Well that is interesting news !!!!!!!


cs

Artists impression.........

http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/ai...-1000large.jpg

Things are getting very interesting in the widebody race now; this comes only a short few weeks after the conversion of 787-9 options to orders and we know BA is interested in Boeing 777X; could it happen that BA will end up with all three types of next generation twin engines widebodies - 787, A350 and 777X?

Great news!

BA are going to have to increase its international long-haul capability if it will successfully compete against the Middle Eastern and Asian giants. Operating a fleet that can fly to thinner long-haul routes (i.e., LHR to Manila) efficiently will be critical and the B787s and A350s will help. The A380s and some of the larger 777s can handle the main trunk routes while these types can fill in on the mid-sized cities. How else can you compete with aggressive first-class carriers like Emirates and Qatar Airways who are taking market share in long-haul markets to/from North American and Asian cities? When a business person needs to fly from San Francisco to Mumbai, BA is no longer the first consideration....

In the future, Emirates will only expand its connections and quality service to more and more cities (basically one stop service through Dubai to any big/midsized city in the world) - BA and the other Euro-based legacies will need to fight hard to be relevant to non-European long-haul passengers and differentiate their products if they intend to maintain (and maybe even grow) their market share.

Before everyone gets excited - is this just a replacement of existing aging aircraft, or an expansion ?
If it's an expansion, where exactly will the Heathrow slots come from (sacrifice some European short haul for long haul perhaps ?), or is there a plan instead to add some long haul flying at Gatwick (or some other base) instead ?

It's a replacement for the existing fleet of ageing B744s.

And by the time that these start getting delivered they are also going to be wanting to replace the oldest 772 models


cs

I sincerely hope the B787 / A350 is an expansion with a return on a direct basis to the lost cities of Manila, Taipei and Jakarta. 800m people in SE Asia and some of the fastest growing economies. Direct access to London would give BA and the UK huge competitive advantage over our Middle East friends.

How would BA expand at LHR? The only option they have would be to downgrade domestic flights in order to extend their long haul route expansion. Of course the other option would be to operate out of the regions, but as there is no interest then it aint going to happen.

Think you've answered your own question there.

Not just domestic - I expect you'll see the odd short-haul market trimmed in due course.

3x daily to Leeds Bradford versus the sole direct operator to an emerging long-haul destination? Hmmm....

Manila, Taipei and Jakarta are all examples of destinations now becoming more difficult for BA, with the rise of the Gulf carriers and Turkish, who will all offer one-stop services from multiple UK points at less than whatever BA choose to charge, the local national carrier, who will be an initial choice for many of the passengers originating in those countries, OneWorld carriers Cathay (especially) and Malaysian, who will suck up the OneWorld FF cardholders, low-yield markets (especially the first and third), and the fact that London is too far west to offer connections onward to Europe, and these points are too far east for BA to offer connections from them to the USA, because it is shorter the other way round.

Jakarta/CGK was mentioned - Garuda are (re-) starting from Gatwick for the W13 season, with new 777ER's. These will be non-stops, unlike the "bus-stop" services (en-route to Bali/DPS) that I remember from the 90's.

Their previous reputation might disuade Europeans, but as WHBM said they may be first choice for pax from the originating Country.

No doubt they will in time pick-up lots of a UK leisure pax looking for another 1 stop option to DPS aswell.

For lost cities we can also add KL to the list and its somewhat outdated to think about Manila and Jakarta as low yield. For the Middle East carriers that maybe so because they are carrying hoards of overseas workers to work in the Gulf. For example the UK is the largest foreign investor in the Philippines, hence the Presidents visit to the UK last year. SE Asia is a market nearly the size of China in terms of population and attractiveness.
There is strong one world competition from CX and MH also Garuda and PR have both stated they want to open up to London.
BA still have the same agent in Manila and their own check in desk with the first leg on CX via HKG. This is about routes that have been served in the recent past
However the game changer could be what the B787 and A350 was designed for, long thin direct routes bypassing the need to stops at hubs.
Could it be the antidote to Middle East Carriers for premium passengers who prefer a nights rest rather than a wake up call in the middle of the night to change aircraft in the gulf! It gets my vote

Some very good points being made regarding higher yield on developing destinations in Far East etc. But do we think there are enough slots at LHR to accommodate such flights? Of course domestic and short-haul can be cut (LBA, AGP and IBZ spring to mind amongst others...) but would there be enough O&D traffic to justify this in terms of the lost traffic from domestic/European transfers?

I used to travel BA to Jakarta quite regularly in the 90's and Business Class was always full.

Agree slots are the issue and dare i say move leisure routes to LGW as in the past. Its LHR and world class T5 that passengers would prefer and new routes with direct connections to SEAsia would be attractive i hope to the UK regions and near Europe connections. Rolling back the the love affair the regions seem to have with Middle East Carriers and maybe restoring aviation jobs to the UK.
Unlikely that GA or PR would get into LHR giving BA the advantage for Premium traffic

mybrico ... would be nice but it's way too late for that.

Irrespective of what any individual European legacy carrier might do - the swing of power to the Middle and Far East is far too strong to stop. One simple example, Qantas moved their European partnerships.

For those that used to change at LHR before the long haul, to now have a break closer to mid-way in the flight is appealing. The 45/60 minutes at the UK end is very tiring, particularly after an 11 hour sector. I have done those trips in the past and didn't like it.

There is no doubt that IAG clearly understands how things are going to be, both the non-expansion of LHR and the the M.E. situation.

I respect your view but i prefer a nights sleep than 7 hours and then another 6 hour flight from MNL to LHR, its down to the individual
Its about choice and I would like BA to bring it back with A350's and B787's. Although I accept that at least one flight may have to be a daylight sector.
Whilst traffic has / may move to the middle east hubs i don't think its game over.
London and the UK are world class destinations and direct links are desirable and necessary to growing parts of the world. Its good for UK plc as well as BA.
Its not unfortunately about expanding LHR but making the best use of it

Don't forget another threat in the region for BA....
 

BA is certainly concerned about the likes of EK, EY and QR. But they also much watch their back closer to home: Turkish Airlines could be an even more powerful adversary given:

• Significant access to 2nd and 3rd tier airports in the EU (8-9 cities in Germany alone vs. 3-4 for Emirates)
• Huge new fleet with a bigger longhaul order on the way soon - could be more 777s or some new A380s/748s
• A new airport planned including 5-6 runways to accomodate all of the potential growth
• Intent on ultimately using 300-400 new or relatively new aircraft to serve 300 destinations worldwide (many of them nonstop with multiple frequencies for destinations within a certain radius) - how can BA or any other Euro legacy compete with that connectivity?
• Fantastic geographic location - perfect gateway between East/West

Everyone talks about how BA is threatened by EK, EY and QR, but they need to look closer as well. :eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::cool:

Yes Turkish is the same business model potentially as the Gulf airlines and may be a better location.
The question is the same - what is the response to super hubs
BA have a huge advantage - London and the UK - people want to fly there. Direct access to major world cities using the technology of the next generation aircraft to achieve that could make the best use of BA resources.
Adding back emerging world cities like Manila, Jakarta, Taipei, KL to the BA route map is a realistic alternative. Even direct flights to long reach cities like Sydney and Melbourne.
Its not an option to compete with subsidized Superhubs, i want to go direct