MANCHESTER - 9
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Cheshire
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"I know it is still early days for some but is S15 going to be a consolidation year for medium/short haul?"
I think Viscount702 has raised a reasonable question based on what we know at present.
In terms of short/medium haul it is beginning to look as if growth next year is dependent on whether easyjet and Ryanair add to the schedules already loaded. And as Shed has intimated, this may well depend on availability of equipment or whether airlines continue to switch frames between bases.
Airlines, understandably, are keen to announce new routes but aren't going to highlight services being dropped or frequencies reduced. Jet 2 are a case in point. 3 or 4 new routes get the headlines but we wait to see if there are any further changes to schedules which currently show 2 French routes not bookable and reductions on several others.
Likewise on long haul with TCX. Great to have new routes to JFK & MIA, but in terms of growth, the gloss is taken off rather if the 3 Caribbean routes are not operating next year. Perhaps they will be reinstated but it doesn't look hopeful if, as Viscount suggests, slots have been switched to the new destinations.
There may be things in the pipeline of which we are not aware that could still make a significant impact. And some might contend that a couple of new prestigious long haul routes are more important to the airport than a couple of extra based aircraft from a lo-cost carrier even if the immediate stimulus to passenger numbers is less.
By no means wrist-slitting time Lax and I'm sure Viscount wasn't suggesting the picture is desperate for s2015. But it is not unfair to point out at this stage that not all the signs are pointing in an upward direction.
I think Viscount702 has raised a reasonable question based on what we know at present.
In terms of short/medium haul it is beginning to look as if growth next year is dependent on whether easyjet and Ryanair add to the schedules already loaded. And as Shed has intimated, this may well depend on availability of equipment or whether airlines continue to switch frames between bases.
Airlines, understandably, are keen to announce new routes but aren't going to highlight services being dropped or frequencies reduced. Jet 2 are a case in point. 3 or 4 new routes get the headlines but we wait to see if there are any further changes to schedules which currently show 2 French routes not bookable and reductions on several others.
Likewise on long haul with TCX. Great to have new routes to JFK & MIA, but in terms of growth, the gloss is taken off rather if the 3 Caribbean routes are not operating next year. Perhaps they will be reinstated but it doesn't look hopeful if, as Viscount suggests, slots have been switched to the new destinations.
There may be things in the pipeline of which we are not aware that could still make a significant impact. And some might contend that a couple of new prestigious long haul routes are more important to the airport than a couple of extra based aircraft from a lo-cost carrier even if the immediate stimulus to passenger numbers is less.
By no means wrist-slitting time Lax and I'm sure Viscount wasn't suggesting the picture is desperate for s2015. But it is not unfair to point out at this stage that not all the signs are pointing in an upward direction.
Join Date: Jun 2011
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A couple of months ago there was a post on here about over capacity or low prices on holiday flights from MAN and N/West so these changes are not a surprise but it is still early days and further changes are bound to happen.
Join Date: Jul 2007
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I'm sure you're right j636 and the final picture won't be clear until early 2015.
The growth in the peak summer months this year has been exceptional, and more than predicted, and MAN has performed better in the percentage rise in pax numbers than most other UK airports. Jet 2 have recently commented in an upturn in bookings after a sluggish start (not specifically referring to MAN), so they may be re-evaluating the issue of over capacity.
Not had chance to study the CAA stats yet but from comments on another site there are some impressive figures.
The growth in the peak summer months this year has been exceptional, and more than predicted, and MAN has performed better in the percentage rise in pax numbers than most other UK airports. Jet 2 have recently commented in an upturn in bookings after a sluggish start (not specifically referring to MAN), so they may be re-evaluating the issue of over capacity.
Not had chance to study the CAA stats yet but from comments on another site there are some impressive figures.
Join Date: Apr 2004
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Given there is overcapacity on certain routes, it means the various airlines on said route are running with empty seats, one the the incumbents leaving should therefore mean the remaining airlines can fill those empty seats. Therefore it does not indicate a decrease in the number of passengers using the airport but rather secures the remaining services and makes them profitable or more profitable.
I seem to recall this time last year people bemoaning the future for 2014, and we haven't done too bad, there is still time so lets be patient.
I seem to recall this time last year people bemoaning the future for 2014, and we haven't done too bad, there is still time so lets be patient.
Join Date: Sep 2002
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The exit of an incumbent carrier from an over-served route does mean that the remaining operators can fill more of their seats. However, it does not follow that total passenger numbers on the route will remain the same. Overcapacity results in low fare offers which artificially inflate demand. This is great news for customers (at least in the short term) but it is bad for airline profits. The withdrawal of an incumbent reduces seat-dumping at distressed tariffs rendering the route more viable for the remaining carriers. This is good news for the long-term sustainability of the route going forward, but from the airport's point of view a reduction in overall passenger throughput does result. Price-sensitive opportunist travellers ('bargain hunters') will disappear. Their bookings are discretionary, and will only be made in response to 'Ker-Pow!' seat-sale offers. When 'normal' (profitable) tariffs prevail, they don't travel.
So, you are quite correct that reduced capacity on an over-served route will safeguard the remaining operators and restore or enhance carrier profits. However, a decrease in passenger numbers will result.
So, you are quite correct that reduced capacity on an over-served route will safeguard the remaining operators and restore or enhance carrier profits. However, a decrease in passenger numbers will result.
Join Date: Dec 2003
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Given the logic of the last few posts the ending of the Egyptair service might clearly be viewed as positive news as their passengers migrate to other services.
That said if another route goes,
then another
then another
then another
We will presumably retain the pax throughput ?
...despite actually losing one service after another OR am I missing something ?
That said if another route goes,
then another
then another
then another
We will presumably retain the pax throughput ?
...despite actually losing one service after another OR am I missing something ?
Join Date: Feb 2004
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There is a bit of a difference between losing one of multiple services to CDG and losing the sole connection to CAI, which is a bigger blow IMO. Wonder if it was down to loads, or red tape !?
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: London (Babylon-on-Thames)
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Guys are you surprised? Egypt is off the holiday radar for many due to ongoing revolutionary antics. LHR now has a half empty A330 instead of the B77W so it's no surprise MAN lost the B738 service.
If business really needs to get their, a way will be found via KL/BA/AF/LH or even MS via LHR (God forbid, I know).
It'll be back when the revolution calms a little.
If business really needs to get their, a way will be found via KL/BA/AF/LH or even MS via LHR (God forbid, I know).
It'll be back when the revolution calms a little.
Join Date: Oct 2009
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No more Lufthansa Regional flights at MAN. Dusseldorf flight transferred to Germanwings as of today.
And Libyan not likely to return to MAN for a while yet so with the loss of Egyptair at MAN no African carriers for summer 2015.
Last year there was a rumour of Royal Air Maroc to MAN - this no longer on the cards?
And Libyan not likely to return to MAN for a while yet so with the loss of Egyptair at MAN no African carriers for summer 2015.
Last year there was a rumour of Royal Air Maroc to MAN - this no longer on the cards?
Schedules from volatile countries such as Egypt and Libya will always be in jeopardy because of the political situation in these places. However Egyptair perhaps should concentrate not on Cairo but Sharm or Hurghada where most Brits go on holiday. If they have a marketing dept then perhaps they could work with MAN airport to sell the area with direct flights. We can only hope!
But why? We already have several carriers on the SSH route and the Red Sea is hardly Egyptairs core competence from places like MAN. Besides, it's a dry airline.... Trust me when I say that wouldn't go down very well with your average Sharm pax!
Join Date: Apr 2004
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Of course the loss of a single carrier on a route is a negative, to say anything else would be ridiculous. As has been said there are political issues with Cairo and one would hope when things improve there and in Libya we will see the return to services to these countries.
However reading some peoples comments on here you would think we are losing passengers hand over fist, no new services are due and the future of the airport is dire.
There are services coming along that will mitigate these losses, I accept some but maybe not all passengers who used the airlines that have left will move to other carriers from the airport.
More importantly we can hopefully expect the new plans for T1/3 soon which will improve the service from the airport itself. Metrolink is here soon, and long haul services to Hong Kong and hopefully Beijing are very good news for Manchester.
Those who prefer to look at the negatives are free to do so you are wholly entitled to an opinion, but there are some of us who see the positives outweighing the negatives right now.
However reading some peoples comments on here you would think we are losing passengers hand over fist, no new services are due and the future of the airport is dire.
There are services coming along that will mitigate these losses, I accept some but maybe not all passengers who used the airlines that have left will move to other carriers from the airport.
More importantly we can hopefully expect the new plans for T1/3 soon which will improve the service from the airport itself. Metrolink is here soon, and long haul services to Hong Kong and hopefully Beijing are very good news for Manchester.
Those who prefer to look at the negatives are free to do so you are wholly entitled to an opinion, but there are some of us who see the positives outweighing the negatives right now.
Join Date: Sep 2002
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Don't expect Libyan back any time soon. The infrastructure of Tripoli Airport is effectively destroyed along with many aircraft there. And the airport itself is now controlled by fundamentalist loons directly out of the stone-age. Weaponry from Ghadaffi's former armoury is now widely dispersed amongst militant groups and much of this has crossed borders especially to the South. Note the basket-case states across the Maghreb.
Much of the news from this part of the world is not widely reported in the UK. This is because Iraq and Syria are considered more compelling news stories here. Also, historic colonial links in that region tend to be with France, Belgium, Italy. But despite the dearth of news coverage, the Maghreb region of Africa is a complete mess.
Consider Libyan's MAN-TIP service gone. This is no short-term suspension.
Much of the news from this part of the world is not widely reported in the UK. This is because Iraq and Syria are considered more compelling news stories here. Also, historic colonial links in that region tend to be with France, Belgium, Italy. But despite the dearth of news coverage, the Maghreb region of Africa is a complete mess.
Consider Libyan's MAN-TIP service gone. This is no short-term suspension.
Join Date: Dec 2003
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Given the apparent recognition by Government that there is life outside Westminster, is there an opportunity by the airport to lobby and indeed capitalise, maybe an APD holiday on long haul would be in order ?
In addition The Labour party are in town, another opportunity to press flesh !
In addition The Labour party are in town, another opportunity to press flesh !
Join Date: Dec 2011
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Given the apparent recognition by Government that there is life outside Westminster, is there an opportunity by the airport to lobby and indeed capitalise, maybe an APD holiday on long haul would be in order ?
Join Date: Jul 2007
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In addition The Labour party are in town, another opportunity to press flesh !
Don't know what involvement goes on nowadays
Join Date: Oct 2009
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Delta service to JFK next summer on a 757 rather than a 767 as previously thought:
DELTA Adds New York JFK ? Manchester Service from July 2015 | Airline Route
DELTA Adds New York JFK ? Manchester Service from July 2015 | Airline Route