NEWCASTLE - 8
Join Date: Jun 2005
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Skipness One Echo,
Is that a doubting tone I detect in your response? Doubt as much as you like but please do not waste your time doubting this fact. There is a market for a transatlantic operator from Newcastle - as there is for Emirates to Dubai and beyond. Fact. Whether the economic conditions including exchange rates are right for a launch at this moment in time is debateable but the market exists. I have seen the estimates but they are not available for sharing.
Is that a doubting tone I detect in your response? Doubt as much as you like but please do not waste your time doubting this fact. There is a market for a transatlantic operator from Newcastle - as there is for Emirates to Dubai and beyond. Fact. Whether the economic conditions including exchange rates are right for a launch at this moment in time is debateable but the market exists. I have seen the estimates but they are not available for sharing.
Join Date: May 2009
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When I last transited through NCL I was talking to a girl in the BA lounge (Swissport) who told me that the AA flight had been pretty solidly booked for 2 weeks when it was dropped and that other business reasons were at play as opposed to poor loads.
I don't see a carrier moving in unless we see some form of low cost expansion airline moving in or a major US business player sets up in North East and can support hub flights, alas with the current US market and the potential of a whole new Government in a years time, I'm not holding out.
Still...whats wrong with Jet2's luxurious seasonal Newark service?!
I don't see a carrier moving in unless we see some form of low cost expansion airline moving in or a major US business player sets up in North East and can support hub flights, alas with the current US market and the potential of a whole new Government in a years time, I'm not holding out.
Still...whats wrong with Jet2's luxurious seasonal Newark service?!
Join Date: Oct 2004
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oopps looks like ive caused a bit of a stir here!!
Thats the point i was trying to make before people from the north east have to travel to other hubs for the long haul flights even though the market is there. Not by choice of the passenger they would love to go direct!
Before EK started people had to travel through amsterdam, paris or heathrow...
I would of thought the US market from northeast would be bigger than dubai.
Im sure some of you will agree that AA sales were good but the fact that it took business away from BA/AA at LHR the flights were canx but also stopping CO lauching at NCL at the same time.
We all think that the airport is talking to the major airlines of america. AA,CO,DL,UA etc...
How about the smaller ones Jet Blue?? werent they in talks with STN a year ago or so about New York flights into STN but nothing happened because yet again AA started the flights there first before dropping STN again...
Looks like AA have a habit of setting up flights to stop others then dropping them..........
What do you think??
Thats the point i was trying to make before people from the north east have to travel to other hubs for the long haul flights even though the market is there. Not by choice of the passenger they would love to go direct!
Before EK started people had to travel through amsterdam, paris or heathrow...
I would of thought the US market from northeast would be bigger than dubai.
Im sure some of you will agree that AA sales were good but the fact that it took business away from BA/AA at LHR the flights were canx but also stopping CO lauching at NCL at the same time.
We all think that the airport is talking to the major airlines of america. AA,CO,DL,UA etc...
How about the smaller ones Jet Blue?? werent they in talks with STN a year ago or so about New York flights into STN but nothing happened because yet again AA started the flights there first before dropping STN again...
Looks like AA have a habit of setting up flights to stop others then dropping them..........
What do you think??
Join Date: May 2009
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I think jetblue would be wishful thinking, although they have reported a solid earnings increase of late. It doesn't even currently have a capable aircraft of making.
Jetblue makes a profit on doing what it does well, it won't rush to international expansion.
United Continental I don't see.
I think the current US market is too volatile for a risk, and Newcastle would be a risk. To an American exec the drive to Manchester or Edi or the transit to AMS or LHR is probably seen as not a big deal and a bit off putting
Jetblue makes a profit on doing what it does well, it won't rush to international expansion.
United Continental I don't see.
I think the current US market is too volatile for a risk, and Newcastle would be a risk. To an American exec the drive to Manchester or Edi or the transit to AMS or LHR is probably seen as not a big deal and a bit off putting
Join Date: Oct 2004
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Hubs
OK lets break this down into rough figures to see what we can come up with.
How many passengers travel per month to the hubs?
LHR
LGW
AMS
CDG
DUS
Out of these monthly figures roughly how many will be transfering onto connecting flights to the USA as a whole??
Then lets split these figures down to daily to see what figure it comes to.
That would then give us a rough guide of the size of aircraft would be needed to operate from NCL.
How many passengers travel per month to the hubs?
LHR
LGW
AMS
CDG
DUS
Out of these monthly figures roughly how many will be transfering onto connecting flights to the USA as a whole??
Then lets split these figures down to daily to see what figure it comes to.
That would then give us a rough guide of the size of aircraft would be needed to operate from NCL.
Join Date: Aug 2002
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You're assuming you'll get 100% of the available market, you won't. You'll need to add "willing to pay a premium to fly direct" as well. CO dropped BRS as too much FF was still using LHR and BHX has the same issue to this day. Add to that a lot will be Card holders in the "other" alliance then that's a realistic model.
Join Date: May 2004
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HH - I think you are missing the point with the US compared to EK to DXB. DXB is a hub and a destination. Look at the East Coast of the US and this is a lot more tricky. Most people going to the US aren't going to New York they are connecting to somewhere else. If you fly say via LHR you have lots of US options. If you go direct to US from Newcastle the options aren't great:
BOS has limited destinations / frequencies to other places
JFK is a good O&D market, but it has limited connections unless you transfer to LGA (that would be a real pain).
EWR generally limits connections to CO/UA
IAD generally limits you to UA / CO
etc.
Given the choice isn't it easier to make a same terminal connection in LHR, AMS or CDG?
To make a route like this you need a good supply of business class demand and cargo traffic. Does the North East have sufficient daily business demand in addition to holiday makers?
CB
BOS has limited destinations / frequencies to other places
JFK is a good O&D market, but it has limited connections unless you transfer to LGA (that would be a real pain).
EWR generally limits connections to CO/UA
IAD generally limits you to UA / CO
etc.
Given the choice isn't it easier to make a same terminal connection in LHR, AMS or CDG?
To make a route like this you need a good supply of business class demand and cargo traffic. Does the North East have sufficient daily business demand in addition to holiday makers?
CB
Join Date: Oct 2004
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I know the USA will be a little tricker but im still sure it could work.
With the point taken about EK as a place aswell as a hub anybody know how many passengers transfer onto onwards flights from dubai??
EK is about 12,000 a month how many transfer to another flight somewhere else?
Talking about another airline that looked at NCL a few years ago was PIA? they were chosing between NCL and LBA and LBA got the route.
LBA is close to MAN.
Didnt CO leave BRS due to them now operating from LHR?? if they were not operating from LHR im sure that they would still be at BRS today....
With the point taken about EK as a place aswell as a hub anybody know how many passengers transfer onto onwards flights from dubai??
EK is about 12,000 a month how many transfer to another flight somewhere else?
Talking about another airline that looked at NCL a few years ago was PIA? they were chosing between NCL and LBA and LBA got the route.
LBA is close to MAN.
Didnt CO leave BRS due to them now operating from LHR?? if they were not operating from LHR im sure that they would still be at BRS today....
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Didnt CO leave BRS due to them now operating from LHR?? if they were not operating from LHR im sure that they would still be at BRS today....
Let me ask, these estimates you have seen proving this market as "fact!", were they done by an independent expert with no link to NCL?
Join Date: Apr 2002
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Been a while since NYC reared it's ugly head 
Anyway, in th current environment, with APD, high fuel prices, nobody in their right mind is going to start NCL-NYC flights. It'll be at least 5 years before anyone even considers it, and even thats a long shot.
If the airport needs any routes, it should be looking at the likes of FRA,MUC and CPH, maybe getting BD ER4s ala the BRU route.
Anyhow, September provisional stats:
Gatwick +7%
Heathrow -6%
Brussels + 33%
Paris CDG -4% <--- When do CityJet start on this route?
Dusseldorf +4%
Dublin +6%
Amsterdam +9%
Dubai +2% as already said (84.2% loads based on an A332HD operating all month - back full, and front empty?)
Anyway, in th current environment, with APD, high fuel prices, nobody in their right mind is going to start NCL-NYC flights. It'll be at least 5 years before anyone even considers it, and even thats a long shot.
If the airport needs any routes, it should be looking at the likes of FRA,MUC and CPH, maybe getting BD ER4s ala the BRU route.
Anyhow, September provisional stats:
Gatwick +7%
Heathrow -6%
Brussels + 33%
Paris CDG -4% <--- When do CityJet start on this route?
Dusseldorf +4%
Dublin +6%
Amsterdam +9%
Dubai +2% as already said (84.2% loads based on an A332HD operating all month - back full, and front empty?)
Join Date: Oct 2006
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AA were selling well from Newcastle before they pulled the flights, and pulling in passengers very nicely.
I also dont believe we would be having this debate if CO had started first on the route but AA got onto the route first. As they could start the route 8 months before CO had been in discussions to start the route. If CO had been first on the route then I think we would have had a very successful NY route operating for the last few years.
Finally the Britsol example is totally different and should not be used to draw an conclusions as to how a Newcastle service would work.
I also dont believe we would be having this debate if CO had started first on the route but AA got onto the route first. As they could start the route 8 months before CO had been in discussions to start the route. If CO had been first on the route then I think we would have had a very successful NY route operating for the last few years.
Finally the Britsol example is totally different and should not be used to draw an conclusions as to how a Newcastle service would work.
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Most of these 'facts' are made up as they go along, wishful half-cocked thinking, with no inside information and no facts to back them up, little business knowledge and comparisons made with different type of flights to different parts of the world. 
If various airlines have looked and the demand is there why are there no flights? There are many reasons why we don't and won't have this route.
Prove it!
Explain!
If various airlines have looked and the demand is there why are there no flights? There are many reasons why we don't and won't have this route.
AA were selling well from Newcastle before they pulled the flights
Finally the Britsol example is totally different and should not be used to draw an conclusions as to how a Newcastle service would work.
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CentreFix25
Not half-cocked thinking.
ncleflights
I think you have hit the nail on the head with your observations.
Isn't it amazing how the subject of NCL-NYC flights on this forum stirs things up like a hornets nest? There just appear to be Believers or Knockers. Well, time to knock off, as I am a Believer!
Not half-cocked thinking.
ncleflights
I think you have hit the nail on the head with your observations.
Isn't it amazing how the subject of NCL-NYC flights on this forum stirs things up like a hornets nest? There just appear to be Believers or Knockers. Well, time to knock off, as I am a Believer!
Join Date: May 2004
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GLAXN - You're right there are believers and non believers. There are also people who work in the industry and there are spotters. Its fairly easy to figure out from the thread who is in which category. Please don't hold your breath waiting for a scheduled IATA seasonal or year round service.
Join Date: Jan 2006
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US Flights
I know it's not empirical, but just before AA pulled their proposed flights, I had a look at making a booking NCL -YYC. The transatlantic sector showed that I would have had the aircraft entirely to myself and the crew. That's hardly a good indicator that the flights were selling well !
More empirically, for all those comparing a possible Transatlantic with Dubai, don't forget the very high importance attached to freight revenues on the Dubai route. Is there any proven evidence to show that there is a similar demand for TA ex NCL ?
More empirically, for all those comparing a possible Transatlantic with Dubai, don't forget the very high importance attached to freight revenues on the Dubai route. Is there any proven evidence to show that there is a similar demand for TA ex NCL ?
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NYC?? Well I am a believer!! I am not a plane spotter either, thirty years in aviation! I do know the reasoning behind AA dropping the route!
I have said it before its a natural hub and destination in its self! How many destinations in North/South America would become one stop instead of two/three stops away!
I have said it before its a natural hub and destination in its self! How many destinations in North/South America would become one stop instead of two/three stops away!