Skipness One Foxtrot

I beg to differ on point 2. The Q400 was neither expensive or unreliable. The problems were over priced leases through other Walker Trust companies, on both Dashes and particularly the Emb175s. the fact they laid off so many line engineers and made preventative maintenance a third party cost in the process and any aircraft if not looked after will become unreliable. When they are the Q400 flies 10 sectors a day so will cycle quickly and will always appear to break more often compared to aircraft that fly 4 sectors.

New owners granted a UK AOC - will be interesting to see the name on the cert.

how do you know?

I think that might be fake news (are we still allowed to use that expression in a post-Trump era?) but do not know for sure. The new operator has an aircraft registered to it, but it would be very surprising to see a Type A AOC granted when the only aircraft is in a hangar in Zagreb. That would be breaking new ground indeed.

Unless the rules have changed off late, you have to conduct a proving flight to be granted an AoC.

The proving flight does not have to be carried out in the actual aircraft the airline will use in service. A dry leased example is adequate. The CAA is looking at operational competency, not the aircraft itself.

Agreed but has it been carried out?

I suspect they have leased the cheapest aircraft they have found, run a few proving flights to get the AOC to release the slots, sell the slots, close the ‘airline’. Hopefully I am not being too cynical.

Is there a market for slots at the moment?

I would have thought that given how avidly the progress of Flybe 2 is followed on pprune that any AOC proving flight would have been commented on here.

In my humble opinion anybody thinking of investing in this operation wants there head testing.

gkmeech

Well, all they have to do first is (aledjelly (sic)) win a court case against IAG to prove they own the slots and then try to flog them in a market where, thanks to CV19, there is probably not much demand for the next year or so.

As business plans go it doesn't seem a huge winner. But maybe a gamble worth taking considering the potential rewards?

Or maybe they just want to start up an airline based on the best of what Flybe had and using the slot portfolio.

cavokblues

But the basis that the slots were granted is quite clear;

1.1.3. Grandfathering rights

644. As a general rule, the slots obtained by a prospective entrant must be operated on the city pair(s) for which they have been requested from IAG and cannot be used on another city pair unless the prospective entrant has operated them during at least six full consecutive IATA seasons ("the Utilisation Period").272 The prospective entrant would be deemed to have grandfathering rights for the slots once appropriate use of the slots has been made on the city pairs at issue, for the Utilisation Period. Once the Utilisation Period has elapsed, the prospective entrant would be entitled to use the slots obtained on the basis of the Commitments exclusively to operate services on any route connecting London with any other part of Europe (including Aberdeen and Edinburgh), or on London-Moscow, London-Cairo and London-Riyadh.

645. During the Utilisation Period, the prospective entrant shall not be entitled to transfer, assign, sell, swap or charge in breach of the Commitments any slots obtained from IAG (except for changes to any such slots which are within the twenty/sixty minutes time window and which have been agreed with the slot coordinator.). Provisions on misuse of slots also apply. In the event of a misuse, the prospective entrant shall have thirty days after such notice to cure the misuse, failure to which gives IAG the right to terminate the agreement and obtain restitution of the slots.
EC Ruling

So for the slots to become Flybe’s they would have to operate them for 6 full concecutive IATA seasons. Flybe were in their 6th season at LHR when they failed, but hadn’t completed the full season. And obviously haven’t operated the slots for the subsequent 2 IATA seasons since.

Even if Flybe’s Administrators win their case, which I have my doubts about, they can only ever be operated to European destinations, plus Moscow, Cairo or Riyadh. So that eliminates their appeal to the types of airline that have recently been spending big money for LHR slots.

Also explains why the old story that Virgin Little Red was just a ruse to get the slots for long haul never held water, and why Virgin never completed the 6 seasons to be able to convert the slots. They would have been able to use them elsewhere, but never outside those geographic restrictions.

There is a further important provision in the remedy commitments which is likely to be relevant here. This is not specified as being valid for the Utilisation Period only but rather in perpetuity:

I do not know for sure but my guess is that this case surrounds this wording and whether Flybe (or now its Administrators) have or do not have the right to sell the slots after the defined period of operation on the Aberdeen and Edinburgh routes. It suggests not but as it is not totally explicit, it may be possible to run a legal case to that effect. Obviously unless anyone has a copy of it, the Slot Release Agreement might contain some further wording to clear up this position.

I missed this myself, apologies if common knowledge, but just seen that according to a report by the airline's administrators they were awarded grandathering rights back in August, a decision IAG are challenging.

They state 'The London Heathrow slots were appropriated by International Airlines Group (“IAG”) following the
Company’s insolvency. The Joint Administrators are challenging IAG’s actions in doing so. In
addition, the European Commission granted Flybe grandfathering rights for the London Heathrow
landing slots on 4 August 2020.
In light of the ongoing dispute with IAG, we are unable to comment further on the Company’s
prospects for realising value from this asset at present. However, we will provide creditors with a
further update in the next progress report, including comment on any realisations that may be
available for distribution to the Company’s unsecured creditors.'

So, even if they are successful the administrators sound like they will use any proceeds they may make to cover some of the unpaid debts.

So, it does seem unlikely any revival plan is centred around the Heathrow slots.

https://assets.ey.com/content/dam/ey...ptember-20.pdf

Slightly ironic that BA is getting so precious about these slots when over the years, they have bought up regional airlines, relieved them of their Heathrow slots and then dumped them. Some of these airlines eventually ended up as parts of Flybe. . Brymon, Manx, BRAL etc.

Downwind_Left

Nice analysis. To give a different spin on it though. If Flybe/Flybe2.0 were to strike a deal with a major European airline there could be some tactical manipulation of these slots. Say KLM were to buy the slots, which as you say can only be used on European routes. Well KLM already have LHR slots for their AMS flights, so they use the new "Flybe" slots on the LHR-AMS route, satisfying the European requirement, and then they are free to sell their original slot to anyone they like, for instance a LH carrier who flies into Heathrow.

Of course this all depends on whether there are restrictions around the existing European slots that airlines like KLM/AF/LH etc already have.

UK CAA to consider revoking flybe.'s OL, route rights https://www.ch-aviation.com/images/s...c2c180907f.jpg

The United Kingdom Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) plans to revoke all remaining of flybe's remaining certificates, including its Operating Licence (OL) and all associated scheduled and charter route authorities.

The hearing has been tentatively scheduled for February 26, 2021.

Following flybe.'s collapse in March 2020, the regulator initiated proceedings to revoke the OL and route authorities in mid-April 2020. It ultimately withdrew the decision due to a retroactive change in European Union laws, allowing the dormant carrier to retain the licence.

However, following its acquisition of flybe., Cyrus Capital-backed Thyme Opco applied for a new OL and route authorities under its own name on December 1, 2020. Although it pledged to restart the regional carrier under the old brand, it now appears that it will do so under an entirely new certificate.

As of December 16, 2020, flybe. no longer had a valid Air Operator's Certificate (AOC). It is understood that Thyme Opco is also seeking its own AOC ahead of launch. The UK CAA did not respond to ch-aviation's request for confirmation.

Meanwhile, Shannon-based MRO specialist Atlantic Aviation Group has acquired Flybe Aviation Services' former maintenance station at Brize Norton airport. While the wholly-owned flybe. subsidiary had its main facility at
Exeter airport, serving commercial aircraft for the airline and third-parties, its Brize Norton base was exclusively dedicated to the maintenance of A400Ms for the Royal Air Force Brize Norton). Following the acquisition, the unit was renamed AAG Defence Services.

Just a bit of history for those interested. I understand that lots of people blame JF for starting the rot and certainly his salary compared to WW's at the time was ridiculous. However, I first knew him way back in 1988 at Air UK when he was a terrific boss (he was sales and marketing director), he knew how to form a loyal and motivated team around him. Even then though, there were strange signs - one of my responsibilities was producing a paper timetable (no internet!), and one day he called me into his office. We then sat there for the afternoon with him fiddling around with the fleet using a piece of paper, a pencil and an eraser! Even then I knew that this was not the right way to set up your route network.

Eventually the dreaded company politics intervened and he got shafted. A few months later he popped up at JEA as sales and marketing director. Having been shafted myself some years later, I ended up at JEA too with a number of Air UK refugees. But the atmosphere had changed - his word was law, no real discussion, and all the key decisions were made by him alone. The thread has mentioned LCY ops - well I was called to a meeting to discuss starting up there. I was there because I had had direct experience of marketing LCY routes at Air UK some years earlier. He asked my opinion and I gave what I thought was a well-reasoned talk on why it very definitely was not a good idea to start LCY ops.

A few days later it was announced that we were going to LCY! I was amazed, wondering why I had been invited to the meeting in the first place. Shortly before I left (got pushed out really) we were faffing around for a new name, which was urgently required. After discussions with BA we became British European Airways. For my sins I wangled the code BEE out of ? IATA (can't remember). After that it evolved into the absolutely awful Flybe. I had left by that time. After some manoeuvrings JF became MD, then CEO, etc. The reason for the airline starting to go down the chute was just hubris - the usual emotion that hits people when they get into an undisputed leader position.

Looking from a distance (I'm now retired) it's all very sad. Just one bonkers decision after another, with no pushback from anybody. The board were toothless as well, consisting mainly of Walker accountants and beancounters with not a clue how to run an airline. And of course, as usual, it's the hardworking and loyal staff who are the losers while the top dogs walk away with a bunch of money...

Ah, the Walker Accountants.....happy memories (not). All those shell companies leasing aircraft back to Flybe to squeeze as much money out as possible before any tax was paid. Any time they were still likely to make a profit they loaned it out to the directors instead. Worked ok until the kids wanted to sell the airline...

Flybe Mk2 first aircraft arrived at Exeter last night from Zagreb DH8D G-CLXC a former Austrian airways aircraft formerly OE-LGA a 21 year old veteran.

What is it doing at Exeter?

I have not followed the developments, but was under the impression that all of Flybe Mk. I infrastructure at Exeter has changed hands and is no longer available for a resurrected Flybe. Is it mainly the availability of personnel that has not moved on to go for Exeter again (instead of, say, Birmingham)?

Maybe it is at Exeter for maintenance by Exeter Aerospace?
They have their Dash 8 approvals now - and a large pool of experienced engineers.

You do have to wonder about the timing of all of this. Press report here doesn't exactly make for encouraging reading.

There does seem to be what you might call a `Bigger Picture` going on here..We`ll find out in time.

Wouldn't a re-launch that offers additional connectivity in a post Brexit environment, just as the country/world begins to unlock and rebound from the pandemic be the perfect time for a new carrier to emerge?

Whilst I agree that the pandemic has very likely changed markets forever, businesses are used to constantly adjusting and adapting to the market. Loganair, Eastern, Blue Islands & Stobart all took the opportunity to adjust their networks following the failure of Flybe in March '20.

Of course there will always be the argument of what is/isn't 'fair' and I get this. Existing carriers have been battered by the pandemic and no sooner does the chance to recover emerge they have the prospect of a new opponent to contend with, but surely it should be every businesses goal to take advantage of an opportunity and I guess Thyme OpCo are seeking to do just that. I'm not surprised by the remarks of the Loganair CEO, after all he's just trying to protect a business that is likely the most exposed to any new entrant into the domestic UK market.

I suppose if it did offer additional connectivity, you could understand it rather better. But where the airlines above plus easyJet, Aurigny, KLM, BA CityFlyer and even Jet2 have filled the gaps left after Flybe, I can't really see that the "additional connectivity" argument holds water. Additional capacity - yes absolutely. Additional connectivity though? There's not a lot left uncovered now.

Birmingham to Brussels?

I'm wondering if Flybe v2 with a few Dash 8 aircraft would have potentially lower CASM than (for example) Eastern or Loganair and thus be able to reclaim some of their former trunk routes. As an example, if Flybe reappear with a Dash 8 on SOU-EDI or SOU-GLA, up against a Loganair E145, who would win ?

There are many destinations from Birmingham not currently operated by anyone since Flybe stopped
such as ...Milan Stuttgart Hamburg Hannover BerlinToulouse Nantes & lots of regional France plus Newquay Knock Dundee & more

Most of which are long shots and probably valid reason noone going near them

While many could be said to be long shots, some in @simoncorbett posting are clearly far less marginal, among them Stuttgart, Milan, Hamburg, Hanover, Berlin, from a business perspective and perhaps a couple of the "ex-pat / holiday home" French destinations on a seasonal basis. I'm sure the same applies equally from MAN and SOU.

Then on the domestic front, EasyJet offering 2 x daily service from EDI / GLA is hardly business friendly, and there must be an opportunity for multi-daily frequencies on these routes. BHD is a route that has already gone to EIR.

I don't doubt there is room for a very much slimmed down, more cautious "FlyBe2", but almost certainly branded completely differently. Prudence will be the key word if they are to succeed.

Any so called ‘business routes’ I’m sure are currently being treated with caution for obvious reasons!

For sure, business travel is probably not going to get back to pre-pandemic levels any time soon, as businesses have found more cost effective ways of holding meetings than taking day trips by air, road or rail, but there will be a market - perhaps BHX / GLA might require a 4/5 daily service, rather than up to 10 which really probably was overkill even pre-covid.

It will be interesting to see what the Union Connectivity Review says about domestic. Will they see a broader role for PSO or will they see the arguments very much as before? What about domestic APD? Is there a case for putting anything into the likes of BHX-GLA or is it up to the business community to sort themselves out if such routes will not work on a pure commercial basis? Sorry, this is a broader issue than one airline, more about the market environment for all of them.

Not a chance, PSOs are probably going to become as rare as hens teeth where there are land based alternatives such as rail. It looks as though environmental considerations may become more the fore post pandemic.

The trouble with the concept of letting EZY operate the morning and evening flights on, for example, BHX to EDI/GLA is that the early morning and evening flights on such a route are the big money flights and the off peak flights much less so. And you’ll struggle to attract a leisure market to the mid day flights when EZY are also on the route. Operating different gauge by time of day only works when one carrier has overall commercial responsibility.

ATNotts

When was BHX-GLA ever commercially sustainable at 10 x daily? Even BA were 4-5 max at the peak of the Eurohub feed.

A former Flybe Dash-8 took off from Maastricht this morning, destination unknown but appears to be either the UK or Ireland. There are lots of former Flybe - inter alia - aircraft parked at the airport but most haven't moved in quite a while. The registration is G-KKEV. Any idea whether it's off to become baked beans tins or found a new buyer?