Who will survive this and be here in 6 months ?

[ATC Watcher]

As bad news arrive everyday , almost every hour now and the endemic peak still weeks or months away , who is strong enough to overcome the storm and how our industry will look like 6 moths from now?
Not only crews and airlines but our whole industry .
For instance with Boeing share price around 150 USD ,today a drop of 70% in a few months, can the commercial division survive ?

[Clandestino]

Oh suuure; if the Boeing goes belly up, it will be all due to the 2019. SARS strain and in no way related to the fact America's finest narrowbody is has been grounded for a year, with quite poor chances of ever being allowed to fly again.

[davidjpowell]

Even if it can fly, will airlines still want to proceed or ditch their order on the basis of late delivery...

[Uplinker]

According to the CDC, 3,000 people have died from the Covid19 virus but 20,000 people have died from Flu in the current season.

According to a virologist on the radio yesterday: 1/5 of people exposed will catch Covid19. Only 1/5 of those will display symptoms. So that's 4% of people who have been exposed, by my maths, or 1 in 25. Of those, most will just have a fever and a dry cough.

Time to stop panicking.

Wash your hands - with water and soap - more than usual and take multi vitamins and minerals.

[Bora Bora]

Yes, let’s sit and watch who’s dying, shall we? Like rubbernecking at an accident. Everybody can think of some candidates in bad shape, but there will be surprises too. Having a discussion who will and who won’t is bad taste in my book. Enough people, in almost ALL companies, will be severely worried at the moment.

[Clandestino]

Even if it can flySure she can fly. She just needs three small items fixed: proper SAS instead of STS, proper stick pusher instead of MCAS and whole world willing to dial the certification criteria down to 1960s standards. Piece of cake in today's world, Naomi Klein would observe.

[cattletruck]

Welcome to the new world of selfish introspective #MeToo victim playing millennials.
We survived SARs and a number of world wars, but for the new generation when its all about them and they perceive the odds against them, then they just collapse like a house of cards.
May I suggest a couple of things:
- Turn off your phone.
- Sell your TV.
- Look at the people around you for what they are.
Then in six months when your still alive and wasting precious oxygen, consider making an apology for being a selfish pri!ck (if it's within your capability).

ATC Watcher, I respect most of your posts but I feel this time you are listening to the idiot brigade that now run our media and finance. In time you will see what I see.

[GreenBook]

Welcome to the new world of selfish introspective #MeToo victim playing millennials.
We survived SARs and a number of world wars, but for the new generation when its all about them and they perceive the odds against them, then they just collapse like a house of cards.
May I suggest a couple of things:
- Turn off your phone.
- Sell your TV.
- Look at the people around you for what they are.
Then in six months when your still alive and wasting precious oxygen, consider making an apology for being a selfish pri!ck (if it's within your capability).


And this statement is supposed to help or solve problems?

[derjodel]

According to the CDC, 3,000 people have died from the Covid19 virus but 20,000 people have died from Flu in the current season.

Yes. 20k have died since September 2019 for flu, and 5k have died of Corona since January 2020. Of those 5k, 1k in Italy in the past 3 weeks alone. You people really, really don't understand exponential growth and the fact that in the most of the world the epidemy has only just started.


According to a virologist on the radio yesterday: 1/5 of people exposed will catch Covid19. Only 1/5 of those will display symptoms. So that's 4% of people who have been exposed, by my maths, or 1 in 25. Of those, most will just have a fever and a dry cough.

Time to stop panicking.

Wash your hands - with water and soap - more than usual and take multi vitamins and minerals.

Everybody is /r/iamverysmart about this until they are hit hard. Look at Italy, look at the stories doctors are telling first hand. Who do you think knows something about it? An armrest chair virologist or somebody who is right there, in the cockpit so to speak?

Also, I really wonder what study this guy quoted or used as a basis for his claim? Because you know, if it were so innocent, then how come the Chinese are literary welding people's doors to keep them inside and Italians are not accepting anyone under 60 into the intensive care - literary if you are over 60 you are on your own, left to die. And the cutoff age is getting lower.

But sure, while some of us isolate, go ahead and make corona parties to expose yourself to it and get immune... we'll collect your bodies in a few months as the evolutionary process prunes the unfit.

[cattletruck]

And this statement is supposed to help or solve problems?

Yes it does. When Tom Hanks recovers from his unfortunate spell with the virus then the idiot brigade will exploit it for all it's worth and completely ignore the doom they were peddling beforehand, the world will then return to normal as if nothing happened (according to them).

Pick that time on the sharemarket and you will do well.

[Good Business Sense]

FACT - Businesses everywhere, particularly airlines, still managing to sell their services and products - sale goes through credit card and it's not coming back from the banks. All cost, no income. The economic death spiral starts - we should have jailed all of them in 2008.

[Widger]

Hmmmmm, I think ATC Watcher may have been referring to which parts of the industry will survive rather then individuals. Its a very worrying time, right across the board. The USA will be a big risk without universal healthcare, there could be a huge outbreak in that country, which will have an impact on the domestic and international operators, alongside many of the OEMs as well.


Be nice people, as the WHO states, we are all in this together.

[Pander216]

According to the CDC, 3,000 people have died from the Covid19 virus but 20,000 people have died from Flu in the current season.

According to a virologist on the radio yesterday: 1/5 of people exposed will catch Covid19. Only 1/5 of those will display symptoms. So that's 4% of people who have been exposed, by my maths, or 1 in 25. Of those, most will just have a fever and a dry cough.

Time to stop panicking.

Wash your hands - with water and soap - more than usual and take multi vitamins and minerals.

So what is the scientific base that multi vitamins and minerals wil stop this pandemic? Your maths are completely incorrect. I do not even know where to start.

There will be an exponential growth every 6 days until drastic measures are taken that prevent countries healthcare systems to collapse. Yes, the majority of the symptoms are mild. However, 20% still require medical treatment. Hospitals in Italy are overflowing and medical personnel is performing triage.

They have to chose who lives and dies. Before, people above 80, now 60 wil not be admitted. Where does this stop if if beds and material are depleted? Do you think the WHO or doctors in countries as Italy are “merely” panicking?

This has nothing to do with panicking but being rational about the impact of this virus. Being naïeve does not help. Taking vitamins and minerals do not help. Social distancing helps. Please, please, please take 25 minutes the read the article below to fully understand what will happen if we do not mitigate the consequences starting right now.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

[ATC Watcher]

Whow, do not put words in my post that I did not use. I am not looking at counting bodies and collecting old airlines models.. This is not the Corona virus that will not change things on its own , It , like every accident a combination of factors . the MAX and the corona effect on airlines,for Boeing ( a lot of airlines will at best defer at worst cancel orders , a few will no longer exist when this is over , etc..)
The virus seems to have the same effect to the people as to the airlines, the old/weak ones with pre-condition illness will die first .And since there were quite a few of them before this virus, that will change a lot for all of us here.

If I take my branch , ATC, most of the ANSPs today are privatized or run on separate budgets and depend on airlines paying fees, with less of them flying around, less fees coming in , halving the North Atlantic traffic for instance at flip of a tweet will have huge financial implications. . .They can continue to pay salaries and maintain facilities for some time but after that ? Stopping training and forcing people to retire early ? we did that after 9/11 and less in 2008, and we are still paying the bill as staff shortages are huge.
Same in most of the air travel industry . We could be crippling our industry for years to come ..

As to switching off my phone and not listening to the news. I am not a fan of the ostrich. And absolutely , yes we are all in this together...

[ARealTimTuffy]

Welcome to the new world of selfish introspective #MeToo victim playing millennials.
We survived SARs and a number of world wars, but for the new generation when its all about them and they perceive the odds against them, then they just collapse like a house of cards.
May I suggest a couple of things:
- Turn off your phone.
- Sell your TV.
- Look at the people around you for what they are.
Then in six months when your still alive and wasting precious oxygen, consider making an apology for being a selfish pri!ck (if it's within your capability).

ATC Watcher, I respect most of your posts but I feel this time you are listening to the idiot brigade that now run our media and finance. In time you will see what I see.

You should probably get over yourself. You realize that the majority of those running the countries and making decisions in regards to this crisis are not millennials. Most of them are still of the baby boom generation.

[Switchbait]

Yes it does. When Tom Hanks recovers from his unfortunate spell with the virus then the idiot brigade will exploit it for all it's worth and completely ignore the doom they were peddling beforehand, the world will then return to normal as if nothing happened (according to them).

Pick that time on the sharemarket and you will do well.

Hand that man a beer 👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼

[cattletruck]

ATC Watcher, apologies if you thought I put words in your mouth, that was not the intention. My point is (and was) that humans are a resilient bunch, most of us will heed the warnings, apply common sense and will take the necessary precautions, and lo and behold, will survive. But we will do it without all the current media frenzy on the subject which is inducing mass hysteria causing the foolish and greedy to hoard essential supplies - which is precisely my beef. The current situation may be serious, but it is not permanent if we all behave the right way. Unfortunately the industries of self interest - media and finance - are not helping the issue.

[Islandlad]

When Tom Hanks recovers from his unfortunate spell with the virus then the idiot brigade will exploit it for all it's worth and completely ignore the doom they were peddling beforehand, the world will then return to normal as if nothing happened (according to them).
Are there any stats on the numbers already well?

Counting the totals is all very well but at some point the sick come out the other side as well. Then go back to work as a rolling 20% of a sick working population. 1 in 5 is not that big a number if you look at your own work place.

[Flyingmole]

But unfortunately what you have failed to factor in is just how infectious Covid-19 is. With Western European countries such as Germany now saying - based on their best available scientific advice - that 70% or more of their population may get infected this year it doesn't take a maths genius to work out that in Germany this would mean a 0.5% fatality rate would result in 400,000 deaths.

[derjodel]

But unfortunately what you have failed to factor in is just how infectious Covid-19 is. With Western European countries such as Germany now saying - based on their best available scientific advice - that 70% or more of their population may get infected this year it doesn't take a maths genius to work out that in Germany this would mean a 0.5% fatality rate would result in 400,000 deaths.

0.5% is laughable. If the thing is not contained, it can be up to 10%. Look at Italy: 15k cases, 1k dead!

We need to contain this to protect healthcare capacity: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TV3h0XfVm0o

[Sholayo]

And note that Germans do some creative statistics there.
If you had asthma and got COVID19 and then died - they count you as asthma death.
So reality is muuuch worse there.


&

[lomapaseo]

But unfortunately what you have failed to factor in is just how infectious Covid-19 is. With Western European countries such as Germany now saying - based on their best available scientific advice - that 70% or more of their population may get infected this year it doesn't take a maths genius to work out that in Germany this would mean a 0.5% fatality rate would result in 400,000 deaths.

I'll take my chances with that rate any day.

Like aviation that keeps on growing, the greater the population at risk, the greater the number affected by a single cause. What is needed is the relative contribution of a single cause over a fixed period of time, compared to the basic underlying risk of dying from any cause, known or unknown.

Jet Blast

[cattletruck]

Are there any stats on the numbers already well?

I found this site to be interesting https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/

The last graph (outcome of cases) is compelling.

[Wizofoz]

According to the CDC, 3,000 people have died from the Covid19 virus but 20,000 people have died from Flu in the current season.

According to a virologist on the radio yesterday: 1/5 of people exposed will catch Covid19. Only 1/5 of those will display symptoms. So that's 4% of people who have been exposed, by my maths, or 1 in 25. Of those, most will just have a fever and a dry cough.

Time to stop panicking.

Wash your hands - with water and soap - more than usual and take multi vitamins and minerals.

Flu has a fatality rate of .1%, Thus virus is between 3.4 and 6%, so between 340 and 600 times as deadly, and it spreads and multiplies in a similar way.

Don't tell me, you also think climate change is a hoax too...

[733driver]

Flu has a fatality rate of .1%, Thus virus is between 3.4 and 6%, so between 340 and 600 times as deadly, and it spreads and multiplies in a similar way.

Don't tell me, you also think climate change is a hoax too...

I'm not one of those that say "it's just a flu". However, the mortality rate is most likely nowhere near as high as you suggest. Your numbers are only based on known infections. It is fair to assume that there are lot's more unknown infections which will bring down the mortality rate a lot. My guess based on everything I have read is to not more than 1%

Again, that is still ten times worse than the regular flu. But not as bad as you suggested.

[Islandlad]

Flu has a fatality rate of .1%, Thus virus is between 3.4 and 6%, so between 340 and 600 times as deadly, and it spreads and multiplies in a similar way.

Don't tell me, you also think climate change is a hoax too...
Did Al Gore do your modeling for that?

1% is the going rate - UK CMO

Take a look at the facts about both topics

[Louietheflyer]

In responce to the question "Who will still be here in 6 months". My answer,...Most of us...But with almost eight billion humans on this world the numbers will still be huge.

[derjodel]

Wait til this hits the 3rd world... Italy can't cope, imagine some parts of Africa...

[Pander216]

Did Al Gore do your modeling for that?

1% is the going rate - UK CMO

Take a look at the facts about both topics

Please first read the article from the link before spreading partially incorrect statements. Especially the UK is very good at downplaying this at the moment. The 0.5-1% number is due to the fact that we are at the very beginning of this pandemic. Someone infected today will die in approx. 2 weeks. Therefore the current number of deaths is hardly correct to paint a correct picture. So is the number of people infected. The amounts are much higher than known.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

[Wizofoz]

I'm not one of those that say "it's just a flu". However, the mortality rate is most likely nowhere near as high as you suggest. Your numbers are only based on known infections. It is fair to assume that there are lot's more unknown infections which will bring down the mortality rate a lot. My guess based on everything I have read is to not more than 1%

Again, that is still ten times worse than the regular flu. But not as bad as you suggested.

And, of course, your figures are based on "My Guess"- not the experts whose job it is to provide these figures.

[Wizofoz]

Did Al Gore do your modeling for that?

1% is the going rate - UK CMO

Take a look at the facts about both topics

But 1% is WAY lowball

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#measuring-and-interpreting-the-case-fatality-rate

Yeah, the CMO says no problem-

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/coronavirus-as-many-as-10000-in-britain-may-already-have-it-says-pm

Facts on that other matter

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/mar/11/polar-ice-caps-melting-six-times-faster-than-in-1990s

[Islandlad]

But 1% is WAY lowball

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#measuring-and-interpreting-the-case-fatality-rate

Yeah, the CMO says no problem-

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/coronavirus-as-many-as-10000-in-britain-may-already-have-it-says-pm

Facts on that other matter

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/mar/11/polar-ice-caps-melting-six-times-faster-than-in-1990s
A good point but he was referring to a society reacting to keep the peak as low as possible with planned interventions.

[b1lanc]

I'm not one of those that say "it's just a flu". However, the mortality rate is most likely nowhere near as high as you suggest. Your numbers are only based on known infections. It is fair to assume that there are lot's more unknown infections which will bring down the mortality rate a lot. My guess based on everything I have read is to not more than 1%

Again, that is still ten times worse than the regular flu. But not as bad as you suggested.
The state I work in has declared emergency - unless you are very high risk or showing severe symptoms requiring hospitalization, you are not tested to confirm COVID - not enough test kits to go around. So likely, you are correct that the mortality rate is quite a bit lower then the numbers being spouted.

[733driver]

And, of course, your figures are based on "My Guess"- not the experts whose job it is to provide these figures.

Wrong: My "guess" based on expert opinion I have read. I'm just making their bets guess my best guess. We do know the number of deaths but we (including the experts) can only guess the number of those infected. It's almost certain that many more people are invected but have not been tested.

[Jonty]

The U.K. CMO is saying that between 5000 to 10000 people in the IK have the virus, very few are confirmed cases. Like other countries the confirmed cases are the “tip of the iceberg”. So working on that premiss the death rate is about .7%.

[derjodel]

The U.K. CMO is saying that between 5000 to 10000 people in the IK have the virus, very few are confirmed cases. Like other countries the confirmed cases are the “tip of the iceberg”. So working on that premiss the death rate is about .7%.

This is deceiving.

Once you are confirmed, the probability of dying is 3.4% (or whatever the number currently is), because you are now in the tested cohort, and we know the mortality rate of the tested cohort.

[Wizofoz]

Wrong: My "guess" based on expert opinion I have read. I'm just making their bets guess my best guess. We do know the number of deaths but we (including the experts) can only guess the number of those infected. It's almost certain that many more people are invected but have not been tested.

Almost certainly true with flu also,

[jimmievegas]

Welcome to the new world of selfish introspective #MeToo victim playing millennials.... but for the new generation when its all about them and they perceive the odds against them, then they just collapse like a house of cards.
Those would be the same millennials who are unlikely to actually die of this, right? The ones with a very low mortality rate? Unlike all the old farts who are moaning about the millennials...

[OPENDOOR]

In 2017, there were 56 million deaths globally

https://ourworldindata.org/causes-of-death

World population is approximately 7.7 billion. The worst case infection rate has been quoted as 80% which would give 6.16 billion. If the mortality rate of 1% is correct then 61.6 million extra deaths.

I wish I hadn't looked now.

[Aithiopika]

Flu has a fatality rate of .1%, Thus virus is between 3.4 and 6%, so between 340 and 600 times as deadly, and it spreads and multiplies in a similar way.

Don't tell me, you also think climate change is a hoax too...

You have an extra zero in there. .1% to 3.4% is 34x.

[b1lanc]

This is deceiving.

Once you are confirmed, the probability of dying is 3.4% (or whatever the number currently is), because you are now in the tested cohort, and we know the mortality rate of the tested cohort.
Here are today's stats for State of Massachusetts:
Number of positive cases - 108
Number confirmed positive - 6
Number of pending positive - 102
Number of hospitalizations - 10
Number of investigations to determine if hospitalization is required - 9
Patients not hospitalized - 89
Number of deaths - 0
Total number of people subjected to quarantine - 1,083
Number in quarantine - 445
Number completed quarantine - 638

Interesting to note that of the 108 confirmed cases, 89 resulted from a Biogen conference, 5 from travel, 8 from medical center compromise, 13 under investigation.

[lomapaseo]

https://ourworldindata.org/causes-of-death

World population is approximately 7.7 billion. The worst case infection rate has been quoted as 80% which would give 6.16 billion. If the mortality rate of 1% is correct then 61.6 million extra deaths.

I wish I hadn't looked now.

Not extra deaths, just attributed deaths. An already underlying death rate. would have taken us out any way. So show me the difference in total death rate for all causes in the next year and compare it to past years to make a point of how potent this really is.

[DaveReidUK]

This is deceiving.

Once you are confirmed, the probability of dying is 3.4% (or whatever the number currently is), because you are now in the tested cohort, and we know the mortality rate of the tested cohort.

No, not deceiving. It just demonstrates that there are several legitimate ways of calculating "death rate" or "probability of dying", depending on what you choose as the denominator.

[Denti]

0.5% is laughable. If the thing is not contained, it can be up to 10%. Look at Italy: 15k cases, 1k dead

Italy got into the unenviable situation that the health system was overwhelmed. Not to say that it cannot happen elsewhere. Once it is overwhelmed they have to turn to triage and that basically means that mortality goes up a lot as you simply stop helping those cases beyond a certain threshold, to preserve the available system for those where it makes most sense. Yes, that is usually done in war and not in a western country, but it can, and in this case, it did and does happen. Basically: Young and a good chance to survive? Get all the help you need. Old and very low chance? No more care, happy dieing.

[derjodel]

Italy got into the unenviable situation that the health system was overwhelmed. Not to say that it cannot happen elsewhere.

Italy will look like a walk in a park when **** hits the fan in the UK and USA.

Italy took extreme measures as soon as they had first confirmed case. UK and the USA are lagging far behind the reaction curve.

[Compton3fox]

Italy got into the unenviable situation that the health system was overwhelmed. Not to say that it cannot happen elsewhere. Once it is overwhelmed they have to turn to triage and that basically means that mortality goes up a lot as you simply stop helping those cases beyond a certain threshold, to preserve the available system for those where it makes most sense. Yes, that is usually done in war and not in a western country, but it can, and in this case, it did and does happen. Basically: Young and a good chance to survive? Get all the help you need. Old and very low chance? No more care, happy dieing.
Also remember that the number of detected cases vs. the actual number of cases will be very different. This will depend on the number of people tested for example. Look at the different test rates across different countries, it varies very widely.

[Compton3fox]

This link provides some interesting info: https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/?fbclid=IwAR3MXCgwlUXYnrtb0bQSK4tJf54Fm1PtCureH4BdbDYflw3X9G ierRrd6w4

[OPENDOOR]

Not extra deaths, just attributed deaths. An already underlying death rate. would have taken us out any way. So show me the difference in total death rate for all causes in the next year and compare it to past years to make a point of how potent this really is.
I sincerely hope I will be able to do that ;)

[ExGrunt]

Hi,

For credible information on the number of cases Johns Hopkins University has been coordinating global information:
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html)

Todays stats 13 March 20 2:15pm:
Confirmed cases: 137,066
Recovered: 69,643
Died: 5,069

[Just a spotter]

According to the CDC, 3,000 people have died from the Covid19 virus but 20,000 people have died from Flu in the current season.

According to a virologist on the radio yesterday: 1/5 of people exposed will catch Covid19. Only 1/5 of those will display symptoms. So that's 4% of people who have been exposed, by my maths, or 1 in 25. Of those, most will just have a fever and a dry cough.

Time to stop panicking.

Wash your hands - with water and soap - more than usual and take multi vitamins and minerals.

Or ... the UK's NHS is expecting 1/5 (20%) of the population to become infected. The WHO is reporting global mortality rates amongst infected individuals to be 3.4% (The Lancet has it higher at 5.7%).

For the UK alone, if the NHS & WHO numbers are correct, with a population of 66.4 million, that’s 13m infections with a mortality of over 451,000 (that's roughly the population of Cardiff, or Miami)

In the US, population 327 million, that equates to 65 million infections (equal to the entire population of the UK) and 2.2 million additional deaths (approx the population of Paris, or Houston).

Flu kills about 600,000 globally per annum.

But yes, wash your hands.

JAS

[Paul852]

Italy will look like a walk in a park when **** hits the fan in the UK and USA.

Italy took extreme measures as soon as they had first confirmed case. UK and the USA are lagging far behind the reaction curve.
No - the USA is far behind.

The UK has consciously chosen to take a somewhat different approach: actually listening to the scientists rather than worrying about any forthcoming elections. They accept that people will die, but they also accept that most people will be exposed to the virus at some point soon, and actually want that to happen so that they get to the point of "herd immunity" and the risk of a second wave of infections is much reduced. The essence of the UK's strategy is to curtail people's quality of life and economic activity as little as possible whilst trying to manage levels to the point where the NHS is stressed, but not overwhelmed.

Personally, I approve, and shall Keep Calm and Carry On.

[canyonblue737]

According to the CDC, 3,000 people have died from the Covid19 virus but 20,000 people have died from Flu in the current season.

According to a virologist on the radio yesterday: 1/5 of people exposed will catch Covid19. Only 1/5 of those will display symptoms. So that's 4% of people who have been exposed, by my maths, or 1 in 25. Of those, most will just have a fever and a dry cough.

Time to stop panicking.

Wash your hands - with water and soap - more than usual and take multi vitamins and minerals.

Your stats are mostly wrong. The one that is sort of accurate is that 1/5 of us will get it... 20%... that's the low end of figures with many saying as high as 60% but lets go with your 20%. The rest of the numbers are just wrong. 14% of cases require hospitalization. 5% of total cases require an ICU and a ventilator. 1% are dying (higher in countries where hospitals have been overrun like Italy where it is 3-4%). Let's take 20% of the US population... that's 65.5 million that will have it in a year... 9.2 million will be hospitalized and 655,000 will die. That's the US alone and again assumes only 1/5 will get it. That's using all the CDC and WHO's latest numbers. We only have 350,000 open hospital beds nationwide for the 9.2 million also, when the hospitals get overrun the mortality rate worldwide climbs from 1 to 3-4+% so it can get worse.

[Denti]

Heard the official advise in germany, where testing is easy to come by and, as the originator of the most widely used test, has been available quite early. The health institute (Robert-Koch-Institute) expects that around 60 to 70% of the population will be infected as long as no vaccination is available as there is no immunity against it and that is the figure needed for herd immunity. That said, quite a large number of the infected will not display any symptoms, therefore will usually not be tested, generating quite a large hidden number of infected and spreading persons. Of those positively tested around 20% will develop into a severe case. Although germany has quite a large number of ICU beds available, current guidelines are there to flatten the curve and spread the bulk of the severe cases over a longer time (but a lower number at any given time). That said, due to its federal structure central government has only limited powers to enforce any of the advise, it has to be put into action within any of the states individually.

[ehwatezedoing]

As bad news arrive everyday , almost every hour now and the endemic peak still weeks or months away , who is strong enough to overcome the storm and how our industry will look like 6 moths from now?
Not only crews and airlines but our whole industry .
For instance with Boeing share price around 150 USD ,today a drop of 70% in a few months, can the commercial division survive ?
(My bold on the quote)
ATC Watcher's topic is about the airlines industry, not about human death rate stats hamster wheel...
There is already a pretty long topic about it on Jetblast.

[568]

FACT - Businesses everywhere, particularly airlines, still managing to sell their services and products - sale goes through credit card and it's not coming back from the banks. All cost, no income. The economic death spiral starts - we should have jailed all of them in 2008.

Jail wasn't good enough for those w**kers!

[SINGAPURCANAC]

Who will survive this and be here in 6 months ?
I do not know how, but among survival ones will be Alitalia.

[ATC Watcher]

(My bold on the quote)
ATC Watcher's topic is about the airlines industry, not about human death rate stats hamster wheel...
There is already a pretty long topic about it on Jetblast.
Thanks ,ehwatezedoing , exactly . Maybe my thread title was poorly phrased as when I mean "survive" I mean who will still be there with a job in 6 months , and which /how aviation business will overcome the next 6 months.
If we want to discuss statistics , plenty of web sites giving us that .
Singapurcanac : among survival ones will be Alitalia.
I like your sense of humor , but you probably are right ,they are likely to get massive State aid and survive us all. You have to admire Italians sense of resilience .:E.

[RatherBeFlying]

Heard the official advise in germany, where testing is easy to come by and, as the originator of the most widely used test, has been available quite early. The health institute (Robert-Koch-Institute) expects that around 60 to 70% of the population will be infected as long as no vaccination is available as there is no immunity against it and that is the figure needed for herd immunity. That said, quite a large number of the infected will not display any symptoms, therefore will usually not be tested, generating quite a large hidden number of infected and spreading persons. Of those positively tested around 20% will develop into a severe case. Denti's talking epidemiology:ok:

Covid19 spreads like the common cold; so, a strong probability just about all of us will be exposed to it over the next few years. Identified cases tend to be the severe ones, but at least that denominator (positive tests) is known. Silent infections are likely a much larger denominator that we don't really know at present.

As for a vaccine, they've been trying for many decades to develop one against a fellow coronavirus, the common cold.

[Superpilot]

Does anyone know what's happening at Air France? Traditionally, an exceptionally secure and strong workforce.

[Beausoleil]

This is what bothers me about the herd immunity plan.

Suppose the UK has 10,000 ICU beds. Suppose each person with corona virus who needs one takes up 5 days.

Then there can be 2000 new ICU admissions per day.

If the fraction of people with the virus who end up needing an ICU bed is 5%, that means the infection rate has to be kept below 40,000 per day.

To get to herd immunity in the UK, 60% of people have to get the virus, around 40 million people.

To do this without overwhelming the NHS then takes 1000 days, or roughly three years.

But the idea is to get herd immunity in place by the Autumn.

[Falling_Penguin]

This thread should be taken as a prime example of restricting ourselves to what we do best, surreptitiously farting during night flights and moaning about house prices, audi drivers and our awful rosters.

[FullWings]

If/when we get to the point that a large proportion of people have had it and been asymptomatic/recovered/died, there won’t be a need to restrict travel as it’ll be everywhere. It’ll need something to kick-start aviation again, like after 9/11...

[rotorwills]

No - the USA is far behind.

The UK has consciously chosen to take a somewhat different approach: actually listening to the scientists rather than worrying about any forthcoming elections. They accept that people will die, but they also accept that most people will be exposed to the virus at some point soon, and actually want that to happen so that they get to the point of "herd immunity" and the risk of a second wave of infections is much reduced. The essence of the UK's strategy is to curtail people's quality of life and economic activity as little as possible whilst trying to manage levels to the point where the NHS is stressed, but not overwhelmed.

Personally, I approve, and shall Keep Calm and Carry On.

oh dear, manage the NHS stress levels, right at this moment there are no ICU availability in the north of England. Well that was around 16.30. The NHS which is one of the very best services in the world is totally stressed now never mind any additional demand. Realistically please expect, major mortality rates in the UK. We all on here are worried and so concerned with our business appear to disregard the negative effects upon the population of significant deaths, that are inevitable.

[Denti]

The NHS which is one of the very best services in the world is totally stressed now never mind any additional demand. Realistically please expect, major mortality rates in the UK. We all on here are worried and so concerned with our business appear to disregard the negative effects upon the population of significant deaths, that are inevitable.

The NHS is a great service, however after 10 years of austerity and chronic underfunding, not in a good shape. Compared to other countries in Europe the number of ICU beds per 100.000 people, while varying per region of course, is even on an average level extremely low. The UK has 6.6, France 9.7, Italy (!) 12.5 and Germany 29.2. Currently the number of cases in the UK are still very low, once it starts to spread in earnest, it will be very interesting indeed.

[zed3]

I seem to remember, possibly in Tony B'Liar's time that the number of active hospital beds were reduced to improve the NHS. Something to do with management efficiency. Does anyone else remember this? I lived in Europe then but certain I have the correct thread... in hope... having lost it now.

[Jabberwocky82]

This thread should be taken as a prime example of restricting ourselves to what we do best, surreptitiously farting during night flights and moaning about house prices, audi drivers and our awful rosters.

The most truthful reply in this thread. But then again, this place is no different to the rest of the internet, just like the non-millennial are no different to the millennials...

[dobby88]

Look, guys, testing is only being used to advise clinical procedures. It's not being done for statistical purposes - they're not out to test the mild cases! Only the potentially problematic ones, so that it can inform care decisions. The real mortality is found in China & South Korea, who have gotten over the curve and have started testing mild ones. They too had massive CFRs in the 20s & 10s % initially, until they could shift focus from triaging. 1% is bad enough, we don't need this fear-mongering. Once the statistical models will catch up in Italy, I am sure we will see the mortality rate head south of 3%, or potentially lower. Measuring only 'closed' cases is just as flawed as measuring open ones. We can only use the data from complete outbreaks and anyone trying otherwise is just trying to do PhD level statistics with pub logic.

Focus on your flying. Save up money. Make back up plans if you're about to be made redundant. Everyone take a deep breath, relax, look after your loved ones and hope this bug doesn't rear it's head again in the near future.

[dobby88]

This thread should be taken as a prime example of restricting ourselves to what we do best, surreptitiously farting during night flights and moaning about house prices, audi drivers and our awful rosters.

Real LPT is always in the comments. Couldn't have put it better myself. This comment should be stickied at the top of every page on this bloody forum

[JanetFlight]

To our grandfathers they asked them to go to war...to us they only ask to sit at our home sofa!

Thinks about it please...Peace!

[poppiholla]

As bad news arrive everyday , almost every hour now and the endemic peak still weeks or months away , who is strong enough to overcome the storm and how our industry will look like 6 moths from now?
Not only crews and airlines but our whole industry .
For instance with Boeing share price around 150 USD ,today a drop of 70% in a few months, can the commercial division survive ?

good grief, why would you want anyone to comment on who will still be in business or not ?

(ps it's 'epidemic' not 'endemic')

[Loose rivets]

Television today: 100 times more likely to die from Corona virus than ordinary flue.

Because I spend hours of every day reading science, or Boeing, empiricism is a word I've had drummed into me. I can find no such ratio tonight, but I've an uncomfortable feeling that the conversion to pneumonia has a dangerously high ratio.

As posted on the Filter thread, I became very angry with the press hijacking a minister by crowding his progress. I can hear the cries of 'Oh, badly played. Or, beastly bad show.' but on behalf of the politician, I really wanted to silence that screaming moron with an action that would have stopped her spraying a potentially lethal mist at me. I suppose thrusting her microphone in her mouth would be considered bad form.

https://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/630300-coved-19-recirculation-fans-2.html#post10711985

Slowly, slowly I'm beginning to feel I'm not the only one that puts airborne particles at the top of the list of infection communication - by a long mile.

[ILS27LEFT]

The North of Italy has got one of the best NHS systems in the world (it is the opposite in the South), this is in addition to having one of the highest number of intensive care beds vs 100K of population compared to the rest of the world. This is a serious and very worrying sign of what COVID-19 can do in any other country. The biggest problem now is the impact that COVID-19 will have on any travel related business as global travel will soon be completely banned as we have never seen it before. Airlines, Hotels, Travel Companies, Events Companies, etc will have zero cash flow imminently as transactions have collapsed by a magnitude that has never been seen before. Millions of jobs will be lost as other industries will collapse due to the absence of travel, e.g. airline manufacturers will also temporarily close down, whilst national airlines will have to be nationalized again,all other airlines will disappear. If governments will not step in quickly to support the millions of people losing their jobs then we will also see civil unrest and riots. This prediction seems probably unreal now however it is the first time in my life that I genuinely believe this could be the 3rd WW we have all been waiting for. This time is really scary. Good luck to all of us. The economic collapse is as scary as the massive loss of lives that COVID-19 will cause. Covid-19-->Health emergency/Pandemic-->Banned Global travel-->Travel related businesses collapsing--->Civil unrest. This prediction is not pure pessimism. Governments will have to inject lots of cash to save travel related businesses. Central banks can just produce unlimited e-Money and transfer to Companies, let's hope they will start asap to avoid chaos. So who will survive in 6 months? Only those helped by the Governments, all the others will disappear.

[armchairpilot94116]

My two cents::

1. Containment works to slow the virus as is happening now in China, Taiwan, Singapore and a few other places.
2. Containment will slow the virus in Italy too, even if that doesn't appear to be the case today.
3. Ultimately the virus may affect quite a lot of people worldwide. But we will overcome. I am hoping what they say that about 80pct of people infected will suffer not much more than a bad cold and not require hospital treatment. The 20pct who do require hospitalization, unfortunately not all of these (depending on available care) will make it.
4. The greater tragedy and danger will be social unrest resulting in lack of food, and water . Also very important lack of income.

We should contain the virus as much as we can in a controlled manner as much as possible, but when a large number of people have gotten sick and containment is no longer an option, we should all get back to work doing what we do and keep the wheels turning on Society. The wheels must turn or else people will starve. We can make it. I am confident we will survive this once in a hundred year viral crisis, we need to remain strong.

[Wizofoz]

You have an extra zero in there. .1% to 3.4% is 34x.

True, well caught.

[RexBanner]

If/when we get to the point that a large proportion of people have had it and been asymptomatic/recovered/died, there won’t be a need to restrict travel as it’ll be everywhere. It’ll need something to kick-start aviation again, like after 9/11...

I’ve seen this compared to 9/11 a lot but in terms of the bounce back there will (provided people still have their jobs -big question) be a lot of pent up demand. Don’t forget that in 2001 people had just watched a commercial airliner plough deliberately into a skyscraper in New York, psychologically horrifying as it was just unimaginable at that time. People were physically scared of getting on an aircraft because of these images’ effect on the psyche. Now the fear is largely confined to not being able to get back from their destinations if a quarantine/lockdown is put in place. If those have been lifted then there’s not much to actually dissuade people from starting to travel again aside from the money in their wallet which, as I said earlier, is the big factor here.

[cats_five]

Denti's talking epidemiology:ok:

Covid19 spreads like the common cold; so, a strong probability just about all of us will be exposed to it over the next few years. Identified cases tend to be the severe ones, but at least that denominator (positive tests) is known. Silent infections are likely a much larger denominator that we don't really know at present.

As for a vaccine, they've been trying for many decades to develop one against a fellow coronavirus, the common cold.

Yes some colds are caused by coronaviruses, but most are caused by rhinoviruses.

[Widger]

Europe will go on lockdown, the UK will finally wake up and do the same and then the USA will be the epicentre of the outbreak and the EU will ban flights from the USA.

[DHC4]

Welcome to the new world of selfish introspective #MeToo victim playing millennials.
We survived SARs and a number of world wars, but for the new generation when its all about them and they perceive the odds against them, then they just collapse like a house of cards.
May I suggest a couple of things:
- Turn off your phone.
- Sell your TV.
- Look at the people around you for what they are.
Then in six months when your still alive and wasting precious oxygen, consider making an apology for being a selfish pri!ck (if it's within your capability).

ATC Watcher, I respect most of your posts but I feel this time you are listening to the idiot brigade that now run our media and finance. In time you will see what I see.

Can I have one bucket of sand please.

[ATC Watcher]

I’ve seen this compared to 9/11 a lot but in terms of the bounce back there will (provided people still have their jobs -big question) be a lot of pent up demand. Don’t forget that in 2001 people had just watched a commercial airliner plough deliberately into a skyscraper in New York, psychologically horrifying as it was just unimaginable at that time. People were physically scared of getting on an aircraft because of these images’ effect on the psyche. Now the fear is largely confined to not being able to get back from their destinations if a quarantine/lockdown is put in place. If those have been lifted then there’s not much to actually dissuade people from starting to travel again aside from the money in their wallet which, as I said earlier, is the big factor here.

People refer to 2001 9/11 because their remember it . I am ( unfortunately) old enough to remember the 1973-74 oil embargo crisis , and this is much more similar .

It started with a crash of the stock exchange following an oil embargo to certain countries, Netherlands was one of them and this is where I was living at the time . Flights were banned , aircraft grounded, , cars prohibited to drive on Sundays , heating oil and electricity was rationed with tickets, and emergency powers given to Governments to impose prison sentences to citizens not following the new rules.. Social unrest followed , government fell and fortunately it stopped right in time to avoid complete chaos The whole story you can read on Internet..
Travel bans looks great on TV to appease public opinion but are creating far more issues than what they are suppose to achieve. the virus is already present everywhere it does not stop at the borders.,But our Industry is the first one that is hit by those bans
.
As the Chinese A350 bringing expertise and respirators to Italy showed yesterday , Aviation is not spreading the virus , it will be essential to fight it too...so let's keep it up while it still can..

[waco]

Well this makes a change. Everything is normally the fault of crewing and ops!

[lilpilot]

As bad news arrive everyday , almost every hour now and the endemic peak still weeks or months away , who is strong enough to overcome the storm and how our industry will look like 6 moths from now?
Not only crews and airlines but our whole industry .
For instance with Boeing share price around 150 USD ,today a drop of 70% in a few months, can the commercial division survive ?


Cargo ops, unscheduled ops and of course military ops will survive.

The airline sector completely missed its mark in January.

[b1lanc]

Now the fear is largely confined to not being able to get back from their destinations if a quarantine/lockdown is put in place.
Well, sad to say the fear here is not being able to buy food. You can't find meat, vegetables, bread, milk, toilet paper, or even SPAM in any store. Doesn't seem to be stopping either and the stores can't re-stock fast enough.

[lomapaseo]

Well, sad to say the fear here is not being able to buy food. You can't find meat, vegetables, bread, milk, toilet paper, or even SPAM in any store. Doesn't seem to be stopping either and the stores can't re-stock fast enough.

Our stores are going to short hours to allow them time to restock the. empty shelves. Trucks with new supplies in the pipe line are on the way from warehouses. Eventually the stores will be over-supplied and the stuff like toilet paper will go on sale making the idiots who stockpiled think more deeply about their decision making.

Maybe the meat and dairy products they scooped up in full carriages will spoil before they make a run on refrigerators.

Now making a run on booze I can understand since we are advised to stay by ourselves in our own rooms

[oceancrosser]

Flights from UK and Ireland to USA suspended from midnight EDT Monday night (March 16), just announced by Mike Pence on CNN.

[armchairpilot94116]

Great article !!

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

[ATC Watcher]

Great article !!
not great , scary ! If half of what this guy says happens , it will be not only be the aviation sector that collapses, but entire States...:hmm:

[armchairpilot94116]

Yeah I know. I don't mean Great as in Great news obviously, I meant Great as in Great article. the guy seems to have a credible argument.
I am going with the thought that "most all of us will be fine, nothing more than a cold" and the belief that "we should all function as normal, other than washing hands and social distancing to buy time"

My boss says "its mankind against the virus..only one will win"

I am betting on Mankind. and I hope that this event brings us all closer together as a human race and understand that we are all vulnerable and we should put aside our differences on many things as much as we can.

This virus we will overcome... The next one, the one virologists call X is the one to fear, the one where the kill rate could be as high as 70pct and be just as infectious as this one.

Mankind needs to come together and kumbaya because one day .....

[nolimitholdem]

Yeah I know. I don't mean Great as in Great news obviously, I meant Great as in Great article. the guy seems to have a credible argument.
I am going with the thought that "most all of us will be fine, nothing more than a cold" and the belief that "we should all function as normal, other than washing hands and social distancing to buy time"

My boss says "its mankind against the virus..only one will win"

I am betting on Mankind. and I hope that this event brings us all closer together as a human race and understand that we are all vulnerable and we should put aside our differences on many things as much as we can.

This virus we will overcome... The next one, the one virologists call X is the one to fear, the one where the kill rate could be as high as 70pct and be just as infectious as this one.

Mankind needs to come together and kumbaya because one day .....



I like a good doomsday scenario as much as the next guy, but a virus with the CFR you describe wouldn't be that effective at spreading as it would kill its host too fast.

Paradoxically, one large reason Covid-19 is tough to fight is precisely because it's not as deadly as previous ones like SARS and MERS, which were more easy to identify cluster outbreaks of and thus contain because - so many people died so fast.

But to be on the safe side, make sure the reflective shiny side of the tinfoil is on the outside of your hat, dull side in.

[armchairpilot94116]

Indeed! I shall continue to look for wayward asteroids as well with that hat on ! I am upbeat about us defeating this virus though.

.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-22/coronavirus-may-be-the-disease-x-health-agency-warned-about

[Loose rivets]

We survived SARs and a number of world wars, but for the new generation when its all about them and they perceive the odds against them, then they just collapse like a house of cards.

Yep, 50 million of them ~1919


If you haven't done so after my last emotional outpouring, please take time to read this young nurse's story on this dedicated site.* It spells out the bravery of the time, an era when they must have started to know the extreme danger they were in but carried on nursing anyway. We know so much more now but the enemy is subtle. It has evolved. It is designed to kill us, it has no other purpose - other than its skilled determination to modify itself and reproduce.

*https://heatonhistorygroup.org/2016/10/02/kate-elizabeth-ogg-remembered/

I used to take Gaia and the Earth goddess with a pinch of salt. Fun, but no real science involved. How wrong I was. Some of the Earth's defences equal the realms of science fiction. It's as though Homo sapiens have really T'd off its defence systems and something is working hard to destroy the temporarily successful species. Temporary is measured in hundreds of thousands of years.

Nonsense? Now that carbon dating is so breathtakingly accurate, we hope, we find that our species has wiped out the advanced species, along with the flora and fauna of easily definable continents, like say, Madagascar. We have only the remnants of at least six other Human species. The point? Whether or not a virus is a living entity is an almost philosophical question. Most mechanisms with this power have a purpose. To analyse what's going on takes us into theological and metaphysical argument. Our, and other nations' wellbeing is being affected by a sub-microscopic quasi-life form. Sir Fred Hoyle beat a lone drum about these entities for a lot of his life. Right now, some of his ideas are making me feel very uncertain about our future.

It's perhaps comforting we're seeing a united, international, fight against this adversity. In itself, an oddly science fiction scenario.

[b1lanc]

Yep, 50 million of them ~1919


This was an interesting event which started in 1918 when the US began shipping soldiers overseas. The gov't even then warned people not to congregate in large crowds. Interesting article below. TV show on last week - towns that heeded the warning just west of Philly have a very low mortality rate.

You simply never know. The Spanish flu cut down healthy people equally.

https://www.phillyvoice.com/100-years-ago-spanish-flu-philadelphia-killed-thousands-influenza-epidemic-libery-loan-parade/

[etudiant]

The Italian reports indicate that the virus is dreadfully dangerous to older people, but fairly benign for people under 50, with flu like death rates of around 0.2% .for the younger, but up to 15% for those over 80.
That suggests that it is pointless to thrash the global economy via social shutdowns when a focus on protecting the old until a vaccine is available would be more effective at much lower human cost.

[cdtaylor_nats]

By the end of the year assorted governments will be hailing the fact they made their Green targets.

[marchino61]

The Italian reports indicate that the virus is dreadfully dangerous to older people, but fairly benign for people under 50, with flu like death rates of around 0.2% .for the younger, but up to 15% for those over 80.
That suggests that it is pointless to thrash the global economy via social shutdowns when a focus on protecting the old until a vaccine is available would be more effective at much lower human cost.

But one of the reasons it is so deadly for older people in Italy is that they are often denied access to intensive care units because they are full.Younger patients get priority.

[Longtimer]

But one of the reasons it is so deadly for older people in Italy is that they are often denied access to intensive care units because they are full.Younger patients get priority.
As it should be, it is called triage. I am over 75 and have no problem with this action/decision

[lomapaseo]

But one of the reasons it is so deadly for older people in Italy is that they are often denied access to intensive care units because they are full.Younger patients get priority.

I'd like to see some support for that statement.

Sure over here it's natural that typical triage processes tend to treat the younger crowd of gun shot wounds stabbings and nail-gun shootings before coughs, snot noses and falls. OTOH I watched and/or participated in old foks with possible strokes and heart attacks going to the front of the queue

[cappt]

Great article !!

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

By a great story teller with zero expertise in pandemics, statistics, or public health!
https://wikiherald.com/tomas-pueyo-bio-wiki/

[Loose rivets]

Philly. I was unaware of that. What a frightening read. However, the strain seems to have been different. (to contemporaneous strains) Why the young were so vulnerable is seemingly still a mystery.

"No soldier on the field of war battle could be any more courageous. Nor are the nurses on the front one whit more heroines than these girls." – William G. McAllister, superintendent of Philadelphia General Hospital, to the Evening Public Ledger

I'm not quite sure why I'm so emotional about Kate Elizabeth, perhaps because she died just months before my grandfather, both by pneumonia. CSM Rathborne was gung-ho when in Flanders in 1915. A letter home was so inspiring and eloquent that the local press published it. Like a lot of front-line combatants, his vulnerability to lung infection was probably due to having being gassed.

[towrope]

In my years of constant flying to & from Asia (in the back of the plane) I befriended a number of crew over time. I still keep in touch with a few and worry about their health and financial future. In the US it's not uncommon for people to set up a GoFundMe page for crushing medical debt and I would not hesitate to chip in to help a PPL or FA who finds themselves on the brink due to evaporating job or infection.

[pattern_is_full]

Why the young were so vulnerable is seemingly still a mystery.

One theory you already suggest - debilitation by gassing (or trench life in general).

Another I've seen is that the particular 1918 strain induced immune-system "storms" that themselves caused body damage - a healthy young immune system could actually be a liability. cf: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_release_syndrome

These weren't really recognized and studied until transplants (and immune reactions to them) became common more than half a century later.

[marchino61]

I'd like to see some support for that statement.

Sure over here it's natural that typical triage processes tend to treat the younger crowd of gun shot wounds stabbings and nail-gun shootings before coughs, snot noses and falls. OTOH I watched and/or participated in old foks with possible strokes and heart attacks going to the front of the queue

They go to the front of the queue if there are facilities to treat them. Normally, there are enough ICU beds for everyone who needs one.

In Italy now, there are not enough ICU beds to go around. So what do you do? Who do you treat and who do you leave to possibly die?

[nonsense]

I like a good doomsday scenario as much as the next guy, but a virus with the CFR you describe wouldn't be that effective at spreading as it would kill its host too fast.

Case fatality rate is not a measure of how fast a virus kills, but of how many it kills.

In the first decades of AIDS, before effective treatments were developed, the CFR was 100%, with a significant symptom free infectious period. The only thing that saved us was that it was slow, and in communities where it was not slow (gay men, sub saharan Africa), it has indeed been a near doomsday scenario.

The One nightmare scenario is an easily transmitted respiratory disease with a significant symptom free infectious period (days is long enough, weeks or months far worse), which then kills most or all cases.

It doesn't really matter how quickly it kills once it has revealed itself, just that it spreads well while it is undetected and it kills lots of people.

Covid 19 spreads well while it is undetected, but appears to have a short symptom free infectious period, making short term isolation a viable preventative measure.
While Covid 19 is relatively harmless to young people, it is very dangerous for older people.
It's most of the way to the nightmare scenario I've described, and it's only luck that it doesn't kill say 20% or 90% of all infected, within say six months...
(How do we know it doesn't?)

[cattletruck]

I was caught in the thick of it during SARS (as were many others on here). We were scanned, measured, etc and were just short of having a thermometer shoved up our bums during all our airport movements. Panic set in with the media, but most of us lesser mortals who needed to get on with things just heeded the advice, took the necessary precautions as best as one could, and lived to tell the tale.

To put this reaper into perspective. The current death toll from coronavirus currently stands at 5830 over a 1.5 month period. The average annual death toll from tobacco stands at 8 million (https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/tobacco).

Many industries have been hit extremely hard due to the sudden panic by the general public from hearing of some new threat, a panic further induced from the self interest groups like finance and the media, a panic that solves absolutely nothing when sound advice to deal with the problem is already available.

Can I have one bucket of sand please.
Perhaps you're being too greedy in hoarding your own supply of the stuff....

[exfocx]

733driver,

Not sure I follow your reasoning on the numbers! Lets say you have 100 units of people (actual numbers don't matter) and the known infection rate is 60%, therefore 60 units of people will be infected. Lets say the mortality rate is 5% of those KNOWN to be infected, so therefore 3 units of people will die. Now if the ACTUAL infection rate is 100% (40 units who are infected but do not test +ve) the same number of units will die (i.e. 3 units), but instead of the mortality rate being 5%, it will be 3%, BUT THE SAME NUMBER OF PEOPLE WILL DIE!

The only thing that changes in your scenario is the % numbers, actual dead, no change!

[StAn gelo]

In the UK, our government has not even addressed the subject of panic buying and stock piling food. They should be out there with a broadcast telling people not to do it. It's going to get worse if they don't.

I overheard a shop assistant in the local Asda saying that some people were even buying large American style fridge/freezers and chest freezers in order to stockpile as much food as possible.

[dr_tbd]

Long time lurker, first time poster. I'm a consultant anaesthetist with some aeromed experience. I also work with a pilot delivering human factors training in healthcare. I have therefore got some experience of hw you think, not a lot, but some.

Most people in healthcare are extremely worried about this. We are no doing a lot of sim training in doffing and donning of our personal protective equipment and practising practical procedures whilst fully PPEd. There is unprecedented planning. there are still pockets of complacency but I have never seen anything like this in my career (over 15 years since medical school). I was at a major london hospital for 7/7. I saw how quickly we created space but that was 1000 people injured. This is on a scale unheard of in modern times. This is an order of magnitude more serious. And it is a tidal wave rather than a big bang. It is ging to be 3-4 months of work like nothing I have ever seen before.

for the vast majority of you this will be nothing more than the flu. And those who say 'it's just flu' will feel vindicated. But for a significant minority this is going to be a teminal event. Mostly those over 75. We are tripling our ICU capacity, and even that seems optimistic. 60-70 beds for a population of 400-500k. Those that stay on ICU will do so for weeks. Assuming we can turn the ICU over twice in 2 months that means we can accommodate about 140 patients. 4000-5000 infections. So even tripling ICU capacity we can afford for about 1% of the population to get infected. China flew in thousands of doctors and built icu only hospitals. That's how they dealt with it. If we allow this to surge and we suddenly get 10000 cases in our catchment area, we are potentially looking for 500-1000 ICU beds. Even in Hubei it only got to 0.1% of the population. It seems very odd to me to let this run through the population

I think this has been handled very badly by the government. They have lacked clarity and resolve and let panic set in. As pointed out above, there are large areas of deprivation in the UK and they will suffer on two fronts the first being that they will struggle to self isolate based on hand to mouth weekly wages or gig economy 'self emplyment'. and the second is that we know deprivation is a poor prognosis for health outcomes anyway.

I think the travel bans are not helpful, they are leaving large numbers of people stranded all over the world but I do think that social distancing and shutting down of congregations of people across the world is sensible. The hospitality, travel and recreation sectors will suffer. The best thing they can do is make it as easy as possible for people to rebook and retain the goodwill of the customers who through no fault of their own have has to cancel.

We were all looking at Brexit as the economic disaster and this black swan flew in out of nowhere.

I have no understanding of 99.9% of what you all do ion here, but I do love reading your dissections of incidents. 99% of you will hopefully have little experience of ICU, but I a extremely fearful that many many people are about to get familiar with it.

Stay safe, stay sensible, encourage your elderly friends and relatives to stay at home, check on them by phone / skype. Deliver stuff to them if you can. Wash your hands.

[nonsense]

Covid 19 ... it's only luck that it doesn't kill say 20% or 90% of all infected, within say six months...
(How do we know it doesn't?)

Quote:
As much remains unknown about the virus, cases of reinfection have health experts worried that the illness could remain dormant after an apparent recovery. (https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/484942-japan-confirms-first-case-of-person-reinfected)
“Once you have the infection, it could remain dormant with minimal symptoms,” Philip Tierno Jr., professor of microbiology and pathology at New York University, told Reuters.
“And then you can get an exacerbation if it finds its way into the lungs,” he said.

[Mascot PPL]

dr_tbd

Great post, couldn't agree more.

Don't know if you've seen it already but a data science prof at UCL in london has been publishing some good data on progression rates in various countries to show what could be coming in the near future for those just starting to see in country transmissions e.g. UK is about 14 days behind Italy. He's not a epidemic expert but the data appears robust and the analysis seems logical to me.

Worth checking it out - COVID 19 Growth Rate (http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/)

Just returned to the UK after 4 weeks in OZ, symptom free but me and my wife are self isolating for 2 weeks as it feels the right thing to do.

This too shall pass....

[ATC Watcher]

dr_tbd ; Respect , for a first post . Thanks for sharing your views on this .
There is middle ground between : this a just the flu , it will pass , ( which unfortunately I still hear around me ) and putting yourself in full quarantine . It is called social distancing , which is what I believe everyone should do asap.
Of course countries whose population is disciplined by nature or by force will do better than Latin-based open cultures ( e.g Italy, Spain ,France etc.. ) but at one point or another we have all to get our act together.

[covec]

First Class post, Doc! (From a lowly Instructor).

Rumour that the UK may enforce over 70s to self-isolate for up to 4 months in order to protect ICU beds for younger cases. And for the Army to guard Hospitals and Supermarkets.

[Denti]

dr_tbd

Great post, couldn't agree more.

Don't know if you've seen it already but a data science prof at UCL in london has been publishing some good data on progression rates in various countries to show what could be coming in the near future for those just starting to see in country transmissions e.g. UK is about 14 days behind Italy. He's not a epidemic expert but the data appears robust and the analysis seems logical to me.

Worth checking it out - COVID 19 Growth Rate (http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/)

Interesting graphs. He answers some of the questions below, but does not really do a good job on the huge difference in the availability of testing and how testing is employed. It would be interesting to get the confirmed cases vs. confirmed covid-19 deaths taken into account, as there seems to be a huge difference. Now, deaths of course do lag cases, but the huge difference points towards insufficient testing in many regions.
For example testing is widely available in germany for example, in some regions including drive-in-testing for everybody who wants to get tested. Which explains, to a point the, number of cases which might be much closer to the real number of total cases than in countries where testing is limited or not available at large scale. This afternoon the number of confirmed cases stands at 5072 with 10 confirmed covid-19 deaths in germany, whereas the latest number for the UK (which is from yesterday morning) stands at 1140 cases and 21 deaths. There is clearly a huge divide there in the ratio between deaths and cases. Of course, if you want to spread misinformation you could now say that you are much more likely to get covid-19 in germany, but are much more likely to die from it in the UK. Both is simply not true at all, as both health systems work very differently and react very differently to the crisis, both in testing, public and political reaction and of course publicly available information.

[Peter H]

>Why the young were so vulnerable is seemingly still a mystery.
One theory you already suggest - debilitation by gassing (or trench life in general).
Another I've seen is that the particular 1918 strain induced immune-system "storms" that themselves caused body damage - a healthy young immune system could actually be a liability. cf: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_release_syndrome
These weren't really recognized and studied until transplants (and immune reactions to them) became common more than half a century later.

I used to believe the second theory. Which led me to expect that covid-19 didn't involve "cytokine storms" as it hit the oldest hardest. Turns out that
this isn't the case, and "cytokine storms" seem to be heavily involved in cov-19 deaths.

Weeks ago I looked up some Spanish flu references and happened across a plausible-sounding theory that the elderly were protected by lingering immunity
from an earlier flu epidemic. Similar strains hadn't occurred for some time, hence the young didn't have this partial immunity.

Article
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/276060
Why was 1918 flu pandemic so deadly? Research offers new clue

Paper abstract
https://www.pnas.org/content/111/22/8107.short
Genesis and pathogenesis of the 1918 pandemic H1N1 influenza A virus

Paper pdf
https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/111/22/8107.full.pdf
Genesis and pathogenesis of the 1918 pandemic H1N1 influenza A virus

[b1lanc]

dr_tbd ; Respect , for a first post . Thanks for sharing your views on this .
There is middle ground between : this a just the flu , it will pass , ( which unfortunately I still hear around me ) and putting yourself in full quarantine . It is called social distancing , which is what I believe everyone should do asap.
Of course countries whose population is disciplined by nature or by force will do better than Latin-based open cultures ( e.g Italy, Spain ,France etc.. ) but at one point or another we have all to get our act together.
Social distancing has been implemented significantly in New England and I believe it's intent is to buy time and slow the spread. Hospitals are erecting temporary shelters for initial triage and also increasing staff, schools are closed, businesses are teleworking, church services cancelled, prohibition of large gatherings over 200 for any venue, state house and senate shut down. You can't walk into a police station to file any complaint. Store shelves are empty (including thermometers) and staple foods that will keep for awhile.

What I do see as a potential hole is that we have now started prime seasonal allergy season and given the awareness of Covid, the number of people headed for medical help not knowing is going to increase which could provide an unanticipated vector.

[Mascot PPL]

Denti

Agree, but it's very hard to get any info on the level of testing being done in each country and the way the test group is being selected.

The exemplar for testing is South Korea who have one of the lowest growth rates of all the "early in country transmission" countries and do roughly 10,000 tests a day and quarantine anyone who tests positive (until recently the TOTAL test count for the US was just over 11,000).

About a year after this all settles there will be some great papers on the things we should have spotted in the data early on but didn't. Right now we're instrument flying on a partial panel at best....

The UCL site was the first one I'd seen that showed some level of "like for like" analysis across countries. Learning should be "If you are N days behind Italy on the curve use those N days aggressively and wisely".

Much as I love my personal freedom I think history is going to show that benign dictatorship is a better model for dealing with pandemics then free market forces...
IMHO - others will have a different take on all this.

[SamYeager]

Well this is all very interesting and I certainly have my own views on what may transpire but I thought this thread was supposed to be about which airlines were going to go to the wall?

[b1lanc]

FYSA, there is a bogus site replicating the JHU map with malware included. See below:Alert Synopsis From HHS.gov:

A malicious website pretending to be the live map for Coronavirus COVID-19
Global Cases by Johns Hopkins University is circulating on the internet
waiting for unwitting internet users to visit the website
(corona-virus-map[dot]com). Visiting the website infects the user with the
AZORult trojan, an information stealing program which can exfiltrate a
variety of sensitive data. It is likely being spread via infected email
attachments, malicious online advertisements, and social engineering.

Furthermore, anyone searching the internet for a Coronavirus map could
unwittingly navigate to this malicious website.

[Mascot PPL]

Well this is all very interesting and I certainly have my own views on what may transpire but I thought this thread was supposed to be about which airlines were going to go to the wall?

Sorry if I went off topic. Asked last week I would have listed some of the more leveraged under performing airlines (most already listed). Right now my answer would be "any airline that doesn't get fully supported by it's government in some substantial manner". Can't see any way that air transport is going to get back to anything like normal during 2020. Not just international carriers, only a matter of weeks/days before inter state flights start to get hit badly in the US?

My opinion only, but IMHO the only guys making money out of commercial aviation in the next 12 months will be some cargo operations and those renting parking space for unused aircraft (and they'll be wanting cash in advance). I hope I'm wrong BTW, I really do, but I don't think I will be....

[ATC Watcher]

to get back to the topic :COPENHAGEN/STOCKHOLM (Reuters) - Airline SAS (SAS.ST (https://uk.reuters.com/companies/SAS.ST)) said it will temporarily halt most of its flights from Monday until conditions for commercial aviation improved.

Travel restrictions and falling demand due to the coronavirus have hammered airlines around the world, forcing them to reduce flights and lay off staff to stay afloat.

SAS said on Sunday it would temporary lay off up to 10,000 employees, or 90% of the airline’s total workforce.

“Demand for flights into, out of, and within Scandinavia has more or less disappeared,” chief executive Rickard Gustafson told a press briefing on Sunday.

“We have to adapt to current circumstances and starting tomorrow, Monday, we will temporary pause a large part of our operations and we will heavily reduce the number of flights in our entire network,” he added.

SAS said it would as far as possible maintain some flights within the next few days to enable people to return home.


That is about what I was afraid of , never expected it would be so fast though ..:(. it says lay off s will last " until conditions for commercial aviation improved." but reading this thread so far , if may take months .

[DaveReidUK]

FYSA, there is a bogus site replicating the JHU map with malware included. See below:Alert Synopsis From HHS.gov:

A malicious website pretending to be the live map for Coronavirus COVID-19
Global Cases by Johns Hopkins University is circulating on the internet
waiting for unwitting internet users to visit the website
(corona-virus-map[dot]com). Visiting the website infects the user with the
AZORult trojan, an information stealing program which can exfiltrate a
variety of sensitive data. It is likely being spread via infected email
attachments, malicious online advertisements, and social engineering.

Furthermore, anyone searching the internet for a Coronavirus map could
unwittingly navigate to this malicious website.

Now deactivated.

[etudiant]

Denti

Agree, but it's very hard to get any info on the level of testing being done in each country and the way the test group is being selected.

The exemplar for testing is South Korea who have one of the lowest growth rates of all the "early in country transmission" countries and do roughly 10,000 tests a day and quarantine anyone who tests positive (until recently the TOTAL test count for the US was just over 11,000).

About a year after this all settles there will be some great papers on the things we should have spotted in the data early on but didn't. Right now we're instrument flying on a partial panel at best....

The UCL site was the first one I'd seen that showed some level of "like for like" analysis across countries. Learning should be "If you are N days behind Italy on the curve use those N days aggressively and wisely".

Much as I love my personal freedom I think history is going to show that benign dictatorship is a better model for dealing with pandemics then free market forces...
IMHO - others will have a different take on all this.

Trouble is that there are not many examples of 'benign dictatorships' leaving town after the crisis has passed. So I think we are best off with the incompetents we've got.

[Mascot PPL]

etudiant

good point....

[covec]

Bit rich of Virgin & BA running to HMG for cash when the same screamed so loudly re Flybe getting cash.

[b1lanc]

to get back to the topic :

That is about what I was afraid of , never expected it would be so fast though ..:(. it says lay off s will last " until conditions for commercial aviation improved." but reading this thread so far , if may take months .
Governor of my state was just on and said the last 6 confirmed cases were a combination of domestic travel and close personal contact. Have to believe domestic travel is going to be on the table at some point.

[Busbert]

Bit rich of Virgin & BA running to HMG for cash when the same screamed so loudly re Flybe getting cash.
I don’t thing Virgin Atlantic had any issue with Flybe getting cash.
The airlines are looking for a line of credit, not free money. The cash flow crunch isn’t being helped by credit card companies playing silly buggers.

[covec]

I don’t thing Virgin Atlantic had any issue with Flybe getting cash.
The airlines are looking for a line of credit, not free money. The cash flow crunch isn’t being helped by credit card companies playing silly buggers.

Sorry: meant Branson's lack of doing anything re Flybe - I believe that he & Delta had a stake there.

Was Flybe looking for a line of credit too though I wonder?

The credit card companies will certainly be getting pestered by customers with cx flights though.

[Andy D]

Great article !!

medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

But the article's author is a 'growth hacker' who has no relevant knowledge when it comes to disease and health so I'd be careful what you read into that

His bio "2 MSc in Engineering. Stanford MBA. Ex-Consultant. Creator of viral applications with >20M users. Currently leading a billion-dollar business @ Course Hero"

[mickjoebill]

As bad news arrive everyday , almost every hour now and the endemic peak still weeks or months away , who is strong enough to overcome the storm and how our industry will look like 6 moths from now?
Not only crews and airlines but our whole industry .
For instance with Boeing share price around 150 USD ,today a drop of 70% in a few months, can the commercial division survive ?

A representative of an Australian airlines body just stated that they expect the Corona effect will be 40% worse than GFC.

mjb

[qwertyuiop]

Which airline will still be here in 6 months? Simple answer, non of them. At least not in any recognisable form. How can BA/Virgin/Easy etc survive when the cash flow dries up. There has to be mass redundancies. It will be a blood bath by the end of the month. As somebody who has spent his life enjoying a career in aviation it is most distressing.

[HeathrowAirport]

I guess I wouldn't be far wrong to say that the only BA flight to exist will be SIN-SYD come end of March.

[Zeffy]

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/as-coronavirus-causes-9-11-type-collapse-in-demand-for-jets-boeing-may-slash-production/


As coronavirus causes 9/11-type collapse in demand for jets, Boeing may slash production
March 15, 2020 at 4:52 pm Updated March 15, 2020 at 5:08 pm

By Dominic Gates
Seattle Times aerospace reporter

The dramatic worldwide collapse in air travel accelerated this weekend as the U.S. expanded its ban on passengers from Europe and other governments enacted their own barriers to slow the spread of the novel coronavirus.

Airline CEOs are comparing the drop in traffic to the aftermath of the 9/11 terror attacks in 2001 — when Boeing reduced production from 527 jets in 2001 to just 281 jets two years later. In less than three years following the attacks, Boeing cut 27,000 jobs in Washington state.

Like then, Boeing now faces a stark near-term decision on whether it must slash jet production. That could again spell substantial local layoffs, which until now — even with its 737 MAX production already halted — Boeing has avoided.

Boeing is the largest private employer in Washington state, with about 72,000 employees here. Most of those work on Commercial Airplanes and all those jobs are at risk of at least temporary suspension. Any cuts to that workforce would reverberate sharply throughout the local economy, and its impacts likewise would be felt on Boeing’s global supply chain.

With the Renton narrowbody jet plant already shut down since January because of the extended grounding of the 737 MAX, any cut to or suspension of production in Everett too would mean Boeing’s parts plants in Auburn and Frederickson have virtually no assembly lines to feed, and so they would also likely have to cut or stop work.

The outbreak of coronavirus within Boeing employee ranks — six confirmed cases at the Everett plant and one at the local headquarters in Longacres, with two possible cases from Auburn — may supply another reason for a full-scale temporary halt to production.

A top Boeing executive — speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the situation — said Sunday that contingency planning at the highest levels of the company is still focused on avoiding layoffs so as to enable the business to recover quickly once the virus emergency passes.

He said Boeing’s leadership is unlikely to announce a firm plan until later in the week, but that for now “the conversation here is leaning even more toward doing everything we can to protect employees.”

“We’ll need them to be back in the saddle quickly when this thing passes over,” he said, adding that “nothing is firm at this time.”


Airline meltdown

Underlying Boeing’s dilemma is the wrenching drama playing out among U.S. and global airlines.

On Friday, Delta Air Lines said it would cut capacity by 40 percent in the next few months, park up to 300 aircraft and defer new jet deliveries. Delta’s CEO Ed Bastian said it was the largest capacity reduction in Delta’s history, including after the 9/11 attacks.

On Saturday, American Airlines announced it will cut 75% of its international flights through May 6 and cut domestic flights by 30% by May. American will ground 135 out of its fleet of 149 widebody jets.

The impact from coronavirus abroad is even worse: To ensure “the survival of British Airways,” that airline’s CEO Alex Cruz told employees Friday that jobs will be cut “perhaps for a short period, perhaps longer-term.”

Low-cost carrier Norwegian, a big 737 MAX and 787 customer, has laid off half its 11,000 employees, and the CEO told the Norwegian government it has “weeks not months” to avert bankruptcy.

According to Swiss airline intelligence provider ch-aviation, Korean Air has grounded about 100 of its 145 passenger jets and airline President Woo Kee-hong told employees in an internal memo that “If the situation continues for a longer period, we may reach the threshold where we cannot guarantee the company’s survival.”

On Sunday, SAS of Scandinavia temporarily laid off 90% of all employees and suspended almost all flights.

And only passengers willing to be quarantined for two weeks upon arrival can fly Air New Zealand or Qantas of Australia into those two countries.

U.S. airlines and the broader aerospace players including Boeing and its suppliers are in urgent talks with the Trump administration, asking for public financial support to keep the industry alive and protect an estimated total of about 2 million direct and indirect aviation-related jobs in the U.S.

Not only are the airlines facing a sharp, immediate plummet in demand, their finances will be wrecked for the near future.

“Airlines will be focused on survival, not taking new jets,” said Teal Group aviation analyst Richard Aboulafia in an interview Sunday.

For Boeing, the urgent question is whether any airlines want or need the big jets it’s building right now.

Because of the MAX crisis, the assembly lines for that narrowbody jet in Renton are silent. Now production of the larger widebody jets in Everett and in North Charleston, South Carolina, may have to follow.

In the first two months of the year, the impact of coronavirus already began to appear as Boeing delivered only 30 airplanes total from those two final assembly sites, 25% below the nominal widebody jet production rates.

In Everett, a new 787 Dreamliner has taken its first flights and is ready to be delivered to American. Another 787 is ready for delivery to the flag carrier of Israel, El Al, which as of Sunday has suspended almost all its flights.

While it may be too late to defer those two planes, the airlines have nowhere they can fly them. For many of the planes coming behind them and now under assembly, deferred delivery seems certain.

Among the aircraft under assembly in the Everett factory and almost ready to roll out are another 787 for American and a 777 passenger jet for United. In North Charleston, there are two more 787-10s under assembly for United.


Economic impact worse than 9/11?

When novel coronavirus first appeared, the aviation world compared it to the SARS outbreak in 2003 and hoped for a similar outcome: a three-month slump in demand and a rapid recovery afterward. But as Bastian noted, this is a reckoning more comparable to the hit from 9/11.

And since no one knows if this slump will last three months, six months or a year, when Southwest CEO Gary Kelly last week made the comparison to 9/11, he told employees that the economic slump this time “may be worse.”

Adam Pilarski, veteran analyst with consulting firm Avitas, said Boeing’s position today may indeed be tougher because in the past year the MAX crisis has been straining its financial resources.

Like the airlines, Pilarksi said Boeing “will have to think survival.”

After 9/11, with that mindset, Boeing reacted immediately to a similarly rapid fall-off in demand.

Exactly one week after the terrorist attacks that used Boeing jets to kill almost 3,000 Americans, the Boeing Commercial Airplanes division announced drastic production cuts and plans to lay off between 20,000 and 30,000 workers by the end of 2002.

Then-CEO Phil Condit explained these “tough business decisions” as necessary to “enhance the company’s ability to maintain its solid financial position, strong liquidity and premier debt ratings.”

“These are critical factors in times of business uncertainty and financial stress,” Condit said.

In an interview in 2016, the CEO of Commercial Airplanes at the time of the attacks, Alan Mulally, recalled the decision he had to make as “devastating.”

“The effect on our business was dramatic,” Mulally recalled. “You have to move decisively to match your production resources with the demand. If not, you start burning through so much cash you put the company at risk.”

That’s the threat Boeing again faces now, compounded by the lack of revenue from the 737 MAX and the money it must spend to return that jet to service.

Boeing has the experience of 9/11 and of SARS and other lesser external shocks behind it. So its leadership can be reasonably confident that the long-term trend of growing global air travel will inevitably resume eventually. The problem is how to survive the short-term impact, without knowing exactly how short-term it may be.

When Boeing halted production of the MAX in January, it made the decision not to lay workers off because it anticipated restarting the assembly line around April and getting clearance to fly the MAX by the summer. Management said it wants to retain the skilled workforce during the intervening months to be able to resume production as planned.

As the coronavirus’ economic threat escalates daily around the world, company leaders have to act soon to either slow or stop production. Their decision will likely depend on the response from the government to industry’s appeals.

The question is: Will Boeing be able to maintain jobs to preserve talent for the future recovery? Or will management revert to the thinking of Condit and Mulally in 2001?

Aboulafia said that while slowing or suspending production seems inevitable, “laying off people is probably the wrong call.”

Still, he’s worried that Boeing’s “crack cocaine addiction to shareholder returns” going back almost two decades will produce a different answer that puts protecting the stock price and the current cash position ahead of the workforce and the future.

Pilarski of Avitas suggested Boeing could negotiate a temporary suspension that at least lets employees retain their medical and pension benefits.

The top Boeing executive said that “as I stand here today, mass layoffs is an unlikely outcome.”

“The situation is incredibly fluid,” he then cautioned. “There are too many unknowns and no guaranteed outcome.”

Dominic Gates: 206-464-2963 or [email protected]; on Twitter: @dominicgates.


​​​​​​​

[mickjoebill]

As long as your taking vitamins and you got a good immune system, you are fine. All I pray for is the elder and people with immuno-deficiency illnesses. Covid-19 will sure be lethal to them.

Australian Dr Swan said this morning the situation is PROFOUND and that healthy 40 year olds, without any other condition, died.

Those that didn’t die can have scarred lungs for life.

[givemewings]

Australian Dr Swan said this morning the situation is PROFOUND and that healthy 40 year olds, without any other condition, died.

Those that didn’t die can have scarred lungs for life.

That tallies with what Ive elsewhere from healthcare professionals, nurses etc... they are saying that the type of pneumonia caused by this (was it interstitial?) can be life altering and leave debilitating damage.

Now remember that healthy lung function is essential to pass a medical for all aircrew.

[ATC Watcher]

Now remember that healthy lung function is essential to pass a medical for all aircrew.
Not only aircrews, ATC has class 3 medicals that include this as well, if this permanent damage is verified we risk of losing lots of professionals when this over ..
I am however wary of that statement as the number of recovered cases is quite high by now and surely a post case study of those cases is being made and a result such as this one would be more mediatized ..

[Mascot PPL]

https://simpleflying.com/emirates-wont-suspend-flights/

Seems a sensible approach? Staged through dubai last weds PER DXB DXB GLA. Both flights about 80% full but terminals very quiet as you'd expect most Pax going straight to next gate.

[SpannerInTheWerks]

66.44 milllion in the UK

1:25 = 2.65 million

Death rate 3.4% (apparently), so 90,000 dead

No need to panic as you say

[Hangar_9]

66.44 milllion in the UK

1:25 = 2.65 million

Death rate 3.4% (apparently), so 90,000 dead

No need to panic as you say

Ahhhh yes...... EVERY person in the UK will catch Coronavirus. To quantify your panic can you quote the source for 3.4% and incidence rate?

[cats_five]

Ahhhh yes...... EVERY person in the UK will catch Coronavirus. To quantify your panic can you quote the source for 3.4% and incidence rate?

That's not his assumption. It's that one in 25 will get it, and as he has stated the population is 66.25‬ million.

Both the incidence rate & death rate are hard to be sure of, it would be useful if the source for the one in 25, and 3.4% figures.

[Paul852]

The key thing to remember is that in the next 90 days approximately 200,000 people would die in the UK regardless of Covid-19, and there will be a pretty good correlation between those 200,000 and those who will die of/with Covid-19. It's not at all clear to me that the net growth in deaths will be particularly dramatic.

[Fortissimo]

The key thing to remember is that in the next 90 days approximately 200,000 people would die in the UK regardless of Covid-19, and there will be a pretty good correlation between those 200,000 and those who will die of/with Covid-19. It's not at all clear to me that the net growth in deaths will be particularly dramatic.

You are making the assumption that the people who would have died anyway (normal death rate) will dilute the numbers of deaths purely attributable to Covid-19. Some, perhaps. Many of those already deceased had underlying health conditions but that increased their susceptibility to Covid-19 effects being terminal - you can't assume they would have died anyway. What is very clear is that there is a pandemic infection doing the rounds that kills up to 3% of those infected, and we still do not know exactly what proportion of the population is likely to become infected. As for dramatic net growth or otherwise in deaths, there is pretty good evidence from the Bergamo (Italy) local newspaper, where the obituary notices have gone from the normal 1.5 pages to 10 per day. I call that dramatic.

For all of us, it is worth re-reading Dr tbd's excellent post #109 - he is only a consultant anaesthetist so might know what he is talking about? Time to start taking this seriously.

[Paul852]

88% of the deaths in Italy have been aged 70+, 96% have been aged 60+. Presumably the vast majority of the 4% younger had chronic conditions.

It seems to me much more sensible, and certainly much less damaging to the quality of life of the majority of the population, to focus on isolating those susceptible groups to a level where their infection rates are within what the NHS can handle. With the advantage that the younger population will be exposed to the virus, develop resistance, and then be in a better position to assist those who succumb more seriously.

[ORAC]

Returning to the question of the OP.....

Airlines appealing for governments to provide financial support. Should it be given? The following article makes the case why they shouldn't. I am reminded of the early days of the railways in the UK. A major bubble which burst after thousands of miles had been built and on which the investors lost their money - but the lines and trains remained and were snapped up by the next generation of investors without the burden of the debts.

https://capx.co/airlines-are-on-their-knees-but-aviation-is-only-going-in-one-direction/

.......Whatever happens in the next few weeks, in the long term we can expect the world to keep getting richer, meaning travel is going to continue to grow. It is, in the jargon of economists, a superior or luxury good. As incomes rise, more of the rising income is spent on the item. Wibbles about the 2% of CO2 emissions that aviation accounts for is pretty unlikely to change that.

Nor will the current providers going bust change things either. These are, at the heart of it, merely organisations. The actual assets aren’t going to be destroyed, and there will still be the same number of pilots to operate the things. Similarly, there will be about the same number of planes – barring Boeing having problems again with a new model. Airports already exist and they’re not going to evaporate as with tinned goods off the shelves. Essentially, all of the kit, equipment and infrastructure will still exist, even if the industry has gone through a period of profound turmoil.

That will certainly be difficult for staff who lose their jobs, and the owners whose companies have gone up in smoke. Still, with spare planes, crews and runways plus that still existing desire to go see the world, new companies are sure to spring up to fill the gaps left by the companies that have gone under. Say’s Law, that supply creates demand, isn’t really wholly true. But the inverse, that demand calls forth supply of something technically possible, is. Especially when the landscape is littered with the supplies necessary to make it possible.

However many airlines go bust in this difficult time it’s simply not going to change, in any medium or long term sense, the general ability to fly off somewhere. Simply because it’s observably true that people like doing it, it’s known how to do it, therefore it will be done by those eager to profit.

The worse it becomes for extant – and soon not to be extant – airlines the easier it will be in the near future for a new one to be set up by any would-be entrepreneur with a bit of get up and go. After all, whatever the fallout of this dreadful period, Covid-19 is surely not going to kill off the greed of capitalists?

[there she blows]

Virgin.
8 weeks unpaid leave for all.
parking all but 7 aircraft.
keep strong all

[Barcli]

Virgin.
8 weeks unpaid leave for all.
parking all but 7 aircraft.
keep strong all
Just heard the same - not sure if its staggered 8 weeks or 8 weeks starting from now ( for those " selected")

[there she blows]

Staggered.
Hopefully no deeper

[Flying Wild]

Just heard the same - not sure if its staggered 8 weeks or 8 weeks starting from now ( for those " selected")
8 weeks over 6 months. Better than having to visit the job centre.

[infrequentflyer789]

It seems to me much more sensible, and certainly much less damaging to the quality of life of the majority of the population, to focus on isolating those susceptible groups to a level where their infection rates are within what the NHS can handle. With the advantage that the younger population will be exposed to the virus, develop resistance, and then be in a better position to assist those who succumb more seriously.

It might be, but in fact there are way too many unknowns to be sure which approach is best. This is the why when the government says its approach is guided by science opponents pop up and say "can't be - this scientist over here says they're doing it wrong". Reality is there is nowhere near a scientific consensus on anything other than "we don't know" (if they're being honest).

Just for starters:
* we don't know if this pandemic will come in several waves like Spanish flu or if it will go away after one wave like SARS (if we can get R<1)
* we don't know how long resistance lasts following exposure, some say it may be months (based on monkey experiments with SARS I think), some suggest only weeks (reported re-infections)
* we don't know who is vulnerable or why - e.g. currently a lot of scientific argument as to whether hypertension is the risk factor or if the risk is the drugs commonly used to treat it, or if it's a total red herring
* we don't know the long term effects of exposure, many (most?) recovered SARS patients have chronic lung problems and lipid metabolism changes, many years later, for COVID19 we don't know yet, but early survivors are known not to have recovered full lung function, yet, maybe they will in future, or maybe not
* we know that some corona viruses in animals lie dormant after first exposure and recovery and then go on to kill years later, no one knows what this one will do years from now

[glofish]

88% of the deaths in Italy have been aged 70+, 96% have been aged 60+. Presumably the vast majority of the 4% younger had chronic conditions.

It seems to me much more sensible, and certainly much less damaging to the quality of life of the majority of the population, to focus on isolating those susceptible groups to a level where their infection rates are within what the NHS can handle. With the advantage that the younger population will be exposed to the virus, develop resistance, and then be in a better position to assist those who succumb more seriously.
That is my point as well, although you'll get a ****storm the moment you propagate that in public. I remember in my youth, in a very civilised European country, when some other kid contracted the measles, chicken pox or even mumps, our parents with the schools consent organised parties. Most kids contracted and surmounted the disease, developed immunity and their immune system grew a little stronger. There were the odd victims, certainly, and when it concerned your family you would most probably criticise this procedure. But for the overall society and the economy it was the sensible thing to do. Today we do not accept even one random victim, as old or frail it might be, as we call ourselves civilised, but we accept the collateral damage of huge lockdowns. Whatever victims of these lockdown measures could appear, other than the COV-19, we will probably not put them in context, we accept those however for the assumed "good of the society". (Or was it for the reelection??)

[ILS27LEFT]

The North of Italy has got one of the best NHS systems in the world (it is the opposite in the South), this is in addition to having one of the highest number of intensive care beds vs 100K of population compared to the rest of the world. This is a serious and very worrying sign of what COVID-19 can do in any other country. The biggest problem now is the impact that COVID-19 will have on any travel related business as global travel will soon be completely banned as we have never seen it before. Airlines, Hotels, Travel Companies, Events Companies, etc will have zero cash flow imminently as transactions have collapsed by a magnitude that has never been seen before. Millions of jobs will be lost as other industries will collapse due to the absence of travel, e.g. airline manufacturers will also temporarily close down, whilst national airlines will have to be nationalized again,all other airlines will disappear. If governments will not step in quickly to support the millions of people losing their jobs then we will also see civil unrest and riots. This prediction seems probably unreal now however it is the first time in my life that I genuinely believe this could be the 3rd WW we have all been waiting for. This time is really scary. Good luck to all of us. The economic collapse is as scary as the massive loss of lives that COVID-19 will cause. Covid-19-->Health emergency/Pandemic-->Banned Global travel-->Travel related businesses collapsing--->Civil unrest. This prediction is not pure pessimism. Governments will have to inject lots of cash to save travel related businesses. Central banks can just produce unlimited e-Money and transfer to Companies, let's hope they will start asap to avoid chaos. So who will survive in 6 months? Only those helped by the Governments, all the others will disappear.

I was genuinely hoping to be over-pessimistic on 13 Mar night...Governments will have to move quickly to avoid chaos. It is getting clearer by the day. We cannot have too many people without an income in such a short period of time. Travel Companies will run out of cash, but also many other businesses will seriously struggle (TFL, restaurants, hotels, cinemas, gyms and many more). It is going to be a mess unfortunately.

[qwertyuiop]

TFL are a company that needs to go bust then reform without any of the ridiculous union rules. Hopefully it will drag the mayor down with it.

[dogsridewith]

There have been a couple reports of arthritis drugs (Rheumatoid Arthritis?) being tried (with some success?) for treating Covid-19 cases. But drug names or types were not stated. Methotrexate? Leflunomide? The "Biologics?" If these drugs' sort of general immune system suppression function is working against Covid-19, that would suggest the "Cytokine Storm" explanation of this Coronovirus' lethality?

(Apologies for all the ?'s and lack of search on this.)

[Airbubba]

There have been a couple reports of arthritis drugs (Rheumatoid Arthritis?) being tried (with some success?) for treating Covid-19 cases. But drug names or types were not stated.

Here's an alleged cure in a Reuters report from South Asia. I haven't tried it myself.

https://gulfnews.com/photos/news/special-offer-hindu-group-offers-cow-urine-in-a-bid-to-ward-off-coronavirus-1.1584180650468

[woptb]

I was working for a freight outfit & we did a lot of work for a large brown outfit. The growth in work with freighters was exponential,lots of cancelled pax flights lots of lost underfloor capacity. The growth in transatlantic freight operations was exponential!

[Longtimer]

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/565x238/cancels_6ef48fa3c24aab155d499ff261bfc3c1a5076d3e.jpg
From Flight Global, those who will remain are diminishing, at least for now. RE the use of passenger aircraft for cargo, back in the day on the 747, we were told that a half belly load of cargo would more than pay for the operation of the flight, anything over that would return a profit with the revenues from any SLC being gravy.

[clipstone1]

The biggest risk for the airline employees (current and former) is potential loss of pensions that have been accrued over many years. Sure a whole bunch of new airlines, probably with almost the same names, will start up to fill gaps of any that do disappear (all paying less money and with worse t&cs than those which have gone) but that will still leave employees with huge holes in their legacy pension schemes.

[BlankBox]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/opinion/airlines-bailout.html?algo=top_conversion&fellback=false&imp_id=763608397&imp_id=866207244&action=click&module=trending&pgtype=Article&region=Footer

...interesting viewpoint...BUT...will anybody listen?

[Smooth Airperator]

Why pick on airlines? This is the reality of unabated capitalism. These very people lobby governments to not bring about any change which might improve the lives of customers or employees so they can line their own pockets. Just look at the American political system, how without big money you cannot even run for leadership.

[Vendee]

I can only speak for my country but I don't see why big business, its directors and shareholders can fatten themselves in the good times and then expect Joe Public to give them money when things turn sour.

[procede]

Do not worry. If we, the taxpayers, do save them, this will be in a way which essentially will make the stock worthless (i.e. nationalisation). The shareholders will thus be the first who will be screwed over.

[Clandestino]

It's perhaps comforting we're seeing a united, international, fight against this adversity. In itself, an oddly science fiction scenario.

​​​​​​Seemingly written by the likes of Douglas Adams, Tery Pratchett and Robert Sheckley.

As for the original question, probably not me. I have always been aware that my birthplace makes my position very vulnerable, but I have never envisaged my career collapsing in such a spectacular manner.

[DaveReidUK]

TFL are a company that needs to go bust then reform without any of the ridiculous union rules. Hopefully it will drag the mayor down with it.

Rumour has it that TFL is headed down the tubes.

[infrequentflyer789]

Do not worry. If we, the taxpayers, do save them, this will be in a way which essentially will make the stock worthless (i.e. nationalisation). The shareholders will thus be the first who will be screwed over.

Real question is what happens to their (typically offshore) debt if they are bailed out. Shareholders get a much worse deal both ways these days, used to be you got the profits in the good times and took the losses in the bad times, now in the good times you get a share of whats left of the profit, after tax and the holders of the offshore leveraged debt take cut (tax free).

IMO taxpayer bailouts for businesses with too little in reserve to survive a downturn should generally not go to the holders of the debt that put the business in that position in the first place, and particularly not when that debt is offshore to avoid paying tax on the profits.

[SamYeager]

The shareholders will thus be the first who will be screwed over.
However it's a fair bet that senior management will be unscathed other than perhaps the odd bonus and the profit from selling awarded shares. :*

[GKOC41]

You are making the assumption that the people who would have died anyway (normal death rate) will dilute the numbers of deaths purely attributable to Covid-19. Some, perhaps. Many of those already deceased had underlying health conditions but that increased their susceptibility to Covid-19 effects being terminal - you can't assume they would have died anyway. What is very clear is that there is a pandemic infection doing the rounds that kills up to 3% of those infected, and we still do not know exactly what proportion of the population is likely to become infected. As for dramatic net growth or otherwise in deaths, there is pretty good evidence from the Bergamo (Italy) local newspaper, where the obituary notices have gone from the normal 1.5 pages to 10 per day. I call that dramatic.

For all of us, it is worth re-reading Dr tbd's excellent post #109 - he is only a consultant anaesthetist so might know what he is talking about? Time to start taking this seriously.
Is the thread about airlines here in 6 months or the general public...

[Pugilistic Animus]

Denti's talking epidemiology:ok:

Covid19 spreads like the common cold; so, a strong probability just about all of us will be exposed to it over the next few years. Identified cases tend to be the severe ones, but at least that denominator (positive tests) is known. Silent infections are likely a much larger denominator that we don't really know at present.

As for a vaccine, they've been trying for many decades to develop one against a fellow coronavirus, the common cold.

Rhinovirus too

[ciderman]

We recently booked a flight from UK to Singapore via Dubai to join a cruise ship. When we had to alter our arrangements to stop in Dubai we expected a refund on the Dubai to Singapore leg (business class). Oh no. The original flight was cancelled by the airline and we had to buy another ticket to DXB. This turned out to be £400pp dearer than UK to SIN. Fair enough, we accepted the law of supply and demand. BUT, When Richard Branson starts asking for £7.5bn to keep his airline afloat I say no way. Supply and demand is not a one way street and when the going gets tough don't ask for my (taxpayer) money. Sell an island Sir Richard and that goes for any other airline bleating about no pax!!
ciderman is offline Report Post (https://www.pprune.org/report.php?p=10716175)

[BlankBox]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-aviation/u-s-airlines-seek-50-billion-government-bailout-after-coronavirus-outbreak-idUSKBN2132V5

...well...that didn't take long :p

[Airbubba]

U.S. airlines are going to the trough hoping for more than $50 billion.

From CNBC:

U.S. airlines are seeking government assistance of more than $50 billion, including a mix of direct aid and loan guarantees, as the industry reels from the coronavirus outbreak, a lobbying group that represents 10 U.S. passenger and cargo airlines said Monday.

The aid, if received, would be the industry’s first broad bailout since the wake of the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks. It is also the clearest sign yet of the financial damage coronavirus and the draconian measures governments are taking to stop it are having on American businesses.


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/us-airlines-seek-more-than-50-billion-in-aid-as-coronavirus-roils-business.html

Airlines for America, the industry lobbying group formerly known as the Air Transport Association, looks like they could use a web page update:

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1493x608/a4a_c42a5732eaa93aaf1676bca51ba53cd949ad3de6.jpg

[Dan_Brown]

Why should the British tax payer help prop up airlines? Travel is a luxury, trying to save life is a priority.

As mentioned above, they objected to the Govenment (tax payer) assisting Fly Be, now they're squealing like stuck pigs, now they are in the pig poo, themselves.

[lomapaseo]

I can only speak for my country but I don't see why big business, its directors and shareholders can fatten themselves in the good times and then expect Joe Public to give them money when things turn sour.

Well if we went socialist we wouldn't get fat in good time so then bad times would not even be noticed as a change to the worker bees

[BlankBox]

Is the thread about airlines here in 6 months or the general public...

I tried to get a separate thread for Airline bailouts going...but Mods had other ideas & combined 'em...so live with it...

PS: ...I'm over 75 so likely one o' the dead ones to come...so fit into what I thought this was originally about..:\

[infrequentflyer789]

There have been a couple reports of arthritis drugs (Rheumatoid Arthritis?) being tried (with some success?) for treating Covid-19 cases. But drug names or types were not stated. Methotrexate? Leflunomide? The "Biologics?" If these drugs' sort of general immune system suppression function is working against Covid-19, that would suggest the "Cytokine Storm" explanation of this Coronovirus' lethality?

More likely referring to hydroxychloroquine, mild immunosuppressive but also anti-viral effect, apparently. Other candidates are some of the anti-HIV drugs.

Hydroxychloroquine is an older anti-malarial, still used for certain destinations (most places it is no longer effective against malaria), I guess some pilots may have some. I'd keep hold of it if you do. I know that the UK has put it on export restriction as of a couple of days ago, this isn't a coincidence.

And yes, "Cytokine Storm" is a known lethal pathology for this disease.

[Nil by mouth]

I saw this tip on a Mercedes forum about panic buying hand sanitiser https://benzglobal.org/viewtopic.php?f=2&p=338#p338

Gib/Spanish border operating normally this morning.
EasyJet and BA flights departed today and both airlines scheduled flights to UK airports still listed up until this coming Saturday. https://www.gibraltarairport.gi/content/live-flight-info

[etudiant]

This virus is the best thing that ever happened to the national carriers. Whereas previously governments were inclined to let them go bust or folded into transnational entities, now suddenly there is largess, courtesy of the taxpayer.
Of course the airlines have plenty of company in this de facto renationalization, now that the EU has shown its complete inability to ensure supranational rules apply to critical items such as protective medical gear.
The dream of 'one world' has faded with the recognition that it is dangerous to rely on a global supply chain for essentials such as medicines. Imho Brexit is only the beginning of a return to national self reliance, which will bring tariffs and trade barriers.
Of course there will be less global travel in this new environment, so the national carriers will prosper, but on a smaller scale.

[gearlever]

No worries....


https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/779x457/dt_cef6fb442ca994c2191dd4b17027375cb24e5d1e.jpg

[Ollie Onion]

The ‘Chinese’ virus, no Donald I think it is the Worlds virus now.

[Longtimer]

Boeing and Trump administration in talks about short-term aid as aviation reels from coronavirus
So it seems that someone is creating a link between the MAX problems (caused by Boeing?) and the virus. Hmmmm Seems to me that the Boeing problems are 99% Max and 1% virus.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/coronavirus-boeing-trump-administration-in-talks-about-short-term-aid.html

[AerialPerspective]

Boeing and Trump administration in talks about short-term aid as aviation reels from coronavirus
So it seems that someone is creating a link between the MAX problems (caused by Boeing?) and the virus. Hmmmm Seems to me that the Boeing problems are 99% Max and 1% virus.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/coronavirus-boeing-trump-administration-in-talks-about-short-term-aid.html
Who gives a damn what the orange clown thinks, he's an imbecile who is likely to make this worse rather than better... as for Boeing, they will be bailed out by the US Government. The US don't have much choice with the amount of defense materiel tied to Boeing.

[RickNRoll]

This virus is the best thing that ever happened to the national carriers. Whereas previously governments were inclined to let them go bust or folded into transnational entities, now suddenly there is largess, courtesy of the taxpayer.
Of course the airlines have plenty of company in this de facto renationalization, now that the EU has shown its complete inability to ensure supranational rules apply to critical items such as protective medical gear.
The dream of 'one world' has faded with the recognition that it is dangerous to rely on a global supply chain for essentials such as medicines. Imho Brexit is only the beginning of a return to national self reliance, which will bring tariffs and trade barriers.
Of course there will be less global travel in this new environment, so the national carriers will prosper, but on a smaller scale.
Capitalise the profits, socialise the losses.

[clipstone1]

No worries....


https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/779x457/dt_cef6fb442ca994c2191dd4b17027375cb24e5d1e.jpg
Exactly what the US did post Sept 11, subsidised their aviation industry while the rest of the world to pay themselves.....

[Nialler]

SLF here, but probably with enough miles under my belt to have paid several salaries over the years.

I took two things from the OP (although both might not have been included:

The first is the risk to our health - and that risk seems global.

The second is the risk to livelihoods in the aviation industry.

I don't feel that there is anything wrong with addressing both. Of course there is a much bigger picture involved, but surely you professionals have the right to also consider the potential fallout when it comes knocking on your door with a message for you personally. That the individual knocking isn't carrying a scythe, but rather a P45 or its equivalent, doesn't mitigate the direct impact.

You people carry us hither and thither. Sometimes you may have to dig deep into your bank of skills in order to get us where we want to be.

I hope you all survive this with health intact and a career in place. The best of luck to all.

[Smooth Airperator]

Capitalise the profits, socialise the losses.

I'll use that for life!

[Drc40]

Who gives a damn what the orange clown thinks, he's an imbecile who is likely to make this worse rather than better... as for Boeing, they will be bailed out by the US Government. The US don't have much choice with the amount of defense materiel tied to Boeing.

I give a damn what the orange clown thinks. He’s all the US has and we should hope he makes good decisions. Based on what I’ve seen he’s been smart enough to surround himself with professionals and experts. Now is not the time to point fingers with political partisanship. We all need to band together and work the problem. I’m stuck with the spineless Mr Trudeau. At least the orange clown is making hard decisions while my leader can’t decide when to take a dump. I’d be happy with a cocky clown vs a spineless wimp right now.

As for Boeing, of course there will be government bailouts. It won’t be unique to them or the industry either. Many other industries will need the same to survive. Many big companies and banks will lose value as well. Companies like Apple will lose billions of stock value but they won’t become insolvent. Many big businesses will shed paper value and there will be a new norm. This is a huge game changer.

[Nialler]

I give a damn what the orange clown thinks. He’s all the US has and we should hope he makes good decisions. Based on what I’ve seen he’s been smart enough to surround himself with professionals and experts. Now is not the time to point fingers with political partisanship. We all need to band together and work the problem. I’m stuck with the spineless Mr Trudeau. At least the orange clown is making hard decisions while my leader can’t decide when to take a dump. I’d be happy with a cocky clown vs a spineless wimp right now.

As for Boeing, of course there will be government bailouts. It won’t be unique to them or the industry either. Many other industries will need the same to survive. Many big companies and banks will lose value as well. Companies like Apple will lose billions of stock value but they won’t become insolvent. Many big businesses will shed paper value and there will be a new norm. This is a huge game changer.
I am simply not seeing him being at all smart, and certainly not seeing evidence of his taking on board the views of experts.

The guy is either an idiot or doing a very accomplished impersonation of one. Did you not watch his presser the other night? Critical aspects of what he said had to be clarified afterwards. I mean really basic and critical aspects.

[marchino61]

The biggest risk for the airline employees (current and former) is potential loss of pensions that have been accrued over many years. Sure a whole bunch of new airlines, probably with almost the same names, will start up to fill gaps of any that do disappear (all paying less money and with worse t&cs than those which have gone) but that will still leave employees with huge holes in their legacy pension schemes.

Why? Pension schemes are not owned by companies. They are independent. As long as the companies have kept the schemes fully-funded, there should be no problem.

[superflanker]

Just for starters:

* we don't know the long term effects of exposure, many (most?) recovered SARS patients have chronic lung problems and lipid metabolism changes, many years later, for COVID19 we don't know yet, but early survivors are known not to have recovered full lung function, yet, maybe they will in future, or maybe not
* we know that some corona viruses in animals lie dormant after first exposure and recovery and then go on to kill years later, no one knows what this one will do years from now

You have to be careful with this assumptions. When you say this things it's almost like you love see people panicking.

1- Only critical patients with severe pneumonia had shown this problems (and "regular" pneumonia caused by bacteria can have the same effect, I have seen this happen on a family member years ago).
2- Remember critical-ill patients represent around 5-10%. And not all of them have shown this problems.
3- You say this virus is new and we don't know much about it (true). So you can't assure this problems are "chronic". They may be temporary.

This virus has "just" been discovered. The entire world is researching vaccines, new treatments and old treatments for other diseases that could work with this one. It's just a matter of time some treatment with good results show up.

And speculations about how this virus could or could not behave in the future doesn't help anybody.

This situation is already bad as it is for the world, for aviation and for us (pilots). And it will most probably get worse before it gets better. So please stop spreading more panic.

Thanks

[admiral ackbar]

I give a damn what the orange clown thinks. He’s all the US has and we should hope he makes good decisions. Based on what I’ve seen he’s been smart enough to surround himself with professionals and experts. Now is not the time to point fingers with political partisanship. We all need to band together and work the problem. I’m stuck with the spineless Mr Trudeau. At least the orange clown is making hard decisions while my leader can’t decide when to take a dump. I’d be happy with a cocky clown vs a spineless wimp right now.

As for Boeing, of course there will be government bailouts. It won’t be unique to them or the industry either. Many other industries will need the same to survive. Many big companies and banks will lose value as well. Companies like Apple will lose billions of stock value but they won’t become insolvent. Many big businesses will shed paper value and there will be a new norm. This is a huge game changer.

The man you say surrounded himself with scientists called the virus a hoax and said it was contained to 15 cases 2 weeks ago. You say not to get lost in political posturing and go on a generic anti-Trudeau rant in the same breath, does it only work one way? The VP and current surgeon general heading your crack team mismamaged an HIV epidemic in Kansas (2011) because they don't believe in science and also think South Korea is a dictatorship (to explain why they could not react like them).

Not saying the federal government is doing a great job (our Premier in Quebec is making Trudeau look awful) but the provincial governments in general (except Alberta and Ontario, Doug Ford telling people to go on spring break last Friday was almost criminal) are doing a good job so far, at least where I live. Your confidence in our friends to the south federal leadership is misguided. I would have shut the border to Americans (people not goods) yesterday as well.

[ATC Watcher]

Someone earlier asked about Air France future . well the French Finance minister Bruno Le Maire announced this morning that no large company will be allowed to fail, money will be injected even nationalization will be looked at .
So here you go. Air France will survive this crisis.

[Smooth Airperator]

The biggest U.S. airlines spent 96% of free cash flow over the last decade to buy back shares of their own stock in order to boost executive bonuses and please wealthy investors. Now, they expect taxpayers to bail them out to the tune of $50 billion. It's the same old story.

[Drc40]

I am simply not seeing him being at all smart, and certainly not seeing evidence of his taking on board the views of experts.


The man you say surrounded himself with scientists called the virus a hoax and said it was contained to 15 cases 2 weeks ago

I sure as $&@# not defending the guy nor claiming he’s smart. I dislike him as much as the entire world but what I’ve seen the last few days appears promising. I’ve seen an army of health and science professionals, out front, doing the best they can. Whatever happened two weeks ago is ancient history in this clamity. Its not the time to be pointing fingers over what they shoulda coulda done. There will be a time for that but it’s not now. Now is the time to be vigilant, smart and safe.

I think the testing dispute is impossible. No country has the capability to test all citizens. You test those with symptoms in order to quarantine. You simply can not test the entire population. Those with a runny nose will make a beeline to the testing stations and crash the system. It’s a fools errand to think testing everyone will somehow help and suggesting to do so is heightening the hysteria.

Cheers all, everyone stay safe.

[Xeptu]

My Tip, All International Passenger Borders Globally will close for one month at least from Saturday 21st March 2020 Freight and Special Missions only

[Smooth Airperator]

https://twitter.com/FlyingWithSara/status/1239766141641375745?s=20

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/710x570/capture_2eab90b35cba530c3c7fafe53fcbdd55d89595cc.png

[Spooky 2]

Who gives a damn what the orange clown thinks, he's an imbecile who is likely to make this worse rather than better... as for Boeing, they will be bailed out by the US Government. The US don't have much choice with the amount of defense materiel tied to Boeing.


The mods should have addicted politics site for your kind of crap.

[neville_nobody]

If Boeing get government aid I'd be very aggrieved if I was Bombardier. Build a superior aircraft, unable to sell in the USA because of alleged of government support, lose all your orders to Boeing who then go broke and get a Government bailout

This press release from a few years ago is not going to age well:

“We are disappointed that the International Trade Commission did not recognize the harm that Boeing has suffered from the billions of dollars in illegal government subsidies that the Department of Commerce found Bombardier received and used to dump aircraft in the U.S. small single-aisle airplane market. Those violations have harmed the U.S. aerospace industry, and we are feeling the effects of those unfair business practices in the market every day.

“While we disagree with the ITC’s conclusion today, we will review the Commission’s more detailed opinions in full as they are released in the coming days.

“Boeing remains confident in the facts of our case and will continue to document any harm to Boeing and our extensive U.S. supply chain that results from illegal subsidies and dumped pricing. We will not stand by as Bombardier’s illegal business practices continue to harm American workers and the aerospace industry they support. Global trade only works if everyone adheres to the rules we have all agreed to. That’s a belief we will continue to defend.”

[cats_five]

I sure as $&@# not defending the guy nor claiming he’s smart. I dislike him as much as the entire world but what I’ve seen the last few days appears promising. I’ve seen an army of health and science professionals, out front, doing the best they can. Whatever happened two weeks ago is ancient history in this clamity. Its not the time to be pointing fingers over what they shoulda coulda done. There will be a time for that but it’s not now. Now is the time to be vigilant, smart and safe.

I think the testing dispute is impossible. No country has the capability to test all citizens. You test those with symptoms in order to quarantine. You simply can not test the entire population. Those with a runny nose will make a beeline to the testing stations and crash the system. It’s a fools errand to think testing everyone will somehow help and suggesting to do so is heightening the hysteria.

Cheers all, everyone stay safe.

Unfortunately before he finally started listening to the experts, the National Security Council Directorate for Global Health Security and Biodefense had been closed down.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/nsc-pandemic-office-trump-closed/2020/03/13/a70de09c-6491-11ea-acca-80c22bbee96f_story.html

[Drc40]

Unfortunately before he finally started listening to the experts, the National Security Council Directorate for Global Health Security and Biodefense had been closed down.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/nsc-pandemic-office-trump-closed/2020/03/13/a70de09c-6491-11ea-acca-80c22bbee96f_story.html

I bought into that until I did a little reading and discovered it was false. Now the same paper is setting the record straight.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/16/no-white-house-didnt-dissolve-its-pandemic-response-office/

[cats_five]

I bought into that until I did a little reading and discovered it was false. Now the same paper is setting the record straight.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/16/no-white-house-didnt-dissolve-its-pandemic-response-office/

Thanks but Paywall... :( I've used my free views for the time being.

[bafanguy]

...but what I’ve seen the last few days appears promising. I’ve seen an army of health and science professionals, out front, doing the best they can. Whatever happened two weeks ago is ancient history in this clamity. Its not the time to be pointing fingers over what they shoulda coulda done. There will be a time for that but it’s not now. Now is the time to be vigilant, smart and safe.

I think the testing dispute is impossible. No country has the capability to test all citizens. You test those with symptoms in order to quarantine. You simply can not test the entire population. Those with a runny nose will make a beeline to the testing stations and crash the system. It’s a fools errand to think testing everyone will somehow help and suggesting to do so is heightening the hysteria.

Drc40,

Thank you for a measured, rational response to the hysteria and political vitriol, keeping the focus on the actual extant problem. There's a long way to go to set the world right.

I was going to attempt it myself but you did infinitely better than I could have.

[Aithiopika]

I think the testing dispute is impossible. No country has the capability to test all citizens. You test those with symptoms in order to quarantine. You simply can not test the entire population. Those with a runny nose will make a beeline to the testing stations and crash the system. It’s a fools errand to think testing everyone will somehow help and suggesting to do so is heightening the hysteria.

Not sure what you're criticizing here. I'm certain there's no serious dispute about whether to test every single person (it's impossible).

Any serious person who wants to get testing up and running wants to do targeted testing, because if we can only manage to sort out the testing mess, it will allow for much more effective containment.

(most of the pronouncements we (USA) have had about the virus being pas the point of containment are really arguments that testing is so fubar that we won't be able to fix it and get all the necessities distributed to where they are needed before it becomes too late. I.e., it's too late from a logistics of testing perspective, not from a direct how widely the virus has spread perspective).

[Radgirl]

There is a lot we dont know about the virus, but some basics about epidemiology and what is happening around the world allow us to be reasonably confident

1 that we should have totally isolated China when they locked down - we didnt and the early cases either came straight from China or via China

2 that we should have locked down our countries (I mean the UK and US) about 2 weeks ago - close borders and self isolate everyone except essential workers

3 that we are both undertesting - we need to test 100s of thousands so we can track and eliminate

If we had done so we could have kept deaths at under 100 in the UK and equivalent in the US. As it is we will see many more. The message must go out to self isolate. Everyone except essential workers. No exceptions as to who or how. No contact. Period. Once each patient can only infect less than one other person we win. We can then unlock, rebuild and get the economy and aviation moving again. Anything less and it will drag on much longer with more lives lost

[TURIN]

... The message must go out to self isolate. Everyone except essential workers. No exceptions as to who or how. No contact. Period. Once each patient can only infect less than one other person we win. We can then unlock, rebuild and get the economy and aviation moving again. Anything less and it will drag on much longer with more lives lost

Who decides which are essential?
Is it the supermarket shelf stockers, produce delivery drivers, and admin staff that run the re-supply operation? What about utility suppliers? Gas, electricity generation and distribution and water/sewage don't look after themselves. Do we tell the police, fire services and other emergency services to stay at home? What about government, local and national? TV and radio networks , do we shut them down and let everyone go back to reading books and playing cards?

Its all very well saying 'essential workers' until you realise who actually is essential.

[etudiant]

There is a lot we dont know about the virus, but some basics about epidemiology and what is happening around the world allow us to be reasonably confident

1 that we should have totally isolated China when they locked down - we didnt and the early cases either came straight from China or via China

2 that we should have locked down our countries (I mean the UK and US) about 2 weeks ago - close borders and self isolate everyone except essential workers

3 that we are both undertesting - we need to test 100s of thousands so we can track and eliminate

If we had done so we could have kept deaths at under 100 in the UK and equivalent in the US. As it is we will see many more. The message must go out to self isolate. Everyone except essential workers. No exceptions as to who or how. No contact. Period. Once each patient can only infect less than one other person we win. We can then unlock, rebuild and get the economy and aviation moving again. Anything less and it will drag on much longer with more lives lost

Problem is getting through the shutdown period.
People have to eat and pay the rent, but most don't have the savings to live off their hump for a couple of months. Nor do their employers have the money to pay them without normal business inflow.
So a shutdown is really a nationalization by another name, the government waives the payments due and provides credits (a la $1000/month suggested by Trump). Unwinding this will be challenging as well.
But it does seem the virus is compelling a very basic reappraisal of what a humane economic structure should look like.

[Matey]

Very well said Turin

[giggitygiggity]

The ‘Chinese’ virus, no Donald I think it is the Worlds virus now.

I thought cultural appropriation was a no no?

[Radgirl]

Who decides which are essential?
Is it the supermarket shelf stockers, produce delivery drivers, and admin staff that run the re-supply operation? What about utility suppliers? Gas, electricity generation and distribution and water/sewage don't look after themselves. Do we tell the police, fire services and other emergency services to stay at home?

That is the reason for lockdown. Essential workers represent a significant minority. you have listed only a small number - add healthcare workers for example. Unless everyone else stops going out to work or socialise we simply wont get the degree of social distancing necessary to beat the pandemic.

People have to eat and pay the rent, but most don't have the savings to live off their hump for a couple of months. Nor do their employers have the money to pay them without normal business inflow.

In the UK we are already there as is the rest of Europe. This isnt a case of 'what if' this is a case of 'what now'

The economic disruption will be profound, coming on top of the medical issues and before we have even considered the exit strategy.

[vikingivesterled]

Not sure what you're criticizing here. I'm certain there's no serious dispute about whether to test every single person (it's impossible).


Why is it impossible to test every single person. For the US that would require 300 million test kits consisting of 2 sticks and 2 tubes with lids. I am sure sample Buweiser make more bottles of beer than that in arelatively short time. Or the dairies cartoons of milk.
In addition you need a lot of chemicals and people to mix and use them. Plenty of people available and the training is probably not longwinded if concentrated only on the essential.

However 300 million wouldn't be enough. You would need to test each one several times to find when the ones with weak symptoms have it. And afterwards. 2 separate tests to declare them finished with CoVid-19 and in the clear and can resume normal life.
What we need is what the UK have requested. A new test that shows you have had it and now have antibodies and are immune. and for how long. Eventually they will have to come up with a cheap home test kit. If they can do it for pregnancy, why not.

I for one would also like a lung scan regularly afterwards to check if scar tissue has been created on the lungs, how long it takes to go away and when I'm ready for the next virus.
If sample you only become immune for lets say 3 years and build up more scar tissue for each round, we are all due a sticky end more quickly than we had hoped. Some diseases take a new generation to overcome.
And no I would'nt put all my eggs in the vaccine basket. They haven't been able to make one for any of the other 4 Corona viruses that regularly causes a cold in most of us.

[PAXboy]

cattletruck
To put this reaper into perspective. The current death toll from coronavirus currently stands at 5830 over a 1.5 month period. The average annual death toll from tobacco stands at 8 million (https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-s...detail/tobacco).

You are not comparing like for like. It is well known that, if someone smokes cigarettes for 20 years+, they are probably going to die of it. Likewise, death due to car prang and annual flu - it is well known. What people are panicking about is a NEW disease that cannot be seen or felt when it infects you and might kill you or deprive you of a job when your company cannot trade.


All govts and corporates picked up their old rule book and started reading. Eventhough some have been pointing out (for some time) that there was a Depression waiting for a trigger. ALL central banks now have to do something different and, for institutions, that is very, very difficult.

One of the key problems is that money is needed more urgently at the 'bottom' of the ladder, for the people with mortgages and bills to pay. Govts are only used to giving money to the 'top' of the ladder.

Putting money in at the top is not great as so little will reach the bottom. This needs a complete rethink by Govt and central banks. Neither of which are renowned for being able to change their entire way of thinking. Leave alone in the space of two weeks. That applies to every line of work.

[b1lanc]

That is the reason for lockdown. Essential workers represent a significant minority. you have listed only a small number - add healthcare workers for example. Unless everyone else stops going out to work or socialise we simply wont get the degree of social distancing necessary to beat the pandemic.


Bingo. Those of us who work supporting the military as I do and who's spouses are healthcare, corrections, EMTs, law enforcement, fire, etc. are now teleworking or taking personal time while the important people continue to work at flattening the curve. I am not mission essential personnel. My spouse is. Driving into Boston for my son's medical treatment today, the hospital was empty, the streets and highways were empty, the pubs and eateries were closed, and nobody was walking around downtown. AND that is exactly what needs to happen.

[Loose rivets]

I was uncertain about the way in which the virus became pneumonia. I now have a reasonable overview picture gained by the Guardian article.

Perhaps the main issue is that it infects a large proportion of the lungs. It seems that it is viral pneumonia and there is little treatment other than oxygen and nursing. It's anticipated that it will, like most pneumonia, become bacteriological and so the patient - if they're very lucky - will be given antibiotics if they've survived the first stage.

Prof Christine Jenkins, chair of Lung Foundation Australia and a leading respiratory physician, told Guardian Australia: “Unfortunately, so far we don’t have anything that can stop people getting Covid-19 pneumonia.

Again, my drum-beating about moisture particles in the air. For years I've been writing here and there about how we could lessen the hospital burden by the use of small disinfected towels. A tissue just will not do the job. Now I suggest it's a matter of life or death and again raise the bizarrely bad example we're still seeing from say, the press. Screeching into people's faces at this time should be considered a serious assault. I'm still very angry at that scene.

Stilll every day people are talking AT each other. We need to educate the public about the spray. It is the prime killer.

[Airbubba]

Assumptions from the U.S. Government playbook on the virus:

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/640x524/assumptions_2c4f0626cf345b8e41d10165b6cb50a1c4d244ce.jpg
https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper/6819-covid-19-response-plan/d367f758bec47cad361f/optimized/full.pdf#page=1

[pilotrob23]

Well, had my four year anniversary yesterday. Best pilot group I have ever been a part of. Looking at what to do next? Anyone have that truck driving school number?

[beaver341]

UK population is 65,000,000 give or take.

4% of that is 2,600,000 who will therefore catch the virus if left unchecked (no quarantining etc)

Mortality rate is 2% which gives a death toll of 52,000 in UK using your figures.

US has a population of 327.2m which gives them a potential death toll of 261,760. Again using your figures.

The Flu season has been in full swing for a few months and Covid19 is playing catchup but is far more of a threat that flu which has a mortality rate of 0.1%

[Drc40]

Not sure what you're criticizing here. I'm certain there's no serious dispute about whether to test every single person (it's impossible)


Im currently in the US. As someone with homes on both sides of the boarder (US/Can) I get a good mix and feel for news from various sources. Thankfully I have my VPN to keep up with things in Canada but when on this side I normally flip through local and national sources. With being kind of stuck and purposely staying in I’ve been watching WAY more than I like. I can tell you with absolute certainty talking heads and commentators directly suggested testing everyone and others hint at it. Further, some also suggested tests for anyone with minor symptoms. It’s not limited to any network or local broadcasts either. Bloody nonsense that sends the wrong message.

[Paul852]

UK population is 65,000,000 give or take.

4% of that is 2,600,000 who will therefore catch the virus if left unchecked (no quarantining etc)

Mortality rate is 2% which gives a death toll of 52,000 in UK using your figures.

Even if we accept those figures (which I'm not sure I do), in the next 6 months approximately 400,000 people would be expected to die in the UK in the normal course of events. Many of your 52,000 are people who would othewise have been in that 400,000. It's not at all clear to me that the net increase in deaths would be significant. And the benefit to millions of people of strengthened immune systems as a result of overcoming the virus is significant.

[beaver341]

Even if we accept those figures (which I'm not sure I do), in the next 6 months approximately 400,000 people would be expected to die in the UK in the normal course of events. Many of your 52,000 are people who would otherwise have been in that 400,000. It's not at all clear to me that the net increase in deaths would be significant. And the benefit to millions of people of strengthened immune systems as a result of overcoming the virus is significant.

You make a good point which the press have not acknowledged.

[Lepo]

Ebola makes you so sick that you have to stay in bed and inevitably limit the spread of the disease since you cannot interact with people anymore.

Covid-19 have flu like symptoms and you can still perform your daily duties and spread the virus to all people who interact with you. We have a portion of the population who's in a risk group due to underlying conditions and/or old age. No country is prepared to have a substantial increase in the number of people needing hospitalisation all of sudden. There are no ICU bed units available for hundreds of people coming all of a sudden. Specialized staff is also a problem. China had to urgently build around 10 modular hospitals to treat all the sick people.

I agree there's no need to panic, but people MUST understand the necessity to avoid social interaction. The main objective of self isolation is to slow down the spread of the disease so the Health Systems of the countries can cope with the inevitable increase in the number of people needing attention.

Italy is the perfect example of what happens when a health system gets completely overwhelmed. Add to that an already aged population and you have the equivalent of a B777 full of people dying everyday due to this damn virus.

[cats_five]

<snip>
Clear all cookies from the Washington Post.
Bonus preventative measure: Block new cookies from Washington Post.

Thanks will do,

[PAXboy]

Ebola self limits because it becomes rapidly visible and kills very fast. CV19 does the opposite.

Many people misunderstand that:- Humans know that people die from old age, cancer, flu, car prangs, drowning and countless other causes. These are all known and factored by each person as they grow up. They understand the dangers of smoking or being in a car etc.

What they find frightening is a NEW disease that they have never heard of that can be transmitted through the air by someone you meet for a few minutes in a shop. That disease does not have to kill you to take away your job and your ability to live any kind of life similar to the one you know.

THAT is why there is panic and the need for decent govt, which is lacking in several places of the world. Despite all the warnings of global pandemics in the last 20 years, how many govts were ready to respond?

Airlines (and all corporates) are asking for money because that's all in the old rule book. The OLD rule book. There are no rules for this 21st century Pandemic.

[cats_five]

UK population is 65,000,000 give or take.

4% of that is 2,600,000 who will therefore catch the virus if left unchecked (no quarantining etc)

Mortality rate is 2% which gives a death toll of 52,000 in UK using your figures.

US has a population of 327.2m which gives them a potential death toll of 261,760. Again using your figures.

The Flu season has been in full swing for a few months and Covid19 is playing catchup but is far more of a threat that flu which has a mortality rate of 0.1%

And we have a moderately effective vaccination against the flu which in the UK is free to over 65s, pregnant women, carers, and people with a list of chronic condition, asthma being just one example. Unfortunately uptake isn't always what it could be. People who don't get a free jab can get one cheaply at a pharmacy.

[Oh gaim]

So do we think the tinfoil hat wearing anti-vaxers will be relying on crystals and homeopathy to protect their kids etc when eventual vaccine does arrive?

[fergusd]

And we have a moderately effective vaccination against the flu which in the UK is free to over 65s, pregnant women, carers, and people with a list of chronic condition, asthma being just one example. Unfortunately uptake isn't always what it could be. People who don't get a free jab can get one cheaply at a pharmacy.

The 4% figure is bunkum, think 40%->60% . . . 4% is a non event, many sources now predicting (FWIW) up to 70% population infection rates without extremely draconian isolation measures which will go on for many months and which probably cannot be tolerated by the liberal west . . . not so much of a problem in China for example.

Secondly the point about Influenza immunity through vaccination is very relevant, many of those who influenza does not kill would not survive without vaccination, that same demographic are under the most risk now.

Lots of people will die in this event, and if no vaccine is developed, lots of people will die when it comes around again, which it almost certainly will . . . see Spanish Flu for a reference model for how these things tend to work . . .

[Paul852]

Italy is the perfect example of what happens when a health system gets completely overwhelmed. Add to that an already aged population and you have the equivalent of a B777 full of people dying everyday due to this damn virus.Given that 4-5 777s of old people die every single day in each of the UK and Italy and that many of the people on your 777 would otherwise have been on one of those 4 or 5 others then I don't see this as the such a big deal.

[Smooth Airperator]

We are just delaying the inevitable. Boris accused anti-Brexiteers of dithering and delayiing, and I know it's hard but the same thing is being done in order to maintain short term harmony during this virus outbreak. This harmony won't last in my opinion. The food stockpiling and empty shelves issue is not being taken seriously enough. 3rd day in a row we can't find any flour, bread or eggs. The queue at the butchers was an hour long and we're down to the last pack of loo roles with not a single one to be seen in the 3 supermarkets within a 2 mile radius. Forget anything fancy like anti-bac wipes and gels.

There is no water-tight solution and someone somewhere will be massively inconvenienced or have their well-being seriously impacted. I'm happy to be ridiculed but here's what I think will work. For 4 weeks, we should close every office, factory (except for those related to food), school, club, venue, shop, outlet and restaurant (allowing takeaways). Only supermarkets, local grocery stores and pharmacies should remain open and therefore only those workers should be out. If it's not related to food or health, it needs to close. Activate the army to support and strengthen the logistics and supply chain by ensuring food deliveries are getting through to the supermarkets. In fact, get them to help stock the supermarkets and provide support to the staff at supermarkets to deal with any ****. Registered volunteers, the army and police can also help ensure food is delivered to the sick and lonely.

The population must stay in doors with only one designated person allowed to go out once a day to buy food. This can't be enforced in the UK though it was in China thanks to AliBaba and Tencent apps tied to people's IDs.

All bills, mortgage and loan repayments and rents should stop for a month. Each week, advise people to spring clean and disinfect every inch of their house and if they haven't already to wash every clothing item, bit of cloth and linen they've used that week.

Councils should disinfect streets and public places (visiting the same spot once a week). Garbage collection should continue and even be doubled if possible.

First we ridiculed China's measures and felt sorry for those poor people kicking and screaming as police picked them up to take them to hospital and as entire apartment complexes were boarded up. Now we marvel at the fact that outside of Hebei (Wuhan) there are literally a handful of cases in each of other provinces according to Johns Hopkins. Fine that's probably a BS figure, but even if you multiply it by 10, it's still a marvelous accomplishment. It seems deeply worrying we are not prepared to replicate this strategy because we are "liberal" and "free". Those concepts, whilst truly wonderful, will become meaningless as panic grows even more and riots take place (Riots in city centers happened because some druggy roughneck got shot by the police, that pales nothing in comparison to this).

[ShortfinalFred]

Reported by The Irish Independent online. Thoughts with all involved.
John MulliganMarch 18 2020 03:51 PM

“Connect Airways, the holding company behind Dublin-based Stobart Air, which operates the Aer Lingus Regional service, has fallen into administration in the UK, the Irish Independent has learned.

The move is linked to the recent collapse of Flybe. UK-based Flybe was also part of Connect Airways.

The administration means that accountancy firm EY now controls Connect and 49pc of Stobart Air. The other 51pc of Stobart Air is owned by its more than 400 staff.

Connect Airways is 30pc-owned by the listed UK Stobart Group. Virgin Travel Group, a subsidiary of Virgin Atlantic, also has a 30pc stake, while US firm Cyrus Equity Partners owns 40pc.

Yesterday, Stobart Group, whose CEO is Warwick Brady, warned investors that it’s evaluating how to manage liabilities it has to Stobart Air”.

[VariablePitchP]

We are just delaying the inevitable. Boris accused anti-Brexiteers of dithering and delayiing, and I know it's hard but the same thing is being done in order to maintain short term harmony during this virus outbreak. This harmony won't last in my opinion. The food stockpiling and empty shelves issue is not being taken seriously enough. 3rd day in a row we can't find any flour, bread or eggs. The queue at the butchers was an hour long and we're down to the last pack of loo roles with not a single one to be seen in the 3 supermarkets within a 2 mile radius. Forget anything fancy like anti-bac wipes and gels.

There is no water-tight solution and someone somewhere will be massively inconvenienced or have their well-being seriously impacted. I'm happy to be ridiculed but here's what I think will work. For 4 weeks, we should close every office, factory (except for those related to food), school, club, venue, shop, outlet and restaurant (allowing takeaways). Only supermarkets, local grocery stores and pharmacies should remain open and therefore only those workers should be out. If it's not related to food or health, it needs to close. Activate the army to support and strengthen the logistics and supply chain by ensuring food deliveries are getting through to the supermarkets. In fact, get them to help stock the supermarkets and provide support to the staff at supermarkets to deal with any ****. Registered volunteers, the army and police can also help ensure food is delivered to the sick and lonely.

The population must stay in doors with only one designated person allowed to go out once a day to buy food. This can't be enforced in the UK though it was in China thanks to AliBaba and Tencent apps tied to people's IDs.

All bills, mortgage and loan repayments and rents should stop for a month. Each week, advise people to spring clean and disinfect every inch of their house and if they haven't already to wash every clothing item, bit of cloth and linen they've used that week.

Councils should disinfect streets and public places (visiting the same spot once a week). Garbage collection should continue and even be doubled if possible.

First we ridiculed China's measures and felt sorry for those poor people kicking and screaming as police picked them up to take them to hospital and as entire apartment complexes were boarded up. Now we marvel at the fact that outside of Hebei (Wuhan) there are literally a handful of cases in each of other provinces according to Johns Hopkins. Fine that's probably a BS figure, but even if you multiply it by 10, it's still a marvelous accomplishment. It seems deeply worrying we are not prepared to replicate this strategy because we are "liberal" and "free". Those concepts, whilst truly wonderful, will become meaningless as panic grows even more and riots take place (Riots in city centers happened because some druggy roughneck got shot by the police, that pales nothing in comparison to this).


Agree with everything you’ve said :D

[ILS27LEFT]

Agree with everything you’ve said :D

I said basically the same many days ago but everybody was laughing at me. Riots are getting closer.

[Yeehaw22]

Nobody really believed me...now it is happening.

well done. Gold star. Maybe you should get a job in the government.

[wigbam]

Too often nowadays I hear is "government should do this" and "government should do that". And what happened to individual responsibility and critical thinking? If you were not able to see where this whole thing was going and making necessary preparations for you and your family in advance (even as late as two/three weeks ago) then you haven't been paying attention. A few extra loo rolls would have been a good start.

Population lockdown in hope of getting rid of the CV-19 would not work. It will re-appear as soon as the lockdown is lifted. Unless, of course, you totally northkoreanise yourself and shutdown all borders for years. Hence whatever Europe is doing now is akin to hanging oneself in order to prevent catching a cold (pun intended). These measures will no doubt be successful in killing the economy while perhaps slow down the spread of the virus at best. The economic ramifications (i.e. people suffering and dying) from the shutdown will be far worse than from the virus itself. And we are already beginning to see that with all those bankruptcies, redundancies, pensions disappearing etc.

The only sensible approach is to accept CV-19 as a new reality and attempt to mitigate its spread which is what UK and US so far is trying to do - encourage(enforce?) groups at risk (seniors, people with pre-conditions etc.) to self-isolate perhaps with some help from the government but let the healthy majority continue spinning the economic wheel while taking certain pre-cautions.

[vermont]

Too often nowadays I hear is "government should do this" and "government should do that". And what happened to individual responsibility and critical thinking? If you were not able to see where this whole thing was going and making necessary preparations for you and your family in advance (even as late as two/three weeks ago) then you haven't been paying attention. A few extra loo rolls would have been a good start.

Population lockdown in hope of getting rid of the CV-19 would not work. It will re-appear as soon as the lockdown is lifted. Unless, of course, you totally northkoreanise yourself and shutdown all borders for years. Hence whatever Europe is doing now is akin to hanging oneself in order to prevent catching a cold (pun intended). These measures will no doubt be successful in killing the economy while perhaps slow down the spread of the virus at best. The economic ramifications (i.e. people suffering and dying) from the shutdown will be far worse than from the virus itself. And we are already beginning to see that with all those bankruptcies, redundancies, pensions disappearing etc.

The only sensible approach is to accept CV-19 as a new reality and attempt to mitigate its spread which is what UK and US so far is trying to do - encourage(enforce?) groups at risk (seniors, people with pre-conditions etc.) to self-isolate perhaps with some help from the government but let the healthy majority continue spinning the economic wheel while taking certain pre-cautions.

People want the government to do something because we're forced to go into work despite where I live declaring a state of emergency! Boomer employers are ok telling office workers to come in during a pandemic! How ****** is that?

[the_stranger]

Too often nowadays I hear is "government should do this" and "government should do that". And what happened to individual responsibility and critical thinking? If you were not able to see where this whole thing was going and making necessary preparations for you and your family in advance (even as late as two/three weeks ago) then you haven't been paying attention. A few extra loo rolls would have been a good start.

Population lockdown in hope of getting rid of the CV-19 would not work. It will re-appear as soon as the lockdown is lifted. Unless, of course, you totally northkoreanise yourself and shutdown all borders for years. Hence whatever Europe is doing now is akin to hanging oneself in order to prevent catching a cold (pun intended). These measures will no doubt be successful in killing the economy while perhaps slow down the spread of the virus at best. The economic ramifications (i.e. people suffering and dying) from the shutdown will be far worse than from the virus itself. And we are already beginning to see that with all those bankruptcies, redundancies, pensions disappearing etc.

The only sensible approach is to accept CV-19 as a new reality and attempt to mitigate its spread which is what UK and US so far is trying to do - encourage(enforce?) groups at risk (seniors, people with pre-conditions etc.) to self-isolate perhaps with some help from the government but let the healthy majority continue spinning the economic wheel while taking certain pre-cautions.But what are you trying to say exactly?

Government is still in charge and if they command a lock down, no thing I can do.
My government is going for letting the virus do it's thing, but they try to slow of down/protect the weak by social distancing. Again, what can I do?

How would critical thinking and personal responsibility play into this?

[BeechNut]

Given that 4-5 777s of old people die every single day in each of the UK and Italy and that many of the people on your 777 would otherwise have been on one of those 4 or 5 others then I don't see this as the such a big deal.

Most of those people don't die in an ICU.

It will be a big deal for you if you have a heart attack or are critically injured in a car crash, and there are no ICU beds to accommodate you. I live in Québec. We have an average of 11.2 ICU beds per 100k population, a middle-of-the-pack number for Western democracies. Now let's assume 10% of that population get infected, and 5% of those require ICU care (I believe that's the actual number, plus or minus). That's 10k infected people requiring 500 ICU beds. But you only have 11.

Yes, it is such a big deal.

[Tiziana]

....there is no other way.

[Beausoleil]

Too often nowadays I hear is "government should do this" and "government should do that". And what happened to individual responsibility and critical thinking? If you were not able to see where this whole thing was going and making necessary preparations for you and your family in advance (even as late as two/three weeks ago) then you haven't been paying attention. A few extra loo rolls would have been a good start.

Population lockdown in hope of getting rid of the CV-19 would not work. It will re-appear as soon as the lockdown is lifted. Unless, of course, you totally northkoreanise yourself and shutdown all borders for years. Hence whatever Europe is doing now is akin to hanging oneself in order to prevent catching a cold (pun intended). These measures will no doubt be successful in killing the economy while perhaps slow down the spread of the virus at best. The economic ramifications (i.e. people suffering and dying) from the shutdown will be far worse than from the virus itself. And we are already beginning to see that with all those bankruptcies, redundancies, pensions disappearing etc.

The only sensible approach is to accept CV-19 as a new reality and attempt to mitigate its spread which is what UK and US so far is trying to do - encourage(enforce?) groups at risk (seniors, people with pre-conditions etc.) to self-isolate perhaps with some help from the government but let the healthy majority continue spinning the economic wheel while taking certain pre-cautions.

Critical thinking suggests that this won't work.

Advice is that anyone advised to get a flu shot is in the "vulnerable " class. That's the over 65s plus others. Take up among the over 65s is around 70% and they make up ~20% of the population. They take about 2/3 of the advisory flu shots. Adding in the other 1/3, as a rough estimate, you end up with 30-40% of the population being in an at risk group and self-isolating.

To get to the point where there is sufficient general herd immunity to protect them (>60% of the total poulation), you need essentially everyone else to have it and become permanently immune to reinfection. There is no evidence that being infected once gives you lifelong protection (it's not automatic), but let's assume it does. (If it doesn't this strategy would be utterly wrong, so it's a gamble anyway.) To get total population herd immunity (so the vulnerable could come out of isolation) you would still have to deliberately infect robust people in a systematic way (since they would develop "internal herd" immunity while the vulnerable were isolated and not relevant to transmission).

You would have to keep leakage to the isolated group at a level that didn't, with the lower rate of severe cases from the over 30s but under 65s, overstress the NHS. If you keep the infection rate low enough to preserve the NHS from the effect of serious cases, it takes years to get to the herd immunity state in the UK.

The correct "critical thinking" strategy is to delay spread and work towards a treatment or a vaccine. This is likely to take 6-12 months. It may involve several periods of lockdown because, as you note, it is likely to re-emerge. However, governments are not likely to make the same mistake again, and will clamp down on cases. much faster, so lockdown could be more regional and/or shorter.

[TACHO]

I've read this thread from the start, lots of creative accounting and mathematical projections here. If only the World health organisation, CDC and other agencies had the expertise that is rampant here... oh that's right they do. The 'hysteria' here is a perfect reflection of what is the problem. It's not the virus causing the problem, its peoples reaction to the reporting of it.

I'm reading on the professional pilots rumour network a million and one opinions, from people that have absolutely no connection to the industry aside from they have sat in a seat (and that would be better hosted in jetblast)... and actually I'm tired of it. So I'm going to tell it like it is, as an actual airline pilot, and bring it back to topic.

The industry is on its arse and 12 months by now will have changed beyond all recognition. The 'virus' that is spreading and affecting the industry is not a new form of germ. It is the global infection of mass hysteria that has affected the economy and peoples behaviour to the point where 'society' and the normal rules of behaviour, decency and in fact common sense have broken down. This has affected air travel in combination with a great deal of other public services and amenities. The cause for that is the global availability and consumption of media, be that social, news or literary. In the last week I've watched my world fall apart, literally.... whilst I and everyone I know is actually quite healthy. I've lost my job, and there isn't another (globally) to realistically apply to, that hasn't been touched with the brush of 'covid-19'. Not the infection itself mind.... but the effect (mentioned above) that has damaged consumer confidence... to give an example, my local pub has sent an email describing the ramifications (prior to our friend boris's industry destroying speech) detailing their corona plan, when in fact theres never more than 5 people in there at the best of times...

The 'crisis' I've seen, isn't people being 'sick' around me in the sense of corona, it's actually a mild breakdown of society. Panic buying, mass hysteria and a media that is basking in days/weeks/months of easy work whilst the headlines write themselves, with a little massaging of course.

I'm watching as airlines draw themselves in, not to preserve customer, or their staff's health (regardless of touchy feely emails), but to make sure they are still around to take full advantage of the inevitable recovery and give the maximum benefit and profit to their shareholders. The world is broken, aviation is but a part of it as an industry most susceptible, not to corona, but to public perception.

In closing I will add, I'm not worried about the lack of toilet paper on the shelves. The daily mail seems to have no problem making extra prints to satisfy the public appetite, and nails for the bathroom are still readily available. I'll just have to make sure the print doesn't stick, or I'll end up with more sh!t than I started with.

Goodnight all and for those of you actually in the industry, I genuinely wish you nothing but the best.

[the_stranger]

I'm watching as airlines draw themselves in, not to preserve customer, or their staff's health (regardless of touchy feely emails), but to make sure they are still around to take full advantage of the inevitable recovery and give the maximum benefit and profit to their shareholders. The world is broken, aviation is but a part of it as an industry most susceptible, not to corona, but to public perception.

Maybe I am misunderstanding you, or we are in different parts of the world, but what do you expect from the airlines?

Aren't they doing what we all do in a crisis? Scale back expenses so to (hopefully) weather the storm?

The airline I fly for sees destination after destination close and they will stop 90% of the total flights. Why would you expect different?

Rest of the post I totally agree with..

[Jetscream 32]

To compound airlines already critical time here in the UK the £ has bombed against the dollar making lease rates a much more difficult pill to swallow

A USD $250,000 Lease payment today is costing £217,000 but at 1.35 on the 1st Jan it would of been £185,000 - that’s gonna hurt when you pro-rata it across the fleets value for different types...

[TACHO]

Maybe I am misunderstanding you, or we are in different parts of the world, but what do you expect from the airlines?

Sorry I was talking cross purposes there. What I was trying to say is, that at the moment, the industry is effectively critically sick. Any operator who survives this will be incredibly lucky. The reason for this however is not the virus. At least it was not initially. It is as a result of the public and media's response to the virus. Which in turn has damaged the economy. This is not a viral problem, but an economic one.

Further to my point I know of one (major) airline that is not just halting its operation, but trying its hardest, not to support its staff, but adding long term draconian changes to thier terms and conditions that are little more than opportunism whilst the chips are down. It has nothing whatsoever to do with Corona, it is in fact asking its staff to fund its recovery and make life cheaper whilst simultaneously pleading poverty to the government for a handout.... All the while it has data on its website, effectively boasting about how much spare cash it has... they want to preserve their profit at great cost to their workers, who are already struggling, and that isn't right. Socialism only exists in the upper echelons of business, beneath that it's still very much capitalist.

In summary I think the industry will be changed beyond recognition by the end. However Corona was merely the spark that ignited the absolute dumpster fire that is our economy, the rules of our economy, and how the world and business in particular operated. Corona wasn't the reason, all it has served is to highlight how already fragile, broken, corrupt and useless the system already was

[Pugilistic Animus]

Tacho do you mean the US airlines or European carriers or both? Also, why am I not surprised? I'm glad I escaped the airlines and got myself a job with security and all I have to do is run my mouth and do simple calculus

[TACHO]

Tacho do you mean the US airlines or European carriers or both? Also, why am I not surprised? I'm glad I escaped the airlines and got myself a job with security and all I have to do is run my mouth and do simple calculus

I was referring to a UK carrier, but it wouldn't surprise me if it is happening across the atlantic too. I can't say I blame you, and if there was something else I could do that would ensure a similar income right now I would jump as far from this industry as I possibly could. Sadly I've spend the last 18 years with my eggs in this basket, been through 3 job losses, and am unqualified to do anything else...

[ATC Watcher]

TACHO : In summary I think the industry will be changed beyond recognition by the end.
I agree with you on that one . The public will have changed too.
2-3 months of confinement at home ,as it looks like we will all soon or later be confronted with, will give time for people to look into their priorities. I doubt that when this over everyone will have the wish to travel for leisure a few times a year , or the money for it ..

[568]

Sorry I was talking cross purposes there. What I was trying to say is, that at the moment, the industry is effectively critically sick. Any operator who survives this will be incredibly lucky. The reason for this however is not the virus. At least it was not initially. It is as a result of the public and media's response to the virus. Which in turn has damaged the economy. This is not a viral problem, but an economic one.

Further to my point I know of one (major) airline that is not just halting its operation, but trying its hardest, not to support its staff, but adding long term draconian changes to thier terms and conditions that are little more than opportunism whilst the chips are down. It has nothing whatsoever to do with Corona, it is in fact asking its staff to fund its recovery and make life cheaper whilst simultaneously pleading poverty to the government for a handout.... All the while it has data on its website, effectively boasting about how much spare cash it has... they want to preserve their profit at great cost to their workers, who are already struggling, and that isn't right. Socialism only exists in the upper echelons of business, beneath that it's still very much capitalist.

In summary I think the industry will be changed beyond recognition by the end. However Corona was merely the spark that ignited the absolute dumpster fire that is our economy, the rules of our economy, and how the world and business in particular operated. Corona wasn't the reason, all it has served is to highlight how already fragile, broken, corrupt and useless the system already was

Totally agree with you.
Pity the finance sectors, government et al don't see this. I for one don't have much time for economists either. My dear gran used to say "if economists want a recession they can build one".

[Paul852]

2-3 months of confinement at home ,as it looks like we will all soon or later be confronted with, will give time for people to look into their priorities. I doubt that when this over everyone will have the wish to travel for leisure a few times a year , or the money for it ..It will also dramatically increase cases of domestic violence injuries and deaths.

[fdr]

No this isn't a B737 Max FDR readout. But the outcome for Boeing looks to be shaping up to be the same.

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/660x410/boeing_share_price_b2a1796adf1e2b5c6ea0bde7389398b1a8d6a34f. jpg
Lordy.

It's not junk bond, but, ouch. Presumably those that claim credit on the way up continue their claim to the Split S?
It's heading towards a buying opportunity. Not quite yet, but not far off. Check out their cash per share, and the value of their programa that aren't in strife. That takes a bit more digging, they have had a year to remember.

Its one of the few times that a stock market ticker has had need of a GPWS Mode I warning...

[kontrolor]

Sorry I was talking cross purposes there. What I was trying to say is, that at the moment, the industry is effectively critically sick. Any operator who survives this will be incredibly lucky. The reason for this however is not the virus. At least it was not initially. It is as a result of the public and media's response to the virus. Which in turn has damaged the economy. This is not a viral problem, but an economic one.

Further to my point I know of one (major) airline that is not just halting its operation, but trying its hardest, not to support its staff, but adding long term draconian changes to thier terms and conditions that are little more than opportunism whilst the chips are down. It has nothing whatsoever to do with Corona, it is in fact asking its staff to fund its recovery and make life cheaper whilst simultaneously pleading poverty to the government for a handout.... All the while it has data on its website, effectively boasting about how much spare cash it has... they want to preserve their profit at great cost to their workers, who are already struggling, and that isn't right. Socialism only exists in the upper echelons of business, beneath that it's still very much capitalist.

In summary I think the industry will be changed beyond recognition by the end. However Corona was merely the spark that ignited the absolute dumpster fire that is our economy, the rules of our economy, and how the world and business in particular operated. Corona wasn't the reason, all it has served is to highlight how already fragile, broken, corrupt and useless the system already was

true, and not valid only for aviation, but other fields of industry. And it is getting worse in the future...SARS is just a beginning....nobody knows for instance what creatures from the past are waiting in the permafrost...which is melting...

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/mar/18/tip-of-the-iceberg-is-our-destruction-of-nature-responsible-for-covid-19-aoe

and to people who are dissmissing Covid-19 death rate - SARS Cov-2 is spreading much faster and aggresivly as influenza virus and can bring people with underlaying conditions to their premature death. Comparing flu with SARS spread is just plainly mad and irresponsible.
Imagine SARS type virus spread with EBOLA, where deat rate is 90%...

[fdr]

In closing I will add, I'm not worried about the lack of toilet paper on the shelves. The daily mail seems to have no problem making extra prints to satisfy the public appetite, and nails for the bathroom are still readily available. I'll just have to make sure the print doesn't stick, or I'll end up with more sh!t than I started with.

Goodnight all and for those of you actually in the industry, I genuinely wish you nothing but the best.

My sides are aching from laughter. Thanks T.

I've been looking at the TV while Fox news is running and trying to find a way to supplement the toilet paper scarcity.

Odd thing,... toilet paper?

really?

I mean to say, if you do a warm fuzzies leadership vignette, and you have 12 things to take to the desert Island, I'm sorry, toilet paper doesn't get a mention. I'll take the girl, the $5 note, the fillet mignon, the Cupano Brunello di Montalcino, 2002, the satphone, the solar still, probably an FN 5.7, a GPS, a piezo lighter, and a double sleeping bag. And a girl, and flares. Toilet paper is not on the list. So we get a bug, admittedly a rather nasty, escape the sandpit type of bug, that doesn't usually cause dysentery, If I have double pneumonia, the last of my worries is a clean butt. If I have septicaemia, the problem is on the inside, not on the outside.. If my cat sees the toilet paper roll, then it becomes discombobulated, and more of a model of fractal geometry at play... Nope.... not sure what the fuss is about. If they had gone for the biltong first, then I would indeed be worried.

[kontrolor]

toilet paper is for many people psychological link to civilisation. Ergo - no toilet paper = end of civilization.

[Dan_Brown]

Not IMHO. When I arrived in North Africa, there wasn't a toilet roll in sight. However we had bdays?. There was a plastic jug full of water within easy reach. That, was better than smearing sh&t all over your backside, using toilet paper. The classy ones had copper tubing, pointed at your backside, with a valve. Get the pressure right and your you know what, in the right position, it was quiet a thrilling experience.

[Tick Tock Man]

Sorry I was talking cross purposes there. What I was trying to say is, that at the moment, the industry is effectively critically sick. Any operator who survives this will be incredibly lucky. The reason for this however is not the virus. At least it was not initially. It is as a result of the public and media's response to the virus. Which in turn has damaged the economy. This is not a viral problem, but an economic one.

Further to my point I know of one (major) airline that is not just halting its operation, but trying its hardest, not to support its staff, but adding long term draconian changes to thier terms and conditions that are little more than opportunism whilst the chips are down. It has nothing whatsoever to do with Corona, it is in fact asking its staff to fund its recovery and make life cheaper whilst simultaneously pleading poverty to the government for a handout.... All the while it has data on its website, effectively boasting about how much spare cash it has... they want to preserve their profit at great cost to their workers, who are already struggling, and that isn't right. Socialism only exists in the upper echelons of business, beneath that it's still very much capitalist.

In summary I think the industry will be changed beyond recognition by the end. However Corona was merely the spark that ignited the absolute dumpster fire that is our economy, the rules of our economy, and how the world and business in particular operated. Corona wasn't the reason, all it has served is to highlight how already fragile, broken, corrupt and useless the system already was

Logging in for the first time in years to applaud this post. An excellent summary, well done.

[covec]

Logging in for the first time in years to applaud this post. An excellent summary, well done.

Hear hear.

This version of capitalism does not work - too cut throat & loaded against employees - past & present (pensions?)

Mind Flightradar24 appears busy as ever!

[Cistor]

Logging in for the first time in years to applaud this post. An excellent summary, well done.

Absolutely spot on. There must be a change.

[poporange]

If you want a better place to live then embrace change!