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Thomas Cook-2

Old 20th Sep 2019, 08:43
  #741 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Doc Q View Post
The goverment will step in if it comes to worse case , It will cost them far more in the rescue than it would cost to provide the small amount needed to keep TC solvent , Itís a no brainer
Hi Doc just looking at your postings from the past 2018 on Flybe

Blip???,Goverment aid ?, What planet are you on ??

You sound like a Politician
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Old 20th Sep 2019, 08:49
  #742 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by AirportPlanner1 View Post
Should no legitimate deal come forward TC will be kept afloat by the Government until the end of October. The Germans will be similarly happy with such an arrangement, after all they kept Air Berlin going until the end of the season.

It may may not be right or fair but this is a desperate rogue Government who wonít want the headlines and job losses on their hands during Conference season. Questions will be asked later. It may not be any more costly than organising an armada of repatriation flights.
Possible. However, the government are the majority shareholder in RBS, who are in turn the majority lender, along with Lloyds for TCX. Clearly Iím not as knowledgeable as some regarding this but surely the government would have significant influence with RBS who seem to be one of the main issues within this saga.
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Old 20th Sep 2019, 08:56
  #743 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by JonnyH View Post


Possible. However, the government are the majority shareholder in RBS, who are in turn the majority lender, along with Lloyds for TCX. Clearly Iím not as knowledgeable as some regarding this but surely the government would have significant influence with RBS who seem to be one of the main issues within this saga.
Just to nip this point in the bud. The only government involvement here will be through the CAA.

There will be no government bail-out of the company, it isnít allowed under EU state aid rules.
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Old 20th Sep 2019, 09:05
  #744 (permalink)  
 
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The government saved RBS amongst other banks to sure up the economy and stop the run on banks during the financial crisis. Without government intervention (across the world) in 2008 the whole system could have collapsed.

TCX is a bit different, potential big job losses but nothing we havenít seen before (monarch, flybe, XL, debenhams, woolworths (insert half the high street from the 80s) I could go on.
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Old 20th Sep 2019, 09:06
  #745 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Doc Q View Post
TC have stated according to sky news just now itís business as normal , So i guess it is , cannot see them reassuring everyone if they really are going under

They obviously know the cash is coming .
Whilst I do hope that a solution can be found for Thomas Cook, you need to read between the lines a bit whenever statements like that are made and news reports from reputable sources in particular are reporting something completely different.

They will clearly say all is well for two reasons: firstly to encourage people to continue to book with confidence (as a collapse in bookings will potentially exacerbate the problem and Thomas Cook no doubt need forward bookings to convince lenders to cough up) and secondly to discourage those with holidays already booked not to seek cancellations (as it will impact their projected cash flow from bookings already made that are yet to be paid off). As others have said, Monarch were saying the same things 2 years ago. I also don't believe some of the arrangements going on such as filing for slots is being done for fun.

It doesn't look good, however I'm keeping my fingers crossed. I feel for all the staff across the entire group who are completely blameless and are no doubt worried sick.
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Old 20th Sep 2019, 09:09
  #746 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by DooblerChina View Post
The government saved RBS amongst other banks to sure up the economy and stop the run on banks during the financial crisis. Without government intervention (across the world) in 2008 the whole system could have collapsed.
As well as the politically explosive scenario of ordinary people losing savings, especially those with more money tucked away than the FCA's compensation scheme would cover at the time. I won't go into my thoughts about what the government should have done with one or two banks at the time as this isn't the thread.
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Old 20th Sep 2019, 09:11
  #747 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by AirportPlanner1 View Post
Should no legitimate deal come forward TC will be kept afloat by the Government until the end of October. The Germans will be similarly happy with such an arrangement, after all they kept Air Berlin going until the end of the season.

It may may not be right or fair but this is a desperate rogue Government who wonít want the headlines and job losses on their hands during Conference season. Questions will be asked later. It may not be any more costly than organising an armada of repatriation flights.
The Germans have different insolvency rules than the UK, this can easily lead to different outcomes for different subsidiaries if the overall group goes into administration. TC UK are legally obliged to keep the CAA informed of their financial situation as part of their ATOL license. However, there is not currently a good way to keep TCX flying if it ends up in administration. This was highlighted by the review HMG commissioned after the collapse of Monarch. It actually would have been cheeper to keep some of the Monarch aircraft flying to undertake the repatriation flights, but the current system generally leads to a suspension of the airlines OL and AOC once the administrators take over. Administrators can also be liable to the creditors if they continue operations when the know the best outcome is liquidation.

I have no idea if TC will survive the next 2-weeks, for their employees and many of their customers I sincerely hope so. However, as long as TC think that there is a remote chance of getting past 01 October they will not say they are going to fail, as this would ensure failure. One of the upsides of ATOL licensing is that the process should be quite good at minimising the risk that a holiday company will fold during the license period. However, it has probably driven under a few companies that may have been able to be saved. The CAA will, naturally, be more risk averse then many investors so they will be somewhat more likely to pull the plug.
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Old 20th Sep 2019, 09:13
  #748 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ETOPS View Post
Iíve now got some ďskinĒ in this game...
Currently on holiday with a return TCX flight to MAN this Sunday. Having been in the same position with Monarch it can cause some worries - not the first idea when trying to relax. Even more so when I actually booked with TUI to avoid flying with ThomasCook. Was pretty surprised to see the flight number when the booking confirmation came through.
Will be keeping a close eye on the news over the weekend.
I would keep in contact with your TUI rep as they have the obligation to correct things if TXC folds, provided you are under a TUI ATOL policy and not a TC one. I don't know what options TUI has going back to your base, but they would be obligated to get you back at the end of your holiday.
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Old 20th Sep 2019, 09:16
  #749 (permalink)  
 
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Banks, as unfortunate as it may be, are more important than package tour operators. There will be no rescue except of customers.

Is unfortunate that this may be harder to plan than before. The insolvency industry has wised up to these types of businesses and the lenders won't let it carry on to the end of the month if they don't want it to.

But fingers crossed.
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Old 20th Sep 2019, 09:23
  #750 (permalink)  
 
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Pholling, sorry to pick on you. Nothing personal, I promise!

Even if TC would know at this very minute that they will no be operating on the 1st of October. They will still continue the mantra of business as normal. As mentioned previously, Monarch was sending out optimistic messages until we got the email informing us that the company was placed in administration. Even though 24 hours earlier the price of each flight was increased by £100 to discourage the public from booking flights. When I saw this price increase it was pretty clear that the company was going under, yet we still got the business as normal emails. The company would not have increased the prices if they thought that 5ere was a remote chance we would still be flying 25 hours later.
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Old 20th Sep 2019, 09:30
  #751 (permalink)  
 
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I hate to be a Cassandra, DocQ, but Twiglet is correct. I had a very personal interest when both British Island and DanAir went down and both events occurred without any warning. Companies put on a brave face right up to closing the doors for obvious commercial reasons. I assume you have skin in the game as you are posting on a professional pilpts' forum. If this is the case, at least there's a pilot shortage.
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Old 20th Sep 2019, 09:53
  #752 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Doc Q View Post



Once the Chinese cash arrives itís game on , They only need 200 million to get through this which is not a huge amount.

not a large amount I take it your sending the cheque over 1st class today
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Old 20th Sep 2019, 10:08
  #753 (permalink)  
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I feel for the TC employees....But if this does happen it is a f*****g negative outcome for all European airline employees.
In the meantime corporate executives making a killing during their tenure at great companies irrespective of performance.
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Old 20th Sep 2019, 10:23
  #754 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by diffident View Post


Just to nip this point in the bud. The only government involvement here will be through the CAA.

There will be no government bail-out of the company, it isnít allowed under EU state aid rules.
No Bail out !!
Obviously you have not been to France ! Look at Corsica ferries bail out !! I am afraid you are quoting UK version of EU rules!
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Old 20th Sep 2019, 10:28
  #755 (permalink)  
VJW
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Originally Posted by GotTheTshirt View Post
No Bail out !!
Obviously you have not been to France ! Look at Corsica ferries bail out !! I am afraid you are quoting UK version of EU rules!
Indeed- AlItalia never had any help right?
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Old 20th Sep 2019, 10:30
  #756 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by VJW View Post


Indeed- AlItalia never had any help right?
Indeed - or the bank bail out
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Old 20th Sep 2019, 10:41
  #757 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by GotTheTshirt View Post
No Bail out !!
Obviously you have not been to France ! Look at Corsica ferries bail out !! I am afraid you are quoting UK version of EU rules!
You are right in a way that France and Italy are often applying their version of the rules, but ferries are bad example - large amount of ferry routes are subsidised on a permanent basis all over the Europe as necessary element of public infrastructure. Flights to Spanish and Greek resorts do not qualify for this.
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Old 20th Sep 2019, 10:42
  #758 (permalink)  
 
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On R4 this morning it was suggested that it would cost the CAA £600 million to repatriate everyone. No idea whether that is accurate, or a wild guess.
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Old 20th Sep 2019, 11:13
  #759 (permalink)  
 
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As a TCX employee who went through this the last 2 years in a row with Monarch and Primera, I only wish I could share the same blind optimism as DocQ. Really do hope things can be sorted, but unfortunately not holding my breath
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Old 20th Sep 2019, 11:51
  #760 (permalink)  
 
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On R4 this morning it was suggested that it would cost the CAA £600 million to repatriate everyone. No idea whether that is accurate, or a wild guess.
Seems a bit overkill. the whole Monarch operation was £60m for 110k pax
TCX have potentially 180k, so for flight only, £100m would make sense.
The other £500m could be due to people who have booked holidays and getting refunds through ATOL, but why the government has to pay this, when the ATOL system is seperate, i do not know
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