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DONCASTER SHEFFIELD

Old 24th Dec 2012, 08:55
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"VAS have obviously jumped ship as they see no future for the airport.

First step, in my opinion of quietly winding the place up."

Or maybe the opposite .... VAS weren't the saviours every one seemed to think ... look at their airports. They either just keep things ticking over or have airports that 'develop' themselves ....
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Old 26th Dec 2012, 18:39
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six years ago this month

Back in december 2006 the following was written by the Doncaster Airport Management:

The passenger numbers for the first 12 months of operation were 840,000 and
rapid growth is forecast for future years. Indeed, by the end of 2007 the numbers
are predicted to be approaching 2 million and this is anticipated to double by the
end of 2010.
Where do we find the official statistics to compare this to reality?

bb
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Old 26th Dec 2012, 18:55
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Badbear - passenger stats are published by the CAA on their website. In the case of Doncaster you can also find a summary on the wikipedia page for Doncaster airport.
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Old 26th Dec 2012, 21:09
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Number of Passengers[11] Number of Movements[12] Passengers Change YoY
2005 600,907 6,914 -
2006 948,017 10,642 Increase57.8%
2007 1,078,374 12,667 Increase13.8%
2008 968,481 13,066 Decrease10.2%
2009 835,768 10,584 Decrease13.7%
2010 876,153 11,030 Increase4.8%
2011 822,877 11,876 Decrease6.1%

Thanks davidjohnson6 its a really useful summary. looks like another airport with delusions of 4 million passengers and not quite making the 1.3million breakeven figure.

When the airport confidently predicted 2 million passengers in 2007 and delivered 55% of that, were the exagerating or did something change? To be 80% below the 2010 estimate seems extreme.

If I divide the 12,000 movements by 365 I get 32 but the movements board has shown as few as one inbound and on outbound in a day seldome more than 4 in and 4 out, has the place taken a bit of a down turn over the last few months?

bb
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Old 26th Dec 2012, 21:21
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To be 80% below the 2010 estimate seems extreme.
Not considering the economy has been going south since 2008. Many regional airports will be seeing large decreases on the projections for 2008 onwards. For a new airport (the airport was only 3 years old when the economic woes started), the drop will be more extreme. Peel have large pockets, and so DSA will be able to survive the downturn.
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Old 27th Dec 2012, 07:02
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All airports in the uk are well short on their passenger forecasts and not just DSA. When Manchester had its 2nd runway approved, the mid range forecast provided at the public inquiry was for 43.5 million passengers by 2015, some 20m pax adrift. At the DSA public inquiry, Manchester Airport themselves had forecast DSA's traffic to reach 8.5m pax. Several things have happened affecting all uk airports, not just DSA.....the growth bubble burst when the economy went south and when low cost airlines recognised they could get better returns by basing planes in eastern european markets, and the sensitive Treasury dept introduced and kept raising the APD tax, a flying tax unique to the uk, which effectively taxes growth out of our skies and encourages the airlines also to base planes elsewhere.
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Old 27th Dec 2012, 12:21
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Guess the world changed?

Im not sure when Peel bought the airport but would guess it was around 1999 when fuel hit its historic low of $17 Barrel. By 2007 it was $80 and a year later $140. Senior anylists expect $200 by 2020.

The BIG question is; what would have to change to get the industry back to the earlier expectations, and how likely is it for whatever it is to happen?

Perhaps the expectetions were based on undertaxation and un realistically cheap oil? It might be that we will never see the number of passengers that were once predicted.

bb
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Old 27th Dec 2012, 12:55
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Im not sure when Peel bought the airport but would guess it was around 1999 when fuel hit its historic low of $17 Barrel. By 2007 it was $80 and a year later $140. Senior anylists expect $200 by 2020.

The BIG question is; what would have to change to get the industry back to the earlier expectations, and how likely is it for whatever it is to happen?
I don't think the price of oil has that big an impact, as the budget airlines (especially Ryanair and Easyjet) are constantly expanding and seeing increasing passenger numbers.
The economy is the big thing. Airlines are being very careful about where to open routes, and they expect returns much quicker to justify the cost of basing a 50 million aircraft at a particular airport. They quickly ditch poor performing routes and move aircraft to other airports. When the economy improves (not if, as it has to improve at some stage otherwise Western Europe will be f******), regional airports will surely see passenger numbers rise.

Last edited by wb9999; 27th Dec 2012 at 12:56.
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Old 27th Dec 2012, 16:29
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wb9999

If it was just the economy being the problem then all the regional airports would be in the same situation as DSA.This is not the case,the northern regional airports with large catchment areas are continuing to expand.The likes of Leeds,Manchester and Newcastle are seeing new airlines and more routes being introduced.You have said in your above post the airlines will go where the money is.The concern for DSA is similar to MME once an airline reduces its frequencies or stops flying altogether will they return even if the economy improves?
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Old 4th Jan 2013, 20:56
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Some good points but the one point missed is that airlines do consolidate when economies are going down, most businesses do in fact. Consolidation in this industry does mean that those airports with less flights will be more likely to lose them and those that have more flights will be less likely to.

This is also because more the airline costs will be fixed at their larger stations. During better times economically, more regional airports prospered, the hope now must be to ride out the recession to the point where airlines want to grow new markets again.....also maybe even properly grow the likes of Manchester again, as their figures are the furthest away from what had been forecast 5-10 years ago.

If the government want to give these airports and regions a kick start, all they need do is admit their APD tax is counter-productive and scrap it, therefore returning UK airports to a level playing field with Europe.
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Old 1st Feb 2013, 23:39
  #191 (permalink)  
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Hearing rumblings of more bad news for DSA
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Old 1st Feb 2013, 23:58
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Like? What. What gleefull bad news will you bround and happy to see. Seeingvhow your desperate ti see it shut
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Old 2nd Feb 2013, 00:08
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Hearing rumblings of more bad news for DSA
Why didn't your mate in the Free Press print it on Thursday?

Eventually there will be another setback for DSA - there are for all airports - and you will be able to say 'I told you so' as you have come out with this so often. You are the reverse of the boy who cried 'Wolf'.

I know this is a rumour network, but rumours usually have more meat than unspecified 'rumblings'.
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Old 2nd Feb 2013, 07:34
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Ignore TimmyW. He just wants you to think "I know something that you don't, but I won't tell you". It's like being back at school.
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Old 2nd Feb 2013, 17:00
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His claims have never come to anything. Like its been said he says it regular enough to eventually be correct. boring
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Old 2nd Feb 2013, 20:33
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To my mind the big problem with Peel's traffic projections for DSA in the early days was that huge proportion of the traffic - from memory it was around 80% - was not new travellers, it was business poached from Manchester, Leeds-Bradford and Humberside.
NS
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Old 2nd Feb 2013, 21:28
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NS, an interesting perspective...but poached? hardly, when those passengers actually live in South Yorkshire and any passenger wants to fly from their local airports if they have a choice
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Old 2nd Feb 2013, 22:13
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Lets look at the surrounding airports . Lba man etc.at a similar age as DSA is now . Lower flight numbers operators came and went. Leeds had highs and lows. Recent youtube fottage shown 80's sometime departures boards read like Dsa today.
Its taking time to establish.without talking too much about it ( might jinx it ). But klm if we get decent timings v early morning flights say 6.30 .into amd in 45 mins. So hood connections.

Dsa can matket then klm to the world as they have elsewhere. Heres hoping.
Though if they did in sheer luck give us a three or for times daily
Then finally that needed hub connection will spur others to join in esp the likes oof ryan air
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Old 2nd Feb 2013, 22:18
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FYI

One of the DTVA Trolls posted this on the DTVA forum you guys might find it interesting.

Peel news
I only ask as they made this cargo announcement about the other Peel airport down the road a few days ago.

Cargo Growth for South Yorkshire's Airport - The Peel Group

Cargo Growth for South Yorkshire's Airport
Tuesday, 15 January 2013
Doncaster Sheffield Airport is on target to record a three hundred per cent increase in its cargo figures for the year March 2012 - March 2013, bosses announced today.
The airport, which last year boosted its cargo offering by developing a number of strategic partnerships, is forecasting moving in excess of 400 tonnes of cargo by the year end.
Steve Gill, managing director said: "We made a number of decisions last year which have already started to pay off in terms of our cargo offering.
"Cargo is seen as a catalyst for developing the region's logistics presence and putting Doncaster firmly on the map as a can do location and centre of excellence for logistics
"Working with two key operators, who are now based on site at the airport, Anglo World Cargo, experts in the freight industry and Weston Aviation, who have a proven track record for attracting business aviation, cargo flights and ad-hoc charters, we have been able to attract more companies to use this fantastic South Yorkshire facility."
Working in partnership with both these operators DSA is now providing a product that is both facilitating and developing the movement of freight to and from the Yorkshire, Humber and Midlands regions.
"We have one clear objective - to develop a cargo product which will allow the partners, the airport, businesses in the region and the region itself to develop business in this sector.
"This partnership has seen one billion pounds worth of goods pass through the airport in the last six months alone.
"Our facility has already been welcomed positively in the marketplace as a viable contender to other major freight airports within the UK," added Steve.
The airport's Cargo Terminal consists of 50.000 sq. ft. of operational space and is equipped with the latest cargo handling equipment. This, coupled with the airport's 2893m runway, means that Anglo World Cargo have the ability to handle all aspects of airfreight from the smallest parcel to bespoke charters of the largest cargo aircraft, up to and including Antonov-225's.
"Cargo is a real growth area for us and we are determined to build on this success. Future developments such as the Finningley and Rossington Regeneration Route Scheme (FARRRS), a direct link road to the motorway network means that soon the airport will be even more accessible.
"The FARRRS project will add further weight to the proposition and will create a fantastic multimodal facility with road, rail, air and sea coming together.
"We've always seen Air Freight as a major part of the airports strategy and are delighted by our new partners' proactive and dedicated approach.
"Whilst the economy continues to be challenging nationally, we believe we can offer the marketplace a cost effective and flexible solution to moving airfreight in and out of the UK. In addition, we look forward to working with the Sheffield City Region's successful manufacturing and logistics sector to help local businesses export effectively."
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Old 3rd Feb 2013, 11:25
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Without wishing to sound too troll-y, 400t is half of what EMA sees in one night - just putting things into context!

Mike
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