Who will survive this and be here in 6 months ?

[Less Hair]

The reason for this however is not the virus. At least it was not initially. It is as a result of the public and media's response to the virus. Which in turn has damaged the economy.


Have to disagree. Didn't it start in China without free media western style, without public debate and still lockdowns and production stops?

[neville_nobody]

What we have is not capitalism but really pusedo socialism. The whole idea of capitalism is that you fail, not get a government bailout nor Chapter 11 protection.

If there was no bailouts, no chapter 11 and companies failed properly it would be a very different world.

Noone in big business is a real capitalist it is to hard core for them.

[wiggy]

Have to disagree. Didn't it start in China without free media western style, without public debate and still lockdowns and production stops?

It did start in China but once awareness of it escaped those confines and western broadcast and later social media got hold of it the process began..

I do agree with Tacho's post, however it will be interesting to how aviation recovers from this.

People have short memories and I bet some are already thinking that when this is all over and they have escaped from "lockdown" they will reward themselves by catching up on stag do's in Riga or hopping across the Atlantic for a weekend of Christmas shopping (Christmas 2021 at the very earliest IMHO) in New York..

[neville_nobody]

This is an eye opener. Capitalism's dirty secrets presented by a billionaire and beneficiary of the broken system. He talks about how modern Economics is not something something you can learn from a text book. It is a pseudoscience created by greedy people with power and influence over government and media and who do their best to make any alternative look like pure evil. Please watch to the end.

Just another Billionare building a moat around his wealth stopping people starting from nothing to being independently wealthy. Also alot of blurring of terms from what true free market ideas represent.

[The AvgasDinosaur]

Has this chaos really just served to expose just how utterly dependant the ‘free’ world is on the totally un free Chinese ?? Perhaps that is a lesson well worth learning, before we get cut off for real!
David

[TACHO]

Have to disagree. Didn't it start in China without free media western style, without public debate and still lockdowns and production stops?


Yes the virus started in China. As my post above says quite clearly, The Virus itself isn't the problem facing the world. This is now an economic problem. People are being laid off left right and centre not because they are sick (globally as a percentage the cases are actually very low), they are being laid off because the world and joe public is afraid of being sick. This has been caused purely by the media and peoples hysteria. To quote a wise man that I know. "They've kicked the snowball down the hill, and now have no way of stopping it". The media have given a germ a name, turned it into an entity and then released it. If no one had heard of corona, and there was just another type of 'flu' going around. Would we have known any different? Would the shelves be empty of toilet paper and other goods? The answer is no. It has become a self sustaining creature, that feeds on headlines... and I suspect the deaths globally caused by stress, depression and panic will eventually far outweigh those caused directly by the virus.

China is a different ball game. For the following reasons:

As I am sure you see aware it has a huge population, the normal rules of statistics lead to figures which sound big, but on a 'chinese' scale are not. I'll give you an easy example. If you have a skill or talent or condition that is 'one in a million'... in China there is, statistically, a thousand people exactly like you. So the 'outbreak' reported from china was hardly the catastrophe they were pushing.

Secondly China is a one off in the way it deals with things. The use of terms such as 'lockdown' as an effective means of dealing with the virus, might very well work in a society that is already oppressed and the individual only exists 'for the good of the state'... if we are going to copy china then let's get a few hospitals built in a week, I know I'm not doing anything else at the moment (I haven't got so much as a sniffle at the moment by the way, and I'm willing to make you a bet that neither have you). Did china face the problems of having a run (pun intended) on toilet paper and people decimating the shelves? Were people put out of work in china? Did their economy, whilst they were nailing shut their front door, say, 'oh by the way you still have to pay your landlord the rent'?

Thirdly, China's life blood is its manpower as a source of cheap labour. It is literally people powered. If there is even a small loss of production due to a mass cold, then the financial ramifications on economies of scale are colossal. They attempted to isolate it, not because of its fatality (which is actually very small). But because of its potential to spread in a very dense and overpopulated region that deals with vast amounts of production. I'm not going to add statistics here, but what I will say is if a percentage of a small number cant work, it isnt a big deal. If a percentage of a large number cant work, in a country that's life blood is the people churning out goods, then it is. They would have had the same reaction and taken the same measures if it was a bad case of gastric flu.

The fact that it originated in China with its closed media bears little significance, I dont understand your point. Western nations still report on global events and present their own 'spin' on it. The media in the UK still reported it, and as early as January they have been slowly ramping up the hysteria. To give a real life example BBC radio 1 'newsbeat' had an attention grabbing headline that announced 'Corona virus cases in Britain increase by one third'... yet when you listen to the report, which came at a stage where I think around 12 people in the UK were confirmed cases, it basically stated that 3 or 4 Britain's had returned back to the uk, after being diagnosed and isolated with corona elsewhere... they were not newly infected, and whilst statistically the number of cases on British soil had increased, the headline didn't match the facts.

To give you another example, The media have bandied around terms like 'outbreak' with reckless abandon (it was written in solid red on the front page of our national rag)... and perhaps more disgustingly 'superspreader' to describe a man who 'infected' other people. This 'superspreader' was so very much on deaths door with this plague like, flesh eating, zombie making, virus... that he went skiing! And then he so cruelly managed to infect his friends. I am almost certain that none of them died, but they may have had quite a bad hangover from the apres.

Anyway apologies for the long post. I'm off work at the moment you see, so need something to do. My new position won't take me in the current climate and my old position is also gone. As a now former captain, I'm about to apply for a job in a supermarket, as the economy still dictates that I must still pay my bills, and regardless of the 'dangers' of this virus, it seems that whilst we aren't allowed to go to the pub or fly in an aeroplane, it still is perfectly socially acceptable for the great unwashed to congregate en masse, in order to pillage the shelves to ensure they are better off than their neighbour... plenty of demand there. This is the true cost, symptom and infection of the 'corona virus'... not the sickness.

Stay well all.

[bafanguy]

Has this chaos really just served to expose just how utterly dependant the ‘free’ world is on the totally un free Chinese ??

Some people are thinking about that question. I have my doubts whether anything will actually change...the influence of money being what it is:

“When the virus peters out and the panic fades, China may be permanently rebranded and recalibrated by the world at large. Its trading partners will trust it far less to honor any commitments or to abide by any international agreements.”


“Some assembly plants will be shut down. Nations will be less trusting to outsource key industries to Chinese companies.”




https://www.amgreatness.com/2020/03/15/america-in-a-new-upside-down-world/

[qwertyuiop]

Has this chaos really just served to expose just how utterly dependant the ‘free’ world is on the totally un free Chinese ?? Perhaps that is a lesson well worth learning, before we get cut off for real!
David

That is Trump.s view but not the liberals, Dems, Labour Conservative etc. Too many senior Tories have their snouts in the Chinese trough. Labour and the Dems love China especially Biden.

[wigbam]

Well said TACHO , I totally agree. But unfortunately we are living in a (social)media driven world where an absolute majority relies and expects
somebody to tell them what to do and how to behave in preference of doing their own bit of critical thinking and research. And I see that media knows it and absolutely thrives on it! Just look at all those red flashing headlines and dedicated LIVE UPDATES pages everywhere where some random otherwise little known person finally gets his/her 5 minutes of fame yelling the "The End is Nigh". I feel as if it gives them a power trip of kind, so they sensationalise every aspect of information and then feed it to the public to get another high and boost their feeling of self-importance. On BBC, for example, not once have I seen an article with a level-headed analysis of the situation from likes of Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg or similar experts. Just fear-porn and 42 how-to different guides on how to wash your hands properly.

[dogsridewith]

(Thanks TACHO)

NPR this am had Dr. John Ionides, Stanford University Professor. Maybe a summary sentence of his short presentation was: "If you ruin the economy, that will result in millions of people dying for other reasons."
(The clip said he would be on at greater length later.)

California and Pennsylvania governors just shut down all "non-essential" businesses. In PA this includes "State Stores," which are the only places all spirits are sold. Also, a large fraction or majority of the wine, since they were the only source until recently. So wine drinkers will head for the large food stores where they will be exposed to orders of magnitude more people for much longer time periods. (State Store customers seem to know what they want and don't spend much time procuring it.) For spirits, it will be road trips to surrounding states...interacting at rest, fuel and food stops with other travelers.

(State Store profits and wine&spirit taxes are also a large source of State income, where sales and income taxes will decline, and unemployment benefits and special expenses will increase, in this economic recession.)

[cashash]

I'm not so sure that everything will go back to what it was before. The fragility of the supply chains that resulted from globalisation will make a lot of people think whether there is another way to do things, especially when it comes to food security and medical supplies. I think we may well see the re-emergence of 'national champions' that allow countries to keep vital business production within the country.

[ZFT]

The conclusion is as follows then. Freedom comes at a price. That price is to accept an all powerful but completely out of control and irresponsible media.

.....or not

[cats_five]

I'm not so sure that everything will go back to what it was before. The fragility of the supply chains that resulted from globalisation will make a lot of people think whether there is another way to do things, especially when it comes to food security and medical supplies. I think we may well see the re-emergence of 'national champions' that allow countries to keep vital business production within the country.

Supply chains have been vulnerable since we stopped doing everything in each village. But that made each village vulnerable to weather and/or crop disease.

[beardy]

If no one had heard of corona, and there was just another type of 'flu' going around. Would we have known any different? Would the shelves be empty of toilet paper and other


Oh I think we would have noticed an increased death rate. Consider the problems that the Italians are having in their hospitals.

[733driver]

Oh I think we would have noticed an increased death rate. Consider the problems that the Italians are having in their hospitals.

Thank you. I'm flabbergasted that this isn't obvious to some people.

[n5296s]

+1 for Tacho, well +0.5 anyway. imo it's a good idea to have a bit of social distancing etc to slow down the spread, to give the medical system time to prepare a bit and to get a bit more understanding of the virus before it becomes truly pandemic (which it will, no doubt about that).

I've been chatting (at a social distance of course, since we're on different continents) with my brother about it all. He happens to be a virologist. We've agreed that the big problem with all the extrapolations and forecasts of millions dead is that nobody has a clue how many people get infected, have an immune response, but never have symptoms and maybe never become infectious. It's clear that pretty much all children and <20 follow this path.

As for becoming less dependent on China etc - ain't gonna happen, because the lowest price always wins. My favourite subject in that regard is supply of rare earths. They are essential for all sorts of things (notably electric motors) and they all come from China. There are plenty of reserves elsewhere, but every time anyone tries to reopen a mine, they fail because it's cheaper to get it from China. (Actually the last attempt in the US went broke, got bought by a Chinese company, then shut down). Do governments say "this stuff matters, we'll subsidise local production"? Hell no. Rinse and repeat for everything else.

[MikeSnow]

Thank you. I'm flabbergasted that this isn't obvious to some people.

I agree. Calling it "just a flu" is like calling MCAS running amok "just a trim runaway". Interestingly, initial reactions here when the MCAS issues were revealed were similar: "it's just media/social media induced hysteria" or "why is this such a big issue, you just do X".

I think the people downplaying COVID-19 will change their tune when their local hospitals are overwhelmed and long queues start forming at the cemeteries, like it's happening now in Italy.

Yes, technically it's a flu. But a flu that is very easy to spread and has demonstrated its ability to overwhelm healthcare facilities very fast, and seems to be more lethal compared to regular flu. But, since exponential growth is unintuitive to most people, it's hard for many to understand that having a perfectly manageable number of cases today can turn into hell in just a week or so.

Yes, we shouldn't panic, as panic doesn't solve anything. Yes, we should try to protect businesses and the economy. But don't call it "just a flu". It really isn't. And in my opinion the authorities are not overreacting. In fact I think in most cases they are underreacting and not taking strong enough measures until it's too late.

[Timmy Tomkins]

I am amazed at those who still brand this Virus a media hype; oh that it were. Speaking to my doctor the other day he quoted his contacts globally (he is a well connectd multilingual man) and from all the affected areas the feedback is the same. In his words "This is a very nasty virus; make sure you don't get it. If you do, you may have no more than 2 weeks left; that is a common exoerience speaking to doctors in Italy, Iran and the Middle East" So, go on dismissing it as just another flue bug and ignore the restrictions and whilst you may survive you could pass it on to someone who won't. That seems rather selfish.

[uberwang]

According to the CDC, 3,000 people have died from the Covid19 virus but 20,000 people have died from Flu in the current season.

According to a virologist on the radio yesterday: 1/5 of people exposed will catch Covid19. Only 1/5 of those will display symptoms. So that's 4% of people who have been exposed, by my maths, or 1 in 25. Of those, most will just have a fever and a dry cough.

Time to stop panicking.

Wash your hands - with water and soap - more than usual and take multi vitamins and minerals.

I mean quotes like this were where we can start separating the smart from the less so. So much more to it.. UK and the USA. We’d to wake up fast.. and they are not alone.

[widebody69]

Oh I think we would have noticed an increased death rate. Consider the problems that the Italians are having in their hospitals.
What's happening in Northern Italy is a example of what could happen in any region if precautions aren't taken. Media hype my arse, the stories coming out of there are frightening.

[widebody69]

I mean quotes like this were where we can start separating the smart from the less so. So much more to it.. UK and the USA. We’d to wake up fast.. and they are not alone.
+1. The flu is widespread and has killed 20k, covid has only reached a fraction of the population and has killed 3k. Not comparable. I can't understand why people still think this is over hyped when northern Italy is actually demonstrating in front of us what can happen in our own region. Was it a backlog of 132 bodies for a crematorium that can only process 25 a day? That's hardly business as usual ffs.

[lomapaseo]

This thread has run amok and has little to do with aviation and more to do with what makes the sky fall.

I caution about listening to false prophets and instead pay attention to applied science to a collection of facts taher than what-ifs or one-offs

Lets get back to the thread subject

[ILS27LEFT]

Bergamo is a lovely and very rich city in the North of Italy. Possibly one of the most efficient and beautiful towns on the planet. Bergamo even includes Unesco World Heritage sites. Top quality of life and highly productive across various industries. Very rich. Top of the top in Italy, highly efficient and highly organised. One of the best NHS in the world. Top Consultants. Top equipment.
Bergamo has witnessed military trucks moving coffins out of town. This means that the rest of the world is basically fuc**d.
All countries should take this virus very seriously and before it's too late or we will end up with millions of deaths. 9/11 will look like a non event vs Covid19. Wake up human race.

[Bend alot]

This thread has run amok and has little to do with aviation and more to do with what makes the sky fall.

I caution about listening to false prophets and instead pay attention to applied science to a collection of facts taher than what-ifs or one-offs

Lets get back to the thread subject
Not sure there will be an airline in the world that will survive the next 6 months other than in name. The phoenix will be interesting to see.

[RexBanner]

Bergamo is a lovely and very rich city in the North of Italy. Possibly one of the most efficient and beautiful towns on the planet. Bergamo even includes Unesco World Heritage sites. Top quality of life and highly productive across various industries. Very rich. Top of the top in Italy, highly efficient and highly organised. One of the best NHS in the world. Top Consultants. Top equipment.
Bergamo has witnessed military trucks moving coffins out of town. This means that the rest of the world is basically fuc**d.
All countries should take this virus very seriously and before it's too late or we will end up with millions of deaths. 9/11 will look like a non event vs Covid19. Wake up human race.

Whats the mean age of the hospitalisations there and what’s the mode age of the deaths recorded? Genuine question.

[Longtimer]

Whats the mean age of the hospitalisations there and what’s the mode age of the deaths recorded? Genuine question.L.A. County confirms 61 new coronavirus cases, says median age among all patients is 47Yes, Young People Are Falling Seriously Ill From Covid-19In the U.S., 705 of first 2,500 cases range in age from 20 to 44.
And in Italy
More than 99% of Italy’s coronavirus fatalities were people who suffered from previous medical conditions, according to a study (https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_17_marzo-v2.pdf) by the country’s national health authority.

[RexBanner]

The media are spinning this regardless of how you regard the seriousness of the actual virus. I saw a banner headline the other day of a young guy in his twenties “killed by the Coronavirus”. Buried deeper down in the article somewhere it was revealed that he also had leukaemia (!) That’s disgusting journalism IMHO and is only feeding the frenzy, there’s a huge bit of context there that is being deliberately suppressed.

[gearlever]

From the study (Italy) mentioned by Longtimer:
(death toll men, women, total)

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/865x585/covid_italy_death_dbc11b91f8b5c3bd888712274bb3754ef7aaaa5d.p ng

[Pilot DAR]

Lets get back to the thread subject

Yeah... I take:

Who will survive this and be here in 6 months?

The "Who" to be an airline, rather than a person. Let's discuss the airline industry in this thread please. I know we all have our concerns ans beliefs with respect to the virus' effect on people, that's for a discussion elsewhere. Airplanes/Airlines/Pilot jobs here...

[RexBanner]

Bergamo is a lovely and very rich city in the North of Italy. Possibly one of the most efficient and beautiful towns on the planet. Bergamo even includes Unesco World Heritage sites. Top quality of life and highly productive across various industries. Very rich. Top of the top in Italy, highly efficient and highly organised. One of the best NHS in the world. Top Consultants. Top equipment.
And crap ATC...(to bring it back to aviation :})

[gearlever]

P.D.
Of course, sorry.

[Longtimer]

Yeah... I take:



The "Who" to be an airline, rather than a person. Let's discuss the airline industry in this thread please. I know we all have our concerns ans beliefs with respect to the virus' effect on people, that's for a discussion elsewhere. Airplanes/Airlines/Pilot jobs here...
So why not moderate and move the non confirming spurious posts to another thread? Sort of sorting out the wheat from the chaff? Or maybe even change the title of the tread? Just saying. :)

[ILS27LEFT]

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/385x515/capture_1c9b37b23d429016d5d7fc528c7c709fc32c5bc4.png

[Running Ridges]

@ILS Does that refer to the median age of positive cases?

Assumed it was for deaths, but unless i'm missing something the table data contradicts that, median for that is ~79

[Loose rivets]

The "Who" to be an airline, rather than a person. Let's discuss the airline industry in this thread please. I know we all have our concerns ans beliefs with respect to the virus' effect on people, that's for a discussion elsewhere.

Throughout this thread the discussion has veered between the airlines and the pathology. The word Who? Whatever, there's one thing for certain, the hardware needs a fully functional crew. Staff wellbeing is paramount now, the virus and the world's strategies I'm sure are more important than one aircraft operator or another. An aviation site? Yes, but while this is not the biggest threat we've experienced, it is the biggest issue that we've actually had to cope with since the war.

Don't make a fuss . . . it's all the press' doing!? Hmmm, an odd thought about that. During the war people at home could gather together after the all clear. They had a pint and prayed in what was left of their churches. Togetherness - pretty well all they had. Now if anything, the press is helping to keep us apart, which counter to historic crises, is a good thing. But the sad thing is people are succumbing to the need for group comfort - and it could very well kill them. 'Bingo as usual tonight'. Awwww, they're old, they need the camaraderie. Fine, but don't dare call the NHS if you succumb. But of course, they will, and the NHS will respond. They're wonderful in these parts, but should not be put at risk by bewildering ignorance.

Beating my drum again about airborne droplets. In an untypically relaxed interview today, a virologist was answering questions while hugging is mug of tea. One thing leapt out at me was the minute numbers of viruses needed for an infection. It was an unexpected answer - 18, I think. They'd fit in the tiniest droplet. It is a very, very dangerous virus, not least of all because of the long incubation time hiding the danger.

Italy, lovely kissy, huggy and very verbose people are now singing operatically out of their windows. Oh, my. Sir Fred Hoyle would have a lot to say about the mist in the air. Going on his logic, dry or heavy rain is okay-ish, but a drizzle can hold a virus for hours. The air can be long range deadly.

[Pilot DAR]

So why not moderate and move the non confirming spurious posts to another thread? Sort of sorting out the wheat from the chaff?

Honestly, 'cause it's work.

[Chris2303]

In my not so humble opinion there is not one airline in the world that will grow to it's current fleet, and more importantly personnel, size when and if things get back to normal.

Greg Foran has already said that somewhere about Air NZ

[procede]

In my not so humble opinion there is not one airline in the world that will grow to it's current fleet, and more importantly personnel, size when and if things get back to normal.

Greg Foran has already said that somewhere about Air NZ

In that respect especially Boeing, with it's delayed MAX aircraft which airlines can cancel with no penalty, is in trouble. But I would even stay far away from shares in Airbus and Embraer at the moment. No order is worth anything if the underwriting entity has basically gone bancrupt.

[G-V]

And note that Germans do some creative statistics there.
If you had asthma and got COVID19 and then died - they count you as asthma death.
So reality is muuuch worse there.


&

What is your source? a feeling?

[ILS27LEFT]

Yes of positive cases, real time feed in here
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Infografica_20marzo%20ITA.pdf


Global live data:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Yes Germany is using a different criteria for deaths, this is to reassure population and limit panic however very misleading and it could even be counter productive in the long term. Nobody knows at this stage. Italy is including all deaths due to Covid-19 including comorbidities.

[ATC Watcher]

Yeah... I take:



The "Who" to be an airline, rather than a person. Let's discuss the airline industry in this thread please. ...
As the one that selected this title, I confirm that by "Who" I meant our industry , i.e. airlines , ATC service providers , maintenance, ops, airports aircraft manufacturers,, every entity that will be affected by this unprecedented crisis. Of course it implies directly people , us.. That is what I wanted to discuss here instead of medical /scientific data which we can all find everywhere else.
We hear right now a lot about the airlines , plans and Boeing going down, etc. but every other part or the system is or will be deeply affected .

ATC is really my area of expertise, and I've been there long enough to have seen a few of those crises , including the PATCO strike in 81, so here is my prediction for 6 months from now::

Running cargo ops which seems to be ( at least today , things change by the hour almost) where the traffic will be in the next few months . To maintain this a functioning ATC needs to be in place. Mots of the service providers are privatized or semi privatized , Without the pax revenue, and the traffic down 50 to 90 % , many ANSPS will not be able to maintain a full workforce on payroll. Some countries might ( or will) re-nationalize their ATC but probably then it will be re-sized to the actual demand. That fact , plus a few virus casualties will probably mean that more than half the current controllers might not be longer employed by the end of the year.
But the system will work for the current low demand over the next 6 months.
But after, in 6 months from now ? I will dare to say, based on previous experience, that over half of those send -off controllers will look for another occupation and will never come back . To recruit and train new ones is a matter of years not months.,. so even if we survive that crisis financially and let's say only 10 -20 % of us , people, will be disabled by the virus , our numbers actually valid on the job will be much lower, My point is that, even if the demand is back , the infrastructure might not be there any longer to sustain that and it will take years , it not decades, to rebuild the situation we have left a few months ago ..

Let's hope I am wrong ..

[ILS27LEFT]

Airlines, ATC, etc will be re-nationalized soon. It is actually good news for the industry.
In my opinion this virus will save the industry in the end as the present/previous model was only based on greed and not sustainable.

In Wuhan for the first time people can hear the birds singing and see the clear skies, I think this virus is Mother nature taking full control back and therefore fixing this broken planet.
WE SIMPLY CANNOT PRETEND TO IMPERSONATE GOD/NATURE. THE VIRUS IS MOTHER NATURE ASKING US TO STOP AND WE MUST LISTEN THIS TIME.

[hoga]

Italy will look like a walk in a park when **** hits the fan in the UK and USA.

Italy took extreme measures as soon as they had first confirmed case. UK and the USA are lagging far behind the reaction curve.

I'm with You. Chinese stats are basically irrelevant. Due to unconscious people in a cocpit (govuk) Health System has been given death sentence as UK should be closed
locked 2 weeks ago. UK is not far behind Italy good case circa weeks .

[I-AINC]

Airlines, ATC, etc will be re-nationalized soon. It is actually good news for the industry.
In my opinion this virus will save the industry in the end as the present/previous model was only based on greed and not sustainable.

In Wuhan for the first time people can hear the birds singing and see the clear skies, I think this virus is Mother nature taking full control back and therefore fixing this broken planet.
WE SIMPLY CANNOT PRETEND TO IMPERSONATE GOD/NATURE. THE VIRUS IS MOTHER NATURE ASKING US TO STOP AND WE MUST LISTEN THIS TIME.


Totally agree with you.

[midnight cruiser]

The question that governments will be asking in the next few days and weeks will be "Is the cure (lockdown and all the damage that goes with it) worse than the disease? (Which we'll probably catch in the end anyway)

The colossal collective blunder was to repeatedly turn a blind eye to the evil cauldron of mixing animal and human diseases in certain parts of the world. That done, the damage is going to be horrific, whichever path we take. The horse has bolted.

[Alpine Flyer]

According to the CDC, 3,000 people have died from the Covid19 virus but 20,000 people have died from Flu in the current season.

According to a virologist on the radio yesterday: 1/5 of people exposed will catch Covid19. Only 1/5 of those will display symptoms. So that's 4% of people who have been exposed, by my maths, or 1 in 25. Of those, most will just have a fever and a dry cough.

Time to stop panicking.

Wash your hands - with water and soap - more than usual and take multi vitamins and minerals.

As a virologist responding to the UK's initial plan said: small percentages multiplied by large numbers make for quite large numbers. Percentage-wise, 1% or less of lethality doesn't sound much but if you multiply it by a couple dozen million you end up with way more severely sick people than any country's health system can cope with (there aren't that many intensive care units around). Once you start running out of ICUs you have a lot of dead people in the equation as well. And to most people it make's a difference if Gran died because she was 80+ and "passed away in her sleep" or asphyxiated because the doctors at triage decided that someone younger had better chances of survival than Gran.

Here the government is heavily subsidizing short-time work and is doing everything to boost confidence despite shop/restaurant closures, etc. We get a payout to 80% of previous net and unemployment insurance (boosted with a government contribution) pays for all the time we don't actually work. This is not going to last forever and basically paid for with our own money (as workers pay the largest percentage of total tax revenue) but it helps to keep things going. Fingers crossed to still have an airline and demand once the virus spread has slowed....

[crunchingnumbers]

The question that governments will be asking in the next few days and weeks will be "Is the cure (lockdown and all the damage that goes with it) worse than the disease? (Which we'll probably catch in the end anyway)The economic fallout will be significant with unknown repercussions in every facet. Why don't some governments do what some small countries have immediately done.

Ask/force banks, credit card companies and all, to have a 6 month moratorium on all repayments and extend as needed until economies get back on their feet. This may bring a much better sense of support than a percentage of pay (or none at all). With current plans tax payers are self funding in effect , if not this generation certainly the next. It's not like lending institutions haven't earned enough in many cases. Deferment seems more practical and allows G'ments to more immediately provide stress relief whilst they work out the liquidity of the financial system for continued support of deferment. God knows they have the financial geniuses amongst them to work that out just as they do when they conjure up funding in so many other ways.

Doesn't solve everything for e.g. renters but for a great number of people it would certainly help.

[homonculus]

There are other threads for medical. This is about airlines. My crystal ball is just that but my thoughts are

1 lockdowns will be much longer than we think with clusters on releasing them. It may be Fall 2021 before we have a vaccine and manufacture enough - if the US grabs it all other countries will be infected and infect unvaccinated Americans....

2 Many businesses can bounce back. Banking. Restaurants and other small businesses that just start again. there will be loads of landlords trying to rent restaurant premises

3 After lockdown many of us will question business travel when we can avoid being treated like imbeciles in steel tubes. global warming will become an even bigger panic, and to be fair it will be because the scientists who will resolve it are locked down and lockdown will result in a massive population explosion which is the real cause. so demand for aviation will be weak.

4 There will be massive government debt. austerity will return and taxes rise. This will stifle risk taking and new business ventures, affecting business travel. Increased taxation reduces leisure travel.

5 Bringing machinery and personnel back on line is problematic. Aircraft wont have flown. Pilots wont have currency. Key workers in the training and command chains will no longer be with us due to Covid 19 or retirement and lack of recruitment.

Of course for those in the industry there may be a move back to the good old days. Salaries and terms and conditions of service may improve with shortages, less passengers may mean they are treated with respect etc etc

I shall look at this post sometime next year and see if any prediction is correct.

[flocci_non_faccio]

1 lockdowns will be much longer than we think with clusters on releasing them.

If any lockdowns go on for longer than the 12 weeks that's been mooted, talk of which airlines (or businesses of any type for that matter) will survive is irrelevant. We will see civil disobedience on a massive scale, total civil disorder, rioting, looting etc. In other words a total breakdown of society.

The question that governments will be asking in the next few days and weeks will be "Is the cure (lockdown and all the damage that goes with it) worse than the disease? (Which we'll probably catch in the end anyway)

I'm quite sure governments are already asking this question. I think it's pretty clear that the total collapse of the global economic system and the abject misery and untold deaths that it will cause is worse than this virus, at least in its current form. Of course, it's not particularly politically expedient to tell the electorate "Sorry, there's nothing we can do to help if you get the virus. Best of luck!"

[crunchingnumbers]

If any lockdowns go on for longer than the 12 weeks that's been mooted, talk of which airlines (or businesses of any type for that matter) will survive is irrelevant. We will see civil disobedience on a massive scale, total civil disorder, rioting, looting etc. In other words a total breakdown of society.



I'm quite sure governments are already asking this question. I think it's pretty clear that the total collapse of the global economic system and the abject misery and untold deaths that it will cause is worse than this virus, at least in its current form. Of course, it's not particularly politically expedient to tell the electorate "Sorry, there's nothing we can do to help if you get the virus. Best of luck!"

Stage 1 - Nothing is going to happen
Stage 2 - Something may be going to happen but we should do nothing about it
Stage 3 - Maybe we should do something about it, but there is nothing we can do
Stage 4 - Maybe there is something we could have done, but it's too late now

:)

[torvalds]

Stage 1 - Nothing is going to happen
Stage 2 - Something may be going to happen but we should do nothing about it
Stage 3 - Maybe we should do something about it, but there is nothing we can do
Stage 4 - Maybe there is something we could have done, but it's too late now

:)

yep, that sounds about right

perhaps the next stage is
Stage 5 - standing by until the next "event", then return to Stage 1

[Longtimer]

Honestly, 'cause it's work.
I used to moderate a forum so I can understand :)

[Chris2303]

3 After lockdown many of us will question business travel when we can avoid being treated like imbeciles in steel tubes. global warming will become an even bigger panic, and to be fair it will be because the scientists who will resolve it are locked down and lockdown will result in a massive population explosion which is the real cause. so demand for aviation will be weak.

Especially since a lot of businesses are working from home and using Skype and other such tools for their meetings. The longer this lasts the less chance of returning to what we currently see as normality as the emergency measures will have become normality.

[a1anx]

The question that governments will be asking in the next few days and weeks will be "Is the cure (lockdown and all the damage that goes with it) worse than the disease? (Which we'll probably catch in the end anyway)

The colossal collective blunder was to repeatedly turn a blind eye to the evil cauldron of mixing animal and human diseases in certain parts of the world. That done, the damage is going to be horrific, whichever path we take. The horse has bolted.
You could be right. The particular part of the world to which you might be alluding is a clear and present danger.

[ILS27LEFT]

Working for a national carrier used to be a privilege whilst dignity was guaranteed through good working conditions and decent salaries. Same for working in a major hotel or at any airport. Working conditions used to be fair, work life balance was not even an issue. Generally speaking working was a pleasure and workers in the travel industry and hospitality were generally very happy. Aircrafts were rarely full as the price of an air ticket was affordable only by a minority. Flying was a pleasure, happy customers together with happy pilots and cabin crew. Happy ground staff, dispatchers etc basically a nice industry to be in. If this virus will mean going back to nationalization of carriers then I am happy. I will not miss the present race to the bottom where the newest airline workers are modern slaves, overworked, stressed and underpaid. It is time to reconsider the present model as capitalism has clearly gone too far. The real problem is not Covid19 in Italy. The real problem will be the rest of the world, e.g. Africa for a multitude of reasons but then also some of the richest Western countries like the USA where extreme capitalism has created a society on the edge and this virus will be the 1st real test and we will soon find out if such a greedy and unfair system can sustain a crisis of this magnitude within such a polarised society where the few very rich are surrounded by millions of very poor. An economic downturn of unprecedented magnitude could trigger civil unrest. This is why huge cash injections by governments will be absolutely necessary to avoid a full meltdown in the economy but also to avoid civil war.
In 6 months only those helped by the governments will survive. All the rules of standard capitalism are out of the window since around 2 weeks ago.

[gearlever]

Spot on ILS27LEFT :D

[568]

Working for a national carrier used to be a privilege whilst dignity was guaranteed through good working conditions and decent salaries. Same for working in a major hotel or at any airport. Working conditions used to be fair, work life balance was not even an issue. Generally speaking working was a pleasure and workers in the travel industry and hospitality were generally very happy. Aircrafts were rarely full as the price of an air ticket was affordable only by a minority. Flying was a pleasure, happy customers together with happy pilots and cabin crew. Happy ground staff, dispatchers etc basically a nice industry to be in. If this virus will mean going back to nationalization of carriers then I am happy. I will not miss the present race to the bottom where the newest airline workers are modern slaves, overworked, stressed and underpaid. It is time to reconsider the present model as capitalism has clearly gone too far. The real problem is not Covid19 in Italy. The real problem will be the rest of the world, e.g. Africa for a multitude of reasons but then also the richest Western countries like the USA where extreme capitalism has created a society on the edge and this virus will be the 1st real test and we will soon find out if such a greedy and unfair system can sustain a crisis of this magnitude within such a polarised society where the few very rich are surrounded by millions of very poor. An economic downturn of unprecedented magnitude could trigger civil unrest. This is why huge cash injections by governments will be absolutely necessary to avoid a full meltdown in the economy but also to avoid civil war.
In 6 months only those helped by the governments will survive. All the rules of standard capitalism are out of the window since 2 weeks ago.

All so very true.
I would also like to add that in times past there wasn't "social media" AKA "self gratification" and the media was headed by editors who were well versed in art of journalism, not some Muppet incapable of stringing to words together.

[b1lanc]

Stage 1 - Nothing is going to happen
Stage 2 - Something may be going to happen but we should do nothing about it
Stage 3 - Maybe we should do something about it, but there is nothing we can do
Stage 4 - Maybe there is something we could have done, but it's too late now

:)
Thank you Humphrey - best darn series on the tele ever!

[wilsr]

Those who seem to think this virus is relatively innocuous should look at the live statistics:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Those of us who are past "a certain age" are feeling VERY vulnerable.

[Sqwak7700]

It is time to reconsider the present model as capitalism has clearly gone too far. The real problem is not Covid19 in Italy. The real problem will be the rest of the world, e.g. Africa for a multitude of reasons but then also some of the richest Western countries like the USA where extreme capitalism

Sorry, but you are wrong on so many levels. The US does not have “extreme capitalism”. Bailing out industries that went heavily into debt by purchasing their own stock, is the opposite of capitalism. That is a form of socialism or fascism.

The problems in the airline industry, or pretty much most industries in the US, is that government has removed the moral hazard and risk. Bankruptcy protection, ”too big to fail” all that crap is NOT capitalism. And you don’t know what capitalism is if you believe otherwise.

Capitalism would let those businesses shut down and reorganize, and creative destruction, which is fundamental for capitalism and free markets to work, would result in better companies that are stronger and prepared to handle such an event like the one we are seeing.

Has Air Koriyo or Cubana ever made the list of dream companies to work for, or set the prime example in air service excellence? Thought not.

Hopefully the world will take this opportunity to get rid of the central banking and fiat currency experiment, as well as get rid of these bloated, inefficient bureaucratic governments. Two of the most efficient countries at dealing with this outbreak have been Singapore and Hong Kong. Both have minimal tax rates with small but effective governing, which is run more like a business than a political circus (for as long as China can keep out of HKG).

So don’t blame Capitalism, it does not exist in Europe or the US. Blame the corrupt, crony politicians that reduce your spending power through inflation while restricting your freedoms and bailing out their buddies in corrupt corporations. Some of these government clowns spend over 30 years in “public service”, with nothing to show for it except making life harder for people with real jobs like you and I. I say to them, get a real job. They would not last 1 week.

Sorry for the rant. Just hate seeing the innocent getting the blame when they aren’t even in the room.

[Smooth Airperator]

It's the ugly face of capitalism. Just as socialism can have an ugly face. But it all boils down to the old adage 'Absolute power corrupts absolutely' - the truest thing ever said in the history of mankind.

[torvalds]

Sorry, but you are wrong on so many levels. The US does not have “extreme capitalism”. Bailing out industries that went heavily into debt by purchasing their own stock, is the opposite of capitalism. That is a form of socialism or fascism.

The problems in the airline industry, or pretty much most industries in the US, is that government has removed the moral hazard and risk. Bankruptcy protection, ”too big to fail” all that crap is NOT capitalism. And you don’t know what capitalism is if you believe otherwise.

Capitalism would let those businesses shut down and reorganize, and creative destruction, which is fundamental for capitalism and free markets to work, would result in better companies that are stronger and prepared to handle such an event like the one we are seeing.

Has Air Koriyo or Cubana ever made the list of dream companies to work for, or set the prime example in air service excellence? Thought not.

Hopefully the world will take this opportunity to get rid of the central banking and fiat currency experiment, as well as get rid of these bloated, inefficient bureaucratic governments. Two of the most efficient countries at dealing with this outbreak have been Singapore and Hong Kong. Both have minimal tax rates with small but effective governing, which is run more like a business than a political circus (for as long as China can keep out of HKG).

So don’t blame Capitalism, it does not exist in Europe or the US. Blame the corrupt, crony politicians that reduce your spending power through inflation while restricting your freedoms and bailing out their buddies in corrupt corporations. Some of these government clowns spend over 30 years in “public service”, with nothing to show for it except making life harder for people with real jobs like you and I. I say to them, get a real job. They would not last 1 week.

Sorry for the rant. Just hate seeing the innocent getting the blame when they aren’t even in the room.

Exactly the case.

[ATC Watcher]

ILS27LEFT An economic downturn of unprecedented magnitude could trigger civil unrest. This is why huge cash injections by governments will be absolutely necessary to avoid a full meltdown in the economy but also to avoid civil war.
You are probably right on many points but I do not buy (yet) the civil war scenario, at least not in our democracies.

We tend to focus on UK and US here , but for me it is the other areas of the world which will be the most problematic. You can force people to say home and queue 1m from another to buy food in Germany , UK and possibly in parts of the US. But this is absolutely nonsense in Africa or even parts of India and Brazil to take only 3 examples. The social distancing is and will not be working here . That is the real long term worrying part, as then millions of people will try desperately to come where the food and the hospitals are ... You liked refugees from Guatemala. Afghanistan or Syria..? this will be on a totally different scale ...
On an optimistic note , in Italy the average age of deaths is 80 ,we not have the numbers for China , but it is also high age I was told. ( although probably less because life expectancy among poor Chinese in Wuhan is less than in Rich Lombardy ) ..
and the recovery rate is still above 90% , so , yes the world will be very different next year , with less old people around , but economy will restart , differently . but frankly I do not see a civil war coming up as long as there is enough food around and immigration is addressed and contained...

[Pilot DAR]

Posters.... I have deleted some recent posts, which really had little or nothing to do with the aviation industry. This is not a forum for discussions about health, society, nor political effects of the virus. Sure, those are each very worthy topics for discussion, just not here!

Please, before you click "reply" read what you've typed; does it center on the effects of the virus on the aviation industry? If not, please reconsider your post. This thread will not drift to being medical nor political centered...

One of your moderators...

[Longtimer]

It is amazing that some people want funding denied to certain airlines because they spent money buying back shares and then engaged in rewarding their brass. Somehow those folks seem to forget that those very airlines employ a large number of employees who, if the lack of funding causes the airline to fold, will lose their jobs. Seems like "cutting off your nose to spite your face" :ugh:

[jan99]

What's wrong with bankruptcy? New owners (the creditors) and new management. The airline will carry on, with most of its employees, if there is enough business. Otherwise not or pared down. As it should go in capitalism.

[Longtimer]

What's wrong with bankruptcy? New owners (the creditors) and new management. The airline will carry on, with most of its employees, if there is enough business. Otherwise not or pared down. As it should go in capitalism.
The history of airlines closing down does not support your theory.

https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/former-airlines/index.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_defunct_airlines

[jan99]

If the business of a particular airline is not viable then the airline ends indeed. Assets are sold. Employees must look for work elsewhere.
The government can support employees to help tide them over, but bankrupt companies must be let go. That is how it is supposed to work.

[WhatTheDeuce]

Can you think of any reasonable way of an airline to remain profitable in this crisis?

We are not talking about mismanagement or incompetence - it’s simply a question of the country trying to hibernate critical infrastructure and tens of thousands of jobs.

[dogsridewith]

Decades ago, the biggest business in my area went bankrupt. Then the principals bought it back at the bankruptcy sale.

[dead_pan]

What's wrong with bankruptcy? New owners (the creditors) and new management. The airline will carry on, with most of its employees, if there is enough business. Otherwise not or pared down. As it should go in capitalism.

Yes but the creditors (banks etc) will take a huge hit and may go bust themselves, what with everything else that is going on

[torvalds]

It is a bit childish (not insulting any of you particularly) to think, that after a crisis like this was over (hopefully in about 3-6 month time) on the following Monday we'll all just go back to work like nothing's happened. It is a mistake to imagine, that pumping X billions of FIAT confetti into failing private firms, would make a difference. Companies will disappear, people will suffer. Then we'll still end up with the interest payments to private central banks on trillions of confetti printed by them. I fail to see how the survival of current airlines (and air travel in general) becomes priority in the near term.

[FE Hoppy]

Has anyone compiled a list of airlines which have either stopped operating or announced a date?

[procede]

It is a bit childish (not insulting any of you particularly) to think, that after a crisis like this was over (hopefully in about 3-6 month time) on the following Monday we'll all just go back to work like nothing's happened. It is a mistake to imagine, that pumping X billions of FIAT confetti into failing private firms, would make a difference. Companies will disappear, people will suffer. Then we'll still end up with the interest payments to private central banks on trillions of confetti printed by them. I fail to see how the survival of current airlines (and air travel in general) becomes priority in the near term.

I honestly think the entire air transport industry is in a lot of trouble. If this takes too long and current limitations stay in place, demand for air travel could be down to the level of the 1960's. No one will want to buy any aircraft or hire any crew left over after any airline going bankrupt. This will also mean that no one will buy any new planes, because we have several hundreds standing around not being used, basically available for free.

[ferry pilot]

I honestly think the entire air transport industry is in a lot of trouble. If this takes too long and current limitations stay in place, demand for air travel could be down to the level of the 1960's. No one will want to buy any aircraft or hire any crew left over after any airline going bankrupt. This will also mean that no one will buy any new planes, because we have several hundreds standing around not being used, basically available for free.
Exactly what this thread is all about. I don't want to agree with your pessimistic outlook, and I wish I had a counter argument but I don't. I am sure we all look forward to hearing from anyone who does.

[AirportPlanner1]

A chap further up makes a point about Covid killing mostly older folk. This is true, and this itself will have a profound impact on certain parts of the market. Partly from a smaller market, partly a greater fear. Cruises, key amongst that age group, killed off. There goes a wedge of traffic. Florida, Arizona, Vegas etc, suddenly the sunbirds from the north aren’t coming. Benidorm, Costa del Sol etc. Could also fatally undermine tour operators who tend to have older demographic

[ILS27LEFT]

We all agree that this is the Mother of all Crises for the global economy and especially for all travel related businesses. The question of this post is about survival. Governments will save what must be saved to allow the economy to bounce back. This means that we will have to go back to nationalised airlines. No country can survive and prosper without a national carrier that can cover business essential routes, including cargo etc but also unprofitable routes must be covered e.g. domestically. Capitalism is much better than anything else however it is still not perfect in its present form and this virus will prove it. It is still the best system available to us however it can be greatly improved and it will be certainly enhanced after the virus has ended. The standard rules of capitalism cannot be applied during this crisis. We cannot end up with millions of unemployed and a very high % of companies going bankrupt. It would mean social unrest which will not be allowed on this occasion.

[etudiant]

Surely this crisis is the start of a golden age in aviation and global transport.
After this experience, no government is going to accept the current slipshod health system, the downside is just too high.
So I expect really effective viral health monitoring and countermeasures to become the norm. That will drag the other health and customs systems with it
With luck, we might be able to return to the pre WW1 era when passports were unheard of. and people could go anywhere as the spirit moved them.

[lomapaseo]

A chap further up makes a point about Covid killing mostly older folk. This is true, and this itself will have a profound impact on certain parts of the market. Partly from a smaller market, partly a greater fear. Cruises, key amongst that age group, killed off. There goes a wedge of traffic. Florida, Arizona, Vegas etc, suddenly the sunbirds from the north aren’t coming. Benidorm, Costa del Sol etc. Could also fatally undermine tour operators who tend to have older demographic

It aint the killing of us old folks that affect pilots. It's the short time but long enough impact of the younger working folks not flying that is the problem for this thread subject. It's bad enough that a large population will be on some kind of self isolation (14 days etc.) coupled with a similar population that will take a month or more to recover enough to fly.

[Mach E Avelli]

I'm tipping that when the dust finally settles, only a handful of mega airlines will remain. These will either have been nationalized, backed by middle east oil money, or resultant from take-overs and mergers. Some countries unable to afford their own national carrier will have to put pride and political differences aside and form alliances with like-minded neighbours to perhaps run one airline owned jointly by several governments.
Those countries which provide aid to poorer nations would do well to insist no aid money goes towards propping up unviable small airlines. Let them fail.
Would such mega airlines be efficient or profitable? Probably not - history tells us large aviation enterprises often do not run well because of infighting, bickering boards, bloated management structures, cronyism, corruption etc. But they will still be better placed to withstand losses than the public/private sector. Many investors have already lost their appetite for airlines, with more about to cut their losses and run.

[flocci_non_faccio]

I do tend to think that as and when restrictions are lifted, in the UK at least people will still want to go on holiday. It may well be though that travel habits go back to the old fashioned two weeks bucket and spade in the summer. That may bode well for the likes of TUI and Jet2.

[alf5071h]

The issue is not who, or what will survive, but what will the world look like after the pandemic. Within this we should consider what aviation might be required or be able to contribute, and with what expectation of how this would be achieved.
To varying extent there were preparations for this pandemic; these are being been severely tested, a stress test for the next one or similar.
So what is next, what do we have to be prepared for on a global level. Climate change is on the list, are we ready; floods, heat, starvation, and more pandemic.


The demands on aviation will be dictated by economics. People will still like to travel, but will they be able to afford it; will nations be able to afford aviation even if there is need. The situation post WW2 involved a lengthy period of recovery resulting in a very different world. The post pandemic world is unlikely to be of the same form or magnitude of change as post war, but it will be changed; to what, why, and when.
In considering when, the effect of climate change opposed to pandemic, is foreseeable, and as a defined point in time establishes a window for recovery post pandemic. This is not very long, and with weakened economic capacity to respond the most significant issue could be how individuals respond; and whatever the viewpoint is today, it will not be the same in six months.

[Bend alot]

I'm tipping that when the dust finally settles, only a handful of mega airlines will remain. These will either have been nationalized, backed by middle east oil money,

Oil money has been very limited for well over a decade probable more like 15 years when it was +$100 a barrel, it has long been around $50 a barrel. That is close to cost for many companies/countries, not sure there is much "oil money" left when we are in the $20's a barrel, having a price war and a vast reduction in demand for the product.

[krismiler]

After WW2 there was a boom in civil aviation, there will be another one as we come out of this. However it will be starting off a low base and it will take years to get back to 2019 levels.

[waco]

AA/ This is going to go on for a long, long time. It will not be over in 3 months. 1 year absolute minimum I think.

BB/ Until some form of practical vaccine is brought into widespread use its just going to get worse unless we adopt the Chinese approach of total shutdown.

CC/ The age of mass travel on the scale that was in place prior to this virus will not return for a very long time. If ever (I very much doubt it will). This is for a vast number of reasons not least off which is the global economic depression that will bite and bite very hard. People will be concentrating on food and shelter.

DD/ Once this is sorted we must address our complete economic and political approach to everything.

EE/ My goodness we need some leadership, especially in the UK. It will not come from our current PM Dominic Cummings nor from a 93 year old Head of State who along with her family has no idea of life in the real world.

FF/ I admit to some panic buying, two lovely bottles of malt whisky which I shall enjoy whilst I catch up on my reading and write my about my experiences over 33 years in the business which I doubt will see the light of day which is probably just as well.

GG/ Unless we get some strong leadership and proper organisation very soon. I dread the consequences that will follow!

[GeeRam]

We all agree that this is the Mother of all Crises for the global economy and especially for all travel related businesses. The question of this post is about survival. Governments will save what must be saved to allow the economy to bounce back. This means that we will have to go back to nationalised airlines. No country can survive and prosper without a national carrier that can cover business essential routes, including cargo etc but also unprofitable routes must be covered e.g. domestically.

Not just airlines..........I think that will have to carry over to the airports as well.

BAA got sold off, then that got forced to sell off by the competition regs, how many of these UK airports will survive this with no money coming in from Duty Free or landings fees etc.,etc....??

[ILS27LEFT]

Not just airlines..........I think that will have to carry over to the airports as well.

BAA got sold off, then that got forced to sell off by the competition regs, how many of these UK airports will survive this with no money coming in from Duty Free or landings fees etc.,etc....??

Yes absolutely. This is unprecedented, the entire concept of the free market taking care of the economy is out of the window because of COVID19 and this was well predicated by Bill Gates several years ago: only governments can save the day.
Luckily governments can nowadays generate instantly unlimited quantities of electronic money (QE) which is a huge advantage. The old risk associated to printing money vs higher inflation is also obsolete. We will be fine only because of Governments injecting unlimited cash into the system. The Internet is a factor as we now basically live in an E-Money society. If this happened before the web we would be in trouble, both due to the time needed to print in large quantities but especially huge difficulties in distributing the cash during a pandemic. E-Money huge advantage thanks to the web.Nearly all travel related businesses will be saved by Governments, but then also the rest of the economic system will be saved, including other sectors beyond travel as this is a tsunami that is already in the history books.
The rebound will be the Mother of all the rebounds especially if there will be a vaccine or widespread immunity which will happen eventually, I am confident the rebound will be massive and much quicker than what we think now, this will be true especially if the virus will be stopped through new measures including new anti viral treatments and then finally a vaccine.
QE seems easy now: Governments cannot do QE constantly otherwise we will all stop going to work and societies will collapse however unlimited QE is the only option during a war and this is certainly a global war with no other solution.

[cashash]

GG/ Unless we get some strong leadership and proper organisation very soon. I dread the consequences that will follow!


From who - who do you have in mind?

[waco]

From who - who do you have in mind?
…....that's the point I'm trying to make we lack credible effect leadership

[cashash]

…....that's the point I'm trying to make we lack credible effect leadership


But isn't that always the way?. In WW2 we started off with Chamberlain who many thought was insipidly useless, then we moved on to Churchill that many held the opinion was a warmongering drunkard, then in the 70's we had Sunny Jim Callaghan (Crisis? - what Crisis?), in the 80's we had strong leadership from the Iron Lady and half the country hated her!.

Have we every had credible effective leadership in a crisis?

[ILS27LEFT]

AA/

GG/ Unless we get some strong leadership and proper organisation very soon. I dread the consequences that will follow!

I agree this is a moment in history where strong leadership and proper organisation are going to be vital.
I think that all the leaders are struggling and this is normal as this is so unprecedented, I personally do not like the way some of the leaders are dealing with this crisis, some are are not fit for purpose during a crisis of this magnitude. We need real leadership like the one of the Italian PM Giuseppe Conte who is not a professional politician however he is very smart and very calm under pressure and he has been able to make very difficult decisions in a very short period of time.
We need proper leadership, I agree and this is urgent.
To remain within the topic of PPrune, this is a very significant emergency in each country. It is a bit like the well known aircraft that had just lost all the engines close to the Hudson river a few years ago, we all know that the exceptional calibre of the Captain definitely made the difference and saved all those on board, well COVID19 is very similar, we cannot have a below average Capt at the front instead we need a top of the top Captain (e.g. Sully=Giuseppe) or the plane will just crash somewhere due to wrong decisions being taken, or no decision at all or too late. Obviously this is my personal opinion, those leaders who could do quite well in normal circumstances maybe they are not suitable at all for this massive crisis due to their personalities which are maybe incompatible with this type of crisis. Hopefully they will be surrounded by more suitable personalities to handle this crisis and we might be fine in the end.
We basically need the best possible Captain in each country's cockpit, the best do not necessarily have to be in charge 24/7 but the various Head of Govts need the smartest minds very close to them and daily for constant valuable advice and speedy decisions.
We are in uncharted territory, standard procedures are not applicable, same as Capt Sully, he intentionally ignored all standard procedures and therefore saved all pax.
We need very smart, calm, intelligent leaders. Scientists will probably be even more crucial for a speedy resolution.

[still here]

I think right now we need to stand together, petty political arguments need to wait, we are in a major catastrophe, we need to be positive.

[scr1]

In these dark times I think this song from Israel is good

Bashana haba’a, neshev al hamirpeset venispor tziporim nodedot.
Next year we will sit on the porch And count all the migrating birds

Yeladim, bekhoufsha, yesakhakhu tofeset beyn habayit, oulebeyn hasadot.
Children on vacation will play catch Between the house and the fields

Od tire, od tire, kama tov yihye, bashana, bashana haba’a
You will see, you will see How good it will be
Next Year

Anavim adumim, yavshilu ad ha’erev veyugshu tzonenim lashulkhan.
Red grapes will ripen by evening And be served chilled to the table

Verukhot redumim, yis’u el em haderekh itonim yeshanim ve’anan.
Pleasant breezes will blow on to the roads Old newspapers and clouds

Od tire, od tire, kama tov yihye, bashana, bashana haba’a
You will see, you will see How good it will be
Next Year

Bashana haba’a, nifros kapot yadayim, mul ha’or hanigar halavan.
We will spread out our open hands Into the bright white light

Anafa levana, tifros ba’or knafayim vehashemesh tizrakh betokhan.
A white heron will spread force in light its wings And the sun will rise in their midst

Od tire, od tire, kama tov yihye, bashana, bashana haba’a
You will see, you will see How good it will be
Next Year

Bashana haba’a, neshev al hamirpeset venispor tziporim nodedot.
Next year we will sit on the porch And count all the migrating birds

Yeladim, bekhoufsha, yesakhakhu tofeset beyn habayit, oulebeyn hasadot.
Children on vacation will play catch Between the house and the fields

Next year

[still here]

well said bad times

[Peter H]

... unless we adopt the Chinese approach of total shutdown.

As a WHO official said in a recent interview with the New Scientist magazine ...

[shutdown] ...that's the hard part, but not the really hard part.

To actually stop the virus, [China] had to do rapid testing of any suspect cases, immediate isolation of anyone who was a confirmed or suspect case,
and then quarantine the close contacts for 14 days so they could figure out if they were infected. These were the measures that stopped transmission
in China, not the big travel restrictions and lock-downs.

[Fostex]

Indeed, surveillance is key, and that is where Europe is lacking. The high mortality rate in Italy w.r.t. other countries indicates that their community transmission is vastly under-reported.

The measures indicated this evening by the UK PM are both fair and sensible.

[Richard Taylor]

Indeed, surveillance is key, and that is where Europe is lacking. The high mortality rate in Italy w.r.t. other countries indicates that their community transmission is vastly under-reported.

The measures indicated this evening by the UK PM are both fair and sensible.
And overdue.

[alf5071h]

Richard, et al,
Anything said in advance of a pandemic seems alarmist.
After a pandemic begins, anything one has said or done is inadequate.

[Fostex]

No, Italy was a case study on what happens when containment and surveillance fail and community transmission runs rampant.

Ireland's response was a contrast to that of the UK for example and initial data seems to indicate less community transmission as a result.

[foxcharliep2]

To actually stop the virus, [China] had to do rapid testing of any suspect cases, immediate isolation of anyone who was a confirmed or suspect case,
and then quarantine the close contacts for 14 days so they could figure out if they were infected. These were the measures that stopped transmission
in China, not the big travel restrictions and lock-downs.

And this is what China did - compared to the West :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aZrdJjV4viI

[Ancient Observer]

For many years Aviation had a growth rate of circa 6% per annum. Various events have sought to change that - events such as the financial meltdown in 2008, SARS, 9/11 and so on. After a hiatus, Aviation resumed its growth rate. I suggest this will happen again, after about 18 months when a decent/proper medicine will come out to give most of the human race immunity from this virus. So by 2003 we will be back to a new normal.
The main risks to this are the virus adapting to fight the vaccine, and the vaccine availability being held up by greedy Companies. But the Governments should prevent the latter.
The most scary thing, in my view, is the various Western Governments becoming addicted to their new found spending powers, and to the other powers that they are currently working up.
Meanwhile, they will take their eyes off China and Iran. That is what causes me to worry.

[torvalds]

{...}
Meanwhile, they will take their eyes off China and Iran. That is what causes me to worry.
No longer worried about Russia? What's happened? I am devastated. If we worried about Iran and China then darn sure we must worry about Russia!

[TACQANAVIAVEC]

" The old risk associated to printing money vs higher inflation is also obsolete"

Utter nonsense, care to guess where all those computer generated billions released into the economy though the magic of QE went too? Asset bubbles baby!!! And although governments try to hide inflation by nit picking numbers everyone who buys stuff with their own money is well aware you are now getting less stuff for more $, this is called Shrinkfaltion. There's no free lunch, even in a digital world.

Although a vaccine could be here in record time that is still 6 - 12 months away which means it will be late to the party, any treatment will only help decrease the number of deaths but not the spread and hospital beds needed.

Most think COVID 19 is the problem, however it was just pin that burst the bubble, it has exposed the disgusting mess that central banks have created though artificially low interest rates and QE. If the economy was a Diabetic overweight person with high blood pressure who had lost a ton of weight due to a virus, QE is like the doctors prescribing him/her an unhealthy diet in an attempt to get him back to his old weight. We are in this generations defining moment.

[torvalds]

" The old risk associated to printing money vs higher inflation is also obsolete"

Utter nonsense {...}

There was plenty of other nonsense in that post...

{...}
QE is like the doctors prescribing him/her an unhealthy diet in an attempt to get him back to his old weight. We are in this generations defining moment.


And that is exactly what they did again. QE for infinity and beyond!

{TLTR}

~2 trillions(!) in the US alone so far. This time they called it "unlimited" support (like there is such thing in a finite world). Together this with the zero (negative in real term) interest rates they wont even hide their intent any longer. And yes doing this simply to prop up (back to where it was ASAP or to even bigger) asset bubbles. (Privatize profits, share the losses)
Just look at the (dead-cat I suspect) "bounce" of D/J (and every stock exchanges) yesterday and today. Of course it is clearly based on "fundamentals". "Wall street posts best performance in almost 90 years" headlines all over. Despite the fact, that countries/economies around the world are in a deeper ****e then they were a day before, W/S's grown about 20% in a day. Now that is a successful day in the office. They haven't even closed the bailout deal in congress, yet stock/company "valuations" increased by billions of USD. In such a mad world anything can happen with one exception: "We will not waver; we will not tire; we will not falter, and we will not fail" ("we" doesn't stand for general public in case you wondered).

{EOF TLTR}

I have read that the UK gov isn't going to bailout airlines, but I guess then it is exactly what they are planing to do, just waiting until they can fleece the retail investors a bit more first. Spread more fear amongst the public, to be ready to change those pesky employee T&C's for the benefit of the owners without any resistance. Then share the losses with the plebs of course, "for the children".

And the peasants rejoice.

[ILS27LEFT]

I strongly disagree, the truth is that QE and low interest rates have been used and abused by Central Banks for several years and well before COVID-19 and the global economy was still healthy despite QE + low rates.
If what you say is actually true then it will be the end of the world soon which I do not think will be the case.
Governments have no other solution.
Would you stop QE and let millions of people lose their jobs and most companies shut down?
If governments stop all the QE assistance the consequences would be unthinkable. It would probably mean the extinction of human race as our existance is based on the existing economic system unless you can provide a different solution please?

[Herod]

It would be probably mean the extinction of human race

Or perhaps the chance for some of the world's indigenous peoples to live in what used to be their homelands. (sorry, back to the thread)

[ILS27LEFT]

Or perhaps the chance for some of the world's indigenous peoples to live in what used to be their homelands. (sorry, back to the thread)

Yes so true :)

[torvalds]

{...}and the global economy was still healthy despite QE + low rates.

and the global economy was made to appear healthy despite QE + low rates. It is not healthy when you have negative (in real term) interest rates. It means there can not be paid any interest on your cash/savings. That is a complete failure and not a booming economy.

If governments stop all the QE assistance the consequences would be unthinkable.
It is thinkable you just don't want to hear it, instead just want to kick the can down on the road.. the easy way out.

{...} unless you can provide a different solution please?
Sure:

Restore capitalism!

[ATC Watcher]

News of the day from France :
Orly airport announced this afternoon they are closing down the airport from 31 March UFN.
Roissy (CDG) traffic is down 89% and they will close 2 terminals , no date yet .
Air France current reduced capacity schedule ( max 10% of Summer schedule) will last for the next 2 months .

[ambidextrous]

Wait until the tide goes out and then see he's still wearing clothing or is now naked?

[RobertP]

Extinction of the human race does not imply “the end of the world”. planet earth or whatever you call it, still has a few billion years left before our star expires and it would probably survive extremely well without the human species.

[Sqwak7700]

If governments stop all the QE assistance the consequences would be unthinkable.

Extremely inaccurate. Look up every recession before the Federal reserve. Or even the recession of 1920, which was over a year later and was followed by the “roaring twenties”, a period of massive growth and prosperity. The federal reserve caused the recession, but stayed out of the recovery and it lasted only a year, thanks to reduction in government and taxes. That should have been an omen to get rid of central banking, but unfortunately for us, they only got bigger and bolder.

If central banks and Fiat money would go away, most of the world’s problems would disappear. No more printing money by governments would allow the global economy to self correct, which is normal and should be allowed to play out. Life has ups and down, you can’t get rid of the downs without severely distorting the balance, only making the next down a lot worse.

In the US, the government (which includes the private Fed) have been doing this since 2001. Destroying the purchasing power of currency, and creating a global race to the bottom by all the world’s Fiat currencies.

Well, this is bottom. And they have committed to start digging deeper and redefine the bottom. For the sake of all of us, especially our offspring, let’s hope they’ve hit rock and this opportunity is not wasted to get rid of this ridiculous Banking system.

[SilverCircle]

Extinction of the human race does not imply “the end of the world”. planet earth or whatever you call it, still has a few billion years left before our star expires and it would probably survive extremely well without the human species.
It's actually "only" just a few hundred million years until the Sun will have changed enough to have massive impact on our planet, including all life forms (like us, in case we would still be here, which I doubt). The atmosphere will change significantly due to increasing radiation and luminosity of our star. The balance within the so-called habitable zone that allows carbon-based life forms to exist is surprisingly delicate and does not allow significant variation in most parameters.

In about 500-700 million years, C3 photosynthesis will likely stop to work, because there won't be enough CO2 in the atmosphere, despite all climate change and rising CO2 levels we currently have, CO2 will drop significantly with increasing solar radiation over the next few hundred million years until there is not enough left to keep photosynthesis running. At some point, most plant life will be dead, which will in turn lead to a massive change in available oxygen. And then it's probably game over for any higher life form.

Still plenty of time though for recovery from the human mishap and maybe even a new try to establish intelligent life through further evolution.

[ZFT]

It's actually "only" just a few hundred million years until the Sun will have changed enough to have massive impact on our planet, including all life forms (like us, in case we would still be here, which I doubt). The atmosphere will change significantly due to increasing radiation and luminosity of our star. The balance within the so-called habitable zone that allows carbon-based life forms to exist is surprisingly delicate and does not allow significant variation in most parameters.

In about 500-700 million years, C3 photosynthesis will likely stop to work, because there won't be enough CO2 in the atmosphere, despite all climate change and rising CO2 levels we currently have, CO2 will drop significantly with increasing solar radiation over the next few hundred million years until there is not enough left to keep photosynthesis running. At some point, most plant life will be dead, which will in turn lead to a massive change in available oxygen. And then it's probably game over for any higher life form.

Still plenty of time though for recovery from the human mishap and maybe even a new try to establish intelligent life through further evolution.

Damn. I've got less time than I thought. Better start running down the gin stocks

[etudiant]

Damn. I've got less time than I thought. Better start running down the gin stocks

Thank you for restoring a bit of perspective.
If we did nothing, this virus would kill about 1-3% of the people, skewed towards the aged. That was routine 'business as usual' during the middle ages.
Pepys did pretty well during the Great Plague and surely he was not alone. So life continues, just a little different.

[PeterWeb]

Thank you for restoring a bit of perspective.
If we did nothing, this virus would kill about 1-3% of the people, skewed towards the aged. That was routine 'business as usual' during the middle ages.
Pepys did pretty well during the Great Plague and surely he was not alone. So life continues, just a little different.

Agreed. But we are generations of humans who simply haven't had to deal with that level of external threat, so we're more than a little slow on the learning curve. That means lots of unnecessary death and harm, not to mention doing a very big number on our health workers.

We need to help each other to learn faster.

[cats_five]

Thank you for restoring a bit of perspective.
If we did nothing, this virus would kill about 1-3% of the people, skewed towards the aged. That was routine 'business as usual' during the middle ages.
Pepys did pretty well during the Great Plague and surely he was not alone. So life continues, just a little different.

We no longer live in those times. Plagues caused massive economic damage and personal grief & suffering. I doubt you would be so blase if you had lived then.

[dohouch]

The timeline, a la Angela, clever Muti, is when Diese Zeitspanne müsse sehr viel weiter gestreckt werden, "in Richtung von zehn Tagen". Das Ziel der Maßnahmen sei es, dass das Gesundheitssystem nicht überlastet werde.when the infection doubling rate is every 10 days..
I enjoy my consumption of the Earth's resources as much as any privileged Boomer. Should we go on? Is there, without universal Authoritarianism another way ? I'm thinking not,
Without food, a crazy habit I've developed over my years of knocking 'round this planet, I just won't stay here any longer. So food production, not coming from China, yet!

[etudiant]

We no longer live in those times. Plagues caused massive economic damage and personal grief & suffering. I doubt you would be so blase if you had lived then.

The economic damage and personal suffering back then was similarly disproportionate. That is why people remember these plagues.
The difference today is that we have not had a real crisis for about 75 years, two full generations, so we forget how hard it really is
Fwiw, they are putting up emergency hospital tents in NYC Central Park a few blocks from my place. Blase is not my state of mind under these circumstances.

[PeterWeb]

The difference today is that we have not had a real crisis for about 75 years, two full generations, so we forget how hard it really is.

Agreed. Most of us have a lot of learning to do about a world with a higher background risk of disease, and have forgotten habits that were ingrained for many of our predecessors. It's a steep curve but the more we help each other with accurate, evidence-based information, the better.

[caevans]

America's finest narrow-body? Boeing screwed the pooch on the 737 enhancements. Big Time. It was a great two hour airplane. Now it carries more than a 767-200. Sardine packing for passengers...very high ref speeds and poor runway performance. I'd pick an A320 anyday over the 737!

[Old Dogs]

Extinction of the human race does not imply “the end of the world”. planet earth or whatever you call it, still has a few billion years left before our star expires and it would probably survive extremely well without the human species.

Horseshoe crab = 600 million years.

Shark = 400 million years.

H. sapien = 250,000 years.

It ain't lookin' good. 🤔

[Michael S]

Horseshoe crab = 600 million years.

Shark = 400 million years.

H. sapien = 250,000 years.

It ain't lookin' good. 🤔


Seniority based extinction? ;-)

[Old Dogs]

Seniority based extinction? ;-)

Makes sense. 😁

[krismiler]

If airlines are nationalised or put on government support for a while, I can't see stratospheric salaries and bonuses being paid to directors. Previously the main interests were shareholder return and dividends, short term thinking regarding cost cutting in order to get a bonus rather than the long term good of the company. Strip out value by selling off core assets, make the numbers look good and you'd be long gone by the time the chickens came home to roost.

Privatisation under Mrs Thatcher was a good thing, inefficient state run companies were transformed, workers could own a piece of their employer and the general public got to participate in an area previously dominated by the financial elite. Now we have a new generation of robber barons pulling the financial strings, quite happy to take all the profits when it pays off but expecting a state bail out when they come short.

[Old Dogs]

If airlines are nationalised or put on government support for a while, I can't see stratospheric salaries and bonuses being paid to directors. Previously the main interests were shareholder return and dividends, short term thinking regarding cost cutting in order to get a bonus rather than the long term good of the company. Strip out value by selling off core assets, make the numbers look good and you'd be long gone by the time the chickens came home to roost.

Privatisation under Mrs Thatcher was a good thing, inefficient state run companies were transformed, workers could own a piece of their employer and the general public got to participate in an area previously dominated by the financial elite. Now we have a new generation of robber barons pulling the financial strings, quite happy to take all the profits when it pays off but expecting a state bail out when they come short.

Privatise the profits and socialize the costs.

Add to that the propensity for "next quarter" management thinking.

It's the American Way. 😏

[SINGAPURCANAC]

@krismiler, 10/10

how we run into situation that very successfull bussiness, with profits and bonuses, and all of sudden 15 days of interuption and we are out of money. Where is reserve gone?
could you imagine house, decent one, with healty and functional family, cars, Bora Bora holidays- and they could not survive without dayli fresh cash a few days?

[ATC Watcher]

In France, the economy minister said yesterday that in any private business where the State has a share ( e.g Like in AF or Airbus ) and who will be applying for State financial aid, whether loan or grant, will be requested not to pay dividends to its shareholders in 2020.
Some of those companies already agreed ( incl. Airbus) but not all yet .

[nevillestyke]

Sad to contemplate it but will there even be any call for PPRuNe, in six months time?

[etudiant]

The crisis is producing a de facto nationalization of industry. With a little more time, expect rationing as the supply chains buckle.
It is truly a wonderful opportunity for a comprehensive reset of the western economies. What is missing is any indication of the desired outcome.

[Bidule]

Privatisation under Mrs Thatcher was a good thing, inefficient state run companies were transformed,

True when you see the condition of the UK railroad system....:\

[ATC Watcher]

how do you pay dividends from losses anyways?
.Those companies made huge profits in 2019 and , as I understood it, were due to pay large dividends in next months or so, those are the ones in question. .

[Blue-Shamrock 89]

Yes, let’s sit and watch who’s dying, shall we? Like rubbernecking at an accident. Everybody can think of some candidates in bad shape, but there will be surprises too. Having a discussion who will and who won’t is bad taste in my book. Enough people, in almost ALL companies, will be severely worried at the moment.

Well said. There is a time and place and that time isn’t now 👏👏👏

[MINself]

I do tend to think that as and when restrictions are lifted, in the UK at least people will still want to go on holiday. It may well be though that travel habits go back to the old fashioned two weeks bucket and spade in the summer. That may bode well for the likes of TUI and Jet2.

The idea that the industry, Jet2 included, won't contract between by 10-20% as so many holidaying people have lost jobs is difficult to argue against now, since the 23rd March a lot has changed.
Flying schedules will be slow to get going again, some crews got current, some continued to be furloughed. The global economic impact of what we are seeing is unprecedented and like other global events the aviation industry will take years to recover from.
Sadly more will lose their jobs and even worse some their lives. Let us hope we make it out alive and prepare of a very much smaller industry that will take years to recover to January 2020 levels.

[flocci_non_faccio]

The idea that the industry, Jet2 included, won't contract between by 10-20% as so many holidaying people have lost jobs is difficult to argue against now, since the 23rd March a lot has changed.

I've been pretty consistent in my assertion that the industry will contract by a hell of a lot more than 10-20%. That doesn't change my belief that TUI UK and Jet2 (the corporate entities) will come out of this in reasonable fighting shape. For a large number of pilots and cabin crew currently at both companies that'll be scant comfort because they will be out of work with little prospect of getting flying again.

[ManUtd1999]

The idea that the industry, Jet2 included, won't contract between by 10-20% as so many holidaying people have lost jobs is difficult to argue against now, since the 23rd March a lot has changed.

True, but this isn't a "normal" financial crisis. A lot of those 10-20% haven't necessarily lost their jobs permanently but have instead been temporarily layed off. It's possible that the economy will rebound a lot quicker compared to previous examples. In an optimistic scenario we get on top of coronavirus over the next few months and life slowly returns to normal. This summer is clearly a write-off for most airlines but I don't think it's inconceivable that by next summer traffic is back close to February 2020 levels. Certainly the 3+ year depression people on these forums seem to be assuming is by no means guaranteed.

[Mr A Tis]

True, but this isn't a "normal" financial crisis. A lot of those 10-20% haven't necessarily lost their jobs permanently but have instead been temporarily layed off. It's possible that the economy will rebound a lot quicker compared to previous examples. In an optimistic scenario we get on top of coronavirus over the next few months and life slowly returns to normal. This summer is clearly a write-off for most airlines but I don't think it's inconceivable that by next summer traffic is back close to February 2020 levels. Certainly the 3+ year depression people on these forums seem to be assuming is by no means guaranteed.

That is a very optimistic scenario,IMHO. This thing isn't going away. Until there is a vaccine travel will remain restricted by States and individuals to one degree or another. That could easily be 18 months away. I'd say a 20% contraction of the industry would be optimistic, returning to Feb 2020 levels a fantasy.

[ATC Watcher]

The Eurocontrol network manager is very optimistic and predicts a rebound of traffic as early as May and around 80-90%f of January traffic by October . .They have normally very good data , but I have a bit of difficulty to see this coming .
On the other hand IATA has a much more pessimistic view ..:
IATA analysis indicates that on average airlines started for the year with approximately two months’ worth of cash in reserve. In recent weeks, as the crisis has worsened, many airlines have been paying out more in refunds than
they have received in new booking revenues, meaning that their reserves are rapidly depleting. In short, the industry is coming to a standstill.
Many European Airlines are currently in grave and immediate danger of insolvency.

[grizzled]

The Eurocontrol network manager is very optimistic and predicts a rebound of traffic as early as May and around 80-90%f of January traffic by October . .They have normally very good data , but I have a bit of difficulty to see this coming .
On the other hand IATA has a much more pessimistic view ..:

I too have (great) difficulty seeing any accuracy in the Eurocontrol network manager's predictions -- and Eurocontrol's historical predictions regarding air traffic and economic benefits thereof have been little better than optimistic guessing, even in more predictable times.

Re IATA: Remember what IATA's mandate and primary role is: They are the global lobbying agency for airlines. So rather than calling it "pessimistic" I see it as they are simply setting the stage for the upcoming months of arguing for financial assistance / bailouts for airlines (their members).

[Deltasierra010]

”Where did the reserve go to”, in business of all kinds there is very little reserve, it’s just not airlines, when customers stop paying you, you can’t pay the overheads. Your creditors, including leasing companies, banks and shareholders have to take a hit. It’s up to the creditors to decide if the business can be revived or wether to throw the towel in. New investors may or may not buy up the assets such as they are, one guarantee, employees and small creditors always loose.

[MINself]

True, but this isn't a "normal" financial crisis. A lot of those 10-20% haven't necessarily lost their jobs permanently but have instead been temporarily layed off. It's possible that the economy will rebound a lot quicker compared to previous examples.

I admire your steadfast optimism, but what’s required is that we need to face up to all the signals that this isn’t simply a “blip” in the global economy and aviation. The passengers that have been furloughed or laid off will not just walk into another job without financial hangover from the loss of earnings. This and many other issues, such as the price of oil and world futures markets means aviation will not recover quickly from this shock to it. Instead aviation, like so many industries, will have to be supported and gently eased back to full fitness.

The full recovery I believe and hope will happen, but there will be the loss of initial capacity and with it jobs throughout the aviation sector, this will simply reflect the global economic contraction. Those currently furloughed might be thinking about whether it’s likely they will be rehired when eventually the airlines restart a limited flight schedule, or made redundant?

[etudiant]

Honestly, no one knows how long the economy can survive a lock down.
It is quite possible that martial law and rationing will become necessary if the crisis goes into May.
We are already seeing breakdowns in international civility because the distribution of critical protective gear was not controlled appropriately, given the circumstances.
In this context, it is a stretch to speculate on the prospects for individual air carriers or aerospace equipment makers. They are small potatoes relative to others such as the auto or energy or financial industries, their fates will get determined once the big sectors have been sorted.
It is however very plausible that there will be a dramatic fall in productivity, as supply chains get deglobalized to prevent cutoffs in the future. That does not bode well for commercial air travel.

[Richard Dangle]

Honestly, no one knows how long the economy can survive a lock down.

100% agree. A reporter on the BBC coined the phrase "existential debate" meaning - bluntly - the cost of immediate fatality versus the cost of forthcoming fataility owing to socio-economic collapse. Some of the well-intentioned financial measures to support business in a service economy are not going to work. No rational business leader is going to borrrow money to sustain a business which has no future. Assuming this goes on for just a few more months, in the coming years the majority of the economically active part of the population will concerned with paying their mortgage and bills and putting food on the table. There will be squat for the "luxury" part of the market place which means devastation from lack of demand in the leisure and travel sectors, which form a sizeable chunk of any service economy. Not just airlines, hotels, clubs, pubs, restaraunts, any form of tourist attraction etc etc.

Governments will know this they are not dumb. They will be frantically searching for two solutions. 1. More realistic (yet still some how "affordable") business support measure, to eek out business survivability a few more months. 2. An exit strategy that gets people out of their homes and back to work. If that sounds like a statement of the obvious, maybe the implied bit is that the exit strategy is going to have to accept a level of immediate fatality higher than people might expect. In other words, I doubt we will remain locked down until this virus if a) fully under control b) we have herd immunity c) we have a vaccine. I think we will have to be out and about before any of those things happen.

[covec]

Just posted elsewhere...Radio Scotland reporting that easyjet only has funds to survive to August unless they can cancel their planned aircraft orders.

(Appreciate that Stelios has been against expansion so he may be telling porkies 😉).

[22/04]

I think that there will be an easing for younger people quite soon- by that I mean June. I think that those over 70 and the vulnerable will be advised to self isolate for a long time - may be around a year with a few exemptions to visit family etc. That might help shops and pubs but the airline industry is in the most difficult position. It will require international agreement on the way forward and then people having the desire or funds to travel.

I really don't see any sort of demand for at least a year and any real recovery to something we recognise until 2023. Who will be left given that scenario is anybody's guess.

[ATC Watcher]

There are talks already to undo the "stay-at-home" restrictions in some countries pretty soon ( e.g Austria, perhaps Germany) both for economical reasons but also to get "herd" immunity on the long run . But these will not restore air travel in a matter of weeks. .
There is also some civilization / economical models which might not survive this crisis. , The create need for superfluous items that extensively relied on air transport to exist. The flower industry is one of them for instance..
Ferrying people in and out of cruise ships is another.
One of the International Organisation I work for decided to cancel all meetings/ travels in 2020. and go for virtual solutions. There are many of such examples that might either not survive, or at least take a certain time to restart. They might individually be a small percentage of traffic,but all of these put together will also have an serious impact on demand.

[easyJetCrew]

I think it will all depend on individual airline's liquidity combined with the response of the government in which they're based. It's going to need both of these things for each airline to survive all this.

[GAGuy]

Maybe this has been touched on earlier, but in the US at least, the Federal government doesn't control the lock down. It didn't institute the shelter in place orders. The state governments did. For an edict from our Federal government telling people it's time to come out of their rabbit holes to be effective will take three things. First, the states will have to agree. Admittedly the Federal government could use bailout money to encourage them, but since those conditions aren't in the Congressional bailout authorization, it would likely face an immediate test in court. However, even if that succeeds, the second is that companies will have to agree. For the purposes of this discussion, that means that companies restart business travel and that won't happen until the business flyer is confident they won't risk death to attend a conference or make a sales call. Finally, the people themselves need to agree. And, once again, for the purposes of this discussion, that means people will start booking flights to Disneyland again.

This is all about trust, not governmental edicts, and trust in our Federal government at this moment is in short supply. Perhaps the day we can buy an n95 mask, hand sanitizer and toilet paper at our local store again, the day we don't have to stand in USSR-style lines to get in a grocery store to buy food, the day we're not seeing photos of mass graves in New York parks, the trust barometer might be high enough to make the transition.

[covec]

Al Jazeera reporting that the UK is the new epicentre.

If true then it will be a wee whiley yet afore we're supping Tennants doon the local...

...relevence here?

It'll be awhile yet. Airlines with good balance books & effective lobbying...🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

[EPHD75]

Living on the left coast, I guess I can understand your attitude. However, the federal government and the president lead the country, constitutionally and morally. If the president says the economy must be restarted, people will be glad to hear it and will force state governments to follow suit, where practical. This will be a rolling start up depending on the situation on the ground. In my neck of the woods there are no lines anywhere, and we don't see CNN.

[stormin norman]

They say it costs 10 times the amount to find a new customer than it does to keep one. The airline and travel companies are about to find out.

[b1lanc]

It's a lot different in the northeast - nightly news barrage on death counts (pick your channel), lines at some supermarkets and then one way aisles and blocks to stand on in the stores. Parks closed, but you can walk around the block - many people doing that. And the governor of NY and mayor of NYC are arguing about closing schools for the rest of the calendar year - so I guess you can add cities to the list of who would have to agree.

On the flip side, the shelves in the local super are starting to look full again (except TP). Everyone is teleworking - a completely foreign concept to many employers and employees. That said, I think people are getting somewhat used to it (I home-officed in the 90's and 00's and loved it) and it will reduce the need/urge to travel for business. Try to buy a webcam - you can't. I'm getting a rebate from my auto insurer because of lack of driving and less chance of an accident - unthinkable a couple of months ago.

It will be a slow build up to fill aircraft and increase flights. Even my last trip to the west in late January before Covid restrictions were in place, I was on half full aircraft in deserted main hubs at prime Mon-Fri business travel hours. AA alone has cut flights at the three metro NYC airports from 271 last April to 13 now. I simply don't see a quick recovery regardless of what states or fed or city gov'ts allow/encourage. Some regional airports could lose service completely. Even with low fuel costs, the airlines will be hard pressed to offer inexpensive fares at the outset and many people (small business employees who would have traveled on vacation) simply will not have the funds to take that trip they had planned.

[ATC Watcher]

I attended a few on-line briefings last week and the forecast is not that good for a variety of reasons . Most agree that the first rebound is unlikely to restart within 6 months ( meaning October at earliest) and it will likely be with 10-20% of flights schedules last January .A rebound beyond 60% is likely to take up to 2 years. Passenger demand due economic and fear of travel far from home is likely to restrict traffic to domestic in the initial phases .( intra Europe is considered domestic traffic) . During that time there will be many airlines that will either cease to operate , or restrict their size significantly, , and probably new entrants in the market with a different business model.

Another point raised is the maintenance of aircraft parked and the leasing business .
A working group reporting to EASA warned that in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic, there will be a high level of disruption in the leasing aircraft with multiple change of owners and registration , but the disrupted infrastructure will prevent leasing companies and authorities to verify maintenance and maintain airworthiness of a large number of aircraft parked and stored .
Another unknown mentioned is the change in the societal perception of flying . That factor , minimized until now, will be a determining factor in the future .

[b1lanc]

Another factor that will impact travel is the health of the support structure that get travelers into, through, and out of airports.

[ILS27LEFT]

This is unprecedented. Governments are in unchartered territory. However we have a huge advantage: the web. The web allows all of
us to interconnect beyond boundaries hence knowledge can be instantly shared. The biggest advantage, in addition to shared global knowledge, is the possibility to electronically inject money into the economy in real-time. We are basically going to be fine. It is not going to happen overnight. There will be new measures like mandatory KN95 masks for all air travellers and crew however we will back to normal business quite soon. As I said from start the biggest concern is the risk of civil unrest. If governments will keep injecting cash and the unemployed will get assistance the entire system will recover within a year. Significant Government's help is critical. Nothing else will work this time.

[Big Pistons Forever]

There is one up-side. My employer has gone all in on the latest management fad where no one has a desk anymore or any personal space and everyone works crammed into one third the space to save money on leasing costs. I think it is safe to say hot desking and side by seating in totally open plan offices is an idea which is going to go away fast.

I think the biggest threat to airlines is the fact that all the video conferencing programs have a got a huge shot in the arm from virus related restrictions. Lot's of business and government workers, including me, are using them regularly for the first time and which I think will permanent reduce the demand for business travel as was traditionally face to face meetings now will be done remotely. Since business travel is the core money maker for all of the legacy carriers, this has huge implications for their future.

Freight flying however is booming and will IMO, be where there is money to made going forward.

[Longtimer]

Seems like just yesterday, there was talk about a pilot shortage, and now there is concern that there may not be enough jobs for those who are qualified pilots. Not funny.

[industry insider]

Seems like just yesterday, there was talk about a pilot shortage, and now there is concern that there may not be enough jobs for those who are qualified pilots. Not funny.

In 2018, global passenger trip demand was predicted to be 7 billion annually by 2035. The forecast requirement was for an additional 637,000 additional pilots and 648,000 technicians globally. While Covid-19 is going to put a big dip in upward demand, overall, it will be temporary. I think we are looking at a vaccine or finding an existing or new drug which minimises symptoms before we see travel return to being discretionary. But while the virus kills, it isn't going to impact long term global population growth which is what drives overall demand.

Commercial reality will, mean that there will be rationalisation within the airline industry. The weak will go to the wall. There will be less choice, for a while anyway. We will necessarily end up with Government intervention and part nationalisation of some airlines until the market recovers and Governments can offload their shareholdings for a profit. Some pilots will have flown their last flights. Most will fly again. Market forces will be tough on our terms and conditions in the short term.

[Jabberwocky82]

I am no expert, but this makes sense to me. Airlines will fly again in my opinion, but it may take some time to fly across borders. Why then are most people stating that state operated companies will be around, including Singapore? I wouldn't expect them to do much flying and they do not fly domestically surely, but am very willing to be proven wrong.

What airlines are actually most likely to still be here in 1 to 2 years? (I hope they all do, but we need to be realistic).

[safetypee]

Reconsidering the question as how individuals and operators will survive would provide ideas for meaningful activity opposed to guess work about the future of a very uncertain world.

How can the current uncertainty be managed.

The world has changed, unlikely to return to anything like the normality that we had in the short term. Thus how far ahead; 6 months will be a transition at best, more likely mopping up and fighting rearguard actions.

How to exist until a favourable situation evolves; how is 'favourable' to be defined.

[ATC Watcher]

What airlines are actually most likely to still be here in 1 to 2 years? (I hope they all do, but we need to be realistic).
Nor sure which ones will still be there 2 years from now , but some States have already indicated that they will nationalize their National carriers ( e.g. France with AF and Italy with Alitalia ) I can guess similar statements have been or will be made for others like Singapore Airlines or Emirates, Qatar, etc.. as those States basic economic model is based on their national airline. Which size they will still be is of course another question .

It is also conceivable that large Countries with little developed modern mass ground transportation infrastructure ( e.g , USA, Russia, Norway ,even Canada ) will be able to restart domestic operations on a larger scale quicker than others,

[fox niner]

Certain flag carriers will be helped through this period. Expect to return to the 70’s.
Question is: What about all those low cost carriers?

[safetypee]

ATC, you suggest that states will nationalise; possibly, but to do what, what need.

No country can pay out for 'nothing'; thus for what value - people, skill, economy. What is the relative cost / effectiveness of airlines vs railways, or different areas of manufacture, what will be the new economic future - existence to begin with, manufacturing, trade, but trade what with whom, then transport - plane or 'sail'.
The 'green card', individual adaptation, new norms, communication, travel, leisure. Food, well being, security.

Very difficult, 'big call' situation; no simple answer, if any. Thus be flexible be prepared to adapt, individual, operator, country.

fox niner, no return to the past, only an uncertain future.

[ATC Watcher]

ATC, you suggest that states will nationalise; possibly, but to do what, what need..
Some Airlines will be declared an essential public service . For France it is mainly because of the so called " territorial continuity" between the mainland and the numerous islands, territories and departments it has spread over the globe , From Corsica to Tahiti , passing by Guyana , Martinique/Guadeloupe, , Reunion, New Caledonia..etc.. Frequent Air Liaisons are essential for the State maintain its governance.and it does not have its own State aircraft fleet to do that anymore.
Keeping jobs and expertise during this crisis will also be a major consideration for a centralized State. .
For other States it might be that the "national" airline is part of the Defense system in case of crisis/war.

Many years ago when KLM was in financial trouble and could not find a partner to buy them , I was told that the State was considering nationalizing part of the airline because transporting troops in case of crisis was one of the tasks the airline still had signed with the Dutch Military , (which did not have any large transport aircraft at the time). I do not know if this is still the case. . But there are many reasons a State wants to nationalize its airline other than for a pure business case.

no return to the past, only an uncertain future
That I also agree fully .

[Pilot DAR]

What about all those low cost carriers?

Between reduced personal discretional spending money for many in the near future, more emphasis on "staycation" holidays, much easier video conferencing for business, and heightened climate awareness, I opine that there will be a reduced demand for low cost carriers for a long time to come.

[Douglas Bahada]

"reduced personal discretional spending money for many in the near future, more emphasis on "staycation" holidays, much easier video conferencing for business, and heightened climate awareness, I opine that there will be a reduced demand for low cost carriers for a long time to come"

A large number of LCC passengers don't do video conferencing for business and most don't give a fig about climate change. All they want is to get drunk in the sun and shag anything that has a pulse. It's their right innit. I think two LCCs in Europe should be ok.

[jabird]

Nor sure which ones will still be there 2 years from now , but some States have already indicated that they will nationalize their National carriers ( e.g. France with AF and Italy with Alitalia ) I can guess similar statements have been or will be made for others like Singapore Airlines or Emirates, Qatar, etc.. as those States basic economic model is based on their national airline. Which size they will still be is of course another question .

It is also conceivable that large Countries with little developed modern mass ground transportation infrastructure ( e.g , USA, Russia, Norway ,even Canada ) will be able to restart domestic operations on a larger scale quicker than others,


Do you mean in the sense that the ground transport substitutes domestic flights, or that it spreads infection?

Very few countries have so little ground infrastructure that journeys by land or indeed by sea for island nations would become simply impossible. In most cases, it's a question of what multiple the end to end journey time would be, possibly starting with about 0.75 where high speed rail exists between city centres, but air is still attractive for people living in the wider hinterland, or for onward connections. For that reason, CDG & ORY to LYS has continued to exist as a route, despite the TGv, which afaik takes about 90-95% of the combined air-rail market.

Norway for one has an excellent road network, but distances are vast between the outlying cities and the roads are still going through mountainous terrain.

Of the most populous nations, Brazil perhaps has the least developed major inter-urban road network, although the most popular sectors are still a much shorter hop between Rio & SP. Brazil is rare in having almost zero inter-urban without being an island group like the Phillipines.

[jabird]

We had our first family video chat today for Easter. Uptake has no doubt shot through the roof in the last few weeks but we all agreed it's not the same as actually meeting up.

A lot of the LCCs are moving people between different countries/cities for short term work contracts as well as for leisure travel. The work still needs to be done, but obviously the ability to fulfil any such job becomes radically different if the flight costs 4x as much.

[Bidule]

Frequent Air Liaisons are essential for the State maintain its governance.and it does not have its own State aircraft fleet to do that anymore.
Keeping jobs and expertise during this crisis will also be a major consideration for a centralized State. .


The French Air Force has the number of aircraft for the State to "maintain its governance" (about A340, A330, KC135, A310, Falcons.... without counting the A400Ms and Hercules). Moreover, if Air France disappeared, there would be French operators able to do this job.
35 years ago, the State missions during the events in New Caledonia, i.e. mainly transport of policemen, had almost all been done by UTA then privately owned (Air France had not yet been bought by UTA, immediately re-branded Air France).

Nationalizing Air France is a French local political case, nothing more. And it looks like many French people do not appreciate too much that the State could grant 4.1 billions EUR to AFR when the yearly budget of Health is only 1.4 billions...

.

[flocci_non_faccio]

Do you really think that the French state only spends €1.4billion a year on healthcare?

[Douglas Bahada]

Central European budget carrier Wizz Air is cutting 1,000 personnel, nearly one-fifth of its staff, after its operation was reduced to a bare minimum by the coronavirus crisis.

The airline says it has been forced to take the “difficult step” to make workers redundant, adding that it has also carried out additional short-term furlough of staff.

Wizz Air has a fleet of Airbus jets and is planning to return 32 older aircraft by the end of 2022-23 as their leases expire, as part of its measures to trim costs and improve liquidity.

It states that its balance sheet is still “very strong” with “excellent” liquidity including €1.5 billion in cash.

[Life of Leisure]

A quick internet search (not enough posts to give the link) came up with a French government web site that gave the total cost of healthcare in 2018 as 203.5 billion euros with 78.1% paid by the state.

[ATC Watcher]

"@ jabird : Do you mean in the sense that the ground transport substitutes domestic flights, or that it spreads infection?
I meant Countries that rely intensively to air to link their population centers, those are likely to restore traffic earlier . So far air transportation spread the Covid-19 globally and much quicker than trains .
@Bidule : The French Air Force has the number of aircraft for the State to "maintain its governance" (about A340, A330, KC135, A310, Falcons.... without counting the A400Ms and Hercules). Moreover, if Air France disappeared, there would be French operators able to do this job..
Maintaining governance and territorial continuity is transporting essential goods and staff every day .The French air force is not equipped for that .
Their Estrerel squadron is only 5 aircraft ( 3 A310s and 2 A340) the 6 Flacons are only VIPs seating and the 2 A330 MRT are used for other tasks. The Transalls, Hercules and A400M do not have a transatlantic or trans pacific range . On the other Air France has over 100 long range transport aircraft at its disposal, (70 B777s 15 A330s , plus 18 A380 and B787 ) and is already performing this task. The other small private French airlines ( what is left of them ) are too small to be of significance in this .
35 years ago, the State missions during the events in New Caledonia, i.e. mainly transport of policemen, had almost all been done by UTA then privately owned (Air France had not yet been bought by UTA, immediately re-branded Air France)
Yes UTA was heavily used by the French military in the 70s and ,80s ,and not only for carrying troops .They also paid a heavy price for it in 1984 and 1989 :(. As to UTA buying Air France in 1990 , I like the humor but UTA in 1990 was only 13 aircraft ..
it looks like many French people do not appreciate too much that the State could grant 4.1 billions EUR to AFR when the yearly budget of Health is only 1.4 billions...
The " secu" cost figure was already corrected, but for info the AF rescue package or re- nationalization costs are not yet fixed. Anyway it will be virtual money.. we can agree on that .

[covec]

UK Chancellor talking about painful days ahead, economically.

Here in the UK we are bracing for a 35% reduction in the economy and a doubling of unemployment to 2 000 000.

I hope not.

We’ve also got some big spending issues to face: CV19 Universal Credit; HS2 Rail; Trident; “Levelling up the UK pledge”... and BREXIT. No deal yet.

[CaptainProp]

Crises like the one we are seeing now with COVID19 sometimes brings out the worst in humanity. It also often brings out the best. I don’t know how much readers here are following the massive leaps being made in research and trials, not only for a vaccine, but also for treatments of moderate and severe symptoms of COVID19.

It’s very hard, impossible, to predict how the next 6-24 months will look like for our industry and the wider economy. Having said that, I‘m
very optimistic that we will have meaningful treatment options on the table in the next 3-6 months which will give a massive boost to the markets and the general public. it will also help us manage a likely second wave of the virus later this year. These treatments will make a huge difference until we have a vaccine available.

[ILS27LEFT]

Captain, spot on. Totally agree. I would add "mandatory face masks" in confined spaces, combined with anti viral treatments/solutions this will allow us to move around again & travel until the vaccine will fix it for ever.
The global response to the next pandemic will be much more effective, everything will change in this area.
In the end COVID19 will fix a few aberrations of the previous system.

[Herod]

until the vaccine will fix it for ever
We can but hope. These things have a very nasty habit of mutating.

[Pistonprop]

But don't forget that vaccines are not 100% effective for everyone. Before Covid there were still many "normal" flu deaths of which a fair percentage included people who had had their annual flu jab.

[ATC Watcher]

A bit of research on Wikipedia on Coronaviruses is not very encouraging . common cold has some coronavirus variants , for which no vaccine exists , and as immunity is concerned , you can get it back multiple times during the same year, some kids up to 7 times per winter...
The good news is that now every laboratory in the world is working on it, as there is serious money to be made, some even do cooperate with one another, and there is serious hope we can get one for wide public use in the next 12-18 months.
What the aviation situation will be then and who will be eager to travel after the economic impact is basically the subject of this discussion.

[Lake1952]

But don't forget that vaccines are not 100% effective for everyone. Before Covid there were still many "normal" flu deaths of which a fair percentage included people who had had their annual flu jab.

Speaking as a physician, while the annual formulations of flu vaccines is far from perfect at preventing influenza infections, those who have been vaccinated are far more likely to have mild cases not requiring hospital care, and dramatically less likely to die.

[CaptainProp]

But don't forget that vaccines are not 100% effective for everyone. Before Covid there were still many "normal" flu deaths of which a fair percentage included people who had had their annual flu jab.

A future COVID19 vaccine with the same efficiency as the normal flu vaccine only requires about 40% of the population to be vaccinated to give sufficient reliable protection against a pandemic influenza. This requires people in high risk groups to be monitored, take extra precautions, and confirmed cases to be quarantined much as we are doing now in most parts of the world. If no extra measures like these are taken at least 80% of the population needs to be vaccinated to get the same protection.

[Pistonprop]

But, from what I have just read, of those 40% vaccinated the vaccine will only be effective for an average of 45% when taking all age groups into account. It will be most effective for the young (65% average apparently) and least effective for the elderly (16% was quoted in the paper I read). Those figures, which I was never aware of previously, don't comfort me. I guess ignorance (on my part) was bliss. :)

[CaptainProp]

It is my understanding that today’s flu vaccines have efficiencies way higher than that, around 70-80%. Vaccination is also not only to protect the vaccinated people from getting the virus, especially when we are talking about a pandemic, but to actually stop the virus from spreading in a population. That’s achieved by vaccinating 40/80%, depending on whether or not additional measurements (see above) are also rolled out.

[marchino61]

People here are not comparing like with like. The influenza virus mutates far more rapidly than coronaviruses. The only reason we have no vaccines against coronaviruses is that none of them - before this - was dangerous enough to make it worthwhile.

[B772]

Will Titan Airways survive this downturn in the industry.

[navstar1]

The airlines that deserve to survive are those who have looked after their passengers during this crisis. Not those who cut and run as soon as possible and then have used the funds from cancelled flights as interest free loans from their passengers. They should remember that most of us have long memories and will be very selective in the future and look very carefully at the small print on the booking conditions. And yes before everyone bounces up and down I do note the argument from IATA concerning the problems concerning refunds viz a viz a promise of a possible flight in the future with a piece of paper called a flight credit. I wish I could use the same logic with my bank!

[advent]

Will Titan Airways survive this downturn in the industry.
Yep, incredibly strong management tram that looks after each and every staff member since I first encoutered them in March of '89 when the 404's were parked next to LFC and the new fuel farm :)

[the_stranger]

They should remember that most of us have long memories and will be very selective in the future and look very carefully at the small print on the booking conditions.
If this really applied to " the most of is", Ryanair et al. would not have existed, United would have no customers, etc.

If air travel starts up again, most of us will just go for the lowest fare, regardless of present or future behaviour of the airline.

[cats_five]

And most of us, most of the time, don't have a choice who to fly with. I do for flying to London, though that dictated which airport I went to. I don't for other UK internal flights.

[CaptainProp]

People here are not comparing like with like. The influenza virus mutates far more rapidly than coronaviruses. The only reason we have no vaccines against coronaviruses is that none of them - before this - was dangerous enough to make it worthwhile.

Correct. And that solidifies the vaccination case discussed above even further.

In the news today concerning treatments of severe COVID19 symptoms:

“Early impressions from a study at the University of Chicago Medicine were reported by Stat news (https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/early-peek-at-data-on-gilead-coronavirus-drug-suggests-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/), a healthcare industry publication, showing rapid recoveries in almost all of the more than a hundred severely ill patients.”

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/c0b7a2a1-e91e-44ef-9a96-55250cbbbaff

Keep an eye on major indices today.

[Clandestino]

CHaving said that, I‘m very optimistic that we will have meaningful treatment options on the table in the next 3-6 months which will give a massive boost to the markets and the general public. it will also help us manage a likely second wave of the virus later this year. These treatments will make a huge difference until we have a vaccine available.
Yeah! The fantastic speed with which the meaningful AIDS treatment and vaccine were developed makes me optimistic too!

[navstar1]

If this really applied to " the most of is", Ryanair et al. would not have existed, United would have no customers, etc.

If air travel starts up again, most of us will just go for the lowest fare, regardless of present or future behaviour of the airline.
When I meant “ most of us” I am referring to those who have been treated in a disgraceful manner by many of the major airlines around the world who in addition to withholding refunds are also now pleading for tax payers money to keep them going. Of course many will go for the cheapest option in the future and good luck to them and the airlines who provide this excellent service. My point is look after your passengers now and they will remain loyal to you in the future. It makes good business sense.

[the_stranger]

while you might be thinking that way (and I admire that), I do think you think too highly of people in general.
Sure most will say never to fly Z again when issued a voucher, but in a years time they are Z is slightly cheaper than X and there they go, booking with Z...

There is a reason most, if not all, airlines were on a downward slope regarding service, perks and extra's. It's all about the money and the ones who choose more with past experience in mind (like you) don't generate enough of it.

Hopefully I am wrong, though..

[b1lanc]

If this really applied to " the most of is", Ryanair et al. would not have existed, United would have no customers, etc.

If air travel starts up again, most of us will just go for the lowest fare, regardless of present or future behaviour of the airline.
The reality is "most of us" will be a significantly smaller number for a few years to come.

[lederhosen]

Of the airlines that deserve to succeed I would like to single out Finnair for their excellent customer service and efficient refunding of my money. I will definitely be using them again!

[Denti]

The reality is "most of us" will be a significantly smaller number for a few years to come.

I guess that depends on where you are in the age distribution. A lot of inheriting is taking place, and a lot of houses are handed down. Which gives quite a few people a warm windfall far sooner than expected...

Will it be enough to stimulate enough demand? Who knows, but those that can offer the cheapest prices will be in the best position for those that do not inherit anything after all. Those offering premium travel will most probably be hit the hardest, as both companies and individuals will most likely cut back a bit on that nice but pricey business class seat. We have seen that during the financial crisis, companies did cut back on international business bookings a lot and it took quite a few years for it to come back, and that was, after all, a pretty small crisis.

[RexBanner]

We have seen that during the financial crisis, companies did cut back on international business bookings a lot and it took quite a few years for it to come back, and that was, after all, a pretty small crisis.

When Lehman Brothers went bankrupt and most of the whole world financial system would have followed into the abyss but for the intervention of central banks and government? I know memory has the ability to be somewhat blunted with time but that was as far from “a pretty small crisis” as you can get.

(I agree though that it has the potential to be small in comparison to this but not in its own terms)

[stormin norman]

I'm currently booked with First choice /Tui

Being trying to contact them for 3 weeks but nobody has yet to answer the phone ( my phone battery only lasts for 2 hours)

I was happy to keep my booking and roll it over to next year but lack of information and communication wants me now to get my money back.

I know it's tough at the moment but keeping your customers in the current situation is key to staying in business.

[ATC Watcher]

It is a great shame that so many people believe what they are fed by the Daily Mail or similar...
If you actually go an look at the data you will find something like this:
Chances of dying if aged 85 and catching Covid-19: about 15%
Chances of dying in the next year of all causes if aged 85: about 15%
Wake up and pull the wool out of your eyes people!
Well I do not know which newspapers you read , but mine ( le Monde, Guardian , WSJ , NYT, etc.) all give a different picture . Even if you are 85 here is a big difference between dying of a stoke and spending 3 weeks in a ventilator to start with . That said the age bracket people ending up in hospital is much wider than only older people . From what I hear if you come out alive of the ventilator you lungs are so damaged that you cannot do much anymore. If you were correct the mass graves in NYC of the 16 pages obituaries in the Local Italians newspapers where it used to be 1 or 2 would all be fake news then ?
..

[covec]

BA & Easy in particular have been really shocking in offering refunds. In fact, has anyone been refunded, in cash, within 1 week as required BY EU LAW?

[777aviator]

I called BA on Tuesday 14 April to cancel a flight on 19 April. Held for less than 20 minutes. Avios returned within 24 hours and money back on my card by yesterday (Friday).

No complaints but I have been sitting on the refund call and hoping that most of the expected surge had passed. Did try about a week earlier but constantly cut off due volume of calls.

(not a regular poster as you can see but posted for balance)

[ORAC]

That could cripple EU airlines compared to the US, and other, competitors.

https://www.politico.eu/article/airlines-brace-for-climate-strings-attached-to-covid19-coronavirus-bailouts/

Airlines brace for climate strings attached to coronavirus bailouts

[bigbangx2]

To come back to the initial question, just check the cash amount of the airlines plus their business model.
Below 4 months without the possibility to reform the airline and without any state participation, it's done.
My two cents.

[Big Pistons Forever]

Not to worry it will all even out in the end. The state will pick winning airlines on the basis of maximizing short term political gain. Those chosen few will with the inevitable bean counter driven mentality of their executives, inflate airfares in order to goose this quarters returns and their bonuses which will open space for nimble new entrants who will undercut them but over expand on the basis of irrational exuberance that this time it is different; until it all comes crashing down the when the next world wide bad thing happens....

We have seen this movie before.

[CaptainProp]

I have not personally seen detailed financial updates from many companies yet but easyJet released this on Thursday:

“We estimate that our operating costs burn is in the region of £30-40 million per week, whilst the fleet is grounded. This compares to circa £125 million when flying a full schedule.”

“Upon closure of all these funding initiatives, we expect to have generated total additional liquidity of c.£1.85-£1.95bn leading to a notional cash balance of circa £3.3bn.”

“We have run scenario analysis assuming that our fleet remains fully grounded for 3 months, 6 months and 9 months,”

“This analysis has shown that we have sufficient cash reserves to remain liquid across a number of scenarios:

o During a 3-month grounding easyJet would use around £1.2bn in cash;

o During a 6-month grounding we would use around £2.2bn in cash;

o During a 9-month grounding we would use around £3.0bn in cash.”

Full report here:

Trading Update for Six Months ending 31 March 2020 (http://otp.investis.com/clients/uk/easyjet1/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=2&newsid=1386076)


CP

[ATC Watcher]

“We have run scenario analysis assuming that our fleet remains fully grounded for 3 months, 6 months and 9 months,”
Good planning , cash reserves and transparency . EZY definitively will be one that still will be there in 6 months time ..( which by now has become October )

[cashash]

Good on EZY to lay out the costs and what preparations they have made. If the other airlines were as transparent then that would go a long way to giving confidence to their staff.

[Jetscream 32]

Interesting and transparent update for sure, especially having started a sale/leaseback with lessors on 50% of the fleet - BUT what happens to the £3 billion cash burn when the return to flying might only utilise 10% of the fleet on 10% of the routes, growing at a tempered rate until all borders re-open and public confidence returns - the fact remains, getting bums on seats is not going to be immediate for 126/189 capacity aircraft so how long can they continue to operate with a less than 50% load factor... How do they last the next 24 months before the fleet can even begin to get anywhere close to load factors they are used to?

[dirk85]

They sold and leased back 20% of the fleet. Before this crisis 70% of the fleet was owned, now it's "only" 50%.

[jan99]

Personally my wife and I would be happy to take 1/3 our normal number of intercontinental flights and pay 3x the price of a ticket, if social distancing etc., etc., etc. would be rigorously adhered to on those flights and at the airports. Flight revenue for the airline would be roughly the same.
I wonder whether there would be a market for that: same number of flights, 1/3 occupation, triple price; 1/3 the number of passengers per day.
At present there is an all or nothing situation - some thinking should go towards changing the business.

[Paul852]

Isn't that called "Business Class"? People have tried running business-class-only flights. It didn't work.

[jan99]

It is not comfort that would be offered but safety. Quite a different product I would think.

[Paul852]

There will always be an alternative, because the vast majority of people are happy to take the minuscule risk of flying economy class rather than pay 3 times the price for a business class seat.

[ZFT]

Personally my wife and I would be happy to take 1/3 our normal number of intercontinental flights and pay 3x the price of a ticket, if social distancing etc., etc., etc. would be rigorously adhered to on those flights and at the airports. Flight revenue for the airline would be roughly the same.
I wonder whether there would be a market for that: same number of flights, 1/3 occupation, triple price; 1/3 the number of passengers per day.
At present there is an all or nothing situation - some thinking should go towards changing the business.

I'm intrigued. How will you get to/from the airport and what will you actually do at the destination? You cannot control every single person you will come in contact with.

All seems rather pointless.

[CaptainProp]

Interesting and transparent update for sure, especially having started a sale/leaseback with lessors on 50% of the fleet - BUT what happens to the £3 billion cash burn when the return to flying might only utilise 10% of the fleet on 10% of the routes, growing at a tempered rate until all borders re-open and public confidence returns - the fact remains, getting bums on seats is not going to be immediate for 126/189 capacity aircraft so how long can they continue to operate with a less than 50% load factor... How do they last the next 24 months before the fleet can even begin to get anywhere close to load factors they are used to?

That’s not the question here. If it was, easyJet and all other European airlines would have to throw in the towel now without even trying to save the business. Is that what you are suggesting?

The £3bn are various types of credits that are paid back on commercial terms. I thought that was clear or? We have already seen that creditors (aircraft lessors for example) have been flexible with payback terms for companies with healthy finances pre-corona, not so for companies where creditors have had doubts in future of companies.

Also, nothing is indicating that European airlines will be grounded for 9 months and everything is indicating that they will be completely grounded for about 2-3 months. From there ops are likely to start up in steps around Europe with some countries / routes opening up earlier than other. That leaves at least £1.5bn in reserves, or about £200m per month, from start of ops to support the company through the coming 6-8 months.

CP

[Jetscream 32]

It's certainly not about throwing the towel in - it is about the ability to repay the £600 million it has drawn down due for repayment in March 2021 (which will come round very quickly) as required by HMG as part of the credit paper - If you have to dip further into other credit revolver facilities having leveraged yourself before the market recovers to a point of viability then you start to run out of runway very quickly.

Of all the airlines EZY is by far the most viable, along with the Green machine, however, my point being is that absolutely no-one is talking about recovery planning financial forecasts - they are just saying we can last this long based us on having this much money in the bank or that can be drawn upon.

Lasting any amount of time is one thing but saying - when we eventually get airborne again in 'x' months, we expect to utilise 'x' amount of the fleet at 'x' load factor over 'x' amount of time increasing at an average rate of 'x' per quarter - this will then at least demonstrate they have got a handle on reality and confidence that it has been financially modelled, thought about and that the staff will feel confident - this SHOULD be done so that the staff at least know there is a long term future and they are not going to be hung out to dry if the situation didn't go as the board predicted.

Thinking there is going to be some magic snap back to November 2019 normality is not happening anytime soon. We are all desperate for it to and I doubt there is a single person that doesn't want it to happen lightning-quick, but it shouldn't stop anyone being realistic and modelling what a re-start looks like

[Big Pistons Forever]

What I am worried about is that we see the imposition of aviation specific health care theater just like the current joke of airport security which is really just security theater; that is measures designed to make people feel better but don't actually do much to make travel safer.

Society seems to be getting worse and worse at making rational risk-reward decisions. Half filling airliners means air travel will only be available if you are rich, and IMO is policy madness disadvantaging whole segments of the population for virtually no real gain.

The bottom line is that air travel, especially international air travel is the primary means contagious diseases like the Corona virus spreads, so what are the procedures to put in place to make sure people who are sick don't get on airplanes ?

[CaptainProp]

Jetscream 32, that would be great information but nobody, and I mean NOBODY, knows what and when those pax numbers are going to be.

So here they are, all airlines not just easyJet, trying to survive these next months and then deal with next hurdle. I guess the taxpayers will want their money back so payback terms of government COVID19 loan facilities will be renegotiated if needed. If not, we’ll potentially see quite a few companies filing for bankruptcy and defaulting on government loans which means money is gone. In easyJet’s case, and likely all other financially viable companies, I presume they’ll go to the commercial market for loan swap deal to get out of government loans as soon as it is possible.

An operational point to remember is also that costs will only really rise beyond reported £120m / month if and when the fleet gets activated and crew called in from the various furlough schemes. In other words, aircraft and crew will only get activated when there is a business case for that to happen. I think business will get going in some bases and on some routes pretty quickly, but take much longer time elsewhere. For employees this means that some will stay on furlough pay for a much longer time than other will.

CP

[Jetscream 32]

Jetscream 32, that would be great information but nobody, and I mean NOBODY, knows what and when those pax numbers are going to be. CP

Absolutely agree with everything you say - I was talking about financial modelling only to at least understand if you go from 120 to 150 to 190 burn rate per month you know how long you’ve got with the remaining cash you have whilst starting to incur more operating costs - pray for continued free oil 🤣

Upon hearing Prof Whitty tonight and hearing from a govt colleague in Spain there seems very slim to nil capability for anything to restart other than in low capacity form in 2020...

[cashash]

Upon hearing Prof Whitty tonight and hearing from a govt colleague in Spain there seems very slim to nil capability for anything to restart other than in low capacity form in 2020...


I thought the same when I heard him - if social distancing continues to be mandated for the rest of the year as he suggests then I dont see how any passenger airline can restart services on a commercial basis in 2020.

Perhaps the title of the thread should be changed to 'Who will survive this and be here in 18 months?' because this year is going to pretty much cease to exist in aviation terms.

[Samju]

Indigo Airlines have decided to release full salary to staff and not effect the 15% cut as they intimated earlier. They have also not furloughed anyone till date. Some silver lining in otherwise deep dark clouds

[Havingwings4ever]

What Iam hearing through my pos in the union, and talking to different unions and management's, it's clear load factors will not be back to 'normal' for at least the end of the year. Every airline has unique financial aspects but the focus will be on cost cutting through fuel hedging(the current fuel price is a gift that wont last), labor cost, get rid of certain overhead and negotiating leases. It's clear that labor cost will have to be substantially cut at least for the length of which revenues are heavily impacted and employees will hopefully fight to keep everybody employed at lower wages instead of having lower seniority laid off trying to protect the current wages. I remember where pilots were facing this choice a few years ago and chose to have a lot of their colleagues laid off in order to protect their pay( it was more complicated but beyond the scope here).
I really hope unions will focus on keeping current employees employed through temporary benefit cuts which should be recouped when things are better again.

[Satoshi Nakamoto]

How are you going to get the passengers from the terminal to the aircraft if it is parked on a remote stand. You cannot stand on a crowded bus with your face in someone's armpit? The days of 25 minute turnarounds are over with social distancing and the cabin will need a deep clean down route. MOL says 66.6% (middle seat empty) load factor will not pay.

[bringbackthe80s]

What Iam hearing through my pos in the union, and talking to different unions and management's, it's clear load factors will not be back to 'normal' for at least the end of the year. Every airline has unique financial aspects but the focus will be on cost cutting through fuel hedging(the current fuel price is a gift that wont last), labor cost, get rid of certain overhead and negotiating leases. It's clear that labor cost will have to be substantially cut at least for the length of which revenues are heavily impacted and employees will hopefully fight to keep everybody employed at lower wages instead of having lower seniority laid off trying to protect the current wages. I remember where pilots were facing this choice a few years ago and chose to have a lot of their colleagues laid off in order to protect their pay( it was more complicated but beyond the scope here).
I really hope unions will focus on keeping current employees employed through temporary benefit cuts which should be recouped when things are better again.

How about keeping the mid and upper management at lower pay and zero bonuses

[Satoshi Nakamoto]

How about keeping the mid and upper management at lower pay and zero bonuses

How about getting rid of the middle management?

[SINGAPURCANAC]

https://www.aerotime.aero/clement.charpentreau/24864-italian-government-expects-coronavirus-to-save-alitalia

Not only...but...as well.

[jan99]

I'm intrigued. How will you get to/from the airport and what will you actually do at the destination? You cannot control every single person you will come in contact with.

All seems rather pointless.

Drive to the airport. Rent a car at the other end. Airports and airport facilities must have taken measures ofcourse to ensure distancing. Not all that complicated it seems to me.

[ATC Watcher]

. Airports and airport facilities must have taken measures of course to ensure distancing. Not all that complicated it seems to me.
Not all airports apparently . a friend sent me some photos from Twitter of a full A320 from CDG to MRS yesterday , no masks , no airport control either on departure or arrival ,queuing, business as before it seems .for some :rolleyes:..
here : twitter CDG MRS
Wizzair is flying East European migrant workers to Aspargus flieds in the Netherlands in big numbers ..same apparently .

[CaptainProp]

https://www.aerotime.aero/clement.charpentreau/24864-italian-government-expects-coronavirus-to-save-alitalia

Not only...but...as well.

That's just laughable. If they haven't been able to run the business with profits during years when competitors booked billions in profits then why would they now?? There is zero chance of current situation benefiting Alitalia and it will not "kick off in the same position as other airlines once the market recovers.”. I hope for the sake of all the employees in Alitalia that the company will survive, but it will only ever survive on continued life support from the government.

CP

[SINGAPURCANAC]

@Atc watcher,
Do you remember when They introduced ban for liquid more than 100ml ?? And, all of sudden, after passing security check, there were ( and still there) wending automat selling water 0,5 l for just 2$. Some evil voices spoke that owner of all these "machines" is son of high level politician.
Expect the same, today. Why?
Because son must work something. Either in dutch greenhouses or sell sometning ( masks, gloves etc) to happy passengers.
😀😊

[JanetFlight]

MoL....oppssss🙄
https://onemileatatime.com/ryanair-ceo-interview/

[White Knight]

The days of 25 minute turnarounds are over with social distancing and the cabin will need a deep clean down route.

One day after this 'pandemic' social distancing will have gone... So yes, the 25 min turnarounds will be back!

[JanetFlight]

One day after this 'pandemic' social distancing will have gone... So yes, the 25 min turnarounds will be back!

Give it an year and half +/-, a working vaccine, some virus normal weakening&people immunity and memories erasure process and yeap, indeed... No doubts about that.

[Big Pistons Forever]

Give it an year and half +/-, a working vaccine, some virus normal weakening&people immunity and memories erasure process and yeap, indeed... No doubts about that.

Peoples memories are short, absolutely, but you still have to have money to travel especially for holiday travel which is entirely discretionary. The world wide wealth destruction that has occurred in the last month is unprecedented. For most average people it will take years to regain the financial position they had in January and many may never get back.

There are a range of possible outcomes and my guess is a good as yours, but the possibility of a permanent reset of the airline industry to a smaller footprint dominated by a few major players with near monopoly pricing power is definitely one of the possible outcomes. My personal opinion worth exactly what you paid for it, is that this is what I think is the most likely outcome.

[foxcharliep2]

Give it an year and half +/-, a working vaccine, some virus normal weakening&people immunity and memories erasure process and yeap, indeed... No doubts about that.

Hope you are right - but here we are 40 years after the HIV virus and no vaccine found yet .... so I have my doubts about your comment.

[CaptainProp]

Hope you are right - but here we are 40 years after the HIV virus and no vaccine found yet .... so I have my doubts about your comment.

You can’t compare HIV to a corona type virus, it’s a completely different type of virus. Just do a little bit of reading at least. If nothing else you’ll learn something new.

CP

[EcamSurprise]

Drive to the airport. Rent a car at the other end. Airports and airport facilities must have taken measures ofcourse to ensure distancing. Not all that complicated it seems to me.

And of course hope that the rent a car was properly disinfected..

[3Greens]

There’s no vaccine for HIV, but big pharmaceutical companies make a load of money with the antiviral drugs that treat the disease though....make of that what you will.

[JanetFlight]

https://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-eco/air-france-va-engager-un-plan-de-depart-volontaire-20200425?fbclid=IwAR0DkNIDZ6z39-gec0uw_jMWP0PsOcrj_qy2JKRVqM5zgRZ854znrCdZQrE

Air France will need 7 thousand million euros, will start to "release" staff with voluntary/mutual accordance and wont expect to return to normality at least within 2 years from now...

[CaptainProp]

There’s no vaccine for HIV, but big pharmaceutical companies make a load of money with the antiviral drugs that treat the disease though....make of that what you will.

Or perhaps people should make some research before jumping to conclusions?

Here's a link highlighting the problems scientists are having with HIV:

https://www.healthline.com/health/hiv-aids/vaccine-how-close-are-we#obstacles

This is particularly interesting as some seems to think finding a corona vaccine is going to be equally hard to come up with as it is with HIV.

"Most vaccines protect against viruses that enter the body through the respiratory or gastrointestinal systems. More viruses enter the body in these two ways, so we have more experience addressing them. But HIV enters the body most often through genital surfaces or the blood. We have less experience protecting against viruses that enter the body in those ways."

"Vaccines protect against disease, not infection. HIV is an infection until it progresses to stage 3, or AIDS (https://www.healthline.com/health/hiv-aids/hiv-vs-aids). With most infections, vaccines buy the body more time to clear the infection on its own before disease occurs. However, HIV has a long dormant period before it progresses to AIDS. During this period, the virus hides itself in the DNA of the person with the virus. The body can’t find and destroy all of the hidden copies of the virus to cure itself. So, a vaccine to buy more time won’t work with HIV."

This last quote is talking about latent provirus (virus genome integrated into the DNA of the host cell) reservoirs in the CD4+ T cells. This is one of the huge challenges with finding a vaccine and a cure for HIV.

Finding a vaccine for the COVID19, and similar virus, on the other hand is routine work for medical professionals and scientists today. They just need time and from what I can see we are talking about 12-18 months before we have one (or more) available for mass distribution / vaccination.

Don't let facts ruin a good story though. ;-)

CP

[GS-Alpha]

CP, we do not even know whether someone who has fully recovered from this disease has any reasonable immunity to reinfection. We also do not know whether immunity to one strain (if that is even possible) gives immunity to another. Many teams are having a go at finding a useful vaccine because finding one is probably our best solution to this problem, but success is by no means a given.

[foxcharliep2]

CP, we do not even know whether someone who has fully recovered from this disease has any reasonable immunity to reinfection. We also do not know whether immunity to one strain (if that is even possible) gives immunity to another. Many teams are having a go at finding a useful vaccine because finding one is probably our best solution to this problem, but success is by no means a given.

Yep, well said. Doesn't seem to me like this is "routine work" and all we need is "time".

[bringbackthe80s]

Going back to the ot.

I think more than a few people are trying to predict what’s going to happen based on common logic, previous economy patterns etc.

The thing is, this is not a case of which company is richer, bigger, older. This is a case of which companies can get money and credit lines from governments, shareholders and banks.
There is simply no way any private air transport business can survive something like this.

Just look at which group any given airline belongs to, or who are the shareholders, or if it’s backed by their governments and you’ll have a pretty accurate idea of who has a chance.

In a (not so) extreme example, nothing would stop all private airlines being wiped from the globe, and starting from scratch in a couple of years with new, debt free companies. Just saying.

Commercial aviation is vital to any country’s economy. VITAL. So in a couple of years time it will probably be almost normal. Between now and then, what I said before.
Good luck to all of us.

[Less Hair]

Rather unpleasant outlook but it's the same for many if not all industries and trades it seems. It looks like Corona crisis will not just take some months but maybe this entire year - at least. So we need strategies to return to normal before we in fact are back at (new) normal.

[TelsBoy]

Very worrying times for the industry. No exit strategy means a complete impossibility to plan any recovery. Then this nugget appears today:-

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52439405

It appears some with an agenda are using this crisis as an opportunity to hit the aviation industry hard under the "Climate Change" banner. "Protect the NHS" is the UK Govt's strapline. Many seem to not understand that no economy = no tax income = no NHS. Aviation is a key economic pillar.

Whether we are aircrew, air traffic, engineering, ground support, manufacturers or any one of the plethora of related trades that make up this industry, we are all suffering here. Together we must stand. Stay safe all.

[Fostex]

When the NHS hero-worship groupthink descends into resentment because of delayed diagnosis, delayed surgery, grannies not getting ventilated etc, at least we'll have videos of clapping and high-fives. Should be of comfort to those of us when the emails concerning litigations start coming in from the trust.

Completely agree that the long-view needs to start being taken, it hasn't to date.

[cashash]

It appears some with an agenda are using this crisis as an opportunity to hit the aviation industry hard under the "Climate Change" banner. "Protect the NHS" is the UK Govt's strapline. Many seem to not understand that no economy = no tax income = no NHS. Aviation is a key economic pillar.



Very true - with todays news, if the 50,000 jobs in the UK that rely on Airbus are lost along with million other jobs that depend on aviation that is a going to be a big hit to the ability to pay for things like the NHS.

[ATC Watcher]

The UK letter said: "If public money is used to save them, they must be required by law to do more to tackle climate change.

"They must be obliged to follow in the footsteps of many in the industry that have implemented ambitious carbon offsetting schemes."

Worrying indeed as it is exactly the same issue in France, Macron needs support from the ecologist parties ( green parties) to govern and win the next elections . His own Environment minister has declared this morning on a radio program that the Government will ensure that public money granted to help AF will be met by assurances that CO2 emissions will be drastically reduced , and that domestic flights will be restricted to favor SNCF high speed trains .
Ben Smith ( CEO AF) has apparently agreed to this and is reported to have also declared that it will take at least 2 years to get out of the current crisis .

[Loose rivets]

Knowledgeable people down the pub used to explain to me why inflation was a good thing. I never did get the hang of it, despite being cushioned by it for a large part of my life. I'm not very proud of that by the way.

I hear Acme Air is expanding. What's the job situation? Just swap Acme for a slew of names and you'll know what I've been hearing for most of my flying life. Expansion is a company necessity, right? It's part of a model that can't function as a stable entity. I never understood why.

A neighbour of mine owned a lot of the town. I asked his advice about leasing office space. "The future rent will reflect the new value of the property. Investors expect that." Councils seem to have similar notions about rates. I understood unstable business models that so closely emulated greed.

I've never really understood why a world can't be run on cooperation and kindness, and nor it seems has a major nation, since such concepts could get one lynched. And now we've arrived at a point that we're ill-equipped to handle. Oh, we're making the right noises, but the truth of the situation has been spelled out in posts above, and for this reason we, that is all nations, shouldn't expect to go back to the pre-virus life we led. It is simply too dangerous - and that's trading and fiscal danger I'm talking about. We know about the risk of patchy Covid-19 flare-ups, but the danger of a second, or third quick-succession virus is statistically too real. The entire world needs to be braced for at least one added pandemic.

Talk of 'getting back to normal' fills me with unease, primarily because in so many people it feeds feel-good circuits in brains that are not seeing a history-altering danger any more clearly than they can see virions.

[ATC Watcher]

https://www.eurocontrol.int/sites/default/files/2020-04/eurocontrol-aviation-recovery-factsheet-27042020.pdf
Eurocontrol forecast issued yesterday . very optimistic on both scenarios if you ask me , (but they did not :) ) because this is not what I hear when talking to people around me .
The so called Chinese recovery cannot really be transposed in Europe and private airlines will not fly empty aircraft around to please their Governments statistics....
The medical people everywhere are now preparing for a second wave as restrictions are lifted too early for political reasons . Then the effects mentioned by Loose Rivets on his post above might slow down even more aviation as we knew it .