BREAKING NEWS: airliner missing within Egyptian FIR

[Kulverstukas]

Also both engine's hood shows oil traces.

[tmny]

China Airlines Flight 611 had also visible signs before it break up in flight.

[Chronus]

The last update from the FCO is dated 15 October 2015. For map of the areas affected see:

https://assets.digital.cabinet-office.gov.uk/media/55cf24e840f0b61371000021/150812_Egypt_jpeg.jpg

Al Arsih is within the red " Advice against all travel " area on the map.

What is not known is whether there were any hostilities in this red zone.

[keesje]

I looked at a lot of other 321s and do not see the hydraulic traces under the rudder. Its clearly visible on this recent picture. Either bad cleaning or a persistant leakage.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/oct/31/airbus-a320-safety-record-in-spotlight-after-egypt-plane-crash#img-1

[Wellfan]

Beeb are reporting that the plane broke up in mid air Sinai plane crash: Russian aircraft 'broke up in mid air' - BBC News (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-34691910)

[ShotOne]

Even a very major hydraulic leak doesn't make an airliner fall out of the sky

[CVJ]

Al Jazeera reporting break up at high altitude.
Bodies found 8 miles from other wreckage

[flightradar]

Seems most likely there are two possible causes:

1) midair breakup due to a mechanical fault. Who knows? It's all speculation here. We have to wait till the black box reports are done. No one seems to know why the captain was reputedly concerned about the plane condition.

2) insider with a bomb due to poor security. Egyptian authorities would be keen to play this down. But from the pax list this seems unlikely, as they were all Russian, unless something was planted in the cargo, so it can't be completey ruled out.

However this is just speculation again. This thread is just full of it.

[CONSO]

the emerging pictures and information on the wreckage spread tend to suggest a high altitude break up. ...

Since it is now reported that bodies are being found up to 8 miles from wreckage, a high alt breakup is quite likely

As to possible reasons- I note that the upper part of tail in front of pressure bulkhead is a very clean break along a panel- frame join. I believe this infers a tensile type break on the upper half ( tail cone- bulkhead generally bending DOWN assuming level - upright flight for reference ).

This could infer a major change in elevator position developing enough force to tear the tail off. Perhaps a total control servo - cable- failure or hard over ? :confused:


Thus we must simply wait till at least a preliminary readout from FDR and CVR is public.

Stuff happens !!:ugh:

[lomapaseo]

midair breakup due to a mechanical fault. Who knows? It's all speculation here. We have to wait till the black box reports are done. No one seems to know why the captain was reputedly concerned about the plane condition.

Black boxes are not the key and end-all. Much can be learned by examination of the wreckage.

We need to stop relying on black boxes to tell-all ... they don't

[Sokol]

2) insider with a bomb due to poor security. Egyptian authorities would be keen to play this down. But from the pax list this seems unlikely, as they were all Russian, unless something was planted in the cargo, so it can't be completey ruled out.

It is more likely if you know the current situation in Chechnya. Even with only russian citicens on Board. Chechens as I know are Muslims too.

A hydraulic failure is my best bet for the main reason at the moment, as the Airbus Rules dont let you do maneuvers on such a high G-Load that the Airframe would break apart.

[Mick Stability]

This would seem to fit the profile of a barometric device with a timer, perhaps loaded at Sharm.

I don't know many other things that would chop a 321 in half.

[stuckgear]

The aircraft reportedly went back into service in mid-February 2002, some 3 months later. So even allowing for a bit of initial argy-bargying over the repair scheme and the admin, it sounds like some fairly extensive work needed to be done.

It would have made sense that if the aircraft was down for structural check or modification that heavy check items were completed during the downtime, including engine, APU or gear depending on the remaining times of LLP's.

Without looking at the Mx records it's just pure speculation.

[stuckgear]

A high altitude break up is hardly a ground breaking 'discovery' that was known, pretty much, in the opening hours.

[henra]

I don't know many other things that would chop a 321 in half.

Apart from an aft pressure bulkhead or main longeron or other structural failure due to previous damage and subsequent corrosion/fracture propagation, e.g. due to a tail strike...


Let's not rush to conclusions

[stuckgear]

black boxes do not tell all, but with absence of other evidence it may be the best we'll get.Debris analysis by competent and educated team can tell a whole lot. Aircraft loss causes have been determined by debris analysis. The NTSB and AAIB has done some incredible work in the past on such.

[wrecker]

Those of us with long memories will remember the accident to GAPEC in Belgium where the rear pressure bulkhead failed due to leakage from an adjacent toilet which cased hidden corrosion. The break up sequence appeared similar.

[Kulverstukas]

https://russian.rt.com/static//0/6/0/0603ef21920e1098b18140495f6d52fd64fdb070.jpg

https://russian.rt.com/static//3/d/3/3d371dae0dce672e611dd3c74f4149a43120470b.jpg

via (https://russian.rt.com/article/127232)

res is plane crash site, blue - debris found.

more photos here: http://aviaforum.ru/threads/katastrofa-a321-kogalymavia-metrojet-na-sinae-informacija.42685/page-5

[oleostrut]

In photo 3 above, are those the engines shown in the middle box?

[winterymix]

Not saying it is the case here, esp. we don't know much,

if pilot or co-pilot states displeasure with mechanical condition of a commercial airliner, can/will the administrators over ride and insist that the flight be flown as is? I don't think it happens like that in N. America but what about elsewhere?

Feeling bad about this crash, something stinks.

[GSLOC]

Debris field narrow ellipse aprox 8 km by 4 km.

Russian CAA ordered Metrojet to hault A321 operations (not at once though) for tech inspection in coming days.

[Kulverstukas]

Photos EPA / Khaled Elfiqi (1/1) via aviaforum.ru


http://cdn.aviaforum.ru/images/2015/11/720205_9c10a8b6373ed7815cbcad060b04a36f.jpg


http://cdn.aviaforum.ru/images/2015/11/720206_6b191101ab6b22a78ed425deabfdf0cc.jpg


http://cdn.aviaforum.ru/images/2015/11/720207_1fba1063109498efdafa4c20bdb33089.jpg


http://cdn.aviaforum.ru/images/2015/11/720208_07170abea3931fe57002b0b84cbbd278.jpg


http://cdn.aviaforum.ru/images/2015/11/720209_0828818682b08680dd431ba2409e3092.jpg


http://cdn.aviaforum.ru/images/2015/11/720210_836d11a364217c07a65d98ebc6d5e733.jpg


http://cdn.aviaforum.ru/images/2015/11/720211_5a8b78bf95c122c7b904d4da0e5deb9b.jpg


http://cdn.aviaforum.ru/images/2015/11/720212_c3b6f30bc3943cab80996b22082f70f2.jpg


http://cdn.aviaforum.ru/images/2015/11/720213_0b791a1107742836990fb4fbda77db02.jpg


http://cdn.aviaforum.ru/images/2015/11/720214_b198efd426f05cc2525be9973d484486.jpg

[Kulverstukas]

Photos EPA / Khaled Elfiqi (1/2) via aviaforum.ru

http://cdn.aviaforum.ru/images/2015/11/720215_17d284189a1b7d89f79f21b9b3f2b505.jpg


http://cdn.aviaforum.ru/images/2015/11/720216_763ce8153b82ef59441f2a28a1c8db12.jpg


http://cdn.aviaforum.ru/images/2015/11/720217_4914d2f758e839d0e4c3f4347ed56f1e.jpg


http://cdn.aviaforum.ru/images/2015/11/720218_a54e6e1526af013505616977d68defdc.jpg


http://cdn.aviaforum.ru/images/2015/11/720219_70d1754916cf1b866f0620433deaef00.jpg


http://cdn.aviaforum.ru/images/2015/11/720220_a1d247ad42b0433e3bc64e536f5defaa.jpg



http://cdn.aviaforum.ru/images/2015/11/720221_5ad1af3c9e62cf6c8f72b31111cdb09b.jpg

[Pontius Navigator]

WM, there are degrees of displeasure and degrees of aircrew reaction to management pressure.

Not suggesting that here but lots of aircraft are known to be 'rogue' in one way or another. They are not necessarily unsafe just awkward to fly. What the 1st pilot is alleged to have said to his wife is on the lower order. Now if she says he complained to management that is something else.

[Kulverstukas]

Photo: REUTERS/Stringer

http://cdnimg.rg.ru/i/gallery/22134b60/1_b85318bd.jpg

via RG.RU

[wrecker]

Does the AB 321 Contain significant carbon fibre in its construction?
If so that debris field will be very dangerous.

[Kulverstukas]

What the 1st pilot is alleged to have said to his wife is on the lower order.

To his ex wife as was said in Russian text.

[Wageslave]

if pilot or co-pilot states displeasure with mechanical condition of a commercial airliner, can/will the administrators over ride and insist that the flight be flown as is? I don't think it happens like that in N. America but what about elsewhere?

Of course they "can". Whether they will or not is an entirely different matter.

I have personal experience of a small UK scheduled airline that operated for years with no action taken despite numerous reports (some detailed to the nth degree) to the CAA of their appalling maintenance (or rather lack of it), quite apart from the heinous operational offences they committed on a regular basis. Years after I left I was still hearing the same stories from younger colleagues who had worked for them recently. Anyone who flew for that ghastly outfit will name it instantly.

Nothing was done.

[Pontius Navigator]

"To his daughter", said his wife.

Not exactly a primary source.

[Kulverstukas]

This two puzzles me a bit:

Photos REUTERS/Mohamed Abd El Ghany

http://cdnimg.rg.ru/i/gallery/22134b60/2_658b949f.jpg

http://cdnimg.rg.ru/i/gallery/22134b60/3_f8a511b6.jpg

Why Mi-24?

[Mo122]

i think it is more an Egyptian Apache

[Cows getting bigger]

Err, because that's an AH-64?

[GSLOC]

Site overview footage.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0cCf52DdHwM

[Cows getting bigger]

So, pretty much intact aircraft hitting ground with no significant forward velocity. The tail section is somewhere different (any idea of displacement?) as are the engines.

[Mo122]

the tail section looks like it is far from the main fuselage crash area

[Kulverstukas]

Hm... Lets me ask it another way - why military attack copter loaded at crash site? Rescue team is afraid that place is unsafe?

[Machinbird]

Why Mi-24? To keep someone who is looking for a soft target at a distance.
This isn't the safest area of the world.

[GSLOC]

the tail section looks like it is far from the main fuselage crash area

Tail position reported about 5 km from nose section.

[EI-mech]

Irish experts to assist Egypt crash investigation - RTÉ News (http://www.rte.ie/news/2015/1101/738891-irish-aviation-team-egypt-crash/)

Two AAIU investigators and one IAA expert travelling to assist with the investigation.

[Tourist]

Egypt is unsafe.

If you don't know what happened and an aircraft has come down why not take along some protection?

[WHBM]

I've not seen any further information on any maintenance work that apparently delayed departure from Sharm el Sheikh.

The aircraft appears to have ferried from the Moscow DME base to St Petersburg on Thursday morning, and then set off on a somewhat extended "W" from there to Sharm, returning to Samara in southern central Russia by Friday morning, straight back to Sharm, but seemingly on the ground there for 12 hours before departing back to St Petersburg on Saturday morning. There are accounts above of maintenance work at Sharm during this extended layover. What was it ?

[HeartyMeatballs]

I thought it was just a night stop rather than an extended layover. The maintenance was likely a daily/A check.

[GSLOC]

Aside from other info on Metrojet: airline tried to sue Russian CAA in the past for ordering them to install ice detection sensors on A321 fleet. Very telling on safety attitude.

[Chronus]

The absence of ground scorch marks around the well incinerated centre section debris field suggests a large part of the airframe was ablaze before impact with terrain. It exhibits the hall marks of an intense dynamic fuel fed fire, consuming much of the centre section of the airframe in flight, at altitude.

[Modesto]

Regarding the Apache circling the crash site...

I'm not a pilot and have no specific expertise whatsoever in regards to aviation. Really appreciate the insights on this forum, if a bit scattered..

I am however a close Egypt watcher and years-long resident. Just to lend a bit of context here:

Egypt is.... militarized. They fly Apaches and F-16s around central Cairo every now and then just for the heck of it. As noted, central Sinai is a lawless area with some level of threat, but really, Egypt generally and the current government in particular is enamored with military hardware and there's no more reason for them to fly attack aircraft around the area other than that they can.

Also, people need to take everything and anything the government of Egypt says with a high degree of skepticism. That's already been proven with this distress call that wasn't, and general radar confusion yesterday with the plane reported in Cyprus and Turkey. Honestly I can't think of anything less transparent than a joint Russian-Egyptian investigation. Hopefully Airbus and other third party involvement will help keep this process in check.

Finally, on the purely speculative point of Sharm security... having lived in many continents and countries around the world, my personal feeling is that it is totally plausible that local sympathizers could easily place something on board. Egyptian security is just short of a joke, especially at the smaller airports outside of Cairo.

Thanks again for the interesting conversation here. Appreciate the professional perspectives.

[b1lanc]

Why higher than 26000 feet? Wouldn't that suggest some SAM capability as I thought MANPADs were limited to 10-15000 ft max altitude? Keep in mind that there is some high terrain in the proximity. Not buying into the ISIS story, but quite a number of reports over the last few months about the 'newer' Russian arms being delivered to and used by the insurgents against Egypt.

[Pontius Navigator]

Why higher than 26000 feet?

Wasn't there some mention of drift down? 260 allows for an aircraft to descend and leave the area before dropping into MANPAD range?

[LiamNCL]

You can often see Russian aircraft on the ground for longer periods of time at Sharm el Sheikh , When i was there you would see Nordwind and UTair laying around all day so its not unusual for a aircraft to be on the ground there overnight

[Mr Optimistic]

(pax) If I am looking at the video of debris correctly, the wings and fwd fuselage struck the ground level with low fwd speed, but where is the rear fuselage? Did it break at the wing box as well as the tail section?

[AnglianAV8R]

Watch this video at 1:50 you will see the tail lying at some distance from the main wreckage. Whilst the main wreckage is burnt out, the tail is relatively pristine. Also, it is interesting to note that the main debris of wings/fuselage appears to be missing any fuselage aft of the wings.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0cCf52DdHwM

[PersonFromPorlock]

I'm struck by the similarity of these three holes in the picture's foreground to shrapnel damage:
https://img-fotki.yandex.ru/get/15507/27652091.3c1/0_9b7bb_77a4a532_XL.jpg

Can anyone suggest how else a wing impacting inverted could have sustained these sharply defined, punched inward, holes?

[andrasz]

@ Modesto

You speak with the wisdom of someone who saw and knows. Having called that fine land home for some years, I can only second your every word.

Ahlan wa'Sahlan

[HundredPercentPlease]

The EASA Safety Information Bulletin for North Sinai has been around since last year:

http://ad.easa.europa.eu/blob/SIB_201430R1_Egypt_Sinai_Peninsula_Airspace.pdf/SIB_2014-30R1_1

There has been much mis-information about this zone, and airlines who do and don't fly through it. Worth reading it to find what it is we have been avoiding for a while now.

We route to avoid it (including above FL260), always.

[Kubarque]

Quote:

"but where is the rear fuselage? Did it break at the wing box as well as the tail section?"

Blown to smithereens?

[Airbubba]

Can anyone suggest how else a wing impacting inverted could have sustained these sharply defined, punched inward, holes?

For comparison, here is a hi-res picture of a piece of the MH17 wreckage with what were deemed to be missile warhead puncture marks:

http://www.theunhivedmind.com/wordpress3/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/flightmh17370giant.jpg

You can see the many small pits on the surface of the MH17 panels just under the cockpit window.

Is that part of the A321 wingtip in the Egypt crash aluminum or plastic?

[Machinbird]

It is fairly clear that the tail came off/ apart while inflight.
One of the major functions of the tail is to supply down force to balance the wing's pitching moment. If the tail is suddenly removed, the aircraft will pitch down abruptly and its pitch rate momentum may be sufficient to carry into another cycle if the initial pitchover does not destroy the wing integrity/symmetry completely.

Another function of the tail is to minimize yaw. With sufficient yaw, the static system may become pressurized by dynamic airflow causing altimetry measuring systems to indicate too low and rate of climb indications to go strongly negative. Likewise, if the aircraft then momentarily points back into the airflow, altitude will appear to increase and rate of climb will go strongly positive.

Once the aircraft pitches strongly nose down, deceleration will be extreme, and the inertial system will respond assuming it is still powered. The only source of electrical power is the engines, and the loss of data at ~FL280 is probably indicative that the engines were shed at that point. The RAT system probably would not function in such a chaotic environment.

One characteristic of Airbus C* aircraft control systems is that they attempt to maintain their velocity vector direction until disturbed by an outside force. The slight decrease in climb rate at 04:12:34 might result from air venting through a fuselage rupture causing a net nose down force.

Structural failures can be instantaneous, but frequently there is a cascading breakup sequence. I suspect that there was such a cascade of failures in this case leading to the obvious departure from controlled flight.

The FR24 data should be looked at in this context.

[Chu Chu]

That looks not unlike what happens when aluminum melts, and then drops away when the oxide layer holding it together breaks. Usually when I'm about to put the filler rod to it . . .

[Pontius Navigator]

Hundredpercent, can you comment on the 260 restriction with a presumed threat ceiling of 15k?

[Smott999]

Has there been sign of HS ?
If we make the guess that there was a rear pressure bulkhead failure, would that not potentially carry away some/all of HS?

The pics I've seen show the empennage but with only a somewhat fractured VS....

[andrasz]

100+ posts and six pages down only two meaningful pieces of information emerged since I posted a summary (http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/569907-breaking-news-airliner-missing-within-egyptian-fir-11.html#post9164634) this morning, the satellite map of the main wreckage locations and the video of the crash site, both confirming my initial assessment.

It is now confirmed that the tailplane separated early in the breakup sequence (the large tail part is located 2.3 kilometres from the main wreckage), with most of the rear fuselage disintegrating up till the wing box, however front of that the structure remained essentially intact and fell to the ground in one piece.

What is highly significant (and I'm surprised nobody else picked this up) is that the entire horizontal stabilizer is missing from the tail wreckage. On some of the published photos it is possible to see that the tail cone aft of the rear pressure bulkhead with the HS structure and APU has cleanly broken away. The tail cone with the APU is located about 400 metres to the South of the tail structure, however I have not seen any photo or video of the Horizontal Stabilizeter (perhaps it is the piece of wreckage marked on the map another couple of hundred metres south of the APU/tailcone).

We do not yet know whether the separation of the tail was a cause or effect, however the tail structure is a fairly strong one and usually survives low velocity ground impacts in one piece even if the rest of the airplane disintegrates. A rupture of the rear pressure bulkhead could produce exactly the kind of damage to the tail as we are seeing, and would render the aircraft instantly uncontrollable.

Of course an alternate explanation would be an explosion in the rear fuselage, but the lack of any credible claim for responsibility makes that scenario more unlikely (such actions are typically made to publicise a cause, no matter how perverted it may be, keeping silent about it defeats the whole point).

[angels]

I think it would be fairly obvious if this plane had been shot down by a SAM. It was evident from the word go that MH17 was and that was with interested parties at the crash site and in the area trying to cover it up.

You would need a BUK-style missile to get to a plane's cruise height. ISIS don't have that sort of weaponry. Even if mobile systems did fall into their hands in Libya (which is highly doubtful) you can't drive them across the desert to Sinai without someone noticing.

My son went through Sharm earlier this year. He says the security was 'standard' although there were loads of army guards there.

[Smott999]

To be fair, I did ask just recently about the HS a few posts up....

I've been wondering if a RPB blowout would blow it away from the rest of the empennage.

Wondering if they have found it, as it does not seem to be part of what's left of the tail.....

[pavlik1]

@ Machinbird

Very plausible :D

[racedo]

I think it would be fairly obvious if this plane had been shot down by a SAM. It was evident from the word go that MH17 was and that was with interested parties at the crash site and in the area trying to cover it up.

You would need a BUK-style missile to get to a plane's cruise height. ISIS don't have that sort of weaponry. Even if mobile systems did fall into their hands in Libya (which is highly doubtful) you can't drive them across the desert to Sinai without someone noticing.

My son went through Sharm earlier this year. He says the security was 'standard' although there were loads of army guards there.

Israeli's not calling it and lets face it they have enough "equipment" watching for missile launches.

[andrasz]

@ Smott999


Indeed you did, while I was typing.

The missing HS together with the APU and the entire tail cone is consistent with a RPB rupture. Given that the rest of the tail structure has reached the ground relatively whole and intact, if this was indeed the case the investigators probably know it already.

[lomapaseo]

Chronus

The absence of ground scorch marks around the well incinerated centre section debris field suggests a large part of the airframe was ablaze before impact with terrain. It exhibits the hall marks of an intense dynamic fuel fed fire, consuming much of the centre section of the airframe in flight, at altitude.

Not conclusive

There are plenty of other explanations and evidence to examine.

[deptrai]

Honestly I can't think of anything less transparent than a joint Russian-Egyptian investigation

I have enough faith in Russian investigators. You can say what you want about Russians, but they have some excellent aviators, engineers, and experts. I do think they will be able to discover what happened. There should be enough clues now, wreckage, recorders, radar data, mx records; further, there will be quite a bit of public pressure in Russia to figure this out.

[Back at NH]

http://www.pprune.org/<a href=http://s586.photobucket.com/user/NigelC/media/a321APU_zpsqhe2whuz.png.html target=_blank>[IMG]http://i586.photobucket.com/albums/ss304/NigelC/a321APU_zpsqhe2whuz.pnghttp://i586.photobucket.com/albums/ss304/NigelC/a321APU_zpsqhe2whuz.png (http://s586.photobucket.com/user/NigelC/media/a321APU_zpsqhe2whuz.png.html)

[Ian W]

Even a very major hydraulic leak doesn't make an airliner fall out of the sky

A persistent leak can cause delamination of the metal/plastic sandwich that makes up the skin of the aircraft and of the compoisites in other components. In the wrong area the delamination could cause stresses, weakness and fatigue in unexpected ways that could lead to unexpected rupture of the skin if it is part of the pressure vessel or complete failure of major components if it is actually a load bearing area.

Flaw Found In Airbus Rudders: NTSB Orders Inspection Of AA 587 Aircraft | March 31, 2006 | www.rockawave.com | Wave of Long Island (http://www.rockawave.com/news/2006-03-31/Community/028.html)

[Chronus]

LOMAPASEO

Neither did I suggest it was "conclusive" nor did I ever entertain such thought.

"There are plenty of other explanations and evidence to examine."

But of course there is much evidence to examine and am sure these will be considered as and when they become known.

My comments were no more than observations derived from the photographic evidence appearing on this forum. Metal scorched and melted by intense fire and heat laying on an arid soil which does not exhibit any signs of the effects of such fire and heat. Would it therefore be incorrect to assume that there was no fuel discharged from ruptured tanks when a section of the aircraft impacted the ground. If this assumption is correct, would it not reasonably follow that the fuel must have burned whilst the aircraft, intact or otherwise, was in the air.

Do you have any other explanations or evidence for us to examine and comment on.

[ShotOne]

That's a very red herring, Ian W. ; A321 flaps, ailerons and spoilers are of composites. Even if they'd been made of paper mâché it wouldn't explain this accident

[Mr Optimistic]

Machinbird, why would the rear fuselage disintegrate under inertial and aerodynamic loads? Break apart yes, but would you not expect to see large sections?

[Ian W]

That's a very red herring, Ian W. ; A321 flaps, ailerons and spoilers are of composites. Even if they'd been made of paper mâché it wouldn't explain this accident

Other people are not so laisse faire and sanguine about such problems.

Letter to NTSB regarding AA 587 - Airline Pilot Central Forums (http://www.airlinepilotforums.com/major/3690-letter-ntsb-regarding-aa-587-a.html)

But I know that you won't let anything concern you.

[tubby linton]

The rear fuselage would contain most of the baggage but it is also where an ACT ( additional centre fuel tank) would be located if fitted..
From the photographs currently released we have not yet seen many of the heavy items, such as the main landing gear, complete engines and the horizontal stab.

[Tiennetti]

From the photographs currently released we have not yet seen many of the heavy items, such as the main landing gear, complete engines and the horizontal stab.

From a previous link, if you look at the foreground, the landing gear can be seen (actually only the rims) consistent with a retracted position
http://cdn.aviaforum.ru/images/2015/11/720213_0b791a1107742836990fb4fbda77db02.jpg

[unworry]

http://cdn.aviaforum.ru/images/2015/11/720260_19d94ef761d338430ddd24a18c13468e.jpg

[Prada]

If we assume that this piece of wreckage was not moved after crash, then does it mean that this heat damage happened before breakup?
http://www.keri.ee/crash/siinai.jpg

[VinRouge]

You would expect an in flight fire to cause fore-aft scorching rather than along the wing. Mark's like this would be impossible in flight. Where are the smoke marks aft of the fire?

[FDMII]

unworry;

The photo is of either the outboard strake for eng.#2 or the inboard strake for eng.#1, (right-hand side of either cowling). Some sooting can be seen on what is probably the lower/under side of the cowling part.

[logansi]

Of course we are not sure but i have seen a few references to inflight fire, if it was a RPB blowout, surely you wouldn't expect a fire as well?

Also another RT video shows some close up of some of the weakage

Vv_kXAFa_P8

[VinRouge]

You would with wings full of fuel and two donks spinning when it hit the deck. They don't shut down if they have a fuel supply, even if they lose control signals they keep going.

Most ground impacts, even vertical ones result in post crash fire, particularly with thirty tonnes of kerosene turned to a mist in a ground impact.

[henra]

Of course we are not sure but i have seen a few references to inflight fire, if it was a RPB blowout, surely you wouldn't expect a fire as well?


You would expect a fire when the fuselage breaks up in the area of the Center tank as a consequence of the RPB collapse. Looking at the wreckage of the front half of the fuselage this could have been the case. Again not much difference in the expected pattern for a Bomb explosion or a RPB failure. We will have to wait for the crash investigators to exclude one or the other Scenario.

[Interrogator]

This is either a complete coincidence or just another picture of the last airbus aircraft that have been lost at this kind of altitude. Any rear pressure bulkhead repairs that may have been carried out in the past (assuming previous posts are correct) would have been carried out in accordance with airbus and approved. Any damage outside of the structural repair manual is routed through airbus for an approved repair with approved inspection intervals. It is about time all these sofa based people with an Un educated opinion got a grip.

[Sober Lark]

If we assume that this piece of wreckage was not moved after crash
From images already published I think it is safe to say a good deal of the wreckage has already been disturbed.

[DaveReidUK]

Any rear pressure bulkhead repairs that may have been carried out in the past (assuming previous posts are correct) would have been carried out in accordance with airbus and approved.

Substitute "Boeing" for "Airbus" and that assumption could equally have been made (at the time of the repair) in respect of both the JAL 747SR and the Air China 747-200.

In both of those cases events proved otherwise.

[EMIT]

Interesting speculations about rear pressure bulkhead blowout, BUT,

on the pictures of the broken off tail section, don't you see a couple of doors behind the break line? Is the RPB not behind all doors, at the very end of the pressurized section?

[flash8]

Honestly I can't think of anything less transparent than a joint Russian-Egyptian investigation

Egyptian perhaps, but (Russian) MAK have a worldwide reputation and I would not for one second hesitate to accept their findings.

[KKN_]

Since graphic depiction guides a lot of interpretation, here an alternative (I have taken the liberty to modify peekay's (#200) graph (http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/569907-breaking-news-airliner-missing-within-egyptian-fir-10.html#post9164608)).

In grey, the envelope for the data, darker where three stations, lighter grey where two.

http://orogen-core.org/timdir/gac77124/altbystation_edited.png

For demonstration, added in yellow a - completely hypothetical - possible flight path that would be perfectly consistent with the given data.

The data tell that the aircraft was climbing first, and then descending (no surprise).

(note that the data is only what the onboard computers thought it was, not necessarily what it was (no matter how well -or rather not- synchronized); and we do not know how wide the "envelope" really should be).

[ricfly744]

The A321, is a longer A/C and its fuselage may be more sensible to structural damage after a very hard landing.
A previous hard landing was not reported and no one made a proper inspection.

[Suzeman]

Aviation Herald reporting on the composition of the Investigating Team


The investigation

Egypt's Accident Investigation Commission opened an investigation. The Chairman stated, that preliminary facts point towards a technical failure.

The French BEA representing the state of manufacture have dispatched two investigators and 6 advisors to Egypt to join the investigation led by Egypt. Germany's BFU representing the state of construction joined the investigation with two investigators as well as did Russia's MAK representing the state of operator with four investigators.

Crash: Metrojet A321 over Sinai on Oct 31st 2015, disappeared from radar in climb over Sinai (http://avherald.com/h?article=48e9abe4&opt=0)

[41queenspark]

Look at the heat damage its linear running longitudinal along the line of the skin

[hamster3null]

Egyptian perhaps, but (Russian) MAK have a worldwide reputation and I would not for one second hesitate to accept their findings.

They can do a decent job if they are allowed to, but there are no guarantees that they won't be told to manipulate conclusions / sit on evidence for political reasons, and there are no reasons to think that they'd refuse to cooperate.

Personally, I'm still waiting for the final report on Tatarstan Airlines Flight 363 (hull loss with 50 fatalities in November 2013.) It's been almost two years, there has been no report, and the whole thing seems to have been either forgotten or intentionally buried by MAK.

[racedo]

They can do a decent job if they are allowed to, but there are no guarantees that they won't be told to manipulate conclusions / sit on evidence for political reasons, and there are no reasons to think that they'd refuse to cooperate.

Personally, I'm still waiting for the final report on Tatarstan Airlines Flight 363 (hull loss with 50 fatalities in November 2013.) It's been almost two years, there has been no report, and the whole thing seems to have been either forgotten or intentionally buried by MAK.

AAIU have NEVER release a report regarding Ryanair Hull loss at Ciampino from 2008...

[Smott999]

I saw the pic of the tail cone a page or two back..was there definitive HS seen?

I noted a pic on another site (no source) showing what looked like a stab in the middle of a huge burned area....does that seem right?

I thought the primary scorched area of debris was wing box and forward fuselage?

[Prada]

While looking at the altitude graph given by FR24 we should assume that data received by different ground stations is exactly what aircraft sent. Also there is no question about 4 station suddenly loosing correct timing.
Thus we see exactly what aircraft altitude sensors registered. If we speculatively exclude possibility that there was some electromagnetic disturbance that invalidated analog signals from altitude sensors, then these pressure fluctuations were registered at altitude sensors. One thing that could cause such a crazy fluctuation is an unusual attitude of altitude sensor port regarding airflow.
Also, sensors and computers and transmitter still had power and plane was still almost in one piece despite crazy attitudes.
It could be that there is not much useful data on CVR and FDR if breakup started from tail part.

Huh... now I speculated enough and have to stop

[b1lanc]

From the AP,

"We are all shocked. It was a good plane. Everything checked out in 35 minutes," the official told The Associated Press on Sunday. The closest the plane came to being in trouble, he said, was three months ago when the pilot aborted takeoff halfway through because of a system error. "That's almost routine though," he said.

Was it ever confirmed that the crew did or did not request to divert due to technical difficulties?

[papershuffler]

Does Metrojet subscribe to any ACARS services? There's been no reports of messages received.

[Prada]

There is a RT video from forward part of wreckage shot from helicopter, it looks from there like wreckage is mostly undisturbed. At least bigger parts of it lie where they landed. No signs of heavy moving equipment around.
That suspicious piece of wreckage, can anyone identify where it belongs to?
It really looks like it got its fire damage before landing.

There is another suspicious piece with external soot on it. I identified it as a fuselage piece just from under second door. (from cockpit)

http://www.keri.ee/crash/siinai3.jpg

[FDMII]

Perhaps understandably, the cockpit area has been disturbed:

http://www.smugmug.com/photos/i-KJSRS4X/0/L/i-KJSRS4X-L.jpg

http://www.smugmug.com/photos/i-QbmsLv7/0/L/i-QbmsLv7-L.jpg

[Etud_lAvia]

@thcrozier:

"What % of transport aircraft suffer tail strikes and are subsequently repaired and returned to service during their service lives?"

This question is very much on my mind today. We know of two terrible accidents in Asia attributed to failure of an improper rear bulkhead repair.

If (as now seems somewhat likely) the Metrojet catastrophe may be added to this list, then the major aviation regulatory bodies around the world will surely be pressed to take a fresh look at the hazards of major damage repairs to such a critical airframe structure.

If anyone has, or knows how to find, data on the frequency of tail strikes and the "distribution curve" of consequent repair efforts, I would be very interested to see it.

How many RBH repairs, versus how many "time-bomb" blow-outs years after the repair?

[prayingmantis]

Looks like you have three corners of the aircraft in one area, and the fourth further away.

As always, I'm stating the obvious, but it always helps me to simplify things :-)

-Chris

[AirScotia]

This photo of EI-ETJ was apparently taken in May of this year (sorry, can't post picture): Photo Metrojet Airbus A321-231 EI-ETJ (http://www.planepictures.net/netshow.php?id=1369447)

Does the bottom of the rudder look quite as it should?

[thcrozier]

I count 57 on this list, which runs from March '07 to August '15.

The Aviation Herald (http://avherald.com/h?search_term=tailstrike&opt=0&dosearch=1&search.x=0&search.y=0)

[auraflyer]

Perhaps understandably, the cockpit area has been disturbed:

Top picture quite clearly shows it landed inverted, massive crush damage

[RatherBeFlying]

Possibly an initial phase of a structural failure simply allowed the tail section to flex in response to pitch inputs which would quickly make pitch control problematic both for the computers and the crew.

Attitude excursions would add to the forces flexing the remainder of structure between the fuselage and tail until it came off at which time power and data would likely be lost to the CVR and FDR.

CVR noises just before breakup should allow investigators to distinguish between structural failure and explosion.

It will take time.

[peekay4]

I count 57 on this list, which runs from March '07 to August '15.
Many of them are duplicates / updates of old incidents; looks like there are 45 unique instances in your list.

[thcrozier]

So call it 5 a year. I would hope the frequency is decreasing given modern Cockpit Displays. Still, it would be interesting to compare failure rates in repaired vs never damaged aircraft.

[andrasz]

on the pictures of the broken off tail section, don't you see a couple of doors behind the break line? On some photos taken during the Egyptian PM-s visit to the site (posted on AVH) it is clearly visible from both angles that the entre rear section of the fuselage AFT of the rear doors (and roughly corresponding to the position of the RPB) is missing with what is apparently a fairly clean break. This is hidden under the crushed VS and crumpled remaining top fuselage skin and not visible on the more recent photos of the tail section. From the satellite map/video one may conclude that the tail-cone with the APU is located ~400m south of the tail section, but no photos have yet surfaced of the HS.
I noted a pic on another site (no source) showing what looked like a stab in the middle of a huge burned areaThat was a pic of the 2014 August An-12 crash near Tamanrasset in Algeria, nothing to do with this event. It was originally posted on an Egyptian news site together with the first genuine photo of the crash site (the burned wing), so it looked credible. It was soon pulled from AVH and other sources.

[logansi]

So we are yet to have any idea where the HS is located?

[andrasz]

So we are yet to have any idea where the HS is located? Correct. It would not terribly surprise me to find it as the most distant piece from the main wreckage backtracking along the flight path.

Note: the piece of wreckage marked at 30*08'52"N 34*11'24"E on the satellite image COULD be it, but the resolution is not good enough to tell for sure.

[_Phoenix]

Perhaps understandably, the cockpit area has been disturbed

Perhaps both bodies of flight crew were recovered from inverted cockpit, since Egyptians declared no fool play and jumped on assumption of technical problems
Also,
The Latest: Co-Pilot's Wife: He Complained About Plane - ABC News (http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/latest-egypt-confirms-russian-plane-crashes-sinai-34872935)

[TwoHeadedTroll]

Melting point of sand is about 1700C. Burning temperature of Jet Fuel is 1500C. Therefore we wouldn't expect to see any scorch marks in the sand

[Vc10Tail]

If at all this plane was brought down by military means ...it is unlikely we will hear anything fkr a long time to come.

Crew- unlikely were a cause.The event must have been so sudden and catastrophic there was no time to communucate it.
Weather..VMC unless CAT or sone sort of mountain wave harboured in its flight path.

Technical- plane manufactured in 1997 wuth 50k+ hours, coupled with suspect naintenance shortcomings as stated by co pilot/wify leaks and the fact that Russia went to ground this type as well as previous manufacturer recall maintenance allloint with a strong bias toward mechanical structural failure as a highly probable event.

What remains ia for DFDR and CVR, naintenance tech log, maintenance history,etc to collaborate the truth.

Lets us not jump to conclusion over terrorism as until this point there us no plausible reason why there should have been a terrorist strike. If there is discontent on the land regarding government it is THEY who would have faced terrorism...not innocent tourism that bring in means of sustaining the tourism economy.Egyptians arent exactly crazy folks.

Let us wait foe the crash analysts and investigators to pronounce their thoughts. Thete us another A320 series that gas crashed sonewhere iff Indonesia. Perhaps we should divert our attention on its active thread instead! This Air Asia crash is bearing a resemblance to a previous disappearing act....

[FowlPilot]

This photo of EI-ETJ was apparently taken in May of this year (sorry, can't post picture): Photo Metrojet Airbus A321-231 EI-ETJ (http://www.planepictures.net/netshow.php?id=1369447)

Does the bottom of the rudder look quite as it should?

I agree, AirScotia, I would not want to fly in a plane with the rudder in that state.

[Prada]

Melting point of sand is about 1700C. Burning temperature of Jet Fuel is 1500C. Therefore we wouldn't expect to see any scorch marks in the sand

Aluminium ignites at 1200C.

Aluminium burns at 3800C

Burning Jetfuel leaves black soot.

Burned out plane normally leaves blackened surface with melt aluminium on it.

[jolihokistix]

Some slightly different footage? Hopefully the video should work...
Russian plane said to have broken apart in midair - News - NHK WORLD - English (http://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/english/news/20151102_06.html)

[Sober Lark]

I realise 50% of the worlds leased fleet are based in Ireland but when it is stated the aircraft EI-ETJ 'passed an IAA safety review' does anyone know what this safety review entails and when it would have been carried out?

[41queenspark]

Russian plane said to have broken apart in midair - News - NHK WORLD - English (http://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/english/news/20151102_06.html)


Look at 45 sec to 48 sec on this video run it slow. Enlarge the video

[andrasz]

Look at 45 sec to 48 sec on this video run it slow.
...and your point is... ?

[SOPS]

What are we supposed to see?

[compressor stall]

41 Queens ... one does have to be careful with grainy footage, but I must say it does look like they are placing a ruler and carefully photographing an small area that resembles an impact site on the wing.

Having said that, if true, that does not mean the source was external to the aircraft.

[EternalNY1]

Who would have a motive for shooting down a Russian plane ?

Umm.. ISIS? :ugh:

They are the ones claiming responsibility. And Russia did just launch a massive barrage against them.

The warnings given to German carriers only warned about flying below FL260 in the area of this flight and this flight was above that but anything's possible.

POTENTIAL RISK TO AVIATION OVERFLYING THIS AREA BELOW FL260 AND TAKE OFF / LANDING AT ALL AIRPORTS FROM DEDICATED ANTI-AVIATION AND GROUND TO GROUND WEAPONRY.

[neil9327]

The latest Daily Mail article quotes one of the posts on here ("StopStart" post 233 on 1st Nov 2015, 11:47):

"An aviation expert writing on pprune, an internet forum for professional pilots, claimed the tail section of the aircraft shows evidence of 'the fuselage skin peeling outwards possibly indicative of a force acting outwards from within'."

So was it a bomb? Experts reveal Russian passenger plane broke up at high altitude - as the bodies of 144 victims are flown back to St Petersburg | Daily Mail Online (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3299886/So-bomb-Experts-reveal-Russian-passenger-plane-broke-high-altitude-bodies-144-victims-flown-St-Petersburg.html)

[tatelyle]

POTENTIAL RISK TO AVIATION OVERFLYING THIS AREA BELOW FL260After the Malaysia shoot-down, one wonders why anyone would consider flying over an active conflict zone at any level. Can you really be certain of the weaponry they have in that region? Why not fly up the Gulf to the Delta and the Med, and then plot a course home? Are costs that tight, that you have to take the direct and more risky route?

[Wokkafans]

Russian airline blames cause on external activity.

https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/661120498852564992

[skridlov]

I'm not in aviation however given what's plainly visible in the last photograph, I'm surprised there has been no comment, assuming this really is the same aircraft. What appears to be discoloration on the VS base extending down around a seam encircling the tail-cone join (sorry if this is incorrect nomenclature).

[Kulverstukas]

Kolavia reps told on briefing they hold now that plane was checked in tail area for repair of structural damage condition in 2014 as part of D-Check.

[golf yankee one one]

The list of tailstrikes from The Aviation Herald in recent years posted by thcrozier makes interesting reading.

Of 45 incidents, 18 are on landing, 20 on takeoff, and 7 unspecified. Despite a non-engineering background, it would seem likely that a landing tailstrike carries a much greater risk of damage to the aircraft's structure, with possible long term consequences. Indeed some take off incidents are described as "tailscrapes"

Certain aircraft types seem more prone to these incidents, though the denominator number of fleet size must also be factored in. For most types there have only been one or two incidents, but the B738 has had 8 takeoff tailstrikes and two landing tailstrikes (fleet 3800+) compared to A320/321 with zero takeoff tailstrikes and four landing tailstrikes for each variant (fleets 4000+ and 1100+) The A319 seems to have been tailstrike free for the years that this list covers.

My question for the professionals would be this - is there any objective way of measuring the force involved in a particular tailstrike?

[flynerd]

For the sake of all the other AC flying today that have had tailstrikes, I hope that this does not resolve to be from the tail strike and repair.

I am prepared to wait on an official report, so will not speculate (yet).

FN

[ROKNA]

Photo in Daily Mail

Did a BOMB blow apart Russian Metrojet plane in Sinai? | Daily Mail Online (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3299886/So-bomb-Experts-reveal-Russian-passenger-plane-broke-high-altitude-bodies-144-victims-flown-St-Petersburg.html)

Front of aircraft part of cockpit is inverted
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/11/01/14/2E024DF400000578-3299019-image-a-56_1446387682191.jpg

Burned out wing also looks to be inverted
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/11/01/16/2E02425400000578-3299019-image-a-8_1446394886691.jpg

Tail section separate debris field, loss of rudder, elevators or rear pressure bulkhead?

[Ranger One]

Kolavia reps told on briefing they hold now that plane was checked in tail area for repair of structural damage condition in 2014 as part of D-Check.

And how many heavy checks did JAL 123 have in the 12,000-odd cycles before that repair let go? I wouldn't attach any great weight at all to the fact that a check was performed in 2014.

[londonman]

Latest press release 'external activity'.

Or the start of an attempt by the airline to avoid taking responsibility if it turns out to be down to inadequate repairs post-tail-strike or poor maintenance - period ?

Take your choice.

[Etud_lAvia]

This ought to be of special interest to all you airline professionals.

From a report of Russian news service RIA Novosti, an audit of Kogalymavia (the corporation operating aircraft under the brand Metrojet), undertaken as part of the accident investigation, has discovered that wages are two months in arrears (выявлена задолженность по заработной плате за 2 месяца).

Incomprehensible as it may seem to those of us from the West, there are numerous precedents for Russians continuing at their jobs during extended periods while their employer is too cash poor to pay them.

We can try to imagine the ramifications for airline operations, of being too broke to pay workers.
____________________________

I try to console myself by hoping that gross structural failure occurred at cruise altitude, with enough Gs to prevent use of O2 masks. If it played out that way, maybe all were beyond pain or fear within about 20 seconds ...

[logansi]

Notice no-one had posted anything about this but it does appear the split of the tail section, is right near the back edge of the rear cargo hold door - would i be right in saying this? Right near the Airbus a321 logo

[clearedtocross]

In earlier posts assumptions were made about ADS-B, some correct and some others slightly less. These notes should help to clarify.


ADS-B was implemented for the sole purpose of traffic information and collision avoidance provided to airborne and groundbased equipment. Tracking over time was and is not a main goal.


Although data may be interrogated, the transmitters mostly send it insollicited and once per second in a so called broadcast (to anybody listening) , hence the B after ADS. Many aircraft broadcasting once per second within the range of about 100 nautical miles require the following characteristics:
Messages must be short and well distributed over the 1 second period. As the data is repeated, there is no error correction required, but error recognition must be excellent When a message is corrupted, the system can wait for the next one in sequence.


Data is not broadcast in one long message but sliced into parts (registers) containing no more than 56 bits (7 bytes) and protected against wrong reading by a 24 bit parity which provides reliable error detection. It takes about 1/10000th of a second to send a slice, so the theoretical max number of well distributed broadcasts would be 10000 within the same range. The practical limit is of course far less and even if there are only 2 aircraft within range, they may occasionally block each other out.


Short messages mean data condensed to the minimum. Thus e.g a timestamp in not included as it is meaningless in real time navigation. Anything else than 3d-position, 3d-vector and aircraft id is not repeated in the standard broadcast. It may be interrogated though in special cases and TCAS advisories may be exchanged between aircraft. More data can be sent as a response to a radar scan by means of mode S transponders. The last thing one would do is synchronize all the broadcasts as they would effectively block each other out within the same range.


Data sources may be different. The most simple ADS-B device, the FLARM, derives all values from an internal GPS. In complex aircraft equipment, the data may be provided by computers or other complex sensors. Mode-S transponders send pressure altitude while FLARM send msl altitude. V-Speed may also be derived from different sensors or simply by differentiating altitude changes. Roll data is not required for collision avoidance (TCAS gives only up and down advisories, never left or right) and is therefore not part of the squitter messages. Same applies for other conditions. But there is a ground mode and an airbourne mode, ground mode not transmitting values like speed etc. If you want to know more, google “ads-b for dummies”.


Both airborne and ground equipment may now process these raw data and make assumptions about other flight parameters. But any follow-on calculation assumes a reasonable flight enveloppe. Thus, in a crash analysis, processed ADS-B data as provided by FR24 must be used cautiously.

[dmba]

http://cdn.airplane-pictures.net/images/uploaded-images/2008/12/13/31136.jpg

Can we have comparisons? Just one photo on its own doesn't really show anything...

What is normal and what isn't?

[Golf-Mike-Mike]

@ logansi. Yes I was also thinking of baggage door latches and the Turkish DC10 crash being similar. But who knows ?

[logansi]

@Golf-Mike-Mike - Personally i was thinking along the lines of bomb in the hold, would be the most likely place the for the aircraft to slit if an explosion occurred inside but something like that would also make sence - or would it just be a weak spot anyway?

[metro301]

THR RED ACC - Bravo and thanks for saying what most were thinking.

Lets look at a realistic scenario - Russia escalates in Syria a few weeks ago, Russian airplane departing an area known for insurgent activity stops flying, abruptly in mid air, shortly after the military escalation. Hmmmmmm......

Stop with the ADS-B, Scuba tanks, Dangerous goods, AWACS, Space Aliens.

[keesje]

skridlov, (http://www.pprune.org/members/225880-skridlov) I noticed a few days ago & posted about it (#258). It's probably nothing.

A hydraulic fluid leakage from the A321-231 EI-ETJ rudder seems persistent. On this photo from 2 weeks ago it's there
Photos: Airbus A321-231 Aircraft Pictures | Airliners.net (http://www.airliners.net/photo/Metrojet-(Kolavia)/Airbus-A321-231/2725367/L/&sid=39c12e7a92daf94840e110569e89003d)

The leakage has been going on for at least 2-3 years. Looking further at similar age A321s, it is not typical. 2013:
Photos: Airbus A321-231 Aircraft Pictures | Airliners.net (http://www.airliners.net/photo/TUI-Russia-(MetroJet)/Airbus-A321-231/2366069/L/&sid=5ff9bd9dc218f8027c71b88b1f26bb68)

[FE Hoppy]

Anyone remember the size of the debris field from the Lockerbie bomb?

From my memory it was something like 80 miles not 8. If there was a bomb inside the pressure hull I would expect something similar. If the stab departed I would expect the aircraft to tumble until it broke up at a much lower horizontal velocity and therefore a smaller debris field.

[mightyauster]

OK, I'll ask again. Please excuse my non-professional interest.
Photo Metrojet Airbus A321-231 EI-ETJ
This link posted previously, seems to show something that may be related to the loss of this aircraft (corrosion or fluid leakage?). Or doesn't it?
Perhaps someone familiar with the maintenance might care to comment?

The marks on the bottom of the rudder and fin are made by Skydrol, a phosphate ester based hydraulic fluid, which is really good at stripping paint and softening some plastics. It will also corrode titanium when heated. It is really evil cr@p to handle. The tail surfaces on the A320 family are carbon fibre reinforced plastic (CFRP). It's highly unlikely the amount Skydrol affected paint on the aircraft in the picture is enough to cause a structural issue, it just doesn't look appealing. You will probably find that the leak rate on the rudder actuator that has caused this paint stripping is well within maintenance manual limits.

[logansi]

@FE Hoppy My thinking is that maybe the aircraft instead suffered serious damage, decompression and damage to flight controls, electronics occurred, resulting in the decent seen on Flightradar, and then the trail section broke free, due to stress/fracture etc. Of Course until we know if/if not it was bombed we don't know but i guess we should soon, cockpit voice recorder and wreckage testing will be definite

[9gmax]

Indeed, some resemblance....
remember well this crash, happened in the village close to where I was living at that time, I was on the crashsite before emergency services had fully deployed...

ASN Aircraft accident Vickers 951 Vanguard G-APEC Aarsele (http://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=19711002-1)

https://www.gov.uk/aaib-reports/15-1972-g-apec-2-october-1971

Some interesting reading in view of what happened to this A321....to say that the same occured is a bit strong, but not impossible...

[mitrosft]

Consider small explosive device which ruptures skin and forces Horisontal Stabilaser either to separate or to move to extreme position, with following aerodynamic forces to tear it of completely, either alone or together with tail section along old rupture/repair lines.

[thf]

Source: "a source in the committee analyzing the black box recorders"

The Russian airliner that crashed in Egypt on Saturday was not struck from the outside and the pilot did not make a distress call before it disappeared from radar, a source in the committee analyzing the black box recorders said.

The source declined to give more details but based his comments on the preliminary examination of the black boxes recovered from the flight. A civil aviation ministry source said earlier that the analysis of the flight recorders was ongoing.

Crashed Russian jet not hit from outside, no distress call made: investigator source | Reuters (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/02/us-egypt-crash-boxes-idUSKCN0SR13D20151102)

[Kulverstukas]

a source in the committee analyzing the black box recorders said.

Bearing in mind that still not even decided which part (MAK, Egypt or Airbus) will read CVR/FDR this "leaks" seems bear zero information.

[tatelyle]

Indeed, some resemblance....

ASN Aircraft accident Vickers 951 Vanguard G-APEC Aarsele (http://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=19711002-1)

(A rear bulkhead blowout)



Yes, but after that incident, Bae and Airbus always put blowout panels in the tail, to stop the vertical fin being blown apart by cabin pressure. The effectiveness of these was demonstrated in the 1986 Thai A-300 grenade incident, when the rear bulkhead failed but the cabin pressure was released.

I am presuming the A-320 series also has blow-out panels in the tail?

[StopStart]

As I'm now an "aviation expert" according to the Daily Hate I better respond to this. The skin on the other side is indeed folded inwards however look closer; the ends of the torn skin are folded outwards. The inner section has a heavy window. When the tail section hit the ground the heavy window bent the skin back in. The torn end, bending outwards, still remains in its original bent position.

Ask me anything. I'm now an official expert. In everything. :rolleyes:

[mototopo]

My question is:

Given a bomb perhaps in the rear cargo hold, it would release a blast with extreme heat around.. Now, since the main wreckage (wings, fuselage, hence forward cargo hold) has caught fire, why there is a number of baggages -supposedly coming from the rear cargo hold- intacted and not burnt?

[mitrosft]

My question is:

Given a bomb perhaps in the rear cargo hold, it would release a blast with extreme heat around.. Now, since the main wreckage (wings, fuselage, hence forward cargo hold) has caught fire, why there is a number of baggages -supposedly coming from the rear cargo hold- intacted and not burnt?

Suppose the bomb is somewhere near the aft cargo door and ruptures the fuselage, enough to break tail lose, most of luggage will clear the hold instantly and be spared of fire which should mostly be around fuel tanks in the wings and center of a/c.

[Vc10Tail]

Heyy Mr. Expart! Where are the seats.Did this bus kinda evaporate mostly before hitting that turf?

As I'm now an "aviation expert" according to the Daily Hate I better respond to this. The skin on the other side is indeed folded inwards however look closer; the ends of the torn skin are folded outwards. The inner section has a heavy window. When the tail section hit the ground the heavy window bent the skin back in. The torn end, bending outwards, still remains in its original bent position.

Ask me anything. I'm now an official expert. In everything. :rolleyes:

[Back at NH]

If you go through the videos of the crash area, you can see sections of floor with 2 or 3 rows of seats still attached. They are isolated so suggests they came from aft of the wing.

[PDR1]

I really hate to speculate ahead of the proper investigation, but something looks a little strange so I'm going to risk being (probably rightly) jeered at and mention it.

The photos of the crash site seem to show and extremely low-energy impact. There are no signs of a horizontal velocity at all - the wings seemed to have burned out (as you'd expect), but they appear to have been essentially intact when they arrived at their current location. The forward fuselage wreckage is lying in alignment with, and barely disconnected from, the wings. There is no classical "arrowhead" shape to the debris field, and there are no scrape-marks in the ground where the aeroplane came to a stop, which seems to suggest it dropped vertically and hit perfectly flat.

If the forward section of the fuselage had detached (sending the CG aft) this could be feasible (as for the impact site of development Typhoon DA6 in Spain), but this would need a wing and tail to still be both together and well-attached. If the theory is that this aeroplane broke-up at altitude, losing most of its tail in the process, then the CG would have gone forwards and there would have been no opposing/stabilising effect from the tailplane. So I would have expected it to either settle into a vertical dive or (if the CG fortuitously ended up in a certain very narrow range) a steady diving glide [probably inverted, due to the effect of the wing camber]. The wreckage configuration isn't really consistent with either of these scenarios - am I missing something?

PDR

[HarryMann]

Latest press release 'external activity'.

Or the start of an attempt by the airline to avoid taking responsibility if it turns out to be down to inadequate repairs post-tail-strike or poor maintenance - period ?

Take your choice.

Really... ! The conspiracy theories begin :)

[oldchina]

The tail strike occurred when the plane was being leased from ILFC (by MEA). Hardly Metrojet's fault.

In any case ILFC should know how to get a decent repair job done to protect the value of their asset.

[Mudman]

Quick google map of the debris field based on images posted on the Daily Mail (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3299886/So-bomb-Experts-reveal-Russian-passenger-plane-broke-high-altitude-bodies-144-victims-flown-St-Petersburg.html) website.

MAP Here (https://www.google.com/maps/d/edit?mid=z2eN5R4TFUjU.kiBjTxg4RTVw&usp=sharing)

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/tD8L_MVocOvdisB4iWmkD0xHcGwwcdMBtXNBGGRYb9fAtU9teHM=w614-h646-no

[lowbank]

the Lockerbie debris field was very large. i used to go fishing the rivers around there and 9 months after the crash there were several woods that were taped off and we were told strickly no way should we enter as they had not been searched. that area was newcastleton which must be 30-40 km away from lockerbie

[alphasun]

On the tailstrike issue: Presumably some of these impacts involve a lot of energy. Even if a good repair is done and no corrosive liquids are leaking etc.,, does that preclude less obvious damage, i.e. microscopic stress fractures at a distance from the tail, caused by the original impact?

[mitrosft]

Someone posted a pic of A321 dated May 2015 in SSH showing possible crack/damage on lower part of rudder ...


http://ura.ru/images/news/upload/news/228/838/1052228838/90e3664bd44858046939602cf6402f9f.jpg


http://ura.ru/images/news/upload/news/228/838/1052228838/90e3664bd44858046939602cf6402f9f.jpg

[G-CPTN]

Wouldn't that 'crack' at the base of the rudder have been assessed during the recent major inspection?

[oleostrut]

"Someone posted a pic of A321 dated May 2015 in SSH showing possible crack/damage on lower part of rudder ... "

Static discharge across the hinge due to broken/missing bonding strap?

[oleostrut]

"Wouldn't that 'crack' at the base of the rudder have been assessed during the recent major inspection?"

Yes, should have been addressed on recent D check.

[Sokol]

Suppose the bomb is somewhere near the aft cargo door and ruptures the fuselage, enough to break tail lose, most of luggage will clear the hold instantly and be spared of fire which should mostly be around fuel tanks in the wings and center of a/c.Wouldnt it make all sense if the cargo door wasnt locked properly? As I assume from the debries it is rather a Bomb induced structual disintegration.

[THR RED ACC]

G-CPTN, it would have definitely been checked.

Guys, what does at least one of the pilots do at the very beginning of every sector? A walk-around! We do not just walk around and see if the LH engine is there and the HS is still nailed on. We check the aircraft over thoroughly and in a low lit environment, we use a torch.

If the pilot walking around would have spotted a defect with the aircraft, then they would have not decided to fly. If, and this is a big if, the crew discussed the defect and decided to fly on to LED, then the conversation would have been picked up by the CVR.

Nevertheless, the debris will be analysed for any foreign fragments (i.e. parts of a bomb) and the debris will also be tested for any microscopic scarring caused by a bomb blast. The investigators will also be verifying who worked at the airport that day and who was able to gain access to the aircraft, including ground staff, pax, crew, an aviation inspector perhaps?

[mitrosft]

oleostrut

Static discharge across the hinge due to broken/missing bonding strap?

Would be an option, but hydraulic fluid leak traces are evidence of bigger problem perhaps...

[mototopo]

If, and this is a big if, the crew discussed the defect and decided to fly on to LED, then the conversation would have been picked up by the CVR.

..unlikely, IF, and this is another big IF, they left the RCDR, CTL P/Btn to AUTO..

If put to ON, it allows CVR to work with engines OFF, otherwise CVR works with first engine ON only..

[A0283]

When you take the available pictures and make a 2D mosaic reconstruction, and only use the sections, components and parts whose identity you sure of, you get a surprisingly completely picture. But some major items are missing.

The main items missing appear to be:

a.The seats ( i have not seen a single one, and only one forgotten passenger-seat-cushion ). Which shows respect for the passengers. On some photos you can see part of the cabin seat-rails.

b.The other are the long fuselage section(s) from behind the wing to the window before the last passenger door.

c.The horizontal stabilizer and the rudder.

d.The APU.

Without these items i would not even start an 'early analysis'(speculating).

So i wonder if anyone has found pictures that can fill in these blanks.

[Lonewolf_50]

ricfly744 (http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/569907-breaking-news-airliner-missing-within-egyptian-fir-18.html#post9165539)
The A321, is a longer A/C and its fuselage may be more sensible to structural damage after a very hard landing. A previous hard landing was not reported and no one made a proper inspection.
If it was not reported, how does anyone know about it?
Not reported to whom?
Not reported by whom?

Kulverstukas (http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/569907-breaking-news-airliner-missing-within-egyptian-fir-20.html#post9165922)
Kolavia reps told on briefing they hold now that plane was checked in tail area for repair of structural damage condition in 2014 as part of D-Check. (Interesting in light of the report that this company is in serious arrears on payroll ... how's QA or QC doing under that environment?)

============

tatelyle (http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/569907-breaking-news-airliner-missing-within-egyptian-fir-19.html#post9165907)
After the Malaysia shoot-down, one wonders why anyone would consider flying over an active conflict zone at any level. Can you really be certain of the weaponry they have in that region? Why not fly up the Gulf to the Delta and the Med, and then plot a course home? Are costs that tight, that you have to take the direct and more risky route?
How is the Sinai a conflict zone?


Most interesting points (as one awaits some info on what was on the FDR) have been raised in re industry wide tail strikes from thecrozier and a few others. It may be some time before that factor is agreed as having been germane, or not, in this case.

[MartinAOA]

AFAIK, recent C check on the EI-ETJ was performed in 2013. The picture showing the potential airframe (rudder) damage was taken in 2015.

[thf]

Bearing in mind that still not even decided which part (MAK, Egypt or Airbus) will read CVR/FDR this "leaks" seems bear zero information.

Seems to be done in Egypt:

A civil aviation source said only that Egyptian investigators aided by Russian and French experts had not yet finished examining the black boxes.

Flight recorders show crashed Russian jet not struck from outside: investigator | Reuters (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/02/us-egypt-crash-idUSKCN0SR1FH20151102)

[Sober Lark]

Thank you AOA. What is the possibility of some 'external force' having the ability to knock out just the tail section whilst the aircraft is in the cruise allowing the rest of fuselage to pancake inverted into the ground? I don't buy it.

[Back at NH]

http://i586.photobucket.com/albums/ss304/NigelC/A321%20seats_zps82o7juwv.png (http://s586.photobucket.com/user/NigelC/media/A321%20seats_zps82o7juwv.png.html)

[oleostrut]

"AFAIK, recent D check on the EI-ETJ was performed in 2014. The picture showing the potential airframe (rudder) damage was taken in 2015."

"Damage" appears in this photo from 2012, well before last D check



https://www.flickr.com/photos/qsyonroute/7803421762/in/photostream/

[Kulverstukas]

Lonewolf, company shows profit last fiscal year (if not a very great one, still...) and I will not look at wages delay or court with RA about cost of ice detectors as any sign of good or bad maintenance. Company is mostly makes money on Turkish and Egyptian tours as part of holding and through touristic business is at decline now, this particular part is not so affected.

Martin, for me it seems more like logo sticker is partly ripped off (because of hydraulic eats some glue may be) than like any rudder damage.

[Ambient Sheep]

Guys, what does at least one of the pilots do at the very beginning of every sector? A walk-around! We do not just walk around and see if the LH engine is there and the HS is still nailed on. We check the aircraft over thoroughly and in a low lit environment, we use a torch.

If the pilot walking around would have spotted a defect with the aircraft, then they would have not decided to fly...

There have been reports that the FO had complained to his daughter (who subsequently told his (ex-?)wife who has gone to the media) about the state of the aircraft that he was (apparently) being made to fly.

[Kulverstukas]

This "defect" is seen at any photo made from both sides of a/c both in old and new livery. For me it still looks like bad job on tail logo sticker.

https://www.planespotters.net/Aviation_Photos/search.php?tag=EI-ETJ

[22/04]

Sorry - non-commercial pilot so all maintenance done by our own organisation. So I am wondering how maintenance is done on leased aircraft. Is the property of the leasing company so does that take responsibility for all heavy maintenance to protect its asset - or is this the responsibility of the airline.

Obviously I presume line maintenance is down to the leasing airline.

Who is responsible for insurance and hence who is concerned that it is a fit condition to be insured?

May be irrelevant but this aircraft does look a little unloved - and finally if salaries were not paid for2 months I am sure the CAA here would be very interested in whether the airline was in a fit state financially to continue operations. How does this work in Russia with their equivalent?

[Kulverstukas]

There have been reports that the FO had complained to his daughter (who subsequently told his (ex-?)wife ...

There were also "reports" that pilots complains to ground service and that they ask for diverting because of engine malfunction etc...

There are also a lot of "reports" from people who flew this same plane recently and "it was almost broke in half in the air".

I mean, too much people now have ability to spread any BS worldwide, thanks to WWW.

[Mudman]

A0283a.The seats ( i have not seen a single one, and only one forgotten passenger-seat-cushion ). Which shows respect for the passengers. On some photos you can see part of the cabin seat-rails.
I saw one pic of seats, will try and find it again. The majority of the seats in the front section are likely crushed as the cabin landed inverted them destroyed by fire.

b.The other are the long fuselage section(s) from behind the wing to the window before the last passenger door. Broken and scattered over a wide area...

Picture source is https://twitter.com/Kosarev_RT/

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CS0CgIkXAAAWK4W.jpg

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CS0NAgaUsAAidbT.jpg

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CS0KVeeUcAAxiVa.jpg


c.The horizontal stabilizer and the rudder.Haven't seen any pics of this yet

d.The APU. APU pic here http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/569907-breaking-news-airliner-missing-within-egyptian-fir-17.html#post9165352

[WHBM]

As there have been postings of recent photos of the aircraft, commenting on the surface marks visible at the base of the rudder, it may be noted that the aircraft seems to have had a repaint and different livery, including the rudder, applied some time in May/June.

May 2015 - old livery. Marks visible.

Photos: Airbus A321-231 Aircraft Pictures | Airliners.net (http://www.airliners.net/photo/Metrojet-(Kolavia)/Airbus-A321-231/2639487/L/&sid=4cb332578b1ec9e4e03b9cb990cbe6ba)


June 2015 -new livery, no marks visible

Photos: Airbus A321-231 Aircraft Pictures | Airliners.net (http://www.airliners.net/photo/Metrojet-(Kolavia)/Airbus-A321-231/2665121/L/&sid=4cb332578b1ec9e4e03b9cb990cbe6ba)

October 2015, 10 days before accident flight, marks there again on the new livery

Photos: Airbus A321-231 Aircraft Pictures | Airliners.net (http://www.airliners.net/photo/Metrojet-(Kolavia)/Airbus-A321-231/2725367/L/&sid=4cb332578b1ec9e4e03b9cb990cbe6ba)

[oleostrut]

"
There are also a lot of "reports" from people who flew this same plane recently and "it was almost broke in half in the air"."

Every group of pilots always has a complainer. Not saying there weren't problems, but if it was not put in writing to superiors, or written up in the logs, it was all prop-wash.

What does the airline's Chief Pilot have to say about Maintenance and Engineering?

[Cows getting bigger]

Where's the rear cargo door?

[andrasz]

Some snippets of news (mainly from RT News and a few other sources) that add some further information:

Search area was expanded today to search for missing bodies (and presumably wreckage too).

Large parts of the rear fuselage were shown on new photos not seen before, a statement was made earlier today that several fuselage parts have been found (edit: Mudman just posted the photos as I was typing). Apart of the still missing (? at least no photos shown) horizontal stabilizer all major parts of the aircraft are accounted for.

An unnamed source in Cairo claims that no trace of explosives have yet been found on any part of the wreckage (for what an unnamed source is worth).

Nothing that changes anything that could have been deducted from the information available a day ago.

[Kulverstukas]

oleostrut, if there will be any even small doubt about maintenance quality and/or financial problems, Rosaviation will not hesitate to ground airline in 24h as it did before number of times.

Re "black boxes preliminary reading" leaks: officially declared that CVR/FDR will not be touched until all investigation teams - Egypt, Russian, French and German will not arrive to Ministry of Civil Aviation of Egypt.

andrasz, only reliable part about explosion version I can guess is that there is no traces of missile damaging elements found on debris. So it's why Rosaviation denies Kolavia statement that "plane was damaged from outside".

[oldoberon]

Someone posted a pic of A321 dated May 2015 in SSH showing possible crack/damage on lower part of rudder ...


http://ura.ru/images/news/upload/news/228/838/1052228838/90e3664bd44858046939602cf6402f9f.jpg


http://ura.ru/images/news/upload/news/228/838/1052228838/90e3664bd44858046939602cf6402f9f.jpg

Not a crack, but picture does show the amount of staining from possibly longterm hydraulic/skydrol leaks

[22/04]

I think the marks are visible on all three photographs above.

Nevertheless this does seem to suggest something beyond a poorly affixed decal is going on.

Crack? Flex in the rudder cracking paint/decal? Weakness?

I know I' ll be shot down for saying this but this accident does not have the feel of terrorist attack/explosive on board but on some kind of structural or control issue.

[PersonFromPorlock]

Re: Heat damage before breakup?

http://www.keri.ee/crash/siinai.jpg

That doesn't look like soot from burning fuel post-breakup, it looks like scorched paint from a fire inside the fuselage. Note how, towards the back, the paint was protected by the fuselage's internal structure.

[EGPI10BR]

@ FE Hoppy

Light debris from the Pan Am 103 were found as far away as Newcastle -- probably some went into the North Sea. This was a function
of the breakup being in a strong Jetstream. The aircraft wreckage and heavier items fell in a relatively small area.

[Pontius Navigator]

For any source in Egypt, named or unnamed, the word missing I credible ad all early reports have proven unfounded.

[PersonFromPorlock]

andrasz, only reliable part about explosion version I can guess is that there is no traces of missile damaging elements found on debris. So it's why Rosaviation denies Kolavia statement that "plane was damaged from outside". A Russian government that was not entirely committed to truth-telling might want to depress speculation by its citizens that Russia's recent moves against ISIS had invited this result, though.

Probably, at this point, everybody is saying what serves them best.

[G-CPTN]

Statement that break-up is not attributable to pilot error or technical fault - would that include any possible structural 'problem'?

No reports of any explosive traces yet.

It will be interesting to know the results of the autopsies.

[mitrosft]

22/04

I think the marks are visible on all three photographs above.

Nevertheless this does seem to suggest something beyond a poorly affixed decal is going on.

Crack? Flex in the rudder cracking paint/decal? Weakness?

I know I' ll be shot down for saying this but this accident does not have the feel of terrorist attack/explosive on board but on some kind of structural or control issue.

missing HS on otherwise not too damaged tail section only adds to your version of structural/control issue ...

[gmorton]

Interesting reading on the Israeli Security Website (Shin Bet) under Terror Data and Trends, regarding 'high trajectory launchings from Gaza and the Sinai'- here's their september report:
https://www.shabak.gov.il/SiteCollectionDocuments/Monthly%20summary%20-%20September%202015en.pdf

Here's some information on the smuggling of arms circa 2010 in the Sinai area, sourced from the Israeli Security Agency here: 2010 Annual Summary ? Data and Trends in Terrorism (http://www.shabak.gov.il/english/enterrordata/reviews/pages/2010summary-en.aspx)

Throughout 2010, much weaponry has been smuggled into the Gaza Strip, to include many hundreds of standard rockets (the majority of these rockets extend to 20km and 40km), about a thousand mortar shells, dozens of AT missiles, tons of standard explosives, and tons of raw material for explosives production.

The smuggling route starting in Iran and passing through Sudan and Sinai continues to be a key element for Palestinian terror organizations. Iran plays a key role in assisting the Palestinian terror organizations and Hizballah to strengthen their military capabilities – it provides high quality weaponry; it funds training for military activists; and it directs terror activity through various Arab countries, especially Syria and Lebanon.

(Fell upon this site by chance- am totally impartial to political leanings...)

[roving]

Since the potential causes appear to have narrowed to a structural failure which caused the tail plane becoming detached or an explosion within the aircraft, which led the tail plane becoming detached, I wonder if I may be permitted to ask this?

Assuming as some have speculated, this tragedy was caused by a bomb placed in the aircraft by ISIS or its sympathisers, why did this terrorist organisation not claim responsibility for placing the bomb rather than making the claim that it had shot it down?

[oleostrut]

"missing HS on otherwise not too damaged tail section only adds to your version of structural/control issue ..."

The port HS is pictured in some available photos still attached to some tail structure. I haven't seen a pic of the starboard HS

[susier]

Listening to BBC Radio four reporting on the statement from the airline that this incident was caused by 'external' sources or actions, I was given the impression that it was intended to mean 'external to the airline', as in, sources beyond their control and not, I'm assuming, related to the maintenance, or a failure, of the airframe itself.


I don't think it necessarily means they think it was caused by an external device, or somesuch meaning, as in a SAM or similar.


I think it meant 'something beyond their control'.


If any Russian speakers wish to comment perhaps on the subtleties of translation?

[Ian W]

Someone posted a pic of A321 dated May 2015 in SSH showing possible crack/damage on lower part of rudder ...


http://ura.ru/images/news/upload/news/228/838/1052228838/90e3664bd44858046939602cf6402f9f.jpg


http://ura.ru/images/news/upload/news/228/838/1052228838/90e3664bd44858046939602cf6402f9f.jpg

I would not be too concerned about the paint job, except that it is an indication of a continual leak (skydrol?) from presumably somewhere in the rudder area internal to the airframe. Where else did that skydrol leak run to inside the airframe and over more than a year; runs of leaking fluid can be surprisingly long. As someone posted earlier this is particularly corrosive liquid I would think pooled inside a box structure in the hot sun it might cause a fair amount of damage. Any flexing in the fuselage could be exacerbated by the HS moving to neutralize that movement stressing it further in the same sense.

[andrasz]

why did this terrorist organisation not claim responsibility for placing the bomb rather than making the claim that it had shot it down?
Precisely... This is why the bomb theory is less likely at present. An internal explosion leaves many and fairly obvious traces (both on wreckage and bodies) so if that were the case, we would probably know by now.


The port HS is pictured in some available photos
No it is not. Beaten to death, that photo was of the 2014 August An-12 crash in Algeria.

[Machinbird]

Just a theory at this point and I'm not seeing all the ground scars I would expect however here goes:

Once an aircraft loses its tail, it initially wants to tumble forward which can tear loose already torn portions of the fuselage near the original failure. That would likely account for strips of fuselage found in the desert in recent pictures, but it would take a prolonged time at high airspeed to shred the entire aft fuselage. This aircraft decelerated rapidly.

This aircraft hit in a flat inverted attitude. This may just be chance, however if the aircraft began an inverted flat spin it would greatly increase the probability of hitting in this attitude. If you look at the fuselage wreckage aerial pictures, the fuselage is bent in a V shape. I suspect that the wing had so much rotational inertia that it tore the wing box loose from the fuselage structure below it at impact and continued rotating and also translating aft due to the Left wing generating more purchase on the ground than the right wing. (remember that the aircraft is inverted when assigning right and left. The V in the fuselage debris was likely caused by the rotational momentum as well. The aircraft would have been rotating (counterclockwise as viewed from above) around its (new) center of gravity.

So the remainder of the missing aft fuselage is probably sitting under the wing which is no longer in its original position relative to the fuselage.

[susier]

Thank you, Kulverstukas :ok:

[Kulverstukas]

Quote:


Originally Posted by roving

why did this terrorist organisation not claim responsibility for placing the bomb rather than making the claim that it had shot it down?

Precisely... This is why the bomb theory is less likely at present. An internal explosion leaves many and fairly obvious traces (both on wreckage and bodies) so if that were the case, we would probably know by now.



Was there any immediate claim in the Lockerbie case?

[22/04]

If the skydrol leak was long term would this need topping up- where would you top it up and where would top up spillage go?

(The engineer on our little aeroplanes has put a notice in the hanger that says "do not oil the battery").

And why wasn't it fixed? I haven't seen this on any Airbus 3xx that I have come across in the UK or India so it isn't a common thing is it?

[andrasz]

Was there any immediate claim in the Lockerbie case?
No there wasn't, I was wondering when someone will ask this. However that was a case of state-sponsored terrorism. The potential culprits in this case have nothing to gain and all to lose by keeping silent.

[Pontius Navigator]

K, Lockerbie State sponsored terrorism with a known vulnerable target had they claimed responsibility.

Modern organized terrorists have a different agenda.

[oldchina]

A second team of three BEA investigators has left today for Egypt to strengthen the team that arrived on Sunday November 1st.

[A first team, consisting of two BEA Safety Investigators, accompanied by six technical advisers from Airbus, will leave for Egypt tomorrow ( i.e.Sunday 1st November). The team will be joined by two Safety Investigators from the German BFU, as well as four Safety Investigators from the MAK.]

[Simplythebeast]

Sky News have decided to change the Airline's comment from "External actions", (which could of course mean caused by someone or something external to the organisation), to "External Impact".
How I hate those idiots.

[DaveReidUK]

Short messages mean data condensed to the minimum. Thus e.g a timestamp in not included as it is meaningless in real time navigation. Anything else than 3d-position, 3d-vector and aircraft id is not repeated in the standard broadcast.

Good summary of ADS-B. But just to clarify "3d-position, 3d-vector and aircraft ID" are all sent in separate broadcasts as they can't all be accommodated in a single 56-bit packet.

That's one of the reasons, of course, why FR24 data has to be treated with caution as it populates data items that aren't in any given packet with stale values from a previous transmission.

[just another jocky]

Just seen this thread quoted on BBC News with a picture of the forum page.

[metro301]

Yes, honesty is a hallmark of ISIS..... :bored:

Maybe they are taking time to edit some videos. Maybe they want people to be confused. Who knows.....

Lacking a claim of responsibility is hardly an indicator they did not do it. What of the other 10 dozen or so like minded outfits in the area?

Until the Russians or a European agency comes out and says there was no explosive residue, it is still the most likely cause.

[4listair]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=viFEgBW0VfU
EMERCOM: ...at about 3 or 4pm local we will transport some items we found by helicopter...
We have increased the area of the search operation and there are new factors that have emerged today...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pB3NSrXRyv0
“Four groups have surveyed eight square kilometres. We plan to explore 20 square kilometres up until 22.00. In addition we will turn over large parts of the plane to see what is underneath."https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QA0fiDFQTbM
Published on 2 Nov 2015
The head of Russia’s Federal Air Transport Agency, Alexander Neradko, discussed the decoding of the crashed 7K9268 plane’s black box during a video address in Cairo, Monday.

SOT, Alexander Neradko, Head of the Russian Federal Air Transport Agency (in Russian): "A second group of Russian investigators are now working at the Ministry of Civil Aviation of Egypt, working with the flight recorders. Today they managed to inspect the flight recorders, the recorder of the flight parameters and voice recorder. The apparent condition of the protective covers of these recorders is satisfactory, which allows us to hope that we will be able to decrypt the recordings of the flight records. But the decryption of the flight recorders will start only when all members of the investigation arrive at Egypt’s Ministry of Civil Aviation. The members involved in the investigation, besides the Egyptian specialists, include representatives from the countries where the plane was designed and manufactured – that is France and Germany, as well as representatives of countries where the aircraft was registered – that is representatives from Ireland. When all those specialists arrive in Cairo, the transcript of the flight recorders will start immediately. The decoding will apparently be held in Cairo."

[Pontius Navigator]

Until the Russians or a European agency comes out and says there was no explosive residue, it is still the most likely cause.

No, possible cause.

[tlbrown350]

I wish I knew exactly what the Kogalymavia official meant by the statement "an External Influence". Very premature into the investigation to come out with such statements. It looks to me like a weak attempt to muddy the waters for legal purposes to absolve themselves from a less than stellar maintenance past.

The physical look and maintenance / history records of EI-ETJ would lead most away from the bomb/shoot down scenario until proved otherwise. RIP to passengers and crew, and sympathies to their loved ones.

[Modesto]

Regarding IS claim:

Not an Arabic speaker myself, but all of the translations I have seen use the word "downed," as opposed to "shot down." There was also some defensiveness today on their part about why everyone is assuming MANPAD. The implication they're putting out, FWIW, is an onboard device. They certainly haven't claimed to have "shot" the aircraft down. Also worth noting here is that, while Egypt's affiliate in the Sinai has had a maybe 75/25 ratio, or at least not-perfectly-accurate profile of responsibility claims, the Central HQ as it were has picked this up whole-heartedly, and they tend to be pretty reliable. They're certainly all-in on this.

[Jo90]

It appears that the event happened as the aircraft approached TOC. Would the cabin altitude still have been increasing at that time?

[RatherBeFlying]

The absence of a recognisable rear fuselage in the wreckage photos opens the possibility of the initial failure somewhere in that component.

What caused the failure remains open.

[AVR4000]

The cabin pressure would be at the highest level (attained during the flight) since the aircraft just reached cruising altitude when the "event" happened.

Edit: Pictures of the rear fuselage (taken from the air) show a complete absence of the horizontal stabilizers. The rudder is detached as well. This is a strong indication about problems in the tail area and pictures showing the aircraft with hydraulic leaks in the same section can be a clue as well.

My take based on available pictures is that the event involved a ruptured rear pressure bulkhead followed by a loss of the rudder and stabilizer separation (or failure of the stabilizers independent of the bulkhead).

[gmorton]

ISIS/Sinai State did not say that they had 'shot the plane down' they said they had 'downed the plane'- leaving room for interpretation......

This French article in the Huffington Post has a whole host of 'experts' stacking up arguments for the bomb theory...
Crash en Egypte: un scénario semblable à l'attentat de Lockerbie en 1988 est évoqué par plusieurs experts (http://www.huffingtonpost.fr/2015/11/02/crash-egypte-sinai-bombe-attentat-lockerbie-etat-islamique-daech_n_8451504.html?utm_hp_ref=france)

[skridlov]

Once again, apologies for my non-professional perspective.
There seems to be an emerging trend (omitting for the moment the foul play options) in the analysis presented by knowledgeable commentators here which would tend to suggest that the locus of failure was somewhere at the rear of the aircraft, adjacent to the pressure bulkhead and stabilisers.

At the same time several photographs have been posted of this aircraft exhibiting very conspicuous hydraulic fluid leakage in the same area, extending - or so it looks to me - to a seam encircling the fuselage. Now back in the day when I operated and maintained heavy earth-moving and mining plant I'd have regarded a hydraulic leak like this as warranting a repair asap - on a bulldozer, much less an aircraft.

Having read most of the posts, including some which have been moderated away, there doesn't appear to be any informed comment suggesting that there may be a correlation between this manifestation and the accident. Which seems pretty surprising to an observer.

[LiamNCL]

IS took far too long to lay claim to this crash IMO to take them serious ? If they had planted a bomb they would of been all over it ASAP

[Airbubba]

A question for someone with airbus technical knowledge

It appears that the event happened as the aircraft approached TOC. Would the cabin altitude still have been increasing at that time?

Since they didn't reach level flight from what I've seen so far, yes, I would expect the cabin altitude would still be climbing at a rate normally less than 500 feet per minute. I'm rated on a couple of the larger Airbuses but not the 320 series.

The cabin pressure would be at the highest level (attained during the flight) since the aircraft just reached cruising altitude when the "event" happened.

Huh? Seems like typical cabin altitude in cruise is around 5,000 to 7000 feet at cruise in most airliners I've flown. That is a lower cabin pressure than at sea level in Sharm, right?

Don't you mean to say that cabin differential is highest at level off?

[gmorton]

@LiamNCL
The French article I posted quotes a French 'expert' who argues:
"The ISIS claim is credible because the Egyptian branch has never lied about it's actions", confirmed the French expert on terrorism, Mathieu Guidère to AFP, author of 'Terror, the new age"(...)
"La revendication de l'EI est crédible parce que sa branche en Egypte n'a jamais menti sur ses actions", a aussi affirmé à l'AFP Mathieu Guidère, expert français du terrorisme et auteur de "Terreur, la nouvelle ère", résumant les commentaires de nombre de ses collègues".

[andrasz]

@ skridlov

Those streaks could equally be the traces of de-icing fluid which would accumulate there after the tail is sprayed. A hydraulic leak is taken seriously, and would not go unnoticed during walk-around or maintenance.

This being said, assuming sloppy maintenance would permit a leak to continue, I do not see any hydraulic failure scenario that would result in the catastrophic structural failure we are seeing.

Assuming worst case scenarios, a full deflection of the rudder would probably result in the entire VS snapping off at those speeds/altitudes, which clearly did not happen (the VS damage we see is due to ground impact). Full elevator deflection can be countered by the stab trim, which is not driven by hydraulics but by a servo/pulley system.

[Gary Brown]

First Question: Is a Mid Air Collision consistent with what (little) we know so far? Somehow seems to be about the only possible scenario not yet discussed.

Second Question: When the airline talks of an "external influence", could one interpretation be "the people - not us! - who repaired the tail-strike messed up"? If so, exactly who effected that major repair ten or so years ago?

[Kulverstukas]

Is a Mid Air Collision consistent with what (little) we know so far? Somehow seems to be about the only possible scenario not yet discussed.

What is big enough to detach part of A321, can climb to 10 km and at the same time doesn't leave any recognizable parts on the ground after such collision?

[LookingForAJob]

Somehow seems to be about the only possible scenario not yet discussed.Oh, have the aliens come up already?

[andrasz]

Is a Mid Air Collision consistent with what (little) we know so far?

In short, no. Probably that's why it's not discussed. (There would be clear signs, not to mention two sets of smoking wreckage)

[skridlov]

Thanks andrasz.
That's a succinct explanation.
Either way, I'm surprised that it was allowed to remain long enough stain the aircraft - there are at least two snaps showing the same symptoms and I assume they weren't shot at the same time. I wouldn't see this oversight (if it is) as evidence of a pride in the operation though.

[LiamNCL]

@gmorton

I think its still a credible claim but we all know ISIS are a propaganda machine , They warned us about Sousse weeks before it happened i just think if it was really them who were responsible it would of been claimed instantly and even warned about in someway previous to it happening , They put out a video claiming that was the plane falling from the sky but why werent they first on site ? They could of been there destroying , taking things and god knows what else way before any emergency services got there

[AVR4000]

I meant the pressure differential in my post.

[Gary Brown]

Quote:
Is a Mid Air Collision consistent with what (little) we know so far? Somehow seems to be about the only possible scenario not yet discussed.


What is big enough to detach part of A321, can climb to 10 km and at the same time doesn't leave any recognizable parts on the ground after such collision?
The first two are obvious (any military jet, just for one). The second is of course a very good point (also made later by another poster).

Just trying to get a handle on the airline saying "external influence" as a cause, and the range of what that might mean.

[Kulverstukas]

http://urgent.metrojet.ru/files/tehdoc_20151102175048.zip

Due to numerous requests of journalists and industry experts we provide technical documentation and documentation of audit Flight 7K-9268. This official documentation, talking about the technical side of serviceability has also been transferred at the request of the Investigative Committee. (с) Metrojet

[Smott999]

I had been a bit confused about reports of bodies found well apart from the main wreckage as "missing limbs"....but I believe that may be a poor translation of "dislocated limbs"....but my Russian language skills are no longer good enough to read original reports and say for sure.

But dislocated limbs are indeed consistent with ejection into high speed air stream as with the mid-air break up that is now fairly certain.

RIP all.

[TURIN]

Once again, apologies for my non-professional perspective.
There seems to be an emerging trend (omitting for the moment the foul play options) in the analysis presented by knowledgeable commentators here which would tend to suggest that the locus of failure was somewhere at the rear of the aircraft, adjacent to the pressure bulkhead and stabilisers.

At the same time several photographs have been posted of this aircraft exhibiting very conspicuous hydraulic fluid leakage in the same area, extending - or so it looks to me - to a seam encircling the fuselage. Now back in the day when I operated and maintained heavy earth-moving and mining plant I'd have regarded a hydraulic leak like this as warranting a repair asap - on a bulldozer, much less an aircraft.

Having read most of the posts, including some which have been moderated away, there doesn't appear to be any informed comment suggesting that there may be a correlation between this manifestation and the accident. Which seems pretty surprising to an observer.

I think the general public would be very surprised if they got up close to any 15 year old jet. Evidence of historical leaks are commonplace. It doesn't necessarily mean the aircraft is unsafe.

[shaun ryder]

Stabiliser trim, servo and pulley system? Am I missing something?

[Obba]

CNN have a picture of the tail section. Not sure how long it'll stay up.


Breaking News, U.S., World, Weather, Entertainment & Video News - CNN.com (http://edition.cnn.com/)


I don't have time to grab it and post it.


If someone can get there and grab the pic then post it...?

[Gary Brown]

Quote:
Is a Mid Air Collision consistent with what (little) we know so far?


In short, no. Probably that's why it's not discussed. (There would be clear signs, not to mention two sets of smoking wreckage) Thanks: but it also seems to be the case that, so far, a large chunk of the far rear of the aircraft is also missing from the "wreckage tally".

And - just to be clear, about other posts - I'm not speculating about anything (especially not "US drones".....). Just asking a question that I had not so far seen posed, in the light of what has so far been seen, and said..

[Slow and curious]

What is known about the passengers onboard? Someone travelling incognito?
Possible targets? Russian mafia? Weirder theories have emerged.

[Almostfamous]

I came across this photo, might fill in the missing "extreme end" question posed.



http://cdn1.img.sputniknews.com/images/102947/80/1029478002.jpg

[Smott999]

That pic of the tail is the same one we've seen many times I believe. VS and empennage.

HS still AWOL....

[nehoria]

CNN have a picture of the tail section. Not sure how long it'll stay up.


Breaking News, U.S., World, Weather, Entertainment & Video News - CNN.com


I don't have time to grab it and post it.


If someone can get there and grab the pic then post it...?

(Clickable)
http://i.imgur.com/BsX3Y6Bl.jpg (http://i.imgur.com/BsX3Y6B.jpg)
http://i.imgur.com/6See3Zdl.jpg (http://i.imgur.com/6See3Zd.jpg)

[Kulverstukas]

Russian mafia?

Ukrainian yakuza... :ugh:

[Airbubba]

Due to numerous requests of journalists and industry experts we provide technical documentation and documentation of audit Flight 7K-9268. This official documentation, talking about the technical side of serviceability has also been transferred at the request of the Investigative Committee. (с) Metrojet

Looks like log book page A 269918 is missing in the sequence of the last five logbook pages released. Otherwise, the logbook looks clean to me.

[TURIN]

Stabiliser trim, servo and pulley system? Am I missing something?
Yes, I wondered about that myself.

For what it's worth, to the original poster at 482, The stab trim is hydraulically operated normally. Electrical backup IIRC.

[StuntPilot]

@Kulverstukas (http://www.pprune.org/members/119846-kulverstukas)

From the docs you post ( http://urgent.metrojet.ru/files/tehdoc_20151102175048.zip ) it seems that in 3-2014 a C-check was performed, not the much more thorough D-check, as was stated here before.

[CONSO]

the VS damage we see is due to ground impactNot quite- look at the top section of the VS forward of the rear door. The circumferential "ring" used to join that aft body section to the forward section has clearly failed in tension along a row or two of rivets/bolts used for the join almost half way around. True the bottom part has been bent by ground impact- so it is difficult from just the photo to determine if the lower section ' crumpled ' via compression while the upper part failed in tension.

For a crude comparison - take a pop can- hold it horizontal- push up with your thumbs from the bottom in the center, pulling down on both ends. The lower part fails in compression. Of course the upper part is in tension ( if you scribed it around the top half- it might actually tear the upper half )

Now compare to the aft section photos with part of the vertical stab ..

It takes a lot of force to tear the aft section at the production join - for example a major dive and pull up - or a failure of control surfaces at high speed allowing rudder/elevator to ' flop "

[igs942]

Isn't the rudder also AWOL?

[Back at NH]

Smott999

No it's not. That's the tail cone. APU is behind the rear .....

[oleostrut]

"I came across this photo, might fill in the missing "extreme end" question posed. "

That appears to be the area just fore of the APU and tailcone. Isn't that a fire bottle attached in the middle?

[thcrozier]

I don't know what you call the grey area where the HS attaches, but the picture of it in the desert has little or no staining of the paint around it, while in the picture taken earlier this year shows the same area to be heavily stained.