rog747. You seem to have knowledge and contacts. You appear to be a serious man and should be treated as such. But what you say regarding FR and SEN makes no sense.

No one from the Stobarti family has put a gun against MOL's head and said, "Either your signature or your brains will be on this contract." (The other way round would be more credible).

So if, for argument's sake, an FR 738SFP could only take 100 pax to Corfu, then rest assured there will only be one loser and it won't be the airline. That said, I hope both parties have concluded that the agreement will satisfy their respective requirements, providing that demand for the routes reaches expectations.

I trust your argument will now rest with the fishes.

I would have thought Ryanair not selling 40 seats for example is still economical if the fare structure is correct. Just means less £10 seats on sale.

RYR will have done their sums- they operate quite a lot of sectors where the route is performance limited, blocking off seats. What conditions are talking about Rog 747 - a hot humid windless day? They have lots of airports in Europe where they have good deals on landing and handling and live and breathe short turnarounds ( penalties for handling agents if they fail) so can probably land and top up fuel in 20 minutes. They will as has been said if need be not offer the lowest fares- maybe they figure the silvers of South East Essex will still find slightly higher fares effective. And if it doesn't work they will give up the sector and either deploy the aircraft elsewhere from SEN or base it elsewhere- they are masters of churn with often little to lose ( deals with airports so good).

Anyway I thought that the major issue has been landing performance.

If the SOPs for a 'dry runway' can be applied, that includes a damp skid-resistant grooved runway, then there should be no landing weight problems. If the runway is declared WET or contaminated that would be very limiting in terms of landing weights. Obviously the work now being undertaken on resurfacing the runway is designed prevent that happening except rarely and temporarily.

based Aircraft?
 

Out of interest, given the limits on the Runway at Southend , how many aicraft have, Ryanair based there .
I can't imagine they have a huge amount of 738's SFP capabilities.
I take it also from the above post that they are limited on weight even with that technology.
I thought years ago they had said they might look toward foreign built , Sub130 Seat aircraft .
Naturally the Sukhoi - used by Cityjet Eire
Or the VSeries now A220-100/300 Both able to be at max weight and land with only 1400 odd metres of Runway so I read .

Perhaps if Boeing and Airbus saw the advantage in having in their range an aircraft able to carry upto 130 pax on a short Runway .( C-Series , by Airbus )
And the exellent Embraer E Jets , especially the new E2 etc ( better engines , braking and electronics ).
So if the manufacturers see this , why can't the likes of Ryanair.
It would open up more routes to smaller airports , that would have the demand , but are limited by runway .
Eg they if had say the A220 could operate from LCY.

Three B738s will be based at SEN by Ryanair.

RYR economics
 

I think it is very likely that the financial incentive offered by the airport to RYR to attract them to Southend will go a long way to mitigating any reduced loads .This allows the operator to test fares and loads within the medium term to assess the the long-term viability of the base. I can't remember the actual numbers but the airport quoted a figure in the 10's of millions for new route development in either the annual report or in one of the half-yearly updates .

All this speculation why don't we just wait & see what happens when the RYR operation starts ! & then be proved correct or incorrect

Yes please!

No wonder there was warfare in the Stobart Boardroom, if the financial incentives to be paid to a new airline were massive!

Weight and balance?

Absolutely correct sir!

Those front rows are generally all booked by pax who feel paying the premium seat choice additional cost is worth the expense if it means expedited disembark is a focus for those pax. Particularly handy if traveling with no checked luggage or cabin bags, just passport and boarding pass on the app. I've only seen maybe 2 or 3 front row seats unoccupied on FR flights, they generally have a strong appeal to some pax, so clearly the surcharge isn't a barrier to filling these seats.

This could mean growth at SEN???

https://news.sky.com/story/virgin-an...-deal-11604069

or it could mean a lack of focus as attention is diverted to turning BE round?

On the face of it I can't see that this is of any benefit to SEN, but time will tell.

Ryanairs business plan relies on only using one aircraft type to keep costs down, they simply will not enter the market if it requires another type of aircraft, which would increase their costs.

A snippet from a statement posted on the Flybe thread.

The Acquisition will enable Flybe to benefit from committed strategic investment partners in terms of Cyrus, Stobart Group and Virgin Atlantic (through Connect Airways) and from an enhanced presence at London Heathrow Airport and Manchester Airport with potential to grow further in London Southend Airport.• The Acquisition and combination with franchise airline, Stobart Air, will provide the Combined Group with an opportunity to increase passenger numbers at London Southend Airport, accelerating its growth for and European air travel.

Good deal for SEN
 

The deal gives Stobart £25m up front when DPL buys a 5% share of Stobart .It then gives them a further £25m in 6 years time assuming the JV generates enough profit and cash to allow the second payment. Cash is key right now as the existing business at the airport is loss-making. Stobart loses control of Stobart Air however given that the assets are all on sale & leaseback deals this is most probably a good thing. Being a junior partner they may not have too much sway over the basing of FlyBe assets at SEN but only time will tell .for now the £25m must be very welcome at Stobart Towers .

This may mean that Stobart row back from their decision to reduce the SEN operation to just ANR, CFR, GRQ, NQY and RNS in two month's time and to terminate the Flybe franchise entirely in a year's time. The elimination of all the E195 routes from SEN is almost complete so this year's STK operation at SEN will be a shadow of its former self. Any re-think brought about by this deal, if it goes ahead, is likely to be beneficial to SEN rather than detrimental, especially in light of Warwick Brady's comments in the statement.

My interpretation of the information issued is that Stobart Air and Leasing business will be no more but will be absorbed into Connect Airways (the holding company). Stand by for a lot of pruning at some regional airports and concentrate on Heathrow, Manchester and Southampton. Of course all this has to be agreed by the shareholders which are going to get 1p per share.

It's a case of wait and see but everyone is assuming they will cut but it could also be a case of them keeping the current bases but expanding at the likes of MAN to turn it into a transatlantic hub. You've also got to remember that at Heathrow their slots are limited and it isn't a base for Flybe, all the flights are non based.

LHR probably will become a base, with transfer of some AF slots if the deeper merger goes ahead. Crewed by a reduction in BHX?

Certainly no bad news for SEN; People talk about FR doing a runner - not sure what the deal is but it is more likely they will tinker with the route structure and if/when the leave routes and some may revert to son of Stobart

All speculation I know....

Please stop being so negative about the scheduled new RYR ops from SEN, even if you read such BS from other posters. It doesn't help anybody.

FR doing a runner.........
 

The first mention I can find of FR "doing a runner" is a post on this forum #2501. When AirportPlanner1 made this post I am sure he didn't expect them to, it was just a "what if" scenario. I am sure nobody seriously expects them to up and away quickly after arrival; as has been said a lot here, they ain't stupid, they've done their homework.

At this stage it appears that the investors in Connect concur that SEN has a role to play if the takeover of Flybe goes through. Stobart people will lead, but as investment in services from the airport is no longer at their sole risk, then it's clear to me that all must have agreed to a way forward for SEN post Flybe.

As I understand it, before the (proposed) deal, both the airline and airport were part of the same business, and within the same management structure. Presumably this won't be the case going forward?

Stobart Air is the airline. Stobart Aviation is the airport operator of SEN and CAX. Both of course part of Stobart Group .

SWBKCB - I think you assume correctly

That is not actually true. Long stay car park 3 at SEN is 15 minutes free for drop off and pick up.