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Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel

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Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel

Old 10th Mar 2020, 10:56
  #241 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by FZRA View Post
What do you suggest then....the entire World sits at home eating dry pasta until that runs out and then what?
eat all your stockpiled bog roll
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Old 10th Mar 2020, 10:59
  #242 (permalink)  
 
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China (population 1.4 billion) got on top of this very quickly after a relatively slow response. A country much larger than Europe (population 750 million) was shut down and controlled by one very “forceful” (communist) government! They clicked their fingers and you did what you were told! In Macau they closed the border and virtually shut down their airport. The result has been only 10 cases and no more despite being right next door to China. In Europe you have “free movement” of people and over a dozen different governments with their own different ideas on how to contain this. The biggest problem right now is “free movement” of people which is going to make this whole outbreak much - “MUCH” worse before it gets better. You have to stop movement from infected areas to slow this down otherwise it won’t stop! Let’s face it, after China’s experience our governments in Europe don’t seem to have a clue where to start! Airports in Northern Italy are still open moving infectious people all over Europe with the result being massive increases in infections everywhere. STOP moving people is the only solution right now. Short term pain is the only solution to long term gain with this! Air traffic needs to come to a virtual stop for up to a month and borders need to be closed across the EU including all the Schengen countries otherwise it WILL NOT be contained will it??? The response so far is too little too late in my view despite the lessons from China! All this nonsense about “use it or loose it” with slots and low cost airlines not wanting to give passengers refunds is totally irrelevant compared to this virus spreading out of control! The Government / industry needs to wake up very quickly indeed! This ‘IS NOT” a practice drill - this is for real and you get one chance!
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Old 10th Mar 2020, 11:31
  #243 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by mrshubigbus View Post
China (population 1.4 billion) got on top of this very quickly after a relatively slow response. A country much larger than Europe (population 750 million) was shut down and controlled by one very “forceful” (communist) government! They clicked their fingers and you did what you were told! In Macau they closed the border and virtually shut down their airport. The result has been only 10 cases and no more despite being right next door to China. In Europe you have “free movement” of people and over a dozen different governments with their own different ideas on how to contain this. The biggest problem right now is “free movement” of people which is going to make this whole outbreak much - “MUCH” worse before it gets better. You have to stop movement from infected areas to slow this down otherwise it won’t stop! Let’s face it, after China’s experience our governments in Europe don’t seem to have a clue where to start! Airports in Northern Italy are still open moving infectious people all over Europe with the result being massive increases in infections everywhere. STOP moving people is the only solution right now. Short term pain is the only solution to long term gain with this! Air traffic needs to come to a virtual stop for up to a month and borders need to be closed across the EU including all the Schengen countries otherwise it WILL NOT be contained will it??? The response so far is too little too late in my view despite the lessons from China! All this nonsense about “use it or loose it” with slots and low cost airlines not wanting to give passengers refunds is totally irrelevant compared to this virus spreading out of control! The Government / industry needs to wake up very quickly indeed! This ‘IS NOT” a practice drill - this is for real and you get one chance!
The reason teh virus spread in China was because Chinese Govt did not do lockdown not because they did it.

Wuhan could have been locked down 2 weeks earlier and stopped it there and then. They didn't and with millions going back home for New Year holidays the virus went with them. Baidu maps correlated the movement of people from Wuhan and the increase in cases, further correlated by Chinese mobile phone companies.

The idea that supposed "Liberal Democracy" states willnot take specific action is laughable, they will but when it suits not when needed. No different from anywhere else.
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Old 10th Mar 2020, 11:36
  #244 (permalink)  
 
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur...ustom2=twitter

Austria is closing its boarder with Italy
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Old 10th Mar 2020, 12:23
  #245 (permalink)  
 
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Jet2 cancelling all flights from the UK to Italy.

https://www.yorkshireeveningpost.co....tbreak-2445228
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Old 10th Mar 2020, 12:47
  #246 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Expressflight View Post
I think your 'understanding' is a little off the mark. According to WHO this type of virus usually gives 18 to 24 months of immunity, although it's obviously too early to be certain of that in the case of Covid-19. But I think to say, as you did, "You can catch it over and over again" is irresponsible.
Yet Japan has reported reinfections and I know I read of others so not so irresponsible
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Old 10th Mar 2020, 12:59
  #247 (permalink)  
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https://corporate.ryanair.com/news/r...aly/?market=en

Ryanair suspends all Italian flights
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Old 10th Mar 2020, 14:28
  #248 (permalink)  
 
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Spain has just shut the door on ALL Italian flights from midnight tomorrow https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/busi...ost_type=share
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Old 10th Mar 2020, 14:43
  #249 (permalink)  
 
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Sorry who? Which airline is this?


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Old 10th Mar 2020, 15:00
  #250 (permalink)  
 
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And on the 4th April (start of Easter) all will be right with Italy. I am thinking summer at the earliest if not longer and then there will still be no bookings as the public are spooked.
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Old 10th Mar 2020, 16:05
  #251 (permalink)  
 
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So which airlines could handle say 3 months lost bookings spread over six months? This seems a likely scenario at present
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Old 10th Mar 2020, 16:37
  #252 (permalink)  
 
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Cash Flow is the major thing - even the biggies likes EZY and RYR can get very hurt or go boom or bust just because of the lack of cash flow
Many airlines nowadays have few or no assets as a/c are leased.

One saving grace if fuel prices stay very low and Govt's perhaps do something about easing passenger taxes and APD (but then the Greens will kick off)
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Old 10th Mar 2020, 17:38
  #253 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ZFT View Post
Yet Japan has reported reinfections and I know I read of others so not so irresponsible
If you read up a little on the case of the one Japanese woman (yes it was just one) who was tested positive a couple of weeks after being cleared of the virus at a hospital, you will find that nearly all the experts thought that is a case of the original infection lying dormant and then perhaps reaching her lower respiratory system. At that point she reported a sore throat and chest pains and was tested again and found positive. There was a similar report of a Chinese woman presenting in that way.
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Old 10th Mar 2020, 17:50
  #254 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by rog747 View Post
Cash Flow is the major thing - even the biggies likes EZY and RYR can get very hurt or go boom or bust just because of the lack of cash flow
Many airlines nowadays have few or no assets as a/c are leased.

One saving grace if fuel prices stay very low and Govt's perhaps do something about easing passenger taxes and APD (but then the Greens will kick off)
Ryanair have $4bn in the bank and own 90% of their aircraft.
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Old 10th Mar 2020, 18:05
  #255 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Dannyboy39 View Post
Ryanair have $4bn in the bank and own 90% of their aircraft.
I did say ''Many'' not all

FYI EZY lost 20% of their value last week
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Old 10th Mar 2020, 18:34
  #256 (permalink)  
 
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Ryanair suspends all Italian flights
Are they being selective? 5 minutes ago, a quick look at traffic around Italy showed a Ryanair arriving at Bologna ex Eindhoven, a flight from Naples to Bergamo and another en route from Rome to Barcelona. Although all carrying Ryanair flight numbers, the 3 aircraft are part of the Malta Air fleet.
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Old 10th Mar 2020, 18:41
  #257 (permalink)  

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Ryanair's international flights to and from Italy will be suspended from midnight this coming Friday (13 March) until midnight on 8 April.

Their domestic flights within Italy will be suspended from midnight tomorrow, again until 8 April.



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Old 10th Mar 2020, 19:12
  #258 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by rog747 View Post
Cash Flow is the major thing - even the biggies likes EZY and RYR can get very hurt or go boom or bust just because of the lack of cash flow
Many airlines nowadays have few or no assets as a/c are leased.

One saving grace if fuel prices stay very low and Govt's perhaps do something about easing passenger taxes and APD (but then the Greens will kick off)
Biggest payments for airlines are 1.) Manufacturers 2.) Wages 3.) Fuel 4.) Airports / ATC / APD

Ryanair likely would be to EXIM but bearing in mind that Boeing will owe Ryanair couple of hundred million for Max issue then really not an issue, U2 will get relief via National Govts who will want to look after national airlines and airbus.
Staff will be paid but lots will be laid off which Govts will be paying as technically unemployed unless Govts do a deal, can see this happening
Fuel - Drop in fuel prices is of no benefit as airlines will have forward bought into next year, they will need to use up what they bought and as nobody flying it could be 2 yrs worth. Unless a deal done but if not using then little cash going out.
Airports / ATC................... generally owned by Govts who will hold back on demands for money to ensure airlines don't go bust. Govt aid ( with EU support) will stop shouting.

Airlines can survive to end of year in reduced capacity provided they manage the cash and Govts in relation to APD operate leniently.
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Old 10th Mar 2020, 19:13
  #259 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by KelvinD View Post
Are they being selective? 5 minutes ago, a quick look at traffic around Italy showed a Ryanair arriving at Bologna ex Eindhoven, a flight from Naples to Bergamo and another en route from Rome to Barcelona. Although all carrying Ryanair flight numbers, the 3 aircraft are part of the Malta Air fleet.
An immediate shutdown leaves people stranded. A phased shutdown allows options.
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Old 11th Mar 2020, 11:02
  #260 (permalink)  
 
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If you have seen the video from my previous post, Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel and you want to make your own mind up on how long this is going to go on for..... take a look here https://www.who.int/emergencies/dise...ation-reports/ it updates daily about 20:00 UTC - very fascinating!!

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