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-   -   Loganair-2 (https://www.pprune.org/airlines-airports-routes/600131-loganair-2-a.html)

SealinkBF 1st Mar 2019 14:01


Originally Posted by BAladdy (Post 10403120)

Hopefully LM will be much more successful operating the SEN-GLA route than Stobart/Flybe were.

I wonder just how long the current BE/T3 ABZ-LCY service will continue once Loganair launch SEN?. Especially since Loganair’s SEN Service will operate direct, at a higher frequency with flights times about 1 hr shorter than BE’s LCY flights. Also LMs lowest fare will be about half the price of BE’s lowest fare on the LCY.

It is interesting that EDI is on the card for around October. EDI-LON is a extremely competitive market with over 300 flights a week, that’s over 200 more than ABZ and over a 100 more than currently from GLA. I can’t help but think that they might struggle to compete profitably.


Not so sure. There's money in Edinburgh! When BMI were struggling it was the GLA route they axed not EDI. I think it's one of those markets that expands with capacity.

DC3 Dave 1st Mar 2019 15:09


Originally Posted by BAladdy (Post 10403120)

Hopefully LM will be much more successful operating the SEN-GLA route than Stobart/Flybe were.




In the last three months of operation the route averaged around 5,500 pax. The best month on the route achieved 6,873 pax, which is not that far from Loganair filling each and every aircraft for a month. And then add on those traveling to and from Stornoway.

Of course, there are no guarantees, and it may take a little time, but if they get the pricing right, Loganair could have a real winner on their hands.

inOban 1st Mar 2019 15:27

Remember that a through ticket from London to Shetland currently costs about £300-, unless you have an overnight break in EDI or abz

Cyrano 1st Mar 2019 15:54


Originally Posted by DC3 Dave (Post 10403947)
In the last three months of operation the route averaged around 5,500 pax. The best month on the route achieved 6,873 pax, which is not that far from Loganair filling each and every aircraft for a month. And then add on those traveling to and from Stornoway.

There are a couple of subscription-based online tools out there, aimed at airports, airlines and industry analysts, which estimate route yields based on sampling available fares over a period of time and making assumptions about the booking profiles. Their results are by no means 100% accurate but the fact that a good number of subscribers continue to pay their not insubstantial fees suggests that they are not entirely useless either.

One of the well-established such tools estimates that during 2018 the average one-way yield between GLA and SEN was a bit shy of £30. (This isn't precise - maybe in reality it was £25, maybe it was £35, though only Stobart/flybe knows, but based on that imprecise data I'd bet that it wasn't £50!). Unfortunately even if Loganair fills every seat on every flight at that price, they won't come close to making money. Fuel alone for the sector is likely to be over £1000 (or £20/seat) and nav charges will be over £600 (£12/seat). So they will need to achieve far better yields, and the jet product will certainly help those yields, but I don't know if it'll be enough. I wish them well, I really do (especially for the Stornoway-London link, which as 01475 says would be transformative for the local economy), but I wouldn't be betting on the profitability of these routes. If in a year's time I am proven wrong, I'll be happy to eat humble pie.

AirportPlanner1 1st Mar 2019 17:06

A couple of clarifications in the case for and against GLA-SEN.

Having flown on the BE/STK service 2.5 returns including at short notice, I can confirm fares were far from high and loads on all five flights were quite low. I concur that getting 40 people on an E195 doesn’t mean you’ll get 40 on a E145.

Re post 370, Essex is many things but it’s not a poor catchment. Quite the opposite. There will certainly be some takers for a reliable, frequent higher end service and the same will apply for the ABZ route.

inOban 1st Mar 2019 17:06

If it was only £30 then that explains why the route was pulled. Even Ryanair's costs are around £50 per pax.

AirportPlanner1 1st Mar 2019 17:26

I should also point out that Stobart was a jet service. It was scheduled on the E195 but with their reliability troubles the route was often subbed to an ATR. That should in itself say something about loads.

Skipness One Foxtrot 1st Mar 2019 17:32


Originally Posted by AirportPlanner1 (Post 10404063)
A couple of clarifications in the case for and against GLA-SEN.

Having flown on the BE/STK service 2.5 returns including at short notice, I can confirm fares were far from high and loads on all five flights were quite low. I concur that getting 40 people on an E195 doesn’t mean you’ll get 40 on a E145.

Re post 370, Essex is many things but it’s not a poor catchment. Quite the opposite. There will certainly be some takers for a reliable, frequent higher end service and the same will apply for the ABZ route.

There almost no “high end” routes in UK domestic. Going to Southend from Scotland, fly easyJet to Stansted at a fraction of “high end” and get the bus from there.

Expressflight 1st Mar 2019 17:53

The Loganair GLA-SEN-GLA service will not be a like-for-like replacement for the Stobart/Flybe service. Low frequency always prevented the Stobart service from being very useful for business travellers in either direction whereas 3 x daily on Loganair ticks that box and should result in a higher yield.

4567 1st Mar 2019 17:55

I personally think that £39.99 with a case, pick ur seat at check in and onboard snack is pretty decent and with only 50 seater s you’re off the plane in no time. They have a good product we will just need to see if it pays off.

AirportPlanner1 1st Mar 2019 20:05


Originally Posted by Skipness One Foxtrot (Post 10404088)

There almost no “high end” routes in UK domestic. Going to Southend from Scotland, fly easyJet to Stansted at a fraction of “high end” and get the bus from there.

Its not really true to say high end domestic doesn’t exist, there’s certainly a market or BA wouldn’t offer Club or charge a fortune on certain flights. There’s also plenty of “premium” routes, pretty much anything involving Eastern fits into that bracket .

Also its all well and good telling people to go to Stansted, but at a bare minimum EZY will want about £45 return but normally it’s going to be more like £50-55 if you book at least a couple of weeks ahead, risk having your handluggage taken off you and sit where they put you. Add on your £30 bus and Logan with luggage, a drink and a tea cake thrown in looks pretty damn good.

Also on some days the EZY schedule from STN isn’t that useful, trust me I used it twice in February.

Skipness One Foxtrot 1st Mar 2019 20:51


Originally Posted by AirportPlanner1 (Post 10404208)
Its not really true to say high end domestic doesn’t exist, there’s certainly a market or BA wouldn’t offer Club or charge a fortune on certain flights. There’s also plenty of “premium” routes, pretty much anything involving Eastern fits into that bracket .
Also its all well and good telling people to go to Stansted, but at a bare minimum EZY will want about £45 return but normally it’s going to be more like £50-55 if you book at least a couple of weeks ahead, risk having your handluggage taken off you and sit where they put you. Add on your £30 bus and Logan with luggage, a drink and a tea cake thrown in looks pretty damn good.
Also on some days the EZY schedule from STN isn’t that useful, trust me I used it twice in February.

BA *just about* make high end domestic work on EDI-LON but not even sure if I would argue the Glasgow Shuttle fits that bill nowadays. There are not plenty of premium routes, go count the ones you'd call money makers, you know, at flybe :(
Flybe are on their knees partly due to the weakness of UK domestic aviation, Eastern continue to contract. The only real money makers are high volume routes, low volume high value is barely seen outside of er....Loganair! You can't seriously point at the loss making car crash that is the flybe / Eastern business model and say that's the way to go. Added to the fact that the company flying the very same aircraft last week just went bust because low volume regional flying is a bottomless pit of losses for most operators.

My actual concern here is I remember what happened last time Loganair did this and it didn't end well.


EGPO 2nd Mar 2019 00:30

flight times and a question
 
I was wondering if someone would please answer a couple of questions for me, having read various posts , following the new 'Stornoway- Sen ' route, and that perhaps, Sumburgh or even Kirkwall as I saw was suggested on either this or another forum .

Anyway ref Stornoway, what are the flight times likely to be , it must be easily over an hour .

And can Sumburgh , which would be the next ' logical route ' , especially with all that Oil business , plus the positive effects of inbound tourism. could the Runway at Sumburgh support an ERJ45 ?

. Stornoway is clearly long enough , as Ryanair if anyone recalls tried to get a base there .I read that it was stopped by the Airport?.

Anyway I ask about Sumburgh as obviously it could handle an Embraer 170 ( could it handle a 175 ( I thought Stobart have them ).
Just I was always under the impression the E13/45 was not as runway effecient as the new ' E Jets '.
Also is the direct link from Manchester to Stornoway still running .

It would be a real boost to the local economy if it was .
I'm surprised they don't get more ' inbound flights , ( tourist flights - that offer tickets to locals).
I believe this is common in Eire and NQY And Exeter ?.

Sorry for the different questions but not being in the know about the subject, but having spent a lot of time on Lewis , this could be the start of more to come .
As not everyone relishes spending an age driving to ullapool and suffering the crossing of the Minch , no matter how good the new Calmac vessel is !.


Fly757X 2nd Mar 2019 00:44


Originally Posted by EGPO (Post 10404383)
I was wondering if someone would please answer a couple of questions for me, having read various posts , following the new 'Stornoway- Sen ' route, and that perhaps, Sumburgh or even Kirkwall as I saw was suggested on either this or another forum .

Anyway ref Stornoway, what are the flight times likely to be , it must be easily over an hour .

And can Sumburgh , which would be the next ' logical route ' , especially with all that Oil business , plus the positive effects of inbound tourism. could the Runway at Sumburgh support an ERJ45 ?

. Stornoway is clearly long enough , as Ryanair if anyone recalls tried to get a base there .I read that it was stopped by the Airport?.

Anyway I ask about Sumburgh as obviously it could handle an Embraer 170 ( could it handle a 175 ( I thought Stobart have them ).
Just I was always under the impression the E13/45 was not as runway effecient as the new ' E Jets '.
Also is the direct link from Manchester to Stornoway still running .

It would be a real boost to the local economy if it was .
I'm surprised they don't get more ' inbound flights , ( tourist flights - that offer tickets to locals).
I believe this is common in Eire and NQY And Exeter ?.

Sorry for the different questions but not being in the know about the subject, but having spent a lot of time on Lewis , this could be the start of more to come .
As not everyone relishes spending an age driving to ullapool and suffering the crossing of the Minch , no matter how good the new Calmac vessel is !.

A few things on that... Stobart got 3 E195s from Flybe, not 175s.

The ER3/4s that Loganair have, have had their reverses deactivated from what I’ve heard due to the crews not being trained in them because of the low concentration of ER3/4s globally that have then anyway. Therefore I don’t believe they could operate there but I could be completely wrong there.

EGPO 2nd Mar 2019 01:54


Originally Posted by Fly757X (Post 10404390)


A few things on that... Stobart got 3 E195s from Flybe, not 175s.

The ER3/4s that Loganair have, have had their reverses deactivated from what I’ve heard due to the crews not being trained in them because of the low concentration of ER3/4s globally that have then anyway. Therefore I don’t believe they could operate there but I could be completely wrong there.

Thank you, very interesting , is that even safe to have an aircraft land minus reversers .
I'm no pilot but what of the Scenario, especially on Lewis with a wetter climate.
Plus as id said , I'm pretty sure it was mentioned about Sumburgh ( I'm assuming a 190/5 could get in there , as I was under the impression like many aircraft designs there is ac' short field package ' not to mention , Vagar was taking 737's before the extended runway. ( YouTube video for proof somewhere).

Anyway back to topic no reversers and what if the runway was soaked and high winds.
Surley just brakes alone would potentially cause a skid? Unless it's grooved and I can't see it being grooved at Stornoway as I think ( would have to check , but pretty sure it's as long if not longer than the likes of HUY, which takes 757's. Indeed years back a German 747 had to land there in an emergency .

But even so to disable a major safety system does not sound right.







willy wombat 2nd Mar 2019 09:07

It’s perfectly safe to land without thrust reversers if the runway is suitable. Some aircraft do not have them e.g. BAe 146 / RJ85/100 and they have pretty good short field performance (landing at London City even in the rain). They won’t “skid” as they have anti skid braking systems like ABS on a car.

chaps1954 2nd Mar 2019 09:29

Are you sure there was a B747 in HUY as I don`t think runway is anywhere near long enough

Rob Royston 2nd Mar 2019 10:10


Originally Posted by EGPO (Post 10404410)
Thank you, very interesting , is that even safe to have an aircraft land minus reversers .
I'm no pilot but what of the Scenario, especially on Lewis with a wetter climate.
Plus as id said , I'm pretty sure it was mentioned about Sumburgh ( I'm assuming a 190/5 could get in there , as I was under the impression like many aircraft designs there is ac' short field package ' not to mention , Vagar was taking 737's before the extended runway. ( YouTube video for proof somewhere).

Anyway back to topic no reversers and what if the runway was soaked and high winds.
Surley just brakes alone would potentially cause a skid? Unless it's grooved and I can't see it being grooved at Stornoway as I think ( would have to check , but pretty sure it's as long if not longer than the likes of HUY, which takes 757's. Indeed years back a German 747 had to land there in an emergency .

But even so to disable a major safety system does not sound right.

When the Loganair CEO visited Shetland last year he told them that the ERJ's could not operate from Sumburgh and they would be getting ATR's to replace the Saab's. It looks like the runways are too short, I think especially for take off's. There are no leading edge slats on the wings.
SYY used to be 7595ft on 18-36 but this seems to have been shortened to around 7200ft. I remember reading about the large aircraft doing the emergency landing. I don't think it was a 747 but they had to get the passengers off with the ambulift. It may have been a 767, https://www.pprune.org/archive/index.php/t-1796.html

inOban 2nd Mar 2019 10:46

And you certainly don't want to run off the end of the Sumburgh runway, as both ends were extended into the sea.

Expressflight 2nd Mar 2019 11:02


Originally Posted by EGPO (Post 10404410)
Anyway back to topic no reversers and what if the runway was soaked and high winds.
Surley just brakes alone would potentially cause a skid? Unless it's grooved and I can't see it being grooved at Stornoway

Both Stornaway and Sumburgh have grooved runways.


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