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Old 1st Apr 2016, 14:17
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Thomas Cook announces further long haul expansion | ...
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Old 1st Apr 2016, 16:49
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Really so positive! Nice one TCX
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Old 1st Apr 2016, 22:28
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Just been looking at Fr to Lgw for Sunday 10th April. 3 of the flights ex Belfast and 1 ex Lgw have 9 or less seats available, according to the search I just did. Amazing.
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Old 1st Apr 2016, 23:12
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Loads on both EZY and FR seem to be heavy. STN LTN also holding up. BE to LCY seems to be the most affected as does LHR. LGW at the rate of loads is likely to be the no1 destination from NI
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Old 1st Apr 2016, 23:16
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Loads on both EZY and FR seem to be heavy. STN LTN also holding up. BE to LCY seems to be the most affected as does LHR. LGW at the rate of loads is likely to be the no1 destination from NI
People who fly to LCY are not the type to fly to LGW, what makes FR more appealing than EZY/EI.

Given it's also Easter break, little early to judge. EZY may well hold up with loads but yield must of taking a hammering.
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Old 1st Apr 2016, 23:28
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Business is more savvy Jamie these days and I'm just expressing what I can see from GDS systems. LGW will be the number 1 very soon. LCY loads have dropped very quickly in such a short period LHR is mostly connecting and business can now mix and match at BFS/LGW to get the best deal.
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Old 1st Apr 2016, 23:46
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Business is more savvy Jamie these days and I'm just expressing what I can see from GDS systems. LGW will be the number 1 very soon. LCY loads have dropped very quickly in such a short period LHR is mostly connecting and business can now mix and match at BFS/LGW to get the best deal.
They didn't get savvy within 10 days. Of course FR and EZY are doing well as EI carried around 20k per month so they will automatically continue to fly to LGW or and other London airport however it would never be LCY given it was LGW in the first place.
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Old 1st Apr 2016, 23:56
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I'm advising what I can see on GDS and LCY loads have dropped. So, explain who are the people who fly to LCY who would never comprehend flying to any other London airport Jamie.
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Old 2nd Apr 2016, 00:04
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'm advising what I can see on GDS and LCY loads have dropped. So, explain who are the people who fly to LCY who would never comprehend flying to any other London airport Jamie.
Provide the data for 12 months ago to make a comparison. Comparing this week with a few weeks ago is not a comparison.

All I am saying is people who use LCY traditionally would not use LGW. It's also bound to take the market to adjust to changes so they may be a short term drop but I wouldn't worry about it. It's the soft fares which FR/EZY will need to worry about.

Remember EI have upped LHR capacity by 180 seats per day at BHD.
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Old 2nd Apr 2016, 00:17
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Past data is of no use Jamie. It's the future data that matters. The LCY loads were around 49% at highest currently at around 28%. The route has not been operating that long and has nosedived. It's the future bookings that matter most and I have been in aviation and in revenue management to know that fora long time.
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Old 2nd Apr 2016, 09:47
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Not really a brilliant day from Ryanair yesterday. 2 returns over 3 hours late in each direction. Nice losses on those flights if everyone clams their compensation. On the other hand, brilliant earner for anyone who bought flights for next to nothng!
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Old 2nd Apr 2016, 10:22
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Flights were around 2 hours and 10 mins late. Not 3 hours Ezy were also running very late last night. LPL heaviest delay. Weather at Gatters was to blame so I don't think Ryanair and easyJet can control that.
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Old 2nd Apr 2016, 10:55
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Flights were around 2 hours and 10 mins late. Not 3 hours Ezy were also running very late last night. LPL heaviest delay. Weather at Gatters was to blame so I don't think Ryanair and easyJet can control that.
FR1138 departed BFS around 23.30. Now, doing the complex maths, I make that around three and a half hours later than the scheduled 20.00 departure. Also, nothing like CAVOK conditions at Gatwick with a 6KT surface wind to ruin operations. However, why does it surprise me that someone on the BFS thread is talking bolleaux? I should be used to it by now.
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Old 2nd Apr 2016, 11:11
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I think if you do the maths 4 flights were over 3hrs late. The reason for the delay was that one aircraft had to divert to Dublin and needed replacing. That put the delays within the rules for €250 compensation per passenger.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/ei-fov
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Old 2nd Apr 2016, 11:26
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I'm retty sure I made it clear I was referring to one specific flight EGAC. I have no knowledge of the other three you refer to, and unlike some on here, won't claim to have information when in fact I don't. DC9 seems to think he/she knows something we don't. They do not.
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Old 2nd Apr 2016, 11:47
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DC9-10

What is your basis for your assertion that 'BE is most affected ' on the London route to LCY?

28% is for what period? It is fair to at that LCY BHD is largely a business route, hence at this stage to log at Easter a defining period is a tad premature. The LCY has attracted string numbers, albeit the loads as you show are low enough. There seems to be good demand for the route, though with BA now offering a much earlier departure than their winter offering, will compete more strongly for the business traveller, more over they may to some extent benefit from the closure of LGW BHD route.

The coming months of analysis of the complete Belfast London market will tell a tale about how sensitive the travelling public are regarding which airport. There is marginally more capacity on LHR with EI now using 320 v 319LY , but a significant increase in pax on LHR and LCY says that there are significant numbers who will use BHD at any cost. There is significant capacity on the 2 BHD routes to support growth in traffic...

Last edited by EI-BUD; 2nd Apr 2016 at 23:43.
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Old 2nd Apr 2016, 14:18
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PinOnTheRight

I knew exactly what I was looking at and it was not as you suggest.
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Old 3rd Apr 2016, 10:58
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Why is it flybe gets talked down at every opportunity? Lcy has taken a dip in loads due to Easter as would be expected on a business route, next weeks loads are back to normal and judging by fares being paid by passengers I would guess flybe getting reasonable yield.
Quoting load factors is also not an exact science as each flight is capped taking into account weather, runway and weight. I have never seen a full 78 seats available it ranges between 70-75.
I wish all airlines success as this adds to the local economy. Personally I have booked flights on flybe, Aerlingus and EasyJet this summer. Further more I base my choice on timings more than just the cheapest fare.
It is a marketplace open to all to decide and I feel it is damaging to slant comments to suggest an airline is in trouble based on personal opinion or a snapshot of such a short period. This comments can be taken as fact and have an affect on passengers confidence to make future bookings on a particular airline or route.
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Old 3rd Apr 2016, 15:50
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Dan, unfortunately there are posters on these forums that will only be happy when FlyBe and/or Harbour close down. I find it very hard to understand especially when these same posters have allegedly no direct interest in either business. There is an air of glee when there is any perceived dip in loads or revenue for anything other than the glorious Aldergrove, this is of course judged by these self proclaimed experts from the comfort of their armchair.

I still stick to the principle of competition and the fact that choice leaves everyone in NI plc better off overall. If Harbour and FlyBe were to disappear overnight then Aldergrove still wouldn't turn into a serious Dublin competitor. It appears this thread and also the Harbour one is populated by check-in agents and aerosexuals all desperate to outdo each other on the doom messages regarding Harbour and any business associated with it, its a pity as there can be some quite interesting things posted but you need a fairly robust bullsh*t filter to find them.
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Old 3rd Apr 2016, 15:52
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Last week statements like 'only 37 on board, FR having effect already' were being bounced about. Let me tell you I flew a few months ago on a Sunday evening LCY-BHD before even FR had made announcement and there wasn't 35 on the aircraft, its predominantly a business route. And no matter how cheap LGW is its still in West Sussex, not East London. The speed and ease of flying city to city is unbeatable. As for LHR it will always have connecting pax and it has tube line and good motorway access to many places. It may loose business but what goes round comes round. Filling large aircraft at a loss won't last forever.

Last edited by mart901; 3rd Apr 2016 at 15:54. Reason: correction
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