DUBLIN - 2

[Jamie2k9]

Cheers Jamie,

Dublin has often mirrored MAN when it comes to Etihad, so, this news is quite shocking.

I just didn't think things had got that bad for EY at Dublin. That said, EY website and all GDS platforms still taking bookings for 2 daily, so, I suppose it's a wait and see.

With EDI getting chopped to 5 weekly too, seems Etihad isn't quite able to keep up with the Joneses down in Dubai.

They had planned to resume B777 (high density) flights (1 daily) this winter if they keep that flight and cut the evening A330 passenger numbers will not suffer a lot during winter besides maybe a slight time over Christmas/NY.

They were planning to provide average of 40,440 seats per month while the B777 will cut that to 24,720 while most winter months just gone were just over 25,000 mark while capacity was around 31,440 (2 A332) as they dropped 777 middle of last winter.

When they had 2 daily B777 (year round) it was average loads of 50%.

Airline route has amended tweet:
From 1 December 12 of 14 weekly bookable
From 1 January 7 of 14 weekly bookable

[LAX_LHR]

It looks like it's the evening flight that's gone and a morning B777 remains. Flights removed from website and GDS after 1st Jan.

[Sober Lark]

What makes you think EK will keep 2 daily let alone 3 or an A380? The second EK had poor load factors whenever I flew with them so I thought 'most people who go to Asia or Aus must go through AUH'.

Of note, EY have their own dedicated business lounge at DUB. EK doesn't.


EK A380 or EY A380? Who is the planning permission for?

[Jamie2k9]

What makes you think EK will keep 2 daily let alone 3 or an A380? The second EK had poor load factors whenever I flew with them so I thought 'most people who go to Asia or Aus must go through AUH'.

Of note, EY have their own dedicated business lounge at DUB. EK doesn't.


EK A380 or EY A380? Who is the planning permission for?

Don't really know much about the A380 but EK are doing well and after a slow start for the second daily service it has picked up a lot since. The upgrade is for EK, EY will never send a A380, said a few weeks ago B787 will take over.

2014 Loads
Jan - 96%
Feb - 89%
Mar - 93%
Apr - 94%
May - 92%
Jun - 100% +
Jul - 100% +
Aug - 100% +
Sep - 66% - Second started
Oct - 62%
Nov - 63%
Dec - 81%

2015 Loads
Jan - 77%
Feb - 57%
Mar - 71%
Apr - 72%

All based on 3 class but they did send quiet a few 2 class particularly during summer so not bothered looking at specifics.

[EI-A330-300]

ET could be responsibe for some EY cuts they are doing well even though only 3 weekly.

EK have been very kind to travel agents which I suspect has really hit EY.

[Sober Lark]

Thanks for those figures Jamie. The figures DAA release always show an increase in numbers. If EY is reducing to 1x daily is there something wrong with Dublin Airports figures? You have 4x Daily to middle East giving following:


09th April -

Other international passenger traffic to the Middle East grew by 45% with just over 63,000 passengers travelling last month.

15th May -

Other international traffic, predominantly to the Middle East, recorded a 23% increase, as almost 62,000 passengers travelled

07th June -

Other international traffic, which includes flights to the Middle East, increased by 22% in May, with over 56,000 passengers travelling these routes during the month

15th July -

Other international traffic, which includes flights to two destinations in the Middle East and three to African destinations rose by 33%

How many passengers would 4 daily 777's carry per month?

EK have been very kind to travel agents

very interesting point EI-A330-300 - so our travel agents are not that independent?


EY had an interest in EI but that has now gone to AIG so whatever plans they had on that one are gone.

[PPRuNeUser0176]

In another update EY close all reservations from 11 Jan-14 June 16.

[LAX_LHR]

I don't think all reservations have closed, I think it was just an update to say that it now goes 1 daily on 10th Jan rather than 1st Jan.

[Jamie2k9]

You have 4x Daily to middle East giving following:

EY had ever only 6 weekly B777 operating for a few months before it was back to A330 so between last September-Jan there would be 3 B777, 1 A332.

daa figures are consistent with stats, here is March 15 v 14 for example:

Other international passenger traffic to the Middle East grew by 45% with just over 63,000 passengers travelling last month.

2015
EY - 25,935, EK - 31,196 = 57.131
RAK - 2,865
AGA - 1,090
SSH - 1,490
Total - 62,576*

2014
EY - 20,662, EK - 20,719 = 41,381
AGA - 1,594
SSH - 557
Total - 43,532*

* - No including once off flights such as that to TLV on both years etc

EY loads over last few months

2014 - 6 777, 8 332
Jan - 83%
Feb - 64%
Mar - 66%
Apr - 84%
May - 68%
Jun - 82%
July - 87% - 10 -14 weekly (15/7)
Aug - 92%
Sep - 67%
Oct - 59%
Nov - 58%
Dec - 72%

2015
Jan - 70%
Feb - 68% - 2 daily A332 resumes
Mar - 80%
Apr - 80%

Show how B777 wasn't ever required and A330 improves numbers considerably however EY increase actual numbers year on year even with B777 gone.
_______

In other news Finnair will increase HEL by 1 weekly to make it daily from 27 March 16, another along wtih ADD who will be looking to increase eastern long haul services.

[Corkshamrock]

EI779 diversion to FAO

Have noticed and not for 1st time over past 2 weeks the ACE-DUB rotation diverting to FAO. EI779 diverted to FAO before proceeding to DUB from ACE on Monday evening any reason why this is occurring or was it medical related?

[AerRyan]

Usually diverting for fuel due to restrictions on the runway at ACE.

[Una Due Tfc]

How are the ET IAD and YYZ pax counted? Are they included in the pax figures for Middle East and Africa or just as transit pax in general?

Also anybody know how are AA's loads holding up on CLT? I honestly thought they were going to drop it, not extend the season with an aircraft twice the size

[EI-A330-300]

very interesting point EI-A330-300 - so our travel agents are not that independent?

Well if EY and EK quote X and Y it is very likely passengers will go for cheapest option which I suspect was EK for a while particularly in it's first year. EK were also much more proactive on the marketing front when it launched. I can't really remember when EY did such visual marketing outside of the Sat/Sun Game and GAA.

In unrelated news revised application for runway will likely be launched in the next few months possibly by December. While passenger numbers will be at required levels, anybody guess as to how long application will take and contracts to be signed.

If all went well construction could start by late 2016 and it has been estimated to take 36 months to complete.

[Una Due Tfc]

Whenever the new runway opens (and it's been talked about for 20 odd years now) expect the current 10/28 to close shortly after for resurfacing and a new taxiway layout to be built

[EI-A330-300]

Whenever the new runway opens (and it's been talked about for 20 odd years now) expect the current 10/28 to close shortly after for resurfacing and a new taxiway layout to be built

and possible extension to 3000m

[Una Due Tfc]

That would require butting heads with the Portmarnock crowd again, they might not bother if the new runway is the 3,600m they now want, only the heavies will require more than the 2,600m already available. The DAA might not consider it worth their while.

[EI-A330-300]

That would require butting heads with the Portmarnock crowd again, they might not bother if the new runway is the 3,600m they now want, only the heavies will require more than the 2,600m already available. The DAA might not consider it worth their while.

Current plans are for 3110m x 60m so not the 3600m and SNN retains longest. Suppose DUB need's to give them something to shout about

RY28 extension is 390m would be added and it would be 3,027m. Cost of 55 million and would require planning application, house buyout/insulation programme, 34/28 intersection re-profiled.

Not sure what the daa position is on this but they would of seriously considered if the cap was much higher for new one I think.

[Una Due Tfc]

When speaking to some of my colleagues in DUB last year they said they and the DAA were going to try ammend the proposal for 3,600m, whether that's still the position I'm not sure, but they believed there was scope to do this in the existing planning permission granted?

Also from speaking to pilots based in Dublin, most think widening 10/28 is more of an issue for them. They say they prefer 16 in gusty condions from 220-240 degrees because it's wider and therefore easier to recover from a gust below 50 feet, whereas on 10/28 that requires a go-around

[EI-A330-300]

When speaking to some of my colleagues in DUB last year they said they and the DAA were going to try ammend the proposal for 3,600m, whether that's still the position I'm not sure, but they believed there was scope to do this in the existing planning permission granted?

3,600m should be possible but it will boil down to the daa footing the bill for the extra length or trying to convenience regulator.

There will definitely be a new application to over turn usage or runways between 23.00-07.00. Can't remember exact limits but the even runway could not be used between 6.00-7.00 and movements between 23.00-07.00 were restricted to either current levels or not much more.

[PPRuNeUser0176]

EY

in various postings by EY they have said the reduction is because they will be down 4 aircraft between between Jan/June until 2 class Dreamliner's arrive for the route and 777 was used to minimize capacity reduction.

All four A340 leaving by end of year and there A350 replacment not arriving until 2017. They will receive a few 787 before June though.