Ash clouds threaten air traffic

[488shell]

The volcanic ash cloud from Iceland is moving around and changing shape. Based on the latest information from the Met Office, NATS advises that the restrictions currently in place across UK controlled airspace will remain in place until at least 0700 (UK time) tomorrow, Sunday 18 April.
There may be some airspace available within Scotland, Northern Ireland and England north of Leeds up till 1900 (UK time) today, which may enable some domestic flights to operate under individual coordination with ATC. We will be coordinating this closely with airlines and airports. We would repeat, it is most unlikely that many flights will operate today and anyone hoping to travel should contact their airline before travelling to the airport. After 1900 (UK time) today, Met Office forecasts show the ash cloud progressively covering the whole of the UK.
We will continue to monitor Met Office information and review our arrangements in line with that. We will advise further arrangements at approximately 2100 (UK time), today.

[macker]

@RoyHudd - idiot

@Anthony GA - spot on

[a400]

celandic volcano eruption

Last updated: 2000 on Saturday, 17 April 2010



The Eyjafjallajökull volcano is still erupting, and possibly intensifying, with the ash plume rising to 30,000 feet. Evidence of ash dust over the UK is being detected by Met Office observations and there are reports of dust reaching the ground.

The Met Office commissioned NERC research flight flew over the North Sea on Friday afternoon and detected 3 distinct layers of ash, from fine particles at low levels to large particles around 8,000 feet.

All these observations are consistent with our forecast plumes for where the ash cloud would spread and how it would mix through the atmosphere.

The Met Office is working closely with the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) and National Air Traffic Services (NATS), and because of the worsening volcanic activity UK airspace has now been closed until 1am Sunday. We continue to look for weather windows that will allow air space restrictions to be lifted.

We are also liaising with Health Protection Scotland and the Health Protection Agency and dust collected at Lerwick and Aberdeen has been analysed by Scottish Environment Protection Agency. Preliminary analysis has shown that the properties of the particles appear to be consistent with the properties of volcanic ash, but further more detailed analysis is being undertaken.

Decisions on flights and airline movement is controlled by NATS. The Met Office is unable to advise of any details of any flights. However, many airlines are providing information on their websites.

We will continue to produce forecasts of the ash cloud and will assess the impact over the weekend in consultations with CAA and NATS.

[WojtekSz]

Roy
Poland is curently in the process of burying 96 people that has been flown by the pilot who has not shown signs of 'cowardice' and landed where/when it has been deemed unsafe (unsuitable wx).

[mocoman]

It's called predictive analysis.

If the past observations show that there have been peaks in volcanic output every 8 hours since the eruption started then that frequency will be used to forecast future events.

:ok:

[feedback]

@mocoman:

Predictive analasyis on a volcano? No-one can do volcano forecasting.

As I said, that particular graphic is pretty but prediction-free.

[mocoman]

@feedback

I was only indicating the technique that may have been used; not commenting upon its' validity.

I'm with you; one should never try to second-guess Nature.

:)

[Low Flier]

why is the flight at FL410 when all the ash is below?

For the same reason that a very light ZFW 738, with a very low fuel load, was zoom climbed through the low level stuff, skirting along the upwind edge of the promulgated cloud, avoiding going anywhere near the tall stuff.

Smoke and mirrors, without smoke or mirrors. Just showbiz.

Made for the media. Made to mislead. Made to deceive.

[pappabagge]

An anagram of "Iceland volcano" is "cancel void loan". Well, well.

[rp122]

10 miles West of LHR.
17th April 2010

Went outside this evening at at maybe 1915 and 2115 you could smell the ash at ground level.

In between and after that, no smell.

Clear sky, no funny sunset, and no effects on the visibility of the setting Moon.

But definately a smell of ash on two occasions this evening.

Second occasion, after sunset, was much stronger.
Probably a 'dump' of colder air as the thermals switched off.

Which makes me wonder - does the lower level ash fall out of the sky after sunset?

Thinks... no thermals to keep it up, condensation of water due to much lower temperature = fallout.

"but we had an ash cloud yesterday, and it lasted overnight"

Yes, but was it held up by an inversion layer?

Can we work around the ash cloud problem by only flying at night?

Question - would it be much safer to only fly at night?

I think it's time to send a test plane up overnight to test the theory.

At present we're pretty ignorant about the situation.
Let's learn.

[ILS27LEFT]

If you are in London, look outside the window right now: the moon is red :eek:

[Profit Max]

I think you will find that the ash clouds that have done the damage in the past to eg. BA009 and the NASA aeroplane were in visible ash cloud, not invisible ash cloud. Emperor and new clothes comes to mind.Incorrect. The cloud the NASA plane flew through was entirely unnoticeable, 200 miles North of the predicted ash cloud, and only picked up because they were a atmospheric research plane that had sensitive equipment onboard. They also only flew through the ash for 5 or 10 minutes. Had this been a normal flight, nobody would have realised. Nevertheless, the engines were damaged significantly, and their remaining time was estimated to be 100 hours instead of 1000 hours.

Again, this was an encounter with an extremely thin concentration of ash for a very short period. Continued operation in these conditions would have probably resulted in more sever damage.

(Source: NASA volcanic ash incident report)

[ihg]

For the same reason that a very light ZFW 738, ....skirting along the upwind edge of the promulgated cloud, avoiding going anywhere near the tall stuff.
Smoke and mirrors, without smoke or mirrors. Just showbiz.
Made for the media. Made to mislead. Made to deceive.

...referring to Mr. Hartmans statements before the flight, i guess you are right on spot :uhoh:

If this shall be accounted as some valid investigation of the risk, then the flight profile should have been defined by some of the met guys knowing the current distribution of the ash cloud as well as the critical locations...and not be defined by some cash flow driven mind set of an airline CEO.

Regards, ihg

P.S.: I couldnt find any alleged NASA 'investigator' statements denying any risk, that Mr. Hartman claimed would exist.....did anyone else?

[rp122]

Yes, but that post is 30mins prior to Moonset. 7.5 deg above horizon.

'Normal' pollution would make the Moon red at that altitude as you are looking NW across London and most of the UK pollution.

The question still stands - does the lower level ash fall out after dark, allowing flying at night to a level below the 'ashbase'?

[cwatters]

Looked red to me at around 9pm. I'm in rural central england.

[GSLOC]

Look at this! This Russian fleet is flying like nothing has happened. Do they have more info on concentration and the effects on a/c?
Might check other sites, I bet they are operating as usually. Difference - they have military ATC, not civilians.


They are flying till the first accident. Russians always learn on their own mistakes.

They are knowingly and intentionally fly commercial aircrafts into dangerous regions. This is prohibited by every international aviation convention.

AirChina has terminated it's flights from China to Moscow (it is unsafe around Moscow). Emirates and some other Asian airlines also terminated flights to Moscow. Yet Aeroflot (and other Russian carriers) flies these routes as if nothing had happened. This gives you an idea how reckless Russians are.

No world-class airline puts it's passenger safety behind commercial interests. Russian airlines do that and noone seems to notice.

[Up up and away]

Went outside this evening at at maybe 1915 and 2115 you could smell the ash at ground level.

Nice day for a BBQ today.......:}

[BreezyDC]

Someone asked about the impact of the ash cloud on medevacs from the Afghan theatre, which are apparently going direct to ADW. NY Times reports today:

"The shutdown has also affected American military operations. Military supplies for operations in Afghanistan have been disrupted, and a spokeswoman for the Pentagon said that all medical evacuation flights from Iraq and Afghanistan to Germany, where most injured soldiers are typically treated, were being diverted directly to Andrews Air Force Base in Maryland."

[Snoopy]

Niki Lauda: „Man könnte schon lange wieder fliegen“ - Fliegen - FOCUS Online (http://www.focus.de/reisen/fliegen/niki-lauda-man-koennte-schon-lange-wieder-fliegen_aid_499660.html#comment)

Niki Lauda says that it's all safe now, so I guess that wraps it up....

(article in German I am afraid, but the crux is that he has spoken to his engine manufacturer and everything is fine. If Austrocontrol don't let him start flying tomorrow he will sue them...)

[kally]

Am I he only one to think that we have become so risk averse that we run the risk of shutting down a perfectly viable industry.

When did we last sample the atmosphere before we launched a really hi tech Dornier 228 to sample the upper atmosphere?

Have the legal team finally taken over the business?

rgds Kally

[mathers_wales_uk]

Saturday KLM has got authorisation of the Inspectie voor Verkeer en Waterstaat to make a test flight in Dutch airspace. If the quality of the atmosphere is satisfactory to fly safe, KLM hopes to get passengers to their destination as soon as possible. This was announced this afternoon by president and CEO of KLM, Peter Hartman at a press conference. The test flight will be carried out at the beginning of the evening. Results are expected later in the evening. Peter Hartman will be on board as an observer.

KLM test flight passes off without problem
KLM Royal Dutch Airlines carried out a test flight this evening between about 19.45 and 21:00 hours CEST in Netherlands airspace using a Boeing 737-800. The flight was carried out to establish whether air quality in the atmosphere meets the requirements for safe flight. No problems were encountered during the flight.
The aircraft was transferred to a hangar on landing where it underwent a thorough inspection. The results have been reported to the Transport and Water Management Inspectorate. The Inspectorate will take the decision on whether flight operations are possible.
KLM President & CEO, Peter Hartman, said: "At first glance there is no reason to suspect that anything is amiss. We observed no irregularities either during the flight or during the initial inspection on the ground. If the results of the technical inspection confirm this impression, we are ready to start by returning seven of our aircraft to Amsterdam from Düsseldorf. We hope to receive permission as soon as possible after that to start up our operation and to transport our passengers to their destinations." KLM Executive Vice-President Operations, Ype de Haan, was also on board the flight with Peter Hartman as an observer.
The aircraft flew to 41,000 feet (altitude of approximately 13 kilometres), which is the maximum altitude for this type of aircraft. KLM expects to receive the final results of the technical inspection tomorrow morning.
Could this be the danger of a National Carrier placing pressure on ATC in the Netherlands? Surely NATS has final say on safety in the UK regardless of what one single test flight provides?

[mocoman]

...we have become so risk averse...Have the legal team finally taken over the business?

Yes; these points are undoubtedly part of the problem.

I applaud KLM for doing test flights but do not wish for airspace to be re-opened based solely upon research done by companies who have a direct financial interest in flights being resumed. That said; who is most qualified to judge whether the airspace is navigable in relative safety?

Can any members point to other agencies that are currently undertaking similar experiments?

[training wheels]

Some videos of the volcano erupting, taken a few days ago.

Zy4P51xmQF4

kuOytmbfGns

[Bealzebub]

Does anybody know what specialised test equipment the KLM 737 was equipped with? I heard rumour that the specialised Dornier 228 that flew over the Eastern UK on Friday was denied permission to enter the Amsterdam FIR.

[jcjeant]

Hi,

Does anybody know what specialised test equipment the KLM 737 was equipped with?Yes ...
The specialised test equipement was the two engines :)
That's the best equipement for test if the engines will cope with ash ? environnement.
I suppose the Pitot tubes and other standard measuring devices are also parts of the specialised equipment of this KLM boeing .......

[brak]

So what are they going to do? See if engines didn't break and plane hasn't crashed - and based on that declare flying safe? Where is the logic? A single successful flight does not say absolutely anything about general safety of flying in these conditions.

World aviation agencies spend countless hours certifying aircraft for simpler and better understood conditions such as flying above water or in winter etc, and only then give a "go" based on significant test data when appropriate measures are worked out. And here they want to let planes fly into known hazard based on 1 hour of flight time without any additional specialized equipment, knowledge or testing? I know they want to make money - but surely a single all-engine flameout event would cause them more issues and will ground them for even longer. Very very shortsighted.

[HarryMann]

Thinks... no thermals to keep it up, condensation of water due to much lower temperature = fallout.

Thermals won't be keeping ash up... they'll be stirring it up maybe in the lower few thousand feet.

1/3 air mass goes up in thermals when they're popping, the other 2/3 comes down half as fast as the 1/3 that goes up - roughly!

If all the air went up in thermals, we'd die :)

[jcjeant]

Hi,

World aviation agencies spend countless hours certifying aircraft for simpler and better understood conditions such as flying above water or in winter etc, and only then give a "go" based on significant test data when appropriate measures are worked out.So I can ask the question:
Why world aviation agencies not spended hours for conduct tests in a volcanic ashes environement ?
AFAIK it's a well know natural phenomena like ice or snow or rain or birds ...

[peck]

Does anyone heard of measurements of the Volcanic cloud in terms of milligrams per cubic meter (Dispersed ash in air)?.
Other possibility is to monitor precipitated particles al ground level. May be some Air Quality agency is looking at this ?

These are important figures, because at the end the mass load in the turbine is a key factor for possible negative effects.

Regards,
Peck

[EMIT]

As you can read in the post higher up on this page, KLM's test flight was conducted in cooperation with IVW, the Dutch CAA,

The flight is mentioned on the official web page of IVW as being conducted on request of the European Union. More test flights in other countries are to be conducted.

As far as test equipment is concerned, of course no special equipment is added to the outside of the machine. How about borescoping the engines after the flight to look for the slightest traces of ash EFFECTS. You may have found the pictures of the Finnish Air Force F-18 engines earlier on in this forum. The civilian test flight are there to establish whether any signs of ash can be found after a flight in a thorough technical inspection, not just from the observations of mr. Hartman or mr. De Haan.

The risk is not in this one short flight, but flights such as this one may indicate whether there will be any long term risk in starting up full scale operations.

If you are concerned about money, even if both engines would now need a massive overhaul, that is money well spent to prove that losing 5 to 10 million per day per company by not-flying is justified.

[jetfresh]

I notice that one of the contaminated plumes has very nearly made a westward track towards Newfoundland, after passing over Norway, Sweden, Denmark, the Netherlands and Southern England.
When it reaches the State of Maine or Nova Scotia, is anybody going to believe that no one can fly because of Volcanic Ash.
Get real, the Moody 747 flew through the erupting plume of the erupting volcano. The ppm density was at its highest and most destructive.
By the time it's dissipated and the ppm is very low, what is the problem.
Maybe its the Lawyers and engine manufacturers covering themselves.
For years now aircraft have been landing in desert regions with low RVR's caused by sand not moisture.
Aircraft also have in the past suffered no problems with the likes of Mt St Helens, Pinatubo, the Alaskan Peninsular and the many Volcanos in the Sea of Japan.
Start looking at what ppm density starts to cause the problems and do it fast.
It's no good sending up a Dornier, it has to be carried out on an Engine test rig by the manufacturers.
The sooner the better please, so that I can get off the ground and back home with my wife and dogs.
Jetfresh

[jcjeant]

Hi,

Engines certification:
http://www.easa.europa.eu/ws_prod/g/doc/Agency_Mesures/Certification_Spec/CS-E%20A2/CS-E_Amendment%202.pdf

Seem's they forget the volcanic ashes :)

[Earl]

You don't fly into this ash no matter what.
Yes its costing millions per day, so what.
When they say its safe to fly we take to the skies again.
But we don't unless they say its safe and no risk at all.
Airline management and loss revenues don't have any say so in this problem.
Not marketing selling tooth brushes or airline seats anymore.
Common sense applies here.
Sorry the marketing ones may lose some bonus here for loss of revenue.
Hope they finally figure out that safety is more important than there wallet.

[tea & bikkies]

Here is a interesting link to earthquake activity leading up to the eruption. Sorry if it has been posted before

DataMarket | Jarðskjálftar og eldgos í Eyjafjallajökli 2010 (http://datamarket.net/is/thjonusta/gagnagraejur/daemi/jardskjalftar_og_eldgos/)

[funster]

Restrictions now continuing until 19:00 Sunday according to BBC / CNN.

[jcjeant]

Hi,

The airline has paralysis in much of Europe is not just commercial flights. De nombreuses personnalités ont également dû modifier leurs projets. Many celebrities have also had to change their plans. Ainsi, plusieurs chefs d'Etats ne pourront sans doute pas assister aux obsèques du président polonais Lech Kaczynski , dimanche 18 avril à Cracovie, l'espace aérien du pays étant fermé. Thus, several heads of states could probably not attend the funeral of Polish President Lech Kaczynski , Sunday, April 18 in Krakow, the country's airspace is closed. Samedi matin, l'Elysée annonçait cependant le maintien du déplacement de Nicolas Sarkozy . Saturday morning, the Elysee Palace announced yet maintaining the displacement of Nicolas Sarkozy . Le premier ministre estonien, Andrus Ansip , le président du Parlement européen, Jerzy Buzek , ou le président slovaque, Ivan Gasparovic , devaient gagner la cité historique en automobile, alors que le président tchèque, Vaclav Klaus , comptait s'y rendre en train. The Estonian Prime Minister Andrus Ansip , President of the European Parliament, Jerzy Buzek , or the Slovak President, Ivan Gasparovic , had to win this historic city by car, while the Czech president, Vaclav Klaus , had to reach by train.Source:

Google Traduire (http://translate.google.be/translate?hl=fr&sl=fr&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.lemonde.fr%2Fplanete%2Farticle%2F2010%2F0 4%2F17%2Fle-nuage-de-cendres-perturbe-evenements-politiques-et-sportifs_1335158_3244.html)

From the french Govt:
Google Bericht (http://translate.google.be/translate?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.elysee.fr%2Fpresident%2Fles-actualites%2Fagenda%2F2010%2Fagenda-de-m-le-president-de-la-republique-du.8560.html&sl=fr&tl=en&hl=&ie=UTF-8)

So the french president must be on the road .. at this hour .. but it's no news of a departure by road or train from France of Sarkozy
If he go by plane ........ what we can conclude ? :)

[grimmrad]

"Roy
Poland is curently in the process of burying 96 people that has been flown by the pilot who has not shown signs of 'cowardice' and landed where/when it has been deemed unsafe (unsuitable wx)."

Well, I wouldn't really call it "landed"...

[barit1]

peck:

Does anyone heard of measurements of the Volcanic cloud in terms of milligrams per cubic meter (Dispersed ash in air)?.
Other possibility is to monitor precipitated particles al ground level. May be some Air Quality agency is looking at this ?

These are important figures, because at the end the mass load in the turbine is a key factor for possible negative effects.


A gold star for peck's first post. The problem is that we don't know the quantitative ash density that engines can absorb, and precious little about the ash density now in the air. If we had these numbers, then a fair risk assessment could be made.

After all, bird ingestion tests are well defined (numbers and size) for engine certification, as are water ingestion etc. tests. But we have empirical evidence that engines are no match for a couple of Canadian geese.

Give us some numbers for a design standard, and someone will certify an ash-proof engine.

[rubik101]

This volcano last erupted in 1821 and it spewed ash for TWO years. So if you are stuck somewhere and waiting expectantly for a resumption of flights in the not too distant future, think again. If the ash density is such that it is unsafe to fly today, it can only become less safe as the ash density continues to build as more and more debris is thrown into the skies over Europe and beyond.
Happy landings and stay safe.

[CokeZero]

Again safety is put after revenue!!!

I thought safety was the number one priority for all airlines? I am mistaken - they show their true colours and we are resorting to making money. Do you want to repeat Speedbird 9 from a few years ago then go right ahead. I and my crew will not be accepting any flight through Volcanic Ash!!!

[PaleBlueDot]

These test flies are just the beginning of the things that may be necessary to do. Even when they establish certain threshold of ash concentration, below which it is "not dangerous" to fly, that is not enough, nor does it mean very much. Below critical ash density can also cause damage over time. Two most important parameters are probably accumulation of the dust inside engines and other critical surfaces, and accumulation of the microscopic dust damage - and not simply local dust density. And to be able to predict them in advance, during the trajectory planning stage, it will be necessary to have some very sophisticated monitoring system. If this does not stop very soon, dust concentrations will become almost unpredictable, possibly abruptly changing depending on the place, time, altitude, moisture, history of the winds at various levels and so on. Detailed remote measurement and on board sensors may be the only way. I am not sure if remote monitoring system with necessary high resolution for measuring local densities at various levels even exists now. And even if it does, it will be cat and mouse game. Finding the current route with the smallest ratio of accumulated dust / cost of the trajectory. And constantly hoping that accumulated damage to the system has not become greater then its ability to withstand some unexpected stress that may be required. It's not going to be easy. And it is certainly going to be more expensive. So lets hope that it will stop very soon.

[Coireall]

Rubik, you have hit the nail on the head.
My reference:
Met Office: Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation/vaac/vaacuk.html)
The latest bullitin from the Volcanic Ask Advisory Centre in London shows the observed cloud from Surface to FL200 to stretch from the eastern Atlantic to the Urals and from the tip of Scandanavia to the south of central Europe. If Civil aviation is not to stay grounded for the years that this volcano may continue to spew out its ash and particles, a "Command Judgement" will have to be made soon to get airborne again.
The best estimate of the plume height is FL280. Clearly the plume and its hazards must be avoided.
However, the density of the ash now spread over such a vast area is diminishing all the time. Moreover, there is now plenty of evidence that the ash is reaching the surface. However, the remarks section of the warning states: "ASH CONCENTRATIONS WITHIN INDICATED AREAS ARE UNKNOWN. NO SIGNIFICANT RISK ABOVE FL350".
We cannot stay grounded forever while ash is airborne. We need a much better risk analysis tool and than simply an ash cloud diagram containing a million square mile area which has to be avoided by all aircraft.

[Cubbie]

This autocratic shutting down of all airspace is way too much big brother, all started by MR Brown. It should be up to the operator, and ultimately the passenger to decide if the risks are worth taking. All dramatic references to a BA flight, or other unfortunate earlier flights which flew straight into the centre of an unchartered dense volcanic plume, do not apply today, We are all well aware of the risk of doing that, which is why we have extra vigilance on volcanic activity. But over the whole of Europe what is the particle density, its mostly parts per billion. The more spread out it gets the thinner it becomes, therefore less risk is reasonable to surmise. Are the Asians going to be shutting down their airspace when this blows far enough east? Over time this may cause damage and maintenance issues, so just reduce the TBO,- if you see a sign on Blackpool beach saying caution polluted waters, it doesn’t stop you from swimming if you want to- the risk is yours, if you prefer not to then don’t, hundreds of thousands of passengers are stranded around the globe what would they say-This eruption could last weeks, months, even years- how long will airspace be shutdown, with thousands of people sleeping rough at airports, how long before we start seeing flight crew layoffs, so airlines can reduce costs, something will have to give somewhere.

[paidworker]

As a result of aviation stoppage I am no longer a paid worker. However I wont fall victim to fear and greed by trying to justify my plane into the air until proper investigative work has been done given the experience of the likes of the Finnish air force and unknown long/ medium term effects. Theoretically there is so much that can go wrong its not funny and certainly not worth letting the health of the industry dictate , thats akin to saying its too expensive to replace asbestos in terms of human health. KLMs few orbits at altitude prove nothing since they are unable to verify if they are flying through anything dangerous and besides what is the difference between 30 minutes of exposure and 4 hours? The notion that in Ireland and the UK the density in PPM is decreasing would only be true if the volcano had stopped spewing ash into the atmosphere which it has not. As for Brown being responsible , get a grip the first closure was not in the UK.

[paulmoscow]

They are flying till the first accident. Russians always learn on their own mistakes.
Russia has over 30 active volcanoes, so it has enough scientists and experience to monitor current situation.

E.g., here is a couple of excerpts from the latest Kamchatka advisory:

KLYUCHEVSKOY VOLCANO; 56° 03'N, 160° 39'E; Elevation 4,750 m
AVIATION COLOR CODE IS ORANGE
Explosive-effusive eruption of the volcano continues. Ash explosions > 7.0 km (>23,000 ft)ASL could occur at any time. The activity of the volcano could affect international and low-flying aircraft.

SHEVELUCH VOLCANO: 56°38'N, 161°19'E; Elevation 3,283 m, the dome elevation ~2,500 m
AVIATION COLOR CODE IS ORANGE
Explosive-extrusive eruption of the volcano continues. Ash explosions > 10 km (>32,800 ft) ASL could occur at any time. The activity of the volcano could affect international and low-flying aircraft.

[paidworker]

Are those active right now ?

[paulmoscow]

Yes, they are:

Kamchatkan and Northern Kuriles Volcanic Activity
KVERT INFORMATION RELEASE 17-10
Thursday, April 15, 2010, 22:45 UTC (Friday, April 16, 10:45 KDT)

[paidworker]

Cheers, looks a different kettle of fish though in terms of output ? Your reports above suggest that more serious erruptions "might" occur but have not as of yet.
Activity at Shiveluch Volcano : Natural Hazards (http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=43264)

[CargoOne]

It looks flights will be partly restrated by Monday afternoon.

Those who believe this is not safe, please handle your resignations by Monday morning to your employer. Our industry don't need cowards who want to have all bells and whistles including high salary but are not prepared to do their work as expected.

[411A]

Those who believe this is not safe, please handle your resignations by Monday morning to your employer. Our industry don't need cowards who want to have all bells and whistles including high salary but are not prepared to do their work as expected.

Well said, fully concur.

[WojtekSz]

for those interested there is a document on volcanic hazard and aviation safety (http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/375/fsd_may93_p1-9.pdf) available through the CAA website:
some numbers are quoted on costs of repair and replacement after encounters with volcanic ash (eg 80milUSD for B747-400 damaged by an ash cloud from Reddoubt Volcano, Alaska, in Dec 1989)
...Complete avoidance of volcanic ash clouds is the only procedure that guarantees flight safety.

[vapilot2004]

I've seen the word coward thrown about here more than once and I fail to understand the usage in this situation. Are we at war? Is there a common enemy we need to band together against and press on no matter the consequences?

[JanetFlight]

They are flying till the first accident. Russians always learn on their own mistakes.

Dont We ALL learn with our own Mistakes, since as child...:confused:

[WojtekSz]

CargoOne + 411A:
are you suggesting that the cargo operations should start first?
So if it would prove to be safe the people carrying could safely start after some real operations data is gathered - this might be a good approach to investigate.
The only question is - would this operation be insured?

[allrounder99]

As a pilot, former engineer and now an Air Traffic Controller here is my 2 cents.

I believe that any pilot complaining about the decision to close airspace has his right to his opinion. He does not pay maintence bills and in all likely hood has no idea of the cost of maintence and the actual threat that volcanic ash poses to the components of an engine. There is enough evidence shown on this thread of the immediate results of ash ingestion to a gas turbine engine, e.g the finnish airforce f18 photos on page 31 or so.

From an ATC perspective, the law states that we may not clear an IFR aircraft to operate in an area known to be affected or forecast to be effected by volcanic ash. So why is there an argument here about the decision that was made to close airspace?

Personally I believe any pilot willing to fly in such conditions carrying passengers is irresponsible and this industry has no place for such people.

The economic effects of this volcano are dire, but nothing compared to what would happen when a few airliners crash because of it.

[rayand]

Having read all of this thread so far, I have not seen much on the evaluation of the dangers and risks of shutting down of airspace.

The decision to close down aviation will certainly reduce the risk of an accident, and will save some lives just by reducing the hours flown, and the amount of duty free cigarettes and alcohol sold -but it will also probably cause many deaths and injuries and other effects - which need to be understood so that the decision can be taken balancing the risks.

Some that can think of are:
(1) Immediate loss of life / injury caused by lack of air ambulance flights, stress related illneses, people being forced to stay in countries with less sanitation etc. loss of supply of drugs

(2) Displacement deaths: More deaths on roads, ferries, etc. due to increased traffic

(3) Economically related deaths. Millions in africa rely on air transported products (flowers,fruits, veg) to earn wages - their lower standard of living will cause deaths. Pilots, cabin crew, airport staff and their families will earn less money - generally less money means higher death rates

(4) Indirect loss of life due to loss of progress of life saving drugs (less business meetings etc.)

(5) Dangers due to loss of flying experience if pilots have periods of many weeks without flying

(6) Increased chance of death caused by soldiers in Afghanistan etc having to extend their tours of duty, and reduced interaction between govenrnemnts possibly increasing tensions / frictions etc.

Whatever these risks are, they demonstrate that somebody who knows only about the risks of volcanic ash and aviation can not be the decision maker about whether or not to shut down aviation. It needs to be somebody who can balance the risks of flying with the risks of not-flying.

For example, in the UK, around 3,000 people die in road accidents caused by motor cars each day, but presumably lives would be lost by banning all motorised road transport, not least of which would be horse related.

On that basis, I wonder who the decision maker really is, and where they are looking for the data to balance with?

[luoto]

Finnish airspace closed until 1800 local Monday now with revision under the day (further delays)?

[Oldie but Goodie]

"Cowardice" ....It's not the Battle of Britain!!

[mikk_13]

Lucky G Bush still doesn't run the states, I'm sure iceland would be invaded to find the weapon of mass disruption.

I am sure the ash has thinned out for the most part. But what if there are still areas that have not. I would have thought they would have done a bit more work on this to workout how much you could fly through.

[sabenaboy]

Take a look at this document:
"Issues arising from the 4th International Workshop on Volcanic Ash" (http://www.google.be/url?sa=t&source=web&ct=res&cd=1&ved=0CAgQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww2.icao.int%2Fen%2Fanb%2Fmet-aim%2Fmet%2Fiavwopsg%2FIAVWOPSG%2520Meetings%2FIAVWOPSG.4.WP .043.6.en.doc&rct=j&q=clear+limits+of+ash+content+are+required+from+both+the+man ufacturers+and+aviation+licensing+authorities&ei=a5jKS6S8O5mjONDPneMF&usg=AFQjCNFJ0YLn_J-B8o_jIC1y0pOIS-ZNlg)
This document was the result of a meeting held by the ICAO INTERNATIONAL AIRWAYS VOLCANO WATCH OPERATIONS GROUP (http://www2.icao.int/en/anb/met-aim/met/iavwopsg/Pages/default.aspx) held in Paris, september 2008.

Especially paragragraphs 2.5 and 2.6 are interesting. Allow me to quote the document: "Secondly, the past paragraph of the workshop summary suggested that ‘clear limits of ash content are required from both the manufacturers and aviation licensing authorities’. This refers to an indisputably difficult and longstanding problem; that there is no defined lower limit on ash concentration. As remote sensing techniques improve, it is likely that the aggregate areas where ash is sensed or inferred will increase, possibly leading to over-warning for ash and cost-blowouts for airlines"

Next please read the remark at the bottom of the LONDON VAAC Charts (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation/vaac/vaacuk_vag.html). It says: "RMK: ASH CONCENTRATIONS WITHIN INDICATED AREAS ARE UNKNOWN"

Combine these two and anybody with a little common sense should realise that the COMPLETE closure of the "affected" airspace is completely insane! Military aircraft should be up there NOW 24 hrs/day looking for those parts of the airspace where ask can be observed. Combine these observations with satellite imagery from visible ash clouds and concentrations and warn operators to stay clear of these areas and these areas only. Then perhaps impose a tighter maintenance schedule imposing boroscopic engine inspections every month or so.

And before anybody comes back with the NASA DC8 case: this flight happened on a dark moonless night!

I live here about 50 NM west of Brussels. The weather here is great: absolutely cloudless, blue sky with almost unlimited visibility. Give me an A320 and I'll be glad to make a test flight in this airspace at any altitude between MSL and FL390. Yes, I'll even take my kids along on the flight, but I will stay clear of ALL visible ash clouds.

I'm pretty convinced that time will tell that all this is an extreme overreaction.
This is not just a better-safe-then-sorry-matter, but an extreme and very costly example of a cover-your-arse-policy by the decision makers!

Best regards,
Sabenaboy

PS: @ one post only, replying to his post 757 (http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/412103-ash-clouds-threaten-air-traffic-post5641301.html?highlight=apologise#post5641301): I will apologise if later it turns out that completely closing the airspace was a good decision. Will you be so brave to apologise to all those you insult by your remark, when time will tell that this was indeed an insane overreaction?

[mikk_13]

And also I am sure there are many carriers that will be laughing all the way to the bank. With fewer european carriers, less competition for the asians, arabs, aussies and yanks. Lufhthansa doesn't have a plan in the air, that is quite costly for a 400+ fleet.

[Just wondering]

What I can't understand is that there are many airports in the world which have reduced visibiity due to pollution e.g. Dehli, Hong Kong etc - the pollution particles causing the restriction in visibility.

However, I can sit here in Scotland on a beautiful fresh Sunday morning with clear blue skies and unlimited visibiility in every direction but according to the met office I am covered by an ash cloud - are we actually saying that the ash particles don't restrict visibility in any way at all ?????????

[loc22550]

Allrounde99:
Nobody will question the danger of "Flying into Volcanic ash" BUT:

When we are talking about area "affected" by Volcanic ash..WHAT ARE WE TALKING ABOUT...Wich concentration or density..???
i THINK THE CLOSURE OF THE AIRSPACE IS NOTHING BUT A PRECAUTIONARY MEASURE AS NOBODY KNOWNS....

We are flying every year through sand storm in the middle east without any closure of airspace or airport with visibilty as low as ..500m even less..(very HIGH concentration of sand ).
So My QUESTION IS: WICH ONE IS WORST FOR THE ENGINE:..FLYING THROUGH THE EUROPEAN BLUE SKY WITH A VERY VERY LOW CONCENTRATION OF VOLCANIC ASH PARTICLES HERE AND THERE OR FLYING INTO A SAND STORM??:hmm:

[LadyGrey]

@CargoOne

but are not prepared to do their work as expected.

Maybe plenty are prepared to do their work as expected, but are not allowed to:=

Please, CargoOne, fly Monday afternoon and have a nice and safe flight!

Just in case you are having troubles up in the air,due to some irrelevant ash particels, and I really do not hope/wish so, please avoid flying south of Munich, as I am living there....

@411A

Brilliant answer, did the ash cloud reach Arizona already?

[ORAC]

Military aircraft do not have the necessary sensors. Cranfield, however, does, and has been flying.....

This is just the beginning, warn scientists (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/science/earth-environment/article7100906.ece#cid=OTC-RSS&attr=797084)

.....Yesterday a British scientist described how even modern aircraft technology cannot detect the clouds of ash. Guy Gratton, head of Cranfield University’s facility for airborne atmospheric measurement, took a flight with fellow researchers to gather data.

“Speaking as an aeronautical engineer, I would not want to be putting an airliner up there at the moment,” said Gratton.

“There is a lot of fairly nasty stuff there that we were running away from, knowing what we did. We have standard airline instruments on the aeroplane, we have got a storm scope and we have got a weather radar and they were looking straight through it."

"Neither of those were seeing any of this stuff. It was only our specialist cloud physics instruments that were able to see the particles.”

[jcjeant]

Hi,

the pollution particles causing the restriction in visibility.The volcanic ashes in big concentration can also cause a visibility restriction.
It's not really the problem actually.
The problem with the volcanic ashes (or volcanic particles) is that they act in a particular way when they are ingested in the jet engines ..
By a physical process (cause heat) they will not only make damages but they will also melt and stick on parts of the engine (turbine blades etc )

However, I can sit here in Scotland on a beautiful fresh Sunday morning with clear blue skies and unlimited visibiilitySo continue to enjoy your beautiful blue sky from the ground .. it's the best place to be actually :)

[BDiONU]

Please, CargoOne, fly Monday afternoon and have a nice and safe flight!

Just in case you are having troubles up in the air,due to some irrelevant ash particels, and I really do not hope/wish so, please avoid flying south of Munich, as I am living there....
Likewise the South coast of England where I live. In fact avoid any and all inhabited areas and don't expect any rescue if you come down in the sea.
You know what, maybe, just maybe, the governments of the Northern european countries which have clamped down on flying are trying to protect their population from the 'brave', gung ho, let me leap into my flying machine and ignoring all dangers take to the skies type of person. Just as they do by requiring flying machines to have a valid airworthiness certificate and the pilots of those machines to have a valid licence for the type.

BD

[allrounder99]

Lets theorise that this disaster continues to cripple the european aviation industry for the next month or so or even 3 months. How far a reach will this have on other markets?

Anyone know what percentage of global airline traffic is being affected right now? (or dependent on Euro transit) US domestic market is largely untouched so would it be as high as 40%? more maybe?

[kevincoy]

It has just been reported by several news outlets that Danish airspace is to remain closed until 01:00 (UK Time) tomorrow at the earliest.

Looking at the latest images from the VAAC, I don't think it is likely that anything across the UK and northern Europe will fly today or indeed, tomorrow either, with Tuesday potentially out of the question too looking at the high level wind forecasts.

[sabenaboy]

The problem with the volcanic ashes (or volcanic particles) is that they act in a particular way when they are ingested in the jet engines ..
By a physical process (cause heat) they will not only make damages but they will also melt and stick on parts of the engine (turbine blades etc )

please read my post nr 817. There are ALWAYS AND EVERYWHERE volcanic ash particles in the air. The ash concentration is never zero. Does that mean that airplanes should be banned from flying all over the world?

The problem is that no lower level acceptable ash concentration has been defined and decision makers are greatly overreacting. :ugh:

Read my post nr 817 (http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/412103-ash-clouds-threaten-air-traffic-41.html#post5641815)!!

[justawanab]

Cubbie said:

It should be up to the operator, and ultimately the passenger to decide if the risks are worth taking.

Sorry for butting in here.
I'm only SLF and have been reading this with interest and have refrained from commenting until I saw this. Surely he's joking isn't he?

What would I, as a passenger, know about the risks of flying an aircraft in these conditions particularly given that even the nominated experts really aren't sure?

If we went with this attitude for all flights then we would reach the situation where the SOP for any flight where there was a possible question about safety would involve a taking a vote amongst the passengers and crew to decide go or no go.

"We're not absolutely sure that we will make it to xxxx due to yyyy. Please tell us if you still want to fly. We'll go if we get 100"

[Tfor2]

It was jet planes that killed seagoing traffic back in the 60s.

Remember those grand old ladies of the ocean making slow but safe crossings? About time! Sure beats spending days in grim a/p lounges.

The old tortoise/hare story comes around again...:)

[one post only!]

Sabenaboy yes I will apologise if it makes you feel better. I will now do it in advance just in case I can't do it in the future. Sorry to anyone who branded professionals cowards and took offence at my remarks and attempts to defend them.

However I just don't believe you should EVER criticise someone for taking the safest course of action. Test flights need to be flown data gathered and airspace either opened immediately or kept closed till the danger subsides. We need more data to determine if this was a overreaction so that in the future we can manage this better. In the meantime though we need to remain on the cautious side. I agree very much that the right people should be up there gathering data and information. I have never said otherwise! In the future that decision may be easier to make as they will have this experience to draw down on.

I applaud your bravery. You take your family up flying then. I will wait like a coward and watch with a fire truck. I would happily do a test flight myself in an area with no visible ash clouds if I was told it was safe by scientist and "experts". The test flights in the UK did find contaminants in areas where no visible ash cloud was present. I would not bring my family along though just in case. Maybe I am a coward!

To call people cowards though I believe is dangerous. You should never apply pressure to force people to operate when they are not happy. Well I would have flown the approach. I wouldn't have taken the extra fuel. I would have snuck below minima. I would have kept the airspace open. etc etc. It’s how accidents happen.

Look it's a tough call. I am glad I don't have to make it. If you know better write to the authorities and tell them what you know, particularly about equipment over reading. The British scientists at cranfield may want to know their delicate equipment is over reading. Perhaps you would like to offer to re design it for them to be more accurate.

Just because the airspace over Brussels may be safe, doesn't mean it is over the UK, or France etc. There should be no blanket ban but individual authorities should make their own decision. Which is what I thought they were doing. The concentrations will be different in different places. This will change hourly. This is why anything other than blanket bans are difficult. In the UK they did open small portions of airspace when the threat diminished so a blanket ban is NOT in place. When a window of opportunity opens they open airspace. This point is quite important as it shows thought and consideration to a dynamic and fluid situation not just a knee jerk reaction. I wholeheartedly agree with you that there should NOT be a BLANKET ban. I never said otherwise.

More data. Specific bans.

I will bow out now and leave you heroes to chastise those who make difficult decisions on limited information while trying to safeguard the flying public....and you and me!

I would rather read on here about people moaning about the airspace closure being an overreaction than reading about complaints if it was the correct decision.

I am affected by this just as much as you! We all are. Well its looking like a nice day. I am going to go and enjoy this time with my family while those of you who know more and are much braver sort this mess out.

[tocamak]

Those who believe this is not safe, please handle your resignations by Monday morning to your employer. Our industry don't need cowards

That's got to be one of the most insulting and stupid comments I have read. At the moment no-one is allowed to fly in the area affected so personal choice (or bravery) doesn't come into it. Most sensible people (I don't include the author of the comment) will wait for those with some knowledge and authority to make a decision based on evidence based research and accumulated knowledge rather than some good old boy red kneck stupidity. It could turn out that this has been an overeaction but the other side of it could have had serious consequences. Posters who put comments like this do so safe in the knowledge that they will never have to justify them as they have only limited responsibility (own aircraft or maybe even a few old ones) rather than a wide responsibilty to hundreds of thousands of the members of the public.

[jcjeant]

Hi,

please read my post nr 817

I readed it :)

Yes, I'll even take my kids along on the flight, but I will stay clear of ALL visible ash clouds.

The problem is that you will not seen the cloud of ashes .. it's not visible by eyes or even board radar ...
I wish you good luck and I pray for your children :)

[Cubbie]

Perhaps you arent aware there are proceedures for encountering volcanic ash, there are proceedures for an engine failure, for blown tires on take off, a whole manner of dangerous events which can occur everyday. Flight crew are trained to deal with these situations. As SLF why do you put you life in their hands when you decide to travel? Are you telling me the risk of a catastrophic event is too great to think off.. As a passenger its your choice to move from AtoB yes it maybe hazardous, its dangerous to cross the road, perhaps everytime there is fog all roads should be closed by the government because people are too stupid to understand how dangerous it is. My point is who gets to decide?- the risks are known there are proceedures in place to deal with it, blanket bans are not the answer:ugh:

[WojtekSz]

Combine these two and anybody with a little common sense should realise that the COMPLETE closure of the "affected" airspace is completely insane! Military aircraft should be up there NOW 24 hrs/day looking for those parts of the airspace where ask can be observed. Combine these observations with satellite imagery from visible ash clouds and concentrations and warn operators to stay clear of these areas and these areas only. Then perhaps impose a tighter maintenance schedule imposing boroscopic engine inspections every month or so.
this is the way to go in the nearest future BUT so far there are no clear definitions of allowed ash concentrations. And no known methods of measuring them (what to measure, how densely take measurements vertically and horizontally). And no clear knowledge if all ashes have the same destruction capacity (size, shape, hardness)

Seems that emergency meeting of ATC+metOffice+airlines+enginemakers+governement(as citizen representation) is urgently needed in order to work out immediate decisions

[Just wondering]

JcJeant

<<The volcanic ashes in big concentration can also cause a visibility restriction. It's not really the problem actually>>

- after 20,000 hours and 30+ years I know that if there is something in the air it tends to restrict visibility - fly over the factories in china for example or fly into Hong Kong with the world's only visual transition level, which you can smell, and you'll know what I mean.

When Pinatubo and Mt St Helens blew up they put trillions of tons of volcanic dust in the air of which I believe a percentage is still there.... so we have been flying in this stuff for years.

At what point, at what concentration, will the authorities say it is ok to fly bearing in mind that their advisories, produced with their models (hopefully better than their weather predictions), say they don't know the contamination levels. The problem is like trying to find an AME to sign you off back to flying after your triple bypass !

[411A]

It could turn out that this has been an overeaction...

Without a doubt.
It is called 'nanny state action', and is quite typical of present day Euroland thinking.
They are welcome to it.
That...and the 'carbon credits' they want to enforce/sell with wild abandon.
Silly fools.

[fcom]

Dust falling now over northern UK and you only have to rub some of this between the fingers to realise the abrasive qualities of this stuff. The damage to engines and airframes could be quite considerable,realistically I can't see any end to this until next weekend at the earliest, and thats just the UK. :(

[sabenaboy]

@one post only;

However I just don't believe you should EVER criticise someone for taking the safest course of action.

What is "the safest course of action"?
What do you do if thunderstorms are forecast at your destination?
What do you do with a MEL-able defect?

Surely the safest course of action would be never to take-off in these or ANY conditions? The safest course of action is never do anything and stay in bed all day, but even that is somewhat dangerous: Wim Delaere was killed in the house the MIG-23 hit while he was waiting for his parents to come back from shopping. (http://www.nytimes.com/1989/07/05/world/pilotless-soviet-jet-crosses-europe-before-crashing.html?pagewanted=1)

I'm turning 47 today! Believe me: anybody knowing me will confirm that recklessness is not one of my characteristics. I'd still love to go flying today though!

Better safe then sorry? Of course!!! But please don't thrown common sense out of the window! :cool:

[Rongotai]

sabenaboy:


"The problem is that no lower level acceptable ash concentration has been defined and decision makers are greatly overreacting"

That comment sums up the heart of the problem. As no lower level acceptable ash concentration has ever been defined, then how can you assert that the decision-makers are greatly overreacting? They don't know and you don't know.

I agree that the fact that this is so represents a historical failure of both the industry and the regulators, but given the current state, then there is really no choice than to use a highly conservative risk assessment.

[ozaub]

I’m not sure that the media here in Australia grasp the enormity of Europe’s aviation shutdown. After 2001 terrorist attacks US airspace was closed for only 3 days but in the aftermath Delta’s CEO said that no airline could survive without a massive Federal bailout. It took Congress two days to appropriate a $16 billion rescue. See http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2002/12/09/eveningnews/main532311.shtml (http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2002/12/09/eveningnews/main532311.shtml).
That’s what Europe will need if the eruption continues much longer.
Sadly nobody was interested when Australian scientists developed a volcanic ash detector ten years ago. See http://www.csiro.au/files/mediaRelease/mr2001/Prvolcanoash.htm (http://www.csiro.au/files/mediaRelease/mr2001/Prvolcanoash.htm)

[Desk-pilot]

Well, speaking as a pilot I'm rather enjoying a break from a rather heavy roster and having just bought my 5 year old a new bike yesterday am looking forward to taking her out in the sunshine to ride it (when I get these darned stabilisers to fit!!)

Personally I'm glad that the authorities took the decisions to put safety first, it's a brave and sensible decision - it's the only right decision for everyone. I can't understand any pilot wanting to take stupid risks so why the urgency to climb back into the cockpit?

Just enjoy the break and the time with family and friends...

Now - anybody know any way of lengthening bike axles??!!

Desk-pilot

[BRE]

Handelsblatt reports that LH positioned 10 airframes from MUC to FRA yesterday by special permit. These were flying at 3 km under VFR. Why VFR?

[BDiONU]

Perhaps you arent aware there are proceedures for encountering volcanic ash, <snip> Flight crew are trained to deal with these situations. <snip> My point is who gets to decide?- the risks are known there are proceedures in place to deal with it, blanket bans are not the answer:ugh:
There are procedures for dealing with emergencies, however what do you think the effect is likely to be if an aircraft loses power due to ash ingestion over the London TMA on a normal day? Multiply that one aircraft by a dozen as all aircraft in the same bit of sky are likely to be similarly affected. Do you seriously think ATC will be able to get everything out of the way in time of a dozen aircraft falling out of the sky at the same time?
Please think outside of yourself and your aircraft, think of the others users and those on the ground who may not have the opportunity to get out of the way of your hunk of metal falling back to earth.

BD

[Squawk_ident]

Approaching EHAM presently FL70

[jbayfan]

The last time Iceland's Eyjafjallajokull volcano blew, the eruption lasted more than a year, from December 1821 until January 1823, reports Sally Sennert, a geologist at the Smithsonian Institution.

"This seems similar to what's happening now," she says.

The volcano is erupting small, jagged pieces of rocks, minerals and volcanic glass the size of sand and silt into the atmosphere, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. This volcanic ash can even be as small as 1/25,000th of an inch across.

Volcanic ash is formed during explosive volcanic eruptions. Once in the air, the wind can blow these tiny ash particles tens to thousands of miles away from the volcano. Life-threatening and costly damages can occur to aircraft that fly through an eruption cloud, reports the geological survey.

"Silica in the ash gets into the engine and heats up and melts, which causes the engines to stop," says Sennert.

Based on reported damages from ash encounters, the hazard posed to aircraft can extend more than 3,000 miles from an erupting volcano. (Click here for a map of the ash zone over Europe).

Fortunately for the USA, Sennert says the wind direction is such that the ash cloud is traveling east-southeast, toward Europe and away from the USA.

However, as Science Fair noted previously, the Eyjafjallajokull volcano isn't necessarily the main problem. It's Katla, Iceland's noisier neighbor, that's the concern. If lava flowing from Eyjafjallajokull melts the glaciers that hold down the top of Katla, then Katla could blow its top, pumping gigantic amounts of ash into the atmosphere.

The potential eruption of Iceland's volcano Katla could send the world, including the USA, into an extended deep freeze.

"There's no telling how long the eruptions could last," says Sennert about the Eyjafjallajokull volcano."These explosions could go on for some time."

[rayand]

Having read all of this thread so far, I have not seen much on the evaluation of the dangers and risks of shutting down of airspace.

The decision to close down aviation will certainly reduce the risk of an accident, and will save some lives just by reducing the hours flown, and the amount of duty free cigarettes and alcohol sold -but it will also probably cause many deaths and injuries and other effects - which need to be understood so that the decision can be taken balancing the risks.

Some that can think of are:
(1) Immediate loss of life / injury caused by lack of air ambulance flights, stress related illneses, people being forced to stay in countries with less sanitation etc. loss of supply of drugs
(2) Displacement deaths: More deaths on roads, ferries, etc. due to increased traffic
(3) Economically related deaths. Millions in africa rely on air transported products (flowers,fruits, veg) to earn wages - their lower standard of living will cause deaths. Pilots, cabin crew, airport staff and their families will earn less money - generally less money means higher death rates
(4) Indirect loss of life due to loss of progress of life saving drugs (less business meetings etc.)
(5) Dangers due to loss of flying experience if pilots have periods of many weeks without flying
(6) Increased chance of death caused by soldiers in Afghanistan etc having to extend their tours of duty, and reduced interaction between govenrnemnts possibly increasing tensions / frictions etc.

Whatever these risks are, they demonstrate that somebody who knows only about the risks of volcanic ash and aviation can not be the decision maker about whether or not to shut down aviation. It needs to be somebody who can balance the risks of flying with the risks of not-flying.

For example, in the UK, around 3,000 people die in road accidents caused by motor cars each year, but presumably lives would be lost by banning all motorised road transport, not least of which would be horse related.

On that basis, I wonder who the decision maker really is, and where they are looking for the data to balance with?

[tocamak]

Alternative approach

The irelevant authorities have issued the following statement:-

"There has been a major eruption of a volcano in Iceland the ash plume of which is being carried by the winds at altitude in the direction of NW Europe. The parts of the atmosphere affected are those used primarily by jet transport aircraft. The plume becomes more diluted as it drifts away from Iceland but the concentration is not really known with great accuracy and there is no real knowledge base as to the effect on aircraft engines in this scenario. We can state that it is not a good idea to fly through a visible plume but that's about it. However we dont want to interfere in something that is obviously a commercial decision so leave it to individual operators to decide if they are happy to operate in this case. We would welcome any feedback from operators as to their experience operating in these conditions as frankly no one knows how things will go. We suggest liasing with providers of insurance cover to check if adequate liability protection remains in place based on the foregoing lack of advice. Please be aware that if anything untoward should happen it's nothing to do with us. Happy landings.:)"

[one post only!]

Sabenaboy you are getting silly. 47 you say not 7?

What is the safest course of action. What a daft question. Of course you must apply common sense to everything.

CB at destination. So many variables but in the simplest case take extra fuel. Avoid. Hold. Wait for the right moment.

MEL - have you dispatched or not? Is there engineering cover down route? etc etc

Don't make me out to be some by the book big girl who isn't a REAL pilot hand flying all the way with one eye closed and one hand behind my back because I support the decision of experts.

Look. Whatever. You are a hero. You fly. I will sit on the ground. I am sure a man of your capabilities will have no problems gliding the bird back in for tea, medals and a public parade.

P.S I do agree with some of what you are saying but I think you are not reading my posts properly. I can no longer be bothered now. Goodbye.

[Stoic]

Profit Max #770

Incorrect. The cloud the NASA plane flew through was entirely unnoticeable, 200 miles North of the predicted ash cloud, and only picked up because they were a atmospheric research plane that had sensitive equipment onboard. They also only flew through the ash for 5 or 10 minutes.
From the top of page 11 of the NASA incident report:


The flight crew noted no change in cockpit readings, no St. Elmo’s fire, no odor or smoke, and no
change in engine instruments. They did notice that no stars were visible, but this is typical of flight
through high cirrus clouds.
After seven minutes the crew noticed that the stars had reappeared, and at about this time the
scientists reported that the research instrument readings had returned to normalSounds like NASA's encounter was with a visible ash cloud.

Regards

S

[Denti]

Handelsblatt reports that LH positioned 10 airframes from MUC to FRA yesterday by special permit. These were flying at 3 km under VFR. Why VFR?

Because ATC can not give an IFR clearance as the airspace is regulated to zero flow which means no IFR clearance can be given to enter the relevant airspace. VFR is still allowed of course as the airspace is not closed.

[marconiphone]

My point is who gets to decide?- the risks are known there are proceedures in place to deal with it, blanket bans are not the answer

Surely the point is that the risks are not known to any degree of precision and there are not procedures in place to deal with them - other than the measures currently taken. It's a continuously changing situation. If I were running an airline I wouldn't want to base my decision on whether one gung-ho individual were willing to risk his life flying through or near volcanic ash. And I wouldn't want to risk reducing large number of jet engines to scrap metal even if nothing actually hit the ground in an unfortunate manner.

I'm no fan of big government, still less of Gordon McBroun, but to see current measures as manifestations of the nanny state, or of dreaded eurodomination (eek!), and to want to key decisions in current conditions left to individual airlines, or individual pilots, seem lunatic to me.

Remind me not to fly with you any time soon.

[FliegerTiger]

It is called 'nanny state action', and is quite typical of present day Euroland thinking

Well this could be a reaction to the suing culture that prevails in Euroland now, now let me think, where did that start...????? I do believe it was the "Good ol' U S of A"........

There's no room for macho in aviation, duuuude.....

[Rongotai]

Ozaub wrote:

"Sadly nobody was interested when Australian scientists developed a volcanic ash detector ten years ago".

Down here in Australasia/South Pacific we are surrounded by active volcanoes (Yassur in Vanuatu is in permanent eruption). That's why Australia paid attention to this problem. But - as Ozaub hints - nobody has ever been interested in properly studying the problem or spending money on mitigating technologies and strategies. 'Fly round the bugger' has been the simple response. Yet we have plenty of evidence that volcanic ejecta are unlike other forms of dust, are much more damaging than them, that they are hard to detect when invisible to the naked eye, and yet can be damaging even when invisible (Australian aviators in PNG know this very well).

If anything good comes out of the disastrous social and economic consequences of this natural event it will be that, at last, attention and resources will be applied to the many scientists around the world who have spent decades devoted to an underfunded and unappreciated cottage industry concerned with the impacts of volcanic activity on aircraft operations.

As you can see, as usual, it is not a conspiracy but a c*** up, and one that was embedded by generations of industry and government decision makers resulting in a no-win legacy to the hapless current generation who have to try and deal with this situation. Feel for them, don't yell at them - or, at least, not until they show signs of ducking the issue again when this all dies down.

[Grasscarp]

Just spotted this lone KLM 777 coming in to Amsterdam. Anybody know why they did this?
http://www.radarvirtuel.com/
Unfortunately you wont be able to see this now, but it was PAE-AMS KLM777 and the only aircraft in the swathe of grey ash warning area.

[jonathang]

Just noticed on http://www.radarvirtuel.com/ the following aircraft overhead PMI. If this information is accurate how are TUI operating Las Palmas > Gothenburg through the ash cloud?


Flight Number : BLX284
Company : TUIfly Nordic
ICAO Hex Code : 4A8142
Reg Code : SE-DZK
Model : Boeing - B737-804
Departure : LPA - Las Palmas De Gran Canaria, Gando - Spain
Arrival : GOT - Gothenburg, Landvetter - Sweden
Last Message : 7:38:59 UTC
Latitude : 39.36214
Longitude : 2.79405
Altitude : 10972 m - 35997 ft
Ground Speed : 867 km/h - 539 mph - 468 knots
Vertical Speed : -20 m/min - -66 ft/min (DESCENT)
Squawk : 5371
Heading : 67º

[mainbearing]

What a can of worms, I mean in a flash, ash and trash, rehash, no cash, bash maybe crash.
Off the thread slightly but have on numerious occasions flown in and out of some hectic sand storms/dust filled air space in west and north africa and yes there was (eventually) evidence of pitting etc. on LE, nacelles and fan blades-nobody seemed to worry too much!
Guess we living in changing times where it's easier to say no, than well lets take a good look and just maybe....

[wxjedi]

Good evening from my hotel room in China. Its the end of my sixth day of a two day trip with no sign of it getting any shorter. Im considering starting the long trip to Ireland by road. I cant tell you how lonely it is being isolated from your family in these circumstances. I was speaking to a couple last night that our flying to NY to get a cruise to Europe
Rumours are now around that the airlines will have to look at letting go staff during these times. That really scares me. My job is long haul out of London and things dont look like improving for a while.
No indication from the airline yet but the mood in the hotel bar from all the foreign crews is not good.
I keep hearing people sayings its great to hav a ew days off. This is serious. We could have crews losing their jobs.

Tom

[worrab]

We're with you in spirit - can't be easy.

Car hire could be a problem - and the ferries are increasingly booked up. Then there's always a taxi. Rumour has it that a well known actor spent €3,500 on a taxi across much of Northern Europe.

[james solomon]

KLM 737 test flight indicates no volcanic ash risk (http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2010/04/18/340745/klm-737-test-flight-indicates-no-volcanic-ash-risk.html)

[cirr737]

Well..hmm... based on the information i collected from various science sources, i expect to be laid off by the end of next week (major airline)

[Squawk_ident]

Kl7421 744

[5LY]

This too shall pass and you will look back on these days with fondnest when you're flogging along putting it all back together.

[Limburg]

Just spotted this lone KLM 777 coming in to Amsterdam. Anybody know why they did this?
http://www.radarvirtuel.com/
Unfortunately you wont be able to see this now, but it was PAE-AMS KLM777 and the only aircraft in the swathe of grey ash warning area.
KLM had to divert 7 planes to Düsseldorf on Thursday evening. Dutch Airspace was closed for ALL flights (even VFR) at that time, while the German wasn't. Today they are ferrying all of them back to Amsterdam.

[flewonce]

Re the post from #820 So you think the aussies, arabs etc are enjoying the lack of competition? Emirates have 40000 stranded passengers ( as of yesterday), and are paying to keep more than 5000 of those in accomodation and sandwiches in Dubai. Some of the ME airlines have had to cancel routes as far away as Australia because their aircraft are stuck on the ground in Europe and they have no planes to service "unaffected" routes. Qantas have cancelled all flights to Europe for the third day running. And while a few pilots on this forum are enjoying their time at home with the kids, I have Australian family stuck in godawful parts of England who are missing out on their kid's wedding at home. There is little silver lining in this, unless you operate the Eurostar or live under the Heathrow flight path.

[orionsbelt]

As I have not read all posts I'm sorry if this has been covered before.

1 Has any research aircraft / UAV flown and measured the concentration of dust in the different areas around the volcano. I fail to understand how an area from 85 east to 55 west and 70 north to 40 south can all have dangerous concentrations of dust. As an astronomer last night the sky at my home in Essex was the clearest I've seen it in months.

2 Of course understand that directly downwind for a certain distance that there will be danger however what is the dispersal rate of the dust. Where I live in the UK every summer we have dust fall out from the Desert and nobody seems bothered by that.

3 What is the validation of the computer model used to show the rate of contamination / dispersion of the dust. i.e. how valid are these predictions. Somebody please tell me that this is a tested and proved computer model and not just a met mans whim!!!

4 I expect the 'Be safe police / regulators ' will jump on my mail but I'm schedule to fly to the far east on Tuesday and if I'm cancelled I want to know it was for the right reason and not some government nerd covering his butt.

***

[Just wondering]

One thing is for sure - if the authorities don't quickly get a grip on the technical side of this ie. what are the concentrations, where "exactly" is the ash (not what their model predicts), and what is safe, there will be many pilots out of work in the very near future......... just consider the effect if this goes on for weeks or months

As well as pilots many assciated jobs and aviation service companies will be hit and, of course, the wider economy.

On the bright side all the greenies who want to stop air travel might wind their necks in a bit particularly if they've been stuck abroad at a "conference"!!

[Just wondering]

Whats the actual measured data - Orionsbelt ......... exactly !!

[dc10fr8k9]

I completely agree with you. The authorities are being so paranoid careful that they are doing more damage than they are trying to prevent. At least you are in a hotel room with a bar, and I am luckily at home, and I fear for the industry too just like you do. The skittish authorities sitting at home enjoying a weekend off ought to go sleep in Heathrow or Frankfurt in a cot for six days with no shower and money run out, in order to contemplate that life always has risks. Thunderstorms have claimed a lot more lives than ash clouds, so the next step is close the airspace all summer because a thunderstorm may pop up unexpectedly? Icing, thunderstorms, unexpected fog, etc, etc, we have to deal with it, not hide in the bunker. Every now and then a Titanic has the lousy luck to hit an iceberg, while a thousand other ships reach safe harbor. These authorities would never have let Columbus leave port. Oh yes, while we're at it, when you do finally get on, take off your shoes and underwear and no water or shampoo allowed, and give me that nail file. We are legislating and regulating and restricting an essential service out of business.

[stephenwilliams40]

theres another, KLM7421 at FL100, B747 approaching Amsterdam from Curacao

[LandASAP]

Kl7421 744 Tncc-eham...Is actually an positioning flight from DUS to AMS right now in FL100 inbound EHAM RW06.

Also the B777 was an position flight from DUS to AMS as KL7461.

KLM was doing one testflight with an B737 in the morning on the AMS-DUS-AMS routing which was positive without any affect to the aircraft. So they are now starting to ferry there stranded aircrafts from DUS back to AMS:

Greetings

[tatin]

KLM, like other EU company`s, wants to fly. The beancounters, pennlickers, civil servants are not taken scientific studies from NASA into account. CAA and Eurocontrol are slow working government bodies.

Aircraft avoid visible ashclouds or known positions of clouds. Dispersing ash over the globe are not visible ashclouds and do not influence aircraft performance as demonstrated by aircraft returning to their base.

When Pinatubo and other dangerous vulcanos errupted the airspace was NOT closed. Warnings for air traffic were NOTAMed. Those aerosol clouds dispersed around the world and affected global weather.The density of the aerosols was and is not large enough to affect a/c engines. Aircraft kept on flying.

[Bearcat]

ditto, I thought it was great initially, few beers, couple of days off etc.....the cold light of day is emerging and if this is not resolved by mid next week, staff imo are at risk, me too. Also my heart goes out to crews stuck worldwide in hotels not knowing when they are going to get home. Even when this is resolved re flights back working again there will be chaos in airports with folk trying to get on flights.:uhoh:

[jcjeant]

Hi,

http://i41.tinypic.com/e0gwtg.jpg

[Bill G Kerr]

Quote: #849
For example, in the UK, around 3,000 people die in road accidents caused by motor cars each day....

That is about a million per year. We just can't sustain that loss!

You meant 'worldwide' I think

[sabenaboy]

Just enjoy the break and the time with family and friends...

What many here don't seem to understand is that if this lunacy goes on for much longer many of us are going to get a real long break from flying...:sad:

[BDiONU]

What many here don't seem to understand is that if this lunacy goes on for much longer many of us are going to get a real long break from flying...:sad:
And if you take the risk and fly and it all goes horribly wrong then some people:
a: Will never fly again
and
b: SLF will avoid that company like the plague and it'll go bust.


Rock & hard place come to mind.

BD

[ILS27LEFT]

:sad:The KL test flight can only give some partial indications and further prolonged tests will have to be done before any conclusion is reached.
Flying in volcanic ash for 30 mins or 1.5 hour can have opposite effects and results.

The invisble ash is 100% real over our sky: a clear blue sky does not mean anything in volcanic ash terms, you can check your car and you can clearly see the layer of golden dust if you live under the cloud. Up in the air there is a lot more of that fine abrasive invisible material. High atmospheric pressure means the cloud is not moving much, weather did not help at all.

The main worry now remains the duration of this eruption and the neighbour Katla.
The present activity could last several months and, even if winds will change direction and ash emissions will reduce, European air traffic might be intermittently disrupted again for long periods. Frightening.
We must hope that this volcano calms down asap, the biggest danger remains Katla which could activate within 2 years if it follows the historical pattern.


At this stage nobody really knows what is going to happen :eek: Nature is in full charge.

[eltonioni]

Now they just need to find lots of crews and pax that will also fly through it.

[wxjedi]

I glad to see there is a good spirit out there.
Best of luck to us all.
I think you're right. Well get things running again and add this one our story book.

Tom

[pb643]

Could somebody clarify what data decisions are presently being made on?

From this thread I have gathered that the ash is not visible to the naked eye, except in very high concentrations. What levels of ash contamination are visible to satellite imagery?

Having got down to level below which it is not visible on satellite imagery, I presume everything else is based on computer modelling. The longer the eruptions continue, the further the ash spreads and the more complex the weather patterns have been to disperse the ash. Therefore the accuracy of the model will get gradually worse, because there is being little or no verification of the predicted data with measurement.

So I am assuming that once the ash is no longer detectable on satellite imagery, the accuracy of any other predictions is gradually getting less.

Have I totally misread the situation?

Phil

[Mr Optimistic]

Quote: #849
For example, in the UK, around 3,000 people die in road accidents caused by motor cars each day....

Think he means deaths involving all motor vehicles per YEAR in the UK. It's about 10 a day including pedestrians etc.

[Stoic]

#864. Excellent post. The big problem that we face is that the government agencies which started this hare running have to find a face-saving way to extract themselves from the mess. Meanwhile the worldwide economic damage is incalculable. Jobs will be lost, businesses will be lost. Lives also will be lost.

IMHO this is not about bravery or cowardice which, as has already been written, has no place in aviation. It is about judgment.

[ILS27LEFT]

A DHL 757 flying at 4,000 feet right now over Leicester
Speed 265mph
Callsign: BCS100F

A test cargo flight?

[Cubbie]

You arent the only one stuck, plenty of us in this boat together! Yea it is very serious especially since its still erupting and no end in sight, job security is a huge worry, may have to have a few more beers in the bar, think how to apply for a job on a cruise liner.

[circuitbreaker13]

The test flight has only proven there's no immidate threat to aircraft flying through such dilluted clouds of volcanic ash!!!

Anyone with enough common sense could have told you before the flight.

Even after boroscoping these engines afer the testflight would not show anything but that doesn't mean it's all ok.

After longer periods of operating airplanes and their engines with these conditions it could very well have effect!!!!!

But the good news is that all aircraftengines are monitored via a health monitoring system.

So if after some time residue will start building up on some engineparts it will be picked up as the engine will start over time to run hotter and less fuel efficient!

So I think it should be a commercial choice to fly or not to fly as engines will last maybe only 3000 hours on wing rather then 5000 hours but there is no immidiate danger!!!

[Aslak]

Orionsbelt!

Well said! :ok:

[chrystall]

worrying times indeed - but if the airline industry starts to cut staff it won't be just crew that are affected will it? :rolleyes:

[ExSp33db1rd]

mainbearing

I know it's difficult to keep track of all the comments on posts on a thread like this, but the difference between common sand and volcanic ash has been covered.

Apparently it's different, I wouldn't know, but am prepared to accept the word of those who have actually experienced it.

Nevertheless, let's be wary of every self-styled " expert " - X is an unknown quantity, and a spurt is a drip under pressure.

[bereboot]

Would it be easy to lay-off operational people ?
I mean , the market is still there , flights have to be flown , only the revenue is missing for a few days / weeks.
So only the very low on cash airline's might have to stop , but then other's will florish by catching this part of the market.
I think the risk for operational people is limited , however the annual results for the airline will suffer

[00nix]

After watching on the sideline for the last days, my 2 cents as someone directly involved:

1. Yes, the decision not to fly will be conservative. That is how we deal with unknowns in aviation. If you don't know what is going to happen, don't do it.

2. The reason why the decision is conservative: testing the maximum ash density (dependent on ash type) that may safely be flown through is expensive, very expensive. Luckily, until now volcano eruptions have been in such locations that we could fly around any suspected clouds. Furthermore, none have been in such density used airspace with such a densely populated area below it (not only the aircraft, crew, and passengers are at risk in a crash). Flying around was cheaper than spending R&D and investment in being able to fly through predicted ash conditions.

Rest assured that, now that avoiding ash is clearly no longer the cheapest option, researchers in all kinds of fields (primarily the engine manufacturers, but also meteorologists, risk management experts, aviation maintenance experts) will be going to spend larger amounts of money on this. This may result in better ash tracking techniques, the fitting of ash detection equipment on aircraft, operational limits and all kinds of inventions. Only situations like the present makes spending the money on this worthwhile.

3. Finally on the validity of the VAAC model. (meteorologists please correct me where appropriate) The model is simply the best model available. If you compare the various dispersion results from Germany, Noway and the VAAC, you will see they are very similar, which tells me that they are most likely quite good.

The model probably has been tested based on previous volcanic eruptions and other dispersal events like as Tjernobyl. This situation is quite hard to recreate in small scale or otherwise. The data from the NERC flight will be used to validate and correct the model were needed.

Now lets all hope first of all that that ugly piece of rock in Iceland decides to quit smoking soon!

00nix

[barossavalley]

Irish Aviation Authority: Shutdown of Irish airspace extended to 1pm Monday, inc N American flights. "Ongoing restrictions likely." Next update 09.00 tomorrow on Irish Aviation Authority (http://www.iaa.ie)

[kevincoy]

British Airways have just announced that they have cancelled all flights to/from London tomorrow (Monday).

[dixi188]

dc10fr8k9.

I think you'll find that the Titanic sinking was not all bad luck.

Icebergs were known to be in the area and the advice was to take a more southerly route. However the Captain wanted to make the fastest crossing, so dis-regarded this advice and steamed at normal speed into an area of known icebergs.

Should we in aviation ignore the advice of people with more knowledge than ourselves and press on, hoping for the best?

I for one don't want to be a statistic in the aviation history of "accidents".

I'm stuck in TLV waiting to fly cargo to Italy or Germany or anywhere in Europe that's open for that matter..

Dixi.

[ChalfontFlyer]

Worth just noting this morning that whilst the vast majority of airlines are currently unable to operate wthin the British Isles, it is possible to fly between the islands in the Channel Islands where both Aurigny & Blue Islands are continuing to operate their schedules.

[aterpster]

After longer periods of operating airplanes and their engines with these conditions it could very well have effect!!!!!

Then again, so long as the plume is visible on sat photos, whose to say some part is not sufficiently concentrated to cause immediate engine failures such as those that have happened before in other parts of the world?

[dixi188]

ILS27L

DHL 757 going to Lasham for maintenance. (G-BMRJ)

[scr1]

uk flt restrictions now till 0100 on monday

[Denti]

So I think it should be a commercial choice to fly or not to fly as engines will last maybe only 3000 hours on wing rather then 5000 hours but there is no immidiate danger!!!

You mean instead of the usual 40.000+ hours on the wing.

[Mshamba]

Well, nowadays airline business might be a bit like Darwin, survival of the fittest. But even dinosaurs died out once... sitting at home doing nothing but producing costs with ZERO business done - how long can these last costing no jobs???

My beer tastes more bitter than before. And believe me, i do like a bitter.

[silverstrata]

ILS:
If you are in London, look outside the window right now: the moon is red


It often is, just like the Sun. Perhaps this is the first time you have actually looked. Not really a good indicator of ash in the atmosphere. Sun was not much redder than usual, and the horizon looked quite clear.

Big scare story, like Swine Flu.

[Nemrytter]

.........................

[Global Warrior]

Hi People

Theres too much going on here that is just too vague. For a start the area of volcanic ash is a best guess anyway based on a model that has no input with actual location of volcanic ash being as it cant be measured. Therefore, it could be far far more wide spread than we think, or significantly less wide spread. The reason this is becoming so emotive is because no one is actually aware of the severity or inconsequence of any risk.

Thats fine people but the notion that suddenly an aeroplane is going to fall out of the sky if a test flight is conducted is just ludicrous. For those that have even bothered to examine the BA9 incident, even they, after flying in the most concentrated part of the ash cloud, got all 4 engines running again once they descended out of it so comments like


Do you seriously think ATC will be able to get everything out of the way in time of a dozen aircraft falling out of the sky at the same time?

:ugh::ugh::ugh::ugh::ugh:

One "aeronautical engineer" is wheeled out after a flight in a Dornier, that BTW DID NOT CRASH and says that he wouldnt want to put airliners up there. Sadly he has lost all credibility as it was HIS PERSONAL OPINION released immediately after he returned........ there had not been any time to examine the data recovered. Maybe he smelt sulphur and that clouded his judgement but firing off like that was nothing more than him getting his 15 minutes of fame. People on this forum are really good at castigating anyone who comments on an aircraft accident before the report is released. So it should be that this idiot be castigated.......... for speaking out of turn.

It seems to me that instead of having a plan to keep everyone on the ground, we should try to devise a plan to get people back into the air. I dont say that due to bravado, i say that because i am aware of the risks of flying an aeroplane, and they are acceptable risks, otherwise the aviation industry wouldn't exist. OK so we now have a new risk but NO ONE knows the extent of this risk......... but for sure, aircraft arent going to spontaneously combust...... and so far the aviation world has had far more engine failure incidents than it has volcanic ash incidents and we are trained for these........AND it has already been proven that volcanic ash resides in the atmosphere 100% of the time. Therefore we should start slowly and with certain restrictions in place and then move on once data has been gathered.

So a start could be, for example, to let 4 engined aircraft operate, within the assumed affected area in Daylight hours only and outside of visible cloud and then inspect said aircraft for engine damage on a continual basis and as we build a knowledge base, move forward.

Scaremongering isnt going to help anybody and neither is bravado. Moving forward, step by small step will allow us all to learn, which after having read EVERY post on this thread, is the one undeniable common denominator associated with it.......everyone needs to learn....... so when HEATHROW DIRECTOR says.....not with me on board..... GOOD get back to West Drayton and do the job that you are actually qualified to comment on :ok:

Regards

GW

[WojtekSz]

see the lidar data
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2010/volcano/lidar/lidar.png
seems that the ash is falling 1000m in about 2 hours
similar data from other MetOffice dust observation stations.
So:
(1) MetOffice, as expected, has some real time ash presence knowledge and technology in place
(2) ash is slowly falling down, as expected ;), but new is flowing in so there are no clear flight levels for any prolonged time
(3) any one happy with some additives to his air intake pls see what could be expected
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2010/volcano/ash/ash-sample-x100.jpg

anyone interested pls see MetOfficewebsite (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2010/volcano.html)

[barossavalley]

Irish airspace shut down until 1pm Monday, including N American flights. Lots of transfer passengers who arrived yesterday morning are still stranded in Dublin. IAA statement says "ongoing restrictions likely."

[bereboot]

Offcourse , if this will continue for months or more , but still then we stop with aviation , we just say ok , no more flying ? Unthinkable !

[Nemrytter]

Hello JetII

[silverstrata]

And if you take the risk and fly and it all goes horribly wrong then some people:
a: Will never fly again
and
b: SLF will avoid that company like the plague and it'll go bust.


Which is why we need more research and testing - now.

There should have been research aircraft up every day, measuring the concentrations and (supposed) turbine damage at these concentrations, so we have some real data to go on. (the Nimrod on two engines)

Sitting on the ground and saying 'we are all going to die' is going to do nothing for aviation. Remember, this eruption may go on for the next two or more years.

Do we dispand aviation completely, or do something????


.

[TRC]

Sand is abrasive with a melting point above the temperatures found in a gas turbine engine.

Volcanic particles are abrasive and melt at temperatures lower than in a gas turbine engine.

Sand passes through - the other stuff melts and re-solidifies inside the engine.

Whilst is is undesirable to fly through either of these conditions, it would appear that sand is the least damaging - to engines at least.

p.s.

The particles in the photo in #889 are what I reported seeing on my otherwise clean windscreen last evening.

[Dave's brother]

A reminder to those who haven't read all the entries in this thread, there is a search tool on this site. So if "sand concentration" is your big thing, why not give it a try? etc etc etc.

As for Orionsbelt's question about "the whim of a met man" versus a "proven computer model", I think you'd have to be incredibly naive or an uber-conspiracy theorist to side with the "whim" theory. But if you want, why not defy the orders, jump in a plane and see what happens. If your engines stop, the model is proven.

Or search for the word "muck" on this site and see what you find.

As someone else put it earlier, "What is the safest course of action here?"

And another thing: Just read a post about the BA flight that lost all engines many years ago. How dangerous can it be, asked a poster. They got all the engines going again. Hmm. Yes. But I don't think they did a 60 minute turnaround when they got to their destination. Airlines can't afford to inspect their engines after every flight, never mind fix/replace them.

[allrounder99]

@loc22550

I can directly answer your question about sand storms v volcanic ash.

Sand (in its many forms) really has only effect on the engine. Abrasion.

Volcanic Ash is 'harder' than sand, and has sharper edges therefore dramatically increasing the abrasive properties of the particles. Over time, this abrasion will render an engine U/S. How much time? we don't know yet hence the problem.

The bigger problem with the Volc. Ash, is that it melts inside the combustion chamber turning to a fluid. When it cools, it forms on the surfaces of the engine causing blockages of cooling holes and veins, imbalancing of rotating parts etc.

Since the turbine engines operating temperatures reach far beyond the melting point of metal components within the engine, when these cooling holes and veins are blocked, the engine fails soon thereafter.

You don't get this problem with a sandstorm.

In Germany, we have the airspace open above FL355. no one has used it yet and sadly i think more of the same tomorrow and tuesday too.

Lets all just hope, and pray if you are so inclined that this disaster is over sooner rather than any kind of later.

[gas path]

So I think it should be a commercial choice to fly or not to fly as engines will last maybe only 3000 hours on wing rather then 5000 hours but there is no immidiate danger!!!
I hope they last a darn site longer than 5000hrs!
The build up that welds itself onto the turbine blade surface is not such a problem except for the reduction in efficiency and an increased fuel burn. The major problem lies in the build up inside the blades that blocks the cooling holes and leads eventually to a burn through.:8
The effects on the rest of the airframe: Pitot static port contamination and the effects of erosion (sandblasting!). Plus of course, if it should rain it turns nicely acidic!

[mr.777]

so when HEATHROW DIRECTOR says.....not with me on board..... GOOD get back to West Drayton and do the job that you are actually qualified to comment on


Global Warrior...

A) We're not at West Drayton anymore
B) Unless your area of expertise is volcanoes, then you are no more qualified than any other aviation professional to comment on this situation.

[Admiral346]

Mr. Camel: Stereotyping will not help here, it only offers some insight of your thoughtprocess...

Simonpro: The KLM testflight was conducted from SFC to max Level and back down, to cover all levels. And it fits the profile of a normal short haul flight. Maybe you wouldn't be able to go all the way to FL410, but a "normal" jet should make FL 350 in any case (I said normal, not BAE146!). So passing through the 20's will take about 5 minutes on the way up, and another 5 on the way down. At least in what I fly.
LH reports not even a scratch found on the paint, nothing in the engines on a 40 minute flight MUC - FRA at FL240. According to Spiegelonline not even a Metballoon has been launched so far in Germany and all the predictions are calculations by the Volcanic Ash Center in London, not real meassurements.

I am beginning to think that the problem is overrated!

Nic

[MPN11]

@ ChalfontFlyer ... Worth just noting this morning that whilst the vast majority of airlines are currently unable to operate wthin the British Isles, it is possible to fly between the islands in the Channel Islands where both Aurigny & Blue Islands are continuing to operate their schedules.


Aurigny operate piston engined BN Trislanders at around 1500' on the short [20-30nm] hops between the islands.
Blue Island operates a variety of types, but I suspect they are using their Trislanders on inter-island hops as well.

Not exactly in the same league;)

[Squawk_ident]

Another B739 (positioning?) landing EHAM now. Presuming that they are on IFR, it would appear that some State/regulator are now opening the door (airspace) to serve, perhaps, some private bodies. It means that within 5 hours all operators will ask the same thing to fly aircraft with or without pax. Maastricht has officially reopened its airspace above 355 as per CFMU portal site. Does KLM operates in VFR and who does exactly control these flight. Some live feeds indicates that the callsign is as KLM and not the reg nbr. Any info on this please.
Btw there are rumors, Sigmet, that the Etna has just waken up this morning.

[allrounder99]

A quick thought on sending aircraft up to measure this and that and measure turbine wear and damage.

1. It appears its hard to measure quantities from what I've read on here so far but I have no idea about the subject, and furthermore, no idea if the people's comments I read had any idea or not.

2. The concentration of ash in a particular part of the sky is changing second by second. So really what good is any data that is collected. In 4 hours time, it could be vastly different turning a 'safe' zone into something worse.

[No Headroom]

I would have thought the fact that the VOLCANIC ACTIVITY HAS CEASED (at present) would be of interest.
If this is considered irrelevant, then please pardon me.

Repetition of info already posted seems to be of interest though.
Have tried to post twice in the last 10 minutes, but the post has not shown.Here it is:

Hi.

all quiet on the western front, at present . .
http://eldgos.mila.is/eyjafjallajokull-fra-thorolfsfelli/ (http://eldgos.mila.is/eyjafjallajokull-fra-thorolfsfelli/)

Maybe it’s deemed not worthy.Sorry.

[biddedout]

Silverstrata.

We no longer have Nimrods. They were grounded forever last month.
Having said that, if they need some aircrat airborne to assess the long term damage to engines, they might as well get them airborne again since they were going to the scrappy anyway.

[Wefeedumall]

It's not looking good for anyone right now, but some of us on the ground have already been affected. I along with many others am into our third day of no work and hence no pay, the joys of agency work! Still the gardens looking nice:)
Good luck everyone.

[Bruce Wayne]

You mean instead of the usual 40.000+ hours on the wing.


Cough !

In your dreams.. ever heard of an LLP data sheet?

Know what Time and Cycle limited apply to to the disks, shaft, bearings etc etc ?


What do you think happens when an AD or SB is due ?

[badgerh]

Rayand,

3000 people are killed on UK roads every year, not day - 2% of the population per year might cause a complete shutdown of the road network! Just like one volcano related aircraft accident would cause a complete shutdown of airspace - something the authorities do not want for obvious reasons.

[Snoopy]

I mean , the market is still there , flights have to be flown , only the revenue is missing for a few days / weeks.

There will be a tremendous backlog of people to move once the dust has settled. I have a colleague in Shanghai who was supposed to fly yesterday. The earliest they could rebook him is the 25th April. He has status on that airline and so they were looking after him. Other people on the same flight were being rebooked on May 10th!!! I have also heard that warehouses are full of freight that isn't being moved and all this stuff will also need to be shipped.

When all this is done and dusted it will probably be all hands on deck. I can imagine that some of you will never have worked as hard in your lives. Let's all hope that is sooner rather than later. In the meantime...best of luck to one and all!

[ChalfontFlyer]

Reply to MPN11 (post 898) - But at least it's giving them both the opportunity to generate some much needed revenue in these very difficult times!

[Nemrytter]

Hello JetII

[wobble2plank]

I love the way everybody jumps onto the engine damage bandwagon whilst totally ignoring the dangers involved with the total blockage of the pitot static system. Especially after the Air France event that could have been caused by a similar situation albeit rapid ice blockage. I admit fully that damage to the engines is extremely concerning the other dangers are no less worrying!

Whilst we train regularly with volcanic ash encounters, leading to unreliable airspeed, in the simulator having to do it for real with a full passenger load is something I would not particularly enjoy!

Pitot heat and anti icing systems won't work for an ash blockage and, as we can't see the clouds/concentrations on weather radar nor do we have any detection instrumentation apart from the unreliable airspeed sop's (which would be pretty much closing the door after the horse has bolted), I think operating commercially would be risky.

Positioning flights with paid professional aircrew ok, passengers? Maybe not.

[JMD352000]

It seems that most on this forum are ignoring some facts.

Russian airspace and now Polish airspace are open.:ok:

President Medvedev is en route to Poland for the funeral. :ok:

Have a look at the excellent domodedovo.ru web site (English available)

If the Russian president flies, it might be ok for everyone else to fly. Some attemps have been made on this forum by courageous people to highlight Russian experience with flying in an ash cloud environment but interestingly these comments are usually ignored or very simply commented.

I have the feeling that I am reading a Union forum about eachother's rights and obligations rather than a scientific/engineering debate on how to tackle/deal with the problem.

On the Polish crash forum there was a lot of contributions from Russian pilots, it would be interesting to see their opinion if someone knows how to link up with them. (Please spare me the many derogative/non PC comments about Russians, they are childish at best).

[ALTSELGREEN]

Just been reported that the upper level winds are unlikely to change direction until later in the week.......:uhoh:

[Leo Hairy-Camel]

Stereotyping you thing, Admiral? I rather think it a nationally identifiable characteristic, something along the lines of German efficiency and fondness for logic. In the case of the Dutch, though, their reflexive recourse to arrogance may well be considered cautionary. Something for the thought processes of KLM passengers, perhaps.

[flyhelico]

yes yes, open the sky.
who cares about safety these days!!!!??...up to passengers to take the risk or not

pilots who pay to fly (pf2) would be glad to fly with passengers despite geting sick or catching cancer!

i dont see the difference of risk when flying in ash or with P2f pilots!

[Ptkay]

Whole Central and Northern Europe deep in the "ash hole"....

:)

[WojtekSz]

hi Global Warrior
lets get some facts straight:
Theres too much going on here that is just too vague. For a start the area of volcanic ash is a best guess anyway based on a model that has no input with actual location of volcanic ash being as it cant be measured. Therefore, it could be far far more wide spread than we think, or significantly less wide spread.see the data from MetOffice - seems that they may have some real data gathered all the time

Thats fine people but the notion that suddenly an aeroplane is going to fall out of the sky if a test flight is conducted is just ludicrous. For those that have even bothered to examine the BA9 incident, even they, after flying in the most concentrated part of the ash cloud, got all 4 engines running again once they descended out of it so comments like.. got the engines relighted and immediately landed in Jakarta for major engine overhaul. Why did they not continue further to Australia as planned? if SOP were obeyed then why not obeying them now?

One "aeronautical engineer" is wheeled out after a flight in a Dornier, that BTW DID NOT CRASH and says that he wouldnt want to put airliners up there. Sadly he has lost all credibility as it was HIS PERSONAL OPINION released immediately after he returned........ there had not been any time to examine the data recovered. Maybe he smelt sulphur and that clouded his judgement but firing off like that was nothing more than him getting his 15 minutes of fame.he is a scientist working on air pollution so has some credibility. He had some scientific equipment up there with him and took measurements that can be easily read and analyzed. When asked for opinion he gave it.
Nobody says that any jet flying into the ash cloud will fall out of the sky - it will suffer some damage which may be even catastrophic if damage is slowly progressing over time spent in the area with ash. So far nobody has technology to measure this and hence the reluctance to say its OK to fly commercial jets.

...Therefore we should start slowly and with certain restrictions in place and then move on once data has been gathered. and this is exactly what is going on. Just remeber that the volcano started Apr 14th only nad we are talking about the decisons valid for (almost) whole Europe with several big and may smaller operators.

So a start could be, for example, to let 4 engined aircraft operate, within the assumed affected area in Daylight hours only and outside of visible cloud and then inspect said aircraft for engine damage on a continual basis and as we build a knowledge base, move forward.(1) the ash is deadly concentration is hardly visible, in harmful concentration is NOT visible
(2) the additional time for precise inspection would make the flight shedules go bust so the new schedules would be needed. How much time is needed to work out a new schedules for all interested? A month?

Scaremongering isnt going to help anybody and neither is bravado. Moving forward, step by small step will allow us all to learnyou are absolutely right on this
BUT with ad personam remarks you do not help to reach conclusions and start to work together on finding a solution

[nyt]

On the news: all french airports closed
then you look at Aéroport Toulouse-Blagnac (http://www.toulouse.aeroport.fr/static/index.html)
and see that 3 long-haul flights to the west are scheduled and boarding..

[BDiONU]

For those that have even bothered to examine the BA9 incident, even they, after flying in the most concentrated part of the ash cloud, got all 4 engines running again once they descended out of it so comments like
My comment based on BA9 dropping from 37,000 to 12,000 before a relight i.e. an unplanned, unstoppable descent of 25,000. Who didn't read the report?
<snip>so when HEATHROW DIRECTOR says.....not with me on board..... GOOD get back to West Drayton and do the job that you are actually qualified to comment on :ok:

Hhhmmm, HD is an ATCO (retired) and hence an expert on aviation safety, so very well qualified to answer. Oh and London Terminal Control hasn't been based at West Drayton for many years now. There are only 2 ACC's in UK, one at Swanwick and one at Prestwick :ok:

BD

[Bruce Wayne]

It's already pretty obvious that flying through it for a few minutes on the way up/down won't have a big effect unless the ash is really concentrated.

Simponpro,

Any ideas what the LPC and HPC sections are in an engine?

Here's a clue, Low Pressure Compressor Section, High Pressure Compressor section.

[Coireall]

Leo,
Please do not be so insulting to the Dutch.
Sooner rather than later, someone is going to have to take the responsibility for the decision to permit flight through or above a very diluted volcanic ash cloud. That will be an unenviable decision and hopefully it will be based on scientific, measured facts. The Dutch have been the brave ones to take that first step to collecting data for the basis of that decision.
The acceptable level of dilution and distance/time from the source volcano have yet to be decided, BUT THAT DECISION TO FLY WILL HAVE TO BE MADE. The alternative of keeping all commercial aviation grounded for all of whatever the future duration of the Icelandic volcanic activity is simply not imaginable (by me at any rate).
For example, BA 9 still flies over the volcanoes of Indonesia and the low level volcanic cloud is easily visible from altitude when overflying. Remember also that the KLM 744 in Dec 89 and the BA9 in Jun 82 were both relativly close to the source volcanoes and flew through the plumes which were not visible due to darkness.
The examination of the flight data from the KLM trial flight should also include a microscopic examination of the bleed systems and also the surfaces of the windscreens and fuselage. We need to know what was the concentration levels of ash in the trial airspace. We need data urgently to build a knowledgebase of acceptable dilution to the ash cloud. In addition, we need an industry analysis of the level of acceptable risk involved in flying in clear air above the ash. The current ash cloud warning states that there is no significant risk above FL350. Collecting data now will prevent the decision being based solely on financial pressure. That pressure should rightly be feared by each one of us.
Looking ahead, the alternative of staying on the ground until the volcano stops spewing could spell economic disaster for European Union states not to mention the demise of many European airlines.

[anotherthing]

TRC makes a point in post 892 that I mentioned earlier and that a lot of people seem to fail to grasp.

Well before the eruptions, airlines were doing everything in their power to reduce the cost index of flights and routes - some by taking what would be deemed to be extreme measures to reduce weight and cost (changing size of in flight magazines, changing uniforms to lighter material, taking away little freebies such as the little bags of nuts they used to hand out free with drinks etc).

Some of these measures may seem extreme, of little consequence and maybe even ridiculous, but multiplied over many sectors, it was felt by the 'bean counters' that it would make a significant difference.

BA and many other carriers are taking the steps to cancel well in advance of (in the UK) any announcement by NATS. This is being done partly because logistically it makes sense, however they also must feel that it is justified.

I for one do not believe that aircraft are going to fall out of the sky in vast numbers, however I believe that there will be damage done to engines and airframes etc which will be amplified over many flight hours.

So I suppose my question is to you, the pilots who want to go flying in multi million pound (or dollar) aircraft (that you do not have to pay to maintain, fix or replace) - do you think it is wise for airlnes to fly bearing in mind that any profits they make may well be wiped out and indeed may end up costing them more through the cost of replacing parts etc - some of which may be major?

Airlines will need to weigh up the possibility that engine life may be dramatically reduced etc. We are not talking about mass hysteria, aircraft falling out of the sky, but purely flight economics?

Research into acceptable levels of ash concentration for flight have not been extensively researched because there has not been the need nor the opportunity before - most eruptions and consequent ash clouds have affected areas with very little air traffic - cetainly not the density found over western Europe.

I'm sure over the coming days when more data is gathered there will be a relaxation when more understanding is gained, but until such time, from a safety and financial point of view, it is probably prudent for the ban to continue.

[mr.777]

Eh? How the hell does that follow?

I would say that him being an ATCO for 40 odd years allows his opinion to be as equally valid as yours. Or do you have so little regard for our profession?

[BDiONU]

Eh? How the hell does that follow?
ATCO's number 1 priority is safety and safety is taught and involved in everything we do :)

BD

[brooksjg]

'Collecting data now will prevent the decision being based solely on financial pressure. That pressure should rightly be feared by each one of us.'

Here, here. Metereology, physics, chemistry first. Economics second!!!

Opinions based on nothing at all: LAST.

[Sober Lark]

"demise of many European airlines."

Indeed it will test the proverb "Ill blows the wind that profits nobody". After the grounding of 9/11 many said the actions of some were a stroke of genius. This event no doubt creates opportunity for some in the aviation world.

Although I wouldn't have used graphic scare tactics to drive home a point least it comes back and bites me in the ass.

[MagnusP]

BDiONU: Spot on with the last post. I suspect some of the gung-ho heroes here don't actually mean it when, flight after flight, they come on and say "Ladies and Gentlemen, your safety is our number one priority, so if you would give the cabin crew your full attention . . ."

[Nemrytter]

Hello JetII

[vanHorck]

Excuse my arrogance....

"something along the lines of German efficiency and fondness for logic"

The Germans too are flying at the moment. Lufthansa too is doing test flights and intending to reposition some 747's from Munich to Frankfurt in preparation of flight resumption

[BDiONU]

Perhaps ATC should have a standard greeting for each aircraft that calls up "Welcome to London Centre we're here for the expedituous routing of your aircraft, but primarily for your safety" :}

BD

[no sig]

While we have an ongoing eruption with unknown and varying levels of ash concentrations through out European airspace, how can we resume normal operations? A few isolated test flights by KL/LH can not give a true indication of the impact of cummulative effects on aircraft and engines operating day in day out, 8 sectors a day into varying level of ash concentrations. Are we for example, going to boroscope every engine after each day of flying? No we couldn't.

As suggested in an earlier post, it might be that we need to conduct a series of test flights across Europe in a research context and evaluate the cumulative effects and establish just what is the risk. Exposure time x hazard = % risk. When we consider thousands of flights per day someone somewhere will find the most hazardous area and suffer as a result. We don't want that.

[Admiral346]

Camel: Yes, stereotyping I call it what goes on in your mind. Not my way of thinking. You call the Germans fond of logic? Just look at the logical mistake I made in my post and how Simonpro corrected me, rightfully so.
I fly with lots of Dutch FOs, and none of them are arrogant or willing to take unjustified risks out of overestimating their own abilities...
Don't you think it makes you (personally, not your people - where you from anyways?) appear arrogant?

Simonpro: Of course you are right to point out my mistake - what I meant to say is that the data for the mathematical calculations the predictions are based on are missing. No data has been collected from the atmosphere, not here in Germany. That is if the papers are reporting correctly, but I do assume they do. The DLR (germ. aerospce agency) testplane will not be done getting fitted with the necessary probes until Monday evening. So all the real data that exists comes from the test and repositioning flights - with no findings.

Nic

[pilotmike]

Quote:
One "aeronautical engineer" is wheeled out after a flight in a Dornier, that BTW DID NOT CRASH and says that he wouldnt want to put airliners up there. Sadly he has lost all credibility as it was HIS PERSONAL OPINION released immediately after he returned........ there had not been any time to examine the data recovered. Maybe he smelt sulphur and that clouded his judgement but firing off like that was nothing more than him getting his 15 minutes of fame.

he is a scientist working on air pollution so has some credibility.

Global Warrior: You might wish to be aware that 'he' is Genghis the Engineer, a PPRuNe moderator, so he will probably delete your post if he thinks it is YOU who is 'firing off' with 'clouded judgement', and that you have 'lost all credibility' in an attempt for your '15 minutes of fame'.

As for the rest of the cr@p you trot out as fact - just were do we start? In your own words, everyone needs to learn....... GOOD get back to [your hole?] and do the job that you are actually qualified to comment on

[BDiONU]

I've been a Licensed Aircraft Maintenance Engineer for over 40 years. Would I say I'm an expert on 'aviation safety' - of course not.
But presumably you're taught safety in dismantling and putting together engines. Therefore, in my book, you're an expert on aviation engines. ATCOs are at the sharp end of aviation safety.

BD

[Lazy Gun]

Stereotyping you thing, Admiral? I rather think it a nationally identifiable characteristic, something along the lines of German efficiency and fondness for logic. In the case of the Dutch, though, their reflexive recourse to arrogance may well be considered cautionary. Something for the thought processes of KLM passengers, perhaps.

This is hardly constructive! You could at least try to keep your posts on topic and if possible try and add a little professionalism. These kinds of comments are pathetic and useless.

LG

[Gualala]

Has the givernment done anything to get the UK tech experts together on what is the low ash risk threshold. The UK may have more expertise on this than any other country: BA, other airlines, RR, the Met Office Unit (VAAC), CAA, NATS and no doubt some other UK experts.

I'd hope they are all meeting first thing tomorrow, if not already.

There seems a big silence.

Of course you could do this on a European level - but you can't fly anywhere!

[CargoOne]

I'm just wondering, do most of European pilots here sincerly hope they can continue safely sit at home (or down route) for a another week or two, and still get paid?

Do reality check: no flights on Monday, most of you on the street by the end of the week latest. Throw a CV to the nearest McDonalds - I've heard they hiring on first came first served basis.

Does anybody know if Wright Bros had scientifically sound data, appropriate testing and insurance coverage for their flight in 1903? Or they were sitting on their arses comfortably, awaiting paycheck and permit to fly?

[sleepypilot]

just out, translation by Goggle translator, aint perfect..

ENAC Press Releases
VOLCANIC CLOUD: ENAC orders ENAV reconnaissance flight through ITALIAN airspace

ENAC (National Civil Aviation Authority) has authorized the ENAV (Italian Company for Flight Assistance) to conduct a reconnaissance flight this morning to check the status of Italian airspace directly affected by the volcanic cloud from Iceland .
The flight is made with a Cessna Citation 2 from Department of Radiomisure Enav, with crew commanded by the same company Flight Operations Manager.
The route of the mission arranged by ENAC ENAV provides the flight has departed from Ciampino airport in the morning today, the continuation of the aircraft on the route Bolsena-Ferrara, with stabilization at various altitudes and an approach to the airport of Venice Tessera, go around, then an approach to Milan Linate airport, from where, also without landing, will return to Ciampino at various altitudes through Italian airspace along the Pisa and Grosseto route.
After this reconnaissance flight, the Cessna Citation 2 Enav be conducted in the maintenance hangar for Ciampino to be carefully inspected, the engines will be excavated and analyzed to verify their status and the presence of wear particles of volcanic cloud even motor oil.
The President of ENAC, Vito Riggio, also asked the Head of Department for Civil Defence, Guido Bertolaso, to be available as soon as possible - through the Italian Institute of Volcanology - special sensors capable of detecting and measuring the presence of volcanic ash high, not detectable by radar. This is to collect as soon as further data and analysis elements can complement those of the bulletin and the European Community level mathematical models provided by Eurocontrol.
Rome, 18/04/2010

[John47]

apparently currently airborne
KLM7457
Callsign: KLM7457
Flightnr:
Reg: PH-BGI
Hex: 484B90
Model: Boeing 737-7K2 (B737)
Airline: KLM
Lat: 53.4672
Lon: 5.8419
Alt: 19000 feet (5791 m)
Ground speed: 340 knots
(630 km/h / 391 mph)
Track: 264°
Radar: NET2

[lear60fellow]

Number 1 in aviation is SAFETY, let´s wait until some results are clear so we all can get back to our job, I´m the first one interested on a clear and positive solution. But if this volcano is going to be around for a while then I will think on getting my Zeppelin TR soon, it´s the future?

[FEHERTO]

Dear all, the closure of the air space is a financial hell for the aviation industry. But on the other side I am shocked about the comments of some "professionals" here, who want to fly immediately.
First, the engines are one problem. Damage is highly possible, a complete loss is a much lower risk, but cannot be ruled out.
Second, we have a lot of other dangers, from air data system to give wrong indications up to the damage on the aircraft paint and others. Remember the Potomac Disaster, created by three problems (wrong cockpit indications giving less thrust, a contaminated wing and a pilot having no training and no idea).
The same is here. Too many factors are unknown that we cannot risk to send a full packed aircraft up. And aircraft will be always on the MTOW to get the chaos ended as quick as possible. If KLM makes a test flight with a nearly empty aircraft is one thing, but a full packed 777 on the MTOW going maybe two hours through the cloud stream is a different story.
The major problem is the uncertain, as we have not enough data. And the closure is therefore the only logical consequence, as hard as it is.

[MPH]

Crux of the matter is, whether or not KLM, LH or indead anyone else who want´s to venture out and try out the presence or not of the volacanic ash. Are their findings valid or suficient for the authorities to make judgment and allow air traffic to flow once again into European airspace? I have a feeling that the meteo and related authorities are been put in doubt

[backofthedrag]

Mark my words. This is gross overkill . The cloud will remain. Flights will resume. Nothing will happen .VAAC have their 15 minutes of fame and return to their final salary pensions.
Millions pissed around 100s millions lost.

[4 engines 4 longhaul]

Sorry to butt in but heres a flightglobal article showing Finnish F-18 engine checks revealing melted ash in the engine. Have KLM boroscoped their engines?

Clicky (http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2010/04/16/340727/pictures-finnish-f-18-engine-check-reveals-effects-of-volcanic.html)

[james solomon]

German carriers lead backlash over volcanic ash closures (http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2010/04/18/340746/german-carriers-lead-backlash-over-volcanic-ash-closures.html)

[rojakof]

I think, that if KLM and LH can prove that they can fly safely every day that they were not allowed to by authorities, then they can foward all financial claims to those authorities !!.

Smart move on legal /financial aspects MR Hartman, CEO KLM and LH CEO

[MathFox]

The bigger issue is that the meteorologists have a pretty good picture on where the ash cloud is, they also say which areas have the higher dust densities and which areas have low density of contamination. The issue is that there is little information on how planes react... There were two data points: Going through visible cloud is bad (causes flame out of the engines); flying in the background ash concentration causes normal wear. Only recently the Finish air force provided a third data point: flying through moderate ashes may require extra maintenance to the engine.

I am all in favour of getting more information on actual ash concentrations and the actual wear and contamination it causes to a plane flying through it. We should get to numbers like "flying for 10 hours through concentration x of volcanic ashes requires an engine inspection".

[XPMorten]

If this lasts, and history of this volcano indicates it will, we will see
the first airlines go under in a few days. In a few months, most
european airlines will be owned by their governments.

So, expect desperate airlines to put enormous pressure on the
authority's to get back in the air.

The airline industry already had a bad year in 2009 so very few
airlines have reserves. Low cost airlines like RYR will be the
ones that can last the longest.

Good luck to you all!

[vanHorck]

Progress of the KL flight can be tracked here (Amsterdam)
Casper - live aircraft tracking (http://casper.frontier.nl/eham/)

[Admiral346]

I do believe that flying through a dense ash cloud is extremly hazardous and should not be attemted on purpose.

I do believe that flying through the low density ash now over Europe will cause build up inside the engines over time and will require more frequent overhauls and cause more cost to the airlines.

I do not believe that it is unjustifiably risky to fly passengers around while avoiding the high concentration area of ashes. It will only cost more money.

Proof: Test flights conducted by LH and KLM, and the F18 engines of finnish airforce, which are polluted, but did not fail while hitting the initial high density clouds last week.

If the Company calls me tomorrow, I will pack my things and go flying.

Nic

[BOAC]

One vital question in all this is where will the insurers sit if an airline starts operating again? "Err OK KLM - all risks except volcanic ash covered"

I once was told an interesting story by an aviation insurance broker abou KLM who one year said to their insurers "we've had xxx years accident free with you, we'd like to talk about a lower premium". Insurers apparently said, "It will be twice this year's, we work on statistics and you are overdue for a big one".

The following year? You've guessed it.

[Global Warrior]

Quote: Pilotmike
One "aeronautical engineer" is wheeled out after a flight in a Dornier, that BTW DID NOT CRASH and says that he wouldnt want to put airliners up there. Sadly he has lost all credibility as it was HIS PERSONAL OPINION released immediately after he returned........ there had not been any time to examine the data recovered. Maybe he smelt sulphur and that clouded his judgement but firing off like that was nothing more than him getting his 15 minutes of fame.
he is a scientist working on air pollution so has some credibility.
Global Warrier: You might wish to be aware that 'he' is Genghis the Engineer, a PPRuNe moderator, so he will probably delete your post if he thinks it is YOU who is 'firing off' with 'clouded judgement', and that you have 'lost all credibility' in an attempt for your '15 minutes of fame'.

As for the rest of the ********* you trot out as fact - just were do we start? In your own words,
Quote:
everyone needs to learn....... GOOD get back to [your hole?] and do the job that you are actually qualified to comment on


i think the tone of your retort is totally inappropriate.

Just because he's a moderator..... doesnt make him right and if HE feels any offence, i apologise to him

[Tinytim]

It seems to me that whilst all pronouncements from NATS and government are in terms calculated to not cause panic with an expectation of an early resolution the fact is that no one has a clue how long this will go on for. It seems to me as likely that the matter will resolve in days as it will in weeks..based on the various articles in todays press from Vulcanologists.

An already weakened industry is being crucified and reserves depleted.So the question I have is how long will this go on before drastic action has to be taken to preserve the airlines?......and who will be the first casualties? No business can survive without revenue.

Our society is so dependant on this industry as a whole that whilst the green lobby might welcome an armageddon scenario that sees the demise of the carriers as we know them today the fact is that it is unthinkable that government should not take steps to preserve it...just in the same way they did to preserve the banks...

If I was Willie Walsh I would be having some serious "what if" conversations with government as BA must surely be amongst the least well placed if this continues. Ironically based on disclosed cash reserves our favourite Irish carrier is probably in a better position than any.....

These are indeed worrying times.

[justawanab]

Cubbie wrote:

Perhaps you arent aware there are proceedures for encountering volcanic ash, there are proceedures for an engine failure, for blown tires on take off, a whole manner of dangerous events which can occur everyday.

Yes I'm fully aware of that and it's great comfort to me when I fly.
I too have procedures for when I encounter extreme weather situations while I'm driving my car, but I won't venture out in the middle of a cyclone.

As SLF I would hope that my well trained flight crew would similarly prefer to avoid putting me and my fellow passengers into a potentially dangerous situation rather than just take the chance that their procedures will be sufficient to handle any problems later.

I accept that you have procedures for handling engine failures that may result from the ingestion of volcanic ash however given the often severe effects of gravity on unpowered aircraft, surely it's more prudent to avoid the possibility of that happening in the first place.

I'd also venture to suggest that, given the gung-ho, fly at all cost, attitude demonstrated by yourself and a few other people on here it's probably a good thing that they haven't been the ones who get to decide.

[CaptSeeAreEmm]

Translated from Norweigan using Google.

No-fly testify paranoia

An experienced SAS captain said that fly to the Northern Lights of Norway must be said to be the century's greatest hysteria, and believe this evidence of paranoia.


Reviews come from an SAS captain with 35 years experience at the controls.

The Captain Per Gunnar Stensvaag with 35 years experience as a pilot, which comes with the critical krtikken to what he calls the government's paranoia, according nordlys.no

- This fly is the greatest hysteria in our century, "said Stensvaag to the newspaper.

He points out, among other things, that it is important to distinguish between the right to fly over a vulkansky and the smoke coming from the volcano on the Island.

- Inside the cloud, it is a quantity of heavy particles that can be dangerous if you fly directly over the volcano, but this applies in the immediate vicinity of the volcano. What we have to Europe's smoke, and there is no one who can prove that it is dangerous. We often have black snow on the Eastern because of industrial pollution from Germany, without closing off the airspace for that reason, says Stensvaag - who tries to draw a picture of the situation;

- If you piss in a glass of water, no one would drink it. But if someone piss in Maridalsporten Lake, rods are not of the water in all of Oslo.

SAS captain believes mydighetene have used the story of British Airways Flight 9, as an excuse to use power to act at any cost.

- It is all too easy to introduce a ban, "he nordlys.no

Stensvaag also refers to that in Norway have helicopters that are equipped to fly into the desert sand, rising, but the same heliloptrene can not be used in a Northern Norwegian last year in nicely and klært weather to help a man who is about to die.

Captain also argues that he has broad support for his view of this, many within the aviation in Norway.

[Landroger]

A couple of observations, since there are no aeroplanes worth talking about. What, please, is a BOROSCOPE which many of you seem to be using? I am an engineer - not an aero one, but a horny handed son of toil nevertheless - and I have seen and know about BORESCOPES. :)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TfRTqD6Jc8Y (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TfRTqD6Jc8Y)

People like me put borescopes into complex kit like engines, to examine them without the time and cost of tearing them apart. As an aside, doctors put them up your bottom to see how your machinery is working too! :eek:

On the thread subject itself, I think Orionsbelt made a cogent observation - no pun intended - when he said:

1 Has any research aircraft / UAV flown and measured the concentration of dust in the different areas around the volcano. I fail to understand how an area from 85 east to 55 west and 70 north to 40 south can all have dangerous concentrations of dust. As an astronomer last night the sky at my home in Essex was the clearest I've seen it in months.

The bit about astronomy is probably more telling than many people realise. Furthermore, far from knowinjg what the maximum safe (Define safe in these circumstances?) concentration of ash is, do we actually know what the ambient concentration of ash over the affected area was? It seems to me Icelandic volcanos have been errupting for ever, but this is the first time such a dramatic reaction has been taken.

Italy have a couple of quite notorious volcanos that haven't stopped errupting in my lifetime. What is the ambient ash concentration and its altitude profile of Italian airspace and what, if anything, is the effect on aeroplanes the fly regularly in that region? As has also been said, there has never been a time when the background airborne ash concentration has been zero. The must be ash contamination in varying concentrations all over the world.

The ash from Mount St. Helens circulated round the entire globe, to my certain knowledge, thus dispersing collosal quantities of ash into our or the currently effected airspace. What was the procedure and affect then? What were the long terrm engine maintenance effects of Mount St. Helens?

One flight of the Dornier - albeit scientifically equipped - and one flight of the KLM 738, does not a research programme make. I have absolutely no idea of how much European Airlines are collectively losing per minute, but I bet they could afford to sacrifice more than one airframes worth of engines to do some much more intensive research.

And please don't trot out BA009 and the others. Orionsbelt has shown that there simply isn't enough up there to make aeroplanes plunge out of the sky. Wreck their engines by any engineering standards for sure, but not enough to make them quit 'on the job'. For that you need Canada Geese. :eek: But if, as is suggested, this goes on for very much longer, serious and quite expensive research needs to be done. Especially as, we are constantly reminded, that the much more volatile Katla might be nudged into action by the current one.

Roger.

[tcmel]

Volcano webcam shows a very quiet/clear Eyjafjallajökull
http:
//eldgos.mila.is
/eyjafjallajokull-fra-thorolfsfelli/

The actual mountain is in the back behind the real clouds, but if it was erupting with any force, you'd see some smoke, etc? If you can't see it from 50m, I'd say it's probably not going to hit the continent...

[Mister Geezer]

The flights that have been carried out by KLM and LH can hardly be classified as test flights. They have merely taken a snapshot of the conditions and found that there was no hazard to those particular flights only. It is laughable for them to use those 'findings' (used loosely) and base their proposed operational program on that.

Even if airspace was opened again, should any dense ash clouds track towards Europe and with the best intentions of getting aircraft moving, the slot and flow implications would be horrendous in avoiding the worst of the airborne deposits.

I am sure the insurance companies will have something to say about this too!

If KLM/LH manage to pull the wool over the eyes of the media, public and worst of all the industry, it will be rather worrying day!

[Rusland 17]

If I was Willie Walsh I would be having some serious "what if" conversations with government as BA must surely be amongst the least well placed if this continues.Press reports this morning suggest quite the opposite. Simon Calder, writing in the Independent, says that all British and Irish airlines have healthy cash reserves, with British Airways having a particularly large cash pile in anticipation of a prolonged strike by cabin crew.

[canard68]

How long would this have to go on for before pilot currency becomes an issue?

[Buckster]

tcmel - thats as it seems on the webcams, but most blogs etc - seem to think the volcano is as active as its ever been - just local conditions mean its not so easy for us to see

[IslandPilot]

As the North Atlantic is now devoid of air traffic I am wondering if the consequent lack of temperature and spot wind reports usually given in oceanic position reports has affected the accuracy of forcasting for the North Atlantic area and predictions of the areas affected by ash .

Will loss of this info have any appreciable effect on the progs?

[A-3TWENTY]

Hi,
Or ultimately , open the skies only during the day since we can avoid more dense areas ,and close at night.

A-3TWENTY

[Deaf]

flying through moderate ashes may require extra maintenance to the engine.

It's not just the maintenace it's also getting the parts. Things like turbine blades:

- Cannot be knocked up the local foundry/machine shop, they require specialized casting equipment for directional solidification/single crystal.

- The supply is tailored to 10k+ hours life

- The stock held is taiored to 10k+hours life

If the life is reduced to ~ 100hrs from a single exposure (as the Finnish results suggest) then one exposure + 1 week normal (no dust) short haul then AOG for years waiting for bits

[GINER]

BBC News - Flight ban 'not over-reacting' say Wiltshire scientists (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/wiltshire/8628028.stm)

[judge11]

NATS has been the 'face' to the media of the UK's decision to close its airspace in the face of this unprecedented event. I would sugest that this has been been politically expedient for the higher echelons of govenment and, perhaps, the airlines (initially) to have NATS as the 'fall' guy as and when blame begins to be bandied around at a later date as will inevitable happen.

I am of the opinion that there has been massive over-kill in this matter and that tactical discretion to fly or not should have been made available to the operators.

It was always held that air traffic control provides a 'service'. In my experience the ATC system has become more 'executive' than 'advisory' over the past 25 years but that is a topic for another debate. However, the service that NATS and the Met office should have provided was constantly updated information on the location and concentrations of the ash.

Of course, NATS states that it has reacted to ICAO procedures and this whole affair is reminiscent of the 'liquids' ban. It happened to the UK and the rest of the world has been forced to comply irrespective of the threat (or complete lack of it).

I would suggest that there should be a complete re-think/re-write of this ICAO procedure as and when the crisis is over. The economic consequences of this blanket, unthinking policy has been dire. Safety, of course, is paramount but I am positive that many air services could have been operated since Thursday with no risk to crew or passengers whatsoever.

[fireflybob]

NATS has been the 'face' to the media of the UK's decision to close its airspace in the face of this unprecedented event. I would sugest that this has been been politically expedient for the higher echelons of govenment and, perhaps, the airlines (initially) to have NATS as the 'fall' guy as and when blame begins to be bandied around at a later date as will inevitable happen.


judge11, quite agree with your comments here. I touched on this aspect early on in this thread.

Also, many operators have a/c and crews stranded away from base. As part of the evaluation why not permits selected a/c to return to base as a ferry? I strongly suspect that all these flights would operate without incident. This would ease the pain for when operations start, return a/c to engineering bases and mitigate costs of parking etc and keeping crews in hotac etc

Of course we should take into account what the boffins are telling us but as pilots we are used to evaluating relative risk. If you want 100% safety then keep the aeroplanes in the hangar! Even the BA flight landed safely in 1982, albeit with substantial damage.

[molluscan]

Replying to #906 ( "Worth just noting this morning ...it is possible to fly between the islands in the Channel Islands where both Aurigny & Blue Islands are continuing to operate their schedules" ) , there is a mad twist to this story - there now is no way in or out of CI Zone for VFR GA flghts. On Thursday it was closed (no IFR or SVFR), but on Friday common sense was applied and a VFR lane class D for VFR created by NOTAM to 50North. I flew to London intending to return today but now some jobsworth has decided that they didnt have the power to change airspace after all so now no VFR movements in or out of the whole CI zone, while GA and commercial flights continue within the zone. This is just complete madness with regulations and ar** covering taking precedence over any real analysis of safety issues.
I am on this forum as a way of making my own assessment of risk to piston engines at low level and I make my own decision whether safe to fly as I have to with every flight.
What is lacking is proper information on 1) what are the particle concentrations grams/m3 at different levels. 2) what is a safe concentration for jet engines and for piston engines. The information may be poor but it needs the best scientists in the field to come up with best estimates. If it is left to regulators just applying a 'precautionary principle then we may not fly for months.

[Sunfish]

Could we please understand that there is no Administrative fix to this problem?

You cannot make this matter go away by redefining regulations.

What we have here is a straight forward engineering matter: Fly through volcanic ash and you are going to damage the engines.

The damage may simply reduce the life of the engines by a factor perhaps of Ten, bankrupting the airline some years from now, or result in catastrophic failure, killing passengers, until sanctimonious news media stop talking about "mercy flights" and start talking about "cowboy airlines" risking their passengers lives.

I have a turbine blade in front of me....

[Squawk_ident]

AFR 380S just airborne LFPG . Measure mission. F-HEPB, brand new 320
Up to FL180 . Going Toulouse

[Landroger]

It's not just the maintenace it's also getting the parts. Things like turbine blades:

- Cannot be knocked up the local foundry/machine shop, they require specialized casting equipment for directional solidification/single crystal.

- The supply is tailored to 10k+ hours life

- The stock held is taiored to 10k+hours life

If the life is reduced to ~ 100hrs from a single exposure (as the Finnish results suggest) then one exposure + 1 week normal (no dust) short haul then AOG for years waiting for bits


True, up to a point Deaf, but that presupposes no other changes made in a changed environment. The local blacksmith will not be called upon, but the engine manufacturers might call upon trusted subcontractors to produce turbine blades at ten times the rate previously. With, one would hope, some economies of scale.

Also, if engines were not to be use limited by operating area, the manufacturers might divert some effort to making either; much more damage resistant components or, forget about curing the problem and merely fix the symptoms by making much, much cheaper turbine assemblies which are all but 'disposable' after so many hours?

Nobody said future costs were going to go down after all this. :confused:

Roger.

[911slf]

What is an acceptable accident rate? This link Accident statistics (http://www.planecrashinfo.com/cause.htm) indicates a one in five million risk per flight of a passenger on one of the best airlines being involved in a fatal accident, rising to one in 160,000 for one of the worst airlines. If the ash cloud were to continue for a year, how much extra risk would airline captains accept, if staying on the ground meant failure of their company? When I used to fly hang gliders I was content to accept a fatal accident rate of one per 10,000 flying hours - but I don't think I would want anywhere near that risk as a fare paying passenger.:hmm:

[tcmel]

http:
//www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation/vaac/data
/VAG_1271591498.png

Looks rather hopeful, per the most recent map/remarks
Assuming that in the very near future, everything above FL200 is "clear" and We on the ground can't "see" anything, it would make it rather difficult for governing bodies to argue the matter.
In logic-land, anyway.

[fireflybob]

mollChannel Island airspace
Replying to #906 ( "Worth just noting this morning ...it is possible to fly between the islands in the Channel Islands where both Aurigny & Blue Islands are continuing to operate their schedules" ) , there is a mad twist to this story - there now is no way in or out of CI Zone for VFR GA flghts. On Thursday it was closed (no IFR or SVFR), but on Friday common sense was applied and a VFR lane class D for VFR created by NOTAM to 50North. I flew to London intending to return today but now some jobsworth has decided that they didnt have the power to change airspace after all so now no VFR movements in or out of the whole CI zone, while GA and commercial flights continue within the zone. This is just complete madness with regulations and ar** covering taking precedence over any real analysis of safety issues.
I am on this forum as a way of making my own assessment of risk to piston engines at low level and I make my own decision whether safe to fly as I have to with every flight.
What is lacking is proper information on 1) what are the particle concentrations grams/m3 at different levels. 2) what is a safe concentration for jet engines and for piston engines. The information may be poor but it needs the best scientists in the field to come up with best estimates. If it is left to regulators just applying a 'precautionary principle then we may not fly for months.

moluscan, proof that the lunatics are running the asylum!

There is a difference between doing "things right" and doing "the right thing". Former is management, latter is leadership.

I cannot understand why Special VFR has been stopped in CTRs - or are they trying to stop operators departing/arriving these airports visually during the ban?

Get real - can anyone please tell me why a spamcan cannot be given a SVFR through these CTRs on a lovely day like today.

At a political level, we desparately need a peaceful revolution.

[PENKO]

Well, the Dutch BALPA is now voicing its disgust about the situation, their lead man saying 'I can see from here till Denmark, not a cloud in the sky'.

But from the officials...nothing. How can there be such a lack of information from the UK? What is happening? How much ash is there? How much ash is harmful? We hear nothing! Why? Who is afraid f what? What needs to be covered up?

Anther joke is that all VFR traffic is cancelled in Holland. Small aviation businesses are loosing money needlessly, except of course the helicopters needed for the camera work of some popular bike race. They get a permit to fly. Come on guys, this is a joke.

[80/-]

KLM appear to have carried out a number of test flights this morning. Condor have had a few flights into and out of Frankfurt and Air France have sennt up a A320 from Paris.

Are there any plans for test flights in the UK to take place ?

80/-

[daikilo]

Try comparing the airports open with the UK met office ash cloud forecasts. I see a remarkable resemblence although the forecast is altitude specific.

What I think we need, and probably sooner rather than later given that Iceland is a string of volvanoes, is a means to establish ash risk v. altitude and time. With what we know, I can understand DLH flying under the ash in dry air, I have difficulty understanding KLM apparently flying through it.

If I was head of an airline I would put up a lot of money into Qinetiq/Cranfield/DLR etc to take air samples a.s.a.p. We can't afford to wait for governments to get back to work on monday, and then have indecision from lack of info.

DLH, how high can yr Junkers climb? Maybe you can do it yourselves!

[XPMorten]

Icelandair are ferrying 4 757's from Reykjavik to Trondheim this afternoon.

M

[PENKO]

LOL@squawk.

Come on guys. Just charter an old Titan Airways 737. Let them fly for ten hours through the nastiest fluff of vulcanic smoke they can find. Inspect the engine et voila, make a decision. Whatever happens, that will be much cheaper than just sitting around and waiting, burning cash.

[BarbiesBoyfriend]

We just need some definition of how much ash can be suspended in a given quantity of air without becoming a problem.

If that concentration is zero ppm, then so be it. Ops must be suspended until every single ash particle has left the atmosphere.:rolleyes:

On the other hand, I suspect a safe limit could be established initially and an ongoing period of careful monitoring of aircraft engines and systems put in place to build a solid knowledge base.

I think the best, in fact the only, way to discover this with any degree of confidence, is to fly.

This ought to commence immediately so that we can quickly ascertain 'safe' ash levels and also to discover if particular models of a/c engine are more susceptible than others.

There may also be other problems, perhaps related to pitot static and other systems.

Again, we can't model this sort of thing. Aircraft will have to fly in it- empty if neccessary.

The data thus gathered will be useful should this sort of thing happen again.

[Re-Heat]

Judging by the ash film that has settled on my car overnight, you would have to be a total moron to be flying even a GA aircraft in these conditions.

It might not melt the ash in a GA aircraft, but the air filter will sure be blocked. Not to mention flying with carb heat on, bypassing the filter...

Demands for scientific validation are valid, but have to be realistic - do we have the means of sampling to the extent that is required?

The scientist on the Dornier was privy to the air sample readings that he presumably took. What additional validation are the nay-sayers actually seeking from him? He was hardly reactionary.

To those who think that operating in the mild ash conditions across Europe is sensible or safe, what engineer do you think would permit the despatch of that F18s with engine conditions visibly as they were? Engineering costs would far exceed the small benefit of moving a few people around, as only 1-2 sectors would be possible before engine overhauls!

The potential effect on jobs is understandable, but I get the impression that many posters to this board are either no involved in aviation at all or have no conservatism in the area of flight safety

[411A]

Well, the Dutch BALPA is now voicing its disgust about the situation, their lead man saying 'I can see from here till Denmark, not a cloud in the sky'.

But from the officials...nothing. How can there be such a lack of information from the UK? What is happening? How much ash is there? How much ash is harmful? We hear nothing! Why? Who is afraid f what? What needs to be covered up?

Anther joke is that all VFR traffic is cancelled in Holland. Small aviation businesses are loosing money needlessly, except of course the helicopters needed for the camera work of some popular bike race. They get a permit to fly. Come on guys, this is a joke.

What you are seeing is the general bankrupt thinking with regard to regulatory authorities in the EU, IE: we must decide to do nothing in order to protect you from yourself....the general dumbing down of society.
Time for a political change, I believe.
The airline companies and other clear thinking individuals have my sincere sympathy.

[daikilo]

Why ferry? Are they organising train connections?

I bet they know something we don't such as the volcano has gone quiet ..!

[80/-]

My wife assures me she saw a yellow jet overhead mid morning just north of the Brize Norton CTR

There was a DHL plane flown into Lasham this morning - probably that ?

80/-

[PENKO]

Re-Heat, I trust that you did not start your car because of all that ash? And if you did, your car is now totally wrecked? Or those ten KLM jets that are buzzing happily through the skies, they must be a write off according to you?

Please, come with facts. This speculation has cost already hundreds of millions.

[mr.777]

Please, come with facts

And what facts, exactly do YOU have?

[sabenaboy]

As per latest NOTAM:
OPERATORS ARE ADVISED THAT AFFECTED AREAS ARE CLOSED FOR VFR FLIGHTS. POLICE, SAR, HEMS, MANNED FREE BALLOON AND PIPELINE CONTROL FLIGHTS ARE EXEMPTED.

So no more light A/C, no more glider flights (not even winch launched!)

Of course pipeline control flights are not as vulnerable as other GA A/C!! :ugh:


I guess all your car engines will soon get stuck by all this ash??
Don't they realise that the gas burners of those manned free balloons can get clogged as well? :*

How long will this lunacy continue??

[126.9]

Sky-blue ash plume lurking over Western Europe this morning (Honey, bring me out another beer will you?) and causing extended days off to be added to my roster. :ok:

[ILS27LEFT]

If you are in the UK, please go out and check your car if it was parked outdoors last night.
The volcanic ash is clearly visible today and it looks very abrasive indeed, golden colour, very fine, never seen something like that in the UK before:mad:.:ok:

[brakedwell]

Judging by the ash film that has settled on my car overnight, you would have to be a total moron to be flying even a GA aircraft in these conditions.

I live twenty miles south of Gatwick and have been unable to find the slightest trace of ash on a car parked in the open or on the garden patio furniture. However, green tree pollen has made it's spring debut.

[Re-Heat]

Re-Heat, I trust that you did not start your car because of all that ash? And if you did, your car is now totally wrecked? Or those ten KLM jets that are buzzing happily through the skies, they must be a write off according to you?
My car operates with a huge margin under its performance limitations; aircraft engines tend to operate at higher RPMs and closer to engineering tolerances. I have the luxury of drifting to the side of a road in a car, which my aircraft do not.

411A - succinctly explain what the FAA did around the time of Mt St Helens please? And also around Anchorage. Do you come up with little other than asinine comments against Europeans or do you have anything substantive to add to the debate?

[Locked door]

Sabinaboy,

Car engines have air filters, jet engines do not.

The issue isn't that jet engines will fail because of the ash, but they will wear out in 100's of hours instead of 10000's of hours. In an industry that makes single digit operating margins in good years it would be unsustainable.

You might want to go flying now because you fear bankruptsy, but flying now may well have the same effect.

Lets wait until we see the results of the test flights.

LD

[XPMorten]

Correction, appears the flights are with Pax.
ETA (CET): 17.35 (1 acf), 18.35 (2 acf) og 19.35 (1 acf)

Also, SAS are considering 4 flights from the US east coast
to Trondheim today.

M