And then you have to start wondering who can and can't ride it out.

On paper, you'd have to worry for Alitalia considering the geographic concentration of Coronavirus and their precarious pre-existing financial condition, but I've given up predicting that they will go out of business.

Todays Ryanair flight Kaunas-Milan Malpensa had only about 30 pax, others did not show up:
https://www.delfi.lt/news/daily/lith....d?id=83629045
(image in the linked article shows everything)

On paper, you'd have to worry for Alitalia considering the geographic concentration of Coronavirus and their precarious pre-existing financial condition, but I've given up predicting that they will go out of business.[/QUOTE]
2009/10 all over again but worse.

If the hysterical scenarios that have been reported in the press and media come anywhere near to fruition I would have thought that the leisure airline industry could be in severe difficulties, especially those companies who's business is vertically integrated operating hotels and airlines. If, heaven forbid, the virus developed during the summer months and stopped travel between countries such as Spain and Turkey and the rest of Europe it could be very serious financially.

Hopefully the media and WHO are over egging the pudding, which I think to be honest is a more likely scenario, and in 12 months time we'll be wondering what the fuss was about, as we did, essentially over the swine flu nonsense of about 10 years ago.

Swine flu, bird flu, SARS, MERS, Ebola* ... have I forgotten any?

Racedo, you seem like the kind of person that would wear his bicycle helmet when walking out the front door, in case a tile will fall and hit you on the head.

Not complaining though. Whilst you and the rest of the over-dramatic people of this world take shelter in your COVID bunkers, the rest of us can enjoy the world at a more sensible population level**, safe in the knowledge that those brave folk who have ventured out into the gauntlet of this apocalyptic disease have probably learnt how to wash their hands and improve their basic personal hygiene.


*unlike the rest, and Coronavirus, this one actually was a deadly disease. However the mass panic of Ebola spreading to all corners of the world never materialised

**before anyone gets their knickers in a twist, that’s in reference to people staying out of public places, not advocating that a disease killing lots of people is a positive

There's quite a difference between this and the viruses you list there.

This one spreads moderately easily, but doesn't have a massively high mortality rate.

Those ones all had very high mortality, but didn't spread very easily at all.

Governments have to decide if these risks are equivalent.

Employers will also keep an eye on whether employees may be out for one month plus.

All I see is a virus that is now spreading abound the world at an alarming rate. Can't remember what channel I was watching but in their example an infected person sits on a park bench, coughs into his hand and then puts his hand on the park bench arm and then walks off. A few minutes later another person comes along, sits down and puts her hand on the arm of the same bench. A few minutes later she rubs her eyes. She has now become infected despite sitting on her own and is incubating the virus.

If doctors can get it where hygiene is ingrained into them then no one is safe.

As the days go on air travel is going to be less palatable in many areas of the world including Europe. Yes people might over react but the fear of dying is a powerful force.

No need for personal digs.............. this is not JB.

Topic is impact on Air Travel. Since starting the thread it is already evident it is having an effect, Internal Chinese air travel has collapsed, air travel to neighbouring countrys has massively declined and even now it has started at a small scale to affect Intra European travel with more to come.

Impact will be very quickly felt on people's jobs as easy to park aircraft and renegotiate with Lessors to pay when normality comes back at penalty, however many people will get laid off as employers will not pay when no one travelling.

Everything is related because logistics has an issue on Chinese sourcing either by air or seas, this impacts jobs in wider economy and business can't sell / assemble, can't pay wages so how do you pay rent / mortgage / food bill.

In an interconnected world everybody will suffer. It may be that it is not as bad as suggested, yippee but highlighting potential impact is just doing that, putting head in sand claiming X disease never happened is great. In 1918 Flu was not expected to be worse that other years, between 1918-20 100 million people died of Spanish flu, 1 was my GG Father.

Panic or not, the airlines face a question of profitability. Having just 30 pax on board Ryanair might still be able to make ends meet, almost all tickets were sold as non-returnable. It's for now, but in a week or two the situation will change, there will be much less current revenue and empty seats will mean losses. Knowing Ryanair, I'd expect some fast moves to limit them.

Correct and 2020 could be a year where travel is less than 10 years ago.

6 Nations games already off, potentially Cheltenham, Seria A games, Euro2020, Olympics and many more. Jobs in Aviation will disappear plus in destination tourism.

I would agree as they will park up aircraft, lay off people and sit it out. 737Max less aircraft helps them because the compensation will be worked out when aircraft is available so that is a minimum 18 month penalty. Only fly in the ointment is will people want to travel but 1p /1c fares will change that.

Fraport's message published today:

Who in their right mind is going to book a holiday to Northern Italy? Tourist attractions closed and also risk getting infected or being locked in a hotel room for 2 weeks. It's like a big game of chance. No thanks

Me....!

The Wizzair website seems to show that frequencies have been reduced in March, but I'm not sure it's correct to say all flights are suspended

No more of a big chance than flying, if your number is up, it is up. Course bit of a bitch if your number is not up but the Pilots is................ thems the odds.

At least if you go there will be no queing.

Danger here is news media report it as such and everybody reacts to it.

Me. Swiped some Ryanair flights to Milan for a fiver next weekend. Will be happy to make the most of having the city to ourselves, no queues at the bar, every cloud and all that.

Thailand's Health Minister recommended that no one travel.
Tourism is about 20% of Thailand's GDP.

No queues because nothing will be open.

https://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/El...-impact-619080

EL AL cancels flights to Italy and Thailand.

bit of coronavirus a few miles away and Milan becomes the new Chernobyl

He’s telling his own citizens not to travel abroad, he’s not saying “don’t come to Thailand”. One of the latest cases there is of a Thai citizen that traveled to Japan.

The world has officially gone nuts!

From the BBC

If it gets into the U.K. as reported above airports will be closed down.

Let us suppose, just hypothetically, that Covid-19 really is as bad as professors of medicine are saying. 60% of population in a high income country is infected and 1% die - figures I've seen from a well respected figure. Of course you may have a different opinion on what numbers should look like, but this puts us into 1918 Spanish flu comparable territory

Under such a scenario while large numbers of people are sick, would society want a complete shutdown of commercial aviation ? Wuhan airport closed, but Shanghai-Pudong remains open albeit running at about 20% of normal traffic levels

"mass death preparedness"

Have there been any mass deaths anywhere so far? The worst affected to date is China. As I write this the count (of deaths) is 2747. What is the population of China?!

Where did you read that?

That is up to 500,000 dead..................... or more than total WW2 casualties.

Point will be trhat it would not be even spread around country, some towns could lose 40% of population where some lose a handful. Then there is the recovery of those infected, don't over rule survivors guilt that will be in the mine.

If closed down you may reduce population loss from 500,000 to 100,000, infection rate from 60% to 20%. Would you suggest not doing it ?
Of course some states may get a hold of it and release it in a city of their enemies to destroy.

Potentially death rate could be very high as who would make and distributes food ? Also likely martial law in UK would need to be declared. Hey I point worst case scenario but imagine you have food stocked up, neighbours don't and are hungry.

https://www.wttc.org/about/media-cen...wttc-research/

This gives the figure and it supports 6 million jobs.

Sorry. To be clear, that I understood. It was the don't travel to Thailand fake news element I was querying

Thanks

Ah ok...................... didn't look for that but as 27% of tourism industry is from China then could understand it

No argument with that. Tourism is dead here at present

Don’t forget that the vast majority of those that will die will be the old and those in ill health already. The vast majority of “economically active” people will have very mild symptoms, more akin to a mild cold. Most wouldn’t even know they had it, and would go about their daily business like they do now.
So I don't see your “worst case scenario” as any sort of reality.

Jonty
Racedo lives in "Darkest Surrey", and judging by the tone of his posts on quite a few subjects, he also personally seems to inhabit quite a dark space ! Keep calm and carry on as you say, and remember nobody lives for ever. I wonder what the figure is World Wide for road deaths over the last 2 months to put some context to things in comparison with this virus which seems to be shall we say tolerated to a degree. As for tourism I have not noticed much in the way of sales yet for quick breaks to the likes of Seychelles, Maldives, Mauritius to name 3 places I have recently looked for deals on.

Great if we knew that as no one would have to worry but there is nothing to back that up. Spanish Flu killed 100 million, 3-5% of the World's population, equally likely to kill young as the old. It will destroy the industry this board is about.

An Albanian friend (late 50's) talking recently of growing up there and said her Grandmother remembered way back to that time, passing on oral history, rural area but able to have said about this family of 13, 3 left after a great sickness that affected everybody, they farming and had decent amount of food available so were not malnourished.

We live in a different time but on 2 cases already we know that 1 lady after taking a Ryanair flight from Italy to Greece is now infected, second person in Belfast took a Ryanair flight from Italy to Dublin. 100 years ago their trip was 2-3 weeks, now its 2-3 hours.

One of the unusual features of this virus is that the older you are, the more likely that you will get seriously ill or die. Most of these diseases also attack the very young, but there have been no fatalities at all among children.

racedo
This does not appear to be Spanish Influenza like, and generally people are healthier than in 1918. It may become a big issue when it gets into 3rd World countries where the population is not always so healthy, and indeed where health care can be more problematic but it was ever thus. The idea of just pulling up the draw bridge no longer works, and indeed it is doubtful that it ever did when you look at the various other issues we have had like Plague. You just carry on and look after yourself as well as possible.

Seems somewhat irresponsible that you purposely book a cheap flight close to a virus hot spot just to get a bargain without any thought about family and friends. Actually I find it quite shocking.