14 day quarantine

[Flying Hi]

Nurse Practitioners you mean. Highly qualified. A lot more so that your meaningless comment. Lockdown here has been an absolute joke, thats why our infection rates are still way higher than it should be. Why is that?
Try - a governent that sees deaths as collateral damage against doing anything that might upset the voting public
And a voting public whose real concern is when they are opening and their 'freedom' to walk about willy nilly and infect whoever they like.
The Gov meanwhile will then wait until Cummins tells the PM what he is to do next.

[Plastic787]

Nurse Practitioners you mean. Highly qualified. A lot more so that your meaningless comment. Lockdown here has been an absolute joke, thats why our infection rates are still way higher than it should be. Why is that?

Doesn’t change the fact that the statistics showing deaths have been reporting Covid-19 effectively as the sole cause of death when there have been multiple comorbidities. That’s bordering on the fraudulent.

[ShotOne]

“ The death rate is lower abroad...” er, yes, HiFly Exactly. So what possible logic is there in imposing quarantine on people arriving from places where the incidence of infections is much much lower than U.K.?

[Cat Techie]

Doesn’t change the fact that the statistics showing deaths have been reporting Covid-19 effectively as the sole cause of death when there have been multiple comorbidities. That’s bordering on the fraudulent.
It is not the sole cause of death. Covid 19 rarely is. However it is the reason that tips the balance if one is weak in anyway. People that would be living with whatever they have had are dying. Because Covid 19 is the primary reason why they died with their underlying conditions. People I know have died whom would have lived for another 20 years without catching this super cold. Mates of mine that were under 70. Died because they had to go to the shops and face the idiots walking about Britains streets, young and old. Our death rates are huge compared to the rest of Europe at the minute. And we had advanced warning to avoid it. Alas the lunatics are running the country.

[PilotLZ]

“ The death rate is lower abroad...” er, yes, HiFly Exactly. So what possible logic is there in imposing quarantine on people arriving from places where the incidence of infections is much much lower than U.K.?
It's pure political logic. On that other end, where infection figures are far lower than in the UK, arrivals from the UK will likely be subject to quarantine. So, the UK is taking a reciprocal approach, as is the common practice in international diplomacy. Although in many cases, including this one, imposing unpopular measures purely on the principle of reciprocity is like getting shot in the leg and shooting yourself in the other one right after, said measures will likely remain in force until other countries demonstrate readiness to admit arrivals from the UK without quarantine. Which, in turn, is subject to taming the plague within the UK.

[ShotOne]

That’s simply not true; there was nothing reciprocal about this. Although other states (starting with France) undoubtedly will in due course

[blind pew]

A friend lost his son and battled the coroner over the declaration that his son died from covid, as without an autopsy it was a false declaration. Eventually he was authorised at his own considerable expense to have the body transported to a facility that determined the cause of death to be not covid.
The son had had an earlier serious health problem but was advised by 111 to isolate at home whereas he should have gone to A&E which might have saved his life.
It would seem that it is an easy cop out to write covid on the death certificate as it saves the hassle of an investigation into a sudden death from unknown causes.
My point is that we do not have the full information as to the actual Covid deaths or those which have been caused by the procedures put in place because of the epidemic. All we have in the end are the total death toll in comparison with previous years.

[Plastic787]

Our death rates are huge compared to the rest of Europe at the minute. And we had advanced warning to avoid it.

Spain has a higher death rate per head of population, you know the country that’s opening its borders right now? We’re also broadly in line with Italy. (And that’s even using the official government figures, the same ones it has been shown are distorted by misreporting deaths). Please don’t make statements that aren’t in line with the actual facts, that’s one reason we’re in the mess we are right now.

[Radgirl]

Hell in the U.K. they’ve even been allowing nurses to diagnose the cause of death and subsequently to fill in death certificates FFS! The statistics in the U.K. are absolutely meaningless and corrupted beyond belief because of this.

In the UK a nurse practitioner can determine death but a death certificate can only be signed by a medical practitioner.

Every country's statistics will have errors. The only true number is corrected excess deaths. But the relative true numbers are irrelevant to quarantine. Quarantine is purely about preventing new cases coming into the UK. So the only safe countries we could exempt are....New Zealand! but you cant get to LHR non stop..... The politicians may decide they want to allow a certain number of cases in balanced against economic loss but medically quarantine is justified especially in light of the current fiasco over SERCO

We also know that SAGE considered travel restrictions by 3 February. Had they acted, again as New Zealand did, tens of thousands of UK citizens might still be alive and we may well have been returning to normal and discussing opening not closing our borders and getting airlines back in business.

[liider]

Spain has a higher death rate per head of population, you know the country that’s opening its borders right now? We’re also broadly in line with Italy. (And that’s even using the official government figures, the same ones it has been shown are distorted by misreporting deaths). Please don’t make statements that aren’t in line with the actual facts, that’s one reason we’re in the mess we are right now.

Spain is planning to open borders on the 1st JULY, they are still in national lockdown till 21st June.

[cats_five]

Had the government instituted lockdown just a week earlier a substantial number of lives would have been saved, and most of the economy would have suffered far less. But they didn't. They asked us to do social distancing instead of telling us. The telling happened on the 23rd March.

[Plastic787]

Spain is planning to open borders on the 1st JULY, they are still in national lockdown till 21st June.

Pedant alert.

[Flying Hi]

Pedant alert.
No - very valid IMO.
Smacks of "forget the danger, show me the money."

[ATNotts]

Spain has a higher death rate per head of population, you know the country that’s opening its borders right now? We’re also broadly in line with Italy. (And that’s even using the official government figures, the same ones it has been shown are distorted by misreporting deaths). Please don’t make statements that aren’t in line with the actual facts, that’s one reason we’re in the mess we are right now.

Whatever the facts about death rates, they are largely irrelevant to the question of whether or not to open up. The dead reflect what happened 2, 3, 4 perhaps more weeks ago. What is important today is new infection rates, and irrespective of what Spain, Greece or Italy are doing, the UK rates of new infections is far too high, and those countries ought not to be considering letting UK visitors arrive without quarantine unless and until the UK gets the epidemic under control, and new infections down to the hundreds, not thousands.

[Flying Hi]

Whatever the facts about death rates, they are largely irrelevant to the question of whether or not to open up. The dead reflect what happened 2, 3, 4 perhaps more weeks ago. What is important today is new infection rates, and irrespective of what Spain, Greece or Italy are doing, the UK rates of new infections is far too high, and those countries ought not to be considering letting UK visitors arrive without quarantine unless and until the UK gets the epidemic under control, and new infections down to the hundreds, not thousands.
For that we need a Gov that hasn't been told by his "Advisor' to throw the towel in on reducing the deaths but get that godamned money rolling in again.

[Jet II]

Whatever the facts about death rates, they are largely irrelevant to the question of whether or not to open up. The dead reflect what happened 2, 3, 4 perhaps more weeks ago. What is important today is new infection rates, and irrespective of what Spain, Greece or Italy are doing, the UK rates of new infections is far too high, and those countries ought not to be considering letting UK visitors arrive without quarantine unless and until the UK gets the epidemic under control, and new infections down to the hundreds, not thousands.


Surely that is a decision for those countries. If their politicians and scientific advisers feel it is safe who are we to tell them otherwise?

[ATNotts]

Surely that is a decision for those countries. If their politicians and scientific advisers feel it is safe who are we to tell them otherwise?

Surely it's their decision, but sitting where they are, having in many cases put their own people through draconian restrictions, would you risk all by letting in visitors from countries that haven't, such as the UK, and more especially Sweden? Unless of course, in their judgement the tourist economy trumps public health. Their populations would judge them harshly if they got the call wrong.

[Bidule]

Pedant alert.

No
Moreover, there is a 14-day quarantine in force until the end of June.

.

[Plastic787]

No
Moreover, there is a 14-day quarantine in force until the end of June.

.

OK fine. Would you have been happier if I’d written in the process of opening borders right now? Seeing as that’s clearly what I meant I stand by the comment about pedantry. Strawman tactics at their best, bravo.

The fact remains that, despite hysterical assertions on this forum that the U.K. is the hotbed of Covid-19 in Europe, in actual fact Spain has the highest numbers of deaths per capita and is proposing opening borders imminently. Address that please rather than attacking the straw man.

[SMT Member]

OK fine. Would you have been happier if I’d written in the process of opening borders right now? Seeing as that’s clearly what I meant I stand by the comment about pedantry. Strawman tactics at their best, bravo.

The fact remains that, despite hysterical assertions on this forum that the U.K. is the hotbed of Covid-19 in Europe, in actual fact Spain has the highest numbers of deaths per capita and is proposing opening borders imminently. Address that please rather than attacking the straw man.

It's been pointed out just a few post above your, that death rates are largely meaningless - it's the rate of new infections that's important. And where e.g. Germany (c. 400) Italy (ca. 500), France (ca. 100) and Spain (ca. 300) seemingly are getting the spread under control, the UK is at around 2000.

PS
87,9% (!) of all Covid-19 deaths have been 70+ years old, and usually suffering from one or more chronic diseases. Thus, the prudent and logical approach would have been to lock that age group down whilst allowing the rest of society to continue more or less as per normal. Why that hasn't been done is one of the great mysteries of how this has been handled.

[Maninthebar]

OK fine. Would you have been happier if I’d written in the process of opening borders right now? Seeing as that’s clearly what I meant I stand by the comment about pedantry. Strawman tactics at their best, bravo.

The fact remains that, despite hysterical assertions on this forum that the U.K. is the hotbed of Covid-19 in Europe, in actual fact Spain has the highest numbers of deaths per capita and is proposing opening borders imminently. Address that please rather than attacking the straw man.

The total death figure, while terribly sad, in not relevant to decisions being taken currently. The daily death rates could be and for that, yes, Spain is running at a lower, significantly lower rate per capita than the UK, has been for a while. If you then chose to say that deaths are a lagging indicator, which we would all agree with, then perhaps look at daily infection detection. Here, too, the UK is running at a significantly higher number, per capita, than Spain.

On the basis of CURRENT figures the statement that the UK is the worst affected in Europe stands up.

And yet we are walking slowly away from lockdown. All, even the Foreign Secretary this morning, agree that this is a very delicate moment and many of the scientists who have been involved in the decision making process have described the steps taken as risky. Clearly we rightly delegate these decisions to our politicians - it is their job. Nor am i pretending that it is wrong to take public health decisions separately from economic ones - they have to be linked in some way. I hope this gamble pays off. But it IS a gamble presently

[Maninthebar]

It's been pointed out just a few post above your, that death rates are largely meaningless - it's the rate of new infections that's important. And where e.g. Germany (c. 400) Italy (ca. 500), France (ca. 100) and Spain (ca. 300) seemingly are getting the spread under control, the UK is at around 2000.

PS
87,9% (!) of all Covid-19 deaths have been 70+ years old, and usually suffering from one or more chronic diseases. Thus, the prudent and logical approach would have been to lock that age group down whilst allowing the rest of society to continue more or less as per normal. Why that hasn't been done is one of the great mysteries of how this has been handled.

Errrm so >12% of deaths UNDER THE CURRENT ARRANGEMENTS have been of folk <70 - do you not think this would rise? It's not the death rate that is controlled by lockdown but the rate of infection. Your suggestion would spread the disease far faster amongst the freely roaming population, thus ramping up the numbers of dead. Also in passing, removing from the population vast numbers of workers who become ill but do not die, thus having the dire economic effect that you are seeking to avoid.

[Raikum]

[QUOTE=SMT Member;10798415]It's been pointed out just a few post above your, that death rates are largely meaningless - it's the rate of new infections that's important. And where e.g. Germany (c. 400) Italy (ca. 500), France (ca. 100) and Spain (ca. 300) seemingly are getting the spread under control, the UK is at around 2000.

No its far worse....the UK daily infection rate is currently 8,000. How is this possible? I can only assume that there are areas where CV is highly prevelent where people are simply saying 'Dominic Cummings'

[jvr]

Errrm so >12% of deaths UNDER THE CURRENT ARRANGEMENTS have been of folk <70 - do you not think this would rise? It's not the death rate that is controlled by lockdown but the rate of infection. Your suggestion would spread the disease far faster amongst the freely roaming population, thus ramping up the numbers of dead. Also in passing, removing from the population vast numbers of workers who become ill but do not die, thus having the dire economic effect that you are seeking to avoid.

you do realise that with the difference in mortality between the over 70's and the under 70's, there would be way fewer deaths if all the below 70's would catch it, ensuring that nobody in the above 70's would catch it?

[GS-Alpha]

there would be way fewer deaths if all the below 70's would catch it, ensuring that nobody in the above 70's would catch it?
You write that as if it were a known fact. It is not.

[Flying Hi]

You write that as if it were a known fact. It is not.
Here comes the herd theory again.
From what I can see the 70+s ARE still keeping somewhat isolated and its the younger generations that 'want to be together'. (1991 Prudential TV advert)

[Jet II]

Here comes the herd theory again.
From what I can see the 70+s ARE still keeping somewhat isolated and its the younger generations that 'want to be together'. (1991 Prudential TV advert)


Which is what we all want isn't it? The young who are less threatened by the virus to go about their lives, go to the pub, get back to school, work etc - and those who are at most risk (the old, obese, those with underlying conditions etc) stay isolated.

I know several people who have had Covid19 - all were under 60 and fairly fit. Not one of them needed a day off work as the symptoms were so slight and a couple of them didnt even realise they had had it. Telling them to stay isolated instead of allowing them to resume normal life is not going to save tens of thousands of jobs in the economy.

[Maninthebar]

Which is what we all want isn't it? The young who are less threatened by the virus to go about their lives, go to the pub, get back to school, work etc - and those who are at most risk (the old, obese, those with underlying conditions etc) stay isolated.

I know several people who have had Covid19 - all were under 60 and fairly fit. Not one of them needed a day off work as the symptoms were so slight and a couple of them didnt even realise they had had it. Telling them to stay isolated instead of allowing them to resume normal life is not going to save tens of thousands of jobs in the economy.


...and I know...... (actually I do, early 40s mother of 2, off her feet for 10 days). Also we know Dominic and Boris.... but enough of that anecdotal evidence.

You may want to ask yourself why no other jurisdiction has gone down your suggested route. You might also want to read the minutes of SAGE meetings from January onwards in which questions such as yours were considered.

[Jet II]

...and I know...... (actually I do, early 40s mother of 2, off her feet for 10 days). Also we know Dominic and Boris.... but enough of that anecdotal evidence.

You may want to ask yourself why no other jurisdiction has gone down your suggested route. You might also want to read the minutes of SAGE meetings from January onwards in which questions such as yours were considered.

Dom had very slight symptoms and Boris was obese, a known cause of Covid19 mortality. Which is actually what I pointed out.

My problem with the advice from SAGE, is that SAGE contains nobody who is an economist or even looking at the economic consequences of their decisions and it also contained nobody who was in any danger of becoming unemployed by their decisions. Now you can argue that the Government should have been weighing those issues with the advice from SAGE but the political reality is that if SAGE had put forward a recommendation no Government was going to go against that recommendation as the political cost in not 'following the science' would have been too high.

So we are where we are with unemployment going back to 1930's levels and all the misery and death that brings with it.

[Maninthebar]

Dom's lips turned blue (allegedly, evidence from spouse)

SAGE is tasked with giving scientific advice, it is true. Reading the minutes is a sobering experience - on March 3rd and 5th SAGE concluded that there was no useful purpose to be served by cancelling mass events, on March 10th SAGE concluded that the evidence of a benefit of such a cancellation was marginal. Cheltenham festival started on March 10th and is now widely seen as a significant occasion of cross infection.

SAGE did consider mental health effects (and the risk, incidentally, of social unrest - they concluded that we are a docile lot :-) )

If you are not prepared to read and consider the Minutes of these meetings then I do recommend that you consider why the course of action you propose has not been adopted elsewhere on the planet. Surely if it is obvious to you......

[PilotLZ]

https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/news/uk/air-bridges-between-uk-and-low-risk-countries-could-be-introduced-at-end-of-june/

Looks like it's not completely beyond hope. Depends on how the negotiations with the receiving end go though.

[Livesinafield]

No its far worse....the UK daily infection rate is currently 8,000

Not sure where you got that from? DM? sky news? The UK has been hovering around 1500-2000 new infections a day and is on a huge decline like most other countries that have had their peak, 1st June was the lowest since around 23rd march. We all know them figures are not very accurate because its based on a tiny percentage anyway, however its still valid as a general guide of increases and decreases. We all know there is very good research that puts the UK total cases at 17-19 million infections since the start, at the start of April NHS England estimated at least 1 Million people in London had already contracted it, and world figures around the 220-250 million mark

This thing is as contagious as a common cold and we did nothing for months you really think its only hit 6.5 million people?

We should be protecting the vulnerable and shielding them as best as possible while the fit and healthy get to work before we all end up in poverty

[Flying Hi]

Not sure where you got that from? - - - - The UK has been hovering around 1500-2000 new infections a day - -
Not sure where you got that from?

[Livesinafield]

Official testing results published from the UK government each day ?.... 1653 New cases today...1570 Yesterday

[Flying Hi]

Would love to know how so many people every day have managed to infect themselves in a Lockdown. NHS and Key workers removed from stats of course.
Or is that the elephant in the room?

[Livesinafield]

The official figures are one thing actual figures are totally different we all know there are millions and millions more cases than we know, but as long as the official figure decreases from testing then we are getting to a better place

[Flying Hi]

In other words, we have no idea.

[Livesinafield]

Well I guess so yes, the level of deaths is decreasing in the UK which is a good sign, another issue is there are so many people 98% or more that have such mild conditions they are never tested, but are still passing it on

[Bidule]

Official testing results published from the UK government each day ?.... 1653 New cases today...1570 Yesterday

So, this number has no value. How many tests a day?
It would only be possible to know the new cases each day if the whole population was tested every day.

.

[Livesinafield]

Yes exactly, but we can't test the whole pop every day so can only go on what you test, and the numbers of infections from tests are decreasing and so are the deaths and hospital admissions

[homonculus]

We could test a random proportion daily, but the government is being devious with its numbers. It is including antibody tests and reference numbers in its capability, sending out batches unasked etc etc, and then includes NHS workers. It is likely they dont have the capacity to do a scientific random survey despite their protestations.

The ONS has a better handle on the number of deaths based on death certificates and as we know the death rate we can work back to give number of cases although there is a fiddle factor because deaths occur from day 7 to 60

At the peak we thought the total infections was 7 times the reported numbers. Now we think it is more like 4 times. So true infections in the UK probably 6000-7000 a day. A couple of papers suggest possibly 60-70% of people who are infected get NO symptoms.

Excess deaths however from Covid 19 in the mid 60,000s and when we add those who will die prematurely from delayed cancer and cardiac treatment we will be well over 100,000

[infrequentflyer789]

Yes exactly, but we can't test the whole pop every day so can only go on what you test, and the numbers of infections from tests are decreasing and so are the deaths and hospital admissions

The UK daily positive-test numbers are admittedly of little use as they keep changing the criteria for testing.

However, there is now a population-sample testing scheme that helps us understand epidemic progress, the ONS has reports e.g. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/28may2020

The result is: the infection rate is currently stable. Not declining, stable. Now, stable isn't bad given that we will be seeing the first effects of the early easings of lockdown coming through now, but it isn't good either - because it isn't declining, and as lockdown is eased further, it may start to go up again.

So why are deaths and hospital admissions falling? - because these indicators lag infection by at least 2 weeks (more like 4 for deaths). If, as the ONS says, we are getting around 50k per week new infections, we will probably see (as our death rate is somewhere 1-2%, probably nearer 1%) around 750 deaths per week in a few weeks time. We aren't down to that level yet, so we should expect it to decrease until it plateaus out around 100 per day. If ONS report is correct.

Some are saying deaths will be zero by July, as far as I can see they are just extrapolating the current trend down. Unless the ONS is very wrong we won't be seeing that - if we were going to then we'd be seeing new infections falling to zero now, whereas ONS says they aren't falling at all.

[infrequentflyer789]

We could test a random proportion daily, but the government is being devious with its numbers. It is including antibody tests and reference numbers in its capability, sending out batches unasked etc etc, and then includes NHS workers. It is likely they dont have the capacity to do a scientific random survey despite their protestations.

Well ONS claims they've been doing one since April - which is exactly where the 8000-a-day estimates are coming from.

If they'd put more effort into that rather than the pointless pandering to public opinion 100000-a-day target, then we'd have had better data sooner - but public opinion was that "test test test" was most important. Testing of course is useless (actually worse than, as any testing process has risks in itself) unless you are going to do something with the result, and mostly we've just been doing nothing and testing for the sake of testing. Only very recently (outside the random survey) have we started testing the asymptomatic, where you can do something positive - isolation - with a positive test, testing symptomatic who aren't bad enough to need hospital treatment is pointless - they should be isolating anyway, false -ve rate is too high to un-isolate.

[Douglas Bahada]

MOL speaking sense again.

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain does not have a proper plan for its 14-day international quarantine and the introduction of such a “useless and ineffective” scheme will do untold damage to the country’s tourism industry, the head of Ryanair (RYA.I (https://uk.reuters.com/companies/RYA.I)) said on Thursday.

Britain is due to introduce a 14-day quarantine for international arrivals from June 8 to prevent a second surge in the coronavirus pandemic.

“You don’t have a quarantine, people are going to be allowed to come in next week through Heathrow and Gatwick, they then get on the London Underground, the trains, the busses, the taxis, to get to their destination. They can stop off at the supermarket, they can play a round of golf,” Michael O’Leary told BBC TV.

“This is going to do untold damage to British tourism, the thousands of hotels and restaurants and guest houses all over the UK that depend on European visitors will be deterred by this useless and ineffective quarantine.”

[Flying Hi]

So, History will note that the SecondWave arrived by air from June 8th, welcomed by the Government who created a meaningless and unenforceable non-quarantine.

[vikingivesterled]

O'Leary has his own agenda but if nobody would do any measure that isn't 100% effective we know now that the health service would be overrun and instead of the 10% of CoVid19 patients dying that needs it, it would be 20 or 30%. Quarantine depends on that the sensible 80% of the population follows it. The last 20% there is little we can do with except locking them up for the duration of the pandemic. Most effective way of policing the rest is naming and shaming they who brake it, like Cummings. If Ireland has a 14 day quarantine and O'Leary travels abroad and is swanning around on the golf course when he comes back, hang him in the press. Then hopefully most will stop following his advice on most matters, and others like him.

The best way for the airline industry to get back to something aproaching normal is not by throwing caution to the wind and getting everybody infected. As far as is confirmed less than 4% of the population have had CoVid19. and that leave a lot more to go. Not taking precautions will just create wave after wave and that will not encourage people to travel. And that includes those precautions that inconvenience the travel industry, including airlines. Some precautions might god forbid even cost Ryanair money even though they try their damndest to push those over on the airports.

[PilotLZ]

The massive protests in the UK, the USA and multiple other countries aren't that much about human rights any longer, I believe. They are largely a vent for the tension which has built up in society during the last month. Many aren't going there to defend any cause but to vent out their overall frustration with the situation. I hope to be proven wrong but such mass gatherings might as well ignite the mass contagion which we just hoped had been avoided by the lockdown. And they will certainly cause further unrest in the sectors which suffered the worst from all the restrictions. If you can go to a protest with thousands of people, zero social distancing and no masks, then why can't you board an aircraft? Why can't you go to a concert or a sports event? Why do you have to keep denying yourself any contact with other human beings? Especially in the UK, where the road trip of Mr Cummings to Durham already caused a great number of people to ignore lockdown, things can get completely out of hand soon. I hope that the next weeks will prove me wrong, but this is not looking good for now.

[standbykid]

I'm still curious to know what happens if you return to an airport before 14 days are up for a direct flight home. If one is fit to fly you then cease to be the UK's problem. Surely they wouldn't make you stay.

[pilot9248]

I suppose nothing will happen since the UK doesn’t check who’s leaving the country.

[Flying Hi]

Or who's arriving other than the pointless form you'll fill in.
Mickey Mouse will be EVERYWHERE.

[mpenage]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52916179?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=5ed95658083ece06552cb34f%26UK%20government%20qua rantine%20call%20%27a%20shambles%27%262020-06-04T20%3A26%3A37.034Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:45a3d58f-dc82-4c39-a62f-a12d888c18ee&pinned_post_asset_id=5ed95658083ece06552cb34f&pinned_post_type=share

[wiggy]

I'm still curious to know what happens if you return to an airport before 14 days are up for a direct flight home. If one is fit to fly you then cease to be the UK's problem. Surely they wouldn't make you stay.

The rules I have seen for essential workers have been told they can leave before the 14 days are up.

[Phantom4]

It’s being suggested that the Quarantine is part of a bigger play in the Brexit negotiations.
Not sure whether that is a clever strategy to deter UK citizens holidays to Spain,France etc.

[back to Boeing]

So no inbound tourism and hurting UK based businesses the most. Genius plan. How many feet does the uk have to shoot itself in???

[wiggy]

There are already major restrictions on entering France and Spain that will I suspect have already deterred many Brits from taking holidays in those countries this summer.

[Fostex]

- It has been a long time since the UK government has done nothing approaching 'clever', let alone had a strategy.

[SWBKCB]

Not seen this get a mention? And didn't Greece also find positive cases on a flight from Australia?

Flight - Greece halts Qatar flights after positive Covid-19 tests (https://www.flightglobal.com/networks/greece-halts-qatar-flights-after-positive-covid-19-tests/138668.article)

[jimmievegas]

How many feet does the uk have to shoot itself in???Is this one of those trick questions, like "How many children does Johnson have?"

[deltahotel]

Just received Border Measures Aviation document effective Monday. It’s a bit of a tome, but I’ll just throw out two things.

1. • The regulations permit departure from England within 14 days of arrival.
• Crew who arrive as passengers for commuting purposes are not considered
to be travelling in the course of their work. (and so must self isolate on arrival).

2. There is an online contact form which must be filled in prior to arrival (no earlier than 48hrs). And must be completed for every arrival.

“ Crew are not exempt from the requirement to complete the passenger locator form and they must complete a form for every trip to England, whether travelling as a passenger or crew.”

This doc arrived at the airline (and presumably all airlines ) late last night

ps don’t shoot the messenger!

[2Planks]

Understandably, as a mainly British site, there is focus on our government and as a primarily civil aviation site there is a focus on pilot and CC jobs.
But there are also a lot of blinkers on as well. Just looking at 3 other Commonwealth counties, NZ, Aus and Canada. All are closed to business and tourist visitors and all require 14 days isolation.

NZ has been hailed as an example of how to handle this crisis.

[Del Prado]

Further information here.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-travellers-exempt-from-uk-border-rules/coronavirus-covid-19-travellers-exempt-from-uk-border-rules?fbclid=IwAR3t6YWdq1MzoxIUs4-YGwTafqWVOOlbz5iuIuPMvRgmjT-jVah9aBEiGP8#people-who-live-in-the-uk-but-work-in-another-country-and-travel-between-the-uk-and-country-of-work-at-least-once-a-week

[MaximumPete]

Quarantine has been used since before Biblical times to contour infectious diseases and in each instance it was done to prevent the uninfected community being infected by arrivals from infected areas. Should we have had quarantine a few months ago? Yes absolutely and unreservedly.

Should quarantine be introduced today for inbound passengers coming from a relatively disease free area? NO way, it's too late!!!

Other countries have selective quarantine measures and appreciate the dangers of passengers coming from infected areas.

Not too hard to work out, certainly with the grasp of politicians, but then that's debatable. !!

[Flying Hi]

With the UK population clearly under no kind of meaningful control since Day 1 of Lockdown, a Quarantine of Incomers is now pointless.
The tsunami (2nd wave) will now engulf us, created by our own hand over this past weekend. Or are Gov going to pretend that all the so-called Protesters congregating en masse were all 100% Covid free?

[golfyankeesierra]

Having been to the UK as crew many times I privately travelled only once. Had to stand in line for UK immigration for so long, even worse then US CBP, felt like 14 days already...

[wiggy]

With the UK population clearly under no kind of meaningful control since Day 1 of Lockdown

The UK lockdown certainly did not appear anything like as well policed/controlled as it was in some other countries...

And on the subject of controlling the UK Quarantine , from "The Times" this afternoon....:

About 40 flights landed at Heathrow this morning from destinations including the US, Hong Kong, Japan, Canada, Doha, Bahrain, Ethiopia and across Europe.

However, the chaotic introduction of the measures was criticised today. Lucy Moreton, a professional officer at the Immigration Services Union, told the BBC that technical papers explaining what to check for only arrived on Friday and were still not available to many border staff. She insisted there was no system for checking addresses and that only clear rule-breakers would be picked up.

A leaked memo to Border Force officials said that only “manifestly false” information such as an arrival putting down their name as “Mickey Mouse” or their address as “Buckingham Palace” would result in checks.


https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/airlines-seek-quarantine-injunction-as-holiday-bookings-soar-5pz6hshzp


Colour me surprised....

[FlyingFrl]

Good evening all,

Does anybody have more details on the following exemption:Pilots and crew, as defined in paragraph 1 of Schedule 1 to the Air Navigation Order 2016(h), where such crew have travelled to the UK in the course of their workYou’ll need to complete the Public Health passenger locator form before you travel to the UK. You will not need to self-isolate for 14 days.

You should show a crew badge or ID.

Source: govuk website.

Is commuting/positioning to the UK included in this exemption? Or Will I be required to self-isolate for 14 days upon arrival? Has anybody recently travelled to the UK and is willing to share his/her experience crossing the border?
Will a crew id / license / medical etc be sufficient to cross without having to quarantine?
Some more info, working/living in the UK and currently staying with family in the Netherlands.

Many thanks.

[wiggy]

AFAIK, to paraphrase the rule set we have been given:

Crew member, Base in UK: rostered positioning back to UK at end of block of work you are exempt from self isolation.

Crew member, Base in UK: commuting/travelling back into UK as passenger (including return from overseas holiday for UK resident crew) - you need to self isolate, though you can break this quarantine to travel to work directly to perform company rostered duties only such as sims, operate a flight/trip........

[mac57]

Hi Wiggy et al,

What about a crew member based overseas (non-EU) only entering the UK to renew a medical, and planning to stay for less than two weeks? Is there anything in the guidance on that?

Asking for a friend.

Well OK asking for myself.:)

[Nightstop]

Hi mac57, you’re obliged to self isolate for 14 days except for the reasons listed on the UK Govt website. Renewing your medical isn’t one of those reasons, so unfortunately you’d have to wait until day 15 to renew (not including your day of arrival).

[midnight cruiser]

I'd say a medical is "in the course of work", certainly if it's on your roster.

[Nightstop]

I wouldn’t and my medical renewal has never appeared on my roster during the last 45 years, always done in own time.

Waiting today for Breaking News as to the UK Govt’s modification to the 14 day quarantine period...

[homonculus]

So if you have arrived as part of the crew of the aircraft you can go for your medical. If you have arrived as a passenger to have your medical you need to quarantine first. The medical is irrelevant, it is your role on the incoming flight that determines quarantine. There is however an exception if you are arriving for medical treatment so if you have a medical problem that needs correcting for your medical to be issued you dont need to quarantine, although you wont be able to be an in patient in a UK hospital without 14 days isolation.

[PilotLZ]

So, looks like the new policy will be a "traffic light" system, with each country being assigned a colour code which will be reviewed regularly. Green - safer than the UK, amber - less safe than the UK, red - self-isolation required upon arrival. Nothing is mentioned in the way of visits to countries preceding the one from which the entry into the UK is made. For example, if you are coming from a green country but 3 days ago you visited a red one, that doesn't seem to make any difference. Which will likely give the upper leg in terms of connecting flights to the UK to the green countries.

[42...]

The future is stupid my friends.

[guy_incognito]

PilotLZ

Which is why I'd expect a judicial review to succeed on the grounds of irrationality.

[mac57]

Hi again, and thanks for all the replies. I did some more digging and found a copy of 'Border Measures Q&A - Aviation Sector' issued on 5th June. I'm afraid as I have less than 10 posts on PPRUNE I can't share the url, but I found it on the BBGA website.

On page 12 under the section headed 'Will the below crew scenarios be exempt, or will they have to go into 14-day quarantine, one of the scenarios is:
d) Crew flying into England commercially to carry out simulator training at a UK approved centre?

The answer, which was a surprise, was Yes. "Crew who travel to England for the purposes of attending training in England are considered to be travelling in the course of their work and therefore they are exempt."

So according to that rationale, it would appear that travelling to England to renew a medical would also be considered 'in the course of their work', on the basis that a medical renewal is just as necessary (and unavailable locally) as sim training.

I'm assuming it's all change from Monday anyway but unfortunately I'm arriving on Sunday. Thanks again everyone for your thoughts and ideas.

[crewmeal]

Nothing is mentioned in the way of visits to countries preceding the one from which the entry into the UK is made. For example, if you are coming from a green country but 3 days ago you visited a red one, that doesn't seem to make any difference. Which will likely give the upper leg in terms of connecting flights to the UK to the green countries.

A friend of mine is travelling from Cairo to Paris today and then on to London. Considering Egypt is a red light zone, France is green the whole system seems absurd!! Additionlly Egyptair restart their LHR schedule today, so on arrival at Terminal 2, what happens when passengers mix with flights from green light zones at immigration? Am I missing something here?

[FlyingFrl]

AFAIK, to paraphrase the rule set we have been given:

Crew member, Base in UK: rostered positioning back to UK at end of block of work you are exempt from self isolation.

Crew member, Base in UK: commuting/travelling back into UK as passenger (including return from overseas holiday for UK resident crew) - you need to self isolate, though you can break this quarantine to travel to work directly to perform company rostered duties only such as sims, operate a flight/trip........

Thanks for your reply, is there any documentation of the last part? "you need to self isolate, though you can break this quarantine to travel to work directly to perform company rostered duties only such as sims, operate a flight/trip"

Cheers

[Webby737]

There's info on the government website here https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-travellers-exempt-from-uk-border-rules/coronavirus-covid-19-travellers-exempt-from-uk-border-rules
It's a bit vague (nothing new there!) but it states:

"People who live in the UK but work in another country and travel between the UK and country of work at least once a weekYou’ll need to complete the Public Health passenger locator form (https://visas-immigration.service.gov.uk/public-health-passenger-locator-form) before you travel to the UK.You will not need to self-isolate for 14 days if you are staying in England, Wales or Northern Ireland. You’ll need to self-isolate for 14 days if you are staying in Scotland.You’ll need to show evidence that you reside in one country but work in the other and you should also be able to demonstrate that you travel between the two on a minimum of a weekly basis, for example, a season ticket."
This would cover those who are commuting and arriving back in the UK as a passenger.

And then for foreign flight & cabin crew
"Pilots and crew, as defined in paragraph 1 of Schedule 1 to the Air Navigation Order 2016(h), where such crew have travelled to the UK in the course of their work You’ll need to complete the Public Health passenger locator form (https://visas-immigration.service.gov.uk/public-health-passenger-locator-form?_ga=2.28305148.1904892254.1593612751-2096532671.1593518919) before you travel to the UK. You will not need to self-isolate for 14 days.
You should show a crew badge or ID."

I'd looked at this yesterday as I was trying to see if an engineer had travelled to Europe as part of their duties if they had to self-isolate for 14 days upon their return to the UK.
I still haven't found a definite answer !

[Del Prado]

Maybe not definitive but surely this would apply on a reciprocal basis?“Specialist aerospace engineers, or specialist workers responsible for ensuring the safe operation of aircraft.You’ll need to complete the Public Health passenger locator form (https://visas-immigration.service.gov.uk/public-health-passenger-locator-form) before you travel to the UK. You will not need to self-isolate for 14 days.

You’ll need to show a letter from your company at the border which includes:

your personal details, such as name and address
contact details for your employer
what work you’ll be doing

If your employer issued you with photo identification, you should bring this with you to the UK.”

[PilotLZ]

This is getting mental. The news about which countries are likely to be exempt from quarantine changes every couple of hours. In the past day, I have seen a good 5 versions of the story, with anything between 5 and 90 countries on the list, with start date which could be the 6th of July but could also be the 10th of July etc. How can people feel confident booking anything and how can airlines and tour operators feel confident about their products with this level of uncertainty?

[Flying Clog]

Or just don't pay a blind bit of notice to the 14 day self-isolation in the UK. No one else is, and it's unenforceable.

[FullWings]

List just published:

covid 19 travel corridors (gov.uk) (https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-travel-corridors)

[SOPS]

Why are the British making it so hard.? You are an island. Do what we have done in Australia. Close the borders. No one can leave.. full stop. Well if your not Australian you can. Anyone that arrives from anywhere .. and you basically have to be an Australian citizen to do that.. goes into quarantine for 14 days.. in a hotel. Except for the Victoria it’s worked really well .. out total deaths are around 106. It’s not hard when you are an island.

[Flying Hi]

Its not hard here. Simples. At​ the end of the day it's all about the money. Lives are collateral damage to this Gov..
To paraphrase the current slogans "No Lives Matter" just "show me the money."
BoJo cannot multi task and is fixated, despite rhetoric to any kind of contrary to driving Brexit negotiations to a No Deal - the plan all along - and so cannot apply coherent thought to any other issue.
So glad my son & family moved to Sydney in 2014.

[Yeehaw22]

So what are we supposed to do lock ourselves away indefinitly? Cut ourselves off from the world until the virus has gone? Get real and see both sides of the balance. If we locked down for ever there'd be nothing left worth surviving the pandemic for.

[PilotLZ]

Apart from Miss Rona, there are many other diseases around the world - and every now and again one or a couple of them raise their ugly head. In the last few weeks, there has been an outbreak of Ebola, an outbreak of Nipa, an outbreak of Dengue and an outbreak of plague in different countries across Africa and Asia. So, shall we just seal everything off until there are zero cases of any infectious disease? That's simply impossible.

So, instead, it boils down to risk assessment and targeted protective measures. Risk in country A? Acceptable. Allow free travel. Risk in country B? Unacceptable. Restrict travel. That's the one and only way of making it through this with minimal damage - and perhaps one of the wisest decisions the UK government have taken since the beginning of the pandemic.

[TerryCherry]

Quarantine is nonsense. Just a political tick box. There will be zero enforcement.

[Flying Hi]

So what are we supposed to do lock ourselves away indefinitly? Cut ourselves off from the world until the virus has gone? Get real and see both sides of the balance. If we locked down for ever there'd be nothing left worth surviving the pandemic for.
Q1 - answer - if we have to..
Q2 - answer - if we have to.
Balancing human life vs money and profit? There's an ugly thought..

[Jet II]

But making everyone poorer through less economic activity also kills people - it's not a straight decision between saving lives or economic activity. People die in both cases.

[Yeehaw22]

Exactly correct.

[thetimesreader84]

“You can’t put a price on Human life!”

Well, it turns out you can. The NHS uses a “Quality Adjusted Life Year (QALY)” as a measure of cost versus benefit for interventions - each extra year of normal quality of life is worth £30,000. The DfT have the same measure, but they value it as £60,000. In this instance they are considering the impact of transport disasters.

I’d question how many QALYs the quarantine has actually saved, versus the immense costs to industry (and therefore tax income, etc). I’m pretty sure I can guess which side of the cost / benefit ratio it comes down on.

[PilotLZ]

It's not just a matter of economic activity, although poverty indeed kills people by itself. Living through an extended period of lockdown with no end in sight takes a serious toll on everyone's physical and mental wellbeing. You can't go anywhere other than the grocery store, you can't see anyone, you can't plan anything, you can't do your job - the list goes on and on. It's probably more or less bearable if you are a clinically reclusive type who doesn't step out of their bedroom even in the best of times - and if you have a firm source of income that's not reliant upon the situation outside, maybe a state pension. But, for most people, any further extension of this torture would hardly be tolerable. And not only because people lose their jobs en masse. Something a lot worse is that people who used to be perfectly healthy and mentally stable some months ago now have a deteriorating health and mental issues which are a lot more likely to kill them or decimate their quality of life than corona.

[Jet II]

Interesting perspective when you look at the total death rate per 1000 historically - even with the current level of pandemic deaths we are still only back at the level of what was the 'norm' 15 years ago. I must say that personally I didnt feel that unsafe then, certainly not to the extent oo shutting myself away from society.


https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1160x634/screenshot_from_2020_07_04_07_02_40_8a94b04b8fbf431a5aedf5a1 372677a7fc08610f.png
hat tip Hector Drummond

[guy_incognito]

Balancing human life vs money and profit? There's an ugly thought..

I don't find it ugly at all. At some point pragmatism has to win out, and there needs to be a move away from the childish notion that human life is priceless.

[anxiao]

A very interesting graph. I wonder what happened around 1980 that started the downward trend?

[procede]

Something doesn't look right. If the average life expectancy is 80 years, then the average death rate should be around 12. An average rate of 9, would mean a life expectancy of 111...

[FullWings]

That can be explained by the fact that the UK population has increased over time. 80 years ago it was <50m; now it’s approaching 70m. There are also demographic variations.

[catch21]

I believe we'll look back and conclude we over-protected those that didn't need protecting and under-protected those that did.

[2Planks]

The decline from the early 80s is down to a number of things I think. Firstly heath awareness and diet. Levels of smoking also began to fall dramatically as did the number of men in heavy dirty industries, coal mining, steel works, working with asbestos etc. Health and safety got into full swing, car accidents became much more survivable. Medical advancements came on in leaps and bounds such as cancer detection and treatment. Golden years of heath progress.

[homonculus]

Interesting perspective when you look at the total death rate per 1000 historically - even with the current level of pandemic deaths we are still only back at the level of what was the 'norm'

The death rate should currently be far lower than normal because we are still effectively doing little elective surgery (a disgrace in itself, but for another thread). We last stopped elective surgery in the UK in the 1970s when consultants went on strike and the death rate plummeted because although operations help more people than they harm, some are harmed.

Then add in the people we didnt screen since March, or who didnt present with initial symptoms od cancer / heart disease / stroke - their mortality will be greater but this will not be seen for some time. Overall excess deaths will continue to accumulate for many years. All we can currently say is that the level of infection and the belated locking down of the elderly currently leads to few daily deaths compared with pre covid, but the infection is still there and a rebound is possible. It could get out of control quickly if we misjudge it.

[White Knight]

Why are the British making it so hard.? You are an island. Do what we have done in Australia. Close the borders. No one can leave.. full stop. Well if your not Australian you can. Anyone that arrives from anywhere .. and you basically have to be an Australian citizen to do that.. goes into quarantine for 14 days.. in a hotel. Except for the Victoria it’s worked really well .. out total deaths are around 106. It’s not hard when you are an island.

UK is very different from Oz SOPS as well you know. It's a geographic crossroads with a population of 65,000,000 in a landmass the size of Victoria! To quarantine the UK would be totally pointless as once the virus is in it just spreads like mad (current estimates are that over a sixth of the UK population have actually had the virus now; showing how low the actual mortality is). Australia is of course at the bottom of the world and except for NZ would be a Cul-de-Sac, and with a far less dense population control is a different exercise. As for Comrade Dan's efforts to eradicate rather than contain? Kind of missing the point isn't he? There's a good chance that we'll have to learn to live with this virus; I do feel that Oz and NZ are going to be somewhat left behind!

[PilotLZ]

I believe we'll look back and conclude we over-protected those that didn't need protecting and under-protected those that did.
Oh, yes. Probably offloading corona patients into care homes "to save hospital capacity" wasn't the best idea. But, as hard to justify as it is, insufficient protection of care facilities accounted for a huge fraction of the deaths in many countries, including but not limited to Sweden, Italy and Spain. On the contrary, in Eastern Europe there were far less deaths because very few of the seniors there live in care homes and can therefore self-isolate more efficiently in their private accommodation.