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Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel

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Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel

Old 13th Apr 2020, 18:24
  #581 (permalink)  
 
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The market for travel is built on the need or desire to physically meet people - vfr traffic and business meetings. Both of these things are effectively off limits. Then there is tourism but with almost all hotels shut, where would folks stay?
When restrictions on the drivers and enablers of travel start to be lifted there will be more flying. The immediate question for airlines starting passenger flying programs again is 'where will they be allowed to fly to?'. Who would want a plane-load of Brits or Belgians or Germans etc etc?
This crisis will create a deep seated xenophobia in places that we used to travel to with ease; as well as our own home-grown version (frankly who would welcome a coach load of chinese tourists turning up at their venue right now or even in the medium-term given that they started the whole thing). That will take some time to dissipate. Brits literally may not be allowed in to some countries for months to come or longer. It will be a long slog back to what was there before (3-5 years imo). Even when a vaccine is readily available, many countries may insist on a certificate of proof prior to entry. The barriers to travel are not coming down any time soon even if the desire returns.
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Old 14th Apr 2020, 07:02
  #582 (permalink)  
 
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It’s entirely feasible that the UK will be moving again by early May and that there will be movement again in to most parts of Europe at least by June
I don't think I'll be back in my office by early May, much less thinking about travelling for business or any other reason. France has just extended their lockdown to 11 May, so travel to most parts of Europe by June looks optimistic
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Old 14th Apr 2020, 07:54
  #583 (permalink)  
 
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There is a huge elephant in the room. So bad has been our Governmentís preparation and response to the virus, with so little testing, that while parts of Europe may well be open by June we may find that as Brits we are ourselves subject to entry restrictions and thus cannot go.
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Old 14th Apr 2020, 08:09
  #584 (permalink)  
 
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Don’t think many governments have come out of this looking good. The EU has been a total shambles with each country doing their own thing with zero unity between the 27. The four nations of the UK have acted as one but like most countries have been slow to respond.

As for air travel I hope other nations do put restrictions on the UK as it helps to keep us from importing other cases.

Last edited by LTNman; 14th Apr 2020 at 08:24.
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Old 14th Apr 2020, 10:30
  #585 (permalink)  
 
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There seem to me only three ways this crisis will end.
1. Some drug treatment is discovered which blocks the immune overreaction which is killing people by damaging their lungs. I see no sign of this although there are clinical trials.
2. After the current lockdown succeeds in reducing the numbers to a manageable level, the disease is allowed to work its way through the population until herd immunity is established. The studies on a few severely affected communities suggest that the first wave reached ca 15%, so it will take many months for this to happen. Most lockdown rules would have to continue all this time. (In Hokkaido, which had an early outbreak, they've just had to reimpose restrictions after a second wave began.)
3. A successful vaccine is created and is manufactured at scale. Not before this winter.

I see no way that significant international flights will restart this summer.
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Old 14th Apr 2020, 10:49
  #586 (permalink)  
 
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Article from Travel Weekly this morning would support that EU have similar thoughts...

https://www.travelweekly.co.uk/artic...s-ec-president

Totally understandable but not the sort of news those hoping for a swift return for aviation would wish to hear.
The global picture may be different of course with the Americans sounding rather gung-ho overnight but I would imagine a common sense approach with a gradual relaxation of the rules when the time is right is what will be seen. The unanswered question is when “when” will be but it will evidently vary from country to country.
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Old 14th Apr 2020, 10:51
  #587 (permalink)  
 
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I think we can all be certain that restrictions will be lifted way to early so to save the economy. Pubs, restaurants and mass gatherings will be the last to be lifted and probably not until the autumn. Those taking self isolation seriously will just carry on regardless as there will still be many new cases reported daily as those coming out of isolation get infected. Air travel will be decimated well into next year.
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Old 14th Apr 2020, 11:03
  #588 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by LTNman View Post
Donít think many governments have come out of this looking good. The EU has been a total shambles with each country doing their own thing with zero unity between the 27. The four nations of the UK have acted as one but like most countries have been slow to respond
There are some looking particularly bad, and they have politics in common...Trump, Johnson, Erdogan, Bolsonaro.

Funny you say the nations of the EU have been doing their own thing...I was told Brussels has all the power and leaving the EU would enable us to control our own borders?

There are also a number of countries that have done particularly well
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Old 14th Apr 2020, 11:41
  #589 (permalink)  
 
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AirportPlanner1
I would be interested to hear which countries you think are handling CVD19 well and why?
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Old 14th Apr 2020, 11:51
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27 voices, 27 different policies and zero coordination in a crisis. Politicians at each other’s throats where they can’t even agree a financial response that has any meaning.

Worth a read for those that think the EU can do nothing wrong https://euobserver.com/coronavirus/148039

Each European country will have there own policy on opening up borders. Flight from Romania to Luton are expected to resume on the 19th

Last edited by LTNman; 14th Apr 2020 at 12:05.
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Old 14th Apr 2020, 12:01
  #591 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by commit aviation View Post
AirportPlanner1
I would be interested to hear which countries you think are handling CVD19 well and why?
New Zealand - early lockdown, early checking & quarantine of arrivals, open/transparent leadership/decision making

Singapore, S Korea - Thorough testing etc, kept what could be huge infections and death tolls under control

Austria - Quickly and firmly took action, now reaping rewards as early to start resuming parts of normal life

Germany - No better/worse than most other European countries but starting point of excellent critical care capacity which helps explain low death rate
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Old 14th Apr 2020, 12:19
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Italy has announced increased restrictions to its borders today while starting to relax a few restrictions to those living in Italy. I would hope we would follow with our own border restrictions. What is the point of having our own social isolation when we just let anyone in from anywhere in the world with no quarantine, no checks and no questions.

Last edited by LTNman; 14th Apr 2020 at 12:30.
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Old 14th Apr 2020, 12:54
  #593 (permalink)  
 
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Even when flights resume, if social-distancing is still be practiced (which is highly likely), the practicalities of handling passengers will be immensely difficult. Two metres separation between people at bag drops/check-in, security and the gate will make scheduling of flights radically different from what we are used to. Boarding the aircraft even with a significantly lower number of passengers to maintain social separation will need to be well-controlled, needing extra staff and time.

The capacity of all flights will also need to be drastically reduced. For example on a typical A320/737 only seats A and F could be used to ensure some distance is maintained from cabin crew, and only every third or fourth row at that, reducing the capacity on each flight to around 30 or so passengers. It would also not be possible to provide any inflight sales, so the pricing structure of flights will need to reflect this - I think we could easily be looking at fares pro-rata similar to business class in the 1980s, with typical 1.5 to 2 hour European sectors needing to be around £500.00 GBp each way.
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Old 14th Apr 2020, 13:36
  #594 (permalink)  
 
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If you want to see a lack of social distancing come to Luton Airport's arrivals and watch the handful of flights being met by friends and family. There is absolutely no social distancing but a lot of kissing and cuddling.
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Old 14th Apr 2020, 18:04
  #595 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by LTNman View Post
I think we can all be certain that restrictions will be lifted way to early so to save the economy.
This type of cynicism is most unhelpful in the context of a very challenging national debate. COVID-19 was a brand-new virus when it emerged in December. No medical expert - let alone any politician - knew how it would play out ahead of time. For this, politicians in the UK have turned to advice from the medical and scientific community. There has been cross-party support for this approach, and rightly so. The party leaders in the UK are not medical doctors. Their job is to take on the advice of the Chief Medical Officer and the Chief Scientific Adviser and implement it on a best endeavour basis. Dealing with the virus is a steep learning curve for everyone, and it is easy for 'gotcha' journalists and keyboard warriors to criticise. But would they do any better? Having unlimited PPE, unlimited ventilators, unlimited reliable testing kits and a viable vaccine from day one would be lovely. Well, there is no magic wand for that. Everybody is doing the best they can. Party-political affiliations are not the problem. Production capacity is.

Timing the relaxation of lockdown restrictions will be a matter of delicate judgment. The economy is a valid consideration (the death rate rises in recessions), but not the only one. There is a good reason why 'solitary confinement' is considered a punishment in the penal system. It adversely impacts mental wellbeing. When assessing the C-19 measures, the benefits of restricting transmission of the virus on the one hand must be weighed against competing medical implications on the other. Depression, suicidal tendencies, anxiety attacks, loneliness, alcoholism, substance abuse, self-harm, problem gambling, domestic violence, stress, physical inactivity, comfort eating, backlogging of deferred elective surgeries, missed cancer check-ups. The extended lockdown costs lives too. Many shades of grey must be considered in timing the easing of restrictions. Remember too that a very high percentage of C-19 deaths befall people with remaining life expectancy of less than three months due to existing conditions. C-19 can administer the 'final push' to those already in palliative care. Every life is precious, but that must include those resulting from the unintended consequences of longterm lockdown too. The medical profession has a very difficult call to make on this one, and the politicians would be foolish to second-guess their advice. They know that armchair critics will rile against them whatever they decide (as if they know better). We should offer our support to those making the tough calls and avoid the temptation to join the baying mob. Criticising with the benefit of hindsight is so easy.

There are some looking particularly bad, and they have politics in common...Trump, Johnson, Erdogan, Bolsonaro.
PPRuNe purports to be a forum for professionals. So surely we can rise above nonsense like this? Those four names represent national leaders who have little in common politically. To lump them together with some absurd innuendo doesn't inform us about their respective strategies to deal with C-19. It just makes you come across as rather silly. Please show us you can be better than that.

I'm sure most here wish to see the airline industry return to normality ASAP. But that's going to be a long-haul (pardon the pun). Let's try to stay objective and plan for the future rationally. The virus is nobody's fault. It's one of those things, like an earthquake, a tornado, or a volcanic eruption. Sometimes bad stuff happens. The sooner we quit playing the blame-game and look to rebuilding the industry with positive intent, the sooner we will emerge from this mess.
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Old 14th Apr 2020, 18:29
  #596 (permalink)  
 
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This type of cynicism is most unhelpful in the context of a very challenging national debate
That wasn't cynicism but more of what is going to happen. If there is no cure apart from isolation then we should be locked down until there are zero cases. That could take a year or more and then we would still import cases with our lax borders. At some point the economy will be restarted because it has to and we will be hit with a second and third wave. By that point the people will start to accept that deaths will have to happen and that the strongest will survive.
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Old 14th Apr 2020, 18:58
  #597 (permalink)  
 
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[QUOTE=OzzyOzBorn;10749989 No medical expert - let alone any politician - knew how it would play out ahead of time. For this, politicians in the UK have turned to advice from the medical and scientific community.[/QUOTE]

If what we are led to believe is true, they did know about this outbreak in China and Medical officers who were working on it were hushed up and then mislead the WHO and many others. How much of this could have been prevented. Who knows ? The whole world is in a mess now virally and financially, we will have to bide our time and hope we come through it. I would rather stay in lockdown and stay safe for as long as it takes, lets face it the other option is less favourable, who wants to die.
STAY home and be SAFE
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Old 14th Apr 2020, 19:31
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If what we are led to believe is true, they did know about this outbreak in China and Medical officers who were working on it were hushed up and then mislead the WHO and many others. How much of this could have been prevented.

1. Who has the most to gain?
2. Can you really trust the Chinese figures?
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Old 14th Apr 2020, 20:14
  #599 (permalink)  
 
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Even when it wasn't hushed up the world knew there was no cure and still kept air travel open to China which let the genie out of the bottle. The UK tracked the first few cases from China and then Italy and then it was out in the community so it was by then too late. The UK was no different from the rest of the world though in letting this virus spread. Maybe if the virus had started in some West African state there would have been more of a response to halt travel but China was too powerful.
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Old 14th Apr 2020, 20:31
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I'm not sure that China being powerful was the sole reason flights were not stopped. I think also that the number of people travelling each day between China and the rest of the world is vastly more than the number of people travelling between Dem Rep Congo and the rest of the world. Wuhan had non-stop flights to Heathrow - nowhere in DRC has direct flights to the UK
There was simply too much economic activity between China and the rest of the world and too much money involved spread over different people for Govt, airlines and corporations around the world to agree voluntarily amongst themselves of the need to close all the links

I agree with LTNman though - had something nasty appeared in Lubumbashi (2nd city in DRC, 2 million urban residents), nobody would have thought twice about closing DRC off from the rest of the world - and even companies sourcing various mined minerals would have known to just keep quiet
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