Flybe-V1
indeed, as SLF I prefer the loco model as it has provided many new services as well as low fares. No one operating under the 1990s model would have operated triple daily 186 seaters on a route like BRS-BFS, but that’s what’s on offer. I can remember dispatching Dan Air budgies that couldn’t make money on BFS-BRS-CWL-BFS services in the 1980s
Can someone offer triple daily 50 seaters with fares like EasyJet? I don’t think so. There seems to be a break point where fares are so low ( in the £30 - £50 per sector) that the volumes step change and you can fill 320s. So you either run Loganair business type services with hefty prices or reduce the fares and drive volume like EasyJet. The problem is that if you prove the viability of a route to generate decent volumes at £150 per sector, the locos know from their price elasticity experience that they can come on the route with a 186 seater and fill it. I don’t see a future for the Loganair model except for Highlands and Islands type services where volumes will always be low.
Can someone offer triple daily 50 seaters with fares like EasyJet? I don’t think so. There seems to be a break point where fares are so low ( in the £30 - £50 per sector) that the volumes step change and you can fill 320s. So you either run Loganair business type services with hefty prices or reduce the fares and drive volume like EasyJet. The problem is that if you prove the viability of a route to generate decent volumes at £150 per sector, the locos know from their price elasticity experience that they can come on the route with a 186 seater and fill it. I don’t see a future for the Loganair model except for Highlands and Islands type services where volumes will always be low.
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ETOPS; interested to hear your take on when this will all actually happen. I used to work for them and have also heard BHX, then MAN and perhaps BHD/SOU, but things continue to be kicked along the road with no firm dates announced.
How long can a “virtual airline” afford to take to get its act together? They have a bunch of people working for them, all being paid, an office (somewhere) requiring rents, still only one aged Dash on the books (or is it?) and apparently some pilots, crews and administrators all being slowly recruited if LinkedIn is to be believed.
But one thing they’re not doing is generating any income by flying anything, even the odd charter and certainly not (as far as I can tell), doing anything wrt crew retraining to make that happen any time soon. How long can that last?
Its all very well sitting waiting for the right moment to hit the market with something crowd pleasing, but from where I sit with experience of many years painfully watching Flybe drift from one crisis to another, I haven’t seen anything to convince me I wasn’t right to keep well clear of this revised operation when loosely offered the chance to get involved.
How long can a “virtual airline” afford to take to get its act together? They have a bunch of people working for them, all being paid, an office (somewhere) requiring rents, still only one aged Dash on the books (or is it?) and apparently some pilots, crews and administrators all being slowly recruited if LinkedIn is to be believed.
But one thing they’re not doing is generating any income by flying anything, even the odd charter and certainly not (as far as I can tell), doing anything wrt crew retraining to make that happen any time soon. How long can that last?
Its all very well sitting waiting for the right moment to hit the market with something crowd pleasing, but from where I sit with experience of many years painfully watching Flybe drift from one crisis to another, I haven’t seen anything to convince me I wasn’t right to keep well clear of this revised operation when loosely offered the chance to get involved.
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This one is easy. While other airlines are flying around trying to get whatever income they can to pay for their fleet and wages bill, Flybe can afford to wait until the time is right to actually make a profit. The low fixed costs are nothing compared to running services at a loss.
There needs to be at least a couple of months from flights going on sale, to first flight operating, if only because pax will be a bit sceptical after March 2020. Granted operating empty flights would be a disaster... but when *should* that first real flight be ? Would maybe Jan 2022 give enough time to have everything ready for a photo opp with a cake ?
Davidjpowell
Interesting view. Flybe must now be paying for aircraft (otherwise they could not hold an AOC] and the bunch of consultants on day rates on not come cheap. They will certainly be burning cash and the only question is how much. You are then assuming every other rival airline is burning cash. How can you say that with certainty ?
Interesting view. Flybe must now be paying for aircraft (otherwise they could not hold an AOC] and the bunch of consultants on day rates on not come cheap. They will certainly be burning cash and the only question is how much. You are then assuming every other rival airline is burning cash. How can you say that with certainty ?
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Flight crew vacancies advertised on LinkedIn today
Adverts for Line Captains, First Officers, Cabin Managers, Senior Cabin Crew and Junior Cabin Crew all out on LinkedIn today.
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I suppose I can't be certain. I'm pretty positive though!
The only way an airline can make money at the moment is if they can downsize their fleet to remove fleet cost, get rid of the crew (without paying redundancy), and downsize their head office costs in line with their current schedule. I don't believe that has happened. Airlines have saved what they can, perhaps made some redundancies and borrowed lots of cash. Logan Air for instance took a £25m facility.
If they get the right fleet and route structure they are going to come to market with no debt from the last 2 years. It will be interesting to see what difference that makes.
The only way an airline can make money at the moment is if they can downsize their fleet to remove fleet cost, get rid of the crew (without paying redundancy), and downsize their head office costs in line with their current schedule. I don't believe that has happened. Airlines have saved what they can, perhaps made some redundancies and borrowed lots of cash. Logan Air for instance took a £25m facility.
If they get the right fleet and route structure they are going to come to market with no debt from the last 2 years. It will be interesting to see what difference that makes.
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It’s likely not true that they will have no debt. They had a Dash 8 for a couple of months, have been paying management and consultants since start up and will have a huge advertising bill to replace all the Flybe broke stories that appear when you google them. It will depend how much they have in start up money but they are spending a lot with no income at all.
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The Dash 8 they did have (G-CLXC), is no longer with them. It ferried across the pond to Canada, and has been de registered by the CAA on the 10th September 2021.
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Speculating here but I suppose a BHX base means there is a high chance they will be operating to Belfast, Edinburgh, Glasgow and Amsterdam - the old traditional Flybe stomping ground.
So they will be up against easyjet - who I suspect will try to stick around on those routes post Covid.
Intrigued to see how this fares!
So they will be up against easyjet - who I suspect will try to stick around on those routes post Covid.
Intrigued to see how this fares!
Possibly, but I would put more money on the likes of STR, LYS, BER, NOC and possibly the Channel Islands.
On BHX / Scottish and Belfast routes business passengers need frequency and there could be a gap in the market if EZY don't offer more than 2 daily on GLA / EDI.
I can't see a fleet of more than 5 a/c in the first year.
On BHX / Scottish and Belfast routes business passengers need frequency and there could be a gap in the market if EZY don't offer more than 2 daily on GLA / EDI.
I can't see a fleet of more than 5 a/c in the first year.
On BHX-GLA/EDI, if easyJet remain and pick up volume, there's no gap in the market. It stops the old higher frequency low volume model from making any money as the volume to support it is cut away. IOM is the current case study. The "old traditional stomping grounds" are not the same as they were.
Looking at Flybe 2, it is technically possible for them to have no debt. The start-up costs could well have been funded through equity instead of debt but either way, it is money on which either a bank or the shareholder is expecting a fulsome return!
I think other airlines have done exactly as you describe (Eastern for one). Many airlines have taken on loans with Loganair included, and what isn’t clear now is where they all sit. Jet2 reported that they had taken a Government CCFF loan but their cash position was strong and if you look at the net debt position then it was quite strong. Others could well be in the same boat. I think the one thing you can say with certainty is that no airline will have taken on debt just to keep losing money and without taking actions to cut their cash burn radically. No-one is that stupid.
In other words, I don’t think anyone can say for certain whether or not Flybe 2 has a great advantage over others. It might have, but might not.
I think other airlines have done exactly as you describe (Eastern for one). Many airlines have taken on loans with Loganair included, and what isn’t clear now is where they all sit. Jet2 reported that they had taken a Government CCFF loan but their cash position was strong and if you look at the net debt position then it was quite strong. Others could well be in the same boat. I think the one thing you can say with certainty is that no airline will have taken on debt just to keep losing money and without taking actions to cut their cash burn radically. No-one is that stupid.
In other words, I don’t think anyone can say for certain whether or not Flybe 2 has a great advantage over others. It might have, but might not.
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There is still a market for them but the landscape has definitely changed that's for sure. I see no reason why they won't be able to push the likes of T3, LM etc off most of their routes like they did in the past (obviously not the Scottish highland routes). We know T3 rarely stick around on routes when competition turns up and LM are all over the place with their fleet. They must have at least 5 different types currently complicating their ops? Not to mention their main re-fleet are circa 25 year old ATRs that are no match to the q400. I think its important to remember that a lot of BEs trunk routes were up to 5 flights a day, whilst that will not be sustainable any more, 3 flights a day could be. Also worth mentioning that a lot of the French regional routes that they served have are not being served by anyone so that market is still there for them. Also some key hub routes like SOU to CDG etc. There is a place for a smaller BE and if its debt free they stand a good chance.
Good post, but the reason they won't easily push a.n.other off is that they'll need to lead on price as a lot of people, certainly many regulars will know they went bust, closed down and left a debt trail. The price will have to be good. And Loganair have a load of old jets that can go head to head with a Q400 if that's felt necessary, and be honest, on short haul, Joe Public can't tell a 25 year old ATR from a 20 year old Q400.
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SKOJB
Where did I say that they needed to be served straight away? Do you think all those people with second homes in France sold them during lockdown? If anything COVID has probably increased the chance of more people buying holiday homes. When things open up fully then the market will be there.
Where did I say that they needed to be served straight away? Do you think all those people with second homes in France sold them during lockdown? If anything COVID has probably increased the chance of more people buying holiday homes. When things open up fully then the market will be there.