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Monarch - 3

Old 14th Oct 2014, 08:24
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Facelookbothered

My recent post was actually in answer to Southside Hangar who had not, it appeared, seen coverage regarding the redundancies.

With regard to the more general situation I have doubts regarding the 'intentions' of Greybull Capital. They are, by there own admission a vulture fund and their input into Comet Electrical and Riley Snooker suggests they may be in it for a short term gain. The early morning slots, MAEL, Cosmos etc. may be worth more than the money they are injecting and indeed I have read that contingent liabilities are in excess of the Greybull injection figure and the pension black hole is another factor. The fact that Avalon Waterways do not form part of the sale is telling insofar as this is where the Swiss see growth/profit.

I agree that the winter period is difficult for any bucket and spade airline and Monarch will probably suffer from the reported slow take up of ski packages. In addition the recent uncertainty must place doubt for some pax bookings. Greybull Capital can therefore stay in long term (I have my doubts), liquidate or float. Given the current financial situation I cannot see any sale of Monarch being attractive to the City however this is where the competition score ie having the ability to call upon shareholder backing when it comes to say aircraft fleet renewal/expansion.

I feel the Swiss (and the board at the time) just let matters drag on for too long whilst the others were expanding and whilst I commend the new board for trying to get a grip of the matter I question whether it is too late particularly in respect of the partner they have had to run with.


LBA flights loaded today > http://www.monarch.co.uk/news/flight...ummer-2015-lba



http://www.travelmole.com/news_featu...etreg&region=2


http://www.travelweekly.co.uk/Articl...d+airport.html

Last edited by 111KAB; 14th Oct 2014 at 12:00. Reason: LBA/2015/ZB flights
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Old 14th Oct 2014, 10:40
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They are, by there own admission a vulture fund and their input into Comet Electrical and Riley Snooker suggests they may be in it for a short term gain.
It will be interesting to see how Greybull steer the airline...

I personally think the airline will be stripped of much of its assets. For example Cosmos/Avro tour operations and Monarch Engineering sold off. Also assets like aircraft, hangars and HQ building if any of this is owned by the airline sold and leased back.

I think the Boeing order will be cancelled and they will make do with the reduced A320/321 fleet for the short term before making a decision.

I also fear if the airline does not return to a profit quickly, it will be shut down or sold off to a competitor!

It does make me wonder if the airline will be primed for a merger in the longer term once overheads are dramatically reduced, for example to the likes of easyJet, with a compatible fleet, additional slots at LGW and MAN. Also offering them a ready made base at Birmingham and a new larger HQ building in Luton.

I'll be shot down for been the doomsday mongerer, but I think people need to realise Greybull are not the knight in shining armour, many think they are. They only takeover a business if a fast buck can be made, and the airline industry is not a place you come to get rich quickly!

Last edited by gilesdavies; 14th Oct 2014 at 10:55.
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Old 14th Oct 2014, 10:54
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With a large black hole in the pension fund, few owned aircraft and the costs involved in merging I doubt anyone would buy it. Be more cost effective to just let it implode then pick up the pieces without any of the liabilities. Besides, A321 is not wanted at EZ
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Old 14th Oct 2014, 10:56
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Hull City - i've waited and i've now seen ......
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Old 14th Oct 2014, 11:17
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ALC & NAP on sale just waiting for the other 4 to come.
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Old 14th Oct 2014, 11:20
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Monarch`s own blurb just announces 2 new routes (Alicante and Naples)..If they were going to do more I would have thought it would have been all at the same time...

Update from the horses mouth: http://www.monarch.co.uk/news/flight...ummer-2015-lba

hmmm......
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Old 14th Oct 2014, 14:34
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Hull City, disregarding people who are EXTREMELY knowledgable on the subject while running round getting more info for an enthusiast doesnt help your case.

I thought Monarch's recovery was based around focusing on the core business, not chasing more loss-making rainbows in Jet2's back garden.

...but if that is indeed the case, its just new lunatics running the old asylum.
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Old 14th Oct 2014, 17:07
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As said before it might be an agreement with gardener means that have to play in that particular garden for a while
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Old 14th Oct 2014, 21:01
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Grrr

I wonder how much the 'prime' Gatwick slots might be worth?

Flybe sold 25 departure and arrival slots for 20m. Might Monarch post take-over be bought just for these type of assets and Airbus rated crew? The 'Bulls' will want to maximise the disposal which is probably going to happen?
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Old 14th Oct 2014, 21:37
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Monde, good for you. This is of course a rumour network, even someone providing information, which is usually reliable, can be wrong once in a while.

Renort, what's wrong with attempting to find information out for enthusiasts? & 'extremely knowledgeable" ?!? Hmm okay then.
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Old 15th Oct 2014, 07:18
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Buster: those crews come with liabilities such as the pension deficit, high wages, cost of integration as well as the fact that they may not be a cultural fit for the new airline. Much cheaper just let it implode and then mop up the good stuff.
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Old 15th Oct 2014, 12:26
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Hull

When peoples livelihoods and mortgages are on the line, feeding the droolers who are more interested in colour schemes, reggies and if particular aircraft have winglets or 'things that make them fly further' becomes a little tedious.
Theres a section called spotters corner dedicated to that particular enterprise.

Sorry but far too many people on this thread confuse opinion and/or rumour with fact. Therefore unfortunately it is you who is
spouting your mouth off
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Old 15th Oct 2014, 17:01
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This winter will be a tough one. Ebola hysteria spreading, fears of a eurozone recession and a fragile worldwide economy will hit traffic. The usual ten year cycles in the airlines would appear to be getting shorter. Mix these things in, and the chronic overcapacity in Europe and its a perfect storm for the airlines. There will be casualties in the UK, Ireland and Europe too.
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Old 15th Oct 2014, 17:35
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Renort:

Aww don't you like the discussion. Diddums.

Its a forum for all, if you don't like it, dont read it. Simples.
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Old 15th Oct 2014, 20:04
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Grrr

I appreciate all the 'baggage' that comes with a take over, but it might be the only method to secure all the slots? Short-term hit for a long-term gain?

I still cannot believe what is happening at Monarch and having met many that occupy the front two seats - good luck to you all, whatever the outcome.
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Old 15th Oct 2014, 20:15
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The usual ten year cycles in the airlines would appear to be getting shorter. Mix these things in, and the chronic overcapacity in Europe and its a perfect storm for the airlines. There will be casualties in the UK, Ireland and Europe too.
Well I was told the economic cycle was 7 years. If you remember 9/11 (ushering in one downturn) to Excel going bust (ushering in the next) was 7 years to the day.

7 years after that will be this time next year. With the Eurozone looking dodgy, it'll be the EU to LGW where the bloodbath will occur; Easy/ BA/ Norwegian. Can't see it'll effect the sun routes. If the last recession proved anything, the package holiday won't be in any doubt, but point to point EU travel will be.
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Old 20th Oct 2014, 15:21
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Monarch job losses reduced by 200 - www.travelweekly.co.uk
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Old 20th Oct 2014, 18:36
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Grrr

With a 'black hole' of 150m in the Final Salary Pension Scheme, the take over appears far from 'done and dusted'!

Confidence over Monarch rescue as deadline looms - www.travelweekly.co.uk
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Old 21st Oct 2014, 17:00
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Pension Black holes can disappear into the PPF, that's what happened in the BMI takeover where Lufthansa made an under payment of circa 80M. The losers were the high salary earners ie pilots
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Old 23rd Oct 2014, 15:27
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Tomorrow should be the big day.........
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