TUI Airways

[awwdabaaby]

Originally Posted by ROC10

Could be but I don’t think so. G-OOBD and G-OOBF have already done that this year and to my knowledge, the tour never originates in China.

Its possible Icelandair has taken up the round the world trip as TUI couldn't fulfil the requirement due to the max grounding I'm sure

[ROC10]

Originally Posted by awwdabaaby

Its possible Icelandair has taken up the round the world trip as TUI couldn't fulfil the requirement due to the max grounding I'm sure

As far as I’m aware the tours are done for this winter but could be wrong. I believe Titan will take over these duties from next winter due to TUI’s reduced 757 fleet.

[SWBKCB]

TUI’s chief executive of aviation Kenton Jarvis:

“In the UK we’re looking to add capacity,” Jarvis explains. “So we’ll be adding a lot of seats in the UK – 10, 12, 13, 14 aircraft will come in to add that capacity in the UK, because obviously Thomas Cook had 33 aircraft [in the country], so if we take our natural 30-35% market share that gives us a good opportunity to grow there.”

For its 2020 fiscal year, beginning 1 October 2019, the operator expects “an underlying EBIT range of between approximately €950 million [$1.05 billion] to €1.05 billion, which includes an approximate €130 million cost impact from the 737 Max grounding, assuming a scenario whereby the Max returns to service by end of April 2020”. Should the Max not return by end-April, however, and TUI “has to plan for a continued grounding for the remainder of FY20”, the group assumes “a further cost of between approximately €220 million to €270 million”.Neither scenarios take into account potential compensation from Boeing.

TUI aviation chief Kenton Jarvis on Boeing 737 Max grounding and Thomas Cook’s collapse

[Yeehaw22]

Originally Posted by ROC10

As far as I’m aware the tours are done for this winter but could be wrong. I believe Titan will take over these duties from next winter due to TUI’s reduced 757 fleet.

Yes all vip work now done. Contract has come to an end. Titan, Tag aviation and a few others now operating them.

[LiamNCL]

Fleet update

Its intresting to see the comments by Kenton Jarvis about incoming aircraft.
Jethro's website has been updated today and shows the following

G-FDZG - Return to Lessor MAR 2020 (TBC)
G-OOBC - Returned to Lessor 9th December (to be leased back for 6 month)
G-OOBD - Return to Lessor Soon (to be leased back for 6 month)
G-OOBE - Return to Lessor APR 2020
G-OOBF - Return to Lessor FEB 2020

+ G-FDZE & G-CPEU which left after S19 where are these extra aircraft coming from as the MAX will not fly for Summer ?

[JonnyH]

Originally Posted by LiamNCL

Its intresting to see the comments by Kenton Jarvis about incoming aircraft.
Jethro's website has been updated today and shows the following

G-FDZG - Return to Lessor MAR 2020 (TBC)
G-OOBC - Returned to Lessor 9th December (to be leased back for 6 month)
G-OOBD - Return to Lessor Soon (to be leased back for 6 month)
G-OOBE - Return to Lessor APR 2020
G-OOBF - Return to Lessor FEB 2020

+ G-FDZE & G-CPEU which left after S19 where are these extra aircraft coming from as the MAX will not fly for Summer ?

I would imagine they’d use Sunwing and Titan again with the possibility of Olympus too (if SX-ABQ ever gets repaired). You’re probably looking at other operators picking up ex TCX A321s and offering them for lease prior to S20 too.

[LiamNCL]

Originally Posted by JonnyH

I would imagine they’d use Sunwing and Titan again with the possibility of Olympus too (if SX-ABQ ever gets repaired). You’re probably looking at other operators picking up ex TCX A321s and offering them for lease prior to S20 too.

There will be leases needed for sure but they must be bringing aircraft in from somewhere surely as they have recruited TCX flight deck crew with them training on the 737 i was just curious as to where these will come from or if aircraft are intended to move to the UK from elsewhere in the TUI group.

[ROC10]

Originally Posted by LiamNCL

There will be leases needed for sure but they must be bringing aircraft in from somewhere surely as they have recruited TCX flight deck crew with them training on the 737 i was just curious as to where these will come from or if aircraft are intended to move to the UK from elsewhere in the TUI group.

Well I’d imagine they’re still very much hoping (and perhaps optimistically expecting) the MAX to be in service by at least the peak summer, however, they will of course be well aware this is far from certain and so will need to make contingency plans. The collapse of TCX has basically forced them to expand to fill some of the gap, however this is arguably the year in which they are least able to do so. If the MAX is active they could be fine as they will still have some of the older 800s plus some 757s, but of course if it is not, it’s hard to see how they won’t be in some sort of trouble.

Interesting sting to see the updates on Jethros. The 4 newest 757s seem to be the first to leave whilst TUI will retain the older ones, also suggests only two will be “leased back” presumably to cover the winter season whilst the 738s are in Canada and the MAX is still not in service. All of the recently-withdrawn 757s have/will become cargo machines in China. The EoL checks are being done in China so perhaps these will end up with a similar fate. The likes of G-OOBF is only 15 years old so it does seem rather sad for it to go to cargo but I guess very few airlines are looking for 757s anymore.

[SWBKCB]

it’s hard to see how they won’t be in some sort of trouble.

I'm sure they will be using all their years of experience of operating a major airline to come up with some alternatives. They've had a lot more time to plan than the original MAX grounding, and they coped then.

[ROC10]

Originally Posted by SWBKCB

I'm sure they will be using all their years of experience of operating a major airline to come up with some alternatives. They've had a lot more time to plan than the original MAX grounding, and they coped then.

I don’t doubt that they’re working hard on it but I still think they will struggle to deliver their current S20 programme without the MAX. They will have several fewer 757s than this year (provided they leave before summer) and fewer 738s too. They’ve had to bring in ACMI leased aircraft for several flights over the last week and this is winter (granted they are down 10 x 738 but S20 will require an awful lot more than that). I may be wrong but without the MAX, I’d expect consolidations and significant reshuffling. Of course they will be able to secure more leased aircraft but this is of course costly and often doesn’t go down well with passengers. The airlines are unfamiliar which is just about fine when things go to plan, however when things go wrong (tends to happen disproportionately more to the leased aircraft) they often go very wrong and would be difficult (not impossible but difficult) for TUI to recover.

[LiamNCL]

Enter Air and AirExplore already been filling in last few days , Smartlynx and Avion who operated a vast amount of aircraft for TCX will be available for lease this summer too but i cannot see the MAX flying until late summer at the earliest.

[irishlad06]

There is a rumour that they are getting 10-12 Peagus 800’s as they r replacing them with neo’s

[Bearpit]

United have pulled the MAX from their schedules until 4th June now, so they're obviously taking a pessimistic view on when the aircraft will return. There must be a lot of airlines head-scratching over Christmas as to how to cover flights. Looking at other threads, it looks like Ryanair are making deeper cuts already. Interesting to see what TUI have up their sleeves, given the peak holiday booking period is just about to start.

[rog747]

Some good points raised above -
TUI CEO mentioned that if the MAX is not back by the end of APR (We know it will not be) then their financial contingency allows to remove the MAX from their S20 program.

It is extremely hard to try to introduce, or re-introduce a new, or an amended type that will require intense pilot training/SIM time, and the various Crew and Ops manuals to be rewritten) in the midst of a summer Charter flight series as big as TUI's.

I think TUI now have pretty much taken as read that the MAX will be out of the their Summer 2020 flying program - My Tuppence.

[rog747]

Originally Posted by Bearpit

United have pulled the MAX from their schedules until 4th June now, so they're obviously taking a pessimistic view on when the aircraft will return. There must be a lot of airlines head-scratching over Christmas as to how to cover flights. Looking at other threads, it looks like Ryanair are making deeper cuts already. Interesting to see what TUI have up their sleeves, given the peak holiday booking period is just about to start.

Yes indeed, and that United Airlines decision concurs that it is likely improbable that TUI could slip the MAX back into the summer program if any approval of the MAX was in mid-summer.

FYI
You mention ''Peak time is just about to start'' - Yes I agree we have a busy Ski Flight season starting but that flying is at weekends only.
Xmas peak is only a couple of weeks really.
During the week popular winter destinations like Canaries, Egypt, Banjul, and Cape Verde see most of the flying. (Longer routes means the aircraft often will only do one rotation a day, compared to 2 or 3 in the Summer)

The aircraft as you know, are not as busy in the winter historically, and many go off for winter leases (quite normal) to other airlines, so the Peak flying period is MAY-SEPT, with JUL/AUG seeing the most usage.
This type of flying program has always seen the difficulty for Holiday airlines making good use year round of their fleets, and try to make money.

[Fly757X]

Originally Posted by rog747

Yes indeed, and that United Airlines decision concurs that it is likely improbable that TUI could slip the MAX back into the summer program if any approval of the MAX was in mid-summer.

FYI
You mention ''Peak time is just about to start'' - Yes I agree we have a busy Ski Flight season starting but that flying is at weekends only.
Xmas peak is only a couple of weeks really.
During the week popular winter destinations like Canaries, Egypt, Banjul, and Cape Verde see most of the flying. (Longer routes means the aircraft often will only do one rotation a day, compared to 2 or 3 in the Summer)

The aircraft as you know, are not as busy in the winter historically, and many go off for winter leases (quite normal) to other airlines, so the Peak flying period is MAY-SEPT, with JUL/AUG seeing the most usage.
This type of flying program has always seen the difficulty for Holiday airlines making good use year round of their fleets, and try to make money.

I think he was referring to when Holidays are booked, rather than when the schedule is the busiest.

Merry Christmas!

[rog747]

Ah OK - so you mean the peak ''booking'' time. Yes Tour operators want their summer bookings made and deposits paid as early as possible of course.

Back in the early days when the summer holiday brochures were released there would be queues around the block with holidaymakers trying to get the first and best pickings when they went on sale - usually after the New Year. (showing my age now lol)

Happy Xmas too !!!

[paully]

Originally Posted by rog747

Ah OK - so you mean the peak ''booking'' time. Yes Tour operators want their summer bookings made and deposits paid as early as possible of course.

Back in the early days when the summer holiday brochures were released there would be queues around the block with holidaymakers trying to get the first and best pickings when they went on sale - usually after the New Year. (showing my age now lol)

Happy Xmas too !!!

Yes I remember those days as well...the mad dash to get the `Free Child` places Different times but they were fun

[ChilliP]

G-FDZF on its way to Dubai from Cardiff, assume its going to China for EOL checks?
No mention of this on Jethros, but ZG is planned for EOL in March 20.

[DanAir89]

Originally Posted by ChilliP

G-FDZF on its way to Dubai from Cardiff, assume its going to China for EOL checks?
No mention of this on Jethros, but ZG is planned for EOL in March 20.

another 2 leaving and no sign of anything else joining!!!

been watching this thread which is very interesting, loads of planned expansion, grounded Max’s, 737/757’s aircraft leaving the fleet etc

10-12 ex Pegasus 737’s were mentioned above - would this solve the cunundrum?

always used to like going on holiday with Thomson/tui as the flights were on G regs, on time and very reliable .hope they don’t go down the Avion Express et al route as TC did which in my view would spoil their quality brand.