BREAKING NEWS: airliner missing within Egyptian FIR

[ODGUY]

Egypt loses contact with passenger plane over Sinai
(http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/31/us-egypt-crash-idUSKCN0SP06V20151031)
Egyptian air traffic control lost contact with a civilian airliner carrying 212 people shortly after it took off from the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh to head to Russia, aviation sources said on Saturday.

The sources said the passenger plane was mainly carrying Russian tourists and that a search was underway.

Security sources in the Sinai Peninsula confirmed reports that an aircraft was missing.

(Writing by Lin Noueihed; editing by Susan Thoms)

[Bigpants]

Egypt loses contact with passenger plane over Sinai: sources | Reuters (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/31/us-egypt-crash-idUSKCN0SP06V20151031)

Aljazeera saying situation not clear, conflicting report from Egyptian ATC.

[ODGUY]

Russina autorities are confirming that contact has been lost with a russian airliner that was over the Sinai.

According the al jazeera.

[ORAC]

By Staff writer Al Arabiya NewsSaturday, 31 October 2015

A Russian civilian plane carrying 224 people crashed in Sinai on Saturday, the Egyptian Prime Minister said, amid earlier conflicting reports that the plane was safely continuing its journey.

Egyptian air traffic control lost contact with the Airbus A-321, operated by Russian airline Kogalymavia, shortly after it took off from the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh to head to Russia, aviation sources told Reuters news agency.

The sources said the passenger plane was mainly carrying Russian tourists.

Security sources in the Sinai Peninsula confirmed reports that an aircraft was missing. But in a conflicting statement, Egypt's air accident chief had said that the missing passenger plane on its way to Russia had safely left Egyptian airspace and made contact with Turkish air traffic control.

"The ... Russian airline had told us that the Russian plane we lost contact with is safe and that it has contacted Turkish air traffic control and is passing through Turkish skies now," Ayman al-Muqaddam, the head of the central air traffic accident authority in Egypt, said in a statement.

But local Egyptian media reported the plane had crashed in Sinai, a claim later confirmed by the PM.

A Russian aviation authority source confirmed that radar contact was lost with the passenger jet, according to RIA news agency.

The source said the aircraft is an Airbus A-321 operated by Russian airline Kogalymavia and that it was carrying 224 passengers and crew. The source added that radar contact was lost in Cyprus' airspace.

[With Reuters]

Last Update: Saturday, 31 October 2015 KSA 10:54 - GMT 07:54

[fox niner]

ISIS /al Qaeda lookalikes are running the show in the Sinai Peninsula.
If it is shot down by them, we are in for a rough ride....

[SOPS]

If it has crashed in the Sinai, isn't there a lot of bad guys there with manpads?

[JCviggen]

According to FR it got up to FL330 so that makes manpads unlikely I reckon. Last data point it was back down to 28 and change, if accurate.

[ATC Watcher]

intitial report said :'Shortly after take off " would indicate a low altitude. But if Flight radar is to be trusted, it shows the "problem" occurring a FL330 followed by an extremely fast descent ...last reply FL280 .

.ISIS /al Qaeda lookalikes are running the show in the Sinai Peninsula.
If it is shot down by them, we are in for a rough ride....

Oh boy, yes... This could turn very ugly..

[porterhouse]

ISIS /al Qaeda lookalikes are running the show in the Sinai Peninsula.
Not smack dab in the middle of Sinai, it is empty desert there, the aircraft was already quite high.

[markov]

Two further Russian flights (ORB508 and H59222) just left SSH for VKO on similar headings. Obviously not too concerned about a high altitude shootdown threat.

[Lancman]

"The source said the aircraft is an Airbus A-321 operated by Russian airline Kogalymavia and that it was carrying 224 passengers and crew. The source added that radar contact was lost in Cyprus' airspace."
No part of the Nicosia FIR is over the Sainai

[Propolis]

"A source at Sharm El-Sheikh Airport told RIA Novosti the pilot of the missing plane requested a change of course, saying the jet would have to land in Cairo."
does not sound like a missile to me....

[CSman]

SKY NEWS reporting contact made in Turkish airspace,who is correct? who Knows

[ETOPS]

You can see it on Flight Radar 24 play back - flight number KGL9268

Registration EI-ETJ Airbus A321

[Kulverstukas]

http://img.planespotters.net/photo/537000/950/ei-etj-metrojet-airbus-a321-231_PlanespottersNet_537013.jpg

[log0008]

You can also watch the play back here:

lV1z1vekfWE

[Plastrio]

FR24 clearly shows it was going down...

EI-ETJ - Aircraft info and flight history - Flightradar24 (http://www.flightradar24.com/data/airplanes/ei-etj/#7d986d3)

[olasek]

The source added that radar contact was lost in Cyprus' airspace."
Egyptian prime minister stated the aircraft crashed in Sinai - at this point, unless a better source emerges, I would rather believe him.

[Kulverstukas]

Russian media said that place was found near Al Arish and that police already located crash site.

[Mo122]

Guys it my first post but I've always been reading the forums. I am from Egypt and I confirm that search and rescue team has been dispatched to the area and in search for it.

[vhogb]

Flightradar24 just tweeted some raw data. Note first pic,

I guess: time, lat, long, altitude, airspeed, ??, ??

Small drop in altitude, large drop in speed (if that's what it is) in last minutes.

https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/660368957681958912

hth,

GB

[Mo122]

Confirmed and located in hasna area in the middle of Sinai

[Kulverstukas]

RIA writes that source said that pilot reports engine malfunction and asked for diverting to Cairo

[HeartyMeatballs]

I wouldn't read too much into the request for a return/diversion. Recently news reports often report this when in fact it is not true. Anyway a dual engine flame out with miles and miles of unpopulated terrain VMC in day light should have a happy ending. If anything you've got 10-15 minutes. Plenty of time to get a mayday and change your squark.

[Mars Attacks]

The claim of falling at 1828.8ms is just plain idiotic.

That about 6,500 kilometers per hour. Or 3,500knots. Um.. no.

[Mike-Bracknell]

People mentioning the 6000fpm drop, have you noticed the 3200fpm climb just before it and the 93kts airspeed reported at circa FL300

[Kulverstukas]

Anyone have the data on engine make / type fitted to this particular aircraft?

EI-ETJ Airbus A321-231 Metrojet Y220 2x IAE V2533-A5 01-05-2012

tfd, leased from AerCap

Crashed 31-10-2015 as flight KGL9268 enroute Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt to St. Petersburg, Russia over Sinai peninsula about 25mins after take-off
(c) planespotters.net

[Continental-520]

1A6349
HECC CAIRO FIR ---------------------1A6349/15 SECURITY EGYPT, NORTHERN SINAI PENINSULA, POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS SITUATION CONTENT: GERMANY ADVISES ALL GERMAN OPERATORS NOT TO PLAN AND CONDUCT FLIGHTS BELOW FL260 DUE TO HAZARDOUS SITUATION IN THE AIRSPACE OF EGYPT, REGION NORTHERN SINAI (FIR CAIRO). POTENTIAL RISK TO AVIATION OVERFLYING THIS AREA BELOW FL260 AND TAKE OFF / LANDING AT ALL AIRPORTS FROM DEDICATED ANTI-AVIATION AND GROUND TO GROUND WEAPONRY. OPERATORS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO TAKE POTENTIAL RISK INTO ACCOUNT IN THEIR RISK ASSESSMENT AND ROUTEING DECISION. AFFECTED AREA: AREA WITHIN N311400E322200 - N294000E324000 - N293000E345400 N312000E341200 - N311400E322200 EMERGENCY SITUATIONS: IN AN EMERGENCY THAT REQUIRES IMMEDIATE DECISION AND ACTION FOR THE SAFETY OF THE FLIGHT, THE PILOT IN COMMAND MAY DEVIATE FROM THIS NOTAM TO THE EXTENT REQUIRED BY THAT EMERGENCY.

And

1V42/15 HAZARDOUS SITUATION IN EGYPTIAN AIRSPACE IN NORTHERN SINAI GOVERNATE WITHIN THE AREA BOUNDED BY 311400N 322200E - 294000N 324000E - 293000N 345400E - 312000N 341200E - 311400N 322200E (CAIRO FIR, SINAI PENINSULA). POTENTIAL RISK TO AVIATION OVERFLYING THIS AREA AT LESS THAN 25,000FT AGL FROM DEDICATED ANTI-AVIATION WEAPONRY. OPERATORS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO TAKE THIS POTENTIAL RISK INTO ACCOUNT IN THEIR RISK ASSESSMENTS AND ROUTEING DECISIONS. CONTACT UK DEPARTMENT FOR TRANSPORT (DFT) (+44) (0)20 7944 3260 OR (+44) (0)207 944 5999 OUT OF HOURS 14-12-0274/AS6.
SFC-UNL

:(

[WHBM]

Big commercial load and a long range flight for an A321, so presumably at maximum gross. Top of climb. Coffin corner ?

[HeartyMeatballs]

Yes, eye witnesses who will say 'the plane was on fire', the 'engines were misfiring' and e pilot was 'struggling to control it'.

It's worrying how quickly the Egyptians have gone from saying the plane is in Turkey, then it was down in Cyprus now just an hour it was a technical problem and it was not a bomb and it was not shot down. It was going in a straight line. If it was serious and they were diverting urgently then I'd imagine a turn to be made in the direction of SSH or CAI.

I doubt they'd get into coffin corner without the plane shouting at them to do something about it, not to mention both PFDs would be telling a rather unhappy story long before coffin coroner is reached. The MCDU will also tell them the max alt, planned at the optimum too. I very much down they'd go sailing throu REC MAX. The plane will be struggling with the climb, and will make it plainly obvious that it's not happy.

[PAXfips]

RT saying 31,000ft, FR24 indicating even 33 - NOTAM for below FL260? :suspect:

[foxmoth]

I note the news is also saying they did not check in on the radio with Cyprus - no surprise there as they were probably over half an hour from calling the Cypriots:rolleyes:

[MarcJF]

Sky News are reporting survivors in a section of the aircraft?

[Continental-520]

RT saying 31,000ft, FR24 indicating even 33 - NOTAM for below FL260?

MH17 was well above the notam 'd levels, too.

520.

[PBY]

The aircraft was around level 300. It was speed that was 400K (ground speed),
which dropped. It was never anywhere close over max level

https://twitter.com/hashtag/7K9268?src=hash

[ORAC]

TRA, he's correct in what he says; I am watching Sky News and that's what they are reporting - not that I believe it for a moment.

[PAXfips]

RT says on https://www.rt.com/news/320225-plane-crash-russian-egypt/
09:59 GMT Voices of trapped passengers were reportedly heard in one section of the Russia-bound Airbus 320, according to an officer at the scene.

[newjourno]

Sky News Newsdesk ‏@SkyNewsBreak 9m9 minutes ago
Update - Reuters: officers at the scene of the Russian plane crash say voices of trapped passengers could be heard in a section of the plane
180 retweets 30 favorites


My instinct is that report is probably inaccurate; really hope I'm wrong.

BTW, my handle may be "newjourno" (and that was a long time ago); it would be more accurately "ex-journo".

[Serenity]

EI registered
Irish?? Does it make it an EASA investigation too??

[MainDude]

A321 full load would have been fine at FL320 (32,000 feet) so that's probably not the issue.

Angle of Attack probes probably also not an issue in a dry climate. Sand damage or poor maintenance maybe - but that should have shown up as a problem earlier in the flight.

Data from the transponder (as shown on flightradar24.com) shows climb, loss of speed, then dive. The Airbus normal law should protect the aircraft against a stall like this unless the normal laws fail to work at the critical moment they're needed!

The same has happened in several Airbus accidents, yet not enough has been done to change the way pilots are trained to handle this type of scenario. How many more more crashes will it take for Airbus, the regulators and airline training departments to wake up?

[AndoniP]

On the Sky website it does say

An Egyptian security officer at the scene said the aircraft is completely destroyed and most of those on board are feared dead. (my bold)

[Wellfan]

To be fair, Sky News are reporting that they think there are survivors, its now on the ticker tape on the bottom. They did say it was a single source

[DaveReidUK]

People mentioning the 6000fpm drop, have you noticed the 3200fpm climb just before it

Looking at the revised FR24 data linked in post #40, that reported temporary excursion to FL330 is almost certainly spurious.

[DaveReidUK]

EI registered
Irish?? Does it make it an EASA investigation too??

No, the State of registry only has responsibility for an investigation if the occurrence takes place outside the territory of any State.

The AAIU's status will be that of an accredited representative to the investigation.

[IcePack]

Wondering the nationality of the flight crew. Whilst they may have a different attitude to risk, Russian crews are some of the best handling crew I have had the privalidge to meet. So loss of control would be be a surprise.

[A_Van]

In the Russian media it was announced that the crew was Russian, with both pilots having "great experience". However, in some forums it was written that the captain did not fly 321 for a long time....

[White Knight]

Loss off control by Russian pilots Icepack? So what caused an Aeroflot 310 to plunge into the Siberian countryside at an incredible rate of descent?
Or how about the Perm 737 crash?

Nothing against the Russian fliers myself - we've seen LOC all too often by any nationalities recently but I just have to question Icepack's objectivity...

[glad rag]

....with the tragic loss of life that has only just occurred it must be very tempting for PPRuNe just to say to hell with this and block all "discussion", as a mark of respect, for 48 hours or so....

[Mo122]

Confirmed : black box found

[Engineless]

Sky News now reporting that Egyptian authorities have found the black box flight recorders.

[Citation2]

Abnormal V alpha prot?

[aidey_f]

Beeb are reporting wreckage, black boxes found. Also bodies of pax in seats.

[buzz boy]

My experience of Egyptian ATC is that it is very poor, it is often very difficult to establish contact and a response can be "erratic". If indeed the crew were trying to declare an emergency it may well have been difficult due to congested and poorly managed ATC frequencies.

[The Ancient Geek]

BBC are reporting (reliable ?) information now that rescuers are on site.
The aircraft is in 2 parts, there was a fire in the rear portion.
Rescuers are recovering bodies still strapped to their seats from the front portion.
The CVR and FDR have been recovered,

This implies a controlled forced landing which in turn implies a double engine failure. On the basis of this very limited information I woud be asking questions about the fuel supply.

Until the recorders are decoded everything is, of course, speculation and at this early stage the reports which we have are still suspect.

[fullforward]

This is empty BS.
A power off emergency landing is highly survivable. Done successfully numerous times.
Futhermore it would take at least 15 minutes do glide from FL310 to ground, plenty of time for mayday calls, position information etc.
This was an uncontrolable high speed dive. This is for sure.

It's so frustrating that 90% of the posts here are meaningless speculation.:confused:

[Kulverstukas]

This implies a controlled forced landing

With no communication and ADS-B signal stopped in air?

[HeartyMeatballs]

With a dual engine failure:
-there's time to get a mayday
-there's time to get a 7700 out
-you'll enter a fairly shallow descent if there's no fuel, a slightly steeper one if there is fuel in order to try a restart. There's no plunging involved like this plane.
-glide distance in still air will be about 70+ miles
-you'll be turning the aircraft away from high ground, this aircraft went straight on
-there are flat dried river beds in the area, no way would you head for the hills for a forced landing

As it stands, there's no evidence of any of these occurring and in my opinion there's no evidence of a dual engine flame out.

We have the aircraft in two parts which to me suggests an inflight breakup. What caused that and wether it was internal or external is unclear at this time. I can find no evidence of severe weather and the plane won't just fly iteself into coffin corner with gay abandon like others have suggested so speculation about it being too heavy or above the max alt is pretty fruitless.

[b1lanc]

The AP is reporting "Russia's Investigative Committee, the country's top investigative body, has opened an investigation into the crash of a Russian passenger jet in Egypt's Sinai peninsula for possible violations of flight safety procedures.
Committee spokesman Sergei Markin made the announcement in a statement Saturday."

[log0008]

Reports now the pilot requested an emergency landing at El Arish airport

[Right Way Up]

Would be interested to know if this airline routinely carries dangerous goods.

[DaveReidUK]

With no communication and ADS-B signal stopped in air?

We don't know that ADS-B data stopped being sent, only that FlightRadar24 stopped receiving it, which isn't the same thing and may simply be a receiver range vs altitude issue.

This was uncontrolable high speed plunge. This is for sure.

Hard to avoid that conclusion. After allowing for the fact that FR24 populates some data items that it hasn't picked up, what's left indicates that shortly before data was lost the aircraft was descending at 15-20,000 fpm and a relatively low groundspeed.

[Kulverstukas]

No survivors

[PAXfips]

PAX manifest; 214 Russian, 3 Ukraine:
?????? ?????????? ???9268 ??????????????? ??????????? (http://www.mchs.gov.ru/operationalpage/Operativnaja_informacija/item/5216330/)

[winterymix]

Poor quality fuel? I'm guessing fuel from the same
source will be tested.

[fullforward]

Surprised by the big number of "crash investigators wannabes" that have nothing to do except posting an huge amount of ridiculous speculations!:ugh:

[aerotransport.org]

Same aircraft had a tail strike in 2001:

ASN Aircraft accident Airbus A321-231 F-OHMP Cairo International Airport (CAI) (http://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=20011116-0)

/A

[justanotherflyer]

@ Icepack:

Wondering the nationality of the flight crew. Whilst they may have a different attitude to risk, Russian crews are some of the best handling crew I have had the privalidge to meet. So loss of control would be be a surprise.

Having a "different attitude to risk" (how diplomatic of you...) is just as likely to lead to loss of control as diminished handling skills.

[flt001]

ITV(UK) Quoting Egyptian security forces as saying the plane crashed due to technical reasons.

Quite how well the Egyptian security forces are trained in aircraft accident investigation I'm not sure...

Initial exam suggests plane crashed 'due to technical fault' - ITV News (http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-10-31/initial-exam-suggests-plane-crashed-due-to-technical-fault/)

[fivegreenlight]

Tragic news.
I would think the Egytians will be keen to demonstrate this was not terrorist related and knowing how they tend to only tell you what you want to hear rather than fact, I'd be very cautious of any early diagnosis.

[andrasz]

8 hours on, a short summary of information from sources appearing to be credible:

Based on FR24 data flight was in a ~500fpm steady climb passing FL310 when at 04:13 UTC there appears to be a sudden drastic drop in airspeed accompanied by a ~6000fpm descent. Data ceases ~25 seconds after initial upset, with last recorded altitude of FL280 consistent with rate of descent data.

Wreckage was reportedly found in the Hassna area. Even if taken broadly, the location is 30-40km from LKP, inconsistent with last FR24 registered airspeed (implying a ~300kt airspeed at registered ROD).

Wreckage was reported to be found in two major sections. Latest reports say bodies are found in a 5km radius surrounding main wreckage. If true, this would confirm an in-flight breakup.

Aircraft has suffered a tailstrike 14 years ago with a previous operator which has caused substantial damage.

An Egyptian official is quoted saying that the plot contacted ATC reporting engine trouble, but these remain unverified from any credible source. Same official is quoted that the crash was due to 'technical reasons', again without any verification or further elaboration. For the present, neither statements may be considered credible.

Egyptian government sources were quick to deny the possibility of a SAM downing the aircraft, however other possible foul-play was not ruled out. Given that it would be in Egypt's best interest to do so, this lack of such response could be significant, as is the fact that the Egyptian PM together with several ministers headed to the Sinai to "oversee developments" soon after the wreckage was first reached.

On the other hand, no group has claimed responsibility for the accident in the first 8 hours, as it would have been expected in case of any terrorist action. Any such claims popping up now are clearly reactive and unfounded.

[The Ancient Geek]

1) It is foolish to rely on FR24, the sytem works by collecting data over the internet from amatuer ADSB receivers owned by enthusiasts and joining the dots. There are plenty of these stations in well populated areas but the chances of any reliable receiver data in the middle of an enormous desert are a tad slim. In these circumstances FR24 extrapolates (guesses) by extending the last known trajectory until it recieves a valid report or times out.
It is therefore not possible to derive a rate of decent from the last guessed postion and a single and possibly unreliable following report.

2) "Vanished from radar" does not imply a problem, it just means that the aicraft moved outside of the limited coverage range of a civilian airport radar.

3) Anyone who uses the word "Plunge" is either a tabloid journalist or one of their clueless readers. Best ignored.

[stuckgear]

I guess airport security in Egypt isn't up to western standards and you could bribe couple of people if you had enough money (which ISIS has)
Bribing may not be a requirement, there's a fair amount of adherents to the cause in the region.

Sharm was listed as a high risk location from ISIS terrorism earlier this year. Russia has just started engaging with ISIS in Syria. Now, this is circumstantial, of course, in relation to the destruction of the Russian operated A321.

Lets wait and see what a trusted investigation reveals from the FDR/CVR.

[LadyL2013]

In all of these sorts of events, there's a rush from terrorist groups to claim it.

I mean, it could be, but they claim falsely all the time.

[Vc10Tail]

Given the very emphatic NOTAM regarding the danger in the area why werent measures taken to detour the Airway tracks to keep traffic within Radar coverage?

The sudden and marked changes in flight condition due to the upset and possible structural failure at altitude are all more to do with some kind of catastrophic event.

Time will tell..but I suspect that NOTAM is somehow a relevant pointer even if geographically/altimetrically off the mark. That information might have been sourced from military intelligence apparatus.

As for those trying to incite panic stations no such military fall out will explode at the iron dude's dictate.That is no Syria.There are a number if nations in the vicinity of Sinai that will keep him in check.

[andrasz]

SIF (ISIS affiliate) is claiming responsibility


As a rule of thumb, no such claim should be considered valid if issued more than 1-2 hours after the actual event, and/or after the news have propagated through mass media.

[stuckgear]

Telegraph cites PPRUNE

13.17

According to the pilots’ online chatroom, Prune the pilot did report an engine malfunction. But at the same time pilots have also been warned of a potential terrorist threat in a Notice to Airmen:
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01817/quotes_1817837a.gif SECURITY EGYPT, NORTHERN SINAI PENINSULA, POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS SITUATION CONTENT: GERMANY ADVISES ALL GERMAN OPERATORS NOT TO PLAN AND CONDUCT FLIGHTS BELOW FL260 DUE TO HAZARDOUS SITUATION IN THE AIRSPACE OF EGYPT, REGION NORTHERN SINAI (FIR CAIRO). POTENTIAL RISK TO AVIATION OVERFLYING THIS AREA BELOW FL260 AND TAKE OFF / LANDING AT ALL AIRPORTS FROM DEDICATED ANTI-AVIATION AND GROUND TO GROUND WEAPONRY. OPERATORS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO TAKE POTENTIAL RISK INTO ACCOUNT IN THEIR RISK ASSESSMENT AND ROUTEING DECISION. AFFECTED AREA: AREA WITHIN N311400E322200 - N294000E324000 - N293000E345400 N312000E341200 - N311400E322200 EMERGENCY SITUATIONS: IN AN EMERGENCY THAT REQUIRES IMMEDIATE DECISION AND ACTION FOR THE SAFETY OF THE FLIGHT, THE PILOT IN COMMAND MAY DEVIATE FROM THIS NOTAM TO THE EXTENT REQUIRED BY THAT EMERGENCY.




Please all bear in mind that the media read this forum in an effort to fill column inches.

[andrasz]

It is foolish to rely on FR24, the sytem works by collecting data over the internet from amatuer ADSB receivers owned by enthusiasts and joining the dots. There are plenty of these stations in well populated areas but the chances of any reliable receiver data in the middle of an enormous desert are a tad slim. @TAG

While the second part of your comment is correct, the Sinai is far from an "enormous desert". While FR24 appears to be blocked in Egypt, Beer Sheeva/Eilat/Aqaba are all within 100nm of LKP, and Tel Aviv is under 200nm, the effective range of such amateur ADS-B receivers. FR24 data over the Sinai is likely to be reasonably valid.

If you look at FR24 there are several a/c over the Sinai being tracked in real time with good data right now, along the same routing as was taken by the accident flight.

[Mo122]

My report from Cairo , as driving in one of the main roads in Cairo I've seen not less than a 25 ambulances accompanied by police cars. I can confirm that some or all of the bodies are in Cairo now

[EnjoinThis]

Hi, all. Frequent lurker here. There's always a lot of noise after an incident, most of which is unhelpful. Among the unhelpful: (a) news updates - that's what BBC is for; (b) wild-assed speculation - Islamist SAMs, really?; (c) outrageous but easily-disprovable statements - bodies in seats claimed but no site photos; and (d) complaints about speculative rumor mongering.

What I find to be helpful are FACTS/rumor-mongering that calls on the unique knowledge-base of the folks here. For example: (1) Any INSIDE info from the relevant ATC? (2) Rumors as to how long until the authorities release/leak the relevant data traces? (3) Friends w/knowledge in USN/IDF? (4) SPECIFIC engine & repair history to this SPECIFIC airplane (i.e., more than "significant tail strike"); (5) experiential info w/relevant investigational authorities (are they corruptible? competent?); (6) real-life data w/r/t speculation (i.e., if mucky fuel is suspected, experience w/relevant vendors & airports); (7) flaws of commonly-sourced data reports (i.e., Flight24's dependence on x, y, z sources; ACARS, etc.); and (8) rampant speculation based on FACTS.

I may have a different take, but I'd rather be accurate than first-to-post. Speculation that's based on second-hand reporting by non-industry journalists is not only totem-pole hearsay, but it's also almost invariably wrong.

[FrequentSLF]

For the experts..

FR24 shows climbing ar 30k feet, constant speed of 400 knots, than sudden spike in altitude with a speed dropping, 32k and 100 knots...that it does not look as a lack of coverage of FR24, it seems a real info, if was estrapolated it would not show sudden variations.

It can be explain?

[andrasz]

@ FrequentSLF


FR24 is an amateur system, with limitations on data accuracy. I do not profess to be an expert, but my understanding is that the way the system works is it receives simultaneous data from a number of receivers in well covered areas, and retains data which match from a number of sources and drops the one that disagrees. In areas of sparse coverage this is not possible, and any data received from a single source is taken as valid. Errors may be introduced to the data for several reasons, especially if the receiver is near the range limit. Single spikes (like in this case) are almost always attributable to some data error, while constant data (no change whatsoever) is a sign of extrapolation.

[tubby linton]

Forget the video and look at the initial adsb data from Flightradar that has been posted on the aviation safety networks webpage:

Graphic - Aviation Safety Network (http://aviation-safety.net/photos/displayphoto.php?id=20151031-0&vnr=1&kind=G)

A stall, recovery and then a second stall

[JumpJumpJump]

Spot on.... Sticking to facts on a rumour network would make the site totallu unworkable.....

"A plane has crashed in xxxxx this thread is now closed until the official accident report is out" ....... Six months later "the report can be found at www.xxxxxxxxxx.c*m , this thread is now closed"

[PAXfips]

(RT.com)
German carrier Lufthansa and Air France-KLM have decided to avoid flying over the Sinai peninsula while they wait for clarity on what caused a Russian airliner carrying 224 passengers to crash in the area, spokeswomen for the carriers said on Saturday.

Any NOTAM updates while at it?

[noalign]

The vs data being linked shows 6000 down to 8000 up in 3 seconds. Them are some G's, or the static source was experiencing changing values.

[FDMII]

tubby linton, I wonder, what if we considered that at/after 06:12:57Z in the ASN image of the "vertical speed", (in quotes, because, as I think you know, this isn't data from the SSFDR), that the ADSB flight data might not be what actually occurred?

[Nemrytter]

The vs data being linked shows 6000 down to 8000 up in 3 seconds. Them are some G's.Such data is often wrong, flightradar have a history of releasing this type of questionable data (both for accident and non-accident flights) and, quite frankly, I wish they'd behave a bit more responsibly.

[stuckgear]

Forget the video and look at the initial adsb data from Flightradar that has been posted on the aviation safety networks webpage:

Graphic - Aviation Safety Network (http://aviation-safety.net/photos/displayphoto.php?id=20151031-0&vnr=1&kind=G)

A stall, recovery and then a second stall

It's worth pointing out that the data track shown there is for the last minute of recording, with the variations in about 30 seconds of a time frame.

Stall recover and enter a second stall in under 30 seconds, in an A321?

[tubby linton]

Flightradar have published a csv file of the data which can be found here. Obviously this will not be as accurate as the fdr data, but it does show trends of what may have happened.
Crash of Metrojet Flight 7K9268 | Flightradar24 Blog (http://www.flightradar24.com/blog/crash-of-metrojet-flight-7k9268/)
The recorded ground speed goes from 404 to 246 , increases and then falls to a last recorded value of 62.

[PC767]

Ground based terrorism?

Both Lufthansa and Air France have announced that they will not fly over the Sinai until further notice.

Have they received further information/briefings.

Knee jerk reaction?


And now BA are avoiding the area. It does raise the question, have security services briefed airlines and if so the reason would be rather obvious.

[stuckgear]

Flightradar have published a csv file of the data which can be found here. Obviously this will not be as accurate as the fdr data, but it does show trends of what may have happened.
Crash of Metrojet Flight 7K9268 | Flightradar24 Blog (http://www.flightradar24.com/blog/crash-of-metrojet-flight-7k9268/)
The recorded ground speed goes from 404 to 246 , increases and then falls to a last recorded value of 62. Just a rudimentary run through that data. you can see at some points a heading variation of 25 deg in a second. compare that to standard rate turn and we can get some idea of what forces were in play to the airframe, and indeed those contained within it following the cause of the departure.

[FDMII]

stuckgear;
Stall recover and enter a second stall in under 30 seconds, in an A321? I agree with your implied conclusion...no, I don't think this is a stall/secondary stall. We might say this could be "spurious data"...

tubby linton;
Obviously this will not be as accurate as the fdr data, No, and we don't know how FL24 creates the vertical speed data. If it is derived from P.Alt then it is only as good as the P.Alt parameter. A typical data frame on an A321 will have both inertial, recorded and perhaps GPS VSI parameters, (older data frames such as those installed on the B737 Classics derive vertical speed from P.Alt).
. . . but it does show trends of what may have happened. It may or may not, depending upon other, corroborating parameters which FL24 is incapable of presenting because ADSB doesn't have them. I would like to know what the cabin pressure and cabin rate-of-climb parameters have to say, for example.

[Back at NH]

Comparison of a more reliable MANPADS shootdown. AN30 in this case. Significantly different.

https://youtu.be/5Z7BCUEWQCg

[Nemrytter]

Just a rudimentary run through that data. you can see at some points a heading variation of 25 deg in a second. compare that to standard rate turn and we can get some idea of what forces were in play to the airframe, and indeed those contained within it following the cause of the departure.Once again, you are assuming that the FR24 data is accurate. Prior experience suggests that this is often not the case. Sometimes this is because FR24 fudges the data, more often it's because bad data is transmitted.

[Mark in CA]

The Russian airline whose plane crashed in the Sinai region on Saturday says the aircraft was in good shape and the pilot was experienced.

In a statement on its website, Moscow-based Metrojet says the A321 received required factory maintenance in 2014.

The statement identified the captain of the plane as Valery Nemov and said he had 12,000 air hours of experience, including 3,860 in A321s.

The Latest: Airline says crashed plane was in good shape (http://news.yahoo.com/latest-egypt-confirms-russian-plane-crashes-sinai-091807935.html)

[thcrozier]

They've used an algorithm to fit their curve to those points, but essentially you've got 8 sec of VS approaching -6,000; then 6 sec of VS approaching +4,000; then 8 sec of VS approaching -7,000; then 5 sec of VS approaching +8,000; and the data ends.

In that last oscillation the VS changes neg to pos by about 15,000 fpm (250 feet per sec) in 6 seconds.

A G-meter would show oscillations between about -.5 and +2.5 under those circumstances.

[stuckgear]

I agree with your implied conclusion...no, I don't think this is a stall/secondary stall. We might say this could be "spurious data"...Indeed. and an explosive event would of course produce a pressure wave in its propogation, which would be recorded by pressure reading instrumentation.

[CRUZer510]

Given the credibility of the Egyptian (Egyptair 990) and Russian (MH 370) air investigation teams, it may well be that the most authoritative facts and interpretations appear on this site or others like it. At this stage it is not possible to separate useless from useful speculation.

It seems to me that posts here after any major civilian crash fall into one of two groups: speculators, most of them well-meaning, trying to piece together an understanding of what happened as information becomes available; and scolders, who criticize the speculators for jumping to unjustified conclusions and ask them to stop doing so. Is it just me, or does the second group not sound like a bunch of Peeping Toms lecturing everybody else to put their clothes back on and pull the curtains?

[tubby linton]

Vertical speed data will be from the ADIRU.
Does anybody know the projected sector time for this flight?

[stuckgear]

The Russian airline whose plane crashed in the Sinai region on Saturday says the aircraft was in good shape and the pilot was experienced.

In a statement on its website, Moscow-based Metrojet says the A321 received required factory maintenance in 2014.

Seeing as the aircraft, as an asset, was owned by significant major lessor in the market, i have no reason to doubt that.

A prerequisite of lessors is that the aircraft residual value is protected by maintenance demands as set forth in the lessor terms.

[mbriscoe]

1) It is foolish to rely on FR24, the sytem works by collecting data over the internet from amatuer ADSB receivers owned by enthusiasts and joining the dots. There are plenty of these stations in well populated areas but the chances of any reliable receiver data in the middle of an enormous desert are a tad slim. In these circumstances FR24 extrapolates (guesses) by extending the last known trajectory until it recieves a valid report or times out.

Do they extrapolate? A line showing heading is displayed but the data used is of two types. The data actually transmitted by the aircraft and a position triangulated from several receiving points of the aircraft's radio transmissions.

[DaveReidUK]

Once again, you are assuming that the FR24 data is accurate. Prior experience suggests that this is often not the case. Sometimes this is because FR24 fudges the data, more often it's because bad data is transmitted.

Moreover, FR24 data is not synchronous, it's subject to whatever latency exists in the Internet connection between the enthusiast's receiver and the server.

That's particularly apparent in this instance, where the published data comes from 3 separate receivers, presumably in 3 different locations (see column 13 in the CSV file). Those clearly aren't time-synchronised, which is why we see wild variations of parameter values within the same second.

In other words, trying to construct a time-series with the data is fraught with problems. I'm very disappointed that ASN appears to have fallen into that trap with their dodgy graph.

[daikilo]

A metrojet A321 has just taken off from SSH and appears to be following a more westerly routing, followed by an EZY.

[henra]

... then 8 sec of VS approaching -7,000; then 5 sec of VS approaching +8,000; and the data ends.




The data just looks weird. How do you want to get from -7000fpm to +8000fpm at a GS of between 132 and 93kts (means roughly between 60 and 85kts IAS) ?
The data does not seem plausible at all.
Horizontal deceleration is also excessively high. From 400kts to 60kts in 22s.
Especially the initial deceleration from 400 to 340kts in just about two seconds without a clear trend in altitude change does not make much sense. At FL300 this is pretty surely still far above the stall (bar insane tailwind which I wouldn't expect in that area and flight direction).
From my armchair I have difficulties to fathom a force that would decelerate an airliner at that rate while matching the presented data.
Looking at this altogether I would consider the data spurious for whatever reason and don't think any conclusion can be really drawn from it.

[Simplythebeast]

Its now reported that the Egyption Aviation Minister has said that the crew did not report any technical issues despite earlier reports and nor did he request help or declare an emergency.

[Planeplotter support]

For what its worth , data from the Planeplotter network shows slightly different information than the web based plotters , however in situations such as this we never publish it , but always secure the data and submit it directly to the AAIB to pass on to the relevant country's investigators.


PP support , formerly uksatcomuk

[FDMII]

henra;
Looking at this altogether I would consider the data spurious for whatever reason and don't think any conclusion can be really drawn from it.
Agreed.

I would be examining the pressure bulkhead, first.

[roving]

Mention has been made of a previous tail strike.

This is the wiki report of the mid-air break-up of a China Airlines 747 in 2002. Described as the deadliest air disaster in Taiwanese history, the cause of which was metal fatigue consequent upon an inadequate repair following tailstrike damage which occurred 22 years earlier. The repair was not carried out in accordance with the Boeing Structural Repair Manual.

The break-up of the Boeing occurred some 20 minutes after take off whilst the aircraft was believed to be climbing to FL350.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Airlines_Flight_611

[thcrozier]

henra: Regarding Ground Speed, imagine a full loop; your ground speed will approach zero as your angle of travel with respect to the ground approaches vertical.

But as has been pointed out, there are many flaws in this data.

[Kulverstukas]

https://img-fotki.yandex.ru/get/15507/27652091.3c1/0_9b7bb_77a4a532_XL.jpg

[Sober Lark]

Just how effective is security at SSH?

[Sheba29]

Not one A318/A319/320/321 has been lost in the cruise until this event

Indonesia Air Asia QZ8501?

[Standard Toaster]

1) It is foolish to rely on FR24, the sytem works by collecting data over the internet from amatuer ADSB receivers owned by enthusiasts and joining the dots. There are plenty of these stations in well populated areas but the chances of any reliable receiver data in the middle of an enormous desert are a tad slim. In these circumstances FR24 extrapolates (guesses) by extending the last known trajectory until it recieves a valid report or times out.
It is therefore not possible to derive a rate of decent from the last guessed postion and a single and possibly unreliable following report.


What a load of BS. You clearly have absolutely no understanding how the system works.

The only instance where FR24 extrapolates the data is if you have the option active in your browser, it will do so for you, but that's it.
The data they posted is the data one or more of their receivers received. It's the RAW data, as broadcasted by the airplane.
If there is an error in the data, it's because the airplane was broadcasting erroneous data, not because FR24 extrapolated anything.

[Globally]

The "initial data" in this report reminded me of last year's crash of the A320 AirAsia flight in Indonesia, in which the "initial data" suggested 6,000 fpm, sudden climb, sudden descent, etc… although weather was a big factor in the case of AirAsia. But the two seem eerily similar in that they were fairly soon after reaching cruise or near-cruise altitude, then sudden high rates of descent, etc.., then uncontrolled descent and impact without explanation.

[ironbutt57]

something in the pitch control system of that airplane broke and rendered it uncontrollable...THS jackscrew maybe? Tail strike repair?..

[Lancair70]

I have a FR24 supplied receiver and a program to see the raw data it receives.

AFAIK, The aircraft transmits GPS position, groundspeed, heading, bank angle and an altitude, every second. Software calculates VS. FR receive all this data but only plot every 30sec or minute on the webpage.

Obviously bank angle isn't shown on FR24 but I can clearly see it on raw data analysis.

[tlbrown350]

The wreckage looks to be consistent with a flat stall/spin scenario.

This is consistent with the failure of some- or all flight control surfaces during cruise flight, including failure of the hydraulics. This has occurred in the past as a result of bulkhead failures /depressurization.

[henra]

henra: Regarding Ground Speed, imagine a full loop; your ground speed will approach zero as your angle of travel with respect to the ground approaches vertical.




How do you pull a loop with more or less constant altitude?

[auraflyer]

The data just looks weird. How do you want to get from -7000fpm to +8000fpm at a GS of between 132 and 93kts (means roughly between 60 and 85kts IAS) ?
The data does not seem plausible at all.
Horizontal deceleration is also excessively high. From 400kts to 60kts in 22s.
Especially the initial deceleration from 400 to 340kts in just about two seconds without a clear trend in altitude change does not make much sense. At FL300 this is pretty surely still far above the stall (bar insane tailwind which I wouldn't expect in that area and flight direction).
From my armchair I have difficulties to fathom a force that would decelerate an airliner at that rate while matching the presented data.

It would seem to match China Airlines Flight 611 profile would it not? Which **could** mean potentially same cause? A repair failure badly disrupting your aerodynamic cross-section can turn into a ballistic trajectory quickly (but not always - see JAL 123).

[mbriscoe]

Moreover, FR24 data is not synchronous, it's subject to whatever latency exists in the Internet connection between the enthusiast's receiver and the server.

That's particularly apparent in this instance, where the published data comes from 3 separate receivers, presumably in 3 different locations (see column 13 in the CSV file). Those clearly aren't time-synchronised, which is why we see wild variations of parameter values within the same second.

In other words, trying to construct a time-series with the data is fraught with problems. I'm very disappointed that ASN appears to have fallen into that trap with their dodgy graph.

But the time on the data is that added when it was transmitted, not when it was received or sent by the server.

COAA also calculate position by triangulation when they do have the positionless data fromby the aircraft but I am fairly sure it is still timecoded. People using that method have to have their computers synchronised to a time standard and it is rejected if their PC clock is not correct.

I have supplied ship's AIS data to the authorities a few times, it has similarities to that from aircraft and can be used by them to reconstruct what happened.

[babybaby]

Maybe there was nothing at all wrong with the aircraft? Recall the speculation immediately after the Germanwings incident?

[Weary]

Well if that data IS accurate (and I'm not suggesting that it is) -
The profile looks rather like a phugoid oscillation.......

[Chronus]

If the photos, ADS-B and FR24 data posted on this forum are anything to go by, it looks very much that the aircraft suffered a catastrophic event in the cruise. Perhaps brought about from a major fuselage rupture from an internal or external force.
With the TWA 800 crash, initially there was a big flap that it had been shot out of the sky by a rogue missile. In the final outcome it was attributed to the center fuel tank.

[Kulverstukas]

So Egyptians start reading flight recorders themselves, doesn't even waiting for Russian investigation authorities to arrive...

[Kulverstukas]

http://icdn.lenta.ru/images/2015/10/31/18/20151031185616527/feature_a3092a1f121b3defe74aa8518443e7a5.jpg

[Wellfan]

Not seeing a great deal of evidence that the aircraft broke into 2 pieces. If, as reported, bodies are over a 3km area, that is more likely to have broken in flight

[Nik4Me]

According to Russian "Kommersant" newspaper the official representative of TH&C holding- the parent company of the perished charter plane said that the plane underwent a D-Check procedure last year (according to the rep D-check takes place every 12 years of service and takes 30-40 days in a special tech facility with all the major components and systems tested and replaced if needed). In addition the certificate (of airworthiness?) has been confirmed this year...

[777JRM]

Remember what is pushed to the media may not be the truth.

Russian BUK missiles can reach around 70k feet (MH17).

Glide range depends on many factors, but I was taught a rule-of-thumb of 2 x the height in thousands....so, 31000 ft gives about 62 miles glide.

In unforeseen incidents such as this, the pilots' first reaction is, should be, FLY THE AIRCRAFT. Then navigate safely, and THEN communicate.....

[gulfairs]

Surely you mean it can glide for 150 miles.

From the usual outer marker point of 10 miles most jets can glide all the way to the thresh hold provided they don't dirty it up with gear and flaps.

[Pontius Navigator]

Gulfair, he was not making a statement but citing the authoritative statements from the instant experts.

[Passenger 389]

Re the poster who stated that 'aircraft do not drop out of the cruise, with no calls etc. unless a catastrophic failure or something sinister' -

Actually, they sometimes do.

AF 447, Air Asia 8501, and Air Algerie (MD-83) are three recent examples.

The crew was far too busy "Aviating" (or trying to) -- to be bothered with step 3 "Communicate"

Unless a flight crew gets the plane back under control, there isn't much point sending a mayday call. There will be no one to rescue.

(Air professionals all know this, but others reading this thread today may not).

[tubby linton]

Assuming the following-A321 with 210 pax approx zfm of 68t, five hour flight plus reserves requires 18t ramp fuel, 3t burn to get to the point it all kicks off.
The Buffer onset is about where they were when this started according to FR24 data. Winds aloft have been westerly for a number of days so TAS =GS.

[DaveReidUK]

But the time on the data is that added when it was transmitted, not when it was received or sent by the server.

Then it's even less likely to be synchronised across different receivers. The basic ADS-B data that most of them supply to FR24 is timestamped by using the PC's clock. We all know how accurate those are.

How else do you account for the wild variations in speed and VS? For example between 04:13:00.0Z and 04:13:00.6Z the three sources reported the groundspeed variously as 404kts, 398kts and 347kts. That's a longitudinal deceleration of around 5g. :ugh:

[clivegore]

Notice most flights are now avoiding this routing but on the other hand Middle East Aurlines are still routing out of Beirut and crossing Syria . Another tradegy waiting to happen ?

[wanabee777]

The 321 pilots I've spoken with say the plane, compared to the 319 and 320 is a real dog.

Wing area same as all 320 series Airbuses. 122.6 m².

[MG23]

The basic ADS-B data that most of them supply to FR24 is timestamped by using the PC's clock. We all know how accurate those are.

Most modern Internet-connected PCs should be synched via NTP; my laptop claims it's within 25ms of the half-dozen NTP servers it's listening to. But, yeah, the XP machine at work only seems to sync every few days, so it diverges quite a bit in that time.

I know ADS-C has a timestamp, but I think you're right that ADS-B doesn't. Since it's immediately broadcast, you know the time it was sent when you receive it... there's no delay from sending it through ACARS. My ADS-B receiver is down with a bad PSU at the moment, so I can't check how it's timestamping the messages.

[Engineless]

This might answer some of the questions that have been raised concerning FR24 data:

We acquired a signal from the aircraft shortly after takeoff and tracked it until 04:13:22 UTC. At the time of last contact we were receiving a signal from the aircraft to three of our receivers, all of which stopped receiving data from the aircraft at the same time.

Source:
Crash of Metrojet Flight 7K9268 | Flightradar24 Blog (http://www.flightradar24.com/blog/crash-of-metrojet-flight-7k9268/)

[VinRouge]

Major depress event? Emergency decent? Onboard bomb? Loss of control? Who knows. Find out soon enough with the boxes found. What's security like at Sharm?

Airport worker with ISIS sympathies?

[funfly]

One of our own pPruners giving a pretty balanced view on BBC news tonight.

[Engineless]

I know ADS-C has a timestamp, but I think you're right that ADS-B doesn't.

ADS-B does have a timestamp:

Column Information
A UTC Time Stamp
B FR24 internal unique flight ID
C Callsign KGL9268 = flight 7K9268
D Latitude
E Longitude
F Internal FR24 data type
H Squawk – Code ATC is using to identify flight
I Ground Speed in Knots
J Heading
K Vertical Speed in feet per minute
L Internal FR24 data identifier
M The ID of the FR24 receiver picking up data. (7K9268 was covered by multiple receivers)
N Internal FR24 data identifier


Source:
Crash of Metrojet Flight 7K9268 | Flightradar24 Blog (http://www.flightradar24.com/blog/crash-of-metrojet-flight-7k9268/)

[Topcliffe Kid]

As a previous poster has stated each adsb transmission is time stamped. I don't profess to know how FR24 aggregates its data (if indeed it does) but I can't see any advantage in them changing the transmitted timestamp. with multiple receivers/listeners I would expect that the first to reach FR24's server is used and the others discarded. The bottom line is that for each transmission received by FR24 the data will be correct for that timestamp.

[tubby linton]

Wanabee777 I would say the opposite, but they are an accountants aeroplane and gutless when heavy.I flew an A321 yesterday on a similar length route and the time to top of climb ((FL320) was over thirty minutes.

[Etud_lAvia]

From Associated Press via the New York Times:

Officers from Russia's top investigative body raided the offices of Metrojet and Brisco on Saturday, searching the premises and questioning employees. Investigative Committee spokesman Vladimir Markin said agents also took samples of fuel from the airport in the Russian city of Samara where the plane stopped Friday before heading to Sharm el-Sheikh, where it had overnighted.

(My emphasis added.)

[RHS]

Probably initially max REC would have been somewhere around FL330 so FL320 would be optimum, so if unavailable then FL300 is plausible. Then step up to 340/360 later enroute.

As others have said the 321 is gutless, surprisingly so.

[funfly]

aa73, you should refer to previous posts.

[theron]

Quote:
I know ADS-C has a timestamp, but I think you're right that ADS-B doesn't.
ADS-B does have a timestamp:

Quote:
Column Information
A UTC Time Stamp
B FR24 internal unique flight ID
C Callsign KGL9268 = flight 7K9268
D Latitude
E Longitude
F Internal FR24 data type
H Squawk – Code ATC is using to identify flight
I Ground Speed in Knots
J Heading
K Vertical Speed in feet per minute
L Internal FR24 data identifier
M The ID of the FR24 receiver picking up data. (7K9268 was covered by multiple receivers)
N Internal FR24 data identifier
Source:
Crash of Metrojet Flight 7K9268 | Flightradar24 Blog

from your source:

"An important note about the csv file. Rows are in time order based on when data was processed from each receiver and not necessarily in chronological order."

[DaveReidUK]

ADS-B does have a timestamp:

Source:
Crash of Metrojet Flight 7K9268 | Flightradar24 Blog (http://www.flightradar24.com/blog/crash-of-metrojet-flight-7k9268/)

ADS-B does not have a native timestamp (ie one transmitted as part of the data packet).

Obviously at the point of reception one can be added by the receiver software and/or by the server that subsequently processes the data - but it doesn't originate from the aircraft and so cannot be assumed to be consistent between different receiving stations.

[41queenspark]

Do you notice that the starboard wing is inverted. Flap tracks clearly seen, and leading edge slat partially out, may be post crash damage must have fallen flat all there except wing tip fence.Then look at the photo of nose section has crush damage from below, yet the tail section is upright.

[Engineless]

Wife of Russian pilot says he previously voiced concern about safety and condition of plane

Source: https://twitter.com/Conflicts

[stuckgear]

Officers from Russia's top investigative body raided the offices of Metrojet and Brisco on Saturday

Means nothing.

It's just how a journalist desires to use words.

The FAA also sieze records in the event of an accident. As do many other authorities.

[Etud_lAvia]

I'm not an aviation professional (though I have performed engineering work on an IFR trainer and ground support systems for military avionics).

But I do know something about time series of discretely sampled data, and forensic analysis of sampled data records.

ADS was never intended to substitute for the FDR (we all know that, but ...).

ADS data can give a quite accurate portrayal of aircraft dynamics under conditions of near steady-state, or smooth gradual variation.

But the nature of these samples, as collected by FR24, makes them highly error-prone during sudden and extreme variations, such as the accident flight evidently experienced.

In recent years, we have seen cases in which the FR24 data indicated dramatic jumps in parameter values, which proved to be highly erroneous when compared with more reliable information.

Some commenters have already pointed out that certain sensors on which the ADS reports are based can give skewed readings under extreme conditions.

A big spike in the numbers is a reliable indication of ... a big spike in the numbers. Does it reveal what the aircraft was physically doing? Maybe ... maybe not.
_____________________________________________________

I have just confirmed that ADS-B (Downlink Format 17) does NOT include a time stamp, as others here have reported.

Accordingly, it seems that the FR24 time stamps are assigned by the FR24 receiving point and may be in error by one second or more.

This has some very important consequences. For one, FR24 samples sorted by time stamp might not correspond to the order in the aircraft sent the reports!

Also, it obviously means that any dynamic rate-of-change computation based on comparison of (supposedly) successive samples can be in error by hundreds (or even thousands) or percent.

Using such data to infer the dynamics of an airframe in a gross upset or other extreme maneuver is like ... walking blindfold while suffering vertigo.

[peekay4]

Most modern Internet-connected PCs should be synched via NTP;

Most Internet-connected PCs are synchronized to time.windows.com, which is not NTP.

Windows Time Service is "guaranteed" to only within five minute accuracy, although in practice it's usually accurate to within one minute on relatively modern PCs with reliable network connections.

I know ADS-C has a timestamp, but I think you're right that ADS-B doesn't.
ADS-B does have a timestamp:

ADS-B does not have a message timestamp, so typically the receiver hardware/software will add one or more timestamps.

There is no room in the 1090ES DF17 message format to transmit a full timestamp. More precise timing & location info requires both the transmitter and receiver to independently synchronize to UTC. There is a 1-bit flag in the DF17 format to indicate whether or not the transmitter is coupled to UTC.

[Topcliffe Kid]

I'm not an expert but if ADS-B does not have a native timestamp what is the point of including positional information if there is no time associated with it? why would that be done?

[me myself and fly]

Only the last picture showing the fuselage is genuine, the others posted earlier in the thread are from Algeria 2014. I did point this out earlier, quoting the posts and giving the model and time of the crash, however quite rightly my post was 'moderated' and the pictures to which you quote are still here.

[stuckgear]

something in the pitch control system of that airplane broke and rendered it uncontrollable...THS jackscrew maybe? Tail strike repair?..

niether the crash site nor the data shown are consisent with an airframe drilling into the ground.

The profile looks rather like a phugoid oscillation.......

not in the timeframe from the data

Obviously bank angle isn't shown on FR24 but I can clearly see it on raw data analysis.

You can easily work it out. the data shows at one stage a 25 deg heading change in something like 2 seconds.

The wreckage looks to be consistent with a flat stall/spin scenario.

This is consistent with the failure of some- or all flight control surfaces during cruise flight, including failure of the hydraulics. This has occurred in the past as a result of bulkhead failures /depressurization.

So case closed ? No need for an investigation then ?

[VinRouge]

Topcliffe Kid, because there is no need with ADS-B. Its typically transmitted as part of 1090Mhz Extended Squitter. The box is interrogated, then sent back straight away. There is no latency. Same as ACAS (TCAS II) signals, same as Mode S.

The difference with ACARS is that there are significant latencies from how the signal is transmitted over VHF (POA, VDL Mode 2 or 4) or SATCOM, handled by a communications service provider, then re-transmitted to either an ops centre or ATC centre. There is not direct connection, so you need a timestamp in order to determine when exactly the message was sent.

This doc (http://www.faa.gov/documentLibrary/media/Advisory_Circular/TCAS%20II%20V7.1%20Intro%20booklet.pdf)does a good job of explaining how busy the 1030Mhz and 1090 Mhz frequencies are and what is involved with Secondary surveillance and the like

[MountainBear]

Based upon the many pictures here:

Russia Plane Crash Debris Found in Egypt's Sinai Desert - NBC News (http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-plane-crash-debris-found-egypts-sinai-desert-n455126)

I don't see any sign of an explosive decompression. Admittedly, the pictures are not complete but I think it not probable that a bomb or a missile brought this plane down.

I can't get a real sense of the debris field so I can't comment of the the mid-flight break-up. I will say that the structural forces shown in this limited sample of debris suggest a flatter landing. The fact the tail is relatively intact suggest either the nose hit first or the tail broke off in flight.

edit: I also will note that on picture four that break looks clean, which may support the structural failure of the tail theory. Any structural engineers care to opine on that issue?

[peekay4]

I'm not an expert but if ADS-B does not have a native timestamp what is the point of including positional information if there is no time associated with it? why would that be done?
Normally both the transmitter and receiver are synchronized to UTC, so there is no need to send the time in the actual message.

Assuming the transmitter is coupled to UTC, it will send ADS-B messages in 0.2 second time slots. E.g, at 17:00:00.0, 00.2, 00.4, etc. The position sent will be interpolated to match these 200ms slots. E.g., at 00.35, the transmitter will calculate where the plane will be at 00.4, and then actually send the message out at 00.4. The receiver will do the reverse and determine the correct position and time to 200ms resolution.

If the transmitter is not coupled to UTC, the receiver accepts the position at the receiver's "current time".

There is one bit in the DF17 format that's used to determine if the transmitter is UTC-coupled or not.

[Mr Optimistic]

Pax here. Can ask if it was day/ night with a clear horizon?

[dsc810]

@Mr Optimistic
See picture in this thread of vis at the time...
Crash: Metrojet A321 over Sinai on Oct 31st 2015, disappeared from radar in climb over Sinai (http://avherald.com/h?article=48e9abe4&opt=0)

[Nemrytter]

Pax here. Can ask if it was day/ night with a clear horizon?It was early morning, the sun was low to the West (rose about half an hour earlier). Visibility was good, aside from a few small clouds the entire Sinai peninsula was clear. No sandstorms or anything like that so visibility was also good.

[me myself and fly]

Trying to quote post #172

A quick search via TinEye (think google for pictures)
https://www.tineye.com/search/34c62c0b3a7cf1c15f79712d85c6a6ff1359ac9a/?pluginver=chrome-1.1.4

Gives this for the 'first scenes' from the Aviation Herald.
?????? ????? ???????? ???? ?????! - ??????? (http://www.elmouhim.net/?p=1128828)

What i'm trying to point out is that even 'respected' websites and 'newspapers' can get it wrong, those pics are 2 years old and of a different airframe

[Topcliffe Kid]

Vinrouge, peekay4 - thanks for the info. Of course its the interrogation that initiates the transmission. Too much beer here methinks!

[stuckgear]

Russian BUK missiles can reach around 70k feet (MH17).

the BUK launcher..

http://i.huffpost.com/gen/1920815/thumbs/o-BUK-MISSILE-570.jpg

Not easily moved about covertly or smuggled

[peekay4]

Vinrouge, peekay4 - thanks for the info. Of course its the interrogation that initiates the transmission. Too much beer here methinks! It's actually a good question. Remember ADS-B is a "squitter" -- it does not require an interrogation before sending out a message!

[Kulverstukas]

Only the last picture showing the fuselage is genuine, the others posted earlier in the thread are from Algeria 2014.

Do you mean all photos with burned down wing and some horizontal stab (?) piece also burned?

[jack11111]

22 seconds of ADS-B data tells me the majority of the airframe hung together for 4000 to 6000 feet of desent from the start of the "event".


If this indicates loss of tail past rear pressure bulkhead there may be little data to read out.

[me myself and fly]

Yes the ones you posted on page 4 are from 2014

[VinRouge]

One thing I would note,

Where are both sides of the Horizontal Stab? Its certainly not on the shots with the vertical stab.

Would certainly explain the speed loss and height gain if the stab has gone in the cruise plus directional issues if a major part of the structure has failed, particularly stab pointing up into the airflow... aircraft would otherwise want to constantly nose down if the stab had gone completely.

I would be very interested in any recent maintainance/repairs of this area (rear bulkhead) as well as any historic damage.

Jet suffered tailstrike damage in 2001 for which it received repairs. If I were investigating, I would be spending a fair old amount of time looking for any cyclic metal fatigue and crack propagation around the rear bulkhead area, any pre-crash impact damage with the screwjacks...

Something similar happened with aft bulkhead damage caused by a vehicle on the Bagram 747 freighter crash a few years ago, pitch up, irrecoverable and uncontrollable stall.

this pic (http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/10/31/18/2DFC0BC000000578-3297871-image-a-61_1446317205024.jpg) is pretty telling, especially the direction the fuselage material is bent (outwards)

Also, an aircraft with a freely floating stab will incur opposite control motion (if the elevators are controllable still) to the input. Interesting Gen regarding stab damage on this NTSB report: Aircraft Accident Report, AAR-15-01


RIP.

[Clockandagger]

The third video down on this NBC story shows some wider angle shots of the crash site. Whilst not absolutely conclusive, they point to a relatively wide debris field but with major pieces still intact.

None of the major pieces appear to show the many small punctures associated with a fragmentation missile such as those clearly visible in MH17, and which would be typical of a missile required to reach this plane at its FL.

This would tentatively indicate some mid-air break up, but not due to not missile and so point towards some structural issue or major control surface failure, which is relatively consistent with the data we have from FR24 (lots of others have already expressed the caution that FR24 cannot be taken as fact)

Sad for the families, we pray for them and we all wait for the full inquiry results before we will really understand what happened. The rerouting of other aircraft a sensible precaution, whilst we all remain in doubt over the cause.

Egypt: Russian Passenger Plane With 224 Aboard Crashes in the Sinai - NBC News (http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russian-passenger-plane-disappears-radar-n454971)

[Pontius Navigator]

It was early morning, the sun was low to the West (rose about half an hour earlier). Visibility was good, aside from a few small clouds the entire Sinai peninsula was clear. No sandstorms or anything like that so visibility was also good.

The Sun rises in the EAST.

[DaveReidUK]

I would be very interested in any recent maintainance/repairs of this area (rear bulkhead) as well as any historic damage.

As would many of us, I suspect.

Bear in mind that 7 years elapsed between the JAL 747SR tailstrike and the Mount Osutaka crash.

[Grendel27]

Does does downlink format 17 contain a "message sequence number" - an incrementing number - so that messages that are duplicated or missing can be detected and that out of order messages and be detected and re-ordered?

Just wondering as we do this in ground based systems used by the emergency services...

G

[hamster3null]

Based upon the many pictures here:

Russia Plane Crash Debris Found in Egypt's Sinai Desert - NBC News (http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-plane-crash-debris-found-egypts-sinai-desert-n455126)

I don't see any sign of an explosive decompression. Admittedly, the pictures are not complete but I think it not probable that a bomb or a missile brought this plane down.


Telegraph quotes Egyptian officials saying that "Debris and bodies was spread over an area of between two and a half to just over three square miles." If true, there was at least some degree of midair disintegration, though it not necessarily the initial cause of the crash:

Russian plane crash: Egypt says it has found both black boxes of plane that crashed with 224 people on board - latest - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/11967725/Russian-plane-crash-Isil-claims-it-brought-down-airliner-that-crashed-in-Sinai-with-224-people-on-board-latest-news.html)

[Nemrytter]

The Sun rises in the EAST.of course. brain fart from me there, silly mistake.

[Grendel27]

While most PC clocks may not be highly accurate:

a) all of the PCs in my house are synchronised to NTP (I have my own NTP server)

b) most FR24 receivers are dedicated boxes - typically Raspberry Pi with an RTL dongle and *are* synchronised to NTP. Why dedicated boxes? because we leave them switched on 24/7/365.

G

[RiSq]

Can someone confirm if the compulsory D-check was required prior to the china 747 incident? I'm intrigued as this is suspiciosly looking like it may be a bulk head failure - surely the D-check last year would of picked this up if it was fatigue or botched repair?

Being a A321 with its long backside, these seem prone to tail strikes more than any other in the family (19,20)

I imagine investigators have already checked the run way to ensure this bird didnt scrape its backside on its way in or out of its routes today? Having read about the Qatar flight which carried on after a T/S and taking out all the lights recently, if it does turn out they hit in this A321, it shows you how fortunate the Qatar guys were.

[RiSq]

If you're talking about the recent incident in Miami it was Qatar not Emirates.

I was indeed - thanks for the correction. Brainfart moment.

[Porrohman]

Right Way Up asked:
Would be interested to know if this airline routinely carries dangerous goods.

I don't know about the accident airline's policies but, given the point of departure, it's possible that dive cylinders might have been on board. Standard precautions / procedures (depressurise the tank and preferably remove the valve - or open it) will prevent any problems but if proper precautions are not taken cylinders can be dangerous as this story shows;

Dive shop explosion sends tank shooting through parking lot | www.kirotv.com (http://www.kirotv.com/news/news/dive-shop-explosion-sends-tank-shooting-through-pa/nbPfF/)

Today's accident occurred near the top of the climb. The higher the pressure altitude, the greater the pressure differential if a dive cylinder has not been depressurised.

Dive cylinders that have been depressurised need to be inspected for corrosion before they can be re-used, so divers prefer to keep them at least slightly pressurised at all times to prevent corrosion. Airlines require dive cylinders to be depressurised before flight. Despite these opposing interests, qualified divers will be aware of the dangers and should respect the rules and airlines should enforce them. As a result, the chances of an accident are low but such an occurrence is not completely beyond the bounds of possibility.

Significant damage was caused to a Qantas 747 in 2008 when an oxygen cylinder exploded. This was part of the aircraft's systems but demonstrates what can happen when pressurised gas cylinders fail on board an aircraft;

"After clearing the baggage and cargo from the forward aircraft hold, it was evident that one passenger oxygen cylinder (number-4 from a bank of seven cylinders along the right side of the cargo hold) had sustained a sudden failure and forceful discharge of its pressurised contents into the aircraft hold, rupturing the fuselage in the vicinity of the wing-fuselage leading edge fairing. The cylinder had been propelled upward by the force of the discharge, puncturing the cabin floor and entering the cabin adjacent to the second main cabin door. The cylinder had subsequently impacted the door frame, door handle and overhead panelling, before falling to the cabin floor and exiting the aircraft through the ruptured fuselage."

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qantas_Flight_30

See also; ASN Aircraft accident Boeing 747-438 VH-OJK Manila, Philippines (http://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=20080725-0)

[PersonFromPorlock]

Re: Dive Tanks

Scuba tanks are pressurized to around 3000 psi, so dropping to an ambient pressure of, say, 3 psi wouldn't significantly increase the pressure differential.

[ve7pnl]

My ADS-B receiver was provided by FR24 and it has both an ADS-B antenna and a separate apparently amplified GPS antenna. My assumption is that the reports that go out are time stamped with time of reception using very accurate time from GPS. I'm located in a very desolate area in Nevada near Death Valley and get quite a few lower level flights that are missed by some FAA resources. And often see aircraft ADS-B signals about 30 miles out over the Pacific near San Francisco and well into Utah.

[LIMA OR ALPHA JUNK]

Heard from a mate who flew in there today that the aircraft had had maintenance all night by local engineers and was signed off early this morning.

One can only speculate but I very much doubt it was shot down.

[N4565L]

BBC reporting debris field spread over 8 Km.

[damirc]

Took the CSV file FR24 published on their site and graphed the altitude as reported by the stations.

The results are below: KGL9268 Altitude data - Album on Imgur (http://imgur.com/a/NHQuQ)

Whatever happened started some 255 seconds from the start of the published log, upto that point the aircraft was climbing normally and all stations were reporting consistent data. After that it gets fuzzy. The album also contains 4 more images - one is all altitude data after the 250. second and the rest is altitude data after the 250. second separated by station ID.

No interpretation from my side, thought it might come handy to someone.

[TailLift]

8 km debris field indicates medium to high altitude break-up, so missile strike cannot be ruled out.

[Below the glide]

Hello Chaps,

Over the years Airbus have generally suffered from AoA probe issues. Some more significant than other depending whether it's an SA or LR type.

Perhaps a culprit could be the onset of an incorrect applied procedure for Abnormal v Alpha Prot which led to an UAS, loss of a significant amount of speed whilst misunderstanding OEB48.

An aircraft in alternate law at high altitude isn't as easy to handle as an aircraft at lower altitude.

Food for thought, it's hardly trained and a bit of tough one to simulate. A lot of us have a tendency 'to read the OEB'. But do we understand it?

[thcrozier]

Took the CSV file FR24 published on their site and graphed the altitude as reported by the stations.


Without doing all the math, it seems to me that this altitude profile is not necessarily in conflict with the Vertical Speed graphic posted this morning on ASN.

[TailLift]

MH17 report had the following to say about the Sinai peninsula:

http://40.media.tumblr.com/aac5293d9bb1b98f13734b03d83f5c5b/tumblr_nx4629EUs41uizcbco1_1280.jpg

[RYFQB]

Took the CSV file FR24 published on their site and graphed the altitude as reported by the stations.

I was thinking somewhat along the same lines regarding the different stations, but what I did was make a new CSV with the data sorted not by time (which we know is not reliable, as the timestamp is not from the aircraft) but by coordinates (which are transmitted by the aircraft) from 30N onwards. Share CSV files online - ShareCSV (http://www.sharecsv.com/s/9ffdd0445f2e277d974625d5bb6aba15/EIETJ_edit.csv)

For easier visual comparison (to me anyway), I also made a CSV with the same data, only staggered by station, with those lines of data that appear to be duplicates from more than one station overlapping. Share CSV files online - ShareCSV (http://www.sharecsv.com/s/af1ec57ebfb1f4bb170d653e9ac41cf2/EIETJ_edit2.csv)

No deep analysis from me here, but a couple of remarks:
(1) It appears the time difference between receivers is quite small.
(2) There are overlapping packets in the final stage, which to me means that as weird as the numbers look, they are what the aircraft reported, and not receiver errors.
(3) In my experience, the personal/hobbyist ADS-B software will silently carry over data from a previous packet. I often see too few parameters change when I observe an aircraft at the limit of my range.

[Etud_lAvia]

Just looked at the longest article I've yet seen (on any topic) in gazeta.ru: The Largest Catastrophe in Russian Aviation (http://www.gazeta.ru/social/2015/10/31/7864817.shtml)

Some highlights:

• this crash is the largest loss of life in the history of Russian aviation, surpassing the 1985 Tu-154 crash in Uzbekistan (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aeroflot_Flight_7425) which killed 200 (that doomed Soviet era-flight was also intended to land at Pulkovo airport)

• Putin has declared tomorrow (1 November) to be a national day of mourning

• although the flight was nominally chartered by a tour company called "Triomed" operating under the brand "Brisco", both Triomed and Kogalymavia (operating under the brand Metrojet) belong to "Western Aviation-Investment Company" ... ALL of these companies are registered at the same Moscow address

• the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation has already opened two criminal cases :eek: ... one for "violation of the rules of safety preparedness" («Нарушение правил полетов и подготовки к ним») and another for "provision of unsafe services" («Оказание небезопасных услуг»). Quick work, comrades!

• the Russian web has numerous complaints from previous airline customers complaining about their experiences

• on 1 January 2011, the airline experienced a fire on a taxiway in Surgut (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kolavia_Flight_348) which killed 3, and sent 43 more to hospital

• customers with Brisko tour reservations are cancelling their trips

• notwithstanding all the above, Brisko announced that it will loyally continue to charter its flights with its kissing-cousin airline, Metrojet

• the airline apparently insures it passengers, with the payout expected at more than RUB 2,000,000 (over USD 31,000 at today's rates) per person

• Putin has declared tomorrow (1 November) to be a national day of mourning
________________________________

A "non-news" component of the story that got my attention, was (in the context of reassuring readers about the aviation system) a wry acknowledgement of Russia's corner-cutting traditions. It explained that aircraft maintenance is unlike "известного в России способа «быстро сделать»" (the known Russian method of "making quick").

This reference acknowledges the awareness of ordinary Russians that in their "rules are made to be broken" culture, few things are what they're supposed to be. It is normal for Russians to be afraid that restaurant food may send them to a sickbed, or that liquor purchased from a shop will be a cheap counterfeit of its labelled brand. (Not selling "anti-Russian propaganda" here, this is first-hand experience from many visits to the Russian Federation.)

[Mesoman]

"data sorted not by time (which we know is not reliable, as the timestamp is not from the aircraft)"

It is reported that the stations use GPS to time stamp their data. That means the time stamps should be quite accurate - well under a microsecond error.

Aircraft reported position during an extreme event, on the other hand, could be off, as could altitude and speed. These measurements may be way wrong. Someone here probably knows where the position comes from - is it from an integrating flight computer or from near-instantaneous GPS, for example.

Hopefully the black boxes will lead to a decent reconstruction. Then, it would be quite interesting to see how the FR24 recorded ADSB data looks.

[janeczku]

Moreover, FR24 data is not synchronous, it's subject to whatever latency exists in the Internet connection between the enthusiast's receiver and the server.

Wrong. S-mode packets are time-stamped on the receiver before they are uploaded to the server.


That's particularly apparent in this instance, where the published data comes from 3 separate receivers, presumably in 3 different locations (see column 13 in the CSV file). Those clearly aren't time-synchronised, which is why we see wild variations of parameter values within the same second.


Partially wrong. Some receivers are GPS time synced and some are not. See RYFQB's explanation.

[damirc]

Created a new album with altitude and GS both in the same graphs.

KGL9268 - Altitude and GS - Album on Imgur (http://imgur.com/a/Xkwze)

The data does seem to be rather consistent, since there are no outliers before the 250th second.

What is interesting is that GS drops to below 100kts on both stations 2132 and 2593 (2614 stops receiving after second 261) drop along with the altitude

D.

[RYFQB]

It is reported that the stations use GPS to time stamp their data. That means the time stamps should be quite accurate - well under a microsecond error.

Edit 2: You are flat out right. My line of reasoning was ill-founded, as I mixed up the types of receivers.

[thcrozier]

damirc:

Interesting graphics. 2614 looks like an outlier. It will be interesting to learn the true story, but if the rest of the data is remotely correct, I think something catastrophic happened long before impact with the ground.

[peekay4]

We can simply plot all the stations together to quickly see how their data relate:

https://s3.amazonaws.com/org.barkah.misc/altitudebystation.png

[hamster3null]

Took the CSV file FR24 published on their site and graphed the altitude as reported by the stations.

The results are below: KGL9268 Altitude data - Album on Imgur (http://imgur.com/a/NHQuQ)

Whatever happened started some 255 seconds from the start of the published log, upto that point the aircraft was climbing normally and all stations were reporting consistent data. After that it gets fuzzy. The album also contains 4 more images - one is all altitude data after the 250. second and the rest is altitude data after the 250. second separated by station ID.

No interpretation from my side, thought it might come handy to someone.

A few points to help with interpretation.

* We don't have enough data. The aircraft normally transmits information twice a second. But even the station with most records (2593) only has 8 data points between 04:13:00 and 04:13:21. Clearly, many packets were lost.

* Velocity and heading are transmitted in one packet. Latitude, longitude and altitude are transmitted in a different packet. Which means that, e.g., if a station gets a position packet but not a velocity packet, you'll see a row with current altitude but outdated velocity, and vice versa.

* There's no timestamp in the packet so entries with slightly different times received by different stations may correspond to the same packet.

* Vertical velocity seems to be extremely noisy and seems to be derived from altitude anyway, so I'd disregard it altogether.

I tried to parse the data provided by FR24 with all this in mind, and here's the picture I'm getting.

* Prior to 04:12:58, all is normal.
* Around 04:13:00, there's a couple of erratic altitude readings. (There are three packets within three seconds reporting altitude 29750, 30975 and 33275, and clearly all of them can't be right. The aircraft was at 30750 just prior to this time.) The aircraft begins slowing and turning to the right.
* At some point between 04:12:58 and 04:13:05 (the exact time is hard to pinpoint because of the erratic readings), it begins descending.
* At 04:13:10, it's slowed down below 250 knots, turned 25 degrees to the right, and it's descending at the rate of at least 7000 fpm.
* Last received position packet, at 04:13:19.5, gives its altitude as 27925'.
* Last received velocity packet, at 04:13:22, gives its horizontal airspeed as 62 knots.

[Airbubba]

But the id is F-OJAI2

So that would be a receiver near Amman from the airport code. That site is active almost 24 hours later, at the moment tracking an Egyptair A330 approaching the Gulf of Aqaba.

I have a FR24 supplied receiver and a program to see the raw data it receives.

AFAIK, The aircraft transmits GPS position, groundspeed, heading, bank angle and an altitude, every second. Software calculates VS. FR receive all this data but only plot every 30sec or minute on the webpage.

Obviously bank angle isn't shown on FR24 but I can clearly see it on raw data analysis.


Wonder if some more useful data could be harvested off F-OJAI2's computer? FR24 would know the contact information.

[hamster3null]

By the way, can anyone find locations of those stations?

A check of FR24 map shows several airports within range from the crash site. Sharm El Sheikh is pretty far. Eilat is only 100 km away, but there's a line of hills west of the city which may be blocking the line of sight. But two airports in Tel Aviv are 200 km away, and, if they were already tracking it, they should have been able to see it at least down to 15000' if it were transmitting all the way down.

[Machinbird]

As others have done, I broke the FR24 data into 3 sets by receiving site, and compared data.
The aircraft data transmissions do not so much resemble discrete pulses of data that are either received or not received by a station, but are more like a steady stream of data packets that are either received or not received. by the individual stations. (This means that you cannot easily cross check stations for synchronicity.)
I did compare unique events reported by the 3 reporting stations and they seem to be within 1 second of each other. The uncertainty revolves upon how time data is rounded. In a few cases, an individual station reported two separate sets of data for the same second.

After examining the data for the first deviation from "Ops Normal" I picked the time 04:12:35Z as the demarcation between Ops Normal and what followed. At that point, the rate of climb began to deviate from expected and afterwards, around 04:12:57, the aircraft experienced some sort of full scale break up event that caused its Ground Speed to decrease rapidly.

The times referenced are the FR24 provided times.

[RYFQB]

According to the same FR24 blog post, "Autopilot Target Altitude" was 32 000 feet, by the way.

[andrasz]

Only the last picture showing the fuselage is genuine, the others posted earlier in the thread are from Algeria 2014. Correct, the first photo shows the tailplane of the 2014 August An-12 crash near Tamanrasset. However the inverted right wing is a genuine photo of this accident.

From photos published so far there appears to be at least two major areas of wreckage, matching initial reports of ground witnesses:

The nose section, with upper part of the fuselage crushed, implying ground impact inverted. The impact was not strong enough to disintegrate the entire section, which rolled semi-upright after impact. On the video released by RT it is possible to see on a few frames for a split-second that the severely burned center section and wings (also in an inverted position) are not far behind, suggesting that the wings with the center and front section came down in one piece. On some photos of the wing it is clear that slats, flaps and landing gear are fully retracted.

The tail section, which fell almost vertically and was crushed at the bottom, the impact also breaking the main spar of the VS. No trace of fire, and also no other wreckage is visible in the background on photos taken from different angles. The entire tail-cone section housing the APU and the entire HS structure is missing aft of the rear door and the pressure bulkhead.

All this, together with reports of a large debris field, seems to confirm an in-flight breakup around the time radar contact / FR24 data stream was lost. In the mean time, Egyptians have denied there was any communication between ATC and crew.

If this is correct, there are three possible causes:

A) Catastrophic failure of key flight control surfaces or loss of structural integrity, which rapidly place the aircraft into attitudes that cause structural breakup due to aerodynamic loads. This is also consistent with a rapid drop in airspeed quickly followed by a complete loss of transmitted data.

B) Inappropriate crew action which results in same scenario as above. Given the various envelope protections on AB this can only be achieved intentionally by degrading to direct law. A stall and subsequent blundered recovery would not cause this. All recent LOC accidents had an out of control but structurally intact aircraft hit the ground. Intentional crew action, while also having some high profile precedents, is highly unlikely at this stage.

C) Onboard explosion (bomb) which achieves the same as a structural failure. This would be the likeliest under given circumstances, however knowing the likely motives success would immediately be claimed and advertised. The fabricated IS video appearing 8 hours after the event lacks any credibility, and there were no other claims of responsibility, so again unlikely at present.

Given all above, scenario A) as implied by the Egyptian authorities (who are the only ones having access to detailed information at present) is a plausible one. It is thought provoking that the rear tip of the fuselage with the horizontal stabilizer appears to have separated from the rest of the tail section while in flight, while in many accidents we have seen the tail section retain most of its structural integrity even after a severe ground impact. Whether this was cause or effect remains to be seen, however in this context the 2001 tail-strike may be more significant than expected.

[emratty]

This may be or may not be a terrorist act but I commend the airlines who as a precaution have stopped overflights of the Sinai. A MANPAD I agree will not hit an airliner in the cruise but there is so much military hardware that was taken from the Libyan army during the revolution who knows what has fallen into these nutters hands.

[Sergey Tachenov]

• the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation has already opened two criminal cases :eek: ... one for "violation of the rules of safety preparedness" («Нарушение правил полетов и подготовки к ним») and another for "provision of unsafe services" («Оказание небезопасных услуг»). Quick work, comrades!The usual practice in Russia. Just as raiding the offices. So don't think too deep into it. The next news will probably be that some embezzlement was discovered. Which also shouldn't surprise anyone because embezzlement is also a standard practice in Russia.

[andrasz]

The usual practice in Russia


As it is in several other jurisdictions such as France, Germany, Canada, Japan, etc. Deaths have occurred, which mandates a judicial investigation that is separate from the accident investigation. It is perfectly normal practice everywhere that documents related to the accident flight and aircraft are immediately impounded by the authorities.

[konsult]

I just wanted to give some answers to questions in this thread.

* All data from flight #7K9268 were picked up by FR24 receivers, which means receivers that are equipped with a GPS to get correct timing.

* FR24 is saving ALL received data in all FR24 receivers for last 4-8 hours (the full data volume is too big to be stream in real time) and in case it's needed the data is download from the receiver manually. In this case the raw data has been downloaded from 3 receivers that were picking up data last 30 seconds. Except for autopilot-data, none of this data has been published yet but confirms the data that has been published. In this data IAS and TAS are probably available but needs to be verified before it's released.

* There has been some confusion about the vspeed data. For MLAT flights vspeed data is calculated on FR24 side. For ADS-B flights vspeed data comes from the transponder. In this case the vspeed data is fluctuating too much to be correct, but it shows that something very dynamic was happening with the flight last seconds. The same fluctuations are visible when looking on data from each individual receiver one by one.

[Nemrytter]

In this case the vspeed data is fluctuating too much to be correct, but it shows that something very dynamic was happening with the flight last seconds.no. All it shows is that the data is incorrect. Incorrect data cannot show what was happening to the aircraft at that time

[DaveReidUK]

In my experience, the personal/hobbyist ADS-B receivers will silently carry over data from a previous packet if it receives an incomplete packet. I often see only one parameter change when I observe an aircraft at the limit of my range, say altitude may be changing while lat/lon is fixed for a while.

What you are describing is of course a function of the software that's displaying the received data, not the receiver itself.

And it's not necessarily related to "incomplete packets".

Those analysing the FR24 data will have noted that every row in the table contains a complete set of values for lat/lon. altitude, track, groundspeed and VS. But that's not what actually happens - the aircraft never sends all those parameters simultaneously as the DF17 squitter packet isn't long enough to accommodate them all.

Instead, they get sent in separate packets and FR24 simply carries over the last received values for those parameters that aren't part of a received packet. That's why, for example, the lat/lon values at 04:13:12 and 04:13:13 are identical, which is impossible unless we're talking about a helicopter or a vertical dive/climb with zero groundspeed. :ugh:

So, essentially, the only values that can be taken at face value are those that have actually changed compared to the previous row in the table.

And even some of those are suspect - I have yet to see any explanation of the apparent 5g deceleration at 04:13:00 other than the timestamps being out of sync, GPS/NTP notwithstanding.

[HeartyMeatballs]

That video is no more real than the tooth fairy or the Easter bunny. ISIS videos are typically high quality and well thought out. Surely the real money shot would be the entire crash sequence including hitting the ground. Only two seconds post 'missile strike' is filmed. I just don't buy it. If it as due to sabotage it will be from within the jet.

The fact that the MetroJet management have done a runner to Thailand speaks volumes.

[lucille]

I have over the past decade been in and out of HESH hundreds of times. Security was merely an act of going through the motions and ticking the boxes. I have little reason to believe that anything has changed.

On that basis, I am incredulous as to why a terrorist act has been ruled out with such vigor. In light of the I.S. claim to having brought down the aircraft, my incredulity remains.

Note : I am NOT saying this is the result of a terrorist act, I am merely saying it cant be ruled out YET.

[PembsPanther]

The fact that the MetroJet management have done a runner to Thailand speaks volumes.

Source please.

[Modesto]

IS in Sinai have said that the video circulating is fake. Or rather... real video... not of this incident.

As noted, they are very particular about production and videos often are released days after an attack.

[hamster3null]

That's why, for example, the lat/lon values at 04:13:12 and 04:13:13 are identical, which is impossible unless we're talking about a helicopter or a vertical dive/climb with zero groundspeed. :ugh:

So, essentially, the only values that can be taken at face value are those that have actually changed compared to the previous row in the table.

And even some of those are suspect - I have yet to see any explanation of the apparent 5g deceleration at 04:13:00 other than the timestamps being out of sync, GPS/NTP notwithstanding.

Strictly speaking, since FR24 only reports lat/lon to 3 digits after the decimal point, 0.001 degrees of latitude is 100 m, and the aircraft is only going ~100 m/s at that point, it's not impossible for two adjacent packets to have the same coordinates.

Presumably, the velocity parameter is airspeed and it's taken from the pitot-static system. Explosive decompression at 04:13:00 could explain the fluctuations both in reported altitude and in airspeed. I don't think that there was a timing issue, since reported lat/lon values progress smoothly.

[physicus]

What makes you think the altimetry system in an airliner category airplane would be affected in any way by an explosive decompression? All static and dynamic pressure ports are on the outside of the aircraft, hopefully...

[hamster3null]

What makes you think the altimetry system in an airliner category airplane would be affected in any way by an explosive decompression? All static and dynamic pressure ports are on the outside of the aircraft, hopefully...

Explosive decompression means a shock wave propagating out from the decompression spot. It only takes about 0.5 psi of overpressure to make the barometric altimeter read 28000' momentarily instead of 31000'.

Or it could be something totally unrelated, of course.

P.S. Found this paper (http://shepherd.caltech.edu/EDL/publications/reprints/issw24-1641p.pdf), doing numerical simulation of the blast wave from explosive decompression of an aircraft. It calculates maximum overpressure of 1.15 kPa (0.17 psi) at the distance of 50 m directly forward from the point of decompression, using TWA 800 parameters (altitude 15000', Mach 0.50). Here we have higher speed and nearly double the pressure differential, so 0.5 psi is plausible.

OTOH, if this were a Buk type surface-to-air missile, we have this simulation (http://www.onderzoeksraad.nl/uploads/phase-docs/1006/97ad0f76ac09report-mh17-crash-appendix-tno.pdf)and it estimates peak overpressure on the order of 100 kPa / 15 psi at the distance of 10 m from the point of detonation, and I'm not sure if the pitot-static system would even continue to function after a such an impact.

[kostuek]

Thank you for sharing. Maybe we can look at it like this?

http://picload.org/image/pldddrl/incident.jpg

[atakacs]

Just a few remarks

Given this accident location I'm pretty sure that flight was within both IDF and Egyptian military radar range (maybe even USAF AWACS). Any SAM launch (if there was one it wasn't a MPADS for sure) would have been spotted.

Another point is the amount of information - not necessarily relevant btw - that can be inferred out of ADS-B. Many have clamored for real time flight tracking... we are getting quite close !

Lastly a question: who will be investigation this (regardless of ICAO regulations) ? I feel that French BEA might emerge at some point... not sure the Russians would be happy about it but it still might be the fattest / most relevant approach.

[A_Van]

Was there anything heard from Israel? Can hardly imagine that they do not permanently, carefully and accurately monitor this airspace, which is just across the border that was a battlefield may times in the past.
If they did (monitor) they could at least line out some versions discussed...


Sorry if I overlooked anything on this matter.


Concerning MANPADs, IMHO, why not to consider more serious stuff that jihaddists took over in Lybia during the chaos in that country? There were C-125 and even C-200 there...

[MainDude]

Ground based terrorism?

Both Lufthansa and Air France have announced that they will not fly over the Sinai until further notice.

Have they received further information/briefings.

Knee jerk reaction?


And now BA are avoiding the area. It does raise the question, have security services briefed airlines and if so the reason would be rather obvious.

It's marketing...

[Kulverstukas]

Just to make some comments to Metrojet/Kolavia info

- Company (it's holding of travel and charter companies) is half owned by Turkish citizen.
- Aviation part is operates since 1993.
- There was two hull losses since, both with Tu-154

There is a lot of speculation lately of poor financial state (unconfirmed), poor maintenance complains (unconfirmed or denied), salary delay for flight crews and pilots forced to fly broken planes (sources suspicious).

[scr1]

Was there anything heard from Israel? Can hardly imagine that they do not permanently, carefully and accurately monitor this airspace, which is just across the border that was a battlefield may times in the past.
If they did (monitor) they could at least line out some versions discussed

Yes they are involved

IDF coordinating with Russia, Egypt to help locate felled Russian plane in Sinai - Breaking News - Jerusalem Post (http://www.jpost.com/Breaking-News/IDF-coordinating-with-Russia-Egypt-to-help-locate-felled-Russian-plane-in-Sinai-430610?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter)

Benjamin Netanyahu: We are in contact with Egyptian, Russian governments regarding circumstance of crash - Breaking News - Jerusalem Post (http://www.jpost.com/Breaking-News/Netanyahu-We-are-in-contact-with-Egyptian-Russian-governments-regarding-circumstance-of-crash-431681?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter)

[physicus]

@hamster3null Purely from a physics perspective, a pressure wave traveling forward seems unlikely in a simple explosive decompression. I guess we have to define "explosive". I'm talking about a section of fuselage departing for whatever reason. This pops open like a soda can, not a bomb. Your examples all involve an actual explosion: TWA800 fuel tank/missile (whichever story you want to believe), Buk a missile, in either of those cases, the pressure wave is generated by an explosion, not the "explosive" decompression.

If of course there was a bomb on board, the same theory applies and a pressure wave could indeed have travelled front ways far enough to disturb the pressure ports.

[GNS APPROACH]

wrong data from the inertial reference unit can lead to a hardover

high rate of descent followed by higher climb rate in a short time, leading to higher G load

Can somebody calculate the G load with the given data?

[tubby linton]

The A320 family as I have stated before climb very slowly . When the rate falls to around approximately two hundred feet a minute they fly level. They accelerate a few knots past the target climb speed and then pitch up again and resume climbing. This is repeated until the aircraft reaches its cruise level.
The ground speed from FR seems very low for a climb in a heavy aircraft. If the aircraft speed falls to below green dot at high level it will neither climb or accelerate and a descent will be required to accelerate the aircraft and allow climb to be resumed.

[tmny]

@physicus the AC has a speed near to the speed of sound, so it’s more unlikely to give a statement from physics of a wave which cannot travel faster than the speed of sound in either case of explosion or decompression.

[txl]

Russian news agency Interfax reports that the country's transportation authority has grounded all of Kogalymavia's Airbus 321:

ROSTRANSNADZOR SUSPENDS FLIGHTS OF KOGALYMAVIA AIRBUSES A321

[hamster3null]

@hamster3null Purely from a physics perspective, a pressure wave traveling forward seems unlikely in a simple explosive decompression. I guess we have to define "explosive". I'm talking about a section of fuselage departing for whatever reason. This pops open like a soda can, not a bomb. Your examples all involve an actual explosion: TWA800 fuel tank/missile (whichever story you want to believe), Buk a missile, in either of those cases, the pressure wave is generated by an explosion, not the "explosive" decompression.

If of course there was a bomb on board, the same theory applies and a pressure wave could indeed have travelled front ways far enough to disturb the pressure ports.

My first link models a pressure wave that is caused precisely by removing part of pressurized fuselage. The wave propagates in all directions (since the aircraft is subsonic) and it's actually stronger in the forward direction because it's compressed in that direction.

TWA 800 was not destroyed directly by the fuel tank explosion. The explosion cracked the fuselage, which was then blown apart by the pressure differential between the cabin and the outside air.

[Tourist]

The A320 family as I have stated before climb very slowly . When the rate falls to around approximately two hundred feet a minute they fly level. They accelerate a few knots past the target climb speed and then pitch up again and resume climbing. This is repeated until the aircraft reaches its cruise level.

None of that is actually true.

The A320 climbs very well to the level the aircraft recommends you climb to.

[StopStart]

Whilst engaging in general speculation is never helpful (and the endless debate about the FR24 data is a fine example of the bottomless rabbit holes some people like to go down) the emerging pictures and information on the wreckage spread tend to suggest a high altitude break up. Caused by I've no idea.

The picture of the tail section shown on various news media sources is interesting though. Obviously the collapse damage to the empennage is mostly down the impact with ground. Likewise the lower fuselage damage and that around the L4 door. There are, however, signs of the fuselage skin peeling outwards (red arrows) possibly indicative of a force acting outwards from within. Similarly there's the very clean break around the fuselage frame. It looks like an initial failure as opposed to something twisting and tearing apart as it fell.

http://i1113.photobucket.com/albums/k512/stickybloke/C6302DEA-0C47-4F41-927F-7CFEC5ED1E3C.jpg

[dead_pan]

On that basis, I am incredulous as to why a terrorist act has been ruled out with such vigor. In light of the I.S. claim to having brought down the aircraft, my incredulity remains.

Given the comments I have read regarding security at Sharm, it does seem sensible at this juncture for authorities to investigate the possibility some sort of smuggled device being used to down the airliner.

[mateo69]

A word from military industry professional. I would like to end all the missile scenarios.
Sinai is a demilitarised zone, you cannot simply move a SA 11 battery into it. The area is strictly monitored by Egyptians and Israelis, it is impossible to position a complex missile system there without being noticed. Not mentioning obtaining the whole system, which is not only a launcher, but also command component, acquisition radar and logistics vehicles.
As it comes to MANPADS, thanks to Wassenaar arrangement, trading of those is limited to government to government transactions. Each of the sets has a serial number which allows to track the whole history of ownership. Therefore they would be too precious for a terrorist group to waste on an airliner. It's much simpler to install a pressure activated explosive charge. On the technical side, such missile sets require heat seeker cooling procedure before target acquisition, operating them is not computer game - easy. Even if you complete the procedure, the best combat proven MANPADS have effective range of 5-6 km and effective ceiling of 3-4 km. As you can see, reaching fl 33 is out of question.

Hope it helps.

[Kulverstukas]

Similarly there's the very clean break around the fuselage frame.

This quite accurate cut along frame (spanthout) looks suspicious.

UPD: on the other side, if it falls upside down, it was naturally teared along frames and ribs (as we can see at the tail fin breakage) after vertical stabilizer hit the ground.

[flash8]

On that basis, I am incredulous as to why a terrorist act has been ruled out with such vigor. In light of the I.S. claim to having brought down the aircraft, my incredulity remains.

Within hours (literally) the Egyptian authorities declared all sorts of things (distress call, recorders being decoded, no bomb, no missile).

If I were MAK I'd isolate the area from these buffoons as soon as possible, god help us if they touch the DFDR's.

[tatelyle]

Given the comments I have read regarding security at Sharm, it does seem sensible at this juncture for authorities to investigate the possibility some sort of smuggled device being used to down the airliner.

And given that ISIS urged a holy war against Russia just a couple of weeks ago, 'it does seem sensible at this juncture for authorities to investigate the possibility some sort of smuggled device being used to down the airliner'.

Islamic State urges jihad against Russians, Americans: audio | Reuters (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/13/us-mideast-crisis-islamicstate-idUSKCN0S72DH20151013)

And note that ISIS made this threat against 'crusaders' on Oct 13th - the very day that the Knights Templar were all destroyed by King Philip the Fair. It demonstrates the historical context that they are operating within.

[tatelyle]

Kulverstukas:
This quite accurate cut along frame (spanthout) looks suspicious.

Fuselages often naturally tear along fuselage frames, but not normally from flight loadings. Ground impact could create a tear, as could an internal detonation. So if the tail is not situated right next door to the fuselage, it may suggest the latter.

[Kulverstukas]

Within hours (literally) the Egyptian authorities declared all sorts of things (distress call, recorders being decoded, no bomb, no missile).


I hope it's usual post-accident hassle, not any bad intent. Uncertain information, people who is not part of investigation speaking, multiplied by journalists and internet... :ugh:

And given that ISIS urged a holy war against Russia just a couple of weeks ago

ISIS urged holy war against everybody so anything happening since they can propagate as their deeds.

[physicus]

@hamster3null thanks for the TWA800 article link, very illuminating and compelling evidence that I was wrong. The details would be a little different at an air temperature of -50C (namely the speed of sound is about 10% slower) and the speed of the aircraft was higher. Short of finding their simulation code and plugging in our numbers, I suspect your theory has merit and is plausible.

[Kulverstukas]

Russian news agency Interfax reports that the country's transportation authority has grounded all of Kogalymavia's Airbus 321:

It's quite common measure in Russia to ground any fleet if there is any suspicion that accident was result of some malfunction which can be common around type and/or maintenance conditions.

Same was with Tu-204/214 fleet after VKO overrun.

[wilyflier]

Kulverstuka #235 at 1158

My take on fin and rudder , pic at #233 and earlier.....

Fin reduced to a stub.
Not ripped or graunched by the inverted ground contact you suggested.
Very clear in earlier picture, leading edge of top half of fin
has collapsed onto the 'stub' due to
high vertical G force at pancake type impact
Looks as if rudder had departed before the 'collapse'

[Kulverstukas]

wilyflier
has collapsed onto the 'stub' due to
high vertical G force at pancake type impact

I can't see any traces of dirt or sand on fin leading edge as well as on top of rear fuselage where it's torn off the main. The same with cockpit bottom seems intact and clear from any traces of ground.

On the other hand, any part which is strongly damaged bears prominent traces of dust and sand/ground, literally excavates it.

Doesn't it mean that parts which are clear doesn't contact ground or make it with small speed?

[stuckgear]

I hope it's usual post-accident hassle, not any bad intent. Uncertain information, people who is not part of investigation speaking, multiplied by journalists and internet... :ugh:

The rush to declare no terrorist action is most likely founded in protecting the Tourism industry and also 'loss of face'

[DaveReidUK]

In the following bulletin it is said that the tail strike happened to this particular A-321 on Nov. 16, 2001 in Cairo was "hard, causing serious damage"

Would be interesting to learn the details of the repair and further maintenance/check. At that time it was Middle East Airlines that operated this aircraft.

The aircraft reportedly went back into service in mid-February 2002, some 3 months later. So even allowing for a bit of initial argy-bargying over the repair scheme and the admin, it sounds like some fairly extensive work needed to be done.

[Have briefs]

As a "layman" and certainly no aviation expert, is it possible that this was caused by the rear door failing with resulting catastrophic decompression as was the case with Tristars?

[CargoFlyer11]

It pays to revisit JAL 123:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_Airlines_Flight_123

The subsequent repair of the bulkhead did not conform to Boeing's approved repair methods. The Boeing technicians fixing the aircraft used two separate doubler plates, one with two rows of rivets and one with only one row when the procedure called for one continuous doubler plate with three rows of rivets to reinforce the damaged bulkhead.[24] The incorrect repair reduced the part's resistance to metal fatigue to about 70% compared to the correctly executed repair. According to the Federal Aviation Administration, the one "doubler plate" which was specified for the job (the Federal Aviation Administration calls it a "splice plate" — essentially a patch) was cut into two pieces parallel to the stress crack it was intended to reinforce, "to make it fit".[25] This negated the effectiveness of one of the rows of rivets. During the investigation, Boeing calculated that this incorrect installation would fail after approximately 10,000 pressurizations; the aircraft accomplished 12,318 successful flights from the time that the faulty repair was made to when the crash happened.

China Airlines Flight 611 involved a Boeing 747 aircraft that crashed in Taiwan Strait in 2002 on a flight from Taipei to Hong Kong, also because of faulty maintenance done on damage caused by a tailstrike accident long before the crash date, finally causing the aircraft's structure to fail and disintegrate in flight.

British European Airways Flight 706 - Another crash caused by failure of the aft pressure bulkhead. The plane's horizontal stabilizer was blown off, resulting in a loss of pitch control. All 63 on board died.

[DaveReidUK]

As a "layman" and certainly no aviation expert, is it possible that this was caused by the rear door failing with resulting catastrophic decompression as was the case with Tristars?

That description doesn't fit the circumstances under which any TriStar losses occurred. Are you thinking of the DC-10, perhaps?

[Hasherucf]

Does anyone know where the FDR/CVR are going for analysis?. Hoping the Egyptians aren't going to try hashing it out themselves.

[keesje]

I see some hydraulic leakage under portside rudder, 10 days ago, but also on this same cn 663 years ago.

http://cdn-www.airliners.net/aviation-photos/photos/7/6/3/2725367.jpg

Took a look at other A321s, it's not very typical for the type. Probably a seal, valve / connection. Luckily both FDR's and the complete wreckage were found so w'll know soon enough.

[PAXfips]

Does anyone know where the FDR/CVR are going for analysis?. Hoping the Egyptians aren't going to try hashing it out themselves.
Moscow (as per RT ticker y'day).

[oleostrut]

"I see some hydraulic leakage under portside rudder, 10 days ago, but also on this same cn 663 years ago. "

I saw that staining and thought it was from APU exhaust (as in running the APU into the wind and having exhaust blow back )

[VinRouge]

A lot of the outwards bending is visible on both sides of the rudder/rear fuselage wreckage. My post 173 has a link to a picture. I also postulated that pressure hull failure at the rear bulkhead could be the cause of flight control difficulties.

Interesting in the picture I have linked, you can see a line along which the horizontal stab failed along the right hand side... It's quite a deep gouge.

See here:

http://www.pprune.org/9164485-post173.html