Originally Posted by Albert Hall (Post 11621192)

Indeed, results can be skewed by factors such as weather disruption and the like. But I think the point I’d make is that if you come back in 12 months time, the situation may well be beyond salvation far sooner than that timeline plays out.

Originally Posted by Albert Hall (Post 11621180)

Several things to say. The first is that I had not clocked your earlier post, so can truthfully say the answer to your indignant “did you not see this” post is that I indeed had not. These things do happen.

The second point is that after seeing your post, I went back to the CAA statistics to make sure I wasn’t missing anything more. We now have six data points (three months Nov/Dec/Jan for two routes, GLA & BFS) to take a view on how this is going.

The one data point of the six you’ve called out is the only one which supports your view. The other five all support mine. So whilst you are correct in saying easyJet doesn’t always eat into traffic of other airlines, the weight of evidence is that for most of the time, it does.

Thirdly, have a look at the stats. easyJet’s January pax per flight on BFS (using the CAA OTP stats for the number of sectors flown) is 89. Even if all are its smallest aircraft then that’s a 57% load factor which is 25 points below its network average for the time of year. That’s an awful performance.

It’s harder to tell on Glasgow exactly what the situation between the two carriers is, but the January figures show Loganair operating 143 sectors versus last year’s 144 (so to all intents and purposes, the same). When you tot this up, seat capacity on GLA-SOU has increased by 40% in January but pax numbers have increased by only 15%. Nearly 3,000 more seats have gone into the market for a net growth of 700 more passengers carried.

If easyJet is carrying the same number of pax per flight on GLA as BFS (an assumption in the absence of any other data) then its load factor is similarly awful at about 57% and Loganair’s has dropped from 74% to 60%.

Fourthly, if you look at revenues, average selling fares have dropped certainly on the days when easyJet is flying (and those days are about to increase as we go into the summer schedule). If the average fare has dropped by 15% and volume goes up by 15%, total income from the route has stood still. But there are more aircraft flying with more direct operating costs to be covered than before.

To use an American phrase beloved of a different commentary site, this is a total dumpster fire. The economics of this for both the existing airlines and easyJet look awful, and for the airport, it has certainly singed if not burned bridges on all sides.

So accepting that there is one piece of data out of six which says things might be OK, the other five bits of data all paint a picture of a market in total turmoil and airline economics on all sides under serious stress. I stick by my views.

The vehemence of your reply does make me wonder if you work for AGS though!

Originally Posted by Rivet Joint (Post 11621296)

Well it’s pleasing that you have done some research before posting this time and this thread would be much better if more people did that. The fact remains that the Easy routes are going daily over the summer and Emerald and Logan aren’t dropping any rotations and in fact Emerald appear to be going 3 daily. If Easy were so destructive would we not see rotations being dropped or worse still Logan and Emerald stop serving the routes? The status quo hasn’t changed at all. When we start seeing signs of that then perhaps we can analyse whether it’s a good or bad thing. I think for the vast majority it’s a good thing if there is more Easy.

I share everyone’s disappointment at the lack of routes at the moment but the runway was only finished less than a year ago. I also don’t think SOU is competing on a level playing field. SOU is pretty much a pure commercial aviation airport and cannot offer crazy cheap rates to airlines as it has few other revenue streams. Compare this with Bournemouth that has all its other revenue streams and it can afford to offer airlines crazy cheap fees. It’s no surprise that FR is the main operator there.

it’s still early days though. The one thing I do find strange is Easy not moving all its GVA flights from BOH to SOU. Clearly they are not going to base in BOH with FR there so start concentrating on SOU.

Originally Posted by Rivet Joint (Post 11621296)

Well it’s pleasing that you have done some research before posting this time and this thread would be much better if more people did that. The fact remains that the Easy routes are going daily over the summer and Emerald and Logan aren’t dropping any rotations and in fact Emerald appear to be going 3 daily.

Originally Posted by Sharklet_321 (Post 11620709)

Southampton 12 month running total was 755,000 in Dec and has only moved marginally to 758k in January 2024. It will need to move significantly in April-October to ensure it get's to 900,000 but I doubt it will go above 950,000 for the year.

With easyJet reducing frequency on Belfast & Glasgow-Southampton back to thrice/twice weekly in the winter, that will be a large passenger shortfall in this calendar yr.

Originally Posted by SouthernAlliance (Post 11621312)

why would they do that when they can maximise strong loads and yields from both airports. Huge appetite from the communities on the south coast for skiing in the Alps so easyJet are surely fulfilling demand for this type of leisure market

Originally Posted by Albert Hall (Post 11621324)

Loganair has cut though - down from four to three daily on GLA. They've dropped one flight every day which is pretty much at the times that easyJet are flying, although the EZY schedule chops and changes throughout the summer, which at least gives the appearance that it's a response to the increased GLA-SOU. EDI has also reduced (from five to four) but the removal is the SOU nightstopper - so presumably related to the crew and aircraft issues that they sound to be having.

Originally Posted by 22/04 (Post 11623207)

I don't think you understand how things work - the airline will go where there is money to be made. Look at where Ryanair fly to from Stansted and Luton - Kerry, Dublin, Cork, Kerry, Kaunus, Alicante etc. etc. By your logic they wouldn't do this would they?

Originally Posted by LTNman (Post 11623625)

We can expect a total meltdown here from Rivet Joint.

Originally Posted by The Nutts Mutts (Post 11623631)

I also wonder if perhaps they were holding off to see if SOU got rid of their performance limitations and potentially increased their opening hours. Now that neither of those things have really happened despite the runway extension, Jet2 have made a decision and plumped for BOH as the better candidate on the south coast.