Who will survive this and be here in 6 months ?

[Joe le Taxi]

The UK 2 week quarantine for arrivals doesn't seem to be fake news; absolutely insane but they really are actually proposing this.

If that goes ahead, then all UK operators (and most international businesses) may as well board up the windows and turn off the lights.

[Chris2303]

It's worked incredibly well here in NZ.

[Joe le Taxi]

For the airlines, or for the spread of the virus?

If the latter, nailing everyone's door shut works even better, but eventually everyone starves.

[ATC Watcher]

That is the current politicians dilemma : who to listen to : scientific medical evidence based facts or business economic lobbies..Lifting the travel restrictions and you most probably get a second wave..I think the drone footage of the mass graves being dug in areas in New York and London might switch public opinion in favor of the medical guys .. Many Countries have current 2 weeks quarantine for arrivals, and as Chris2303 said, it works quite well for them .

[Fostex]

Population of NZ >10x less than UK, UK is a European business and financial hub. NZ contained their limited number of cases very well, UK had to mitigate against extensive community spread.

The problem for NZ is managing their borders going forward. NZ is a country that is massively dependent on tourism. It is the country's largest export industry in terms of foreign exchange earnings and directly employs one in eight New Zealanders. No one is going to want to go on an adventure holiday to the land of Hobbits if it first means spending 14 days in a hotel room eating room service.

[alosaurus]

Talk about gross over reaction....once the cases get down to an acceptable level worldwide issue pax with masks to reduce occasional infected spreading their droplets. Get the HEPA filters working on turn arounds and you have pax entering the purest air environment outside operating theatres.

[Nightstop]

Except it’s the policy of some airlines not to run the APU for air conditioning during turnarounds to save money and prohibited by some tree hugging countries for noise abatement.

[alosaurus]

I was in the Far East with SARs et al and this was mandated as it was one of the most effective measures Airlines could take. The tree huggers are going to find a lot less aircraft around after all this and will have to wind their necks in on this one.

[guy_incognito]

It is frankly jaw dropping that governments seem absolutely content to completely destroy their economies for the sake of prolonging a few (in the grand scheme of things) lives. Future generations who will be paying the price of this for their entire working lives will not look kindly on the catastrophic overreaction. Society has been conditioned to believe that every life is priceless and must be saved at any cost. In reality a death is a tragedy for the people directly affected by it, but the world keeps turning and ultimately doesn't care.

People will still want to travel when this is over. Brits will want to take holidays. Political pressure to enable leisure and business travel is going to be immense. A Spanish politician was posturing recently, stating that Brits wouldn't be allowed into Spain as tourists because of the time it took for the lockdown to be implemented here. I suspect that other tourist hotspots (Greece, Turkey, Egypt etc.) will have a more pragmatic attitude if the Spanish insist on being intransigent. Plans for a two week quarantine for returning tourists will, I strongly suspect, be quietly shelved.

[lederhosen]

Guy has put one point of view. As an experienced captain having flown Boeings and Airbus for many years I have some interest in returning to flying. But if we take the other extreme, hopefully not likely but still possible, then there are a number of risks that still need to be considered. The first one is that we may not develop any meaningful immunity and a vaccine will prove elusive. Add to this equation that those previously infected might even get it worse the second time, particularly if they have lasting damage from the previous illness. Then things could get pretty bleak. Under this scenario this is not just going to kill a lot of the old and infirm but could affect a lot of others, not just in terms of people dying but those left disabled. I am not saying this the most probable scenario, and people may still want to continue as before. But it is not quite as simple as saying we have an end game and the sooner we exit the current measures the better off we will all be.

[PilotLZ]

Think about it the way we do in aviation safety. If we halt any activity, we will bring the risk of any accident, incident or other abnormal occurrence to zero. However, that's obviously not the way forward as we won't survive for very long just sitting there and doing nothing. Therefore, we need to get going, accepting the inevitable risks and managing them appropriately.

The same goes for the current situation, I think. Lives can be saved from coronavirus by imposing total lockdown ad infinitum. But thus, far more lives will be lost to other causes in the long-term run. Poverty and famine, social unrest, increased violent crime rate, deterioration in existing health conditions, deterioration in mental health and whatnot else. Panic and its consequences kill people in themselves. Think about the significant drop in reported deaths from heart attack. Is this because people have all of a sudden become less susceptible to cardiovascular disease? Unfortunately not. It's because many fear seeking medical help for fear of being infected with the virus. And end up dying of something which could have been very well brought under control in other circumstances.

I am still optimistic that governments will realise this at some point and bring this insanity to a controlled end. Let young and healthy individuals go about their normal lives with appropriate protective measures in place. Protect the old, frail and chronically ill. It will still be a long journey, but this way there's at least some hope of a happy end in the coming years. And, hopefully, some cash flowing to keep aviation afloat in the meantime.

[guy_incognito]

The first one is that we may not develop any meaningful immunity and a vaccine will prove elusive. Add to this equation that those previously infected might even get it worse the second time, particularly if they have lasting damage from the previous illness. Then things could get pretty bleak. Under this scenario this is not just going to kill a lot of the old and infirm but could affect a lot of others, not just in terms of people dying but those left disabled.

From what I've read, there is definitely not unbridled optimism within the immunology community that a vaccine is likely to be effective, neither does it seem remotely likely that exposure to the virus will confer full immunity, at least not long term. Therefore, unless we are prepared to accept the end of society as we know it, at some point we're going to have to accept that this virus is something that we're going to have to live with. The additional risk is minimal in the vast majority of cases.

Tens of millions of people will die over the coming years unless the virus becomes significantly less virulent. Most of them would have died in short order of another cause. Of course, some of the dead will be hitherto healthy individuals in the prime of their life, some will be children. There's no point burying our heads in the sand and pretending that this isn't a likely scenario. However, the consequences of shutting down economies and driving millions into poverty over a virus which has a mortality rate that by all reasonable accounts is far lower than 1% are simply unthinkable, and the product of a hysterical and catastrophic media driven overreaction. There will be a shift in the balance of public opinion. It's just a matter of when that shift occurs, but it will be sooner rather than later.

Edited to add: PilotLZ above was writing at the same time as me. His (or her) points are an excellent synopsis. Ultimately, life is not a risk free event.

[lederhosen]

I certainly hope we will get back in the air soon. If the virus has actually spread more widely and immunity in the population develops, then things could move quite quickly in a positive direction. But there is no clear evidence yet. I see the ONS has issued the latest UK mortality numbers for the week before last. The trend is not surprisingly bleak, 22,000 deaths versus an average of just over 10,000 for the corresponding week over the last five years and an increase of about 4,000 on the week before, which was already the worst this century. So things are by no means over, although with talk of the peak being passed it should improve over the coming weeks. I am actually more on the side of coming out of the restrictions sooner rather than later and it is perfectly plausible that once things improve the death rate may improve substantially as people who would otherwise have died have already passed away. But it is going to be a while before governments worldwide make coordinated decisions about this.

[procede]

I have heard that how the virus infects you is also very dependant on how and with how much of the virus you get infected. If you get a few virus particles in you mouth, you will most likely survive, as your immune systems has sufficient time to respond. Get a few million deep in your lungs and anyone will be in serious trouble, possibly even if you have been infected before. So social distancing and/or masks (and possibly UV light) will probably remain an important part of our lives for a long time to come.

[ATC Watcher]

Agree with you both lederhosen and PilotLZ.
Guy incognito : As we speak in a remote area in Germany not far from where I live, a small village cemetery crematorium is working H24 with a lot refrigerated truck trailers from France and Belgium parked in streets blocking the nearby residential area. The total number of people dying at the moment is far above normal in those countries , whether due to the COVID 19 or other causes because hospitals are either full or people are afraid to go to them .

[guy_incognito]

ATC Watcher: I don’t necessarily disagree with your assessment that the figures may be under-reported.

With that said, the (questionable) Imperial study that the government seems to have heavily relied on in the UK (or at least been sufficiently spooked by to be spurred into a change in policy) has as its worst case doomsday scenario a death toll of 500,000 in the UK if no measures were taken. In absolute terms that is a big number, but it’s still an extremely small proportion of the UK population. Even that worst case projection cannot logically justify the damage currently being wrought on the economy.

[Joe le Taxi]

Lederhosen - did you read that somewhere or is that speculation? Everything I have read has said that if there isn't lasting immunity, then at least subsequent attacks would be LESS severe. And long term side effects are minimal for cases not requiring an ICU (eg a few examples of the lung "ground glass opacity" though even that may heal - long term data is of course, not available).

[lederhosen]

To answer Joe le Taxi I posted a reference last week on the jet blast virus thread about evidence of worrying damage to the lungs amongst a cohort with relatively mild illness (not requiring ICU treatment as reported by doctors at the main hospital in Innsbruck) and there has subsequently been more of the same from other sources. Another issue appears to be that the virus can cause inflammation leading to damage in other organs as well. It is too early to tell how big an issue this is. I am not aware of anyone with these types of injury being reinfected and let's hope that cannot happen. But equally there is no proof to the contrary. There are diseases where previous infection reduces subsequent severity. But there are also examples (like Dengue) which get worse.

[homonculus]

A year ago if people had suggested taking affirmative action to kill 500,000 British citizens, they would have been sent to the funny farm. And that is the issue. It isnt the guy in the street nor the 4 striper who stops or eases lockdown, it is the government, and that means the cabinet or perhaps just Boris.....It must be the most difficult quandary. If they get it wrong, not getting re elected will be the least of their problems.

The comment about New Zealand not only shows how the UK and some other countries failed dismally, but also the problems moving forward. Many industries will restart, and some havent even stopped, but tourism, hospitality and transportation will be badly effected by reduced demand from frightened citizens and ongoing restrictions from frightened politicians until there is a vaccine. Fortunately it is very very likely one of the many vaccines will work, and if it is one of the early ones and we can develop manufacturing capacity (purely a matter of money and will power) we could vaccinate 70% of the developed world, except perhaps the USA, by Q1 next year

[GeeRam]

I have heard that how the virus infects you is also very dependant on how and with how much of the virus you get infected. If you get a few virus particles in you mouth, you will most likely survive, as your immune systems has sufficient time to respond. Get a few million deep in your lungs and anyone will be in serious trouble, possibly even if you have been infected before. So social distancing and/or masks (and possibly UV light) will probably remain an important part of our lives for a long time to come.

^This.

Viral load is the factor here that many simply don't either understand or want to understand, and the implications on our industry, or indeed all public transport systems.

I have a relative by marriage, that is struggling to recover from Covid19, as he worked for TfL on the London Underground and was clearly heavily exposed over many days to the virus from being in close proximity to many people carrying it. Middle aged but no underlying health issues. There have been a number of London bus drivers die from it from similar expose. Just as many of the health workers have died from it as well.
Getting on an aircraft for 10-12 hours long haul couped up with many people that maybe infected is not really a great idea, nor will sitting on a crowded bus or train be either.

This virus needs a animal or human body to survive and mutiply, deny it one of those for long enough and you get rid of it.....but if its still dotted around the world and people are travelling around the world it will never be erased, and potentially could mutate into something far worse.

Trying to get back to a normal too soon could spell a greater disaster for the human race than the one currently being experienced.

My job in aviation is gone, and I doubt I'll ever work in aviation again, but tourism and travel has to be put on hold now for the short term, to stand any chance to this being dealt with.

[guy_incognito]

A year ago if people had suggested taking affirmative action to kill 500,000 British citizens, they would have been sent to the funny farm. And that is the issue. It isnt the guy in the street nor the 4 striper who stops or eases lockdown, it is the government, and that means the cabinet or perhaps just Boris.....It must be the most difficult quandary. If they get it wrong, not getting re elected will be the least of their problems.

The comment about New Zealand not only shows how the UK and some other countries failed dismally, but also the problems moving forward. Many industries will restart, and some havent even stopped, but tourism, hospitality and transportation will be badly effected by reduced demand from frightened citizens and ongoing restrictions from frightened politicians until there is a vaccine. Fortunately it is very very likely one of the many vaccines will work, and if it is one of the early ones and we can develop manufacturing capacity (purely a matter of money and will power) we could vaccinate 70% of the developed world, except perhaps the USA, by Q1 next year

It is highly unlikely (albeit not impossible) that a vaccine will be developed this year, but vaccinating 70% of the developed world (why leave out the US?) is pure fantasy on any timescale, let alone less than a year.

As you’ve said, the big calls are being made by politicians who will simply never make any decisions Sir Humphrey would dub ‘courageous’. What we’re witnessing is the ultimate in big government expansionism and nanny-statism, roared on by a media apparatus, much of which would usually rail against the excesses of the state (Daily Mail, The Express etc.).

For those in the high risk category, self isolating is probably prudent, though it shouldn’t be mandatory. For the majority however, the extra alcohol and takeaways they’re consuming during this intervening period is more likely to be injurious to their health than novel coronavirus.

[homonculus]

It is highly unlikely (albeit not impossible) that a vaccine will be developed this year, but vaccinating 70% of the developed world (why leave out the US?) is pure fantasy on any timescale, let alone less than a year.

There are at least seven vaccines being tested on humans or about to be, all from reputable labs with good track records. There is I agree no guarantee but the track record suggests that about 2 will become commercial. I am more optimistic than you. We do indeed vaccinate 70% or more of the susceptible in the developed world with flu vaccine every winter and the only reason we dont vaccinate 70% of more people is cost. We universally aim to vaccinate with MMR and other vaccines and achieve well over 70%. If the money is there to manufacture, 70% is achievable in about a year. The reason I say not the USA is simply because their record with flu vaccine is abysmal primarily because it isnt free at point of use, and the price isnt 'cost plus' but many times more. Hence the US death rate per million population is higher due to less vaccination.

For the majority however, the extra alcohol and takeaways they’re consuming during this intervening period is more likely to be injurious to their health than novel coronavirus.

True, because if fully locked down the risk of Covid-19 is effectively zero. However without lockdown we may have seen 924,000 deaths over a matter of months. That is a lot of takeaways

[Loose rivets]

I write with a statistical life expectancy of 10 months, yet oddly, I still care a great deal about the dangers I see every day. Ordinary folk indeed don't 'want to understand' and are doubly blind to the dangers. They would hand out white feathers to non-singers if they could source the feathers. A tightly knit comminity all singing into the road at the same time in a light breeze. What could possibly go wrong?

My concern for the enemy taking on new form and gaining strength. BBC NEWS current now.Coronavirus: 'My son had symptoms of rare syndrome'

Doctors around the UK have been warning about a rare but serious syndrome that could be linked to the pandemic virus.

Philadelphia ~1919 is a horror story - and a mystery. It was linked to the flu but resembled the Plague of London. The case of one (or a few?) above, is not meaningful, but it's this kind of offshoot that we should be looking out for like hawks.

[rotorwills]

Looks like BA are taking necessary action in order to stay in the game and survive. No bail out from UK tax payers. It's tough for so many of our fellow aviation colleagues but at least BA are facing the music and taking action. So some will remain in a job unlike some other airlines who are destined to fail in this current climate which of course has pulled the rug from underneath them.

Its just the way of the present world.

[ATC Watcher]

@ Loose rivets : Philadelphia ~1919 is a horror story - and a mystery. It was linked to the flu but resembled the Plague of London. The case of one (or a few?) above, is not meaningful, but it's this kind of offshoot that we should be looking out for like hawks.
Did not know so you made me curious and I researched it . and I found this a the cause . very similar to the current situation in fact .But I do not think it is what you meant . Is there more behind those numbers ?

In the fall of 1918, the world came to a virtual standstill while Spanish influenza raged. In the United States, no other city suffered more than Philadelphia. The virus entered via the Philadelphia Navy Yard, arriving on a ship from Boston. As soldiers fell victim to the virus, city authorities believed the outbreak was under control and continued with plans to kick off the Fourth Liberty Loan drive with a parade September 28. After 200,000 people jammed the parade route, the virus exploded in the civilian population. For three months, hundreds of thousands of Philadelphians battled the virus, which, at the end, took over 13,000 lives. Schools, churches, saloons, and theaters closed, thirty-two emergency hospitals opened, and burying the dead became almost impossible. By November, the disease receded, and while the flu continued into the spring, its virulence decreased. As quickly and deadly as it struck Philadelphia, the influenza epidemic receded from collective memory and, largely forgotten, is barely mentioned in discussions of World War I.

[homonculus]

Philadelphia went ahead with the parade, St Louis cancelled it. Afterwards the Medical Officers compared the death rate in the two cities in a medical journal, concluding the parade was the sole cause.

Roll forward 100 years. Cheltenham race meeting and the Liverpool Madrid football match. Death rate from Covid19 around both venues higher than average

history teaches us about the future, but only if you want to learn

[neilki]

Philadelphia went ahead with the parade, St Louis cancelled it. Afterwards the Medical Officers compared the death rate in the two cities in a medical journal, concluding the parade was the sole cause.

Roll forward 100 years. Cheltenham race meeting and the Liverpool Madrid football match. Death rate from Covid19 around both venues higher than average

history teaches us about the future, but only if you want to learn
I'm based in Philly and drive down from New York City. Though the NY government has clearly been working very hard and the City is much more densely populated than Philadelphia; the death rates are starkly different. I think Philly remembered 1918 well and acted as such..
PHL:- 13k infections 550 deaths
NYC 157k infections 16,000 plus dead.
My front door in lower Manhattan to KPHL is 102 miles. (and New Jersey ...)

[Loose rivets]

Philadelphia was unusual because of the London plague-like speed with which people succumbed. This is what I'm getting at about needing to watch for sudden variations of symptoms.

[dingy737]

The novel corona virus became a pandemic primarily because of aviation, our industry, nothing else could provide it the ability to spread at highspeed, high volume and to every corner of the planet.

The world will be doubly cautious in providing it such carriage again. An epidemic anywhere is now an epidemic everywhere.

What then would allow countries to reopen their borders and airports, and resume the airline industry:


Vaccine. A vaccine would supposedly be the end game for Covid-19 and the Gold standard.
Test. Accurate, reliable, mobile, instant test. Results within 10 minutes, suitable for use prior to boarding.
Immunity. Medical consensus that individuals are immune after having covid-19. Individual health certificates to verify each passenger’s immunity status.
New Anti-viral medication that significantly reduces the severity of covid-19 risk and symptoms to that below currently accepted thresholds for communicable diseases. [ Regular Flu etc.].
Mandatory quarantine of 14 days at authorized centers for all incoming passengers.
Concluding that world isolation will become economically unsustainable, the effects of the cure becoming significantly worse than the effects of the Virus, forcing a shift to the Swedish approach; Protect and isolate the most vulnerable in society , allow free movement for all others while continuing social distancing, gloves, mask, washing of hands etc. [ a consensus between countries of travel]
If Covid-19 is truly considered a WAR of man versus virus, at some point, as in all previous World Wars, death becomes an acceptable collateral damage. It is what it is, and its ugly! [ Plan Z]

[MikeSnow]

A year ago if people had suggested taking affirmative action to kill 500,000 British citizens, they would have been sent to the funny farm.

I agree, it sounds crazy to me, even today. I've seen a previous comment comparing the COVID-19 response to how aviation safety is achieved, so I will make some comparisons between COVID 19 and MCAS on the 737 MAX. Yes, really :)

Before being grounded the 737 MAX had a fatality rate of 0.0004% per flight (2 crashes in 500,000 flights). Credible estimations for the COVID-19 IFR are somewhere between 0.5% and 1.0%. So being infected by COVID-19 could be least 1000 times more dangerous than flying on the MAX one time. And also harder to avoid.

With the estimated 500,000 COVID-19 deaths in UK, if the entire population gets infected, you would need to crash more than 2,500 737 MAXes full of people into the ground, just in the UK, to achieve a similar result. Only 387 MAXes have been delivered so far, so that wouldn't even work. Officially there are 21,678 COVID-19 deaths so far in the UK. That's equivalent to around 120 crashes of the 737 MAX so far. Just in the UK. Worldwide there are currently 217,571 COVID-19 deaths reported. That's equivalent to around 1,200 737 MAX crashes.

Assuming a 0.75% COVID-19 IFR, and the entire world population infected, you are looking at around 58 million deaths from COVID-19 worldwide. That's equivalent to about 320,000 737 MAX crashes. Yes, most of the "PAX" affected by COVID-19 will be old people. But it still sounds unacceptable to me, so "grounding" parts of the world economy to try preventing that makes sense in my opinion.

Looking at it in another way, the world gross product is only around 800 times higher that the yearly revenue of Boeing at its peak. And the MAX was grounded after just two crashes. We are at 1,200 COVID-19 equivalent "crashes" right now, so we are somewhere between the two MAX crashes in an equivalent timeline, except many parts of the world economy that were causing the risk have been grounded already, so we did better than the FAA did with the MAX to manage the risk. But some people are proposing to lift the COVID-19 "grounding", without eliminating most of the risk first. That sounds unwise to me.

[bringbackthe80s]

Spanish flu was spread by ships. Still, we keep building them.

Relax guys, it will go away. It’s just that right now no government has a clue of what’s going on.

[Bidule]

The novel corona virus became a pandemic primarily because of aviation, our industry, nothing else could provide it the ability to spread at highspeed, high volume and to every corner of the planet.

The world will be doubly cautious in providing it such carriage again. An epidemic anywhere is now an epidemic everywhere.

What then would allow countries to reopen their borders and airports, and resume the airline industry:

Vaccine. A vaccine would supposedly be the end game for Covid-19 and the Gold standard.
Test. Accurate, reliable, mobile, instant test. Results within 10 minutes, suitable for use prior to boarding.
Immunity. Medical consensus that individuals are immune after having covid-19. Individual health certificates to verify each passenger’s immunity status.
New Anti-viral medication that significantly reduces the severity of covid-19 risk and symptoms to that below currently accepted thresholds for communicable diseases. [ Regular Flu etc.].
Mandatory quarantine of 14 days at authorized centers for all incoming passengers.
Concluding that world isolation will become economically unsustainable, the effects of the cure becoming significantly worse than the effects of the Virus, forcing a shift to the Swedish approach; Protect and isolate the most vulnerable in society , allow free movement for all others while continuing social distancing, gloves, mask, washing of hands etc. [ a consensus between countries of travel]
If Covid-19 is truly considered a WAR of man versus virus, at some point, as in all previous World Wars, death becomes an acceptable collateral damage. It is what it is, and its ugly! [ Plan Z]



1-5: Same for trains, buses, cars?
Good luck to stop the riots!

.

[eimin]

Spanish flu was spread by ships. Still, we keep building them.

Relax guys, it will go away. It’s just that right now no government has a clue of what’s going on.

In my humble opinion, governments now have the toughest decision (yet to be made).
They either choose the card of life, meaning playing “Godlike” figure and saving everyone at any cost.
Or choose the card of economy.

Choosing the first makes everybody happy in the short term. Ethics are accomplished and we feel like we can win. But in this one, a bigger percentage of healthy individuals are being pushed into poverty.

Choosing the latter allows for a Swedish approach (not sure wether all countries will have the ability to behave like them). Protect the elderly and the people with higher risk profile. Allow free movement and improve the medical care system.

It seems to me that governments are reluctant to choose one. Accepting deaths, as previous members have mentioned, would allow for a clearer vision and planning.

Our super advanced societies made us believe we were not part of the natural cycle.

[Joe le Taxi]

Mandatory quarantine of 14 days at authorized centers for all incoming passengers quite the opposite - Again - do this and the airlines and airports will remain almost completely inactive. It makes holiday travel and business travel impractical ... leaving what?

[ATC Watcher]

Bidule : Good luck to stop the riots!
That is an aspect of the problem we have not discussed much yet. Looking at the news this morning the Lebanese situation is probably being closely watched by many politicians today . Lebanon had the effects of a disrupted economy starting a few months before everyone else,and now , this combined with the virus lockdown effect is starting to produce riots on the streets. They are now attacking and burning banks and ATMs. , meaning in a short while nobody will have access to cash anymore, an effective way to create even more chaos..
It would seem that the number of months a government can keep its citizens under economic duress before reactions on the streets start to get ugly is indeed in single digits .

[ZFT]

Bidule :
That is an aspect of the problem we have not discussed much yet. Looking at the news this morning the Lebanese situation is probably being closely watched by many politicians today . Lebanon had the effects of a disrupted economy starting a few months before everyone else,and now , this combined with the virus lockdown effect is starting to produce riots on the streets. They are now attacking and burning banks and ATMs. , meaning in a short while nobody will have access to cash anymore, an effective way to create even more chaos..
It would seem that the number of months a government can keep its citizens under economic duress before reactions on the streets start to get ugly is indeed in single digits .There’s another aspect that’s not discussed much and that’s the elder (older?) population.

Typically, 15%+ of the living depending upon ones definition of old.

Many of us already have existing death sentences and cannot afford to waste what life is remaining by sitting at home for even six months, let alone one year.

Again, typically this 15%+ have both disposable income and time and nothing to lose by going against the authoritarian rubbish that is being imposed.

Interesting times ahead I feel.

[Joe le Taxi]

There’s another aspect that’s not discussed much and that’s the elder (older?) population. Well, I'd say it is discussed, but in the form of telling the elderly what's good for them. The older population I have met and read about, mostly say they want lockdown lifted so they can LIVE, see their friends and family, and accept the risks of covid.

So who are the vast c.90% who supposedly poll as wanting the lockdown to continue? (amazingly a poll today found almost a third would still want lockdown to continue, even if all the conditions for lifting were met)! I do suspect part of it amongst 21st century, cosseted working age populations (especially lucky ones still being paid for doing nothing), is due to a form of cowardice, and also an increasing sedentary laziness (who by so doing, are at increased risk by their own hand through obesity and poor fitness). Wind back a century and people would laugh at a threat with such a tiny mortality rate. The tunnel vision on number of deaths, is blinding politicians to the infinitely greater number of diminished LIVES, and angsty media is similarly blinding their populations.

[yoganmahew]

That's right old guys, it's all young people doing it to you. You should be free to infect anyone you want, you have money after all. And 'they' had better open the airports up so you can fly where you like. It's an infringement on your fundamental right to be OK. Lazy cowards the lot of them. Humbug.

[CaptainProp]

“FOSTER CITY, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Apr. 29, 2020-- Gilead Sciences, Inc. (Nasdaq: GILD) today announced topline results from the open-label, Phase 3 SIMPLE trial evaluating 5-day and 10-day dosing durations of the investigational antiviral remdesivir in hospitalized patients with severe manifestations of COVID-19 disease.”

“The study demonstrates the potential for some patients to be treated with a 5-day regimen, which could significantly expand the number of patients who could be treated with our current supply of remdesivir. This is particularly important in the setting of a pandemic, to help hospitals and healthcare workers treat more patients in urgent need of care.”

https://www.gilead.com/news-and-press/press-room/press-releases/2020/4/gilead-announces-results-from-phase-3-trial-of-investigational-antiviral-remdesivir-in-patients-with-severe-covid-19

CP

[cats_five]

“FOSTER CITY, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Apr. 29, 2020-- Gilead Sciences, Inc. (Nasdaq: GILD) today announced topline results from the open-label, Phase 3 SIMPLE trial evaluating 5-day and 10-day dosing durations of the investigational antiviral remdesivir in hospitalized patients with severe manifestations of COVID-19 disease.”

“The study demonstrates the potential for some patients to be treated with a 5-day regimen, which could significantly expand the number of patients who could be treated with our current supply of remdesivir. This is particularly important in the setting of a pandemic, to help hospitals and healthcare workers treat more patients in urgent need of care.”

https://www.gilead.com/news-and-press/press-room/press-releases/2020/4/gilead-announces-results-from-phase-3-trial-of-investigational-antiviral-remdesivir-in-patients-with-severe-covid-19

CP

Before breaking out the champers, take a look at the false starts with Ebola treatment, for example:

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-research-flaws-in-trials-for-remdesivir-chloroquine-2020-4?r=US&IR=T

[ATC Watcher]

“FOSTER CITY, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Apr. 29, 2020-- Gilead Sciences, Inc. (Nasdaq: GILD) today announced topline results from the open-label, Phase 3 SIMPLE trial evaluating 5-day and 10-day dosing durations of the investigational antiviral remdesivir in hospitalized patients with severe manifestations of COVID-19 disease.”
“The study demonstrates the potential for some patients to be treated with a 5-day regimen, which could significantly expand the number of patients who could be treated with our current supply of remdesivir. This is particularly important in the setting of a pandemic, to help hospitals and healthcare workers treat more patients in urgent need of care.”
https://www.gilead.com/news-and-press/press-room/press-releases/2020/4/gilead-announces-results-from-phase-3-trial-of-investigational-antiviral-remdesivir-in-patients-with-severe-covid-19
CP
this is more a PR statement than a real breakthrough , reading further in the same PR :
Remdesivir is not yet licensed or approved anywhere globally and has not yet been demonstrated to be safe or effective for the treatment of COVID-19. This study sought to determine whether a shorter, 5-day course of remdesivir would achieve similar efficacy results as the 10-day treatment regimen used in multiple ongoing studies of remdesivir.

[dingy737]

Trains buses and cars are operating now. This is about opening borders and getting international air travel started. Which of the 7 options is realistic?

[CaptainProp]

this is more a PR statement than a real breakthrough , reading further in the same PR :


PR?? Of course it’s not approved(!), it’s initial results from a phase 3 trial. Did you even read the entire release?

“Gilead plans to submit the full data for publication in a peer-reviewed journal in the coming weeks.”

CP

[ATC Watcher]

PR = Press Release . and reading the contents it is just that.

[dohouch]

Spanish Gov. see external borders closed until October (in Spanish) (https://www.abc.es/economia/abci-gobierno-preve-cierre-fronteras-extienda-hasta-octubre-202004291812_noticia.html)

Put the Sangria on ice, >>> for 5 months.:\ It's a long relaxing holiday but only for the Bongs-Bongs & ze 'Busses . I think Spain get 60 Million tourists a year, or used to.

[kiwi grey]

Mandatory quarantine of 14 days at authorized centers for all incoming passenge
quite the opposite - Again - do this and the airlines and airports will remain almost completely inactive. It makes holiday travel and business travel impractical ... leaving what?
Short-term cheap package holiday travel: indeed gone
Business conferences and the like: as above, dead as the dodo
Long-term holiday travel - say 3 months plus: still viable, these folks will travel Business or Premium Economy if they're feeling cheap
Secondary school and tertiary study: no going 'home' in the short holiday breaks, otherwise still as doable as now
Trans-border moving house for a job change: just a longer gap between posts, very little change really

I'd guess that will leave about 25% to 30% of the 2019 travel still in the market and would be doom for the majority of LCCs and make life every difficult for airport companies / authorities, ATC providers and for Airbus & Boeing

Just my $0.02

[White Knight]

Spanish Gov. see external borders closed until October (in Spanish) (https://www.abc.es/economia/abci-gobierno-preve-cierre-fronteras-extienda-hasta-octubre-202004291812_noticia.html)

Put the Sangria on ice, >>> for 5 months.https://www.pprune.org/images/smilies/wibble.gif It's a long relaxing holiday but only for the Bongs-Bongs & ze 'Busses . I think Spain get 60 Million tourists a year, or used to.

That'll get the regions fired up! Andalucia is already wanting to start firing up the tourist industry! They risk a massive level of unemployment down there!

Besides, my primary residence is in Spain so would like to get back there sometime soon from Dubai! Could be a while...

[DaveReidUK]

The Sicilian regional government is offering to subsidise tourists who book holidays on the island before the end of the year, to the tune of half of their flight cost and one third of their hotel bill.

[advent]

That'll get the regions fired up! Andalucia is already wanting to start firing up the tourist industry! They risk a massive level of unemployment down there!

Besides, my primary residence is in Spain so would like to get back there sometime soon from Dubai! Could be a while...


My primary residence is also Spain.. It’s why I hold Spanish residency, pay my tax and social here and am a member of SEPLA.. Yep, I’m English, work and fly across many borders and have fully taken on board all the logistics and indeed politics to actually call this not only my ‘primary residence’, but also my home.

Sorry, that all sounds a bit arrogant for sure.. Difficult times I know, apologies..

I truly feel that somewhere down the path of aviation (pilot role) we have lost control of the most simple terms of engagement.

Be safe all of you and understand that these setbacks in what we as pilots would call our ‘career’ has happened quite a few times before. Of course it will return, in the meantime find yourself something very constructive for you and if you have, family.. For truly. That’s what is really important right now. Ensure you love and are loved somewhere. Yes, I could write now until the ducks come home, but I will not.

Be safe, find something to entertain your emotions and desires so you can return full of strength when the time arrives.

Ad.. I’m Elomium :)

[scr1]

Have people seen this

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/303081?fbclid=IwAR1aKgaDUEVf9C40VDCeS73NHmSHtsufDGO8wHQ6Cgh9 gJNFG8lAroPI0Kc

Might not do much good but we can only try

[Superpilot]

55k already. That's good going relatively speaking.

[squidie]

Have people seen this

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/303081?fbclid=IwAR1aKgaDUEVf9C40VDCeS73NHmSHtsufDGO8wHQ6Cgh9 gJNFG8lAroPI0Kc

Might not do much good but we can only tryThe government know what’s going on. Why people think a website with a few ticks is going to lead them down any different path.

[BEA 71]

The Sicilian regional government is offering to subsidise tourists who book holidays on the island before the end of the year, to the tune of half of their flight cost and one third of their hotel bill.
I am sure Turkey will start the most offensive campaign very soon, undercutting anybody else. They are very agressive when it comes to bumping out competitors.

[LTNman]

I am sure Turkey will start the most offensive campaign very soon, undercutting anybody else. They are very agressive when it comes to bumping out competitors.

Then return home to a 14 day quarantine which is on the cards.

[CaptainProp]

PR = Press Release . and reading the contents it is just that.

Press release yes, but this is not just some release to keep up interest in media. Like I said, it’s first results from a phase 3 trial and head of FDA commented:

“The Food and Drug Administration is moving at “lightning speed” to review data on Gilead Sciences Inc.’s experimental Covid-19 treatment remdesivir, Commissioner Stephen Hahn said, after encouraging results emerged from a key U.S. trial.“

Let’s wait for full data to be released and reviewed.

CP

[Pistonprop]

I'm still of the opinion that the older generation, who make up a significant number of bums on seats, will not be in too much of a hurry to board a flight anywhere, discounts or not! A rush to kick things off prematurely will discourage them even more.

[cashash]

I'm still of the opinion that the older generation, who make up a significant number of bums on seats, will not be in too much of a hurry to board a flight anywhere, discounts or not! A rush to kick things off prematurely will discourage them even more.

I think a bigger problem will be travel insurance - if Businesses and individuals cannot get cover for Covid19 for foreign travel then demand is going to be very muted.

[dohouch]

Short-term cheap package holiday travel: indeed gone
Business conferences and the like: as above, dead as the dodo
Long-term holiday travel - say 3 months plus: still viable, these folks will travel Business or Premium Economy if they're feeling cheap
Secondary school and tertiary study: no going 'home' in the short holiday breaks, otherwise still as doable as now
Trans-border moving house for a job change: just a longer gap between posts, very little change really

I'd guess that will leave about 25% to 30% of the 2019 travel still in the market and would be doom for the majority of LCCs and make life every difficult for airport companies / authorities, ATC providers and for Airbus & Boeing

Just my $0.02

I think this 25-30% is optimistic >:rolleyes:.
Maybe there is data as to who sits on planes, Worldwide daily passengers, % of trips that are one-way, duration of return trips etc?:*
Big guess approaching now>>>>----- 90% of trips are return flights of less than 2 weeks.

Maybe somebody can point us all in the direction of good solid numbers on who was using all those seats pre-Covid

[HZ123]

Such information does not give us much guidance on future trending? Even with figures surely for the immediate future into 2021 individuals and companies will have a totally different outlook on using air travel. From past experience we know that many Americans will not risk travel until such times as we are virus free. The mature (financially able) traveler will be hesitant and may not get suitable insurance, which leaves the LOCO masses that have embraced cheap air travel, many of whom latterly have graduated / upgraded to major established airlines. I fear that they will not be able to afford the air travel lifestyle for a number of years. To many people will lose their jobs and employers will pay less. As someone has already commented this year is a right of, let's hope that at least 25-30% figure is feasible.

[ZFT]

Maybe there's too much concern over travel insurance? The insurance industry just like aviation will want to do business, and will adapt to whatever the new model is.

[Mendi Matt]

Agreed. As one who lived through SARS I can offer my (non-expert) opinion:
Covid-19 is a nasty bug, especially so for those who receive a high viral load (e.g. hospital and old-age facility workers who have inadequate PPE), and those in high-risk demographic groups (the elderly, and adults with pre-existing respiratory conditions, or those of any age group who are immunity-compromised). These groups need to be protected...no question. But for the vast majority of the population, as long as sensible precautions are taken (wash your hands, keep your hands/fingers out of your mouth/nose, try not to touch anything that is touched by masses of strangers, e.g. lift buttons, hard surfaces inside buses and trains) then the risk really is minimal...The media are, in my opinion, stoking fear and hysteria and irrational behaviour.

[LGW Vulture]

For those interested about the effects of Covid19 on Cheltenham festival goers, then Irish racegoers are probably a pretty good yardstick I would think.

An estimated 10,000 Irish racegoers attended the Festival over the period. One had tested + ive by April 2nd, some three weeks after the festival.

Did that story make headlines does anyone know?

[DaveReidUK]

An estimated 10,000 Irish racegoers attended the Festival over the period. One had tested + ive by April 2nd, some three weeks after the festival.

Did that story make headlines does anyone know?

Given that it's a totally meaningless statistic, probably not.

Of those 10,000, how many tested negative? How many haven't been tested at all? How do we know who the 10,000 were?

[Tommy Gavin]

To Go back on thread:
Cargo ops will survive and especially the long haul wide body cargo operators as I guess long haul pax will be affected for some time to come reducing the overall cargo capacity.

There lies the crux: the longer the aviation market is down the better it is for the cargo operators. Once the airlines fly their usual schedules the cargo ops will be hit hard given the total market is most likely still below 2018/19 levels.

[Denti]

That seems questionable. Currently a lot of passenger airlines are retrofitting their widebodies to carry cargo instead. And the quick and easy solution is just removing the seats and carry a few extra crew as smoke warning system. In fact, from what i can see, freight rates are already sliding slowly back and that will increase, therefore the pressure on the cargo market will increase, considering that the large passenger airlines also do cargo business on large scales, i guess the integrated model will probably survive, although the pure cargo carriers have it easier in the short run, but probably more difficult in the long run.

[ATC Watcher]

Back to basics : What is flying currently : Cargo, military , some Sate flights and some business aviation . Add a few Domestic pax flights and some migrant workers charters . = between 5 to 10% of what was flying 4 months ago.
Nobody can maintain 100% of his infrastructure with those numbers for very long . We need the massive pax airliners back.
Domestic travel in large countries might come back early but international travel ?
For this you need reopening of the borders and lifting of travel bans/ quarantine etc.. and assurances that the virus is contained and you are not taking a high risk transiting through airports ,with questions like passing security , immigration queues, boarding gates, inside the aircraft , sharing toilets ,disembarkation buses, luggage collection , customs queues etc...
Insurance and medical assistance at the other end of the trip will also play a role in getting pax back in airplanes in large numbers at least in the beginning ...

How all this will be tackled and worked on will depend on how we will be in 6 months time . And it's all out of our hands :(

[Tommy Gavin]

That seems questionable. Currently a lot of passenger airlines are retrofitting their widebodies to carry cargo instead. And the quick and easy solution is just removing the seats and carry a few extra crew as smoke warning system. In fact, from what i can see, freight rates are already sliding slowly back and that will increase, therefore the pressure on the cargo market will increase, considering that the large passenger airlines also do cargo business on large scales, i guess the integrated model will probably survive, although the pure cargo carriers have it easier in the short run, but probably more difficult in the long run.

Fitting cargo in a pax aircraft is only short term and no real substitute for cargo aircraft as there is no cargo, no DG, and floor loading limits will be problematic. Its OK for cardboard boxes but you can't really build a pallet inside an aircraft. Rates are still climbing with the expected high in May.

Short haul express cargo seem to be more 'effected' if I believe the numbers from the integrators. It is more business as usual instead of the total mayhem that is general cargo right now. However I expect this to stay business as usual whereas I expect the general cargo to be affected once the long haul pax airlines are flying their normal schedules again. The question is if and when this is going to happen.

Bottom line: rubber dog **** is a good commodity at the moment.



​​

[CaptainProp]

CP, we do not even know whether someone who has fully recovered from this disease has any reasonable immunity to reinfection. We also do not know whether immunity to one strain (if that is even possible) gives immunity to another. Many teams are having a go at finding a useful vaccine because finding one is probably our best solution to this problem, but success is by no means a given.

“South Korea's CDC has found that the test results for the suspected relapsed patients were false positives, and warned the test it used was not able to distinguish between live traces of the virus and the harmless dead samples which remain after patients have recovered.”

“The CDC added that unlike other viruses, such as HIV and chickenpox - which can break into the nucleus of human cells and stay latent for years before reactivating - the coronavirus stays outside of the host cell's nucleus."This means it does not cause chronic infection or recurrence," explained Dr Oh Myoung-don, the head of the CDC committee, meaning it is unlikely for patients to relapse in this fashion.”

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-scientists-conclude-people-cannot-be-infected-twice-11981721

CP

[CaptainProp]

It is highly unlikely (albeit not impossible) that a vaccine will be developed this year, but vaccinating 70% of the developed world (why leave out the US?) is pure fantasy on any timescale, let alone less than a year.

As you’ve said, the big calls are being made by politicians who will simply never make any decisions Sir Humphrey would dub ‘courageous’. What we’re witnessing is the ultimate in big government expansionism and nanny-statism, roared on by a media apparatus, much of which would usually rail against the excesses of the state (Daily Mail, The Express etc.).

For those in the high risk category, self isolating is probably prudent, though it shouldn’t be mandatory. For the majority however, the extra alcohol and takeaways they’re consuming during this intervening period is more likely to be injurious to their health than novel coronavirus.

”Under the terms of the agreement, the companies plan to establish manufacturing suites at Lonza’s facilities in the United States and Switzerland for the manufacture of mRNA-1273 at both sites. Technology transfer is expected to begin in June 2020, and the companies intend to manufacture the first batches of mRNA-1273 at Lonza U.S. in July 2020. Over time, the parties intend to establish additional production suites across Lonza’s worldwide facilities, ultimately allowing for the manufacture of material equivalent to up to 1 billion doses of mRNA-1273 per year for use worldwide assuming the currently expected dose of 50 µg. ”

Thats 1bn doses of one vaccine from one manufacturer. There are 7 other companies working on COVID19 vaccine based on the same technology. Then 7 more developing vaccine based on a different tech. Nothing is impossible, you just have to throw enough money at it.

https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-and-lonza-announce-worldwide-strategic-collaboration

CP

[ATC Watcher]

Extracts of Lufhansa CEO Carsten Spohr speech to the LH AGM due 5 May :
in less that 65 days we are back where we were 65 years ago
we carry at the moment 3000 pax a day , where we used to carry 300.000 a day
700 of our 760 aircraft are grounded .
Freight is in high demand, we removed the seats of 4 A330 to carry freight and plan to modify more , we call them "Preighters"
Small intra european restart expected in fall 2020 on limited scale..
New normal not expected before 2023. by them we will be a smaller airline with 100 aircraft less and 10.000 staff less.

[bnt]

Hundreds of aircraft on the ground in Southern California:

fTocssiYt3s

[cashash]

Hundreds of aircraft on the ground in Southern California:




I wonder at what point it becomes financially unsustainable to maintain all these parked aircraft. If we are going to enter an 'L' shaped recession and the industry is going to contract by possibly 50% or more until there is a vaccine at some point scores of relatively new aircraft are not needed but there will be no market to sell them on. It costs quite a lot of money to service parked aircraft as well as the cost of the parking itself, so will it get to point when airlines find it cheaper to start wholesale scrapping of airframes?

Sad times..

[procede]

I wonder at what point it becomes financially unsustainable to maintain all these parked aircraft.
The good news is that we do not need the space they are occupying anytime soon either. If you long term park them, the costs are very low, but you need a full maintenance check before you can reuse them.

[Tommy Gavin]

Who would have thought that the Grand Old 747 would be the backbone of aviation in 2020?
​​​

[DaveReidUK]

How do you come to that conclusion ?

[Tommy Gavin]

Cargo.......

[DaveReidUK]

It's certainly true that 747 freighters have been busy lately, for example yesterday there were around 25% more flights by 747Fs than by, say, 777Fs.

But that's offset by pax 777s (obviously carrying belly cargo and many with some freight upstairs too), which operated around 20 times as many flights as the small number of pax 747s left.

So in terms of total lift, there's probably not much to choose between the respective contributions of the two types.

[ATC Watcher]

Well not for Lufhansa : it is retiring its 747-400s, decision on the 800s still pending and its current cargo is with 777F and MD11...plus now the converted 330s..

[cashash]

With the recent announcements of extending social distancing until we get a vaccine (which could take up to 2 years) and 14 day isolation on arrival into the country announced by France and possibly by the UK & others, is it possible to have a functioning passenger service for airlines for the foreseeable future?. The social distancing aspect means that no carrier can meet the seat factor requirements to be profitable and if you have to enter quarantine for 14 days how is that even practical for any business or leisure traveller except those leisure travellers on long stay vacations.

[JanetFlight]

EU European comissaire for transportation, Adina Valean said yesterday on an interview here for a main portuguese media that EU has simply gave up and put aside the idea of reduced seats and the only mandatory rule on a flight inside EU rules would be the use of masks... (maybe some strong MoL/Stelios influence, who knows)...in their opinions, reduced seats and capacity would lead companies into very bad economic situations. Sorry, link in portuguese but you cán use Google translate :
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.publico.pt/2020/05/03/sociedade/noticia/portugal-vai-seguir-regras-bruxelas-voos-mascaras-sim-lugares-vazios-nao-1914921/amp

[Pistonprop]

When life begins to return to normal (!) I'm left wondering about the retraining costs for hundreds of thousands FD crews and ATC controllers, not to mention scores of other related jobs.

[ATC Watcher]

Cannot tell you for everybody , but for ATC we can keep partially current on simulators,most large facilities have their own , and the traffic will not restart at the flip of a switch , it will be gradual and people will be able to re- validate fairly easily as traffic comes up again ( if it does) .
The more immediate danger I see for us controllers is the actual number of controllers left when it will restart. If ANSPs are getting rid of staff , some are already planing a 50% lay off, there will be an issue as all previous experience shows the vast majority of them do not come back in the profession.
And recruiting and retraining new controllers take years. If we get over the peak in the next 4-6 months , if may work for us , if it last more than 2 years as some are predicting , this will be a major issue.

[Tommy Gavin]

When life begins to return to normal (!) I'm left wondering about the retraining costs for hundreds of thousands FD crews and ATC controllers, not to mention scores of other related jobs.
3 landings in a simulator and your good to go (in addition to your LPC/OPC every 6 months. Don't really see an issue there

[cashash]

EU European comissaire for transportation, Adina Valean said yesterday on an interview here for a main portuguese media that EU has simply gave up and put aside the idea of reduced seats and the only mandatory rule on a flight inside EU rules would be the use of masks... (maybe some strong MoL/Stelios influence, who knows)...in their opinions, reduced seats and capacity would lead companies into very bad economic situations.


That makes no sense though. If social distancing is not required on an airplane as long as you wear a mask then why do we need to enforce it anywhere else?. We can remove all those bits of tape on the floor telling where to stand..

[ATC Watcher]

Tommy Gavin

After 2 years not flying ?

[Luna77]

cash-ash

Aer Lingus BHD - LHR had plenty of seats filled this morning.

Can't post the link however you can search for @KellyBonner on Twitter.

Aer Lingus responded to say they're reviewing their processes and procedures in light of the unexpectedly high loads on this route.

Comments from the public are interesting,

[kpd]

here is the pictures from the flight-
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-52539141

[Pistonprop]

3 landings in a simulator and your good to go

:eek: In that case I will delay resuming air travel a while longer ;)

[DaveReidUK]

Aer Lingus responded to say they're reviewing their processes and procedures in light of the unexpectedly high loads on this route.

How can an airline fail to know how many seats it has sold on a flight ?

[Tommy Gavin]

Pistonprop

Never fly with management pilots then ;)
Of course this is the very bare minimum. But as I do not see all the planes take to the air at the same time I really do not see many issues as long as you keep a 'core group' current in the mean time.
​​​​​​

[lederhosen]

Apart from the added comfort I think most people can see that leaving the middle seat free, when in the vast majority of cases people are seated inches behind and in front of you does not really solve the social distancing problem. Studies done after SARS showed that that at least two clear rows distancing was required to avoid infection. Clearly that is not going to be possible, so we need to find some other solution. The most likely scenario is a basket of measures, for example face masks, testing pre flight and the introduction of rules for acceptable behaviour and probably sanctions for non compliance. Add to this that a number of people will be disinclined to travel because of the risk and uncertainty then it is obvious that things are not going to be as they were before for some while yet.

[ATC Watcher]

French minister of Economy Bruno Lemaire announced this morning a ban of Domestic flights in France between city pairs that can be reached by train in less than 2,5 Hours.
Travel bans ( for non essential travel) and mandatory quarantine for outside Shengen Borders + UK in place to last until after Summer 2020.

[lear999wa]

This has no chance of passing EU scrutiny. Freedom of movement of people goods and services.

[lederhosen]

A link to an extraordinary video of what looks like a significant part of American Airline's fleet grounded in Pittsburgh with credit to Juan Brown (an AA B777 F/O who runs a YouTube channel under the ID "blancolirio").

[kpd]

here is link-

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tF1ZIPvFvok

[Flocks]

French minister of Economy Bruno Lemaire announced this morning a ban of Domestic flights in France between city pairs that can be reached by train in less than 2,5 Hours.
Travel bans ( for non essential travel) and mandatory quarantine for outside Shengen Borders + UK in place to last until after Summer 2020.

Not what was said ... the ban" of flight between city that can be reached by train in less than 2,5hours is part of the deal the government made with Air France with the 7 billion loan ... So other airlines will do what they want ... And it is when a fast train line is used and not only the 2h30 with other train ... So in fact it will be 6/7 city connected with Paris + air France can still do those flight but for connecting passenger only.

French government changed their mind about the quarantine and for all people coming from EU (so UK is included 😉) + Schengen area won t have to do a quarantine if traveling to France (can be found on Google)

Here a link but in French :
https://lepetitjournal.com/expat-pratique/retour-en-france/expatries-quarantaine-retour-france-279767

And in my opinion, lot of European countries will follow those kind of idea ... For example in Czech Republic, you need to have a negative covid test done in the last 4 days or you do quarantine.

It won't solve long haul travel but at least airline could resume flight in Schengen area.

​​​​​​Let s be honest, the sky is cloudy but nobody knows if it is going to turn CAVOK or heavy rain ! If you follow news like me, it change every 2days (French government literally said the total opposite with quarantine for every body 24hr before the update of now)

[lederhosen]

Thanks for that KPD! bit of finger trouble posting the link on my side. But they are spectacular and sobering images.

[kpd]

Thanks for that KPD! bit of finger trouble posting the link on my side. But they are spectacular and sobering images.

no problem - and the images certainly are.

[Samju]

Is it possible for the Aircraft manufacturers to modify the seating arrangement in AC to fit into social distancing norms, instead of leaving the middle seats empty. Like, completely removing the middle rows and creating separate aisle for each column so that there is less cross overs or touching between the pax. This will boost the confidence of travelling public who may otherwise avoid air travel

[GoldenGooseGuy]

To have 6 feet between passengers, you'd have to build space in both laterally (as you said) and longitudinally, so that means removing half the seats in the aircraft. They've modeled the revenue per flight with these kinds of arrangements and they are a money-losing endeavor. Airplanes are just too high cost of machines for carting around a bunch of empty space. Not only that, but the air re-circulation in many aircraft is more beneficial to spreading disease than it is preventing it, so that will have to be reconsidered.

[dead_pan]

Maybe it would be easier and simpler just to retrofit cargo planes with the occasional seat? :hmm:

[RoyHudd]

Surely the 6-feet/2-metre spacing cannot be maintained when pax need to visit the toilets, or wait for toilets. Also cabin crew will continually pass close to pax in aisle seats. I can see the spacing work after a fashion in 2-4-2 becoming 1-1-1, ditto for 2-3-2. But to achieve a practical yield, airfares would need to increase by up to 65%. And more than double, on single-aisle aircraft. Another solution will need to be found.

[GS-Alpha]

Is it possible for the Aircraft manufacturers to modify the seating arrangement in AC to fit into social distancing norms, instead of leaving the middle seats empty. Like, completely removing the middle rows and creating separate aisle for each column so that there is less cross overs or touching between the pax. This will boost the confidence of travelling public who may otherwise avoid air travel
They already do. They call it first class. Not many people can afford it though.

[ATC Watcher]

Although at the moment IATA is not recommending social distancing on board aircraft ( middle seat off) it is thinking about it : from their latest relaae :
Calls for social distancing measures on aircraft would fundamentally shift the economics of aviation by slashing the maximum load factor to 62%. That is well below the average industry breakeven load factor of 77%..With fewer seats to sell, unit costs would rise sharply. Compared to 2019, air fares would need to go up dramatically—between 43% and 54% depending on the region—just to break even.

But with current average load factors on international flights ( not domestic) in the 10-15% range they will have to do something more dramatic to get people back in aircraft ... masks, disinfectants and higher air recycling rates do not seem to be enough to have the desired effect..

[Samju]

Air fares of pre-covid levels will in any case see 50-100% increase due to cost of additional arrangements at the airport/ in flight. Persons will travel only if necessary or if they can afford as was the case before the boom happened in this century. But this means that 30-50 % of the current fleet may operate in domestic sectors saving some Pilot jobs albeit with reduced hours and pay. An optimistic view.

[ZFT]

Although at the moment IATA is not recommending social distancing on board aircraft ( middle seat off) it is thinking about it : from their latest relaae :


But with current average load factors on international flights ( not domestic) in the 10-15% range they will have to do something more dramatic to get people back in aircraft ... masks, disinfectants and higher air recycling rates do not seem to be enough to have the desired effect..

I would suggest that until various governments remove their individual travel restrictions and or health policies, there is very little than airlines can do to influence load factors on international flights.

[Samju]

Travel restrictions will be eased shortly. Solutions to problem of gainful utilisation of empty seating can also be found.Avoiding breathing of recirculated air can also be found through oxygen masks. The airlines have to work for building up the confidence of travelers instead of crying for help or pretending helplessness.This virus is going to stay with us and solution based approach should be adopted as we have to accept that travel is not going to be same as before for a long time.

[wiggy]

Avoiding breathing of recirculated air can also be found through oxygen masks. .

:confused:

Having spent my formative years flying around wearing a well fitting mask all the time I'd politely suggest from a psychological POV that would be a step too for many/most regular men or women off the streets.

There would also be some practical problems:, for example to avoid breathing recirculated air you couldn't use a regulator with an "airmix" setting that mixes cabin air with the bottled gas, so everything you breath would have to come out of the bottle/tank - given that have you given any thought to how much bottled air you'd need to carry, even for a short haul sector, for the passengers..the scuba divers amongst us will no doubt be able to give us a clue.

If your idea is that instead of bottled gas you re-plumb/reroute an element of the Bleed air/AC system to feed the masks then aside from the engineering issue and weight problems you end up back with the psychological issues of expecting Mrs Miggins, aged 80, or master Miggins, aged 3, being expected to mask up for the flight..

[wiggy]

Reference the French border closures..big press conference yesterday..unfortunately for air travel they continue..

France will keep its borders closed to all but essential travel until at least June 15th, the Interior Minister has announced.

https://www.thelocal.fr/20200507/breaking-no-non-essential-travel-to-france-until-at-least-june-15th

Contrary to some opinions expressed control over one's own borders is still allowed even within the EU....

[homonculus]

Travel restrictions will be eased shortly. Solutions to problem of gainful utilisation of empty seating can also be found

all the evidence is that border controls may increase and others remain until we have a vaccine. Do please tell us the source of your interesting observation. And who is going to make the portable oxygen systems for everyone to wear between the terminal and plugging into their seat system.....:mad:

[Ex Cargo Clown]

:confused:

Having spent my formative years flying around wearing a well fitting mask all the time I'd politely suggest from a psychological POV that would be a step too for many/most regular men or women off the streets.

There would also be some practical problems:, for example to avoid breathing recirculated air you couldn't use a regulator with an "airmix" setting that mixes cabin air with the bottled gas, so everything you breath would have to come out of the bottle/tank - given that have you given any thought to how much bottled air you'd need to carry, even for a short haul sector, for the passengers..the scuba divers amongst us will no doubt be able to give us a clue.

If your idea is that instead of bottled gas you re-plumb/reroute an element of the Bleed air/AC system to feed the masks then aside from the engineering issue and weight problems you end up back with the psychological issues of expecting Mrs Miggins, aged 80, or master Miggins, aged 3, being expected to mask up for the flight..

Not entirely sure advocating carrying undeclared DGR is a clever idea.

[ATC Watcher]

Opening borders is a prerequisite to see pax back on international flights , but it is not a guarantee that they will do so in great numbers.
The reopening of Business in Georgia (USA) last week end is showing that people are not really prepared to take risks .
from an Atlanta news outlet :
Georgia's Reopening Has Been 'A Disaster' For Some Retailers Desperate For Revenue “That was the worst-case scenario, especially with all the marketing we did,” Zelaya said. “The reopening weekend was a disaster. We had two customers all weekend."

source : https://www.bisnow.com

[Jet II]

Avoiding breathing of recirculated air can also be found through oxygen masks.


On a 12 hour flight? :confused:

All the various proposals to make aircraft 'safe' are simply uneconomic in the present aviation industry model. The best you can hope for is a vaccine or herd immunity - either of which will possibly take up to 2 years.

[timmermc]

Should the government and other agencies arrange everything in a democracy? You can also appeal to your citizenship to keep the necessary distance between others.

If it's too busy on that train and you feel you can't keep the social distance apart, get off and take the next less crowded train just like you would on a bus. These transport companies already provide extra trains and buses, only to allow you as a traveler to keep your distance.

In an airplane it is different you can not compare with the above, here are the airlines that must ensure that you can always keep social distance from a fellow passenger, when boarding and disembarking, but also during the flight.
This will take a lot of inspiration from the airlines, but I am sure that a solution can be found to the satisfaction of those who want to take the plane. The solution has to come, because it is now a matter of surviving for the airlines, they absolutely cannot turn their heads or cry as little babies at the ice cream shop.

It's just a new world and everyone will have to put in an extra effort for a while before it can return to normal.

[Smooth Airperator]

Despite the lockdown, we've settled at 5000 cases per day and 600 deaths per day for almost a month. Removing the lockdown now or at any point will result in a rapid daily rise. This thing is too damn contagious. Look at this and ask yourself, even with contact tracing and testing, without a lockdown, how on earth will the number of cases reduce to below 5000 per day? I just can't see it. A vaccine is 12-18 months away, until then, what? lockdown?

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/842x574/c19analysis090520_faffd850d34eb187f558d6001a81108228d47760.p ng

[guy_incognito]

Exactly. That was always the issue with entering lockdown without a credible exit plan beyond hoping for an effective vaccine and/ or treatment to be developed in an incredibly short timescale. Lockdown for the long term is simply not a feasible solution.

[Arcanum]

At the beginning of April they were testing 10K people a day. Now they are testing around 100K people a day. The number of cases being found now likely reflects the number of people being tested rather than a static number of cases in the country.

[Smooth Airperator]

That's a valid point but one I've not heard anyone from ourleadership mention.

[Jet II]

Can someone explain to me why ONLY the airline industry, according to the experts on this site, will have to enforce social distancong rules?

I am sitting on a train sharing a cabin with 4 complete strangers.
To get to the train station, I took a bus from the airport. On the bus, 3 or 4 people at least rubbed shoulders with me moving around. On the plane, I had people sitting within arms length distance of other passengers the entire flight.
To get to the plane, we were loaded onto a bus, standing room only. And there would have had to be 30-40 people o that bus.



I totally agree - if Social Distancing is required then it is as required on public transport as it is on an airplane. Which is why I dont understand some of the other rules that have been brought in in London. We have seen pavements widened by taking away one lane of traffic, they are talking about more roads blocked off for pedestrians, longer red light waits, more cycle lanes etc - all of these are going to increase congestion for cars at precisely the time when you want people to swap from public transport to private vehicles to allow for social distancing.

There doesn't seem to be an awful lot of joined up thinking.

[V737]

Hello, my aviation friends!

Times are hard for aviators, and so for me! My type rating with a European airline was stopped right in the middle of the simulator part in March and I don't know what will happen next.

That's why I share this video. It shows the airlines with the highest revenue in the world from 1995 - 2020. You can clearly see some huge decreases (for example during the crisis in 2008), but you know what? After the dip there was always a huge spike up!

So don't lose hope for the following months/years.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QxbpZ4tvOqc&lc=UgymdFBbSp-zCu5xAN14AaABAg

Airlines with the highest revenue 1995 - 2020 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QxbpZ4tvOqc&lc=UgymdFBbSp-zCu5xAN14AaABAg)

[Airbubba]

Boeing CEO predicts coronavirus pandemic will claim a major U.S. airline. He didn't name namesDawn Gilbertson (https://www.usatoday.com/staff/2647725001/dawn-gilbertson/)
USA TODAY

9:11 pm May 11, 2020

With anemic passenger counts (https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/airline-news/2020/05/01/united-seeing-zero-travel-demand-coranvirus/3064265001/) and no signs travel will rebound quickly (https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/airline-news/2020/04/22/coronavirus-air-travel-delta-ceo-says-recovery-could-take-three-years/3002301001/) from the coronavirus pandemic, airlines are fighting for their financial lives.

They're looking everywhere but the couch cushions to raise badly needed cash and the threat looms of major layoffs (https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/airline-news/2020/04/23/southwest-airlines-ceo-gary-kelly-flyers-needed-avoid-drastic-steps/3013385001/) this fall.

Boeing CEO David Calhoun thinks one major U.S. carrier won't survive.

Calhoun, who replaced the plane maker's longtime CEO in January (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2020/01/22/boeing-737-max-boeings-new-ceo-vows-woo-pilots-then-passengers/4544563002/) in the wake of the prolonged 737 Max crisis, made the prediction to NBC "Today" co-anchor Savannah Guthrie.

Guthrie, in an interview scheduled to air on the network Tuesday, asked Calhoun if "there might be a major U.S. carrier that just has to go out of business?''

"Yes, most likely,'' Calhoun said.

He didn't name names or define "major" airline in the 22-second snippet NBC shared ahead of the full interview.

Calhoun told Guthrie passenger traffic levels will not be back to 100% by this fall, when payroll protection for employees under the CARES Act runs out. Airlines have said they will have to cut payroll costs to survive if business doesn't rebound by then.

"They won't even be back to 25 (%),'' Calhoun said. "Maybe by the end of the year we approach 50 (%). So there will definitely be adjustments that have to be made on the part of the airlines.''


https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/780x801/calhoun_e6c7e2d0c2e4751bf3f285dc66301cfc67f076ca.jpg

[ATC Watcher]

did you watch it ? anything interesting ? in an interview to Richard quest in CNN Al Baker on Monday , CEO from Qatar declared it will take at least 3 years for Qatar airways to rebound How to weather the storm is the critical thing for any airline today .

[ATC Watcher]

Excellent new editorial from IFALPA on the future post Covid-19 :
https://www.ifalpa.org/media/3536/social-sustainability-11-may-2020.pdf

[Go4PoweredDecent]

That’s one of the most eloquent articles I’ve read in recent years regarding our industry. It need to be forwarded to law makers in all areas to make it happen.

[Jet II]

Excellent new editorial from IFALPA on the future post Covid-19 :
https://www.ifalpa.org/media/3536/social-sustainability-11-may-2020.pdf

So basically a return to pre-deregulation and a lot less pilot jobs.

[Airbubba]

did you watch it ? anything interesting ? in an interview to Richard quest in CNN Al Baker on Monday , CEO from Qatar declared it will take at least 3 years for Qatar airways to rebound How to weather the storm is the critical thing for any airline today .

Not a whole lot more than the pull quote from a perhaps obvious question. As always, the sound bites that air in the promo are often chosen for shock value to promote viewer ratings.

The follow-up article to the airing of the interview is below. In the lede of the video in the article link the announcer proudly boasts that the prediction in Ms. Guthrie's inverview of Mr. Calhoun sent shockwaves through Wall Street and airline offices.

Coronavirus pandemic could force a major U.S. airline out of business, says Boeing CEO"Something will happen when September comes around. Traffic levels will not be back to 100 percent. They won't even be back to 25 percent. So there will definitely be adjustments that have to be made on the part of the airlines," David Calhoun said.

May 12, 2020, 7:53 AM EDT

By Lucy Bayly

The airline industry is having an "apocalyptic" moment that could force a major U.S. carrier out of business, said David Calhoun, president and CEO of Boeing, in an interview with Savannah Guthrie on NBC's "TODAY" show that aired on Tuesday morning.

"The threat to the airline industry is grave. There's no question about it. And apocalyptic does actually accurately describe the moment," Calhoun said of the impact of the coronavirus.

The airline industry raked in record profits for a decade, due to lower jet fuel prices and consolidation through a series of mergers. That ended with the coronavirus pandemic, which has devastated the industry and has led to a 95 percent drop in air travel demand. American Airlines, United, Southwest and Delta all reported huge quarterly losses, their first in years. Airline executives have said the pandemic is the industry’s worst crisis, and have compared its impact to the events of September 11.

Despite billions of dollars in emergency funding as part of the government's CARES Act, (https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/airlines-treasury-reach-agreement-over-multibillion-dollar-relief-n1183921)the future for the industry remains uncertain, with many airline executives forecasting traffic will not return to prior levels for three to five years, leading to questions about the survival of some major carriers.

"I don't want to get too predictive on that subject. But yes, most likely," Calhoun said when asked if he thought a major U.S. carrier would have to go out of business.

"Something will happen when September comes around. Traffic levels will not be back to 100 percent. They won't even be back to 25 percent. So there will definitely be adjustments that have to be made on the part of the airlines," Calhoun said.

The air travel experience will be very different, he acknowledged. While he recommended that regulators require face masks, he said the interior of a plane's cabin was nonetheless "designed to prevent transmission of exactly this kind of airborne carrier."

"The cabin itself replaces its air every two to three minutes," he said. "By the time you layer those protections, and you consider the responsible actions of the public themselves, I believe you do gradually get back to the same level of confidence that we've had before."

Calhoun told the "TODAY" show he does not share the same view on the future of airlines as does billionaire investor Warren Buffet, who recently sold his entire $4 billion stake in U.S. airlines. Buffett said at the time he did not think people would fly as many passenger miles as they did last year.

“The world has changed for the airlines," Buffett said earlier this month at the annual shareholder meeting (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/02/warren-buffett-says-berkshire-sold-its-entire-position-in-airlines-because-of-the-coronavirus.html) for his investment firm, Berkshire Hathaway. "I don’t know if Americans have now changed their habits or will change their habits because of the extended period.”

"I don't happen to share the view," Calhoun told Guthrie. "I share the near-term turmoil. Near-term for me doesn't mean a few months. I believe it's three full years before we return to the traffic levels that we had just in 2019, and then probably another two before we begin to return to the growth rates that we used to have. And I'm hopeful that somewhere between here and there, there's a vaccine, and that the moment of high anxiety begins to really subside. But I still believe in the future of the industry."

Guthrie also questioned Calhoun about the future of Boeing itself. The company's troubled 737 Max jet fleet remains grounded worldwide, after two crashes led to hundreds of fatalities. (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/boeing-s-737-max-jets-now-grounded-canada-well-europe-n982811)

"In remembrance of the two accidents, which were as real as can be, our heartfelt sorrows to everybody who was touched by those accidents," Calhoun said.

"We made a bad assumption, with respect to the design envelope for that airplane, at that moment in time, under that condition. Our assumption about how a pilot would react in a very tense, difficult moment was wrong. Simple as that. But I do believe that has been fixed. I also believe in the culture at Boeing. I believe — actually, all of our employees believe — deeply in safety. And have we taken a magnifying glass to everything we do, everything, so that we don't ever allow for something like that to happen in the future."

"I am confident in the Max," Calhoun said. "The certification work, the FAA's work, has been as thorough as anything I've ever seen. We've worked every scenario we can possibly work into the testing programs. And it does exceedingly well."

Calhoun also spoke proudly of how "magical" it was for Boeing to be helping out during the pandemic, delivering front-line emergency supplies.

"The pilots who fly these airplanes around the world, to deliver these supplies, it's our front line helping the health care front line," Calhoun said. "It's pretty magical when it happens, and it is wildly motivating for me, of course, but mostly for our people. And they need that kind of motivation."


https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/coronavirus-pandemic-could-force-major-u-s-airline-out-business-n1205036

[ORAC]

Friend who is owed money by Thai Airways just received an email reputedly from the Thai High Court stating they have filed for bankruptcy.

Nothing on the news, anyone else received the email or can confirm, or is this part of the restructuring to wipe its debts with creditors?

I know the Thai government said they would save them and allow them to restructure in mid-May, with the hearings due to start in August, and has started applying to the courts around the world to protect their assets from seizure.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/thai-airways-rescue/thai-airways-asks-german-swiss-courts-for-asset-protection-idUKL4N2DM2AE

https://thethaiger.com/hot-news/transport/thai-airways-takes-action-to-protect-its-planes-from-seizure

[Flying Clog]

Yes, got the email too. Presumably because I'm a Thai frequent flyer/miles holder. They're bankrupt basically, that's the gist. Absolutely no surprise there.

[LapSap]

Yes, got the email too. Presumably because I'm a Thai frequent flyer/miles holder. They're bankrupt basically, that's the gist. Absolutely no surprise there.

Also got the FF email warning this was coming. Then this today:

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/554x1200/29a05ef7_8388_4403_9ccf_31e78163bd62_2690e976b678a48c5c2a79e 82d77e0bec652e761.jpeg
https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/920x2000/8ea2516f_ec79_4659_9c1d_d47b121e6a6f_17839038c1c44c3e1f2cba8 ef3da286cf0ce1ce7.png
Looks similar to Chapter 11 protection??

[Flying Clog]

For sure. Thai Airways is a basket case. But we've all known that for years. Whether they'll survive this crisis in any way, shape, or form is anyone's guess. Probably not for the best if they do, just for national pride's sake maybe..

[ZFT]

Friend who is owed money by Thai Airways just received an email reputedly from the Thai High Court stating they have filed for bankruptcy.

Nothing on the news, anyone else received the email or can confirm, or is this part of the restructuring to wipe its debts with creditors?

I know the Thai government said they would save them and allow them to restructure in mid-May, with the hearings due to start in August, and has started applying to the courts around the world to protect their assets from seizure.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/thai-airways-rescue/thai-airways-asks-german-swiss-courts-for-asset-protection-idUKL4N2DM2AE

https://thethaiger.com/hot-news/transport/thai-airways-takes-action-to-protect-its-planes-from-seizure

Yes. Also got the email

What is unbelievable is today TG announced all staff would be safe for the next year whilst they 'rehabilitate' the airline.

Seems they are still content to bleed cash whilst holding onto everyone's money.

No attempt to cut costs at all and just on going delays to any form of long overdue change.

[ATC Watcher]

I started this thread exactly 6 months ago, so time to reflect on it :
Most of us are still there , not everyone is at work , but not many of us have been fired or furloughed yet . Only very few , mostly small ,airlines have collapsed as a result of the crisis, mainly due to vast state aid programs . Boeing and Airbus are still there and still manufacturing aircraft , albeit at a reduced rate..
Now where are we 6 months later? : Traffic worldwide is at 45% of 2019 levels, international and long haul is down 70--80% . Load factors are in the 45-50% and States travel restrictions are growing . Today everybody seem to agree that the crisis will last until 2024 at best.
The forecast is not very good for what is likely to happen in the meantime : Existing airlines, especially the legacy ones will become smaller , some even much smaller , a few may collapse, and many airports will have to cease operations . This winter will be hard for everyone . So the question is rather now : who will survive the next 6 months ?

[Jetscream 32]

This winter will be hard for everyone . So the question is rather now : who will survive the next 6 months ?

I think its more like - next 24+ months will be hard for everyone - I just cant see the liquidity being available to prop up airlines for an unknown traveller mindset - coupled with business world almost universally accepting that zoom/teams is an acceptable way forward for most organisations for most tasks, there will however always be exceptions, on the plus side holidays and escaping entrapment however is something that will always survive...

[PilotLZ]

Looks like 6 months is nothing on the grant scheme of things. More interesting who will still be here in 60 months. Even when recovery of previous traffic levels occurs, that still doesn't equal an all-clear. There will inevitably be someone who will succumb to their elevated ambitions to make use of the situation, eventually releasing all their ground to those who adopt a somewhat more conservative, but also more sustainable approach short-term. Think Small Planet back in the day. Great overall market, sudden availability of aircraft from Air Berlin, they tried to make use of the opportunity and choked on it within less than a year.

[Fostex]

Looks like 6 months is nothing on the grant scheme of things. More interesting who will still be here in 60 months.

Airline liquidity isn't measured at a granularity of 60 months, it is 6-12 months. Many airlines will hit cash-flow issues this winter if there is no ski-season. May will not survive into 2021 without government aid.

[Jetscream 32]

The Highlands of the UK has never looked so appealing for skiing as it does now.... :)