NEWCASTLE - 8

[G-TYNE]

I think you're looking at the above line for LGW which doesn't operate Saturdays. The LHR one shows 7 days per week and has done all day.

[Jamesair]

The other thing I noticed in the timetable was that there was no mention of the Isle of Man.....is this just an error?

[10 DME ARC]

I am sorry but I saw IOM and LHR Saturday ops????

[Jamesair]

How strange, you are correct of course. I printed a copy and the copy seems to have missed the last few lines on some pages, including IOM and some PMI flights...I was quoting from the copy. I have now checked it against the web page.

[Jamesair]

Ryanair seems to have a reduced presence at NCL this summer with Dublin reduced to 1 daily (probably because of Aer Lingus Regional) and Genoa 3 weekly, down from 4 last year.

[GAXLN]

Ryanair cuts appear to be quite small compared with some other UK airports. Dublin when I last looked was July and August only for once daily.

[GrahamK]

Gerona seems to still be 4 x weekly.

[EK77WNCL]

I wouldn't mind seeing FR leave the DUB route because it much further secures EI and hopefully we could see 21x weekly and maybe 22-23 weekly from them. Gerona is a popular route and I hope maybe they would consider starting some others, but who knows. I really think there is a business case for Eastern Europe/Poland etc from Newcastle and Ryanair/Wizzair are the people to do that. It just depends who gets there first IMO.

[POL1W]

FR Gerona

Gerona definitely dropped to 3 weekly Tue, Thu and Sat.

[Logohu]

I wouldn't mind seeing FR leave the DUB route because it much further secures EI and hopefully we could see 21x weekly and maybe 22-23 weekly from them.

Or an alternative viewpoint, the number of EI flights to NCL could stay the same, accompanied by a hefty increase in airfares to boost their bottom line. Be careful what you wish for....

I am sure the people who actually use the NCL to DUB route regularly would prefer to see the current competitive situation maintained.

[EK77WNCL]

Yeah, it's allright at the minute and I'm glad to see that FR hasn't done their usual and gone 3-4 daily with fares for £10 to get rid of EI. I must admit it all seems to have slotted together quite nicely as yet.


It may be a bit early yet, but now is about the time the monthly pax figures come out, I'd be interested to see how NCL has done for December and the whole of 2013. IIRC we were looking at about 4.6-4.7 million???

[GAXLN]

Well, with 12 month rolling numbers at the end of November at 4.405m, 4.6m is impossible. I would expect c5% growth for December given the weather was OK apart from the winds so that probably takes the annual figure to c4.415m which would be modest growth of just over 1% for the year. I think this year will be interesting as there look to be some ups and downs but hopefully overall growth of c4% could then see 4.6m achieved. Newcastle could then be experiencing about average UK regional airport growth levels in 2014. There will be some better, for sure, but also likely to be some who see a decline in 2014 in passenger numbers.

[SWBKCB]

G-AXLN - just wondering where you think a 4% increase is coming from if 2013 is about 1%. Most services seem to be saying about the same, so it can only be organic growth on the existing routes?

[GAXLN]

SWBKCB - I have rather simplistically taken October +1%, November +3% and December (my estimate) +5% and believe average growth of 4% in 2014 is possible if you consider some of the positives, e.g. extra easyjet volume on Gatwick, Aer Lingus on Dublin, bit more Thomson flying, bit less Thomas Cook capacity (321 i/l 757), still scope to grow Emirates through the year, economic growth boosting other scheduled volumes plus Brussels coming back, bit less jet2.com due A320 replaced by 737-300 but few more flights over season, bit less Ryanair, etc. +4% looks to be potentially achievable. That's not huge growth but better than some will experience I reckon. The important thing is that it is growth at a sustainable level. Can you see MME achieving this?

[Jamesair]

The December stats will be published by the CAA on the 15th January, then all will be revealed.

It's a pity they don't show which airline carried which amount of pax on shared routes, e.g. Dublin, Amsterdam and Alicante.

However we do have some December 2013 pax stats from the airport. Dec figures shown with Dec 2012 in brackets.

Domestic 92,090 (91,740)
I.T. 26,310 (26,434)
International 126,517 (115,285)
Other 4,333 (4,664)

TOTAL 249,250 (238,123)

Taking away the "other" figures the passenger increase is 4.91% in the comparable months.

If we are looking at scheduled services only, the comparable increase is 5.59%. with increases in both domestic and International pax.

[EK77WNCL]

How does it mean IT and other? That's always intrigued me, does that mean like passengers at Samsons and that? It sounds like a lot, but I don't know how many business jets they get in every day.

[GrahamK]

IT is charters ie TOM and TCX. Both of whom are offering substantially less seats from NCL than previous years

[JonnyH]

G-EZBT has gone tech for EZY tonight. It looks like they'll either be using the AC from BFS rotation later on or they'll be sending one up from LGW. Nice 4 hour delay to AMS either way!

EDIT: G-EZIF has came up from LGW. Don't know why they didn't just wait 20/30 mins for the returning BFS/BRS flights.

[Jamesair]

and Others, I would imagine includes such as football charters, ad hoc pax charters, business planes and anything which is not an Inclusive Tour (IT).

[EK77WNCL]

Thank you very much for the explanation, greatly appreciated.