Ash clouds threaten air traffic

[Re-Heat]

There are at present at least six active volcanoes all around the world that are represented on SIGWX charts.
The only one that unleashed such a response in so many countries is our Icelandic one.
I operated in the vicinity of many active volcanoes in my career, the average no fly zone have always been at maximum a couple of hundred miles from the erupting crater.
And what exactly are those volcanoes? You do understand the huge difference between lava-emitting Italian volcanoes and gas and ash-emitting types such as this one do you? This was on the secondary school Geography syllabus when I was 13 - there are at least 10 different types listed on Wikipedia! Volcano - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcano#Volcanic_features)

[Wizzaird]

Latest VAAC chart for 19/0600 looks much more promising than the previous one. Some parts of central and most of eastern europe seem to be clear. Looks like a high pressure system from the Balkans area pusing the cloud north. Lets hope we get some traffic moving tomorrow, even if it is only central and easter parts to start with.

[PENKO]

My car operates with a huge margin under its performance limitations; aircraft engines tend to operate at higher RPMs and closer to engineering tolerances. I have the luxury of drifting to the side of a road in a car, which my aircraft do not.

Come on Re-heat, I'm sure you were much more worried about the cost of all this vulcanic ash lying on your car. I would have been. It could have ruined your filters, glaced your pistons and what not. You know how much that would have cost you? I'm sure you went walking!

I bet it's pollen as someone politely suggested.

[Anotherpost75]

From Dr. Richard North, Daily Mail, Sunday 18 April 2010

Few could have guessed the impact of eruptions from a volcano 1,000 miles away under the Eyjafjallajoekull glacier in Iceland.

Last Wednesday, we found out. At mid-morning, the high-level cloud of volcanic ash had spread across the Atlantic and was approaching Scotland. Flight operations in Aberdeen, Edinburgh and Glasgow were suspended.

By midday the whole of British airspace was closed down. It has remained so ever since.

At first it was all rather thrilling. Suddenly, city-dwellers looked up to clear quiet skies, without a vapour trail or a glint of sun hitting metal in sight.
But now hours have turned into days and, though few are willing to admit it, days could just as easily turn into weeks… or perhaps longer.

Thousands of flights have been cancelled, hundreds of thousands of passengers stranded and frustrated. The cost to airlines climbs through the millions of pounds with each passing moment.

Tune into the latest updates on-line or on television and there is an inescapable doomsday feel to it all, with graphics of a shadowy mass spreading across the outline of our island.

It is something we have, for the most part, simply accepted. After all, this isn’t some work and conditions dispute that can be argued out is it? We just have to sit it out don’t we?

Anyone in any doubt of the wisdom or necessity of this nationwide grounding is promptly reminded of what happened to BA Flight 009.

That was the jumbo jet en route from Kuala Lumpur to Perth on June 24, 1982, flying at 37,000ft when it suddenly experienced the nightmare scenario of all four engines failing.

Pilot Captain Eric Moody glided the jet down more than 20,000ft before he successfully managed to restart one engine at 13,000ft followed by others, before landing safely.

The aircraft had flown into a cloud of volcanic ash from the eruption of Mt Galunggung in Indonesia. There are other incidents too that can be cited.
On December 15, 1989, a KLM jumbo lost all four engines when it flew into a cloud that turned out to be volcanic ash while descending to Anchorage, Alaska. The engines resumed working and the aircraft landed safely, but badly damaged.

In 1991, Mt Pinatubo in the Philippines erupted, and more than 20 ‘volcanic ash encounters’ occurred from what was then the largest volcanic eruption of the past 50 years.

The ability to predict where ash was to be found was challenging because of the enormous extent of the ash cloud. Commercial flights and various military operations were affected. One US operator grounded its aircraft in Manila for several days.

Six years later, when Mt Popocatepetl in Mexico blew, there were several incidents. Although damage was minor in most cases, one flight crew experienced significantly reduced visibility for landing and had to look through the flight deck side windows to taxi after landing.

In addition, the airport in Mexico City was closed for up to 24 hours on several occasions during subsequent intermittent eruptions.

Each of these incidents was distinct and separate. And the action taken in response was distinct and separate. But that is where a gap begins to emerge between this history marshalled as reason for the current blanket grounding and the situation in which we find ourselves today.

It was these incidents that had the international aviation community look at procedures and guidelines in the event of volcanic eruption. One very sensible outcome was to increase observations and reporting.

The Galunggung incident had happened simply because no one had warned Captain Moody of the erupting volcano. Had he known about it, he could easily have changed course and avoided it.

Over the past few days we have been led to believe that grounding all planes is inevitable. That there is absolutely no alternative. But that just isn’t true.

What we are witnessing here is not a natural law, enshrined since time immemorial but a policy drawn up by the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) and then interpreted and enforced by the UK’s National Air Traffic Service (NATS). And that interpretation requires some scrutiny.
In September 2009 the ICAO published their ‘Contingency plan for handling traffic in the event of volcanic ash penetrating the airspace of North Atlantic Region’.

In many respects the guidelines are highly detailed though they make no distinction at all between major or relatively modest eruptions.

Nor do they take into account the dilution effect as the cloud spreads from the original point. The only reference is to generic dust clouds, without any attempt to carry out a risk assessment.

Using as its model the largest and most dangerous of Icelandic volcanoes, the Katla volcano, it offered a series of procedures for monitoring and tracking volcano ash clouds and ‘advice’ to be given to airlines in the event of a volcano eruption.

This current eruption is a relatively modest affair – certainly not at all in the league of Katla.

Yet it is worth noting that for even the most serious of foreseen eruptions the plan issued by the IOCA involved re-routing aircraft round, or under, dust plumes.

We have been scared into believing that to fly would be madness, but part of the rationale that is keeping us grounded is an economic equation rather than simple personal safety.

To fly beneath the cloud until clear of it would mean burning more fuel. But not flying at all is surely burning money more swiftly.

Low-flying to simply avoid the danger of ash being sucked into the jet engines is a temporary solution gaining currency on professional pilot’s forum Pprune. One pilot writing there yesterday pointed out: ‘The chances of it even appearing at puddle jumper altitudes is negligible’.

It isn’t just daredevil pilots who are beginning to question the necessity of the current stalemate. Steve Wood, Chief Pilot at Sussex and Surrey Air Ambulance, yesterday described the measures being taken as ‘a complete overreaction’.

Modern jet aircraft engines are amazingly robust. And indeed they must be so. They have to face not only the hazards of bird strikes, but rain, hail and even salt spray on take-off from coastal airports.

All of which can potentially wreak havoc on engines. Furthermore, sand is a common hazard from dust storms and from desert airfields.

Some aircraft are better equipped than others to deal with high-dust conditions, and consultation with aircraft and engine manufacturers might have enabled more precise restrictions to be imposed, rather than a blanket ban.

But a spokesman for NATS admitted: ‘We don’t really deal with particular manufacturers.’ They were more concerned with ‘applying the international regulations’ rather than working on a specific plane-by-plane, make-by-make basis.

The blanket ban under clear blue skies and glorious sunshine is making some wonder whether this ‘one-size-fits-all’ regulation is appropriate to a situation that the regulations did not foresee.

And there will be many among the 200,000 Britons currently stranded abroad, who would be quite happy to take the risk.

In the final analysis, despite the scares, no one has actually been killed in a volcano incident – something which cannot be said for the much more hazardous drive to the airport.


Richard North is co-author of Scared To Death – From BSE To Global Warming: Why Scares Are Costing Us The Earth.

As the cloud thickens, some pilots are asking... Why can't we just fly beneath it? | Mail Online (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1266998/As-cloud-thickens-pilots-asking--Why-just-fly-beneath-it.html)

[22 Degree Halo]

It's just erupted again after a fairly quiet spell:

Eyjafjallajökull frá Valahnúk (http://eldgos.mila.is/eyjafjallajokull-fra-valahnjuk/)

[PENKO]

And it will continue to do so. So if we still want to have some aviation left next week, or even a functioning economy, we better wisen up.

[1985]

Just had a briefing at work this morning on some of the reasons for why the cloud is staying where it is and why the airspace restrictions are in place.

1. The high pressure system thats sitting on the UK is stopping the ash dispursing properly and at some points causing the ash to circle and come back again.

2. There is an inversion at 8000ft which is stopping the ash from falling which is why there is not much on the ground.

3. The ash particles are so small that you cannot actually see them (you apparantley need a very powerful microscope).

4. Noone knows that size of particle that affects jet engines, from the aviaition authorities, the countries that have dealt with this kind of problem in the past to the engine manufacturers.

5. Because the engine manufacturers don't test for this problem they won't commit to a size/concentration that is safe.

6. NATS put the restrictions in place for controlled airspace because neither the DofT or CAA would make a descision. Once they had the other ANSP's followed their lead. (I think they would have rather the government had taken the lead but theres an election on and all :ugh:)

7. They had already done some work on what to do if a volcano had erupted in Iceland but this situation has far far exceeded the worst case predictions. I think that they expected a couple of days before it blew away, not the potential week - 10 day scenario that is shaping up.

8. They won't allow overflights FL350+ because of the potential for an emergency, which is then compounded by the ash.

9. The reason that you can't just route around it (like the yanks and aussies do) is that we don't have enough airspace to do that. (i think people forget that the UK is smaller than most US states)
Thats pretty much all i can remember.

[Helol]

Woke up this morning to find my car covered in a fine layer, together with these 'splashes' all over it. It has the texture of very fine sand.

Located in South Oxon, approx. 15 miles east of Oxford.

(I had washed my car just the other day)
http://i210.photobucket.com/albums/bb247/Helenol/IMG_5304Web.jpg

[Con-Trail]

It's all good and well arguing about how damaging this is to the engines but personally I'm not convinced.

Could it be that NATS closed the airspace because of fear of any claims against them if they did keep it open in case an incident did occur?

The fact is, I'm at home losing money. No flying- no nothing. What about all my colleagues who are stuck somewhere and can't go back.

It's a frustrating thought that this was all because of a legality...
Am I being selfish?:confused:


Any comments guys?

[VAACman]

Dear all,

A few comments from a non-pilot but VAAC insider... (not in London....):

1) The threat is real in general - there have been many documented encounters with volcanic ash clouds and while the focus tends to go on the BA, Singapore Airlines and KLM incidents there have been many others. Eg: after Miyakejima in 2000 there were 2 aircraft needing all engines replaced. Longest time between eruption and (minor - pitot tube and abrasion) damage appears to be 20 days for a cross-Pacific cloud drifiting from Ecuador to north of New Guinea. Obviously though the greatest risk is going to be where the cloud is densest.

2) While VAAC operations tend to be conservative (and have been strongly encouraged to be by IATA and IFALPA) they are not ridiculously so. The analysis of an area of ash cloud tends to rely heavily on satellite imagery analysis - while a particular algorithm that identifies silicates is used most of all, other tools such as Sulphur Dioxide detection, straight infrared imagery, satellite or ground based lidars etc are also used. If the cloud is not observed for some time then the VAAC will tend to want to cease the event pretty quickly. The comments on the London VAAC blog
Met Office: Icelandic volcano blog (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/europe/volcano/volcano_blog.html)
give an idea of what the analysts are thinking.

3) Dispersion modelling is approximate - it depends on the source term, the dispersion model physics, and the met model used - but past verifications show the models to usually be pretty good.

4) Pilot reports are always useful. Don't assume the satellites see everything, particularly on a cloudy day with a high overcast. Observations of volcanic ash and volcanic encounters *must* be reported. Personal follow up after flight if you've seen something interesting is always appreciated too - meteorologists are human and that personal contact is a golden way to give feedback (even including photos). Also, not all volcanoes are monitored on the ground - particularly in the developing world, and pilot reports might be the only information available.

5) The safe concentration of ash issue has been ongoing for a while and it's not simple. Most of all it's the users (airline industry) that needs to set a warning standard that the VAACs aim to achieve - at the moment it's avoid all ash, which in practice means avoid all 'visible' (reasonable evidence that it's there) ash.

6) The World Meteorological Organisation and International Civil Aviation Organisation have just had meetings on the volcanic ash issue. The reports are just being finalised. If you want to look at the results of the previous science meeting on the issue, go to http://www.caem.wmo.int/moodle/course/view.php?id=27 and particularly the meeting summary at http://www.caem.wmo.int/moodle/file.php?file=/1/VWS/5_WMOSummary_1_.pdf Things have moved since then but you get the gist of it.

Hope this is helpful and please remember that we're all in this mess together...!

[411A]

I don't remember at the time the closure of the whole Mediterranean Sea airspace, nor airplane falling off the sky in swarms.
I would call today's reaction paranoia.

Nope, only notams to the effect advising to avoid the area,, same as the USA for StHelens and ANC areas.

Paranoia is the operative word for the likes of many whom have difficulty with straight thinking.
Sadly.

[Martin2116]

I fail to understand the connection between NATS and safety, in the context of the suspended ash particles. The decision to close UK airspace should have been taken in deep consultation with other safety related bodies (CAA, BA, BAA, AAIB). Was that done?

There are precedents which are wasteful and potentially economically devastating if one body is allowed to make a decision of this sort. To give a non-aviation example, the final morbidity and mortality statistics of swine flu are no worse than any other seasonal flu outbreak. But a huge overreaction occurred. A similar argument applies to the millenium bug. Basically there wasnt one, but consultants earned a lot of money.

The effect of suspended ash particles on aircraft depends on the concentration of those particles and the number of hours the aircraft flies thorugh them. This should have been carefully calculated, based on the best availaible evidence. Where are the calculations to justify this? If this is not done quantitatively, it is highly irresponsible (masquarading under the cloak of safety first) to take such draconian actions.

The situation of aircraft flying directly through a volcanic dust cloud (as happened in 1982, Indonesia) is not directly relevent. I would like to see projected ash concentartion levels for this event - enough to sand blast the windscreen - compared to levels currently at very high altitudes.

Where are the calculations to estimate the quantity of glass particles which could enter the combustion chambers, and clog the cooling systems? if the average particle size is 10 microns, what quantity in grams could enter the engine? What quantity could melt and accumulate?

If there are similar potential threats to safety in a non-aviation industry, are they acted upon? Why not ban all Toyota drivers from UK roads, if the source of the problem of faulty braking has not been identified: The number of potential deaths from this could easily outweigh one plane crash.

If any organisation imposes such a disruption of travel, and potential economic catastrophe, it is their responsibility to collect ALL the evidence together properly, consulting widely whilst the ban is in effect, so further data on ash levels & altitude can result in some limited and safe a/c operation. I do not believe this is currently being done, despite the profound economic consequences.

At the very least a full report on the closure of UK airspace must be made avaliable to all parties after the event, when the problem has (excuse the pun) blown over. This MUST contain detailed meterological data, extensive comment and analysis from the engine and a/c manufactures, plus contingency reccommendations to protect the economy if a similar situation arises in the future.

Martin

[zerotohero]

I think it is a better safe than sorry approch, maybe all would be fine and the only issue is a degraded engine life, but they do cost a lot of money to replace.

on the other hand if just 1 plane falls out of the sky due this, that would be a disaster knowing we had the information to hand to stop this

my view is stay grounded until were 100% sure, this is why we have checks on top of checks and backup systems and all the safty nets we can to avoid the swiss cheese.

Maybe I should re-train as a bus driver! same job just sat 4 feet off the ground rather than 38,000.

[daikilo]

Well done agile Icelandair! As always you see opportunities!

SAS, what if you flew very low out of CPH/OSL/ARN and refueled on the coast before departures to the US or even Korea/Japan etc? These are unique times (hopefully).

[fireflybob]

6. NATS put the restrictions in place for controlled airspace because neither the DofT or CAA would make a descision. Once they had the other ANSP's followed their lead. (I think they would have rather the government had taken the lead but theres an election on and all )

Election time - political intervention if ever I saw anything!

[430tststs]

The dutch association of pilots want to open the airspace.
They say the density of the dust is so small that there is no problem at all.

They say just regulate altitudes and procedures to adapt on the situation.
Change routes and prefer flights by daylight through the risk area.

Are they pushed by commercial reasons? or think safety first?



Als het aan de Vereniging van Nederlandse Verkeersvliegers, de VNV, ligt, gaat het luchtruim weer open. De KLM heeft testvluchten uitgevoerd en die zijn goed verlopen.
PILOTEN: LUCHTRUIM MOET WEER OPEN
http://data.rtl.nl/_internal/anyfile_cache!0/ow8yubxgpvpclx2rnd8jw83k66ozwci.gifFoto

http://data.rtl.nl/_internal/gridimage_v3!0/j83xho6qkvgtjj6b3l3peq4or2w9yot.jpeg


Geen gevaar

Volgens de piloten leveren de asdeeltjes in de atmosfeer geen gevaar op voor het luchtverkeer. Ze zeggen dat de hoeveelheid vulkaanas maar gering is. Toch is besloten ook vandaag nog geen vliegtuigen (http://www.rtl.nl/(/actueel/rtlnieuws/binnenland/)/components/actueel/rtlnieuws/2010/04_april/18/binnenland/luchtruim-nederland-langer-dicht.xml) de lucht in te sturen.
Procedures

De VNV pleit voor procedures waaronder veilig gevlogen kan worden. De vliegers denken onder meer aan aangepaste vlieghoogtes en routes en alleen vliegen met daglicht.

[UPP]

"For example, in the UK, around 3,000 people die in road accidents caused by motor cars each day"

Er, no. That's every YEAR, not every day. I think if over a million people a year were killed on the roads we'd be doing something about it.

[Serenity]

Helol,

Same here, 20 min south of LGW, having washed my car during the week and not used it much, yesterday there was a very visable covering of dark grey/black, slightly abraisive powder!!

[Heathrow Harry]

as far as I can see almost all the definition of the closed area is being done using computer models - hardly any real data is actually being collected

When its clear blue sky it's a bit hard to see what real problems that would be caused by allowing flights in certain directions at specific altitudes and then maybe clearing to higher altitudes when west of Ireland and south of France

I have a feeling if there wasn't an election campaign in the UK someone would have acted already to restrict the panic..............

[22 Degree Halo]

Biggin Hill reporting Volcanic Ash: Wind Map - Britain Observations (http://www.xcweather.co.uk/)

[Milt]

Most jet engines will fail quickly if exposed to that Iceland dust.
Why?
Because the engines' first stage turbine blades run in gas temperatures above their melting point. They don't melt normally because cooling air is blown through a multitude of small holes in the blades. If the unfiltered cooling air contains the Iceland dust this will rapidly clog up the cooling holes.

Result is melted turbine blades which break away to destroy the turbine causing the hapless pilot of the instant glider to pray while he transmit a May Day.

Piston engines will probably be OK for a while until their air filters choke off the induction air flow. Same with your cars.

[WHBM]

I am amazed that PPRuNe has so many expert avio-vulcanologists on board, so permit me to ask you a few questions. I'm sorry it goes on a bit, but being stranded here in New York I've little else to do.


1. How far was Eric Moody from the Indonesian volcano when the total engine failure happened ? How far are London Heathrow southbound departures from the current volcano ?

2. On a related point, what was the atmospheric ppm concentration of ash in the Indonesian incident ? What is the current ppm concentration over London ?

3. Am I not correct that both the Indonesian incident and the KLM one in Alaska were both effectively visual with the volcano (although at night/in cloud) ?

4. At the time of the Indonesian, or the Alaskan incidents, why was all airspace from Japan to Australia, or between Japan and Seattle, not closed down ? How did Indonesian/Alaskan aviation manage to keep all their internal operations going, just rerouting appropriately, and why did they not experience engine or instrument failures ?

5. We have had many volcanoes before, what is different about this one ?

6. Why is it that when I went to Hawaii some years ago I could have actually taken a sightseeing flight around a volcano there; I recall there was just a Notam about turbulence and a possible rock through the windshield if you got too close.

7. Why is Russian aviation, as much downwind from the volcano as anywhere in Western Europe, continuing unaffected ? Why are they getting no engine issues ? (and before some clever clogs comes along and writes about rugged engines from Soviet times, the Tupolev etc fleets have pretty much disappeared now, the bulk of Russian commercial flying is by Airbus and Boeing).

And finally ......

I flew to London intending to return today but now some jobsworth has decided that they didnt have the power to change airspace after all so now no VFR movements in or out of the whole CI zone, while GA and commercial flights continue within the zone. This is just complete madness with regulations and ar** covering taking precedence over any real analysis of safety issues.Should the Jobsworth who decided this, and has clearly no comprehension of handling a crisis, not be fired forthwith for gross incompetence and inability to serve their public, with no redundancy pay and no final salary pension ?

[Chimbu chuckles]

Computer models again?

GIGO - anyone know what the average correlation between computer models and the real world? My experience is that it is very low indeed.

AGW is purely based on models. So is economic theory and look where that got us these last few years.


KLM, acting on a European Union request, flew a Boeing 737-800 without passengers at the regular altitude of 10 km (6 miles) and up to the 13 km maximum on Saturday. Germany's Lufthansa said it flew 10 empty planes to Frankfurt from Munich at altitudes of up to 8 km.

"We have not found anything unusual and no irregularities, which indicates the atmosphere is clean and safe to fly," said a spokeswoman for KLM, which is part of Air France-KLM.

German airline Air Berlin said it had also carried out test flights and expressed irritation at the shutdown of European air space.

"We are amazed that the results of the test flights done by Lufthansa and Air Berlin have not had any bearing on the decision-making of the air safety authorities," Chief Executive Joachim Hunold said.

"The closure of the air space happened purely because of the data of a computer simulation at the Vulcanic Ash Advisory Center in London," he told the mass circulation Bild am Sonntag paper.

[PENKO]

Well Milt, we know that. Please tell us exactly how close to Iceland we can fly before our engines fail. Is Australia far enough?

WHBM, nice post, you just summarised the whole of this thread in a nice and clear way. Anyone who mentions Moody again should immediately answer your question number two before proceeding.

[Klauss]

Hi,
i read the summary of the WMO meeting 2007.
In its final paragraph, it says that clear limit - data on acceptable
ash concentrations in the athmosphere are required from manufacturers
and authorities, as ash-clouds will become indetectable after a while....
but some ash residue will still be around.

So, does anyone know of limitations published since then ?

Best, Klaus

[daikilo]

I hope the Dutch pilots association did not really say this. One empty 737 which did a flight and survived is not proof.

Our met offices probably have a good idea where the ash is and AMS is not far from the node. The issue is whether the ash density and makeup could affect safe flight at certain altitudes and, if so, which? Without this knowledge I would question how anyone can claim safe dispatch.

[Wizzaird]

Expat Chris

If you read this thread from the beginning you will answer your own question.. i.e knowbody knows when this will end. Check out the maps for yourself Met Office: Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (http://metoffice.com/aviation/vaac/vaacuk_vag.html)
theys are updated about every 6 hrs. You do not have to be a rocket scientist to interpret them.

[BDiONU]

I fail to understand the connection between NATS and safety, in the context of the suspended ash particles. The decision to close UK airspace should have been taken in deep consultation with other safety related bodies (CAA, BA, BAA, AAIB). Was that done?
Sigh, as expained previously in this (and other) threads, NATS is an Air Navigation Service Provider, note the words Service Provider. They don't 'own' the UK's controlled airspace they operate it in accordance with the licence and conditions imposed by HM Government PLC. Therefore the decision to stop aircraft entering UK controlled airspace was that of HM Government, NATS happen to be the mouthpiece/talking heads.
You should note that other European governments have actually banned all flying, the UK hasn't chosen to go down that route and if they did it wouldn't be NATS who would make the announcement.

BD
(A NATS employee)

[TRC]

First of all Penko, and now someone else has said that it's pollen.

Thank goodness, I was quite worried for a while that it was something serious.

[brooksjg]

If it is indeed the case that UK is NOT flying data-collection flights round the clock in areas where ash-particle concentrations are considered 'marginal', then the first question is: Why not??!!

It's already been suggested that there are a number of scrapper Nimrods not doing anything although presumably (to some extent?) serviceable. Use them and then UK Goverment might do something useful AND get back some of the collossal previous investment in these piles of superannuated junk. We might even strike lucky and find that the MR variants still have air-sampling kit fitted from COld War days....

Even if other types had to be used, at the current rate of financial loss by UK Ltd and especially air transport, scrapping ONE AIRCRAFT EACH AND EVERY DAY after 'unsuccessful' data collection would be well worthwhile.

So far, based on reports here, the Dutch have flown THROUGH rather then 'IN' the dust for short periods, and other European carriers have done some point/point flights which either avoided the dust via height selected or chosen route. Who's ACTUALLY, RIGHT NOW flying at heights / routes where 'acceptable' particle densities are believed to be, with continuous sampling of the dust? Apparently no-one. How silly is that?

[atageorge]

:ugh:
so one lab in UK (are there any volcanoes there) runs a simulation and a few experts in eurocontrol decide it is true, with no facts on their hands...
and even if a plane flying close to the volcano is affected, does that mean that planes flying thousands of km away, within the "simulated" cloud as per the British vulkanians, are affected the same way- apparently NOT - and does dilution play a part - apparently yes-

good show old BOY ain't it - look mum, no hands.., :rolleyes:

who is spreading fud over your job???

[matblack]

Driving back on the M6 Toll yesterday having managed to get back from Ankara (albeit 48 sleepless hours later than planned) we had a strange experience. We were weren't following any traffic when we heard faint crackling. Then we noticed shiny clear speckles on the windscreen and side windows. It was like wafer thin shards of clear glass. When we stopped they were stuck to the screen. we only had it on this stretch for around 5 miles. The sky was clear and weather was fine and sunny. It wasn't dramatic but certainly noticeable. It may of course be coincidence. Didn't encounter any more of it all the way up to Manchester.

[circuitbreaker13]

On the BA incident back in the 80's the engines did restart so I do not believe turbineblades had broken off or melted even in the worst scenario you could imagine.

So I remain that the only possible risk is higher maintenance cost due reduced engine life!!!

[atageorge]

did you get any glass showers anywhere outside the UK?:{

[Wizzaird]

what is fud? :confused:

[atageorge]

will over twenty and more to come convince you?

[TRC]

On the BA incident back in the 80's the engines did restart so I do not believe turbineblades had broken off or melted even in the worst scenario you could imagine.



Just hope that you've got 28,000+ feet below you to get them going again.

[Andratx]

FUD = Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt. It's what IBM used to spread about other computer manufacturers' offerings, back in the day.

[bankrupttick]

:ok:circuitbreaker13:

On the BA incident back in the 80's the engines did restart so I do not believe turbineblades had broken off or melted even in the worst scenario you could imagine.

So I remain that the only possible risk is higher maintenance cost due reduced engine life!!!


Let me get this straight: failures on all four engines and a 25,000+ feet drop isn't worrying to you? I mean, sure, that's ok if you're at FL410, but maybe not at, say, FL240?! :ugh:

Judging some of the comments that SOME pilots have made today, I am increasingly satisfied with the need for ATC to provide some adult supervision in the world of aviation...

[Karijini49]

What's need in this rather desperate situation is **real** data measured in a scientific manner by **real** sensors.

And this is exactly what Metair (www.metair.ch (http://www.metair.ch)) and its partners have been doing since yesterday by flying a small, but very well instrumented research aircraft through the ash cloud measuring the sizes, composition and density of the ash cloud and the particles therein.

Yesterday, the aircraft flew for more than 3 hours and up to FL170 over Switzerland and came back with data nobody else in all of Europe has sampled so far (to our best knowledge). The data is currently being analysed by scientists and the Swiss autorities.

Today, the aircraft just came back from another mission, this time up to FL180, with another batch of extremely valuable data. The data is **already** with the Swiss autorities and there will probably be another flight later today.

The instruments on the aircraft are amongst the best science has to offer.

The aircraft is a Diamond Aircraft ECO-Dimona, a purpose-built special mission research aircraft carrying pods under the wings for scientific sensors (see Metair's website). MetAir is part of a world-wide network of a group of dedicated scientists and pilots who use this type of aircraft for all sorts of airborne research. The team has a reputation to deliver extremely valuable work and at a time, when it's most needed, without bureaucrazy and red tape. In just 4 weeks, this is the **second** time, that we were able to do this, after delivering the **only** reliable flood forecast from airborne lidar measurements just 4 weeks ago during the "floods of the century" in Queensland, Australia (through ARA- www.airborneresearch.org.au (http://www.airborneresearch.org.au), the Australian partner).

Actions are needed based on solid science, not endless talk and politics.

[scr1]

the latest from nats

Statement on Icelandic volcanic eruption: Sunday April 18, 1500

Conditions around the movement of the layers of the volcanic ash cloud over the UK remain dynamic. NATS is maintaining close dialogue with the Met Office and with the UK’s safety regulator, the CAA, in respect of the international civil aviation policy we follow in applying restrictions to use of airspace. We are currently awaiting CAA guidance.
We are working closely with Government, airports and airlines, and airframe and aero engine manufacturers to get a better understanding of the effects of the ash cloud and to seek solutions.

Based on the latest information from the Met Office, NATS advises that the restrictions currently in place across UK controlled airspace will remain in place until at least 0700 (local time) tomorrow, Monday 19 April.

We will of course continue to make best use of any breaks in the ash cloud to offer opportunities to airlines as they arise. There may be limited opportunity in Orkney and Shetland from 1900 (local time) today for some flights to operate under individual coordination with ATC. However, it is most unlikely that many flights will operate today and anyone hoping to travel should contact their airline before travelling to the airport.
We will continue to monitor Met Office information and review our arrangements in line with that. We will advise further arrangements at approximately 2100 (local time), today.

[grebllaw123d]

daikilo,

Icelandair is able to fly to Trondheim on the Norwegian west coast today due to the fact that the airspace in NW Norway has been opened - at least for now (acc. Norwegian newspaper VG.NO).
The Icelandic airspace is not closed apart from the area directly affected by the eruption. That's why Icelandair has been able to continue flying to their US destinations.

SAS' main international hub is Copenhagen - but flying to/from Denmark is not possible, as airspace closed from ground and up - even for VFR traffic.

[CaptSeeAreEmm]

BA 009 in 1982 flew directly into the ash-cloud over Mt Galunggung, as in directly over the volcano. It was a completely different scenario.

So please STOP using BA 009 as a reference to what might happen here over central Europe hundreds of miles away from the the volcano.:ugh:

[Alice025]

I am not an aviator. In our Rus. media the volcanic ash is not described as "ash", for general public like me. But as "liquid glass", Eyjafjallajoekull peculiarity now is producing "liquid glass". Which then flies as "tiny glass particles, 2mm big in size only" and "if not coloured by additives - you wouldn't see them, by un-aided eye".
The BA 1982 example, of 4 engines failure (and then working again) (post 1016 here) in Russian media was described by the pilots seeing nothing in the air at all but good day and clear skies. And only on the ground it was noticed the front window is like peck ?-ed like was bombardded a bit by tiny glassy those particles, like as if someone scratched the window.

Otherwise here we also don't know nothing; volcanologists of all calibres are being terrorised re the exact composition of the "liquid glass" and how it behaves at var. temperatures, and all.

[eagle21]

Let me get this straight: failures on all four engines and a 25,000+ feet drop isn't worrying to you? I mean, sure, that's ok if you're at FL410, but maybe not at, say, FL240?!

Judging some of the comments that SOME pilots have made today, I am increasingly satisfied with the need for ATC to provide some adult supervision in the world of aviation...


But you forget to mention they actually flew over th e plume itself at night. All we are asking is:

1. Real tests of air in all different air spaces that have been closed.

2. Reduced restrictions eg; allow daytime VMC flying.

3. Change ATC procedures so flights can reach FL200 in the fastest way possible.



Anyway this is now an international emergency and as such a compromise will have to be found. It is a matter of a when European ministers get their act together. Sometimes it feels like the UK they are very slow coping with anything out of the usual, such as snow.

[EGLD]

Let me get this straight: failures on all four engines and a 25,000+ feet drop isn't worrying to you? I mean, sure, that's ok if you're at FL410, but maybe not at, say, FL240?!

Judging some of the comments that SOME pilots have made today, I am increasingly satisfied with the need for ATC to provide some adult supervision in the world of aviation...

Maybe the restarting of the engines was unrelated to the time afforded by a 24,000 feet drop and more to do with the new altitude it found itself at?

[PENKO]

I hope the Dutch pilots association did not really say this. One empty 737 which did a flight and survived is not proof.

Our met offices probably have a good idea where the ash is and AMS is not far from the node. The issue is whether the ash density and makeup could affect safe flight at certain altitudes and, if so, which? Without this knowledge I would question how anyone can claim safe dispatch.

First of all it wasn't empty, the CEO was on board, also head of flight ops.
Second, it's not just one flight, KLM is in the proces of flying ten aircraft from Germany back to Holland.

What do you propose to solve this mess we're in? We have got to go forward some way otherwhise it will be game over pretty soon.

[Young Paul]

Very interesting thread - much more information than has been available in the MSM, as I commented here (http://exilefromgroggs.********.com/2010/04/ash-cloud.html). Also the wonderful diversity of opinions for which forums such as this are (in)famous for :\

I live close to LGW, and the sky is hazy today - though it's hard to know if this is normal high-pressure pollution or anything more igneous. There has been dust on the cars, but I'd agree it looks more like pollen, at least here.

I also agree that within hours (not days) people should have been doing substantial research on validating computer models, the impact of different concentrations of ash on aircraft and engines, and attempting to identify safe areas of airspace. We have the ability to dynamically shut areas of airspace (military, purple airspace), and I'm sure this could have been used, perhaps with significant flow control, to keep things moving.

The fact that so little of the MSM commentary has been scientifically informed has resulted in the volcano becoming a "bogeyman" - this will also cause lasting damage to air travel once the risk has gone. I have no doubt that it is a tough call to be one of the people recommending shutdown of airspace - it's even tougher to recommend reopening it - but hey, we all have jobs to do ....

[anotherthing]

BDiONU

Hitting your head against a brick wall I think. After all, some so called 'professionals' on here seem to think that a 747 suffering total engine failure, but manageing to relight them after a 20,000' drop is OK :ugh:.

Fortunate and lucky - yes... but a basis on which to resume flying :eek:

It has been mentioned many times - I'll say it once more, data stating what density in PPM of vocanic ash it is deemed safe fo Jet engines to fly through is woefully lacking.

Without such hard data it is very difficult not to impose a blanket ban, certainly in the early stages, and believe it or not, 5 days can be considered early.

This blanket ban may be lifted after lots of test flights, but the FACT of the matter is, if, as requested and mentioned in a post by a VAAC employee above, the manufacturers of the engines had tested and produced VA limits, the the blanket ban would not have been imposed. There would still have been restrictions to flying, but far less debilitating than we have at the moment.

The FACT that there are no such figures means that an industry that has safety as its number one priority - ATC ANSPs - can do noting else other than impose the restrictions.

It is the duty of the Government, with appropriate advisors, to step in and allow a variance on what are internationally accepted procedures.

The 'experts' on here (you know the ones who rubbish scientists etc) do not have a clue if they think that the buck stops with the ANSP.

[CaptSeeAreEmm]

Alice025

I am not an aviator. In our Rus. media the volcanic ash is not described as "ash", for general public like me. But as "liquid glass", Eyjafjallajoekull peculiarity now is producing "liquid glass". Which then flies as "tiny glass particles, 2mm big in size only" and "if not coloured by additives - you wouldn't see them, by un-aided eye".
The BA 1982 example, of 4 engines failure (and then working again) (post 1016 here) in Russian media was described by the pilots seeing nothing in the air at all but good day and clear skies. And only on the ground it was noticed the front window is like peck ?-ed like was bombardded a bit by tiny glassy those particles, like as if someone scratched the window.

Otherwise here we also don't know nothing; volcanologists of all calibres are being terrorised re the exact composition of the "liquid glass" and how it behaves at var. temperatures, and all.

They saw nothing because it was at night - had it been day they had seen a cloud like the one over Iceland now.

But again BA 009 is not relevant to the situation over central Europe today.

[circuitbreaker13]

Quote:"Let me get this straight: failures on all four engines and a 25,000+ feet drop isn't worrying to you? I mean, sure, that's ok if you're at FL410, but maybe not at, say, FL240?"

The point I was trying to make that there's a big difference between flying through a dense cloud of volcanic ash (like the BA) and flying through wat we have over Europe at the moment.

The point relating to BA's engines was that even them restarted so flying through European airspace at this moment poses no immidiate threat to the engines!!!!!

I am repeating myself but , Yes at the longer run it could mean highger maintenance cost and even a very thin layer off anything building up on turbineblades will be picked up by health monitoring.

And yes I would be worried if it would cause engines to stall and quit during flight.

[Deeko01]

A BA 747 is scheduled to fly from Heathrow to Cardiff today via 50N20W airborne for 3 hrs 50 ish, assuming they are doing there own tests and conducting a maintenance check in Cardiff afterwards???

[VAACman]

i read the summary of the WMO meeting 2007.
In its final paragraph, it says that clear limit - data on acceptable
ash concentrations in the athmosphere are required from manufacturers
and authorities, as ash-clouds will become indetectable after a while....
but some ash residue will still be around. So, does anyone know of limitations published since then ?

No. Work may proceed more quickly now! But in fairness to them, Airbus started talking in earnest before the current crisis.

As has been noted many times here, volcanic ash pervades the atmosphere and so the warning has to stop somewhere. The limit of damage appears to be something a bit below concentrations that can be remotely sensed in normal conditions (i.e. when the cloud can't be remotely sensed it might still be dangerous for a little while longer. There have been some examples of aircraft encountering clouds that have turned out to be mostly sulphates (hey, and we love flying through sulphuric acid, don't we?) without much ash, and some controversy around how dangerous these are (Google: Hekla 2000 NASA Grindle - a 35 hour old cloud from Hekla, Iceland)

[Young Paul]

anotherthing: So let's get researching, dude! We have a wonderful sandbox, with no commercial traffic in the way anywhere. And the airlines are losing so much money that I'm sure they'd be prepared to offer an airframe each if they were told it might get things moving in 24 hours.

Please STOP referring to BA009. This is unhelpful. Nobody is talking about flying through the plume. All that's happening is that it is feeding the media frenzy and popular panic about the risks. We are more likely to be talking about reducing engine lives (possibly substantially) than losing airframes.

[FR1A]

BA are prob sending some of the old timers up to reduce their pension deficit.

[Doodles]

We are more likely to be talking about reducing engine lives (possibly substantially) than losing airframes.

Young Paul - is that statement meant to provide comfort? Doesn't seem to have much certainty to me. We don't know for sure, but is that not the point?

I'm currently stuck overseas but not sure if I want to go based on "more likely" and "possibly subtantially..". Surely we need the test results to be more conclusive yet.

[Mpharn]

If you are in the UK, please go out and check your car if it was parked outdoors last night.
The volcanic ash is clearly visible today and it looks very abrasive indeed, golden colour, very fine, never seen something like that in the UK beforehttp://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/censored.gif.http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/thumbs.gif

Exactly what I had on my car this mroning described to a tee. I'm in Peterborough.
My two cents? Saftey comes first.......... and I do have a replacable air filter under my bonnet.

[Young Paul]

Aw, look, it's really not hard to do research. Launch an aeroplane, let it fly around for a couple of hours, then when it gets down, take the engine apart. It's not like the airlines, pilots or engineers have much else to do with their time at the moment.

Better still, launch five, into areas with forecast different concentrations. Keep then within a safe distance of airfields. Stick a couple of observers on each to additionally report anything odd, provide additional support in case anything does go wrong. There are about a thousand aircraft sitting around doing nothing, at a guess, and the airlines are collectively losing hundreds of millions of pounds a day. There is no shortage of pilots who would be more than happy to fly a "weathership". If the crew are really freaked by something, head for home as soon as anything deviates from normal - in the knowledge that you have the undivided attention of ATC, fire services, airports .....

[mixture]

cb,

The point I was trying to make that there's a big difference between flying through a dense cloud of volcanic ash (like the BA) and flying through wat we have over Europe at the moment.


The following Airbus document doesn't really say much apart from "be careful out there", but it does say :

In service events show that even low concentration of volcanic ash can cause expensive damage.


http://www.airbus.com/fileadmin/media_gallery/files/safety_library_items/AirbusSafetyLib_-FLT_OPS-OPS_ENV-SEQ06.pdf

[430tststs]

Question i was looking to: Eyjafjallajökull frá Hvolsvelli (http://eldgos.mila.is/eyjafjallajokull-fra-thorolfsfelli/)

Seems to give a totally different picture than yesterday.

Smoke also move in different direction. Is it a different cam or what?


Grtz

[officewallah]

"Aw, look, it's really not hard to do research. Launch an aeroplane, let it fly around for a couple of hours, then when it gets down, take the engine apart. It's not like the airlines, pilots or engineers have much else to do with their time at the moment."




I think Easy are looking to do that tomorrow, possibly from LTN?

[jghill]

Exactly what I had on my car this mroning described to a tee. I'm in Peterborough.
My two cents? Saftey comes first.......... and I do have a replacable air filter under my bonnet.Not a sausage here, on any of the last three days. Either at the office in Edinburgh or at home in Fife.

[PH-SCP]

Amsterdam FIR just opened up for VFR traffic:

A) EHAA
B) 1004181324 C) 1004182359EST
E) DUE TO VOLCANIC ACTIVITY IN ICELAND AND THE RESULTING ASHCLOUDS IN
THE AMSTERDAM FIR, ALL CIVIL IFR OPERATIONS ARE PROHIBITED.
VFR FLIGHTS ARE ALLOWED AT OWN DISCRETION. AFTER COMPLETING EACH VFR
FLIGHT A PILOT REPORT SHOULD BE FILED IMMEDIATLY TO
VULKAAN(AT)KNMI.NL CONTAINING FOLLOWING INFORMATION: ROUTE, ALTITUDE,
DATE AND TIME OF FLIGHT IN LOCAL TIME, OBSERVATIONS REGARDING
(ASH)CLOUDS. EVEN WHEN NO OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE A PILOT REPORT
IS MANDATORY. WHEN EMAIL IS NOT AVBL A PILOT REPORT CAN BE MADE TO
LOCAL ATC BY RADIO OR AIRPORT AUTHORITY.
ALSO, CAA-NL STATES THE PITOT TUBE SHOULD BE CHECKED CAREFULLY BEFORE
AND AFTER EACH FLIGHT AND ALSO INCREASED MONITORING OF FLIGHT SPEED
AND HEIGHT INDICATION AND WINDSCREEN TRANSPARENCY DURING FLIGHT IN
THE RISK AREA.
POLICE, SAR AND HEMS FLIGHTS ARE EXEMPTED. SFC/FL245.)

[Mr Angry from Purley]

Aerologic are alledgedly attempting a LEJ-CVG flight today on a 777 :\

[hetfield]

Germany
Berlin-Tegel, Berlin-Schönefeld, Erfurt, Leipzig, Hannover and Hamburg

re opened for departures to the east.

[Shackman]

Glad to see the (Met Research?) Dornier fly past here - near to EGOS - just now, hopefully finding out more for us. Slightly concerned though to see it so low - approx 1500-2000ft - as it continued northwards, presumably towards Manchester/west coast.

[p51guy]

It seems like using those military drones with sensing equipment to measure ash would be the safest and most efficient way to monitor the cloud.

[PENKO]

VAACman, I'm not a mod or anything, but welcome, and thanks for logging in. It's nice to hear from the experts.

[PPRuNe Towers]

Puolustusvoimat - Frsvarsmakten - The Finnish Defence Forces (http://www.ilmavoimat.fi/index.php?id=1149)

Worth a moment of the sceptics' time.

[obnoxious]

It looks like the greenies and http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/censored.gif are charge all over Europe and the volcanic ash cloud has proved to be a godsent excuse to ground those horrible, noisy and dreadful polluting jets. The lunatics are in charge of the asylum.:uhoh: maybe or maybe not, time will tell.

[sprocky_ger]

There are Condor aircraft over Germany currently.

Flight Number : CFG881
Company : Condor Flugdienst
ICAO Hex Code : 3C4AA6
Reg Code : D-ABUF
Model : Boeing - B767-330 (ER)
Last Message : 14:49:03 UTC
Latitude : 50.29923
Longitude : 8.15653
Altitude : 10126 m - 33222 ft
Ground Speed : 834 km/h - 518 mph - 450 knots
Vertical Speed : -858 m/min - -2815 ft/min (DESCENT)
Squawk : 7654
Heading : 302º

A second one is at 24,000.
Source: radarvirtuel.com/

[marconiphone]

The point I was trying to make that there's a big difference between flying through a dense cloud of volcanic ash (like the BA) and flying through wat we have over Europe at the moment.

Well yes OK, circuitbreaker13, that is indeed the point, or part of it, but not in the way you intend. The stuff that's in the atmosphere now is potentially more lethal precisely because, given the role of ice in the eruption, it is not just garden-variety volcanic ash.

Some posts in this thread undermine my confidence in the judgement of many who practise the profession of pilotry (if there is such a word ...).

[allrounder99]

1. This comparison is irrelevant...... why? wind.

2. The indon incident, cost millions of dollars and nearly killed 400 people, if we told you that the concentration of ppm was x, how do you come up with a figure that is safe? You cannot.

3. See answer number 1.

4. no good answer here but, Enroute avoidance is slightly different from flying through what is known to be there. eg Depart into the ash, fly through it, land in it. Domestic European flight.

5. just a stab at this answer but ICAO rules prevent ATC from allowing you to use the airspace when ash is known or forecast. Perhaps in other parts of the world, ie indon, they don't subscribe to these parts of ICAO. I know that Australia picks and chooses what ICAO rules to adopt. That is why this volcano is different.

6. Hawaii may have been using a piston engine aircraft, or again may not have had laws preventing the flight.

7. Erm, Russia is more west than western europe. This argument is like saying why the hell is Kazakhstan and China still flying.


A return fire question to you. How many deaths need to spared for you to say that the ban was worth it?

[PENKO]

Marconiphone, so just what do you call those KLM, Lufthansa and Condor pilots who are flying right now in search of a solution? It's nice to say that the ice may even make this ash even more dangerous (please give a link to this, not heard it before), but that does not answer the question: is there enough of the stuff up here to do any damage?

Any sensible pilot would ground his airplane the moment he thinks there is a real threat out there, so that's not the point.


Allrounder, if 'wind' is your answer to question number one, we might as well close of the rest of the worlds airspace. Clearly that's not what you want. So the question is very relevant. How close was Moody to the vulcano, how relevant is his case to our little situation.

[TheWanderer]

Germany has now opened the airports Berlin, Hannover, Erfurt and Leipzig until 2000 local time for flights to the East.

[tcmel]

They've been running for days... granted they're stationary, but whatever lens (or window the lens is behind) isn't pitted, or even dusted up..... You'd think at that proximity, even if all were upwind (and the two I'm watching are in opposition to each other, it would appear), you'd think there'd be SOME residue. No big conclusion being drawn (or jumped to) here, just a simple observation.

[Matt101]

There are Condor aircraft over Germany currently.

Transavia are airborne to. Over Nijmegan at the moment. Seems everyone is at it.

[jpp]

It is almost ten years since I read this forum almost every day. I found an extaordinary amount of valuable and interesting informations. Some experts make here an extraordinary work. Bravo to all of them.

As I am only a SLF I refrained from posting until today (just reading up to now). I jumped over the fence because I have 2 facts that I am unable to fit with the general informations regarding the ash cloud and grounding of flights. This isprobably because I miss something and you may help me to know what.

1st fact:
All vulcanologists say that the present icelandic eruption is a small one (less than a cubic km of ash sofar) compared to some bigger eruption in the world which can throw up to several hundreds of cubic km of ash.
Iceland has several active volcanoes erupting each year with the same intensity or greater, sometimes several in the same time.
How can it happen that we were not hurt by the phenomenon during the last past 20 years? I found a partial answer in this thread : the jetstreams blow in an unfavarable and uncommon direction towards us. OK. But what is the usual direction ? The answer is also in this thread : directly from Iceland to the south mid-atlantic.

Therefore, what I do not understand is how transatlantic flights (some passing relatively close to Iceland) never cross ash clouds comming from active volcano in the past? It is hard to believe and apparently nobody has been frighten by this volcanic activity until nowadays. Why?

2nd fact
It happens that I was on board of a Lan Chile flight in april 2008 when the Chalten volcano has suddenly erupted with a HUGE eruption. Thru the window, I could see the huge column of ash although we were probably as far as 500 km away (a little south of Santiago). Fortunately for us, we were north-east of the volcano and the ash cloud was going straight to the west. BUT, the same week I had a phone call with my friends who live in Buenos Aires and they told me they could hardly breathe because of the volcanic smoke which was comming up to them right in the street of Buenos Aires (1500 km away from the volcano). As far as I know (I was watching at the announced schedules to see if my next flights were affected) none or very little flights have been canceled during this period. Including the flights BA - Calafate and BA - Ushuaia which were passing relatively close to the volcano downwind.

I ear that the present situation is very dangerous, enough to ground the entire european fleet, but this seems to me relatively uncompatible which what I described above. Please can somebody help me to find what it special with thr current volcanic activity?

By the way, it is not just free speculation, I expect to fly to Indonesia in 10 days from now if the gods and ATC permit.

[markkal]

Ash will damage jet engines and piston ones as well (If they have no filters).

The dust cloud these day at my latitude may be lingering high above me but i don't see it. It must be well diluted... The sky is deep blue and at night stars are deep white...

Airports are quiet, and liners have their intakes covered, sometimes by improvised plastic and tape.

"Dust" is now the issue but what about sand ? Nobody talks about it.

I am not even referring to sand Storms but to thermic moderate winds blowing in many North African places and Gulf states .

Last year in September I went to an Airshow in Tripoli Libya, with a Sukhoi 29 and 2 Extra 300's.

The weather was really great with only light wind blowing.

That light wind was carrying sand, to be deposited all over the place.

Neither the Sukhoi nor the Extra's have air filters. So the cylinders ingurgitate what bother's our eyes and grind our teeth.

Nothing we could do about it, other than cover the air intakes whenever we were not flying, and flushing those canopies with water to avoid scratching.

But what about the Mig's , Marchetti's, Antonov's and Boeings most used daily all covered with a thin layer of sand ???

Let me tell you, when we came back home we had to strip every panel and clean every part, shampoo for fuselage and wings, gasoline with compressed air for the engine bay, the undercarriage and all hinges.

Sand was everywhere, we brought back a few ounces judging by the brownish streak left on the floor after water/gasoline evaporated..

I'd like to hear about someone who has experience with such an environment, or somebody who'se been working on engines exposed to such a harsh treatment!!!

[11Fan]

tcmel,

granted they're stationary

You may have answered your own question. Stationary, versus aircraft moving at 600MPH and Fan blades turning at a high RPM.

[Say Mach Number]

Call me a chicken but last time i looked before i put on my uniform and stepped into my 737 it didnt have TEST PILOT written on it anywhere. I aint going anywhere near the skies until the experts say OK. By experts I mean profs who know about this stuff not some pilots from Holland and Germany.
Sat at home enjoying the weather and rerun of the Grand Prix.

[Feline]

@ Penko
Marconiphone, so just what do you call those KLM, Lufthansa and Condor pilots who are flying right now in search of a solution? It's nice to say that the ice may even make this ash even more dangerous (please give a link to this, not heard it before), but that does not answer the question: is there enough of the stuff up here to do any damage?

There was a post much earlier in this thread where one of the experts described that what happens is that when the lava hits the ice of the covering glacier: It freezes into glass; then the pressure builds up and it explodes - which shatters the previously frozen glass into sharp-edged shards of glass.
This makes it different from sand because (a) sand has rounded edges, and (b) the melting point of sand is way above the temperatures encountered in a jet engine, whereas the glass (more accurately, silicate) has a melting point considerably lower than the temperatures in a jet engine.

OK?

[hetfield]

By experts I mean profs who know about this stuff not some pilots from Holland and Germany.

Good one:D:O:*

[Nemrytter]

Hello JetII

[peck]

As mentioned by jcjeant in 791

Seem's they forget the volcanic ashes http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/smile.gif

and if there is no measurement of Volcanic ash density....

seems we are in bad shape to establish procedures.

I think is time to a more engineering aproach....

[ChalfontFlyer]

Announced on BBC News a few minutes ago that the BA 747 test flight planned for this evening (but still apparently subject to confirmation) will have just 5 people on board including Willie Walsh.

[22 Degree Halo]

HVO (Lagu Hvolar) seismometer which is the closest to Katla is peaking:
Órói á stöðvum við Eyjafjallajökul (http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Katla2009/stodvaplott.html)

Tremor (http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/englishweb/tremor.html)

[PENKO]

OK? I thought vulcanic ash was rougher than sand anyway. With the process discribed above, freezing lava on a bed of ice, there can't be that much glass in the sky? How much ice is left to be blown up on a vulcano that has been erupting for almost a week?

Re Dutch and German experts. All you have to do is fly through those dangerous skies and let the engineers on the ground examine the results. A bit more respect for the people who are actually working on a solution might suit us!

[AEST]

By experts I mean profs who know about this stuff not some pilots from Holland and Germany.

Oh, you mean like the politicians running the NATS?

[Dash-7 lover]

Smell of sulphur in the village yesterday and fine sandy dust on the car and that's in Cornwall. I believe Skybus continued operating between NQY and ISC up until yesterday when the found ash onone of their Twotters. BIH helicopters from Penzance have since stopped. I've stood all my crew down for tomorrow and cancelled everything. It makes for a quiet day.

Going to bring some old tins of paint in and redecorate the office tomorrow!

[sabenaboy]

Aw, look, it's really not hard to do research. Launch an aeroplane, let it fly around for a couple of hours, then when it gets down, take the engine apart. It's not like the airlines, pilots or engineers have much else to do with their time at the moment.

Better still, launch five, into areas with forecast different concentrations. Keep then within a safe distance of airfields. Stick a couple of observers on each to additionally report anything odd, provide additional support in case anything does go wrong. There are about a thousand aircraft sitting around doing nothing, at a guess, and the airlines are collectively losing hundreds of millions of pounds a day. There is no shortage of pilots who would be more than happy to fly a "weathership". If the crew are really freaked by something, head for home as soon as anything deviates from normal - in the knowledge that you have the undivided attention of ATC, fire services, airports .....

Couldn't agree more :D

[hetfield]

will have just 5 people on board including Willie Walsh

@say mach number

Are these people at your taste?
;)

[AEST]

A return fire question to you. How many deaths need to spared for you to say that the ban was worth it?Brilliant observation, if we shut down forever we'll be saving lots of lives from avoided accidents (in fact we should shut down those areas not affected by the volcano too given that some accidents will happen there too. If the Poles had forbidden any and all flights undoubtedly the Katyn accident would have been avoided)

[22 Degree Halo]

On this cam it's clearly erupting still

Eyjafjallajökull frá Valahnúk (http://eldgos.mila.is/eyjafjallajokull-fra-valahnjuk/)

[Lost in Saigon]

Call me a chicken but last time i looked before i put on my uniform and stepped into my 737 it didnt have TEST PILOT written on it anywhere. I aint going anywhere near the skies until the experts say OK. By experts I mean profs who know about this stuff not some pilots from Holland and Germany.
Sat at home enjoying the weather and rerun of the Grand Prix.

I guess from your response and the aircraft you fly, that you have never flown near active volcanoes before.

After 30 years and 18,000 hours, I have flown near near lots of active volcanoes in the Pacific and Caribbean. Occasionally I have had to re-route around ash clouds of those that erupt while in flight.

I am having a difficult time understanding what appears to be a large scale over reaction to a world wide phenomenon which happens quite regularly.

[hansw]

There is a solution for almost every problem. :cool:
http://i43.tinypic.com/21c5hfd.jpg

[VeroFlyer]

GSLOC are you sure it's stopped, we all want to hear that it has...fingers crossed!

[PENKO]

Airspace may open tomorrow
Yep, thanks to the idiots from Germany and Holland I presume?
Will the nay sayers on here subsequently refuse to work tomorrow?:ok:

Good news anyway, but once we resume flight, we as air crew will need some UNAMBIGUOUS sensible information as to what we are to be careful of once up in the air. Is it the invisible cloud of the last few days? Or should we just look out for the nasty brown stuff? Might that cirrus cloud be ash, or was that just overreaction from NATS? We desperately need that info clearly.

[Overhaul]

Acording to AENA the following airports reopen today from 15:30

Barcelona, Girona, Reus, Sabadell, Palma de Mallorca, Menorca, Son Bonet, Asturias, Santander, Bilbao, San Sebastián, Vitoria, Pamplona, Logroño, Huesca y Zaragoza

[22 Degree Halo]

Behind the cumulus when there is a small break in cloudcover, it's for sure still erupting..

[vapilot2004]

I find this event has caught airlines flying to the UK and EU countries with their collective pants down and I am very surprised there are not alternative contingencies being sought out. With thousands of passengers being kept in sandwiches and marginal accommodations around the world, how is it that an actionable plan is not worked out among our transit partners?

For example, for those seeking to return home to the EU and UK, why have flights not begun departing for the still remaining open airports in Southern Italy and Spain and then motor coach and rail could carry passengers home from there? The same could be accomplished for the reverse - that is those wishing to leave the UK and European continent.

Finally one other point: Here in the states there are hundreds of passengers stranded at JFK with a few of the lucky ones finding rooms in nearby Manhattan and Brooklyn. How is it that society has become so jaded and disconnected that local residents and civic organizations haven't opened their hearts and doors to these unlucky travelers? There would seem to be a threshold of misfortune that must be crossed before people start thinking beyond their own perimeters and comfort zones.

[AEST]

or was that just overreaction from NATS? We desperately need that info clearly.

You seriously expect politicians to admit to hysteria?

[BDiONU]

Oh, you mean like the politicians running the NATS?
NATS is a private company, the only ANSP in Europe which is not run by government. However the skies are owned by the government and NATS operate with the terms of the licence issued by the government.
NATS is the UK ANSP, all the other European ANSPs have acted similarly to NATS (although Norway was first) although some countries have banned flying completely the UK has not.

BD

[marlowe]

According to Sky news BA gonna use a 747 for a test flight from LHR out over Ireland and then into CWL 5 people onboard including Willy Walsh.

[timmcat]

Still looks like it going here... 3rd pic down, manual refresh required. Cloud keeps getting in the way but it was clear a few minutes ago!

Mulakot - myndavelar (http://www.mulakot.net/myndavelar.html)

[22 Degree Halo]

You will need to manually refresh for current shots: http://www.mulakot.net/images/myndavelar/14flugv.jpg

[Dash-7 lover]

When this eventually ends and NATS give the green light, has anyone thought of the possible rush to get to an airport by 4+ days backlog of passengers. It's going to be bedlam for the larger airports. I would imagine that most have stayed in situ and are sitting it out in hotels, family homes etc.

[silverstrata]

I love the way everybody jumps onto the engine damage bandwagon whilst totally ignoring the dangers involved with the total blockage of the pitot static system. Especially after the Air France event that could have been caused by a similar situation albeit rapid ice blockage. I admit fully that damage to the engines is extremely concerning the other dangers are no less worrying!


Now that is a possible failure mode that IS analogous to flying in dust/sand storms. Not much evidence of pitot blockage in these conditions - especially as none of the 'lets fly' brigade here are envisaging flying in heavily contaminated areas. I've seen more dust on my mantlepiece than in the channel skies this weekend.

I did once get an ice warning at 39o centigrade, which turned out to be an insect of some kind hitting the probe, but I don't think the ash will do anything similar.

.

[Squawk_ident]

re-opened above FL205 at 1450z

[silverstrata]

According to Sky news BA gonna use a 747 for a test flight from LHR out over Ireland and then into CWL 5 people onboard including Willy Walsh.


What did I tell you. Big transport operating on two engines (two back at idle, so no melting) flying as high as possible and into the dirtiest areas to check for engine damage. :D :D

Nice to see you are reading my posts Willie, but you are two days too late, you've lost £50 million already. My commission for getting BA flying again is 5%. You can credit my Jersey account. :ok: :ok:


Shame he cannot find a Nimrod, though. :( :(


.

[Say Mach Number]

Lost in Saigon I guess from your response your not an expert in the field of volcanoes and the effects on jet engines of volcanic ash but as a commercial pilot just like me.

In your opinion it may be 'a large scale over reaction' but the experts disagree.

I think I will stick on the side of the volcanoe and engine experts.

PS its difficult to avoid something you cant see especially at night. Thats my opinion as a pilot not as a volcanic ash expert.

[sabenaboy]

5) The safe concentration of ash issue has been ongoing for a while and it's not simple. Most of all it's the users (airline industry) that needs to set a warning standard that the VAACs aim to achieve - at the moment it's avoid all ash, which in practice means avoid all 'visible' (reasonable evidence that it's there) ash.

There you have it. Even a VAAC insider says it: avoid all 'visible' (reasonable evidence that it's there) ash. :D

All the rest is overreacting! :eek:

[AEST]

NATS is a private company, the only ANSP in Europe which is not run by government. However the skies are owned by the government and NATS operate with the terms of the licence issued by the government.You forgot to mention that Zee Govt is the largest shareholder w 49% of the shares. Which means that it will appoint most board members and approve any executives.

Do you still maintain that it's a private company, or would you rather admit it's Zee Govt pretending to be a private company run by Politicians.

[Digitalis]

The arguments here seem to be based on either one of two polemics:

a) There is no problem. We've all been flying near volcanoes for years and only those aircraft unlucky enough to stray too close have ever had a problem. Or

b) You pilots are all crazy. There's no way anyone should be flying under any circumstances when there's all this volcanic debris in the air.

Patently both points of view are extreme and both are probably wrong. Yes, it's true that we've been flying for years around these things, but we haven't ever, as far as I know, had the current combination of this type of volcanic eruption and a static met situation which parks the lot over the world's busiest airspace. It's probably also true that we haven't previously been able to detect much of the stuff that's now keeping us on the ground, and that a good deal of engine wear in the past maybe down to expeosure to similar stuff.

It's rubbish both to suggest that any flight that gets airborne now will suffer a multiple flame-out and all on board will die, just as it's rubbish to say that there will be no ill-effects on any aircraft that does fly. What has to be determined is the acceptable potential maintenance load we may be incurring if we fly sensibly removed from the densest ash concentrations. It is obvious that all jet transport aircraft are exposed to some extent to volcanic ash every time they fly, as volcanoes are continuously erupting around the world and the residue is constantly present in the atmosphere. As data has not yet been adequately gathered to assess what effects this current phenomenon has on aircraft, it makes economic sense that that data is acquired right now. Whether anyone here likes it or not, there are aircraft and crews available and ready to do this if the funding is found. I have no doubt that, facing financial oblivion otherwise, the airline industry will find that money.

Indeed, it seems they are finding it, as KLM, Lufthansa and BA (and maybe others) are launching test flights as we write. However, are these tests co-ordinated and is the data that is acquired representative and readable across to the general industry? Let's hope so.

Not flying indefinately is not an alternative. Pragmatism must win out.

[silverstrata]

A return fire question to you. How many deaths need to spared for you to say that the ban was worth it?



Ahhh, the new nineties and naughties cult of total risk aversion is still as strong as ever. I'll give you a piece of advice for future reference - life ain't like that kid. No aircraft would ever fly under your regime.


.

[Mountee]

Hi Someone posted that it had stopped, but Sky News reporter live on the ground not only confirmed it's still on but said it gets worse.

Also how can anyone doubt the damage to engines when you see that Fighter jet engine on the Sky News reports?

[RAPA Pilot]

I have been following the NATS news page closely since this all started and this afternoon I detect a shift in what they are saying.

IMHO they over-reacted and now need to climb down and save face.

Now they are using words like 'dynamic' and 'We are working closely with Government, airports and airlines, and airframe and aero engine manufacturers to get a better understanding of the effects of the ash cloud and to seek solutions.' I bet it will all be over by tomorrow and a statement along the lines of ' after extensive testing and in consultation with enging manufactures etc etc...the ban will be lifted from ??:??hrs

I hope I'm right.

[dc10fr8k9]

Digitalis, thank you...a lucid, intelligent post. No hyperbole, just pragmatic logic. I agree completely.

[Mech1111]

Whats the story if Katla blows?
looks like its doing something, but I dont understand the graphs fully
Órói á stöðvum við Eyjafjallajökul (http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Katla2009/stodvaplott.html)

[tcmel]

I bet it will all be over by tomorrow and a statement along the lines of ' after extensive testing and in consultation with enging manufactures etc etc...the ban will be lifted from ??:??hrs

I hope I'm right.

Sounds fair to me... Just as an FYI, the Met forecaster's blog has confirmed plume (though still active) is now down to 4-5km, much lower than in previous days.

[Air.Farce.1]

"Eyjafjallajökull has only erupted three times since the Vikings settled the island in the ninth century, most recently nearly two centuries ago when it blew intermittently for 14 months in the early 1820s– an alarming enough prospect for air traffic across the Atlantic. "

Just think ....another 14 months of this :eek:

The prospects dont look good ..........



Iceland volcano: an eyeful of Eyjafjallajökull - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/iceland/7601178/Iceland-volcano-an-eyeful-of-Eyjafjallajokull.html)

[nyt]

Digitalis, agreed. We all know the world is neither black nor white but ash grey :}

[eastern wiseguy]

Pragmatism must win out.

Theres the rub......who will sign off on it?

[lomapaseo]

Not flying indefinately is not an alternative. Pragmatism must win out.

It will. :ok:

We have to demonstrate the degree of safety vs risk in order to satisfy many.

A No risk objective is unachieveable when we fly. Acceptable risk is known and understood by only a few. Many people who post on forums do not understand risk management and what decides acceptable risk.

[Air.Farce.1]

have been following the NATS news page closely since this all started and this afternoon I detect a shift in what they are saying.

IMHO they over-reacted and now need to climb down and save face.

Now they are using words like 'dynamic' and 'We are working closely with Government, airports and airlines, and airframe and aero engine manufacturers to get a better understanding of the effects of the ash cloud and to seek solutions.' I bet it will all be over by tomorrow and a statement along the lines of ' after extensive testing and in consultation with enging manufactures etc etc...the ban will be lifted from ??:??hrs

I hope I'm right.

I doubt if anyone from NATS will climb down. Corporate manslaughter legislation would hang them from the highest tree if one or more deaths occurred. Safety is always their highest priority, and even though NATS is losing revenue no one would have the b***s to lift the restriction whilst ash was still in the atmosphere

[dc10fr8k9]

God...save us from those trying to save us!

[AEST]

Also how can anyone doubt the damage to engines when you see that Fighter jet engine on the Sky News reports?

The one where Zee (Finnish) Govt put out the before and after pics of the engines to justify their decision to ground everyone?

Ohh, wait where did those "before" pics disappear too?

[430tststs]

The news about the german airports that they are open now:

When look to the position of those airports to my opinion although i am a stupid dutchman as read above is because the could be simple: that in general when study the animations the dust in fact mostly split up 2 directions.
So the midle section to my speculation has not same density as left and right.

When geograph. look to the german airports who opened well than it fits my theory.
Could be that the midle is like 2 curtains open and go up to dusseldorf next 24 ours.

Offcourse dutch are stupid so we can make stupid theories.:ok:

I wonder what other theory better fits the line of german unlocks.
So why hamburg not? see above....

We see what happens after 20.00.

I have some more theories but because i am stupid i will think first from now on before post here lol :)

sorry for my stupid contributions....

73's

[Sporky]

Westland Seaking landed in Regents park 2 hours ago, so someone is flying.

Rather disturbed my picnic though! :ok:

[sabenaboy]

Also how can anyone doubt the damage to engines when you see that Fighter jet engine on the Sky News reports?

Nobody will contradict that volcanic ash can have such an effect on engines.
I would like to know what kind of conditions that fighter was flying in when that damage occurred.

I bet it was not in a clear blue sky, clear of all visible fumes!

[BDiONU]

You forgot to mention that Zee Govt is the largest shareholder w 49% of the shares. Which means that it will appoint most board members and approve any executives.
Yes the UK government is the largest shareholder at 49%, airline group have 46% and employees have 5%. No the government does not appoint or approve the executives.
Do you still maintain that it's a private company, or would you rather admit it's Zee Govt pretending to be a private company run by Politicians.
I don't need to admit anything, as an employee I can very clearly see and am very clearly aware that it is a private company.

BD

[Massey1Bravo]

Found this on Youtube today

Pd3KJVB8AuE

[thinkingpilot]

may i suggest a solution i have not heard yet
--- flight plan all flights BELOW 20k feet till clear of ash. I KNOW .lots more fuel but if worked out and tickets charged accordingly there yiou are . even long haul flights could be planned to climb after cloud and continue . most have the fuel capacity . i stand back and await brickbats

[Vick11]

According to reporting from the Finnish Air Force, the F18s did not fly in or near any cloud formations and did not see the dust particles that caused the damage.

[HeathrowAirport]

BAW9156 - Just taxied - going Cardiff doing a test flight at FL310/FL320

[RAPA Pilot]

NATS will in some way 'pass the buck' because they absolutely have to. Planes will not fall out of the sky.
They will say Manufactures will issue SB's to maintainance organisations that engine inspection times will be reduced.
There has to be an acceptable and managable risk and this is how NATS will justify opening up the airspace.

[firewall]

Been watching this event unfold and like many here was amazed at the reaction of NATS on day one to close airspace seemingly on the computer predictions of cloud dissipation. We continue to look at the clear blue skies as billions go up in smoke ,not just airline losses but the wider economy .
Well done to those operators who are getting airborne to conduct real evaluation of the environment and no doubt whoever made the decision to shut down are now trying to find a way out of the hole they have dug for themselves.
Air operators and aircraft commanders make decisions prior to and during every flight as to the safe conduct of that flight taking account of many factors including environmental conditions with reference to the regulations in their ops manuals which have been approved by the aviation authority and aircraft manufacturer. The ANSPs role is to coordinate the flow of traffic and ensure separation . They appear to have acted outside their remit this week as I don't believe they are qualified to decide whether it is safe for any or all aircraft to operate in this perceived threat .
No need for heroes but lets get back to the real world.

[AEST]

Yes the UK government is the largest shareholder at 49%, airline group have 46% and employees have 5%. No the government does not appoint or approve the executives.One of the curious things about any company is that the owners make decisions, and the major owner make the most important decisions.

Amongst these you will find the appointment/approval of board members and executives.

.... and closing the airspace or eventually opening it up again :ugh:

The folks down at the shop floor (or in front of that radar screen) aren't normally privy to these discussions.

[silverstrata]

Also how can anyone doubt the damage to engines when you see that Fighter jet engine on the Sky News reports?



But nobody has said how close to the really thick stuff he went. Knowing some fighter-jocks, they went quite close indeed.

That's why we need more data. That's why Willie Walsh is following my suggestion to fly a 747 through the ash.

[MPN11]

pleeeze get off the back of NATS - the Air Traffic Service [you know, don't bump into each other, that sort of thing?] ;)

Aircraft operations are determined by the CAA and the Operating Company ... and a whole bunch of other people too!

[jsypilot]

The French Prime Minister Francois Fillon has just announced that airports South of an axis Nice Bordeaux have reopened (Marseille, Toulouse, Bordeaux, etc.) this Sunday afternoon.

North of this axis the airports will remain closed until Tuesday morning.

[tcmel]

may i suggest a solution i have not heard yet
--- flight plan all flights BELOW 20k feet till clear of ash. I KNOW .lots more fuel but if worked out and tickets charged accordingly there yiou are . even long haul flights could be planned to climb after cloud and continue . most have the fuel capacity . i stand back and await brickbats
Good theory, if it weren't for all recent Met forecasts showing no significant ash ABOVE 20k.... It's the getting up there that's at issue. But I agree, If you can get up there, through the mess fast enough, and "blow out" the muck, you're good, till you have to get through it on descent....

[AEST]

According to reporting from the Finnish Air Force, the F18s did not fly in or near any cloud formations and did not see the dust particles that caused the damage.

.... and does not know when the damage actually occurred, but swear that everything looked great at last inspection 3 months ago :ok:

[BDiONU]

One of the curious things about any company is that the owners make decisions, and the major owner make the most important decisions.
The NATS board gave free rein to the previous CEO and the new incumbent has the same freedom.
.... and closing the airspace or eventually opening it up again :ugh.
Sigh, as I have explained several times in this thread it is NOT NATS decision just as it is not any of the other ANSPs in Europes decision. It is a government decision, the ANSPs, as the name suggests, are Service Providers and operate within the licence and regulations laid down by governments etc.

BD

[jaybob777]

Anyone heard anything from the Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurement aircraft G-LUXE ?
Has lots of bits and bobs fitted, not sure if its any good in this situation but would have thought so.

[HeathrowAirport]

BAW9156 (Test flight) has just got airborne out of Heathrow 27R. To conduct a 3hr test flight to Cardiff.

Is that first flight out of LHR since Thursday then?

[430tststs]

All four engines failed leaving only critical systems on backup electrical power. One report assigns the engine shutdown to the turning of the ash into a glass coating inside the engines that fooled the engine temperature sensors and led to an auto-shutdown of all four engines.

When all four main generators shut off due to the failure of all the engines, a momentary power interruption occurs when the flight instruments transfer to standby power. Standby power on the 747-400 is provided by two batteries and inverters. The captain performed the engine restart procedure which was not successful on the first few attempts and was repeated until restart was achieved. On some of the attempts, as one or more (but not all) engines started to operate, the main generator would switch back on. This switching on and off caused repeated power transfer interruptions to the flight instruments. The temporary blanking of the instruments gave the appearance that standby power had failed. These power transfers were later verified from the flight data recorder.

After descending more than 14,000 feet, Captain Karl van der Elst and crew were finally able to restart the engines and safely land the plane. In this case the ash caused more than us 80 million in damage to the aircraft (requiring all four engines to be replaced), but no lives were lost and no one was injured.As of 2010, the aircraft is still in service with KLM under the KLM Asia livery.


Dutch are stupid but also lucky sometimes :)

Thnx for the video, and offcourse i agree safety first.
Lets not forget also in this case the flight went through very thick cloud of dust. !!!

[Twitcher]

Anyone heard anything from the Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurement aircraft G-LUXE ?
Has lots of bits and bobs fitted, not sure if its any good in this situation but would have thought so.

'tis hangared and under heavy maintenance . . bad timing :(

[timraper]

With the levels of eg. British citizens now stuck abroad, and the possible length of time this may continue, the eventual repatriation effort might turn into a humanitarian one ! Might we see the British government(election pending) stepping in or can the airlines and charter operators cope to bring this to a swift end.
JMO :bored:

[FA10]

Quote:
Originally Posted by mountee
Also how can anyone doubt the damage to engines when you see that Fighter jet engine on the Sky News reports?

Nobody will contradict that volcanic ash can have such an effect on engines.
I would like to know what kind of conditions that fighter was flying in when that damage occurred.

I bet it was not in a clear blue sky, clear of all visible fumes!


Maybe ash encounter can have had the mentioned effect on the fighter engines.

But: How did these Engines look BEFORE the flight into the cloud?
Hopefully engineering at LH, KLM, AUA, BA,... that were doing very publicity effective flights with their bosses on board of one single aircraft (!!) have got a very good documentation about the state of the engines directly before todays departure.
If not, it either looks like nothing else than normal wear or "almost total destruction", depending on what you want to see.
They need data to compare, not just a few pictures to create an illusion!

[jaybob777]

Timing is everything......... Surely the D check schedule should have the odd volcanic eruption factored into the plan !

Oh well, I guess its back to Willie and his Jumbo.

[tcmel]

Anyone know what is flying over Belgium right now? Flightradar only gives callsign "111"? Almost at French Border...

[DutchBird-757]

BA has cancelled all London flights on monay 19th.
RYR has cancelled all UK flights until wednesday!

[cpaterson]

Flight 111 = Reg Code : D-AHFP according to Radar Virtuel

[ElyFlyer]

Breaking News from a press conference by Eurocontrol. They are hoping 50% of flights in europe will be able to operate tomorrow. Some good news at last!:ok:

[stagger]

It's not simply engine failures during volcanic ash exposure that needs to be considered.

Is it not possible that a period of significant ash exposure may have implications for engine in-flight shutdown (IFSD) rates in the weeks and months to come? Is it safe to assume that engines that have spent significant time operating in ash environments will have the same IFSD rates as those that have not?

ETOPS certification depends on statistical assumptions based on IFSD rates. If ash exposure leads to changes in IFSD rates then these assumptions may no longer be valid. The fact that both engines on an airframe will likely share the same recent history of ash exposure is also relevant.

[PENKO]

Well, there we go, KLM starts flying commercially tonight. No passengers, only freight, but still. According to the CEO European airspace is safe with the exception of parts between Iceland and Russia.

Hope the rest follows soon.

[tcmel]

Thanks, there's now a second one, assuming Germany-France. HLX113. Two flights over Belgium in three days. Let's hear it for progress. :rolleyes:

[Fatfish]

Fond memories: Daily wiping off ash from the 1991 Mount Pinotubo eruption from my car with my feather duster before driving to Singapore Changi airport for flight duty. :)
Not a fond memory: 3 Engines quitting on a Singapore 747 from the plum of Mount Gulunggung just three weeks after Capt Moody's famous glide.:eek:
I guess its all down to the intensity of the ash. If they allow flights, I hope it only be VFR/Day. :hmm:

[MPN11]

Breaking News from a press conference by Eurocontrol. They are hoping 50% of flights in europe will be able to operate tomorrow. Some good news at last!

If that's a joke, you will die a VERY slow and painful death ;)

[ElyFlyer]

I promise its not. Its on Sky News now

[PENKO]

I'll repeat :)
KLM has resumed limited commercial operations tonight

Common sense prevails.

[windshear-a-head]

Got to admire the Russians - Aeroflot en-route from Moscow to Madrid, only departed 10 minutes late and will arrive (hoepfully :}) in Madrid on-time.

[22 Degree Halo]

Where is the BA test flight? Off radar now?

[slatterri]

Virtual RADAR box showing G-CIVC 747 over Brecon VOR heading West around 18:17 at 20,000ft and 350KTs.

[PhilV]

HLX2262 currently up from FAO TO HAJ 165 on Board. TUI bringing its guests out of Hell.

[tcmel]

Any info on dep/destination of KLM flights?

[1985]

Well, there we go, KLM starts flying commercially tonight. No passengers, only freight, but still. According to the CEO European airspace is safe with the exception of parts between Iceland and Russia.

Hope the rest follows soon

He might have a biased view though? :hmm:

NATS and the other ANSP's don't want this to continue as much as the airlines don't. They are losing money by the day aswell. Its silly for anyone to suggest otherwise. They restricted the airspace on the basis of what science there is and the met data available. Its not their fault that there is very little science available. The countries that do regularly deal with volcanos and ash clouds haven't done any because they have the available airspace to fly round them, which isn't possible in western europe. And there is no data availble on how ash affects jet engines because no research has ever been done beyond very basic stuff in response to previous incidents. Noone knows how dense or big the particles have to be in order to stop an engine, they only know that it can happen.

All the ANSP's went for the safest possible cause of action based on the information that they had, which is the whole point of of the ANSP, to provide the safest possible air traffic service they can. It is then up to the regulators, CAA, ICAO, etc and the various governments to decide when it is safe to fly.

[WojtekSz]

northern and central parts of Poland are reopened for air traffic

[rayand]

Yes, I meant year!

[PENKO]

The KLM flights departure from Amsterdam, destination was not mentioned on the news. All three are freight flights departing in daylight, as permitted by the Dutch authorities.

Yeah, the KLM CEO might have a biased view. One however supported maybe by testflights of more than ten of his own aircraft and many more European airlines.

[zfw]

Looking at the Raderbox there are currently a few aircraft testing the skies.

BAW9156 GCIVC over South Wales at 30000ft

HLX2262 DATUK 738 EDDF-LEMH at 38000ft

HLX113 DAHFI 738 over Holland at 41000ft

TUIFLY111 738 DAHFP over Northern France at 41000ft

AFR383S 773 FGQSD Heading toward Paris at 24000ft

DCALM is also up again in the UK

[430tststs]

mph97 just left schiphol

[PhilV]

HLX2262 DATUK 738 EDDF-LEMH at 38000ft

not a test as i said. 165 stranded passengers on board. Collected in FAO

[JanetFlight]

Yeap....but when all things start to be more cool, take a look at this from the very last hours »»»

Órói á stöðvum við Eyjafjallajökul (http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Katla2009/stodvaplott.html)

Really hope only a passing hiccup..:O

[deltayankee]

Destination of first KLM cargo is Sharjah UAE, second is Bangkok.

[TRC]

I wonder if Willy Whatsit is enjoying 1st Class cabin service on the BA airtest

[tcmel]

I wonder if Willy Whatsit is enjoying 1st Class cabin service on the BA airtest

How bout sushi? Volcano roll??
Sorry, couldn't resist.

[FinalVectors]

Hi!

All of Norway will probably be open in a couple of hours time.(Westcoast and mid/north already open)
SAS have scheduled some flights from US to Oslo, arriving in morning.
IAD, EWR allready scheduled and probably aircrafts at ORD will come too.

Guess also more intercontinental flights bound for i.e Stockholm, Copenhagen probably will use Oslo as alternate. Anyone know something abouth this?

Looks good for a whole day of full ops in Norway tomorrow, with closure again next day probably.

Reagrds
Final Vectors
Oslo APP

[ChalfontFlyer]

News conference outside 10 Downing St has just finished.

Lord Adonis stated that no flights will be made in next 24 hours in UK airspace (other than the test flights).

Lord Mandelson also spoke & stated that Gordon Brown will be talking to his opposite number in Spain tonight with a plan to set-up an "air-bridge" via Madrid Airport to help facilitate bringing back stranded passengers, then transfer from there back to UK by train, coach or ferry.

[keepitflying]

Evening all,

If this query/question has already been banded around, I apologise. Not going to read 60 odd pages of threads :)

With the volcanic ash, we all know the ins and outs of what it does to the engines. What i'm also concerned about is, what effect this ash has on us flight crews? What happens to this ash when it passes through the compressor, ingested into the packs, then thrown into the flight deck and cabin? We all know how sensitive these pack systems are to contamination, and with toxic fumes being such a hot topic!!!!!!!

Just a question

Keep safe.

[Buckster]

did press conference say 50% of flights in Europe tomorrow or 50% of airspace ? 2 different things

[Le Fromage Noir]

BAW9156 passed overhead (Brecon Beacons) about half an hour ago at approx 25,000ft requesting 30,000ft.

No contrails, just a gentle rumble that has been missed over the last few days!!

[763 jock]

Where will this all end? Aircraft operators have effectively been banned from flying in UK airspace by a combination of NATS, the Met Office (BBQ summer fiasco last year) and presumably the DfT.

It's very easy to play the safety card, but will NATS be stopping operators getting airborne that are flying into other parts of the world that are subject to volcanic activity? You can't fly to Barbados because you'll be flying close to Montserrat, Sicily is banned as well. No flights from the UK to Indonesia, just in case. After all, you can never be too safe. If this continues, they will be closing airports because the crosswind is forecast to get breezy or a CB is nearby.

Somebody, somewhere, hit the big red panic button. We went from a minor news story in northern Scotland to complete lock-down of London within a couple of hours. The problem they have now, is how to get things back to normal without losing face. And public confidence.

[dougie247]

50% of airspace..

[AEST]

All the ANSP's went for the safest possible cause of action based on the information that they had, which is the whole point of of the ANSP, to provide the safest possible air traffic service they can. It is then up to the regulators, CAA, ICAO, etc and the various governments to decide when it is safe to fly.

The safest option is always to not allow anyone to fly :ugh:

One might wonder if zee Govt is in a better position to make that decision than the Companies, the pilots and the PAX.

[430tststs]

Spain's secretary of state for EU affairs said on Sunday it was possible that 50% of flights in Europe could operate on Monday.

"The forecast is that there will be half of flights possibly operating tomorrow. It will be difficult; that's why we have to coordinate," Diego Lopez Garrido, whose country holds the European Union presidency, told reporters after a meeting at European aviation control agency Eurocontrol.

[ElyFlyer]

I stand corrected BBC have reported it as 50% of airspace and not 50% of flights as Sky News did.

[mercurydancer]

Digitalis' post pointed out two very sensible points of view which appear to be at the poles of opinion. It is not possible to fly with no risk, but from what I can see there are many factors which influence the decision to fly again and there is not much in the way of the degree of risk attributed to each factor.

I cannot ascribe any degree of importance to the risk, corporate and political factors as this situation is unprecedented but the eventual situation is going to be a compromise between these factors. There may be others too.

1. Short term risk of an aircraft crashing. Probably one which flew into a heavy ash plume and flamed out.
2. Medium term damage leading to an aircraft accident. Possibly ash into engines and airframes degrading the performance of the aircraft.
3. Long term unserviceability of aircraft due to ash damage which require airframe replacement earlier than anticipated by business models.
4. Passenger confidence in the short term, possibly delineated by the ones wanting to desperately get home no matter what and those who will not get on an aircraft under any circumstances in the prevailing conditions.
5. Medium term passenger confidence. If a major fatality accident occurs which is attributable to ash then confidence will decline suddenly. It may also be affected by a near miss like Capt Moody's flight.
6. Financial pressures leading to a short term degradation of flight safety. WW may decide to get on an aircraft which may take off and land safely but this may not reflect operational conditions. There is no way on God's green earth that if the aircraft test flown so far had significant damage that this would be made known in the short term.
7. Political pressures in the short term may lead to degradation of flight safety. Especially in the UK with an election looming, it may be expedient to get stranded passengers home at some degree of risk.
8. Medium term financial pressures possibly a combination of the volcanic issues, plus fuel cost, plus banking problems, plus financial confidence in an airline may lead to risk taking.
9. The potential of the ash to cause damage is largely unquantified. It may be sharp and glassy but may have different characteristics to the other volcanic eruptions, but the analysis is going to take much longer than the allowances of the pressures listed above my give.

If the volcano continues to erupt at the current rate for a prolonged period (measured in weeks?) or there is a major eruption of another Icelandic volcano then all of the above will be exacerbated.

Let the train take the strain is my personal view.

[430tststs]

klm877 left

[Buckster]

Elyflyer - just re-listened to the press conference and I think they did say hoping for 50% of flights

[Dash-7 lover]

I see all these test flights are being done in daylight? Is there any merit in taking aircraft up at night? Would the effects be more apparent (st elmos fire etc etc)?

[tcmel]

KLM877 left Schiphol for Bangkok

[garp]

Despite the chaos and havoc it is causing it remains a thing of unreal beauty.

http://img594.imageshack.us/img594/8261/ejafjalla16apr2010mfull.jpg


http://img594.imageshack.us/img594/3872/ejafjalla18apr2010mfull.jpg

More: SwissEduc: Stromboli Online - Volcanic and glacial landforms of Iceland (http://www.swisseduc.ch/stromboli/perm/iceland/eyafallajokull_20100416-en.html?id=14)

[Sunfish]

At the risk of squandering what little credibility I have by posting on this thread, I need to explain something to some of you....

The fact that someone can make a "Test flight" and return the aircraft in one piece after exposure to some level of volcanic ash proves absolutely nothing. Detailed examination of the hot section of the engine is required, probably right down to the microscopic level and including sectioning of first stage turbine blades and nozzle guide vanes to check the cooling passages for contamination.

I'm not sure what turbine blade life is these days, but it must be of the order of at least 6000 hours plus, and probably well over 10,000 engine hours. If volcanic ash contamination compromises the figures for blade life in the slightest then airlines cannot fly because they are buying themselves a simply massive maintenance cost increase in the future. Furthermore, there would not be enough blade and vane manufacturing capacity available to satisfy demand.

To put it another way, I can take the air filter off my car and still run it up and down the road today and nothing will happen, however I would be wrong to conclude from that experiment that the provision of air filters by the car manufacturer was unnecessary overkill designed merely to boost profits.

To put it another way, If the engines will get their lives shortened by dust contamination, then the aircraft cannot fly, at least not at todays ticket prices anyway.

Having experienced the disruption caused by Fog at Heathrow for a few days years ago, I have a rough idea of the scale of disruption this event is causing. My Son is in Spain at the moment and I have just had to explain to him that there is no way he is getting to England until this clears up, as I imagine that train/bus/ferry systems are overloaded and will remain so. I've also had to explain that if this continues his plans for summer employment in holiday related industry are similarly moot.

..As for those conspiracy theorists and critics of NATS, especially those wondering why there is no "Plan B" to get them to their holiday destinations, I just shake my head in bemusement.

I think that if this continues for another week, even if a few flights are possible, there is going to be a need to ration available seats to essential travel only, and prioritise it to first return stranded people to their homes. I also suspect that some form of Government welfare support is going to be needed for the stranded because I don't think travel insurance covers it (force majeur?) and people must be fast running out of money and credit.

God knows what this will do to the tourism industry around the world, let alone the airlines.

[Scott Crossfield]

Is there a possibility that once airspace has reopened airlines will fly extra flights to clear the back-log .... or are the main airports already operating at 'slot' capacity ?

[ElyFlyer]

Thanks Buckster.

There has certainly been a shift in attitude amongst the powers that be in Europe over the past few hours. The pressure put on them by airlines to allow flights to commence again has obviously had an affect on the recent announcement that 50% of flights might take place tomorrow.

Sadly the UK Government seem to think there is no chance of flights in the UK for at least 24 hours:ugh:

[BillieBob]

Time to let NATS firmly off the hook. Both Adonis and Mandelson have now admitted that it is Eurocontrol/EC that is calling the shots.

[sky9]

How much of this industry shutdown is based on science and how much on "beyond my paygrade"?

In the past Mr Etna has erupted and UA1 was closed while UB23 remained open.

In the Middle East aircraft fly in airspace where temperature inversions trap sand in the air with fairly high concentrations sufficient for the 1-11 that I flew over 30 years ago to show sand erosion on the fan blades. We are surely not intending to fly through the main area of contamination so what exactly is the difference of flying in Europe in current conditions and flying day in and day out in the Middle East?

I recognise that it might have long term implications for shutdown rates but is the industry going to be brought to its knees for the sake of that?

Possibly if we flew with tabards on it will satisfy the Insurance industry.:rolleyes:

[markkal]

Where is the dust cloud ?? Cannot see it...

The sky over my head is deep blue and the stars are night are bright...No reddish haze whatsoever.

certainly its up here well diluted at least at my latitude.

Last summer went to an airshow in Tripoli Libya with a Sukhoi 29 and 2 Extra 300's.

The whole week we had light thermal winds carrying...Sand. Not sand storms, but light winds depositing small amounts of sand over time everywhere...

No air filters fitted on Sukhois or Extra's. Nothing we could do about that but cover the air intakes in between flights and rinse the canopies taking care not to scratch them.

These conditions are encountered so often in North Africa and Gulf states, how come we don't hear anything about that more often ???

Anyone involved in maintenance in such an environment could say something ?

Back home, we gave a nice cleaning; Sand found its way in in every corner down to the fuel filters... We used water and shampoo for the exposed surfaces, gasoline and compressed air for engine bays, undercarriages and hinges.
A few ounces of Libyan sand left a brownish streak on the ground once the water and fuel had evaporated....

Lucky the piston engines we use have big bores (1 liter and more each), and big valves, but it does no good to them.

In Triopli I saw a few SF 260's Marchetti's piston singles flying every day, they use the same type Lycoming engine than the Extra 300's. I hope they are fitted with air filters, but what about the jets and helicopters turbines ?

[Dash-7 lover]

Sky 9 - I understood that sand and volcanic dust are totally different in structure.

[budgetbudgie]

KLM doing ( only) cargo flights for now.
3 to leave today during daylight hours

[markkal]

Definitely Dash ! But the abrasive grinding effect is the same, or is it ???

[feedback]

@ Scott C:

Depends where you are. Heathrow's at capacity, at least for preferred schedule times - but CAA could decide to open up to night landings in these "exceptional circumstances"?

But are there trained staff to deal with Customs and Border control? Or would they have to wait to queue in the morning to be let into the country?

If your repatriated holidaymakers don't mind being landed at Goole, only the latter consideration applies.

[INKJET]

Spot on could not have put it better myself!!

[Scott Crossfield]

Thanks for the reply.

I would have thought that the airports and airlines would work every hour to get things back to normal.

I had my flight with Emirates from Manchester to Beijing cancelled last Thursday and hope to go this Thursday. However,at £458 return l do wonder if paying an additional charge into a fund to help out stranded passengers in events like these would be a good idea....£10 extra and l would still have bought the ticket.

We all want something for nothing nowadays....flying is an expensive business

[MPN11]

At severe risk of my Forum access, could the Mods consider removing some of the "Spotters' Forum" stuff?

The fact that a certain aircraft is over Brecon, or all the other 'radar spotter' inpts, isn't exactly taking the debate forward. Or helping those hoping to see operations resume.

I know you're trying to cope with a mountain of work, but it's getting impossible to sift the wheat from the chaff here.

Apologies in advance if that's inappropriate.

[sprocky_ger]

FRA looks pretty busy. At least 5 Condor aircraft have left in a few minutes.

[MPN11]

FRA looks pretty busy. At least 5 Condor aircraft have left in a few minutes.

My point exactly. :ugh:

What? Where? Who?
Do these 5 ac solve the problems of tens of thousands of pax?
Or all the airlines that are seeing money pouring down the drains?

There's flying in my garden - it's a seagull. :(

[HS125]

@ MPN 11

I see your point, but, at the end of the day it's helpful for those of us who are trying to report what is going on to mitigate the whole issue.

I fall between several stools here, I manage a few aircraft, fly, budget, pay the bills and coordinate other aspects besides.

Im not having a pop, I'm just pointing out that what is chaff to one person is wheat to another.

I agree that dredging up things that went on almost 30 years ago and that are highly unlikely now, are less then helpful, but whatever the scientific basis, the fact that test flights are taking place to help is a relevant point, and information about which flights are routinely able to operate to and from where is also salient for all of us.

Best Regards

Jeff

[Proplinerman]

Hi. I only normally post on the historic aviation forum, but this ash cloud thing is such a big issue that I've got questions that can only-I think-be answered here. At the outset, I should also say that I am not a pilot or an engineer, merely a long time propliner enthusiast.

I know, of course, that turborprops are merely jet engines attached to propellors, but could it be said that they are somewhat less vulnerable to damage from the ash cloud? If so-and someone shoot me down for my technical ignorance if necessary-could Europe's fleet of such aircraft undertake some flights, or is the risk of damage to the engines/risk to the aircraft and passengers simply too high?

I only suggest this because the situation does seem to be getting somewhat desperate. I await your guidance with interest.

Otherwise, given the situation and the nice weather we've had in the UK in recent days, presumably the lack of any commercial flights is nirvana for private flyers in piston-engined light aircraft? And on that tack, could air taxi piston-engined aircraft do a little ferrying about of the privileged few who could afford to hire them at this time?

Apologies too if these questions have already been raised, but this thread is so massive, I've just not had time to read any but a tiny no of the posts in it.

[ChalfontFlyer]

Jim French of FlyBe has just been interviewed on BBCNews 24. Interestingly he wants Europe & in particualr the CAA to come into line with the FAA rules regarding flying in areas of volcanic ash clouds which he claimed would allow an immediate restart.

[430tststs]

Offcourse with respect and same risk because i like it here, and no meaning to offend you
sorry there are some people exited about the few in industry who try move there ass of landingstrips and reports on that to follow also the solutions and speculations.

Dont tell me that this post from you contributes to solve dust matters?:
Jersey Airport has been very busy with repairs on the taxiways and rw.


I think it was yours :ok:

Grtz

[galaxy flyer]

What are the FAA rules and how would they allow for an immediate restart of European aviation?

GF

[1985]

The safest option is always to not allow anyone to fly :ugh:

One might wonder if zee Govt is in a better position to make that decision than the Companies, the pilots and the PAX.
Do you honestly think that NATS wants no aircraft flying? They are in the same position as the airlines, no flights = no money.
And yes i think the govt is in a better position to decide than all of the above and i would also include NATS. Thats what the govt is there for. To make those hard decisions, thats the point of them. The airlines would have continued flying, the pilots would have been under massive pressure to fly and with the greatest respect to the PAX most of them seem to think i stand in front of a parking aircraft waving two table tennis bats so i'll not listen to them. The reason that NATS took the course of action that they did is because the CAA and DofT wouldn't.

[Scott Crossfield]

Exactly what level of 'ash' is permitted to allow flights to restart ?



(I think that maybe there isn't one :rolleyes: )

[tcmel]

Exactly what level of 'ash' is permitted to allow flights to restart ?
Eurocontrol press release at 9p CET.
They are promising answers.

[ChalfontFlyer]

Unfortunately Jim French didn't go into anymore detail (it was only a 2 minute interview) but hopefully someone on here will know about the FAA rules? (guidelines).

[ManofMan]

More teasers coming from Eurocontrol's tweeted messages.. Regarding "negotiations"... Hopefully there will be some real news this time. Press release coming soon

Better news i hear, new maps anyone ??

[slatterri]

Sorry about that "Over Brecon" bit. In normal circumstances you would obviously have a point and normally I would not bother reporting an aircraft making Brecon, although apparently being the only commercial aircraft in UK airspace does give it celebrity.

What I should perhaps have said, rather than taking the short cut, is that it is interesting that BA seem now to be mounting positive steps towards understanding more clearly what we are up against and that the only aircraft currently visible in UK airspace does seems to be said BA test flight, which happens to be flying cautiously over Brecon.

This looks like a positive move from BA and I hope it sheds some light.

Rgds

[bravolima553]

Hi all,

personally I´m more on the restrictive side. Nobody knows exactly how to compute this "cloud* and how to deal with different concentrations in it. In the last 50 years we never had such a occurence over Central Europe.
I'm wondering, beside the reports of the finn F18´s, have there been any reports or remarks from flight crews around, regarding volcano activities over Europe in the last few day? Do some crew encouter subtle indications of ash in the air, especially in the night before grounding?

thanks

Bernhard (LSZH)

[Mountee]

Why no media coverage of the Katla seismographs going crazy? Is it significant?

Órói á stöðvum við Eyjafjallajökul (http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Katla2009/stodvaplott.html)
:confused:

[MPN11]

Apologies to all I may have offended - it's just getting very difficult to track what's happening. A little bit of "Less is More" might help - focus on where your input actually gets anyone.

I think we need substantial information from "The Authorities" rather than innumerable personal views [however valid many of them may be].

[bonus78]

BA 747 on its way back into cardiff, now over western Ireland

[Scott Crossfield]

Totally agree. What is needed is data and those who govern the airspace to justify their decisions based on that data. Surely that is logical ?

[MPN11]

BA 747 on its way back into cardiff, now over western Irelandthe BA test plane has now landed in CWL and i imagine undergoing checks.

Thank you for sharing that information.
BTW, they are called aircraft, not planes.

[TRC]

"......but could it be said that they are somewhat less vulnerable to damage from the ash cloud"

All gas turbines are vulnerable to the minerals in this cloud. I suppose the mass airflow through a turboprop is somewhat less than through a turbofan. So the effects may be reduced per hour flown compared to a fan.

I await admonishment with trepidation.

[judge11]

Aha - a 'hard decision'. Are you quite sure that shouldn't be 'tough'?

1985 - you are Gordon Brown.

Meetings will now be convened all over Europe amongst aviation authorities to decide the best way of agreeing a party line to allow a relaxation of restrictions without openly admitting the massive over-reaction in the first place.

[Admiral346]

What is needed is data and those who govern the airspace to justify their decisions based on that data. Surely that is logical ?

I find it a bit funny to outfit testplanes with probes to fly into the cloud (as is being done at slowmo speed in Germany) to measure a particle concentration to then calculate or deduct a risk percentage for engines to fail/pitots to clog while aircraft have already flown through it and have been assessed. It is like proving the obvious.

Nic

[feedback]

@ Admiral 346:

It could be rather helpful to know what the aircraft has survived, yes? For the future, like?

[430tststs]

I tryed to find out what mr Hartman ment with his statement about NASA.

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2010/0418/Should-planes-fly-in-Iceland-volcano-ash-Be-careful-study-says.

2 PAGES

Between the text are statements from nasa and in contradiction what Nasa could say about the nowday situation to my opinion.

Most interesting question of the moment is how much dust is within the bandwith of responsible flight operation.

I think not a easy answer to formulate, the maintenance is an issue and safety. so there should be 2 answers.
1.for meantenance in fact financial issue ask the company
2.safety i think is easy. actually there is no risk to my opinion.

The risk of not follow maintenance when the equipment (aircraft) is used in dust Thats the risk for this moment. And what different maintenance and inspection !!

Its a simple point of vieuw, many times for difficult things can be found easy solutions.
Separate the fleat used in dusty conditions and not dusty conditions and separate the maintenance programm.
WILL IT SECURE THE SAFETY OF PEOPLE FLYING IS THE QUESTION

is that basicly a solution?

[helimutt]

the BA test AIRCRAFT has now landed in CWL and i imagine undergoing checks

Checking the time, is this the same aircraft which hasn't yet landed at Cardiff? :hmm:

[lomapaseo]

Sunfish

At the risk of squandering what little credibility I have by posting on this thread, I need to explain something to some of you....

The fact that someone can make a "Test flight" and return the aircraft in one piece after exposure to some level of volcanic ash proves absolutely nothing. Detailed examination of the hot section of the engine is required, probably right down to the microscopic level and including sectioning of first stage turbine blades and nozzle guide vanes to check the cooling passages for contamination.

I'm not sure what turbine blade life is these days, but it must be of the order of at least 6000 hours plus, and probably well over 10,000 engine hours. If volcanic ash contamination compromises the figures for blade life in the slightest then airlines cannot fly because they are buying themselves a simply massive maintenance cost increase in the future. Furthermore, there would not be enough blade and vane manufacturing capacity available to satisfy demand.

To put it another way, I can take the air filter off my car and still run it up and down the road today and nothing will happen, however I would be wrong to conclude from that experiment that the provision of air filters by the car manufacturer was unnecessary overkill designed merely to boost profits.

To put it another way, If the engines will get their lives shortened by dust contamination, then the aircraft cannot fly, at least not at todays ticket prices anyway.


This is a long term business consideration in decision making and not a short term concern to salvaging your current customer base

To put it another way, the operators already make decisions like this on a real time basis everyday.

Perhaps we can revisit this months from now.

[baopsman]

It's approaching STU at FL150 inbound to EGFF.

[HighLow]

Safety is the number one priority for us all in the industry.

Of course, this unfolding drama is doing untold damage to our industry, however I am getting a bad feeling (especially listening to Euro Controls press conference and taking into account all these TEST flights by legacy airlines), these commercial operators could be attempting to persuade the powers that be to relax the restrictions already in place, just for the sake of reducing the rate of cash burn, thus having a detrimental effect on safety.

There is plenty of evidence published that states volcanic ash does untold damage to a turbine engine, and can lead to multiple engine failures. KLM Lufthansa and British Airways are not exactly independent entities.

I agree in the authorities decision to ground aircraft, especially considering the severe risk associated with volcano ash. I just hope their resolve continues and will not allow the "BIG BOYS" in the airline industry to pull sway on what effects ALL aircraft sharing the same airspace.


I hope someone can ease my concerns, your comments welcome.


High Low

[MPN11]

I think MPN11 is a bit irritable today.

Too bloody right - I'm supposed to be flying to the USA on Tuesday! :ugh:

But that's not the point - it's getting incredibly difficult to absorb substantial info with the innumerable posts on what I might call 'fringe issues'.

This is a BIGGIE. Tens of thousands of crew and pax are screwed, jobs are on the line [or possibly over the line], commerce is being damaged ... and frankly the individual movement of a single aircraft, waypoint by waypoint, doesn't seem to help develop an intellectual perception of where we are.

The Eurocontrol statement possibly will.

[Air.Farce.1]

The bottom line is ..........It's not safe to fly through volcanic ash, and no one can predict with any confidence where it is likely to be present at any given time.
Accept it and deal with it, if it hurts your pocket.. tough :=

[TRC]

Too bloody right.....
........- it's getting incredibly difficult to absorb substantial info with the innumerable posts on what I might call 'fringe issues'.

This is a BIGGIE.

I reccommend a lie down in a darkened room with a cold flannel on your brow.

[helimutt]

so bbc LIVE news reporting it 12 miles out, cameras waiting to watch it land and taxi in, so hana994, i'm guessing you don't really work at Cardiff?

Just goes to prove how much crap some people talk on here!:E

[TSR2]

According to a weather forecast on TV this afternoon, there is a STORM brewing in the North Atlantic which should bring strong south westerly winds west of Ireland by Wednesday pm. It is anticipated that the ash clouds could be blown well north of European airspace.

I know I know they have been known to be wrong but we can only hope.

[WeatherJinx]

Just spotted Wee Wille and co on their confidence-building/lobbying/PR/'test'/ whatever jaunt from LHR to CWL:

http://homepage.mac.com/blogbase/Sites/pichost/ba-test-flight-LHR-CWL.jpg

The a/c approaching the NW tip of France are a trio of Condor B76s out of FRA on their way to the Caribbean. VA layer is on in this pic.

[Roobarb]

This is a manageable risk.

Just like all the other manageable risks I take everyday.

Now can I get back in my aeroplane.

http://www.reallyfabcards.com/media/product_images_S/M&G_195780_S.jpg

I'll take on the competition anyday, it's my management I can't beat

[ManofMan]

According to a weather forecast on TV this afternoon, there is a STORM brewing in the North Atlantic which should bring strong south westerly winds west of Ireland by Wednesday pm. It is anticipated that the ash clouds could be blown well north of European airspace

My guess is that it will be sorted by then, some new maps and some new rules should see things getting back into the air for most before the end of tomorrow. :ok::ok:

[blue up]

20:41 GMT. Something sailed past my house on short finals to 12 at Cardiff. Too dark to make it out clearly, but maybe not a 747. Either 777 or 737, judging by the shape of it. Hard to tell the size since it is dark and everything seems to appear smaller in daylight, according to my wife.





10,000 hours of 757 and 767, before you ask

[Sunfish]

Lompaseo:

Commenting on shortening the lives of turbine blades.

This is a long term business consideration in decision making and not a short term concern to salvaging your current customer base

To put it another way, the operators already make decisions like this on a real time basis everyday.

Perhaps we can revisit this months from now.

It's not a "long term issue" at all. If blade life is severely compromised, for example the DC* blades went from 1000 hours to 100 hours, you are going to get 4000++ hot section overhauls all arriving at once instead of over a period of years.

There is simply not the manufacturing capacity in the world to make the blades and vanes, let alone the maintenance capacity, if a significant chunk of the worlds aircraft population gets their engines compromised. We carry the minimum of spares these days. There is no magic warehouse full of spare engines, let alone sets of blades and vanes.

You can produce a very short term fix today if you run your engines in dirty air, but you are creating a monumental problem in the following months and years if they are damaged...

[captplaystation]

Very watery orange/grey in Spain, does tend to beg the question why Barcelona and the Ryanair version up the road were closed all day . . . .

[BDiONU]

will NATS be stopping operators getting airborne that are flying into other parts of the world that are subject to volcanic activity?
No, NATS is only the ANSP for the UK, not anywhere else in Europe never mind the rest of the world.

BD

[Local Variation]

Sunfish:

Take fully on board your comments, however it is probable now that operators are entering squeeky bum time and need to get some revenues in fast to balance some already poor looking books.

For those in that situation, surely that weighs more heavily on their minds compared to the cost of fan blades.

Just the way it is and this is now a real battle of commercial verses safety.

[timmcat]

NATS now extended the restriction to 1900 Monday.

[80/-]

Nats website looks to have been updated with a release at 21:00

Statement on Icelandic volcanic eruption: Sunday April 18, 2100

Based on the latest information from the Met Office, NATS advises that the current restrictions across UK controlled airspace due to the volcanic ash cloud will remain in place until at least 1900 (local time) on Monday 19 April.
So empty skies in the UK for another day then...