over 80% of a conversation is made up of body language. It can't be done over a video link! I'd reckon that any company about to negotiate and sign a big money contract would rather have their people fly premium, have the meeting and seal a deal and fly back again. That 10,000 USD First Class ticket may make millions of dollars in a human to human deal. The pundits have tried to write off business travel every time there's a hiccup. It's always come back!

[WB1900]

i could not agree more to what you said - I am old school and think meeting in person has much more value than anything else, but being an IT fuzzy as well I see some industrial trends which scares me and leaving room for doubt on a fast and big bounce back of industrial or business travel

[Fired600]

Fired600

Every 777 is being used. That is why there are now four 380s being used as freighters....



Does beg the question as to why they got rid of 777 pilots, unless its just to fill the slots with locals !

[krismiler]

What are the pax loads like on the flights ? Flying around with double digit pax numbers isn't sustainable long term. Freight may be a big factor at the moment and might tip the scale past covering costs to actually making a profit on the operation, though overall the company is losing money. The A380 is almost certainly being used as nothing else is available and aircraft/crew currency can be maintained. If B777s, B787s or A350s could be used instead then the giant would be in a long term storage program.

[5star]

Fired600

The reason why the 777 guys were let go, was purely to take revenge if you’ve had an event of 3 or more weeks of sickness in the past, or they held a disciplinary against you. People with cancer, broken leg or similiar, even one who lost a close family member after an accident and required time off, they all could feel first hand that some dd in charge, we all know their names, give rats xss about anything... Just look at how they treat their workers so it should not come as a surprise....
Performance good or bad on the line or in the sim played nill factor. I know 2 guys with ‘stick it up your -ss awards’ who got the boot as well...Hence these ‘bad’ seeds were also not offered the UPL option....
They also reckon the school in dwc will produce enough of local sausage to fill the holes for a few years...

[fatbus]

I concur with 5 star on all points .

[White Knight]

They also reckon the school in dwc will produce enough of local sausage to fill the holes for a few years...

Gotta hand you quote of the month for that one:D

[White Knight]

krismiler

Now you're just getting boring... But to answer your question. The LHR (until latest pointless UK lockdown) had high premium loads. Especially in First. Moscow? Pretty much full in all cabins. Once countries open up I reckon the 380 is going to be in high demand as there is a lot of pent up travel waiting to happen!

Why don't you go and bang your 787,321 or 350 drum elsewhere as you've been spouting this stuff since March on several forums! Air Travel WILL COME BACK in a big way... Not overnight but it will.

[Emma Royds]

Worth bearing in mind that there could be a greater percentage of pax in premium cabins using Skywards miles to either upgrade or fund their ticket, which in turn diminishes revenue. Flights are quiet and seat availability in theory should be abundant, unless the company has restricted this.

I do believe the 777 fleet was planned to contract slightly in size so whilst I am not disputing the malevolence of management, there may have been some rationale behind the decision to trim numbers. However given we are now short of pilots on the triple, it appears to have been grossly misjudged.

[krismiler]

Air Travel WILL COME BACK in a big way... Not overnight but it will.

Agreed, IATA expect long haul travel to recover in 2024. Initially there will be a big surge when restrictions are lifted and pent up demand can be catered to, after that it will tail off into the new normal and a gradual recovery.

EK are in a unique position with the A380, being by far the largest operator and having the largest selection of possible routes for it. If they can't make money with it then no one can. However other airlines which have a handful of A380s making up a small percentage of their fleets are retiring them. The only other significant operator, SQ, is downsizing the fleet but will be refitting the cabins. A merged Korean Air/Asiana will probably retain them. The A380 will fly again but with a handful of operators in fewer numbers.

The question is "How many A380s can EK operate in the short to medium term while the industry recovers,and will it need the entire fleet again in 2024 ?" In 4 years time EK could have them all back in the air and be 1 of the few airlines with the type. Unfortunately COVID exposed the vulnerability of relying too much on long haul premium transit traffic, using large aircraft. Other hub airlines such as QR, TK, ET, SQ etc have smaller aircraft types which allow greater flexibility in destinations and frequencies.

EK could choose to reduce the A380 fleet if the recovery isn't as strong as predicted. Swapping B777-X orders for B787-9 was a good move. Narrow bodies would also be worth considering as they open up destinations which can't support the B777, and allow gradual increases in capacity and frequency on routes. FlyDubai isn't an equivalent product so the aircraft need to be EK operated.

After the pandemic, airlines will be looked at in detail to see how they performed during the crisis and changes could well be made where deficiencies are noted.

[glofish]

Agreed, IATA expect long haul travel to recover in 2024

Yes, agreed .... and by 2024 Trump will run again.
In the mean time Biden is president elect and the 380 is history, irrespective to whatever narrative you choose to abide to.

[transport jock]

Swapping B777-X orders for B787-9 was a good move. Narrow bodies would also be worth considering as they open up destinations which can't support the B777, and allow gradual increases in capacity and frequency on routes. FlyDubai isn't an equivalent product so the aircraft need to be EK operated.

I think one of the reasons for getting the Max at FZ, along with the lie flat seats in business etc, was to align the 2 products a lot better.

The Max grounding didnt help with that of course but with new IFE's supposedly coming to the fz fleet next year, I think more enhancements are on the way to make it more of a EK style product on FZ aircraft. (with some limitations of course due to the size of the 737)

FZ has 200+ max's on order still, I see zero chance of EK ordering any narrow bodies.

(also, FZ has already been opening destinations for EK and taking over lower demand/seasonal routes which werent viable for EK)

[krismiler]

So a possible Qantas and Jetstar arrangement, where pax on the premium carrier’s tickets can be accommodated on the LCC version and given a few extras such as 30kgs baggage, meals, seat selection, priority boarding, lounge access, FF miles etc ?

SQ and CX chose to bring the narrow bodies into the mainline operation, probably for greater control of the end product, but with increased costs.

Both approaches have their advantages and disadvantages and it will be interesting to see how it works out. I still feel that having EK operating smaller types under their own brand on more premium routes which can’t take the B777, and using FZ for leisure and worker destinations would give them an advantage, similar to Qantas and Jetstar both operating narrow bodies.

[donpizmeov]

You are consistent Gloie. What is it now? A bit over a decade you have been predicting this? Don't, read the results of the latest Skywards survey, it will just upset you.
No doubt you will think it fake news, and claim you won. Oh wait there, that's that other fella that Biden arse kicked. What's his name again? :E

[bluewhy]

EK played and lost with the A380. The egoistic and aggressive expansion comes at a price. Yes, once Dubai was a hub and EK was number 1. By the time long haul travel fully recovers in 2024, direct routes from the UK to AUS and from India to the USA etc. will be the new norm.

[Callone]

Something strange is going on between FZ and EK they are not really working as partners in many markets.
New flights to Tel Aviv last example, 2 FZ daily flights and 1 EK flight in competition between each other or check Maldives ( basically same story )

[fatbus]

Both government entities,do you not think it's all about max yield. Dubai can care less where the money comes from as long as they get it !

[transport jock]

New flights to Tel Aviv last example, 2 FZ daily flights and 1 EK flight in competition between each other

I dont see any EK flights operating to Tel Aviv at all.. Just the 2 FZ flights.. Fz also doesnt do daily MLE at the moment. Whats interesting though is that booking on the EK website, the biz ticket on fz is almost double the price than what it is on the FZ website..

[glofish]

Hi Don

Yes, i am consistent and yes, i predicted the demise of the 380.
A bit of a lame try to revert my allegory against me, i have to say, not quite your normal league.
Btw: I actually do read Skywards, but my 16 years at EK told me how to interpret this publication.

I promise that if by 2024 there would be more than 25 dugongs flying regular line flights for EK, i will beg your pardon!

[Enos]

bluewhy

For my 6 cents worth I disagree.

Dubai is a hub and as much as we read about point to point it doesnt work 100% of the time, hubs will be required to get to airports that simply can’t attract point to point traffic Perth to Muscat for example.

Perth to London attracted a lot of media attention when Qantas started the route, how much cargo do they carry on that route ? Cargo is 25% of the revenue of some airlines, airlines can lower their fares by offering shorter legs carrying cargo and leaving fuel behind, ever looked at the passenger profile of some people you’ve flown over the years, they bought the ticket because of the price.

380s (I fly the 777) you can get more passengers into airports that have limited slots, everyone says the 380s good for London, Sydney etc ... it’s great for Dubai with its two runways and passengers love it!

We may not see 100 380s flying in 2024 but it will be around with Emirates for some time in big numbers.

[Callone]

transport jock

https://www.jewishpress.com/news/travel-news/emirates-flydubai-to-launch-regular-flights-to-tel-aviv/2020/11/06/

You are correct EK does not fly to Tel Aviv yet, I was misled from the article above. The 2 FZ flights are not in codesharing with EK.
To Maldives FZ fly 5 times a week and daily sometimes ( end of December ) again no codeshare and in competition with the daily EK flight.

[bluewhy]

380s (I fly the 777) you can get more passengers into airports that have limited slots, everyone says the 380s good for London, Sydney etc ... it’s great for Dubai with its two runways and passengers love it!


For the routes and the pax numbers you are referring to, a dozen A380s will be more than enough. And this is where EK has failed. They have 125.

Global trends suggest that the general public is becoming more and more environmentally conscious. Pax starting to prefer carriers who are offseting carbon emissions and use fuel efficient aircraft.

4 engine aircraft are a thing of the past whether we like it or not.

[bringbackthe80s]

There is no logical or financial reason to operate any 380 at any airline anywhere in the world. As simple as that. Also nobody really has a clue of how international travel will look like in the mid future, if it will exist in any significant form that is. This is the sad truth. You couldn’t make it up, I know. But we might as well smell the coffee. Better focus on cargo and smaller airplanes believe me. And those lucky few who will come out of this with a flying job better count blessings.

[bvcu]

on that argument never was a need for 747 either?

[bluewhy]

How is the 747 related to all this ?

Anyway, no need to argue. Let's let the facts speak for themselves.

[tdracer]

bvcu

Aside from the 40 year time difference, the 747 predates ETOPS (or whatever they're calling it this week). Once there was 180 minute ETOPS, along with the technology to make highly reliable 70k - 100k lb. thrust engines, the advent of big, long range twins greatly diminished the need for big quads.

[glofish]

.... additionally digging into the history of the 747 reveals some fundamentals as to why the 380 is the prime victim of a slowdown like the one Covid19 now presents. (This is taken from Wikipedia with slight redactions for coherence)

The original design of the 747 included a full-length double-deck fuselage with eight-across seating and two aisles on the lower deck and seven-across seating and two aisles on the upper deck. However, concern over evacuation routes and limited cargo-carrying capability caused this idea to be scrapped in early 1966 in favor of a wider single deck design.

This shows, that the Boeing engineers realized already in 1966, that two decks of passengers for one deck of freight would hamper the commercial viability of an airliner

At the time, it was widely thought that the 747 would eventually be superseded by supersonic transport aircraft.

This shows, that Boeing did not fall for the hubris of thinking that their design would be the cherry on the pie for eternity and therefore:

Boeing responded by designing the 747 so that it could be adapted easily to carry freight and remain in production even if sales of the passenger version declined. Additionally they wanted to conform to the USAF requirements for the studies of a CX-Heavy Logistics System (CX-HLS) aircraft. Such an aircraft needed to be able to be loaded from the front, thus a door had to be included where the cockpit usually was.

The 380 made this unviable with their cockpit design, therefore making a future rebuilt cargo version not competitive enough, especially considering the need for strengthening the middle floor and thus adding too much weight.

The desire to keep the number of engines to four required new engine designs with greatly increased power and better fuel economy

So even in 1966 Boeing knew of the economical disadvantage of more engines (although they then set the limit at 4). Airbus might have set it at a more modern 2 and would have realized the thin economical range of their 380 if having to stay at 4.

[Capn Rex Havoc]

Glo - A few misconceptions here, I believe, As far as I recall, Boeing were putting all their eggs in the supersonic basket. The supersonic programme nearly bankrupted Boeing, and after they scrapped it they scrambled for anything that might save the company, Joe Sutter was working on a dedicated very large freighter (the 747) and the execs at Boeing quickly got him to change focus and switch the 747 to a pax aircraft. I may have this all wrong, but I thought that was the background when I read Joe Sutter's book many moons ago,

[donpizmeov]

glofish

380 can carry it's full ZFW DXB to LAX (well anywhere out to 15.5hrs really) in DXB summer. The 773er is payload restricted to just 300 seats on that same flight (and starts reducing potential ZFW for fuel after 11hrs due to MTOW. So all that extra cargo space stays empty ULR, oops). Each aeroplane can do some good stuff. The 777 has been a very valuable workhorse since march. The 380 proved valuable when the runway shutdown last year.

But thanks for the history lesson. Interesting stuff.

Anyhow, let's hope your cry for its demise is as wrong as its previous 16yrs has proven, as I would like to see some of those very experienced and professional workmates return as quick as possible. I don't really care which aeroplane is shinier, larger, faster etc, but I do care that lots of workmates and their families have been placed under a lot of pressure this year. Whatever way forward helps them out the fastest gets my vote.

[glofish]

Amen to that, don.
My take is simply that for our colleagues it might be better not to wait and hope that the 380 will fly in big numbers again, but to look out and opt for (in my view!!) more realistic alternatives.

[Dropp the Pilot]

Usually the term "willing suspension of disbelief" applies to aesthetics but the genius TC is the first to apply it to business practice.

Nothing other than an intersection of Gallic hubris, impotence and ineptitude could have caused the excrescence to be built. Fanfare and FOMO brought it into service but nothing but the most willful ignorance of economics or a change of the laws of physics wil enable it to be operated at a profit.

I would be intrigued to know what combination of "premium passengers", bars, and showers could accomodate a 20% difference in fuel efficiency. Perhaps a petting zoo or menagerie? Swimming pool? Casino?


https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/Transatlantic_Fuel_Efficiency_Ranking_20180912.pdf

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1354x1032/screen_shot_2020_11_25_at_7_28_29_am_47e242478ae93e4c07569e0 38d5d09ff53ffcfb6.png

[donpizmeov]

Are you looking at a different chart than the one you posted Dropp, as that does not support your rant.

[aussiefarmer]

I am with Don, if all this "optimistic scenarios" allow for some or most of the hard-working and professional colleagues to return, then let's hope they materialize.

I believe it's now trendy to say that "the A380 is over" - and it probably is for most airlines - but most people seem to conveniently forget two or three things:

1. Emirates' main purpose is not to make money but to serve as a catalyzer of Dubai economy. At the end of the day, making a profit (in the financial statements at the end of the year) is a plus.
And no, EK dividend won't pay Dubai's financial debt as many like to believe... as the group profit is totally insignificant in comparison.

2. EK owns or has active leasing agreements for about 120 A380s. They cannot just write them off and make them disappear from their books. It is in Emirates' best interest that they get those A380s flying so they can offset some of the fixed costs they have until they can get rid of some of them. Also, A380s represent a huge percentage of the fleet and possibly about half of the capacity the airline has, when recovery is underway airlines will fight to gain or retain market share - they won't care about yield, at least at the beginning.

3. OMDB, as it is nowadays, is built for the A380 there has been massive investment to make the airport and its amenities suit that particular airplane and that specific pax density.
EK, Dubai Airports and Dubai can't just change that structural business model in a few months or a couple of years, it is a long term change and that won't happen before the pandemic ends.

So yes, makes sense, TC wants all 380s to fly in 2022 because is what EK and Dubai need and are built for. They will probably be half empty, but that was already happening before!

Regarding how to crew the airplanes I believe the plan is quite obvious: fire and rehire. Rehire under new T&Cs according to what the market demands and the changes that have already been implemented until now, and they get to choose who gets called and who doesn't based on your past history. Perfect scenario for them. Sure, a small percentage might have found another way to make 10,000USD+ a month but I think they're not that many!

[bluewhy]

Regarding how to crew the airplanes I believe the plan is quite obvious: fire and rehire. Rehire under new T&Cs according to what the market demands and the changes that have already been implemented until now, and they get to choose who gets called and who doesn't based on your past history. Perfect scenario for them. Sure, a small percentage might have found another way to make 10,000USD+ a month but I think they're not that many!

You are implying that people will be always willing to sacrifice their personal and professional dignity, job security and life stability by going back to EK because they "weren't able to find another way to make 10k USD a month".

Bless whoever after all still doesn't realise the actual price of those 10k a month. How sad.

[RoyHudd]

There will be plenty of takers for EK jobs even at much lower T & C's. Much as I loathe Dubai and the surrounding emirates, I too would have taken a job there if it was the only job in town. As for my loyalty though, I would not feel any..

Luckily, I never needed to work permanently in that part of the world. Contract work in Libya, Algeria and Tunisia was handsomely paid, but boy what a pain the local management and pilots often were. I just concentrated on my safety and felt good about the accruing money. Same considerations will apply to EK rejoiners, I suspect.

[krismiler]

If the A380 wasn't already flying, there wouldn't be any need to design and build it in the current market. The B777 does almost as much at a lower cost and the B787 opens up point to point routes which don't need a hub. It's now a niche product, similar to the Concorde with BA, where it works out for a small number of airlines on certain routes only.

EK will probably retain the A380 but in reduced numbers and on premium routes which will give the airline an edge over its rivals. Hubs will still be needed but they will be smaller and more regionally focused, the days of a single mega hub for the entire world are probably over. Point to point will increase and point to regional hub will increase, the line between origin and destination will straighten out a lot as more hub choices become available. People will still transit through Dubai as it's a convenient location but there will be less need for a major dog leg in their journey. ET could become the hub airline for Africa and TK for Europe for example.

This pandemic showed up which airlines were best placed to cope with the situation, basically those with small to medium sized aircraft could string something together while they grounded their larger airframes. Major performance analysis will be done in the aftermath, and strategies put in place in case another COVID situation occurs again.

[White Knight]

They will probably be half empty, but that was already happening before!

Not that I recall... At least not on my flights!

the days of a single mega hub for the entire world are probably over. Point to point will increase and point to regional hub will increase,

There will be some more point to point; but the mega-hubs in the ME are geographically in the 'centre of the world' and service a far huger potential network then I think you realise! I hardly see Entebbe getting a direct Chicago for example! Or LAX to the Seychelles... And Ethiopian simply does not have the fleet to support a hub that's big enough to offer enough choice!

[bluewhy]

You can put lipstick on a pig, it will still be a pig. EK have failed with the A380.

It will be years until it generates any sort of profit again for them. And when it does, they will still have around 100 too many.

[aussiefarmer]

Not that I recall... At least not on my flights!

A minor detail, really, but pre-covid LF has been hovering around 75%-77% in the last 5 years which means for each full A380 of yours there's at least one flying half empty.

[glofish]

aussiefarmer

I don't think it's "trendy" to write off the 380, it's common sense economics.
If you pretend that EK's main purpose is not to make money, but to catalyse Dubai's economy, this effectively contradicts the "mega-hub" theory. A hub's only worth for its location is to make money. Transiting passengers will not catalyse any other business than the duty-free.
And last: Airliners flying half empty might be acceptable to satisfy leasing agreements and an airport structural business model, but even as you pretend that profit might not be the target, half empty planes cannot catalyse any economy either ....

[Yorkshire_Pudding]

I’m pretty sure that with both F and J full and economy completely empty on high yield EU 380 routes, the sector will still break even, 20% LF.

[BigGeordie]

Nobody here knows if EK "failed" with the 380 or not. Nobody knows what the break-even load factor was, is or will be because it is a closely guarded commercial secret. Did (do) Emirates have too many? Almost certainly. While it is definitely the wrong aircraft for a global pandemic this mess won't last forever and coming out of it, who knows? A reduced 380 fleet could end up making good money on carefully chosen routes and there will be a lot less competition going forward. Emirates is sure to be the only 380 operator with more than a handful in service and the passengers do like it.

[donpizmeov]

glofish

Actually gloie, he is right and you are not. If you had listened during your EK indoctrination lecture all those years ago you would know this. The Dubai economy growth is based on the Hong Kong and Singapore models. Where growth of the economy is directly proportional to the growth of their airline
For Dubai, and EK, 75% of passengers transit only, so the seat count that the Dubai government has set for EK is based on making that 25% equal how many spenders they need staying in Dubai. It has been this way since the airline started.
Your hub vs direct model is a Boeing model. And is why the 787 was born. It will work in most of the world, but it is not the model that Dubai uses.
From folk in route planning, if you have 5 380s coming into dubai you need 4 leaving to take the onwards pax. This is obviously not going to work when the world is shut down, but it was working up until March.
And no, they don't don't fly around half empty when the world is working. And no they don't need to only serve major destinations. MRU for example had two 380s per day, 1 2 class with over 600 seats and the other a 3 class with over 500 seats. They were both full. As were the other destinations it served.
If we didn't have the 120 380s we would have needed 180 777s to replace them. How many would be redundant now if that was the case.
The sooner the world returns to normal the sooner we can get workmates re employed. You have argued the same thing for 16yrs. You are still wrong, but now it is tiresome, and at the same time insensitive to those that have been let go from their jobs, either by redundancy or LWOP.

[skeggman]

BigGeordie

Not quite true. When I worked for EK in IT, we had access to all sorts of info (this included). For the A380 is was based on 82% capacity to break even.

The average capacity during my time was only around 77% during peak periods, and as low as 60% during off-peak.

[donpizmeov]

We were told those same numbers many years ago by commercial. However we were told they relation to the upper deck, on a full fare basis. Now fuel was much more expensive back then, so would have no clue what more modern numbers would be.

[777boyo]

"Break Even Load" is incredibly difficult to define, and needs careful use. I very much doubt that the EK Accountants or even the really senior guys would be able to give a meaningful definitive single number. Does the 82% bandied about here mean Passengers, or Total Load Carried defined in tonnes?
Here's just a few of the issues. Do you mean Break Even as in an individual flight covers its Variable Costs (Fuel, Catering, Nav and Overflight Charges, Handling and Parking Charges, Crew Hotac, and Crew Salaries which have been allocated to the flight etc etc) ? Or do you mean an individual flight covers all those Variable Costs and makes a defined required Contribution to Fixed Costs? Or that a flight covers all its Variable Costs and all its Fixed Costs? Over what period of time? And are you talking about revenue from all sources - Pax, Freight, Mail etc - or just Pax Rev? Just to complicate it even further, if you have two types on a route group, how do you allocate that routes' Fixed Costs to those two types - perhaps by ASK's or some other parameter? How do you allocate the company overheads and fixed costs to an individual flight, or route group (eg EU/North America/SE Asia/UK etc) ? Or do you simply at the end of the Financial Year add up all the company expenses - everything - and somehow decide on an 'average' break even Load Factor across the entire network? This latter approach would be less than useless in assessing the economic viability of a single route or type.
PhD's have been written on this topic, and I'm sure there are Accounting Conventions and practices with very clear definitions, but in talking about Break Even loads, you need to be very specific about what you actually mean.
Just a few things to be aware of - I'm not trying to teach anyone's Granny to suck eggs here.

[White Knight]

I'm not trying to teach anyone's Granny to suck eggs here.

Agreed and a good post above:ok:

[Dashtrash]

Just sticking my nose in here to ask a question. I read an article today where Tim Clark stated, admittedly optimistically that he believes that all 120+ A380s will be back in service by the end of next year or early 2022. Is it correct that EK has fired the bulk of A380 pilots, and a good lot off other fleets? Just in discussion with colleagues about this very scenario whereby a vaccine or two or three are found with great effectiveness and the world is able to resume its wanted/needed flying. Obviously not an overnight miracle but if an airline has to employ a large fleet size crew body it wouldn't be an overnight miracle either. Even if they were previous crew, they have all gone "home" and some might not want to come back. Could airlines that have fired most/all their pilots, painted themselves into a corner?
just a thought.

[Murrenfan]

They will all come back, they are just a phone call away!

[Icarus2001]

No doubt that some are but what about the guy with a wife and two children in school who has now settled them into a new school in their home country and his wife has gone back to work to support the family. Is that guy just waiting for a call to move the family back to the ME?

[glofish]

don, where to start ……

First it is simply unfair (and I am trying to stay polite here ….) to insinuate that by pointing at the economical difficulty to sustain the 380, I am insensitive to the fate of our fellow pilots. That’s cheap populism at its finest, you might as well call someone insensitive when he does not agree to sustain the coal shuffler on electrical trains. When technology is outdated everyone has to move on, that has nothing to do with insensitivity.

I know the Dubai model is based on the Singapore or Hong Kong one, but frankly, CX never had any 380s and SQ is transforming them to restaurants …….

The Dubai model with the 380 evolves more and more to a special one and even another special one had to cede his spotlight to a normal one.

Common sense vs singularities has always been an uneven battle.

[aussiefarmer]

Icarus2001

I reckon there’ll be some that won’t come back if or when called (early retirements, already found other jobs back home etc.) but, in general, most will entertain the possibility of returning. At the end of the day, it wasn’t their choice to leave.

However, EK very clearly made sure that there was no promise of recall whatsoever. Because it all depends on the speed of the “recovery”.

A quick bounce of pax numbers will force EK to recall since it is not quick or easy to train long haul pilots on such a niche type - takes years! And you can’t just use low hour folks. All 380 pilots are current and will require minimal training to return to the line.

A slower recovery will buy time for EK to develop locals and allow them to hire cheaper low experience pilots in the meantime and also offer a chance to let leases expire, retire A380s and substitute them for more efficient types. In this scenario, I believe EK might adopt a different approach and not recall but instead open recruitment as they have done in the past.

Having been an expat pilot for many, many years I believe the EK bunch are particularly good at their job and is heartbreaking to see how much talent has been made redundant this year. Other airlines - like Wizzair for obvious reasons (ex EK management) - are well aware of this and will surely try to compete for these guys as they know they have operated and trained to some of the highest standards in the industry.

[krismiler]

The A380s may return but it would be because airframes are needed quickly, rather than because that particular type is needed. Having a large fleet already parked, with the infrastructure in place makes a return to the skies fairly simple. Even if they all fly again, it may not be for a prolonged period. A certain number will remain depending on the business case, ie how many can be operated profitably. The B787s on order come in nicely below the B777 which gives a reasonably versatile fleet, possibly narrow bodies could be considered as well.

This pandemic showed up EKs over reliance on premium long haul transit traffic, the sector which will be the last to recover. A more diverse fleet would enable a wider market to be covered which is what is needed going forward. Relying on full first and business class cabins in large aircraft won't be possible for a number of years.

[Adam Barfy]

they know they have operated and trained to some of the highest standards in the industry.


You are just embarrassing yourself with that claim.

[Tight Seat]

Another way to think about the A380 and EK is the hub , DXB.
DXB was running just about at capacity before Covid came along. When the recovery happens ( and it will imho) the airport will once again burst at its seams . With no appetite to build and develop DWC the 380 becomes ‘useful’ again. Far cheaper to fund the 380 than a new mega airport.
So, I think the 380 will be around for a while ( although I’m really not sure how they can ramp up sufficient pilot numbers in an expedient fashion).

[WB1900]

You are just embarrassing yourself with that claim.

For everybody who says that EK trains people, sorry to say you haven’t work for a company with training for a long time - EK does not train , has definitiv the shortest sim time in the Industrie, and a lot of trainers ( except a few very fine people) are looking more into the humiliation of the individual than anything else.
EK has the worst pass rate on sim checks and upgrades compared to the hours of experience on the flight deck. Many companies on that scale are training to success and not checking to fail. EK is also a company where a trainee has literally no support from management even its obvious that a trainer is wrong.

[WB1900]

Icarus2001


A quick bounce of pax numbers will force EK to recall since it is not quick or easy to train long haul pilots on such a niche type - takes years! And you can’t just use low hour folks.

Ek has proven quite the opposite
while most pilots entered with 4000 plus jet hours and tons of other type hours, the recent years 1500 TP was enough ( nothing against TP - as I know they are very valuable pilots) - just talking about hours here- and quite a good number of those low hour guy left, where experience had been showed the door.
If the humor is right and all of that - I personally think that’s one of the strategies behind - to make room for all those loca cadet who would not have a job in the next few years - they are all nearly no hours guys and get command a minimum time before any of the returned sees a left seat at all even the individual returns with 10000 plus hours, he will only be hired to be the watch dog of the 0 hour guy to become a commander
and with the words of Abdel - experience is total overrated

[VThokie2]

WB1900

Quite right, anyone who calls that a training department does not know what a real training department looks like. There were many excellent TREs when I was there, TRIs less so, but regardless they were not permitted to really train, in true EK fashion they were micromanaged to the point their past enthusiasm for teaching and experience was relegated to irrelevance. In the United States if a major airline had the failure rates EK possessed the FAA would come and investigate the training department and/or recruiting department. At my current carrier I actually look forward to recurrent training because I get to brush up on my skills, see what’s being highlighted lately, ask some questions (without the resultant change at EK from a 4 to a 3 in the “knowledge” PAM) and when they ask “ya wanna do something extra” the answer is YES! That is a REAL training department, the same cannot be honestly said going into an EK recurrent! Don’t get me wrong.... EK pilots are held to a very high standard however they are not supported by management, nor the safety department, nor the training dept (as a whole with a few exceptions), nor the rostering department, nor the VAST IT dept... not even the accommodation dept!!!! In all instances the EK pilot is expected to revolve around complying and not upsetting the inner working of these fiefdom departments. At a career carrier these departments revolve around the frontline worker, the pilot, the cabin crew, the gate agent to make THEIR jobs and lives smoother. What a concept!

[Dropp the Pilot]

All depends where you're sitting I guess.

By my lights the FAA should be more concernced about the pass rate within their own country. Atlas 3591 comes to mind. American 587. Many.

By observation the most vocal critics of EK training are those whose inadequacy and torpor were exposed by the EK system, and most of those were "trained" in the American system.

I've been fortunate enough to work for a number of airlines and manufacturers. The EK recruitment, training, and recurrent systems are universally considered top tier.

[VThokie2]

Ha, sorry never came close to failing a training event at EK here.... the safety culture there was disgusting to say the least! And when u ask for something to be clarified during recurrent and you are told later “I’ll have to mark you down for that due to lack of knowledge”, when trainees are asked if they would like to practice some more EFATOs at RTOW crosswind limits and the answer is universally “NO”... that’s a problem with the department! I learned a lot from my time at EK in spite of the training department, I learned from the incredibly experienced line skippers, past TRIs and TREs with a passion for imparting knowledge that couldn’t be bothered by the smothering politics and ridiculousness of the training department and management at EK to climb the ladder there anymore.

Again no argument the EK training department is tough, facilities are top notch but they were not in the business to “impart knowledge” or to “facilitate understanding”, if any of those things occurred it was deemed as a negative outcome.... sorry Sir that’s not a “training department” it’s a “checking department”.

[Maz11]

when trainees are asked if they would like to practice some more EFATOs at RTOW beyond right at crosswind limits and the answer is universally “NO”... that’s a problem with the department!

I’d say that’s more a problem with the individual who is being asked the question. And their perception based on reading things like that on here.

In my 5 years here I have come across 1 trainer I had an issue with. During the previous 15 years at my previous company I had at least 6.

Lot of my colleagues had issues with guys in the sim, took it upstairs and subsequently got the recourse they deserved. That sort of thing just doesn’t appear on forums like this, and hence the cycle continues.

If you can’t believe a trainer when he asks you that sort of question, having said ‘this is spare time and it’s simply for your benefit, no come back at all’, then you need to need to grow up a bit. On the odd occasion that might have happened where someone was marked down for such an event, just get them to pull the tapes. If you think they only record when the trainer presses the button you’re sadly mistaken.

There will always be bad eggs in any industry, but to tar everyone because of that simply isn’t fair.

[VThokie2]

There will always be bad eggs in any industry, but to tar everyone because of that simply isn’t fair.

If you saw my previous post I made sure to say there were many excellent TREs and TRIs there in my time which were stifled by the organization ... it was the training organization as a whole I was speaking to, guess you didn’t read that! And when the ORGANIZATION imbues that kind of widespread fear, that’s an organizational problem and it’s training management I’d directly fault (not any well meaning trainer) ... in point of fact I almost got yelled at by my sim partner for taking said extra EFATO! I have to say The chap that came over from Thomas Cook, MM did a whole lot of good trying to change it to a more modern system focused on the end user, the pilot... but he was fought every step of the way.

[krismiler]

It's encouraging to see that discussion has now moved onto the recovery and having sufficient numbers of pilots, rather than the doom and gloom of a few months ago. Next month will likely see the beginning of mass vaccination and a gradual resumption of air travel as restrictions are eased. Initially there will be a surge as pent up demand is released, after that it's the new normal whilst economies rebuild.

EK may have overshot the mark with A380 pilot redundancies, as unlike most other operators they don't have a smaller alternative once the B777 is fully committed. A detailed study of the required numbers needs to be undertaken and plans made in line with the anticipated pace and training capacity.

SQ are retaining the A380 and doing cabin refits, but will have a smaller fleet of them. Currently suites and first class have been pulled from the reservations system for the next year, this could change if demand returns but it shows an anticipated lack of demand for the super jumbo and most B777s.

CX recently cut pilot terms and conditions and are making minimum use of the B777 fleet, whilst postponing delivery of the X model.

EY are permanently downsizing and have told crews to move into cheaper accommodation.

QR looking at a further 30% cabin crew reduction, with flight crew likely to be similarly affected.

No one seems to be expecting an immediate bounce back, more of a gradual climb with the rate being anyone's guess at the moment. Ek management could take the opportunity for a CX style "take it or leave it" new contract offer. Talk up the A380 and all the pilots wanting to return as a way of making the B777 pilots agree, the unemployed A380 pilots wouldn't need persuading.

[WB1900]

Well I have seen de facto trainers who where wrong by the book (FCoM and Lido) and still management gave a rates ass to help
And yes EK had some outstanding trainers who are dedicated and motivated to make every single one a better pilot and yes it was the management who put them into those tiny boxes where they can’t move
EK wasn’t the company who trained anybody - it has always been those dedicated people in the flight deck to make a better job and improve their skills and knowledge - EK never appreciated or honored that kind of dedication
EK was for sure good - but how much better could they be if they would manage differently - and funny enough as greed as they are the never aimed for more and where satisfied with only good

[VThokie2]

WB1900

Precisely!

[5star]

Have you guys all forgotten about the ‘there is no fear in our Training Organization’ email we all got?
There were numerous line guys with good records suffering from fear/stress from hearing all the horror stories or having to perform in a box at 3am when your head didn’t know where it was from the brutal rosters...
That, with also the system where TREs were called in if they had a too high pass rate says it all I would think....
Or the story with the ‘non graded’ handling sims...need more?

During my 15 years, I saw traning getting better (when I started it was shockingly bad) to get indeed much better over time...However everyone could feel the rot setting in over the past 5 to 7 years.

There are some top trainers on board, many have left, but we all know that we didn’t want to do a less than optimal sim as that could open a can of worms....

It all starts at the top... Look at how much respect the crew get from the top....zero...well there you go...

[maples]

I read all yor posts with interest and sadness as aviation used to be more passion and fun than trying to stay employed sort of thing.
​​I have to disagree only on one little bit of all that, which is the role and responsibilities of the instructors in relation to the pilots community morale.
As a TRE or TRI, you are the one calling the shots,that is why you run sims and stuff, company pressure will be always try to interfere, it's inevitable.
I do not think that if you,as a trainer should accept your PH Training to cross the line in what is not related to your job such as " I want you to mark the guys down a little more ", if that happens you should simply bail out and go fly the line.
Anyways,it is tough s@#t however we look at it and it is not going to change for sure.

[fatbus]

Blame the training department again ,lol. Some people need to grow a pair .

[bluewhy]

They don't need to grow a pair. They just happen to be aware of the functions of serious training departments in other parts of the world. And what an open and no blame culture actually means.

[fatbus]

Mate , I'm not buying it . For as long as I can remember guys blamed the training department for their individual incompetence.

[WB1900]

so for yourself It would be ok that your best buddy gets the good guy on the NAC course and yourself to maintain in the right seat because u got the incompetent idiot without any support - than your last argument is ok
its not a blaming - unfortunately it ek reality
EK training looks very fancy with to building , all that online courses with this fancy graphics and presentations - but it’s like everything in Dubai - outside nice and shine and inside

EK training mentalit is „ we through a bunch of online courses at you asking for the exams afterwards and that’s it - yet alone a 3 hour sim packed to the amount that at the end not even know what’s the topic of the year, but yes we briefed it for 2 hours
fact is that airlines with a real training mentality still stayed with a concept that the ATA chapters must be fulfilled every 3 years and not we make a catalog of 150plus possible failures of all chapters plus to cover every single flight phase - and if you made out of the deepest :mad: the only comment was I don’t understand the way of your thinking that’s why I have to fail you - than something is severely wrong in the trainers and departments attitude towards training.
and I am not saying this concept of basically giving random failures is actually the worst as long as you have descent guys who use this concept to teach you certain things - but If you run in a :mad: you quite easily end up in deep :mad: - first of it luck, secondly very unproduktiv in terms of training - and yes it leaves everybody to blame the department because we all know how much better it could have been. EK training does not exist

[aussiefarmer]

fatbus

I'd hate to see this thread degenerate into a EK training dept. bashing - I believe that topic is beyond the scope of the discussion. I am still to read arguments that support why EK pilots are not amongst the best in the industry.

In any case, I think there were some interesting contributions regarding how and when the recovery will happen and reckon it would be great to bring back the discussion to the original topic.

[BANANASBANANAS]

One thing is for certain; EK is as keen and desperate as all of us redundant/unpaid leave pilots for the recovery to begin. When it does begin, EK imho, will try to lead the recovery rather than follow it and that is likely to mean that the bulk of any new job vacancies (for some time at least) will be in the Middle East. Probably on very average terms and conditions but those are the terms and conditions that the slowly recovering job market will allow. Legacy carriers in USA/EU will take pilots back off furlough and I think the freighter world will continue to be busy delivering vaccines around the world etc. But, notwithstanding all of the above, there are still going to be a lot of unemployed pilots for quite some time yet.

[VThokie2]

I am still to read arguments that support why EK pilots are not amongst the best in the industry.


If you read carefully none of us are saying that! EK pilots ARE among the best in the industry.... nothing has been said otherwise.

[transport jock]

yet alone a 3 hour sim packed

Is the EK sim session only 3 hours long?

[fatbus]

2 hour brief 3 hour Sim 45 min de brief , has been that way for a few years .

[Krone]

krismiler

Don't forget CX fired 550 Cathay Dragon Pilots and 2000 cabin crew with no prior notice, and then closed the airline.

The expat pilots dont even get an interline ticket home . A loverly touch .

[Airbubba]

In the United States if a major airline had the failure rates EK possessed the FAA would come and investigate the training department and/or recruiting department. At my current carrier I actually look forward to recurrent training because I get to brush up on my skills, see what’s being highlighted lately, ask some questions (without the resultant change at EK from a 4 to a 3 in the “knowledge” PAM) and when they ask “ya wanna do something extra” the answer is YES! That is a REAL training department, the same cannot be honestly said going into an EK recurrent!

We are truly blessed in the U.S. when it comes to training. And we've got the safety numbers to show for it compared to the numbers for the smaller amount of flying done by the rest of the world.

Sure, there will always be one or two idiots teaching in the schoolhouse but U.S. training is pretty much a low-threat scenario with a union card and the adjustment of standards to embrace non-traditional demographics. We're just a bunch of country boys and girls trying to earn a living. That pompous Sky-God stuff went out of fashion over the past three decades and was replaced by CRM and Kumbaya consensus building leadership. I can't remember hearing an American pilot (even a Deltoid ;)) brag about how well he or she flies the plane. Some do brag about how they got six weeks off for 120 hours of pay with conflict schedule bidding and a couple of weeks of vacation however.

I remember a QF crew bragging years ago that only half of their command course candidates made the upgrade on the first try. I was impressed (but not favorably).

Not that long ago a couple of now former EK pilots deigned to lecture me here on karma. I wish them nothing but the best in their future endeavors.

Rumor from a friend at United is that EK may be looking for 787 pilots for planes from some defunct airline. He's close to retirement but still gets frequent unsolicited emails from crewing agencies for expat jobs based on his listed type ratings.

[transport jock]

2 hour brief 3 hour Sim 45 min de brief , has been that way for a few years .

I wish our sim was that short.. We get 1:30 brief, 5 hour sim session and then a 30min debrief....

[The Turtle]

Airbubba
​​​​​​
THIS is how one grenades a off-topic rant.

Well done, Sir

[Sue Ridgepipe]

I think it's the oztranauts that always like to tell everyone else how good they are. Read some of the threads in the Fragrant Harbour forum and you'll find the CX drivers claim to be the best there is, likewise in the Oz forum the QF pilots will tell you the same.

[Xulu]

Border Openings
IATA says 4.5 billion passengers flew in 2019 from a population of 7.8 billion people. Does that mean over half the World flew last year? Of course not. (If you flew LHR to SIN to MEL return on EK, that would count as 6 flights in these stats.)

Whilst impossible to know for sure, calculated guesses work out just 7% of the Worlds population have flown. This leads to an estimation of ~550m individual people that fly a year. https://www.airspacemag.com/daily-planet/how-much-worlds-population-has-flown-airplane-180957719/

3 of the 11 vaccines in stage 3 trials have already declared success. Between just those initial 3 there are already 3.3bn doses that will be rolled out in 2021. And that's only accelerating through transfer of knoweldge. An example of which is Oxford recently licensing the technology to Thailand to set up and manufacture their own vaccine, with delivery happening within 6 months. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/thailand-joins-forces-with-astrazeneca-on-covid-19-vaccine-manufacturing--2

Not to mention the other 8 vaccines in advanced stages that will also add to this number of potential doses.

So with just the initially planned 3.3 billion doses, that is already enough for 1.65 billion people. And while manufacturers have signed up to COVAX, an initiative to distribute vaccines to poor countries, the vast majority of this initial run will go to Western economies and their combined 1bn population.

Therefore I think it's realistic to expect borders to be open in 2022, and importantly the relatively few people that could afford to travel on planes in 2019, will be vaccinated and fit to fly.


Passenger Demand
Again focussing on those who are rich enough to travel, Governments are gearing up huge stimulus packages. Debt is being written off, money printed, tax delayed, loans extended and jobs protected. The travel and hospitality industry will be offering huge discounts, and incentives to recapture lost business. Everything from Airlines to Car rentals. https://simpleflying.com/ryanair-ceo-summer-2020-demand/

And with a shift to tech companies and digital services, many pension funds and investments have bounced back.

Airlines reporting massive underlying demand for travel as restrictions have come and gone. https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-easyjet-reports-200-rise-in-flight-searches-as-rules-eased-for-christmas-12142709

Speaking of which, do you think Emirates and Dubai will cautiously sit and watch Qatar ramp up and take all the traffic through Doha? Or Singapore/Cathay/Turkish?

I'm pretty sure flight capacity will be there. Just not profits. And capacity will take pilots.
Now Emirates has signed up to be a distributer of the vaccine over the next couple years. These flight will take away from potential passenger flights. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/15/emirates-working-with-pfizer-others-on-vaccine-transport-challenge-.html


Recruitment
2021 is a write off for international travel. Initially I expected a return to flying in 2023, but 2022 is now looking like we'll see a strong recovery in demand. Business travel will take a hit for sure and be slow to recover. But I also anticipate more economy travellers wanting to fly business for that social distance and peace of mind. Crucially, I fully expect the airlines will be flying and competing in 2022, fuelled by subsidies, discounts, hotel partners and travel agent deals.

We should also recognise that unlike most carriers, a significant percentage of EK business class travel is from wealthy expats, and locals. Both groups will continue to fly.

Airlines, as always, will underestimate just how long it takes to get people back on line, and greedily try to squeeze remaining workforce as much as possible. With the 777 busy flying cargo and vaccine distribution - the only way to ramp up passenger ops in 2022 will be through recruitment or callbacks. This process will have to start within a year to have any chance of success. With the UPL guys, they only have enough to operate ~40 a380s from the 125. As an expat airline, it takes longer than usual to recruit people.

Now a question to ask yourself is: What kind of management outlook is there at Emirates? Optimistic and opportunistic - or careful and cautious?

As I said previously, if EK were smart, next year they would get a headstart on things by getting pilots back onto an UPL status to replace those called to line - process visas, medical, induction, uniform etc. Get the trainers current again and a short rejoiner course approved by GCAA.

All this to say, chin up fellas. It's coming, and the World will need your skills and experience again.

[BANANASBANANAS]

A nice, positive post and not unrealistic. Fingers crossed.

[glofish]

Xulu

As much as i would like all this to come true, i guess it looks somewhat optimistic. We love optimistic outlooks, but when i read your statement ...

As I said previously, if EK were smart, next year they would get a headstart on things by getting pilots back onto an UPL status to replace those called to line - process visas, medical, induction, uniform etc. Get the trainers current again and a short rejoiner course approved by GCAA.

... I really can't see too many pilots coming back into an UPL, especially not those with families. After the experience of this year, the trust in EK is no longer there. Even as many say, a lot will do anything to get bread on the table, UPL does not really do that and relocating again works almost only for singles.

There are other forecasts that are somewhat less optimistic and frankly, if it was to go back to the ME, I'd consider them as much as putting my hopes on yours.

https://www.eurocontrol.int/publication/eurocontrol-five-year-forecast-2020-2024

Just an excerpt:
​​​​​​“Even in the most positive scenario, we do not expect a recovery to 2019 levels before 2024. There is a very real prospect that this recovery could take even longer, perhaps to as far out as 2029. This is a catastrophic picture for the aviation industry and shows clearly why it is so important for States to take consistent and coherent measures to support the aviation industry and make passengers feel safe to fly again.”

and:

"The forecast is based on three headline scenarios,

Scenario 1 – Vaccine Summer 2021
Vaccine widely made available for travellers (or end of pandemic) by Summer 2021, with traffic only returning to 2019 levels by 2024.
Scenario 2 – Vaccine Summer 2022
Vaccine widely made available for travellers (or end of pandemic) by Summer 2022, with traffic only returning to 2019 levels by 2026.
Scenario 3 – Vaccine not effective
Lingering infection and low passenger confidence, with traffic only returning to 2019 levels by 2029."

[Fuel-Off]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-britain-vaccine/uk-approves-pfizer-biontech-vaccine-for-use-first-in-the-world-idUSKBN28C0OW

Following on from the previous post, the UK has just approved the Pfizer vaccine. Some good news finally! Now comes the big sell to the wider community to get themselves inoculated.

[3Greens]

yes that’s correct, in fact; the first vaccines will be going into arms next Monday. Amazing.

[Xulu]

Thanks Glofish. I think saying 2029 is just absolute nonsense and scaremongering.

Please understand, many of those earlier doomsday predictions are positioned purely to either:

a) get state aid; or
b) pressure unions to make concessions; or
c) justify shareholder dilution.

Those particular predictions come from euro control; Look at the history of EU ATC strikes to see who the target audience is, and the motivation behind it.

The fact is there are 3 vaccines going into distribution before Christmas. The market didn't crash. The demand for travel is there. The entire travel industry will be working together to stimulate recovery.

[glofish]

Xulu

No doubt, but consider that the other outlooks might also have an agenda.

I simply wanted to inject another side of the story, because you mentioned an eventual callback into UPL. This would represent a renewed shoving down of risk to employees. Houses are empty, training capacity is unused, meaning only little cost to the employer and building reserves therefore very handy. You mentioned yourself that "if EK were smart" ........ so there is their agenda!

With all the wishes of a speedy recovery and urge to get back on the earning track, we should simply stay vigilant and not get caught in a one sided risk game.

[skyvan]

I think Xulu has it pretty much sorted.
If Emirates was to go to 2019 levels, that will mean recruiting another 1000-1500 pilots in 3 years. But they don't need to. Not all the A380s are coming back, some B777s are still leaving, and the B777X are delayed. The 787s are inbound, so that will need pilots, just not Airbus pilots.
In the short term, I would expect as many guys on UPL who will come back, will be back by mid year. After that, recruitment and upgrades will continue as the company sees the need.
As much as I dislike and distrust certain management, by and large they have done what is needed to keep the company safe, so they are not idiots. And the recovery will be managed with the same ethos in mind, looking after the company.

[WB1900]

unfortunately you and Xulu have a quite realistic pictures and EK has done what they needed - nevertheless about 50% of the pilots having lost everything with no chance of return
well done of EK to have left behind so much drama with no respect to the humans

[shukran]

Lol, this is definitely great for morale:

https://www.paddleyourownkanoo.com/2020/12/17/emirates-tells-cabin-crew-to-work-for-free-in-latest-cost-cutting-move/

[olster]

On LinkedIn every now and then there is some great announcement that Emirates is starting up routes or beating the pandemic. Even Cranfield University awarded one of the leading protagonists in the cull of operational staff recently I kid you not some prize for their overall brilliance. There then follows an outpouring of sycophancy from who knows about how brilliant and wonderful EK is. If you ever read the dreaded Daily Mail in the uk, one of the columnists - Richard Littlejohn - has a nifty catchphrase ‘you really could not make this stuff up’ which surely applies here. Interestingly and unsurprisingly I have never seen a pilot or cabin crew contribute to this mass @rse licking. Proving that even in the worst of times dark comedy is lurking.

[Neektu]

LinkedIn is full of people with inflated résumés and praising one another.

[fatbus]

And praising EK for the wonderful opportunity! Sickening when you think of it .

[booze]

Also check out the two ex-EK (now WZZ spin doctors) manager's posts. A*skissing level 99 throughout the spectrum: ex-EK crew hoping for a job at WZZ as well as current WZZ hoping to keep their jobs...

[jadrolinija]

Exactly what I wanted to mention... Same things that happened in EK and QR happened in Wizz. It's not hard to guess who stands behind all redundancies criterias idea.

[Un_Limited]

olster

Cranfield as any other University can praise, award and honour any high level official (let alone graduate) likely to be in charge of future decision making regarding monetary policies that may extend to training, marketing, infrastructure usage and or funding of research products (currently involved in one). Just for clarity the manager mentioned was not the only one being awarded that day and in my view a very well deserved award for all stakeholders. As an ex-ek bus driver recently laid off I support this as it may help create valuable aerospace jobs in the future that are usually anti-recessionary. You should try and blend into the mindset, It helps to suppress all that justified frustration

[troff]

380’s cannot be stored away. They need to be attended to constantly, like cycling the gear once a month. Once they are “stored”, that’s it.

[fatbus]

Totally incorrect!

[Dropp the Pilot]

"Once they are “stored”, that’s it"

You've got that the wrong way around. For those who wish to operate a profitable airline the facts indicate that "once they are flying, that's it".

[LongLander]

If they are stored, I'd suggest once you cycle the gear, "that's it."

[krismiler]

There are procedures for storing aircraft which become more numerous as the time on the ground lengthens. For a short term grounding, towing the aircraft a short distance to exercise the oleos may be required and as the time increases, jacking the aircraft up to cycle the landing gear at specified intervals is needed. Engine runs, exercising the flight controls and operating the systems comes into play.

The manufacturers have laid down what needs to be done and it becomes more complicated and expensive as time extends.

[Muttley Crew]

Shouldn't be a problem, A380 operators are well used to that after a few years of ownership.

[WB1900]

krismiler

there are two basic long term storage procedures
1- you cover it , close everything and every now and than you tow it - engine runs and move surfaces eventual you have to fly it a bit
2- everything gets drained - all oils all water - it will be stone dry - tires are a write of, this is ultimate long term storage and needs a large inspection to get back in service 2-3 month time before the aircraft moves with power and needs also ground runs and a test flight
beside parking it’s a expensive way of keeping it

[glofish]

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/720x405/380_3_e8d0cbd3dfb2069d7b8f8131ff2aa021e1f72b36.jpg


Cheapest way of storing it

[olster]

Un_Limited

Cranfield University like many self regarding academic establishments in the UK can award any useless gongs they like to whoever they like. The fact remains the odious individual they awarded it to had a deliberately adversarial relationship with the flight crew. The mass sackings that ensued may have been economically necessary but were carried out in a brutal and inhuman manner that resonates with the prize winning management style we had become used to. A very well deserved award for (management buzzword alert) ‘stakeholders’ makes no sense on any level unless it is an attempt at irony. I left EK years ago so I have no frustration to vent but I am deeply sorry for all the former colleagues that have been affected.

[Un_Limited]

I like the fact that you pretend to care about us lot who lost our jobs but the sad fact is YOU don’t. I believe there is a term for you lot - the post crisis 30 sec fame wannabes. You got your 30 sec of fame (pretending to care) in a rumor network (thinking that everything is about EK), move along now, move along!

[olster]

Unlimited: all I will say to you is that you couldn’t be more wrong. I have friends who lost their jobs @ EK who I have every sympathy for. In classic internet fashion you have misunderstood my original post. There is no fame attached to posting on pprune,

[fatbus]

I concur with Olster .

[Un_Limited]

Merry Christmas everyone. No harm done! Merry Christmas

[olster]

Same to you.

[Xulu]

Is it true? Are the great unwashed (a380) going to be called back to duty this summer? Unlikely to be that fast but things are looking up.

Whilst we can argue about the timing, the global vaccination programme has been an unquestionable success. It puts all the doomsday scenarios back under the bed.

Back in April/May - the Airlines simply had no idea if it would take years to discover a working vaccine, if ever, and were forced to make deep cuts to protect the business. Now, that's all changed; There is some certainty coming to ops and with it plans can be put in motion.

At last count, almost 10 billion doses are being produced next year; A figure that's only rising. That's enough to get the worlds frequent flyers, and everyone vulnerable vaccinated. With access to multiple types of vaccines, the chances of long term protection increase. The Oxford vaccine is cheap and can be stored at room temperature for weeks, enabling wide distribution.

Still, I can imagine many cautious states maintaining border closure until Q4 2021. But with growing criticism, welfare and frustration - Governments will surely have to lift restrictions or face pitchforks.

In UAE, already two different vaccines have had initial roll outs. That'll soon enough be a good chunk of EK's local/expat traffic eligible, and it paves the way to further travel corridors, and becoming a safe haven for tourists. The UK corridor, for example, was a huge success.

In any case

The word is, front-line staff are coming back sooner or later. Lot's of unpaid leave pilots have already been rostered training to get back to line. The question is, how many of the discarded will come back?

The answer: Most.

But the ME3 have a looming Captain squeeze.

Those with large enough PF to retire early are Captains.

The ones too old or sick to come back are Captains.

Those with contracting opportunities elsewhere are Captains.

Those going into TRE or management ground jobs are Captains.

Those with kids in important later school years are Captains.

The FOs working as amazon delivery drivers? Yeah they'll all be back in a flash.

The balance will be something like 95% of FOs : 75% of Captains will come back. With Captains already in shorter numbers, it's bums on CM1 seats that I predict to limit the number of a380s able to fly again.

And the sheer volume of rejoiners needing to be retrained to line will likely prohibit any command upgrade courses for a couple years.

The longer they wait to invite people back, or at least get them in the system - the higher the number taking opportunities/careers change/retirement/settling elsewhere. And the numbers needing a longer TTC, type rating, or command course will increase. Not a good place to be in.

This process must be complete within 18 months so they can get a semblance of normality and spare capacity to be able to train newcomers or new Captains.

Majority of leavers have license and medical expiry in July-October. That will be worth keeping on top of for Flight Ops, far more than trying to perfectly time the industry pick up. Don't be surprised if your 'interview' sim, is also your revalidation.

The vaccine will be here. Borders will open. Quarantines/Masks will ease. People will be flying. And the ME3 will need pilots.

Merry Xmas

[bluewhy]

Don't forget about those who will have realised by now that dignity doesn't have a price.

Those won't come back either.

[fatbus]

As much as I would like to see my mates get back flying , I wouldn't hold my breath . Vaccine is one thing but economic recovery ( disposal income) might be slow . Have a look at Phuket , some reports is it may never bouch back ! You have to remember the the ME3 are hub and spoke . They need volume . 85-90% transit. The world does not want to visit Dubai!