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Old 15th Oct 2015, 19:48
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Any idea of the fares down to AGP, it could all get a little competitive at NCL...
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Old 16th Oct 2015, 14:41
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Somewhere new please???? Valencia? Seville?
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Old 16th Oct 2015, 14:48
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Seville?
Yes please, but I can't see it happening.
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Old 16th Oct 2015, 14:55
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Jet2 have tried Valencia - started Summer 2007.

Vueling Christmas flights have also been officially announced - presumably the prices are now a little more realistic?
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Old 16th Oct 2015, 21:33
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Yes Jet2 did try Valencia and others before they were pulled.

Think these were pulled as Jet2 moved toward the package holiday routes.
Many city break routes were tried also before easyjet moved onto the route and then both airlines dropped the route.

Lets hope Ryanair do pick up some of these routes in the years ahead but the model of ryanair is very different from jet2.

I remember Jet2 stating that they were pulling aircraft from both LBA and MAN when Ryanair were let in however that hasnt happen if anything more aircraft have been based.


Has anyone worked out the Jet2 summer programe with 7 based planes??
is there room for any more flights or new routes??
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Old 17th Oct 2015, 08:47
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Great news ref. Ryanair to Malaga. EasyJet and Jet2 have shafted most pax on this route this summer. Average return trip often in excess of £350 even into September and flights left within minutes of each other most days whereas it would make far more sense to have one morning and one evening flight.

Because of this, I used Ryanair LBA - AGP flight a couple of times and no problems. In my view, EasyJet didn't do themselves any favours either by dropping Sunday service.
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Old 17th Oct 2015, 18:04
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I see a lot of benefits to Ryanair service from Newcastle (on a sustainable basis)

They offer more, higher frequency, cheaper flights (ALC already up to 5 weekly and AGP starting at 4). To places like ALC, AGP and maybe PMI, FAO, TFS down the line it's definitely a good thing. It could work out as it might shake up LS/EZY and cause prices to fall. We might lose a few flights from them but that might be positive as well. i.e if EZY swapped x2 AGP flights for x2 flights to somewhere like Marrakech I'd see that as a definite positive. Ryanair also have a lot of potential to create growth, perhaps if they were to start flying somewhere like Marrakech, Warsaw, Riga etc.

However, what I would urge NCL to do, if I could, is to keep them away from areas they could cause damage, routes like Rome, Krakow, Prague, Pisa where Jet2 is established and FR could just completely blow them out of the water on. Also some holiday routes as TOM/TCX could be very vulnerable to loss of market share by FR. I could see bad things happening if FR were to start routes like Fuerteventura, Corfu, Rhodes, Kos etc. Quite big markets but ones where incumbents could easily lose out.

My wishlist for the near future off the top of my head would be Valencia, Madrid and Tenerife, maybe Chania and Lanzarote and then maybe Lisbon

I see that LS and EZY have pushed Air Malta off NCL-MLA for S16 though
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Old 17th Oct 2015, 22:27
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Ryanair growth

I wonder what easyjet will do as a reaction to Ryanair as they haven't put the whole summer season on yet!

I think they may react by adding flights rather than backing down like they did with jet2..

Easyjet at gatwick is full and they have to expand somewhere else now. Problem for easyjet not many aircraft on order for the next 12 months compared to Ryanair..

Ryanair needs to make money. Bucket and spade routes first then it will go after the city breaks. You maybe correct jet2 may pull out a few but I think Ryanair will grow these markets through cheaper prices as jet2 aren't cheap to these city breaks as they are the only ones flying to them

Let's see what happens over the next few months and years

Let's see if we get Milan and Oslo back first before any new routes
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Old 18th Oct 2015, 01:34
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I really do hope Easyjet respond with growth, and soon. You mention Oslo and Milan (or Moss and Bergamo to be more correct ) but I think we would be much better off seeing Easyjet tackle routes like Milan. I think they'd be better suited to new markets like Morocco, Sicily and Iceland as well.

I really hope FR stick to large, grown markets and brand new, safe markets for now, and not just push out the incumbents.

Losing LS service on city routes due to Ryanair would be bittersweet IMO, but I really don't think there's room on those routes for the two of them. With their fares I just don't think Jet2 could hold out. It would be a shame to lose Jet2's current catalogue of city routes

Interesting times ahead!
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Old 18th Oct 2015, 06:44
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NCL doesn't have a great track record when it comes to growing markets:

MJV - was served by U2 3X a week, LS came along, pax were given the choice of almost daily flights. U2 left the route, leaving a twice weekly summer only connection with LS. No doubt when there were two airlines on the route the prices would have fallen temporarily, but now? If put money on saying the prices are significantly higher now. A net gain for passengers?

Take MLA. KM and U2 served it for a good few years. LS come along, and history repeats itself with KM pulling the route. A net gain for passengers?

AGP/ALC: the new FR service likely won't grow the market. They will trash yields and chase others off the route. No big loss, until FR then cancel the route and given their previous record of chopping routes at NCL it is very likely. A net gain for passengers?

Let's just hope FR does this before Jet2, easyJet or any of the charters start pulling aircraft out.
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Old 18th Oct 2015, 07:05
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Good points from HMB - how do RYR grow the market? Where do the extra pax come from?
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Old 18th Oct 2015, 07:26
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If thesy can grow the market then that is great. Maybe those who couldn't afford to fly will now be given a chance to holiday and that is great. I'm all for that. But shifting capacity around and getting the same bums on different plane seats to me is neither here nor there.

In terms of other routes mentioned. I think given a few more years once Iceland becomes more mainstream then it could feature on the NCL route map. Even now it still requires a certain sense of adventure to go there but U2 have no problem filling the BRS and EDI flights but both of those will benefit from more inward tourism.

RAK was launched from BRS and instantly successful seemingly. It's even popular with the odd hen party believe it or not. Hot all year round. Cheap. Historic. Apart from a lack of beach it has it all and could make a good city destination. However myself, and a couple of friends won't go to countries we deem high risk. Not sure how typical this mindset is but if it's common then it could hit demand. And all it would take is one high profile incident and it could collapse over night.

I'm surprised DLM hasn't been tried by U2. Go there any day and there's an minimum 8+ Thomson aircraft on the deck. It must be hugely popular with Brits still and Turkey has long been a popular destination for Northeasterners. They need to make up their minds about easyJet Holidays. They need to push it a la Jet2Holidays as it seems very much an afterthought. If they pushed it then it could achieve a lot.
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Old 18th Oct 2015, 08:02
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Yes - RYR may grow the market through low prices, bringing in customers who don't fly now or persuading existing airport customers to fly more. But otherwise you're just shifting around existing customers.

Where NCL struggles compared to EDI or BRS is its in a poorer area and is more remote - making it more difficult to attract customers from other areas.

And talking of Morocco, is it more high risk than Turkey?
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Old 18th Oct 2015, 08:31
  #7014 (permalink)  
 
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You wouldn't catch me in neither if I'm honest. Same with Sharm. It's long over due a sea based attack.
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Old 18th Oct 2015, 08:32
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It wont happen but if TCX dropped some DLM , Let EZ on it and use them to send their PAX on then TCX could introduce 2 new destinations at least .

I was in Sharm as recent as last October and never felt at risk , I think London is more at risk than Sharm el Sheikh if im honest there is no such thing as due an attack although i know what you are saying
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Old 18th Oct 2015, 08:41
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Well, the people in Tunisia also felt safe until 38 of them ended up getting murdered. The high profile security in Sharm is a facade.
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Old 18th Oct 2015, 09:31
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Red face

Well, if you're going to avoid a destination because its 'due a terror attack' it may be due to an irrational phobia. Every tourists resort is arguably of similar risk and living your life in fear of an attack is simply pathetic and is bowing to the wants of the terrorists.

Would you never cross the road in-case you got hit? Would you never stand near the platform edge in-case you got pushed?

The terror threat across Europe and Africa is extreme, but if you want to pick a country to avoid it may be France who do have an issue with attacks, and not nations based on stereotypes.
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Old 18th Oct 2015, 09:42
  #7018 (permalink)  
 
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Would you never cross the road in-case you got hit?
No - but I would assess the risk before sallying forth, not all roads are the same and all destinations aren't.

Last edited by SWBKCB; 18th Oct 2015 at 11:41.
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Old 18th Oct 2015, 09:51
  #7019 (permalink)  
 
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You mention Oslo and Milan (or Moss and Bergamo to be more correct
Regarding Oslo and Norway as a whole, During the 80s and 90s Newcastle had long established Daily (ex Sat) services operated by Braathens B737 to Oslo, and a daily (ex Sat) B737 service to Bergen via Stavanger. until Braathens was absorbed fully into Scandanavian's (SAS) network.
I would like to see Norwegian (NAS), which originally took over some Braathens busy bee routes on Braathens behalf in the early days of NAS before Low cost operation model. return to provide a strong Nordic link which may lead to further expansion.
More operators can spread the risk, introduce new routes, and encourage competition.
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Old 18th Oct 2015, 11:29
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Statistics, not stereotypes are what I base by descisions on.

Tunisia I and II, Turkey, Luxor, Cairo, Kusadasi were all directly targeted at tourists. I have been on cruises that have stopped in these countries. I no longer get off and lounge round the pool in relative safety instead of risking an ambush like Tunisia I this year. Nothing to do with stereotypes. Many cruises have changed their intineraries accordingly due to threat.

I can't recall such attacks being targeted at Spanish or French or Greek resorts in recent times.

Crossing the road will always have risks. One can take steps to minimise risks by using a crossing or crossing the bridge or waiting for a break in the traffic, wearing a high via vest or waiting for lollipop lady. Fact is there is a risk, and the onus is on you to mitigate against them.
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