The CAA cannot override a TPO. I can’t see the government getting involved either, as it is a function of the local council to impose or revoke a TPO and they are not cooperating.
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not in an election year for sure.................................
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We’re talking crown reduction on 25 trees, not swathes of deforestation. However SCC are not known to be the airports biggest supporter so who knows
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Originally Posted by SouthernAlliance
(Post 11620168)
We’re talking crown reduction on 25 trees, not swathes of deforestation. However SCC are not known to be the airports biggest supporter so who knows
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Originally Posted by RW20
(Post 11620190)
On a separate note Easy announce Winter flights tomorrow ,is there any hope of anything new for SOU?
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S24 Summary
Usual summary of routes for S24. I've generally looked at early April and mid August to get a rough idea of the frequency variations. Good to see Aer Lingus increase frequencies from June, I think the overall capacity to Belfast now exceeds what Flybe used to offer on the route. Overall it is a little lower in departures than last year, but most of the increased frequencies are on larger aircraft which should more than make up for the difference in capacity terms.
Aer Lingus Regional Belfast City - 13-20 weekly AT7 Dublin - 13-14 weekly AT7 Aurigny Alderney - 14 weekly D28 Guernsey - 7 weekly AT7 BA Cityflyer Bergerac - 1 weekly E90 Faro - 1 weekly E90 Malaga - 1 weekly E90 Palma - 1 weekly E90 Blue Islands Guernsey - 16 weekly AT7 Jersey - 22 weekly AT7 Eastern Airways Paris CDG (New) - 6 weekly AT7 (from 01/04) easyJet Alicante (New) - 1 weekly 319 (from 31/03) Belfast International - 5 weekly 319/320 Faro (New) - 1 weekly 320 (from 06/06) Glasgow - 2-7 weekly 319/320 Palma (New) - 2 weekly 319/320 (from 29/04) KLM Amsterdam - 13-20 weekly E75/E90 Loganair Edinburgh - 21-26 weekly ER4 Glasgow - 18-21 weekly ER4 Newcastle - 13-15 weekly ER4 TUI Palma - 2 weekly E90 (operated by BA Cityflyer) Summary 171-195 weekly departures (up to 199 in S23, 321-344 in S19) 24-28 average daily departures (up to 28 in S23, 46-49 in S19) |
Originally Posted by adfly
(Post 11620425)
Usual summary of routes for S24. I've generally looked at early April and mid August to get a rough idea of the frequency variations. Good to see Aer Lingus increase frequencies from June, I think the overall capacity to Belfast now exceeds what Flybe used to offer on the route. Overall it is a little lower in departures than last year, but most of the increased frequencies are on larger aircraft which should more than make up for the difference in capacity terms.
Aer Lingus Regional Belfast City - 13-20 weekly AT7 Dublin - 13-14 weekly AT7 Aurigny Alderney - 14 weekly D28 Guernsey - 7 weekly AT7 BA Cityflyer Bergerac - 1 weekly E90 Faro - 1 weekly E90 Malaga - 1 weekly E90 Palma - 1 weekly E90 Blue Islands Guernsey - 16 weekly AT7 Jersey - 22 weekly AT7 Eastern Airways Paris CDG (New) - 6 weekly AT7 (from 01/04) easyJet Alicante (New) - 1 weekly 319 (from 31/03) Belfast International - 5 weekly 319/320 Faro (New) - 1 weekly 320 (from 06/06) Glasgow - 2-7 weekly 319/320 Palma (New) - 2 weekly 319/320 (from 29/04) KLM Amsterdam - 13-20 weekly E75/E90 Loganair Edinburgh - 21-26 weekly ER4 Glasgow - 18-21 weekly ER4 Newcastle - 13-15 weekly ER4 TUI Palma - 2 weekly E90 (operated by BA Cityflyer) Summary 171-195 weekly departures (up to 199 in S23, 321-344 in S19) 24-28 average daily departures (up to 28 in S23, 46-49 in S19) |
Originally Posted by RW20
(Post 11620518)
A good summary,how does that reflect on Pax numbers bearing in mind that SOU is well short of the break even 1.2 mill mark
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Southampton 12 month running total was 755,000 in Dec and has only moved marginally to 758k in January 2024. It will need to move significantly in April-October to ensure it get's to 900,000 but I doubt it will go above 950,000 for the year.
With easyJet reducing frequency on Belfast & Glasgow-Southampton back to thrice/twice weekly in the winter, that will be a large passenger shortfall in this calendar yr. |
Originally Posted by Sharklet_321
(Post 11620709)
Southampton 12 month running total was 755,000 in Dec and has only moved marginally to 758k in January 2024. It will need to move significantly in April-October to ensure it get's to 900,000 but I doubt it will go above 950,000 for the year.
With easyJet reducing frequency on Belfast & Glasgow-Southampton back to thrice/twice weekly in the winter, that will be a large passenger shortfall in this calendar yr. |
Originally Posted by Sharklet_321
(Post 11620709)
Southampton 12 month running total was 755,000 in Dec and has only moved marginally to 758k in January 2024. It will need to move significantly in April-October to ensure it get's to 900,000 but I doubt it will go above 950,000 for the year.
With easyJet reducing frequency on Belfast & Glasgow-Southampton back to thrice/twice weekly in the winter, that will be a large passenger shortfall in this calendar yr. |
Based on the CAA numbers earlier in the thread, this isn’t looking great. The rolling annual pax figures should be showing some half decent upward trend if the easyJet BFS and GLA flights are truly creating a new market. They’re nearly static which says loud and clear that all easyJet has done so far is cannibalise passenger numbers from existing operators, exactly as I had feared.
What a mess. You have easyJet therefore not doing particularly well and a very pissed off bunch of existing airlines like Loganair and Emerald who will be raging at the airport management. Who is responsible for this mess? |
Originally Posted by Albert Hall
(Post 11620887)
Based on the CAA numbers earlier in the thread, this isn’t looking great. The rolling annual pax figures should be showing some half decent upward trend if the easyJet BFS and GLA flights are truly creating a new market. They’re nearly static which says loud and clear that all easyJet has done so far is cannibalise passenger numbers from existing operators, exactly as I had feared.
What a mess. You have easyJet therefore not doing particularly well and a very pissed off bunch of existing airlines like Loganair and Emerald who will be raging at the airport management. Who is responsible for this mess? Really its very early days for any verdict on the runway extension. Two years down the line and the wisdom or otherwise will become clearer. Hopefully the owners are playing the long game. |
Originally Posted by Albert Hall
(Post 11620887)
Based on the CAA numbers earlier in the thread, this isn’t looking great. The rolling annual pax figures should be showing some half decent upward trend if the easyJet BFS and GLA flights are truly creating a new market. They’re nearly static which says loud and clear that all easyJet has done so far is cannibalise passenger numbers from existing operators, exactly as I had feared.
What a mess. You have easyJet therefore not doing particularly well and a very pissed off bunch of existing airlines like Loganair and Emerald who will be raging at the airport management. Who is responsible for this mess? |
It's really much too early to be gloomy; no one can tell what 2024 will bring. Perhaps, rather that looking at Southampton alone, it's instructive to consider AGS as a whole, Southampton being the smallest airport of the group. Recovery from the pandemic is not great, but neither is it a disaster.
https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....1a1697d6bf.png https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....f7542e7483.png |
AGS is an underperformer, look at how GLA, once the undisputed gateway to Scotland now does against EDI.
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Originally Posted by Albert Hall
(Post 11620887)
Based on the CAA numbers earlier in the thread, this isn’t looking great. The rolling annual pax figures should be showing some half decent upward trend if the easyJet BFS and GLA flights are truly creating a new market. They’re nearly static which says loud and clear that all easyJet has done so far is cannibalise passenger numbers from existing operators, exactly as I had feared.
What a mess. You have easyJet therefore not doing particularly well and a very pissed off bunch of existing airlines like Loganair and Emerald who will be raging at the airport management. Who is responsible for this mess? Let me post it again: “Interestingly the BHD route saw a 12% increase in December to 7,080 passengers despite EZY operating to BFS with 2,638. Proof that EZY doesn’t always take passengers away from other carriers?“ What do you have to say faced with the indisputable facts above? |
In January BHD was down 4%, GLA up 6%.(both carriers combined)
By comparison where EZY don’t compete. EDI was down 21%, NCL also down 21%, Jersey down 9%, Guernsey up 1%, Alderney down 6%, Manchester down 100% |
Originally Posted by Rivet Joint
(Post 11621105)
What do you have to say faced with the indisputable facts above?
The second point is that after seeing your post, I went back to the CAA statistics to make sure I wasn’t missing anything more. We now have six data points (three months Nov/Dec/Jan for two routes, GLA & BFS) to take a view on how this is going. The one data point of the six you’ve called out is the only one which supports your view. The other five all support mine. So whilst you are correct in saying easyJet doesn’t always eat into traffic of other airlines, the weight of evidence is that for most of the time, it does. Thirdly, have a look at the stats. easyJet’s January pax per flight on BFS (using the CAA OTP stats for the number of sectors flown) is 89. Even if all are its smallest aircraft then that’s a 57% load factor which is 25 points below its network average for the time of year. That’s an awful performance. It’s harder to tell on Glasgow exactly what the situation between the two carriers is, but the January figures show Loganair operating 143 sectors versus last year’s 144 (so to all intents and purposes, the same). When you tot this up, seat capacity on GLA-SOU has increased by 40% in January but pax numbers have increased by only 15%. Nearly 3,000 more seats have gone into the market for a net growth of 700 more passengers carried. If easyJet is carrying the same number of pax per flight on GLA as BFS (an assumption in the absence of any other data) then its load factor is similarly awful at about 57% and Loganair’s has dropped from 74% to 60%. Fourthly, if you look at revenues, average selling fares have dropped certainly on the days when easyJet is flying (and those days are about to increase as we go into the summer schedule). If the average fare has dropped by 15% and volume goes up by 15%, total income from the route has stood still. But there are more aircraft flying with more direct operating costs to be covered than before. To use an American phrase beloved of a different commentary site, this is a total dumpster fire. The economics of this for both the existing airlines and easyJet look awful, and for the airport, it has certainly singed if not burned bridges on all sides. So accepting that there is one piece of data out of six which says things might be OK, the other five bits of data all paint a picture of a market in total turmoil and airline economics on all sides under serious stress. I stick by my views. The vehemence of your reply does make me wonder if you work for AGS though! |
Are six results any more valid than one? Let's come back in 12 months or so.
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