BA/bmi

[scorpio88]

bmi is'nt bothering with the states for now, because of the bmed takeover...let all the other airlines have their goldrush to the states, we'll sit back, watch, and plan our tactics

[Count von Altibar]

Let's face it, the cards are in Sir Michael Bishop's hand. He holds the key to the future and will without a doubt have spoken with Willie Walsh about the future of bmi. BA didn't stand by and let bmi buy BMED without them sanctioning the sale, a deal was done which we're aware of now as it involved a it of 'horse trading' over LHR slots. My opinion is that we're up for sale soon and it's based on pretty much everything that I've seen and heard come from bmi to it's staff and the general press. It also happens to be the opinion of aviation analysts and the city boys. The airline is being 'talked up' with positive press releases and talk of new aircraft followed by not so public missives to the staff revealing huge backpeddling. The only new aircraft we're getting now are the already on order BMED ones.

bmi is approaching peak value. A large LHR slot portfolio, route licences to the BMEDistan countries that would have taken years to negotiate (secured in one fell swoop!) and importantly the beckoning open skies. Come the third runway these slots will devalue and so an exit from the stage by SMB seems likely in the not too distant future. Whoever the new owners are I sincerely hope that they look after the loyal staff during the transition.

Regards,

The Count

[SADDLER]

I agree,bmi are playing a shrewd game,at the end of the day they are still in buisness while a few others are not.

[bmibaby.com]

Considering the share of slots that Air France and Lufthansa hold at their respective hubs are still considerably larger than a merged BA/bmi presence at LHR, I can't see how the MMC would take issue with such a merger. Also, considering Belfast, Brussels and Dublin all would still have competition from another airline at LHR - and many more from the London area generally, this would be a good way of moving more slots out of shorthaul markets, in line with the government's own wishes. Admittedly MAN and the Scottish routes would be BA monopolies, but with competition to all other London airports, more people connecting via the continent, and more competitive rail travel - the market here is diminishing anyway. bmi bring to the table a very competitive package; an expansive slot portfolio, route allocations to some very oil rich countries and staff on much lower Ts & Cs, BA would do well to snap them up, but it's all in the hands of SMB. Regarding the subsidiaries, they could function stand alone, or equally snapped up.

[Dan Winterland]

What should have happened a long time ago is that BMI and Virgin should have got together. Merger, buyout or just codeshare would have worked. The combined route structure would have given BA a run for it's money. But with the egos of the respective CEOs locking horns, this was never going to happen.

Mind you, I bet Sir Richard's ears pricks up when he hears that the 51% may be for sale!

[GBALU53]

B.O.A.C. and B.E.A.

Could we se the revival out of all this if it does take place of B.O.A.C. and B.E.A.?
B.A. long haul would become B.O.A.C and European and Domestic with the BMI routes would come under B.E.A. just like to good old days nothing like turning the clock back on this one?
As the saying goes,what goes around comes around or something like that.
Some people at Duxford last Sunday would have seen the B.E.A. Vixcoung looking good in the B.E.A. colours would the European fleet look good in those colours?
We must not forget the VC10 at Duxford on B.O.A.C. nice to see that back on the long haul fleet under B.O.A.C.?

[ConstantFlyer]

B.O.A.C. and B.E.A.

What a great idea, GBALU53. I like it. I wonder if a BOAC transatlantic service from continental Europe would be better perceived than a BA one. And it might be nice to see the BEA Scottish, Channel, Northeast and Cambrian brands re-emerge (I wish!).

[Daza]

If any merger happens, (Im pretty sure the Monopolies and Mergers commision would not allow it anyway) you can wave goodbye to any regional flying and BMIBaby too. British Airways or London Airways are not interested in flying from the rest of Britain.
Daza

[OltonPete]

Another looming nightmare for BHX & MAN if SMB sells to BA?

Baby as a stand-alone airline (Management buy-out etc) might
struggle with the cash needed for fleet replacement a few years
down the line let alone dealing with the aggressive competition
without daddy looking after you.

This leaves a sale or like bacon, a giveaway (not even mentioning ).
They must have some sale value?


JET2 would fit with base and fleet commonality (only MAN duplicated)
and with the number of aircraft could probably become a major
player in the regions behind EZY & FR but again an ageing fleet.

Easy would be my personal preference but can't see them wanting
their own 733's back. It would give them great UK coverage
although some bases would be close together (I know LUT & STN
are close but a tad more pax to choose from).

With BMI, I assumed that delaying the new A330's + no LHR transatlantic in 2008 = sale.

Lets hope that the cunning plan (if there is one) comes out in the open
soon.

Pete

[tristar500]

Makes a lot of sense for BA to take ownership of bmi - from a business and logistical point of view.

My reasoning is as follows:
bmi operate an all Airbus fleet. The A319/A320/A321/A330 aircraft could easily fit into BAs Airbus fleet.

With LGW 'rumoured' to be going Airbus within the next year or so, then the bmi A319s could replace the B737 fleet topped up with some of the BA A319s from LHR.

The bmi A330s could replace BAs B777 aircraft at LGW. Cabin crew already do 'mixed fleet' duties, and the flightdeck could also do the same.
The bmi A320/A321s (as well as the BMED aircraft) would take the place of BA A319s sent to LGW.

The slots gained from the regions, could then be used for other routes out of LHR or put up for sale.

With regards to bmibaby and bmi regional, who knows. BA didnt want their own regional airline. bmibaby might look attractive to companies already operating B737 aircraft on a low-cost routes. bmiregional could attract interest from Eastern Airways, a management buyout or another European airline.

Either way, its bound to happen sooner rather than later with Open Skies looming. I think there will be more 'mergers' as such in the comming 12-18 months.

[Count von Altibar]

European consolidation is coming let's face it. I hope they just get on with it so we know roughly what the future holds...

[Flightrider]

Don't buy the airline (which would have competition implications) - just buy the Heathrow slots and sell bmi all of the Gatwick slots? It would surely be easier. bmi keeps flying, just does so from Gatwick. BA would end up paying probably much the same amount for the Heathrow slots as it would for the whole company, and avoids any Takeover Panel issues in the process. Smart way around the problem.

[brian_dromey]

I dont think if BA were to buy out BD, the MMC could just look at BA and how many slots it would gain. The trend is for alliance partners to consolidate, this would leave oneworld in a very dominant position in the LON region. skyTeam would fare well with CDG & AMS having good service from LHR & LCY, and skyTeam is arguably the srongest alliance in the regions, with the AMS connections, Star, on the other hand would be weak in LON and almost non existant outside of MAN.

From a compeditive standpoint LH getting control of BD is the best option, and could provide BA with a very tough rival, but VS is likely to have more to fear from LH than BA, at least initially.

I still see VS as the joker in the deck, or more precicely the 49% that SQ is looking to sell. Where will that end up? Perhaps LH would hop on that instead and leave BD to BA, or LH might gobble both... we've all said a VS/BD merger makes sense, but if it were financed and managed by LH, I think it could be a success.

[Ian Brooks]

That would make it very interesting for Manchester with VS/BD/LH/SK all being strong there, cut out the LHR flights sell the slots at LHR and bring some other
connecting flights from Star alliance in Europe/Asia into MAN and you have a very good hub operation

Ian

[Count von Altibar]

I reckon that Virgin are in the most uncertain position come open skies. You can't rule-out Sir Dickie to pull something out of the hat in the near future though. After all, it was quoted in a recent interview where he said he had 'given up on Michael' and dispatched his senior VA executives to Frankfurt to talk with the Lufty big brass. It's uncertain times but one we all can be certain of in aviation is change.

PS - check-out the timesonline articles from the 21st Oct'07, sheds a bit more speculation on the goings-on.

[akerosid]

Unless there are some protections put in place, you can pretty much say goodbye to domestics if BA takes over BMI; the BAA is now looking to have the third runway increased in length to the full 12,000' or so, which doesn't bode well either.

From a JER perspective, would certainly not welcome BA takeover of BD; lost LHR flights in 2000 (BA), only restored this year by BD! Would much rather see BD takeover by LH.

[acbus1]

I hope to god they buy bmi. Someone, anyone.

An understandable reaction, but some takeovers would result in far more bmi staff bloodshed than others.

A BA buyout would result in the least carnage of any other option. SFO promotions would suffer, but the overall benefit for staff could be potentially very good.

Virgin would be very messy for bmi staff. Lufty would be a massacre, IMHO!

As for baby and the other stragglers, well, you didn't actually expect a long term career in the first place, did you? Don't expect any offers from Easy or the likes. It's not as if there's anything actually worth buying, is it!

Don't expect MB to lose any sleep over staff casualty rates, though. Survival of the brand name, preservation of his image (has he really got one though?) and lovelleeeeee moneeeeee would no doubt be the main priorities.

Assuming that this whole rumour has any basis in the first place. It would explain all the recent back pedalling (retreat) from the "brave new world" they were harping on about a short while ago. Of course, fear of real competition in the big bad world of long haul would be another very plausible explanation.

[BCALBOY]

What makes you think BMI domestic links will be more secure if somebody other than BA buys BMI ? Ithink LH and its Alliance partners or VS will
have priorities other than LHR/MME or LHR/JER if they get hold of those
slots.

If BA get hold of BMI they could consolidate with their own domestic
services to give a good frequency e.g on LHR/EDI instaed of 8 BD / 10 BA , 12 or 13 BA. These routes have been shrinking anyway due to
increased competition fm other LON airports , LCCs etc and this will
probably continue especially if Govt continues with its Green Taxes which
have dis-proportionate affect on Domestics.

On the other hand if BMI does go to LH or VS , BA may be forced to reduce its Domestics to provide slots to shore up other markets .
You could end up with the scenario where VS or LH acquire BD and
abandon most domestics and BA then does the same and end up
with virtually no Domestics at LHR.

[Skintman]

I still think that a Virgin/BMi merger/takeover would be best.

BMI primarily short/med haul, Virgin longhaul. Nice fit.

BA takeover would be a consolidation excercise.

It's all down to Sir Bish at the end of the day, it's his toy.

[Max Angle]

Survival of the brand name,

Ha Ha, what brand is that exactly? Almost unknown in the South East of England despite flying from LHR for 20 years, a profile that is so low that most of us wonder if we have a marketing budget at all. I am sure the high ups at Donington Hall think they are running a big high profile operation but the reality is that the bmi name and brand mean NOTHING AT ALL to almost anyone within 30-40 miles of LHR. Pretty sad state of affairs for the Chairman when the majority of your staff want you to sell the company and walk away from it.