Ukrainian Aircraft down in Iran

[Tokyo Geoff]

ISNA are reporting as per title.

[nowhereasfiled]

Unconfirmed reports of a Ukrainian 737 coming down in Iran near Imam Khomeimi Airport.

Some are mentioning this flight
https://fr24.com/data/flights/ps752#23732569

[UltraFan]

The interesting part is that Reuters and several others report that the plane crashed "due to technical problems". Waiting for more information. If true, one problem both Ukrainian Airlines and Boeing could do without. :(

[unworry]

Unconfirmed, but it appears it came down in flames ...

https://twitter.com/alihashem_tv/status/1214756252749877250 (https://twitter.com/alihashem_tv/status/1214756252749877250)

Note: this footage is from Ali Hashem who is a BBC Iran correspondent, so it might be credible

[Airbubba]

Puzzling last ADS-B data point. A coincidence hours after Iran launches a revenge attack on U.S. interests?

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/832x707/ps752_534bccc4d53f501cf4a186b5f001de71f5ac3f3a.jpg

[krismiler]

Iran has no quarrel with Ukraine, given the heightened state of alert of the Iranian air defences, it looks like another MH117.

More questions to be asked about civilian aircraft operating in war zones.

Singapore Airlines now diverting all flights away from Iranian airspace.

[StormyKnight]

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1085x464/pic2_66bbc73e4331881351cf175c57f83591ad8f05a2.jpg
Reported pictures of the crash site.

[Grebe]

Interesting conflation

Jan. 7, 2020 11:28 pm ET

A Ukraine International Airlines plane crashed in Iran’s capital on Wednesday with at least 170 passengers and crew members on board, according to Iranian state television.

The Boeing 737 single-aisle jet crashed after taking off from Tehran’s Imam Khomeini International Airport en route to the Ukrainian capital, Kiev, state news said.

A spokesperson for Ukraine International Airlines couldn’t immediately be reached for comment.

An Iranian air accident investigation team was headed to the crash, the spokesman for Iran’s air regulator told state television. A report on casualties would come later, the spokesman said.

The crash came as Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched a series of strikes against two bases with U.S. troops in Iraq, which the Iranian force said were retribution for the U.S. killing of Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani.

Over the past year, Boeing Co. has suffered a series of technical failures with its newer-version 737 MAX aircraft. The Ukrainian 737 is an earlier model and doesn’t have the flight-control feature that was implicated in crashes last year and led to Boeing grounding the MAX fleet globally.

The Wall Street Journal couldn’t independently verify what caused the crash. Iranian media said it was due to a technical fault without explaining how they reached that conclusion. Determining the likely cause of a crash typically can take days or months.

Iran has a poor air-safety record. Iranian carriers and air-safety regulators are hobbled by a lack of access to technology, spare parts and new planes for aging fleets because of yearslong Western sanctions.

Write to Rory Jones at rory.jones@wsj**

[Water pilot]

Iran has a poor air-safety record. Iranian carriers and air-safety regulators are hobbled by a lack of access to technology, spare parts and new planes for aging fleets because of yearslong Western sanctions.

They had to stick that in there, but the state of Iranian air carriers is irrelevant.
A Ukraine International Airlines plane crashed in Iran’s capital on Wednesday with at least 170 passengers and crew members on board, according to Iranian state television.

[capngrog]

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1085x464/pic2_66bbc73e4331881351cf175c57f83591ad8f05a2.jpg
Reported pictures of the crash site.

If those pictures, as reported, are of the crash site, the wreckage appears to be pretty well scattered, indicating an inflight break up. Of course later pictures may reveal a large smoking crater and a tight wreckage array, indicating something else altogether.

Grog

[LTNman]

Icy morning in Tehran. Aircraft de-iced?

[Buswinker]

Seems to have been around an hour delayed taking off, having had an on time arrival and then night stopped, which would potentially be supportive a theory of technical and also potentially icing

as always, await official input

[segfault]

In the current environment, would Boeing representatives be able to travel to Iran to assist with the investigation?

[Grebe]

If those pictures, as reported, are of the crash site, the wreckage appears to be pretty well scattered, indicating an inflight break up. Of course later pictures may reveal a large smoking crater and a tight wreckage array, indicating something else altogether.

Grog
CNN network is running a supposed video which supposedly shows the 737 ( strictly a colored yellow-white fireball- dot) descending from left screen to right of screen, then turning back to left and then an orange yellow bright explosion at ground level. FWIW jet fuel or most any carbon fuel does give a orange- yellow glow when burning or exploding. The white spot fire seems to be quite intense for just an simple engine fire. **IF** one believes that video is correct and not a view of a cruise missile or similar, then **probably** it means plane was seriously on fire from an altitude less than 10K above surrounding ground..


8 jan- update - anyone notice that no photos of tail section or fuselage remains seem to be available ?

I found one but cannot now post it ...

[paperHanger]

Icy morning in Tehran. Aircraft de-iced?

It fell out of the sky in flames ... not a typical comsequence of icing ...

[TEEEJ]

Possible surface to air missile warhead fragmentation damage?

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1000x750/enu98kpu8amdzka_4cee5d74f48dc8f8292257cc991d85566e6d3ebe.jpg

[SysDude]

Definitely frag from an external source.

[Buswinker]

Seen conflicting pax count numbers. Looks like 180 pax and crew. Flight was late taking off by apx 70 mins
I’m seeing reporting of 4 crew total- does that sound right? Seems a bit low to me?

[megan]

Technical fault caused by ……..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YVTC4SoewbU

[kyden]

I’m seeing reporting of 4 crew total- does that sound right? Seems a bit low to me?

9 crew, according to Avherald and other various news sources. I don't have enough posts yet to share link, but article was just posted within the last 30 mins.

[CEJM]

https://news.sky.com/story/airliner-with-180-people-on-board-crashes-after-taking-off-from-tehran-international-airport-11903445

The video in the above article shows a piece of the fuselage with what looks like shrapnel damage to it.

However it is to way to early to lay blame! It could also have been an uncontained engine failure resulting in a fire in a ruptured fuel tank.

[fdr]

Would suggest that this particular subject is so sensitive to the welfare of a very large number of people around the world that it be suspended. The usual level of rhetoric that occurs on these pages may end up being consequential to actions by others. This is a dangerous time, and a dangerous situation, and those in charge have shown a propensity to use "intel" from any source, irrespective of veracity.

[RoyHudd]

I suggest all reports are discounted.

(An engine fire does not bring an aircraft down rapidly.)

[ChiefT]

The B738 was quite new, only 3 years old.
Even if it is for some hard to accept: It looks like a tragic accident, no attack.

Engine failure on one engine alone surely does not necessarily lead to a crash. But the human factor has always to be considered.

According to Iranian sources, most of the passengers were Iranians. RIP

[Bueno Hombre]

Direct flight from Iran to Ukraine with 180 people wanted to travel on that route? It appears from Ukrainian Airlines website that there is a flight everyday. What is the connection we might think about.? Energy ?

[onload]

Direct flight from Iran to Ukraine with 180 people wanted to travel on that route? What is the connection we might think about.? Energy ?

Lots of connecting flights out of Kiev to Europe + Caucasus

[n6330v]

Whatever happened left a massive debris field.
https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1998x1252/screenshot_2020_01_07_adella_beaini_on_twitter_2__58f29f820e 62b96b7d17ffcb8992d72d4b4db58c.jpg
https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1990x1284/screenshot_2020_01_07_adella_beaini_on_twitter_1__a9f125a32e 881ba7afb9c6e997242a82d6cf745b.jpg
https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1290x1298/screenshot_2020_01_07_adella_beaini_on_twitter_ca4d06412b69a d325aef2b7de7aa26e1ca4b67d0.jpg

[jolihokistix]

Some photos here too: https://en.mehrnews.com/photo/154308/Ukraine-Intl-Airlines-plane-crashes-in-Tehran-after-takeoff

[EFHF]

TEEEJ, what crash is your photo showing on the previous page? Sources please, or people will get the wrong end of the stick, again.
The source and even the photographer's name is watermarked in the very image you are looking at!

Higher resolution:

https://cdn.isna.ir/d/2020/01/08/4/61535407.jpg

Other images from ISNA:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ENvdyy9XYAAJOts.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ENvJVuLWwAEIPsJ.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ENvVtlbXYAEJD40.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ENu0GBkXYAALzNR.jpg
https://cdn.isna.ir/d/2020/01/08/4/61535419.jpg
https://cdn.isna.ir/d/2020/01/08/4/61535539.jpg
https://cdn.isna.ir/d/2020/01/08/4/61535581.jpg

Video of the burning aircraft coming down

[slfool]

Reuters photo:

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/817x459/rts2xl6m_dfd17f7150ee0d55595db7ad83a2c0eaeb1d6d8d.jpg


https://media.voltron.voanews.com/Drupal/01live-166/styles/817x459/s3/reuters-pictures/2020/01/RTS2XL6M.jpg?itok=b1rssGBX

[liider]

Not official:
15 Ukranians
71 Iranians
73 Canadians
8 Swedes
6 Afghanis
4 Germans
3 Brits

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

What engine type was fitted?

WWW

[gchriste]

So many of the photos including tail section showing what looks like inward facing frag damage. Officials very hasty to say fire only brought it down. Hmm.

[Water pilot]

Something exploded a a few seconds before impact (fuel tank?) so fragmentation damage would not be unexpected.

If airport workers saw the fire on takeoff that would be pretty conclusive of not being terror or a missile.

I think we should avoid trying to make a dangerous situation worse this is not a tv show. I rather like running water and electricity and don’t believe Jesus is coming so I am not in favor of World War III

[DaveReidUK]

What engine type was fitted?

All 737NGs have CFM56-7B engines, in this case a -7B24E.

[Helix Von Smelix]

Reuters photo:

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/817x459/rts2xl6m_dfd17f7150ee0d55595db7ad83a2c0eaeb1d6d8d.jpg


https://media.voltron.voanews.com/Drupal/01live-166/styles/817x459/s3/reuters-pictures/2020/01/RTS2XL6M.jpg?itok=b1rssGBX
Dots on the aircraft skin could be telling.

[gulab100]

Flash just before main impact flash in that video could have been a strike on those pylon lines. Typically 400kv.

[Auxtank]

Definitely frag from an external source.

Engine explosion could have done those.

[DaveReidUK]

Do we know how long the airplane was airborne? 8000 ft final altitude and Teheran Airport elevation 3,300 ft suggests a climb of 4,700 ft or approx 3 minutes climb @ 1800 ft/min.
Would an aircraft climb this high if there was an early issue such as the Concorde scenario some mentioned?

Two minutes and 24 seconds elapsed between the first airborne transmission (at about 350' AAL) and the last received at FL80.

[MattGarner]

Update 10:20 / Engine failure caused the crash of a Ukrainian airliner in Iran, rather than a missile attack or act of terrorism, the Ukrainian embassy to Iran said on Wednesday (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-crash-engine/engine-failure-not-missile-caused-crash-of-ukrainian-airliner-in-iran-ukrainian-embassy-idUSKBN1Z70W5). One of the black boxes has been recovered, Iran’s state broadcaster IRIB reported (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-crash-blackbox/black-box-of-crashed-ukrainian-airliner-found-irib-idUSKBN1Z70X3). The pilots of the Boeing 737-800 did not declare an emergency, Iranian media said (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-crash-emergency/ukrainian-flight-did-not-declare-emergency-before-crash-iranian-media-idUSKBN1Z70SB), quoting an official of the Iran Civil Aviation Organization.Initially, Ukraine's embassy in Iran said on Wednesday morning that engine failure caused the plane to crash and denied that it was terror-related or that a rocket had hit the aircraft.

But it later withdrew this statement, saying that anything was possible, and Mr Zelensky instructed Ukraine's prosecutors to open criminal proceedings over the crash.

Source: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/01/08/iran-plane-crash-170-passengers-feared-dead-ukraine-boeing-737/
​​​​​​​

[fox niner]

But the holes are all over the airframe! From the vertical fin to the fuselage to the wing section, everywhere. Take a look at the photos. Spots, dots, holes. Too many of them, you dont even need to do your best to see them immediately....

[fdr]

Dots on the aircraft skin could be telling.

They are telling. They are of a regular pattern. Only one sort of event causes any such regularity, and due to that, I believe this thread should be suspended for the sake of public safety.

[andrasz]

At the moment there are only two pieces of solid information. The video shows an in-flight fire with some break-up already happening (looking close it is possible to see at one point glowing pieces shredding) and just before the final impact (but still in the air) there is a major flare-up. The post-crash photos show clear evidence for external shrapnel damage on a section of the fuselage (the damage seen on the VS and the engine exhaust cowl is not conclusive, those could have happened during ground impact).

The combination of the above is EITHER the result of a catastrophic uncontained engine failure, OR a missile strike, full stop. In principle, design and certification should preclude the former, but it still does happen, cannot be ruled out at this stage.

While the evidence is certainly suspicious, knowing Iran well (have just been there last October) I find an accidential missile hit rather unlikely. While panic and incompetence under the circumstances is entirely plausible, Iran is a very tightly controlled society, and the news of such a blunder would have reached the highest levels very rapidly. The accident happened in the dark, and the first reports show burning wreckage in darkness. Had it been a missile launched by Iranian forces, the area would have been cordoned off and no photos with incriminating evidence would have been permitted to surface, especially not on government controlled news outlets. There may be incompetence among the military, but certainly not among the news censors.

[michaelbinary]

Yes, if you look at the crash scene, there is no aircraft at all. if it came down 737 max style, there would be a crater and nothing left, if it flew down, there would be a crash trail and large parts of the air frame intact and on fire, if it blew up in mid air there would be a very large debris field and not very many large bits of the air frame intact. So its either a catastrophic explosion in the air caused by ?, engine explosion, missile fragmentation, or bomb, but with a bomb fragmentation would inside to out, rather than what looks like can be seen.
Ukraine has withdrawn its earlier statement, so interesting, watch this space. They have the black boxes so I wonder what will be on the CVR and did the pilots know anything about it.

[Grav]

Timing is extremely suspicious but i don’t really see the point for the iranians to shoot down an aircraft on their own soil. It could only worsen the already very delicate situation.

[Jakdaw]

BBC are reporting that the aircraft had had it's most recent scheduled maintenance on Monday.... another avenue to investigate.

[RTM Boy]

Yes, the absence of any impact crater and no recognisable parts of the fuselage, apart from the vertical stabiliser, increases the likelihood of significant airframe disintegration prior to hitting the ground. What we have not seen is the debris field along the flightpath, which would provide much more suggestive evidence. The video of the plane in flight definitely shows it to be on fire, with some limited trailing disintegration (although being dark it's impossible to see the extent) and a steep downward trajectory followed by the large explosion on hitting the ground.

There's nothing in any of this to rule in or rule out a possible cause, so statements about the cause from Iran or Ukraine at this stage can have no validity (any more than guesswork on this forum). It has been reported that there was no emergency call from the flightdeck, so that adds nothing either.

The airframe was only three years old, although recent maintenance just 2 days ago is bound to arouse suspicion. Until there is more evidence, anything is speculation. The BBC is reporting that Ukrainian officials are now rowing back on early assertions of a "technical problem" with an engine and are now saying investigators need to ascertain the cause.

[unworry]

The officials have now withdrawn that statement, according to the Telegraph newspaper

Reuters reports: "Both black boxes have been found"

Jerusalem Post reports: "Iran civil aviation org says will not give black box to Boeing"

Clarification: Its not clear whether the inference was no-one would receive the black box or just not boeing. Waiting for a better translation of their statement to surface

[Auxtank]

Do we have a registration? I'd be looking at how far it's flown since completing the technical on Monday 6th Jan presumably in Kyiv.

[LiamNCL]

Do we have a registration? I'd be looking at how far it's flown since completing the technical on Monday 6th Jan presumably in Kyiv.

UR-PSR 3 year old

[Auxtank]

Well, she's done a fair few miles since coming out the tech shop on Monday...

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/550x366/xxcb_85eb4b3c5cc135d82802d5e507288b216e5abbf5.jpg

[sceh]

Iran says it will not hand over the flight recorders. What happens in this case? Something to hide perhaps?

[andrasz]

You can determine from a photograph, that hole on the fusleage are absolutely fragment damage, but similar holes around the engine area are inconclusive?


There is a lot you can achieve with a Mk I eyeball without testing. On the fuselage section there are a number of quite regularly spaced holes, and all the holes have clearly inward bending edges. It is had to imagine anything but shrapnel damage, but of course it is impossible to say whether from an uncontained engine, of an external explosion (or engine failure from a missile...). The engine exhaust cowl has two holes, one large with outward bending edges, and a smaller indistict one with apparently inward bending ones. The photo is not clear enough to tell. The VS has a single puncture mark, it is possible that it was caused by an object during ground impact.

[brentford77]

Iran says it will not hand over the flight recorders. What happens in this case? Something to hide perhaps?

I think that is not unprecedented. For some strange reason, they do not appear to trust the Trump administration. My guess is that they will retain control of the analysis and data retrieval with the assistance of experts from a country more friendly to them. My money is on Germany.

[andrasz]

I wonder if the Canadians were diplomats?
No, they were Iranians. Canada has one of the most numerrous Iranian diaspora. Iran considers all born in iran as citizens irrespectve of what passports they hold, hence the difference in the nationality counts from Iranian and foreign sources.

[Auxtank]

The engine exhaust cowl has two holes, one large with outward bending edges, and a smaller indistict one with apparently inward bending ones. The photo is not clear enough to tell. The VS has a single puncture mark, it is possible that it was caused by an object during ground impact.

Which photo are you using for that analysis?

[PAXfips]

I wonder if the Canadians were diplomats? Shocking event.
20 were students (per https://twitter.com/behdadesfahbod/status/1214853804425961472 )

[KarlADrage]

Which photo are you using for that analysis?

The last one before the map here, I would imagine:
Crash: UIA B738 at Tehran on Jan 8th 2020, lost height after departure (http://avherald.com/h?article=4d1aea51&opt=0)

[andrasz]

How do you know, especially given the current situation? From what Frank Gardner says, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard is a law unto itself.

Nonsense. The IRG answers directly to the supreme leader (not to the civilian government). It is a disciplined and well trained force and it does exactly what is ordered, nothing more nothing less. The regular Iranian military is another story, sheer incompetence from their part is conceivable, however rather unlikely given the apparent unrestricted access to the accident site for local journalists. If there were anything to hide, there are few better than the Iranian authorities for acheiving it.

[lcolman]

Would suggest that this particular subject is so sensitive to the welfare of a very large number of people around the world that it be suspended. The usual level of rhetoric that occurs on these pages may end up being consequential to actions by others. This is a dangerous time, and a dangerous situation, and those in charge have shown a propensity to use "intel" from any source, irrespective of veracity.
What you are suggesting amounts to censorship of this subject, which by the way is something that the news websites seem to be doing by closing their comments sections on this subject.

I would suggest that sites like this are a fantastic source to disseminate real information regarding touchy subjects like this that are not moderated by the media outlets, all of whom show an overwhelming desire to appease Iran.

I don't suggest that I know whether or not this aircraft was shot down or had a catastrophic failure of some sort, but it does a disservice to the people who died on that flight to assist in hiding the truth - and that begins with censoring subjects related to it.

[The AvgasDinosaur]

I think that is not unprecedented. For some strange reason, they do not appear to trust the Trump administration. My guess is that they will retain control of the analysis and data retrieval with the assistance of experts from a country more friendly to them. My money is on Germany.
Trust Boeing, FAA, Trump ?
I wouldn’t be surprised if the analysis isn’t done by BEA in France. Weren’t they the chosen impartial experts chosen by Ethiopia ?
David

[MFC_Fly]

Missiles are mobile - just consider MH17.

They don't need to be, there is an Iranian commando base just 4 miles NE of the last ADS-B transmitted data position :ooh:

[Auxtank]

Trust Boeing, FAA, Trump ?
I wouldn’t be surprised if the analysis isn’t done by BEA in France. Weren’t they the chosen impartial experts chosen by Ethiopia ?
David

Agreed. My money's on France. The Iran - France relatonship has soured a little over Nuke sanctions in recent times but historically is reasonably friendly. The boxes will probably go there for analysis.
I'm not reading anything sinister in to Iran's refusal to hand them over to Boeing ther than current tensions.

[fox niner]

Thanks to the avherald site:
(blue markings are mine)
Apparently the aircraft tried to turn around?.



https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1540x2000/8a37a9a5_e023_4ad6_b43a_c61522bb73ad_f8f16bdb28e5a7383fbe684 ccc013f66bbb8b71a.jpeg

[Bravo Delta]

The remaining flying surfaces indicate shrapnel damage, this would not have occurred from a catastrophic engine failure under any circumstances.

A shoot down.

[iggie]

9 crew, according to Avherald and other various news sources. I don't have enough posts yet to share link, but article was just posted within the last 30 mins.

An airline official is quoted as saying 'Given the complexity of the flight there was a reinforced crew on this flight'.

Can anybody explain/elaborate on this?

[AusBro]

Hi there guys, signed up to share this information with you. We also located site of the crash and direction, which aligns with the photos in the media already. It does appear they were on a heading back to the airport.

Crash site: 35°33'42.71"N 51° 6'11.98"E

Cant post images as this is a new account so I put them on imgur:

imgur.com/a/cUjWqyj

[Beamr]

Was the first flight of the day? .
No. https://www.tehran-airport.com/departures.php

[lederhosen]

An airline official is quoted as saying 'Given the complexity of the flight there was a reinforced crew on this flight'.

Can anybody explain/elaborate on this?
If the aircraft had a long time on the ground between flights then you might well have two sets of cockpit crew to manage the duty time. We used to do this sometimes with certain night rotations.

[Interflug]

An airline official is quoted as saying 'Given the complexity of the flight there was a reinforced crew on this flight'.

Can anybody explain/elaborate on this?
In case of Tehran, it probably means, that they do not change crews in Tehran, but fly in and out with the same crew, and the crew is big enough to do that legally, some of the crew being off duty for one leg or parts of it.

[boaclhryul]

I wonder if the Canadians were diplomats?

An article in the Globe and Mail says, "Many of the Canadians on board were believed to be Iranian-Canadian students returning to school after the holidays. Flying Ukrainian International Airlines, via the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, is one of the cheapest routes from Tehran to Toronto." I've read a comment elsewhere that "the Tehran-Kiev-Toronto route is a popular low-cost connection for family visits for the big population of Canadians of Iranian ancestry living in Toronto".

[lomapaseo]

One should not conclude missile or uncontained engine debris just from photos of holes in the fuselage etc. Violent breakup events also produce holes like in the photos. In order to assess such differences you need to examine the hole surfaces both macroscopically and as a pattern. Just from photos like above is not enough.

[The Bartender]

Looking for any higher resolution images on Google, i found this one, showing the large fuselage side actually covered in rocks and pebbles rather than small holes...
https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1079x515/pebbles_8596ddc17e227db906bc799738d7a5d515c440b8.jpg

[A. Muse]

Curious as to why somone was filming this particular flight on their mobile phone early in the morning unless they were expecting something to happen to it......... ..... and then continuing to follow when it was almost out of sight behind trees....

[michaelbinary]

That's an interesting photo, lots of stones but also an inward hole below one of the windows. Of course that might have been caused for a variety of reasons.

[andrasz]

Looking for any higher resolution images on Google, i found this one, showing the large fuselage side actually covered in rocks and pebbles rather than small holes...


Many thanks, this pretty much changes all the speculation. As I mentioned before, it would have been highly unlikely for authorities to have given the pres access to the wreckage if they had someting to hide.

[Jaz110285]

https://youtu.be/lJkW_uLjVO8


These holes remind me something already seen....no conspirators here at all..but little holes are rising some questions!!

[Chipzilla]

Curious as to why somone was filming this particular flight on their mobile phone early in the morning unless they were expecting something to happen to it......... ..... and then continuing to follow when it was almost out of sight behind trees....

Everybody's got a smartphone these days - why would you think it was sinister that somebody recorded video of the crash?

Remember Air France flight 4590? That was 20 years ago - somebody caught that on film...

[Peter H]

Looking for any higher resolution images on Google, i found this one, showing the large fuselage side actually covered in rocks and pebbles rather than small holes...


... and some posting remind you why PRUNE can be great.

[Mr Optimistic]

Curious as to why somone was filming this particular flight on their mobile phone early in the morning unless they were expecting something to happen to it......... ..... and then continuing to follow when it was almost out of sight behind trees....
[Pax] I wondered that too. Presumably a loud noise got their attention first and by the time they realised it was odd and got the camera working the sequence had progressed. Can't see why anyone would take a pot shot so close to a national airport.

[fdr]

What you are suggesting amounts to censorship of this subject, which by the way is something that the news websites seem to be doing by closing their comments sections on this subject.

I would suggest that sites like this are a fantastic source to disseminate real information regarding touchy subjects like this that are not moderated by the media outlets, all of whom show an overwhelming desire to appease Iran.

I don't suggest that I know whether or not this aircraft was shot down or had a catastrophic failure of some sort, but it does a disservice to the people who died on that flight to assist in hiding the truth - and that begins with censoring subjects related to it. You may be right. Equally, given the volatility of the location at present, and the unpredictable nature of the leadership of the protagonists, more people stand to get hurt with any over reaction, by either side, for which speculation is a great fuel source. There is a non zero possibility of this being a Guns of August type moment in history, and if Tuchman's writings showed anything it was that the consequences of actions are poorly predicted by any side, whoever is involved. To that end, leaving this event to the AI and CI investigators is not a bad thing, they will be able to ascertain causation as a technical fault or criminal matter in their own deliberations, sticky pebbles or not.

Truth is written by the victors, if any remain to write it.

[parabellum]

A bit more fact-free speculation.


As the problems appear to have occurred at about 5000' AGL if it were brought down by ground fire it would need to be a weapon effective at that distance from where it was fired, that rules out rifle fire, don't know the effective range of the Stinger and such like.


For that amount of disintegration before impact, if it was an on board bomb, I think it would have to have been a big one.

[TEEEJ]

Looking for any higher resolution images on Google, i found this one, showing the large fuselage side actually covered in rocks and pebbles rather than small holes...
https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1079x515/pebbles_8596ddc17e227db906bc799738d7a5d515c440b8.jpg

Good find!

The parts do seem to match up. There appears to have been some cutting of that fuselage part between the two images being recorded. See oval in yellow. Cut by recovery/rescue teams?

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1920x1080/ukraine737pebblesrocks_57275d85237c8eb0fc387278d0ac09e8030b3 070.jpg

[UltraFan]

An airline official is quoted as saying 'Given the complexity of the flight there was a reinforced crew on this flight'.

Can anybody explain/elaborate on this?
Lots of people speaking several languages. Likely he meant they added flight attendants who could speak Farsi.

[Ripton]

Good find!

The parts do seem to match up. There appears to have been some cutting of that fuselage part between the two images being recorded. See oval in yellow. Cut by recovery/rescue teams?

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1920x1080/ukraine737pebblesrocks_57275d85237c8eb0fc387278d0ac09e8030b3 070.jpg
With regards to the cutting, it looks like there may be a shadow on the low res TV image. It's likely any cutting would have dislodged the pebbles/dirt. Perhaps play with the brightness/contrast settings.

[parabellum]

A bit more fact-free speculation.


As the problems appear to have occurred at about 5000' AGL if it were brought down by ground fire it would need to be a weapon effective at that distance from where it was fired, that rules out rifle fire, don't know the effective range of the Stinger and such like.


For that amount of disintegration before impact, if it was an on board bomb, I think it would have to have been a big one.

[Snyggapa]

With regards to the cutting, it looks like there may be a shadow on the low res TV image. It's likely any cutting would have dislodged the pebbles/dirt. Perhaps play with the brightness/contrast settings.

I see that not as a "cut out" on the picture on the left, but a further piece of the fuselage closer to the camera and bent up upwards - it's dark and unlit and blocking the view of the piece of the side behind it.

[donotdespisethesnake]

With regards to the cutting, it looks like there may be a shadow on the low res TV image. It's likely any cutting would have dislodged the pebbles/dirt. Perhaps play with the brightness/contrast settings.

Indeed, it's a piece of fuselage that has torn and bent up. People are so bad at interpreting low res images, they shouldn't even try.

[TEEEJ]

Indeed, it's a piece of fuselage that has torn and bent up. People are so bad at interpreting low res images, they shouldn't even try.

Apologies. Thanks for everyone that pointed out my poor interpretation. You are quite correct.

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/986x566/ukrainefuselage737_53402770879ff6747b392b75aee750585baa9c0f. jpg

High resolution at following link

https://inews.co.uk/images-i.jpimedia.uk/imagefetch/https://inews.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/IRAN-Plane-083866.jpg

[sky9]

I suspect that I know the answer but does the 737NG transfer maintenance data on ACARS?

[OldnGrounded]

Politics before flight safety I fear.

Boeing doesn't typically read and evaluate data recorders after accident flights, so there's no reason it should receive this one. If anyone has information suggesting that Iran intends to withhold the FDR & CVR from appropriate investigators (BEA, perhaps), let us know.

[Auxtank]

I suspect that I know the answer but does the 737NG transfer maintenance data on ACARS?

It can if you opt for it. It's an expensive option. Not sure if UA have or have not.

[Airbubba]

U.S. Secretary of State statement on PS 752.

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/778x353/enxmpk1woaeqcii_cafae3fe1ac446904a5996a1ee1ee577954fc4bd.png

[Tetsuo]

Curious as to why somone was filming this particular flight on their mobile phone early in the morning unless they were expecting something to happen to it......... ..... and then continuing to follow when it was almost out of sight behind trees....
The timing of the crash is around 6:18 am local time, which is a very reasonable timing for morning prayers. Might be someone on the way to or from a local mosque. There is not much happening around that time of the day, and airport being close I think it is pretty normal to film a fireball you spot in the sky with your phone and chase it to see what happens.

[DaveReidUK]

Boeing doesn't typically read and evaluate data recorders after accident flights, so there's no reason it should receive this one. If anyone has information suggesting that Iran intends to withhold the FDR & CVR from appropriate investigators (BEA, perhaps), let us know.

It's not a question of "withholding" access to the recorders.

Annex 13 requires that "the State conducting the investigation shall arrange for the read-out of the flight recorders without delay". It goes on to recommend that if the investigating state doesn't have that capability, it should use the facilities made available to it by other states, taking into account the capabilities and location of the facility in question and the likely timescale.

No third party has an automatic right to demand access to the FDR or CVR. In the unlikely event that the Iranians take up the US offer of assistance in this area, it would be the NTSB that reads the recorders. More likely, as alluded to above, it will be the BEA or BFU (or maybe even the AAIB).

[OldnGrounded]

It's not a question of "witholding" access to the recorders.

Annex 13 requires that "the State conducting the investigation shall arrange for the read-out of the flight recorders without delay". It goes on to recommend that if the investigating state doesn't have that capability, it should use the facilities made available to it by other states, taking into account the capabilities and location of the facility in question and the likely timescale.

No third party has an automatic right to demand access to the FDR or CVR. In the unlikely event that the Iranians take up the US offer of assistance in this area, it would be the NTSB that reads the recorders. More likely, as alluded to above, it will be the BEA or BFU (or maybe even the AAIB).

Yes, absolutely. I didn't mean to suggest that Iran was under an obligation to share.

[Coborn C6]

Boeing doesn't typically read and evaluate data recorders after accident flights, so there's no reason it should receive this one. If anyone has information suggesting that Iran intends to withhold the FDR & CVR from appropriate investigators (BEA, perhaps), let us know.

There are various sources reporting the Mehr news agency quoting the head of Iran’s Civil Aviation Authority (Ali Abedzadeh) as saying something to the effect that the black boxes would be examined in Iran under ICAO rules. However, I've not yet found a specific quote on the Mehr news agency site that sounds anything like that.

But if he did say that, then adding [words to the effect of] 'we won't send them to the manufacturer' would make a lot more sense.

Of course that makes for a far less juicy soundbite than "Iran will not provide Boeing with the black boxes", as if Boeing were somehow expecting to be given them.

It seems there is a lot being lost (and gained) in the translation and interpretation.

[Water pilot]

The timing of the crash is around 6:18 am local time, which is a very reasonable timing for morning prayers. Might be someone on the way to or from a local mosque. There is not much happening around that time of the day, and airport being close I think it is pretty normal to film a fireball you spot in the sky with your phone and chase it to see what happens.
There was also the minor matter of Iran having just challenged a nuclear armed superpower, so people were out and about looking for incoming and outgoing missile/jet trails (and perhaps not wanting to risk being burned alive inside of their apartments.)

Another possibility for the accident to put out there is that the ground crew were nervous (and perhaps exhausted from the funeral/protest), the pilots wanted to get out while the getting was good, and the plane needed to be deiced. It would not be surprising if people were rushing and made a mistake somewhere.

[flaphandlemover]

The engine picture on AVHerald has outward bend wholes....
Uncontained engine failure with catastrophic result?

There also seems to be some sort of heat (whitened metal) discoloration visible.....

Any thoughts on that picture?

[GarageYears]

Can anyone recall an uncontainable engine failure on a 737 (or equivalent) that:

a) caused a significant inflight fire
b) brought the aircraft down
c) created a crew load such no contact with ATC occurred

- GY

[CityofFlight]

Quite the debris field.

https://www.isna.ir/amp/98101813851/?__twitter_impression=true

[OldnGrounded]

Can anyone recall an uncontainable engine failure on a 737 (or equivalent) that:

a) caused a significant inflight fire
b) brought the aircraft down
c) created a crew load such no contact with ATC occurred

- GY

And, d) left a debris field like the one we're seeing photos?

I don't know what happened to this aircraft, but it sure looks like there was a very, very big explosion in flight.

[OldnGrounded]

To suggest this was caused by a mechanical event, completely unrelated to the present military conflict, seems pretty ridiculous. Catastrophic mechanical failures leading to this type of inflight break-up simply do not happen in modern transport aircraft. The odds of this happening at anytime, anywhere in the world are minimal. The odds of this happening at a time and place coincident with the conflict are infinitesimal. Media reports of anything other than foul play (deliberate or otherwise) simply lack credibility.

Does anyone disagree with me? Would love to hear the reasoning.

No disagreement. Common sense and Occam's Razor suggest missile, bomb, something powerful going boom. Whether it was deliberate or inadvertent and who may have "done it" are all just speculation at this point.

[the_stranger]

There are two things that take precedence before communicating with ATC. It is premature to draw a conclusion from (presumed) radio silence.
I am not drawing any conclusions. I do find it difficult though to believe a (simple) engine fire would require such aviation and navigation that a quick mayday to secure a free flight path would be too much.


And if you do return to a busy international airport, communication might be important to at least alert other aircraft and ATC of a deviation of the expected path.

Again, no conclusions, but if I were a betting man, I would not put any money on an engine fire as sole reason.

[PJ2]

. . . but it sure looks like there was a very, very big explosion in flight.There was a large explosion, about 2 perhaps 3 seconds prior to impact as seen in the video.

[fizz57]

. Catastrophic mechanical failures leading to this type of inflight break-up simply do not happen in modern transport aircraft. The odds of this happening at anytime, anywhere in the world are minimal.

A few months ago we'd have said the same about airplanes pointing themselves at the ground :uhoh:

I'd agree that the balance of probabilities points towards an explosive at this point, but something like SW1380 but worse is still a possibility.

[Ollie Onion]

The lack of crew contact is the most telling piece, with an engine failure I would think that at some point a mayday would be issued especially when carrying extra crew members. The fact Iran is refusing access to the flight recorders and a statement was made within an hour stating engine failure as the cause are all red flags. Tensions were extremely high just after the missed launch by Iran and it is not outside the realms of possibility that everyone would have been a bit trigger happy towards any perceived threats. I hope it is not the case but the evidence seems to be suggesting something more complicated that a poor
y controlled engine failure.

[Airbubba]

The plane was apparently under control well enough to attempt to return to base.

What do you think indicates that was the case?

In one of the photos published by the Iranian Students' News Agency either the CVR or FDR is visible in what appears to be electronic debris like notebook computers put in a pile. Hope it doesn't get lost or sold for scrap.

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/520x347/61535829_2__d35557028a884e26174d73304feba1563d548333.jpg

[retired guy]

I have thousands or hours on 737s and have trained on all variants up to the -800.
This event looks totally unrelated to any normal or non-normal situation that has been seen before.
An engine fire does not bring down a plane. An engine failure same. Even double engine failure leaves a 737 flyable via manual reversion - the only type in the world that can still do that.
The icing scenario does not fit either. This plane seems to have exploded in mid air prior to impact looking at the vast debris field with burning parts over a large area. The video of what looks like a Concorde last moments is graphic , if true.
Sherlock Holmes said "eliminate the impossible and your are left with the probable"
So what is left?
It is going to be hard since the authorities in Iran are going to have all the evidence and can release what then wish people to think. I believe that even a regime like the one that exists there will have to apply ICAO protocols to the investigation but it will be like pulling teeth.
The one truth that I still believe in here is that the 737 is still one of the best and safest planes every built and this event alas adds fuel to the fire of the narrative that Boeing is bad for you.
Condolences to all aboard. Very sad indeed
Old Timer
Over.....

[PashaF]

What do you think indicates that was the case?

In one of the photos published by the Iranian Students' News Agency either the CVR or FDR is visible in what appears to be electronic debris like notebook computers put in a pile. Hope it doesn't get lost or sold for scrap.

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/520x347/61535829_2__d35557028a884e26174d73304feba1563d548333.jpg

Uhh, as most notebooks has a built in camera, it's only logical to collect them as potential source of data for the investigation.

[Airbubba]

Uhh, as most notebooks has a built in camera, it's only logical to collect them as potential source of data for the investigation.

Don't know if notebook computer cameras would be used much on climbout but I do hope tablets and cellphones will be checked for video and images. Folks do tend to record takeoffs and landings these days even in the darkness.

[AirportPlanner1]

Another possibility for the accident to put out there is that the ground crew were nervous (and perhaps exhausted from the funeral/protest), the pilots wanted to get out while the getting was good, and the plane needed to be deiced. It would not be surprising if people were rushing and made a mistake somewhere.

What sort of mistake with deicing would cause the aircraft to erupt into a fireball?! Accidentally calling over the lighter fluid truck?!

[wasdonkey]

Reuters article posted a few minutes ago...


Western intelligence agencies see no signs Ukraine airliner was shot down - Canadian sourceOTTAWA

Jan 8 (Reuters) - The initial assessment of Western intelligence agencies is that a Ukrainian airliner which crashed in Iran on Wednesday was not brought down by a missile, said a Canadian security source.

The source, who declined to be identified, said the agencies believed the Boeing 737 plane had suffered a technical malfunction. The Ukraine International Airline jet crashed shortly after takeoff from Tehran, killing all 176 people on board.

The disaster occurred shortly after Iran launched a series of missile attacks against two military bases in Iraq that housed U.S. troops.

"The initial assessment of Western intelligence agencies is that the plane was not brought down by a missile. There is no evidence to suggest that," said the source.

The agencies believe the most likely cause of the crash was a malfunction, the source added, saying there was some evidence one of the plane's engines had overheated.

Boeing said it had no additional comment. Earlier, the company said it was in contact with the airline and was ready to assist.

[patrickal]

There was a large explosion, about 2 perhaps 3 seconds prior to impact as seen in the video.
Isn't it quite possible that if a portion (or all) of a wing failed at that point due to aerodynamic forces, that the rapid release of fuel in the slipstream would create a fireball which could be perceived as an explosion? Much like the fireball which erupted at the breakup of the Space Shuttle Challenger was caused by the failure of the main tank. In that case, It appeared to be an explosion, but in true defined terms, it was not.

[Tetsuo]

Quite the debris field.

https://www.isna.ir/amp/98101813851/?__twitter_impression=true

I don't get the large debris field point. It seems that things spread to an area about 270 m long, and it seems the craft contacted a few brick / concrete walls and a concrete water canal along the route. Why do people think that it's unusual to have in pieces?

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/2000x1075/site_ed0f3a77951f6171e317809a04617d7dc43d1981.jpg

[Alty7x7]

If there was some massive and unprecedented uncontained engine failure, it seems it would be evident in the debris field - i.e. the first parts to fall to earth, short of the primary debris field, would be engine or nacelle components. It was a relatively young airplane as well, so not getting near fatigue lives and such.

[Timbo 2019]

There was also the minor matter of Iran having just challenged a nuclear armed superpower, so people were out and about looking for incoming and outgoing missile/jet trails (and perhaps not wanting to risk being burned alive inside of their apartments.)

Another possibility for the accident to put out there is that the ground crew were nervous (and perhaps exhausted from the funeral/protest), the pilots wanted to get out while the getting was good, and the plane needed to be deiced. It would not be surprising if people were rushing and made a mistake somewhere.

Indeed. Not only would Iran's SAM defences been on edge at the time, is it not highly likely that the US would have been overhead watching what was happening?

Perhaps the SAM was intended for a US military spy plane?

It might suit both sides to conceal the cause.

[lomapaseo]

The engine picture on AVHerald has outward bend wholes....
Uncontained engine failure with catastrophic result?

There also seems to be some sort of heat (whitened metal) discoloration visible.....

Any thoughts on that picture?

what picture ?????

[BDAttitude]

what picture ?????
Probably this one:
http://avherald.com/img/uia_b738_ur-psr_tehran_200108_5a.jpg
https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/750x964/uia_b738_ur_psr_tehran_200108_5a_4b932282fe161646f19a98d14bc c73b0d14c44b1.jpg
And I would think no.

[Airbubba]

Image circulating on social media, Babak Taghvaee is an expat Irani aviation writer:

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1920x393/babak_large__6c3432d70443303a3916587f2e7f079fda81b853.jpg

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1920x811/ashkan2_large__8083ee38c17ab6dd1bfb76c738687444616b728f.jpg


https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/900x1200/enx1pljxkaajmio_90696a26d62832b725586bd404ad09985ec94886.jpg

And:

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1633x1080/syrian_military_large__47738fa51c76845c7296e66d772220c8be6fa 83b.jpg

[Ancient Mariner]

In post 120, the discoloration is what nearly molten aluminium looks like.
Per

[Auxtank]

Image circulating on social media, Babak Taghvaee is an expat Irani aviation writer:

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1920x393/babak_large__6c3432d70443303a3916587f2e7f079fda81b853.jpg




https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/900x1200/enx1pljxkaajmio_90696a26d62832b725586bd404ad09985ec94886.jpg



What, and it's taken the whole day for them to find this... yeah, right...Social Media is not a medium to be trusted...
However, as our early Posters will revel in the fact - the pebbles/ stones are the same size as the fragmentation holes on the airframe. We must bear in mind that the whole f'ing World is dumbing down to this sh1T.

Post this image? - I want proof it's taken from the same location as the crash site or it's negligible.
Can you provide a source please, credible and checkable.

[Mark in CA]

Can anyone recall an uncontainable engine failure on a 737 (or equivalent) that:

a) caused a significant inflight fire
b) brought the aircraft down
c) created a crew load such no contact with ATC occurred

- GY
Boeing recently said it was revamping engine cowlings on the Neo to better contain engine failures. This comes as a result of NTSB recommendations after the fatal accident on Southwest Airlines about a year ago when an engine fan blade broke off in flight, punctured a cabin window and sucked a passenger partially out the window, causing the first US passenger fatality in more than a decade. Does it seem unreasonable to think that such a failure, or worse, could puncture the wing and fuel tank resulting in something like this crash? The NTSB also recommended regular inspections of the fan blades in the CFM engines used on this aircraft type. I wonder if Ukraine Airline is doing these inspections.

[EDML]

Possible scenario:

1. Uncontained engine failure of the right engine (e.g. turbine disc, similar to QF 32). Unlikely for a CFM 56 engine but not impossible.
2. Shrapnel from the engine failure damages airframe, tanks, systems, hydraulics and takes out radio, transponder and electronics.
3. Massive fuel leak (similar to QF32)
4. Hydraulic failures make A/C control difficult, therefore wide, descending right turn
5. Aircraft on fire due to fuel leaks
6. Explosion of damaged fuel tank while the plane descends. Explains further, shrapnel like damage.

The root cause is unlikely for the CFM 56 but not impossible.

The rest is easily possible taking into account the massive damage to the A380 on flight QF32. A little less redundancy (and the A380 has got a lot redundancy compared to a 737) and they would have crashed as well.

[Thruster763]

In post 120, the discoloration is what nearly molten aluminium looks like.
Per

The exhaust duct is titanium and corrosion resisting steel not aluminium

[EDML]

What, and it's taken the whole day for them to find this... yeah, right...Social Media is not a medium to be trusted...
However, as our early Posters will revel in the fact - the pebbles/ stones are the same size as the fragmentation holes on the airframe. We must bear in mind that the whole f'ing World is dumbing down to this sh1T.

Post this image? - I want proof it's taken from the same location as the crash site or it's bollocks.

1. After the missile exploded the search head will be gone. Destroyed, evaporated, whatever.
2. The search head would be found where the missile hit - many miles away (if it was a missile) and not at the crash site.

[Joejosh999]

Possible scenario:

1. Uncontained engine failure of the right engine (e.g. turbine disc, similar to QF 32). Unlikely for a CFM 56 engine but not impossible.
2. Shrapnel from the engine failure damages airframe, tanks, systems, hydraulics and takes out radio, transponder and electronics.
3. Massive fuel leak (similar to QF32)
4. Hydraulic failures make A/C control difficult, therefore wide, descending right turn
5. Aircraft on fire due to fuel leaks
6. Explosion of damaged fuel tank while the plane descends. Explains further, shrapnel like damage.

The root cause is unlikely for the CFM 56 but not impossible.

The rest is easily possible taking into account the massive damage to the A380 on flight QF32. A little less redundancy (and the A380 has got a lot redundancy compared to a 737) and they would have crashed as well.

It’s 2 that seems a real long shot....?

[JetStudent]

1. After the missile exploded the search head will be gone. Destroyed, evaporated, whatever.
2. The search head would be found where the missile hit - many miles away (if it was a missile) and not at the crash site.
​​​​There are multiple examples of the same missile type leaving the head intact after the missile explodes, posted in that Twitter thread.

I think it would be wise to avoid making extremely general statements about munitions/weapons that we're not familiar with.

[Auxtank]

1. After the missile exploded the search head will be gone. Destroyed, evaporated, whatever.
2. The search head would be found where the missile hit - many miles away (if it was a missile) and not at the crash site.

The Search Head would be utterly destroyed; by it's own munitions dispersal pattern. I think this is a Search Head from one of the undetonated rockets that failed on the earlier rocket strikes on USA bases. Nothing to do with the aircraft accident.

Social Media at it's best - worst.

[OldnGrounded]

1. After the missile exploded the search head will be gone. Destroyed, evaporated, whatever.
2. The search head would be found where the missile hit - many miles away (if it was a missile) and not at the crash site.

Yes. The chances that the seeker would survive warhead detonation in such good shape don't seem very high. And it shouldn't be anywhere near the crash site.

The social media post and the photos are unconvincing.

[EDMJ]

Boeing recently said it was revamping engine cowlings on the Neo to better contain engine failures. This comes as a result of NTSB recommendations after the fatal accident on Southwest Airlines about a year ago when an engine fan blade broke off in flight, punctured a cabin window and sucked a passenger partially out the window, causing the first US passenger fatality in more than a decade. Does it seem unreasonable to think that such a failure, or worse, could puncture the wing and fuel tank resulting in something like this crash? The NTSB also recommended regular inspections of the fan blades in the CFM engines used on this aircraft type. I wonder if Ukraine Airline is doing these inspections.

Have you got a source for that exact wording, because as far as I know the cowling will never be able to contain an errant blade, only the fan casing will? Moreover,

- the fan appears to me to be too far forward to be able to puncture a wing tank;
- the AD's regarding fan blade attachment on the CFM56 engines have been around for so long that there should be a great deal of awareness around about this issue, to the extent that this shouldn't be an issue anymore;
- the two Southwest aircraft which had uncontained engine failures were 10-15 years old, and the present aircraft is only about 3 years old;
- from a statistical point of view since several years there is a huge amount of B737's with these engines around, logging a tremendous amount of flying hours, yet such a catastrophic engine failure has never happened....

[Airbubba]

I think this is a Search Head from one of the undetonated rockets that failed on the earlier rocket strikes.

A SAM missile search head from a rocket strike? :confused:

[scouse104]

What would happen if a pickle fork failed during climb out? Could this result in something similar?

[EDMJ]

1. After the missile exploded the search head will be gone. Destroyed, evaporated, whatever.
2. The search head would be found where the missile hit - many miles away (if it was a missile) and not at the crash site.

I have my doubts about the relevance of that photo to that incident too, but this notwithstanding

- regarding point 1, how did that (charred) seeker head then end up on the ground in this state?
- regarding point 2, nobody has claimed that if was photographed at the crash site....

[Thruster763]

The Search Head would be utterly destroyed; by it's own munitions dispersal pattern. I think this is a Search Head from one of the undetonated rockets that failed on the earlier rocket strikes on USA bases. Nothing to do with the aircraft accident.

Social Media at it's best - worst.

Well the pictured head is certainly consistent with a TOR -M1 missile and is not from a ballistic missile (too small). There is no reason why the seeker head of the missile would be distroyed in the detonation. It is ahead of the charge and from the photo has a fairly substantial looking domed structure at the rear. It is surprising what close to the charge will survive a detonation. Lots of forensics from detonations have led to convictions in the past. I have personally seen an optical seeker head thar survived detonation remarkably well.

[Ancient Mariner]

The exhaust duct is titanium and corrosion resisting steel not aluminium

In that case, disregard as I have no experience welding titanium and overheated steel does not look like that.
Per

[ErwinS]

Boeing recently said it was revamping engine cowlings on the Neo to better contain engine failures. This comes as a result of NTSB recommendations after the fatal accident on Southwest Airlines about a year ago when an engine fan blade broke off in flight, punctured a cabin window and sucked a passenger partially out the window, causing the first US passenger fatality in more than a decade. Does it seem unreasonable to think that such a failure, or worse, could puncture the wing and fuel tank resulting in something like this crash? The NTSB also recommended regular inspections of the fan blades in the CFM engines used on this aircraft type. I wonder if Ukraine Airline is doing these inspections.

Boeing Neo??/ Ehmmm you mean MAX.

100% sure UIA did those inspections.

[SierraLimaFoxtrot]

Probably this one:


And I would think no.

Observations:

The only 'outward peeling' apparent to me (closest to camera) coincides with a score mark that lines up with the tear in the metal - when i first saw this it looked like something scraped along the surface and ripped the metal up... especially as the 'score' stops at the point the metal would have been if it was still flat against the engine...

Also how does an uncontained engine failure result in debris creating inward facing holes? It is possible these were inflicted on impact, but the same could be said for the tearing mentioned above.

Additionally, an uncontained engine failure could have been the result of external action - so you would have evidence of both outward in and inward out.

[Interflug]

Yes. The chances that the seeker would survive warhead detonation in such good shape don't seem very high. And it shouldn't be anywhere near the crash site.

The social media post and the photos are unconvincing.
9M331 missile heads look like that after explosion of the charge below them. Pictures can be found on the internet from combat use e.g. recently in Syria.
But agreed, no evidence is there to show a link in time and location to the Tehran crash site. The picture could be from anywhere and anytime.

[ATPLApproach]

Quite the debris field.


Using a few aerial photos from your link and Google Maps' 'Measure distance' feature, I found the debris field to be 330 metres (1,080 feet). I don't have forum rights to post my screenshot. :(

[ErwinS]

1. After the missile exploded the search head will be gone. Destroyed, evaporated, whatever.
2. The search head would be found where the missile hit - many miles away (if it was a missile) and not at the crash site.


I tend to disagree
TOR | Lugansk News Today
http://lugansk-news.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/InRussia.jpg (http://lugansk-news.com/tag/tor/)

[Fly Aiprt]

9M331 missile heads look like that after explosion of the charge below them. Pictures can be found on the internet from combat use e.g. recently in Syria.
But agreed, no evidence is there to show a link in time and location to the Tehran crash site. The picture could be from anywhere and anytime.

Here is an example
TOR SAM | Lugansk News Today (http://lugansk-news.com/tag/tor-sam/)


https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/604x604/inrussia_b09c9ecb095dc6b4232b9bd0b87548c1ac2a5ac3.jpg

[Feathers McGraw]

The warhead on the missile is designed to cause an annular blast throwing its folded continuous rod outwards, the explosive force travelling axially towards the seeker head will be significantly reduced. The bolted structure of the seeker is pretty strong, it would not be damaged easily.

Other photos taken near the crash site show an area with 2 parallel low concrete walls quite close together, it is possible that the seeker could have lodged in the airframe and then fallen out during the ground impact sequence.

This is a statement of possibility, like everyone else here I have no magical insight.

[C441]

I would have thought given the acrimony between Iran and the US at the minute that all sorts of surveillance data would available to the US that would have quickly indicated a rocket/missile launch in Iran. Even a quick event such as this would not have gone unnoticed I would have thought thus, unless the US is sitting on it's hands (data), they would quickly have confirmed or discounted the missile theory.

[OldnGrounded]

9M331 missile heads look like that after explosion of the charge below them. Pictures can be found on the internet from combat use e.g. recently in Syria.
But agreed, no evidence is there to show a link in time and location to the Tehran crash site. The picture could be from anywhere and anytime.

OK, I'll bow to superior knowledge, although it's certainly counter-intuitive that the seeker head would be so well preserved after detonation of the warhead and falling from, what 4-5K' AGL here?

[jimmievegas]

Image circulating on social media, Babak Taghvaee is an expat Irani propaganda writer:
Corrected that for you.

[tdracer]

Boeing Neo??/ Ehmmm you mean MAX.

100% sure UIA did those inspections.
Ah, no, he's thinking the 737NG, which is what this thread is about.
That being said, the chance there is any connection between this crash and the Southwest fan blade issue is close to zero.

[OldnGrounded]

I would have thought given the acrimony between Iran and the US at the minute that all sorts of surveillance data would available to the US that would have quickly indicated a rocket/missile launch in Iran. Even a quick event such as this would not have gone unnoticed I would have thought thus, unless the US is sitting on it's hands (data), they would quickly have confirmed or discounted the missile theory.

It's virtually certain that both the US and Iran have comprehensive radar coverage of the relevant airspace and the US will also have satellite imagery. Others may, as well. It seems extremely unlikely that a missile track would not have been recorded somewhere.

[Lord Farringdon]

Well the pictured head is certainly consistent with a TOR -M1 missile and is not from a ballistic missile (too small). There is no reason why the seeker head of the missile would be distroyed in the detonation. It is ahead of the charge and from the photo has a fairly substantial looking domed structure at the rear. It is surprising what close to the charge will survive a detonation. Lots of forensics from detonations have led to convictions in the past. I have personally seen an optical seeker head thar survived detonation remarkably well.

I might be wrong..(gosh, we could all be) but I think the design of these munitions is like shaped charge ie that are very directional. This particular missile system is for killing small fast maneuvering targets (read other rockets) in a defense role. As such it is unlikely to ever be able to actually hit the target directly. It would rely on proximity fusing and a concentrated fragmentation field that is designed to kill a target it may be flying past (crossing paths with) rather than one directly ahead of it. So yeah, the head may have simply been separated at time of charge ignition without actually being hit by the charge. All spec of course but the image gives some clues. 1. the seek head has been separated from the charge without being destroyed by the charge. 2.The seek head appears to have suffered little impact damage suggesting it wasn't attached to the missile body when it hit hit ground.

The assumptions from this seem to suggest this particular round wasn't a dud ie the charge ignited and that since it is a missile defense system, it is not a ballistic missile and is therefore very unlikely to be an image from 'dud' rockets launched by Iran on American bases in Baghdad.

So this seeker head had a starring role in something. But until we can determine where and when it was found, there remains no connection to this 'accident'.

[tdracer]

How will the FAA or Boeing even get the information required to make an informed decision to check the engines if Iran won't cooperate. I am thinking a fleet wide check might come up soon if even the slimmest of information indicates a uncontained engine failure.....

If it was an uncontained engine failure, the high energy debris will remain with +/- 5 degrees of the plane of rotation. Any engine debris outside that arc would have insufficient energy to penetrate the aluminum structure, so any shrapnel holes outside that arc didn't come from the engine.

[Coborn C6]

I would have thought given the acrimony between Iran and the US at the minute that all sorts of surveillance data would available to the US that would have quickly indicated a rocket/missile launch in Iran. Even a quick event such as this would not have gone unnoticed I would have thought thus, unless the US is sitting on it's hands (data), they would quickly have confirmed or discounted the missile theory.

The US appear to be willing to let things die down - hence Trump's "standing down" remark. If they have evidence it was a rocket/missile then saying so now could re-ignite the tension. The evidence could still come out in due course as the investigation progresses.

If it wasn't a rocket/missile then the US have nothing to gain by saying so at the moment. The truth will come out in the investigation, but in the meantime there is no harm to the US position of leaving the cause of the crash as an open question, especially whilst there is speculation of an Iranian own goal.

And possibly the US wouldn't want to reveal exactly what their capabilites are at the moment when it relates to looking at things going on inside Iran.

[Lord Farringdon]

The US appear to be willing to let things die down - hence Trump's "standing down" remark. If they have evidence it was a rocket/missile then saying so now could re-ignite the tension. The evidence could still come out in due course as the investigation progresses.

If it wasn't a rocket/missile then the US have nothing to gain by saying so at the moment. The truth will come out in the investigation, but in the meantime there is no harm to the US position of leaving the cause of the crash as an open question, especially whilst there is speculation of an Iranian own goal.

And possibly the US wouldn't want to reveal exactly what their capabilites are at the moment when it relates to looking at things going on inside Iran.


Agree. All sorts of contradictory statements being made by Iran and Ukraine, social media all over the place, phony attacks on US air bases where it seems missiles were deliberately targeted onto vacant areas of the airfields to avoid casualties, and no doubt a US surveillance system in overdrive that would have spotted a mouse running for cover and would certainly know the whereabouts of any missile system launchers and command modules and if they had been fired.

We may not be in a hot war, but the only thing we can be sure of is that old adage:

"Truth is the first casualty of war".

[PJ2]

Isn't it quite possible that if a portion (or all) of a wing failed at that point due to aerodynamic forces, that the rapid release of fuel in the slipstream would create a fireball which could be perceived as an explosion? Much like the fireball which erupted at the breakup of the Space Shuttle Challenger was caused by the failure of the main tank. In that case, It appeared to be an explosion, but in true defined terms, it was not.
Agree, the term "explosion" was imprecise. What you have described is exactly what I was thinking including the example you used: fire-weakened structural failing under load, likely a wing spilling its load of fuel.

PJ2

[Callsign Kilo]

You can understand that due to the sheer volume of 737 flights worldwide on a daily basis, this devastating crash of a 3 year old airframe in a part of the world that has seen an unprecedented amount of alarming activity in recent days is being regarded by some as slightly more than coincidental.

[JPJP]

If it was an uncontained engine failure, the high energy debris will remain with +/- 5 degrees of the plane of rotation. Any engine debris outside that arc would have insufficient energy to penetrate the aluminum structure, so any shrapnel holes outside that arc didn't come from the engine.

Both of the recent accident aircraft (SW1380 & SWA3472) had high energy debris outside of that arc I believe. Hence the work being carried out on CFM56-7 engines.

Wether that’s relevant to this accident, I don’t know. Happy to be corrected.

[malr]

Since this is the clueless speculation thread:
Why could it not be both?
An engine malfunction and an error of the air defence?

I would expect an engine failure (uncontained or other) would be a natural result of the aircraft being hit with a fragmentation warhead...some of the frag is certain to destroy the engine. It seems plausible that you'd see both frag damage and uncontained engine failure damage.

[slfool]

There is a comprehensive report for the MH17 shootdown that explains the consequences of a SAM strike.

https://www.onderzoeksraad.nl/en/media/attachment/2018/7/10/3ae49217f73breport_mh17_crash_appendix_nlr.pdf

[exosphere]

Sorry gents, but the video posted everywhere showing the last 30 seconds of this tragic flight shows everything but an engine fire. The all thing is a fireball breaking up several times before final impact.

[Sailvi767]

1. After the missile exploded the search head will be gone. Destroyed, evaporated, whatever.
2. The search head would be found where the missile hit - many miles away (if it was a missile) and not at the crash site.

I can tell you that is incorrect the search head would be destroyed. That’s not the way missile warheads function. They are designed to throw out a expanding cone of fragments almost like a big net. They blow straight out from the missile not forward, I would expect the guidance section to survive.
I would not however expect to find the guidance section with the wreckage unless it got embedded with the aircraft.

[Airbubba]

Since this is the clueless speculation thread:
Why could it not be both?
An engine malfunction and an error of the air defence?
737 turns back with engine failure, one engine on fire, looking like a rocket in the night sky.
Now heading TOWARD Tehran coming from a western direction.
SAM batteries around Tehran on highest alert, expecting incoming retaliation strike, less than two hours after they started a volley of rockets toward US bases in Iraq.
...

Actually, quite a plausible scenario!

I agree. If you've ever seen compressor stalls at night, they can make the engine look like it is in afterburner. :eek:

I can see where the gap between the last ADS-B position and the debris field implies a possible right turn back toward the field. But this may have been after an initial explosion as the plane fluttered down out of control in flames. Kinda like the story that has already run about how 'the pilot' avoided the madrassa and crashed the plane into a soccer field instead.

A journalist from an opposition party media operation claims to have verified the turn back to the field through his online forensics:

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/748x647/brown_2_9906d4e0d96b878400dc73f262022110fca03722.jpg
https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/763x644/browne_1_6dd76826dc7c934358852633099f59665915f9f0.jpg

[PoppaJo]

Looks like a Captain , Training Captain and FO up the front. 30,000 737 hours between them.

[fdr]

The 9M331 missile post dates Iran-Iraq 1980-88 round 1 war. the predecessor 9M330 wasn't in inventory in that area as far as I am aware. Iran had 29 TOR M1 systems delivered in January 2007, from a contract signed in 2005. On 7 February 2007 Iran reported successful test firing of the weapon system. It is unlikely that a planned test firing of a short range system such as the SA15 Gauntlet is done in a manner that results in the photo that has been shown on social media and this forum. (the location.... not the condition).

The war head of the 9M331 is aft of the forward control vanes, and is a 15kg blast frag device. The head of the missile is not a seeker head as such, it is a passive radar guided system, reportedly not a beam rider, so there is a datalink going on giving course corrections. The TALR launch vehicle has two radar systems, an acquisition radar, and a fire control-tracking radar. The acquisition is able to track multiple targets at one time, the FCR can reportedly manage 2 missiles at one time. In operation, if fired deliberately against a single target, a delayed one-two launch would be employed for maximum PK, with a time interval that would act to negate a target notching to defeat a single missile. A single launched missile would possibly be an accidental launch, a double shot would more likely be deliberate.

My previous concerns are allayed to an extent, not identifying a possible device would be potentially escalatory in effect to the crazies on both sides of this match. An accidental shoot down is not in the highly improbable end of the Venn diagram of factors in the loss, given Iran was undertaking an attack on a neighbour, and had reasonable concerns of a further counter attack. The human tragedy is not diminished by any means, a lot of families and futures just got torn up, either by an accidental shoot down in a dark time in international politics, or by unknown technical causation. If so, it is hardly an unforeseeable consequence of the action taken against Gen. Sulemani; once "rifle" is called, stuff is going to happen, and more often than not it is not as desired, but causing heightened tension with people that have sophisticated weapon systems is a risk. Recall CG-49, the Ticonderoga class USS Vincennes, Capt Will Rogers III, and Iran Air 655; that was a similar level of stress and a really bad outcome, with a high tech system, and humans acting under stress.

I sincerely hope that it was none of the above, and that we find some novel failure mode of a HPT/LPT that resulted in the disaster, that at least can be then rectified, but as yet there is no rupture evidence to support an engine fault.

[lomapaseo]

Boeing, CFM and Ukraine Air will be quite anxious to fix anything wrong with the engine or aircraft. Ukraine has access to the crash site and most evidence and I am confident they will share that with the manufacturers in the interest of flight safety. The lack of such evidence may be food for all kinds of political discussion.

Give it a week

PS
That was one hell of an inflight fire to take out the broad leading edges of the wing, Not seen one that severe in commercial service

[Winemaker]

I can tell you that is incorrect the search head would be destroyed. That’s not the way missile warheads function. They are designed to throw out a expanding cone of fragments almost like a big net. They blow straight out from the missile not forward, I would expect the guidance section to survive.
I would not however expect to find the guidance section with the wreckage unless it got embedded with the aircraft.
The continuous rod warhead is pretty common in anti-aircraft missiles; effectively a charge expands a structure of end welded rods at right angles to the flight path, generating a circle of steel of large diameter. If it intercepts the aircraft before it flies apart it acts like a saw blade. Here's a drawing. With a shaped charge it seems possible for the guide head to survive as the end is probably designed to direct the explosive force to fling the rod(s) out.

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/317x590/rod_aa225648b99e296b26f7fb9cdd50d1b2ee1607f9.jpg

[meleagertoo]

I'm not at all sure one can assume that the direction of ground impact has any correlation whatsoever to the direction of flight before an assumed muissile strike. If a wing comes off and the wreckage rolls and spins on the way doen it could hit the ground on any heading imaginable regardless of where it started from.

Let's be careful about such assumptions.

[Lord Farringdon]

I'm not at all sure one can assume that the direction of ground impact has any correlation whatsoever to the direction of flight before an assumed muissile strike. If a wing comes off and the wreckage rolls and spins on the way doen it could hit the ground on any heading imaginable regardless of where it started from.

Let's be careful about such assumptions.

Agree. The poster above who analysed the direction the aircraft landed in, determined a right turn was initiated immediately after the transponder data ceased and this found the aircraft on its final heading.

Controlability after the event that stopped the transponder transmissions may have led to a descending spiral from which the pilots couldn't recover.

However, without any crew communication to ATC, what the the pilots intentions were may never be known unless Iran releases a translated CVR transcript....and I'm not not holding my breath on that one!

[Ka6crpe]

I'm not at all sure one can assume that the direction of ground impact has any correlation whatsoever to the direction of flight before an assumed muissile strike. If a wing comes off and the wreckage rolls and spins on the way doen it could hit the ground on any heading imaginable regardless of where it started from.

Let's be careful about such assumptions.
An early video taken from a cell phone shows the aircraft in a steep spiral as it came down. it certainly did not look like a controlled turn.

[capngrog]

PS
That was one hell of an inflight fire to take out the broad leading edges of the wing, Not seen one that severe in commercial service

Where did you see a photograph of a wing?

Regards,
Grog

[jolihokistix]

"Flight data from the Ukrainian Airlines Boeing 737-800 is openly available online. It shows that the plane climbed normally after taking-off from Tehran. It reached nearly 8,000ft (2,400m) before the aircraft's data suddenly disappears. According to a former air crash investigator, any suggestion of engine failure feels premature. This possibility can't be ruled out at this early stage but an airliner such as the Boeing 737-800 is designed to keep flying if there is an engine failure.
Plus, if there was a failure then we would normally expect the flight data to show the plane's climb becoming less steep."
See altitude data graphic.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51042326

[568]

A couple of questions for 737 drivers or mechanics.

What systems on a 737-800 would be affected by losing engine 2?
What antenna does ADS-B use?

The sudden loss of ADS-B data and no apparent mayday call from the crew indicate that whatever happened was immediate and catastrophic.


Firstly, thoughts and prayers for the families of this tragedy.



ADS-B uses output from the Dual GPS.

Hydraulics:

3 Systems: SYSTEM A, SYSTEM B, STANDBY SYSTEM

SYSTEM A & B operates independently

SYSTEM B and STANDBY are connected through a hydraulic servicing line
The Bleed air supplies air pressure to System A & B reservoir.
Fuel in the main wing tank help cool the hydraulic fluid A & B with help of a Heat Exchanger.
An engine driven pump supplies about 6 times the volume of hydraulic fluid of an electric driven pump.

SYSTEM A

Powered by Engine 1 hydraulic pump and an electric pump powered by IDG 2. It supplies power to :
- Primary flight controls (Ailerons, Elevator & Feel, Rudder)
- Engine 2 thurst reverser
- Autopilot A
- Two flight spoilers on each wing
- Ground spoilers
- Nose wheel steering
- Alternate Brakes
- Landing Gear
- Power Transfer Unit

LOSS OF SYSTEM A
With the loss of system A the following systems are inoperative :
- Autopilot A
- 2 Flight spoilers on each wing and all ground spoilers
- Normal landing gear extention and retraction
Considerations :
- Single autopilot = CAT III not available
- Plan a manual gear extension
- Once extended the gear will not retract again ( decreased G/A performance, additional fuel burn )
- Ground spoilers unavailable, increased landing distance
POWER TRANSFER UNIT
When System B pressure is low, In flight with flaps 1 - 15, PTU control valve opens and supplies power
from system A to system B with help of standby fluid.
The purpose of the PTU is to supply power to operate the autoslats and the leading edge flaps and slats.
SYSTEM A FLUID LEAK
Hydraulic fluid to the engine 1 hydraulic pump is supplied by the system A reservoir via a standpipe.
Should a leak occur in the engine 1 hydraulic pump the system A level would decrease to about 20%.
Should a leak occur in the system A electric hydraulic all system A pressure is lost.
A leak in engine 1 hydraulic pump would not prevent operation of the PTU

SYSTEM B
Powered by Engine 2 hydraulic pump and an electric pump powered by IDG 1. It supplies power to :

- Primary flight controls (Aileron, Elevator & Feel, Rudder)
- Engine 2 thrust reverser
- Autopilot B
- Autoslats, Leading edge flaps and slats
- Trailing edge flaps
- Two flight spoilers on each wing
- Normal brakes
- Alternate Nose Wheel Steering
- Landing Gear Transfer Unit
- Yaw Damper

LOSS OF SYSTEM B
With the loss of system B the following systems are inoperative :
- Autopilot B
- 2 Flight spoilers on each wing
- Yaw damper
- Normal leading edge and trailing edge flaps

LANDING GEAR TRANSFER UNIT
In case of engine 1 failure during takeoff, with the landing gear lever selected up and either main landing
gear not up and locked system A assists landing gear retraction via the landing gear transfer unit.

SYSTEM B FLUID LEAK
Any leak downstream of the system B resevoir will cause the loss of system B pressure.
However there remains sufficient fluid for the operation of the PTU.
STANDBY SYSTEM
The standby system is linked to the system B reservoir.
If a leak occurs in the standby system, the system B reservoir level will decrease to approx 72%.
A standby electric pump provides backup hydraulic power to :
- Engine 1 & 2 thrust reversers
- Standby rudder
- Leading edge flaps & slats ( extension only )
- Standby yaw damper ( loss of system A & B )

[lapp]

The continuous rod warhead is pretty common in anti-aircraft missiles; effectively a charge expands a structure of end welded rods at right angles to the flight path, generating a circle of steel of large diameter.


Thank you for the explanation and drawing. If this type of weapon was used it should be possible to find debris from the rods ring, even if very far from the crash location. It should have a peculiar look, that even without mentioning the guiding head. It is also possible that Iran authorities want and manage to keep such a finding secret, although from images one can't see significant military presence.

[568]

Clearly, the cause remains unknown at the moment- but why no radio calls from the aircraft?

if a fire or mechanical failure had occurred, there would certainly have been a call.

Whatever happened, seems to have immediately brought normal comms to an abrupt end.

Therefore a shootdown, or possibly an onboard explosive device must be the most likely explanation.
Boeing have had their troubles recently, but their aircraft do not spontaneously self combust.

Having looked at the pictures of the debris field and what's left of the aircraft (look at the centre wing tank section) I would suspect the following:

1) SAM
2) On board explosive

In a word, terrible.
Time for the world to "get it together".

[rattman]

Initial crash report

https://www.cao.ir/news/organizatioal/detail?public_content=27450&title=%DA%AF%D8%B2%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%B4-%D8%A7%D9%88%D9%84%D9%8A%D9%87-%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%B1%D8%B3%D9%8A-%D8%B3%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AD%D9%87--%D9%BE%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%B2-752--%D8%B4%D8%B1%DA%A9%D8%AA-%D9%87%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%BE%D9%8A%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%8A%D9%8A-%D8%A7%DA%A9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%8A%D9%86%D9%8A-%D9%85%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%B4%D8%B1-%D8%B4%D8%AF

use chrome to translate

[marchino61]

The report confirms that Iran has invited the USA to take part in the investigation.

[segfault]

Translation:

Initial report of 752 Ukrainian Airlines Flight Accident Report released
0 views | Release Time: January 23, 2010 at 9:50 pm

The preliminary report on the accident investigation of the Ukrainian plane was released by the National Aviation Accident Investigation Team.
Ali Abedzadeh, head of the National Aviation Authority, said in a statement that measures taken since the launch of the investigation so far are based on a number of key issues, including: gathering preliminary information, setting up a crisis management team in the area, dispatching rescue teams to search and rescue sites, The first steps were to get passengers information from the airline and other authorities, such as the Migration Police, identifying the accident investigator and dispatching the accident team to the scene, Imam Khomeini Airport and Mehrabad Airport.Initial notification of the accident was carried out and according to the Code of Conduct for Civil Aviation Accidents and Incidents approved by the Cabinet, 11 accident investigation teams were formed.

The head of the civil aviation agency said: flight recorders (black boxes) have been found and have been handed over to the accident investigator. Documentation and evidence of the crash site were reviewed and the remaining parts of the aircraft were collected and transported to a safe location. Black boxes containing the Flight Recorder (FDR) and the cockpit voice recorder (CVR) were found by search and rescue agents and are in the possession of the accident investigation team. Both devices were damaged by accident and fire. There is memory in both devices, but physical damage is visible on them.

Abedzadeh stated that the Accident Investigation Team, in accordance with the standards set forth in annex 13 of the Chicago Convention, invited all States recognized as beneficiaries of this document to introduce their representatives in the disaster investigation process and now designate their own specialized team. And they are in the process of sending their aircraft to Iran to carry out their duties.

Describing the flight conditions of the aircraft, he said: "The aircraft first rises to an altitude of 8,000 feet and then the aircraft's information is removed from the radar screen and the aircraft collides with the ground and collapses. No radio messages were received by the pilot regarding unusual circumstances. According to eyewitness reports (people on the ground and high-altitude flight crew who observed and reported the incident), a fire was observed and added to the range, and after the aircraft collided with the ground, an explosion caused a collision. The crash happened and the plane's trajectory indicates that the plane was initially heading westward, turning right after the problem and was on its way back to the airport at the time of the crash.

He further said: "The accident site documentation shows that the plane's first collision with the ground was in the grounds of an amusement park. Has been.

Abedzadeh continued: Initial notification was given to Ukraine as the country of registration of the aircraft, the United States as the manufacturer, Sweden and Canada as the applicant countries whose nationals were in the aircraft, and Ukraine requested to be involved in the accident review process. Has introduced a team to participate in the disaster investigation, identification and transfer of the bodies of its nationals and other duties under the circumstances of the registrant and exploiter country, whose representatives will soon arrive in the country.

He said the plane had 167 passengers and nine crew members, all of whom died in the crash. There were 146 passengers with Iranian passports, 10 with Afghan passports, 5 with Canadian passports, 4 with Swedish passports, and 2 with Ukrainian passports and 9 flight crews, all of whom were Ukrainian nationals.

The head of the Civil Aviation Authority also said: "Some passengers may have multiple nationalities and be reported in another report with another nationality." The above list relates to a passport that left the Islamic Republic of Iran. The bodies and remains of the occupants were identified and transported to forensic medicine under the supervision of judicial authorities for identification and transfer formalities.

By gathering and completing the information, he said, the latest findings of the accident investigation will be formally published and publicly available.

The scheduled flight of Boeing 752 to Tehran-Kyiv Boeing 737-800 from the Ukrainian International Airlines with a UR-PSR registration mark departing from the park at 5:45 minutes and departing at 06:13 on Wednesday. 2010/8/18 Flight from Imam Khomeini Airport Runway. The above flight, under the control of the Imam Khomeini Airport Watch Tower, continued to climb, then delivered to the Mehrabad Flight Approximation Unit and was allowed to rise to 26,000 feet. After cutting off communication with the traffic control unit at 6:18 pm near Saba Shahr, Tehran province fell.

Abedzadeh at the end criticized some of the material published in the cyber space regarding the accident of the Ukrainian plane and the issue of the black boxes on the plane. Failure to send overseas flight registration boxes was a mistake taken by the reporter.

[ATC Watcher]

Well, finally a bit of new info in that report : the aircraft fire/problems was also observed from the air , the FDR/CVR will be investigated in the usual normal way with the usual international investigation teams, Aircraft was transferred from TWR to APP sector in ACC with standard communications, and under radar control , so we will know what happened.. The report does not looks like a cover up and tend to give us facts . This does not really fit the rogue missile theory or mistaken identity . Mehrabad ACC is a joint military site , sharing the same radar data .
My guess if it was a missile , the military would of course know and the regime would react differently. A bomb or explosives on board is still a possibility though..But with an international team coming to the site in the next days , we will know soon I think

[MAINJAFAD]

It's virtually certain that both the US and Iran have comprehensive radar coverage of the relevant airspace and the US will also have satellite imagery. Others may, as well. It seems extremely unlikely that a missile track would not have been recorded somewhere.

Unless the USAF or Saudis had an E-3 up and on their boarder the chances of seeing anything over central Iran is ZERO.

[Airbubba]

Unless the USAF or Saudis had an E-3 up and on their boarder [sic] the chances of seeing anything over central Iran is ZERO.

Really? ;)

[DrCuffe]

Re the front end of a missile located at some distance from the crash site: I would think that the damage pattern from a continuous rod warhead, which this would imply, would not be consistent with the "holes" seen. I think the higher resolution image showing that some of the "inward pointing holes" turned out to be stones on the wing is very significant.

[Maninthebar]

Unless the USAF or Saudis had an E-3 up and on their boarder the chances of seeing anything over central Iran is ZERO.

The US (and allies) will have every possible surveillance asset trained on Iranian airspace currently.

If this event has involved a missile the current (lack of ) reaction is surprising

[bud leon]

My guess if it was a missile , the military would of course know and the regime would react differently. A bomb or explosives on board is still a possibility though.

There is a very limited number of scenarios that could result in this event. The focus clearly appears to be on de-escalation and treating this like any other aircraft incident is the best way for parties to de-escalate.

[DaveReidUK]

See altitude data graphic.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51042326

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/667x469/_110441168_optimised_iran_crash_alt_nc_2__6bbe0a6c39b70a890e 98cd77308f3f27d5277661.png


Hmmmmmmmmmmm.

[A30_737_AEWC]

Indeed. Not only would Iran's SAM defences been on edge at the time, is it not highly likely that the US would have been overhead watching what was happening?

Perhaps the SAM was intended for a US military spy plane?

It might suit both sides to conceal the cause.

So you posit that the Iranian SAM defence batteries :
(i) do not have the capability to identify 'non-threats' in the broad terminal area of one of its major commercial airports, and
(ii) identified an (unknown) foreign aircraft/air vehicle incursion in that same airspace at around that time that they considered it appropriate to respond to with a SAM ?

Any air defence system worth its salt has the capability to sort the 'wheat from the chaff' so to speak. Commercial RPT flights that squawk on what is effectively a civilian version of a IFF system shouldn't be processed as a target for the system to respond to.

[ETOPS]

This pic of a spent TOR-M1 warhead will have to be explained by the Iranians..


https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/634x637/23174966_0_image_m_37_1578534181449_d4a162bad594f2c644f4c377 9ccd892441edee9b.jpg

[Jo90]

It's 40 years since I operated through Teheran but I still remember well how the place is surrounded by some pretty high terrain. No pilot needing to make a quick return from the position of the incident would voluntarily make a right turn. All the traffic pattern is to the south where the terrain is relatively level.

[MechEngr]

Re the front end of a missile located at some distance from the crash site: I would think that the damage pattern from a continuous rod warhead, which this would imply, would not be consistent with the "holes" seen. I think the higher resolution image showing that some of the "inward pointing holes" turned out to be stones on the wing is very significant.
From Wikipedia, the TOR M1 is designed for missile intercept, so a rod armament seems unlikely; it's more likely to use the equivalent of buckshot to create a cloud of projectiles rather than a ring. The same article lists the warhead as Frag-HE, though photos in the Wikipedia page show a curve to the guidance head while the photos here seem very conical. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tor_missile_system#9K331_Tor_M1 However the system can also use the 9M330, which looks very much like the photo of the fragment. https://uk.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%A2%D0%BE%D1%80_(%D0%97%D0%A0%D0%9A)#/media/%D0%A4%D0%B0%D0%B9%D0%BB:Surface-to-air_guided_missile_9M330.jpg

The ring-rod system seems more ideal for high-altitude shootdown of aircraft and not useful for a short range defense against missiles.

I make no claim that a missile of any kind was involved, but if the TOR M1 was, it was certainly capable of bringing the plane down and would leave a lot of small holes.

[FollowTheSupper]

Hmmmm... curious how the head of the missile, following an explosive separation from the body, (which from the charred remains seems to have left it with questionable aerodynamic symmetry), managed to land:a. Flat (rather than with a nose down component induced by the aft fins).
b. With zero axial or transverse velocity (suggested by the lack of disturbed earth around it).
c. Positioned almost exactly in the centre of a comparatively narrow ditch.
d. Aligned with the ditch axis to within a degree or so.
e. Without transferring any chips or scrapes to the surrounding brickwork from the body and fins.
f. Without causing any accumulations against the brickwork of ejected stones or soil, etc., from what must have been a fairly healthy impact.
... rather brings to mind the old rule about camouflage: "There are no straight lines in nature...!", which sought to alert the unwary to possible human interference in the immediate surroundings...

[Mozella]

So you posit that the Iranian SAM defence batteries :
(i) do not have the capability to identify 'non-threats' in the broad terminal area of one of its major commercial airports, and
(ii) identified an (unknown) foreign aircraft/air vehicle incursion in that same airspace at around that time that they considered it appropriate to respond to with a SAM ?

Any air defence system worth its salt has the capability to sort the 'wheat from the chaff' so to speak. Commercial RPT flights that squawk on what is effectively a civilian version of a IFF system shouldn't be processed as a target for the system to respond to.Don’t ever underestimate the ability for humans to make mistakes or otherwise screw up. I lived in Iran for a number of years working as in instructor pilot for the F-14 program. The ability for Iranians to commit blunders was astounding. The first in-country F-14 flight performed by an Iranian pilot resulted in two million dollars’ worth of damage during the very first landing attempt in spite of me warning this particular Major not to try landing the Tomcat like he normally (incorrectly) landed his F-5. I’m still dumbfounded at some of the things the Iranian pilots and other IIAF personnel did. That was many years ago, but recent events tell me that not much has changed since then.

Of course, mistakes/blunders are to be found in any organization. The shoot-down of Iran Air 655 by the U.S.S. Vincennes is a perfect example. The Navy crew made a tragic mistake, but the pilots of the Iran Air flight put themselves and their passengers at risk by operating a civilian flight in an area of military hostilities. Naturally, that doesn’t justify what happened, but it does show how unintended consequences can lead to tragedy when civilians enter a zone considered hostile by a military force.

I wonder if the Ukraine 737 crew was aware of the fact that they were starting their flight shortly after a ballistic missile attack launched by Iran? It strikes me that every surface-to-air missile site in Iran would have been on high alert at that moment just like the crew of the Vincennes was years earlier. You say that any air defense system can easily “separate the wheat from the chaff”. True, but the Aegis system and the crew on the Vincennes failed to do so, didn’t they?

I remember looking down when turning final at Mehrabad International Airport, then a joint use airport and the only one serving Teheran at the time. The Iranians had just installed the British Rapier short range missile defense system. The crew manning the sites around the airport perimeter tracked us every time we landed and I assume they tracked plenty of civilian aircraft too. These were live missiles and we were one switch away from being accidentally shot down. Based on the crazy blunders I saw each day; I was rightfully nervous.

Could an excited Iranian missile defense site commander or one of his underlings get trigger happy and finish off an airliner with an engine fire, perhaps not showing an IFF code and making an unusual flight path toward the capitol city of Teheran? Unlikely, but so are many accidental shoot-downs.

[Bristolhighflyer]

Danilov: "We are studying the version of the defeat of the Ukrainian" Boeing "anti-aircraft missile of the Russian SAM" Tor "and intend to look for fragments of the rocket"NSDC Secretary Alexei Danilov in a comment on censor net reported:A commission on the UIA plane crash in Tehran includes experts involved in an international investigation into the attack by Russian troops on Malaysian MF-17 on July 17, 2014.
"According to the decision of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, the State Commission for Investigation of the Boeing Accident arrived at Tehran tonight. The group consists of 45 people, representing 12 ministries and agencies.

A meeting is currently underway with the participation of representatives of the competent authorities of Iran, including Iran's ICAO, an international civil aviation organization. Different versions of a sudden plane crash are studied, among the main ones:

- the defeat of the aircraft by an anti-aircraft missile (SAM), in particular, "Thor" SAM, as information on the detection of fragments of a Russian missile near the crash site has already appeared on the Internet;

- collision with a UAV or other flying object;

- destruction and explosion of the engine for technical reasons;

- explosion inside the plane as a result of a terrorist attack.

The commission includes experts involved in an international investigation into the attack by Russian servicemen on the Malaysian Boeing MN-17 on July 17, 2014 in the airspace of Ukraine, as well as the examination of fragments of the Russian anti-aircraft missile "Buk" that shot down a Malaysian aircraft. As you know, our experts have shown a high level of professionalism in this matter.

Our commission is currently agreeing with the Iranian authorities on the issue of the site of the disaster, and intends to search the fragments of the Russian anti-aircraft rocket "Thor" according to the data that was published on the Internet. We use all the experience of investigating the attack on the Boeing MN-17 to establish the truth in the case of the death of a Ukrainian aircraft in Tehran.

We are currently conducting effective diplomatic talks with the Iranian side, there is every reason to hope for cooperation on all issues, including the participation of our commission in deciphering the "black boxes" of our aircraft. The investigation into the deaths of Ukrainian citizens is under the personal control of the President of Ukraine, and we will immediately inform the Ukrainian society and the media of any data that may be published. "

( I am not permitted to post the link, it is on censor net )

[Mark in CA]

Have you got a source for that exact wording, because as far as I know the cowling will never be able to contain an errant blade, only the fan casing will? Moreover,

- the fan appears to me to be too far forward to be able to puncture a wing tank;
- the AD's regarding fan blade attachment on the CFM56 engines have been around for so long that there should be a great deal of awareness around about this issue, to the extent that this shouldn't be an issue anymore;
- the two Southwest aircraft which had uncontained engine failures were 10-15 years old, and the present aircraft is only about 3 years old;
- from a statistical point of view since several years there is a huge amount of B737's with these engines around, logging a tremendous amount of flying hours, yet such a catastrophic engine failure has never happened....

[Boeing] said “enhancements are being introduced” to inlet and fan cowls to improve “their ability to withstand an engine fan blade out event as well as to increase the overall capability of these structures.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/19/ntsb-calls-on-boeing-to-redesign-some-737s-after-deadly-2018-southwest-accident.html

[MechEngr]

It's 40 years since I operated through Teheran but I still remember well how the place is surrounded by some pretty high terrain. No pilot needing to make a quick return from the position of the incident would voluntarily make a right turn. All the traffic pattern is to the south where the terrain is relatively level.
This plane operated from Imam Khomeini International, 10 miles to the south-southwest of Mehrabad International Airport within Tehran proper. The Imam Khomeini airport didn't open until May 2004.

Your memory out of Tehran is correct - those mountains are very impressive.

In looking at the area it seems so ordinary. Malls, a go-kart track, car wash, furniture store, just like any other suburb. It's amazing that there weren't casualties on the ground. There are hundreds of houses the plane might have hit.

There's a CNN photo with a water tower in the background that I'm trying to match with Google Earth.

[Repos]

This plane operated from Imam Khomeini International, 10 miles to the south-southwest of Mehrabad International Airport within Tehran proper. The Imam Khomeini airport didn't open until May 2004.

Your memory out of Tehran is correct - those mountains are very impressive.

In looking at the area it seems so ordinary. Malls, a go-kart track, car wash, furniture store, just like any other suburb. It's amazing that there weren't casualties on the ground. There are hundreds of houses the plane might have hit.

There's a CNN photo with a water tower in the background that I'm trying to match with Google Earth.


I think its at 35°33'33.36"N - 51° 6'8.87"E

[DaveReidUK]

I think its at 35°33'33.36"N - 51° 6'8.87"E

Yes, I identified the coordinates where the v/stab came down (35.5596 51.1045) in an earlier post which the mods seem to have deleted. The water tower is about 200 meters WSW of that point.

[RustyToad]

[QUOTE=NutLoose;10657824"Ukranian passenger jet crashed after being hit by Iranian TOR M1 missile"[/QUOTE]

A blog written in broken English, written by a guy with a Russian name, using a gmail address as a primary contact?

Yup, I think that one scores slightly lower than Twitter on the credibility scale.

For a real response to this image, check the AVHerald reporting on the crash. It looks unrelated to the crash.

[andrasz]

One would expect such a collision to cause power cuts somewhere in the city. There were no reports of such.

From the video it appears that the aircraft was flying (under what degree of control is another story) at some altitude above the ground (certainly higher than power lines) up till the point of the big flare-up, then plunged to the ground in seconds. One may propose an educated guess that the flare-up was the result of an in-flight structural failure releasing fuel (or the existing fire progressed to the point of igniting one of the fuel tanks), from there the wreckage fell on a ballastic trajectory. Soot on parts of the wreckage (eg. VS) with no adjacent ground fire traces support this.

Of course the key remaining question is what caused the initial fire and the apparent total loss of electrical systems. I doubt the CVR/FDR will be of much use, both would have stopped recording at the time of electrical failure.

Have said it before, but with all the noise on the thread it is now deeply burried so let me repeat: in a totalitarian society (and let's not open a debate whether Iran is one) EVERYTHING that appears in formal news outlets is controlled by the authorities. I would find it extremely unlikely that if any Iranian military unit would have committed such a blunder (which by itself is not at all inconceivable), free access would have been given to local press to the wreckage, and photos permitted to be published. Were that the case, by sunrise authorties would have known in full detail what happened, and as a knee jerk reaction would have done everything in their power to supress incriminating information.

[physicus]

DaveReidUK the profile you posted looks like a perfectly normal takeoff profile including acceleration phase. or am I missing something?

[FlyingRoland]

DaveReidUK the profile you posted looks like a perfectly normal takeoff profile including acceleration phase. or am I missing something?

You are right. Looks like all was normal until something suddenly happened. Airspeed graph also shows normal speeds for a 2 engine climb out .

(I have been captain on 737 for 11 years)

[DaveReidUK]

DaveReidUK the profile you posted looks like a perfectly normal takeoff profile including acceleration phase. or am I missing something?


https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/667x469/_110441168_optimised_iran_crash_alt_nc_2__f8c5ea04f59f9761c3 b068a14d431e2851aa06b8.jpg

Yes, you're missing the fact that the first part of the profile (to around 02:42:34) is pure fiction. The aircraft was on the runway until that point; the BBC would have us believe that it climbed steadily from SL to the airfield altitude (3300').

Why they didn't simply truncate the graph so that it started at the point of rotation, I don't know.

[Lord Farringdon]

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1600x1067/iran_plane_crash_0108_aa419e2e75c06ff639044ce8069b89e7a9cf65 c9.jpg
https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1600x1067/iran_plane_crash_0108_restricted_3dad80ea42a3280ed3605c8505e 1c4a7bfd5c7e0.jpg

It seems while searching for victims rescuers have turned over the VS as part of their search. There is very clearly a hole punched through from the right hand side and exiting the left hand side. Yes of course this could have occurred on impact but still eerily similar to the type of holes seen on MH17. I also note that the left hand side has had much of the paint burnt off while the right hand side seems unscorched by comparison. A post crash fire would have burnt and sooted both sides to one degree or another and more molten metal would be seen, So I assess this burning of the left hand side to have occurred in flight. This indicates the left hand side the aircraft was on fire and quite severely given the paint had burnt off.

The sideways nature of the puncture hole means its cause cannot reasonably be attributed to loose debris trailing from further forward of the aircraft eg exploding turbine or fan blade. . Based on the left hand side scorching it is likely that most loose debris (which could be seen trailing in the video) would have presumably come down the left hand side of the aircraft so again it is not reasonable to assume the right to left sideways puncture came from debris.

So the hole either occurred in the post flight impact or by some externals source whilst in flight.

I have also attached an image of the right wing tip and remaining winglet. As might be expected it appears to have escaped the fire. The lack of underside wingtip scratching suggests at least that it wasn't a right wing down impact. The crew then either had some control to stop the right hand turn and wings level prior to impact or alternatively no control as the aircraft wobbled through increasing aerodynamic challenges as flying surfaces were destroyed by the intense fire.

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1600x1067/iran_plane_crash_0108_restricted2_e01ce15c3d4be23d9bc4bf1a53 98d6031f05e4f0.jpg

below is the the APU and HS surfaces: The assembly has come to rest upside down as far as I can tell. Again fire seems to be associated with the left hand side and the intensity has melted through the leading edge and some of the side too. While the right hand leading edge cant be seen, the general condition of the RH HS seems less affected by fire.Again, I assess that this damage was as a result of inflight fire not post impact fire. Note the puncture hole in about the centre of the exposed RH spar.(Remember the assembly is upside down so right is on the left and left is on the right!).
https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1600x1067/iran_plane_crash_7_d60261ee941c57ac0fd6e2c2d299ff66c5320035. jpg
https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1600x1067/iran_plane_crash_0108_6_c0e2992e2aab16d7af63c611f84484fea7f9 853c.jpg

Finally, these three images of the what I am guessing is the remains of 2L. Note the white streaks around the frame. More evidence of the intensity of the fire on that side of the aircraft. The RH engine tail cone and aft cowling. (can someone confirm this is in fact the RH. I am assuming so since it appears less burnt. Note the hole.Finally a portion of what I guess is the left hand side of the cabin with paint burnt off.

Assessment: Suspicious looking holes on the right hand side of the aircraft, fire on the left. What else can we glean?

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1600x1028/iran_plane_crash_0108_8_96d3df204640c11a0a5e7f0e3c1a04437f53 fc5b.jpg

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1600x1067/iran_plane_crash_0108_5_81317c778d6452e8af95395725d5598c6e84 0d70.jpg
https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1600x1067/iran_plane_crash_0108_3_45843aceb9f42e9c1c01b2969a8d40e9a165 8000.jpg

[SASless]

A SAM Head is found DURING the search of the downed aircraft crash site in Tehran, in a crash that took place during a very tense period of time due to Iran launching missiles into Iraq, with unusual puncture evidence, the Iranians do not want to release the CVR and Data Recorder, and we are wanting to look at something other than what is patently obvious?

When it looks like a Duck, waddles like a Duck, and quacks like a Duck.....you know...it might just be a Duck!


https://defence-blog.com/news/ukrainian-passenger-jet-crashed-after-being-hit-by-iranian-tor-m1-missile.html

[TB SE]

Correct me if I'm wrong but if you "spend" a warhead, can it be lying intact? If you see it, it's not "spent". Source, validity and location of the photo should be verified.

this type of missiles warhead looks exactly like that on infonapalm website pictures of spent Tor warheads taken in Ukraine.

[Prada]

Just did a small calculation. The plane must have been airborn for about 3 minutes and 30 seconds after last Flightradar contact info. It must have been burning at least for minute before impact. As it took about 30 seconds at least for a person who noticed unusual event, to react, make decision to record, to take out a phone and start to record. After what we have last 30 seconds of flight on video.

[DaveReidUK]

the Iranians do not want to release the CVR and Data Recorder

They haven't said that at all, all they have said is that wherever the recorders go for analysis, it won't be to the USA.

[EDML]

Furthermore it is not confirmed where the search head was found and how it got there.

[Auxtank]

LE Slats deployed?

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/612x475/nfgxngx_4d3ec51cd39573187dc10dcfde41f723eceaf935.jpg

[aterpster]

They haven't said that at all, all they have said is that wherever the recorders go for analysis, it won't be to the USA.
They have also said some of the recorder memory is damaged.

[DaveReidUK]

They have also said some of the recorder memory is damaged.

I'd have been surprised if the memory module container (the cylindrical box to which the acoustic beacon is attached) was in pristine condition. That doesn't necessarily mean that the data can't be retrieved successfully.

I sincerely hope that they haven't tried to open it, instead of leaving it to the experts.

[EDML]

I'd have been surprised if the memory module container (the cylindrical box to which the acoustic beacon is attached) was in pristine condition. That doesn't necessarily mean that the data can't be retrieved successfully.

I sincerely hope that they haven't tried to open it, instead of leaving it to the experts.

The accident reports by the Iran's CAO are all done in a professional way. Therefore I am pretty sure they know how to handle a FDR/CVR.

[SASless]

EDML,

Pretty quick thinking on someone's part to publish that photo of the Seeker Head.....was it taken into evidence by the Iranian authorities....the Seeker Head and photos....and a Statement by the finder himself?

If not....what investigation was done to confirm/deny the validity of the "claim" made by the poster of the photo?

Either it is genuine or it is not.....which is it and how is the truth of the matter documented?

Can we trust what is being put forward regarding the Seeker Head by the Iranian Government?

[dmba]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E6bnIAHOzxY

[gearlever]

The accident reports by the Iran's CAO are all done in a professional way. Therefore I am pretty sure they know how to handle a FDR/CVR.
So do I.
I have no doubt to know the truth pretty soon.

[FideJJ]

PS752 crash:
Ukrainian experts examining Boeing wreckage in Iran say fire didn't start from engines (https://www.unian.info/world/10823759-ps752-crash-ukrainian-experts-examining-boeing-wreckage-in-iran-say-fire-didn-t-start-from-engines.html)
16:55, 09 January 2020 World 104 0
The team expects to gain access to air traffic control system radar data.

Members of the Ukrainian state commission investigating the crash of the Ukrainian Boeing 737 near Tehran, who had earlier arrived in Iran and have examined the plane wreckage.

The engine malfunction version cannot be confirmed, a Ukrainian journalist Yuriy Butusov said with reference to his source in the team.

"At present, our group has arrived at the site where the fragments of the aircraft are being transported. It is an open area where everything found in the area is being taken.

"Currently, I am observing both aircraft engines – and I don't see any traces of fire on them. Fragments of the right wing were brought here, too – there are also no traces of fire on them, so the version of engine malfunction, engine explosion, can't be confirmed at the moment. The plane was on fire, but the version of engine malfunction is not being confirmed," the source said.

He has added that Iranian officials provided preliminary information they had gathered. The plane took off at 06:13, but after five minutes into the flight, at an altitude of 2,400 meters, the plane began to descend, caught fire, and then crashed.

"According to Iranian flight control dispatchers, no messages were received from the aircraft crew. The plane allegedly turned back toward the airport, but we don't understand yet whether this U-turn was deliberate or already uncontrolled," he said.

At the same time, the Ukrainians have not seen air traffic control radar data. There is no information on objects that could be flying near the Boeing and collide with it, or if there was a missile launch. This information is yet to be provided to Ukrainians.

According to the source, the Iranians are fully cooperating in the investigation.

"The Iranians don't seem to be going to keep any info from anyone, they are going to provide access to the investigation and decryption of black box flight recorders to all parties, including Americans, aircraft manufacturers, as well as all countries whose citizens died, in accordance with the Chicago Convention... Iranians demonstrate normal dialogue, there are no signals that they intentionally seek to hide any information, so far everything is right and transparent enough," he said. Read alsoIran releases preliminary accident report on PS752 crash

Butusov, in turn, suggests a fire could break in the cabin. "The absence of any communications with the dispatcher and the absence of fire in the engines suggests that the version of a terrorist attack, a collision with a drone, or an anti-aircraft missile explosion is very likely," the journalist alleged.

[Airbubba]

Latest from Babak Taghvaee on the missile theory. Like some other folks here, I've operated out of Mehrabad Airport but not out of Khomeini. Is the depicted dogleg to the right normal on departure?

Babak Taghvaee‏ @BabakTaghvaee (https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee) 40m40 minutes ago (https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee/status/1215281024885719040)

More#BREAKING (https://twitter.com/hashtag/BREAKING?src=hash): Eyewitness reports & wreckage of 9M331 missile found near #PS752 (https://twitter.com/hashtag/PS752?src=hash)'s crash site prove that the Boeing 737-8KV of #Ukraine (https://twitter.com/hashtag/Ukraine?src=hash) Airlines is shot-down by Tor-M1 SAM of #IRGC (https://twitter.com/hashtag/IRGC?src=hash)|ASF located in a ballistic missile research facility of #IRGCASF (https://twitter.com/hashtag/IRGCASF?src=hash)! They mistook it with a #USAF (https://twitter.com/hashtag/USAF?src=hash) airplane! https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee/status/1214811318236127232 …



https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/2000x1709/en2lomjxkaatrun_181d8b86275caabd2f754d97dd34db0589937a20.jpg

[RCyyz]

The FDR is obviously central to this investigation, but I'd be really interested to learn if the CVR has anything on it. I realize that communication is the last thing you do, but if the aircraft was in fact, turning / turned back towards the airport, one would think a quick word with the tower would be in order. That there was no (reported) communication is interesting.

[Lonewolf_50]

Latest from Babak Taghvaee on the missile theory.
This beggars belief.
If what this gent suggests is true, I would on first instinct attribute this to a collossal mistake/cock up, rather than anything willful or malicious, given that this airline has been operating on that route for some time out of this airport (per the posts much previous to this one). Still skeptical, even though now and again truth is stranger than fiction.

After looking at who the passengers are believed to be (students returning to Canada after a break): what a tragic loss of part of the future generation. :suspect:
From the news article (https://www.unian.info/world/10823759-ps752-crash-ukrainian-experts-examining-boeing-wreckage-in-iran-say-fire-didn-t-start-from-engines.html) cited a few posts up ...
"Currently, I am observing both aircraft engines – and I don't see any traces of fire on them. Fragments of the right wing were brought here, too – there are also no traces of fire on them, so the version of engine malfunction, engine explosion, can't be confirmed at the moment. The plane was on fire, but the version of engine malfunction is not being confirmed," the source said.
Engines are not the only place that a fire can start.

[gearlever]

The FDR is obviously central to this investigation, but I'd be really interested to learn if the CVR has anything on it. I realize that communication is the last thing you do, but if the aircraft was in fact, turning / turned back towards the airport, one would think a quick word with the tower would be in order. That there was no (reported) communication is interesting.
Not to forget the flight deck communication...

[SteinarN]

Not to forget the flight deck communication...
Yes. And the mics would pick up sounds from explosions too, be it engine explosions or other external explosions.

[lapp]

Have said it before, but with all the noise on the thread it is now deeply burried so let me repeat: in a totalitarian society (and let's not open a debate whether Iran is one) EVERYTHING that appears in formal news outlets is controlled by the authorities. I would find it extremely unlikely that if any Iranian military unit would have committed such a blunder (which by itself is not at all inconceivable), free access would have been given to local press to the wreckage, and photos permitted to be published. Were that the case, by sunrise authorties would have known in full detail what happened, and as a knee jerk reaction would have done everything in their power to supress incriminating information.

I agree with that, but I think that the perceived freedom of access to site, and the newly released intention of conducting a normal investigation does not eliminate the possibility that the Iranian military (or militia) is involved.
Reasoning: this is 2020, a good old times total cover up is just impossible to accomplish credibly. Neither is desirable the insinuation that it is being attempted, Iran is wants to show they play by international law and civilization as much as possible.
The only damage-limiting tactic possible: Act as if nothing is known. If and when the investigation will have enough evidence that was explosion, dispute the missile theory until the end. Support the thesis of an inside bomb, that has worked good in case of Itavia IH870. Only if considered inevitable, and at a later point blame the shoot down on an mistake that was, somehow, never communicated upward. Prosecute some sacrificial ranks and file, or whatever official is needed, have them executed. Compensate the airline and victim's families to the smallest amount possible and just move on. After all, Iran has bigger problems to deal with.

[Mr Optimistic]

[pax] Opinion says not. Given the short duration of the event, whatever initiated it must have been very intense in order to cause so much flame so rapidly: no time for a progressive build up. Inference is that the electrics were lost so no transponder or comms.

[Alchad]

They have also said some of the recorder memory is damaged.

To be strictly accurate, the statement actually said....

"There is memory in both devices, but physical damage is visible on them."

Which I take it to mean the device themselves, rather than the internal memory. Just my view, but would they really have got round to opening them and checking the contents after such a relatively short time??

Alchad

[SA Brit]

[QUOTE=Airbubba;10657974]Latest from Babak Taghvaee on the missile theory. Like some other folks here, I've operated out of Mehrabad Airport but not out of Khomeini. Is the depicted dogleg to the right normal on departure?

Looks to be a similar track to the Parot 3G SID


https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/771x1305/d649d2f9_8768_449d_88fb_f3fe02f5e52a_5f61748b6754b97d22f33a3 722c3b78e9bfb3533.jpeg

[MATELO]

Sky news reporting Downing Street investigating possibility aircraft was shot down. (Press speculation only - no new information)

https://news.sky.com/story/iran-plane-crash-downing-street-looking-into-reports-ukrainian-jet-was-shot-down-by-missile-11904698

[MrsDoubtfire]

Has anyone remarked THIS article? Perhaps the reason for the delay (offloading baggage from the cargo hold)?

https://112.international/society/169-passengers-checked-in-for-ps-752-flight-two-did-not-get-aboard-nsdc-47285.html

There were 169 passengers checked in for PS 752 flight from Iran to Kyiv (https://112.international/society/ps-752-plane-crash-rescuers-find-two-black-boxes-at-scene-47276.html), but two of them did not get aboard. This was announced by the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Oleksiy Danylov at the briefing, which was broadcasted by 112 Ukraine TV Channel (http://112.ua/).

[Airbubba]

The FR24 trace stops with the aircraft still in the climb on the departure heading. You can't tell anything from the trace about what did or didn't happen subsequently.

It looks to me like there is a 20 degree turn to the right before the data is lost. I think the FR24 dataset has been updated with the 'granular' data from the local ADS-B receiver(s).

Here's the FR24 plot of the .kml file plotted on Google Earth:

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1091x590/ps_752_kml_8b7f4da5c1893f9f80e093925ac1a6727116fb2b.jpg

The standard FR24 plot:

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1270x562/ps_752_945157360792ab2193c8e2171ff96a37c8bb432a.jpg

And the FlightAware track log showing a course change in the last point:

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1330x336/ps_752_flightaware_4defe78e8d386de80cc7a18d03b004f31a394e61. jpg

[Airbubba]

Latest from Babak Taghvaee on the missile theory. Like some other folks here, I've operated out of Mehrabad Airport but not out of Khomeini. Is the depicted dogleg to the right normal on departure?

Looks to be a similar track to the Parot 3G SID




Or possibly the Parot 2H from the timing of the turn?

Thanks, I appreciate it. :ok:

[gums]

Salute!

As Mozella points out, it is not unheard of to have SAM operators and others tracking commercial aircraft. So the theory that an unintentional/accidental launch happened is worthy of examination. However, if that is the case then I doubt the government would be quick to admit such.

Our very own NORAD had "accidental" shootdowns back in the day, and I went thru one pressure chamber training session with a troop that was shot down by an F-102. The Deuce pilot had failed to confirm a weapon system evaluator missile ( inert warhead and motor) was loaded, and a live AIM-4 used for load crew training was launched. We went the full distance when carrying WSEM's, including opening the bay doors and extending the missiles on their trapeze launch rails so the seeker could lock on. For the nuclear Genie on my VooDoo, we rotated the bay door and confirmed the targeting data was sent to the rocket and then the fire signal. Our live nukes had a whole different buncha layers of security and such, as you can imagine. However, I did get to touch them when pre-flighting and cocking my plane on the alert pad. During some inspections and exercises we got them outta the bomb dump and actually loaded a few. You know, "war games" !!

So it is possible a SAM site was tracking the airliner and a safety interlock failed or was incorrectly set. I have a problem with the launch crew not turning off the guidance signals ( if the thing was command guided like ones I saw over Hanoi and not a radar/optical seeker). And even the semi-active seeker types can go "dumb" if you turn off the tracking radar.

Gums sends...

[FideJJ]

Seems to be confirmed to be a missile, not one but two:
@krisvancleave.@cbsnews: US officials are confident Ukrainian Flt 752 was shot down by Iran. US intelligence picked up signals of the radar being turned on & satellite detected infrared blips of 2 missile launches, probably SA-15s, followed shortly by another infrared blip of an explosion.

[DaveReidUK]

It looks to me like there is a 20 degree turn to the right before the data is lost. I think the FR24 dataset has been updated with the 'granular' data from the local ADS-B receiver(s).

Yes, the FR24 granular data and FlightAware show a 14° track change (289° to 313°) over the course of about 30 seconds (02:44:15 to 02:44:45), so about half a degree per second.

[LiamNCL]

US UK and Iraqi officials seem to be in agreement on this now after distancing from it yesterday.

BREAKING: Senior US and Iraqi officials report that the Ukrainian airliner that went down outside Tehran was brought down by a surface to air missile. (https://www.newsweek.com/iranians-shot-down-ukraine-flight-mistake-sources-1481313)

[Mudman]

Quick debris map as best i can gather from the images.
https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1224x792/debris_sm_f6711f3968fbbe8f20dda9b77cc2c7dc8a59d00a.jpg

[Airbubba]

Yes, really! Certainly they would never see a missle fly out at anything beyond 2 digit ranges.

US UK and Iraqi officials seem to be in agreement on this now after distancing from it yesterday.

BREAKING: Senior US and Iraqi officials report that the Ukrainian airliner that went down outside Tehran was brought down by a surface to air missile. (https://www.newsweek.com/iranians-shot-down-ukraine-flight-mistake-sources-1481313)

Yep, it would be naïve to think that we didn't have good enough satellite coverage to detect a SAM launch in Tehran.

[LiamNCL]

Accidental. Oh, nobody would have thought so. It looked like a regular landing to me.
Unbelievable...

Accidental in terms of shot down, Nobody is saying Iran done it on purpose but it looks like a missile downing to me.

[BlackIsle]

Breaking news of missile launches:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-51055219

[cappt]

You have a SAM site sitting under the departure corridor of a major international airport, this was no mistake.

[geo10]

Just in:
WASHINGTON, Jan 9 (Reuters) - A Ukraine airliner that crashed in Iran, killing all 176 people aboard, was most likely brought down accidentally by Iranian air defenses, U.S. officials said on Thursday.
One U.S. official said U.S. satellites had detected the launch of two missiles shortly before the plane crashed, followed by evidence of an explosion. Two officials said Washington believed the downing of the plane was accidental.
The Pentagon declined to comment.

[Onceapilot]

Good work by some open minded Ppruners, IMO. Some very well observed details of high velocity frag damage to parts of the airframe, some accurate interpretation of the recorded initial flightpath and some well considered consideration of the subsequent descent and crash. Additionally, the smoking evidence of the missile seeker was well explained and treated with the appropriate caution by those with knowledge. I am sure more details will emerge. RIP the victims.

OAP

[EDML]

EDML,

Pretty quick thinking on someone's part to publish that photo of the Seeker Head.....was it taken into evidence by the Iranian authorities....the Seeker Head and photos....and a Statement by the finder himself?

If not....what investigation was done to confirm/deny the validity of the "claim" made by the poster of the photo?

Either it is genuine or it is not.....which is it and how is the truth of the matter documented?

Can we trust what is being put forward regarding the Seeker Head by the Iranian Government?

We can't trust either side.

However, if I would have found a missile part near a crashed aircraft I would have done more to document what it is and where it was found. E.g. a picture showing the wider surroundings so that the location can be verified. Turning it over to the authorities might be a problem in Iran, I agree on that.

I have seen so many pictures after aircraft accidents posted on social media where, after a short period of time, it was determined, that they did not even show the aircraft that had crashed.

Without any kind of proof or further information I tend to be very skeptical with pictures found on social media sites.

[jewitts]

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1440x960/iran_crash_7172f37df809c3dc4a96d55290d657795c2ca69c.jpg
Interesting image (Ghetty Images) just appeared on CNN. Shows a big section of fuselage (Heat damaged) partially embedded in a building. Surely not the same plane?

[Airbubba]

Interesting image (Ghetty Images) just appeared on CNN. Shows a big section of fuselage (Heat damaged) partially embedded in a building.

CNN is fake news as usual. That's a 707, not a 737. Some of us can tell the difference.

[Auxtank]

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1440x960/iran_crash_7172f37df809c3dc4a96d55290d657795c2ca69c.jpg
Interesting image (Ghetty Images) just appeared on CNN. Shows a big section of fuselage (Heat damaged) partially embedded in a building.

Yes, that's a good photo of the SAHA Airlines crash in Karaj on Jan 14th 2019. (707)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Saha_Airlines_Boeing_707_crash
The BBC has rolled out old Learmount for Radio 4 and News At 6 so there goes all credibility for that organisation.

[Alty7x7]

Finally, these three images of the what I am guessing is the remains of 2L. Note the white streaks around the frame. More evidence of the intensity of the fire on that side of the aircraft. The RH engine tail cone and aft cowling. (can someone confirm this is in fact the RH. I am assuming so since it appears less burnt. Note the hole.


The engine core exhaust and aft cowl are airframer- supplied (i.e. not supplied with engine) and are bolt-on interchangeable between left and right engines. So probably can't distinguish from that pic which side it came from without serial numbers, or for instance if exhaust was still attached on other engine, etc.

[robert_b]

Iranians call U.S. conclusion not trueThe head of Iran's civil aviation authority has said the U.S. conclusion is simply not true, CBS News senior foreign correspondent Elizabeth Palmer reports from Tehran. A website affiliated with Iran's Revolutionary Guard called the U.S. intelligence a conspiracy cooked up by Iran's enemies, Palmer reports.

BY ALEX SUNDBY

[Klimax]

Radars turned on and missiles fired... Not a proof... but, then again, if that´s what you want you´ll likely have to wait.... forever to make the conclusion.

[Halfnut]

https://www.foxnews.com/world/ukrainian-airplane-shot-down-by-mistake-by-iranian-anti-aircraft-missile-pentagon-officials-believe

[WHBM]

Quite a bit more detail now coming into the news, about the missile from multiple sources - as described on here from the word go.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-51055219

[RTM Boy]

Nonsense. The IRG answers directly to the supreme leader (not to the civilian government). It is a disciplined and well trained force and it does exactly what is ordered, nothing more nothing less. The regular Iranian military is another story, sheer incompetence from their part is conceivable, however rather unlikely given the apparent unrestricted access to the accident site for local journalists. If there were anything to hide, there are few better than the Iranian authorities for acheiving it.

Nonsense is it? You must have contacts very high up in the Iranian regime. The BBC’s Middle East Security correspondent Frank Gardner has just said multiple sources are claiming an accidental ‘anti-aircraft missile’ launch struck one of the plane’s engines. We will of course have to wait and see, because wisely I’m not going to claim certainty about any aspect of this tragic crash resulting in such loss of life. Nothing more, nothing less.

[triumph61]

https://twitter.com/Roman_012/status/1215335999997448195?s=20

[Auxtank]

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/493x164/bbcbc_7135f395b078ac85cdb8dced9f7d96b12e7a32df.png


If that is true - then that is the most significant development in the last 24 hours and most worrying.

[Mark in CA]

The NY Times is also reporting the missile story. Included in their report, however, is this interesting tidbit:

. . . the Iranians, through the International Civil Aviation Organization, invited the National Transportation Safety Board of the United States to assist in the investigation despite previous reports that the Americans would not be involved, according to two people familiar with the matter who spoke on condition of anonymity.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/world/middleeast/iran-plane-crash-ukraine.html

[PuraVidaTransport]

I think that last video removes all doubt...