Manchester, Luton and Edinburgh...

Manchester is much bigger City than Newcastle

Luton is anoterh London airport

Edinburgh is a capital city with lots of tourist and financial traffic

NCL does very well IMHO - any other UK airport would kill for that daily flight to Dubai

Unless and until the NE becomes a lot richer you won't see many more flights

Can't see TUI doing Thailand (BKK) from NCL - Emirates fares have been around £460 - £480 via Dubai for the past year and connections are very easy also to HKT and the islands, Hua Hin etc...
I'd suggest Westbound routes which are under served for package breaks, and possibly Goa, India which we have had for a couple of seasons in the past from Caledonian.
Orlando could do with more operators for competition. We used to have at least 2 operators (Thomson and Thomas Cook forbears (Airtours) - Quite a few people I know travel via Manchester for price or packages via Virgin - Maybe Virgin could offer variety as well as competition.

I agree. I used to find it frustrating that Thomson in particular didnt even juggle the schedule a little bit each year. (Pre kids) when looking for a winter break to the canaries at least 6 days offfwork was required because none of the flights were at weekends - even the Sunday TFS arrived back early Monday morning. Historically the older generation going to Benidorm for the winter wouldn’t have cared which day they flew on but there is a big group of workers who want a short winter break but to save as many days holiday for other times of the year.

I also agree that surely there are enough adventurous Geordies who would love to try somewher new such as Cape Verde in the winter. While I duck for cover as the inevitable “economics” are pointed out I do also wonder how much newcastle suffers from “regional prejudice” ie southern based planners thinking we’re just 30 mins from BHX so what does it matter (just like the dualling if the A1 - crying out to be done but not important enough for the people controlling the spending in London!!

Could do with the A319 to A320.upgrade on EZY before a 4th aircraft IMO.

Thomas Cook i think apart from LGW and MAN we get basically the same routes as every other winter base its TUI im most dissapointed in i would of loved to see them do Winter KEF from Newcastle.

In defence of EK77 I would say that Thailand is a place that is very popular with Scandinavians, but for some reason hasn't taken off as a 'mainstream' - if high-end - tourism destination from the UK. Tourist destinations come and go. I am old enough to remember when Rimini used to be popular from NCL, and only the truly adventurous went to Turkey. It won't happen next year but never say never.

Airport have Las Vegas on the map but I'm guessing that would be summer only with TUI

TCX are planning a 2019 summer 1x weekly route to LAS however the flight would need to go via MAN for fuel.

With the Aer Lingus frequency dropping too, there could be a real market for a twice weekly US flight now but that ship has sailed, having seen the figures I'd say at least 75% of all Dublin pax are connecting to the US.

Just out of interest BKK is the highest unserved route from MAN so the pax are there

TUI don't fly to Vegas... It would be, at most, 2/3 charter flights with Thomas Cook or Virgin. Same as Jet2's New York flights

Thailand is becoming more and more popular, and I think people are starting to realise that it is more affordable than they expected. At most, we would be talking a fortnightly flight, say June-September (could work better as a winter seasonal flight though). That's 8-10 flights, 2400-3000 people. Probably about the same as Emirates alone carry from Newcastle - Thailand every month, never mind KLM, Air France and British airways. Not to mention the thousands per month that "leak" to Edinburgh, Manchester and Birmingham. So yes, Callum Paterson... I do think that Thailand is a realistic option in the coming years from Newcastle. VentureGo, TUI don't fly to Bangkok, so it would be NCL-HKT. Goa is a nice thought, but it was operated in the past on an A320, I don't think it would sustain a 787, even fortnightly. People are still quite reluctant to be as adventurous as India. It's difficult to convince a Geordie to go to Almeria instead of Benidorm!!!

DanAir89, I think you hit the nail on the head. I think some would certainly consider Cape Verde, and a weekly 737 out of Newcastle shouldn't be out of the question. But it's easier and less risk just to send it to Tenerife on another rotation. There is a lot of regional bias at play.

LiamNCL, I'm really surprised KEF didn't happen this winter to be honest. I live in hope! I'd use it if they offered it.

Heathrow Harry, I apologise; Liverpool, Bristol, Leeds, Doncaster, Belfast, Glasgow and Cardiff, then? We've been significantly behind all of them in growth for a number of years - I appreciate that they might not be delivering as much profit as NCL, but there is a bit of a blip in growth in the North East.

Sorry for being optimistic but I remember the "I'll give them 6 months" comments on Emirates

When I come back from BKK I see a fair few people from the long haul on the NCL hop.

It would be great for me personally to see a weekly or even fortnightly year round flight.

Does anyone anywhere do fortnightly flights?

What is the smallest plane that could do the distance in one go?

If the US direct isnt going to happen the airport should be nagging Icelandair or WOW air. Iceland could work really well for one stop and connecting traffic.

KEF, by Icelandair, appears far more realistic an aspiration than direct services to Thailand!

It would surprise me if the airport weren't talking to them as their hub at KEF serves so many destination in North America it would be a real boon for NCL.

Is WOW not a candidate for NCL with there ever expanding US and Canadian connections in KEF ?

If I were NCL I'd be looking to Icelandair with their far more comprehensive network, and more staying power in terms of market development. Also a better known brand in North America, and most probably in UK too.

If they couldn't be brought on board then 2nd choice would be WOW.

I will depend on if Icelandair get the right type of aircraft

The Dash is too small, slow and expensive for NCL-KEF, and the 757 is simply too big.

The 737MAX... Maybe, but still on the large side. I'm sure that if Icelandair had E-jets or Cseries, Newcastle would be one of the go to destinations

Ash666, our only option for a direct Thailand service is TUI on a 787. The 787 is the only one that can do 11 hours non-stop out of Newcastle

TUI do fortnightly flights to Orlando and Cancun from Newcastle, which I hope will increase to 2 weekly if growth continues. They all go out full as it is, and the ability of offering 10/11 night holidays alongside the current 7/14, could only be a good thing

I doubt I would trust WOW to stick out a full season, never mind year round

Thanks EK77.

I'm sure NCL could send 250 pax to Thailand fortnightly.

With the fares available and daily choice to Thailand via DXB with EK why would you want a charter flight!! Plus would damage EK loads!
If you look at the struggle NCL has had to keep other long haul charters I really cannot see it happening!!

Aren't Cancun and Orlando weekly with TUI? I agree TUI is our best bet for any leisure long-haul, does anybody know whether TUI operate Thailand from any regional airports or is it just LGW and MAN? Also not convinced that a 787 could do 11 hours out of NCL.

I think that NCL is too far for the Icelandair dash 8's - ABZ and BHD are a stretch. Curious as to why TOM with the 738 and EZY 319/320's are regarded as suitable for KEF-NCL but the Icelandair MAX is too big? As WOW couldn't make BRS work, I agree that we wouldn't be on their radar.

Also once upon a time, BRS and NCL had very similar operations (though they'd kill for our legacy carriers :E) - the difference now shows clearly the impact of the size and wealth of the respective catchment areas

TUi are doing Birmingham to Phuket this winter.

For W18/19 Birmingham will see alternating Langkawi and Bangkok.

Falcon900x

TCX planning 1x weekly summer 2019 to las vagas is that from Manchester or ncl?

HH6702, TCX already have regular flights from Manchester, Stansted and Glasgow to Las Vegas

SWBKCB, Orlando and Cancun are 1.5 weekly. Alternating fortnightly flights to each alongside the existing weekly flights.

The Dash could do Newcastle, but I think if it were to happen it would be a half arsed attempt for both sides. How is 3.5 hours on a Dash 8, across the Atlantic, supposed to be remotely competitive?

Re: EZY vs TOM vs FI MAX...
- TUI would operate 2 flights a week, seasonally, mainly sold as packages at an affordable price. Aimed 100% at the UK leisure market. Well known brand, reputable, reliable
- easyJet would probably operate 2/3 flights per week, varying seasonally, at low prices. They would cater to tourists both from the UK and Iceland. They may also sell some seats for package operators and cater to whatever small business market there is. Again, very well known in the UK and if people can bag flights for 50 quid, they'll probably consider it
- Icelandair... In order to be at all competitive would require an absolute minimum of 3/4 flights a week. In the 70-100 seat segment this may be sustainable, but on 160+ seat aircraft, charging high fares, this is unlikely to be sustainable. Icelandair would seem to make the most sense because they would cater to both inbound and outbound tourism, TATL connecting traffic, stopovers, business (very limited) and they also offer packages, but you're looking at paying £250-500 per person for return flights to Reykjavik... We know from United that this kind of sh*t doesn't go down well in geordieland

I can't see a fortnightly package holiday flight making that much of a dint in Emirates' performance from Newcastle. If anything it might help create some slack, emptying seats in the peak months for more lucrative passengers to fill! Emirates loses hundreds of thousands of passengers to competitors both at NCL and nearby airports anyway

TUI 787 Dreamliner G-TUIC operating a final IBZ-NCL of the season Tonight.

New route announcements are very sparse for 2018. Is anything expected from Ryanair or EasyJet....or even the long awaited extention of the Stavanger route to Bergen?

I certainly wont be holding my breath, if I'm honest

Wouldn't be surprised if Ryanair don't add anything However I think EasyJet might announce something possibly 2 or 3 Routes to their bases in Europe (hoping for Lisbon
Milan&Venice)

Upon this very long argued vision of Thailand.

I'm from Newcastle and flew their via Dubai 3x within the last 5 years. On every one of those flights coming back, there was another person from the North East of England.

It would, however, make more sense that tour operators looked into places such as Phuket and Koh Samui.

I think Hua Hin would be viable but after Phuket and Koh Samui are set up.

Chiang Mai and Pattaya are high in tourist numbers but I don't think would be viable for tourism. Especially as Chiang Mai airport's airport is small and Pattaya isn't close to an airport itself.

DUS
 

LGW (that’s the guys that used to operate the Q400s for Air Berlin) will be operating the DUS on certain days with the dash for the next month at least.

"On every one of those flights coming back, there was another person from the North East of England. "

I think they're going to need more than 2 pax a flight to make it work........ no, but seriosuly, use of longer range small airbus and the 787/A350 for longer flights should open up a lot of city pairs not currently served - it may eventually happen

the question is how many long-haul holidays can the NE generate a year?

Probably not enough to sustain the volumes need to make routes like these work. I'd love to be proved wrong though...

Access to Koh Samui is also, I believe, very tightly controlled by Bangkok Airways. Also it's really only suitable for regional ops certainly not for long haul.

The numbers going to/via Dubai have been pretty stable for years at around 230,000 pax a year

In 2007 the airport had around 5.7 mm pax - cp 4.8 mm last year - so you could argue that there is easily another 900,000 pax out there - but a new long haul airliner would have to take over 25% of that extra demand to make it work I guess - that's a big ask

I wonder if there is a breakdown somewhere of the 5.7m pax in 2007. It will be interesting to see routes and pax numbers at that time.
I would suggest potential is much higher than another 900,000 quoted, as the region has since grown in population. We have endured a recession over recent years, which has hit growth, but it was estimated at the time of the Masterplan, the Airport would reach 8m pax by 2025.

2007 CAA stats

Airport Total pax
HEATHROW 495,366
AMSTERDAM 334,254
PALMA 298,604
STANSTED 297,882
ALICANTE 254,099
MALAGA 253,360
BRISTOL 246,808
PARIS CDG 234,370
DUBLIN 227,066
BELFAST INTER 224,565
TENERIFE 187,771
FARO 139,811
GATWICK 109,649
DALAMAN 95,255
BARCELONA 95,196
PRAGUE 90,244
MURCIA 87,623
LAS PALMAS 72,117
PAPHOS 72,058
ROME (CIAMPINO) 71,847
KRAKOW 67,316
IBIZA 66,531
ARRECIFE 61,880
CORFU 60,718
GERONA 57,800
EXETER 56,150
SHARM EL SHEIKH 54,900
BODRUM (MILAS) 50,632
NICE 49,867
FUERTEVENTURA 48,531
MAHON 47,575
LARNACA 44,246
DUBAI 44,139
HERAKLION 42,649
GENEVA 41,743
RHODES 40,404
CORK 38,968
BRUSSELS 38,958
BERGAMO 38,580
ZAKINTHOS 38,064
BELFAST CITY 37,208
HANOVER 32,470
REUS 31,494
MONASTIR 30,995
MALTA 26,039
BURGAS 25,437
ANTALYA 24,834
BIRMINGHAM 24,169
ABERDEEN 21,826
DUSSELDORF 20,760
BERGEN 20,486
KOS 19,293
COPENHAGEN 18,891
SANFORD 18,621
PISA 18,308
PUERTO PLATA 16,704
CARDIFF WALES 16,110
SALZBURG 14,123
FUNCHAL 14,105
VERONA 13,244
STAVANGER 13,086
VALENCIA 12,089
NAPLES 11,525
SANDEFJORD(TORP) 10,311
SALONIKA 9,982
ALMERIA 9,529
THIRA (SANTORINI) 7,905
LUXOR 7,695
TORONTO 7,558
CHAMBERY 6,900
ISLE OF MAN 6,876
SKIATHOS 6,661
GALWAY 6,650
KEFALLINIA 5,965
HAMILTON (CANADA) 5,941
INNSBRUCK 5,674
IZMIR 5,568
JERSEY 4,537
PLOVDIV 4,375
TURIN 3,179
LIMOGES 3,000
VARNA 2,898
VENICE 2,193
ROVANIEMI 2,015
GRENOBLE 913
KITTILA 878
TARBES-LOURDES 731
LONDON CITY 685
ALGHERO/SASSARI 668
ENONTEKIO 470
KEFLAVIK 321
OSTEND 293
SPLIT 267
MANCHESTER 185
BLACKPOOL 177
HAMBURG 136
LUTON 131
BRIDGETOWN 123
COLOGNE (BONN) 101
ATHENS 92
GENOA 87
AALBORG 79
BASLE MULHOUSE 72
BILLUND 64
LINZ 60
FARNBOROUGH 41
AUGSBURG 39
LILLE 39
GRAZ 36
INVERNESS 36
MADRID 33
MOLDE 24
TOTAL 5,491,606

Well that's probably not too unusual given the fixed number of seats on offer & the high LF's !;)

Bit of a vicious circle, airport facilities incapable of A380, so would be a big jump to 773's 2x daily.

Conjecture only, but it's probably a no brainer that an A380 would have been on the cards IF NCL had the facilities to handle it ?
I am presuming that runway restrictions rule this out?, and as such nothing is going to change....

I would thought EK will add a few evening flights first on busy days before going 2x daily
Maybe 10/11 flights per week to start off with

A material chunk of the difference between 2007 and 2016 is the lack of the flight to Stansted, which is perhaps a sobering reminder of just how dicey life is for a regional airport in the UK.

Interesting to see how markets have developed over the last 10 years... Some of it's surprising how much we've lost in terms of passenger numbers, routes and charters... For example:

Destination, 2007 - 2016
-Heathrow, 495,366 - 499,479 (stable, but there must have been HUGE leak onto the trains considering LGW/STN were dropped!)
-Amsterdam, 334,254 - 363,690 (peaked more when EZY were on the route)
-Palma, 298,604 - 257,176 (might come back up to near 300 thousand next year with FR on the route)
-Stansted, 297,882 - Dropped
-Bristol, 246,808 - 164,595 (*Best not mention this one, it can get heated!)
-Paris, 234,370 - 148,784 (I believe CDG will have been EZY on their 737's and Brit Air CRJ 700's at the time)
-Dublin, 227,066 - 232,538 (huge growth recently, there must have been a considerable drop on NCL-DUB around the turn of the decade)
-Belfast, 224,565 - 250,418 (One of the more stable routes, probably the same 30,000 people that used to go to Belfast City)
- Gatwick, 109,649 - Dropped

- Prague, 90,244 - 26,194
- Murcia, 87,623 - 19,355
- Krakow, 67,316 - 27,196
- Rome, 71,847 - 17,744 (all 4 of these have gone from multiple weekly frequencies on EZY's 737 700's to x2 weekly on Jet2's 737 300's - Both of which have 148 seats if you're interested - EZY must have already dropped Budapest, Copenhagen and Berlin by 2007, I assume? )

- Brussels, 38,958 - 19,431 (SN RJ100 to BM E135 I believe?)
- Dusseldorf, 20,760 - 41,630 (Surprising result! Wasn't DUS twice daily at some point with the CRJ?)
- Orlando, 18,621 - 17,453 (Back when we had a MON A330 and TOM 767 every week - interesting that there are no figures for Cancun, 2007... Was it not operated that year?)
- Stavanger, 13,086 - 6,587 (WF, Dash 8 - BM, ERJ135)

- Copenhagen, 18,891 - 22,371 (Cimber Air, CRJ 200 - SAS, CRJ 900 - Dropped 10/17)
- Bergamo, 38,580 - Dropped (almost 40k and nobody's taken a second look since FR swapped us out for Manchester)
- Belfast City, 37,208 - Dropped (Back again on the Jetstreams)
- Hanover, 32,470 - Dropped (2007 was about the time of the transfer from HLX to TUI on the Hanover route wasn't it? After HLX's other routes to Cologne, Hamburg and Munich went under - If I remember correctly)
- Bergen, 20,486 - Dropped
- Birmingham, 24,169 - Dropped
- Puerto Plata, 16,704 - Dropped (I never knew Puerto Plata was operated from NCL, I thought it was just Punta Cana. I assume this was a TOM 767?)
- Valencia, 12,089 - Dropped (I never knew we had a route to VLC either! Who operated it?)
- Torp, 10,331 - Dropped (Just add to the list of Oslo airports we no longer have service to!)
- Thessaloniki, 9,982 - Dropped (hope it pays up for LS and TOM next year)
- Luxor, 7,695 - Dropped ( another route I never knew we had! XL I assume? They were adventurous)
- Toronto, 7558 - Dropped
- Izmir, 5,568 - Dropped (We had this too?? XL?)
- Plovdiv, 4,375 - Dropped (another one! Was this XL or Balkan?)
- Varna, 2,898 - Dropped (I knew this was somewhere down the line, but not the operator... XL/BH?)
- Venice, 2,193 (These were charters I assume, too early for Jet2... But a considerable amount of passengers)
- London City, 685 - Dropped ( The first 2 months of Eastern's ill fated LCY service, IIRC. Wrong airline, wrong aircraft, wrong business model...)
- Alghero, 668 (again, must have been charters, but somewhere I never knew we had service too - Sardinia is a bugger to try and get to!)

- Hamilton, 5,941 - Dropped (were these troop charters? Seems like an awful lot of passengers! Another odd one that I didn't know about/can't understand why it ever happened! It wasn't one of those oddball Flyglobespan routes was it? I know they did a few routes to Hamilton but I never thought from Newcastle...)

It's good to see that routes like Almeria, Thessaloniki and Santorini have come back online, or will be. Were Thessaloniki and Santorini XL routes?

I think a x4 weekly evening flight from Emirates, about 8-10 months of the year, is the best we can hope for in the immediate future.

Maybe one day we'll be a Cat F airport...

Looking on the website it seems to be the Dash Q400 on the route until at least January. Also, the route is now only operating 5 times weekly, the Tuesday rotation is no longer operating in the winter.

Wow very interesting information there EK777WNCL

surprised by a few there and a shame others have picked up the route.
Maybe just shows about yields vs pax numbers

Valencia was Jet2
Hamilton was Globespan
Izmir was Thomas Cook
Luxor was Thomson