BREAKING NEWS: airliner missing within Egyptian FIR

[wilyflier]

[QUOTE=Bertie Bonkers;9170935]For me, that.[/QUOT

Is the jackscrew holding leading edge UP?, or DOWN? in 400 knot cruise??
Then, not a runaway, but a complete failure (ie disconnect of HS ) could let leading edge go beyond any stops to practically 90 degrees......
instant departure of HS and all that follows...?.

[22/04]

So if we focus on the events as we know them.

What initial event could have ejected the young child and taken out the CVR and FDR.

We I think here highly suspect failure in the HS/VS area but still need evidence whether this was device mediated or structural failure. I am still drawn to the discoloration around the base of the fin. Not deicing fluid for sure unless anyone can show me similar on an Aeroflot aeroplane for example

HMG now out on a limb- even our greatest ally is leaving DC there.

This is a fascinating but tragic tale.

Can I also thank our Russian posters for the information stream and say that I am sure I speak for most in the UK when I say that we bear no issues over this whole affair- we are all just keen to know what happened so that the correct action is taken to protect innocent people

[Bertie Bonkers]

Regarding the possibility of both upward & downward deflection of HS -

Again, no idea if this is plausible, but:

HS detaches from jackscrew/jackscrew fails

HS leading edge deflects upward, pushing jackscrew & actuator up into the VS assembly (as seen in photo)

As a result the tail goes up, the nose goes down (bunt?), until HS goes "over the top" (ie past horizontal relative to the airflow) at which point it is slammed down by aerodrag and events proceed as outlined in my previous post.

[FE Hoppy]

Well at least they have a time stamp for the event. This will give a position from which to bind the search and also the ads-b/mode-s data after the event will give some clues.

[Prada]

It would be interesting to know when exactly FDR stops on known flightpath. Before the events FR24 recorded? Exactly at that time?

[thcrozier]

Interesting thought about the videos, OLEOSTRUT. A lot of phones also have accelerometers and gyroscopes in them these days. Not good enough for an INS app yet, but it's in your future. One of the reasons they are inaccurate is because of slow refresh rates, but if you had several of them, maybe the data could be integrated.

http://www.mouser.com/applications/sensor_solutions_mems/

[A0283]

Prada is it possible to post the FR24 data or statements that you are referring to?

What you suggest could lead one to conclude that the power distribution between a. the engines//generators and b. the aft fuselage (read tail and flight recorders) failed first.

And that 26 sec later the power between c. engines/generators and d. avionics bay/MEC failed thereafter.

Which would suggest an 'aft fuselage and/or tail event' first. And subsequent aerodynamic breakup later.

Question then is what is the '26 sec later moment' in sync with ... is that a complete loss of communications ... or loss of SSR data (because of comms failure or dropping below the horizon of the SSR or ADS-B receivers... or hitting the deck)?

+++
Or is it just a 26 sec 'extrapolation' by the FR24 'processors'.
Am going to read the Kommersant article now - thanks @thf.

[CONSO]

I read your post way back in the 900s suggesting something similar - IIRC you suggested the HS deflected leading edge upward into the airflow. To me, the evidence suggests a deflection downward (though possibly both occurred).
My point then was that the HS would have to rotate enough to provide a downward( from level flight aspect ) load to tear the upper fuselage apart starting at the circumferential production joint ( highest stress area ) ahead of the PB. before then breaking off. IF at that time ( milliseconds ? ) one HS broke off slightly before the other, a major side load from the resulting roll and side force on the VS could tear off the aft portion behind the VS front spar.

Hopefully recovery of the jack screw and internal HS structural box will help determine the sequence- and possibly the cause.
:hmm:

[thf]

May we ask the source of this "breaking news"? I'm afraid I don't get "(c) Ъ"

Kommersant (the Financial Times of Russia): «Черный ящик» оказался пустым (http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2847491)

[peabrain]

Most intelligence gathering operations are long term exercises. The UK's various Secret Intelligence Services co-ordinate threat analyses over different timeframes; short term/immediate threats are usually identified as a result of significant activity on nodes of interest (cell phones, emails, skype, tor activity etc).
My wild speculation is that the UK response is based on massive increased node activity in the region leading to perception of a credible threat to leverage on the existing disaster.
Perhaps perversely, I continue to suspect this was not a terrorist act. I don't subscribe to the APB theory (after JAL123 that ain't going to happen again) or most other theories based on prior events (the purpose of accident investigations is to prevent recurrence, unless there's a serious cock up like DC10 cargo doors).
The strongest part of a fuselage is supposedly the bonded/riveted joints around stringers. Skin is designed to rip in the event of overpressure (eg by explosion) whilst structural integrity is maintained.
I just cannot understand the relatively clean unzip along rivet lines at the tail before the PB in front of the leading edge of the VS. This looks like a fatigue fracture, and its location is spot on for an overcompression of the joint following a tail scrape.
Explosive decompression following a rip explains particle velocity dents.
Aft fire damage is more problematic, but the APU fuel line appears to have been severed some way back into the aft cabin (there's a long length of hose still attached), and I can imagine a few sparks flying around from severed electrics.
In my full scenario, the floor structure means the tail does not separate immediately, leading to the relatively slow descent, rapid deceleration, and lowish impact v.

[X-37]

Possible sequence of events...
.
Tail section separates...cause under debate
Rest of aircraft eventually goes into flat spin.
Sheds engines and fuselage aft of wings and lands inverted with little forward speed.
Nose cone separates and remainder of fuselage and wings catch fire.
Wreckage still smouldering a couple of hours later.

[NSEU]

If it's all fly by wire, I'd think you would want the FDRs as physically close the actual data source as possible, not hanging out there at the end of 100 or more feet of cable. Seems like an architectural anachronism.

Which data is most important in accidents? Command data (from flight deck or autopilot?). Actual control surface data from control surfaces? Engine data? Engine command data? Sensor data (The typical aircraft has sensors basically on every part of the fuselage/wings/tail).

Do you design a recording system that is finer tuned to mechanical failure, control data failure, human failure? Specifically, what do you deem anachronistic?

You can please some of the crash investigators all of the time, and all of the crash investigators some of the time, but... ;)

[A0283]

Is quoting Alexander Neradko Head of the RussianFederal Air Transport Agency who appears to have said:

- normal cruise,
- instant event ending all FDR registrations,
- lack of FDR data means that it will take months before any conclusions can be drawn,
- during this time work on extracting information from the CVR will continue,
- and a full scale reconstruction with the plane's wreckage will be made,

(we dont have a transcript op Neradko's statements, and the translation is made using software, so be careful before use),

[jack11111]

As most aviation folk know flight recorders are located in the tail because of the better ride MOST of the time in MOST accidents.


In THIS case there may have been 26 seconds more data if located in the nose.


Can't win them all.

[CONSO]

If it's all fly by wire, I'd think you would want the FDRs as physically close the actual data source as possible, not hanging out there at the end of 100 or more feet of cable. Seems like an architectural anachronism

Most airplanes crash into things [ CFIT and solid clouds ] nose first. Usually the least damaged parts are in the rear. Thus the recorders are placed as close to the back side as possible.:ugh::ugh:

Note the CVR and FDR were found relatively soon.

[A0283]

Nothing wrong with your idea from my point of view.

I ran a project at the end of the 1990s trying to use the cheapest INS we could build (and compare it with some aerospace solutions). One of a number of options we tested used the components from the earliest wireless computer mouses. One thing you need to know is if the data runs over any kind of persistent memory. It has long been common 'state of the art technology' practice to use multiple 'inaccurate sources' and run the data through processors which create 'accurate output'.

As i said before, if you dont get it from (the QAR and maintenance computers, you go to) the FDR/CVR, then on to possible other memory, and finally to the more out of the box and innovative solutions.

[BrandonSoMD]

Is the jackscrew holding leading edge UP?, or DOWN? in 400 knot cruise??

Basic aero: the horizontal stab is an upside down wing, and produces downward force. A lifting body wants to pitch down from its direction of lift. That's why the stab "wing" pushes down on the back, to keep the main wing from pitching down. Since the stab itself is pushing down, it wants to rotate in a direction that would pitch its leading edge up. So the control system must maintain a leading edge down torque on the stab.

In consequence, if the jackscrew failed, the result would be a prompt and very violent nose-down aircraft pitch.

This happened to a Navy A-6 Intruder in 1990 during flight tests; the stab linkage failed at about 400 kt and resulted in an instantaneous -6g pitchover. Capt Hazelrigg was killed in the crash; at 1,500 ft AGL there wasn't time to eject.

[thcrozier]

NSEU:

Thank you for your reply.

All of the data from all of the sources you mention must be consolidated around hubs or maybe a central processor. I'm suggesting the recorders might be better located as physically close to those locations as possible.

I assume, but don't know, that the recorders are located at the ends of long cables back in the tail because back in the days when they were mechanical, it was assumed that location would suffer the least damage in a crash.

Now that they are solid state, the probability of damage to the memory is rapidly diminishing. The preservation problem is almost solved, so it might be time to focus on data input integrity.

[RYFQB]

That dailymail article said something to the effect that the toddler was believed to have been found about 21 miles closer to the airport than the cockpit. Well, the tail came down about a mile before the cockpit, so that leaves 20 miles of flying from toddler to tail. That is about 2,5 minutes of flying, during which FR24 data shows not so much as a hint of anything going on, during which nothing was communicated out of the aircraft, and during which nothing out of the normal was recorded by FDR (if we assume it kept recording up until about when the tail was shredded.) Believable?

[cookie65]

A horrible and sickening thought, the position of the toddlers body could well be a false trail. The sinai and Egypt in general is home to wild cats, foxes, dogs and wolves, the body may well have been moved from its initial position.

[Iceheart]

Interesting thought about the videos, OLEOSTRUT. A lot of phones also have accelerometers and gyroscopes in them these days. Not good enough for an INS app yet, but it's in your future. One of the reasons they are inaccurate is because of slow refresh rates, but if you had several of them, maybe the data could be integrated.

Oh, don't count much on phones' accelerometers and gyros, because, first of all, phones don't have gyros. They do have angular rate sensors which are good enough for gaming use (like controlling something by tilting the phone), but next to useless when trying to determine device's true spatial orientation. Typical drift of such "gyro" is in the range of 0.1-1 degree/second in steady conditions, and much larger in the presence of vibration, shocks etc. They also have very limited measurement range, and any significant shock throws the phone's accelerometer off scale, making any future integration attempts worthless.

Then, to conserve power, these sensors are powered down most of the time, and even when they aren't, their readings aren't typically logged. A phone ain't an FDR, and chances of recovering something of value from it is close to nil, unfortunately.

[CONSO]

What if a fairly small explosive device took out the cables to the recorder and blew a relatively small hole in the skin of the aircraft. Child is sucked through hole.Unless the explosive device cut a major structural member- or control cables, etc, a ' small hole " for example the size of a window or two is not likely to 1) suck out a child ( unless he/she was next to it

2) and is NOT likely to result in a rapid disintegration of the airplane.

In fact air systems for pressurization are designed to accomodate a ' window" blowout, requiring as descent to 10 k ASAP, along with dropping of O2 masks.

Explosive decompression myths re a hole sucking out a person seem to be based on a) plane is like a ballon, it pops b) A james Bond movie where gert frobe ? was sucked out... Neither is true ..

Yes an hawian airline had an explosive decompression in which a whole panel blew out due to corrosion and a flight attendant was sucked out and killed . But even then the plane landed as a ' convertable "

[thcrozier]

Re: Micro gyroscope, accelerometer, gravity sensor, and compass integration

Well Iceheart, you are getting into all the reasons they currently don't work very well, but those will be solved.

Recent cell phones do indeed have gyroscopes. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vibrating_structure_gyroscope

As far as the power problem, my iPhone 6 records every movement I make whenever it's in my pocket. In fact I wish I could figure out how to stop it! ;)

Did you read the article I attached to my post?

[Prada]

A0283,
Prada is it possible to post the FR24 data or statements that you are referring to?

I was going through FR24 data once again. Look here:
Crash of Metrojet Flight 7K9268 | Flightradar24 Blog (http://www.flightradar24.com/blog/crash-of-metrojet-flight-7k9268/)

It looks like after initial event plane lost yaw control. - tail fin was lost or gaping hole created in fuselage creating non symmetric drag, or both
with plane loosing yaw control, static ports might become not as static as required for correct flight level indication. Due to abnormal attitude against airflow.

I wonder which ADIRU data was fed to ADS-B? Captain side? Then we can tell yaw attitude via abrupt flightlevel changes. Compared to GPS data.

http://www.keri.ee/crash/adiru.png

[wilyflier]

A horrible and sickening thought, the position of the toddlers body could well be a false trail. The sinai and Egypt in general is home to wild cats, foxes, dogs and wolves, the body may well have been moved from its initial position.

This is about distance travelled after event .Variously reported as 15km/25miles.
Tracking data unreliable but included 80 knots G.Spd
at that speed vertically perhaps several minutes to reach ground.
horizontal speed decaying from 400knots .
Lockerbie 747 covered 40 plus miles
We really want to see the distance last smooth tracking ground position from final ground position, and search that far back

[oleostrut]

"A horrible and sickening thought, the position of the toddlers body could well be a false trail. The sinai and Egypt in general is home to wild cats, foxes, dogs and wolves, the body may well have been moved from its initial position."

A mile, maybe. 20 miles? I do not think this is a consideration.

[FE Hoppy]

There is enough data from ADS-B to calculate backwards from the crash sight.

[PersonFromPorlock]

Isn't the obvious solution to the problem of recorder survival installing redundant recorders in different locations? The things can't be that expensive. What am I missing here?

[short bus]

That dailymail article said something to the effect that the toddler was believed to have been found about 21 miles closer to the airport than the cockpit. Well, the tail came down about a mile before the cockpit, so that leaves 20 miles of flying from toddler to tail. That is about 2,5 minutes of flying, during which FR24 data shows not so much as a hint of anything going on, during which nothing was communicated out of the aircraft, and during which nothing out of the normal was recorded by FDR (if we assume it kept recording up until about when the tail was shredded.) Believable?

I imagine whatever caused a hole large enough to eject a passenger, was violent enough to sever the cables to this FDR/CVR at the same time.

There is an elephant in the room though - the grainy video purporting to show a bombing. The video appears to show an explosion at the rear of the a/c, trails thick black smoke, but continues to fly. If the toddler was ejected at that point 20 miles seems about right.

[Mr Optimistic]

Well I am puzzled. All the talk of a violent sudden event but the debris field is very large. The fwd part of the structure came down intact at zero forward speed. If a sudden manoeuvre caused high drag to bleed off the speed, why did it happen so long after the first event (judged by the position of the first debris on the ground along the flight path) ?

[FE Hoppy]

E-Jets have two. One on the front and one in the back.

[RYFQB]

I imagine whatever caused a hole large enough to eject a passenger, was violent enough to sever the cables to this FDR/CVR at the same time.
Yes, but would the aircraft keep going like nothing had happened, for another 2+ minutes after such an event?

[thcrozier]

MrOptimistic:

Read the CAB Report of the Continental 707 crash in 1962. It's only 8 pages and the physics are very similar.

http://murderpedia.org/male.D/images/doty_thomas/ws.pdf

[peabrain]

NSEU:

All of the data from all of the sources you mention must be consolidated around hubs or maybe a central processor. I'm suggesting the recorders might be better located as physically close to those locations as possible.

I assume, but don't know, that the recorders are located at the ends of long cables back in the tail because back in the days when they were mechanical, it was assumed that location would suffer the least damage in a crash.

Now that they are solid state, the probability of damage to the memory is rapidly diminishing. The preservation problem is almost solved, so it might be time to focus on data input integrity.

There is a very simple solution, prevalent in all other aspects of aircraft design, called "redundancy". In other words have duplicate boxes at different locations on the aircraft; this would also significantly reduce the risk of bad data (several instances of n/s DFDRs for numerous flights before incident investigated), risk of damage (eg non-impact fire), and potential for recovery (2 pingers?)

BUT - media presents "Black boxes" as the solution to all incidents. In reality, a DFDR shows what happened if the instruments providing that data were accurate, and the CVR might show why it happened if there are relevant noises/alarms and communications between the crew other than WTF

It's the tin kickers who improve safety by finding out the normal multiple chain of unfortunate circumstances that lead to an accident. The DFDR and CVR are cryptic crossword clues that can point them in the right direction.

In the event of a catastrophic airframe breakup, the evidence is down to the metallurgists/pathologists etc. No amount of live or recorded data will ever really change that.

[HarryMann]

As most aviation folk know flight recorders are located in the tail because of the better ride MOST of the time in MOST accidents.


In THIS case there may have been 26 seconds more data if located in the nose.


Can't win them all.

But what would it have told you then anyway... history of a falling leaf but not the reason maybe ?

[thcrozier]

26 seconds is a long time.

[wilyflier]

Yes, but would the aircraft keep going like nothing had happened, for another 2+ minutes after such an event?

Took that long for a loose back end beginning to flutter and eventually tear screw jack loose, then flip flap

I thought I saw something in a news picture looked like the starboard H.S
sticking up out of a mess of wreckage ie not alone but i cant find it again

[cookie65]

This is about distance travelled after event .Variously reported as 15km/25miles.
Tracking data unreliable but included 80 knots G.Spd
at that speed vertically perhaps several minutes to reach ground.
horizontal speed decaying from 400knots .
Lockerbie 747 covered 40 plus miles
We really want to see the distance last smooth tracking ground position from final ground position, and search that far back

So one object (sorry for the insensitive term) defies the laws of momentum and falls vertically, yet the remaining thousands of pieces of various sizes and density describe a predictable parabola ?

[short bus]

Yes, but would the aircraft keep going like nothing had happened, for another 2+ minutes after such an event?

I wouldn't think it was business as usual...
Could communications have been damaged as well? Hypoxia/smoke inhalation rendering try the crew incapacitated?
It could fly relativley level while shedding pieces until a large enough piece sheared off and flew back taking out the HS.

[HarryMann]

Yes, but would the aircraft keep going like nothing had happened, for another 2+ minutes after such an event?

Yes, indeed so... as others are saying with a severely weakened area possibly leading to flutter of the whole empennage. Dare I suggest the circumferential tear forward of the RPB was the end result...
..all the while with nothing going to the FDR /CVR combo.

Those asking for accurate cross-referenced timelines are on it I'd say...

A tragic and horrific event I am sure.. very similar in outcomes to MH17 over Ukraine and Pan Am Lockerbie.

[short bus]

Presumably authorities have looked at any EXIF data that may be present on that video. This can be edited of course, and so could be faked. But I am sure it has been looked at.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U8-5lo191p8

The footage seems to show 2 different videos. Obviously hand held and long range. But the 2 segments show different patterns of hand shudder.

Why would two people have been independently recording the same event? And how would two independent recordings quickly be combined and released to the world?

Too much of a coincidence I suspect.

Why two independent cameras? Maybe because it was planned and they perps placed a number of people around the expected flight path with cameras to improve their odds of filming it.

[Control Eng]

I am still interested in what has happened to the Waste Tank?

http://s13.postimg.org/pl6sim8on/A320_Waste_Tank.png

This tank is approx 45cm x 110cm but does not appear to be in the tail section shown in the photos.

The tank is of a wound filament composite construction, so quite robust.

Do any of the tail photos show the waste service panel?

[onetrack]

Lomapaseo: Explosive impacts (missiles, bombs and/or uncontained engine parts) impact at much higher velocities (over a range). Thus these holes often have the presence of cratering (adiabatic shear etc.) and/or multiple dissimilar impacts over an area near the hole.High explosive detonates at around 7000 m/s. An aircraft travelling at 800kmh is doing 222m/s.

Explosive devices are divided into "blast" devices and "shrapnel" devices. The latter is designed to kill extensively in a range of of up to 100 metres or more, from the explosives detonation point.
Bodies end up containing significant amounts of, and discoverable pieces of, metal shrapnel, which can be identified as to their source.
High explosive has to be surrounded by heavy sections of metal to produce shrapnel, that then produces substantial amounts of extremely-high-velocity shrapnel holes in any surface within intended range of the blast.

Metal pieces of aircraft components flying around during the aircrafts destruction at cruise speed are not going to produce the same damage signature as an explosive device containing shrapnel.

A block of simple HE with no heavy metal section containing the explosive, produces only a major overpressure event for often less than 20 metres around the detonation point.
That overpressure event is severe within a few metres of the explosive detonation point. An explosive blast overpressure event, is aided by detonation within a larger "container", such as an aircraft fuselage.
Despite aircraft hulls being designed to shed fuselage skin and to have the frame remain intact, a terrorist just has to get lucky, and have the explosive charge go off within a short distance of a major airframe component to cause immediate and substantial destruction of the hull.
That "luck" can be assisted by careful positioning of an explosive charge, rather than allowing random placement. A charge placed in proximity to an auxiliary fuel tank would produce the terrorists desired result, and terrorists have long ago seen the advantage in utilising rapidly-oxidising aircraft on-board components such as jet fuel, as excellent assisitive devices in reaching their desired aim of major destruction.
A quantity of jet fuel could even have been loaded in the hold as part of the explosive device.
I have carefully examined in slow motion, the clearer video reportedly released by IS (or DAESH), and that video does appear to show a fuel-fed-type explosion, with lots of black smoke, on the lower left about the middle of the fuselage.
I'm now inclined to believe the IS video does show this aircrafts actual destruction. The tail section would likely have been blown upwards and away from the blast, thus no sooting of the tail section components.

Chronos has the most likely destruction scenario outlined in post #1222.

(I am speaking as an ex-military engineer)

[Mr Optimistic]

If there were explosives involved then it is easily detected by chemical traces. If there was energetic fragment events, that will also be known. Since the Russian authorities appear to resent the Intel the UK has, courtesy of the USA no doubt, it would seem the evidence is equivocal. That hole with the hinged leaf shown earlier is a low velocity event, not fragment penetration.

[FDMII]

Isn't the obvious solution to the problem of recorder survival installing redundant recorders in different locations? The things can't be that expensive. What am I missing here?
You're missing the design, certification, rule-making and compliance-by factors, not to mention the retrofit costs. You're also missing the industry lobbying time against such rule-making due expenses inherent in the above. Any such case would require a very clear case for change and there isn't one here.

Even the case for deployable recorders hasn't been made sufficiently to alter regulatory requirements, nor has the case for full-time satellite transmission of all flight data.

[oldoberon]

we have all seen this one many times

http://i68.tinypic.com/20ti1p1.jpg

however just took this from one of the videos I hadn't watched in full, I think it was taken before the one above , it is certainly well before it the posts, what are the green ringed bits, is the one on the left part of screwjack assembly

http://i66.tinypic.com/fjf5dv.jpg

[oleostrut]

"what are the green ringed bits, is the one on the left part of screwjack assembly"

Looks like bits of the APU intake door. View of the planes in the manufacturing bay show the door closed. It mates up with the step/box thing in the tailcone, IMO

[onetrack]

Can anyone familiar with the A321-231 advise whether this particular aircraft was fitted with auxiliary (or additional) centre fuel tanks?
I understand the A321 always has a range problem with long-distance routes, and it appears up to 2 ACT's of 3000L each can be fitted in the forward hold area?
If this is the case with this particular aircraft, then a fuel-fed explosion from the ACT or ACT's, initiated by a small explosive charge located near to them, is increasingly looking like the potential scenario.

[oldoberon]

A0283,


I was going through FR24 data once again. Look here:
Crash of Metrojet Flight 7K9268 | Flightradar24 Blog (http://www.flightradar24.com/blog/crash-of-metrojet-flight-7k9268/)

It looks like after initial event plane lost yaw control. - tail fin was lost or gaping hole created in fuselage creating non symmetric drag, or both
with plane loosing yaw control, static ports might become not as static as required for correct flight level indication. Due to abnormal attitude against airflow.

I wonder which ADIRU data was fed to ADS-B? Captain side? Then we can tell yaw attitude via abrupt flightlevel changes. Compared to GPS data.

http://www.keri.ee/crash/adiru.png

i have extracted these figs from your link in your post

04:13:03 KGL9268 30.157 34.174 30650 296 332 -5696 32000
04:13:08 KGL9268 30.161 34.173 30825 246 351 4544 32000
04:13:11 KGL9268 30.177 34.162 29925 306 325 -6080 32000
04:13:11 KGL9268 30.177 34.162 29925 306 325 -6080 32000
04:13:12 KGL9268 30.179 34.161 29925 184 350 -4352

at 04.13.08 it suddenly changes heading by 19 deg clockwise, 3 sec later it has swung 26 deg back anti clock. and 1 sec later it has swung 25 deg clockwise

If those yaw figures and rates are correct would the VS withstand that?

[onetrack]

Below is an interesting AD from CASA, dated 2001/2002, with regard to faulty A321 ACT electrical bonding with possible resulting electrical discharge.
Kogalymavia Flight 9268 A321-231 is S/N 663. It does appear then, that this aircraft was fitted with at least one ACT.

https://www.comlaw.gov.au/Details/F2006B01855/31e51b65-f50a-4c0c-9295-10b927afc679

[jmmilner]

From the engineering standpoint, setting up the device to detonate remotely on an aircraft at cruise altitude is quite a bit harder than simply setting it on a timer. The easiest way to make a remote detonator is to hook up a mobile phone, and those generally don't work at 30000' and 400 knots. It's possible to cook up a design that involves walkie-talkies or even a dedicated circuit, but that requires a whole different level of engineering expertise. Historically, terrorist groups have been short of engineering talent but that seems to have changed beginning with bin Laden. Today, with the "Maker culture," a device capable of measuring barometric pressure several times a second, to an accuracy of 0.02 hPa, computing the trend line, smoothing the data and applying whatever logic and/or time delay before activating an output can be built with off the shelve parts for under $20. Powered by 2 pen cell batteries, it can run for months and is the size of a deck of cards without the explosive.

With such a device it becomes possible to count aircraft pressurization cycles so one could set the device to wait for the descent prior to landing, wait 30 minutes after reaching maximum cabin altitude, or even delay 5 or 10 flight legs before triggering. The only practical limit is how long the device remains undetected in the aircraft.

Anybody counting on technical complexity to prevent a device being made by terrorists is making a bad bet.

[_Phoenix]

what are the green ringed bits, is the one on the left part of screwjack assembly
Jackscrew looks like this:
https://www.flickr.com/photos/8353822@N02/2147258443

[CONSO]

A little F= ma issue.

1) IF we assume the tail breaking off at frame forward of PB as an initial failure, then that would leave both HS and VS and Rudder plus APU as a unit.

2) IMO- Even IF at 400 plus mph the HS turned flat side to direction of travel, to develop enough force to rip both off at skin line would require a much higher unit mass traveling in the vector direction of travel to provide enough opposing force to break off HS

3) But IF 1) is not true ( meaning breaking off ***after/during *** breaking of HS ), then the mass- momentum of the whole plane forward of the break at the frame ahead of the PB, the resultant mass-momentum would be more than adequate to provide enough reaction/opposing force available to allow the HS to break cleanly at the skin line and the tail parts following a bit later

Keep in mind the time differences involved are very small re cause and effect and what happened first.

That being said- it is MY opinion that the initiating event was the flipping up of the HS- as the result of a) structural failure of jackscrew in some manner and b) reason for failure unknown at this time- but well place explosive is NOT excluded. :hmm:

[sardak]

A photo showing the jackscrew installed is here http://www.pprune.org/9169622-post1004.html

Regarding oldoberon's green circles, the foreground one, and the one I've added, are the mating fittings from the next section aft, containing the APU. They were torn out of that section.
http://i.imgur.com/QbTyyoR.png

The two circled fittings above belong here v

http://i.imgur.com/uQhDPjR.png

I haven't looked enough to figure out what the other green circled object, but it's not the jackscrew or its support.

Nor is this circled one the jackscrew plate on the upper skin, the last picture in post #1180. A higher resolution photo shows it to be part of the VS.
http://i.imgur.com/txJHMoq.png http://i.imgur.com/UrgNF97.png

http://imgur.com/uQhDPjR

http://imgur.com/uQhDPjR

[hamster3null]

With such a device it becomes possible to count aircraft pressurization cycles so one could set the device to wait for the descent prior to landing, wait 30 minutes after reaching maximum cabin altitude, or even delay 5 or 10 flight legs before triggering. The only practical limit is how long the device remains undetected in the aircraft.

Anybody counting on technical complexity to prevent a device being made by terrorists is making a bad bet.

My point is not that technical complexity of such a job is beyond the reach of a modern day terrorist, it's mainly that, in this situation, cooking up functional remote detonation is what Russians call "having sex while standing in a hammock": enduring difficulties for the sake of enduring difficulties. Unless the terrorist group has access to off-the-shelf remote detonators that can work at a range of 10+ km, can punch through the Faraday cage of the fuselage, and can function despite the Doppler shift due to 400 kt speed difference between the transmitter and the receiver, it's hard to see them going to the effort of making one from scratch, when the job can easily be done with a timer.

One other possibility is to make a device that can be accessed remotely via the onboard Wi-Fi, but even that is a challenge.

[SRMman]

My speculation FWIW, if the toddler was indeed found 21 miles from the main crash site, I suppose it's possible that the bomb, or indeed some major structural failure, caused massive but not initially fatal damage, opening the fuselage and disrupting power and/or data connections to the data recorders. The aircraft continued to fly for around 3 minutes, then succumbed to the initial event and broke up.

[Data Guy]

This U.S. AD references a French AD (F-2004-019). There are differences;

1. The French AD was issued 14 months earlier and requires compliance 13 months earlier that the U.S. AD.

2. The French AD is more detailed than the U.S AD which said; “was prompted by a report of an explosion in the APU compartment which blew open the compartment doors …. (and that) “an electric arc at the electrical receptacle, could result in a fire or explosion in the APU compartment during flight”.

3. The French AD added; “The aircraft tail cone structure and the left elevator surface had been damaged” …. (and that) “During flight, such event could lead to the loss of the APU doors in flight and could cause damage to the aircraft, and/or hazard to persons or property on the ground.”


REFERENCES

AD- 2005-06-06. Effective Date; This AD becomes effective April 22, 2005. Compliance By; Within 20 months after the effective date of this AD (Dec 22, 2006).
Unsafe Condition; (d) This AD was prompted by a report of an explosion in the APU compartment which blew open the compartment doors. We are issuing this AD to prevent oil vapor leakage from the APU AC generator, which, when combined with an electric arc at the electrical receptacle, could result in a fire or explosion in the APU compartment during flight.

Modification; (f) Within 20 months after the effective date of this AD, modify the APU AC generator by doing all the actions in accordance with the Accomplishment Instructions of Airbus Service Bulletin A320- 24-1106, Revision 01, dated May 13, 2004.
Related Information; (i) French airworthiness directive F-2004-019, dated February 4, 2004, also addresses the subject of this AD.

AD link > http://www.airweb.faa.gov/Regulatory_and_Guidance_Library/rgad.nsf/0/ebbdfcf90f1708d186256fc800519f60/$FILE/2005-06-06.pdf (http://www.airweb.faa.gov/Regulatory_and_Guidance_Library/rgad.nsf/0/ebbdfcf90f1708d186256fc800519f60/$FILE/2005-06-06.pdf)
-------------------------------
FRENCH AIRWORTHINESS DIRECTIVE F-2004-019.Effective Date; Feb 4, 2004. Compliance by; Before October 30, 2005.

(Ed Notes; Effective date; 14 months earlier. Compliance By date; 13 months earlier than AD-2005—06-06).

“REASONS: One operator reported a blast in the APU compartment during passengers disembarking, that blew open the APU compartment doors.


The aircraft tail cone structure and the left elevator surface had been damaged.


Analyses revealed, that due to vibrations in APU AC generators, the electrical receptacle retaining bolts loosened, leading to oil vapor leakage. This leakage associated with an electrical arc at the level of the electrical receptacle is at the origin of the blast.


During flight, such event could lead to the loss of the APU doors in flight and could cause damage to the aircraft, and/or hazard to persons or property on the ground.

French AD Link > http://www.caa.si/fileadmin/user_upload/pageuploads/AD-NOTE/AD-2004/007_DGAC_F-2004-019_B_.pdf.

[HamishMcBush]

It could be that the toddler was the trained terrorist and planted and set off the bomb, and then became the first victim departing through the freshly-made hole.....


However, BBC is reporting this morning that the bomb was apparently planted in the hold by someone with access to baggage loading. So why now are passengers being banned from taking hold baggage on the plane if the bomb was planted by someone airside who has access to planes? Irrespective of whether or not there is any cargo/luggage to load, if the "airport staff" have unattended access to planes, they could do what they like without question, and the whole passenger/flights inconvenience becomes irrelevant; the plane - any plane - could be targetted by ground crew. It's that side of security that needs to be tightened up further, not what is taken on board legitimately

[RHINO]

I think you will find the following.

The UK Government have gone off on one because they realised the security at SSH was not anywhere near acceptable.

A process is being sorted out that is acceptable to the UK Government. This will take time. Hence hand luggage only to start with. Hold baggage once all issues surrounding it's screening and loading are sorted.

As to the David Cameron 'it was a bomb'

I believe their are two different issues being played out.

The cause of the crash and security at SSH. The first Cameron has no more idea than you and I the second he is to be applauded for.

[sopwithnz]

have no idea what Russian commentary is, but worth a look at 2.51 for high def close- up of inside tail section that has been much discussed ..

also the aerial footage may be clarifying ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hTgEgb0DWpQ

[Discorde]

If it was an explosive device, evidence (chemical or debris characteristics) would have been found very soon after the wreckage was found. So either:

Evidence for an explosive device has already been found but for some reason is being withheld, or

There was no explosive device.

Apologies if this point has already been made.

[oldchina]

It is my understanding the only ones at the coal face are Egypt and accredited representatives from Russia, Ireland, France and Germany with no mention of the UK.

According to the BEA there are 6 Airbus technical advisors on site. They will have seen the evidence close up, not the photos that PPruners are trying to interpret. These Airbus experts are just as likely to be British, Spanish (or German) as French. In the course of their work they are representing the manufacturer, not any particular nation State.

[mitrosft]

additional footage ..
have no idea what Russian commentary is, but worth a look at 2.51 for high def close- up of inside tail section that has been much discussed ..

also the aerial footage may be clarifying ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hTgEgb0DWpQ

Girl claims to be in Russian manned search and rescue party exploring the area. No bodies found in her group, more than one group are around. She also claims that marauders are in area as some of the belongings appears to be searched/emptied already. No more details.

[triumph61]

At First, sorry for my bad English.
This Pics show a Debris Piece that is normaly fittet at Emergency Door 2R.
The burned and heating Marks at the lower Site of the Piece are in opposit to the Fuselage. On the Ground is no burning to see. Clear to see on the first Pic are the dark Marks on the right site. They must be of heating from Inside

http://img5.fotos-hochladen.net/uploads/2rmg2nboj4zs.jpg

http://img5.fotos-hochladen.net/uploads/2r2dabe25xs7t.jpg

http://img5.fotos-hochladen.net/uploads/2r1lioftbwvdr.jpg

This Piece is placed direct under Door 2L. Also lying opposite to Fuselage and Burnmarks below.

http://img5.fotos-hochladen.net/uploads/2l27rsujmkol2.jpg

http://img5.fotos-hochladen.net/uploads/2lupjimzex20.jpg

http://img5.fotos-hochladen.net/uploads/2l178mrvieo2c.jpg

Clear to see, no burning around this two Pieces on the Ground.

The left Engine and Fan

http://img5.fotos-hochladen.net/uploads/triebwerklinks6032btqu9e.jpg

http://img5.fotos-hochladen.net/uploads/fana2euq9ybpj.jpg

Also no burning around both on the Ground. The Fan is lying 20m nearby.
The Engine/Fan must get the Burn Marks in the Air from Outside and is not burning itself.

There must be a great Heat in the Area 2L/2R inside the Cargo. There is no other way to get the Burning heating Marks of the Pieces of 2R-2L.

[AR1]

20 Stirling note and said "if you give me one of these, I will take you past all the queues."
He accepted the offer, they were walked through and their large checked baggage placed on the baggage mover without any form of security check.

Its routine in Egypt (Cairo certainly, I have worked there in the past year) that the local agents, approach westerners (and probably others) and fast-track past the chaos on production of a form 10 (£10). They've NEVER fast tracked me beyond baggage screening. it looks chaotic or dodgy, but in essence it's no different to pre paying for the same facility at Manchester.

[Marodeur]

To think that there is no British presence in the Sinai is both unrealistic and wishful thinking.
The Egyptian President has just visited 10 Downing Street, there are wide ranging newly agreed security measures in place overseen by British personnel, in conjunction with their re-invigorated Egyptian counterparts.
Furthermore - it can safely be assumed that whatever Irish presence there may be in Sinai, those Irish personnel in all probability received their training and knowledge from British (UK based) institutions. Akin to a British presence by extension ....

[CosmoBeauregard]

I see enough similarity between this accident flight (KGL9268) and AirAsia Flight QZ8501 of last year that it’s difficult not to naturally link the two. My initial thoughts of KGL9268 were the virtually the same that I had with QZ8501. Essentially my theory is the Aft Fuselage section of the aircraft along with the Aft Pressure Bulkhead and entire empennage separated from the aircraft. Had this occurred, the differences between a bomb detonation compared to the explosion of an Aft Pressure Bulkhead failing would be very similar as far as damage is concerned. In fact so much so that the only telling tale would be the lack of explosive residue.
I am a recent reluctant convert to the Tail Strike damage or possible Re-damage theory. Why? If you take a straight edge along the bottom of the main tires, allow for strut decompression and finally lay the other edge along the aft lower fuselage you will contact fuselage at the new aft fuselage separation point. QZ8501 had a huge number of great photos of the aft Bulkhead area. Im still convinced the Aft Bulkhead let go on that one as well.

[HarryMann]

There has been a lot of mention in the media about 'UK investigators'. It is my understanding the only ones at the coal face are Egypt and accredited representatives from Russia, Ireland, France and Germany with no mention of the UK.


To me it is not credible that the UK government obtained the information they have and are acting on from internet exchanges or intercepted conversations.


More likely one or many of the investigators from Egypt, Russia, Ireland, France, Germany have made it 'known' that a bomb is the suspected cause rather than remain tight-lipped for official confirmation.

Not what the Daily Telegraph says today... GCHQ intercepted 'chatter' just before as well as after the crash.
To me it is not credible that the UK government obtained the information they have and are acting on from internet exchanges or intercepted conversations.

[silvertate]

A 'small hole' for example the size of a window or two is not likely to suck out a child unless he/she was next to it...


Unless the bomb and the toddler happened to both be in the rear toilet at the time. Which is a likely scenario.


And regard David Cameron going out on a limb with the bomb theory. One suspects that GCHQ has gone back through its records for the region and found some terrorist 'chatter'. (Not all information can be analysed in real time, because they do not have the staff for that, which is why data 'mining' will not effect Joe-public. They don't have the time or resources to read everything.)

But if some relevant 'chatter' had been uncovered, it would negligent to not act upon it, even if it was not actually the cause of this particular accident. So Cameron is between a rock and a hard place - he has to act even when the results of the investigation are not known.

Silver

[WNTT]

The location of the toddlers body confounds any explanation i can think of, being so far away from the wreckage.

FR24 lat long position (which is accurate enough) only shows a deviation from the 340 heading just before the stop of FR24 data / crash.

If the plane suffered any issues resulting a passenger(s) being ejected from the aircraft a few minutes before the 'event' (@04:13) point, there was no change in aircraft behaviour (routing or altitude change) was noted in the FR24 data.

The pilot adage of aviate, navigate, communicate does not seem to have applied before the 'event' (@04:13) if something had occurred (no change in flight parameters, no change in direction to get to a near air strip, no communication).

This i find unlikely, so i feel that everything was normal prior to the 'event' (@04:13).

BUT..... how does a body (maybe others) come to be found 20 miles down the flight path from the crash site whatever the cause of the event?

[Prada]

have no idea what Russian commentary is, but worth a look at 2.51 for high def close- up of inside tail section that has been much discussed ..

also the aerial footage may be clarifying ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hTgEgb0DWpQ

Nothing much interesting said.
Complained about hot climate, looting of valuables, and passengers phone found. Also egyptian military and authorities to be cooperative.

[Kulverstukas]

ISIS phone convresation "intercept" combined with "Cameron refused to give intelligence info to Putin" in last phone conversation brings some throughts (about intercept of course)

[RYFQB]

BUT..... how does a body (maybe others) come to be found 20 miles down the flight path from the crash site whatever the cause of the event?
Well, what is the source for this piece of information, I wonder... When I googled it earlier, the oldest hit I got was that daily mail article, which didn't mention as much as an anonymous source, as far as I could see.

[Easy Street]

Since the Russian authorities appear to resent the Intel the UK has, courtesy of the USA no doubt, it would seem the evidence is equivocal.

No need to be so snide about the UK - it does actually contribute something into the intelligence relationship from time to time! In this particular case I suspect that its listening post on Cyprus may have had something to do with it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ayios_Nikolaos_Station

[WNTT]

Well, what is the source for this piece of information, I wonder... When I googled it earlier, the oldest hit I got was that daily mail article, which didn't mention as much as an anonymous source, as far as I could see.

i first heard about it from RT.com updates at 13:35 GMT 05/11/15 (https://www.rt.com/news/320225-plane-crash-russian-egypt/)

13:35 GMT
The body of 10-month-old girl Darina Gromova, who became the symbol of the fatal A321 plane crash in Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, has been discovered by rescue teams, TASS news agency has reported.

"Now she is being taken to Cairo, from there she will be sent to St. Petersburg to be identified by the relatives," the head of Russian Emergencies Ministry's operation headquarters in Egypt, Vladimir Svetelsky, said.

so it seems to have come a fairly direct source rather than a Egyptian 'close to the investigation'. No mention of distance was given but as she was only found yesterday it struck me she was in an extended search area so some distance from the main crash site.

[dsc810]

Meanwhile at the airport and according to the Telegraph (and now the BBC as well)
The Egyptians are being awkward about letting the rescue planes leave and have cancelled them.

The DT also reports now that the CVR also just stops - and gives a link to a russian language news source.
Russian plane crash: Chaos as rescue flights are cancelled by Egyptian authorities leaving British tourists stranded - latest news - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/11978962/Russian-plane-crash-sharm-el-sheikh-stranded-British-tourists-latest-updates.html)

[StopDropRoll]

@triumph61 (http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/569907-breaking-news-airliner-missing-within-egyptian-fir-68.html#post9171378)

This Pics show a Debris Piece that is normaly fittet at Emergency Door 2R.
The burned and heating Marks at the lower Site of the Piece are in opposit to the Fuselage. On the Ground is no burning to see. Clear to see on the first Pic are the dark Marks on the right site. They must be of heating from Inside


Please note Metrojet paints the bottom of the a/c fuselage dark grey, what you interpret as burn and heating marks may just be part of the livery. Life of an Airbus A321 - Album on Imgur (http://imgur.com/gallery/bxkud)

http://i.imgur.com/LSUS2Xu.jpg

[RYFQB]

Thanks, WNTT. At that time the area searched would have been 33 or 40 square kilometers, if I'm reading the TASS (http://tass.ru/en/politics/834044) right. Probably not a square, but if it was, that's about 6 by 6 kilometers.

[Prada]

Eternal NYC writes:

All this talk about possible jackscrew failures, RPB blowouts, etc are really missing the point here.

You realize that world intelligence services are admitting they are now getting evidence that this was a bomb?

You realize that's why all these airlines are not allowing luggage in the hold?

You realize that ISIS claimed responsibility for this immediately after it happened, from a wing that has not released any false information in the past?

So you think we are wasting time here, and we should jump to "obvious" conclusions?
Do you remember how "obvious" it was for TWA800 that it was hit by rocket?
Instead it was much less exciting explosion in empty fuel tank.

Here we enjoy putting together a puzzle from scarce facts. The last piece in the puzzle would be event that caused catastrophe. Not the first.
We try to understand how known facts can be put together without contradictions, eliminating theories how and when things happened.

So far we know:
Initial event severed cables to FDR and probably to CVR.
However ADS-B remained functional for about 26 seconds after flight became unstable. Initial event might have happened much before flight became unstable. (toddler position) There was a lot of yawing and unstable descent, after flight became unstable. Loss of tail fin? Horizontal speed was quickly lost at the end of these 26 seconds. During that time plane travelled about 5km. There was a headwind about 27m/s.
There was a fire inside that scorched rear fuselage seats and occupants according to autopsies.

It could be, that initial event happened before flight became unstable. toddler location hints that it happened some 1 minute 30 seconds before flight became unstable. But we have little facts. We need to know when exactly FDR stopped and put that time on known flight path. We need to know what parts were found around toddler.

[Non-Driver]

All UK inbound flights to SSH being prevented according to BBC

Easyjet Egypt rescue flights 'halted' - BBC News (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34743388)

[Cazalet33]

http://s9.postimg.org/mpm4a9glb/backpax.jpg

[RTM Boy]

The decision by the UK, Ireland and the Netherlands to abruptly suspend flight to/from SSH cannot have been based just on 'chatter' evidence - there must have been something more specific, more substantial.

And now it appears that Egyptian authorities are preventing the arrival/departure of easyJet planes not already at SSH.

EasyJet says Egyptian authorities suspend some British flights | Reuters (http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/11/06/uk-egypt-crash-britain-flights-idUKKCN0SV17Y20151106)

The BBC news just now reports easyJet saying all British airlines are being prevented from using SSH by the Egyptian authorities.

Is this some sort of Egyptian retaliation - preventing UK holiday makers from leaving?

[maliyahsdad2]

I saw that and thought the same Cazalet33 - This is stupidity at any airport but to allow it at SSH in the current climate beggars belief.

[dbuckley]

Long time lurker, occasional SLF, and someone who knows a bit about electronics here, Prada, commenting to Kulverstukas noted:

To my knowledge there is no battery backup for CVR or FDR. It is a long debated issue. Power gone - recording stops. In most cases it means that for pilots there is nothing much to save anymore.I think this is not quite true. Modern flight recorders use solid state memory to store data, and the memory chips and associated gubbins will operate from a power supply of 5V or 3.3V. The supply to the recorders from the plane will be either 28VDC or 115AC, so there is a power conversion unit within the recorder. Once the power input stops, there will be a brief period of time during which the recorder electronics will continue to operate, as there are capacitors in the power supply that store charge. It's unlikely to be several seconds, more likely a second or two tops. It may even be necessary for the device to clean up the end of the recording, the equivalent to closing a file on a computer, a process that is initiated by the failure of the power supply.

The other interesting thing is, as I understand it, that the data to the recorder arrives over a bus, upon which many data values are multiplexed. Thus if the bus is severed, all data values from the bus are lost.

This all means that when examining the recording in this supply and/or data lost scenario, there are a number of possibilities.

If the power fails and the data is still available, then data will be recorded right to the bitter end of the recording. The recorder may even record that it has lost power. Or, if the power is on and the data fails, then that failure should be on the recording with nothing after. Or if both power and data fail simultaneously, then to the recorder that is the same as the first scenario, the recorder is still working for a short time, but there is no data input to record.

Thus even though there is no data that is helpful in understanding the flight parameters at the time of the incident, there is a little bit of info as to how the recorder became separated from its data and power, from which it may be possible to make a judgement call as to how the flight recorders separated from the rest of the plane.

There is an assumption here that the recorder remains physically intact through the above failure modes; if the memory container becomes separated from the electronics container then of course recording just stops.

[NiclasB]

Re the position of the toddler and "defying the laws of momentum" (post #1300), how about the following scenario: HS breaks loose (for whatever reason), nose bunts down, tail and part of rear fuselage shears off. Now the rear of the fuselage is open and it is spinning about its transverse axis. Could the rotation rates be such that a free object (such as an infant) could be catapulted upwards (at the initiation of the event) or downwards (after half a revolution) PLUS a rearward component that would effectively null the forward momentum of the aircraft? In that case there is nothing strange with an object falling straight down.

However, Mr. Occam is frowning at me right now...

And as a father it breaks my heart at the image of a parent seeing his/her toddler disappear into the void. Luckily, they would not have suffered long... RIP.

[Pontius Navigator]

The decision by the UK, Ireland and the Netherlands to abruptly suspend flight to/from SSH cannot have been based just on 'chatter' evidence - there must have been something more specific, more substantial.

In today's paper (6 Nov Daily Telegraph) it says that subsequent to the crash intelligence services re-examined the increased chatter post-crash and determined that there was a significant risk.

It then said that this information was not passed directly to all concerned but shared initial with the US and later parts were shared with German and French agencies. The point being to protect systems and sources.

That Russia was not informed should be no surprise. Suggestions that the UK knew in advance is also probably wrong.

[Mark in CA]

Retaliation for the US/UK "it could be a bomb" campaign?

Russia suspends Boeing 737 certification (http://news.yahoo.com/russia-suspends-boeing-737-certification-190746916.html)

[HarryMann]

The decision by the UK, Ireland and the Netherlands to abruptly suspend flight to/from SSH cannot have been based just on 'chatter' evidence - there must have been something more specific, more substantial.

And now it appears that Egyptian authorities are preventing the arrival/departure of easyJet planes not already at SSH.

EasyJet says Egyptian authorities suspend some British flights | Reuters (http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/11/06/uk-egypt-crash-britain-flights-idUKKCN0SV17Y20151106)

The BBC news just now reports easyJet saying all British airlines are being prevented from using SSH by the Egyptian authorities.

Is this some sort of Egyptian retaliation - preventing UK holiday makers from leaving?

Well... I don't doubt chatter played a major part... esp. chatter 'before' the incident that was uncharacteristic.
Then we have the crashed aircraft... the place; the Russian connection; the increasing evidence that little else than an explosion or bomb brought it down... c'mon. Things add up and ISIS sympathiser chatter likely played a major part in decision making.

[Less Hair]

Retaliation of the US/UK "it could be a bomb" campaign?

Not likely. Russia says it's "own" 737 (Ireland and Bermuda registered) can still fly.

[Marodeur]

Assuming the picture is from Sharm and is not some photoshopped image to further drive-up people's blood pressure ...
"Common sense", as per the heading of that post, is of course a disappearing commodity within the human DNA. Many parents these days are not even 'parenting' anymore, clear evidence of the non-existence of common sense amongst many (most) in modern day society.
Can you imagine a kid from an Arab country faffing around with a toy gun at a British airport - ad the reaction? The disrespect this kid and his parents are showing as guests in a foreign country is beyond words.

[Plastic787]

We were "Able to down" is an interesting turn of phrase because it covers all bases, doesn't it? It could even cover an act of God.

I think we all heard "I'm not telling you" in the playground as a child. This is strikingly similar in my opinion. All it is is just psychological warfare from ISIS and doesn't necessarily follow that they had anything to do with it at all.

[Ruimte Aap]

Not trusting the video posted earlier of a burning aeroplane, and reading someone’s claim it to be an old video of 2003 anyway, I searched for proof only to find this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Airlines_Flight_611 link.
It seems remaining damage from a badly repaired tail strike can cause a similar situation, even after many years.

[Basil]

Cazalet33, re the kid's little automatic, about 35 years ago a toy muzzle loading pistol was taken from our elder son by security at a US airport.
They kindly gave it to the captain who returned it on arrival.
S1 thought it was great as it gave street cred to his gun.

As you say, wouldn't carry one of those around now.

[lowca]

Something definitely does not sum up.

Girl's body found 20 miles from wreckage. We are assuming she was taken to the aft loo. Or maybe her parents were not sitting 9DEF as in pax list? If I remember, there were free seats here and there? Maybe they exchanged places with some friends?

Anyway, girl's body is found 20 miles from main wreckage.

According to FR24 data, plane lost control and dived almost vertically. Between 'accident' at 4:13 UTC and the actual crash airplane travelled (vs ground) no more then few miles.

Yet some 10-15 miles earlier, there was a hole big enough to allow little girl to fall off the plane. And still hole was so small/untetectable, and structure of plane so complete, that it's flight was undisturbed (as FR24 suggest).

I didn't notice that anybody confirmed the exact timestamp that FDR recordings stop - was it 4:13 UTC (when plane started to behave abnormally) ? Or was it earlier?

If FDR stops at the same moment as FR24 data shows incident, then we have 'all is OK' from FDR till the end. So I cannot imagine any way that girl may be ejected out of plane before.

It may mean that FDR stops (how much time?) before FR24 drop. So there has happened something so severe in the aft section, that cut the transmit lines to FDR and CVR, opened hole big enough to force off girl - and still has virtually none impact on plane ability to fly undisturbed, at least for some miles.

I cannot sum this up. :(

[EternalNY1]

"Brought down" is an interesting turn of phrase because it covers all bases, doesn't it? It could even cover an act of God.

The problem is they released this immediately after the incident and this was from a wing of ISIS that only has released information in the past that has been verified as being true.

Also, all this confirmation from governments saying they overhead "chatter" and were warning other countries lends credibility to this.

[oleostrut]

This is the kind of damage from a tailstrike. Not the same airplane, but supposedly same model


http://oi67.tinypic.com/5nn8yt.jpg

[StickMonkey3]

"brought down" is just an attempt to garner publicity among the faithful.
If they'd really done it, they would be clear on how they'd downed it.

[Pontius Navigator]

Just seen on BBC News two women go through security at SSH. First was freaked while still wearing a jacket. Second, carrying a babe wrapped in blanket also searched but no attempt to examine blanket.

Saw security man "watching" luggage scanner. He was sitting well back and reclining back as well, model of an alert guard.

[Kulverstukas]

"The problem is they released this immediately after the incident "

At the second day is immediate?

[edmundronald]

With a lead article on CNN reporting a "consensus about a bomb in the hold", it seems that there is a political will to use the unfortunate deceased in this crash to make Putin domestically pay the price of his intervention in Syria, and give ISIL ideas, if they don't yet have them. "Chatter" is now presented as proof. It's the old story of "we know, but we cannot tell you because the proof needs to be kept secret..."

Emerging consensus: bomb in hold downed Russian plane - CNN.com (http://edition.cnn.com/2015/11/06/middleeast/russian-plane-crash-egypt-sinai/index.html)

As for me, I'm just a humble engineer SLF, and I will be avoiding antique cycle-fatigued A321 airframes in the future, especially those which might have seen unreported tailstrikes and heavy landings. I hope someone will be smart enough to get an inspection régime going. One set of corpses is more than enough.

Edmund

[funfly]

this website is populated by idiots
Why do some posters have to say things like this about other people?
I think you will find that virtually all the posts (after moderation) are quite interesting and most of us are intelligent enough to make our own minds up.
A thread of this importance is bound to attract those who may not be 'professional' pilots but most will have some sort of interest and involvement in flying - and often different viewpoints.
I do think the mods do a good job in threads like this so I suggest all of us interested enough to contribute to this thread carry on and ignore derogatory remarks by some who think only they have the right to post.

[Pontius Navigator]

With a lead article on CNN reporting a "consensus about a bomb in the hold", it seems that there is a political will to use the unfortunate deceased in this crash to make Putin domestically pay the price of his intervention in Syria, and give ISIL ideas, if they don't yet have them. "Chatter" is now presented as proof.
Edmund

All the CNN article does is repeats the BBC. It is a media self-confirming merry go round with ever more credible news agencies repeating the original report thus lending authority to the original report. The original source remains UK communications monitoring.

While accepting the validity of this single source there has yet to be discovery of physical confirmation AFAIK.

PS

Latest hardening of cause is "Strong suspicion"

[Blake777]

Very few photos of the seats are available, with good reason. No doubt many are burnt/destroyed, or in distressing condition. However, there are a few around.

I am posting the pic below, reported to be from the cabin rear. Please note that out of respect I have changed the colouring to black and white, which makes it harder to study.

There are definite shrapnel holes passing through the seat on the right of the picture. I will leave you all to surmise whether from front, back, or both directions - my observation is that at least some have gone through from the rear of the seat. This backs up reports that passengers to the rear of the cabin were "peppered with shrapnel".

Proof of nothing on its own as this may have resulted from either disintegration of the airframe or from explosive device. The salient point is that investigators will no doubt have many more seats for examination which will assist with pointing to an explosive device or otherwise. Most of the seats have been unavailable to the press to photograph. On top of any other evidence, this, along with the condition of those autopsied, combines with the airframe damage and any terrorist communication chatter picked up to suggest that the cause is no doubt reasonably clear to investigators already.

I therefore view the apparent "hysteria" over flights over Sinai and transport of luggage or passengers in and out of Sharm as well founded. Still only "looks like a duck", and obviously my opinion only.

https://flic.kr/ps/35XV77
https://flic.kr/ps/35XV77

[WNTT]

Very few photos of the seats are available, with good reason. No doubt many are burnt/destroyed, or in distressing condition. However, there are a few around.

quite a few close ups of seats towards the end of the video here;

https://youtu.be/yQCVLAlkYVE

it seems that there is limited shrapnel or burn damage to them (not sure where they came from in the plane), the most striking thing is that these seats seem to be in the middle of nowhere and spread out like the plane was shedding them over time.

What is the latest on the size/extent of the debris field if any, and locations of key items? (VS, HS)

[flightradar]

I can see 3 Monarch flights heading towards SSH at the moment on FL24. Presumably they are empty and are going take pax back?

4 now... they are avoiding Siani and heading in via Cairo.

Strangley, SSH arrivals does not list these aircraft...

SSH ARRIVALS Date: Fri 06-Nov-2015 Time Period:
Departures Arrivals Airport: (SSH (http://www.flightstats.co.uk/Airport/airportDetails.do?airportCode=SSH&utm_source=c228b59beca1b817:-5bcea562:10fe9d10742:2a1e&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=weblet)) Sharm El Sheikh Airport Sharm el Sheikh, EG Flight Carrier Origin Arrival Status GM* 3100 (http://www.flightstats.co.uk/FlightStatus/flightStatusByFlight.do?id=624494988&airlineCode=GM*&flightNumber=3100&utm_source=c228b59beca1b817:-5bcea562:10fe9d10742:2a1e&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=weblet) Germania Flug (ZRH (http://www.flightstats.co.uk/Airport/airportDetails.do?airportCode=ZRH&utm_source=c228b59beca1b817:-5bcea562:10fe9d10742:2a1e&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=weblet)) Zurich 12:10 PM Cancelled (http://www.flightstats.co.uk/FlightStatus/flightStatusByFlight.do?id=624494988&airlineCode=GM*&flightNumber=3100&utm_source=c228b59beca1b817:-5bcea562:10fe9d10742:2a1e&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=weblet) RJ 6307 (http://www.flightstats.co.uk/FlightStatus/flightStatusByFlight.do?id=624401053&airlineCode=RJ&flightNumber=6307&utm_source=c228b59beca1b817:-5bcea562:10fe9d10742:2a1e&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=weblet) Royal Jordanian (AMM (http://www.flightstats.co.uk/Airport/airportDetails.do?airportCode=AMM&utm_source=c228b59beca1b817:-5bcea562:10fe9d10742:2a1e&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=weblet)) Amman 1:00 PM Scheduled (http://www.flightstats.co.uk/FlightStatus/flightStatusByFlight.do?id=624401053&airlineCode=RJ&flightNumber=6307&utm_source=c228b59beca1b817:-5bcea562:10fe9d10742:2a1e&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=weblet) MS 305 (http://www.flightstats.co.uk/FlightStatus/flightStatusByFlight.do?id=624412308&airlineCode=MS&flightNumber=305&utm_source=c228b59beca1b817:-5bcea562:10fe9d10742:2a1e&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=weblet) EgyptAir (CAI (http://www.flightstats.co.uk/Airport/airportDetails.do?airportCode=CAI&utm_source=c228b59beca1b817:-5bcea562:10fe9d10742:2a1e&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=weblet)) Cairo 1:45 PM Landed (http://www.flightstats.co.uk/FlightStatus/flightStatusByFlight.do?id=624412308&airlineCode=MS&flightNumber=305&utm_source=c228b59beca1b817:-5bcea562:10fe9d10742:2a1e&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=weblet) R2 5902 (http://www.flightstats.co.uk/FlightStatus/flightStatusByFlight.do?id=624424687&airlineCode=R2&flightNumber=5902&utm_source=c228b59beca1b817:-5bcea562:10fe9d10742:2a1e&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=weblet) ORENAIR (DME (http://www.flightstats.co.uk/Airport/airportDetails.do?airportCode=DME&utm_source=c228b59beca1b817:-5bcea562:10fe9d10742:2a1e&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=weblet)) Moscow 2:25 PM En Route (http://www.flightstats.co.uk/FlightStatus/flightStatusByFlight.do?id=624424687&airlineCode=R2&flightNumber=5902&utm_source=c228b59beca1b817:-5bcea562:10fe9d10742:2a1e&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=weblet) R2 5912 (http://www.flightstats.co.uk/FlightStatus/flightStatusByFlight.do?id=624481512&airlineCode=R2&flightNumber=5912&utm_source=c228b59beca1b817:-5bcea562:10fe9d10742:2a1e&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=weblet) ORENAIR (SVO (http://www.flightstats.co.uk/Airport/airportDetails.do?airportCode=SVO&utm_source=c228b59beca1b817:-5bcea562:10fe9d10742:2a1e&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=weblet)) Moscow 2:35 PM En Route (http://www.flightstats.co.uk/FlightStatus/flightStatusByFlight.do?id=624481512&airlineCode=R2&flightNumber=5912&utm_source=c228b59beca1b817:-5bcea562:10fe9d10742:2a1e&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=weblet) MS 307 (http://www.flightstats.co.uk/FlightStatus/flightStatusByFlight.do?id=624412307&airlineCode=MS&flightNumber=307&utm_source=c228b59beca1b817:-5bcea562:10fe9d10742:2a1e&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=weblet) EgyptAir (CAI (http://www.flightstats.co.uk/Airport/airportDetails.do?airportCode=CAI&utm_source=c228b59beca1b817:-5bcea562:10fe9d10742:2a1e&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=weblet)) Cairo 2:45 PM Landed (http://www.flightstats.co.uk/FlightStatus/flightStatusByFlight.do?id=624412307&airlineCode=MS&flightNumber=307&utm_source=c228b59beca1b817:-5bcea562:10fe9d10742:2a1e&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=weblet) DX 480 (http://www.flightstats.co.uk/FlightStatus/flightStatusByFlight.do?id=624418782&airlineCode=DX&flightNumber=480&utm_source=c228b59beca1b817:-5bcea562:10fe9d10742:2a1e&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=weblet) Danish Air (CPH (http://www.flightstats.co.uk/Airport/airportDetails.do?airportCode=CPH&utm_source=c228b59beca1b817:-5bcea562:10fe9d10742:2a1e&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=weblet)) Copenhagen 2:50 PM Scheduled (http://www.flightstats.co.uk/FlightStatus/flightStatusByFlight.do?id=624418782&airlineCode=DX&flightNumber=480&utm_source=c228b59beca1b817:-5bcea562:10fe9d10742:2a1e&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=weblet) EDW 140 (http://www.flightstats.co.uk/FlightStatus/flightStatusByFlight.do?id=624494989&airlineCode=EDW&flightNumber=140&utm_source=c228b59beca1b817:-5bcea562:10fe9d10742:2a1e&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=weblet) Edelweiss Air (ZRH (http://www.flightstats.co.uk/Airport/airportDetails.do?airportCode=ZRH&utm_source=c228b59beca1b817:-5bcea562:10fe9d10742:2a1e&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=weblet)) Zurich 2:50 PM En Route (http://www.flightstats.co.uk/FlightStatus/flightStatusByFlight.do?id=624494989&airlineCode=EDW&flightNumber=140&utm_source=c228b59beca1b817:-5bcea562:10fe9d10742:2a1e&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=weblet) LX 8140 (http://www.flightstats.co.uk/FlightStatus/flightStatusByFlight.do?id=624494989&airlineCode=LX&flightNumber=8140&utm_source=c228b59beca1b817:-5bcea562:10fe9d10742:2a1e&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=weblet) ^ SWISS (ZRH (http://www.flightstats.co.uk/Airport/airportDetails.do?airportCode=ZRH&utm_source=c228b59beca1b817:-5bcea562:10fe9d10742:2a1e&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=weblet)) Zurich 2:50 PM En Route (http://www.flightstats.co.uk/FlightStatus/flightStatusByFlight.do?id=624494989&airlineCode=LX&flightNumber=8140&utm_source=c228b59beca1b817:-5bcea562:10fe9d10742:2a1e&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=weblet)

Seems like someone is blocking out the flights when descent below FL100 as they then disapear.

[rog747]

i posted this yesterday re burnt seats

http://www.pprune.org/9170242-post1096.html sorry i cannot find the video though


also in the RT video in above post https://youtu.be/yQCVLAlkYVE
the pairs of 3 seats note the rear row is an exit row as the tray tables are stored in the armrests - they may come from door 3L/R

these seats are not the ones i saw on the RT news yesterday that are scorched

[mach411]

With respect to the position the toddler was found, I think RYFQB solved the mystery in post #1359. When the body was found, it appears that according to TASS (http://tass.ru/en/politics/834044) the most recent search area completed was 33 square kilometres. 33 kilometres is 20.51 miles, so the most likely explanation is the information was misreported as direct distance of 20 miles from the main crash site.

Given the 33 km^2 area, if we assume a circle, the body was actually found no more than 3.24 km away from the main crash site.

[A0283]

We are now getting better images of especially seats. Till now i have not seen anything - holes, fragmentation, fragments - that point to an explosion of the intentional kind. In fact, the more you see the more you are surprised how clean it all looks. Something which i posted before and also surprises other posters.
I do not know where people see scorching on the seats. I see a number of stains but there are multiple other explanations for them.
We also see Russian searchers checking the seats, and either moving or turning them. So as stated earlier. Interpretation of photos has to include this.

The rudder and rest of the vertical stabilizer are still missing as far as i know. Some suggest that everything has been found. But i do not know which source is the primairy publication channel. Nor have i heard any statements of the Egyptian leaders of the investigation.

So, still a lot of questions.

[andrasz]

ground appears sufficiently hard
This kind of compacted gravel desert terrain is very firm, driving over it feels like being on asphalt. Below the top 1-2 cm loose gravel the substrate consists of mud consolidated gravel, almost as hard as concrete (unless wet after a rare rainfall). Very clearly only the engines have managed to penetrate it to any significant depth.

[WNTT]

the pairs of 3 seats note the rear row is an exit row as the tray tables are stored in the armrests - they may come from door 3L/R

good point on the exit row (which one is to be determined), isn't row 9 (toddlers location if seated) around an exit? from the location of the outer tray table in the arm rest aren't these from the right side of the plane (D, E, F)?

The structure under the two pairs of three that supports them is pretty bulky and how that came detached (not just the chairs by themselves) seems suspicious.

[Marodeur]

Breaking News - Russia should suspend Egypt flights


"Russia should suspend all flights to Egypt until the cause of the Sinai crash is determined, the head of Russian security has suggested.
Aleksandr Bortnikov, head of the Federal Security Bureau (FSB), was addressing a Russian anti-terror committee meeting in Moscow".


Sinai plane crash: Russia 'should suspend Egypt flights' - BBC News (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34743216)


Well well well, so slowly some sense and sensibility is pervading even that supposedly impenetrable façade of 'business as usual'.

[ULMFlyer]

Wouldn't a jackscrew failure / runaway THS as the initial event like some have postulated (e.g. #1260) leave some trace in the FDR? What's its acquisition/sampling rate?

[oldoberon]

As for me, I'm just a humble engineer SLF, and I will be avoiding antique cycle-fatigued A321 airframes in the future, especially those which might have seen unreported tailstrikes and heavy landings. I hope someone will be smart enough to get an inspection régime going. One set of corpses is more than enough.

Edmund

how do you intend to avoid flying on A321 with an UNreported tailstrike or heavy landing.?

If you are going to be that paranoiac suggest you stop flying, all makes of aircraft have heavy landings, BTW did you stop flying in 737s after Hawaii open top incident.

[oleostrut]

"Given the 33 km^2 area, if we assume a circle, the body was actually found no more than 3.24 km away from the main crash site."

Reports on finding the toddler were very clear she was found a great distance from the crash site. Greater than 21 miles was what was reported, and investigators needed to greatly expand their search area, especially along the earlier flightpath.

Nowhere in any of the reports was there any ambiguity as to the child being found distant from the crash site.

[BrandonSoMD]

My reasoning is that if the wreckage had fallen like a stone, straight down along the y-axis, the impact with ground would have been more severe. A crater of some kind, more damage to the outer parts of the wings.
This demonstrates a flawed understanding of the real physical characteristics of an airliner. "Like a stone" is a complete misunderstanding of the relative density of a jet plane or its components. Instead, the average chunk of a jetplane is mostly air. It will not fall like a stone. Instead, it falls like a nearly empty cardboard box.

Barring an intact nose-first impact at very high speed, like 9/11 United 93, or the ValueJet 592 Everglades crash, which are clearly not the case here, the only chunks that are even capable of "cratering" typical soils are engines and landing gear.

[MATELO]

Russia now suspends flight to Egypt.

Airport Chaos As Russia Suspends Egypt Flights (http://news.sky.com/story/1582608/airport-chaos-as-russia-suspends-egypt-flights)

[oldoberon]

With respect to the position the toddler was found, I think RYFQB solved the mystery in post #1359. When the body was found, it appears that according to TASS (http://tass.ru/en/politics/834044) the most recent search area completed was 33 square kilometres. 33 kilometres is 20.51 miles, so the most likely explanation is the information was misreported as direct distance of 20 miles from the main crash site.

Given the 33 km^2 area, if we assume a circle, the body was actually found no more than 3.24 km away from the main crash site.

I missed that original post so thank you for quoting it and thanks to RYFQB for posting it.

It certain has a strong ring of a possible misunderstanding, hope it is correct as it removes a very "inconvenient" period of "What the heck was happening between then and black fail and apparent start point of break up.

[BrandonSoMD]

Wouldn't a jackscrew failure / runaway THS as the initial event like some have postulated (e.g. #1260) leave some trace in the FDR? What's its acquisition/sampling rate?
Not necessarily. While very unlikely, the jackscrew nut or some other attached component can fail catastrophically, instantly releasing the stab to full nose-down control. For example, the second half of this incident:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska_Airlines_Flight_261

To play to the "bomb" idea, a tiny chunk of explosive in the right spot on the jackscrew would do this instantly. Or a larger chunk in that general area.

[Ground Brick]

On Rusian TV the resque team was talking that search area is 2-3 km wide.
So 30 square kilometers search area is more like 10x3 km .
Doesnt mean, that toddler was found 10 km away, my gues - from 6 to 10.
Again, on TV there was mentioned "next day we will search even more far". So, from 6 to 10 km is reasonable.


Also, on page 60 - there is the link to russian web site with passanger manifest. What was is not mention here, is story related to passengers on seats 30C and 30D. One has traumas related to falling, is "burnt not much", and recognizible by relatives, another one not indentified (or not found).

[rog747]

the live RT HD news at 1200 yesterday had superb clear video of the scorched seats 2 rows x 3 seaters as i said in post 1096

they are not the same seats as in this https://youtu.be/yQCVLAlkYVE

as i said sorry i cannot find the RT clip - it was on their live UK report 1200 5/11

re row 9
i do not know what config metrojet had on their 321 re door 2/row 9
i think their config was the legal A321 max at 220Y so row 9 would be 2 rows ahead in zone A (fwd cabin, fwd of the door 2)

i have travelled this year on many 321's at door 2 exit -
Germania and it was row 11 and 12 Y215
Fly Niki was row 10 Y210
and Aegean I was in row 9 and 10 C/Y mix class

so all differ.....many airlines put an offset double seat pair right in the doorway with a triple seat behind (Germania was row 11DE and 12 DEF behind with 12F having no seat in front - same as Aegean)
Niki was a triple both sides at the door 2 no offset seats and was row 10 XL

[Wycombe]

Monitoring flights in/out of SSH on FR24.

I see EZY have hired the Titan 763, currently en-route to SSH

I see 2 EZY flights on their way back to UK, to LTN and LGW

I also see 2 TCX flights that look like they are turning around, namely TCX2706 from MAN (just done a 180 over Albania) and TCX1846 (turning off-track and in descent over Crete).

Will leave at that rather than speculate as to what's going on with the above.

[flightradar]

Sinai plane crash: Russia suspends Egypt flights - BBC News (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34743216)

[Pontius Navigator]

Brandon, my reference to 'proverbial stone' was 'as in dropped in a well' rather than as a ballistic item with unrestricted horizontal and vertical components.

More like a sycamore leaf would be more apt; high drag reducing both vertical and horizontal components.

[Niner Lima Charlie]

The U.S. Pentagon has released additional information about the "heat flash" seen by the SBIRS satellite. Further analysis of the data shows an initial IR flash followed by THREE additional flashes at lower altitudes, the final one most likely at ground level.

(As reported on CBS TV news.)

[GHEVY]

As reported Russia is also suspending all flights to Egypt based on advise from their security services. With UK, US and Russian governments having acted on what they must interpret as credible intelligence, my vote is with a bomb theory, irrespective of all the PPRUNE experts babble.

[lomapaseo]

ccording to the BEA there are 6 Airbus technical advisors on site. They will have seen the evidence close up, not the photos that PPruners are trying to interpret. These Airbus experts are just as likely to be British, Spanish (or German) as French. In the course of their work they are representing the manufacturer, not any particular nation State.

Just a quibble, but the Airbus technical advisors do represent the state of manufacture and as such their findings are expected to flow through the Investigator In Charge.

It is likely that any outside influences in what the press prints come only from within states (Prime ministers, presidents etc.) and not from technical advisors on-site.

I was particulary impressed by the guy in the videos writing with a sharpie pen along the fracture of the tail empenage. The arrows he was drawing map the progression and direction of the attachments as they separated. This likely will be used to assess the aerodynamic force vectors responsible. Do this over other major sections of the aircraft structure and you can point to the location of the initial break and then concentrate on a laboratory examination for things like over-pressure and/or cratering

[Wycombe]

Let's hope that's all it is PN and not some action from the Egyptian authorities as has also been suggested (could be media clap-trap).

TCX1846 appears to have landed at HER.

There are also a couple of TOM flights en-route (from BHX and MAN) and they seem to be continuing.

[flash8]

As reported Russia is also suspending all flights to Egypt based on advise from their security services. With UK, US and Russian governments having acted on what they must interpret as credible intelligence, my vote is with a bomb theory, irrespective of all the PPRuNe experts babble.

Indeed, this is actually a major development, and places huge credibility on the bomb theory as he (Putin) is likely to have significant input from MAK.

As Russians are the major tourists to Egypt (followed by the UK as #2) this will really impact the Egyptians.

Updated:

Russia has u-turned on its decision to suspend flying certificates for Boeing 737s, in a further hint that it no longer believes the fault for the Sinai plane crash was mechanical.

Think they mean Airbus...

[WNTT]

i do not know what config metrojet had on their 321 re door 2/row 9
i think their config was the legal A321 max at 220Y so row 9 would be 2 rows ahead in zone A (fwd cabin, fwd of the door 2)

looking at the manifest, row 9 and 10 has 3 seats left and right, and row 11 has 2.

looking at the pair of three rows of seats in that video i think that they are row 25, by 3R door. The front row of seats has a tray on the back of them so could they be row 23, and row 34 is missing?

this would be consistent with a large break up of the aircraft rear of the wings.

[RTM Boy]

Russian state news agency TASS is reporting the Kremlin as suspending flights to SSH 'until the causes of A321 crash are clear'. It goes on to report that 'Putin has instructed the government to ensure the return of Russian citizens from Egypt'.

[Lawyerboy]

Wycombe, there's a BHX MON flight as well that's been in the hold at DELMA for a good fifteen mins. Will be interesting to see what happens with the TOM flight. Nothing's been in or out of SSH for a while now.

[ExDubai]

Just a quibble, but the Airbus technical advisors do represent the state of manufacture and as such their findings are expected to flow through the Investigator In Charge.

It is likely that any outside influences in what the press prints come only from within states (Prime ministers, presidents etc.) and not from technical advisors on-site.

Be sure, if the Airbus advisors believe that their findings are different from what is stated in the report. Airbus will publish does findings in a "proper way".

[mach411]

"Given the 33 km^2 area, if we assume a circle, the body was actually found no more than 3.24 km away from the main crash site."

Reports on finding the toddler were very clear she was found a great distance from the crash site. Greater than 21 miles was what was reported, and investigators needed to greatly expand their search area, especially along the earlier flightpath.

Nowhere in any of the reports was there any ambiguity as to the child being found distant from the crash site.

I think if the body was found over 3km away, information from the ground might still have been relayed as it being a "great distance" away. Also if the body was clearly further away than other debris, that might still be of special meaning to the investigation. But it being found over 21 miles away seems implausible under any scenario I can think of.

[A0283]

Planes appear and disappear with some regularity on FR24. Some of these blank areas are sharply defined. Has to do with coverage i guess. Not something to worry about. Extrapolate and wait...
This is something i warn people about when they are tracking flights of family members. Especially when they have a dicky ticker. Could scare the beep out of people unfamiliar with the tool. Love the tool though.

[DaveReidUK]

Is it me or is it starting to look like Egyptian authorities are making life difficult for the UK?

The British Ambassador, interviewed by the BBC at SSH earlier today said, through gritted teeth, that the Egyptians were being very cooperative.

Very diplomatic.

A later phone conversation with tourists in the resort suggested that the locals' previously warm reception was eroding, not surprisingly given that many will likely lose their livelihoods.

[oldoberon]

been chaos at sharm this afternoon they are really screwing around by the look of it

3 thomson flights heading to sharm

TOM716 has crossed gulf of suez heading to sharm - now appears to have landed but not on arrivals

TOM620 cross coast north of cairo

TOM844 changed course short of coast and appears to be diverting to Cyprus

TFL091P almost got to sharm and has gone back to cyprus

844 + 091P on Paphos approach

TOM716 now appears to have landed but not on arrivals

monarch 8008 been circle NE of sharm over Dahab seems to have given up and appears to be diverting to hurghada

Tom 620 next to try

tom362 also going into paphos appears to be a diversion

whilst looking at paphos tom 620 cleared from fr24 well before sharm but suspect like 716 has landed at sharm

in summary 2 Tom landed, 1 Tom 1 Tui Paphos, 1 monarch hurghada

[RTM Boy]

TOM362 landed at PFO

[WNTT]

BA9251 on approach to SSH!

[slats11]

Russian plane crash: US president Obama says bomb 'possibly' brought down Metrojet airliner - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-11-06/obama-says-bomb-on-russian-plane-possibility/6918418)

We have moved beyond "unnamed officials speaking on condition of anonymity" to Obama and Cameron. Its pretty unlikely they would be putting their credibility on the line unless there was good reason to do so.

People here initially said there had to be an innocent explanation for MH370. Most people now accept there is no innocent explanation.

It was the same with Germanwings. People said there had to be some innocent explanation, and more and more implausible theories were put forward. It was only when the French Prosecutor released clear evidence that people accepted the truth.

I have the greatest respect for air accident investigators. Their untiring efforts over many decades have made air safety such that we generally take it for granted.

But air accident investigation goes back many decades. To a time when design faults and mechanical failures and serious navigational errors were relatively common. And to a time when air crashes were generally accidents. And to a time when painstaking examination of the wreckage was often the only path to finding the truth.

But the world has changed. Innocent errors are less common. And malevolent actions are more common. Air crashes are now more likely to be a crime than at any time in history. At the same time, criminal investigators and intelligence services have access to tools like satellite data and cell phone records and metadata. Tools that did not exist when modern air accident investigation was born.

There is absolutely a place for traditional air accident investigation. But increasingly this will take place in parallel to other forms of investigation. The world has changed, and we must change with it.


It is sometimes the job of "unnamed officials" to leak information in advance of political leaders. Such "leaks" are rarely non-authorised.

To the best of our knowledge, ISIS has never claimed responsibility for something it has not done. There is no valid reason to suspect this is any different.

Russia's entry into the Syrian conflict likely put ISIS in a bind. ISIS really had to strike at Russia in some way. The alternative was to do nothing, and thereby send a message that ISIS feared Russia.

If this recording was of some other event, it is likely that event would have been found by now. There can't be that many examples of mid-air explosions of large aircraft that have been captured on video.


Bear in mind this may be quite a different type of bombing. Historically bombs have got onto planes in passengers bags. The location of the bomb within the hold was random. This time, we have a plane sitting at night at air airport where security is lax. The bomb may have been carefully placed somewhere in the tail so as to cause certain structural failure as well as immediately take out the recorders.

[RTM Boy]

Titan EZY9007 on approach to LCA

[Interrogator]

EZY 9020 and 9024 now also diverting to LCA

[RTM Boy]

EZY9024 heading for Cyprus also.

Will Egyptians be equally 'difficult' with Russians now that they want to get their people out also?

[triumph61]

Debris Piece direct below 2L must be very interessting
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXKkHCMsnRY

http://img5.fotos-hochladen.net/uploads/2l5i5lt1fb964.jpg

[slats11]

The toddlers location as reported does not make sense. Does anyone know the source for this information?

Maybe it is a simple error of communication or a translation error.

The alternative is to accept a breach of the fuselage that allowed the poor child to exit, the plane then continued to fly its previous track, and the pilots did not make any call. It doesn't seem to add up.

[Volume]

Not necessarily. While very unlikely, the jackscrew nut or some other attached component can fail catastrophically, instantly releasing the stab to full nose-down control.So far we only had cases where those actuators failed while they were moved, so it is very unlikely that this would not be recorded on the FDR. The position pickup of the THS is independent from the actuator itself, but of course, if the event happens very rapidly, the data will not make it from the stab to the cockpit, back to the FDR and into static memory. And of course an event in the tail may knock out the FDR instantly, as it is installed exactly there.
The relatively low damage to the tail section makes it not very likely that something happened exectly there.

[Interrogator]

EZY 9030 and 9022 also heading down there they will probably divert also

[dsc810]

@slats11
original source with the quote from it is shown in post 1336 on page 67
Then picked up with and run by Daily Mail

[CONSO]

There are now several pics of the damaged tail section which **seem** to show the coupling between the jackscrew and HS- sort of an 'H' shaped part normally attached by large pins on left and right sides. *post 1317 and 1004 for examples *

What bothers me is that that part visible in the wreckage does not seem to be broken, ie: the 'ears" on the ends of the 'H' section seem to be undamaged. Which in turn means that the pins were pulled out in the reverse direction of normal installation.

Those pins are massive compared to other parts, and the "H" section is probably a machined part. Given the expected tumbling and impact damage of the tail section evident- it is IMO dfifficult to understand how at least two pins on the legs of the "H" either fell out or were removed without any obvious sign of damage. ( ears not damaged, pins or portions of pins not evident )

Could it be that the pins/jackscrew parts were removed by ground personnel before any of the released photos were taken ? :confused::confused:

OTOH that 'H" shaped part is *probably* not part of or related to the jackscrew at all - it does appear to be relatively thin. ??
NOTE added see post 1308 claiming H shaped part is of APU flap door assembly. Even so- how to explain removal of 'pins'/'links' ????

[andrasz]

There are many things that don't add up or outright contradictory. For example everyone takes it for granted that the bodies in the back were 'burnt', just because an unverified source says so. With the forward fuselage burnt and the rear not, I would expect it exactly the other way around. I find it hard to fathom how there could be unburnt bodies in the front, which crashed pretty much intact. I recall the well informed captain whoever in charge of the committee 'monitoring' SAR activities (the same who said the pilot reported engine trouble) stating that the wreckage was in two pieces, with the tail burnt. Perhaps something was lost in translation, or outright incorrect.

Also these 'heat flashes' have never been confirmed by any official US government source. Sources 'close to the Pentagon' or 'informed about the investigation' are as credible as my own ramblings (maybe less).

For now all we can rely on are the released photographs (and satellite map) which conclusively tell us the following:
- The plane broke up in mid-air, with the severance and fragmentation of the tail and rear fuselage early in the sequence
- The wings (minus engines), centre and front sections hit the ground in one piece
- The wings and centre section was apparently engulfed in a fireball fed by fuel from ruptured tank(s) as the soot and scorching marks on the engines far away from the ground fire cannot be explained otherwise. The dumping of much of the on-board fuel is also necessary to explain the relatively small ground fire (the nose section just 15 metres from the wing shows no sign of fire)
- The lack of anything but normal data with an abrupt stop on the FDR is consistent with what we could expect (and did predict)

Everything else is unconfirmed hearsay at the moment, as Kulverstukas well summed it up a few hundred posts ago there was absolutely no meaningful new information since two days, and we all go round and round in circles.

It is hard to judge whether the UK etc. and now Russian government reactions are based on any real intelligence or they are just the usual willy waving exercises. There is a lot of political capital that may be gained by appearing to do something on a matter where public expects firm action.

[Cyberhacker]

Rog747 wrote in Post http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/569907-breaking-news-airliner-missing-within-egyptian-fir-70.html#post9171772 re row 9
i do not know what config metrojet had on their 321 re door 2/row 9
i think their config was the legal A321 max at 220Y so row 9 would be 2 rows ahead in zone A (fwd cabin, fwd of the door 2)

Surely, we can rule out Row 9 being a emergency aisle row - as parents with a young child would not have been put in that row?

[Pontius Navigator]

Cyber, possibly, but you should never read across the norm for one carrier/country to another.

[Simplythebeast]

Andrasz........"It is hard to judge whether the UK etc. and now Russian government reactions are based on any real intelligence or they are just the usual willy waving exercises."

Oh pleeeeeese! Stop it.

[bbrown1664]

Perhaps the family were allocated the exit row on check in then moved once on board putting them at the back of the plane??

Just because they are allocated a specific seat at check-in doesn't mean they were actually sat there.

[susier]

Quote: Debris Piece direct below 2L must be very interessting

_________


I'm not certain but there does appear to be a vast blackened breach in the fuselage to the bottom right of your picture, and possibly what appears to be a large amount of peeled out skin just behind that?


I might not be seeing it correctly.

[thebes19]

It's now being reported that "Egyptian authorities say a bomb is the most plausible reason for last weekend's deadly Russian jet crash."

Metrojet Plane Crash: Egyptian Authorities Say Bomb Is Most Plausible Scenario as Russia Halts Flights - ABC News (http://abcnews.go.com/International/putin-suspend-russian-flights-egypt-deadly-jet-crash/story?id=35019367)

Also, various British media are reporting that the Egyptians say they don't have enough storage space for all the British travelers' luggage and that's why the British planes are being turned back/diverted from Sharm.

[WNTT]

I think that the location of the toddlers body away from the crash site has been overstated by media outlets and its actually nearer the main crash site than 20 miles. There was only one ‘event’ that was indicated by the FR24 data.

For what it is worth, I now unfortunately think that it will turn out to be a small to medium sized bomb in the aft cargo bay, resulting in the structural failure and disintegration of the rear fuselage (note the pictures of the ‘peeled’ roof of the rear fuselage without fire damage and seats still attached to structural bearings) and detachment of the tail with damage from disintegrated fuselage parts.

The front fuselage and wings unable to fly on, lost horizontal speed and fell near vertically rotating and pitching as it went. At some point prior to impact ignited (causing sooting to engine intake), with an additional fireball on the ground.

[andrasz]

@SimplyTB

Call me cynical, but I have had some (unintentional) insights into how government works. As Sir Humphrey once famously said it, never believe anything the government says unless it is officially denied.

I am not saying it was NOT a bomb (on the balance of probabilities it was), but I'm saying that because of what I see and understand about the facts as we know them now, and not because of any government action motivated by second, third and fourth agendas. As anyone with some insight into aviation security knows, Sharm is about the most secure airport in the world right now.

[Pontius Navigator]

WNTT, a pretty good hypothesis. Just that awkward little fact; they have yet to confirm the presence of a bomb.

Confirm in either sense - that they have found evidence but not revealed it or that they have yet to find evidence.

[oldoberon]

There are now several pics of the damaged tail section which **seem** to show the coupling between the jackscrew and HS- sort of an 'H' shaped part normally attached by large pins on left and right sides. *post 1317 and 1004 for examples *

What bothers me is that that part visible in the wreckage does not seem to be broken, ie: the 'ears" on the ends of the 'H' section seem to be undamaged. Which in turn means that the pins were pulled out in the reverse direction of normal installation.

Those pins are massive compared to other parts, and the "H" section is probably a machined part. Given the expected tumbling and impact damage of the tail section evident- it is IMO dfifficult to understand how at least two pins on the legs of the "H" either fell out or were removed without any obvious sign of damage. ( ears not damaged, pins or portions of pins not evident )

Could it be that the pins/jackscrew parts were removed by ground personnel before any of the released photos were taken ? :confused::confused:

OTOH that 'H" shaped part is *probably* not part of or related to the jackscrew at all - it does appear to be relatively thin. ??

assume your H part is the one I have circled on the left

http://i66.tinypic.com/fjf5dv.jpg

I asked if it was part of jackscrew assembly and told NO. see post 1315 from Sardak replying to me , pretty sure the guy works at A321 plant in usa

also look at these from Kulverstukas, I can't see a bit like the H, I asked because of course none of the images concerned are from same angle lighting etc.

http://i68.tinypic.com/2m42byd.jpg

http://i67.tinypic.com/15wdvl2.jpg

[WNTT]

Just that awkward little fact; they have yet to confirm the presence of a bomb.

Very very true, and I hope that they don't confirm it, and the actual reason is due to a older poorly maintained airframe (less far reaching implications).

[Kulverstukas]

andrasz
For example everyone takes it for granted that the bodies in the back were 'burnt', just because an unverified source says so.

About 50 bodies was claimed by relatives because they has been identified through "common" or "simple" procedure as they state it in press. This mean that them was nor heavily burned nor fragmented, right?

Have access to pax list and names of victims (from reports of funerals) we can make conclusion which part of plane was not burned/shredded.

I can be wrong but seems it's rows 29-backward

[Pontius Navigator]

Andrasz. Quite agree except about security. The News feed clearly showed an inadequate body search and a less than alert scanner operator.

I accept that lots of extra layers are in place but if, of two, one is lax or relaxed then there are not two layers.

[Ewout]

A new video footage showing the examination of the debris.
I got them from the video. https://youtu.be/yQCVLAlkYVE
(https://t.co/mRN9mWyNis)



https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CTJFi9GU8AAVgnX.jpg

[Kulverstukas]

What is this "sound of explosion on recorder" France2 channel is referring too?

[RTM Boy]

As EZY9022 and TCX270 are on approach to LCA, it's amazing that LCA can handle all the unscheduled arrivals, but SSH apparently can't. Funny that. Where will TOM898 end up..? Let me think... Egyptians not being difficult, of course not, how could anyone conclude that?!

We hear suggestions that CVR is badly damaged and possibly unrecoverable and that the FDR stopped recording just before whatever happened, happened. Wouldn't that be convenient...(for whom?)

6 days of Russia saying there's no evidence of a bomb, criticising the UK very strongly yesterday for suspending flights, not engaging with them, now Russia halts all flight to Egypt. Funny that.

SSH security widely considered to be a shambles, but now the toughest in the world...overnight. Of course it is.

Agenda anyone?

Will we ever get a definitive answer as to what happened? Now I doubt it very much.

[oleostrut]

"I asked if it was part of jackscrew assembly and told NO. see post 1315 from Sardak replying to me , pretty sure the guy works at A321 plant in usa

also look at these from Kulverstukas, I can't see a bit like the H, I asked because of course none of the images concerned are from same angle lighting etc."

Look at the structure on either side of the pivot points. They are airfoil ribs like you would see in a small plane's wing or tail. This shape exists on the APU air intake door, but is not part of anything on the jackscrew.

Look further down and closer to the camera, and duct box or air plenum is visible.

[FDMII]

https://photos.smugmug.com/photos/i-MJcgk5n/0/L/i-MJcgk5n-L.jpg



https://photos.smugmug.com/photos/i-6rnS92w/0/XL/i-6rnS92w-XL.jpg

[Unavailable]

06/11/2015 18:11 BREAKING French media claims black box data confirms Metrojet A321 was bombed over Sinai
The black boxes of the aircraft made it possible to clearly hear the sound of an explosion during the flight, said Friday, November 6th an investigator to France2.
He said the explosion would not be secondary to engine failure, which would remove the assumption of the accident.
06/11/2015 15:40 Russia should suspend flights to Egypt while Sinai crash investigated - FSB chief
06/11/2015 14:49 Egypt's Minister of Civil Aviation says ‪#‎Sharmelsheikh‬ airport will operate 8 flights to the UK instead of the 29 flights scheduled today
06/11/2015 14:42 Emergency crews search A321 flight 7K9268 debris

Source in French: INFO FRANCE 2. Crash dans le Sinaï : l'explosion n'était pas d'origine accidentelle, indiquent les boîtes noires (http://www.francetvinfo.fr/monde/afrique/crash-d-un-avion-russe-en-egypte/info-france-2-crash-de-l-avion-russe-dans-le-sinai-il-y-a-bien-eu-une-explosion-en-vol-et-elle-n-est-pas-d-origine-accidentelle-indiquent-les-boites-noires_1162873.html)

P.S. please delete if it's been mentioned before.

[AVR4000]

It would be interesting if everyone who is convinced about a bomb could share their thoughts on the following:

1. The damaged vertical stabilizer.
2. The detached horizontal stabilizers.
3. The 25 seconds of FR24 data transmitted after the event.
4. The damages to the tail section with separated APU compartment.

I have a hard time to see how the tail section can be so damaged if a bomb detached it. Earlier bombings such as the destruction of a JAT DC-9 clearly shows that a tail section remains more or less intact if it separates due to an explosion in the cabin or cargo hold.

The damages to the tail is a strong indicator that something happened there and until images prove otherwise, the rear pressure bulkhead and/or stabilizer assembly continues to create questions.

A detached tail section (if we assume the fuselage broke apart behind the wings and in front of the rear cabin doors) would fall more or less in one piece with the stabilizers still attached.

It is also worth to mention the simple fact that different groups has been claiming responsibility for bombs even if the cause is something else. If there is an official statement from the investigation team about damages caused by a bomb blast, then there is little doubt but I have a strong suspicion that bomb speculations are a diversion from the true cause of the accident.

Edit: It is normal that a "bang" is heard on the CVR and I wouldn't pay too much attention to "breaking news" unless there is press conference with the investigative team where it is stated without a doubt that "analysis of the sound on the CVR confirm that it was an explosion rather than structural failure".

[oleostrut]

"06/11/2015 18:11 BREAKING French media claims black box data confirms Metrojet A321 was bombed over Sinai
The black boxes of the aircraft made it possible to clearly hear the sound of an explosion during the flight, said Friday, November 6th an investigator to France2."

This comes after the official statement that stated there was no data on either recorder.

But it might explain Russia's flight cancellations into the area.

[Mesoman]

"He said the explosion would not be secondary to engine failure, which would remove the assumption of the accident."

This does not remove the possibility of an accident. For example, a fuel tank explosion like TWA800 need not be related to an engine failure.

It sounds like a probable fact that the explosion was not preceded by abnormal readings, but that fact is leading to an inappropriate inference of a non-accidental cause.

BTW... I used Google Chrome to translate the web page from French to English, so the above quote is a result of an automatic translation. Chrome is very handy for this purpose - in my case, it put up a question above the page asking if I wanted it translated.

[Nightingale14]

Anyone here interested in Black Box analysis, who does not already own it, might be interested in purchasing a copy of Beyond the Black Box by George Bibel. In it he describes how modern explosives detonate (send shock waves throughout the plane) so that they generate distinctive patterns of damage which are readily identified by experienced flight accident investigators.

[WNTT]

It would be interesting if everyone who is convinced about a bomb could share their thoughts on the following:

1. The damaged vertical stabilizer.
2. The detached horizontal stabilizers.
3. The 25 seconds of FR24 data transmitted after the event.
4. The damages to the tail section with separated APU compartment.

My thoughts are that a bomb in the aft cargo bay didn’t result in the rear fuselage/tail becoming structurally detached straight away, but large sections of the rear fuselage where free / released in the jet stream and impacted with the tail resulting in the detachment/damage of the APU, HS, VS, and tail (this is swept backwards). Then finally in the detachment of the tail, maybe from ‘flapping’ around in the jet stream.

[Kulverstukas]

This comes after the official statement that stated there was no data on either recorder.

No, there was official statement that FDR was stopped before event and that CVR is damaged and will take some time to read. There was also "it is possible that CVR will not contain moment of event too" phrase in official statement, not that there WAS no data.

[22/04]

I am beginning to think that some people know a lot more than we are being told now.

Reluctantly believing there is evidence of a bomb which is known but not released.

We have seen (and being trying to armchair investigate) lots of pictures but nothing from the investigating team- quite unlike the Germanwings situation or the investigation into the crashed helicopter here in the UK.

Probably in the rear cargo hold and involved the centre fuel tank.

But I still think the DAISH video is a fake- aircraft looks more like say a king air at the start that a 321

[AlphaZuluRomeo]

As EZY9022 and TCX270 are on approach to LCA, it's amazing that LCA can handle all the unscheduled arrivals, but SSH apparently can't. Funny that. Where will TOM898 end up..?
LCA too.

There was also TCX2706 that made a U-turn over the Albanian-greek border, and is now almost back at Manchester.

[MrSnuggles]

Linked article INFO FRANCE 2. Crash dans le Sinaï*: l'explosion n'était pas d'origine accidentelle, indiquent les boîtes noires (http://www.francetvinfo.fr/monde/afrique/crash-d-un-avion-russe-en-egypte/info-france-2-crash-de-l-avion-russe-dans-le-sinai-il-y-a-bien-eu-une-explosion-en-vol-et-elle-n-est-pas-d-origine-accidentelle-indiquent-les-boites-noires_1162873.html) :

nterrogée par l'AFP, une source proche du dossier indique qu'une des boîtes noires confirme le caractère "brutal, soudain" de l'événement. "Tout est normal, absolument normal pendant le vol, et brutalement plus rien", a déclaré cette source. "Cela va dans le sens de la soudaineté, du caractère immédiat, de l'événement", a-t-elle ajouté, alors que les deux boîtes noires, celle des paramètres de vol et celle contenant les conversations de l'équipage, ont été analysées.My translation:
"Questioned by AFP, a source with insight* claims that one of the black boxes confirms the idea of a "brutal and sudden" event. "Everything is normal, absolutely normal during the flight and suddenly nothing", said this source. "This is where the feeling of abruptness, an immediate event, sets in", said the source even though** both the black boxes, with their flight parametres and voice recordings are still being analysed."

*something like "close to the investigation" or "with access to the information" - proche = closeby, dossier = dossier

**meanwhile/during, "still in the process of"

[oleostrut]

"No, there was official statement that FDR was stopped before event and that CVR is damaged and will take some time to read. There was also "it is possible that CVR will not contain moment of event too" phrase in official statement, not that there WAS no data."

The official statements posted here indicated there was no data after the event. All normal readings, then everything stopped.

I did not imply the recorders were blank, but that they recorded nothing associated with the event, they just stopped at that point.

[puffyflyer]

Devils advocate

Wreckage....

Tail is totally seperate...a distinctly "unzipped" look about it across the top of the fuselage...majority of the rudder and at least one stabiliser AWOL...what has been found landed right way up apart from the very end part with the APU that seems to be on its side with APU doors open

Fuselage & wings.....pretty much together, burned wings and middle/aft fuselage...but upside down

Things that jump out as "erm...what the heck?"

Luggage...bearing in mind the fuselage is burned around 66% of its length, there is alot of intact and soot free luggage...with zipped cases still zipped up and no real "crash/bash/burn" damage

Seats...again...bearing in mind the amount of fuselage lost to fire...which probably happened upon impact due to the plane having loaded tanks....on the whole the seats are not in too bad shape...bloodied, dusty, torn...but nothing more than would be expected after a crash

Bodies...autopy results pointing at burns...well there was a fire, so bodies would be burned....BUT...so far no reports of sooting in the lungs, which would be the case in the inflight fire scenario...people breathing in soot, sits on lungs and they succumb....no confirmed lung sooting as yet.....so til that is confirmed, we are likely looking at post impact with ground fire and not midair fire

Historical damage...the plane had a 3 month repair period after a severe tailstrike in Cairo 2001...what do we KNOW about that repair, who did it, were they qualified etc (remember JAL123 had her tail repaired by Boeing in Haneda in 1978 only for that "official" repair to fail in 1985) so an "official" repair is by no means a good repair

Internals....jackscrew etc....going back to the tailstrike...is it possible that during the strike repair that damage was overlooked/missed...of course it is, engineers are only human and can easily miss things that they are not actually looking for

China Airlines 611...she had nicotine stains for years on her tail after the tailstrike repair, she was serviced/maintained/resprayed...no-one questions where those nicotine stains came from...they were missed and as it turned out, they might have saved lives had they been noticed and investigated

Could this be foul play...well yes...but by now and with the amount of media scrutiny, let alone political scrutiny, any trace of explosive residue found would be screaming across every headline from here to mars by now...(remember TWA800...FBI spokesman.."it was a missile"...then they calmed down, stopped jumping to conclusions and discovered it was a tiny design flaw)

Egyptian investigations...can we really get the truth....I don't know...EgyptAir 990 showed tht they really cannot cope well with taking the blame...and now we have a possible scenario of blame plus loss of tourism...with the best will in the world they stand to lose massively if this really was foul play,,,so for now, jury is out til they can prove to be impartial

So...what are we left with....a Rubik's cube of a plane mystery, 224 people snuffed out before their time.....my money, not that its worth alot...still goes with that tailstrike...that tail and the repair and the fact the plane was a charter baby always chopping and changing operators which will inevitably mean some maintenance records accidently go walkies and a tailstrike in 2001 that no-one really knows much about (which would be my interpretation of the airline's "external" impact cos they did not use the plane back then)

These poor people suffered a similar event to that of JAL 123 and China 611 in that a poor repair several years before caught up with them and the only explosion was the explosive decompression when that tail went...and the toddler was likely in the back toilet having a nappy change cos babies usually poo when the plane is taking off...seriously, they do

[Bertie Bonkers]

"06/11/2015 18:11 BREAKING French media claims black box data confirms Metrojet A321 was bombed over Sinai
The black boxes of the aircraft made it possible to clearly hear the sound of an explosion during the flight, said Friday, November 6th an investigator to France2."

This comes after the official statement that stated there was no data on either recorder.

But it might explain Russia's flight cancellations into the area.

Though one man's 'gunshot' is another man's 'cricket bat hitting a toilet door', as debated at length in court during the trial of Oscar Pistorius.

[oldchina]

"I am beginning to think that some people know a lot more than we are being told now"

Bravo! Eureka!
Someone has seen the light.
You private detectives have no right to be told anything!
The truth will come out in due course. In the meantime the investigators will do their work.

[Andy Furlong]

Although this forum generates a lot of guesswork when accidents occur, there are people, like me, who find all theories fascinating. As someone once said: 'Suffer fools gladly because sometimes they're right'. :)

[andrasz]

@AVR4000

On the first (and only) video screencap we have of the left HS it is very clearly visible that the upper composite skin failed after it was bent up 90 degrees against the fuselage. If the HS support structure failed first, the entire HS would have parted in one piece as it is a very strong component.

The fact that it did not indicates that the damage was due to aerodynamic loads after the tail separated.

The reason it had to happen after separation is that had the aircraft entered an attitude that would snap the HS off the wings would have snapped too. All this talk about whether the jackscrew is visible on the photo or not is pretty meaningless in this context.

This implies that the structural disintegration started in front of the tail, somewhere in the rear fuselage. A structural failure of a well placed bomb would produce EXACTLY the same symptoms. The only way to tell for certain is to find components with clear explosion damage. I'm sure IF there are any traces, the investigators now by now (as do the involved governments). However the lack of any formal announcement puts this into doubt, everyone is talking about 'possibly' or 'likely' which to me either means that they themselves have no clue, or the Egyptians who are leading the investigation do not want to admit it.

[Kulverstukas]

If this in fact was a bomb, as it seems its the direction its going now, how safe are other airports such as Turkey, Morocco and many others in 3.rd world countries?

If also take in account that a lot of ISIS people confirmed as GB, France and other "First World" born and raised, how safe are other airports?

[funfly]

Andy Furlong :ok:

[Kulverstukas]

or the Egyptians who are leading the investigation do not want to admit it.

EMERCOM head said today that samples of all a/c parts was collected and sent to RF for examination of explosive contamination. So Egyptians has no chance to fool anybody...

[The Sultan]

One common misperception is that FDR's record real time. Before digital they may have, but now the data supplier or the actual recorder buffers the data before writing it to memory. I have heard as long as the last two minutes can be lost. New regs trying to reduce this feature to a few seconds.

The Sultan

[sooty655]

Of course it is not politically correct to imply that the airport have employed 50% of their staff that could be likely recruitment tools for ISIS.
Since many of ISIS recruits have been western converts, it is not only not politically correct, it is also just plain not correct.

[JulioLS]

My thoughts are that a bomb in the aft cargo bay didn’t result in the rear fuselage/tail becoming structurally detached straight away, but large sections of the rear fuselage where free / released in the jet stream and impacted with the tail resulting in the detachment/damage of the APU, HS, VS, and tail (this is swept backwards). Then finally in the detachment of the tail, maybe from ‘flapping’ around in the jet stream.

No evidence of contact damage on the HS... and the rudder yet to be shown.

Key point is that the HS seems sheered off without cany contact...

Puzzling I know.... but it does not support your theory.

[oldoberon]

It would be interesting if everyone who is convinced about a bomb could share their thoughts on the following:

1. The damaged vertical stabilizer.
2. The detached horizontal stabilizers.
3. The 25 seconds of FR24 data transmitted after the event.
4. The damages to the tail section with separated APU compartment.

I have a hard time to see how the tail section can be so damaged if a bomb detached it. Earlier bombings such as the destruction of a JAT DC-9 clearly shows that a tail section remains more or less intact if it separates due to an explosion in the cabin or cargo hold.

The damages to the tail is a strong indicator that something happened there and until images prove otherwise, the rear pressure bulkhead and/or stabilizer assembly continues to create questions.

A detached tail section (if we assume the fuselage broke apart behind the wings and in front of the rear cabin doors) would fall more or less in one piece with the stabilizers still attached.

It is also worth to mention the simple fact that different groups has been claiming responsibility for bombs even if the cause is something else. If there is an official statement from the investigation team about damages caused by a bomb blast, then there is little doubt but I have a strong suspicion that bomb speculations are a diversion from the true cause of the accident.

Edit: It is normal that a "bang" is heard on the CVR and I wouldn't pay too much attention to "breaking news" unless there is press conference with the investigative team where it is stated without a doubt that "analysis of the sound on the CVR confirm that it was an explosion rather than structural failure".

I'll have a go at that for you, two scenarios for a bomb which converge.

a) Bomb in rear baggage hold, large chunk of LH side fuselage hit LH HS sheering it off, also starts centre tank fire - stop

B) bomb in galley- ruptures RPB forces HS full down (vertical), LH HS sheers externally. HS screw jack assembly forced through top skin causing 2/3rd of VS to break away. RH HS and stump of LH VS now "flapping " around, then departs rearwards and upwards forcing the section of HS inside HS compartment downwards, this causes floor and skin of HS compartment to break away.

The apu may have detached as a result of the initial galley blast or as a result of the airflow once the HS comp ceased to exist, but it seems to have been undamaged in the air

The remaining rear section now has zero structural strength the top starts to "sag" putting stress on joints further fwd which coupled with the effect of a bomb in either location cause it to snap off just fwd of the rear doors. Time taken for total disintegration single figure seconds.

My only problem is the fire, A) would probably cause it immediately B) it would have to be caused by leakage as plane broke up and sparks from cables.

Re FR24 simple even when back end breaking up engines still powering front end so data continues to be transmitted albeit it may be dodgy due to rapid erratic movements of plane.

[oldoberon]

No, there was official statement that FDR was stopped before event and that CVR is damaged and will take some time to read. There was also "it is possible that CVR will not contain moment of event too" phrase in official statement, not that there WAS no data.

did that statement say at what UTC time they ceased recording.?

[CONSO]

Agree the ' H" shaped piece is not an obvious or likely part of Jackscrew assembly. even so it appears to have " mouse ears " with holes for some sort of round strut or pin - which may have been part of a temporary support structure during factory assembly. I'm just questioning the lack of damage to parts which ** seem** to be designed to hold or align some sort of pin(s) or round bar.

And why no pics of Jackscrew parts/assembly ? perhaps not yet found ??

post number changed now closer to 142*

[lomapaseo]

I think a lot of the public consumption gets too wrapped up in the "V" word in CVR standing for Voice.

There are other pieces of evidence also captured by the CVR which are electrically driven through the wires coming from both the Mics and the power source.

The electrical experts know what circuits do when severed and acoustic experts know what airborne noise travels to mics as well as structure borne ringing. All it takes is a half second of this stuff imprinted on the CVR to assess

[Randall Flagg]

@#1444 quote: -----
Although this forum generates a lot of guesswork when accidents occur, there are people, like me, who find all theories fascinating. As someone once said: 'Suffer fools gladly because sometimes they're right'.
------

I agree 100% - it's like sitting in and watching a high powered debating circle / thinktank at work.
I could sit and read these threads all day, I love the fact that as a complete know-nothing I can rub shoulders with the likes of test pilots, jet airliner pilots to catering staff and just plain old 'people who know alot of stuff about air travel'

Sorry to wander off topic, I will add that if someone wanted to write a book about this Irish/Russian airliner downing they could probably do so using just this thread !

Have a nice weekend, all
R.F.

[peterccole]

@#1444 quote: -----
Although this forum generates a lot of guesswork when accidents occur, there are people, like me, who find all theories fascinating. As someone once said: 'Suffer fools gladly because sometimes they're right'.
------

I agree 100% - it's like sitting in and watching a high powered debating circle / thinktank at work.
I could sit and read these threads all day, I love the fact that as a complete know-nothing I can rub shoulders with the likes of test pilots, jet airliner pilots to catering staff and just plain old 'people who know alot of stuff about air travel'

Sorry to wander off topic, I will add that if someone wanted to write a book about this Irish/Russian airliner downing they could probably do so using just this thread !

Have a nice weekend, all
R.F.
Well said. I have only just subscribed as I have an interest in this story ( I used to work at Rolls-Royce so have an interest in aviation generally). It's fascinating to her the opinions of other who have direct experience in flying ( and also some others who have not..)

[anartificialhorizon]

Who says the tail, HS etc. came off immediately? It looks to me like the side wall departed first (in the intial explosion) followed by some pax (the toddler being one- God rest her soul) with other parts trailing in the wind....

With a compromised struture, the rear fuselage eventually failed, dumping parts of the empennage of the way down.

This would explain the FDR continuing to record as the electrical wiring to it and its data feed may not have been compromised until the tail finally let go.

Simple?

[flash8]

Can anyone tell me who is leading this investigation?

I find it (incredibly) hard to believe it is the Egyptians as frequently stated in the Media.. am I to assume that is just the 'official' line and MAK + BEA are (hopefully) in control?

[er340790]

Well if ISIS can manage to convince some teenage girls from London to leave their school and their families, you wonder how many other "targets" they have, you just need to walk trough Luton Airport security to see the irony! Of course it is not politically correct to imply that the airport have employed 50% of their staff that could be likely recruitment tools for ISIS.


Agreed. Anyone dismissing this as a 'Third World' issue, has their head deep in the sand. I would suggest that, while we have been vigilant, we have also been extremely lucky to date.

Just multiply the number of people with airside access at major gateway airports (50,000 av?) x number of such airports and you're into tens of millions of potentially weakest links. It only takes one.

If such a thing can happen, albeit at a 'chance of one in x million' you only have to extend the time horizon long enough and, not only can it happen, it will happen, indeed it MUST happen.

Do we really believe that we will get lucky ALL the time?

[glad rag]

The problem is they released this immediately after the incident and this was from a wing of ISIS that only has released information in the past that has been verified as being true.

Also, all this confirmation from governments saying they overhead "chatter" and were warning other countries lends credibility to this.

Show us this "chatter".

[SonomaFlyer]

We may never know the true answer but how many times have security services foiled attempts to get air side access by people intent on terrorism? I agree we've been lucky (relatively speaking) but unfortunately, I can't see this run of luck lasting much longer given current events.

[Smott999]

So as the notion of a bomb gains supporters, what's our votes for the following options:
1) they've found bomb residue and/or signatures, but have suppressed the info

2) there's still no evidence there, but perhaps for some reason it's difficult to assess, such as (fill in the blanks)...a new bomb material....debris w signatures not yet located ....and so on....
Therefore Bomb still the cause.....

???

[Chronus]

Can anyone tell me who is leading this investigation?

I find it (incredibly) hard to believe it is the Egyptians as frequently stated in the Media.. am I to assume that is just the 'official' line and MAK + BEA are (hopefully) in control?

Now that every mother and its dog is trying to get out of Dodge fast, I would have thought it would be the local fuzz, with a few from other Counties and the Met, sniffing around. It can only be an air accident investigation if it was an accident. If it was a bomb then could it have gone off by accident would I suppose would be the only way it could still be an accident.

[TWT]

Maybe they did finally have some success with the CVR download and heard an explosion.Whether they have any definitive results from swabs for explosives residue is unknown,as are many things at this stage.

[Kulverstukas]

Smott999, I think #2

Also there was information that Egyptians investigate SSH security and interrogate airport staff, so may be they share some findings (possibly not connected to this particular bombing but so dirty that nobody will excuse governments not to take care).

[Slow and curious]

New type of explosives?

[thcrozier]

Content deleted by author.

[Pontius Navigator]

Show us this "chatter".

Chatter is not a number of telephone transcripts but more likely traffic analysis, spikes of communication from one location and perhaps from several. You might have a call from A to many asking for information. You might have and unusual amount of email traffic etc.

You then back track and perhaps examine what was said before the event and so on.

[GlobalNav]

"No wonder the UK is firmly backing option 1 and persuading all others that it is the only reasonable explanation. There is a lot of political manoeuvering behind the scenes to ensure the "right" outcome."

Rubbish. If there is an airworthiness issue with the airplane, it will take time to sort it out and determine a fix. Unless it is blatant and unmistakable, there would be no immediate airworthiness action taken.

It seems like clues from satellite imagery, and black boxes that a sudden event, consistent with explosion occurred and and enough intelligence clues that a terrorist act may have occurred and it is prudent to take some protective measures in light of the obvious motives against Russia and west European states.

The available clues do not have to be conclusive or even the "only reasonable explanation" to take such steps. They only have to be sufficiently feasible that to ignore the potential for additional loss of life would be reckless and irresponsible.

[oleostrut]

The mention of a "thermal signature" has me wondering if they are able to do a spectral analysis of the fireball as seen from the satellite. Done right, this can tell the analyst what is burning (at least on the elemental level), and at what temperature.

[sopwithnz]

@ILS27LEFT

I have not seen more than one video -- I think it's only one but with differently edited versions and presentations.

But I did see the original statement of claim published by the local Sinai-based sub group of Isis/Daesh who claimed responsibility very swiftly after the crash, within the first 24 hours.

One extra detail that chilled me was the Arabic date on the 'claiming presentation' -- it was the group's assertion it 'brought down' the plane on the first anniversary of the Sinai group's signed allegiance to Isis/Daesh.

Makes it less than random.

Details, but not the original story I read -- http://www.vocativ.com/news/246890/isis-provides-first-proof-it-was-behind-the-metrojet-plane-crash/

[thcrozier]

The mention of a "thermal signature" has me wondering if they are able to do a spectral analysis of the fireball as seen from the satellite. Done right, this can tell the analyst what is burning (at least on the elemental level), and at what temperature.

I'd be shocked if they don't have that capability, but I doubt an announcement is forthcoming. It's really just high school chemistry and physics.

[oleostrut]

sopwithnz (http://www.pprune.org/members/305320-sopwithnz):

The first video released was a fake. It showed a DC9 that crashed in the Congo 8 years ago (or so).

[ILS27LEFT]

@ILS27LEFT

I have not seen more than one video -- I think it's only one but with differently edited versions and presentations.

But I did see the original statement of claim published by the local Sinai-based sub group of Isis/Daesh who claimed responsibility very swiftly after the crash within the first 24 hours.

One extra detail that chilled me was the Arabic date on the 'claiming presentation' -- it was the group's assertion it 'brought down' the plane on the first anniversary of the Sinai group's signed allegiance to Isis/Daesh.

Makes it less than random.

Trying to find the link but not so easy now .. brb.

Totally agree, I do not believe in so many coincidences. They were very quick in releasing the video but also nobody can confirm that video is fake. It looks like the correct aircraft, the applicable weather and altitude, too many coincidences...it might be genuine but why no official comments on it yet. I have not seen any official statement that declares the video as fake except meaningless YouTube users comments. If this video was stolen or recycled from another incident we would know by now. It looks genuine to me and even if I cannot conduct an in depth analysis of the file itself I doubt that the terrorists could get so many facts so perfectly right as aircraft type, weather, altitude, location of explosion and so on. I simply do not believe in so many coincidences, these terrorists would be really very knowledgeable if the video is fake. You then see the recent intelligence news, you watch the video again and...no need to say more really. What else do we need to see to understand that it was in fact a bomb? Nothing really.
P.S. for user above ...The video is not the DC9 but the correct aircraft type I am afraid. Very clear.
https://youtu.be/xW9lUPLQag8
I agree that video quality is bad and it looks like a typical fake but due to the fact that too many technical details are perfectly correct ( e.g. aircraft type, altitude, location of explosion, weather, etc) I have to now trust this video. If fake the authors knew absolutely everything about this incident before all of us which is basically impossible e.g. the burnt bodies sitting at the rear indicate explosion located at the rear and so on.

[sopwithnz]

@oleostrut

Thx .. do you have a link for that ? The only google refs I can find for such a DC9 crash in the Congo says it took place on TO not at altitude ?
http://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=20080415-0


It is deeply troubling to me that this many days after the video was first published, with thousands seeking evidence, no-one has presented proof or evidential doubt of what flight/explosion is actually shown.

Clearer version on this link:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U8-5lo191p8

[MountainBear]

The available clues do not have to be conclusive or even the "only reasonable explanation" to take such steps. They only have to be sufficiently feasible that to ignore the potential for additional loss of life would be reckless and irresponsible.

This could have been said much more simply (but less diplomatically) in three letters:

CYA

[auraflyer]

The mention of a "thermal signature" has me wondering if they are able to do a spectral analysis of the fireball as seen from the satellite

oleostrut, very interesting. Until you raised this, I assumed they would just be monitoring infrared, in which case the spectral info you would need would not be captured. However, we are obviously talking military sats here, so who knows... I suspect we are more likely to learn info from GC/HPLC-MS due to availability of testable fragments and desire to preserve secrecy about capabilities.

[PlatinumFlyer]

It's hard to believe the bad guys were in just the right place and time to video a bomb blast. The video seems to indicate an explosion on the left side of the aircraft. I would think that if it was a 'shoot down', the missile would have hit one of the engines, assuming it was homing in on the heat.

[oleostrut]

"Thx .. do you have a link for that ? The only google refs I can find for such a DC9 crash in the Congo says it took place on TO not at altitude ?"

The very first video released claiming responsibility did not show an aircraft in flight, just a closeup of the plane burning on the ground. Lots of propaganda along with the pics.

I do not have a link to the video, but I do have a copy I could send you or post/send screenshots.

[mitrosft]

Some Russian media, via FB

Unnamed source in MI-6: C-4 explosive (traces discovered) packed in dark liquor bottle with unknow type of fuse. In the rear cargo bay. Set by Russians passengers, who checked their baggage in, got their boarding passes, but never boarded.

No official confirmation or denial yet. So please don't blame me.

[camera]

Okay, I know things about cameras, not planes.

I understand that the video circulating seems to be a mobile phone filming a screen that's showing the footage of the plane exploding.

What I'd like to throw into the mix is just how the plane was filmed in the first place?

The perspective seems to be wrong for a plane that is at 33,000 ft filmed from the ground. Not to mention that kind of camera lens would be needed to film an aircraft that close at 6 miles up.

Your average camcorder, even one with even 100x digital zoom wouldn't look like that, nor would a broadcast camera with a real zoom.

If it's genuine, was that footage filmed from something also airborne?..

[sopwithnz]

@livesinafield:

do you know the details of the crashing plane it shows ? that would be helpful. I want it to be BS and agree with you. But no-one so far can source the footage. ...

@oleostrut ... understand, thx. no need for more.

[Sober Lark]

Syntax, I have no worries about flight security on flights out of Europe. What worries me are the return flights.

[fairflyer]

We're any of the passengers actually Ukranian nationals rather than Russian? Or had dual citizenship?

[puffyflyer]

We're any of the passengers actually Ukranian nationals rather than Russian? Or had dual citizenship?

3 pax were Ukranian

[lowca]

Set by Russians passengers, who checked their baggage in, got their boarding passes, but never boarded.

And I was always told, that if I do not show at plane after getting boarding pass, my luggage will be thrown off.
When this rule was cancelled?

[A0283]

In general, internationally, if a possible bomb becomes the main lead, then the safety investigation will take second seat to a criminal investigation. Does somebody know which Egyptian authority should take over from the (safety) accident investigators if it becomes a criminal investigation. And how the safety investigation will be subordinated 'under' that.

Is there for instance a special (military) police authority, which will get assistance from the military (specialists). Next to getting support from foreign labs and specialists as is usual in these cases.

[KaptinK]

Respectfully, because I am not a professional pilot or even a private pilot (yet) but I reckon to know more about aviation, and take more of an interest, than the average joe; my first post and hopefully not last.

ILS27LEFT: I had a quick look on YT and could only find one video, which appears to be the same as I watched the other day. It shows a dirty great missile - though not actually being fired. It also appears to show smoke from the tail of the aircraft struck; are missiles not heat-seeking and therefore more likely to strike an engine? Or proximity exploding and therefore not likely to create a single impact point right at the tail as appears to be the case here? And why would black smoke emerge from the tail of an airliner anyway? And would a missile that size not in any case inflict considerably more damage than a) the video shows and b) is evidenced by the wreckage? (I also read in an earlier post about light being on the wrong side, but I have to say I can't tell. And where are the con trails pre-strike?)

Given these observations and the lack of any missile launch/flight trail observed by IR satellites and the fact that IS in that area are not believed to have the tech, the SAM idea has to be a non-starter. Which immediately rubbishes the video I found - though admittedly I don't know its source - which implies a connection between said dirty great missile and the downing of an aircraft.

So, discounting a SAM, as I think is consensus anyway, the other option is a bomb. Seems to me there are three ways to detonate it:
a. pressure/altitude
b. timer
c. remote from the ground.

Now, in order to film this event the camera would have to be extremely close to the flight path.

For a. they'd have had to be directly under the aircraft just as the nominated altitude was reached, possibly needing to know QNH at that point? Implausible.
For b. they'd have had to be directly under the aircraft just as the timer reached its appointed moment. Implausible, given the unpredictability of actual departure time, weather and winds, routing, etc.
For c. they'd have had to be directly under the flight path (how hard is this to predict within a margin of 2-3 miles? I don't know but I'd imagine quite tricky) and known which flight was overhead and had the technology to detonate the bomb remotely from about 6 or 7 miles, which, again, I've read elsewhere is not necessarily easy. For mine, also implausible.

Alternatively, there was a whole network of IS cameramen with remote detonators stationed all over the desert, waiting... Naaah; implausible.

IMHO this video cannot be of the downed Metrojet because of the implausibility of actually being in place to film it at exactly the right moment. Yet they haven't disowned it, or even stopped it being released as they surely would have done if they had indeed brought it down with a bomb but NOT filmed it and if, as they say, they will release 'how we did it' later. Seems to me IS actually had nothing to do with it. I'm still on the side, supported by the evidence in the wreckage, of some sort of mechanical or structural problem.

Or what am I missing?

And condolences to those who lost family and friends in the tragedy. I hope those on board didn't suffer.

[Redlands]

Is it 'factual', that an owner of checked luggage did not board, or just another rumor?

[autoflight]

Given the minimum known circumstances, a good guess would be more than 50% chance that the breakup of the aircraft was the result of a technical malfunction involving the VS / HS and the pressure bulkhead.

[Etud_lAvia]

@The Sultan:

One common misperception is that FDR's record real time. Before digital they may have, but now the data supplier or the actual recorder buffers the data before writing it to memory. I have heard as long as the last two minutes can be lost.

I don't have data to disprove this, so I suppose it must be considered possible... but not plausible!

In numerous accident investigations, the last recorded moments of flight data parameters proved to be of great interest and value. Probably, the companies that make DFDRs are well aware of this. Certainly, accident investigation committees (such as the US NTSB) would protest vehemently against a large data loss when an FDR is "knocked out."

I don't have time at the moment to review the FAA CFRs for flight data recorders, but they are pretty thorough and probably include some maximum duration of data permitted to be lost on disconnection. As far as my web search disclosed, actual durations of lost data on disconnection are less than two seconds.

As to "the supplier" of data, in modern fly-by-wire ships like the lost A381, this is an AFDX digital buss operating at 10 megabits / second (minimum). In the case of a disconnect, the last frame may be lost, but this is a matter of milliseconds at most.
________________________________________________________

What you heard about loss of as much as two minutes is true ... but NOT about FDRs! Quick-access recorders (QARs), intended for use in airline operations and quality analysis, are NOT designed as an aid to accident investigation. For example, CVRs and FDRs are hardened against violent impact, extreme heat, and submersion ... QARs are not. I found an accident report saying that a QAR lost two minutes of data because of its buffering.

[Old Boeing Driver]

The rule was never cancelled.

Things can get done in that part of the world for a few dollars/pounds/dinars.

There were mulitple discussions earlier in this thread about lax security at Sharm.

[sopwithnz]

@oleostrut ... thx but that's not the crashing plane footage I was asking about, sorry. Obviously the wrong plane.

But I was asking livesinafield who states the so-called Isis video is BS .. I was asking him if he could provide details of the crashing plane in said video. I want someone to prove it's false, I really do.

[Silver Pegasus]

That video is pretty obviously not real or not from this incident. The angles are all wrong for that height, the poor quality is telling of a CGI mock up, the explosion is totally bizarre in its nature, smoke a bit strange how it starts straight away so thickly (think about it) and going by the debris alone, no way it would be such a large fireball, it would show up on any rear part of the aircraft in fire damage and soot. It looks like an iPhone filming a tv screen going by the landscape to then portrait change in the second clip.

In such a desolate area a small shockwave & ir signature would be picked up by the US/Israelis. So it shouldn't be assumed it was a big explosion that they detected and we already know it wouldn't need to be to bring down a pressurised airliner.

Also the bodies examined have shown no evidence of explosion, evidence of death by fireball or anything suggesting a terror attack. No residue either.

The bomb would have had to been pretty small to not be picked up on even the most lax security checks. Unless.. rumours of it being baggage/loading staff themselves.. But until any media confirm this it is all speculation.

Then there is the issue of how would ISIL know exactly where the plane would be, even using FR24 which is far from accurate in real time or a small route change or anything really and they would be too far away to see. Even if it were real, which it isn't. The folk filming could have easily been the first on scene way before any military or the like to take advantage of that, seing the reports of 20 miles from incident to impact and took images of the crash site to use as propaganda.. Strangely they have not.

No positive on explosive residue as of yet so even talking about a bomb is still hypothetical. Just because David Cameron says it may have been doesn't mean much.

British, Egyptian, Russian and USA air investigator experts have been there testing, nothing about there being bomb residue or fireball damage released. Shrapnel could easily be from in air fuel explosions ie wings detaching or plane parts raining down after initial impact.

Has a passenger list and with nationalities been released yet? It was quickly after the Malaysian incidents.

[silvertate]

And I was always told, that if I do not show at plane after getting boarding pass, my luggage will be thrown off. When this rule was cancelled?


It has not been cancelled. But some regions are more diligent than others. For example, somewhere in that very region we had to search for and take off two bags, because of a no-show. Four minutes later:

Ground: "Ok, bags are off"
Flight: "Hmmm. How did you manage that, without opening the hold...?" :ugh:

Silver

[lowca]

Things can get done in that part of the world for a few dollars/pounds/dinars.

Old Boeing Driver, with all due respect.

I can easily imagine various 'laxes' - at the airport security level.
But this would mean serious security mistake from the flight crew. Too serious, I think, to be considered.

[Back at NH]

Just been revisiting the report into PA103 over Lockerbie. Interesting reading in terms of effects and break up sequences. The following is very similar:

CVR
It was possible to establish that a loud sound was heard on the CVR cockpit area microphone channel at (19:01:50) +/- 1 second. The tape record ended, at (19:02:50) +/- 1 second, with a sudden loud sound followed almost immediately by the cessation of the recording.
FDR
Decoding and reduction of the data from the accident flight showed that no abnormal behaviour of the data sensors had been recorded and that the recorder had simply stopped at (19:02:51) +/- 1 second

[HarryMann]

As EZY9022 and TCX270 are on approach to LCA, it's amazing that LCA can handle all the unscheduled arrivals, but SSH apparently can't. Funny that. Where will TOM898 end up..? Let me think... Egyptians not being difficult, of course not, how could anyone conclude that?!

We hear suggestions that CVR is badly damaged and possibly unrecoverable and that the FDR stopped recording just before whatever happened, happened. Wouldn't that be convenient...(for whom?)

6 days of Russia saying there's no evidence of a bomb, criticising the UK very strongly yesterday for suspending flights, not engaging with them, now Russia halts all flight to Egypt. Funny that.

SSH security widely considered to be a shambles, but now the toughest in the world...overnight. Of course it is.

Agenda anyone?

Will we ever get a definitive answer as to what happened? Now I doubt it very much.

Good god man... Is it even a week yet? This is aviation not some silly TV drama!
This is no place for faux cynicism and conspiracy theories...

[wonkazoo]

First- my apologies in advance for what will be a long post.

I have an aviation background (`4400hrs in fixed and rotary wing AC) and an engineering background. I’ve been following this story for a few days, and noodling on the evidence we’ve been presented with. With the hysteria surrounding the possibility of a bomb I thought it might be time to share whatever wisdom I have. (Or don‘t have!!)

There is a video that I am fairly sure everyone has seen already but just in case it can be seen here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Vv_kXAFa_P8 The video shows in close-up HD the failure points of the rear fuselage, from both sides and from front and back. Others have already commented on this failure, but I don’t think anyone here has really laid out what we are looking at- and why it argues pretty strongly for an empennage failure of some sort.

As can be seen clearly in that video the following statements can be made:

1. The upper half of the fuselage failed under tension. (Look at the rivet line where the skin tore- you can see the stretching and scallop line between the rivets, as well as the missing paint that could not remain adhered to the elongating metal. Additionally the stringer failures show that they too failed under tension, with the angle of the failure indicating generally that the rear section was rotating downward with a tremendous amount of force.
2. The lower half of the fuselage in the same area was torn beginning at roughly the halfway point of the fuselage- where the metal would be under compression as a result of the failure described in #1. This failure was with somewhat less force, and based on the tear line the movement of the tail was downward as it separated from the aircraft.
3. The horizontal stabilizer is completely gone. It appears (but is not certain) that the mounting bulkhead for the stabilizer jackscrew may be in an upward position, possibly indicating an upward moving departure/failure.
4. The vertical stabilizer is only present in front of the rudder and shows sign of a violent tearing failure slightly in front of the rudder attachment points.
5. The APU is gone- in fact pretty much everything aft and below the rear hinges for the horizontal stabilizer has been disappeared from the airplane.

Take those facts and it is reasonable to make a few simple conclusions.

1. There was a tremendous quasi-symmetrical downward force applied to the tail of the aircraft- of enough violence to literally tear the skin in front of the bulkhead apart.
2. The failure of the aircraft fuselage in front of the bulkhead was the result of something else happening- it was caused by clearly evident physical application of a bending force. For a variety of reasons this force could not have been applied from either inside the AC or from anywhere in front of the failure point.
3. The only possible thing that could apply such symmetrical force aft of the failure point is the horizontal stabilizer.
4. The only way the horizontal stabilizer could provide such loading and such a consequent bending force so quickly is if it failed at the front hinge-pin/mounting point, and presumably rotated leading edge downward.
5. If the HS failed upwards it would explain the missing APU and rudder as well.

This post is not intended to address the actual cause(s) of why the airplane catastrophically failed, but CNN is now reporting that they are “certain” that it was brought down by a bomb. If you are going to argue that a bomb brought it down you are going to have to account for the incredible longitudinal bending force that was applied to the tail- which as far as I can resolve could only have beencaused by a failure of the front attach point of the HS.

Could someone have placed a bomb under or around the HS jackscrew assembly?? Absolutely. Could a bottle of whiskey filled with C4 inside the pressure hull cause the HS to fail so catastrophically?? No idea, but since they are now suggesting that it definitively is a bomb that brought down the aircraft I look forward to discovering the chain of events that led to the horrible incident- and the evidence as indicated above. (mainly because for the moment I cannot connect the two scenarios.)

Just my .02 as always,
dce

[Bertie Bonkers]

FWIW, when this video first appeared on Twitter, several commenters suggested it was video game footage filmed from a tv screen with a phone camera to give it an authentic 'hand held' feel.

[HarryMann]

Lockerbie...So 1 minute from first unusual/loud sound to (possibly) the whole aircraft breaking up?
9 miles about 15 km.

[Etud_lAvia]

Some questions have arisen here concerning the seating layout, etc. (e.g., was row 9 an exit row?)

I have been especially curious about the aft layout, because it seems that among jets in the A320 family some operators have no lavatories at the rear, some have 2, some have numerous, and so on.

This is purported to be the layout of the lost Metrojet (see NOTE below!):

http://s4.stc.all.kpcdn.net/f/4/image/91/27/1022791.jpg

It comes from this article (http://www.spb.kp.ru/daily/26454/3324698/) giving the passenger manifest, in the Saint Petersburg edition of Komsomol'skaya Pravda.
______________________________

As to why I have been curious about the cabin configuration ... like others on this thread, I felt that visual condition of the upper interior panel of the aft-most right-hand exit door is strongly suggestive of pitting caused small irregular projectiles at extreme high velocity, as may result from a high-explosive blast.

Assuming such fragments to travel in nearly straight lines, the cabin geometry would determine the range of locations at which an explosion could have caused the apparent pitting.

On the basis of the cabin configuration shown above, it would seem that if the pitting were indeed caused by an explosion, then that explosion must have occurred in the galley area, or one of the aft-most lavatories.
______________________________

NOTE: Kulverstukas has since posted that the diagram above shows the cabin configuration for a different Russian airline, NOT Metrojet. He also reports that someone who recently flew Metrojet told him that there are only two aft lavatories, whereas the diagram shows three. Despite some searching, I sill haven't found such a diagram known to accurately represent the lost Airbus.

[HarryMann]

Now being stated that a loud sound 'CAN' be heard on the Metrojet CVR

[mpprh]

"And I was always told, that if I do not show at plane after getting boarding pass, my luggage will be thrown off.
When this rule was cancelled?"

It has happened to me by accident. I spent too long on the phone between check in and boarding and missed the flight, but my luggage didn't.

[txl]

This from France 24:

The cockpit voice recorder (CVR) of the Russian plane that crashed in Egypt has confirmed there was an explosion on board Metrojet Airbus A321, French media reported Friday, citing an expert source.

Data from the CVR that was retrieved from the crash site in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula has revealed that there was an explosion on board the flight, reported French weekly Le Point, quoting an unnamed expert.

AFP reports the same, quoting an unnamed source close to the investigation.

[Bertie Bonkers]

AFP reports the same, quoting an unnamed source close to the investigation.

Though that's not necessarily corroboration if France24 source from AFP.

[sopwithnz]

Egypt will hold a press conference on Saturday regarding last week’s Russian plane crash in the Sinai Peninsula, the government announced Friday. The press conference is scheduled for 5 p.m. Cairo time (10 a.m. Eastern). Egypt’s minister of civil aviation and the chairman of the commission of inquiry into the Metrojet crash will be present. Egypt is leading the investigation, as the crash happened on its territory.


Egypt to Talk Plane Crash on Saturday - The Daily Beast (http://www.thedailybeast.com/cheats/2015/11/06/egypt-to-talk-plane-crash-on-saturday.html?via=newsletter&source=CSPMedition)

[OldnGrounded]

Egypt’s Dismissal of Terrorism in Russian Plane Crash Creates a Rift (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/07/world/middleeast/egypt-russian-plane-crash-investigation.html?_r=0)

[. . . ]

The widening chasm between Egypt and the world, some say, recalls an earlier crash, in 1999, when EgyptAir Flight 990 (http://www.nytimes.com/2002/03/22/us/report-finds-co-pilot-at-fault-in-fatal-crash-of-egyptair-990.html) plunged into the ocean off the coast of Nantucket Island. Although American investigators said flight records pointed to the decisions of an Egyptian pilot, the Egyptian government blamed a malfunction in the Boeing airplane, and 17 years later the Egyptian-American dispute over the cause is still unresolved.

In that case, the Egyptian investigation was cloaked in mystery and, critics say, politicized from that start.

“I don’t anticipate the Egyptian investigation here to be any more transparent than their work on EgyptAir 990,” James E. Hall, the former head of the National Transportation Safety Board (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/n/national_transportation_safety_board/index.html?inline=nyt-org) who oversaw that investigation, said in an interview.


The desires of Egypt’s political leaders to minimize the threat of terrorism would almost certainly set the course of its investigators, he said. “The air safety investigators in Egypt are under the thumb of the government,” he said, “and I don’t think that has changed.”


[. . .]



Under international aviation rules, representatives from France, Ireland, Russia and Germany are included in the official committee investigating the crash because of various connections to the plane or the flight, and European officials briefed on the inquiry say others in the committee have urged the Egyptians to disclose more.

But the rules give the Egyptians control over any public statements, and so far Egypt has rebuffed admonitions to disclose any preliminary details of what they may have learned, including whether explosive residue had been detected, the pattern of burn marks on the wreckage or on human remains, or of whatever may have been gleaned from the plane’s flight-recording devices.

More (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/07/world/middleeast/egypt-russian-plane-crash-investigation.html?_r=0)

[Pontius Navigator]

OTOH, at Larnaca two drugged pax were denied boarding at the aircraft. They were returned to the terminal and we were delayed while their bags were offloaded.

The location of the bags w as known and delay minimal.

[txl]

Originally Posted by txl
AFP reports the same, quoting an unnamed source close to the investigation.
Though that's not necessarily corroboration if France24 source from AFP.

You're right, Bertie, it wouldn't be. France 24 refers to Le Point which also sources from AFP. Heres the story:

Black box confirms explosion on Russian plane, says French media (http://www.france24.com/en/20151106-black-box-explosion-russia-plane-crash-le-point-egypt)

[RatherBeFlying]

If the tailplane came loose from the jackscrew, there would be a very short interval before breakup where various flight parameters would depart from norm.

An explosion that severed the data cable(s) to the recorders would result in recorded parameters being normal to end of recording.

I would expect it would take a reasonably intact fuselage for enough leverage for the tailplane to be ripped out, to say nothing of the forces necessary to free the tailplane from the jackscrew:confused: