MANCHESTER 1
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Today is 23 million passenger day in last 12 months according to the Evening News and the Airport. Also gives the usual targets for long-haul but this Bloomberg interview says they are after 25 more long-haul routes which has the usual suspects plus the likes of Johannesburg, Cape Town, Dallas and Guangzhou. That interview also says they anticipate mid-30s million passengers by the late 2020s
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financial times
Article in today's Financial times interesting read...sorry can't post the link.
5% growth for man, however lagging behind both GLA and EDI with 13.7 and 9.1 % growth. Still the future is looking good at Manchester. Would be nice to see some of the routes talked about starting, filling some missing holes in the Man network.
Article in today's Financial times interesting read...sorry can't post the link.
5% growth for man, however lagging behind both GLA and EDI with 13.7 and 9.1 % growth. Still the future is looking good at Manchester. Would be nice to see some of the routes talked about starting, filling some missing holes in the Man network.
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Why is MAN lagging behind GLA and EDI? Have they both had months where an extra 10 million passengers go through them so overtaking MAN in 3rd place or do you mean that due to their lower passenger numbers, a similar increase in actual passenger numbers sees a greater percentage rise for them?
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Saudia increasing to 5 weekly from Sept 7th 2016. New flight on Wednesdays and confirmed via Saudia website.
"new flight operates on Wednesdays with Boeing 787"
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Thanks for posting the links Ringwayman.
Bloomberg is becoming quite a useful outlet for MAN news and articles. More so than some of our daily broadsheets although the FT is ok.
As mentioned, it includes this quote:
O’Toole said. “We’ll reach 25 million passengers in the short term, and we think the airport has the potential to get into the mid 30 millions by the late 2020s or early 2030s.”
No doubt someone can calculate the overall compound rate of growth that an extra 12m pax over say 15 years implies. It is actually pretty cautious in terms of average annual growth, but probably rightly so given the need to factor in the possibilities of financial crisis, impact of wars, terrorism etc. which can so badly affect expansion as we saw for several years from 2007.
However, based on what has already been announced for 2016, it's not totally unrealistic to see 25m pax being achieved next year, (subject to the unpredictable situations referred to), which would be at least twice the growth rate required to hit 35m in the time frame given.
I wonder also whether MAN has tried to factor in the consequences if R3 at LHR were opened in that period, if indeed it believes it would have a material effect on MAN's potential growth.
Bloomberg is becoming quite a useful outlet for MAN news and articles. More so than some of our daily broadsheets although the FT is ok.
As mentioned, it includes this quote:
O’Toole said. “We’ll reach 25 million passengers in the short term, and we think the airport has the potential to get into the mid 30 millions by the late 2020s or early 2030s.”
No doubt someone can calculate the overall compound rate of growth that an extra 12m pax over say 15 years implies. It is actually pretty cautious in terms of average annual growth, but probably rightly so given the need to factor in the possibilities of financial crisis, impact of wars, terrorism etc. which can so badly affect expansion as we saw for several years from 2007.
However, based on what has already been announced for 2016, it's not totally unrealistic to see 25m pax being achieved next year, (subject to the unpredictable situations referred to), which would be at least twice the growth rate required to hit 35m in the time frame given.
I wonder also whether MAN has tried to factor in the consequences if R3 at LHR were opened in that period, if indeed it believes it would have a material effect on MAN's potential growth.
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and Airlineroute.net adds
Quote:
"new flight operates on Wednesdays with Boeing 787"
Quote:
"new flight operates on Wednesdays with Boeing 787"
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Growth at MAN
Here are the most recent CAA stats:
http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/80/airport...Statistics.pdf
http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/80/airport...Statistics.pdf
Growth in Sept for all Airports was 5.4% whereas MAN had 5.5%
Growth in Oct for all Airports was 6.6% whereas MAN had 4%. Note that some airports are missing from the Oct data.
This suggests that MAN is basically ticking along, growing at the background rate (for the last two months) and not faster than that. Some might say that that is slightly disappointing.
Rolling year, background growth (average of all airports) is at 5.4% (taken from fuller Sept stats) whereas MAN is at 5.6%. So MAN is growing slightly quicker than aviation in general. MAG's other main airport down in London has grown by 15.5% over the same period and Gatwick is up 5.8% for comparison.
http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/80/airport...Statistics.pdf
http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/80/airport...Statistics.pdf
Growth in Sept for all Airports was 5.4% whereas MAN had 5.5%
Growth in Oct for all Airports was 6.6% whereas MAN had 4%. Note that some airports are missing from the Oct data.
This suggests that MAN is basically ticking along, growing at the background rate (for the last two months) and not faster than that. Some might say that that is slightly disappointing.
Rolling year, background growth (average of all airports) is at 5.4% (taken from fuller Sept stats) whereas MAN is at 5.6%. So MAN is growing slightly quicker than aviation in general. MAG's other main airport down in London has grown by 15.5% over the same period and Gatwick is up 5.8% for comparison.
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To me, it doesn't matter is another airport is growing percentage point faster than MAN.
What matters is the core growth, as we know 10% growth on a figure of 1000 is better than a 12% growth on a figure of 100. The other airport may be growing faster percentage wise, but, the this airport will have the better actual growth. It's nothing but a PR headline grabbing piece to claim you are 'fastest growing'.
What's important for MAN, is that they have just surpassed the 23m rolling year point. There is more than enough potential to get to 25m next year, and, we are not even out of route announcing season, with Air China, Pegasus, Monarch and other airlines waiting in the wings to add new routes. Just yesterday we had yet another new route and yet another increase on a long haul route. Even though it's November, the time is still young for 2016 routes.
What matters is the core growth, as we know 10% growth on a figure of 1000 is better than a 12% growth on a figure of 100. The other airport may be growing faster percentage wise, but, the this airport will have the better actual growth. It's nothing but a PR headline grabbing piece to claim you are 'fastest growing'.
What's important for MAN, is that they have just surpassed the 23m rolling year point. There is more than enough potential to get to 25m next year, and, we are not even out of route announcing season, with Air China, Pegasus, Monarch and other airlines waiting in the wings to add new routes. Just yesterday we had yet another new route and yet another increase on a long haul route. Even though it's November, the time is still young for 2016 routes.
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The 23m pax in 12 months must be Terminal pax, and I think we needed an extra 67,000 pax in November to reach that total.
Nice touch by MAN to select someone from Wakefield to be the lucky passenger on an easyjet flight. I doubt it's an exact science so always interesting to see which airline is involved and where the winner comes from.
Nice touch by MAN to select someone from Wakefield to be the lucky passenger on an easyjet flight. I doubt it's an exact science so always interesting to see which airline is involved and where the winner comes from.
Gavin
If you look at CAA figures schedule and charter both up but domestic down which corrolates exactly with the loss of Virgin and the loss of a BA flight on LHR plus losing some on ABZ as well and should factor out
in April next year
Ian
If you look at CAA figures schedule and charter both up but domestic down which corrolates exactly with the loss of Virgin and the loss of a BA flight on LHR plus losing some on ABZ as well and should factor out
in April next year
Ian
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Here's that link (hopefully) to that FT article. It may cut out now as it requires registration.
Unfortunately the Analyst from the Centre for Aviation was rather less upbeat with his comments about MAN, unless the FT only selected certain negative extracts to put balance to the article. As well as the lower percentage growth figures, he mentions the lack of First Class pax and makes this statement which may or may not be valid, or only partially true. It's a perception or situation that MAN will be keen to change.
"He said many regional airports, such as Newcastle, would rather support connecting routes to Amsterdam and Heathrow rather than long haul from Manchester".
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/13bfe106-8...6bf20cc2b.html
Oh, and apparently Davies forecast MAN would be 26m pax in 2020. It would be rather splendid if it could reach that figure in 2017. Mind you, he wasn't too accurate about LGW either.
Unfortunately the Analyst from the Centre for Aviation was rather less upbeat with his comments about MAN, unless the FT only selected certain negative extracts to put balance to the article. As well as the lower percentage growth figures, he mentions the lack of First Class pax and makes this statement which may or may not be valid, or only partially true. It's a perception or situation that MAN will be keen to change.
"He said many regional airports, such as Newcastle, would rather support connecting routes to Amsterdam and Heathrow rather than long haul from Manchester".
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/13bfe106-8...6bf20cc2b.html
Oh, and apparently Davies forecast MAN would be 26m pax in 2020. It would be rather splendid if it could reach that figure in 2017. Mind you, he wasn't too accurate about LGW either.
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"He said many regional airports, such as Newcastle, would rather support connecting routes to Amsterdam and Heathrow rather than long haul from Manchester".
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CX.
This article in Flight Global talks about the expanding CX fleet and future growth. MAN isn't mentioned specifically (Amsterdam and Milan are).
Any indication yet as to whether we might see that hoped for upgrade to a daily service and when?
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/ar...-777xs-419290/
This article in Flight Global talks about the expanding CX fleet and future growth. MAN isn't mentioned specifically (Amsterdam and Milan are).
Any indication yet as to whether we might see that hoped for upgrade to a daily service and when?
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/ar...-777xs-419290/
Last edited by MANFOD; 23rd Nov 2015 at 11:15.
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The comment that made me chuckle was:
'First class demand can only be proven when BA return'.
Seems some people still continue to think BA are the be all and end all to prove an airports status when it comes to long haul.
Let's just brush under the carpet the fact that 4 carriers do currently offer a first class cabin from Manchester.........
'First class demand can only be proven when BA return'.
Seems some people still continue to think BA are the be all and end all to prove an airports status when it comes to long haul.
Let's just brush under the carpet the fact that 4 carriers do currently offer a first class cabin from Manchester.........
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The comment that made me chuckle was:
'First class demand can only be proven when BA return'.
'First class demand can only be proven when BA return'.
I've no statistics to back it up but my impression is that Business Class does well on a number of long haul routes from MAN - UA and DL to New York for example, EK certainly. Don't know about EY or QR. I suspect VS and CX do ok as well. And they can't all be due to frequent flyers or free upgrades.
Last edited by MANFOD; 23rd Nov 2015 at 11:42.