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Flybe-9

Old 20th Oct 2020, 19:45
  #4401 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
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[QUOTE=RogueOne;10908273]
Originally Posted by Gurnard View Post

Seems like you might.

..and it's the perfect time to "plan" to start an airline. Clean slate, no debt, competitors struggling, domestic slots available everywhere as capacity reduced, potential to negotiate very favourable rates for handling, fuel, aircraft leasing, MRO support, willing, ready and trained crews. It'll take many many months to get all the pieces in place.

When the conditions to actually launch and this horrible pandemic are ending and behind us, Flybe Mk2 launches smaller, more focussed, with profitable routes at profitable bases... legacy constraints no longer holding it back.
I have some magic beans you might be interested in.

No new carrier starts off profitable from day one. Going in against Loganair on say MAN-xyz, the incumbent will have no choice but to fight tooth and nail for survival, hence no easy path to profitability. The notion that there's a large enough niche for a new flybe flying a large fleet of clapped out DHDs is just nonsense. Or maybe they'll order a new fleet of ATR72s with a side order of shiney A220s? They wil need to be very well capitalised to survive a couple of years of massive losses as a newbie flying on the brand of a famously bankrupt and frankly unloved carrier. The major problem of being unable to expand into the easyJet / Ryanair space and being up against stronger local brands like Loganair, Blue Islands and Aurigny remains. Any zombie Flybe had no USP to market.
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Old 20th Oct 2020, 20:03
  #4402 (permalink)  
 
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Flybe Mk II will have massive advantages.

They will not have just dragged themselves through the worst crisis in aviation history with all the massive losses
They will have massive amounts of pilots and crew keen to get back in the air
They will have airports desperate to see some flights moving and be able to plan their routes with historic but accurate route data
There will be no shortage of aircraft and maintenance facilities to be had at favourable rates
They can choose when to launch, ie when a comeback looks sustainable

I hope to see them in the sky in 18 months or so.
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Old 20th Oct 2020, 20:13
  #4403 (permalink)  
 
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This thread is heading for Jet Blast! Some real pie in the sky thinking on here.
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Old 20th Oct 2020, 20:42
  #4404 (permalink)  
 
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There will be no Jets or desire to become Ryanair or easyJet - thats where it went to rats last time with the Jets.
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Old 20th Oct 2020, 20:42
  #4405 (permalink)  
 
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[QUOTE=Skipness One Foxtrot;10908373]
Originally Posted by RogueOne View Post
I have some magic beans you might be interested in.

No new carrier starts off profitable from day one. Going in against Loganair on say MAN-xyz, the incumbent will have no choice but to fight tooth and nail for survival, hence no easy path to profitability. The notion that there's a large enough niche for a new flybe flying a large fleet of clapped out DHDs is just nonsense. Or maybe they'll order a new fleet of ATR72s with a side order of shiney A220s? They wil need to be very well capitalised to survive a couple of years of massive losses as a newbie flying on the brand of a famously bankrupt and frankly unloved carrier. The major problem of being unable to expand into the easyJet / Ryanair space and being up against stronger local brands like Loganair, Blue Islands and Aurigny remains. Any zombie Flybe had no USP to market.
Just for the record #4378 has become distorted. I have been credited with someone else's post. Skipness, I'm in agreement with you; it's someone else who isn't!
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Old 20th Oct 2020, 21:00
  #4406 (permalink)  
 
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Only two words to remember..."hedge fund".
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Old 20th Oct 2020, 22:09
  #4407 (permalink)  
 
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Flybe Mk II will have massive advantages.

They will not have just dragged themselves through the worst crisis in aviation history with all the massive losses
They will have massive amounts of pilots and crew keen to get back in the air
They will have airports desperate to see some flights moving and be able to plan their routes with historic but accurate route data
There will be no shortage of aircraft and maintenance facilities to be had at favourable rates
They can choose when to launch, ie when a comeback looks sustainable

I hope to see them in the sky in 18 months or so.
I could pick on several posts here, but...

They have a brand which was so toxic after the hand baggage fiasco that they were having to plan a full re-brand before they went bust.
The market is shot to pieces with several former cash-cows like BHX-EDI suffering badly from passengers driving and not flying.
Of the routes that might still work, many have Loganair, Blue Islands, Eastern or easyJet parked on them.
Flybe ran out of cash in January 2020, long before Coronavirus was an everyday word in our language, then staggered on until March.
They lost an incredible £200m in 2019.

It was a basketcase, remains a basketcase, and will be a bottomless money-pit for the investors behind it. If it gets airborne after due CAA scrutiny, it will be a triumph of vanity over reality.

Can anyone actually think of a bankrupt airline relaunch which has gone well? I'm struggling to come up with one.

I'm beginning to wonder if the quoted Lucien Farrell of Cyrus and the dreamer Jason Unsworth of Atmosphere International are somehow related.
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Old 20th Oct 2020, 23:56
  #4408 (permalink)  
 
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You can have all the cheap aircraft you want but you still have to fuel and maintain them. Staff, navigation and ground expenses are still there as are a degree of overhead. Even more fundamentally, most of the (I assume) profitable routes have already been backfilled by competitors. Throw in continued Covid-related tomfoolery and you have a recipe for unmitigated disaster. This outfit has not got a cat in hells chance of making it in my opinion.
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Old 21st Oct 2020, 00:59
  #4409 (permalink)  
 
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Jezzzzzz this year has been so bad for aviation and this is one piece of good news . Letís try and be positive and see what happens
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Old 21st Oct 2020, 05:07
  #4410 (permalink)  
 
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And a base would be at ???
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Old 21st Oct 2020, 06:21
  #4411 (permalink)  
 
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Unless the govt are going to support them
ollie135 is online now  
Old 21st Oct 2020, 07:24
  #4412 (permalink)  
 
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They weren't a cheap ticket and they still were losing money. This time around they'd be up against the LCC's willing to fly domestics against them because they have aircraft and crew sat around doing little. There are relatively few airports where you can't operate a lightly loaded 737/320 and the ones that are too small are already served by the likes of Logan and Stobart. The likes of easy already operate profitably on routes like LGW-JER BRS-IOM BFS-GLA. Absolutely nothing stopping them operating domestics out of CWL EXT BOH LBA NCL MAN BHX SOU NQY NWI. As long as they break even they may as well use their spare capacity to feed into their larger hubs like LGW LTN BRS MAN to facilitate onward to travel to the huge orange European network. Ditto Ryanair via STN DUB.

Outside of our aviation bubble is Flybe that strong a brand? It was Jersey European until well into this century. Most news headlines about FlyBe involve either falling share prices, doubts about its future and then its collapse. It was always a confused brand, was I supposed to be low cost? U.K. Regional businessman's commute? Family holiday to Malaga? As a brand it seemed to have a lot less pedigree and affection than Monarch and I don't see anybody putting much of a value on that brand.

at the end of the day this is a vulture fund. Not a long term investor looking to build a viable airline business. Don't get your hopes up.
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Old 21st Oct 2020, 07:29
  #4413 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by LTNman View Post
And a base would be at ???
And with one voice the deluded supporters of the scheme cried, "Exeter!" Why, we have been told that the aircraft are already painted. What could possibly go wrong next time round?
Gurnard is offline  
Old 21st Oct 2020, 07:37
  #4414 (permalink)  
 
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This is getting as circular as the old "Flybe are going bust!", "No they aren't!!" discussions.
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Old 21st Oct 2020, 07:48
  #4415 (permalink)  
 
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[QUOTE=Skipness One Foxtrot;10908373]
Originally Posted by RogueOne View Post
I have some magic beans you might be interested in.

No new carrier starts off profitable from day one. Going in against Loganair on say MAN-xyz, the incumbent will have no choice but to fight tooth and nail for survival, hence no easy path to profitability. The notion that there's a large enough niche for a new flybe flying a large fleet of clapped out DHDs is just nonsense. Or maybe they'll order a new fleet of ATR72s with a side order of shiney A220s? They wil need to be very well capitalised to survive a couple of years of massive losses as a newbie flying on the brand of a famously bankrupt and frankly unloved carrier. The major problem of being unable to expand into the easyJet / Ryanair space and being up against stronger local brands like Loganair, Blue Islands and Aurigny remains. Any zombie Flybe had no USP to market.
Firstly lets get rid of one lie. The Dash 8's are not 'clapped out' they are perfectly decent aircraft, which just need a good interior refit. (I should know I worked on them for several years)No new airline is going to buy brand new aircraft, especially A220s so why bother putting such a stupid idea out there? What I would also like to know, if you seem to think Flybe is so terrible, and won't make any money why do you keep coming back here to remind us? Say your peace and leave.
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Old 21st Oct 2020, 07:49
  #4416 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ollie135 View Post
Unless the govt are going to support them
I think we all know the answer to that ...
DaveReidUK is online now  
Old 21st Oct 2020, 07:53
  #4417 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ajamieson View Post
I stopped reading at this point. Many commendable things about Flybe (its people, for one) but it was not a good brand even before it collapsed. It was weeks away from a major rebrand as a last-ditch effort to stay alive. Even if these missing routes were remotely viable in the forseeable future, there must be half a dozen dead airline brands (and quite a few living ones) that stand a better chance of survival.
Firstly, I think you should read the entire thing, it's stupid to just read the first sentence and then ignore everything else! It wasn't a last ditched effort, we all know what Virgin is like, they always rebrand everything they buy out because they think the Virgin brand adds value, they wasted too much time on this rebranding idea, rather than coming in and shaking things up quicker and a lot harder. Something Stobart admitted after they went bust. From what i've seen on social media most people are generally happy that Flybe is coming back, despite the bad press with going bust, everyone knows what Flybe is and what it does aka regional/domestic flying. We have to at least give it a chance, it might fail yes, but there also a very good chance it could survive.
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Old 21st Oct 2020, 08:00
  #4418 (permalink)  
 
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[QUOTE=Gurnard;10908133]
Originally Posted by airsouthwest View Post
Flybe is a good brand, it's not a failed brand.

You can't be serious. Flybe went out of business leaving hundreds of people stranded and having to make their own way home. Those let down like that will not have happy memories but will remember Flybe not as a good but a failed brand.

Whether or not the other airlines which have responded to Flybe's collapse by taking on routes are "good" or not, they have invested to replenish the market. They do not deserve a reincarnated Flybe to haunt them. I have no axe to grind and wish all former employees of the airline well, but this is hardly an opportune time to start an airline. Other posts have been realistic and sounded a note of caution. Let's not get carried away into flights of fantasy.
Really, the same could be said for Pan Am but people still have fond memories of it despite Lockerbie and it going bust.

Except it's not starting now it's starting in 2021, we don't know what the situation will be like by then do we? It is the perfect time to start one even Simon Calder has said so. In my view most of the negative posts are either spotters who have no idea about the business, or Flybe haters who just want to see it fail and be gone. I've said it before and ill say it again, yes it might fail, but on the other hand with lower aircraft leasing costs, a well controlled business it could actually do better than people expect. We all know it won't ever be the same large airline it was that is gone for good, but I certainly welcome a bit of competition.
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Old 21st Oct 2020, 08:08
  #4419 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Albert Hall View Post


Can anyone actually think of a bankrupt airline relaunch which has gone well? I'm struggling to come up with one.
I can think of one. British Air Ferries went into administration in 1988 with debts of over £20 million and emerged a year later with new owners as the first British airline to do so. By 1990 BAF was recording a profit of over £1 million per year and continued profitably throughout much of the 1990s finally collapsing in 2001 in the aftermath of 9/11 as British World Airways.
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Old 21st Oct 2020, 08:27
  #4420 (permalink)  
 
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Flybe & possible insanity with definition...

Insanity = Doing (saying) the same thing,over & over again,but expecting different results.

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