BELFAST AIRPORT INTERNATIONAL
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Yes but like I said, Belfast-City is the smaller and lower cost airport. I don't know of any cases where they use the further away airport when that's the larger/much expensive one. In Milan, using Bergamo rather than Malpensa or Beauvais instead og Charles de Gaulle or Orly in Paris is a way of cutting costs. Using Aldergrove rather than Belfast City doesn't follow that rule.
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I don't have the performance figures to hand but I'm not sure EI's A319/A320s could depart BHD with 144/174 bound for TFS/ACE/LPA
Just on the distance form city to airports. Milan BGY is the same distance from Milan as Milan MXP.
Last edited by Jamie2k9; 5th Oct 2012 at 20:21.
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BHX, TFS & ACE
So with Easyjet starting Birmingham in a couple of weeks how are bookings looking on the route ? And how are the bookings looking on Jet2 Tenerife and Lanzarote ?
Last edited by Mlinnie; 10th Oct 2012 at 17:13.
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EZY
BHX looks ok judging by the fares. Most domestic flights tend to book later. Going by this MOn, Friday and Sun looks good
Based on the MAN start they had 8K plus in the first month so probably similar I think going up to 12K plus after a few months once PAX get used to EZY on route
It will be interesting to see how allocated seating will help the figures
Still disappointed that EZY have not allocated another plane for summer 13
Based on the MAN start they had 8K plus in the first month so probably similar I think going up to 12K plus after a few months once PAX get used to EZY on route
It will be interesting to see how allocated seating will help the figures
Still disappointed that EZY have not allocated another plane for summer 13
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On a slightly less interesting topic...
The last day of operations from BFS for EI will reflect the following;
Flights to Malaga and Alicante will touch down in Dublin on the outbound and operate back nonstop.. due to very light bookings on the way out. Interestingly enough flying BFS DUB ALC is cheaper than flying DUB ALC on the same aircraft!
Faro and Lanzarote will be nonstop.
Both 319s will position to BHD, first one on Sat after arriving from LHR at 2040 (to operate 1st LGW), second on Sunday morning to arrive at BHD 0630 (to operate 1st LHR). (EPS & EPR)
The 320 that comes back up from Lanzarote will return to Dublin.
EI-BUD
Flights to Malaga and Alicante will touch down in Dublin on the outbound and operate back nonstop.. due to very light bookings on the way out. Interestingly enough flying BFS DUB ALC is cheaper than flying DUB ALC on the same aircraft!
Faro and Lanzarote will be nonstop.
Both 319s will position to BHD, first one on Sat after arriving from LHR at 2040 (to operate 1st LGW), second on Sunday morning to arrive at BHD 0630 (to operate 1st LHR). (EPS & EPR)
The 320 that comes back up from Lanzarote will return to Dublin.
EI-BUD
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Gazmo:
I think that LHR will do fine, will do just as well as BFS route did and maybe a bit more profit. Gatwick will take a while to establish and will be tight enough, though my guess would be that Gatwick numbers will grow significantly overall as a result of the extra capacity. easyJet might feel a bit of a pinch, lets think back to FR arrival at BHD, EI arrived at same time. So the effect of EI launching 4 daily LHR at that time and FR launching 5 daily at that time on STN was that easyJet dropped LTN STN and LGW by 1 each day so LGW went from 6 to 5 and 4 somedays , STN similar I think went to 4, so if I recall easyJet probably took 3 rotations out per day.
Effect was that overall number grew quite strongly. Again FR had rock bottom fares.
Passengers who are choosing the options of winter city breaks may be attracted to London as opposed to some of the Euro routes, add to this easyJet have cut back on some routes over winter compared to LY, and EI's own Euro routes have been withdrawn so I would imagine London routes will see a nice boost, particularly LGW.
I believe EI will perservere for as long as it takes to make LGW work, the sun routes will be a good money spinner and this is so strategically important for BHD, so EI need to make this work...
I think that LHR will do fine, will do just as well as BFS route did and maybe a bit more profit. Gatwick will take a while to establish and will be tight enough, though my guess would be that Gatwick numbers will grow significantly overall as a result of the extra capacity. easyJet might feel a bit of a pinch, lets think back to FR arrival at BHD, EI arrived at same time. So the effect of EI launching 4 daily LHR at that time and FR launching 5 daily at that time on STN was that easyJet dropped LTN STN and LGW by 1 each day so LGW went from 6 to 5 and 4 somedays , STN similar I think went to 4, so if I recall easyJet probably took 3 rotations out per day.
Effect was that overall number grew quite strongly. Again FR had rock bottom fares.
Passengers who are choosing the options of winter city breaks may be attracted to London as opposed to some of the Euro routes, add to this easyJet have cut back on some routes over winter compared to LY, and EI's own Euro routes have been withdrawn so I would imagine London routes will see a nice boost, particularly LGW.
I believe EI will perservere for as long as it takes to make LGW work, the sun routes will be a good money spinner and this is so strategically important for BHD, so EI need to make this work...
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EI BUD
I like your thinking but with
1.EZY putting on an extra flight to LGW it appears that they are not withdrawing flights as happens with FR arrival at BHD
BE is going to fight for market share.
Even if EI hits 16Kpax per month that's taking one third of BE pax and one quarter of EZY pax......can't see it some how
With BE connections at LGW with BA and their own I feel there will only be a small reduction in numbers. Likewise EZY are attacking the business market more with allocated seating etc
LHR is reducing based on caa stats. OK they had four flights last summer compared to three this summer, but BA is upping the flights to max 7 per day and I believe BA has a stronger brand image than EI. Previously BA sold many flights for EI to link with the LHR operation, even on their website they are not doing so now.
I believe the EI operation will decrease to about 16 to 17K pax per month from the current 20K
Looking forward to the November stats
I like your thinking but with
1.EZY putting on an extra flight to LGW it appears that they are not withdrawing flights as happens with FR arrival at BHD
BE is going to fight for market share.
Even if EI hits 16Kpax per month that's taking one third of BE pax and one quarter of EZY pax......can't see it some how
With BE connections at LGW with BA and their own I feel there will only be a small reduction in numbers. Likewise EZY are attacking the business market more with allocated seating etc
LHR is reducing based on caa stats. OK they had four flights last summer compared to three this summer, but BA is upping the flights to max 7 per day and I believe BA has a stronger brand image than EI. Previously BA sold many flights for EI to link with the LHR operation, even on their website they are not doing so now.
I believe the EI operation will decrease to about 16 to 17K pax per month from the current 20K
Looking forward to the November stats
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Gazmo; much of what you say is true, and yes BA are in a stronger position for a host of reasons, but lets not forget that EI have a good platform to market their existing Belfast London customers, those who have flown EI before will be on the mailing list, EI have strong offers and they will feed BA to some extent at LHR from BHD.
Yes CAA Stats are decling for EI ex BFS but last year BFS LHR peaked at 32k pax and came close to Bmi at 36K, it was a great July, this year flights to London were not great and overall EZY report very soft booking for July during Olympics time. Ignoring all of that not only did EI reduce capacity, but they ended up putting 319 on most if not nearly all of the rotations, moving the 320 to the Canary routes and to Faro, so the disappearance of bmibaby created some profitable opportunities much to the cost of LHR.
The ironic thing about CAA Stats is that we might expect say for e.g. that Belfast London route is about 160k pax per month, when competition comes about it could grow by 10-15% I wouldnt be surprised if the price equation is right and as I said earlier a lot of ppl will do short break in London on impulse, so not only conversion from Euro flights which will be down but impulse trips certainly if the prices are low.
My guess is that BE will take a hit of 7K pax per month between now and year end, progressively rising to that level and the overall EZY mix from BFS will lose about 6K pax per month, otherwise the STN numbers ex BHD may be converts to LHR or LGW on bargain fairs. So my guess is for EI (though we wont know for sure what the split is) 20k per month on LHR, (word is EI secured some good corporate contracts for ex BHD that used to be bmi customers) LGW I will suggest 12-13k pax per month by year end.
So overall that would suggest based on my estimation that
BHD LHR will go to 55k pax per month
BHD LGW will go to 28/29K pax per month
We wont be able to judge very well the EI performance on either unless we have inside info as the CAA Stats will be cumulative for the 2 airlines on each route.
Thinking about WW when they moved MAN and BHX to BHD the totals on the route were approx equal to the combined usual MAN and BHX to BFS...
Time will tell....
EI-BUD
Yes CAA Stats are decling for EI ex BFS but last year BFS LHR peaked at 32k pax and came close to Bmi at 36K, it was a great July, this year flights to London were not great and overall EZY report very soft booking for July during Olympics time. Ignoring all of that not only did EI reduce capacity, but they ended up putting 319 on most if not nearly all of the rotations, moving the 320 to the Canary routes and to Faro, so the disappearance of bmibaby created some profitable opportunities much to the cost of LHR.
The ironic thing about CAA Stats is that we might expect say for e.g. that Belfast London route is about 160k pax per month, when competition comes about it could grow by 10-15% I wouldnt be surprised if the price equation is right and as I said earlier a lot of ppl will do short break in London on impulse, so not only conversion from Euro flights which will be down but impulse trips certainly if the prices are low.
My guess is that BE will take a hit of 7K pax per month between now and year end, progressively rising to that level and the overall EZY mix from BFS will lose about 6K pax per month, otherwise the STN numbers ex BHD may be converts to LHR or LGW on bargain fairs. So my guess is for EI (though we wont know for sure what the split is) 20k per month on LHR, (word is EI secured some good corporate contracts for ex BHD that used to be bmi customers) LGW I will suggest 12-13k pax per month by year end.
So overall that would suggest based on my estimation that
BHD LHR will go to 55k pax per month
BHD LGW will go to 28/29K pax per month
We wont be able to judge very well the EI performance on either unless we have inside info as the CAA Stats will be cumulative for the 2 airlines on each route.
Thinking about WW when they moved MAN and BHX to BHD the totals on the route were approx equal to the combined usual MAN and BHX to BFS...
Time will tell....
EI-BUD
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EI BUD
Interesting and well thought out views
I would agree with BE losing 7k and EZY maybe losing 6K but many pax have a preferred LON airport. OK some will change depending on price but let's add on another 3 K per month to LGW that equals 16 K pax, even with a few more that's less than 100 pax per flight. Yes I know they probably have a zero cost agreement with BHD but these are low LF.
SEN I believe is doing very well nearly 15 K last month so if price is a factor, and of course it is SEN should increase.
Would love to hear from someone at EI about advanced bookings on LGW
Also forgot to say that customer like himself who used EI from BFS to LHR might not use them once they move to BHD.
When I have to connect at LHR I always used EI from BFS, primarily to BA routes. If I have to connect via LHR in future it will be BA from BHD. I wonder how many pax are like myself in this respect
Interesting and well thought out views
I would agree with BE losing 7k and EZY maybe losing 6K but many pax have a preferred LON airport. OK some will change depending on price but let's add on another 3 K per month to LGW that equals 16 K pax, even with a few more that's less than 100 pax per flight. Yes I know they probably have a zero cost agreement with BHD but these are low LF.
SEN I believe is doing very well nearly 15 K last month so if price is a factor, and of course it is SEN should increase.
Would love to hear from someone at EI about advanced bookings on LGW
Also forgot to say that customer like himself who used EI from BFS to LHR might not use them once they move to BHD.
When I have to connect at LHR I always used EI from BFS, primarily to BA routes. If I have to connect via LHR in future it will be BA from BHD. I wonder how many pax are like myself in this respect
Last edited by GAZMO; 10th Oct 2012 at 21:29.
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Given all this talk of how well EI is/will do with bookings what do people think about the 4th daily rotation on LGW next summer? Is this just bullishness? Are they seeing strong bookings? It will certainly make for a better schedule with more options. I agree with EI-BUD I think they will do well on LHR whatever the weather, LGW will probably be a much more cost centred battle, perhaps unless BE cave in or go because of the landing charges changes at LGW. BHD will certainly have a vast swathe of flights to LON.
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I don't think BE will cave in they have seen off opposition in the past
I can't see a big drift to EI. Why? BE have their connections via LGW and codeshare with BE, yes their profit and numbErs will reduce.
EZY have put on an extra flight from mid December, nor withdrawing from this route but increasing.
With SEN doing well and extra weekly flight on friday to luton LGW I believe in number terms for EI will just be oK nothing special
LHR will reduce for EI because of BA and forget LHR unless you favour LHR or are connecting EZY want BUSINESS pax
I can't see a big drift to EI. Why? BE have their connections via LGW and codeshare with BE, yes their profit and numbErs will reduce.
EZY have put on an extra flight from mid December, nor withdrawing from this route but increasing.
With SEN doing well and extra weekly flight on friday to luton LGW I believe in number terms for EI will just be oK nothing special
LHR will reduce for EI because of BA and forget LHR unless you favour LHR or are connecting EZY want BUSINESS pax
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I do admire the blind enthusiasm in the green corner!
A few facts to consider,
Recently BHD had around twelve daily flights to London, while BFS had about sixteen. This winter, with the mad lemming rush at BHD, there might be up to 20 daily London flights with around 14 EZY London flts from BFS.
Many of the EI BFS LHR travellers will switch to EZY BFS LGW et al - Fact.
EI have no hope of gaining the level of awareness and custom on the LGW route that EZY enjoy, given EZY's strength of presence at both ends of this route (see bmibaby STN for previous experience). For that matter flybe are likely to fight to hold their BHD LGW market.
As for Heathrow - take a look at the relative loadings since BA brand came back. EI's only LHR diferentiator of note was BFS!! If we were about to see 3 daily BA flights v around 8-9 EI I might give the greens a fighting chance, but the other way round.........!
Finally - this idea of brilliant prospects and yields on European routes from BHD. We were all advised that bmibaby to the sun from BHD was a storming success, but BA couldn't wait to get bmibaby out of BHD specifically, pronto, once they took over, in order to arrest losses as quickly as possible, if I remember correctly. Light loads by necessity from BHD to Malaga etc is going to be a challenge whenever other airlines can operate cheaper and unrestricted from not too far away.
That said, I wish EI success and hope that they don't end up spending a night or two in the hostelry at BHD on their way straight back down the road to Dublin.
A few facts to consider,
Recently BHD had around twelve daily flights to London, while BFS had about sixteen. This winter, with the mad lemming rush at BHD, there might be up to 20 daily London flights with around 14 EZY London flts from BFS.
Many of the EI BFS LHR travellers will switch to EZY BFS LGW et al - Fact.
EI have no hope of gaining the level of awareness and custom on the LGW route that EZY enjoy, given EZY's strength of presence at both ends of this route (see bmibaby STN for previous experience). For that matter flybe are likely to fight to hold their BHD LGW market.
As for Heathrow - take a look at the relative loadings since BA brand came back. EI's only LHR diferentiator of note was BFS!! If we were about to see 3 daily BA flights v around 8-9 EI I might give the greens a fighting chance, but the other way round.........!
Finally - this idea of brilliant prospects and yields on European routes from BHD. We were all advised that bmibaby to the sun from BHD was a storming success, but BA couldn't wait to get bmibaby out of BHD specifically, pronto, once they took over, in order to arrest losses as quickly as possible, if I remember correctly. Light loads by necessity from BHD to Malaga etc is going to be a challenge whenever other airlines can operate cheaper and unrestricted from not too far away.
That said, I wish EI success and hope that they don't end up spending a night or two in the hostelry at BHD on their way straight back down the road to Dublin.
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Sarcon, well said. I am one who now has Ezy flights to London booked where previous I would have used EI. I know others who have done the same. EI had one market to go after to Lhr, those west of the province who didn't want to travel all the way to Bhd. They don't have that now and with Ezy moving to allocated seating, another part of the ad campaign to be changed. And where is the 1000+ extra pax going to come from per day to keep that Lgw service going?
TB
TB
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True Blue
Well said. I am like yourself in that I am switching to EZY....allocated seating...great
I especially agree with the view that we do not want to trail across the city to fly to LGW. If you live N, NE NW,W,SW, S much easier to BFS. Even in Belfast if your live N or W Belfast just as easy to nip over mountain road to BFS
Well said. I am like yourself in that I am switching to EZY....allocated seating...great
I especially agree with the view that we do not want to trail across the city to fly to LGW. If you live N, NE NW,W,SW, S much easier to BFS. Even in Belfast if your live N or W Belfast just as easy to nip over mountain road to BFS