Wonderful positive spirit there. Let's tear up the Runways and return to sail boats.

When quoting statics of deaths in the UK in 2020. Please be sure that you note:

1) Those stats that list Covid 19 on the death certificate.
2) Total excess deaths in the UK, from all causes, over those expected based on the average of the same period of the preceeding five years.

I saw some statistics a few days ago (can’t find the article now, I think it was the FT) saying that less than 1 in 5 are actually genuinely complying with self isolation requirements...

False positives?
 

Interesting article on accuracy of testing. Might account for some of the rise in cases.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...lse-positives-

Stats just seen on Sky suggest two things. One: The first wave of the virus disproportionately affected the least affluent in society. The second wave has homed in on those at the opposite end - those who lead comfortable lives by any standard.

Two: Those who have travelled abroad in recent weeks are developing Covid19 at a rate way way higher than those who have remained in the UK.

Points one and two may not be unrelated.

So I ask. Is it time to shut down all but essential international travel?

Shouldn’t we take advantage of our island status and close all points of entry?

I don’t have an answer. Some of you must have a considered opinion.

Know a number of people who died from Covid plus others infected, they were not the "least affluent in society" by any measure. Firstwave have hit many people who had underlying medical conditions, secondary was health service personnel who had inadequate protection.

Issue was made out as a BAME disease because people were disproportionately impacted by Covid and it was being portrayed as a "race" issue because less white people dying. However NHS stats over decades have shown that 1st Generarion immigrants are mnore likely to have higher incidence of diabetes / obesity etc than native population. In some Asian communities the diabetes issue shows a 4-6 times more prevalent than similar Uk born population.

This seen through change in diet and an inability of body to copy with more sugars / fats / dairy that more prevalent in UK diet. 2nd and 3rd generations it seems to be less of a problem as body used to the diet. The health service not unsurprisingly impacted massively where there is a higher proportion of 1st generation immigrants than % of population as a whole.

If it was a "race" issue as people have made out then it would have decimated populations of same race in their home countries. It didn't so makes it more of a Uk centric issue than anything else.

Well travelled abroad in August and have been Covid tested twice since, as late as last Friday and thankfully negative both time. I didn't spend time in pubs etc since but didn't do it before Covid.

There are 2 work colleagues who stayed in UK for holidays, both caught Covid, one holidayed in Cornwall and one in Lake district. They don't work in same office and both tested when returned from hols because place in was way too crowded.

Therefore no guarantee International travel is cause of outbreak because equally the Govt scheme in August, schools returning is as much to blame.

I travelled abroad in August because I need to get away after working solidly for 6 months, going to crowded areas in Uk I saw as way more risky. Not sure what is correct answer but was happy to have got out of Uk in August.

I do find all this talk of banning travel and lockdowns very interesting. Excepts no one seems to ask what the end goal is. As far as I can see there are only 2 ways out of this. A vaccine or treatment being one, the second is to just let it rip through society. Anything else is just delaying the inevitable.

I for one am asking it... every day! And I presume every travel company is asking too! Asia have the closed sign up - until when, exactly?

And potentially so many deaths that the services won't be able to keep pace. Millions will die in pain at home or even in the streets (homeless) as there will be no other place and no medical staff available for them. Great plan Jonty. The only option right now is to impose restrictions, keep the numbers down and wait patiently for a vaccine or better ways to treat the people with the virus. But then again, you will still need ample resources to do that.

It looks like I might have been over-optimistic over how long the UK would keep Sweden on the 'ok to visit' list
In the 7 days up to 21-Sep, they had 21 cases per 100,000 people, while in the 7 days up to 28-Sep they had 29 cases per 100,000 people. Ever since 02-Sep, the 7-day rolling average has had a steady upward trend
There are of course a couple more days of data to be collected before a decision is made, but it's not looking great

The data is not yet on the ECDC website but is now available at https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/

That would be a perfect plan if we had a confirmed availability date of a suitable vaccine.

1. We don't know how long before a vaccine will be available.

​​​​​​2. We don't know for definite there will ever even be one.

So we could hunker down, close everything whilst the economy crumbles around us, hundreds of thousands of other deaths from other diseases that can't get treatment. The government ends up potless, millions of unemployed etc etc only to emerge on the other side with no vaccine and the start of wave number 4 or 5 or 6.....

People need to start accepting the plain and simple fact we may have to learn to live alongside this virus for many many years to come.

The way things are going with this government's beyond incompetent handling of this whole fiasco, there isn't going to be any tax revenue to pay for people to be treated anyway because nobody is going to be employed.

A vaccine has been a "moonshot" if you like from the beginning. Even if (and it's still a big if) a safe vaccine is developed, it is unlikely to be particularly effective or provide long lasting immunity. It is time for everyone to grow up and accept that death is inevitable and that sometimes despite the best efforts of medical science there's nothing that can be done to save some people. Destroying the world's economy, causing untold misery for millions (UNICEF reporting that an additional 150 million children will be plunged into poverty as a direct result of the Covid panic, for example) is the most incredible act of self harm witnessed in human history.

There isn't an end goal, just hope that someone else makes a bigger screwup and your re not left holding the can.

Mmmm........

Its killing less than 1% of those infected with it. The median age for those affected is 85, and the percentage of people who have died who have no know co-morbidity is 4%.

I don't think “millions” is probably the right word. Maybe world wide.

To you my questions are: what happens if we don't get a vaccine or treatment? Are you prepared to lockdown forever? To me life is for living.

We are already seeing the deaths of people who have not been infected with Covid. An additional 30000 cancer deaths are predicted in the UK alone. Never mind the figures for heart disease, suicide, and other issues that aren’t being treated because of the government response to Covid.

How many people have to die “in pain at home” yet having been completely untouched by this virus before we start to think that maybe we got this wrong? How many of our children do we have to bury from the mental health issues that this action will most certainly cause? And that’s without looking at the social issues, the redundancies, the families ripped apart, the livelihoods destroyed, and the permanent economic scarring of an entire nation. And for what? To keep a load of Octogenarians alive for another few months?

Lock-downs give us some more time to get vaccine ready and save some lives thereafter. If the vaccine development isn't successful within a reasonable time, the lock-downs will certainly end, but the travel industry misfortune could take longer to resolve (until the majority of population becomes immune in a natural way).

The average years of life lost of people dying in the UK within 28 days of a positive covid test is ten years for men and thirteen for women.

Would that be another computer model? I wonder if it was produced by the same people who predicted 80,000 deaths in Sweden by now

I get that, but what’s a “reasonable” time frame?

Same kind of actuarial model used by the insurance industry worldwide. It's not exactly rocket science. Please accept the average is not a few months.

That may or may not be true. As yet there is no conclusive evidence either way. Please don't confuse opinion with fact.