ISLE OF MAN

[Tonyq]

Interesting that FlyBe have pulled all their first rotations to each of LGW, MAN and LPL on some weekdays in January, so no way to get off the Island and into those major destinations until mid-morning.

Whilst this probably reflects historically low traffic levels at that time of year, in the past, there has been a tendency to pull flights in the middle of the day.

This looks like the start of their campaign to give the the big orange Directoress a few things to think about, for encouraging the big orange planes into Reynoldsway.

[Haven't a clue]

Online timetable shows all 0645 departures to LGW running except (bizarrely) 07Jan13 - so where do you get your info from? The 0950 dep disappears for most of Jan and part of Feb, but that was the case last year.

[LTNman]

APD must affect passenger numbers.

[Tonyq]

Online timetable is clearly not up to date. Check the booking engine for 18th and 25th January, as examples, on all three routes, and then say sorry!!:=

[Haven't a clue]

Aye - 0645 LGW has disappeared from booking engine Fri, Sat, Sun for at least the last two weekends of Jan. (Too many mouse clicks needed to check further).Recall they dropped the last Sat and early Sun rotations in Jan/Feb last year, but not the Fri. I'm guessing business types are using LCY reducing the early morning demand, and the orange thinghy has added so much cheaper capacity to take the weekend leisure pax.

So Tonyq apologies are certainly in order!

FlyBe are being squeezed by easyjet and by the hike in landing fees at LGW. Their USP has been frequency not price, and cancelling rotations, whilst economically sensible, destroys that USP.

Have to confess as a frequent London bound pax even I have already used the orange plane due to price, and I prefer to use LCY over LGW where the timing works. Not good news for FlyBe, or for the island generally I fear.

[STATSMAN]

Does flybe still hold the contact for the NHS,many of the passengers on the early LPL arrival are hospital bound.

[Tonyq]

The DH contract to LPL was tendered some months ago, but as far as I know, an award is still awaited. BE are continuing to provide the service in the interim.

Yes, just like you HAC, I am a very regular traveller to London, and over the last 4/5 years, I feel I've generally had a very good service and (by planning ahead) good value from BE. However, I have several round trips with EZY in the diary between now and Easter, even changing the pattern of my travel, simply because it was so cheap. So, although I'm very uncomfortable about where all this is leading for the IOM, money talks. I suspect I won't be alone.

BE will know they can do very little to make life difficult for EZY directly, so, as I said previously, I am sure that BE's tactic is scrapping those morning flights is designed to fire a shot across the bows of the airport management and politicians, for gambling with the future stability of services. An interesting period lies ahead.

[IOMspotter]

i guess BE are cutting back as EZY have announced IOM LGW is going daily in the spring:O

[Capt. Horrendous]

Reported locally that FLM and their Dorniers aren't flying any more. Any truth to this and if so why?

[IOMspotter]

rumour in the tea room safternoon that EZY next route to IOM will be a daily MAN -IOM starting in March:O

[pabely]

I thought this was already on record that if LGW works, MAN would be next? Will be dreadful at IOM if all depart at the same time though, already security can't cope on a Friday tea-time.

[manx crab]

And like a ghost town the rest of the day if Flybe pull out.

Reynolds should be stopped from gambling with our lifeline services to bolster her already enormous ego

[jetstreamtechrecords]

we hearing EZY launching a number of UK routes in March to :mad: Flybe. Flybe has had years of kicking the small UK airlines and gotten so big that EZY are making sure they dont get any bigger in UK. IOM MAN, EDI BHX, GLA BHX and LTN GLA all mentioned::E payback time.

[Capt. Horrendous]

Had it confirmed that FLM have ceased flying.

Manx Crab, there is motion in Tynwald to debate the Open Skies policy, and the potential it has to harm the IOM. Re your post above, I agree, but in fairmess to the AD, she is only executing the policies of her employer.

[fa2fi]

Well it can only be a good thing if EZY is turning up the heat on flyBE. They offer a consistent, reliable and affordable service. Things which flyBE lack!

[jetstreamtechrecords]

yep but they can do it with half the frequency so half the number of turns so half the number of jobs.:( Also BE do base locally so use hotels taxis pubs and spend locally. EZY are in and out and spend nowt locally so there is something at least in BEs favour. Eastern used to be the same when they were based on the rock.:uhoh:

[fa2fi]

Fair enough you have a point regarding frequencies but your average punter won't care about the other factors. Lower fares may stimulate demand and attract visitors who spend locally. People who couldn't otherwise afford to fly the route.

[AirLCY]

If Easyjet do start MAN as well, it is surely likely Flybe will have to reduce the base. Although great news for customers and cheap fares, there is not likely to be enough traffic at the right yield to sustain both carriers. Flybe is the right airline for the Island. Easyjet won't provide a good enough schedule.

[IOMspotter]

its true. The new EZY LGW route hasnt increased the IOM market just the lGW market . We see manxies who used to go to BHX SOU and LTN now on the EZY LGW and some students who used to get the boat & train or bus it down.:bored: Theres lots of good loads on EZYs LGW but some of the other routes are now awful.

Jestreamtech was right. Half the turns means half the jobs for handlers :{

[Centre cities]

Can not see IOM/BHX. Neither are Easy bases and are not likely to be. The timings would not be very good.

Centre cities

[manx crab]

As a pretty regular flyer, I value frequency and reasonable prices over just dead cheap and sparse frequency. It is not quiet the same as journeys in the UK where there are several similar alternatives

Easyjet have obviously hit Flybe hard in the IOM and Flybe have cut frequency already. Three planned trips in January that I had booked have been altered due to rotations being cancelled eg there are no early morning departures at all on a Friday most of January meaning I have to go the night before adding to the expense.

[Cloud1]

Those who believe EZY presence on the IOM will be a good thing have an extreme case of tunnel vision. For those who want a weekend away in London it will be fine but for those who rely on the services for business it will not.....and it could spark a bigger issue in the long run.

Flybes punctuality isnt that bad as regional airlines go - they are often quite high up on punctuality stats and indeed have been number 1 on certain routes. The problem is when they do suffer from disruption it seems to come in fits and starts, weeks can go by where disruption is minimal and then all of a sudden there are several consecutive days of crap.

Airlines like EZY and FR operate a different logistical approach to Flybes. If an A319 goes tech, it delays or cancels the rest of that flying programme for that airframe. Potentially you could be looking at 3 or 4 flights with circa 150 pax onboard. Flybe will combine services or drop an aircraft already enroute in to that airport to collect passengers - failing that their frequency means that passengers can be rebooked on to the next flight which may actually go before the fault can be fixed. It means passengers get to where they need to go more often than not, albeit later than planned.

It will be very interesting to see how EZYs arrival will affect the IOM residents.

[jijpc]

Agree with Cloud1 and a number of other posters. EZY may be good for some but not everyone. As a frequent business traveller, and there are quite a number of us, the frequency of service is a big factor. Driving out a number of services with locally based aircraft will be a big issue with potentially a significant loss of regular red-eye and evening flights.

Whilst FlyBe had a poor reliability record when they moved in this has vastly improved, albeit it is not as good as when there were 4 based aircraft. It is also good that there is a good variety of destinations on FlyBe and I can't see EZY serving them all.

One of the winners could well be the BACF/Eastern service to LCY?

[RVF750]

....And if EZY push Flybe off the Island, you can be sure the fares will rocket. Not only that but if that cuts demand, they'll cut back to once daily on quieter days too. No-one will dare compete with them and there's not a chance they'll base aircraft here or hire the local crews.

I reckon they are making £8 or so on each pasenger, probably less on the lead in fares, so even full flights can't be covering the costs.

Flybe did play a bit hard on Eastern's BHX, granted, but EMX sank themselves, despite Flybe giving them the LCY route!

Oh, and if Europe recovers so that their Intra European routes come back, where will the aircraft come from and which UK routes will they pull?

EZY are working Flybe over because they are full of spare capacity due to the European implosion. They are sweating the next one down the food chain. Just business, eh.....

[lfc84]

The arrival of easyJet, with its lack of frequency, would appear to not be attrative to the business travellers based on comments.

So, the logical conclusion is that business travellers will remain with flybe.


Therefore, easyJet are going to attract predominantly leisure passengers.

If you are trying to tell me that flybe services depend on leisure passengers then try again.

If flybe decide to cuts rotations it would more than likely be the middle of the day services so that they still offer the morning and evening services for their business passengers.

[Tinwald]

Fellas, the Orange mob has been a breath of fresh air and the flybes needed a push off their monoply. If the oranges dont come up with the frequency and theres demand for the early and late flights someone will provide them, sure as the Albie will never run dry. Wouldn't it make sense for flybe to fill the need for those flights outside the orange schedule to run them from off the rock rather than have them sit doing nothing or run almost empty against the oranges.:confused:

[pabely]

This could all change when EZY start buying more airframes again, could be a mixed fleet again, downsize for thin routes and upscale for the push further outside europe.......but we will have to wait and see what they buy....anyhow it won't effect IOM for a few years yet....

[IOMspotter]

The skeet this mornin is that Flybe have announced somewhere today that they are losing money and parking up 4 planes for the winter. We couldnt find it anywhere though:confused:

[Tinwald]

Spotter, me old mate, you need to look harder fella

Flybe warns jobs at risk after posting a loss - Management - Scotsman.com (http://www.scotsman.com/business/management/flybe-warns-jobs-at-risk-after-posting-a-loss-1-2620994)

:{

[IOMspotter]

Cheers Tinwald. The only time we see The Scotsman is if we cabin clean a Logie.

Lets hope the jobs at risk arent on IOM but it must be all down to who cuts flights first. A loss for the summer doesnt sound good though as the winter is always worst.:{

[lfc84]

When flybe wanted euromanx out, the flybe fares were £20 on the LPL-IOM route. Does anyone know any reason why they cannot repeat this now in an attempt to win back business? At present the flybe fares on this route are £30....

[JobsaGoodun]

I imagine that simply the significant increase in the cost of fuel and the increase in APD since the days of Euromanx is enough to mean that revisiting £20 fares would be commerically unrealistic

I also think it highly probable that even at £30 one-way, Flybe will be subsidising the cost of your flight ticket from IOM to LPL.

[lfc84]

yet MAN-BHD is £24.72 & £28......

JER-MAN is £38 and JER-GLA (2 sectors) is £57 - this is what they used to charge for LGW-IOM (one sector)

by comparisson

[jijpc]

Lots of items on this and various threads about the price differences and there are, in some quarters, an assumption that EZY are cheap. I would agree that at times they are however not always!

Just booked flights for May 2013 from IOM-LGW. The price for 2 adults plus bags of 20kg each (no seat reservations) and given that the return LGW-IOM leg is the first Saturday of TT fortnight the FlyBe price was £256. For the same dates and at similar times the EZY price was £90 more expensive!

Apart from the price BE got the business because if there is a better chance that if the lunchtime flights get delayed or cancelled, there is hopefully space on a later flight. This would not be an option with EZY

[IOMspotter]

Has anyone seen the full airport passenger numberes for October. They are late which usually means bad:{

The CAA provisional figures UK Airport Provisional Statistics: 2012 - 10 | Aviation Intelligence | About the CAA (http://www.caa.co.uk/default.aspx?catid=80&pagetype=88&sglid=11&fld=201210) show MAN down 6%, LPL DOWN 12% LGW + 32% LCY +13% LTN-32% BHD -13% BLK -4% BRS-2% EDI -28% GLA + 7% JER -37% LBA +23%

Theres so many ups and downs I havent a clue what the total is. Its probably up a bit with all the increase at LGW. but it looks like loads have stopped flying to LPL and MAN and gone down to LGW on the EZY cheapo tickets. Normally if they are good thow we hear under a week of month end:*

[Jamesair]

Don't forget that little ray of sunshine NCL + 271%

[IOMspotter]

I missed BHX to. it was :mad: down 8%:{

[matspart3]

Oxford and Leeds bite the dust too

BBC News - Manx2.com suspends Leeds Bradford and Oxford services (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-isle-of-man-20338928)

[Chitty]

some body at the bbc havnt done there home work as manx2 dont fly to East midlands airport no more . but think it is a real same as manx2 is not flying from leeds no more as the isle of man is popular for the poeple of yorkshire. i hope another airline takes up the route soon

[IOMspotter]

With the LGW numbers up so much it looks like EZY have taken their own passengers off their LPL as well as off BEs LGW. Weve seem better loads on their LGW than on their LPL. BEs LGW numbers seem well down most days but not as bad as LPL .:O

[jetstreamtechrecords]

it will all end in tears.:{ I said so when FlyBe pushed us out. What have they done? Stopped SOU, Stopped BRS and are killing BHX which Eastern had 3x daily and they are now 1 daily some days.

LPL and LGW wont support 2 operators - never has done - never will do.:E

[Maverick8701]

I do agree with you JSTR it will end in tears but it will be the guys on the IOM that suffer. The main plus I see for Flybe is based aircraft therefore local Pilots, Crew, Engineers and support staff.

I appreciate that money talks but as said before on here the locals will need to be careful what they wish for. Easy will not base aircraft on the IOM therefore no early departures or late arrivals making a day return near impossible and as soon as they force Flybe out will increase fares with worse frequency starting the cycle again. Whilst I agree Flybe may have been guilty of this at least Flybe has protected local jobs and provided a decent level of frequency.

My concern is that for Flybe to compete with Easy they will have to shut IOM as a base loosing as above local jobs and frequency and run them from the other end or w patterns to achieve the economies that easy get. Other than that worst case scenario (which I can't see) stop serving IOM.

Anyway guess it will unfold over the next 12 months.

[Hansol]

The management buy out at Manx2 and the rebranding is a bit worrying. Good luck to everyone.

[Capt. Horrendous]

Who are the management buying the operation from?

[COBHC]

apparently they're called 'Citywing' now?

[Tinwald]

Thats exactly what I Capn'. Something has to be up for sale to buy it. and the hayes fella is staying as the main man. somethng fishy going on I reckon, yessir.

[Wellington Bomber]

Maybe Manx2 name now smeared after the Cork crash

Phoenix rising from the ashes

[kapton]

The timing of the Manx2 name change so close to the final report being published concerning the tragic crash of the Manx2 Metroliner at Cork Airport almost 2 years ago does seem a little bit strange. It is certainly going to be a challenge for the lawyers to unravel the Byzantine organisation of the former Manx2, once the company has changed its name. The UK CAA are probably going to hide behind EASA regulations to avoid any culpability in regulating Manx2, and the local CAA can say, "nothing to do with us gov, privately registered and owned aircraft only". An interesting few months ahead.

[IOMspotter]

more details on this local TV bit. mytv.im - Isle of Man News (http://www.mytv.im/chapter.asp?Chpt=188&Ln=N)

[IOMspotter]

And another regional route goes :{ Blue Islands Cease Isle of Man Route - Business News | businesslife.co (http://www.businesslife.co/BusinessNews.aspx?id=blue-islands-cease-isle-of-man-route) :{:{

[manx crab]

But Bristol is back for the summer it seems.

[Hansol]

Its the same old story. Too much capacity chasing too few passengers. Now that EZY are operating LPL and Gatwick the damage has been done, and Flybe can do nothing but decline further. The IOM goverment needs a strategic vision for air travel from the island, in my opinion:

Step 1. Privitise the airport and introduce some real efficiency. The days of government employed baggage handlers should have ended in the 1970's.

Step 2.Control the capacity, for our Island a free for all has never served the customer well in the long term.

Step 3. Give true incentives to operators.

Step 4 (perhaps step1.) remove the present airport director and replace her with a commercial professional who can represent the Island to the aviation community.

Step 5. Stop wasting money on vanity projects. The new baggage processing area and Control tower could have been done at a fraction of the cost.

[Tinwald]

Cant disagree with any of that fella.

what you have to do is get the message to penetrate the limited brain capacity (like mine) of the berks up in toytown. Getting to penetrate any part of the directress willbe an even greater achievement - unless you slip a note inside a currant bun.:E

[sdryh]

I agree, the islands blue skies agreement is eventually going to cripple the island, leaving only easyjet to cherry pick the most profitable times of the day. Airlines need to be protected like they are in gurnsey, because there is only room for one on each route. Easyjet and Flybe on one route does lead to cheaper fares, but only short term until one pulls of the route, then the price goes up.

[Island Jockey]

Blue skys or not. If Flybe are going to delay their morning service to LGW in what seems every other day there will be less pax to need a service.
Operational reasons, again.

[Haven't a clue]

Departed with 20-30 min delay. Landed 0824, minutes after STA 0820.

Stanstead closed due snow. Maybe ATC/LGW imposing delays due to inward diversions? Monday's delay was I guess due to the need to de-ice. The truck was busy when I drove past at 0800; MAN flight being de-iced, BA LCY still on ground waiting it's turn.

[Tonyq]

I-J. Pretty ill-informed and unhelpful comment, I'm afraid. I've flown the BE 271 twenty-five plus times this year and have not been late into LGW once. That rotation to LGW is very dependable, and even when they have got a crewing or aircraft issue in IOM, the LGW departure seems to get priority over LPL and MAN. Just because it's a few minutes late departing today when we seem to have significant disruption in the London area........

Edited to add - BE271 actually arrived at LGW 4 minutes behind schedule, so not actually late at all by the accepted definition.

[Island Jockey]

Departure delay due to no de-icing available to facilitate an on time departure. A Ground handling issue.

[Ransman]

Open skies up for debate, wish they had done this when Manx Airlines was still around.

Public's views sought on Open Skies policy - Energy FM | Isle of Man (http://www.energyfm.net/cms/news_story_244129.html)

[lfc84]

the public are expressing their views already by getting on the cheap flights that are offered by easyjet

[RVF750]

I'm sure they will not bother to express their views until Flybe are gone and the airport empty all day...and easyJet's pricing goes back to what they charge elsewhere, i.e. not willing to lose money on full flights like they do now.

What will the Island have? Same prices as before easyJet came. them once a day except Friday to Monday, and the real possibility of no links by air at all on Tuesdays. Unless you are Patient Transfer when you'll have the pleasure of some rotten old Easten European wreck on charter.

You can't blame leisure travelers taking the cheapest fares they can, Flybe's local staff don't hold any grudges either, but it is a job for the politicians to see the real danger and act to protect the Island's interests collectively.

Oh, and as the boss of Energy is on record as hating Flybe and loving EZ, we can expect a fully neutral view from the media, not.

But then they're used to being told "we told you so", anyway, and aren't renowned for learning from past mistakes.

[Ransman]

Dash & Thump, couldn't have put it better myself.
There was uproar when they anounced that they were to cut the bus service to Maughold and reduce frequencies on other routes, however, when it comes to planning the future of our air travel connections between the Island and the UK? Head in the sand again. Unbelievable!

[Haven't a clue]

For those of you with long memories we're seeing the Manx Line vs the Steam Packet battle played out again. After killing each other financially for a couple of years they merged. Government were terrified at the prospect of loosing the shipping link so they brought in a user agreement to give the Steam Packet a regulated monopoly.

Alas our two present day protagonists have different financial bases, and the one with the bigger pocket will inevitably win, with as D&T says dire consequences for the island's air services.

Many years ago I sat on a government committee looking at elements of the island's future prospects and how to make things grow and be better. I and others looked at transport and a senior member of our island's aviation community asked us to consider a similar user agreement which would also protect amongst other things the LHR slots. Despite our appreciation of his case and recommendations to the then government for such an agreement nothing happened.

The rest is history; the demise of our local airline, and the various bouts of cut throat competition which benefit the islands once a year travellers for a short time but damage the services in the longer term.

Market forces work in perfect markets. Our politicos and their advisors fail to realise that much of the island's marketplace is actually imperfect.

[IOMspotter]

If more proof is needed then Flybes canning of LTN from Jan 7th shows the damage the competion on LGW is doing to most of the other routes here. LTN was always the cheapest way to London by miles but with cheaper seats now to LGW its been terrible loads recently.:sad:

[lfc84]

7% rise in the november figures

More than 59,500 passengers passed through the Ronaldsway terminal, the highest November figure for five years.

[lfc84]

IOM-LTN went onward to JER. So is it IOM-LTN or JER-LTN or JER-IOM that prompted the cessation ?

[pabely]

Yes, Flybe just advised me the canning of two of my booked flights, offered LGW or BHX, neither good for me as I want connecting flights out of Luton.
Come on EZY, start IOM - LTN and really kick BE in the teeth as that will hurt them to BHX as well.
Sorry BE, you have taken us for a ride for too long now.

[manx crab]

If Easyjet had been interested in Ltn they would have done it before LGW.

After all they have bases in 4 airports that class themselves as London, but chose to fly from LGW despite that being already served by 29 flights weekly.

At least if they had started a daily to Luton it would have expanded consumer choice

[Haven't a clue]

In the commentary accompanying the November figures the airport director says easyJet LGW pax were 3800. The overall increase to LGW was 2,981 so FlyBe have dropped just over 800, from the 10,300 last year. That's not bad but we don't know what the forward bookings look like.

FlyBe's response by cancelling loads of rotations will only make matters worse so maybe those forward bookings are dire?

[pabely]

Wouldn't be suprised to see EZY come on-line with MAN and later LTN. I'm afraid BE, your days are numbered unless you get your price/product right!

Whether IOM will cope with say 4 A319s at once is a different matter!

[manx crab]

Well if they did, it would be disastrous for the island.

We need more than just the odd daily or 4x weekly service when Easy have an aircraft spare and we need something in between the expensive business oriented carriers with sky high base fares and the ticket seller style operators.

[lfc84]

and what about the inbound passengers? standards of accommodation....:ugh:

[pabely]

I'm afraid 'the island' seem to be marching with their feet - too EZY.

Just talking to all my friends in IOM, although leisure, booked up a few flights well in advance for Foofball weekends etc.

[JC25]

Of course, they'll march to EZY with their cheap fares. Then if/when Flybe do throw in the towel and EZY (sensibly) hike up the fares, they'll be complaining that they're left with very limited options and no cheap fares.

It's been said again and again, the IOM market is not big enough to support multiple carriers. Flybe strike a balance between frequency for business travellers and reasonable fares for leisure travellers who book early and take advantage of sales etc.

Flybe are a business, not a charity and may at some point cut their losses and run and that point there will be waves of "I told you so" from many people. The IOM would be left with a very limited service that will cause havoc for many businesses who rely on good links to MAN, BHX, LPL and LGW.

Gone would be the days code shares to CDG with AF and AUH (and beyond) with EY and the benefits of interlining with VS, EK and BA etc.

Need I go on?

[GAZMO]

Although IOM has a small population EZY could be more successful if they offered through flights from BFS via IOM to other destinations or greater frequency to LGW. With allocated seating this could be a realistic

[manx crab]

and what about the inbound passengers?If memory serves, increased inbound traffic from the UK was the main selling features given by the airport for encouraging one of the big two LCC's to serve the IOM.

Looking at the figures since Easy launched their service I would say that has not been the case, they have merely taken traffic from the Steam Packet, BPL, LBA etc. I also doubt if there is 140 odd people daily in the southeast of England suddenly planning a visit to the IOM because of cheap fares from Easy on the LGW route.

[Tonyq]

JC25 - Excellent post and summary of all that has been said on here before. The big question, is how close to the tipping point where BE throw in the towel are we?

GAZMO - EZY model is based around uncomplicated point to point flying. I don't think there is anywhere on their entire network where the scenario you have outlined can be found. Are they likely buck their model for the little old IOM?

Pabely - Be careful what you wish for.............

[bonatti]

A quick internet search shows Easyjets average load factor at 85%. Dont know how accurate this is but i'd be suprised if they are any where near this on their IOM routes.
Any one know what it is on IOM routes?

[EI-BUD]

bonatti,

IOM airport publish the figures by route and also totals by carrier, hence if we look at November we can work out the overall load factor of easyJet on the combined two IOM routes to LPL and LGW.

Total passengers carried by easyJet in November to/from IOM: 12170
Total seats flown by easyJet in November to/from IOM: 23088
Therefore overall loadfactor 52.7%

They had 20% of all capacity on the IOM with 34 weekly 319 services.

We can therefore infer that if total passengers carried on combined IOM LPL and LGW routes was 29,516, easyJet had a share of 41% of the traffic, not a bad achievement given the low frequency of the flights.

Not taking from the points made about easyJet on IOM and the longer terms effects that their low fares may have for the Island in any way.

EI-BUD

[JC25]

Tonyq - I honesty don't know how close to the tipping pint things on IOM are for BE. It could well be that the routes are still profitable or at least paying their way. But in the context of the airline more generally making losses and looking to cut costs wherever possible, I'd say the IOM routes are quite vulnerable right now. Flybe are not in a position to maintain service on unprofitable routes in the hope that things will pick up soon.

However, another part of my thinks that BE may play it strategically and take losses on IOM in the hope that EZY will back off first and the revenue will start flowing back in again. If BE show signs of rolling over when under pressure, it may give a big green light to EZY to move in on other lucrative routes that so far have been off EZY's radar.

Truth is no one knows other than those at the top of the commercial department in BE. I hope they don't give in as there are a lot of hard working and loyal staff on the IOM who would be devastated to find themselves without a job.

On a sentimemtal note, a good number of the crew based at IOM with BE have many years of continuous service going back to Manx Airlines days. They've trawled those routes for decades serving the locals and its sad that those very locals they take pleasure in serving are so quick to abandon them for the orange bus.

[EI-BUD]

JC25,


it may give a big green light to EZY to move in on other lucrative routes that so far have been off EZY's radar


Do you feel that they have not seen a green light already making an attack on many BE markets?

How many routes have easyJet entered that effect important markets for BE?
Belfast Birmingham (easyJet carried 14k reports say in the local media)
Belfast Manchester
Services Ex LGW
Now starting routes to NQY that will infringe on LGW numbers?

Quite a few other routes taking serious competition, e.g. Belfast City LGW by Aer Lingus and rumours of more EI routes ex BHD on BE network.

Given that BE are reportedly losing big bucks, I feel that a cull of underperforming routes are coming and EZY know who to pitch their battles against.

EI-BUD

[Tonyq]

EI-BUD - I think there's one or two errors in your calculations.

EZY operated 19 LGW rotations and 44 LPL rotations in November giving a total seat count of 19656, and a L/F of 62%. Well below the network average.

Through further analysis it is possible to work out that the average load on LPL is 95 pax (61%) and LGW 100 (64%).

JC25 - agree, that we don't know what the BE numbers look like and what their strategy is, especially when they are battling EZY on other fronts too.

Bearing in mind that in their recent financials they stated that they wanted to reduce supplier costs by £2 per seat in the next year, I'd guess their commercial people will be having a fairly robust conversation regarding charges with the AD. Her strategy of opening the doors to EZY and shooting her mouth off about the Airport's high cost base has given the guys from Exeter a few cards to play.

[EI-BUD]

Hi Tonyq;

Sorry for mistake, I was taking typical rotations per day and adding them for Nov. Did the frequency increase at some point during November as I understand
LGW is 1-34567 (6 per week) and LPL Daily with 2 on days 1--45-7 (11 per week), 1 on days -23--6-?

EI-BUD

[Tonyq]

The general pattern is LGW 1--45-7, LPL is daily with a second flight 1---5-7.

There were some extra flights in October and over half-term and there will be more at Xmas.

There are also some reductions ahead, in January. In fact there will be a few 'EZY-free' days at Ronaldsway in mid-Jan.

[pabely]

Tonyq.....once EZY start ordering more aircraft we could see a smaller aircraft enter the fleet. BE will be very afraid then all over their network, although it won't be for a few years yet!
As far as causing havoc to businesses in the IOM, I think you will find most businesses in the UK use EZY & RYR anyhow throughout Europe. Gone are the days of Amex Gold accounts & business class. It is a very lean outfit which survives and BE are bleeding at the moment.

[manx crab]

once EZY start ordering more aircraft we could see a smaller aircraft enter the fleetWould it not be more likely that Easy would just buy Flybe, after all they have a large order and options for a smaller jet aircraft type already.

[IOMspotter]

Dont forget EZY have already announced they are turning the screw again in March when they go up to daily from LGW. :ooh:

[sdryh]

EZY only do one rotation to LGW a day, lunch time. So example, business man / woman wants to have an early meeting, they have to travel the day before, have their meeting then Travel back the next day. 3 day trip or fly with BA to london City. Now what is the cheapest ticket?

We need the frequency of Flybe and not the occasional cheap ticket with EZY. Flybe are cheap if you book in advance. It annoys me on the island that people only look short term, not long term. As soon as the economy picks up EZY will be off, then who will service the island?

The island needs regulating, just like the ferry. Gurnsey do it and it works well there. Refer to the 'blue skies' debate where these questions are being asked.

One last point, Flybe are based on the island. The only airline to be fully crewed from here(Manx2 is a ticket airline, not Manx), so how many jobs will be lost if they pull out? 60ish? No longer paying tax and contributing to society. A very sad loss.

Islanders, please wake up and smell the coffee before it is too late!

[Haven't a clue]

sdryh Those of us who are of an age to remember how grim the air services to and from the island were pre Manx Airlines (the eighties version, not the earlier one!); those of us with business interests requiring off island travel or onto island trips by clients/advisors; those of us who want to interline our travel beyond the UK; those of us who want to be comfortable that we "customers" will be supported in the event of technical or weather delays; those of us who understand the expression you get what you pay for; those of us who travel frequently for whatever reason and like to be greeted as an individual, sometimes by name - we smelt the coffee years ago when easyJet operations from LPL were first mooted.

But we are a voice crying aloud in the aviation wilderness. We can only hope that there is a huge economic upturn for the island (unlikely) to support all three London bound airlines.

I did boat and train as a youngster, and, more recently when the ash cloud arrived. It takes forever. God forbid we return to those days, or even to the days of Cambrian's London via Liverpool service. But it could happen!!

[lfc84]

time for the business community to use it or lose it then

[Tonyq]

I doubt there are many people from the 'business community' using EZY. Certainly don't seem to many of them interspersed with the 'Primark Brigade' when I've watched the 'Pully Bus' decanting it's punters.

[pabely]

I counted only 18 on the IOM - LTN today, not suprised it's days are numbered.

[Tinwald]

fellas, let's not get too sentimental. flybe are getting a dose of the medicine they've been quite happy to dole out to others.

I dont remember to many tears being shed on these pages when the euromanxies went down with 70 job losses.

True some of the flybe crews have been here along time but many of them have lead charmed lives compared to the chaos that's gone through the airline business on the mainland and around the world.

Chickens home to roost or the real world cathcing up with Fraggle - take your pick but when the oranges are offering a return to gatwick for the blues oneway bit, there is and will be no contest, yessir:ok:

[Capt. Horrendous]

Tinwald, unlike the current 'battle', Flybe fought like for like with EMX in that they both had similar sized planes based on the Island. The current situation is most definitely not the same. Now, if EZY were to base aircraft here and offer a similar frequency of services as the island based operators, there would be no argument.

[Hansol]

EZY are not interested in doing anything serious on the island. The current services are merely filling slots in their schedule. If a better use for the aircraft came along they would be gone in a shot. The Islands population and its governmant have never been interested in having a stable secure air service. They have always encouraged price wars which will always lead to what we have now. That said business travel is down, money is tight and we will inevitably end up with a service that fits the market. Unfortunately we are getting close to the point where it is probably uneconomical to run the levels of service we have seen in the past.
I think the service from Flybe has been good, far better then the good ole Manx airlines days which everyone seems to long for through rose tinted glasses. Euromanx was poorly run and had to go. I hope the guys at Manx2 can hang on.
In the end there is always the boat. Now thats the way to do a deal with the Manx government :)

[kapton]

Capt Horrendous. There was no battle between Flybe, and Euromanx. Flybe used its superior financial position to undercut Euromanx for 4 months, prior to launching services on Euromanx's prime routes of Manchester and Liverpool. Flybe knew the vulnerability of Euromanx's situation, and set out to drive it out of business. The rest is history. The unforeseen circumstance of this was that Euromanx operated the only business connection to London. Forget Gatwick, it is not a business connection to London, just as Kiddlington is not, and never will be a London airport. Once Euromanx had gone, the island lost its only convenient connection to the financial capital of Europe. What a signal to send to the general business community. Effectively, the Isle of Man was turning off its own life-support machine. Do you really think Flybe cared? No. It now had the opportunity to conduct nothing but a shakedown on its monopoly routes. Trust me, I know. Having flown on Flybe for business(paid for by myself), and leisure.
Hansol. The rose-tinted spectacle times you speak of during Manx Airlines times. Although they may not have been perfect. Maybe people hark back to the times when Manx Airlines employed about a 1000 people locally. Or, who every year took on local school leavers as engineering apprenticees. Or, maybe they wish they could arrive at the check-in desk early and be transferred to a more convenient flight, free of charge. Or, maybe it's the fact that what is now a hotel used to be Manx Airlines, administration department. As for Euromanx, who are you to say they needed to go? Yes the boss didn't know an aeroplane from a paper plane. But do you think waking up in the morning to no job, and no pay was fun? And, "needed to go"?
I truly hope that the island is able to accommodate both Flybe, and EasyJet, but going on the history of the last few years, some sort of reduction of choice of routes of the island seems likely. The Summer timetables will be a good barometer of the state of aviation on the island.

[Hansol]

And who was it that sold out Manx Airlines? When the money was offered for the Heathrow slot, the deal was done and there was very little thought given to the employees. Efficient airlines prosper, generally the ones that are loved the most are in reality lousey businesses and end up going the way of lousey businesses. History is littered with wonderful airlines we all enjoyed working for! Wake up! its the toughest business on the planet and only the best survive.
Punctuality at Manx was awful, the ATP was awful, customer service was awful, ticket prices were high....hence it no longer exists.

[lfc84]

Or, maybe they wish they could arrive at the check-in desk early and be transferred to a more convenient flight, free of charge.

easyjet definitely offer this, and perhaps manx2/citiwing

[Capt. Horrendous]

Kapton, I think you missed my point slightly. When Flybe and EMX went head to head they were in direct competition, both had planes and crews based here, and flew similar routes. The one with the bigger pockets won, that's what tends to happen and is one of the privileges of living in a capitalist society.

In the main, Flybe offered a direct replacement to the services offered by EMX - with the obvious exception of LCY. The viability of the LCY route warrants a thread of it's own, but history has shown that it's been a bit of a struggle to make it viable. British European, VLM and Aer Aran couldn't make it work, who knows whether EMX were making money on it. Maybe BACF using an Eastern Airways Saab can - time will tell.

Easyjet, should they make Flybe's tenure on the Island unviable, will never be able to offer the range and frequency of services currently available . There would be two flights per day at the most to the main destinations. Foggy days will see their aircraft divert back to base in the UK to carry on their lines of work elsewhere. Locally based aircraft would be more minded to hold for an improvement for a longer period and would always return to the Island following and diversion. Since the runway extension at Ronaldsway the landing minima have increased, weather diversions are much more likely.

[EI-BUD]

I think the service from Flybe has been good, far better then the good ole Manx airlines days which everyone seems to long for through rose tinted glasses


Hansol,
I feel that it is hard to make a fair comparsion between Flybe of today and Manx Airlines of their time. Custom was different then and it has taken the last decade and the impact of low cost airlines and consolidation to bring the industry to where it is. Airlines now put such a focus on on time performance and making the operations as lean as possible. Custom and practice is quite different now, and costs have declined. Cost has a role to play in any comparison, I feel.

I used to fly frequently to visit relations on DUB IOM BLK, sometimes on 146 for some parts of the trip and often Shorts 360. I found Manx to be a good little airlines.

The company with the deepest pockets will prevail. I cant see EasyJet retreating from any BE route, and they will hold out on LGW until they can move BE and given BEs challenges at the moment, we will see just how long they sit this one out. Loser will be the IOM economy in terms of jobs, however, if easyjet can stimulate extra traffic that will have an upside, but to date the figures show a ripple effect across all airlines, with Manx2 feeling pain and BEs challenges well documented. The question is does or will easyJets presence on the IOM stimulate traffic overall in a market that is in decline?

I would imagine if BE axed IOM EZY could step LGW to x 3 daily...

[manx crab]

easyjet definitely offer this, and perhaps manx2/citiwingYes, Easyjet do, and its very sensible move and Flybe should offer it, however, its not much use when there is only one flight per day or every other day.

If you look at the summer schedule to Lpl, two flights a day only on Sat/Sun, must have something better for the aircraft to do in the week.

[pabely]

This is one of my big turn-off's about BE. Been International via MAN or LGW with approx 6 hour stop-over built in. Arrive on time or early, find a BE flight going in the next 2 hours, approach BE desk to transfer ticket, of course sir but that will cost you £250! (then on one occation they cancel my orginal flight after the earlier one has gone). I know they want to extract more money from me but I avoid booking with them if I can, so they loose out in the end anyhow!

[tarnehat]

EasyJet and Manx2 both have the free early transfer, and they also both have a rescue fee, to save buying a new ticket if you miss the flight. Always helps if a meeting runs short or long!

FlyBe do not, and it's a real pain ... how can people say FlyBe has better customer service when they do stuff like this?

[AirLCY]

EI-BUD

How do you think Easy will do 3 daily if BE stop? BE do 4 daily with half the capacity on each aircraft, not forgetting they weren't even 3/4 full before Easyjet. Therefore max is likely to be 2 daily with a poor schedule as peak slots will be used at LGW for more lucrative routes.

As I've said before IOM may regret Easyjet's arrival longer term, great cheap fares in the short term though.

[Tinwald]

kapton,fella, far better put and eloqwently put than me. My mate down the Albie says the euromanxies were easily holding their own on the manchester route and london city was a good and profitable service. behind the scenes money funny business was probably more to blame for the reds ending but flybe coming onto liverpool was the death blow and about that there can be no arguement.

But all history. Just made a trip with the oranges down last sunday and must have been nudging 90 on board and back today with well over 50. Those blue aircraft must be feeling pretty empty. If the so-called business people on fraggle want their early and late flight I'm sure the blues will oblige and leave the afternoon run to the oranges. My mate says that aviation abwhores a vacum so if the blues upped and went, you can bet your shirt someone would fill the space, yessir:ok:

[manx crab]

Tinwald, its not just business people that want high frequency services. If I am on a leisure trip I don't want to have to waste 2 days getting there and back and I want to do it at a reasonable fare if I am prepared to book early and be flexible and Flybe do this at the moment.

Euromanx would never have survived because it was a financial basket case, Flybe may have put the last nail in the coffin but the coffin was of its own making. And it cost the taxpayer a lot of money.

[Rivet Joint]

It seems that the Sou-Iom route has good loads with the airport themselves even quoting its absence as a main factor in figures being down. With BE now having bigger fish to fry I wonder if Eastern or even Manx2 will try it? Surely it
Makes more sense for Manx2 than Oxford?

[tarnehat]

It seems that the Sou-Iom route has good loads with the airport themselves even quoting its absence as a main factor in figures being down. With BE now having bigger fish to fry I wonder if Eastern or even Manx2 will try it?

I e-mailed Aer Arann, Eastern and Manx2 when FlyBe pulled off originally to suggest it. Manx2 got back to me and said they didn't have any plans for it as Oxford was about an hour away straight down the road. But with that gone, who knows - wouldn't bet on it though, not until fuel prices come down or APD disappears.

With flights so cheap to Gatwick with Easyjet, not enough people would be willing to pay what Eastern would charge for it either.

[Rivet Joint]

Thanks for the info Tarnehat.

I think BE will have their hands busy elsewhere and Eastern maybe not the right fit leaving Manx2 free to give it a go. No offence to Oxford but the Sou route has far more pedigree and surely on Manx's smaller planes it would create good yeilds. Worth a shot.

[Hansol]

Manx 2 don't have any planes. The company that were providing them had their AOC pulled because of financial problems. Lets hope the new Manx 2 have a reliable source of equipment for the new year....Feb could be a tough month.

[EI-BUD]

the Sou route has far more pedigree and surely on Manx's smaller planes it would create good yeilds. Worth a shot


I wouldnt agree that SOU would be a good option at this time for NM. EZY flying to LGW is too close to allow SOU to prosper as a route. NM have felt the effects since EZY arrived on IOM eventhough the EZY routes are not in common with NMs so I dont see that SOU would survive so long as EZY are on IOM LGW.

The monthly figures show the ripple effect EZYs operations have had on all other carriers ex IOM...
EI-BUD

[IOMspotter]

I agree with EI BUD. With huge overcapacity on LGW and prices right down why would anyone in their right mind start a SOU just now?:confused:

[Tonyq]

Anyone at Reynoldsway know what happened to the EZY from LGW yesterday (Sunday).

It was well out over the Irish Sea towards the island, when it turned back and diverted to LPL. Eventually arrived over two hours late on a different aircraft, whilst the original one had already departed LPL to MAD.

[RVF750]

Airbus types can go tech occasionally too. LPL is a maintenance and crew base to logical to pop in there I would think rather than be stuck on the Island like the other crew who had the bird strike just before Christmas and somehow didn't fancy going to LPL but turn back for a 3 hr delay for passengers.....

[slapdash8]

Just going back to the euromanx v Flybe part of the thread, don't assume too much regarding the competition.

As far as I am aware, Flybe held the heavy maintenance contract for EMs aircraft. When EM went under and flew the aircraft off island under the cover of darkness, proior to the AOC suspension, they went to Exeter, and sat in storage with Flybe before being sold on/handed back.

[kapton]

Slapdash8. A German company carried out the heavy maintenance for Euromanx. They also provided the engineers for line maintenance. The Austrian AOC holder allied to, and with the knowledge, and co-operation of EM management flew the aircraft to Flybe to avoid paying their debts to the German maintenance provider. it was one of the unsavoury episodes surrounding the last few months of EM. If I am correct, the son (who was the CEO at the time) of the former owner of EM has set himself up as an independent aviation consultant in the penal colony he calls home. If you check on any of the aviation fleet websites, I think you will find that the Dash 8, 200 and 300 were purchased by a company in North America.

[slapdash8]

Slapdash8. A German company carried out the heavy maintenance for Euromanx. They also provided the engineers for line maintenance. The Austrian AOC holder allied to, and with the knowledge, and co-operation of EM management flew the aircraft to Flybe to avoid paying their debts to the German maintenance provider. it was one of the unsavoury episodes surrounding the last few months of EM. If I am correct, the son (who was the CEO at the time) of the former owner of EM has set himself up as an independent aviation consultant in the penal colony he calls home. If you check on any of the aviation fleet websites, I think you will find that the Dash 8, 200 and 300 were purchased by a company in North America.

Ah, thanks for the extra info. It might not all be a conspiracy

[Haven't a clue]

Interesting to see easyJet LGW service cancelled today (as it was yesterday) while FlyBe soldier on. Assume that easy as one of LGW's biggest operators are obliged to cancel flights when the flow rate gets reduced (as BA do at LHR) and (as again with BA) domestic services get chopped first?

Well done FlyBe though.

Now see the departure is marked "overnight delay etd 1640". Does that mean the aircraft got in yesterday and wasn't able to return to LGW? If so I should be less critical!

[manx crab]

The Lgw was cancelled by Easyjet on Friday as well, and did not go yesterday while as you say Flybe continued to fly, well done to them.

I hope our local politicians are taking note of what has happened.

The inbound leg today is still showing as cancelled as was the outbound until recently so wonder why the change in status. Esayjet site now showing going tomorrow instead.

I would think Easyjet operations see cancelling it as an easy way to recover some delays. It will be fun if Flybe do pull out of the Island

[Fairdealfrank]

Quote: "Interesting to see easyJet LGW service cancelled today (as it was yesterday) while FlyBe soldier on. Assume that easy as one of LGW's biggest operators are obliged to cancel flights when the flow rate gets reduced (as BA do at LHR) and (as again with BA) domestic services get chopped first?"

AT BA, AFAIK, and probably other carriers as well, the idea is to cancel some of the flights on high frequency routes rather than the once/day flights. The former tend to be short haul, the latter long haul.

Makes sense, with high freqency flights, at least pax can reach their destinations sometime the same day, even if it means using large equipment as flights are "combined".

It's probably a little less disruptive than to cancel lower frequency long haul flights, which would mean capacity problems the next day, and aircraft on the wrong continent, etc..

Obviously load factors, particularly premium business load factors, also play a part in determining which flights are cancelled.

Weather conditions at the destination airports have to be considered, of course, which in the case of short haul flights, are likely to be similar.

[manx crab]

I actually flew down to Lgw on Friday evening and came back on Saturday with Flybe and apart from an hours delay outbound it all went fine.

Surprisingly enough there were lots of Easyjet planes landing and taking off down there so methinks the excuse given for cancellation of "weather at LGW" was a little odd.

I wonder how have Easy looked after their IOM pax since Friday?.

[Capt. Horrendous]

The EZY IOM service has been cancelled every day since Friday. Only a couple of other EZY services from LGW out of the several hundred they will have operated over that time have also been cancelled according to the LGW website. Why would this be?

[Killigrew]

Of course, it doesn't help when the only available de-icing rig in IOM is unserviceable today !! Maybe that is a reason?

[manx crab]

In that case would Flybe not have been affected as well? and the Easyjet Lpl flight.

[Capt. Horrendous]

The de ice rig has been serviceable all weekend.

[Tonyq]

If the Airport Director was half the man she seems to think she is, she'd be on the blower to EZY HQ to find out why they are lying about the weather conditions at IOM, and trying to shift the blame for recent serial cancellations.

I just wish the local media here had the gumption to pick these issues and ask some awkward questions. It would be quite timely when the Open Skies policy is under formal review.

[lfc84]

Q) egtt/qfilt/iv/nbo/a/000/999/5405n00437w005
b) from: 13/01/21 10:45 c) to: 13/01/22 09:00

e) deicing facilities not avbl for acft larger than js31. Limited
facilities avbl for small acft only


LPL-IOM-LPL was prior to the notam

[manx crab]

Even taking that NOTAM into account, it does not explain Friday or Sundays rotations being cancelled by Easyjet.

[lfc84]

phone (+44) 1624 825780 and ask them

or (+44) 1624 821600 - ask for annie

[manx crab]

Didnt know Easyjet operations were IOM based:=

You can defend them all you want, and I use them for most of my European flights, but its not good to cancel for 3 days running when others on the same route manage to fly.

[jijpc]

Was about to have a rant at Easy jet for the info on their website that states IOM -LGW service cancelled due to ice at IOM airport, however I think my rant should be aimed at Ronaldsway.

Interesting that apparently de-icing only available to JS31 or smaller - how have FlyBe and Eastern/BACF managed to fly?

Given the Open Skies debate it also shows the importance of airlines with smaller planes and multiple rotations to key destinations. It certainly seems that FlyBe should be congratulated for their attempts to get passengers on and off the island during the last few days. I certainly know that the evening LGW flights were quite late yesterday and on Friday and the GVA flight was late on Saturday. Well done Flybe.

[Capt. Horrendous]

Interesting that apparently de-icing only available to JS31 or smaller - how have FlyBe and Eastern/BACF managed to fly?

Because they didn't need to de-ice.

[mathers_wales_uk]

Maybe the aircraft size J41 or smaller is due to Citywing having their own 4x4 de-icing rig which was used for the LET & D328 aircraft in previous years. I suppose this could also be used for the J31 of Links Air and any J41.

The airport or any airline could request for the service if they are desperate and willing to pay the Citywing fee.

(This is obviously based on the assumption that the rig got transfered over to Citywing from Manx2.com)

[lfc84]

if flybe or anyone else wishes to operate without the de-icing facility then hat is up to them

[Capt. Horrendous]

Err, what else are they going to do, they are based on the IOM?. If their aircraft aren't contaminated, then of course they are going to operate. I think EZY were scared of getting an Airbus stuck here today with the potential for snow and no de-icing rig.

Our 'famous' 'Apprentice' contestant, Staurt Baggs, got bumped off the Ezy Gatwick flight today, and allegedly was told by Easyjet (according to his page on facebook) that Ronaldsway was closed because the man who grits the runway is stuck off Island too!. I can see how 'the de-icer isn't going to be there til tomorrow' could be construed as that - just.

[Haven't a clue]

Is the deicing rig actually u/s or has the handling agent run out of fluid? That happened a few years back. Different agent now, I know.

[vectisman]

It would appear to me, reading as an outsider from the Isle of Man, that the gist of recent comments is that,although Flybe may not be as glamorous or at times as cheap as certain competition, when it comes to weather conditions recently experienced their dependability is valued. Competition is a good thing but I think it would be less than ideal if they were to leave completely. Four times a day to London (most days) may not be replaced by other carriers as much as some might argue or desire. I am sure most people would agree that there is a place for multiple daily frequencies throughout the day even if the planes may be a little slower and the style not quite so upbeat! Sometimes a dependable old 'friend' can be very useful.

V.

[manx crab]

Well said Vectisman:ok:

[pabely]

I think the EZY were cancelled because the previous sectors were running so far behind, remember, france & germany suffered from snow as well.
IOM was just the smallest cog in the days shedules.

[slapdash8]

pabely I think the EZY were cancelled because the previous sectors were running so far behind, remember, france & germany suffered from snow as well.
IOM was just the smallest cog in the days shedules.


But that small cog hasn't turned in 3 days.

The difference here is the approach from the airlines. BE, Eastern and Citywing understand that the IOM air services are a lifeline. You cannot cancel flights 3 days on the trot, without any good reason, to a destination that utterly relies on air transport.

After 3 days, I have to question Easyjets understanding of the market here and the real reason they are committing to air services on the island.

I'm not saying Flybe are perfect, they are far from it, but I have witnessed first hand, them moving heaven and earth to keep the island flying.

[Cloud1]

This thread has to be one of the most confusing and contradictory going. I never know whether BE are in residents good books or bad. Its like the worlds worst marriage

[slapdash8]

We're a fickle lot.

For Flybe, see citiexpress, bacon and manx airlines. The major airline at the time is the one everybody loves to hate. But they'll adore you when you're gone.

[sdryh]

When is the open skies debate? Very concerned that Easy have cancelled 3 days in a row, blaming the weather on all occasions. All the island based airlines faced with the same circumstances have all managed to fly ? Just hope the government realise that Easy are not committed to the island and the policy needs looking at and amending to reflect the current climate. If Flybe leave the island, which I think they will, it will have far more repercussions to the population movement and business community. If no other airline steps up then I feel businesses will think twice about locating on the island.

Wake up Tynwald!!!! The fat lady has cleared her throat!!!

[pabely]

I think I just stated, problems in Europe, not IOM. Do Flybe's depart IOM do 6/7 sectors across europe and return! If they were based doing 2 way legs then there would not be an issue but that is never going to happen with an Airbus.

[slapdash8]

I think I just stated, problems in Europe, not IOM. Do Flybe's depart IOM do 6/7 sectors across europe and return! If they were based doing 2 way legs then there would not be an issue but that is never going to happen with an Airbus.

In that case, do easyjet need to re evaluate its commitment to the island? Where can this little peice of the puzzle possibly fit in such a widespread outfit?

Flybe aircraft do not dogleg round Europe all day, they will do upto 8 sectors to and from the island, which is as close to a reliable service as you are going to get.

[Capt. Horrendous]

Pabely, I don't buy that. Out of hundreds of EZY Gatwick departures, only about four services were cancelled over the weekend. IOM services accounted for half of that. EZY are selling seats on that route for peanuts in an attempt to kill off Flybe. It's no wonder it is the easiest (and cheapest) option for them to cancel.

[Tinwald]

Fellas All this chat about flybe leaving and the orange mob not having a commitment. Theyre not registered charities, neither of them. The bottom line rules and the Exeter mob will fit the operation to suit the requirment. Theyll keep services to the rock but not neccessarily from this end. The business case for the early departures is a luxury with falling business traffic - just make your meeting for lunchtime. Even if the blues did go, theres 3 business flights into the city and the casual folks can use the afternoon easy. Still nothing to stop the blues running a morning and evening service on Gatwick. Time and the bottom line will tell, yessir.

[slapdash8]

Fellas All this chat about flybe leaving and the orange mob not having a commitment. Theyre not registered charities, neither of them. The bottom line rules and the Exeter mob will fit the operation to suit the requirment. Theyll keep services to the rock but not neccessarily from this end. The business case for the early departures is a luxury with falling business traffic - just make your meeting for lunchtime. Even if the blues did go, theres 3 business flights into the city and the casual folks can use the afternoon easy. Still nothing to stop the blues running a morning and evening service on Gatwick. Time and the bottom line will tell, yessir.

You're absolutely right. It's easy to forget that paying customers are much further down the priority list than the shareholders.

[Old Nigel]

Easy there's a boat in the morning.( or possibly a flight some time this month)
Oh I forgot they don't have any local staff!!!!

[pabely]

Fellas All this chat about flybe leaving and the orange mob not having a commitment. Theyre not registered charities, neither of them.

Bang on, both are businesses, non paid for by the IOM public or taxpayer.

If I was a courior service on the IOM delivering to Pokerstars & M&S as well as job blogs, if I'm running late and cannot do all my deliveries, who will miss out???

Aka Easyjet will protect their cash cows to ski, sun and trunk cities at the expense of the IOM route. It's just business I'm afraid.

[lfc84]

Q) egtt/qfilt/iv/nbo/a/000/999/5405n00437w005
b) from: 13/01/22 07:25 c) to: 13/01/22 18:00

e) deicing facilities not avbl for aircraft larger than js31. Limited
facilities available for small aircraft only

[jijpc]

Pabely,
I accept that delays elsewhere on the network could cause cancellations such at EZY yesterday, however on the EZY website they stated 'Cancelled due to ice at Isle of Man Airport" and as others have said most other EZY rotations at LGW were operating.

One positive comment is that EZY did actually schedule an extra LGW-IOM-LGW rotation this afternoon which was in addition to the timetable which has no flights due today or tomorrow.

[manx crab]

That just means the slf ( if there are any) that have been waiting since last Friday could finally travel:eek:

[Jet A1]

De Ice rig looked like it broke down after de-icing the EZY LPL flight, with all the black smoke pouring out of it and fluid leaking from underneath it certainly looked like it had seen better days.

[Haven't a clue]

Unearthed a gem from the family papers yesterday - a booklet commemorating the opening ceremony of the terminal buildings on 24 June 1953. There's a plan of the original layout included showing that wonderful pre security departures environment with passengers walking through doors straight out of the "traffic hall" and onto the apron. And arrivals is just a door from the apron into the "traffic hall" No baggage reclaim facility whatsoever. (Loco's would have liked that. I recall working as a porter several years later bringing bags round to the front of the terminal for collection, often in the rain.)

There was an indoor "Observation Deck". Remember that well too. There is a list of airports regularly served, little changed from today, although the operating airlines are of course completely different.

What really amused me was some of the statistics particularly the record number of passengers handled in one month - 32,494 in August 1952. That's only half the number handled in 2011 or 2012. I may be distorting this somewhat though as the document also records that the total through the airport for 1952 was 128,310.

I also have the pack which accompanied the opening of the new departures pier in 1994 by Nigel Mansell. At this point annual passengers were 520,000. We're still waiting for the December 2012 figures which will show the total for 2012 but the moving average in November was 707,000.

It also says the following: "Aviation is a constantly and rapidly evolving industry, where "boom" and "slump" tend to follow one another in rapid succession. However long term aviation has constantly exceeded its growth forecasts." Never a truer word, I think, and let us hope that this current slump comes to an end soon before any more services are withdrawn.

[IOMspotter]

KLM coming to Fraggle soon with a daily service.

With no long haul APD from AMS they will be targetting LGW and MAN s connecting traffic.:eek: Dont know if this is good or just another nail in FlyBees coffin here on the rock.:confused:

[Tinwald]

Spotter fella excellent skeet. The Euros thought about that route yonks ago but probably ran out of money first.

Brills airport - connect to anywhere you can think of avoiding the smoke.:ok:

[G-JNHP]

Any further details yet re. AMS-IOM-AMS? When it is anticipated to start? Presumably by the F70.

[Hansol]

AMS on an F70, you will be deaf for a week after.
Its a nice plan but I am not sure the IOM travelling public will grasp the possibilities unless there is some serious marketing effort put into it.

[Tonyq]

Are we sure that this isn't just extending the FlyBe codeshare arrangements with AF-KLM group, and that, if it is correct, it won't just be operated by BE using metal that is otherwise going to be slack following the post-EZY retrenchment?

[lfc84]

the same question has been posed in the klm thread

[Tinwald]

Spotter fella, sure this one rumour wasn't after a few down the Albie?

Assumed it would be in the summer so tried Reynaldsway to Amsterdam on the klm site and it says no flights; same for here to Paris but strange that the island is an option on their airports.

If it ever did hjappen it would take long haulers away from the blues' Gatwick service so why would they want to run amsterdam against gatwick:confused:

[Haven't a clue]

Flew into Gatwick South with FlyBe yesterday. Instead of usual route into terminal (pause for photo, walk, get photo checked, then to domestic baggage) walked to international arrivals where nice green signs directed IOM/CI/RoI pax to a lady who checked boarding cards before letting us out. Does anyone know if this is to be the norm in future or just new but temporary?

Seemed to walk for miles, but suspect not that much more than the usual walk to the train station. But I wonder whether there are likely to be delays in the summer months when the immigration hall is heaving?

[manx crab]

Not sure how permanent it is but the leaflet I was given last time at Lgw from the airport says
"From Tuesday 29th January 2013, we're making your journey through Gatwick even easier" .. " This means that you'll no longer need to wait at the facial capture point before collecting your baggage"

Like you I wondered if we would end up with at an hour long queue to get through the cheerful souls at the UK border every time although from what you say there is little or no delay. Certainly the implication from Gatwick is that there is to be less delay than that taken to have ones picture taken.

[Hansol]

The old arrival pier is being renovated, so lots of disruption to come for the rest of the year.

[Haven't a clue]

Hansol It seems demolition and reconstruction of Pier 1 is the plan. See drawing A8 in Gatwick Master Plan (http://www.gatwickairport.com/Documents/business_and_community/Gatwick%20master%20plan/2012-07-16-GAL_Masterplan%20-%20Appendix.pdf)

I suspect that means buses for a while....

[canberra97]

The demolition and the building of a new Pier 1 as well as a new baggage facility was actually announced months ago as part of the LGW Masterplan, full details are on the LGW home page.

[Island Jockey]

Yes a long walk and a longer than usual wait for baggage. The immigration hall was heaving and a few passengers joined the passport check rather than go to the far wall and show boarding card.

There was a couple from GCI who had left their boarding card in the seat pocket so were taken aside.....Wonder what happens when you get to the front of the customs queue with a ship load of tired Virgin travellers behind you trying to explain you only have your IOM driving licence as ID. Not much room to back track.

After baggage collection pax were intercepted and guided through an exit at baggage belt 1 so avoided the blue / green and red channels.

I am sure it will get better PDQ but allow extra time even if you don't have any bags!

[Tonyq]

Still be better than the EZY arrangements when arriving from IOM which always seems to involve a bus, sometimes involves a terminal transfer and takes a minimum of 35 minutes from wheels down to train station.

[boynefly]

How does this effect departures from Gatwick with FlyBe? Can passengers still access the FlyBe lounge?

[Tonyq]

There hasn't been a FlyBe lounge at Gatwick for around 6 months

[Haven't a clue]

It's the end of February. The December passenger numbers, which include the annual summary, have yet to be published. The monthly figures are usually published early if good, late if bad. This exceptional delay suggests that they an embarrassment to the often bullish airport management - are they?

[TSR2]

Well the January stats have been published.

Pax this month 45,854 (-0.9%)

Rolling Year 695,200 (-0.9%)

From these stats it must be deduced that the 2012 annual stats are not a disaster.

[lfc84]

get the stats off the caa

[TSR2]

get the stats off the caa

The stats for December were not posted with the CAA.

[manx crab]

December 2011 total were published on 11 January 2012 and the January 2012 on 17 February 2012.

Provisional figures for December were on the CAA site earlier in the year of

Passengers December 58436
Passengers Rolling Year 695610


Maybe the person who makes the press release is off sick

[lfc84]

Notes for Airline Statistics | Aviation Intelligence | About the CAA (http://www.caa.co.uk/default.aspx?catid=81&pagetype=90&pageid=12194)

Estimated release dates (updated 22 January 2013)

Data Month Date Available on Website
October 2012 24/01/2013
November 2012 22/02/2013
December 2012 18/03/2013
Annual 2012 08/04/2013

In the meantime have a look at December....

UK Airport Statistics: 2012 - 12 | Aviation Intelligence | About the CAA (http://www.caa.co.uk/default.aspx?catid=80&pagetype=88&sglid=3&fld=201212)


http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/80/airport_data/201212/Table_12_2_Domestic_Air_Pax_Traffic_Route_Analysis.pdf

http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/80/airport_data/201212/Table_12_3_Domestic_Air_Pax_Route_Analysis_by_Each_Reporting _Airport.pdf

Contacts | Data, Analysis and Statistics | About the CAA (http://www.caa.co.uk/default.aspx?catid=1279&pagetype=90&pageid=7628)


Debbie Mclean (for queries regarding Airport, Airline and Punctuality Statistics)
44 (0)20 7453 6258
[email protected]

[TSR2]

My apologies lfc84. The December stats appear under 'Non UK Airports'.

[lfc84]

After a year of mixed fortunes for the Island's Airport and air service network, passenger numbers through Isle of Man Airport in 2012 reduced slightly over the 2011 level. The Airport handled 705,993 passengers over the year, about 5,000 passengers lower than 2011 - a drop of 0.68%. December traffic was up – by just 0.5% – with just under 59,000 passing through the terminal, ending 2012 on a slightly positive note.

The faltering UK and European economies have again taken their toll on what was anticipated to be a slight improvement to passenger figures for 2012. Of the 21 routes operated during the year, two thirds saw decreases in passengers with some having a significant impact on the year end figure. The Southampton route, which was withdrawn last February, contributed the biggest decrease of over 12,500 passengers, whilst the short suspension of the London City route during April and May, before British Airways recommenced it, added nearly 8,000 passengers to the deficit. The Flybe Luton route has sharply declined by 25% and added a further reduction of over 6,500 passengers in 2012, whilst their Birmingham route saw a 5.6% decline with 2,500 fewer passengers.

Meanwhile there have been notable improvements to key routes from the Island. The Flybe Gatwick service picked up some of the London City traffic in April and May and, with the addition of easyJet, the route overall has also ended the year with a flourish, increasing passenger numbers by 16,100 or 12.7%. Liverpool, also operated by Flybe and easyJet, increased by 8,000 passengers – nearly 5% - and the new Citywing Oxford route and Loganair’s summer service to Norwich added 5,500 passengers between them.

Ann Reynolds, Airport Director, admitted that 2012 had been a challenge for the Airport and its operators. “The double-dip recession has hit the aviation industry in the UK and Europe very hard in 2012 as it has knocked the confidence out of the already depressed leisure and business air travel markets. People were expecting to have some money in their pockets to take the trips they have been putting off for the last couple of years, and it just hasn’t been possible for most people,” she said. “The result was a promising start to 2012 but declining from April. The last two or three months have shown more promise, but primarily in the major markets of London and the North West. Other regional routes continue to have a tough time, and there is little sign of an underlying improvement yet.”



This is underlined by the recent news of the withdrawal of the Jersey service by Blue Islands and the decision by Citywing (previously Manx2.com) to suspend its Oxford and Leeds services from early January. Flybe has also decided to suspend, until March, its Luton service.

During December, the North West and South East regions continued to set the pace with the NW up by over 1,100 passengers fuelled by an increase in frequency by easyJet on the Liverpool route giving them a rise in passengers of almost 50%. The SE and London routes rose by over 3000 passengers, following the introduction of the easyJet Gatwick service in October, and Flybe maintaining a solid 9,000 passengers on the route. This has resulted in an increase of over 30% on Gatwick over the last quarter and London traffic overall rising by 20% with over 10,000 additional passengers using London air services to and from the Island over the three month period.

[Tinwald]

Well done the Oranges!:D

[Old Nigel]

:8 Nice glasses

[pabely]

Very strong noices about IOM-MAN EZY from May this weekend, is this just Manx gossip?

[Tonyq]

I am not privy to any such rumours, but there are a couple of aspects which might make this attractive to EZY right now. Firstly, and against the odds at present, BE are growing MAN month on month. OK, it's not back to where it was 4 or 5 years ago, but it is steadily recovering numbers.

Secondly, an perhaps more significantly, the Tynwald Select Committee reviewing Open Skies is due to report very soon. It would make sense for EZY to get a foothold on any future potential routes now, just in case the Committee make recommendations which might re-introduce licensing for new operators, in the future.

[Ringwayman]

Isn't it rather short notice for any MAN-IOM service to start in May, especially as there's no leeway for them to operate it as a MAN based aircraft given the amount of rejigging they had to do to boost MAN-CPH

[IOMspotter]

they could always do LPL-IOM-MAN-IOM-LPL.

With 40 minute sectors its not that hard to fit in.:8

[EZY7117LPL]

LPL aircraft are fully utilised.

[Tinwald]

Old news fellas. IOM Spotter started IOM_MAN rumours back in Nov except he was a few months out with the start. Must do better, Spotter;)

[IOMspotter]

I think you will find I was first with the EZY coming to IOM rumour three years ago and everyone poo pooed that too. said it would never happen. :eek: Jus wait EZY from MAN is on the cards its just a case of when. Im not saying its good for us but its coming.:sad:

[RVF750]

Their LGW route diluted the LPL numbers so a MAN service would likely dilute them to the point where neither could be worth doing.

Besides, if they saw Flybe off the Island, which a MAN would probably do, then what use would a once a day service be for business traffic? With only LCY available for any day returns, then we could see a return to a Fishing/Farming only economy, mass unemployment as the Banks decamp and house prices tumbling.....

Careful what you wish for folks, the Island simply cannot sustain both operators long term and either you get frequency and business links OR once a day flights, and prices steadily rising back to what BE charge.

Can't have it both ways!

Fog? Crosswinds over 24kts? That'll be NO flights a day then.

And if EZ have the Island to themselves, I wonder just how long they'll accept paying any landing fees at all......That's not a Loco weakness either.

If the Airport is losing money now, how much will it cost to service three daily A319s paying nothing to land?

Enjoy the choice this summer. Doubt we'll have it this good much longer.

[manx crab]

I think the EZY cancellations during the January snow showed what the future holds if they manage to push Flybe of the Island.

You would like to think that the Airport Directress is bright enough to see this and act accordingly.

I havent flow with EZY from the Island for 2 years, quiet simply because the flight times are crap and the cost of the extra overnight stays is more that the fare difference.

The BA service to LCY hasnt been too reliable in the mornings recently either from what I have seen.

[IOMspotter]

What was the cause of the reported engine fire in the SAAB on Sunday night?:confused:

[Brushtype4]

Simply torching due APU shutdown during engine start.

[virginblue]

Any rumblings on the rock as a result of today's news that Flybe is apparently putting all its LGW slots on the market in exchange for 20m GBP? I suspect that the prospect of this happening must have caused some serious gasping on the airport's executive floor....

Realistically, by LCC standards the route with its 120.000 annual pax would be struggling to justify three daily A319 flights by easyjet who are the only airline that could come to the rescue for IOM. So I guess we would be looking at a morning and an evening departure plus a couple of weekly noon-time depatures thrown in.

[Hansol]

Why would anyone pay money for Flybe's Gatwick slots? If they are in difficulty just stand back and pick them up for free!

[davidjohnson6]

Hansol - in the case where there is only 1 credible buyer for slots, it's possible to play a waiting game. When there are 2 or more rival credible buyers for the slots, the strategy of playing a waiting game becomes more risky, particularly when the slots are in high demand and supply is relatively low.
You might wish to take a look at page 11 of this report from ACL to get an idea of general slot scarcity.
http://www.acl-uk.org/UserFiles/File/LGW%20S13%20Start%20of%20Season%20Report.pdf

At Gatwick, there are at least 3 airlines that would be interested in a large number of slots and several other airlines that might be interested in a few slots. We thus have a competitive auction for one of the assets of a struggling company without taking on any of the undesired liabilities. If Easyjet (for example) were to just wait, there is a plausible chance that IAG or Ryanair would make a bid for Flybe's slots instead.

[Hansol]

All valid points, however if Flybe were trying to sell their slots I imagine the stock market would react adversely, so it would be a difficult strategy for them. Recent experience suggests that there is no pent up demand for Gatwick slots.

[Tonyq]

In response to VB's original question at #2443, the local hacks here don't seem to have picked up on this at all, so no informed or official comment so far.

One way or another, something had to give on IOM-LGW since easyJet muscled into FlyBe's 'territory' last year and I suspect that a total FlyBe surrender at LGW will get the IOM Airport Management off the hook, compared with a scenario where IOM-LGW is canned by FlyBe in isolation.

However, if those LGW slots do go, then it may be a catalyst for the end of the IOM base. With no LGW, or a credible London market replacement, the scale of the FlyBe's IOM base would reduce to the point where they might call it a day on LPL too, and run MAN from the other end. SOU, LTN and BRS are just marginal cost fillers, which would likely disappear too.

So quite scary prospects both for employees, and for regular travellers who have become used to choice and some of the cheapest fares the IOM has ever seen.

[Capt. Horrendous]

Flybe share price up by 15% today - so the market seems to view the possible sale of some or all of the LGW slots as positive. Note that Flybe have said some OR all.

As has been mentioned previously, should Flybe withdraw from the IOM - LGW service, the IOM Government's Open Skies Policy will have failed in its attempt to promote a 'frequent and reliable' air service. The IOM passenger market is finite, and there will not be enough business to support more than two 158 seat A319 LGW rotations per day. A 50 % reduction in the previous frequency.

[Tonyq]

So, maybe the brave new world on London-IOM could look something like this:-

BA IOM-LCY x 3 with E175, to properly service the business traffic, with early/late departures, at appropriate fares
EZY IOM-LGW x 2 with A319 but no early departure ex-IOM or late ex-LGW - LCC model
BE IOM-LTN/SEN/STN x 1 or 2 off peak, using a/c based elsewhere

Long haul or European connecting traffic steered via MAN or DUB...........

As a totally off the wall idea, what is the likelihood of EZY being interested in buying BE and turning it into 'easyLite' and using all those forthcoming E175's to service lighter routes, with the EZY model?

[virginblue]

BE do not have aircraft based at STN, SEN or LTN, so I do not see how this could work unless they find some other work for an aircraft based there (e.g. 3x daily LTN-NQY + 1x daily LTN-IOM)

[Tonyq]

I know that. The comment was based on the presumption that BE would work them from, say, JER, as happens in reverse at the moment, or from MAN. i.e. MAN-IOM-SEN-IOM-MAN etc.

[JC25]

While people are bouncing ideas around, there is a possibility that BE will agree to sell a number of slots to EZY on the condition that they leave certain routes to Flybe. There is no confirmation of how many slots Flybe want to dispose of at LGW - the figure of 25 pairs is how many they currently have, not necessarily how many are for sale.

It would of course depend on whether Flybe see potential to make money on the route(s) in question and whether EZY are happy to give up one or two rather minor markets to secure a significant number of new slots.

I can just about see a deal where EZY leave the LGW-IOM (and maybe LGW-INV) route for example and Flybe continue it as they did/do. It would of course be at the expense of other LGW routes...

Pure speculation on my part. I honestly can't decide in my head what I think they will do.

[lfc84]

how do costs at LGW relate to IOM open sky policy?

the story here is about LGW wanting to get rid of 'smaller' aircraft.

[Rob Courtney]

While people are bouncing ideas around, there is a possibility that BE will agree to sell a number of slots to EZY on the condition that they leave certain routes to Flybe.

I think that may be viewed as going against competition law so its unlikely

[JC25]

Wondered about the legality of it with regard to competition laws.

Perhaps while getting coffee from the vending machine Mr EZY will casually mention to Mr BE that they plan to drop certain routes if the deal is successful to free up aircraft for the new slots.

Nudge nudge, wink wink.

I may be a bit cynical, but I would think smelly little deals are often done in cases like this. Or maybe I just watch too many conspiracy films.... :ugh:

[Capt. Horrendous]

@ LFC84 - possibly because the competition on the LGW route has reduced Flybe's revenues on it to a point where it cannot cover the additional cost of operating there. The slots are not being sold as a job lot necessarily, and I would have thought it unlikely that any route that was turning a decent profit would have its slots sold.

[RVF750]

Gatwick Airport have taken every penny of profit from flybe with these new charges, and then some...

[IOMspotter]

Don't forget who is Flybe's 20% shareholder. The 3 way dirty deal has been done. Flybe exit Lgw and get the £20m they need. Ezy get the slots they want and lay off flybe.:D Flybe takes over Ba s slots to Lcy and starts Gsy Lcy in readiness to take over bacityflyer. :eek:Ba puts Lcy into friendly hands so they can focus on fortress Lhr:{ IoM gets :mad: stuffed

[RVF750]

Don't think so....but it will make tomorrow's meeting interesting re open skies...

[IOMspotter]

Q213. Mr Butt: What are your plans for the future in the Isle of Man? Are you still looking at the market to see whether you expand or not?


Miss Gayward: As I say, our strategy is to join the dots. So we would be keen and always looking at new opportunities, and because our Liverpool route has performed very satisfactorily and we are very pleased with the way that Gatwick is performing, we are constantly looking at new opportunities. I cannot say that there is anything that we are able to announce today because we are just not in that position, but we are looking at other opportunities.:p

[IOMspotter]

FlyBe pulling out LGW in March. That will be the end of the base here:{

[Capt. Horrendous]

Err, don't think so. A two aircraft (same type) base is a sustainable entity, unless you know something that I don't.

[Drink Up Thee Cider]

Miss Gayward: As I say, our strategy is to join the dots. So we would be keen and always looking at new opportunities, and because our Liverpool route has performed very satisfactorily and we are very pleased with the way that Gatwick is performing, we are constantly looking at new opportunities. I cannot say that there is anything that we are able to announce today because we are just not in that position, but we are looking at other opportunities


She's hardly likely to suggest different, is she? :ugh: They'll use those slots to serve Europe and anyone who thinks any different is deluded.

[Tonyq]

Spotter - If you read the BE statement properly, it specifically says that 'no other routes from the seven airports involved will be affected.'

BE has several 2 A/C bases across their network.

The IOM-London market, as a whole, is significant. If EZY do walk away, and there's no sensible reason to think they will, after having established a foothold here, then someone else will pick up the slack from LTN, SEN or STN.

We had this 'the end of the World is nigh' hysteria when the LHR slots were lost, but people adapt.........

Connecting traffic well served via MAN, DUB and, to an extent, LCY.

[Tinwald]

Cap'n H 2 aircraft dont need 26 pilots unless your all going to fly 1 day a week.:hmm:

[Capt. Horrendous]

Correct - and there won't be. I would be surprised if there are any forced base changes required by March 14.

[IOMspotter]

Captain H. Shurely you dont think the LPL situation is sustainable? MAN will be served with a MAN based aircraft. Im not happy but you gotta wake up to the difference between whats said by airline PR people and whats gonna happen.:confused:

[Capt. Horrendous]

Currently Liverpool and Manchester are profitable routes for Flybe, which makes the IOM base still viable.

That may or may not continue to be the case.

[manx crab]

This assumes that Flybe are not going to just fly to another "London" airport.

[JC25]

INV has only two based aircraft now (likely one after LGW pull out), ABZ has only one based aircraft now as does NCL (likely zero after the pull out). So there is no reason to assume that just as one route is being dumped from IOM that the base will closed.

There is no reason that a two aircraft base at IOM can't be sustained as long as the routes are paying their way.

IOM-MAN wouldn't work from a MAN based aircraft as it wouldn't feed info the hub/connection banks at MAN so I'd say its very likely it will stay as an IOM based route.

We may even see BHX return to an IOM based aircraft which would need the third aircraft to remain on the Island.

Fact is, we just don't know and jumping to conclusions does no one any good, particularly those staff who are IOM based.

[EI-BUD]

Nothing to stop EZY doing a LPL IOM early flight and onwards to LGW. Who knows EZY may even scale back operations on competing BE routes.

An early short LPL IOM flight could mean say a 0730 IOM LGW service, or perhaps now that IOM London will be in terms of scale easyJet's territory they could change the route to an x2/3 daily IOM LTN or SEN service. I'd put my bets on LTN.

BE may establish a presence at STN or LTN alternatively.

EI-BUD

[Tonyq]

Not mentioned on here, as far as I can see, but EDI and GLA direct are no longer in the booking engine after 30th June, with only connections via MAN.

That's another two longstanding routes canned, unless Citywing fancy a crack........

[lfc84]

if people spent as much time flying as they do on forums the routes might have more passengers

[ericlday]

Sensible suggestion lfc84.

[GLOworm]

Airport announces withdrawal of EDI and GLA

[lfc84]

an alternative

http://img835.imageshack.us/img835/9398/piczf.jpg

[virginblue]

So in 2014 it will look like this unless a white knight appears?


Aer Lingus Regional: Dublin
BA CityFlyer: London-City
Citywing: Belfast-City, Blackpool, Gloucestershire, Newcastle
EasyJet: Liverpool, London-Gatwick
Flybe: Birmingham, Liverpool, Manchester, Southampton

[tarnehat]

I wouldn't be too sure about SOU either, that's just seasonal atm...

Dublin-IOM isn't loaded for the Winter, that might disappear so FlyBe might have a go there.

Citywing might take on at least one of the Scottish routes, it's about the right sized aircraft for a frequent service but GLA/EDI may be too expensive for them

[lfc84]

@tarnehat

i suggest you read post 1803 in the dublin thread

[Skipness One Echo]

Airport announces withdrawal of EDI and GLA
GLA goes back way further than EDI, I recall the Manx SD360s on that with ATPs on weekends. What killed profits? It's Loganair not flybe on this one.

[IOMspotter]

not according to Logies crew. They reckon its FlyBe killed it by chopping prices on the IOM MAN EDI/GLA sectors and undercutting them and its caused quite a lot of bad feeling inside.:{

[bonatti]

Im sure i read somewhere that Loganair had said the reason was due to increased operating costs and that revenue had remained static.

[IOMspotter]

Minister of Infrastructure Hon David Cretney explained "The timing of the Loganair decision to cease both Scottish services to the Island, is entirely coincidental with the news received earlier this week that Flybe have sold off their arrival and departure slots at Gatwick to EasyJet.

The Department has been in discussion with Loganair over recent weeks, regarding the economies of the route and the declining passenger figures."

Loganair have been operating services from Edinburgh and Glasgow since 2004, however, over the last 3-4 years whilst their revenue has remained static, their operating costs have increased by around 20%.

The Minister continued "It will be a great shame to see Loganair pull off our Scottish routes, however, they cite a culmination of the route costs, the UK economy and the downturn in higher yielding traffic, as the main factors in coming to this decision. Even if the Department were to offer no airport charges at Ronaldsway for the summer, which is something we could not do without offering the same to all of our airline customers, both the routes would still lose money. If the Department can attract a new operator on the route, which we hope to do, then we need to attract passengers to use the flights, or else we will lose the routes permanently.

[lfc84]

interesting news about INV, perhaps they'll do the same for IOM ?

BBC News - Easyjet guarantees Inverness routes (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-23058917)

[tarnehat]

IOM to LCY is canx as of October 27th it looks like, and going down to single daily on E170 from Sept.

[manxregional monkey]

BMI Regional...

S13 IOM STN twice daily 12345 Single 67

S13 IOM BHX Once daily 1-7

[lfc84]

Really....S13 ?

[Cyrano]

BMI Regional...

S13 IOM STN twice daily 12345 Single 67

S13 IOM BHX Once daily 1-7

I imagine you mean S14, and this is very interesting if true. Is this just a rumour or something more concrete (perhaps with £££ support from the authorities)?

I'd have thought that in S14, when flyBE and BACF will both be gone from IOM-LON, there would be enough traffic (including business trafffic looking for day returns) to justify a twice-daily easyJet LGW service. No?

[manxregional monkey]

Brain-fart - S14. Now is S13.

From a fairly reliable source. It may not be 100% to happen just now, but it is being discussed by some.

I would be very surprised if Easy were to use their newly aquired 'peak time' slots for IOM - that is the times the business community need.

[Capt. Horrendous]

A fairly reliable source, discussed by some and not 100% likely to happen yet?

That's Ok - this is a rumour network after all!

[Copenhagen]

And IOM LON operator wheel keeps turning...

Manx -> BRA -> FlyBe -> Aer Arann -> BA -> BMIR

As many expected, EasyJet comes in, and upsets the yield of everyone else. The power of competition shows its benefits and issues. The E135 cannot compete against an A319. Perhaps the AT76 can?

In one swift movement, could IOM LON be down to a daily frequency?

[RVF750]

E135/145 would be a nightmare on IOM routes...one whiff of Ice on the decent and around they turn and scuttle off home. Flybe used the BAConect E145 for a short while on IOM-MAN route while they converted local crews to the Q400. Not a good idea....

[EMB-145LR]

Absolute rubbish! The 145 is extremely capable in icing. I operate the thing in and out of Canadian and North American cities day in day out during the winter and have never encountered a single problem. I used to operate into the IOM all the time in a turboprop and the icing was never significantly awful. The 145 would handle IOM a lot better than the D328s used to in the EuroManx days.

[tallaonehotel]

EMB-145LR, i'll second your post.
Every Friday night a 145 would trundle in for MX.
Rain, hail or shine. Never heard any crews complaining.

[Han 1st Solo]

Sorry guys but D & T is right, if memory serves the performance penalties for landing after an ice encounter on a wet runway as well brought the max landing weight way down on the 145 into the IOM, to the point where as D & T says you just had to turn around and go home. What difference the runway extension would now make I don't know.

[Capt. Horrendous]

Having operated the 145 into the IOM for both BACON and Flybe, I can assure you that the increased vref speeds would not be an issue with the increased LDA here now. Performance was only marginally compromised at higher weights back then, and it took a combination of a wet runway, no hwc and high landing weights plus an ice detect to cause problems

It is a flaw in the 145, that if you'd had an ice detect anywhere along the route, you are committed to landing with enhanced vref speeds, even if it is 30 degrees and cavok.

[j41cac]

Saab off to Dusseldorf for BA so only one flight a day to LCY for the for seeable future. Will there be any aircraft bases left on the Rock come next year

[jamestkirk]

I looked at the BA website. It looks as though the IOM-LCY is totally finished after the 27/10.

[Flightrider]

It does rather look as though the Open Skies policy has now completely stuffed the island's air links. The only services to London which appear to have any certainty around them for next summer are a single daily easyJet LGW operation and a single daily Flybe LTN service. Of course, more flights may be added before we get to that point, but loss of both frequent links in the form of the Flybe LGW and CityFlyer LCY services must be a huge concern.

If Guernsey needed any vindication of their licensing policy, I'd say that the Isle of Man has just provided it in shovelfuls.

[M-JCS]

The problem is that a licensing regime can prevent carriers from serving an airport, but it cannot prevent carriers from leaving an airport, especially when the route does not pay for itself or the carrier experiences financial difficulty otherwise. Only an airport's long-term contract with a carrier can lend a bit of protection to route consistency. However, the IOM government has not given much effort to these things in the past and is not likely to in the future either unless forced into a corner.