Ukrainian Aircraft down in Iran

[gearlever]

https://twitter.com/Roman_012/status/1215335999997448195?s=20
WOW...
Damn, that looks very clear to me:ooh:

[PuraVidaTransport]

Last doubt of what? That the aircraft suffered an explosion in flight?
There is clearly a missile going upward, left to right then a detonation and we see the aircraft on fire falling right to left. If the reports coming out in US publications now are true, that may have been the second missile launched and why the man was filming, having seen/heard the first missile detonate.
Edit to add: Obviously with the caveat this is an authentic video.

[andrasz]

Nonsense is it? You must have contacts very high up in the Iranian regime. The BBC’s Middle East Security correspondent Frank Gardner has just said multiple sources are claiming an accidental ‘anti-aircraft missile’ launch struck one of the plane’s engines. We will of course have to wait and see, because wisely I’m not going to claim certainty about any aspect of this tragic crash resulting in such loss of life. Nothing more, nothing less.

The media frenzy is getting out of control so it is impossible at the moment to assess the accuracy of any report. However IF it does turn out to be an accidential missile launch, then the degree of incompetence on all levels of the Iranian government is much higher than I ever imagined. Again IF, then surely someone should have realised by dawn that one of their AA missiles is missing...

[Auxtank]

There is clearly a missile going upward, left to right then a detonation and we see the aircraft on fire falling right to left. If the reports coming out in US publications now are true, that may have been the second missile launched and why the man was filming, having seen/heard the first missile detonate.
Edit to add: Obviously with the caveat this is an authentic video.

Are we watching the same video? I see the left to right trail left by something but I don't see the aircraft on fire falling right to left.

[LiamNCL]

Moment of impact just out of shot

Security camera captures final moments

[Bound2Ground]

It appears the fire is no longer visible from about the 7 second mark. Might this be the plane turning right and descending behind the mountain range?
If the video is fake then someone did a fantastic job what with the CMOS rolling shutter effect, color change of explosion, etc, etc.

[Airbubba]

But the open access for local media to the crash site (actually more than would have been allowed in western countries) on the other hand is an indication to the contrary, that the Iranian government has nothing to hide there.
https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/493x164/bbcbc_7135f395b078ac85cdb8dced9f7d96b12e7a32df.png
Now that they got caught, maybe the media access policy in Iran is about to change.

[paperHanger]

Pause the video and use the slider, you can clearly see to missile path all the way to the point of impact ...

[Bound2Ground]

Are we watching the same video? I see the left to right trail left by something but I don't see the aircraft on fire falling right to left.

I'm guessing the line of sight is obscured by the mountains on the right of the Parot flight path as the plane attempted a return.

[AlexGG]

Quite a lucky catch! I mean, I don‘t usually just hang out in a cold recording dark sky and some buildings for no apparent reason.

Maybe there was something unusual going on already. News citing US military sources say there were two SAM launches. Maybe it was the second missile that hit.

[ErwinS]

Quite some newbies here, troll accounts??

It seems that some are blind for all the evidence, she was shot down, period.
- Iran was in a high state of alert
- No way an engine failure on a 737 will result in a crash like this
- All data stopped instantly, not the case when a engine fails.
- She flew straight to a SAM site
- Missile head found
- Damage on aircraft consistent with an external explosion
- And more videos emerging of the accident happening, the latest is quite obvious.
- Tehran is a big city so why would anyone doubt there where people outside is beyond me...
- Buldozing the crash site... something to hide??

Think all what you think, this was a shoot down.

[the_stranger]

Quite a lucky catch! I mean, I don‘t usually just hang out in a cold recording dark sky and some buildings for no apparent reason.
You don't know the reason why he started filming. Maybe he heard the launch? Or this is the second impact of the rumoured two missies?
And after all, somebody also filmed the first plane into the WTC by accident, with the huge amount of cameraphones around, chances are better and better something interesting is filmed, if not by pure chance.

[RTM Boy]

The media frenzy is getting out of control so it is impossible at the moment to assess the accuracy of any report. However IF it does turn out to be an accidential missile launch, then the degree of incompetence on all levels of the Iranian government is much higher than I ever imagined. Again IF, then surely someone should have realised by dawn that one of their AA missiles is missing...

Or quickly removed the launch equipment, keep schtum, deny everything, like MH17. It would not be the first time such a mistake has happened - not least Iran Air 655 which showed incompetence in a supposedly sophisticated US naval force. Why would you be surprised that Iranian government forces that you strangely appear to hold in such high regard would or could be incompetent?

Has the 737 Max debacle shown Boeing to be competent? Discuss.

People make mistakes. Bad mistakes. The consequences can be horrific.

[dragon6172]

Are we watching the same video? I see the left to right trail left by something but I don't see the aircraft on fire falling right to left.
I would guess that the aircraft didn't burst into flames immediately. The other videos of the aircraft on fire just before impact are fairly low to the ground. From the point of loss of ADS-B data to crash site is 2-3 minutes of flight time. This video only shows 15 or so seconds post alleged intercept.

Also, look at the following coordinates: 35.489244, 50.907144

Camera angle about north-northwest from there.

[andrasz]

Or quickly removed the launch equipment, keep schtum, deny everything, like MH17. It would not be the first time such a mistake has happened - not least Iran Air 655 which showed incompetence in a supposedly sophisticated US naval force. Why would you be surprised that Iranian government forces that you strangely appear to hold in such high regard would or could be incompetent?
People make mistakes. Bad mistakes. The consequences can be horrific.

I think you totally misunderstood my comment. The thought that some trigger happy Iranian AA unit fired the missile out of sheer incompetence is entirely plausible. I'm simply saying that should that have happened, the Iranian authorities would have acted with much less openness. From the reporting of the accident so far, I don't see any attempt at a cover-up. In Iran ANY information that is released to the public is carefully scrutinized, and anything that would put the regime in a bad light is supressed. What I do find inconcievable is that if indeed this was a FF incident, the news of it would not have reached the highest levels even before the rest of the world was aware of anything.

[Pilot DAR]

Smoking gun, end of conversation.
................
Come on, keep an open mind...this is an investigation.

We're pilots right? We observe what we see for what it is at the time, apply the procedure, then observe for more information, and reassess.... right?

Sure, discuss here, and even speculate, but, do you want to be the pilot here who announces that their mind is closed to more information about the event? Pilots with closed minds miss new and possibly important information (and sometimes end up looking foolish).

[Airbubba]

Possibly linked earlier but I'll attach it here for reference. The Iran Civil Aviation Organization Preliminary Accident Report in Farsi and English.

[Lonewolf_50]

A few extracts from the link that Airbubba has provided (https://www.pprune.org/attachments/rumours-news/5887d1578598795-ukrainian-aircraft-down-iran-iran-cao-ps752-initial-report.pdf):
The crash site track indicates that the aircraft was first approaching west to exit the airport boundary, but turned right following a technical problem, and had a track showing returning to the airport.
This is a prelim report, "technical problem" details to follow, be amplified, or perhaps be gone once CVR/FDR analysis completed.
The gathered evidence at the crash site shows that impact point with the ground was a recreational park and after the initial impact, other impacts were also observed, wrecking the aircraft fuselage spread across all the track at the accident site. Parts of this aircraft came down at multiple locations.
The rescue and search operation team found the Aircraft black boxes, including the Flight Data Recorder (FDR) and Cockpit Voice Recorder (CVR), and is currently held by the investigation team of Iran AAIB. Both devices have been damaged as a result of the accident and catching fire. The memory parts of both recorders are in good conditions, though the physical damage to their main components is noticeable. Good news.
A special group was formed and any laser attacks and electromagnetic (radioactive) threats and unlawful actions have been rejected by conducting the relevant sampling and analysis up to now.
A revision may be pending ... but they do rule out a l@ser attack so far ...
An initial notification was sent to Ukraine as the State of registry and the operator, the NTSB as the State of design and manufacture, Sweden (SHK), Canada (TSB), and Afghanistan CAO as the States whose citizens suffered fatal injuries in this accident.
Ukraine requested to participate in the accident investigation process, and introduced a go-team to identify and transfer their nationals' corpses, and perform other responsibilities resting with the country registering and operating the aircraft in such conditions, which has already arrived in Iran.
In accordance with the Annex 13, the investigation team would like to invite all the States involved in the accident to participate in the investigation process.
I have a recommendation for fellow PPRuNers:
please do not impugn the motives of the investigation team nor the Investigating body.
I ask this due to remembering some vitriol directed at BEA in some threads as we all discussed the AF 447 accident and beat the horses dead ...

[Pilot DAR]

The link to the Canadian Prime Minister's news conference should be here:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/champagne-iran-plane-crash-1.5420398

It is live at 15:00 eastern time now. Prime Minister Trudeau is being pretty definite about it, though repeats the need for a full and credible investigation. The reporters are asking good questions...

[lapp]

I'm simply saying that should that have happened, the Iranian authorities would have acted with much less openness. From the reporting of the accident so far, I don't see any attempt at a cover-up. In Iran ANY information that is released to the public is carefully scrutinized, and anything that would put the regime in a bad light is supressed. What I do find inconcievable is that if indeed this was a FF incident, the news of it would not have reached the highest levels even before the rest of the world was aware of anything.

They can't cover up evidence on the site, but they can keep denying a shoot down, even forever. They can try to influence the investigation or blocking it at some point sending all foreigners home and disagreeing on finding. Their CAA Chief is fully playing this part already, but isn't said that someone else won't be able to let the truth come out.There is too many smartphones around to control them all. Some Iranians are and will continue sharing what they have photographed or filmed. Use of VPN is common to work around censorship. Iran Gov.t. can suppress and say anything they want within the country, but not in the rest of the world. They cannot silence the families of the 76 non-Iranian victims, neither their respective Gov.ts, or even the airline itself. Iran Gov.t is not stupid, by looking at how the played the "no effects revenge", I think it's quite possible that at some point they might cave in and admit, trial and execute some unlucky but factually responsible individual. I think that would be their "best" way to handle the aftermath of this tragedy.

[Mozella]

Pause the video and use the slider, you can clearly see to missile path all the way to the point of impact ...
There is no way for me to verify the video; i.e. who knows when and where it was taken.
However, as someone with 153 combat missions over North Viet Nam back in the day, I've seen countless SA-2 missiles launched and more than a few of them hitting aircraft. From what I see when using the slider to slow down the video, I'd bet my house that it shows a SAM of some kind killing an aircraft of some kind. It looks just like the SAMs I saw in Viet Nam. Could it be the Ukrainian aircraft? I can't say.

Could it be an accidental shoot down by the Iranian Military? After living in Iran for a number of years when I was serving as a flight instructor in their F-14 program I observed a good number of absolutely astounding failures of common sense by my IIAF colleagues. I wouldn't be surprised at all if this was an accidental missile launched committed by a member of the Iranian military.......... not surprised at all.

[Erwin Schroedinger]

Might be useful to some. I created these for my own investigation, then decided I might as well share them. Of course, a significant assumption is that the source video, posted somewhere earlier in this thread, is genuine.

For pretty accurate maintenance of direction of viewing, more or less the same section of a building has been maintained in the bottom left corner. The scale is identical in all pictures. The path of the moving light (missile/projectile/con trick/whatever) is therefore defined by the sequence of pictures, moving from from top to bottom. The pictures are not, however, accurately equally spaced in time (although they aren't far from it).

My own conclusion, FWIW, is that the moving light is a missile/projectile/con trick/whatever. Take your pick or invent your own.

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/800x1130/a_47f591f33c74a5ab3d739da99611dc0d4b83023d.jpeg
https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/800x1130/b_2e409631cc148293e9caedaaca2058d4ae03b0f9.jpeg
https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/800x1130/c_048f7822375d45d1354ec89a1c09895568662a2c.jpeg
https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/800x1130/d_02ebf0c8676690c2bc1b7ec123de57ec9f89ce7e.jpeg
https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/800x1130/e_fffd91063d7fbf3e57c5b35af5aae5292ca06b8c.jpeg

[Lord Farringdon]

Like everyone else I am Just wondering how this set of tragic circumstances came about (if true about the missile). Was the Ukrainian 737 the first flight out of Tehran? If not then what was the flight in front and how many minutes ahead was it? Were there many flights that departed ahead of the Ukrainian flight and did they depart on a similar pattern? If there had been a busy departure schedule ahead of this flight I wonder what made the weapons controller single this particular flight out? If indeed this was the cause of this tragedy.

The Iranians had just fired a bunch of ballistic missiles at US air bases in Iraq. What would you as an Iranian commander in the field think will happen next? Nothing? A strongly worded phone call to the Ayatollah from Trump? Or a US air strike on the airfield you are protecting? Poor communication would play a part along with poor training, poor leadership, tension and expectation if this accident ultimately proves to be a shoot down miscalculation.

[lapp]

There is no way for me to verify the video; i.e. who knows when and where it was taken.

Surely not an official verification but on the Internet if a given picture or video was posted before, someone will be able to show where and when.
So, if can't be shown that the video was already "known", either it has been quickly and skillfully fabricated, or someone had the good luck of possessing an unrelated but very fitting video to share at the very best time. Both things are possible, but how much likely?
Then regarding the question about why someone would have been out in the cold early hours with a smartphone ready to film, I think it's very possible that many in Tehran got to know of the Iranian launches, or even if they didn't, they went out to document any possible development, even if that could have been the last thing they did in their life. And they filmed, survived, and shared, we should be thankful.

[Airbubba]

Iran CAO chief's position on the new information about the shoot-down from a CNN interview:

The head of Iran's Civil Aviation Authority is questioning the US allegation.Speaking to CNN, Ali Abedzadeh said, "if a rocket or missile hits a plane, it will free fall."

Abedzadeh asked, "How can a plane be hit by rocket or missile" and then the pilot "try to turn back to the airport?"

He also told CNN the plane's black boxes are damaged and Iran may need help decoding them.

"Generally speaking, Iran has the potential and know-how to decode the black box. Everybody knows that," Abedzadeh said.

However, he also added that, "the black box of this very Ukrainian Boeing 737 is damaged. Ukrainian Aviation experts arrived here in Tehran today. We had a session with them. From tomorrow they will start decoding the data."

"If the available equipment is not enough to get the content" Iran will outsource the boxes to "the experts from France or Canada," Abedzadeh said.


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51055219

[RTM Boy]

I think you totally misunderstood my comment. The thought that some trigger happy Iranian AA unit fired the missile out of sheer incompetence is entirely plausible. I'm simply saying that should that have happened, the Iranian authorities would have acted with much less openness. From the reporting of the accident so far, I don't see any attempt at a cover-up. In Iran ANY information that is released to the public is carefully scrutinized, and anything that would put the regime in a bad light is supressed. What I do find inconcievable is that if indeed this was a FF incident, the news of it would not have reached the highest levels even before the rest of the world was aware of anything.

Perhaps the authorities didn’t know. If someone messed up, they might be reluctant to advertise the fact to whoever their superiors are for fear of whatever terrible punishment the regime might administer, and might simply have got out of there very quickly. It did happen very early in the morning. The regime might not have controlled any info because they didn’t know there was a need to.

Both Canadian and Ukrainian officials are now saying they believe the plane was downed by a missile.

[tdracer]

As a certain POTUS learned back in the 1970s, it's not always the act that dooms you, it's the coverup.
If it indeed was an accidental or inadvertent shootdown, Iran would be well served to come clean as soon as they can verify what happened, apologize (along the obligatory effort to shift the blame to 'The Great Satan'), and pay out some reparations. Because the truth will come out - too much evidence is out there - and denying it just makes you look worse.

[unmanned_droid]

The Iranians had just fired a bunch of ballistic missiles at US air bases in Iraq. What would you as an Iranian commander in the field think will happen next? Nothing? A strongly worded phone call to the Ayatollah from Trump? Or a US air strike on the airfield you are protecting? Poor communication would play a part along with poor training, poor leadership, tension and expectation if this accident ultimately proves to be a shoot down miscalculation.

Especially as this aircraft was apparently about an hour behind schedule. Perhaps there weren't supposed to be any aircraft operating from the airport at that time (I guess someone here would know?) - the SAM unit wouldn't necessarily be tied in to the civil ATC or monitoring their freqs, let alone be actively talking to them on the 'phone or radio.

[PaxBritannica]

New York Times showing the video and claiming they've verified it:Video verified by The Times appears to show a missile hitting a plane near Tehran airport around the time and place a Ukrainian jet crashed. (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/2zldsp6fp1OTYzQTmUf76w~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRf-hTTP0TaaHR0cDovL3d3dy5ueXRpbWVzLmNvbS8yMDIwLzAxLzA5L3ZpZGVvL 2lyYW4tcGxhbmUtbWlzc2lsZS5odG1sP2VtYz1lZGl0X25hXzIwMjAwMTA5J nJlZj1oZWFkbGluZSZubD1icmVha2luZy1uZXdzP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTYwJ mluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTAmc2VnbWVudF9pZD0yMDE4OSZ1c2VyX2lkPThhYTkwN DkyOTcxZDI0NWJmNDc0MTRjNGY5NWU1YjMwJnJlZ2lfaWQ9Njg5ODA2MjJXA 255dEIKACPTjxdeYpALClISY3BhdmVsZXlAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA)Afte r the apparent missile strike, they interview a local resident who says he heard the explosion, thought the US was attacking, and rushed to his cellar/bunker. So it seems people in Tehran were very much on edge, expecting an American reprisal.

[unworry]

Bellingcat are currently geolocating the latest video and have stated the NYTimes have obtained a high resolution version of the video.

It seems legit.


From their twitter thread:
https://twitter.com/bellingcat/status/1215352457972404226


We are analyzing this new video supposedly showing a mid-air explosion. By our initial estimation, the video shows an apartment block in western Parand (35.489414, 50.906917), facing northeast. This perspective is directed approximately towards the known trajectory of #PS752.

and heres a version of the latest telegram video without watermarks

https://twitter.com/i/status/1215374216838746118

[Fly.Buy]

The Iranians had just fired a bunch of ballistic missiles at US air bases in Iraq. What would you as an Iranian commander in the field think will happen next? Nothing? A strongly worded phone call to the Ayatollah from Trump? Or a US air strike on the airfield you are protecting? Poor communication would play a part along with poor training, poor leadership, tension and expectation if this accident ultimately proves to be a shoot down miscalculation.

i fully understand the circumstances and except your point, however the point I am trying to make is that if the Ukrainian flight was one of a line of aircraft at regular intervals taking off from an international airport on a well defined departure route then why was it singled out? Surely the weapons controller would have noted the regular flow of aircraft departing from this airport especially if any aircraft had already taken off ahead of this flight.

[WHBM]

Especially as this aircraft was apparently about an hour behind schedule. Perhaps there weren't supposed to be any aircraft operating from the airport at that time (I guess someone here would know?) - the SAM unit wouldn't necessarily be tied in to the civil ATC or monitoring their freqs, let alone be actively talking to them on the 'phone or radio.
There were 9 scheduled jet departures 0400-0459, 3 0500-0559 (including the Ukrainian) and 4 0600-0659. It seems operating an hour or more late is also pretty standard there.

[Lonewolf_50]

Iran CAO chief's position on the new information about the shoot-down from a CNN interview:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51055219 I will hazard a guess that Baghdad Bob got a new job. (yes, that is a joke ... he was an Iraqi)
Ali Abedzadeh said, "if a rocket or missile hits a plane, it will free fall."
Unless it doesn't fall apart in a milisecond.
Abedzadeh asked, "How can a plane be hit by rocket or missile" and then the pilot "try to turn back to the airport?"
If there are pilots on board and some control authority is present, that's how.
For a fellow who is the minister for the CAO, he seems to know very little about flying.
However, he also added that, "the black box of this very Ukrainian Boeing 737 is damaged.
Ukrainian Aviation experts arrived here in Tehran today. We had a session with them. From tomorrow they will start decoding the data."
"If the available equipment is not enough to get the content" Iran will outsource the boxes to "the experts from France or Canada," Abedzadeh said.
Ended on a positive note

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51055219

[RCyyz]

The link to the Canadian Prime Minister's news conference ... is live at 15:00 eastern time now. Prime Minister Trudeau is being pretty definite about it, though repeats the need for a full and credible investigation. The reporters are asking good questions...

Here's quote from Prime Minister Trudeau as reported by the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation:

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says intelligence now indicates the Ukrainian passenger aircraft that crashed outside of Tehran on Wednesday, killing everyone on board — including 138 people destined for Canada — was shot down by an Iranian missile.

"We have intelligence from multiple sources, including our allies and our own intelligence. The evidence indicates that the plane was shot down by an Iranian surface-to-air missile," he said during a news conference in Ottawa, adding that it might have been an unintentional act.

[TEEEJ]

Bellingcat are currently geolocating the latest video and have stated the NYTimes have obtained a high resolution version of the video.

It seems legit.


From their twitter thread:




and heres a version of the latest telegram video without watermarks

I concur with geolocation.

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1734x679/iranparand_83a0d24e19a048a6801a0bb29f74e17ae0e2edeb.jpg

Google Map Link

https://goo.gl/maps/zgxMVMUfAcuxyHDD6

Video at following post

https://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/628650-ukrainian-aircraft-down-iran-13.html#post10658174

[Airbubba]

Is it just me or is anyone at the accident site concerned about gathering body parts for future funeral arrangements. Do they even care.

In keeping with the mood of the thread. It looks more and more like a shoot down.

I thought that the Red Crescent and other rescue personnel appeared to be quite professional in their recovery of the human remains.

The scene looked to me much more organized than some other crash sites overseas, e.g.

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1632x1080/air_india_flight_812_crash_09_large__97660e1f5e1372e4d1e79cb de3546f703a491bc6.jpg

One irony to a Westerner is that some of the photos posted by the ISNA (Iranian Students' News Agency) showed body parts without censorship but wedding photos of a bride not in a hijab were bowdlerized.

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1000x667/61535814_f56d333be128b6df8d172df42843bbdf9e24ee1c.jpg

[MrsDoubtfire]

Especially as this aircraft was apparently about an hour behind schedule. Perhaps there weren't supposed to be any aircraft operating from the airport at that time (I guess someone here would know?) - the SAM unit wouldn't necessarily be tied in to the civil ATC or monitoring their freqs, let alone be actively talking to them on the 'phone or radio.
Traffic in and around Tehran during the time in question according to Flightradar:
https://www.flightradar24.com/2020-01-08/02:55/12x/35.56,51.64/9

[BFM]

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/608x1080/vs200109_001_79400b3a91eb0a8b0f8a30b602bccef3fa35b33f.jpg
This is a still from the first frame showing the rapidly growing light source, which is consistent with an explosion. It appears to be partly shielded, suggesting it may be exploding under and in front of the port wing (the aircraft would be moving from right to left at the moment of impact) perhaps?

[retired guy]

New York Times has up to date “confirmation”of missile attack.
Always seemed only reasonable conclusion.
At least it’s not more bad news for Boeing which could have been terminal if the plane had simply exploded due to massive unprecedented explosion
very sad indeed for all concerned whatever the cause
RG

[Willard Whyte]

Indeed. Not only would Iran's SAM defences been on edge at the time, is it not highly likely that the US would have been overhead watching what was happening?

Perhaps the SAM was intended for a US military spy plane?

It might suit both sides to conceal the cause.

Unlikely, normally different SAM designs for high level vs. low level targets, and the picture, if kosher, is of a low level system.



At least it’s not more bad news for Boeing which could have been terminal if the plane had simply exploded due to massive unprecedented explosion

RG

Which is probably why the Iranians responded rather too quickly with 'technical malfunction' as the cause. Bet they couldn't believe their luck when it turned out to be a 737.

[ThreeThreeMike]

A SAM Head is found DURING the search of the downed aircraft crash site in Tehran, in a crash that took place during a very tense period of time due to Iran launching missiles into Iraq, with unusual puncture evidence, the Iranians do not want to release the CVR and Data Recorder, and we are wanting to look at something other than what is patently obvious?

When it looks like a Duck, waddles like a Duck, and quacks like a Duck.....you know...it might just be a Duck!


https://defence-blog.com/news/ukrainian-passenger-jet-crashed-after-being-hit-by-iranian-tor-m1-missile.html


You can understand that due to the sheer volume of 737 flights worldwide on a daily basis, this devastating crash of a 3 year old airframe in a part of the world that has seen an unprecedented amount of alarming activity in recent days is being regarded by some as slightly more than coincidental.



In spite of the literary gymnastics by some posters that attempt to explain away the obvious, it's becoming quite clear the aircraft was shot down by an AA missile.

​​​​​​​The videos, photos of penetration damage, and most significantly the missile seeker head, reflect the fact that the totalitarian Iranian regime cannot prevent the ubiquitous smartphone from revealing that what had been suspected has indeed occurred.

[JanetFlight]

New clip more extended from a total new angle and duration
https://www.instagram.com/p/B7HdTwcFJgg/?igshid=1olk482vnapv
Or
w w w.instagram.com/p/B7HdTwcFJgg/?igshid=1olk482vnapv
Close the Ws

[Avman]

Mrs Doubtfire: From what I could make out just looking at FR24 is that there were no departures for about 45 minutes prior to the AUI departure. Is that correct?

[pattern_is_full]

I don't put much weight on the meaning of the heading reversal. ALL of the following LOCA accidents involved a heading reversal or close approximation. None of them were "trying to return to the airport" - they were simply ~halfway through an out-of-control spiral at the moment of impact.

AF447
Colgan Air 3407
AirAsia 8501

I believe this aircraft simply just "rolled in" once the aerodynamics and/or the control systems and/or the crew were compromised by the missile strike.

[aox]

9. Immediate statements that black boxes would not be shared with Boeing and US.
10. Early statements stating memory of black boxes damaged likely without detailed lengthy specialist attempts.

It just doesn't look good the overall picture emerging, and understandably nobody will admit what the real facts are.

Only a thorough genuine transparent investigation will tell, and you only get that if all sides want to reveal the truth. In the absence of an open transparent investigation, the events and information allows everyone to come to their own conclusions.

The reports of refusal to share the recorders outside the country were later called as due to poor translation.

A more recent report has

"... the black box of this very Ukrainian Boeing 737 is damaged. Ukrainian Aviation experts arrived here in Tehran today. We had a session with them. From tomorrow they will start decoding the data."

"If the available equipment is not enough to get the content Iran will outsource the boxes to the experts from France or Canada," Abedzadeh said.

Of direct concern to what you say there is will the investigation be carried out and openly published by the relevant authorities, including those coming from abroad, or will things be hampered by the state.

A spokesman for the Iranian regime has been quoted denouncing speculation about missiles as a form of psychological warfare. Not necessarily promising for the clarity of the ultimate result.

[unmanned_droid]

There were 9 scheduled jet departures 0400-0459, 3 0500-0559 (including the Ukrainian) and 4 0600-0659. It seems operating an hour or more late is also pretty standard there.

Thanks for the info. I believe the situation still leaves room for the aircraft to look potentially suspicious in the prevailing circumstances (not that this in any way excuses the actions of the operators).

MrsDoubtfire - your link didn't work for me, although that may be because of how my browser is configured.

A shoot down was the only viable conclusion I came to. I consider catastrophic failure of a wing tank and thus the loss of the aircraft, due to a UERF or FBO event to be even less likely than a SAM shootdown in the environment the aircraft was being operated in.

Debris trajectories are considered as part of the airworthiness requirements of the aircraft (as TDRacer mentions up thread - there is a requirement for +/- 5 degrees coverage forward and aft of a defined zone). On some aircraft designs, where it is not possible to avoid intersecting the wing with high energy damage, purposely dry volumes are designed in to try to stop fuel venting over parts of the engine hot enough to ignite the fuel. QF32 showed that a turbine could fail and penetrate the wing, and ignite fuel, but that a fire was likely to put itself out, either due to impinging air on the outside blowing the fire out, sheer liquid fuel quantity extinguishing the fire or due to a lack of air on the inside of the tank - fire uses up the bay free air. QF32 also shows that you can almost completely sever the front spar and maintain adequate structural integrity for normal flight and landing. This is not a design case!

[Pilot DAR]

I know that the insurance for my planes specify exclusions for damage resulting from an "act of war". Would being downed by a missile be considered an act of war? I recall that the US [eventually] paid out the Iran airline when they shot their airliner down many years ago. I don't recall what was the outcome of the MH17 shoot down. Would an airline be able to collect on their liability and aircraft hull insurance when it was determined to have been shot down?

[Lord Farringdon]

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/608x1080/vs200109_001_79400b3a91eb0a8b0f8a30b602bccef3fa35b33f.jpg
This is a still from the first frame showing the rapidly growing light source, which is consistent with an explosion. It appears to be partly shielded, suggesting it may be exploding under and in front of the port wing (the aircraft would be moving from right to left at the moment of impact) perhaps?


Interesting. Not sure if that may just be a lighting artifact between video frames. However, if it is a shadow cast on initial detonation it would not be on the port (left) side since that is in line of sight with the camera and therefore 'under the wing' would be visible, not hidden. The missile appears to approach the aircraft from off centre and to the right. You get a sense for this when you compare the missile track against the post impact aircraft track. So it is more likely the missile approached and detonated on the starboard (right hand) side of the aircraft in which case the initiation of the warhead may have been partly shielded by the fuselage which seems more likely in this case. Not trying to 'make this fit', but this would also support right hand side fragmentation damage alluded to earlier especially the hole punched through the vertical stabilizer from right to left and the (probable) right hand aft engine cowl / tail-cone assembly.
All very sad.

[Ian W]

This seems relatively conclusive "New Video shows 'missile' hit Ukrainian Airlines Boeing 737 before it crashed killing 176

Daily Mail Story (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7870409/Video-appears-surface-air-missile-hitting-Ukrainian-plane-moments-crashed.html)

Video of missile and explosion (https://video.dailymail.co.uk/preview/mol/2020/01/09/4310494828490540148/964x580_MP4_4310494828490540148.mp4)

[Profit Max]

I did my own geolocation of the video and found the same (didn't refresh for a while so I didn't see comments - good to have independent confirmation). Video was shot from here: 35.489223, 50.906857, and the explosion happened in North-West to North-North-Westerly direction.

According to my estimates, the sound of the explosion arrives 10.8 seconds after the flash, which means the video was shot from around 3.7 km away from the explosion. Last known altitude from flightradar24 is 7925 feet. Ground altitude is around 1.1 km. So with some trigonometry, we find that the ground distance from the point where the video was taken is around 3.5 km. With the location of the person taking the video and the line of sight, the explosion happens roughly in this area: 35.5161, 50.9287

However, it appears, the aircraft travelled around 17 seconds between the last ADS-B transmission and the time of being hit by the missile based on the intersection of the presumed flight path and the line of sight from the video. Altitude would then have been approximately 800 feet higher, so ground distance from person taking video would only have been 3.3 km, putting the revised location of the explosion in this area: 35.5140, 50.9263. The angular altitude of the explosion as seen from the position of where the video was taken would then be around 25°, which seems to be consistent with the video (but someone should check this in detail).

Working assumption for the reason of the missing 17 seconds would be that there were two missiles launched (as suggested by the intelligence from the US). The first missile was launched at took out ADS-B and radio at least. The explosion is heard and the person turns on the video camera just in time to catch the second missile hit the plane.

[SATCOS WHIPPING BOY]

For what it's worth here's my take on this.
I do think there may have been an initial technical fault which may or may not have been communicated to ATC which caused the aircraft to turn back towards the airport. From what I see the remains were taking a distinctly SE track. This may well be the root of the first claims that a "technical issue" had downed the aircraft. From what I can gather in the various translated statements is that the aircraft did not declare an emergency, but that does not rule out a non-urgency communication of a minor problem. Apparently this aircraft had already left tower frequency and was either in the process of changing enroute or had already done so, so any comms would unlikely to have been with local at this point.

Having worked airfields with air defences in climbout and approach lanes I can assure you that there will be comms between tower and those sites, maybe not so between the enroute sector and the missile battery. Maybe we have a situation where pilot knows he is turning back, sector knows he is turning back but tower and missile site are still unaware.

Add to this the heightened state of the defences, the steady stream of NW'ly outbounds and suddenly an aircraft appears (reappears) heading towards the airfield. It's not expected, no communication from anyone as to what it might be and a conclusion jumped to by the battery crew before anyone can get the message to the right people in time.
Whatever the cause, this remains a tragedy and thoughts go out to all involved and affected.

PS. We all know the Aviate, Navigate, Communicate mantra oft repeated on here. In the current clmate, especially in missile protected regions maybe that last point starts to take on a higher priority.
Stay safe.

[visibility3miles]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/world/middleeast/iran-plane-crash-ukraine.html

Jan. 9, 2020 Updated 8:56 p.m. ET


American satellites, designed to track missile launches, detected the firing of the Iranian short-range interceptor. United States intelligence agencies later picked up Iranian communications confirming that the system brought down the Ukrainian airliner, officials said.

Iranian officials questioned the Western account, saying the plane would have exploded if hit by a missile. The air defense system used Wednesday, however, is designed to explode near aircraft, creating shrapnel that takes a plane out of the sky, rather than directly hitting it.

In addition to denying responsibility, Iran invited the National Transportation Safety Board of the United States to assist in the investigation despite previous reports that the Americans would not be involved, according to correspondence reviewed by The Times. The board assigned an investigator to the crash, a spokesman said on Thursday evening.

[Airbubba]

NTSB media release tonight.

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/854x850/en4wpjxu4aaqcbl_0fb04089dbd588c91be4c3dad7220a17bde552e1.jpg

[Airbubba]

Opposition advocacy journalist Malachy Browne gives this analysis of the video locales.

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/850x181/browne_3_6bc9753c0b7006c7421794af0838e5914d9e0fdc.jpg
https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1200x779/browne_4_f71917694ef55a31469d9c0aca49f7903f38cca9.jpg

[Icarus2001]

Maybe there was a drone watching it to detect launches?

The satellites do a better job of that, as reported. "Drones" usually operate at higher altitudes.

Strange that it took so long for the videos to emerge.

The phone footage was on line within only about six hours of the accident. You think that a long time?

[pattern_is_full]

The maps on the Aviation Herald depict the following sequence:

- Aircraft departs airport heading northwest and paralleling the Karaj River.
- Missile strike video recorded with camera pointing northeast from near the Karaj River (town of Parand) as aircraft passes right to left - still tracking NW.
- no radio transmissions or XPDR received after approximately that point
- then the track turns right to SE to point of ground impact.

Is there evidence contradicting that sequence?

I've seen no evidence whatsover that the aircraft was hit by a missile while travelling "back to the airport" - and video that implies it was hit while travelling NW enroute Kyiv. But I have an open mind if there is additional evidence.

Crash: UIA B738 at Tehran on Jan 8th 2020, lost height after departure, aircraft on fire after missile hit (http://avherald.com/h?article=4d1aea51&opt=0)

[Prada]

Profit,

Very interesting analysis.....now I remember why I enjoyed Math Studies in University.....it allowed for a good Kip after Lunch.

Can you offer some suggestion of where the Missiles originated from based upon what you have discerned from all your number crunching?

Some local people in Teheran suggested that, missile is originated from here: https://www.google.com/maps/place/35%C2%B033'19.3%22N+50%C2%B054'18.7%22E/@35.555362,50.903005,685m/data=!3m2!1e3!4b1!4m6!3m5!1s0x0:0x0!7e2!8m2!3d35.5553623!4d5 0.9051985

They said it is some sort of air defence military object. Missile specifications allow easily to intercept that plane at 2400m altitude from the site.

[Airbubba]

Mrs Doubtfire: From what I could make out just looking at FR24 is that there were no departures for about 45 minutes prior to the AUI departure. Is that correct?

Correct. From the FlightRadar24 blog, it looks like PS752 was on a normal path for western departures:

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/949x653/fr24_ika_83054bcca853821f307c0c8b8cde41e43a45e5f6.jpg

[Takwis]

hooke.s_law: 27 flights were counted before, in&out Tehran airport.

27 flights went in and out of the Tehran airport...WITH TRANSPONDERS working. Something happened to this airplane, that cut all of it's communications, including transponder. The plane was headed practically right at Prada's air defense site, not squawking, not talking, in the dark, toward soldiers on high alert, anticipating an attack.

Naturally, they shot it down.

I think the key question then is, what caused the transponder and radios to cease working, at the end of the radar plot?

[cockpitvisit]

27 flights went in and out of the Tehran airport...WITH TRANSPONDERS working. Something happened to this airplane, that cut all of it's communications, including transponder.
But the transponder WAS working. As evidenced by flightradar24 having the flight path.

The video showing the alleged rocket impact on the plane was geolocated, it was made very close to the point of the last transponder transmission. So the failure of the transponder is the consequence of the plane being shot down, not its cause.

[fdr]

Some local people in Teheran suggested that, missile is originated from here: https://www.google.com/maps/place/35%C2%B033'19.3%22N+50%C2%B054'18.7%22E/@35.555362,50.903005,685m/data=!3m2!1e3!4b1!4m6!3m5!1s0x0:0x0!7e2!8m2!3d35.5553623!4d5 0.9051985

They said it is some sort of air defence military object. Missile specifications allow easily to intercept that plane at 2400m altitude from the site.

That is one of a couple of interesting installations, however the TOR is a mobile platform and would have been dispersed if there was an expectation of an attack. Movement of launchers would have bben part of the contingency if the attack into Iraq was planned with a modicum of depth.

The missile in the latest video taken from South of the track shows the plume of the SRM of the 9M331. That precludes the flight distance from the prepared sites that have been suggested. The max engagement range of an target is beyond the motor life, the burn time is a known value, and is less than that needed at the velocity of the missile. Anything over 5Km, there would be no SRM burn plume visible at detonation.

The video of the detonation at altitude is more than likely the second missile fired for various reasons.

The war head on these missiles will devastate the aircrafts systems but is not likely to completely destruct the aircraft of that size. It damages from fragmentation dispersed radially around the center of the weapon body. With CLOS it is not often going to actually hit a target, but a transport category aircraft is a simple target. Even IR missiles miss on many occasions.. (recall Arkia)

The 9m331 warhead is frag, don't believe it is a continuous rod though.

[Airbubba]

Looks like Boeing also has an invite to be guests of the Revolutionary Guards. Their visas will be ready as soon as the site is completely bulldozed. I hope I'm joking but I know that I'm probably not.

From the Associated Press:

Iran invites Boeing to probe plane crash that killed 176
By NASSER KARIMI and JOSEPH KRAUSS 3 minutes ago

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — Iran has invited Boeing to take part in the investigation into a Ukrainian jetliner that crashed earlier this week at a time of soaring tensions between Washington and Tehran, killing all 176 people on board, state media reported Friday.

The move came after Western leaders said the plane appeared to have been unintentionally hit by a surface-to-air missile near Tehran hours after Iran launched ballistic missiles at two U.S. bases in Iraq to avenge the killing of its top general in an American airstrike.

The ballistic missile attack on the bases caused no casualties, raising hopes that the standoff over the killing of Gen. Qassem Soleimani would end relatively peacefully. But Iran has sent mixed signals (https://apnews.com/8f72df659a18d8e3696c84428805675b) over whether its retaliation is complete.

The state-run IRNA news agency quoted a Foreign Ministry spokesman as saying Iran “has invited both Ukraine and the Boeing company to participate in the investigations.” The spokesman, Abbas Mousavi, said it will also welcome experts from other countries’ whose citizens died in the crash.

Iran had initially said it would not allow Boeing to take part in the probe, going against prevailing international norms on crash investigations. It later invited the U.S. accident-investigating agency to take part in the investigation.The National Transportation Safety Board said late Thursday that it would “evaluate its level of participation,” but its role could be limited by U.S. sanctions on Iran. U.S. officials have also expressed concern about sending employees to Iran because of the heightened tensions.

Under rules set by a United Nations aviation organization, the NTSB is entitled to participate because the crash involved a Boeing 737-800 jet that was designed and built in the U.S.

There was no immediate comment from Boeing.

U.S., Canadian and British officials said Thursday it is “highly likely” that Iran shot down the Boeing 737 that crashed near Tehran late Tuesday. U.S. officials said the jetliner might have been mistakenly identified as a threat.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whose country lost at least 63 citizens in the downing, said “we have intelligence from multiple sources including our allies and our own intelligence.”

“The evidence indicates that the plane was shot down by an Iranian surface-to-air missile,” he said.

U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison offered similar statements. Morrison also said it appeared to be a mistake. “All of the intelligence as presented to us today does not suggest an intentional act,” he said.

Mousavi said Iran asks Canada’s prime minister and any other government to “provide any information they have to the investigation committee.”

Iranian officials have ruled out a missile strike, and initially said the plane appeared to have crashed because of technical difficulties.

A preliminary Iranian investigative report released Thursday said that the airliner pilots never made a radio call for help and that the aircraft was trying to turn back for the airport when the burning plane went down.

The Iranian report suggested that a sudden emergency struck the Boeing 737, operated by Ukrainian International Airlines, just minutes after taking off from Imam Khomeini International Airport in Tehran early Wednesday.

Before the U.S. assessment, Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency quoted Hasan Rezaeifa, the head of the civil aviation accident investigation commission, claiming that “the topics of rocket, missile or anti-aircraft system is ruled out.”

___

[ATC Watcher]

Amazing statements made here based on Twitter, insagram videos of bad quality, conspiratorial or Iranian opposition web sites, but OK Trudeau and Trump said they had intelligence proving it , so let's wait until if they share it .The photo posted by Airbubba in post 317 indeed refresh some memories for those old enough to remember this guy , you could add Colin Powell to that.
I smell another big rat .. but maybe it is just my suspicion nature.
As said it again , the aircraft was on the SID under the control of Merhabad ACC. and was cleared to FL260 , so mis-identification is very unlikely and as it is a joint Aciv/mil ATC facility the ,military would have had the details . The attitude of the Iranian CAA does not lend towards a cover up ,, For the rest... a unsupervised a trigger happy revolutionary guard ? maybe, anything is possible..

[DaveReidUK]

It's just very suspicious all the facts and emerging snippets of information together on this one.

3. The fact it was a Ukrainian aircraft yet again, third time either shot down or aircraft disappears.

What do you mean ?

[bud leon]

Oh my God...if this notice is true this sounds plain stupid and abnormal...!!!???
Iran authorities are bulldozing the crash site...Really!?
https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-bulldozers-ukrainian-jet-crash-site-complicate-investigation-2020-1

That piece of equipment is not a bulldozer, it is a loader, and will likely be being used to lift heavy pieces of aircraft for recovery. In that picture there is no evidence of the site being bulldozed. There is a significant amount of imagery coming from the site and there is no imagery of the site being bulldozed.

In fact the article reads: "Iran has used bulldozers to move around pieces of debris from a crashed Ukrainian passenger jet, potentially destroying evidence which could help determine exactly what happened to it. Images and reports from the crash site, just outside Tehran, show at least one bulldozer working in the debris at the site"

The article doesn't say they are bulldozing the site, and the article wrongly refers to a picture of "at least one" loader as a bulldozer (in typical journalistic hyperbole).

To be honest I don't even think the site needs to be preserved, there is already enough evidence including video and reported radar tracking of missile attacks. And the Iran government has nothing to gain by shooting down a Ukrainian plane filled with Iranian passport holders so it was obviously an accident or rogue activity. Iran still wants to function as country and closing down air travel does not do it any benefit whatsover.

[sandos]

This seems relatively conclusive "New Video shows 'missile' hit Ukrainian Airlines Boeing 737 before it crashed killing 176

Daily Mail Story (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7870409/Video-appears-surface-air-missile-hitting-Ukrainian-plane-moments-crashed.html)

Video of missile and explosion (https://video.dailymail.co.uk/preview/mol/2020/01/09/4310494828490540148/964x580_MP4_4310494828490540148.mp4)

Seems they misidentified the launch area though? I believe the missile need to have come from the sand-bag-like base (as was pointed out very early) in the _right_ of the image, not to the left as daily mail drew. Its from opposite side of the flight path compared to the video so the missile can not have come from the left there, too.

[Auxtank]

Still Frame taken from the video posted under discussion - with bellingcat and clever chaps here doing the geo-locating above.
Frame is 0.8 seconds after explosion.

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/599x367/fdgdg_54bb60127a851775b4a3835749a24ea7886b1a73.png

[Auxtank]

Not good news; unless all pieces have been tagged, carefully collected and removed to a hangar somewhere for reconstruction.

https://twitter.com/elizapalmer/status/1215525563961630720

[Sallyann1234]

Has there been any expert analysis of the sound which follows the visual flash after a corresponding delay due to distance?

To my ears it is the sudden sharp sound of an explosive, rather than any noise due to e.g. an engine failure. And an internal explosive would likely be much smaller and not anywhere near so loud. This seems to be further evidence of a missile.

[Widger]

There appear to be some very naive comments on this thread and an assumption that in Iran there exists a fully integrated and coordinated civil military system. History tells us that even more mature and capable States around the world get it wrong.

In 1998 the USS Vincennes, a state of art guided missile cruiser with highly trained warfare specialists, shoots down an Iranian Airbus flying south out of Bandar Abbas, with the correct squawk, following an airway and in contact with ATC. 290 deaths

The shooting down of a UK GR4 by a US Patriot Missile in 2003 (Gulf War II). Edited thanks

The shooting down of MH17 over Ukraine by Separatists or others unknown - 298 deaths

Aeroflot 902 in 1962 with 80+ deaths during an air defence exercise

Siberian 1812 in 2001 during a Ukrain military exercise 78 dead

There are lots of examples of deliberate and accidental shootdowns across the decades. Some of the accidental ones will be down to poor procedures, not following safety routines, incompetence, fear, disregard for safety, ignorance, lack of identification equipment, lack of training or a whole combination of everything. Even a highly technical system can get it wrong and present to someone on high alert, a hostile target that is in fact a civilian aircraft with innocent souls onboard. I echo the comments of a previous poster in regardless of how much more fuel it will cost, shut such airspace down and do not allow aircraft to fly across conflict areas.

May they all rest in peace,

[PuraVidaTransport]

Iranian investigators showing the media the black boxes Can anyone translate what they are saying?
https://twitter.com/Ruptly/status/1215573747106832386

[dmba]

With any luck the "accident" might just have occurred at the time to avoid many more unnecessary deaths in what could easily have escalated quickly in to tit for tat attacks. Let's hope the shock of shooting down a commercial aircraft shows Iran they're not quite ready for a war.

[GlueBall]

...the aircraft was on the SID under the control of Merhabad ACC. and was cleared to FL260 , so mis-identification is very unlikely The attitude of the Iranian CAA does not lend towards a cover up ..

So are you suggesting that this snafu was completely different from the mistaken shoot-down of MH17 whose miss-identification was more likely? Do tell.

[Dave Gittins]

First report I heard on BBC R4 at about 7.20 am was that the aeroplane was down and the UIA were reporting it as an engine problem and not thought to be terrorism related.

[ASpectrum]

Could you please quote some examples of these first reports and leaks?

My recollection is that people were remarking on the absence of comment (from anyone but the Iranians). Something I posted on this forum as possibly explained by an unwillingness to say anything that might inflame an already tense situation.

I don't remember reading anything - other than official Iranian reports - that suggested "no shoot down".

Western intelligence agencies see no signs Ukraine airliner was shot down - Canadian source reuters

Search that in google and you'll be linked to an article that states:
OTTAWA, Jan 8 (Reuters) - The initial assessment of Western intelligence agencies is that a Ukrainian airliner which crashed in Iran on Wednesday was not brought down by a missile, said a Canadian security source.

The source, who declined to be identified, said the agencies believed the Boeing 737 plane had suffered a technical malfunction. The Ukraine International Airline jet crashed shortly after takeoff from Tehran, killing all 176 people on board. (Reporting by David Ljunggren; Editing by Amran Abocar and Chizu Nomiyama)


By then checking David Ljunggren's twitter, you will find a tweet about:
"Five security sources - three Americans, one European and one Canadian - told Reuters the initial assessment of Western intelligence agencies was that the plane had suffered a technical malfunction and had not been brought down by a missile"

I would link you myself, but I cannot as a new user.

[Lonewolf_50]

I'm curious, does anybody have access to the Iranian notams that were in effect for the day of this tragic incident?
It seems to me that the onus to operate into or out off Iranian airspace would be the operators responsibility.
As far as I can tell the aircraft in question was sat on the ground in IKA having arrived the previous evening. The crew operating the aircraft on flight PS752 IKA/KBP would or should have been made aware of the situation wrt the attack launched by Iran on the two bases in Iraq.I would be astounded if they hadn't been notified accordingly during their briefing.

So the question is who, given that the aircraft would potentially be flying through at the very least significantly dangerous airspace, approved the flight for operational release?

The operator has a duty not to knowingly endanger the passengers lives.
Your point on NOTAMS will hopefully be answered soon, and is an interesting question.
As for the rest, you are invited to read the thread before throwing out an opinion.
This post (https://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/628650-ukrainian-aircraft-down-iran-17.html) (because someone bothered to help us all by doing some research) and FR 24 (https://www.flightradar24.com/2020-01-08/03:03/12x/35.56,51.64/7) show a case of "air ops as normal in Iran" - this operator (from the Ukraine) is hardly alone in simply going about their usual business.
potentially be flying through at the very least significantly dangerous airspace,
Sounds like a lawyer trying to create justification for a law suit. Ghoulish, at best.

[TigerHeavy]

Dear lonewof_50
Thanks for your reply. I'm not a ghoulish lawyer.I spent almost 40 years as a flight operations senior manager within commercial aviation. Prior to commenting I had read the whole thread and then read it again.

[liider]

Ukraine never admitted, that they shot down flight 1812 in 2001.
Even after pieces of shrapnel were found, and voices of pilots on CVR talking that they were hit by the rocket.

Ukraine denies everything about 2001 crash, Russia denies everything about MH17, Iran will probably forever deny everything too.

[lomapaseo]

There is nothing wrong or untoward about removing the wreckage from the impact site. They have had enough time to document the geo-locations of the major pieces and at the same time to remove the human remains to a separate location.

The very few worldwide experts that arrive after this removal will have no trouble in assessing the mechanical state of the aircraft as to an inherent fault (e.g engines) vs external caused in-flight damages. This all goes with the expertise and integrity of the investigators. It won't take more than a couple of hours to confirm the engine condition either from internal or exterior events. The aircraft structure itself will need a more labour intensive examination to separate in-flight damage from impact damage.

The follow-on issues of suggesting human blame and/or contribution will use up most of the onward discussions including the wild conspiracy theories sure to follow.

So far I have seen from the photos some unresolved unusual damage to some structures but at the same time if an investigators eyeball is available it should be easy to resolve causes. As I said much earlier one should not assume holes in structures mean anything beyond crash impact, unless such holes can be traced back in a trajectory analysis to a common source. That's why it is so helpful to have all the major parts in a small common area undercover from outside.

[MrsDoubtfire]

First report I heard on BBC R4 at about 7.20 am was that the aeroplane was down and the UIA were reporting it as an engine problem and not thought to be terrorism related.
This is from the Aviation Herald - he reports chronologically. First reactions here:

Ukraine's Embassy to the Iran tweeted that UIA confirmed their aircraft crashed near Tehran Airport after takeoff. According to first information all occupants have been killed. A task force and a hotline for relatives has been set up. The Embassy subsequently added a statement on their website stating: "According to preliminary information from the Iranian side, the plane crashed due to an engine failure due to technical reasons. The version of the terrorist attack or rocket attack is currently excluded."
Crash: UIA B738 at Tehran on Jan 8th 2020, lost height after departure, aircraft on fire after missile hit (http://avherald.com/h?article=4d1aea51&opt=0)

[Prada]

Another two videos of burning aircraft in the sky. Last video shows burning plane 58 seconds before impact with the ground. The plane was in the air for another 4 minutes before first missile hit. (If I can remember security cam showed 19min 36sec at impact.) Explosions in the air was probably the reason people started to take video.

https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee/status/1215636193918029826

[Prada]

Yet another video from another angle:
https://twitter.com/A_zee7/status/1215535453706899456

[Observer1940]

Looking at the videos I cannot see anything to support the aircraft being engaged by the ground, above any other normal accident cause.

The only thing the footage (if related to this crash) prove, is that fire has broken out in the air, before the impact with the ground. This is absolutely insufficient to draw any conclusions as to any preliminary cause.

Our Guardian newspaper in Britain are reporting that Iranian Investigators are going to allow Canadian Investigators and Boeing to attend.

Mark

[ErwinS]

Ukraine never admitted, that they shot down flight 1812 in 2001.
Even after pieces of shrapnel were found, and voices of pilots on CVR talking that they were hit by the rocket.

Ukraine denies everything about 2001 crash, Russia denies everything about MH17, Iran will probably forever deny everything too.

They admitted and paid compensation. Dont talk nonsens....

[Profit Max]

Looking at the videos I cannot see anything to support the aircraft being engaged by the ground
The video published by the NYT clearly shows a SAM hitting an aircraft: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/video/iran-plane-missile.html
All the other videos showing the aircraft on fire are taken after that video.

[Airbubba]

There is nothing wrong or untoward about removing the wreckage from the impact site. They have had enough time to document the geo-locations of the major pieces and at the same time to remove the human remains to a separate location.

Yep, nothing to see here, right?

Scavengers Are Taking Evidence From the Iran Plane Crash Site, CBS ReportsTROPHY HUNTERSJamie Ross (https://www.thedailybeast.com/author/jamie-ross)Reporter (https://www.thedailybeast.com/author/jamie-ross)

Updated Jan. 10, 2020 6:34AM ET / Published Jan. 10, 2020 6:10AM ET https://img.thedailybeast.com/image/upload/c_crop,d_placeholder_euli9k,h_2916,w_5184,x_0,y_540/dpr_1.5/c_limit,w_608/fl_lossy,q_auto/v1578654465/RTS2XLTB_y7zp34VIA REUTERSScavengers are being allowed access to the site of Wednesday’s plane crash in Iran to take away pieces of evidence, CBS News reports. The network’s foreign correspondent Elizabeth Palmer was able to enter the site before being told to leave by Iranian security officials. She reported that “apparent scavengers” were scouring through what debris is left from the crash and looking for pieces of the plane to take away. Palmer also reported that witnesses told her a truck arrived on Thursday to take the vast majority of the wreckage, but Iran has not said where it was taken. The jet’s fuselage and nose had been removed, and witnesses said the relocation of the wreckage started on the day of the crash. Ukrainian investigators have not visited the site, and will now find a largely empty area. Palmer wrote (https://twitter.com/elizapalmer/status/1215525563961630720?s=20) on Twitter: “No security. Not cordoned off. No sign of any investigators.”


https://www.thedailybeast.com/iran-plane-crash-site-is-being-scrubbed-of-evidence-by-scavengers-cbs-reports

[triumph61]

Place of the Video confirmed.
https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1215661796767543296?s=20

[Airbubba]

I now appears that Iran will not send the recorders to another country to be read.

From Reuters:

January 10, 2020 / 3:34 AM / Updated 17 minutes agoIran to analyze black box after missile blamed for crash
Alexander Cornwell (https://www.reuters.com/journalists/alexander-cornwell), Parisa Hafezi (https://www.reuters.com/journalists/parisa-hafezi)

DUBAI (Reuters) - Iran said on Friday it wanted to download black box recordings itself from a Ukrainian airliner that crashed, killing all 176 people aboard, after Canada and others said the plane was brought down by an Iranian missile, probably by mistake.

Iran, which has denied the Boeing 737-800 was downed by a missile, said it could take one or two months to extract information from the voice and flight data recorders. It said it could ask Russia, Canada, France or Ukraine if it needed help.

Tehran also said the probe might take one or two years.

[RTD1]

So, we have:
- US military officials stating that they have satellite detection of the search radar turning on, followed by the IR blip of the missile being launched, followed by the IR blip of the plane being hit, followed by the plane crash.
- Video of what appears to be a missile being launched and hitting the plane.
- Video of the plane in flames in the air followed by the crash.
- Photos of the wreckage that appear to show penetration of the fuselage by external shrapnel of some sort.
- The PMs of both Canada and the UK saying they believe that the plane was shot down and have evidence to support it.

I mean, I get it, it's not official until the investigation is completed and the final report issued, but based on the above it seems pretty likely that the plane was shot down.

[Airbubba]

For the discussion here, a couple of excerpts from ICAO Annex 13 concerning preservation of evidence and removal of the wreckage.

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/954x354/icao_3_2_78fac271ac3502e4ebff7adf561ff984dff63d98.jpg
https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1026x154/icao_5_6_6a38aff4d8edcc52575ab616711d10d79c91f51c.jpg

[liider]

They admitted and paid compensation. Dont talk nonsens....

In addition to compensation issues, the agreement has stated that "Ukraine is not legally responsible for the accident that occurred to the plane and free of any obligations regarding it".Commenting on the agreement, Gen. Oleksandr Kuz'muk (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oleksandr_Kuzmuk), the ex-Minister of Defense sacked after the accident,[25] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siberia_Airlines_Flight_1812#cite_note-25) told media that "the payments were a humane action, not the admission of guilt".Later as a deputy prime minister in the government of Viktor Yanukovych (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Yanukovych), Kuzmuk denied that the Ukrainian military was responsible for the shoot-down over the Black Sea, although Ukraine agreed to pay damages.

[Lonewolf_50]

In an effort to make this a proper PPRuNe thread: some related METAR information. :cool:

OIIE 080300Z 27006KT CAVOK M01/M04 Q1021
OIIE 080200Z 28006KT CAVOK M01/M04 Q1021 (METAR current at time of departure)
OIIE 080100Z 26006KT CAVOK M01/M04 Q1021

[sejo]

From Eurocontrol NOP : 10JAN 18:18

The following updated information has been provided by EASA for situational awareness:

In the wake of recent events in the Middle East, an extraordinary meeting of the Integrated EU Aviation security Risk Assessment Group held on Friday January 10th, 2020 concerning the use of the airspace of Iran (FIR Tehran (OIIX) as well as Iraq (FIR Baghdad (ORBB), evaluated the impact on the security and safety of all types of commercial flight operations in the region .

Available information from various sources has been reviewed as well as intelligence assessments from Member States and information from airlines and other relevant parties, so as to perform the most accurate assessment possible of the potential impact on civil traffic in the airspace of Iraq and Iran.

On the basis of existing information on these events, including the crash of a Ukrainian passenger aircraft near Tehran on January 8th, the Integrated EU Aviation security Risk Assessment Group assessed that the risk of operations over Iraq is HIGH at all altitudes, and HIGH over Iran below FL 250.

On that basis it is recommended as a precautionary measure that the overflight of Iraqi airspace should be avoided, as well as for the Iran airspace below FL 250, until further notice.

The Group came also to the conclusion that the situation in the region remains unstable and agreed to continue to monitor the situation to assess whether there is an increase or decrease of the risk for EU aircraft operators as a result of the evolution of the threat.

Please take this information and any other relevant guidance into account in your own risk assessments.


NMOC Brussels

[PAXboy]

andrasz
It appears increasingly likely that the civilian government was kept in the dark until the evidence became overwhelming, but by that time they were locked in denial. There must be a huge amount of poltical arm twisting going on at the moment on how will blame be apportioned, what heads will fall, and how to present matters without losing face, with various political players trying to take advantage of the situation.
Sounds just like any govt anywhere in the world ... deny everything. (Egyptair 990] :*

[Lomon]

Can anyone recall an uncontainable engine failure on a 737 (or equivalent) that:

a) caused a significant inflight fire
b) brought the aircraft down
c) created a crew load such no contact with ATC occurred

- GY
How about a gaping hole in the fuselage that resulted in a passenger being sucked out?
https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/boeing-737-jet-redesign-deaths-sucked-window-southwest-airlines-ryanair-a9210171.html
or
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-20/southwest-airlines-fatal-explosion-followed-2016-blowup/9678856

Two instances of fairly new 737's suffering catastrophic engine failure. All it needs is for all that shrapnel to destroy a significant portion of wing and fuel tank and you get a fireball in the sky.

It could also be a SAM after all missiles were flying that night.

You could also speculate MAC with a drone - I am sure an unnamed nation or two will have had some rather large RPAS flying around and keeping tabs on things.

[ferry pilot]

Strange only if you don't understand politics and the concept of face (and the saving thereof). (This is a thing not unique to any particular country)
It might be worth wandering back in time to the MH 370 event/investigation and the response of the local government to that event.
Remember the bit about the radar site near Panang, and the what they radar data did or didn't show?
And as far as denial in the face of facts, Egypt Air Flt 990 remains a classic of the genre (https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2001/11/the-crash-of-egyptair-990/302332/).
You are right. and further to that, aviation and politics may be oil and water, but separating them is not going to happen. Even with a critical need for truth to the benefit of all, the fog of partisanship, liability, and blame will ensure what we see is not necessarily what we are going to believe. The most compelling facts and conclusions are tinted by the lens we choose to view them through, evidenced by much of what has been posted on this and other forums. The bottom line however, is this. No politics, no argument and therefore no discussion. Politics getting in the way of truth is what this is really all about. But let us not forget that.

[pattern_is_full]

Wow!!! Horse,stable,bolted spring to mind.
Can somebody who really knows about these things tell me to what altitude a SAM can be fired. TIA

For the Russian-made TOR-M system (NATO designation SA-15 Gauntlet), which is the "suspect" system in this event - 20,000 feet/6000m

[the_stranger]

So, we have:
- US military officials stating that they have satellite detection of the search radar turning on, followed by the IR blip of the missile being launched, followed by the IR blip of the plane being hit, followed by the plane crash.
- Video of what appears to be a missile being launched and hitting the plane.
- Video of the plane in flames in the air followed by the crash.
- Photos of the wreckage that appear to show penetration of the fuselage by external shrapnel of some sort.
- The PMs of both Canada and the UK saying they believe that the plane was shot down and have evidence to support it.

I mean, I get it, it's not official until the investigation is completed and the final report issued, but based on the above it seems pretty likely that the plane was shot down.
The Dutch government also reports their intelligence service also determined the aircraft was shot down (based on own research).

[Coborn C6]

This is compounded by the fact that any admission and release of details would give away much information about the (dis)functionality of the Iranian chain of command, which is understandably the last thing they would want to do at the moment.

As ever you make some wise observations andrasz. I think the one I've quoted above might have a significant impact on this accident investigation and the establishment of the truth.

If this was a shoot down and we follow the causal chain of this event back far enough, we are talking about a situation in which certain countries didn't want Iran to get hold of nuclear weapons, that led to tension in which a mistake might have been made.

The problem for those countries is how to stop Iran, especially when several of them have nuclear weapons themselves and there are others in the international community sympathetic to the idea that if one country has them then they don't have the right to stop others doing the same.

If the investigation into this accident concludes that it was the result of a missile, and the itchy/clumsy finger that pushed the button did so as a result of the dysfunctionality you refer to, then it might pose the question as to what might have happened if the missile had been a nuclear armed one and the accidental target was Israel or Saudi Arabia, rather than a 737.

The Iranian authorities are going to have to demonstrate (via the accident investigation if possible) that they are fully in control of all their weapon systems and they never have accidents. Otherwise the number of countries lining up to say Iran should never have nukes is only going to increase. In a strange way this terrible tragedy has the potential to give Trump a kind of victory after all.

If I'm right in linking these issues then it means the accident investigation is going to be difficult and very, very protracted.

[marie paire]

"...

The Iranian authorities are going to have to demonstrate (via the accident investigation if possible) that they are fully in control of all their weapon systems and they never have accidents. Otherwise the number of countries lining up to say Iran should never have nukes is only going to increase. In a strange way this terrible tragedy has the potential to give Trump a kind of victory after all.

...."
Your line of reasoning would take as far. Where we similarly to conclude that because of Iran Air Flight 655 was shot down by the US Navy allegedly due to confusion on the command centre of USS Vincennes the Navy should be denied having any cruise missile-equipped vessels?

[Australopithecus]

If the investigation into this accident concludes that it was the result of a missile, and the itchy/clumsy finger that pushed the button did so as a result of the dysfunctionality you refer to, then it might pose the question as to what might have happened if the missile had been a nuclear armed one and the accidental target was Israel or Saudi Arabia, rather than a 737.

The Iranian authorities are going to have to demonstrate (via the accident investigation if possible) that they are fully in control of all their weapon systems and they never have accidents. Otherwise the number of countries lining up to say Iran should never have nukes is only going to increase. In a strange way this terrible tragedy has the potential to give Trump a kind of victory after all.

If I'm right in linking these issues then it means the accident investigation is going to be difficult and very, very protracted.

The very same argument could be made of the other nations that have mistakenly downed airliners. SAM battery command and control would have to be, by definition, looser than for any kind of strategic weapon system for obvious reasons. I do not think that you can compare nuclear launch failsafes to an anti-aircraft battery nor the trigger finger of a soldier in the field. You'd hope the SAM would not be subject to human error, but clearly that’s not the case.

[givemewings]

What might normally take several days to determine was announced while the devices were still laying amid smoking debris.


They weren't claiming to know the status of the internals. Elsewhere Farsi speakers have said the quote was regarding the external appearance of the recorders.

They state the recorders have an internal memory, and "they" (recorders, not memory module) are showing physical damage.

Seem wires got crossed and not realised the subject "they" changed in the course of those few sentences...

[givemewings]

History tells us that even more mature and capable States around the world get it wrong.

In 1998 the USS Vincennes, a state of art guided missile cruiser with highly trained warfare specialists, shoots down an Iranian Airbus flying south out of Bandar Abbas, with the correct squawk, following an airway and in contact with ATC. 290 deaths

The shooting down of a UK GR4 by a US Patriot Missile in 2003 (Gulf War II). Edited thanks

The shooting down of MH17 over Ukraine by Separatists or others unknown - 298 deaths

Aeroflot 902 in 1962 with 80+ deaths during an air defence exercise

Siberian 1812 in 2001 during a Ukrain military exercise 78 dead,

KAL 007 as well springs to mind...

I'm wondering why on earth civvie traffic was still operating- I know visitors likely wanted to get the heck out of dodge but it does seem fairly close to be flying at that point.

Flights have being diverted around Iraqi/Iranian airspace in the past for much less...

[Airbubba]

From the 'semi-official' Fars News Agency via Google Translate:

Economic (https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=auto&sp=nmt4&tl=en&u=https://www.farsnews.com/economy&xid=17259,15700023,15700186,15700191,15700256,15700259,15700 262,15700265,15700271&usg=ALkJrhhVjOfDHPVPstCLsR25sptzqxvS3g) / Road and Housing (https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=auto&sp=nmt4&tl=en&u=https://www.farsnews.com/economy/civil&xid=17259,15700023,15700186,15700191,15700256,15700259,15700 262,15700265,15700271&usg=ALkJrhg9_1BD6Bpz3r38D0hS49zK5D0GCw)
4:31 - 1/8/12 [apparently January 10, 2020]

The cause of the crash of the Ukrainian plane will be announced tomorrow

The cause of the collapse of the Ukrainian passenger plane will be announced tomorrow after the Air Accident Commission meeting.



https://media.farsnews.com/Uploaded/Files/Images/1398/10/18/13981018000184_Test_PhotoN.jpgA Fars reporter was informed that there will be a meeting tomorrow with the domestic and foreign parties involved in the crash of the Ukrainian plane, and that they will publish the reason for the plane crash after reviewing the preliminary report.

An informed source told Fars that the current speculation is not valid until the end of tomorrow's meeting and official announcement.

End of message /


Original Persian text:
خبرنگار فارس مطلع شد، فردا با حضور طرفین داخلی و خارجی مرتبط با حادثه سقوط هواپیمای اوکراینی جلسه*ای برگزار می*شود و پس از بررسی گزارش مقدماتی دلیل سقوط هواپیما را منتشر خواهند کرد

https://www.farsnews.com/news/13981011001055/علت-سقوط-هواپیمای-اوکراینی-فردا-اعلام-می%E2%80%8Cشود

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/969x403/fars_a5fd968c0c7552ad15b7a5f2dc3718f113485d1d.jpg

[gums]

Salute!

Whoa, Bubba!

Press release could be interestng, huh?

I found my original posts regarding "accidental" missile launches, and it is on page 11/12 #227 or so. Mozella and I commented on the missile theory.

It is entirely possible the launch of a missile salvo is completely "accidental" if the battery was tracking the "target" and "practicing" and a safety interlock was not in place or failed. And we should not forget that the military in the area may have been in a high state of alert.

No matter. The whole thing is a very sad thing.

Gums sends...

[HarryMann]

Given that aforementioned intelligence sources speak of two missiles hitting the 737, how likely is it that the plane would have remained structurally intact and capable of flight after the double impact? I

No... two missiles were said to be launched maybe 3. But statement implied only one struck.

[GlobalNav]

The most popular theory of this tragedy is that an Iranian SAM brought the airplane down. I have seen no reason to disbelieve it, but still, a theory.

What I am a bit amazed by is the political readiness to assume it was done in error, not with intent. What possible evidence is there for such a proposition?

There have been news reports that many of the passengers were leaving Iran for fear of a war. The airplane had been delayed, but finally permitted to depart. Why was it delayed? Why was it important that it depart? What kind of decision-making was in play prior to departure and could there be any relationship to the decision to lock up and launch SAMs? Could there have been multiple Iranian government and military agencies involved with different agendas? Just questions, no assertions. Let’s remember though that solid evidence has not been provided.

[Wind_Tunnel]

If it was brought down by a SAM, it had to have been intentional. These things don't happen by accident in Iran any more than they could ever happen in the US by accident.

If intentional, it could only have been because it was hijacked or cyber-jacked. No nation would slit its own political and economic throat by exploding a jet full of its own people, and putting its entire airline industry at risk.

Support for a hijack/cyber-jack - rendering a SAM merely a response, not a cause - is found by extending eastward the straight line from [point of last FR24 contact] to [point of impact]. Even if one allows space (1km?) for a right turn, we see that PS752 was in fact headed straight for downtown Tehran. If that's where it was headed, a SAM shoot-down finally makes sense: to protect the seat of Iranian power.

Any other SAM theory is so absurd, it's sad.

[PuraVidaTransport]

People should go back and read the report, or better yet watch the videos, done by the Dutch for MH17. The amount of information they were able to get from a variety of sources was amazing. In the end, they had cell phone intercepts of those directly involved and their commanders, social media photos that showed the missile launcher movements as well as missing missiles, satellite shots, parts of the missile from wreckage/bodies, paint from the missile on aircraft parts, radar records and a lot more. In this case, I would think the U.S. and its' allies all have that and perhaps much more. I can only imagine the surveillance on Tehran right now. Unless Iran just denies total access to everything, the truth will come out as it did in the MH17 case.

[Airbubba]

If it was brought down by a SAM, it had to have been intentional. These things don't happen by accident in Iran any more than they could ever happen in the US by accident.

If intentional, it could only have been because it was hijacked or cyber-jacked.
...
Any other SAM theory is so absurd, it's sad.

I think I like SASless' abductive duck test more than your deductive reasoning (a lot of ducks in this sentence). I'll admit that most of us Americans of a certain age are more familiar with Victor Kiam's Razor than Occam's Razor.

[Lord Farringdon]

What does Ukraine say?
Let's put all this hyperbole to rest about Iranian authorities covering up, bulldozers destroying evidence and investigators arriving with nothing to investigate. Let's accept we have two possibilities, one a technical issue and two a missile shoot down of which latter seems to have more supporting evidence even if circumstantial. Let's quit with all the reasons why a missile shoot down might have occurred since there is no one on this forum who has any idea of what went on and never will until the final report comes out. Some of the fantasies, conspiracy's, and emotional clap trap that is being put forward as fact has no place on a technical forum such as this.

This is an ​ extract taken from a BBC report filed just 6 hours ago from my posting. Let's actually listen to these Ukrainian guys and do what they say "stop the speculation". These guys have been there, done that and looks like they have the resources, Iranian cooperation and the experience to help the Iranian investigation team through this. Please stop bagging the investigators and putting politics into this investigation. Go to Reddit or Imgur if you want to do that. The time to judge the quality of the investigation is when they release their final report. I have bold emphasized the relevant parts. There seems to be a lot of relevant parts!!

At Friday's news briefing in Ukraine's capital Kyiv, Mr Prystaiko reiterated that at this stage Ukrainian investigators were not ruling out any possible cause of the crash.

But he called for the "level of speculation" to be reduced, adding that Ukraine wanted to establish an "international coalition" to conduct a thorough investigation.

Mr Prystaiko said nearly 50 Ukrainian investigators were already working in Iran, and there was "full co-operation" from Tehran.

"We are analysing pieces of the body of the plane, we are analysing the bodies of the people who died in the crash.

"We are analysing the chemical residues on the body of the plane. We will come to our conclusion, we don't want to come to them right now.

"Our team has now got access to the black boxes," he said, stressing that Ukraine wanted them to be analysed in Kyiv.

Iran earlier said it would download the information itself, adding that the process could take up to two months.

Kyiv earlier said the US had passed on "important data" about the crash, without providing any further details.

Ukraine's team in Iran includes experts who worked on the investigation into the 2014 downing by a missile of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 in eastern Ukraine (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28357880).

Edit: I should add that there are experts on this forum, obviously pilots and aircraft engineering, other aviation specialists, and in other fields whose technical and professional advice and contribution to the subject has and always will be welcome. They add a lot of value and provide a factual framework around which the rest of us can phrase our questions and offer our opinions..based on fact and with the benefit of those experts knowledge and experience .

[Airbubba]

Looks like the accident site has indeed been cleared before international investigators arrive. And before the cause of the crash is announced at the beginning of the investigation according to the FARS News Agency.

From CNN:

Iran plane crash site has been cleared of most wreckage, images showBy Eliza Mackintosh (/profiles/eliza-mackintosh), Joshua Berlinger (/profiles/joshua-berlinger), Radina Gigova (/profiles/radina-gigova) and Angela Dewan (/profiles/angela-dewan), CNN

Updated 7:59 PM ET, Fri January 10, 2020


(CNN)The field in Iran where a Ukrainian aircraft crashed (https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/07/middleeast/plane-crash-iran-intl-hnk/index.html)two days ago has been cleared of most of the wreckage, and the public has been trawling through what's left behind, new images shared with CNN show.


The crash site in Laleh Park, Shahedshahr.

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/780x438/200110110758_01_iran_plane_crash_site_exlarge_169_193f1245d2 08681757614fee8cbe59b58882b9e8.jpg



A soccer field near the crash site.

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/780x438/200110111356_03_iran_plane_crash_site_exlarge_169_aca1015259 329b8231a003c7746fbe165432efcb.jpg


The photos, taken near a soccer field in Laleh Park in the town of Shahedshahr on Friday, point to a clear lack of security at the site, just a day after western intelligence officials said Iran shot down the jet with surface-to-air missiles. Iran has denied any hostile act, calling the assessment a "big lie."

Normally, forensic officers from major investigative organizations would be poring over the wreckage to see it in its natural state before removing it to a secure area.


An eyewitness at the crash site told CNN on Friday that looters and "garbage men" were "wandering around," picking up debris, objects made of aluminum and anything else deemed valuable, as police and Revolutionary Guard Corps tried to disperse them.

The head of Iran's Civil Aviation Authority Ali Abedzadeh told CNN on Friday that fragments of the plane had been taken to a hangar off-site to "reconstruct" it for "investigating the cause of the crash," and that the remains of victims had been sent to a forensic lab for DNA testing.

Ukraine's Foreign Minister Vadym Prystaiko told CNN news partner CTV News that Ukrainian investigators had been missing the chairs from the plane, but that they were now beginning to get them from Iranian authorities. The investigators need to check parts for chemical residue, "which would allow us to indicate there was some chemical used in explosives," he said.

Debris, including passengers' personal items, at the scene.

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/780x438/200110111337_02_iran_plane_crash_site_exlarge_169_daf5f0ef2a 3affc51179088d37b5fe540816fe9a.jpg


He told CNN that his country is not ruling out terrorism and is checking to see whether a bomb was on the plane.
The foreign minister said there was a delay before the plane departed the gate during which some luggage was taken off the plane. He said Ukraine wants to know why.

He added, "as soon as we have something to share we will do it we understand people have to know the truth."

Fight data recorders from Ukrainian airliner shown at press conference in Tehran.

Speaking at the White House on Friday, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Washington believes it is "likely" that Iran was responsible for the downing of the Boeing 737-800 and that an "appropriate response" would be meted out when a "final determination" is made.

CNN obtained a video that appears to show a missile strike an object in Tehran's night sky, around the same time that the Ukrainian plane crashed early Wednesday, and separate footage that captures the moment of the crash in Shahedshahr.
The crash came just hours after Iran fired missiles at Iraqi military bases housing US troops in retaliation for a drone strike at Baghdad airport that killed Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani, who was one of Iran's most powerful and influential military leaders.

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/780x438/200110071517_01_iran_plane_crash_black_box_exlarge_169_86382 52cce5f443b214f14f473e8455e45dc1529.jpgPilot's last words emerge
All 176 people on board (https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/08/middleeast/plane-crash-victims-iran-intl/index.html) the Boeing 737-800 were killed when the Kiev-bound plane crashed shortly after taking off from Imam Khomeini Airport. The victims include 82 Iranians, 63 Canadians, 11 Ukrainians, 10 Swedes, four Afghans, three Germans and three British nationals.

Iranian authorities are in possession of the two flight data recorders, also known as black boxes, which Prystaiko said Ukrainian investigators have seen but don't have access to. He added that Iran was, however, cooperating, and that he expected Ukraine could "extract and analyze" the data and recordings.

The last words of the pilot were "peaceful and that everything was OK," he said.

Prystaiko said Ukrainian investigators have access to the recording of the conversation between the control tower and the Ukrainian International Airlines crew.

The recent escalated hostilities between the US and Iran have complicated the thorny task of investigating the crash. US government investigators, for example, cannot fly into Tehran and meet with government officials without a license. That prohibition is due to longstanding sanctions rather than the most recent events, according to two US officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

Pompeo and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin announced on Friday that President Donald Trump was authorizing yet more sanctions on Iran.

The Iranian government, which under international protocol has control of the investigation, had earlier said it would not work with the US or Boeing in the probe, but on Friday reversed its position.

If Iranian authorities are unable to reconstruct and analyze the information from the fight data recorders, they said they would seek help from international partners Russia, France, Canada or Ukraine.

Ukrainian investigators were given access to the black boxes on Friday, according to Ukraine's foreign minister, but had yet to start examining the information, which includes recordings of communications between the pilot and Tehran flight control.

[Rated De]

There have been news reports that many of the passengers were leaving Iran for fear of a war. The airplane had been delayed, but finally permitted to depart. Why was it delayed? Why was it important that it depart? What kind of decision-making was in play prior to departure and could there be any relationship to the decision to lock up and launch SAMs? Could there have been multiple Iranian government and military agencies involved with different agendas? Just questions, no assertions. Let’s remember though that solid evidence has not been provided.

Firstly, dual Canadian Iranian citizens, due the sanctions and airspace constraints have, despite the theatre found a way back and forth: That is through Ukraine.
The airport is secure and visiting Iran one quickly realises that western airport "security theatre" is for show.
Delays, with respect to clearances are commonplace, the airport operates 24 hours a day.

Perhaps, as sad as it is a mistake was made.
It is not good optics for Iran to clean up the site, however the USA also obfuscated with the USS Vincennes. Allied pilots shadowing USS Vincennes as it headed back home after the shoot down of Iran Air 655, were incorrectly identified numerous times despite the appropriate IFF responses. Mistakes can and will be made.

The sad thing is there is human cost for all the bellicose rhetoric, when despite the scenes what now emerges were the Swiss embassy in Tehran playing shuttle diplomats conveying messages back and forward.

[dave.rooney]

I'm seeing tweets from various sources (and, as I type this, from western news agencies) saying that Iran state television is now admitting that PS752 was shot down by a missile fired in error.

[Lord Farringdon]

I'm seeing tweets from various sources (and, as I type this, from western news agencies) saying that Iran state television is now admitting that PS752 was shot down by a missile fired in error.
Heres one from the NZ Herald

Iran has announced its military 'unintentionally' shot down a Ukrainian jetliner, killing all 176 aboard.

The statement came Saturday morning local time and blamed "human error" for the shootdown.

The jetliner, a Boeing 737 operated by Ukrainian International Airlines, went down on the outskirts of Tehran during takeoff just hours after Iran launched a barrage of missiles at US forces.

Iran had denied for several days that a missile downed the aircraft. But then the US and Canada, citing intelligence, said they believe Iran shot down the aircraft.

[Titania]

The plane turned on the same route as other planes. They're hiding they had a trigger happy team targeting any plane just for revenge & the hell of it after the US strikes. It was intentional not an error. Pic is accident plane & two of the same flights on previous days.
https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1080x572/fb_img_1578715021803_a972a644a2f039ca3e2ccf5b087e69f654173a5 b.jpg

[India Four Two]

Iran plane crash: Ukrainian jet was 'unintentionally' shot down - state TV
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51073621

[YukonHusky]

After the Civil Aviation Organisation of Iran's dramatic reversal, what's the likelihood the CVR undermined prior explanations regarding UIA's PS752's downing?

[GarageYears]

Well that puts the speculation to bed. And particularly all those trying to come up with convoluted explanations. In this world of billions of smart phones the idea that someone will hit video record when something odd happens should be accepted as normal.

- GY

[pattern_is_full]

Iran 'fessed up. Perhaps "cooperating with the inevitable" - but there are some that never have.

[Airbubba]

After the Civil Aviation Organisation of Iran's dramatic reversal, what's the likelihood the CVR undermined prior explanations regarding UIA's PS752's downing?

One would think that Iran had other indicators like launched SAM's as evidence before the CVR was ever read.

[sheikhthecamel]

If it was brought down by a SAM, it had to have been intentional. These things don't happen by accident in Iran any more than they could ever happen in the US by accident. Any other SAM theory is so absurd, it's sad.

So absurd that the Iranian government has admitted to the accidental shoot-down.

“A sad day. Preliminary conclusions of internal investigation by armed forces: human error at time of crisis caused by US adventurism led to disaster. Our profound regrets, apologies and condolences to our people, to the families of all victims, and to other affected nations.” Iranian foreign minister, Javad Zarif,

[Tokyo Geoff]

Some points from the Iranian statement:

* "human error”
* a promise to bring those who made the mistake to justice and make reforms in its air defence system.
* "Iran’s armed forces were at the highest alert levels to respond to threats by the US president and armed forces to hit back [at] many targets in Iran in case of [Iran’s] retaliation,”
* the aircraft “while turning, looked like getting close to a sensitive military centre of the guards” which radar systems identified as a “hostile object . . . and by human error and unintentionally shot down the plane "

[fox niner]

I have a feeling that this quick outcome was only possible because of the internet. That includes sites such as Bellingcat, Twitter and.....Pprune. Collective kudo’s to all you guys for your persistence.
Apparently in this modern age, you really can not get away with it any more. Too many recording iphones in too many hands. You can not deny the truth forever.
Next: the truth on MH17.

[wheels_down]

Im not overly buying the whole ‘coming close to Military areas...’ line.

Its the main departure route out of the airport. So I assume whoever fired it was one of the imported extras to assist who have never operated in this base/area before and came in with the mindset shoot...shoot...shoot..anything that moves

[nonsense]

There's a world of difference between unintended consequences and foreseeable outcomes. While missiles flying, even missiles flying with innocent victims, was foreseeable, this particular outcome was not.

[UltraFan]

I have to praise the Iranian leadership for their behavior in this unbelivable situation. Only three days after the tragedy they not only admitted their fault but also apologized for it. It is in sharp contrast to US and Ukraine in similar occurrences.

After USS Vincennes shot down Iran Air Flight 655, US denied the fact for years, and still haven't admitted the fault. Even after it was proven that it was the American ship that shot down the plane, the US president said he "won't apologize for America". And, in the most bizzare move, the people who shot down a passenger plane received military awards.

Ukraine shot down Siberia Airlines 1812, denied the fact for years, and still only admits that it "may have" done it.

Kudos to the Iranian government and military who found enough courage to admit their mistake and are planning full investigation.

[Rated De]

I have to praise the Iranian leadership for their behavior in this unbelivable situation. Only three days after the tragedy they not only admitted their fault but also apologized for it. It is in sharp contrast to US and Ukraine in similar occurrences.

After USS Vincennes shot down Iran Air Flight 655, US denied the fact for years, and still haven't admitted the fault. Even after it was proven that it was the American ship that shot down the plane, the US president said he "won't apologize for America". And, in the most bizzare move, the people who shot down a passenger plane received military awards.

Ukraine shot down Siberia Airlines 1812, denied the fact for years, and still only admits that it "may have" done it.

Kudos to the Iranian government and military who found enough courage to admit their mistake and are planning full investigation.

Yes for what comfort it offers the families of those poor folk aboard, at least this offers some sense of understanding and accountability.

Certainly no apologist for the post revolution Iranian "government" but getting in front of this is not only the right thing to do, it also defuses any mileage some of the more nefarious commentators might have tried to make.

[jolihokistix]

Agreed that Iran has come clean on this 'relatively' quickly. Good for them.
In their announcement it still claims that the aircraft 'turned' towards a sensitive military installation. Is there any evidence (that we have not yet seen here) that it turned before the first impact?

[Tegularius]

I have to praise the Iranian leadership for their behavior in this unbelivable situation. Only three days after the tragedy they not only admitted their fault but also apologized for it. It is in sharp contrast to US and Ukraine in similar occurrences.

After USS Vincennes shot down Iran Air Flight 655, US denied the fact for years, and still haven't admitted the fault. Even after it was proven that it was the American ship that shot down the plane, the US president said he "won't apologize for America". And, in the most bizzare move, the people who shot down a passenger plane received military awards.

Ukraine shot down Siberia Airlines 1812, denied the fact for years, and still only admits that it "may have" done it.

Kudos to the Iranian government and military who found enough courage to admit their mistake and are planning full investigation.

That is not correct. We admitted to shooting down the IAF 655 immediately. President Reagan sent a statement expressing deep regrets within days. What was disputed was the legal liability. There were ongoing hostilities. We had taken fire from Iranian gunboats.

[karona]

Agreed that Iran has come clean on this 'relatively' quickly. Good for them.
In their announcement it still claims that the aircraft 'turned' towards a sensitive military installation. Is there any evidence (that we have not yet seen here) that it turned before the first impact?
Flightradar have produced a graphic showing the last departure plotted against previous flights, track and climb vectors are identical. There was nothing 'different' about the flight until the missile hit.
Sorry, can't post the link, search Flightradar24 on Twitter

[clareprop]

I have to praise the Iranian leadership for their behavior in this unbelivable situation. Only three days after the tragedy they not only admitted their fault but also apologized for it.


Yes, but only when they were faced with mounting pressure and incontrovertible evidence. They knew they were responsible within minutes but still tried to cover up.

[fatdeeman]

While I'm glad they have come clean, I think it has more to do with the undeniable amount of video and photo evidence in addition to the missile launches being detected by satellite.

Their very own civil aviation authority was more than happy to outright lie yesterday and claim that it would be impossible for a plane to continue flying after an AAM hit. They were in full on deception mode until they realised there was no getting away with it.

[Twitter]

Not only smartphones can take videos.

There are security cameras and dash cams running pretty continuously, which have picked up previous aircraft incidents and accidents...

As for “coming clean” - the crash site clean up points to another intention - until the last second.

Whether this sad affair and international and national protests might lead to a change in the political situation remains to be seen.

[Tegularius]

The Iranian government certainly deserves no credit for coming clean at this point. What if the United States had shot down, say, an Air France airliner 3 miles out of Chicago's O'Hare, and then denied it for 3 days as evidence mounted, and then only admitted it after the governments of Canada, France, and Britain said they had proof. Would we be applauded for "getting out in front of it"? The Iranians thought they could cover this up and only admitted it when it was clear they could not. Even then they blamed the United States! Unbelievable!

[aox]

Agreed that Iran has come clean on this 'relatively' quickly. Good for them.
In their announcement it still claims that the aircraft 'turned' towards a sensitive military installation. Is there any evidence (that we have not yet seen here) that it turned before the first impact?


Dont know, but will this just below or something like it come to be seen as relevant?

From the Wikipedia article about Iran Air 655, shot down by USS Vincennes in 1988:

When questioned in a 2000 BBC documentary, the U.S. government stated in a written answer that they believed the incident may have been caused by a simultaneous psychological condition amongst the eighteen bridge crew of Vincennes, called "scenario fulfillment", which is said to occur when persons are under pressure. In such a situation, the men will carry out a training scenario, believing it to be reality while ignoring sensory information that contradicts the scenario. In the case of this incident, the scenario was an attack by a lone military aircraft.

[Auxtank]

Well done to all here who stayed their hand on outright speculation and instead, with a cold hard methodical approach analysed the data as it came available.
Well done to the mods who pruned away the idle chatter and bollocks leaving the pertinent posts.
It is what we feared from the beginning - but, like others have said, we may be, in small measure part of the pressure that has forced Iran to admit responsibility.

RIP PS752

[Tegularius]

"Scenario fulfillment" is a good description of what happens. You fall back on your training that you've been drilled on over and over, and that involves following orders automatically. The captain puts together the information and issues the orders which go down the chain of command. The crew does not gather information and then have a debate and a vote.
I can see where punishing the crew that fired the missiles might be satisfying to the outside world but perhaps unjust in the circumstances. They thought they were at war, which was not an unreasonable assumption. Perhaps move the crew to another MOS that doesn't involve lethal weapons. In the case of the 18 crewman do a thorough evaluation, and perhaps break them up into different commands. I would be afraid that they would be too hesitant to launch on another occasion.

[fdr]

There's a world of difference between unintended consequences and foreseeable outcomes. While missiles flying, even missiles flying with innocent victims, was foreseeable, this particular outcome was not.

True, but it should be within the risk analysis of a military to comprehend what is the extent of mayhem that is unleashed with the commencement of action. That goes for all sides.

That there would be retaliation of some form following the targeted assassination of a foreign government person is foreseeable.
That the retaliation response would incur a response was a stated and expected outcome, That resulted in the twitter storm on the matter from one side, discussing action including attacks on cultural sites.
That the missile crew are under stress, and probably fatigued will be highlighted in the investigation.
The missile crews themselves are probable targets for SEAD suppression attacks had the retaliatory response occurred in that area, they had a reason to be concerned.
The spin up time on the missile system is around 8 seconds, not much time to correct a failure in SA arising from any anomalous observation, or any observation that is erroneously assessed as anomalous. In this status, a simple hiccup of a power supply to the ADSB OUT signal would be enough to start off a disastrous response.


A B738 departing from a nearby airport, climbing out at a sedate speed and altitude by no means looks like a air strike, yet, the wreckage stands in mute testament to the failure of the human side of critical decisions made under uncertainty and under stress. It is not unique, it is not dependent on creed, race, religion, it happens because we have humans in the system, and as often as humans are remarkable in their adept handling of complex issues, we collectively fail, and bad stuff happens. The 3C is always frail and limited by the time available to intervene before an irreversible action is taken. The only two ways to avoid these issues is to remove civil traffic from regions of warfare at any level, (not going to happen, that covers more fo the world than not) or to stop wars, which was discounted by Plato, "only the dead have seen the end of war".

This time, it was Irans fearsome error, last time, it was Russia's, the time before, well that was Ukrainian. Going back, past the the USS Vincennes, there was the DC9 off the left coast of Italy, civil planes have been attacked all over the world, Cathay Pacific, KAL (twice) and almost countless others. On too many occasions, the civil aircraft is deliberately targets, as furtherance of some agenda. Many of these aircraft have had sophisticated SSR identifying their status, yet it continues to be disregarded, which remains the fundamental problem, the non combatant status gets lost in the noise.

Unless we quarantine the airspace around hot spots, these events will continue to happen all too often, breaking hearts all round.

[marie paire]

"... had earlier said it would not work with the US or Boeing in the probe, but on Friday reversed its position....."
This is a lie. What they sid is that they ould not hand over the black boxes to Boeing (and the USA?).
Such position is entirely in line with the procedures laid down in ICAO Annex 13..

[Less Hair]

Looks like they immediately fired at it when picking it up. I read somewhere Tor can be set to auto fire mode. As soon as it's radar picks up anything the missiles go off. No button pressing needed, squawk doesn't matter.

Tor M1 handbook (russian):
http://library.voenmeh.ru/cnau/09ZffWX1yllVMet.pdf

[Coborn C6]

...In spite of Iran's world standing I do feel sorry for them and am glad they have finally admitted guilt. Let's leave them to take the appropriate measures and hope the entire situation can be de-escalated.

Although the cause has now been established it is still important for a thorough aircraft accident investigation to be completed. There may yet be findings that are valuable in preventing or reducing the severity of future incidents.

Whether Iran can credibly continue to take the lead on that investigation is highly doubtful, not least when the man leading the responsible organisation was saying only yesterday that science precludes the possibility of a missile strike.

Hopefully another country will now be invited to take over the investigation, particularly the downloading and analysis of the black boxes, and for forensic examination of the surviving wreckage.

[lapp]

Agreed that Iran has come clean on this 'relatively' quickly. Good for them.
In their announcement it still claims that the aircraft 'turned' towards a sensitive military installation. Is there any evidence (that we have not yet seen here) that it turned before the first impact?

Obsviously it didn't, I believe Iran is trying to leverage the fact that "it turned -period-", incidentally toward the base which had been identified very early, and from where with good likeliness the missile was fired.
That just to beef up the excusing factors. Clearly it turned after impact, but the "detail" that it happened as a consequence is left out. Remember their communications are largely destined to be absorbed only domestically.
Then with time this "detail" will lose any importance and become forgotten. Their task ahead is to bring this to closure quickly, so I don't expect they will be to disputing further, now the general attention must be shifted away from this very sad accident.

posted by fox_niners before

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1531x2000/8a37a9a5_e023_4ad6_b43a_c61522bb73ad_f8f16bdb28e5a7383fbe684 ccc013f66bbb8b71a_jpeg_3e6d8dccadbd0c4e43a538d3eb768aa92e779 395.jpg

[AndyJS]

Agreed that Iran has come clean on this 'relatively' quickly. Good for them.
In their announcement it still claims that the aircraft 'turned' towards a sensitive military installation. Is there any evidence (that we have not yet seen here) that it turned before the first impact?

I'm not impressed at all. They should have admitted it immediately, not waited 3 days.

[Teevee]

I'm not impressed at all. They should have admitted it immediately, not waited 3 days.

I am always surprised at the number of people who think 'they' are just the same as us. There have been a couple of enlightening posts on here that have indicated the internal situation in Iran. The illusion of ONE nation is just that, an illusion. Factions just waiting for other factions to slip and concede an advantage which might yield more than just a few extra political points, others maybe literally willing to slip more than a metaphorical knife into someone else's ribs mean that truth and honesty can be double edged and potentially dangerous. Frankly I'm astonished it has only taken three days and am intrigued by what has gone on behind the scenes to facilitate this.,

[andrasz]

One lingering question remains, and hopefully the investigaton will shed some light on this. There appears to be a gap between the last transponder position and the postion of the missile strike. This may of course be easily explained by the known granularity of FR24 data, but in theory it COULD indicate a loss of transponder signal, which under the stressed conditions could have triggered the events.

[parkfell]

One lingering question remains, and hopefully the investigaton will shed some light on this. There appears to be a discrepancy between the last transponder position and the postion of the missile strike. This may of course be easily explained by the known granularity of FR24 data, but in theory it COULD indicate a loss of transponder signal, which under the stressed conditions could have triggered the events.

Would it not be the case that the Air Defence unit be notified by ATC that the aircraft was about to depart on a specified SID.
If this coordination failed to occur, then perhaps you could see how a trigger happy ADU would react?

If the whole truth is ever told, the human factors with sizeable SWISS CHEESE will undoubtedly emerge.

[MFC_Fly]

Then regarding the question about why someone would have been out in the cold early hours with a smartphone ready to film, I think it's very possible that many in Tehran got to know of the Iranian launches, or even if they didn't, they went out to document any possible development, even if that could have been the last thing they did in their life. And they filmed, survived, and shared, we should be thankful.

I think it is much more likely that several people would have been 'out and about' at that time (06:15'ish), returning from salat al-fajr (pre-dawn prayer), which was at 05:44 in Tehran that morning. I am sure several of them would have had their mobile phones with them, possibly in their hand, and possibly several of them would have been using them at the very time. How long does it take people (I am talking the younger generation, not the decrepit old farts like me) to quickly select the camera on a phone that is in their hand and already unlocked, when they see something very out of the ordinary?

[lapp]

There appears to be a discrepancy between the last transponder position and the postion of the missile strike. This may of course be easily explained by the known granularity of FR24 data, but in theory it COULD indicate a loss of transponder signal, which under the stressed conditions could have triggered the events.

I don't think so. IF target tracking / IFF had lost transponder signal after the last plotted point, AND IF this fact alone was enough to trigger, THEN the missile would have been fired at a successive time (order of 10 - 30 secs ?), so the hit point would be more to the West, and the crash site not the same. To me it seems that timing of events is consistent with the hit being very close to the last transponder data.

[SAMXXV]

As an ex SAM operator (for 7 years) I found this very well written set of theories interesting & believable..... https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/31791/lets-talk-about-how-iran-could-have-shot-down-a-737-full-of-innocent-people

[KiloB]

There is a slightly uncomfortable message in this incident regarding the way in which Politicians operate.
From the data they subsequently presented, the American Goverment (and probably the British and Canadian Governments) knew that the Flight had been attacked by a missile(s) within an hour. Despite this their public attitude was “Terrible event, but let’s see what comes of the investigation”. Only when 3rd party information started becoming public on the Web did they release the information they already had.
Presumably this lack of positive action was designed to ‘calm the waters’ after Iran’s earlier Strike. It does show however the extent to which Politicians tell you only what they want you to hear, even under these types of circumstance.

[RTM Boy]

One lingering question remains, and hopefully the investigaton will shed some light on this. There appears to be a gap between the last transponder position and the postion of the missile strike. This may of course be easily explained by the known granularity of FR24 data, but in theory it COULD indicate a loss of transponder signal, which under the stressed conditions could have triggered the events.

It seems this is not a factor - the Iranians are not even attempting to use it as an excuse. According to the report in The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/11/iran-admits-shooting-down-ukrainian-airliner-unintentionally)'The plane was mistaken for a hostile target after it turned towards a sensitive military centre of the Revolutionary Guards, according to the military statement, carried on the official IRNA news agency.

“The military was at its highest level of readiness” amid the heightened tensions with the US, it said, adding: “In such a condition, because of human error and in an unintentional way, the flight was hit.”

The military apologised for the disaster and said it would upgrade its systems to prevent such mistakes in the future. The responsible parties would be referred to a judicial department within the military and held accountable, it said.'

This suggests that both training and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard's missile systems/communications were to blame. FR24 tracking (such as it is) shows the flight was on its normal flight path leaving Imam Khomeini International Airport, which either means the Iranians located a "sensitive military centre" near the normal flight path of a major civilian airport, or that that they are being economical with the actualité. You can make your own mind up on that one.

[RTM Boy]

Obsviously it didn't, I believe Iran is trying to leverage the fact that "it turned -period-", incidentally toward the base which had been identified very early, and from where with good likeliness the missile was fired.
That just to beef up the excusing factors. Clearly it turned after impact, but the "detail" that it happened as a consequence is left out. Remember their communications are largely destined to be absorbed only domestically.
Then with time this "detail" will lose any importance and become forgotten. Their task ahead is to bring this to closure quickly, so I don't expect they will be to disputing further, now the general attention must be shifted away from this very sad accident.

posted by fox_niners before

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1531x2000/8a37a9a5_e023_4ad6_b43a_c61522bb73ad_f8f16bdb28e5a7383fbe684 ccc013f66bbb8b71a_jpeg_3e6d8dccadbd0c4e43a538d3eb768aa92e779 395.jpg
Exactly, it turned AFTER impact. Let us assume that it was hit by one or more SAM missile, or equivalent projectile, depending on point of explosion there is a significant chance that at least part of a wing would have been lost - the fire indicates ruptured fuel tanks - with the consequent impact on the ability of the crew to maintain any flight control, even if they had any control left whatsoever depending on whether the cockpit systems were still viable, or still attached to the rest of the fuselage even (consider Lockerbie). So a significant deviation of flight path as the plane descended towards the ultimate crash site is to be expected.

[ele]

Atakacs, as regards the Itavia case (I was a small kid at that time, it was 1980, middle of the Cold War, in a VERY different world from today, pre-Internet) actually Francesco Cossiga (Italian PM and even president of the Italian Republic) stated very clearly in 2007 that the flight was downed by a French missile, and that France wasn't absolutely willing to cooperate.
As for the rest... I absolutely agree with MFC Fly. The dawn prayer is considered of crucial importance in the day, and throughout the Muslim world you are typically waken up by the adhan (very loud call for prayer on loudspeakers, all over cities/towns, you will be waken up inside your hotel room) at 05:30, or similar... like it's broad daylight. People are going to the mosque, or praying at home, but it's like: "the day has started".

[andrasz]

As an ex SAM operator (for 7 years) I found this very well written set of theories interesting & believable..... https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/31791/lets-talk-about-how-iran-could-have-shot-down-a-737-full-of-innocent-people
Very good knowledgabe link, thanks for sharing. Sounds very plausible.

[pchapman]

As an ex SAM operator (for 7 years) I found this very well written set of theories interesting & believable..... https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/31791/lets-talk-about-how-iran-could-have-shot-down-a-737-full-of-innocent-people

That seemed a reasonable article -- Yes people who are all keyed up for incoming enemy air strikes might well make mistakes.
In a similar vein, one article I heard of mentions other Iranian SAM and AA control problems -- shooting at their own forces -- while all keyed up for war, although it seems to be talking more about the 2007-2008 era, just after Israel bombed their nuclear facility:
https://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/03/world/middleeast/wary-of-israel-iran-is-said-to-blunder-in-strikes.html
And as has been pointed out 'the best trained & best equipped' may fail too, as in the USS Vincennes.

One still wonders why this particular flight got targeted, when airliners had already been taking off from the airport through the early hours of the morning, and the base has always been close to airline departure routes. That's where the Iranian government start blaming the airliner for 'coming close to' or 'turning towards' the military facilty, even though the flight path seems no different than of all the other airliners. New morning shift at the SAM battery? Some equipment malfunction there? There was also that speculation that the airliner actually had some problem and started turning back (= towards the military facility) before the shooting started, without contacting ATC first, but I guess that is unlikely and probably can be ruled out by better analysis of the tracks & other events.

[FideJJ]

Still there's a lot of investigating need to be done and precisely explained how this mistake could have happened. Then it's proven it wasn't intentional. Don't give me plane did this or that, turned whatever, when there's absolutely nothing unusual about the flight behavior. Delayed little less than 1 hr that's hardly unusual. Lack of any common sense to double-check it's not a civilian aircraft when you are right next to the airport. And dozen ways to do so, even looking at the sky - they all failed. Why?

[fdr]

On the location of the TLAR for the launch:

The video has the sound of what appears to be the booster of the 9m331 missile, similar to the sound of the test firing in 2007 by the Iranians. That precludes the launch location being the berm area of the site to the WNW of the aircraft. From the prepared site, the missile noise would have been received after the impact, not before. The site of the launcher at firing has to be proximate to the observer, and to the west of them. That location would pick up the aircraft coming into view on the initial climb out of the airport, and on a track that would be offset from the direct to launcher bearing by a small angle, it would be attention getting if you are anxiously awaiting an inbound wild weasel HARM launch. Early on, the built up area may mask the primary target and even possibly the SSR ID, so could be seen as a pop up, leading to a snap shot (takes out ADSB?), and the follow up which is then captured on video.

launcher location may be a significant factor to the decision to launch by the SAM crew.

FDR

[ManaAdaSystem]

There is a slightly uncomfortable message in this incident regarding the way in which Politicians operate.
From the data they subsequently presented, the American Goverment (and probably the British and Canadian Governments) knew that the Flight had been attacked by a missile(s) within an hour. Despite this their public attitude was “Terrible event, but let’s see what comes of the investigation”. Only when 3rd party information started becoming public on the Web did they release the information they already had.
Presumably this lack of positive action was designed to ‘calm the waters’ after Iran’s earlier Strike. It does show however the extent to which Politicians tell you only what they want you to hear, even under these types of circumstance.

Or they simply decided to wait and let the Irani government dig its own hole.

[unworry]

If his pictures show a real stamp from Iran, his comment is spot on. If not, it’s bad taste.

According to the wikipedia page for Iran Air Flight 644 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655#Aftermath), it depicts "a 45 rial postage stamp released by Iran on 11 August 1988 titled Disastrous U.S. missile attack against Iranian air liner."

[foxcharliep2]

If his pictures show a real stamp from Iran, his comment is spot on. If not, it’s bad taste.

The stamp is legit and real, it was issued 11 August 1988 by Iran.

Scroll down and check : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655

[ManaAdaSystem]

The stamp is legit and real, it was issued 11 August 1988 by Iran.

Scroll down and check : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655

Karma at work. We could sure do without it, but it is a severe slap in the Irani government face.

[SASless]

There was no collateral damage during the Baghdad Airport strike......none.

It was done in a manner so there would be no collateral damage.

If you wish to claim collateral damage for the shoot down of the airliner.....then you would have to point the finger at the Iranians as it was Iranian forces that launched the miissiles, ballistic missiles first then the SAM's.

The US Military did not respond to those attacks and certainly fired no weapons.

So....ya'll that want to talk collateral damage....how do you blame the USA when they fired no weapons inside Iran and no where near Tehran?

Come on guys....get real!

[MFC_Fly]

One thing that has always bothered me, maybe others could shed some light on it...

We have seen photos of the crash site that show wreckage from the tail, wings, fuselage, engines, undercarriage, etc, etc.
We have seen maps showing where the various parts were found on the ground.
But I have not seen any photos or maps showing anything of the front of the aircraft, i.e. the flight deck, windscreens, etc. Where are they?

[Auxtank]

One thing that has always bothered me, maybe others could shed some light on it...

We have seen photos of the crash site that show wreckage from the tail, wings, fuselage, engines, undercarriage, etc.etc. We have seen maps showing where the various parts were found on the ground. But I have not seen any photos or maps showing anything of the front of the aircraft, i.e. the flight deck, windscreens, etc. Where are they?

I was wondering that but the cockpit windows were shown on BBC News today - the Ukrainian investigators used a photo of it to illustrate where the first missile hit (directly below the cockpit) and how, sadly, this would have killed the pilots instantly leading to no further ATC comms.
It's an un-nerving picture to look at.

[ManaAdaSystem]

One thing that has always bothered me, maybe others could shed some light on it...

We have seen photos of the crash site that show wreckage from the tail, wings, fuselage, engines, undercarriage, etc, etc.
We have seen maps showing where the various parts were found on the ground.
But I have not seen any photos or maps showing anything of the front of the aircraft, i.e. the flight deck, windscreens, etc. Where are they?

I’ve seen a picture of the right side of the cockpit, including the outside handle for opening the cockpit window.

[liider]

Cockpit picture
https://g1.nh.ee/images/pix/900x1200/MzOjt0Ufv4M/8f7d95e19cc1fbb9ce-88623339.jpg

[Hot 'n' High]

According to the wikipedia page for Iran Air Flight 644, it's "a 45 rial postage stamp released by Iran on 11 August 1988 titled Disastrous U.S. missile attack against Iranian air liner."An interesting thread on the use of such stamps in the region. Sadly, nothing on the historic origins of the stamps themselves, just on the collector who left Iran at the overthrow of the Shah.

Back to topic, whatever the cause of the tragic launch(es), Iran have come clean very quickly, particularly given the “fog of war” and the confusion that must have immediately followed this sad event - and commendably so. More than can be said of the Russians over MH17. I think the Iranian Government are dealing with an awful accident. MH17, while possibly through miss-identification as well, was the victim of a much more involved, shadowy plot. So, credit where credit is due – hard as it will be for all those who have lost loved ones/friends, at least it looks like some degree of closure is swiftly becoming available.

RIP to all ….. and may mankind learn … again!
.

[ORAC]

http://www.tehrantimes.com/news/444012/I-wished-death-after-realizing-Ukrainian-passenger-plane-had

TEHRAN – Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force, said on Saturday that after he became “confident” that the Ukrainian passenger plane had been shot down erroneously by the Iranian air defense system “I wished death”.

The passenger plane, with 179 people aboard, was mistakenly downed on Wednesday morning. It happened a few hours after Iran fired dozens of missiles at the U.S. airbase inside Iraq in retaliation for the assassination of Iranian Lieutenant General Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad on January 3.

Hajizadeh said he was in western Iran when the incident happened.

“I will accept all the responsibilities for this incident,” he told a press conference.

He added, “We will obey any decision by officials.”

[MFC_Fly]

Cockpit picture
https://g1.nh.ee/images/pix/900x1200/MzOjt0Ufv4M/8f7d95e19cc1fbb9ce-88623339.jpg

Thank you, the first I have seen

[Tetsuo]

Cockpit picture
https://g1.nh.ee/images/pix/900x1200/MzOjt0Ufv4M/8f7d95e19cc1fbb9ce-88623339.jpg
From this it appears to me that they started to assemble parts of the Airframe on a separate site. Note the remaining wreckage in the background on the left. Investigation perhaps?

[Auxtank]

From this it appears to me that they started to assemble parts of the Airframe on a separate site. Note the remaining wreckage in the background on the left. Investigation perhaps?

I believe - from the BBC News report earlier - that those gentlemen are part of the Ukrainian investigation party and indeed that photo was taken by one of the investigators interviewed for the BBC report.

[lomapaseo]

You probably are. I am no fan of a trump at all, but the tension and bad feeling started well before Trump. It began decades ago. But more recently don’t forget the Americans that were killed by Iranian militia. Or the oil tankers. Or the Saudi oil fields. Be under no illusion this is not trumps fault. But both sides can go back many years with claim and counter claim. This isn’t one persons fault. This is deep seated hatred and distrust.

The main lesson in this is, if airlines won’t stop operating into war zones then the regulators need to do their jobs and take steps preemptively to prevent this kind of thing from happening. They need to grow some balls and as soon as tensions rise ban flights. That was a sudden escalation won’t catch people out.

Regulators don't regulate between nations.
ICAO agreements. , also don't regulate, they only provide a framework for like minded compliance.
In the end it's up to the laws in the nation to decide what gets regulated in the civilian world (but this was a military action).

I'm afraid that the airline itself was ignorant of the high-level-of-tension in the Iranian military at that hour. For this we need a fix

[aox]

On another forum, someone claimed to have seen photos of the cockpit area, with evident shrapnel damage.

I asked a question about this, was this new or an interpretation of previously seen photos, and someone else replied.

https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/iran-foreign-minister-a-sad-day-our-profound-regrets-apologies-and-condolences.html?cn-reloaded=1 (https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/iran-foreign-minister-a-sad-day-our-profound-regrets-apologies-and-condolences.html?cn-reloaded=1)

https://www.kyivpost.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/81662654_1862699300541595_2984793840252092416_o.jpg

(same photo as posted here a few minutes ago, while I was getting this)

[Distant Voice]

Less Hair said "Looks like they immediately fired at it when picking it up. I read somewhere Tor can be set to auto fire mode. As soon as it's radar picks up anything the missiles go off. No button pressing needed, squawk doesn't matter"

Yes, that is what I have read. Although the that should only happen if an unfriendly (or no return) was detected by the IFF system.

DV

[canyonblue737]

Back to topic, whatever the cause of the tragic launch(es), Iran have come clean very quickly, particularly given the “fog of war” and the confusion that must have immediately followed this sad event - and commendably so. More than can be said of the Russians over MH17. I think the Iranian Government are dealing with an awful accident. MH17, while possibly through miss-identification as well, was the victim of a much more involved, shadowy plot. So, credit where credit is due – hard as it will be for all those who have lost loved ones/friends, at least it looks like some degree of closure is swiftly becoming available.

RIP to all ….. and may mankind learn … again!
.

its laughable to think the highest levels of the Iranian government weren’t aware of the shoot down within hours of the tragedy. It just took 3 days to calculate if there was any realistic way of hiding the reality. That the truth has come out and an apology extended is a good thing for closure but let’s go easy on the praise of any nation after they kill hundreds of defenseless civilians.

[OldnGrounded]

I wish that even after now admitting that it was a missile strike, they would not still try and introduce an element of justification . . .


That's pretty much what responsible parties and their national media tend to do.

In the wake of the shootdown of Iran Air 655, a political scientist at George Washington University published a study* comparing US media coverage of the Soviet shootdown of KAL 007 with the Vincennes' downing of the Iranian flight. He found that in the case of KAL, "the angle taken by the US media emphasized the moral bankruptcy and guilt of the perpetrating nation. With Iran Air 655, the frame de-emphasised guilt and focused on the complex problems of operating military high technology." It's a pretty interesting piece of research.

* Robert M Entman, ‘Framing US coverage of international news: Contrasts in narratives of the KAL and Iran Air incidents’ in Journal of Communication, vol 41, no 4, Washington DC, December 1991.

Newsweek covers related to the two incidents:

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/385x259/newsweek_compare_2e479b3546463c30bc750bbf61bbae773023fe41.jp g

This past summer, Le Monde Diplomatique ran an article that seems on-point in relation to this discussion and citing the above-referenced study*: US and Iran, Short Memories (https://mondediplo.com/2019/08/02us-iran)

[Airbubba]

From the Kyiv Post link above:

A statement by the Iranian Armed Forces on Jan. 11 said the plane was mistakenly shot after it changed course and started flying towards a military base. The statement blamed hostile U.S. military actions for a state of heightened alert, but also acknowledged the need for “fundamental reforms” to prevent such an occurrence in the future. It also promised a full report and to hold accountable those responsible for the loss of life.

Here’s a rough translation of the statement:

“The noble and revolutionary Iranian Islamic nation,

In the wake of the heartbreaking crash of a Boeing passenger plane, a Ukrainian airline that crashed in the early hours of Wednesday morning (Jan. 8), in the wake of a missile attack on the U.S. base of criminals and the possible impact of military action on the incident, the Armed Forces immediately set up an inspection team composed of technical and operational experts, independent of the State Aviation Authority, to investigate this possibility, and the results of the round-the-clock review are made available to the Honorable Iranian People:

1. Following the threats of President (Donald J. Trump) and the criminal America’s military commanders targeting a large number of targets in the territory of the Islamic Republic of Iran, in the event of a counter-operation and in view of the unprecedented increase in air traffic in the region, the Islamic Republic of Iran’s armed forces were prepared to respond to possible threats at the highest level.

2. In the hours after the missile strikes, US terrorist forces’ warplanes around the country increased, and some reports of airstrikes targeting strategic centers in the country were reported to numerous defense units and targets on some radar plates. Caused greater sensitivity in air defense complexes.

3. In such critical and critical conditions, Flight PS752 of the Ukrainian airlines departs from Imam Khomeini (https://www.irna.ir/news/83485441) Airport and, while in rotation, is completely approaching a sensitive military center of the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps and at altitude and in form of a hostile flight. In these circumstances, the plane was accidentally hit by human error and, unfortunately, which unfortunately results in the martyrdom of dear compatriots and the death of a number of foreign nationals.

4. The Armed Forces staff, while expressing condolences and sympathy to the grieving families of other countries and the apologies for the human error, giving full assurance that the pursuit of fundamental reforms in the operational processes at the Armed Forces level can be repeated. Make such errors impossible and immediately report the culprit to the Armed Forces Judicial Organization in order to deal with any legal errors.

5. It was also announced that the relevant authorities in the Revolutionary Guards should, as soon as possible, present detailed explanations to the people of Iran.”


Apologies if these three related questions have already been answered elsewhere.

1 The Iranians claim the flight was overflying a sensitive military area. Is it marked on the charts? I can hardly imagine the SID would have taken it there. Does the ADS-B data show the flight deviating from the SID?

Here's the SID posted earlier in the thread by SA Brit. It looks to me like they were probably flying the PAROT 2H which does swing by the military areas mapped on other posts here.

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/771x1305/d649d2f9_8768_449d_88fb_f3fe02f5e52a_5f61748b6754b97d22f33a3 722c3b78e9bfb3533_jpeg_6768c900a19ba07cdcfb79bcc42b0d88a04b7 999.jpg

And as FR24 posted in their blog (which was later picked up by the New York Times), other flights before the shootdown had similar departure paths.

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/2000x1130/ika_dep_up_to_ps752_9fb7ff56ea5a5b9ab8bd870f2c4749a1efcaae1b .jpg

[dave.rooney]

The ADS-B transmissions likely stopped because damage from the missile's warhead disconnected the transponder from the GPS antenna that it uses (from earlier in this thread). If that was indeed the case, VHF communications would likely have been affected as well, which explains why there was no mayday or any other call from the crew. That picture of the cockpit and front section of the aircraft suggests that the missile did NOT detonate on the port side, although it's not really possible from the picture to say definitively that it exploded on the starboard side. That said, it would be consistent with the scenario of losing #2 engine with a resulting turn to the right. If the crew hadn't been incapacitated (or killed outright like MH17), they would also probably have continued the right turn in an attempt to return to the airport.

Given that the plane was flying at 275 knots and the missile was likely fired at it head on, it would make sense that the detonation occurred somewhere just aft of the cockpit, severing the connections to communications antennas and probably destroying #2 engine. There was likely a hydraulic system problem as well, and possibly a wing fuel tank puncture and fire.

I haven't posted enough to put a pic in here (or an URL), but you can see the 737-800 antenna locations at w w w.b737.org.uk/images/antennalocations_ng.gif

[Lonewolf_50]

Hold on cowboy ! It just might be the case that the investigators need to confirm that the downing of the aircraft by a missile is the ONLY issue in the downing of the aircraft. Bear in mind that there have been some very sensible questions raised about possible issues before the hit. Until these questions are clarified NOTHING "is just debris". Not sure why you think someone whose location is listed as Hyderabad, India (https://www.pprune.org/members/481356-nomad2) is a cowboy, ;) ... but I think you are right in advocating for a thorough investigation which may shed light on issues related to the accident.
Which issues do you feel most need answering?
Could you list your top 5 things related to what may be found in the wreckage - now that the ultimate factor, accidental missile launch, is confirmed - that you feel may be contributing factors? While the CVR and FDR may hold some revelations in systems performance, or lack thereof, facts which are to date unknown, those boxes have been declared as found. (And I'll guess useful/readable)

I'll offer a few things that I think may be of interest to those operating in this region that are probably outside the scope of a material investigation angle:

Any change in insurability?
Alerts, risk assessments and decisions in airspace over areas where tensions ratchet up.
Given that there was traffic (departures) before this event, what kind of warning or notification would have led to the crew doing something different? (I take it as a given that most airline companies have little to no way to change how a local military does things)

Mr Rooney's link from a few posts up: http://www.b737.org.uk/images/antennalocations_ng.gif

[AnglianAV8R]

@Lonewolf_50 "Cowboy" was banter mode engaged ;) As for what they might want to find..My thoughts on this are that the investigators would seek to clarify that the aircraft and systems were functioning correctly prior/up to the moment they took the hit. In other words, a process of deduction. The aim being to ensure nothing important is overlooked. My investigation experience is not aviation related, but processes have similarities in terms of the basic approach. The bottom line, from my experience, is that nothing "is just debris" until all possible causes/issues have been ruled either in or out.

[MPN11]

There's a 'something' 307º/13.5 nm from the rw end ... could that be the 'sensitive site'? Can't post Google Earth image, for some reason. Fairly close to the SID, though.

35º33'40.80"N 50º53'54.42"E

[Airbubba]

There's a 'something' 307º/13.5 nm from the rw end ... could that be the 'sensitive site'? Can't post Google Earth image, for some reason. Fairly close to the SID, though.

35º33'40.80"N 50º53'54.42"E

I think that is indeed the site of the 'missile research facility'.

Here's Babak Taghvaee's map of the points of interest from a couple of days ago. He's nailed the specifics of this crash from the gitgo from what I can see.

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/2000x1709/en2lomjxkaatrun_58abce60982da07896f1a7602b3564fae6e7c0af.jpg

[Hot 'n' High]

its laughable to think the highest levels of the Iranian government weren’t aware of the shoot down within hours of the tragedy. It just took 3 days to calculate if there was any realistic way of hiding the reality. That the truth has come out and an apology extended is a good thing for closure but let’s go easy on the praise of any nation after they kill hundreds of defenseless civilians.I quite agree with you CB737 that, ultimately, it should not have happened and the apology could have been quicker. I was simply making the observation that certain other nations who, one might hope to be more “up front” in such cases are consistently as bad/worse – Moscow & Putin for example – where denial is just routine even in the light of significant/overwhelming evidence such as MH17 or Salisbury. And the Russians seem to be a lot more pre-meditated!

Given how such ME governments operate (and the fear of possible and extreme punishment that may await those who were at the LCP and in the chain of command leading away from that LCP will probably have hampered the flow of information), the “fog of war” so created no doubt added to delay in “owning up” to what I suspect was a genuine mistake. The Iranian government was probably caught completely off guard themselves. Knowing something has happened is one thing; getting heads round it is something else. But they “owned up"; the reasons for "owning up" may be cynical or otherwise – who knows what conversations were had in the upper echelons. However, to those affected, it may mean some closure at least within quite a short timescale, certainly compared to MH17.

But, it seems, one also has to ask yet more questions regarding flights generally within/over nations involved in such conflicts – particularly if there has been recent, rather obvious, provocation. That major lesson was brought out in Section 9.4 of the MH17 shoot-down Report by the Dutch; that of requiring adequate risk assessment. It's trying to define what "adequate" is which is the real problem - and I guess we'll never have it 100%. Perhaps some weighting of variables such as "robustness of chain of command" may have to be reviewed in the light of this sad event. Yet again, the fact you may be a bystander in any conflict is absolutely no guarantee of safety in a world of confusion and human fallibility! Time to dust that risk assessment criteria down again in many Airline Boardrooms?

[SASless]

Whoa.....public protests by Iranians in Iran calling for the Regime's Leaders to step down.....now who would have guessed.

They are asking why the Iranian Government did not shut down Iranian Airspace due to the situation ongoing.

It would appear lots of people are wanting some answers from the Ayatollahs.

http://news.trust.org/item/20200111165001-pawh6

[Gove N.T.]

Inevitably there will be a compensation payout which will not compensate adequately for the loss of loved ones.
Perhaps a more fitting response by the leaders of Iran would also include decision to cease its destabilising role in the Middle East. To know that a loved one’s death helped bring about a change in the outlook there might be a lasting legacy. One can only hope their deaths are not measured just in dollars and cents

[MPN11]

I think that is indeed the site of the 'missile research facility'.

Here's Babak Taghvaee's map of the points of interest from a couple of days ago. He's nailed the specifics of this crash from the gitgo from what I can see.

Ah, I was too slow! Thanks anyway.

[Auxtank]

It was following an established SID (Parot 3G). Other earlier departing aircraft had followed very similar tracks.
So the question is; why didn't the missile system's IFF correctly interpret the ADB-S squawk as civilian as opposed to a potential hostile?
Sorry if a bl**dy silly question.

[WillowRun 6-3]

Trying a swing at what Lonewolf_50 asked about objectives in examining wreckage:
Not taking issue with premise that missile launch was accidental (not questioning the premise here, that is). Also not going into particular elements of the many - and sometimes varied - subject areas AIB reports usually reach.
Instead this incident appears as one which justifies, as well as demands, a complete investigatory work-up and report, even though some key questions won't be addressed (as earlier posts observed). If there is going to be a stronger push for realistic and still meaningful methods to address conflict zones much more effectively, having as full an Annex 13 process and resulting report very likely will be critically important. Certain ICAO Member States could, quite predictably, raise objections (fake or not) about stronger CZ initiatives. With a good, strong and complete Annex 13 process and report in one's briefcase, these cycical objectors could be told to pound sand -- though in the nicey-nice politesse of diplomats' lexicons, of course!

[CargoOne]

I guess there is little to no value for civil aviation to continue this investigation, everyone just better save efforts and money for the next occasion. To save multinational investigation a year and a few million bucks I can draft the safety recommendations here:
1) commission recommends to avoid flight operations within active war risk areas in order to reduce probability of being shot down by air defence

[Auxtank]

At these SAM launchers, are the operators basing their information on radar data only or also observation of the outside surroundings? Just wondering, several aircraft departed that night, likely using the IKA PAROT SID's. SOP used by most airlines is having landing lights ON below 10.000 ft. within an airport terminal area for enhanced visibility to surrounding air traffic. Any outside observer looking from the launcher site almost head on towards the approaching Ukrainian airliner at 8.000 ft (on a standard SID), the aircraft would have been visible with its landing lights still ON below 10.000 ft.

Good point G-d and one I had thought about. It was CAVOK so lights would have been easily visible. Can't believe a bloke on a SAM vehicle hasn't got a pair of binos in his equipment.
The other consideration is that it would have been at 250 KIAS or less until 10,000' (not sure of transition Alt) - hardly a fast moving hostile coming in for it's run.

[Airbubba]

It was following an established SID (Parot 3G).

The PAROT 3G has the plane maintain runway course of 285 degrees for 17 nautical miles outbound from the IKA VOR. I don't think any of the plotted flights did that. It looks to me like the planes were probably flying the PAROT 2H with a right turn after takeoff to intercept the IKA 305 degree radial outbound to PAROT intersection.

The other consideration is that it would have been at 250 KIAS or less until 10,000' (not sure of transition Alt) - hardly a fast moving hostile coming in for it's run.

You can find the transition altitude, 9000 feet, at the top of the SID chart. It's been a long time since I've flown out of Tehran but many places in the Middle East don't have the 250 knots below 10000 feet speed restriction, or, if they do, you can request 'high speed' and it will be waived.

[Auxtank]

The PAROT 3G has the plane maintain runway course of 285 degrees for 17 nautical miles outbound from the IKA VOR. I don't think any of the plotted flights did that. It looks to me like the planes were probably flying the PAROT 2H with a right turn after takeoff to intercept the IKA 305 degree radial outbound to PAROT intersection.

Yep, Airbubba - all the plots from the aircrafts seem to make the turn earlier than the Parot 3G inbound to D17.0 IKA (on the 316 outbound radial from RUS) but later than they would if on the Parot 2H.

[Auxtank]

It would be interesting to hear the IFR clearance dialogue with Ground/ TWR/ if audio exists.

[Green-dot]

Somehow my original post regarding landing lights ON below 10.000' has been removed. Any assumed "cruise missile" in the area would certainly not have any such lights . . . . . .

[dave.rooney]

Good point G-d and one I had thought about. It was CAVOK so lights would have been easily visible. Can't believe a bloke on a SAM vehicle hasn't got a pair of binos in his equipment.
The other consideration is that it would have been at 250 KIAS or less until 10,000' (not sure of transition Alt) - hardly a fast moving hostile coming in for it's run.

Consider the conditions under which the AA missiles were launched. The Iranian ballistic missiles were fired on the Iraqi bases around 3AM local time. The people manning the Tor-M1 would be hunkered down inside the vehicle waiting for an American counterstrike at any moment, especially since they were in the vicinity (and probably guarding) a ballistic missile research centre. It was 6:18AM local when they fired on PS752. Any American response would come before daybreak (sunrise in Tehran is around 7:15AM right now). The Tor-M1 would have it's search radar on, which would be a massive beacon screaming out "blow me up!" to any SEAD aircraft.

PS752 was over an hour late taking off, and it's not outside the realm of possibility that they thought that perhaps an American fighter was mimicking an airliner by flying slow with its transponder on. It was on a course that would take it right over that ballistic missile facility, which would be a logical target after the Iranian missile strike.

With all of those contributing factors and the stress of knowing that they'd probably be a prime first target, I could see how someone would be scared enough to fire at that blip on the screen.

[Richard W]

It was following an established SID (Parot 3G). Other earlier departing aircraft had followed very similar tracks.
So the question is; why didn't the missile system's IFF correctly interpret the ADB-S squawk as civilian as opposed to a potential hostile?
The squawk could be spoofed.

[Auxtank]

Somehow my original post regarding landing lights ON below 10.000' has been removed. Any assumed "cruise missile" in the area would certainly not have any such lights . . . . . .

Don't panic G-d, I quoted your post in full in my reply - it's the mods pruning down to keep the thread at a sensible level of posts. Kind of makes sense.

[konradb]

I take it that GPS in the area is reliable and the ADS-B can be relied on, as I have been told that there are areas around Iran, just like places in the Baltic, where GPS can be spoofed / degraded?

[gums]

Salute!

Looks like takwis, Mozella and gums have had posts deleted today since 0900 CST, and none had half of the hearsay, ethnic/cultural innuendo or state secret info many here have posted. There was also a post by a SAM operator, 7 years experience, related to the topic. Cannot find it now at 1355 CST/1955 UTC

Who knows, some pilot reading here might get a clue as to how to avoid being shot down by a missile on day or night.

Gums sends...

[Out Of Trim]

There was no collateral damage during the Baghdad Airport strike......none.

It was done in a manner so there would be no collateral damage.

If you wish to claim collateral damage for the shoot down of the airliner.....then you would have to point the finger at the Iranians as it was Iranian forces that launched the miissiles, ballistic missiles first then the SAM's.

The US Military did not respond to those attacks and certainly fired no weapons.

So....ya'll that want to talk collateral damage....how do you blame the USA when they fired no weapons inside Iran and no where near Tehran?

Come on guys....get real!
I remember an early report, stating that after the Iranian ballistic missile strikes. That at least 6 F-35s got airborne from their UAE base. So, where were they headed and on what mission? Maybe that was why the SAM defences were so jumpy!

[Richard W]

I take it that GPS in the area is reliable and the ADS-B can be relied on, as I have been told that there are areas around Iran, just like places in the Baltic, where GPS can be spoofed / degraded?
I meant spoofed to lie about identity. For example, a drone might claim to be an airliner that should be in the vicinity. Therefore, one would need to check a claim to be an airliner, e.g. using position and velocity.

I've noticed that the IRGs' acceptance of responsibility included a statement that communications weren't functioning properly. That could be the critical breakdown in safeguards - it could even make the one hour delay in take-off the critical hole in the system.

[aerobelly]

Salute!

Looks like takwis, Mozella and gums have had posts deleted today since 0900 CST, and none had half of the hearsay, ethnic/cultural innuendo or state secret info many here have posted. There was also a post by a SAM operator, 7 years experience, related to the topic. Cannot find it now at 1355 CST/1955 UTC
.

gums,

SAMXXV's post is #402 in this topic. direct link here:

https://www.pprune.org/10659991-post402.html

'a

[Lonewolf_50]

Not taking issue with premise that missile launch was accidental (not questioning the premise here, that is).
Also not going into particular elements of the many - and sometimes varied - subject areas AIB reports usually reach.

Instead this incident appears as one which justifies, as well as demands, a complete investigatory work-up and report, even though some key questions won't be addressed (as earlier posts observed).
If there is going to be a stronger push for realistic and still meaningful methods to address conflict zones much more effectively, having as full an Annex 13 process and resulting report very likely will be critically important.
Certain ICAO Member States could, quite predictably, raise objections (fake or not) about stronger CZ initiatives.
With a good, strong and complete Annex 13 process and report in one's briefcase, these cynical objectors could be told to pound sand -- though in the nicey-nice politesse of diplomats' lexicons, of course! I broke up your wall of text and have a modest response to your response to me. :)
The investigation must be, as far as possible, decoupled from the ongoing political bruhaha. Not sure how successfully the states concerned will be able to manage that. Here's hoping.

Concur that the better the report, the better a tool to use for future initiatives. (Did not the AF 447 report lead to some training changes?)

Addressing conflict zones vis a vis ICAO and Annex 13: with any multinational agreement, the means of "enforcement" and "implementation" are subject to the desires of the various signatory states ... but it won't hurt to try again. I will caveat that with how nebulous "conflict zones" is as a term, and that any operator is going to have their own risk calculus and expectations. I don't think improvements to ICAO, such as they may be made, will ever change that. (MH17 case, IIRC, included a situation where some other airlines were not flying over that area due to the conflict/tensions present)

Those who fly comercially in the Mid East for the past two decades have to have some kind of risk assessment tool given how things flare up in that region with some frequency. The question to me, then, isn't so much the presence of a tool or a process, but more in how decisions get made within a given organization's culture.

And lastly, incomplete information is endemic to any risk assessment process. If we look at this case, where the selection of the ballistic missile strikes were chosen for "quiet time" (for a variety of sound reasons IMO) the amount of information offered up in the open, and in a timeline helpful to decision makers, may be shown to be impractical. Military operations in the modern / information age are beginning to have their 'information release' packages bundled with the operation itself; which means that an outsider (in an airline company for example) will at best have incomplete information (only what little the operators release) that is pre spun for political purposes.

The decisions makers in the risk office have a hell of a challenge to deal with. And for Captains on a given day, that challenge is at least an order of magnitude higher - the information they will have is subject to further filtering and/or incompleteness.

[JumpJumpJump]

I guess there is little to no value for civil aviation to continue this investigation, everyone just better save efforts and money for the next occasion. To save multinational investigation a year and a few million bucks I can draft the safety recommendations here:
1) commission recommends to avoid flight operations within active war risk areas in order to reduce probability of being shot down by air defence

How does your fantastic plan allow for people to leave active or near active warzones. Do you recommend that people drive or walk to neighbouring states in order to repatriate themselves?

[Airbubba]

Does anyone know which other operators departed Tehran and flew this departure between the time when missiles were launched to US bases in Iraq and maybe an hour or two after the Ukrainian aircraft came to grief?

It appears that Lufthansa, Turkish, Aeroflot, Qatar, Iran Air and a couple of others operated out in those hours.

Here's a list of January 8 departures from IKA as listed on FlightAware. It does appear that the eastbound flights did follow roughly the same track. Times out are local Tehran time.

From the BBC:

Two Iraqi bases housing US and coalition troops were targeted, one at Al Asad and one in Irbil, at about 02:00 local time on Wednesday (22:30 GMT on Tuesday). It came just hours after the burial of Soleimani, who controlled Iran's proxy forces across the Middle East.

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1480x699/ika_dep_ea630d9e900c618db5bc53fcbcbcb53817c68e36.jpg

[visibility3miles]

liider

Cockpit picture
https://g1.nh.ee/images/pix/900x1200...e-88623339.jpg (https://g1.nh.ee/images/pix/900x1200/MzOjt0Ufv4M/8f7d95e19cc1fbb9ce-88623339.jpg)

Why is the exterior mostly black? Pictures of Ukraine Airlines show a white exterior in the front half of the plane.

[Airbubba]

A report that the UK ambassador to Iran was arrested and held for several hours for organizing destructive protests against the downing of the Ukrainian 737. Was this really the ambassador or is there some faulty translation? Or more fake news?

From Iran's Tasim News via Google Translate:

British ambassador at Amir Kabir University arrestedThe British ambassador to Tehran was detained for hours after being detained for organizing suspicious movements at Amir Kabir University and then released.

1 January - 1:50

During a gathering today, a group of people were detained for hours in front of Amir Kabir University, the British ambassador to Tehran, who was in the midst of a rally to organize, instigate and direct some radical and destructive actions.

He was told about the protest after his arrest. The ambassador was released hours later but is said to be summoned and prosecuted tomorrow.

Informed sources told Tasnim that a shop in front of Amir Kabir University was the main site of the British ambassador's coordination.

End of message /


https://www.tasnimnews.com/fa/news/1398/10/22/2179852/سفیر-انگلیس-مقابل-دانشگاه-امیرکبیر-دستگیر-شد

[TEEEJ]

liider

Why is the exterior mostly black? Pictures of Ukraine Airlines show a white exterior in the front half of the plane.

That will be soot from the fire. Note the windscreen.

[gearlever]

Seems to be true....

British ambassador Robert Macaire arrested (https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/breaking-british-ambassador-robert-macaire-21262966)

[Airbubba]

Probably minor news compared to Megxit I suppose.

From Dominic Raab MP:

Arrest of Ambassador to Iran: Foreign Secretary statementThe British Ambassador to Iran was briefly detained by Iranian authorities on 11 January.

Published 11 January 2020

From:Foreign & Commonwealth Office (https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/foreign-commonwealth-office) and The Rt Hon Dominic Raab MP (https://www.gov.uk/government/people/dominic-raab)

Following the brief detention of Her Majesty’s Ambassador to Iran Rob Macaire, Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said:

The arrest of our Ambassador in Tehran without grounds or explanation is a flagrant violation of international law. The Iranian government is at a cross-roads moment. It can continue its march towards pariah status with all the political and economic isolation that entails, or take steps to deescalate tensions and engage in a diplomatic path forwards.

[SpamCanDriver]

Just to add some first hand knowledge from someone who operated into/out of IKA fairly shortly after the period in question :bored:

ADS-B being lost could of been down to loss of GPS signal and not related to the missile impact. We lost GPS signal in a very similar position, which subsequently led to the loss of ADS-B out.
And has happened to me pretty much every time I've departed there recently.

Also for departure we are always given the IKA 1A departure, which is basically rwy to 7000 the radar vectors.
Don't know if that's what they got, but seems every one normally gets that departure when I'm there.

[RatherBeFlying]

Office of President of Ukraine F/b

https://m.facebook.com/president.gov.ua/photos/pcb.1862699617208230/1862726353872223/?type=3&theater (https://m.facebook.com/president.gov.ua/photos/pcb.1862699617208230/1862726353872223/?type=3&theater)

Mr. Danilov, the Ukrainian security official, said Iran had been forced into conceding its military had brought down the jet because the evidence of a missile strike had become overwhelmingly clear to international investigators. He said Ukrainian experts on the ground in Iran had gathered such evidence since their arrival on Thursday despite apparent Iranian efforts to complicate the investigation, including by sweeping debris into piles rather than carefully documenting it. “When a catastrophe happens, everything is supposed to stay in its place,” he said. “Every element is described, every element is photographed, every element is fixed in terms of its location and coordinates. To our great regret, this was not done.”

Furor in Iran and Abroad After Tehran Admits Downing Ukrainian Jetliner (https://nyti.ms/37VN71f)

[Airbubba]

From Sky News editor Deborah Haynes via Twitter:

I understand Rob Macaire, the UK's Ambassador to Tehran, today visited what was billed as a vigil in Tehran for victims of [s]#Flight (/hashtag/Flight?src=hash) 752. It quickly became clear it was more of an anti-government protest than a vigil. As soon as this became apparent he left 1/

The UK ambassador - @HMATehran (/HMATehran) - then popped into a barbers for a haircut en route back to embassy. That was where he was arrested (while in barbers). Reports he had been taking photographs of the protests are untrue, a source said 2/

The UK's Rob Macaire was held by the Iranians for about 2 hours for questioning. Cue frantic phone calls between London & Tehran. He was finally released and is now safely back home. 3/3
1:52 PM [Pacific time? - Airbubba] - 11 Jan 2020

[Airbubba]

Also for departure we are always given the IKA 1A departure, which is basically rwy to 7000 the radar vectors.
Don't know if that's what they got, but seems every one normally gets that departure when I'm there.

Thanks. Do they usually give you a direct or 'turn right on course' to intercept a radial after the runway heading? At the old airport you had several NDB's and they were all named, you guessed it, Tehran.

It looks like the ADS-B was certainly sending out positions for a while, it probably defaults to IRS or whatever it's called on a B-738 if GPS is not available. Cue DaveReidUK, he would possibly know.

[DaveReidUK]

It looks like the ADS-B was certainly sending out positions for a while, it probably defaults to IRS or whatever it's called on a B-738 if GPS is not available. Cue DaveReidUK, he would possibly know.

I would be very surprised if the ADS-B data sent from the flight wasn't GPS derived.

And equally surprised if the abrupt end of transmissions from the aircraft didn't coincide with the missile strike, give or take a second or so.

[Airbubba]

And I'm pretty sure most ADS-B installations continue to transmit without GPS since it is unavailable in cruise for much of the transit over places like Iraq and Iran but the positions still plot on FR24 and other tracking sites.

[WillowRun 6-3]

Lonewolf_50 - "The decisions makers in the risk office have a hell of a challenge to deal with"

Nothing to argue over in your (gratefully acknowledged) post.
And on AF 447, the report, dated in summer 2012, was released a little while before my practice interests ascended, or grew at least, to include international civil aviation, so I have to assume you've stated that point correctly.
To add to the perspective about ICAO's initiatives, the uphill nature of reform and improvement projects is shown by something I observed there a few years back. MH17 was destroyed at cruise altitude in mid-July 2014. ICAO convened its "Second High-Level Safety Conference" in early February 2015 (I was there under informal observer status). No surprise that various CZ-related (and global flight tracking) initiatives or proposals were added to the agenda in tbe wake of MH17 (and MH370).
It seemed that positions articulated by the representative from Russia's delegation particularly on CZ-related items were artificially constrained, formalistic, even meant to obstruct. But as we all say, where the context is politics, weighing and deciding upon technically correct grounds should not be expected to occur.

[RatherBeFlying]

The propagation of bad news through several layers of superiors is at each layer vulnerable to delay and massaging of facts and manufacture of excuses. I doubt if there's much in the way of just culture in the IRGC, or the current White House for that matter.

Methinks the Ukrainian investigators had a clear channel up to Zelenski who clued in Rouhani on what really happened.

[gearlever]

Meanwhile the Guardian is talking about two missiles...

Iran's admission of guilt over plane crash sparks unrest in Tehran (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/11/iran-plane-crash-admission-sparks-unrest-in-tehran)

[Lonewolf_50]

Thanks for that link, gearlever. I had not seen this level of detail yet in terms of public utterances.
A senior IRGC commander, Amir Ali Hajizadeh, confessed publicly that he knew the plane had been shot down almost immediately, and asked for forgiveness. {snip}
A missile operator acting alone because of a “communications breakdown” had mistaken the Boeing 737 for a cruise missile heading towards a sensitive IRGC site, and only had 10 seconds to decide whether to fire, he said. “He was obliged to make contact and get verification. But apparently, his communications system had some disruptions. Either the ‘jamming’ system was the cause or the network was busy,” he said. Given the time of day this happened, one wonders if this operator had just taken over from the previous shift/watch, or had been up all night and was near the end of the shift? That kind of detail may not be made public, but might inform some of the human factors involved.

[Grebe]

Thanks for that link, gearlever. I had not seen this level of detail yet in terms of public utterances.
Given the time of day this happened, one wonders if this operator had just taken over from the previous shift/watch, or had been up all night and was near the end of the shift? That kind of detail may not be made public, but might inform some of the human factors involved.

Cannot post link- but here is significant part

*com/news/av/world-51077352/iran-plane-crash-missile-struck-underneath-cockpit-ukraine

[SpamCanDriver]

And I'm pretty sure most ADS-B installations continue to transmit without GPS since it is unavailable in cruise for much of the transit over places like Iraq and Iran but the positions still plot on FR24 and other tracking sites.

Been a long time since I've flown the 737. But on the 777 when you loose GPS you start getting ADS-B out EICAS msgs as it doesn't work without GPS.
GPS is normally working 100% fine both in Iraq and Iran, (apart from the small area on departure from IKA) the black spot is normally on the IRAQI/TURKISH border near Syria

As for your other question, yes you get radar vectors normally direct to a waypoint.

[gearlever]

An air defence unit close to the departure sector of an international airport not monitoring twr frequency?

Can't believe.

[CodyBlade]

An air defence unit close to the departure sector of an international airport not monitoring twr frequency?

Can't believe.

"Curiouser and curiouser!" Cried Alice

[Beamr]

An air defence unit close to the departure sector of an international airport not monitoring twr frequency?

Can't believe.
TWR communicating in english, SAM staff doesn't speak english? It can't be assumed that every grunt speaks any other language than their native.

[Airbubba]

Follow-up from the UK Ambassador on his arrest last night in Tehran.

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/947x623/macaire_1_ea27c92982d7ca644db9b958aad269faa46cea6a.jpg
https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/945x705/macaire_2_a4360d5d99194c716ab12b3cd6d95f49e23d0871.jpg

[old,not bold]

I'd say odds of SAM unit being at least listening to airport radio traffic at 1/2 best. Actually being in direct two-way contact (without relays in command structure) less likely than that

That's not surprising.......back in the days when GF operated a BAC111/B737 service to Shiraz (1970's) a civil aircraft on final approach might see a couple of fighters climbing out towards it just after taking off. There were 2 ATC units, one civil (broken English) and one military (Farsi), and it seemed that they didn't talk to each other while controlling their traffic on the single runway. Winds were usually quite light, so the runway in use by each ATC unit was not necessarily the same.

[Airbubba]

Some pictures of holes in the wreckage taken by a Ukrainian investigator.

ABC Australia reports: "Ukrainian officials said they did not make evidence public earlier due to concerns about being deported from Iran."

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1024x682/000_1nm7ja_685d4acaf20d56258433e142dde30a106db4c018.jpg
https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/960x1280/2020_01_11t190533z_2_lynxmpeg0a0mx_rtroptp_4_iran_crash_26e1 cf4e97fa997ae6501aefdb2acaf1bcc60d6b.jpg
https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/800x600/2020_01_11t190533z_2_lynxmpeg0a0mz_rtroptp_3_iran_crash_b572 a7b73e9ce87dbb5f838605ff95c0261192c7.jpg

[TEEEJ]

Cannot post link- but here is significant part

*com/news/av/world-51077352/iran-plane-crash-missile-struck-underneath-cockpit-ukraine

Iran plane crash: Missile struck underneath cockpit - Ukraine

Ukraine's top security official, Oleksiy Danilov, has told the BBC that his country's investigators had already gathered evidence that a missile brought down a Ukrainian passenger jet, before Iran changed its position.


Video at following link showing interview with Oleksiy Danilov.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-51077352/iran-plane-crash-missile-struck-underneath-cockpit-ukraine

[WHBM]

I'm sure the SAM was under the command of one or more officers, rather than conscripts. However, their English skills, if the deployment overnight of the units even thought about it, could well be zero, let alone advising the relevant frequencies.

They could have always run FlightRadar24 of course … *

* : This is not an idle comment, the realtime data is readily available on the Internet. It's the same as the Vincennes/Iran Air 655 fiasco in 1988, where every official enquiry stated that they had no way of knowing about the scheduled Iran Air A300 - despite the quartermaster on board all US Navy ships overseas having a current OAG (Official Airline Guide) timetable to hand, to book leave etc when abroad, which had all the cross-Gulf scheduled flights listed of course, right on board the ship.

[hunterboy]

The Iranians have had a separate frequency for military identification when crossing into their airspace for years. What was worrying was that they would only answer 50% of the time. I’m sure many pilots continued on thinking the worst that would happen would be an interception, rather than a SAM. After all, who in their right mind would shoot down an airliner?.........

[Richard W]

They could have always run FlightRadar24 of course … *
Provided it is accessible across the Iranian firewall!

However, there could have been a man with the information at his fingertips on the other end of a phone or other link. That'd work fine until communications went down or drastically slowed up. A declared contributor in this case is that communications weren't working properly - network overload, failure or jamming. Could the safety recommendation be better communications infrastructure for the IRGC Aerospace Force?

[Avman]

With regard to departures prior to the AUI flight, I have just checked (on FR24) and in the hour preceding AUI's departure I only saw two; an AtlasGlobal at 01:47Z and a QTR at 02:08Z. That then leaves a gap of 36 minutes prior to AUI's departure. We don't know of course but 06:00 local sounds like a good time for a shift change. That would have made the AUI the first departure after 06:00 (and indeed after the QTR at 05:38 local).

[aerobelly]

I'm not sure I understand what this flight did differently to all those taking off before it and those shortly after it. Did they all go in more or less the same direction, same altitude and towards the same "sensitive" area? Or was this one different?

Also consider change in circumstances on the ground, a shift change perhaps? Earlier crew heads for prayers or food and new crew not briefed adequately.

'a

[Lord Farringdon]

There is a lot of speculation around why the SAM site lit up on this airliner. Until the authorities have investigated or reported or until someone speaks with " anonymity because they are not authorized to speak officially" there will be nothing for us PPruners to examine, analyse or assess from which we can then meaningfully speculate. So it just becomes scenario creation. Here's one example scenario.

It might have been as simple as higher command raising the alert level to 'attack imminent' based on widely reported US military air activity directly associated with the ballistic missiles strike on their bases. EA6 Prowlers (see edit below) whose primary role is comms jamming were part of that I understand. On receiving this, maybe that was enough for the Iranian tactical command to announce 'possible enemy air or cruise missile attack imminent'. The SAM Site boys then go, "Ok, we're in business". These units then become fairly autonomous when in action since every time they light up their radar's to acquire a target they become a SEAD target themselves. The SAM site know that's what will kill them so if they knew they were giving away their position by lighting up an airliner and possibly risking almost certain elimination from the game, then I suspect they wouldn't have done so. Clearly, some or many of the elements of miscommunication, misidentification, miscalculation, fear, tension and C3 breakdown/misinterpretation were all at play. Comms jamming itself (which may have prevented the missile command centre receiving critical information concerning the Ukrainian flight), is an indicator of imminent enemy action and may have simply reinforced the 'under attack' scenario.

The inference is that civilian airliners simply shouldn't be anywhere near active military operations. The two cannot mix. No doubt some low level conscripts will pay a heavy price for the mistake (perhaps even execution in that regime), but the real culprits are the higher command and their failure to co-ordinate at the military to government interface. Such co-ordination would have simply banned civilian ops in Iranian air space thereby removing ambiguity from the missile battery's decision making. But who knows?

It is on their lives,that military in a 'hot' situation don't trust anything and as Lone Wolf has speculated they have very little time to react if they are to stay alive let alone defeat the enemy attack. It really doesn't matter how many civilian flights departed before the incident or what routes they took. Something in the threat level changed and this Ukrainian flight was in the wrong place at the wrong time.

As a matter of interest (and I am sure I am not the first to surmise this) any cruise missile taking an airways route might be well disguised where civilian operations are in play since their air speeds are similar (notwithstanding the slower climb out speeds of the incident aircraft). Conversely, it is very likely that every SAM site is well aware of that possibility and ready to neutralise any threat from that quarter.


Edit: Advised by Sailvi767 and Willowrun 6-3

"No EA-6 Prowler aircraft because their roles and missions have been handed off to the EA-18G Growler (a derivative of the F/A-18 Hornet)."

[Mozella]

Consider the conditions under which the AA missiles were launched. The Iranian ballistic missiles were fired on the Iraqi bases around 3AM local time. The people manning the Tor-M1 would be hunkered down inside the vehicle waiting for an American counterstrike at any moment, especially since they were in the vicinity (and probably guarding) a ballistic missile research centre.......... snip...................

Neither you nor I have any first hand knowledge of exactly what the TOR crew knew. You seem to believe that they knew about the Iranian attack on the airport in Iraq or at least that they were put on some sort of alert status. That may very well be true; however, based on my experience flying with the Iranian military, I would would not be at all surprised to learn that they did NOT know about the attack against Iraq.

I have no proof of course, but I have quite a bit of combat experience in the U.S. Navy and we were made aware only of operations which might directly impact what we were doing. We got information on big picture items from the newspaper. I suspect the Iranian missile shooters were not in the big picture loop only three hours after the event took place.

During the time I was flying Iranian F-14's I had the opportunity to make a couple of simulated Phoenix missile attacks on what I believed to be Russian Foxbats overflying Iran, but they could have been another type belonging to another country. Whatever they were, they were very high and very fast but I never got any kind of heads up from the Iranian Air Defense folks. I assume somebody knew about the overflights, but the word never filtered down to the squadron level. Nonetheless, they did prove to be a good training exercise on high altitude, high speed intercepts for my back seat students. Command and control was not a strong point back then, and based on the events in the last week, I'd say it is still a problem. Fog of war and all that.

[wheelsright]

I hope the Iranian authorities will ensure there is a full investigation into the circumstances that led to the shooting down of PS572. They have taken the first step by accepting responsibility. However, there are many unanswered questions that the victims families and friends would like to be addressed to help them come to terms with their loss. I was moved by an interview of one of the victims who was quick to correct his interviewer that it was not an "accident". Of course it is not certain if it was an accident or a misjudgment or whether the civilian aircraft was deliberately targeted. I think that these questions should be properly addressed for everyone's sake including the Iranian authorities. The most likely explanation is that an overly paranoid operator wrongly identified the aircraft as a threat for reasons that should be further identified. But that is not the only possible explanation. The aircraft had a large number of North Americans on board, it may have had covert operatives on board, it could possibly have been deliberately targeted. Equally, it could have been a complete mistake where the launch was totally unintended.

In any event, it was yet another tragic loss of a civilian airliner by military action. The risk to civilian air traffic is considerable and needs to be reevaluated.

[BVRAAM]

Worth a read.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/paulkennard/2020/01/12/ukraine-international-flight-ps752a-shakespearean-tragedy/?fbclid=IwAR22kzjv7LDItmBQ4B3IcmWRvtxJe28V1r7-4mG06PD-gJ-YZE24VZxb1Is#7233d34f67ab

[JamesT73J]

It was following an established SID (Parot 3G). Other earlier departing aircraft had followed very similar tracks.
So the question is; why didn't the missile system's IFF correctly interpret the ADB-S squawk as civilian as opposed to a potential hostile?
Sorry if a bl**dy silly question.

I'm not sure if it matters by the time the missile is tracking. I suspect IFF only comes into lock/launch.

[Airbubba]

Iran's Tasnim News now claims that the SAM site was jammed by a USAF RC-135W.

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1506x1080/rc_135w_large__202f17309abaef24283543b997e819d3b63a24c7.jpg
https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1581x611/tasnim_news_5bd751f9d15f8120a1aba7bc6ad2d82fa98c79b1.jpg

[gums]

Salute!

As Mozella advocates," the fog of war" was the most likely environment, and if the missile crew was just changing the guard, they also could have been doing a basic system check/calibration with a failed safety interlock. An alert could have been passed down from on high, but only the Iranians can address that part of the "fog". The missile battery was a highly mobile system, and the comm might have been poor, as well.

All here should realize that I am trying to "explain" things from a military point of view and not making an excuse for the terrible incident.

Lastly, the IFF is used primiarily before launch, and even the U.S. Stinger launcher has had IFF since the early 80's. Once that thing is launched, you cannot make it go blind. The really long range missiles and the command guided ones can be made to go blind or steered away from a target if the target is deemed friendly. The British debrief I got after the Falklands pointed out they could stop tracking easily and keep the Rapier missile from hitting a friendly ship or aircraft.

Gums sends...

[Fortissimo]

I think there is a danger of over-complicating things here. I know people are arguing for a full Annex 13 investigation into this event but I don't think one is either likely or necessary.

The primary purpose of an Annex 13 investigation is to determine the cause of an accident (or incident) in order to prevent a recurrence. Unlike MH17, there is no need for a forensic examination to prove the aircraft was shot down and identify the type of missile involved because the Iranians have publicly acknowledged the aircraft was downed by a missile, albeit in error; there is nothing to be gained from a safety investigation per se.

The type of missile is also not relevant from a safety perspective - nobody is in the business of certifying transport aircraft to withstand a missile strike, so there is no point in trying to work out the details.

Having 'owned' a live missile engagement zone in a previous life, my own view from the outset was that this had a failure of command and control written all over it. Different nations have different systems for controlling such things, but all will have some means of limiting the potential for own goals or targeting of innocents even if that is only via basic aircraft recognition. There certainly needs to be an investigation, and it will be an Iranian investigation to find out what part of its system failed: was it someone over-reacting or simply leaving a switch in AUTO?

I doubt very much whether there will be full (if any) transparency, and you could not blame them for that - most governments would do the same. While it will not bring people back, at least the discussions on compensation will start from an admission of liability.

Separately, there is work to do for ICAO. We need a better process for ensuring that commercial air transport flights are not placed at un-necessary risk when operating near conflict zones. Arguably, the fact that ballistic missiles were being lobbed about the place and that someone had offered to send cruise missiles to 52 targets of his choice should have raised a warning flag.

Let's see the ICAO security panel reconvene to review the lessons from MH17 in light of this latest tragedy.

[Lonewolf_50]

I think there is a danger of over-complicating things here. I know people are arguing for a full Annex 13 investigation into this event but I don't think one is either likely or necessary.
While I agree with some of your post, let me offer a response to this:
1. Completing the ICAO Annex 13 investigation will lead to a final report.
2. That final report will (hopefully) include FDR data and CVR extracts that may shed light on whether or not there was anything amiss with aircraft systems, etc.
3. It may also uncover possible minor irregularity in ATC/COMMS/OPS - something.
4. You can say that we don't know what we don't know.
5. Beyond that: I suspect that the nations whose citizens died in this crash will not be satisfied for the Investigation and Final report to not be done.

[ele]

I have found a couple of interesting articles on the Novaya Gazeta (on their website, second article under: /articles/2020/01/11/83411-vse-taki-obezyana-s-granatoy, I don't know if I can post whole link here). They contain 2 interviews with Andrey Gorbachevsky, a Russian engineer and developper of radar anti-aircraft missile systems who worked for the Russian State Scientific Research Institute of Aviation Systems (GosNIIAS). That is: a person familiar with the Tor system.
It's clear throughout the articles that it's difficult for him to accept what happened, so much so that he says: "No one and under no circumstances could mistake a passenger plane for a cruise missile. To do that it would take not just a "monkey with a grenade", but a DRUNK "monkey with a grenade". He says the flight delay in his opinion couldn't have made any kind of difference, as "the plane took off from a civilian airfield and went along a standard track. A passenger plane cannot fly randomly, it goes along a dedicated corridor", plus "it was taking off", "that alone" would have told the crew commander (the one who gives the authorization to fire the missile, as he says, adding that without this authorization it is impossible to launch the missile) that it obviuosly was a passanger plane. He adds that after 20 seconds from take off the airplane would have been visible on the primary 'air search' radar (the TOR system has 2 radars, the second is for missile guidance) and for approximately 6 minutes it would have created a trace: so "it was clear where it was coming from" (i.e. the well-known civilian airport). He adds: the crew commander "evaluates the signal strength from the target by the magnitude of the mark (i.e. on the radar): if it's a large or small target. The indicators show a bright or dim mark. Simply put, the commander should have seen something big fly. From a large passenger plane, the mark will be ten times brighter than from a military target" (i.e. like a fighter plane). A cruise missile "has a very low reflecting power. The brightness of this point is no longer ten, but a hundred times less bright than that of a commercial airplane. And a cruise missile flies at a very low altitude, in order to avoid being detected... we are speaking about just tens of meters. And the Iranians shot down a huge plane flying at an altitude of 2400 meters. How can this be confused? The difference is where to direct the beam (i.e. for the launch): up to the sky or down along the earth".
Despite being so shocked by such an incredible 'mistake' (this shows, he says "the degree of collapse of its (=Iran's) air defense. I can't remember a bigger mistake in the history of air defense"), he concludes that the crew must have been terrified by the idea of the American raid and adds "they didn't see anything, they just took and fired".
So his take.
Edit: the radar expert says the guidance launch beam is so narrow (1 degree) that the passanger plane was aimed at (i.e. not possible that "something else" was targeted and then the missile hit it by mistake, he says). Regarding 'automated' mode for the Tor: he excludes that ("No, launching a rocket is not possible without an indication of the crew commander").

[DaveReidUK]

Completing the ICAO Annex 13 investigation will lead to a final report.

The scope of Annex 13 specifically excludes incidents involving injury or death inflicted by a third party.

[WillowRun 6-3]

Just the facts.....
Regarding over-complicating matters, and contending the Annex 13 process does not need to be conducted to a proper conclusion, Lonewolf_50's replies all are ones I agree with. There is a wide difference between an investigation and inquiry into the missile battery and the military chain of command generally in the incident, and the subject areas of the Annex 13 process. Stated another way, a proper report will set forth "the record" of the flight and its operational parameters in detail. It's useful to recall that just - and this is a guess as to an accurate number - 15 years ago the kinds of maps, flight tracks, airspace structure, and other important elements throughout this thread weren't available so readily, just days after an accident. But these information elements on a forum thread are not part of an official record, and should not be mistaken for same. And an official record is quite important, is it not?, for the steps which should follow (for reasons noted in the prior posts).
Also it would be useful to know which particular security panel of ICAO Fortissimo is saying needs to be reconvened - ICAO has run various types of things, and seems lately to be in the event-production business more all the time.

[Lonewolf_50]

The scope of Annex 13 specifically excludes incidents involving injury or death inflicted by a third party.
David, I am hope you are aware that there is more to what is going on here than a written word on a page.
If there is some kind of evidence of something being amiss with any ATC or Aircraft Systems or processes that may turn out to be a contributory cause (again, we don't know what we don't know, and I suspect that the odds are slim), then that may offer the civil aviation flight safety realm things to learn.
Are the chances small? Yes, that is my guess, but that's all I have: a guess.
Do you remember how much was not known about AF 447 before the FDR's were examined?
Politically, going through the process may have a significant value that your reading of Annex 13 will not appreciate.
If the Iranian government chooses to stand on that 'letter of the law' that you refer to, that will send a message.

FWIW, they had already started the process before the premise of a technical malfunction was abandoned. There's even a link to that prelim somewhere in this thread. Here you go, Dave: the prelim. (https://www.pprune.org/attachment.php?attachmentid=5887&d=1578598795)
On Page 3:
B. Actions taken to investigate the accident
- The investigation was instituted based on Annex 13 to the ICAO Convention.
If they choose to end this process sooner rather than later, I hope that decision will be taken in consultation with Ukranian and Canadian goverrnments, at the least.

But these information elements on a forum thread are not part of an official record, and should not be mistaken for same. And an official record is quite important, is it not?,
Amen.

[WillowRun 6-3]

A fast reference to Annex 13 revealed that there is an exclusion relating to "injuries" - not incidents - as part of its definition structure of Accident, which is built on defining when injuries (fatal or serious) occur to a person. In context, the exclusion also covers self-inflicted injuries or those caused to a stowaway, so not a general carve-out for a missile strike and similar events as a category.
That said, was the asserted exclusion applied to Pan Am 103?
And, is there some other exclusion with similar terms (not the one in Chapter 1, Definitions)?

[Capi_Cafre']

Worth a read.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/paulkennard/2020/01/12/ukraine-international-flight-ps752a-shakespearean-tragedy/?fbclid=IwAR22kzjv7LDItmBQ4B3IcmWRvtxJe28V1r7-4mG06PD-gJ-YZE24VZxb1Is#7233d34f67ab
Not a bad read at all, but I'm surprised that the "caused by human error" trope is still alive and well in discussions of this sort. The launch crew almost certainly made a reasoned decision to fire within the context of its training and the information available at the time.