Garuda cancels its MAX order

[fantom]

A billion-pound order. How many to follow ?

[Andy_S]

Strictly speaking, Garuda have requested cancellation. I very much doubt they can simply walk away from their order.

Garuda have also been at pains to state that they're not necessarily binning Boeing and may look at taking a different 737 variant.

[vilas]

Carriers like Virgin who have a hundred odd 737s dropping their orders for what the NEO? Highly unlikely. Boeing's damage may be restricted because Airbus Neos are booked for the next six years.

[GeeRam]

Garuda have also been at pains to state that they're not necessarily binning Boeing and may look at taking a different 737 variant.

I was under the impression that the order book for the NG versions was closed, and pretty much the final couple of fuselage tubes (other than military P-8 and E-7) have or are just about to leave the plant...?

[Andy_S]

I was under the impression that the order book for the NG versions was closed, and pretty much the final couple of fuselage tubes (other than military P-8 and E-7) have or are just about to leave the plant...?

My apologies. On re-reading the story, Garuda say they may replace it with "another model" rather than another 737 variant, although the inference was that they would stick with Boeing.

[Maninthebar]

My apologies. On re-reading the story, Garuda say they may replace it with "another model" rather than another 737 variant, although the inference was that they would stick with Boeing.

I imagine that this would be because they have already made payments with respect to their MAX order and would want to recover as much of that as possible, a negotiation that would suit both parties

[ATC Watcher]

I was under the impression that the order book for the NG versions was closed, and pretty much the final couple of fuselage tubes (other than military P-8 and E-7) have or are just about to leave the plant...?
According the Boeing states 2019 they still have 93 NG to deliver .
Re Garuda type change story , well the immediate aircraft to order next after the Max is the 787 . quite a big jump., and I guess the 787 order book is filled up for the next 5 years as well .Plus Garuda and Lion use their 73s mostly domestically , most or relatively short routes, not exactly made for a long range 787. So I do really not buy the "swap" story.

[AviatorDave]

According the Boeing states 2019 they still have 93 NG to deliver .
Re Garuda type change story , well the immediate aircraft to order next after the Max is the 787 . quite a big jump., and I guess the 787 order book is filled up for the next 5 years as well .Plus Garuda and Lion use their 73s mostly domestically , most or relatively short routes, not exactly made for a long range 787. So I do really not buy the "swap" story.

They might convert the MAX orders into some of Boeing‘s long haul aircraft to salvage their payments, and still fill the gap in the short/med haul sector by leasing or otherwise getting used Airbus aircraft.

[Mike Flynn]

As a retired Reuters journalist (and pilot) in my opinion this story is much more complex.

The general opinion appears to be that Boeing tried to catch up with Airbus by modifying a 50 year old design with bolt on technology and computer software. This meant no new costly FAA paperwork to sign off .

Added to this scenario was the fact the US government effectively allowed Boeing carte blanche certification.

Boeing are now in a very serious legal and sales situation.

Clearly the airlines with expensive grounded aircraft are going to be talking recompense and lawyers shortly.

Added to this is the issue that Boeing face with public trust in their aircraft.

Meanwhile Airbus sales teams are going to milk this for what it is worth.

[Deaf]

The other issue which doesn't appear to be reported on is the the overall effect on the US trade deficit and the US/China trade talks idea of China buying more 737's

[lomapaseo]

..... Meanwhile Airbus sales teams are going to milk this for what it is worth.

How so?

It's not like they have lots of product sitting on a shelf in their store

and it's never good to bad mouth the other guy when you have your own problems not yet visible

[Mike Flynn]

How so?

It's not like they have lots of product sitting on a shelf in their store

and it's never good to bad mouth the other guy when you have your own problems not yet visible

Well I see you are in Florida and I am here in South East Asia.

Low cost operators are in a cut throat business in this part of the world.

Air Asia is one of the fastest growing among the loco’s and they are major Airbus buyers while Lionair are operating a mixed fleet.

It appears Lionair will cancel Boeing next followed by a raft of other buyers.

Vietjet and others are sitting on easily cancelled orders.

As for the 737 Max I imagine that Boeing will take a big financial hit trying to shift what is now a maligned aircraft.

As for your suggestion ‘it’s never good to bad mouth the other guy’ sadly that is what salespeople do all the time.

The bottom line here is that Boeing have been caught out by Airbus technology and in trying to catch up they have re engineered the Model T Ford.

The Chinese have got the Comac C919 which will be serious competition for the 727 Max.

Never dismiss Chinese technology. I have spent a large amount of time here over the last 20 years.

[Chas2019]

Strictly speaking, Garuda have requested cancellation. I very much doubt they can simply walk away from their order.

Garuda have also been at pains to state that they're not necessarily binning Boeing and may look at taking a different 737 variant.

But the negative impression of Boeing is sure to follow in the minds of airline operators. I am sure Airbus will see an upsurge of orders as loyal customers abandon Boeing. The whole affair makes me think companies are going back to their old ways...taking no responsibility and covering up problems. Too bad they have destroyed their hard won good will with the flying public. Maybe the CEO should resign as he seems to be a goofball at best.

[Hotel Tango]

I'm looking forward to the 727 Max ;)

[A and C]

Mike flynn

once Boeing have a fix for this problem and the aircraft is back in service the general public will soon forget and the 737 will march on for another forty years.

[speedrestriction]

I can see a rebranding exercise in the not too distant future.

[Chas2019]

The culture at Boeing has changed for the worse and probably more of this will show up in the future. They got caught this time but what else has been swept under the carpet?

[pax2908]

Maybe the 737 can be 'fixed', what about the certification process in general ?

[ATC Watcher]

once Boeing have a fix for this problem and the aircraft is back in service the general public will soon forget and the 737 will march on for another forty years.

Not so sure of that , as this reminds me of the DC10 days for those here old enough to remember. . When late night shows start to make jokes about it and question its ability to fly , the general public starts to be aware of the problems and vote with its feet.
Maybe the news cycle in 2019 is much shorter than it was in the 1970s, and you are right, people may forget soon , but I can see , just like the DC10, the Max effectively being restricted to the US market and a few exotic users, while a re branded version will be pushed up ( e.g. the MD-11) .

In addition to this, I was just watching CNN where the CEO of Ethiopian was interviewed by Richard Quest , and he declared that he lost confidence in Boeing and cancellation of its Max orders were being looked at.

[FRogge]

I'm not really old enough to remember myself, but I guess it wasn't really smooth sailing for Airbus either in the beginning with theire FBW systems. But I agree it's like comparing apples with oranges, since A320 was state of the art technology back then. But in today's world people forget these kind of things quite quickly.

[Rated De]

Maybe the 737 can be 'fixed', what about the certification process in general ?

precisely.

The 737 MAX is the symptom.
The root cause is systemic failure.
Normalisation of Deviance.

[armchairpilot94116]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/indonesias-garuda-airlines-cancels-order-for-49-boeing-737-max-jets/2019/03/22/d7f7de52-4c63-11e9-9663-00ac73f49662_story.html

Lion cancels its orders as well as reported on the radio after Garuda cancels.

Big trouble brewing for Boeing . If the entire max orders get cancelled worldwide it would be the end of the 737 and put Boeing on the govt bail out

[neville_nobody]

The 737 MAX is the symptom.
The root cause is systemic failure.
Normalisation of Deviance.

The root cause believe it or not was the 787. Boeing admitted that they should have just built the whole thing in house and got it right the first time. Instead they outsourced it had a laundry list of problems which flowed into production delays.

Plan A was to make the 737 Max a new design using 787 technology but that became so delayed they were then forced to cobble the 737 back together with even bigger engines to be able to compete with the A320 and now here we are with a looming disaster. Even if the Max gets going again there might be so much negative publicity that people refuse to fly on it. That will be Boeing's and the Airlines worst nightmare.

[CurtainTwitcher]

The root cause believe it or not was the 787. Boeing admitted that they should have just built the whole thing in house and got it right the first time. Instead they outsourced it had a laundry list of problems which flowed into production delays.

Plan A was to make the 737 Max a new design using 787 technology but that became so delayed they were then forced to cobble the 737 back together with even bigger engines to be able to compete with the A320 and now here we are with a looming disaster. Even if the Max gets going again there might be so much negative publicity that people refuse to fly on it. That will be Boeing's and the Airlines worst nightmare.





In doing so, they are likely have already pushed airlines into the arms of Airbus. Think about it, this iteration of the 737 is the airframe is maxed out (no pun intended). There is unlikely to be another 737 generation of commonality for airlines. They are going to have to bite the bullet with pilot training, either way with the next narrow body Boeing 7x7 or an Airbus product. Why take a risk on the 7x7 when there is a good airframe today, that still has the ability to grow into the future with minimal CCQ costs?

Airbus looks to have made far sighted design decisions with the A32x family.

[BluSdUp]

Not to mention that Airbus have the A220 separate type mind u
Then A319 A 320 A 321 A 320Neo A 321 Neo + LR A330 A 330Neo and finally the Boeing killer the A350 in 2 or 3 versions.
Nobrainer for new orders:
Drop Boeing

[Sailvi767]

A billion-pound order. How many to follow ?

They were considering canceling the order prior to the max issues.

[JLWSanDiego]

"Meanwhile Airbus sales teams are going to milk this for what it is worth."

I don't think they will have to try at all.
I am sure there are those that will welcome the availability of production slots freed up by canceling these orders

[EIFFS]

Well most on here I guess haven’t flown the MAX, all I can say is that having got 300+ hours on the MAX it’s a lovely bit of kit to fly, or was!!

First of let let me say that in light of the Ethiopian crash grounding was a no brainier, I’ve heard people say ah well it’s Indonesian or Africain pilots, but there’s the rub, aircraft are sold all over the world and should be fairly idiot proof, that’s not to suggest that the pilots involved were idiots, anyone who has flown the 738 is well aware that the STS involves lots of trim changes to match the Stab to the speed at lower speeds and weights, we are all used to the trim wheel wizzing back an forth, so we don’t immediately go “ah stab runaway” and flick the cut out switches.

So for Boeing to bolt on a sub system onto the STS and not tell us about it is probably criminal, yes flicking the switches will sort it but STAB Runaway you expect continous triming, not triming in fits and starts because that’s normal at lower speeds.

Turning to the way forward I have no doubt that Boeing will resolve this problem, yes maybe a rebrand of sorts, of course were there to be a further airframe loss even if unrelated that would spell serious trouble for airlines flying the max.

I expect it will be back flying in 2-3 weeks give or take, how long it will take the passenger to return is open to speculation.

[er340790]

Well, in my jaundiced view, I would almost put money on the 'Max' name being quietly dropped in the months ahead and some such nomenclature as the 737-8000 / 9000 etc etc etc appearing in its stead. :oh:

[Mike Flynn]

What happens to the grounded aircraft that are leased?
Can the airlines dump the problem on the lessor?

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/941x841/image_d3728a90628c9e4079450a7807629531f75819ef.jpeg



It will be interesting to see how this week pans out.

Viet Jet is waiting for the results of the investigation.

The Asian carrier, which has 200 737 Max planes on order valued at about $25 billion before standard discounts, says it will decide on future plans (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/terminal/POAF9Y6TTDS6) for the aircraft after aviation officials finish their investigation and issue a conclusion on incident.

“Vietjet has well managed our fleet so far and our transport business plans are unchanged.”


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-12/repercussions-spread-as-singapore-australia-act-boeing-update