Hill Helicopters HX50

[admikar]

Hargreaves 99 - I think the previous few posts say things better than I could :ok:
Come on now, don't be such a buzzkill.

[[email protected]]

Any update on the helicopter version of sunlit uplands?:)

Other than the shiny new CMM machine that is.

[hargreaves99]

https://www.hillhelicopters.com/orders

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1628x218/screen_shot_2023_04_22_at_17_58_26_c2398ec8a303e89647b1d75f9 cb2aafc5d415507.png

Yet...no working engine so far, and no factory planning permission granted.

[hargreaves99]

Here is the latest update...


-----------
We're excited to announce that the 3rd HX50 Global Meetup & Discover Event is coming up later this year! As an owner, you're invited to join us for an unforgettable experience on the 6th & 7th December 2023, at the Imperial War Museum Duxford - Cambridgeshire, UK.

Prepare for the moment we've all been eagerly anticipating – the grand unveiling of the complete HX50. Dive into an unmatched sensory journey. Discover the luxurious interior, get hands-on with the cutting-edge Hill Digital Cockpit, and admire the stunning design that sets the HX50 apart from any other aircraft.

Day 1: Exclusively for Owners and Guests

The first day is dedicated to our HX50 owners and their guests. We suggest you arrive by 3pm GMT, as the excitement begins at 5pm GMT. Jason Hill will be on hand with live demonstrations, project updates, and to address any questions you may have. The highlight of the evening will be your inaugural encounter with the complete HX50 – seeing it, feeling it, and stepping inside!

Day 2: Open to All Enthusiasts

The second day is our open day, welcoming all those interested in the HX50. As an owner, you'll continue to enjoy priority access to the HX50 throughout the event.

The Venue: A Fusion of History and Innovation

The Imperial War Museum Duxford - Cambridgeshire, UK, provides a breathtaking setting for this year's event. Explore the latest technology and aviation engineering, all while immersed in the rich history and heritage of the venue.

Availability is limited, particularly for Day 1, so we encourage you to secure your spot for you and your guests as soon as possible. On Day 2, feel free to bring additional family and friends to share in the excitement of the HX50 adventure.

Reserve spots for you and your guests promptly by clicking the personalised link below.

We're eager to see you there, making history together!

Cheers,

Ruben Dias and Mischa Gelb

[Bell_ringer]

Would like to see how they define “complete”, so far in hillspeak they seem to mean mockup.

[admikar]

If it has nice screens that can be turned on I'm sure buyers will be happy

[Bell_ringer]

If it has nice screens that can be turned on I'm sure buyers will be happy

True. I’d take a heat lamp and aim it at the ipad and see how long it stays on..

[[email protected]]

What an utter load of cobblers - if I had paid the money up front I would be expecting a flying demonstrator by this stage not son et lumiere productions to manage expectations.

[whoknows idont]

I'm no native English speaker but in my ears the term "owner" sounds pretty awkward in regards to something that doesn't exist yet.

[206 jock]

What an utter load of cobblers - if I had paid the money up front I would be expecting a flying demonstrator by this stage not son et lumiere productions to manage expectations.
You cynic! Perhaps they will be arranging a surprise test flight at the event as after all a prototype flying by the end of 2023 was a 'milestone' in the development path.

Or more likely, you are right. "Here's something that you can tell all your friends about and maybe get them to place a deposit on an aircraft they won't see until 2029 or probably never"

[Bell_ringer]

What an utter load of cobblers - if I had paid the money up front I would be expecting a flying demonstrator by this stage not son et lumiere productions to manage expectations.

Crab, as an “enthusiast” perhaps you can go attend day 2 for all us far-flung hillistines and ask the tough questions :E

[206 jock]

More good news for Hill Helicopters! The accounts up to July 2022 have recently been published.

The bad news is that there are some really big numbers with brackets around them. Clearly not many new depositors in the 12 months under review.
https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/900x2000/screenshot_2023_05_07_08_41_03_25_f541918c7893c52dbd1ee5d319 333948_1fc5176e209a7ac395cd1931dd3ba1d71e103537.jpg

[hargreaves99]

I know it's hard to figure out the real state of a company from company accounts but....as they have taken 700 deposits, ie about £28 million.. it looks like they have £17 million in the bank, but owe people £29 million

I'm not sure what to make of that

[Bell_ringer]

Still amazed they list zero employees, that is an interesting business model.
While they aren't required to audit financials, it is a modest cost and would show a level of due diligence to potential investors and depositors.

[admikar]

Crab, as an “enthusiast” perhaps you can go attend day 2 for all us far-flung hillistines and ask the tough questions :E
This, this. I can't (read won't) contribute to financial costs, but he would have my eternal admiration. That has to account for something.

[topradio]

Are the customers who've ponied up their deposits classed as creditors?

[Bell_ringer]

Are the customers who've ponied up their deposits classed as creditors?

You would expect so as it is a liability that can only be converted to income on delivery.

[admikar]

You would expect so as it is a liability that can only be converted to income on delivery.
Deposits are non-refundable, so they can't be creditors? Donors?

[[email protected]]

Deposits are non-refundable, so they can't be creditors? Donors?
Maybe suckers.........

[206 jock]

As per last year, the devil is in the detail. There is reference in the accounts to the Group being the ultimate controlling company and has all the relevant figures but Hill Helicopters Ltd is where the action is. Clearly the balance sheet doesn't tell you that much but there are some notes in the accounts on how depositor cash is handled:

" The company has, as planned, recorded a loss before tax of £8.6m (2021 - £3.4m) after expensing its investment in development activities of £3.6m (2021 - £1.8m) and further design and development costs recharged from within the group of £5.0m (2021 - £1.Sm). During the period the total income generated in the form of deposits totalled £12.5m from 331 units. These deposits are currently held in deferred income on the balance sheet and will be realised on delivery in future periods. Since the balance sheet date (as at 28 February 2022) the directors have successfully secured further sales of 135 units (therefore total sales to date of 711 units). This has generated income in the form of deposits of £4.4m. The current total order book value for 711 units is £307.3mThe structure of the sale and purchase agreements and the timing of the deposits and payments is designed to generate sufficient cashflow for each phase of the design, development, production and delivery of the HX50/HC50 helicopter to market. The directors carefully monitor and manage cashflows to ensure liquidity at each phase.

In doing so, the directors have prepared cashflow forecasts, covering a period extending beyond 12 months from the date of approval of these financial statements, taking account of anticipated costs, expected revenues and funds raised. These forecasts demonstrate that the company can operate within the finance facilities available to it for a period of at least 12 months from the date of approval of these financial statements and therefore the directors consider it appropriate to prepare the company's financial statements on a going concern basis."

So the Depositors are treated as Creditors.

Further I think it's safe to assume that up to July 22 they had spent £12m on development. And there was £17m left, and they have taken another 135 deposits since then (I assume the reference to Balance sheet as at 28/2/22 is a mistake). So another £5.4m has gone into the pot. If we assume the cash burn remains the same (I would expect it to increase as the team gets bigger and more machines come on line), they will have used up c£6.5m since July 2022.

So the gamble is: will they get the aircraft developed and flying with c£16m of funding, unless they get even more deposits? I can see why they leave the order book open!

[ShyTorque]

Again, anyone considering putting money up front should look up the saga of Elio motors. I sincerely hope this isn’t history repeating itself. :(

[hargreaves99]

Jason promised the engine running by Summer 2023 and the first flight by the end of 2023.

Likely?

[admikar]

Wait, wasn't he developing new rotor system at the same time? In that case, not likely

[hargreaves99]

The first blade of turbine has been made..

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1044x1330/hx50_first_bladed_disc_turbine_77aca16fd6781bf0993aafad8f167 4fa7ac18fe6.jpg

[Agile]

So 6th & 7th December 2023 we see a "complete" helicopter, then they ship it out to HeliExpo 2024 in Los Angeles, and meet a lot of rich customer in CA.

How "complete" will that be? I know the airframe is on the way to being completed, big question, rotor head, blades and engine, will that be a vulgar mock up or finalized parts with test data.

[Shagpile]

How "complete" will that be? I know the airframe is on the way to being completed, big question, rotor head, blades and engine, will that be a vulgar mock up or finalized parts with test data.

Latest owners app update summary (I’m sure JasonHill would approve posting). Difficult to capture the detail in a 30min video but here’s the gist:

- Windows: various production trials and tests around bonding and moulds for production quality transparencies.
- Lighting: front nose landing light cluster LED’s being developed using a lighting company. Edge signature light experiments.
- Cockpit: HMI trials to tweak final layout and ergonomics of control. Rapid prototype controls demonstrated.
- Fuselage Misc: begin of door trial work (watertight, handle feel etc) using the test fuselages.
- Digital cockpit (HDC): transfer of interface to onboard hardware ongoing. Ongoing work interfacing with remote mount radios/transponder etc.
- FADEC: control laws & algorithms/maths done. Written and integrated into simulator / HDC. Hardware being made. Demo’d on sim.
- Flight control software: stability augmentation and 4-axis autopilot algorithms being finalised.
- Engine: demo’d fully made prototype bladed disc (HP). Will be casted blades. Casting trials complete. More efficient than the blisk version + 5x life improvements. LP proto 1-2 weeks away. Many test engine components being produced. Demo’d quite a few finished components such as shafts with all couplings, seals etc. Design of engine close to finalised.
- Combustor: vibration mode analysis being finalised. Aerodynamics done. About 1 week away from design freeze & being able to start making annular combustor parts.
- StarterGenny: too hot at lower idle rpm, so requires change of cooling strategy to fuel cooling. Hardware design change done, awaiting power electronics.
- Upcoming engine test strategy discussed in detail. Essentially phased tests.
- Drivetrain: most proto components made. A few need to be remade due to some dimension changes. Demo’d spiral bevel gears, reduction gears, torque shaft, etc. Casings and bearings being produced. “Soft” proto versions used for lubrication trials, final fit/function trials. Hardened gears will be made soon for (5000h) endurance trials later this year. A couple of months until full drivetrain test ready parts made.
- Composites: tail assembly being made whilst simultaneously using/developing production techniques.
- Talked about the old gantry mill going at slow speed making some composite work difficult, trying to order a new one.
- Demo’d metallic inserts to show customers how components bolt onto the composite airframe (educational)
- lots more about composites and tail assembly and production processes, etc. Essentially how the prototype aircraft and production moulds and process will be different and in parallel.

Nothing on main rotor head, but has previously said that’s getting his current attention, but can’t discuss until IP of how it’s packaged tightly (so can be cowled). Previously has publicly said its elastomeric bearing semi rigid. Blades he’s only once briefly discussed and didn’t seem too worried.

Live AMA 24th May 1600h GMT. Meetup event early December.

[hargreaves99]

"Design of engine close to finalised"

and still on track for first flight this year?

[CGameProgrammerr]

I wish they weren't trying to do everything themselves because I feel like the project is doomed because of that. He should have used a third-party engine at least for the first few years while developing their own, to get units out the door and get income / investments.

[206 jock]

I wish they weren't trying to do everything themselves because I feel like the project is doomed because of that. He should have used a third-party engine at least for the first few years while developing their own, to get units out the door and get income / investments.
But you miss an important point. A Rolls Royce or Safran engine would be £300k/unit. So why not make your own as everyone else is ripping you off etc etc blah blah?

[CGameProgrammerr]

I'm not missing that point, but the point is moot if the company goes bankrupt. You have to start simple and then expand. The original Tesla Roadster was a conversion of a Lotus Elise; Tesla bought from Lotus nearly fully complete Lotus Elises, without powertrain components but with just about everything else, and then they put in third-party batteries and other components to create their car. They used that income, and the additional investments they were able to get afterwards, to then create the fully Tesla-built Model S. If they had tried to start with the S then they would have gone bankrupt.

Hill should have started simpler using a third-party engine, and maybe even third-party avionics, even though that makes it more expensive, because that would massively reduce the development time and risk and allow them to start shipping units sooner, letting them get actual income as well as more investment when they prove they can create working helicopters. Then they can use that money and time to develop their own engine/avionics.

Nobody in the aviation world creates their own engines. Boeing does not, Airbus does not, Robinson does not, Cirrus does not, etc. It's crazy.

[Bell_ringer]

You have to admire the ambition. Designing parts and the manufacture processes simultaneously, along with trying to finalise and build a plant to manufacture in.
Much water must still flow beneath the bridge to get from prototype/demo parts to properly hardened components with reliable tolerances.
That is before you bring all the many moving parts together and try make them work on the micro and macro level, and then try ramp up manufacturing at any reasonable pace to meet the order book and financial targets. Bold. Very bold.

[hargreaves99]

I guess with at least £28 million received from people he can afford to be "bold".

Although ....when the first test flight is Dec 31st 2023, some of us here are going to eating a lot of humble pie.

[chopper2004]

I think a lot of the work is being done at his Dynamic Engineering sub

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y0TMJhfkjH0


hargreaves99 i think you are right, it will be an eye opener. and suspect, we will all be pleasantly surprised.

cheers

[admikar]

I guess with at least £28 million received from people he can afford to be "bold".

Although ....when the first test flight is Dec 31st 2023, some of us here are going to eating a lot of humble pie.
I would not mind to eat that humble pie right now. I would love to see that thing in the air.

[hargreaves99]

You have to admire the chutzpah:


https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/400x437/1_3e2d3fbafceac1ee20b969bd69fab0bf0da3be2d.jpg

[Bell_ringer]

You have to admire the chutzpah:


Seems the only place it can't go is into manufacturing :E

[EESDL]

wishing all
at Hill the best of British luck!
onwards and upwards

[Kemble Pitts]

Quite wrong Mr Ringer, manufacturing is well underway.

Last time I was there they'd built four fuselages in order to refine the processes. MGB being manufactured. Turbine blades too.

[SansAnhedral]

Nothing on main rotor head, but has previously said that’s getting his current attention, but can’t discuss until IP of how it’s packaged tightly (so can be cowled). Previously has publicly said its elastomeric bearing semi rigid. Blades he’s only once briefly discussed and didn’t seem too worried.

Design IP should have been submitted for patent coverage ages ago providing immediate protection in the first-to-file system - there's no reason to keep mum about these details if the schedules promised are remotely real.

[Bell_ringer]

Quite wrong Mr Ringer, manufacturing is well underway.

Last time I was there they'd built four fuselages in order to refine the processes. MGB being manufactured. Turbine blades too.

My wife regularly has 4 attempts to cook something edible, it has no bearing on success.
Until manufacturing can produce a product that is airworthy it is people playing with large scale mechano.

[Hughes500]

Bell Ringer bet your wife doesnt see your posts

[chopper2004]

Mischa came to UK

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JBcjYvMj9RM

cheers

[hargreaves99]

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1816x278/screen_shot_2023_05_17_at_19_21_48_797e62c3b55aac6675a627eb8 1c0f0472154204e.png

[admikar]

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1816x278/screen_shot_2023_05_17_at_19_21_48_797e62c3b55aac6675a627eb8 1c0f0472154204e.png
Brave man. His chances of ever test flying this thing just took a nosedive

[hargreaves99]

Planning Applications - Staffordshire Moorlands District Council (http://publicaccess.staffsmoorlands.gov.uk/portal/servlets/ApplicationSearchServlet?PKID=161684)

Factory Planning Permission decision delayed again..until 13th July 2023

[206 jock]

So, what was the blah blah from today's meeting/AMA?

[hargreaves99]

I think these AMA's are largely irrelevant.

We are all just going to have to wait until the prototype flies, it's been tested, and production properly starts.

[pete6]

see below

patentimages.storage.googleapis.com/0d/ba/8b/8a58b78b5ea33e/WO2022038382A1.pdf

[Bell_ringer]

I think these AMA's are largely irrelevant.

We are all just going to have to wait until the prototype flies, it's been tested, and production properly starts.

Ok, see you back here in 2025 then :ok:
Council planning committee may actually have met by then.

[hargreaves99]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cNYlBBMB9zU

Jason Hill says no delays, production will start end of 2024 and they will make more than 500 aircraft per year

They have 673 orders.

Engine design not complete. No working engine at the moment.

[[email protected]]

18 months to go, no working engine, no planning permission, no factory, no working demonstrator, 673 people out of pocket - just a big bucket of bravado and self-belief to counter that lot.

Zero to 500 a year? Really?

[hargreaves99]

Don't forget that anyone who has placed a deposit (about £40,000) needs to make the "Manufacturing payment" a year before the "projected delivery date". ie about £200,000. Then another £200,000 three months prior to the "projected delivery date".

[206 jock]

Don't forget that anyone who has placed a deposit (about £40,000) needs to make the "Manufacturing payment" a year before the "projected delivery date". ie about £200,000. Then another £200,000 three months prior to the "projected delivery date".
And in a lesson from the CRAN school of economics that's almost all profit for Hill Helicopters, as the R&D was paid for by the depositors and the materials are all really cheap...

[admikar]

And in a lesson from the CRAN school of economics that's almost all profit for Hill Helicopters, as the R&D was paid for by the depositors and the materials are all really cheap...
Wait, what?
Then why the price increase?

[hargreaves99]

Apparently Jason plans for the HX50 to fly into the Duxford event in December this year.

Crab....you better book your place!

[VM325]

Apparently Jason plans for the HX50 to fly into the Duxford event in December this year.

Crab....you better book your place!

I may be mistaken, but I don’t think he mentioned anything about it actually flying in…

[Shagpile]

Here we go again! Brandolini’s Law striked again:
The amount of energy needed to refute b (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bull****)s is an order of magnitude (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Order_of_magnitude) bigger than that needed to produce it
In the latest AMA he didn’t promise a flying proto in December. He promised at least a fully finished ground model for the public event. The end of year flying proto assumes zero schedule slippage so it was very clear that would be a bonus, but I’m personally not expecting it.

Progress is incremental. Since last time:

- Tail section composite moulds done (in production techniques) & made one tail section.
- 5th main “monolage” composite structure made, now fully complete with foams, detail, surface finish, lightning mesh, b section pillars, metal inserts. I think 6th underway? Can’t remember.
- Tail ducted fan section now quite thicker. He said it’s 20% better performance than the thin original designs
- Lighting & nose cluster
- Digital cockpit moving to target hardware and some avionics control integrated
- Windscreen bonding trials, and coatings.
- Human machine interface trials (read: validating everything in correct location, and tweaking)
- Gears now all fully made. Some being sent off for testing
- Discussed how maintenance is done mostly accessible from top section of tail
- Engine most sections designs now finalised & frozen. Only one section remains and will be put out for manufacture soon.
- All of the main rotating engine parts have been made once proving it can be done (joins, details, finish, etc). Only production blades to go.
- Explained some detail on efficiency vs cycle life switching to a slotted disk design (fewer blades is less efficient but better life & failure modes), and they managed to get efficiency up 1%.
- Bearings now all made & tested. Explained why he makes his own (cost of “helicopter” tax).
- Explained engine test schedule plan
- Flight control rapid prototypes
- Production facility delayed again; reading between the line it looks like politics, and more red tape (noise & environmental stuff). He said he isn’t commenting publicly yet, but won’t be held up by this. Which means he has several backup options but it isn’t appropriate to comment which could prejudice PlanA. Seems sensible.
- Discussion on production engineer factory plans, timelines for training, producing spares inventory first, scaling etc.
- No details on rotor yet due IP on “clever packaging”, but looks like it’s being worked on.
- Some discussions on insurance. He will do at least the hull which he can make a lot cheaper than it costs us. Wants to make GA ownership affordable again.

It’s materialising before our eyes at a rate of knots. I believe some people will be eating their hats next year.

830 orders.

Yep non-refundable deposits are booked up as revenue. I’m not seeing why this is a problem. People like me put down $70k risk to secure a $300k discount. That’s a 400% return on what I see as really only a risk in delays, not the fundamental product. I’m happy to wait.

People who want zero risk will pay full price and have to wait 2-3+ years longer. I’m not seeing the issue here; it’s an individual decision. The data on progress is all public. It’s literally an “AMA” ask anything, and he answers everything including financials, timelines, risk, schedules, and current pain points. If you don’t like risk, then just wait. It’s not your money he’s spending. It’s ours, so not sure why the crabbiness (pun intended!)

[[email protected]]

Shagpile - I am sure that something will eventually appear from Hill that will look like a helicopter and fly like a helicopter but whether or not it will perform to his claims and be any cheaper than competitors remains to be seen and not for some while either.

[hargreaves99]

Robinson build 250-300 per year.

And they don't make the engines.

"In the latest AMA he didn’t promise a flying proto in December"

errr, he previously promised the engine running by "summer 2023" and a prototype flying by "end of 2023"


https://www.hillhelicopters.com/orders


https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1576x302/screen_shot_2023_05_28_at_08_25_59_dc75cf5ffb14a66d206ef57d6 b9981643ebdb3a2.png

[admikar]

- Tail ducted fan section now quite thicker. He said it’s 20% better performance than the thin original designs

- No details on rotor yet due IP on “clever packaging”, but looks like it’s being worked on.

What else is made thicker (read heavier) that didn't turn out as it was hopped to be? How will that affect performance?

It has already been stated that as soon as patent application is submited IP is set. So, are we sure this is about IP or there are some problems with developing new revolutionary rotor?

[pete6]

You can see the rotor architecture in the patent drawing i linked to above

[hargreaves99]

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1346x1292/1_63c7fd0fd0941e6fd7f4dc9903319594c9ade762.jpg

[hargreaves99]

https://www.hillhelicopters.com/faq?id=when-will-the-helicopters-be-available

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/2000x287/screen_shot_2023_05_28_at_22_00_38_30a7474cd302afcde5cb4efd5 1d5e57bb86f2617.png

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1980x320/screen_shot_2023_05_28_at_22_02_24_533e9554da7df7510de3975ed b32f17477334c63.png
https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1972x454/screen_shot_2023_05_28_at_22_02_16_a2f98af71f0a24e8842781af9 25f4500a8980566.png
https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1958x356/screen_shot_2023_05_28_at_22_02_05_fdd39755d87bd25279ad2b2b6 a3de947dba619fd.png

[Harrynz]

I'm all for clean sheet designs building on old knowledge so Im not trying to find faults. I just want to learn more about the design.

Looking at the patent application, I saw something on the diagram Fig.7a.
The center push tube splits into two paths and wraps around the engine input drive shaft before being connected to the servo.
Will there be some protection provided to the push tubes should the drive shaft split and flail about?

How is the fuselage held to the transmission and how are misalignments and expansion dealt with between the engine and transmission?

[hargreaves99]

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1326x1458/screen_shot_2023_05_29_at_06_26_50_7a226e0232c57fa1857218bd2 7f564556740c584.png

[admikar]

I'll admit I am not a prodigy regarding mechanics, but can someone explain what is so revolutionary about this rotor system?
It looks a lot what Airbus calls spheriflex rotor head?

[Agile]

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1326x1458/screen_shot_2023_05_29_at_06_26_50_7a226e0232c57fa1857218bd2 7f564556740c584.png
Is the flight control 2130 surounding the transmission shaft? what if the shaft gets unbalanced and blows ups?
I would prefer to see the flight control rods a little bit away from a shaft running at 6000RPM

[Bell_ringer]

I'll admit I am not a prodigy regarding mechanics, but can someone explain what is so revolutionary about this rotor system?
It looks a lot what Airbus calls spheriflex rotor head?

They said it was for "clever packaging", so presumably he has designed a revolutionary new box to ship it in from a clean-sheet, and next-generation cardboard, to avoid those helicopter taxes :E

[SASless]

Agile raises a good point.....were the drive shaft come adrift and start flailing about it does seem likely the flight control linkage could get Involved.

If you recall, a 139 had a similar problem (electrical and not mechanical as a cause) where an electrical fire compromised the Collective Linkage and caused a very serious flight control problem.

There are only so many ways to separate critical components and at times unintended consequences arise that remind us of that.

What Agile points out bears consideration.

[Arcal76]

What a crazy story....
Crab, Sasless, other know what is required to design, build, test a brand new machine.
Anybody who has knowledge, experience in the helicopter industry understand what is required for a project like that.
It is amazing to see that you can drag so many people and make them believe what you want and it remind me what we have seen lately with some high profile stories in the financial world when millions were invested in "new project" who end up being a complete scam.
The bulk of those who decided to pre-order do not understand the enormous work and cost related to a project, who looks good on paper, but required so much time and money.
Of course, most of them do not understand or know what a company like this one can face in the coming months.
It is not a car that you can park on the side of the road....It is flying aircraft, with thousand of pieces moving around who have to be well deigned and tested to make sure you are safe.
This idea that you can make you own engine, because it will cheaper is probably the most scary one for the entire story.
Using deposit money to start a project like that should be seen as a gigantic red flag, but, like in other stories when red flags were highly visible, it is ignored.
There is no way this machine will be delivered in 2024 and there is now way they will produce 500 a year....
How much money, outside those deposits, is available for test and development ???
What is the time frame for test flight and who will test the aircraft ??? (brave enough to do it...)
After flying so many years, there is one thing who still scare all of us, a major component failure.
It looks like all those people are not scared of anything...well, they should...

[admikar]

To be fair, not all of those that invested are total morons.
Some of them are savvy business owners, others are pilots or engineers.
If I have to guess, some of them probably see the risks, but they think potential reward/s outweighs the risk.

[chopper2004]

Judging by Hargreaves posted the updated 4 days ago and looks like almost completed airframe in background, and I do wonder if manufacturing is taking place Not here in UK but in Canada .

cheers

[Hughes500]

Arcal

A gas turbine is not rocket science, it is a simple engine and been around 60 years !

[RVDT]

Arcal

A gas turbine is not rocket science, it is a simple engine and been around 60 years !

Granted - some parts of it are........................in principle. The proposed engine has nothing new in it at least, all borrowed from previous designs of others.

[hargreaves99]

Prototype will fly this year (2023) and production starts next year (2024). Thats what Hill says. You just have to "believe".

[206 jock]

If there is a flight before the end of 2023 I will eat my hat and my shoe.



Still stands. I have a very tasty hat and a shoe lined up ready to be consumed. I'll even broadcast it live on Facebook. But I'll bet my hat collection is safe.

And to build 500 a/c per annum, it will require 20 finishing bays working flat out of 50 weeks a year, if each owner has to do a 2 week self- build. Each bay will obviously need some engineers in doing the work supervising the owner. And of course, the factory will need to bang out the components, airframe, avionics etc etc. It's laughable to make this claim.

[hargreaves99]

I don't doubt something will get in the air by 2024. And when that happens tons more people will pile in with more investment/orders

Either way Jason Hill wins

[Encyclo]

What a crazy story....
Crab, Sasless, other know what is required to design, build, test a brand new machine.
Anybody who has knowledge, experience in the helicopter industry understand what is required for a project like that.
It is amazing to see that you can drag so many people and make them believe what you want and it remind me what we have seen lately with some high profile stories in the financial world when millions were invested in "new project" who end up being a complete scam.
The bulk of those who decided to pre-order do not understand the enormous work and cost related to a project, who looks good on paper, but required so much time and money.
Of course, most of them do not understand or know what a company like this one can face in the coming months.
It is not a car that you can park on the side of the road....It is flying aircraft, with thousand of pieces moving around who have to be well deigned and tested to make sure you are safe.
This idea that you can make you own engine, because it will cheaper is probably the most scary one for the entire story.
Using deposit money to start a project like that should be seen as a gigantic red flag, but, like in other stories when red flags were highly visible, it is ignored.
There is no way this machine will be delivered in 2024 and there is now way they will produce 500 a year....
How much money, outside those deposits, is available for test and development ???
What is the time frame for test flight and who will test the aircraft ??? (brave enough to do it...)
After flying so many years, there is one thing who still scare all of us, a major component failure.
It looks like all those people are not scared of anything...well, they should...

Very well said.

From my past 45 years both in operations (flying and wrenching) and my long tenure with OEMs, leading 'entry into service' activities on a variety of airframe and engine developments, an old saying comes to mind concerning the HX50:

The less you know, the more you think you know and the more you know, the less you think you know.

Fly safe, Always :ok:

[Hughes500]

Encyclo but you are stuck in the OEM way of thinking ! Remember being shown round Westlands on the EH 101 production line, it took one " engineer " over 4 hours to cable tie 2 m of loom to the aircraft !

[Bell_ringer]

Encyclo but you are stuck in the OEM way of thinking ! Remember being shown round Westlands on the EH 101 production line, it took one " engineer " over 4 hours to cable tie 2 m of loom to the aircraft !

Repeating the same tired (and personal perspective) anecdotes doesn’t make it true nor Hill’s dream any more achievable, no matter how much you wish it to be.
The few early adopters that I know have a far more realistic viewpoint, which can only happen if you don’t have brown rings round your ankles.

[bellblade2014]

Encyclo but you are stuck in the OEM way of thinking ! Remember being shown round Westlands on the EH 101 production line, it took one " engineer " over 4 hours to cable tie 2 m of loom to the aircraft !

as a counterpoint to this, the Airbus, Robinson and Bell recent products like H160, R66 and 505/525 use modern 3D design tools, high speed machining and modern fiberglass and carbon fiber composites. Each of these technologies requires a huge amount of infrastructure and know how to design, build and certify the tools and processes under a Civil Aviation Authority approval. These are sustained costs with headcount and licensing and capex throughout. The “start from scratch” and go into production by 2024 is laughable on its face.

The idea that somehow OEM’s are bumbling and not utilizing latest technological “shortcuts” to make product more cost effectively or higher performing… it’s just another example of how Hill and it’s investors are over simplifying the challenges in developing and producing products. Westland is no longer a helicopter company and has not been state of the industry for 3 generations of design. To go from the cost effectiveness of 505 and R66 down to ~40% of the equivalent performing aircraft is just nonsense. Similarly ridiculous to imagine it will go faster and further… utter nonsense.

[hargreaves99]

It's not a certified aircraft with an Air Worthiness Certficate, it's a "permit to fly" aircraft.

How much CAA Approval do Hill really need? Does anyone know?

[Bell_ringer]

It's not a certified aircraft with an Air Worthiness Certficate, it's a "permit to fly" aircraft.

How much CAA Approval do Hill really need? Does anyone know?

Don’t forget the promise is to turn the same design into a certified machine, not that long after the “experimental” version starts to exist.
designing from a blank page will make that more exciting.

[RVDT]

It's not a certified aircraft with an Air Worthiness Certficate, it's a "permit to fly" aircraft.

How much CAA Approval do Hill really need? Does anyone know?

Have a go at reading the UKCAA CAPS - Start at 659 and go from there. Get back to us with the "gotcha's". Currently there may be a few.

[hargreaves99]

errr, HX50 has 5 seats?



https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1360x970/screen_shot_2023_05_30_at_20_19_28_408b99b2b57005370d9f2549c c6c60e9c919f22b.png

[Agile]

I was really fine with the standard Whelen light, and I know were to find them in a hurry

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1200x583/untitleda_9430e481c38aba7851163f72e7cb002a4d000d8b.jpg



https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1200x723/untitledb_2b84b9fdb48f28bf63bae3b2f5295588922b1a53.jpg

[Hughes500]

Bellblade, I m sure they do but some of the costs OEM charge for putting paperwork on items is eye watering. Wasnt that long ago for instance i had 2 owners needing a new clutch on a 341. One was on the Bosnian register so clutch came from Bosnia around £ 8k. The other clutch for a G ref ac couldnt have a clutch overhauled in Bosnia, it came from your favourite helicopter manufacturer with a price tag of over £ 27 k opened the box and what a surprise the clutch came from the factory in Bosnia, nice work to just put a piece of paper on it. As owner of over 35 different helicopters over the years I could give you numerous examples of ridiculous pricing for parts that quite frankly are of **** quality and wouldn't pass basic quality control at any automotive manufacturer. ( before you ask my QM used to be a chief quality auditor at a large automotive company and was applied at the lack of quality control in our industry, eg HTC blades and a Tq inspection to stop the blades falling apart, 10 years later done nothing to change the process of blade manufacture, to cure the root cause. As my QM says that would not happen in automotive ) If Hill can bring sensible manufacturing to his machines and lets be frank he is not doing anything that radical, just bringing the best ideas from all sorts of industries he is onto a winner. Of course he will have problems , I would guess supply shortages of things like Titanium would be a killer at the moment.

[admikar]

Bellblade, I m sure they do but some of the costs OEM charge for putting paperwork on items is eye watering. Wasnt that long ago for instance i had 2 owners needing a new clutch on a 341. One was on the Bosnian register so clutch came from Bosnia around £ 8k. The other clutch for a G ref ac couldnt have a clutch overhauled in Bosnia, it came from your favourite helicopter manufacturer with a price tag of over £ 27 k opened the box and what a surprise the clutch came from the factory in Bosnia, nice work to just put a piece of paper on it. As owner of over 35 different helicopters over the years I could give you numerous examples of ridiculous pricing for parts that quite frankly are of **** quality and wouldn't pass basic quality control at any automotive manufacturer. ( before you ask my QM used to be a chief quality auditor at a large automotive company and was applied at the lack of quality control in our industry, eg HTC blades and a Tq inspection to stop the blades falling apart, 10 years later done nothing to change the process of blade manufacture, to cure the root cause. As my QM says that would not happen in automotive ) If Hill can bring sensible manufacturing to his machines and lets be frank he is not doing anything that radical, just bringing the best ideas from all sorts of industries he is onto a winner. Of course he will have problems , I would guess supply shortages of things like Titanium would be a killer at the moment.
Question: people that already signed up, are they on fixed price contract?

[hargreaves99]

yes they are.


Question: people that already signed up, are they on fixed price contract?

[hargreaves99]

Re: HC50 (the certified version of the HX50)

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1436x472/1_18700d3ec4943661b59eb71783eb1c0aaded208c.png
https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1438x782/screen_shot_2023_05_31_at_10_45_24_41586125fde31340685aca74f 2482f9eddf178ee.png

[toptobottom]

Unbelievable.

Hill can change anything it wants at its own discretion and for any reason, and delay deliveries indefinitely, with neither consequences for Hill, nor compensation for the customer?

Why would anyone want to sign that? :eek:​​​​​​​

[206 jock]

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1080x720/picture2_87d508a6ec60363e3a138f9b401a8f45c499ecce.png

[alicopter]

Is that a picture of you 206 jock? You look great. You must be fun to be around.. Can I co-pilot you? Will you marry me? Ha, crotte, my wife is back, got to go….
Are those pearls real or fake?… Oh, never mind,

[SansAnhedral]

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1346x1292/1_63c7fd0fd0941e6fd7f4dc9903319594c9ade762.jpg

I'll admit I am not a prodigy regarding mechanics, but can someone explain what is so revolutionary about this rotor system?
It looks a lot what Airbus calls spheriflex rotor head?

I see absolutely nothing notable or revolutionary about this rotor system whatsoever to preclude Hill from discussing its design and manufacture progress, particularly since he claims IP issues prevent disclosure when the patents are publicly available.

Red flag #6,347

[hargreaves99]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XzKUMxs0xIA

"this thing is getting real, you better come and join us"


------------


https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/general-aviation/2023-02-01/hill-helicopters-tops-700-orders

extract:

Options include in-seat electric heaters and air-conditioned seat ventilation; a refrigerated center console compartment beneath the armrest cushion to chill drinks and snacks; and a power supply for each passenger’s tablet computer with audio streamed directly to passenger headsets. The audio fully integrates with the digital cockpit and onboard audio system.

Each passenger seat can support rear-facing, forward-facing, and booster seats for children. Other options include a pilot-operable folding blade system, a Helimove electric ground handling system, Home Base secure wireless link to power hangar doors, skids or wheeled gear, and an emergency float system. The digital cockpit can include synthetic vision. A two-axis autopilot is standard, a four-axis is optional.

[[email protected]]

We got WiFi and a fridge but no engine..........

[hargreaves99]

To be honest, these days wi-fi is considered a basic human right and many people under the age of 40 can't function without it


https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/900x470/1_305339ea6b92434a9d90581de15634ac43aab676.jpg

[admikar]

That's all great, but how much will it weigh with all those options?

[hargreaves99]

MTOW 1650 kg
minimum 140 kt cruise
175 gallons of fuel (5 hours)
can hover at 10,000 feet at MTOW




https://youtu.be/P2PmO5fVHww

[admikar]

MTOW 1650 kg
minimum 140 kt cruise
175 gallons of fuel (5 hours)
can hover at 10,000 feet at MTOW




https://youtu.be/P2PmO5fVHww
I know that. What I would like to know is how much all those nice options listed above will eat into usefull load?

[hargreaves99]

I guess if you have enough power to hover at max weight, at 10,000 feet, a few kilos for a fridge isn't going to make much difference?

[Bell_ringer]

I guess if you have enough power to hover at max weight, at 10,000 feet, a few kilos for a fridge isn't going to make much difference?

not if you can only fit 80kg’s of person in the aircraft.
mtow is irrelevant, what is the usable load after you kit it out like a pimp’s Roller..?
Along with the incredible endurance/range they have promised, but as yet have failed to prove.

[hargreaves99]

I think you can fit about 300 kg of "belief" in the baggage bay too

[whoknows idont]

Bellblade, I m sure they do but some of the costs OEM charge for putting paperwork on items is eye watering. Wasnt that long ago for instance i had 2 owners needing a new clutch on a 341. [...]

This is literally the fourth time you've posted the story in this thread. Going in circles?

[admikar]

There is no denying that OEMs are milking customers.
We'll see how Hill will behave if he gets his bird in the air.

[bellblade2014]

This is literally the fourth time you've posted the story in this thread. Going in circles?

IKR… not all oems are like that and the bulk of the bad stories I hear about these days are from European OEM’s having to deal with the web of EASA and local airworthiness authorities. I suspect Hill will struggle mightily here and expose customers to significant safety and compliance risks.

But only if they successfully mount the unicorn Pegasus they are chasing. I would bet they run out of cash and “greater fools” in the next 36 months chasing that delusive/elusive creature.

[Hughes500]

yup because people dont get it

[Bell_ringer]

yup because people dont get it

We all get it, just some of us think it’s anecdotal nonsense solely intended to support an inherent bias.

[chopper2004]

https://youtu.be/q_5GdnQHolo

cheers

[Kemble Pitts]

That fuselage is an impressive piece of work, and a great milestone to achieve in the HX50 programme.

[Shagpile]

Latest update is an hour long video. Basically technically detailed progress in lots of areas.

- Composites: Detail. Focus towards production. Doors. Shortly start the production moulds using lessons learned including stable ground reference (read: bolted to floor) for entire process to reduce some warping when pastes dry. Target towards perfect surface finish of main fuselage.
- Lighting clusters, including nav lights.
- Engine:
-- Overall finalising life/performance/weight design optimisation. Production techniques finalising for the difficult parts.
-- Compressor: fatigue life optimisation, finished design & sealing strategy. Redesigned stub shaft completed. First part for performance/endurance testing in engine being made next.
-- Power turbine: Cast to bladed disc finalised. New fir tree design finished. Redeveloped shroud (0.2mm clearance) including blade failure containment layers.
-- Blades: Production technique successful using inert gas blade casting instead of vacuum for turbine blades successful (lower cost). Spark erosion of fir tree instead of grinding. Tests back show process works after some tweaks to ensure no brittleness. Again much cheaper apparently.
-- Combustor: Fuel system finalised. Production tooling for roll/spin/press/laser/drill underway. Finalised fuel piping around outside of engine - apparently "modern" design more easily serviced & built. Showed how they press-roll the rings.
-- Labyrinth seals optimisations.
-- Lots of cast housing components demonstrated & simplification/weight reduction underway by an expert in that area. Design-for-manufacture review over all of these components.
-- Drivetrain/gears: components being made for the test machine.

- Rotor: modern high inertia composite design.
-- Mast/Head: Some minor info on this, but still seeking patent protection. History is last 6 month development on the cowl size. Blowing out can double entire aircraft drag if it gets too large. Looks like it'll be composite strap pack and he's got it into an "elegant package design". The early test rig will be steel strap pack, but customer machines composite strap pack. Looks like ditching the elastomeric bearing idea (?).
-- Structural dynamic design & composite design of blades. Lots of details. "Very shortly" tooling up, then producing first root end sections for the interface strength, then full blades.
- Digi cockpit update: progress onto target hardware board(s). Incorporating feedback about some instrument scans. Start integration with infotainment system.
- Some introduction to some new machines commissioned and stuff they're producing. Rotor brake disc, measurement machines to 0.8 microns, sprag clutch.
- Business park (production facility) update: pretty confident about progress & plan B, C, D,.... In-house lawyer on top of it all, plus have legal positions setup once flying ops start. Noise assessments being done by the Gatwick guy who sits on all the noise committees.
- Production engineering: details on progress using production engineer specialists. eg automation, logistics, factory layout, assembly line production & layout. etc.
- CAA inspection next week for design/production organisational approval & groundwork towards certification for HC50.
- Starter generator optimisation & should have one on test stand shortly.

[Bell_ringer]

Lots of waffle, little substance.
If talking made helicopters fly they'd have thousands of hours by now.

[hargreaves99]

I seem to remember Jason Hill previously promised the engine running by "summer 2023" and a prototype flying by "end of 2023"...

I hope everyone has a nice big helping of Humble Pie ready?!

[Bell_ringer]

I seem to remember Jason Hill previously promised the engine running by "summer 2023" and a prototype flying by "end of 2023"...

I hope everyone has a nice big helping of Humble Pie ready?!

When he keeps claiming the number of airframes made as a measure of success and subsequently keeps pointing out how they are fixing it to make it airworthy, less warped and with a “proper” finish you need to understand how that just sets off BS warnings.

[[email protected]]

I think the humble pie is safe in the freezer for a while yet.....

[Aluminium Mallard]

When he keeps claiming the number of airframes made as a measure of success and subsequently keeps pointing out how they are fixing it to make it airworthy, less warped and with a “proper” finish you need to understand how that just sets off BS warnings.

Airframes which are reasonably easy to produce with existing technology however you would be excused for thinking its revolutionary watching the videos.
I would expect you would want at least some dynamic components before finalising the airframes but I guess that wouldn't attract as much investment.

[chopper2004]

Another update from three days ago.

https://youtu.be/D5ERVMv9Et0

cheers

[TWT]

A load of dribble and waffle about the doors. 'A handle that feels nice and satisfying in your hand'... :p

[Hughes500]

TWT, have you tried a Bell 505 handle !!!!!!

[Bell_ringer]

The number one thing pilots are concerned about when climbing into a new machine. The door handle.
What nonsense.
Show us a blade. How about the rotorhead?
Something that actually matters.
This is just trivial information to keep the cool aid dispenser full.

[admikar]

I think the point he is trying to make is that it would feel a lot nicer to have a flying helicopter. Door handle can be added later

[hargreaves99]

184 days to go then..

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1944x306/screen_shot_2023_07_03_at_17_09_09_488b078a2b1678b4139c631f8 b10bb1bfa19a42d.png

[admikar]

184 days to go then..

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1944x306/screen_shot_2023_07_03_at_17_09_09_488b078a2b1678b4139c631f8 b10bb1bfa19a42d.png
Which timeline slip is this?

[hargreaves99]

Crab best defrost his pie on Dec 30th....

[206 jock]

It's odd to compare the Airbus Racer update and the latest Hill version. Both claim to be on track for a first flight before the end of the year. Airbus appears more believable!

[SansAnhedral]

- Rotor: modern high inertia composite design.
-- Mast/Head: Some minor info on this, but still seeking patent protection. History is last 6 month development on the cowl size. Blowing out can double entire aircraft drag if it gets too large. Looks like it'll be composite strap pack and he's got it into an "elegant package design". The early test rig will be steel strap pack, but customer machines composite strap pack. Looks like ditching the elastomeric bearing idea (?).

Again, the idea the rotor design can't be explained and discussed with investors when the patents have already been filed and are in public domain is bollocks. Protection is first to file.

If they haven't already finished fabrication and begun testing of flight worthy rotor design parts, there's zero chance of any flying within the next calendar year.

[Agile]

The number one thing pilots are concerned about when climbing into a new machine. The door handle.
What nonsense.
what is wrong with using of-the-shelve items from existing mass production lines for the little things and move on to the important stuff
AS350 used the Renault Horn as an RRPM alarm, and Lamborghini used Nissan 300ZX headlights. examples are countless

[hargreaves99]

Because Jason Hill wants to manufacture and control absolutely every nut and bolt on the aircraft. A bold visionary, or a crackpot. You decide.



what is wrong with using of-the-shelve items from existing mass production lines for the little things and move on to the important stuff
AS350 used the Renault Horn as an RRPM alarm, and Lamborghini used Nissan 300ZX headlights. examples are countless

[hargreaves99]

planning decision delayed again, until 10th Aug 2023

Planning Applications - Staffordshire Moorlands District Council (http://publicaccess.staffsmoorlands.gov.uk/portal/servlets/ApplicationSearchServlet?PKID=161684)

[hargreaves99]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T1Vu62wwNHc

"we should be in a position to test the engine by the autumn"

Lots of waffle but the question "when will he first flight be?" was avoided

[Bell_ringer]

If only he would spend as much time talking about the rotor system as he does about ball bearings.

[[email protected]]

Might have to think about cryogenic storage for the humble pie - don't want it to go off in the freezer......

[Bell_ringer]

Might have to think about cryogenic storage for the humble pie - don't want it to go off in the freezer......

You could ask Mr Hill to engineer a fresh one for you.
By the time he has reinvented all the ingredients, it should buy you a year or two :}

[[email protected]]

And it would far exceed the capability of any previous humble pie - he just needs a few £million to help fund the costs of ingredients......


There has been much made of the innovation involved in this aircraft and the reinventing of helicopter design and production - does that sound familiar to anyone with reference to the Titan submersible?

[Bell_ringer]

There has been much made of the innovation involved in this aircraft and the reinventing of helicopter design and production - does that sound familiar to anyone with reference to the Titan submersible?

With all the Carbon Fibre and messaging, I was thinking the same. It comes across as the lovechild of Theranos and Oceangate.
Hopefully a bit more care goes into this engineering effort. If not, it will at least be a lot easier to find.

[Shagpile]

This thread is a classic Early Adopters vs Laggards in Diffusion of Innovation theory. We are fundamentally different people with different personalities & risk profiles.

Laggards: Will wait 10-15 years and finally buy one once their next Robinson 12 year calendar is due, and the guy down the road in the sexier aircraft, with half the running cost, 2.5x the range & payload is taking all the business. Won't listen to early adopters and will still come up with excuses about why they were right when it's 6-18 months delayed. Will celebrate if the project fails, then complain when their Robinson rebuild is due. Has an opinion about why FADEC DO178C certification will never happen, but needs help with their VCR (but probably built their house with their bare hands). Looks into the rear-view mirror about why it won't work, rather than into technical reasons about why it can work. Yet somehow ignores historical success stories such as Frank Robinson doing it with a slide rule. Does not understand why somebody would support a grifter; after all, they should come up with their own capital, not risk customers deposits. Even though they aren't one.

Early Adopters: Finds the project online after researching the incumbents and realising they are all crap, and/or too expensive, or massive trade-offs in range/payload/speed/cost. Watches a few tech video's, does some basic due diligence, and puts in an order. Couldn't change the oil in their car but may enjoy reading about turbine blade super alloy metrology and active tip clearance control. Understands that the guy who made the last five Rolls Royce Engines probably has it under control. Enjoy and/or tolerate risk. Happy to drop a non-refundable ￡50k to secure a slot & ￡130k discount. Don't mind delays in the program. Would rather wait and have something 5x better than anybody else in the industry for 1/10th the cost, done properly. Enjoy having questions personally answered by the CEO in AMA/Forums, and feel personally part of the feedback loop. Generally the opinion leader in their peer group on new and emerging technologies.

https://www.ou.edu/deptcomm/dodjcc/groups/99A2/theories.htm

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1400x800/production_adoption_curve_38e9446af8b7500d59868fc3f45b53557a 012fbb.png



https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1196x713/characteristics_innovators_to_laggards_ee0d756c974eedead07eb be0c2f55c2f0d53715c.png

[Bell_ringer]

This thread is a classic Early Adopters vs Laggards in Diffusion of Innovation theory. We are fundamentally different people with different personalities & risk profiles.


There is some of that. But those early adopters also make great marks for a con, so willing to leap and driven by FOMO.
As a counter I would offer the hype cycle, and with Hill we are galloping towards the trough of disillusionment.
I have made my business from seeking out new technologies, filtering the good from the bad, and taking them to market.
I am all for change and disruption, but I know what is involved to innovate and make it real.
There is a fine line between BS and good salesmanship and if you can't spot the difference you may end up disappointed.

It's worth adding, I admire his commitment and conviction. The scale of this endeavour is immense and properly fraught with risk and the opportunity to fail.
Good intentions and ambition are good stuff, but it doesn't pay the bills.
Any innovator that has survived startup and gone on to change their industry has flirted with failure and, often, had to break many rules to do it. No industry wants to be changed and will resist any threat to their own livelihoods.
Yes, it is only money, you could look at it that way.

But when, if, it takes off there is much more at risk.
Something those last occupants of Titan learned the hard way.

[[email protected]]

Diffusion of Innovation theory Which is, as you state, a theory. Stockton Rush was very firmly in the innovators field and look how well that worked out.

I am all for advancement of technology but if I'm going to strap myself and my family into an aircraft, it will have to be well proven before I do.

If you want the 'He wouldn't listen as he always knew better' epitaph then please enjoy the ride on the left side of the curve - me? I'm happy in the middle thanks.

Progress at any cost isn't progress, it's Darwinism.

[admikar]

This thread is a classic Early Adopters vs Laggards in Diffusion of Innovation theory. We are fundamentally different people with different personalities & risk profiles.

Laggards: Will wait 10-15 years and finally buy one once their next Robinson 12 year calendar is due, and the guy down the road in the sexier aircraft, with half the running cost, 2.5x the range & payload is taking all the business. Won't listen to early adopters and will still come up with excuses about why they were right when it's 6-18 months delayed. Will celebrate if the project fails, then complain when their Robinson rebuild is due. Has an opinion about why FADEC DO178C certification will never happen, but needs help with their VCR (but probably built their house with their bare hands). Looks into the rear-view mirror about why it won't work, rather than into technical reasons about why it can work. Yet somehow ignores historical success stories such as Frank Robinson doing it with a slide rule. Does not understand why somebody would support a grifter; after all, they should come up with their own capital, not risk customers deposits. Even though they aren't one.

Early Adopters: Finds the project online after researching the incumbents and realising they are all crap, and/or too expensive, or massive trade-offs in range/payload/speed/cost. Watches a few tech video's, does some basic due diligence, and puts in an order. Couldn't change the oil in their car but may enjoy reading about turbine blade super alloy metrology and active tip clearance control. Understands that the guy who made the last five Rolls Royce Engines probably has it under control. Enjoy and/or tolerate risk. Happy to drop a non-refundable ￡50k to secure a slot & ￡130k discount. Don't mind delays in the program. Would rather wait and have something 5x better than anybody else in the industry for 1/10th the cost, done properly. Enjoy having questions personally answered by the CEO in AMA/Forums, and feel personally part of the feedback loop. Generally the opinion leader in their peer group on new and emerging technologies.

https://www.ou.edu/deptcomm/dodjcc/groups/99A2/theories.htm

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1400x800/production_adoption_curve_38e9446af8b7500d59868fc3f45b53557a 012fbb.png



https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1196x713/characteristics_innovators_to_laggards_ee0d756c974eedead07eb be0c2f55c2f0d53715c.png
Problem is, no one here said it couldn't be done. Everything can be done if you pour enough money into it.
We said it can't be done in time, with performance and price it was promised at. So far, timeline has slipped and price has gone up (more than just accounting for increased supplies prices). Performance is still to be seen.

[Encyclo]

With all the Carbon Fibre and messaging, I was thinking the same. It comes across as the lovechild of Theranos and Oceangate.
Hopefully a bit more care goes into this engineering effort. If not, it will at least be a lot easier to find.

Going deeper into the carbon fiber issue, I see no consideration being given to the heat impingement from the turbine exhaust directly onto the tailboom. The adhesives they appear to be using are low grade/low temperature systems; not good. I worked on a composite tailboom program in the early 90s and one of our main considerations was heat exposure. We identified BMI resins as a solution, providing a heat shield would also be used. If you look at existing helicopters with metal tailbooms today, you will see many are now using heat shields for this reason.

Fly Safe, Always :ok:

[SansAnhedral]

what is wrong with using of-the-shelve items from existing mass production lines for the little things and move on to the important stuff
AS350 used the Renault Horn as an RRPM alarm, and Lamborghini used Nissan 300ZX headlights. examples are countless

If memory serves me correctly, the S-76 door handles are from a mid 70s Ford though I can't recall which model.

[hargreaves99]

Interesting about the "Early Adopters vs Laggards" stuff

I predict Hill will get an HX50 off the ground, ie in a hover, (with a fancy video) around July 2024, this will unlock a further load of investment from people waiting on the sidelines.

I predict production will start in Jan 2025, but it will be slow progress, and they won't be making 500 aircraft a year for many many years

[Torquetalk]

If memory serves me correctly, the S-76 door handles are from a mid 70s Ford though I can't recall which model.

With a door locking pin that can be over-ridden from the outside but not the inside. Genius.

[Hughes500]

Crab So you wont be getting in a Boeing 737 then with its latest innovations ???????

[hargreaves99]

I think any right-minded person would....

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/318x134/screen_shot_2023_07_14_at_08_00_32_7a48cc57f3f0f2c449f804b9c 7a34bb987739811.png

[Bell_ringer]

Crab So you wont be getting in a Boeing 737 then with its latest innovations ???????

Clearly you haven't been following the MAX debacle and all those that lost their loves thanks to self-regulation and engineering shortcuts?
Almost put Boeing out of business.

[[email protected]]

Crab So you wont be getting in a Boeing 737 then with its latest innovations ??????? you mean where they took an unstable aircraft and applied an even more unstable software fix to it?:ok:

As you know there is a 737 sim in South Devon and they explained it to me when I took my son there for a birthday trip.:ok:

Yes, I did avoid the 737 MAX until it had been sorted. Again, innovation that cost lives because someone thought they knew better.

[[email protected]]

I think any right-minded person would....

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/318x134/screen_shot_2023_07_14_at_08_00_32_7a48cc57f3f0f2c449f804b9c 7a34bb987739811.png
Although the Titan had been used a few times and outwardly appeared successful - the 747 if I remember correctly took a while to crack due to repeated pressurisation cycles - same as the Comet.

[206 jock]

This thread is a classic Early Adopters vs Laggards in Diffusion of Innovation theory. We are fundamentally different people with different personalities & risk profiles.

Laggards: Will wait 10-15 years and finally buy one once their next Robinson 12 year calendar is due, and the guy down the road in the sexier aircraft, with half the running cost, 2.5x the range & payload is taking all the business. Won't listen to early adopters and will still come up with excuses about why they were right when it's 6-18 months delayed. Will celebrate if the project fails, then complain when their Robinson rebuild is due. Has an opinion about why FADEC DO178C certification will never happen, but needs help with their VCR (but probably built their house with their bare hands). Looks into the rear-view mirror about why it won't work, rather than into technical reasons about why it can work. Yet somehow ignores historical success stories such as Frank Robinson doing it with a slide rule. Does not understand why somebody would support a grifter; after all, they should come up with their own capital, not risk customers deposits. Even though they aren't one.

Early Adopters: Finds the project online after researching the incumbents and realising they are all crap, and/or too expensive, or massive trade-offs in range/payload/speed/cost. Watches a few tech video's, does some basic due diligence, and puts in an order. Couldn't change the oil in their car but may enjoy reading about turbine blade super alloy metrology and active tip clearance control. Understands that the guy who made the last five Rolls Royce Engines probably has it under control. Enjoy and/or tolerate risk. Happy to drop a non-refundable ￡50k to secure a slot & ￡130k discount. Don't mind delays in the program. Would rather wait and have something 5x better than anybody else in the industry for 1/10th the cost, done properly. Enjoy having questions personally answered by the CEO in AMA/Forums, and feel personally part of the feedback loop. Generally the opinion leader in their peer group on new and emerging technologies.



Hmm. I'm struggling to see which group you belong to ;-) I had to check that you didn't register for Prune the day after CRAN was outed. I'm sure we're all really pleased that you are such a cool, risk taking cat.

As you enjoy the AMA concept so much, has anyone asked 'what happens if the CEO gets run over by a bus or absconds to a desert island somewhere' and got an honest answer? After all, he is chief engineer/CFO/planning expert etc so probably pretty important to the process - a single point of failure is never ideal. CRAN did answer this once before with something condescending, but that was when he was active under his nom de plume so is therefore not legitimate.

BTW I'm not sure you meant 'grifter' in your description. Let's hope its not prescient.

[hargreaves99]

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1458x410/1_b5f7760c5433a32c1a30db4ba9962f4864f94c46.png

[hargreaves99]

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1450x380/screen_shot_2023_07_17_at_21_12_28_df6328364df89e6c30e8b93cb aa1139fbf13ce38.png

[CGameProgrammerr]

10.4 is very good, exactly the sort of thing you'd want to see. Not sure what you're trying to point out by printing it here. Section 9 is also standard stuff, saying customers can't demand their money back due to delays. If they could then the company would go bankrupt because delays always happen in aircraft development. Even Boeing and Airbus take much longer than they anticipate. And regulatory approval can take forever. Luckily, in the US, no approval is needed for experimentals aside from one person looking it over to make sure it's not obviously unairworthy, like a contraption someone put together in their garage. Not sure about the UK or EU though.

[212man]

10.4 is very good, exactly the sort of thing you'd want to see. Not sure what you're trying to point out by printing it here. Section 9 is also standard stuff, saying customers can't demand their money back due to delays. If they could then the company would go bankrupt because delays always happen in aircraft development. Even Boeing and Airbus take much longer than they anticipate. And regulatory approval can take forever. Luckily, in the US, no approval is needed for experimentals aside from one person looking it over to make sure it's not obviously unairworthy, like a contraption someone put together in their garage. Not sure about the UK or EU though.

For delayed regulatory approval, just look at the H160 and the FAA. I’m sure there were some interesting conversations in the Shell and PHI leadership teams!

[admikar]

Question regarding 10.4: if deposits are used for R&D, how are they going to refund in worst case scenario?

[206 jock]

Question regarding 10.4: if deposits are used for R&D, how are they going to refund in worst case scenario?
​​​​
Good question, probably depends on what 10.3 says. But safe to say if the money has been spent, there's little chance that it will ever come back. Any depositor would come at the back of the queue of creditors. But really any depositor knows that. Better hope Dr Hill is wrapped in cotton wool until at least first flight.

[CGameProgrammerr]

There is no way he'd be in the helicopter for early test flights; neither was Frank Robinson. A lead engineer / CEO is not a test pilot. He'll use an actual experienced test pilot.

[206 jock]

There is no way he'd be in the helicopter for early test flights; neither was Frank Robinson. A lead engineer / CEO is not a test pilot. He'll use an actual experienced test pilot.
Err, not what I meant. He has nothing of value to a prospective buyer until his machine flies. Until then it's an ego trip and an engineer's dream.

[hargreaves99]

Jason Hill has posted an "Economic Benefits Summary" on the planning portal.

http://publicaccess.staffsmoorlands.gov.uk/portal/servlets/AttachmentShowServlet?ImageName=333638

extracts:

- Hill’s turnover will rise from £250m to £1.5bn between 2025-2032 with 97% of all aircraft
being purchased by overseas customers

- Hill will bring 500 ultra-high net worth clients to our global headquarters every year and
will stay in the area along with their families for two-week periods, offering a significant
boost to the hospitality sector

- Our visiting ultra-high net worth customers will spend a further £1.5m in-area with the hospitality
sector while they stay for two-week periods with their families**.

- Hill has agreed to provide an operating base, free of charge for the Stoke Air Ambulance,
providing critical care and emergency responder cover to the Staffordshire Moorlands
area.

- Some trepidation by residents and members is understandable in the short term*,



* I think the people who currently face the prospect of living next to a busy heliport might disagree with that!
** Will all 500 people really bring their families?

[SWBKCB]

2 weeks near Stoke - everybodies dream, surely?

[hargreaves99]

"ultra-high net worth clients"

stop laughing at the back!

[206 jock]

Jeesh. Just what the sector needs. More snouts in the AA trough. Don't suppose DRLAA will be happy.

Mind you, the ego that led that outfit has now departed. about time too

[hargreaves99]

Does the new Stoke Air Ambulance helipad require separate planning permission?

[casper64]

"ultra-high net worth clients"

stop laughing at the back!

And those people are going to buy a non proven, cheap, small, non-IFR certified, single engine helicopter??? 😂😂😂 I am pretty sure they will go for S-70, H160/175 or AW169/189… I think only the “wannabe” just made millionaire might go for a cheap, but good looking “show-off” vehicle..

[Bell_ringer]

"ultra-high net worth clients"

stop laughing at the back!

It's ultra-high net BS.
The one's I know on the list are tighter than the proverbial ducks arse.
That might actually align with his estimates as it only equates to 214 squid per day per family, accommodation, travel and so forth.

[[email protected]]

That humble pie is looking safer by the day.....

[hargreaves99]

Why has this "Economic Benefits Summary" only just been submitted by Hill to the planning portal?

[206 jock]

Why has this "Economic Benefits Summary" only just been submitted by Hill to the planning portal?
Be fair. Jason has been a bit busy designing the door handles, the combustion liner, the UX displays, the fenestron, doing the accounts if all 10 companies with up to three employees in each. Only so many hours in the day!

[[email protected]]

Why has this "Economic Benefits Summary" only just been submitted by Hill to the planning portal?
Because he is trying to BS the planning committee who thus far haven't seen any merit in his plans

[hargreaves99]

I don't understand how he can say he is giving the "stoke air ambulance" a free helipad, when a) they don't exist yet, and b) this has not been part of the Hill planning permission. Just seems like something Hill have suddenly said to sway the planning decision.

I bet the local residents are fuming.

[Bravo73]

I don't understand how he can say he is giving the "stoke air ambulance" a free helipad, when a) they don't exist yet, and b) this has not been part of the Hill planning permission. Just seems like something Hill have suddenly said to sway the planning decision.

I bet the local residents are fuming.

FYI, (FWIW), the ‘Stoke Air Ambulance/helipad’ was mentioned in the original planning application.

[netstruggler]

"ultra-high net worth clients"

stop laughing at the back!

and will stay in the area along with their families for two-week periods,

Really?

[HeliHenri]

FYI, (FWIW), the ‘Stoke Air Ambulance/helipad’ was mentioned in the original planning application.

You have ruined the day of several forum members ! :}
.

[VM325]

Because he is trying to BS the planning committee who thus far haven't seen any merit in his plans

I'm not sure if it's actually got to the committee yet...

[Hughes500]

Is it any wonder this country is totally fooked. Here is a guy trying to bring jobs and something fairly revolutionary to the UK. Yes it might fail, but he at least has the bollocks to try, dont see any of you lot trying . My family have had a lot to do with planning over the years, they have being asked ( told ) if you want permission you will have to build the community a library, a public convenience or some such other thing or in one case a load of brown envelopes . I guess it is the typical negativity we see in this country, i bet most of you work for the BBC !

[Bell_ringer]

if you want permission you will have to build the community a library, a public convenience or some such other thing or in one case a load of brown envelopes.

Brown envelopes is the only way it works here, but leather briefcases also will suffice.
If Clarkson can't get a parking lot, what hope do you think there is of anyone accepting a bunch of rich folks coming to ruin their community with their helicopter playthings?
The average punter in the UK seems to despise anyone with cash, and if Hill didn't figure that this would be a problem, then that is a bit naive.

I said from the start he would be better off manufacturing offshore.
Once he actually has a product, that is.

[chopper2004]

From their FB page post yesterday

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1440x959/img_0862_4909b59a415aafd7586bdbaaa8e433fd09d0d6ee.jpeg

cheers

[Tickle]

Well that is certainly a little exciting to see!

Even has a human being for reference.

[[email protected]]

Not impressed with the undercarriage:)

[hargreaves99]

factory planning permission decision delayed AGAIN...until 14th Sept 2023

Planning Applications - Staffordshire Moorlands District Council (http://publicaccess.staffsmoorlands.gov.uk/portal/servlets/ApplicationSearchServlet?PKID=161684)

[Bell_ringer]

factory planning permission decision delayed AGAIN...until 14th Sept 2023


After reading his economic benefits for the community submission, maybe they needed a month to stop laughing? :E

[chopper2004]

From their FB today

https://scontent-lcy1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/365455191_987964965910004_592403211341210807_n.jpg?_nc_cat=1 04&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=C5G_sf5QMVYAX_0Q7bX&_nc_ht=scontent-lcy1-1.xx&oh=00_AfAfLn9pMXaXPY6A9eI8DfsZRSX8iGapYB1x5VwPp0rzrg&oe=64D04DC8
https://scontent-lcy1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/365063065_987964962576671_7424108204788470755_n.jpg?_nc_cat= 104&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=1wZHrRHxV_oAX9nOyur&_nc_ht=scontent-lcy1-1.xx&oh=00_AfBv0rUXcSEI6ROVwiyJ-7MwOpTYW90dgLojJger0C1_hA&oe=64CF1CFF

https://scontent-lcy1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/365268489_987964955910005_4406644380920252303_n.jpg?_nc_cat= 100&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=y43QpSnVPIgAX82J7zF&_nc_ht=scontent-lcy1-1.xx&oh=00_AfByHtWG65_L7ZrLHdcKohcmNKqFXDZ4OfyqWq497XrMSQ&oe=64CF653D
cheers

[[email protected]]

So now all they need is an engine, transmission, undercarriage, flying controls, seats and perspex for the other side and it's nearly finished.........

[RVDT]

So now all they need is an engine, transmission, undercarriage, flying controls, seats and perspex for the other side and it's nearly finished.........

And a good SAS.......................?

[hargreaves99]

Crab, you best bring your humble pie to the big Hill HX event at Duxford in Dec!

https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/business-aviation/2023-05-30/hill-helicopters-order-book-tops-800

“When you come to the event, you will be able to experience HX50 for the very first time. You'll be able to sit in the seats, you'll be able to see the lines of the aircraft, use the digital cockpit and experience what it's going to be like to own one of these for yourself,” said Hill CEO and founder Jason Hill during his monthly webcast. “You’ll also get to experience the GT50 engine for the first time. And we’ll be rolling out the drivetrain and the rotor systems.”

[Bell_ringer]

“You’ll also get to experience the GT50 engine for the first time. And we’ll be rolling out the drivetrain and the rotor systems.”

That doesn't bode well for it flying, conventionally the engine, drivetrain and rotor systems are attached to the aircraft.
It will no doubt be a very pretty looking demo/mockup, but until it leaves the ground under its own steam, I think Crab's pie can remain securely preserved in the freezer.

[[email protected]]

That doesn't bode well for it flying, conventionally the engine, drivetrain and rotor systems are attached to the aircraft.
It will no doubt be a very pretty looking demo/mockup, but until it leaves the ground under its own steam, I think Crab's pie can remain securely preserved in the freezer.

Yes, I think it's safe.

'You'll be able to sit in the seats (will they actually be in the cockpit), see the lines of the aircraft (look at it from outside), use the digital cockpit (we've got a workstation in the hangar with a computer simulation of it) and we'll be rolling out the drivetrain and rotor systems (nothing attached to the aircraft but we have a pre-production model on wheels)"

[admikar]

OK, I must have missed it, but crab's pie is referenced to what? HX50 flying for the first time? Or being on track for time, price and performance? If the later, you can already donate it to those in the need.

[hargreaves99]

I am not sure, "Crab's HX50 pie" is more of a theoretical concept, as oppose to a tangible object

(rather like the HX50 itself)

[Tickle]

The door handles look quite nice.

[sandringham1]

Interesting Youtube interview with a business working on a similarly sized power plant to the Hill unit. TurbAero are developing a new turbine engine in the 200hp class for GA applications, time scales and parts sourcing mentioned. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LUpsT-iBw1E

[Prizmatic]

Interesting Youtube interview with a business working on a similarly sized power plant to the Hill unit. TurbAero are developing a new turbine engine in the 200hp class for GA applications, time scales and parts sourcing mentioned. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LUpsT-iBw1E

Humble guy making sensible claims and not offering it to fools for no money... the polar opposite of Hill (with an H).

[hargreaves99]

4 months until it flies...

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1866x274/screen_shot_2023_08_11_at_09_57_54_55a1db5b7f8382d9d182a37d1 79eb42b267e9696.png

[[email protected]]

Oink, oink, oink:)

[hargreaves99]

start the slow defrost now?

you don't want to rush it and have to defrost in the microwave at 11pm on 31st Dec

[[email protected]]

I think the use of the words 'currently scheduled to take flight' leaves loads of room for slippage (sorry, rescheduling) - getting test flying done in winter weather will be interesting.

[Shagpile]

I suspect this long thread will continue to go back and forth as things are designed. “He got an engine but look it blew up ha ha”. “Look it flies but they had ground resonance how **** is that”. “They made their factory but it was late”. “Oh yeah they are selling but it’s a long wait time and £100k more than they promised”. “Oh look it only goes 140kts, all those hill evangilists said it would probably go 160”. “Haha look it’s got an AD for this issue now - we said that would be a problem 3 years ago”. People will always complain.

Haters gonna hate I guess.

[Bell_ringer]

Haters gonna hate I guess.

Quoting Taylor Swift lyrics? Must be that discerning sense of style and taste Hill keeps telling us his market has :E

[[email protected]]

Haters gonna hate I guess. No haters here - just people who want to see the promises materialise - Hill set himself on a pedestal making bold claims about a product he hadn't built - is he worthy of that pedestal or is he a false idol being worshipped?

[nikoel]

Haters gonna hate I guess.

Ain't it funny? Rumors fly
And I know you heard about Hill's
So hey, let's be friends
I'm dying to see how this grift ends
Grab Hill's door handle and my hand
He can make bad promises good... for at least a decade

[hargreaves99]

My own personal prediction is that Hill will get - -something- in the air by Spring 2024, there will be fancy video etc and lots of talk, and this will unlock a ton of new funding/orders, and this saga will run for another 5 years at least

[Shagpile]

Quoting Taylor Swift lyrics?

Haha I literally have no idea about this sorry to disappoint

[cyclic_fondler]

Haters gonna hate I guess.

I don't think anyone hates Hill or wants this to fail but he just needs to be more realistic on the time scales. I hope he does make this a success, provide a large amount of direct/indirect jobs and also help bring back aircraft manufacture to the UK. If I had the money, I would invest in an attractive looking HX50 rather than other say a new R44/R66 or a 505!

He can't control the planning purpose, which may have a big effect on the time scales, but he should give updates to manage clients/buyers expectations.

Simple questions as I have no idea about these,
Once a helicopter is 50+% built by the owner , what are there any restrictions on the flights? Is there a minimum hours requirement within a certain range of the "build area" ?

Would it not have been better to build the factory on an existing airfield ? Personally, I would have put in planning permissions at atleast two different sites so that the councils would be aware that they could loose lots of jobs by rejecting the planning.

[Resident_01]

I am a resident in the village sorry hamlet and I'd like Dr Hill to tell me where he's got that figure of 1.5m to the area for hospitality when he couldn't answer at the local planning meeting i attended how many decibels take off would be ?
You couldnt spend that in 2 years around here never mind 2 weeks !

Even the planning committee won't fall for that.
As for Stoke Air Ambulance .... pfffft

[CGameProgrammerr]

I do feel it was idiotic for him not to build at or near an airport; people complain about noise from airports too but they were the ones that bought houses near an airport so they have nothing to complain about. But these farmers do have legitimate concerns because Hill is trying to build a heliport where previously there was none, so that would be noise that wasn't there before. They're not that loud of course (not like jets) but obviously property owners will try to stop it.

[Agile]

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1882x1475/hx50_rotor_d2129c349774c18d431c4f4d207d007687df017a.png

[P1tchlink]

Are they electromechanical servos controlling the lower swash plate in place of hydraulics?

The main rotors appear to attach and feather/flap/lead-lag through the use a flex beam and pitch case setup a bit like the MD902 (one of the smoothest helicopters out there).

[206 jock]

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1882x1475/hx50_rotor_d2129c349774c18d431c4f4d207d007687df017a.png
For a helicopter that is due to be flying in 4 months time, that's a lovely render of something that isn't built yet.

[Agile]

I know there is logic for everything, but I am not so excited about the mixing unit in the elements at the rotor head, and push-pull cable controls for a single hydraulic craft.

[hargreaves99]

from facebook

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1122x1110/screen_shot_2023_08_17_at_10_46_58_a645e96ed607bcb7242cd150d 9fef17a04ce5d43.png

[hargreaves99]

over 900 orders placed so far.

some questions at the end, nobody asked "when will it fly?". very odd.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NSyEEyG1V8

[Ascend Charlie]

Lots of glass, maybe a reasonable idea in a cold wet country, but let some sunlight in there, and I don't see a window that can open or a fresh air vent at all. Aircon must be a standard no-cost fitting.

[[email protected]]

Yes, and people think a Gazelle cockpit is hot in the sunshine - that is going to be a proper greenhouse......

[hargreaves99]

"first flight" date just moved to 2024....


https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/2000x376/screen_shot_2023_08_17_at_14_23_41_6e685ade65aa357ed3e7efe6b 58424e5e7d89096.png

[Hughes500]

Air con maybe ?

[CGameProgrammerr]

There absolutely will be air conditioning because all current private helicopter owners always get it if available, but you raise a good point - there must be fresh air vents as well (for comfort as well as CO emergencies) and none are visible. Robinson's window vents are almost useless so I think unvented windows are fine and improve visibility but there should be a nose vent like Robinsons also have.

The screenshotted comment from Facebook is a bit ignorant though - the HX50 will never be certified. Only the HC50 ideally would, but frankly that's such an uphill battle that I doubt it will ever happen.

[206 jock]

"first flight" date just moved to 2024....


https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/2000x376/screen_shot_2023_08_17_at_14_23_41_6e685ade65aa357ed3e7efe6b 58424e5e7d89096.png
Phew! My hat is safe, just the shoe at risk but to be honest, I am not too worried about that, as it's consumption is based on a flight in 2024.

[Bell_ringer]

Lots of glass, maybe a reasonable idea in a cold wet country, but let some sunlight in there, and I don't see a window that can open or a fresh air vent at all. Aircon must be a standard no-cost fitting.

There is a lot of form over function in this design. In harsher, hotter climates I can only see problems. Particularly with that flash, consumer-grade cockpit of his.
Any bets on how much warm/cold climate testing will be done before it is shunted into production?

[hargreaves99]

I notice that the "first flight" date was changed to 2024 within the last two weeks, but this wasn't mentioned by Jason in the latest video at all.

[[email protected]]

Humble pie safe in the freezer for another year:ok:

[206 jock]

I do feel it was idiotic for him not to build at or near an airport; people complain about noise from airports too but they were the ones that bought houses near an airport so they have nothing to complain about. But these farmers do have legitimate concerns because Hill is trying to build a heliport where previously there was none, so that would be noise that wasn't there before. They're not that loud of course (not like jets) but obviously property owners will try to stop it.
Perhaps Dr Hill is aware that getting planning will be very hard and until that's built, he cannot realistically be held to account on production of real, flying aircraft. It probably doesn't help his case when one of his boasts was that the Hill heliport (Hilliport?) would be busier than BHX when it's fully functioning: I wouldn't want to live next door to that, no matter what noise mitigations are in place. And even in the faint hope that he gets planning, there will be loads of conditions to overcome before he can break ground: there will be a pond with Great crested newts within 100m, or a watercourse with watervoles, wildlife-friendly lighting (I kid you not) etc etc that will need approving by the planners.

I have previously mentioned the parallels with the allegedly resurgent TVR car brand: I placed a deposit for one of these back in 2016, with a promise of a car in 2018 - didn't happen of course, but they had a working prototype in that year. There is still no sign of production and 'the factory' was a source of blame for a long while: https://www.evo.co.uk/tvr/16073/tvr-breaks-its-silence-griffith-now-scheduled-for-2023

Forunately, the TVR deposit was refundable.

[hargreaves99]

I think that Jason Hill needed (and still needs) to make bold claims about flight dates and productions numbers etc as he needed (and still needs) a constant supply of £50,000 deposits to bankroll the whole venture.

[Bell_ringer]

I think that Jason Hill needed (and still needs) to make bold claims about flight dates and productions numbers etc as he needed (and still needs) a constant supply of £50,000 deposits to bankroll the whole venture.

Good thing he is a doctor. In the UK there is no one more proficient with long waiting lists :E

[206 jock]

Let's hope that not many depositors pass away before their machine is ready

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/500x749/7w54q9_b4a8b86fb9cf96dfc989927bf27911a9bebbba85.jpg

[hargreaves99]

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/2000x424/screen_shot_2023_08_18_at_10_47_32_fc406bde6b14fd6d2fda9daec cd63ae55c99b9cc.png

[domperry76]

For a bit of extra precision, Hill Helicopters says: "We are planning on starting ground running of the first prototypes by Q2 of next year with flight tests happening shortly after that. We are still planning production to start beginning of 2025."
https://www.flightglobal.com/helicopters/hill-helicopters-plans-first-engine-run-by-year-end-with-hx50-maiden-sortie-likely-by-mid-2024/154622.article

[hargreaves99]

"And although the HX50 has yet to fly, Dr Hill is already contemplating a larger twin-engined variant he tentatively calls the HC80. This would have eight seats, be IFR capable and have a maximum take-off weight of 1.375t."


Could be a SAR version for Crab maybe?

[FloaterNorthWest]

"And although the HX50 has yet to fly, Dr Hill is already contemplating a larger twin-engined variant he tentatively calls the HC80. This would have eight seats, be IFR capable and have a maximum take-off weight of 1.375t."

I think he means 3175 kg.

[hargreaves99]

3175kg means something between an ec135 and the ec155

[ShyTorque]

That would put it in the same market as the A109S and SP.

[hargreaves99]

I bet if Hill knocked up a CGI video and rendering with some specs and 'delivery around 2030' people would be queuing up to place a deposit.

[[email protected]]

Could be a SAR version for Crab maybe? I'm in my early 60s now so based on his current timeline slippage I'd probably be pushing 80 by the time it was available.......:)​​​​​​​ Hope it comes with a stairlift to the cockpit...

[206 jock]

I bet if Hill knocked up a CGI video and rendering with some specs and 'delivery around 2030' people would be queuing up to place a deposit.
Especially as it will be priced at £695,000, no doubt.

Is there the touch of Walter Mitty about Jason Hill? Honestly, his sole focus should be delivering his current project (including showing the world some meaningful moving parts), not dreaming of a range of Hills.

[CGameProgrammerr]

He does say he has contingency options in regards to the factory, which he can't talk about, and I'm sure he does because it'd be foolish not to. Also, even just a flying prototype, or ideally trickling out a couple of production units, would inspire a very large increase in deposits. Starting slow is fine.

[Bell_ringer]

He does say he has contingency options in regards to the factory, which he can't talk about,

He would have to, wouldn't he?
Telling his depositors that he was up ****creek without a paddle wouldn't help future deposits.
He loves to talk about things he wants to talk about (those damn doorhandles) but when it suits him, can't talk about some rather important details (rotor system, facilities).
Very convenient, and his Hillievers lap it up like hungry little puppies.

[hargreaves99]

"CRAN" does read pprune most days, but chooses not to post here anymore.

[206 jock]

Perhaps Dr Hill is aware that getting planning will be very hard and until that's built, he cannot realistically be held to account on production of real, flying aircraft. It probably doesn't help his case when one of his boasts was that the Hill heliport (Hilliport?) would be busier than BHX when it's fully functioning: I wouldn't want to live next door to that, no matter what noise mitigations are in place. And even in the faint hope that he gets planning, there will be loads of conditions to overcome before he can break ground: there will be a pond with Great crested newts within 100m, or a watercourse with watervoles, wildlife-friendly lighting (I kid you not) etc etc that will need approving by the planners.

I have previously mentioned the parallels with the allegedly resurgent TVR car brand: I placed a deposit for one of these back in 2016, with a promise of a car in 2018 - didn't happen of course, but they had a working prototype in that year. There is still no sign of production and 'the factory' was a source of blame for a long while: https://www.evo.co.uk/tvr/16073/tvr-breaks-its-silence-griffith-now-scheduled-for-2023

Fortunately, the TVR deposit was refundable.

Funnily enough, an article in today's Telegraph about TVR and their taxpayer fund assisted factory. Maybe Jason (Hi CRAN!) could move production to the Welsh valleys

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/08/20/taxpayer-funded-welsh-sports-car-factory-empty/

[chopper2004]

Here is another update

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ANonrMW51mA

Cheers

[topradio]

Especially as it will be priced at £695,000, no doubt.

Is there the touch of Walter Mitty about Jason Hill? Honestly, his sole focus should be delivering his current project (including showing the world some meaningful moving parts), not dreaming of a range of Hills.

Or Charles Ponzi

Upping the anti and a promise of jam tomorrow

I'm sure that in the early days John DeLorean was thought to be a genius while those questioning his plans would have been painted as cynics

[hargreaves99]

Engine supposed to be running by the end of this year (2023)

[Bravedave]

Or Charles Ponzi

Upping the anti and a promise of jam tomorrow

I'm sure that in the early days John DeLorean was thought to be a genius while those questioning his plans would have been painted as cynics

Theranos Helicopters, a Holmes Hill collaboration! - should be ready to fly her from prison, maybe..

[PowerPedal]

Theranos Helicopters, a Holmes Hill collaboration! - should be ready to fly her from prison, maybe..

guys!! Lighten up and stop being such grumpy old men. I’ve been viewing all your posts for months now and just see the same handful of guys posting negative comments, largely about the HX50 timeframes being way over ambitious.
yep, you’re all right. There’s no way Jason Hill will meet these timelines. But otherwise I must say he has balls to do what he’s doing. Every month there are significant leaps forward on all fronts. The pace of development is something to acknowledge. Blows out of the water the lethargic pace of development of all the major manufacturers. He will pull this off, it may be 2-5 years before we see full scale production but who cares. He’s revolutionising Aviation and his product is light years ahead in terms of refinement from the overpriced, utilitarian offerings currently there. The R22/R44 is a joke for 2023. Even the R66 is an embarrassment really. I fly an EC120 and love it, but the doors don’t even close properly.
how about you all stop being such grumpy farts and actually applaud Jason Hill for what he’s doing. You are all pilots and helicopter fans, so let’s get behind this. It’s about time our industry gets an agitator.

[206 jock]

^^^^^. Another deposit holder!

Fair enough. The sceptics are all wrong and will regret not buying the Hill and all other helicopters will instantly depreciate by 90% in the day that the first flight happens and zzzzzzz

[[email protected]]

It might be revolutionary and light years ahead when it is finally built and flying - until then it's a fantasy team wish list

[hargreaves99]

900 orders x about £50,000 deposits = about £45 million

looks like we are the idiots and Jason Hill is the smart one!

[PowerPedal]

Fair enough. The sceptics are all wrong and will regret not buying the Hill and all other helicopters will instantly depreciate by 90% in the day that the first flight happens and zzzzzzz[/QUOTE]

Does ANYONE on here npt agree that our industry needs a shake up? All the manufacturers focus on commercial use- sales to charter/tour companies. government EMS and ultra wealthy VIP transport.

An affordable option (both initial outlay and ongoing servicing) for the private owner is very limited. R44: no baggage space and designed over 30yrs ago. R66: looks like a 44 and also throw it away after 12 years. B206: awesome aircraft but very dated now, and rear cabin terrible for rest of the family. Many don’t even have air conditioning. 505: disappointing successor to the mighty Jetranger. And costs over $2m. EC120- great machine but no longer made or supported. Squirrel- really for utility use, and burns 180L/hr, and a new B3 now $5m.

The mere fact that >900 people have put deposits down on the HX50 says there’s a market for a heli designed specifically for private use. That is more than the annual sales of all civilian helicopters from all manufacturers combined. If the HX50 never eventuates, at least all the current manufacturers have now seen the demand and might actually respond and bring something out- eg an EC120 mark 2. Jason Hill made that happen.

but, if he manages to pull it off, he will be the next frank robinson.

[[email protected]]

Essentially crowdfunding a helicopter

[206 jock]

I wonder what the legacy manufacturers think of Hill? Is it #1 item on the agenda of every Board meeting they hold? Is one (or more) of them lining up a purchase of the upstart to take them out of the equation (is that JH's real plan?)?

Or are they mostly concerned that there are few potential purchasers holding off buying one of their machines as they are Hill 'buyers'.

Who knows, eh?

[Hughes500]

206 i think Airbus would fall over themselves to have 900 deposits on their offerings !

[206 jock]

206 i think Airbus would fall over themselves to have 900 deposits on their offerings !
I have no doubt they would receive 900 deposits if they reduced their prices by 75% to Hill levels! Heck, I might even buy two!

[hargreaves99]

I keep meeting more and more people in the UK that have placed a deposit on one.

Hill must be pissing off the major manufacturers a bit, one helicopter sales broker did say to me that Hill was hoovering up a lot of sales that would have gone to the R44/R66/B505/EC120 etc